now. good morning, everyone welcome to "squawk box" here, live from the nasdaq market in times square let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures at this hour. yesterday all three of the major archlgs setting record highs dow was up by over 200 points. this morning, dow indicated up another 60 points and it looks like the s&p would be about 8 points nasdaq up by 35 points this comes as the nasdaq is on track for its fifth consecutive week of gains. the s&p on pace for its sixth weekly gain out of the last seven weeks. this continued move higher, we'll continue to watch it this morning. we have the big jobs report coming up as well. also, take a look at treasury yields. right now the ten-year looks like it's trading at 1.855%.

the 30-year at 3.222 and today is jobs friday let's look at expectations forecasters say that the economy probably added 160,000 jobs last month. the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 3.5% the backdrop for this morning's report, stocks at record highs the dow closing within points of 29,000 yesterday, 28,956 apple was a big driver shares of the neck giant up more than 2% and it's also adding to the gains this morning it's up another $2.20. apple last trading at $311.84. >> on a trillion and a half. >> trillion and a half market cap. it was a broad rally, all 11 sectors of the s&p 500 closed higher. >> are we taking the under on the jobs i just feel like it would be the under on the jobs. >> you've got the weird seasonal things that take place. >> the number was so blow out last time. >> it revised higher than months

before that, too. >> it seems like eventually there's a regression or whatever you want to call it to the mean. i'm hoping it's good. >> 160,000. >> 160,000 is a lot. >> trade continuing to be a huge story for the markets. we're expecting the u.s. and china to sign the phase one agreement next week in washington a tweet on new year's eve president trump said the date was january 15th now that's wednesday but in an interview in ohio yesterday he said he thought it would be that day or, in his words, shortly thereafter. so we're going to have to watch our calendars. >> we've got to get this straight because we're booking guests based on the date. >> and the market has been behaving based on it, too. >> we need to know for producing purposes, so get it together here anyway, today's top corporate story, boeing has released

hundreds ofinternal messages, and they detail employees mocking the faa and others in the notes workers boasted about bullying regularities into approving the 737 max without requiring poi lots to undergo training on simulator. one employee writing i still haven't been forgiven by god for the covering up i did last year. and they also raised concerns about the plane itself and messages from 2017, one boeing employee said this airplane is designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkeys in a statement boeing says the messages are unacceptable, don't represent the company that we are and that we need to be the faa says the documents don't present any new safety risks that it didn't already discover during its review of the max >> i think the concern here is it's not a couple of errant emails, it's 100 pages worth of emails. >> this goes back to the culture

of the economy and the leadership of the company. i know that the former ceo is no longer in his role, but it also seems to be a deep -- toxic may be the wrong word. i don't know what's going on. >> it raises questions about the actual design of this plane inside the company there have been so many questions raised about why they're calling this the 737 when clearly it's a differently designed plane there were incentives around that to make sure they could then in turn tell the airlines that they would not have to train their pilots on simulators that's a big deal because -- >> saves a lot of money. >> flip email and communications dha people don't think will ever see the light of day are probably not representative that every company has a toxic culture. but in this case you're talking about safety and everything else. >> safety, i think people at a company who are making light of the safety. >> there's a complacency that sets in when there hasn't been a crash in years

and i'm not kpex cuesing it. you probably engage in some internal communications you wouldn't want people to see at times, don't you >> sure, but i think this is just -- >> and you would trace that all the way up to the ceo. so david muilenburg should have known? >> these were critical employees that were managing the relationship with our regularities. >> and how many of those >> the bigger issue is that the senate oversight committees that are responsible for this are showing signs of outrage, too, and that could change how soon and how quickly -- >> in any company you can find stuff where you go, wow, this person is bad news, or at least this -- >> in reality when you know those things, you're supposed to get rid of them and do stuff

