a final thought here what of the recycling business that's a quick part of what you do quick answer. >> yes, that's part of what we do we collect and process a large part of our raw material needs that gives us a stable cost structure and makes sure our melt shops are always operating. >> barbara, continued good luck. and thank you for watching "power lunch.." >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm morgan brennan on the floor of the stock exchange, you can see that stock is up helping drive tech higher, giving other software names a boost as well we'll tell you why. and good afternoon i'm wilfred frost. energy now the top performing sectors, and some british analyst research helping lift

big-cap tech for more perspective on iran, we have two big interviews. the broader markets, and a special intra-day come back. the dow is still just negative, but we are we have off the lows. what's your take today >> not only did we not go down as many as some thought on friday, but after we dipped this morning and came back, you know, it's a very powerful first few days in terms of flows, but we'll keep a close eye on it >> 2020 forecast, but first let's focus in on the big story.

middle east tensions continue to rise mike santoli has hits market dashboard bob, let's start with you. the markets are tell us the long-term impact limited so far. it's not over yet. today same situation, but different trading. late in the day we faded, but not today. what moved everything around amazon, facebook, microsoft flattish, but down on the day. when you gelt those stock moves, curiously finally energy stocks.

even with oil relatively muted, nice for some names. guys, back to you. let's send it over to mike san tolli. mike >> calling this one avoiding the 1% one of the reasons the resilience is perhaps slightly surprising is not because the market should otherwise by focusing on the downside risk, but because we've gone a long stretch, that's one of longer stretching of some time before you had that pretty good market drop sometimes this doesn't matter. this was over 100 days, and boy, do you see it in 2017, the market just kept going higher and scaling that that happened in time when we did in fact get a sharp correction

there's no magic number here in fact, one interpretation that i might have is a lot of these tensions are keeping the market from going into this headlong upside momentum phase. so maybe flat is the new down, at least for this phase of january, guys. >> if we think about the last year or so, have there been many more 1% up days. >> mike, thanks very much. see you shortly. tensions building in the middle east, as iran vows to retaliation after last week's killing of qassem soleimani. state-run television said the nation would no longer respect the enrichment restrictions.

president trump tweeting today, iran will never are a nuclear weapon let's get to matt bradley in northern israel for more on the rising tensions in the region. matt, what is the latest there oy for the region? >> reporter: well, i'm in about maybe less than a mile away from some of the nearest hezbollah points that are actually quite armed form this is a very hostile border it's right where the lightser, but hezbollah has said they are going to be attacking american targets, even though iran has designated israel, tel aviv and haifa as major targets, it seems like hezbollah might not necessarily be targeting here in israel and the israeli cabinet heard the same thing, that the threat didn't seem to be imminent what is really worrying people here is the news you just mentioned, iran would basically

be scrapping that jcpoa, the 2015 nuclear he agreement and would go back to producing nuclear fuel benjamin netanyahu has been long opposed to this deal, but it could lead to action in iran trying to break out, as they say, atrying to reach nuclear ability. that would be hugely destabilizing. even the act of saying they're no longer going to be obeying this deal, means it could be a at this time fo at that time, where one tries to attack the other. that could be in parallel to the conflict no, the real irony is qassem soleimani, he opposed that nuclear deal up to the end in death, it seems he got his wish >> matt bradley from israel, thanks for bringing us the later. a eurasia group out with its

outlook saying the conflict is a risk, but the scale of threat could be over-exaggerated joining us is cliff kupchan. thank you for joining us today i want to get your thoughts a everything unfolding in recent days, and what it means in terms of growing risk of possible escalation within the region >> well, the reason we are somewhat less concerned than consensus is structural factors. donald trump didn't line foreign ventures ran yays know if there's a major war, they're going to lose it. however, i do expect iran to hit back and hit back hard i expect them to hassle shipping in the straits, and i think there's a funeral going on in iran when they get around to retolerating, i think we'll see markets much jumpier than today. >> what does retaliation look

like, in your view we've had folks who have said might be in the cyberrealm is that your sense or a proxy conflict? >> i kind of say yes to both i don't think in my own view they're terribly likely to hit back in iraq iraq is going iran's way now they have the wind at that bare. i any our allies are upably quite nervous. and they're really good at cyber. the russians have taught them most of what they know, and the russians invented this game. i think we'll see some of all of that, and i think we're in for a rough year even though you said either sigh doesn't want or seeks a war, what percent of chance do you put on one emerging by

accident as retal a's and potential escalations unfold >> friday high about 35%, 40% right now we have the worst-case scenario where both sides are really, really angry you put anger on top of miscalculation and a lot of hardware around the same kind of place. the persian gulf is narrow you have iranian speedboats, tankers going through. something could really go wrong. it's a really dangerous time right now. >> why hasn't this pulled the market back more significantly do you expect that it will in the weeks lead >> for starters i'm not sure they're looking at a 35% 40% probability of war i do take that point of view, cliff is actually right. if the market smarts to smell that, the market will go down more it's behaved so well given what

we have thrown at them. >> i wonger londer term if everybody you think transpired, including, by the way, within iraq itself, makes it more or less likely that the u.s. finally begins to start exiting the region >> i think that the u.s. is very close to persona nongrata in iraq i don't think we're really on the verge of exiting the region, there are major bases in bahrain, qatar the u.s. is the backbone of gulf security that won't change soon what i do think is that president trump will bring u.s. troops that are exposed to harm's way he'll get them out of harm 'way sooner rather than later that would be a tectonic shift we wouldn't be a major player in the middle east for the first time in decades.