about it and i don't think this was a company that did those things. >> you've got a view of boeing that i don't think necessarily -- >> get rid of the emails or the people >> no, the people. and then the other question is what exactly was happening -- >> you're ready to say the whole culture is toxic and there is a problem? >> i'm saying there clearly was a problem, at least within certain groups in the culture at boeing >> if i read the story correctly, the company uncovered these in december and that may have been before they actually fired the ceo, dennis muilenburg and i wonder if this added to that. >> related to the culture issue, how is it possible that it took them until december to find these emails, meaning these people were slow-rolling this thing. the reason my frustration stems from the idea that when this first happened -- and this goes to the questions that were asked of muilenburg during the

testimony and interviews, you would that thought when a crash like this happened that you would have been all over it, trying to find every last thing. you would have had the pressure on everybody to even discover the emails would have been there. and the idea that it took them basically, what, six months to a year almost, to find these things, and then to disclose them there was something -- amiss is not the right word. >> sometimes people can wipe them with a cloth and you can never find emails. remember there's things that happen this is one of the great u.s. companies. companies stumble at times whether you throw the entire culture of the company under the bus because of it, i don't think -- i think that's a sort of the house is not burning scenario i don't think you always can do that >> you're not troubled by those emails >> i'm troubled by the individuals that wrote the emails i'm not ready to say there's a

toxic culture at boeing. >> if you had people like that working for you and you didn't do anything about it -- >> out of how many people? how many employees does boeing have >> but the question is, the people at this level, did they know what was happening below, and that's going to be the question to ask. >> there are other companies that i have a much bigger problem with what goes on. >> i know, because you have a political problem. >> not political problems. i would like to read some of the internal emails from some other institutions, media institutions. >> the faa, with a new sheriff in town at the faa, i think he is going to take this seriously. if they ultimately decide it's not a problem, then i think i would go along with that because he's been clear about saying the security and safety. >> these in general are incredible pieces of machinery, incredible >> incredibly safe, well-tested,

well-manufactured, well-researched, the safety is done boeing over the years, the safety record is almost -- until these last two crashes, it's one of the greatest companies that we have in this country. and it gives you 50,000 flights a day of almost flawless air travel, even with all the other stuff that goes on then we can leave it like that there's always some bad apples around out of how many hundred thousand employees so don't close it down yet >> nobody is closing the company down somebody needs to take a hard look at what's happening. >> you don't think there's a hard look at this point? >> i think the fact that we're into january after these crashes happened basically a year ago and we're still having this conversation -- >> your watch is blank what are you looking at? >> i'm looking at the time. >> do you see january there or

something? >> i do. >> he's got an apple watch. >> it was blank. >> in other headlines, new security camera footage has emerged allegedly showing carlos ghosn in the streets of japan before his escape to lebanon the video which was obtained by japanese news agency nhk, shows a person who looks like ghosn walking on a street near his home nhk say police are looking at the possibility ghosn may have used side streets to avoid being defected before his escape cnbc has not confirmed the authenticity of the video, but obviously police are checking it out closely. when we return, i imagine we'll continue our debate about boeing, but we're also going to talk with the record run we're going to get you ready for today's trade as we head to the break. reminder, make sure to subscribe to our podcast, you'll get interviews and behind-the-scenes access and you can look for us on your favorite podcast app

stay tuned we're back in just a moment.

we are getting ready for the very big jobs number, we hope it is, coming out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time the number to beat right now would be for the company to add 160,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to stay

historically low at 3.5% giving us their thoughts and insights, senior fellow at the manhattan institute and former economist at the cea under president bush and jim sullivan is here. what are you looking for what do you think is going to happen >> i have optimism here that the adp number will allow me to think that we're coming in somewhere closer to 200,000 jobs. >> you're going on the over? >> i'm going to go over. >> are you pessimistic >> lowering expectations i can't believe it could be 200 again. it could >> i think the labor market tha been stronger than we've expected throughout the year so i'm going to maintain optimism i think we'll be flat on unemployment and a slight uptick on wages, continuing on the modest trajectory that we've been on. >> i think you're going to be less optimistic.

>> i'm taking the under for this particular number. not that i think the trend is plunging but it's coming off the 266 last month, and even if you x out the gm strikers coming back i've got 145, and even at 145, you get almost 190,000 a month in the fourth quarter, in the first nine months of the year we're 170 something. so the trend is looking strong you could get 100,000 or less in december and theanchl verage is still going to look strong. >> we always have to play this strange game that happens, which is that sometimes a good number is a bad number, a bad number can be a good number because there's sort of an implied view that the fed is going to do something or not right now there's a view the fed won't do anything if it runs hot. is that bad? how do you sort of see the number versus the market >> i don't think the range that we're talking about here is enough to really push the fed in one direction or another

even if we get a 200 plus number, kbi don't see the fed thinking that's enough. >> so the market is just going to react based on the under/over of 160 >> we've got softening of the labor market, and we have an increase in jobless claims relative to last year. so that's a better indication of the fact that we are on the trend. >> we're paying them more and they're coming out of the people that were not in the participation, where are they coming from? 3.5, if you take it at face value, there shouldn't be anyone left >> i saw an article somewhere that taco bell is paying $100,000 a year for certain employees. did you see that >> no. >> i didn't look into the article itself, but it was one of the headlines so i'm sure it's like a store manager or something like that >> that's what i would imagine for a high-producing store. >> i would take less to work at

taco bell myself, as long as i was able to eat. >> i think that's an option. >> isn't it time for things to start getting tight? >> i think they are relatively tight. the unemployment rate has been coming down. it hasn't come down quite as rapidly in the past year, but it's at its low at 3.5%. i think the employment numbers are starting to slow and it is plausible that the numbers are overstated a little bit. we are going to get the revision next month and some prelim numbers suggest that there is going to be a bit of a downward division but you need payroll to slow to 200,000 a month to stop unemployment from falling. >> the restaurant manager, it's $100,000 the current average salary for a

manager of a taco bell is between $50,000 and $80,000. it doesn't say which restaurant this job is coming from. >> probably a high-performing restaurant in an expensive metro area. >> how about perks >> you mean all the free tacos >> they're not expensive. >> should i call the recruiting company for you? >> my uncle used to be a manager of a taco bell decades ago and he would bring the stuff home for us. >> there can be a lot of benefit here we'll work on that >> i'm going to call the hr department right now and see if i can get you a gig. is there like a fee? like a head-hunting fee? >> free tacos. >> what i bet now, if i go to the game and i want a certain team to win, sometimes it helps to bet on the other team now so that way if they lose, this

is the way it is with the employment number for me i'm just saying if it's lower, then it turns out what i was saying was right but if it's higher, i'm happy. anyway, you're hoping to get good job numbers out of the way now. i'm worried if we get them now and then when is comes around april, may, june, july -- >> i don't think like that the thought that you thought through that, just demonstrates -- >> all right, all right. >> nice to see you thank you for coming in this morning. it never even occurred to me to think like that. >> we could be back to 18,000 by november if things go well for you on the dow. >> not today in fact, when we come back, we have more of this morning's big corporate story. more trouble for boeing as the public learns about scandalous internal memos, workers mocking regulator and some of thor own colleagues working on the 737

max. one employee wrote would you put your family on a fax simulator trained aircraft, i wouldn't the other employee wrote back know "squawk box" will be right back. i can. the two words whispered at the start of every race. every new job. and attempt to parallel park. (electrical current buzzing) each new draft of every novel. (typing clicks) the finishing touch on every masterpiece. (newborn cries) it is humanity's official two-word war cry. words that move us all forward. the same two words that capital group believes have the power to improve lives. and that, for over 85 years,