focusing shift, the number one risk is in fact a domestic one it's politics-based, whether that's impeachment or election talk us through why there's such a big domestic politics risk >> there's a big risk. we're going into an election right after an impeachment that's unprecedented it's likely there will be charge of impropriety in the campaign if it's a close election, there will be charges of irregularity coming from both sides it will be a hard country to govern if the next president lacks authority for some period of time. i put an exclamation point on that this battle with iran just started. i think it will go on this we're. if this country comes off an election would youed, we will not be prepared to go toe to toe about a dangerous country. that's our risk. changing focus, one of the

others that took out was your view on china, that people will bubble on for quite some time, though perhaps not escalate themselves inch the major risk with china is that the two sides are decoupling their economies it's one of the biggest changes, undoing globalization that we have ever seen it's not just the trump administration or the xi jinping administration responding. china is trying to decouple from the u.s., that had bad for supply chains, bad for transaction costs, and it's going to be a very damaging and expensive separation it's going to be a very expensive divorce. cliff, thank you for joining us. >> see you up next, we'll look at why so many retail investors have been pulling back on some of fang names >> plus a pay raid of analyst speaking out on apple today. what investors need to go from, get this, the seven notes

hitting the street "closing bell" will be right back back.

welcome back

the egg producer cal-maine citing challenging conditions. you can see the stock is down almost 10% salesforce hitting aball-time high rbc up2k3wr5iding the company saying it sees strong growth over the next year retail investor movement reached the highest points in 14 months, to increase exposure as markets hill all-time highs last month. here to break it down is j.j., at td aamerica trade good to see you, as always >> during the month of december, was it increasing risk exposure? >> well, it was increasing risk exposure, no doubt about it, but it's not crazy the exposure went up about a

little over 7 1/4% they were buying etf funds, and they were buying mutual funds, and etfs that were more general, as well as fixed income still. i think people are like retail is running in or out they've been kind of nervous or sedated, but still continuing to buy fixed income tells me people are not running into this rally by any stretch of the imagination. a couple interesting things. if i look at the sell side of what our clients did last month, they started with stocks that had one thing in common. that was 52-week highs you look at things lie citigroup was one of the stocks. they sold facebook, alibaba. and then they sold netflix, and look at the top buys, nine

months in a row our clients have been buyers of disney. the buying of disney is somebody maybe about the streaming wars also. >> all year long, the resiliency of boeing, the fact that your client has been buying into boeing and i think sometimes people forget that boeing was up 1% it doesn't sound amazing with the year they said, but i think it's amazing with the headwinds they were facing our millennial clients acted like old people. what i mean by that two of the top fives not top five by overall population exxon mobil and at&t they were buyers of hoover, which maybe makes sense. i think it comes down to the fact they're not as interested in buying fixed income, but this

is a synthetic way for them to still be in the market, and there's nervousness they may lose if it's income in fixed income. >> go back to the headline in terms of no real profit taking is that a fair position in your eyes >> absolutely. while it's not real aggressive there is an alternative and fear of missing out an update, i better get some a down day here's my chance they just keep investing. >> what do you think of the aspect of buying a bit of the older media selling the netflix, similarly going into some of these energy names, the unloved names, as it were. >> i'm not going to change, i'm going to bottom fish a lot of millennial investors, so it may be their first time.

i heard my parents talking about telephone, exxon safe, quote/unquote. >> it's interesting to do that millennial net-sold tesla. if you look earlier this year there were buyers of tesla and to your point about taking profits, one of the interesting things for the entire year was apple was the number within sold stock. people say retail missed out it's still the number one held stock, so to see people taking profits on the way up, taking some profits is not a bad thing along the way. too often people have been too much all in or all out great to see you, as always. >> thanks, guys. we have 40 minutes before the bell, and right now the dow is hoveringaround a flightline the s&p is slightly higher

after the break, the word on the street which beaten-down retail stock is getting an upgrade. later, retired general wesley clark tells us whether hi believes tensions can be resolved without further escalation we're back in a few minutes. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ uh, "fifteen minutes could save you 15%ain? or more on car insurance." i think we're gonna swap over to "over seventy-five years of savings and service." what, we're just gonna swap over? yep. pump the breaks on this, swap it over to that. pump the breaks, and, uh, swap over?

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they need to up that i had price targets to catch up with apple a new $300 price target, deutsche banks has a hold upping their target, and needham taking it all the way up to 350, downgradie ining from strong buo buy. deutsche banks say they're cautious on the outlook, say citi's up side is limited after a big rally in 2019, but goldman adding to the conviction buy. unless he -- and argues changes to the digital marketing loyalty and merchandising,

driving sales growth of wjn up about 2.3% on the citi note -- >> i knew you were going for that one first. >> fair enough >> the thing that stands out to me is the -- only see 10% up si side. >> that does highlight how much up side is left in these names, necessary short term at least. >> on the citi, i'm with you, i think the banks are still interesting, they're still cheap, will perform at least as well as the market assuming the economy is okay, which i think it is. on apple, take a little money

off the table is just fine donnell lose your position, but take a few profits it's catch-up game, as opposed to you should -- >> that's what it is i'm willing to pay a higher p.e., if i can't change my "e" i have to get a difficult -- >> and it goes back to still a play in the market. >> it is. we have 34 minutes left on the session. at the moment we're in positive territory. the dow is -- it was as low as 216 at the open, and an impressive intraday turnaround coming up, we will break down the charts and why stocks may still look undervalued. plus mcdonald's new ceo is planning to reverse the party culture.