have inspired us to help people achieve their financial goals. talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. the unparalleled landscape of park city, or the famed peaks of whistler, you've faced the hassle of lugging your gear through the airport. with ship skis, you're just a few clicks away from having your skis, snowboard and luggage shipped from your doorstep to your destination. with unrivaled pricing, real time tracking ship skis delivers, hassle free. ship ahead and go catch those first tracks on fresh snow. ship skis. your skis. delivered. [ ominous [ hissing ]ng ] mirror, mirror on the wall... ♪ makeup mode! [ verdera voice mirror ] done. start happily ever after playlist. [ verdera voice mirror ] starting playlist. when does the nail salon open? [ verdera voice mirror ] at 9 a.m. oooh, remind me to update my profile pic.

[ verdera voice mirror ] setting reminder. add catnip to my shopping list. [ verdera voice mirror ] okay. shower, shower. [ chuckling ] and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk we're changing what's possible every single day.

and if you run a business, that means a lot. we create financing options for your customers. to help them get the things they love instantly. our data provides insights into what your shoppers have already bought. so you can offer them what they might consider buying next. our technology and financial solutions are changing what's possible in all sorts of ways. so, how can we change what's possible for you? let's take a quick look at the futures. we're up 77 points now that would put us above 29,000 on the dow and we're getting up over 10,000 points since the election, obviously, which is a big

number 30,000 was the jeremy sigel number for a while. >> now large numbers, if you do 6% a year for the next five years, you're up in the mid 30s, i think. anyway, one of the dow components that we haven't talked about, i don't know whether you call it vindication, but all the bad things happening to boeing, one of them maybe is that the engine was not -- may not have been the problem in the crashes. we immediately -- the united states immediately shut down the air space over the entire area, which would seem to be the prudent thing to do if there's a shooting war. >> right look, it was canadian prime minister justin trudeau who said that based on evidence they have, also from their own intelligence, but it's not just us saying this, looking to

deflect this it's other countries that have their own intelligence >> what do you mean? >> when people say the iranians -- well, the iranians saying the u.s. are doing this they say it's psychological warfare that they're using it's not just the u.s. saying this there are other countries with their own intelligence operations that are saying the same thing at this point the other story we've been following on boeing is releasing hundreds of internal messages that detail employees mocking the faa and others phil labeau has more on the story. >> this is a few of them 100 pages of light reading, becky. we're not going to go through all 100 pages, but this issue with these text messages, emails, et cetera, communication between whether it's technical pilots and engineers at boeing commercial airplanes, it gets to this point and joe needs to listen to this. the concern amongst regulators, the concern on capitol hill, is that boeing had a culture where

when it comes to the max, they did not want to have any simulator training because that would make it more attractive to sell the plane to airlines and these messages reinforce just that whole culture of, look, what do we have to do in order to tell the regulators, to convince the regulators that simulators are not needed for the max. here's an example. one employee to another says "would you put your family on a max simulator trained aircraft, i wouldn't". the other employee answers no. in another message an employee says "i still haven't been forgiven by god for the covering up i did last year". and then there are some of these messages, look, you're going to get this when you have thousands of employees sending tens of thousands of messages. "this airplane is designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkeys"

now, the faa says these documents do not show any new safety issues with the simulators or the max. so in that regard there's no smoking gun in these documents and that's true. however, this gets to the issue of how boeing and the culture at boeing commercial airplanes operated between 2011 -- really 2013 is where these messages start, all the way up to 2018. boeing says all of the max simulators do function effectively right now and whatever is written in here is not a reflection on how those simulators operate the company also issued a statement saying the language used in these communications and some of the sentiments they express is inconsistent with boeing values and the company is taking appropriate action in response this will ultimately include disciplinary and other personnel action once the necessary reviews are completed. as you take a look at shares of boeing, we should point out these documents were first turned over to the faa, as well as staffers on capitol hill back

in december, which then brings up the question, why are they coming out now i think they were likely to be leaked, and two, dave calhoun starts as ceo on monday. one of his mandates is the days of arrogance at boeing are gone. they have made it clear to the faa, they have made it clear to the folks on capitol hill, boeing is hell-bent on changing the culture where they call the shots and the regulators who are working on an upcoming aircraft will go along for the ride they're not saying that happened entirely with the max. but they're trying to make it very clear that they are turning over a new leaf as much as possible. >> that goes to the heart of the idea that the company is now suggesting that there should be flight simulator training for any of the pilots on the 747 max. >> yes, and that gets into a number of things and it gets very technical but one of those things is that you want to make sure that at a minimum, when pilots around the world are flying the max, they

have the right sequence down for whatever event may happen, not just with mcas, but for anything else in the cockpit. and there's going to be muscle memory for certain sequences and they want to make sure everybody has it down cold that's why they are asking the faa to say as part of ungrounding of the max, they think there should be simulator training. >> who pays for that they talk about it saves them a million dollars per plane if they don't have to train the pilots on those things so boeing is now going to be paying >> yes >> it seems like some of the concern comes from the idea that things that should have been safety features and required were treated as extras and add-ones that cost a little more things like the monitor to be able to see the mcas was not working and the lights on the dashboard and things along those lines. >> correct but in terms of your question of who pays for this.

ultimately boeing does pay pore this but this does get to the question of when they were selling this aircraft, one of the selling points was you've got a fleet of 737s, buy the max. because if you buy the max, your pilots who are already certified on the 737, we're not going to have to go through all the simulator training that's a big selling point when you're talking to an airline that's deciding between buying the 737 max with pilots who are already certified, or switching over to the airbus a-320, which would require training costly training. that's the selling point they were hitting these emails get to the point of the concern that they really wanted to push that so they were going to make sure as much as possible, any way possible, they were going to make sure that airlines would not have to go through simulator training. >> that's the whole corporate strategy, that it was not that different than the 737 it's called the 737 max, let's roll it out.

and you get a company that has been successful and so safe and you do get complacency, they want to roll it out. and obviously profit incentives cut both ways. they hold people accountable sometimes because you can't waste money, but they also cause corner-cutting and in hindsight, now we know there were two crashes. but prior to that, i don't know if any of these employees, if they knew in hindsight that there was going to be fatal crashes. i'm not sure you would have seen the flip emails. >> i'm sure if people knew in hindsight. if you knew in hindsight that your work could lead to a crash, you wouldn't be engaging in that attitude. >> and they're still saying it wasn't that much of a change there was a move here and we've addressed that with some software but it turns out it was more of a change and they could have heard that and i think they did hear that. we saw some of the smoking guns from the pilots that said, wait

a second, i had trouble controlling it on takeoff. >> one thing that i can't stress enough, and i have heard this from current and former boeing employees, this comment of, yeah, were they a little arrogant in dealing with the faa? probably that arrogance is coming home to bite them right now. >> it's not surprising that it is and that probably has been seen again and again through history, that that happens. and then you get too arrogant and then you get back to earth, which is not a good way of phrasing it. all right, clowns and monkeys. anyway, coming up top corporate stories and stocks to watch. as we head to break, here's a look at s&p 500 winners and losers

>> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business with edge covering virtually every part of your business. to managing your fleet... to collaborating remotely with your teams. giving you a nice big edge over your competition. that's the power of edge-to-edge intelligence. our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence. they help us with achievable steps along the way... so we can spend a bit today, knowing we're prepared for tomorrow. wow dad, do you think you overdid it maybe? i don't think so... what do you think, peanut? nope! honey, do you think we overdid it? overdid what? see? we don't think so, son. technically, grandparents can't overdo it.

it's impossible. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement.