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with just 30 minutes left to go, investors still watching tensions in the middle east. energy now the top-performing sector and some bullish analyst research is help lift big-tech names as well. now it's time for an update with sue. here's what's happening this hour iraq's caretaker prime minister meeting with the u.s. ambassador to iraq. he says the u.s. must also work with iraq to bring about the withdrawal of american troops from iraqi soil. antonio gutierrez comments

on the conflict in the middle east >> my message is simple and clear, exercise maximum restraint, retart dialogue renew international -- let's not forget the terrible suffering caused by war. a man who was on the passenger on a bus over the weekend shot video in the immediate aftermath of the crash. five peoples were killed includes a bus driver, a 9-year-old girl and two u.p.s. employees. an investigation is under way. wilf, back to you. >> see you next hour let's get over to mike for the second installment of today's dashboard.

>> i'm seeing what i call a crucial divide this is -- the as the inverse of the p.e., and this is on a trailing basis. and the cash yield, so essential what an investor in the s&p is getting in the form of different so what you really see here is the cash yield, the corporate bond yield, and trailing earnings yield are all clustered in the same zone. >> that went -- and they've been going in lockstep for most of this bull market, and suggests that equities are most le relative to what you get in cash, both from corporate bonds and from equities.

that's sort of the argument against the idea we have a super overvalued market. we're in a very slow growth high-risk environment, perhaps that's the case, but boy, i would also point out look at what you could lock in in the late '90s that's not what we have now >> do you think -- >> no, i don't think individual investors do, but i think somehow in the aggregate, in the market's wisdom, that's essential how equities get priced i agree with you on the premise that, no, nobody is basically saying they're buying back a bunch of stock therefore my invest is worth more i don't think that's true, but i think as a class equities tend tore pulled by that gravity.

>> mike, thank you >> bob, your thoughts on this chart? >> i think it's telling us that both stocks and bonds are kind of expensive i've got this cash purposing a -- so let me go buy a stock with a higher yield in treasury bond >> keeping things going in the short time, at least. 26 minutes before the bell the s&p is higher, up about 0.1% the nasdaq up, and russell 2000 also higher. bob's vision for 2020, why this could be the year of the active investor. and a small cap going -- but

it's rallying today 22%, details on its new partnership straight ahead, on "closing bell. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ don't get mad. get e*trade, dawg.

we've got just about 22 minutes left to go take a look at the closing bell. on top the major averages, energy is the biggest sector leader today pioneer national resources bob dole has just published his tom predictions. make get a little bert let's -- what does that mean for

the fed? >> one of our predictions is inflation and interest rates move up a bit. know at the fed left >> it does seem like an emerging theme, they were at they multidecade lows, you can expect that to continue. >> 50-year low, as a portfolio manager, we talk to ceos all the time their complaint is i can't find workers. a year ago it was i could find skilled workers. now they have to pluck them amp from somebody else, which means they have to raise the wages i think that definitely has a bit of a nick on profit margins. >> i get earnings growth will be more important

we're at five or six if p.e.s aren't going anyway, which has been negative for four or five months, it probably will continue >> the coal war continues? >> we know the. >> but the two biggest most powerful economies in the world will fight to see who can grow the fasters. let's hope the world's war stays cold and doesn't become hot. inside the u.s. there's all kinds of cross-currents. millennial thinking socialism is better that capitalism suicide -- you know life expectancy that is fallen three

years in a row there's stuff going on that's not real healthy suicide rate is up a bunch thoughtism, drug deaths, et cetera, et cetera. is now the time to put some money to work snowe. >> we think so some people say they've got coal that for ten years in a row. we suck coupled last year, but we're putting it up there again between the valuation differential and some catalyst, it has been ton an improved economic growth pattern. if cyclicals do better, that tends to hit more than the u.s., because the u.s. is the most defensive market on the planet, as you know. >> there's some of your predictions for 2020 we'll see how they all play out. >> thank you. in the meantime we have less than 19 minutes before the bell. here is where we stand the dow is in the green, but

keep in mind that was after being down more than 216 points at the lows today. the s&p and nasdaq are higher as well this is the last commercial we will taye before the cse we will bring you uninterrupted coverage when we take you inside "the market zone." that's up next - [spokesman] if you've tried college but never finished, (group cheering) snhu lets you transfer up to 90 credits toward you bachelor's degree. - [woman] it doesn't matter how old you are, you can do it, you can finish. - [spokesman] finish your degree at snhu.edu

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trading day. we have bob doll here as well, as we stand, we're 11 points on the dow, well off the session lows, with the dow down over 200 point, the s&p is up 0.2%. let's look at defense stocks morgan, you have that story for us >> huntington angle with a new 52-week high , all day overall for now, at least. lockheed one of the worst performers today though, only down fractionally, as we do head into the close about 0.3 of a%.

that some of these names were some of the biggest gainers. >> up significantly and in the short term >> i think there's an expectation now because of the geopolitical landscape that you continue to see that number increase going into 2021 there had been an expectation that expense budgets were expected to flatline we'll see how it plays out, though >> geopolitical events that cause the spikes in the defense stocks are usually times to lighten up a bit they've got, as you pointed out, great performers the defense budget can always move up a bunch, but there's been a move up recently. another sector affected,

seema mody mass a look at the bigger mover. >> oil has lost nearly all of its gains breaking about $70 a barrel, yet central stocks remained -- objection denial petroleum, all up around 3% or mott, as the street trying to assess how much higher oil prices can go in here. one energy giant overseas, not participating is saudi aramco went public back in early december the stock hitting a fresh low today. since its ipo. saudi aramco is down 11% on the continued middle east tensions wolf, back to you. >> thanks, mike. interesting transition today oil softened during the session. not sure if it's a direct like for like -- >> i think both with defense stocks moderating their move,

oil coming down, now gold is up, but in theory it's getting stretched. it seems like the reflex on last thursday's news, that reflex response is moderating a bit when it comes to the exploration stocks, though, new york american focused. >> bingo, so sure, we might have some interruptions, but here we have higher prices and continuing to pump in north ameri america, and there's an expectation if you see sustained higher prices, that the u.s. producers could potential be the biggest beneficiary. >> no question about it. the u.s. -- remember the days when oil went up, the u.s. got a cold or pneumonia. not anymore, because we're producing so much oil, there's a lot of positives when oil prices go up.

>> sure enough well, another group that has moved because of energy prices today is transports. on pace for the worst day in over a month frank has that story for us. >> concerns about freight recession, with dow transports on pace to, today j.b. hunt falling more than 2% after a bernstein downgrade on concerns of lower than expected shipping container volume those fears hitsing the entire sector some falling more than a percent. up through november 2019, containers felt nearly 4%. coming off straight 12th straight months of declines. frank holland, thank you you know how i like to talk about transports. >> i do. >> currently as we get ready to go into the close, they're the

only average that's in the red right now. this freight recession has been going on for a while do you think there's going to be a turnaround >> hit very hard it's tough to say. yes, a freight kind of a renaissance there would be a huge help. i do think that it's going to be tough unless you get reassurance that we have a reacceleration in the domestic economy as well so freight volumes plus more certainly about how the u.s. is doing, i think it could worked, but it seems like the group has been stuck in the aggregate. >> whether it's the transports or the broader market, to the point it seems that we'll likely see phase 1 signed this month. when we see that, do you think the market rallies significant

ly. >> i plan through the airlines, where you have capacity utilization pretty high, pricing reasonably firm. i think they can be winners. >> a lot of these are basically -- do you think there's a weaker dollar? >> yes, yes, yes i think you can see a top that's been made, but i think it's going to be week during -- i think you're finally see the signs. deficits, that are growing all four of the major

indices in pot territory moving on news it's selling its real state courtney reagan that is ha story. >> this is part of the lease-back strategy that is part of a bigger valuation so they sold real state to oak street capital for $250 million they're going to lease back that space instead of owning it then the proceeds can go towards paying down the debt, buybacks and other ways of funding this turnaround this also follows the fires of six executives by relatively new ceo, as he looks at the company and trying to firm things up, make it stronger going forward bed bath & beyond is still evaluating its assets and brand, and also buy buy baby, and one

kings lane and others, back over to you >> courtney, thank you very much a news alert on juul. >> more shake-up the company announcing it will move the cfo to the new loyal of chief transformation officer he will lead the transformation effort he became the ceo back in october, following the make schickup when the ceo stepped down juul at the center of the vaping crisis the company taking many of the flavor pods off the market to ease the pressure from regulators, again juul moving the ceo to chief transformation office >> frank holland, thank you. mike santoli, i feel like there's two names of privately health companies that we talk about as if they were public we work at one, the other is

juul >> also those faison those that do, have implications for them as well. you know, in this case, over lip it's a massive regulatory gray area that they found themselves on the wrong side of thimplts not transformational. it's not like a new appointee was being fired, just a shuffling. >> speaking of company that is have gone public recently, rallying onna new of a partnership with walmart >> shares jumping over 25%, after announce ago deal to sell some of is products at walmart, both in store and online known for the clear plastic teeth white ner, will sell a toothbrush and whitening system, and an ultra-sonic uv cleaner, this was smile direct club's foray into consumers products.

tooth aligners are not on the list of products that will be sold at walmart, at least not for now. back to you. but clearly off a low level. >> and quickly after becoming public, became a very popular short. people thought the business model just didn't work so it seems to be more of a pivot, using the brand name to sell thilgs that are outside that direct competition with dentists >> is this big, bob? shares are at $10. ipo price was 23. >> that's the point. how many ipos did we get last year that were not making much money, and they came at some crazy price. i would scratch my head each

times. they had big move off the ipo price, and then -- i think there's a lot tore prov be prov these companies. >> internally it was matched in terms of what the indexes did. and now advances pretty easily outpacing decliners at the moment just a look within tech. this is get a lot of attention software verse semis, this is a six-month chart. you see how software has vastly underperformed semis, and stocks like saleforce needing software to the up side. and then the volatility index not doing a whole lot today. did get above 14 1/2 it is higher than you would otherwise expect given how calm the markets are. there is a persistent kind of hedging instinct it seems like own a bunch of

stocks to ride the rally, but also own protection on the down side at least slightly more juice. >> still under 14. >> about you if you look at where it ought to be, so to speak, given the realized volatility of the market, it could are it should be a couple points lower >> all right we have two minutes left to go aric has a check on bonds. the interest complex was well behaved we're looking at an intraday of 10s, actually traded 181 at 180 we're up a basis point. the whole curve sold off a bit no flight to safety, all yields higher, we're hovering in the zone from early december, and finally the dollar index, not a big safe harbor. if you look at a three-dame since thursday ace iranian situation, basically it's not much lower

bett bertha, it's a i have interesting thing. >> and a lot of it coming from communications names alphabet, facebook within 3% now of its all-time high we have spoken to investments as the week of ces tech outperforms. semis are usually the biggest winners during that week, about you they're starting off the week to the down side. it is the start of a new year for a lot of people starting resolutions, those dieting firms are doing well the parent of south beach diet both -- ww both are higher and bertha, more than just apple and google moving things today. we had a nice run in the bank stocks jpmorgan also closed at the highs of the other day that was the other big winner. a shoutout to general electric,