good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq site in times square. among the stories that are front and center, shareholder are set to receive more cash than ever this year. standard and poors says it is expecting a record year with the s&p 500 companies dishing out more than $500 billion in dividends for the first time shareholders in norton life lock are about to enjoy a big payout. they've declared a $12 a share special dividend the money coming from norton life lock sale to broad com. and grubhub is pushing back against reports that they're considering a sale of the company. they say no process is in place

to sell the company. the "wall street journal" had reported that grubhub was looking at options for a sale. if stock spiked, you'll see it was up 17%, 18% a couple of days ago. right now the stock down by almost 10% this morning. you see it on wednesday afternoon was when those reports first came out if you're looking at a longer-term stock, it's down significantly because of the huge competition that we have with uber eats and other platforms that are doing this as well by the way, uber shares were actually higher on this report, too, on the idea that there would be consolidation in the industry and there would be less bruci bruising the company says there is nothing in process for the sale of the company, although they say they are constantly looking at all options that exist on the table. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures. dow futures indicated up another 80 points after closing at a

report level yesterday s&p up by 10.5 and the nasdaq about 45 points. this morning, this company's stock is on a record run we will reveal the name and we have some analysts that will debate if there's any end in sight. can you guess what it is and a reminder, you can always watch us live on the go on the cnbc app we'll be right back in just a moment (jan ostbusters!...of c'o take an informal poll. i used to be a little cranky. dealing with our finances really haunted me. thankfully, i got quickbooks, and a live bookkeeper's helping customize it for our business. (live bookkeeper) you're all set up! (janine) great! hey! you got the burnt marshmallow out! (delivery man) he slimed me. (janine) tissue? (vo) get set up right with a live bookkeeper with intuit quickbooks. the easy way to a happier business.

i and wondering if that abouwas the last time

i was going to do that thing. coming to the cancer treatment centers of america, they treat the whole person. everything is here. imaging, infusion... i don't have to go anywhere else. they care about me as a person beyond just being a cancer patient. they're my second family. you still have service? call the insurance company sfx: [phone ringing] it's them, calling us.

it's going to be a week before they can get through on these roads shhh, sorry, i didn't catch that. i said ask how soon they can be here right now? what's now? he says they're surveying our property now they're probably at the wrong house i don't see any hovering his name is hovering? look up? by automating claims with machine learning and analytics, cognizant is helping insurance companies advance how they serve even hard to reach customers. cool ♪

the jobs report is going to be released at 8:30 eastern today. economists say unemployment is expect to say at lows. i wish you were listening earlier because we were trying to figure out where these people are coming from. there's a lot of nuance to this. >> you go to the closet and pull the people out. >> participation rate? >> the participation rate is going to be what it's going to be i think we're looking for this flood of people that are going to jump back into the market the jobs that are available and the skills of the people who aren't participating, they don't mesh. >> how do we get -- if we do get 160,000, we continue to exceed expectations, after years ago people said the labor market is getting too tight to provide

workers for all these positions, and we keep seeming to find them somewhere. how is that happening? are we seeing wage growth which is inducing people to leave other jobs >> you see wage growth where people will leave one company and go to another. you see people that were in retail jobs for a long period of time, even coming out of the recession, and now they're saying i can get back in to where i was. this is where the conflict becomes, is that so many people are upset about what's in it for me, why aren't i growing as i see the stock market growing, and there's this confluence of people are happy in their jobs -- or not happy in their jobs and they're afraid to leave because they're afraid the ceiling is going to fall out and they won't want to be the low man on the totem pole at the new place. >> what can you tell us about this current month it's short-term, but the adp number was good. >> december is going to be a good month.