$11 on december 31st, now over $12. a new high for ge. there's a lot of interesting in the company. there's the closing bell, and $2 billion buy program pushing the dow jones industrial average, and s&p 500 to the highs of the day, both in positive territory if you're just joining u. welcome into "closing bell." >> and i'm in for sarah eisen. also with mike santoli. pretty much at the session highs as well. nasdaq up more than 0-15%. the dow we started down over 200

points materials and financials were the worst performing. joining us to talk about the market day, alicious contrale vine, and bob doll, chief strategist is with us as well. obviously it tells you there have been new year flowing when we closed on thursday, before we had the incident in iraq, the attack on the iranian military leader, it seemed as if the market just wasn't going to pay attention that it was over-bought. we got a bit of a step-back after the attacks, and it's almost as if it released a pressure valve i don't president to say it's done, it's not done at all you're still contending with a market that's come a long way in a short distance of time, and there's a lot of ingredients

that might indicate a shake jute in january >> to that point, alisha, does that suggest to you this market is prepared to go higher. >> we think the market will be higher, but we see some softness in the first quarter, whether it's political risk or frankly domestic political issues here, related to the primaries we think that could be an excuse for the market to come in a bit, but ultimately we see it as a pretty positive year. >> bob, what do you think about the u.s. election situation. will that actually come in and affect the markets >> i i think so. typically when we get thes he opolitical issue, the incumbents gets a bit of a boost. we'll see if that happens or not. i think the big issue we haven't

mentioned is earnings. pretty soon we'll very fourth quarter earnings, and so we'll have to watch that very carefully and see what companies say. >> tensions are rising eamon javers is in washington with the latest >> that's where we were the president responding with threats to the iranians that he has targets celebritied and ready to go if they respond. the president issuing several warnings over twitter and responding that they are no longer going to abide by a key tenet of the nuclear deal, the president tweeting this earlier today saying iran will never have a nuclear weapon. that's kind of where the play stands as of right now it's been very quiet here at the white house.

the president has remained behind closed doors, holding a number of private events i'm told he's getting briefings, he held an event giving credentials to ambassadors >> eamon, thanks very much for that >> the truth of the matter is the u.s. and iran has beenin conflict for years essentially the administration has not wanted to be involved and signaled a desire to get out of the middle east u you can't wind of with an yoef shoot. i think perhaps the latest reaction is a tactical move that may not have an end game well throat out here. having said that, the world is a

dangerous place. the world has always been a dangerous place. right now the equity market today is signaling expect some tension, but ultimately it will be okay. in some ways, the gains from 2020 we think were pulled in a bit. we like overseas markets, the european markets, because they're way under valued not just in the last year, but compared to that ten-year average they're undervalued. if you think the trade deal will help the cyclical sectors at all, it would be much better for emerging markets in terms of the real impact. >> mike, to the iran tensions, if things do escalate significantly, which of course we all hope is not the case, once you get through the initial shot of that, history would say that markets can still -- >> at this point what

specifically ought the equity market be pricing in we just don't have an answer to that, right? oil prices have not gone above a threshold, it's not as if you see interruption, you know, of trade flowing oar anything like that psychologically, it would obviously have an impact investors could use in as an excuse to trim, about you when i look at the fang stocks, except for analysts raising price targets, it shows you that there's a chaste aspect to what's going on, fresh new money being put in the obvious places. that's not sustainable, but it's holding the markets together. >> bob, your thoughts? i hate to say that, but there's three of us who are kind of cautious so many chase it, the wall of worry and all that stuff

i'm in the camp, but a little worried. all outperforming a broader tick i need to get your thoughts on this, bob. we did seed such a huge rally last year is this a rebound thing? >> i think so. that's like defensive stock, high quality and cyclical stocks lower quality, the cyclicals have been winning. software stocks are not cheap. >> look, all up last year's

losers in the fourth quarter are going to be this year 'winners so, for instance, in stocks already started moving up. we like financials, we like energy, and semis are the way to go if you believe there's a cyclical upturn. mike, it is interesting, the names we're talking about today, whether it's saleforce or ar acal, they're enterprise-facing software names maybe not the names we saw big moves in last year >> salesforce was up so it seems let let's look for the next candy salesforce had done nothing for

almost 16 months it seems it's more rotational. the dallas index with a bit of slippage. does that continue and if it does, does it continues? >> i think it's help 68, but in terms of which geography is going to win, it's probably not the u.s. an intraday improvement now. >> it's been a mild risk-off -- so that trend has kind of held up in terms of business above 1 3/4, and also inflation expectations are percolating a bit. oil prices do that you see inflation-linked

treasuri treasuries, flowing going in there, so it seems as if that's animating the bond market. >> alicia, do the yields continue up? >> yes, we see yields moving up this year. the interesting story we think for 2020 is inflation. no inflation >> it's interesting to hear you say that in terms of some of the monthly -- that's really interesting, if you look at the wage growth, as we have learned recently, and the bottom half of the labor market they folks have had a four-plus

percent increase there will be inflation out of this you have a night and you have the fed willing to run it hot. and so you have arecipe for inflation to percolate through the system the fed positions is really important here it wants the company to run. >> alicia and bottom, thank you so much. up next, general wesley clark weighs in. we're back in son 90ecds s

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. tensions escalating between the u.s. and the middle east following friday's assassination of iranian general soleimani, iraq's leader meetinging with the u.s. ambassador to iraq, saying that -- >> this after iran -- to the 2015 nuclear deal. in addition the iraqi parliament calling for the -- and joining us now with insights general wesley clark general clark, thanks for joining us today >> thank you so a key question here

could the strike have actually prevented further iranian strikes, sore is this something that's going to now make escalation inevitable? >> i think you have a preclude to something dramatic that's going to happen. this is good for our force protection, it also sets the state for us to strike iran without having hostages in iraq, so it's both a defensive move and offensive move i think if you look ahead, you can see the end state here, which will be a flect. warring some extraordinary efforts but the united nations and the european union to calm this down. i would buckle mea seat belt and

get ready for a pretty rocky ride you'll see a lot of geostreetic risk there will be shocks in this market that's what we're looking a. we're looking at whether the iranians have the capacity to really strike back we're looking at whether a big set of u.s. strikes takes out the key targets, including the nuclear facilities, or whether, as some have suggested they've got nuclear potential hitten away somewhere there's a lot riding on the next few days and weeks, but you must remember there have always been some in the -- who wanted to strike iran, so this is a buildup. it can't go that way it could be deflected. it's impossible to say right now. >> general, if we rewound the

clocks, there was much greater nato agreement when it came to afc, much less when it came to iraq, but still a few key players. it doesn't sound like that would be the case this time. what's your take as a former leader on whether or not the likes of the uk, france, germany, if it is their view, that they can convince president trump can move in that direction. >> well, you're right. when we were truck by osama bin laden in 2001, nato wanted to declare article 5. the united states said, no, don't do then we brought nato in in 2005, when we found on the it was too complex, to long-standing for us to handle alone. in iraq in 2002-2003, our allies weren't with us. they said there was no need, they didn't agree with the intelligence estimate, and so

forth. and we pushed on ahead eventually some came in to help. in this case, the european union opinion is weighed heavily against there, and what the president said, that sets europe aflame when you said this. europe runs on international law. that would be a violation of international law, so europe has disagreed with the fact that the united states pulled out of this agreement with iran on the nuclear in 2018. that's been a bone of contention between the u.s. and european allies, and now this as sort of intensifies the angst in europe. they are working to head off a war, if they can. >> i wonder if you think we'll see a revisiting the war powers act. i ask in part because of the president tweeting the media

posts will serve as notification to the congress that should iran strike any u.s. person or target, the u.s. will quickly and fully strike back. that's already stoked some rebukes. i wonder what the think the legal elf lice of this is now going to be. >> i think that the administration needs to come forward with all of the intelligen intelligence they need to lay out why the strike on soleimani was necessary. were they set up in that strike? was there some reason why we did it just then how did it end up on our targeting list what all they defense analysts say is he's been doing bad things for a long time so why now what was the urgency what they had in a preemptive strike, and under the wars

resolution, congress says the president has to come within 4 hours. he did that. he then has to present his plan, but look, if this is moving toward a full-scale war, it requires congressional authorization and a debate president george w. bush went that direction in 2002, when it was time, by his administration's call to invade iraq he got congressional approval. this is something that's going to weigh heavily on this administration they're going to have to decide how to handle this right now the decks are being cleared. >> how superior is u.s. military strength compared to that of iran >> well, of course we're very superior in terms of what we know about iran. we developed targets on their critical sites for years we watch them every day, i'm sure we fly reconnaissance. we track their movements we have the ability to penetrate

airspace with air assets we have superior naval power in the area, but that doesn't mean there won't be losses, and it doesn't mean that iran won't be able to strike back, particularly in the gulf, and cause a lot of disruptions to markets. it doesn't mean these militia in lebanon and syria will cause problems so it doesn't mean that iran can't use its overseas terrorist cells to strike, maybe even in the united states, though that seems far-fetched, but they have tried it before. they do have elements in the western mem sphere so the united states has to be realie for all of this hopefully it won't come to that. hopefully ked with find a way to get off this escalation letter. >> all right we'll see. general wesley clark, thank you for joining us today. >> thank you up next the end of the party for mcdonald's

whose new ceo is trying to reverse the party culture? details are straight ahead ♪

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this is a key boeing supplier, saying they're consideration layoffs and other steps while the 737 max continues to stay grounded spirit aerosystems is exploring a range of actions to deign costs. we do not know how long the pause in production will last or the product rate when it resumes. part of it a voluntary layoff for eligible employees spirit aerosystems is a key supply for boeing. >> frank, thanks for that. this is the third installment of mike's dashboard. talk about the power of incumbents, at least in the restaurant industry. there was a bit of a new item. a yum brand is buying habit.

it's an ipo class of upstart restaurant chains that included shake shack, el pollo loco what you see is not so great habit is being taken out at $14 a share, well below its highs. obviously shake shack is in a different category also two other ones, zoey's kitchen and papa murphy's they have all been acquired below what they traded in the immediate aftermath. wow, quite a chart there, mike thank you.

mcdonald's is making changes. indicate rogers has more on that. >> the ceo was brought in by steve easterbrook and looking to put a stamp on things moving toward a more professional atmosphere he sent out a memo that was obtained by cnbc saying that mcdonnell's cede opportunity buildings community, adding that, all of this is underpinned by the core values, which are the bedrock of our core company. we must champion them and apply them more quickly. it said that easterbrook tolerated and participated in late-night -- including -- and that he and former chief hr officer david fairhurst would party with workers, adding that easterbrook was known for even

flirting with some of the female employees. he's been at the helm for about two months now after easterbrook was fired. the company is looking to bring in a new chief hr over fairhurst departed right after easterbrook was fired. back to you guys >> there is a more broad point here that should a manager be disencouraged from socializing or just having a drink after work with pour junior employees. you can't even argue that's something that could be encouraged, because it would foster a nice workplace environment. >> certainly, that is all up to the company to determine that. obviously easterbrook's relation-had violated the company's policy technically everyone does work

for him. it's interesting, chris did have a town hall with all employees and said my senior leadership has to embody the values of compete and i'm making sure we're all on the same page, so it looks like in terms of his role, he's looking to takes things in a different direction. >> thanks very much. by the way, no alcohol in the restaurant, but clearly in the work environment occasionally, at least, based on that record. up next we'll speak to a boeing bull why she recommends buying the stock we're back in a couple minutes built for you. so why isn't it all about you, when it comes to your money? so. what's on your mind? we are edward jones, a 97-year-old firm built for right now. with one financial advisor per office, we're all about knowing what's important to you the one who matters.

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we have some breaking news on american alliance phil lebeau has the news >> we know they've been talking about compensation for not having the 737 max for at least most of 2019 since at least, what, march 13th the company has reached an undisclosed settlement with boeing for that compensation remember back in october there was an s.e.c. filing where the company said we expect the damages to be at least $540 million. in that filing, they also said that 5% of whatever settlement would go to employ embrace, $30 million is going to employees as part of this agreement do the math. 30 million is 5% of 600 million, so that gives you a sense of what american has settled for.

guys, back to you. >> phil, just quickly, all of these settlements that have been reported with other airlines, if things go on longer, are they now fixed amounts? >> wilf. this is just for 2019. they not have the plaques for a month, two months, three months. that will have to be negotiated separately. >> phil, stick around. let's bring in doug cameron and sheila here from jeffries as well doug, you put out a report that boeing is eyeing raising fresh funding. it's not a company that is face ago cash crunch, but obviously with these types of costing, it may make sense to raise debt. >> absolutely. the compensation that phil just referenced, that's the fourthor

the fifth than been disclosed. there are probably others that haven't been disclosed so that's extra money going out the door of course more importantly boeing is not delivering the max. so that's creating a gap, raising cash is one of them. >> sheila, is this a surprise to you, or do they already have that factored? >> boeing ended q4 with we think about $10 billion in cash, or q3 and they bernd $5 billion. >> should they cut their different in the meantime? >> i think it kind of abates that risk.

and the billion is another 1.1, so they're burning 2.2 billion they should be able to handle it. >> how do we put all of this news together? spirit aerosystems, one of the top suppliers, saying it's offering some employees voluntary layoffs, you're gidget more the they deals are we starting to get to a point where it's -- and past the peak crisis levels, if you will? >> i don't think we're at full fluchout mode yet. i think the firing of dennis mullen berg, that may have been the absolute bottom. but there's -- there's still a number of things that need to be worked out, and until we get a sense they with the f.a.a., you

can see, okay, we see light at the end of the tunnel here i any we're in a flushout mode here where they're trying to do a compensation and get a number of things? order. >> you just don't know, frankly. answer to that it is in the ants of regulators, and until there's clarity, all these financial items are just moving pieces, to be honest. >> sheila, i want your thoughts of this production halt, but yet news from spirit aerosystems

about voluntary layoffs. >> i think the supply chain has some risk in it. so when you think about spirit, they were produces at 52 a month. they have 95 sets just in inventory. >> keep in mind boeing announced about $5 billion in july we're assuming a restart of deliveries so we're factors in about $10 million per aircraft these agreements are clearly

confidential >> you still get about or 25%. >> phil, down, sheila, great to see you. it is time for a cnbc news update with sue herera >> hello, everyone here's what's happening at this hour senator tim kaine introducing a war powers solution. the democrat wants to force a debate and a vote in congress beforehand >> in our country it was supposed to be we wouldn't send people into harm's way unless there was a political consensus represented by a congressional vote, and that's what i'm trying to force congress to grapple with. >> at least 15 people were killed and more than 40 injured after a bus traveling in peru crashed with several vehicles

and flipped over the bus was traveling from lima to that country's second-largest city. in medical news, millions of young women mae still be getting invasive medical exams that are unnecessary. health experience recommend cervical cancer screening to age at 21. and 1.6 million received a pap test the cost, $123 million per year. you are up to date morgan, back downtown to you >> sue, thank you. still ahead, the final countdown as to spacex's first launch of 2020 find out what's at stake longel coming up lat o ern "csi bl. our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence. yeah, they help us with achievable steps along the way...

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welcome back up next the risk of cyberattacks is skyrocketing the new prime target are target could surprise you. and a big intraday rally

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welcome back the nasdaq outperforming the major averaging. netflix closed up more than 3%, continues its monster run. defense intelligence experts predicting wide-ranging cyberattacks in in the past have

targeted banks and oil companies, and it could come at a huge cost. hi, contessa. >> a group claiming to be iranian hacker claimed responsibility for defacing a federal library website. the white house and the fbi have not yet commented, but homeland security issued a rare terror alert this weekend warning of iran's long history of successful cyber-attacks hackers have done serious damage in 2018 cybercrime costing the world half a trillion in economic damage, according to estimates by mosh, that's far month than theedly 2300 billion in natural disaster, yet that same year u.s. customers spent $180 billion on property insurance premiums, and only $4 billion on cybersecurity insurance, suggesting the risk of cyberlosses is vastly under, marriott and equifax zoo saw

major hacks, but smaller businesses may be more vulnerable >> contessa, what is the best thing to do for small or business businesses to protect themselves is it better cybersecurity or insurance? is insurance widely available? >> yeah, that's a great point. cyberinsurance is an increasing focus inside the industry they say cyberinsurance covers things that general liability doesn't cover like the loss of business or impact on your workers, when your workers have to leave the job because of the trauma soaked with a major attack. when you look at cyberinsurance they have consultants who comes in, assess the business, makes recommendations, and then a team to help responsibility to those cyberattackses that is something businesses could get. on the other hand i've had experience say two-factor authentication is a must, and you need something more than antivirus installed on the

computer that just doesn't cut ittian more. >> contessa brewer, thanks for bringing up the story. up next, voter volatility. how the upcoming election could call major market swings mike heads to the telestrator with that. and what ricky gervais did in the ardwa show, but apple is not the only tech company feeling heat we'll explain. your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk

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go beyond the expected. to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. santoli for the final dashboard of the day. >> morgan, voters could be vola toll and we see traders kind of setting up for the possibility of political-related bumps in the market this is there wells fargo strategy we've looked at this before and it is showing the pricing of potential protection from volatility going out month by month. this goes out through march. and right here you see this bump higher in expected volatility

built into options prices around that super-tuesday primary day look at fact it is higher than both of the months before and after. that tells you traders are attempting to price the possibility for outside market moves right there and this other chart extends it farther and there you go there is the election. that is the contract maturity that would capture the election. so it doesn't mean those motions are very volatile for the market but the street is already bracing for the possibility that they are this happens with what you would call identifiable catalysts as opposed to something out of the blue but it is worth watching. you wonder if investors will overanticipate and the market gets there before results. >> and election night, it was incredibly volatile and very short-lived. >> and relatively unusual in the quick reflerk reaction and how

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a superb drama yeah a superb drama about the importance of dignity and doing the right thing. made by a company that runs sweat shops in china so when you say you work and the companies you work for unbelievable, apple, amazon, disney if sis started a streaming service you would call your agent. >> that was golden globes host ricky gervais taking a shot at apple and diocese and amazon and sacha baron cohen took a swipe at one of the silicon valley biggest names. >> the hero of this next movie is a naive misguided child who spreads naughty propaganda and only has imaginary friends, his name is mark zuckerberg. oh, sorry. this is an old intro for the social network

i'm talking about jo jo rabbit. >> later in the evening, 1917 took home the award for best motion picture drama and sam mendes spoke out on his hopes for the film industry. >> it is difficult to make movies without big movie stars in the leads and get people to come and see it in a cinema and i really hope this means people will turn up and see it og -- see it on a big screen for which it was intended. >> to address the final clips there, it is interesting because "1917" saw huge coverage and less so here and this award victory and a couple others could make a big difference in terms of the earnings. we think that the award season comes after they've been out and this is different with "1917", only came out this week. >> could get it broader release in theaters here no doubt about that. and it is the kind of movie that is extremely cinematic and

belongs on a screen. film people are anticipating it. it is supposed to look as if one take and a lush visual experience not just a basic war story. >> sam mendes, he praised scorsese and then a swipe at his movie had been designed for the big screen and we know the irishman wasn't. and a bit of praise before the underlying tone was a criticism. >> designed for the big screen it had a big screen budget. >> and you saw it on the big screen. >> i did he got a few showings in there. >> and credit to gervais it was well hosted. >> agreed. i'm keeping an eye on something later tonight. the spacex first launch of the year set to take place after 9:00 p.m. eastern from cape canaveral in florida to put 15 for satellites into the orbit bringing spacex to 180

in what would mark the most in active use by any private satellite operator currently in business so this could be a very big milestone. first stage booster is poised for the fourth trip to space another recovery anticipated too. but overall this speaks to how rapidly spacex is building out this massive constellation to offer broadband service with two more missions behind this one expected in the next month alone. gwen shotwell said they would look to target as many as 24 launches, speaking to the fact that spacex is putting a lot toward the idea of broadband and getting it up sand running here in the u.s. before the end of the year. >> and remind us as we discussed before, and with existing teleco companies as they're customer or a rival. >> unclear we don't have the details about what the service would look like yet but we do know from comments that elon musk made to me and other members of media in the

past, he sees it as an addendum or addition to the teleco and the ability to work with them and add more connectivity to more people. >> so therefore we don't know about a payback schedule for the launches >> no, we don't. we just know that 60 satellites permission are going up into orbit and they have plans to do tens of thousands which just to put that in perspective, we only have a couple of thousand satellites orbiting the earth right now as we speak. so this is the beginning of the mega constellations i've been talking about. >> and pivoting, impressive intraday recovery. >> pretty resilient. people look ago the first five days of january and right now we're on track, markets up slightly definitely still a growth stom dominated move looking at the mega cap tech stocks grab the new money into the new year suggesting maybe it is a chase to put money to work

as opposed to the market in a very evaluation day saying the economy is reaccelerating and the iran stuff doesn't mean anything. >> we're out of time we finished higher than that today. >> thanks for watching "closing bell." >> "fast money" starts right now. >> this is "fast money." your traders on the desk tonight. i'm courtney reagan in for melissa lee. a tech trifecta driving higher in today's session and what is behind the moves a tale of two cities two different analysts with two different takes on city group. and check out this mystery chart soaring to kick off the week we will tell you what has go