>> what happened in december, and then january, february, march, is it be sustained? >> i think it's going to be sustained for the next six to nine months. also coming out of december, we have kids graduating from college, you're going to have nice numbers following a may graduation and december graduation the economy doesn't show any signs of slowing down. this iran conflict is a little bit out there, but it doesn't look like that's going to escalate it looks pretty good from what i'm seeing talking to ceos and cfos of small and mid cap companies right now, i don't see it slowing down. >> so what will keep the unemployment rate at above 3 could it go below 3? >> it used to be historically, it was always 2.5% was viewed as full unemployment. we're getting pretty darn close to that. >> we've been saying that for a while, though. that's why my initial question was where are they coming from at this point. so we could go below 3.5, or you

don't think so >> i don't think so. >> but then we should start seeing wage gains? >> i think you have to but the reason the wage gain hasn't happened the way everybody wants it to because it's not north american or united states wage gain. we're competing for jobs around the world. it's a different economy than it was 20, 30, even 10 years ago. you're not competing against your neighbor for a job. >> that's what you think is causing the inequality >> i think it's causing a lack of wage gain >> if your job can be done in india or somewhere else -- >> that's been the problem for 30 years >> yes, but it was 30 years ago was call centers, then accounting and legal and i.t so the wage gain at the highest levels isn't going to grow as fast when you look at service industries, hourly workers, those things can't be outsourced you have to view it overall and it's a global entity we've got to get out of this

what's in my back yard mentality and look at it of who can actually do the work and if it were your company, how would you run it and people want to invest in high-margin businesses. >> tom, thanks so you're looking out over the employment land and you see everything happening >> you see the bald spots. >> that's tall. >> it's very tall. i noticed that walking in. >> they need to recruit some height back in >> you were a cool kid >> that was a long time ago. all right, when we come back, the good, the bad and the ugly retail winners and losers and what trade deals could mean for the sector you're watching quk x""sawbo right here on cnbc i can.

the two words whispered at the start of every race. every new job. and attempt to parallel park. (electrical current buzzing) each new draft of every novel. (typing clicks) the finishing touch on every masterpiece. (newborn cries) it is humanity's official two-word war cry. words that move us all forward. the same two words that capital group believes have the power to improve lives. and that, for over 85 years, have inspired us to help people achieve their financial goals. talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information.

and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk while our competition continues to talk. or more on car insurance.s could save you fifteen percent everybody knows that. well, did you know pinocchio was a bad motivational speaker? i look around this room and i see nothing but untapped potential. you have potential. you have-oh boy. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.

2019 was instrumental in telling winners from losers. best buy up 66% and then macys was down 43% and gap down 41%. barney's new york and gymboree just to name a few he is the national retail federation president and ceo also former sacks chairman and ceo. he's now the senior adviser. so based on both surveys it looked like the retail holiday

shopping numbers were strong up 3.5% or so. >> you had a very solid holiday season you had sales up 3.4% for the holiday season said the consumer was healthy. they were shopping came in on the labor side. it was probably promotional but overall it was a good holiday season. >> having said that, the numbers we have been hearing from j.c. penneys, macy's, kohl's, they have been concerning how do you sort out what's really taking place with all of this. >> you hit it with the entry when you're talking about what is doing well. there's going to be winners and losers in this market. not everyone can make that leap as quickly as others but overall given where consumers are, going

into this holiday season we know we had momentum so we're still very positive on our forecast for the year and in a couple of days we have 40,000 people here and it's become a technology show, a digital show and we have ceos from best buy and lowe's. there's a lot of enthusiasm as we go into 2020. that speaks volumes to what has been happening we focus on a digital experience on a consumer basing side and mobile device to interact with a retailer how do you digitize the design of the products. how do you digitize the purposes of sustainability. how do you take costs out of

fulfillment inventory management that's what is driving a lot of the transformation >> making investments for a number of years and winning versus a lot of some of the legacy companies that happened a target or a walmart or some of these others they were outside of the mall environment. what do you think about the future for mall based retailers? >> it's not just them that were winning. you have brands that were winning. lululemon and others it's actually doing reasonably well it's these that aren't doing well. >> i saw a story that suggested even some were having trouble recently because of the forever 21 bankruptcy where they conceded because you too much so much space you'll have lower

rents. >> it has to become more experience based the consumer wants experiences the consumer wants value the consumer wants something different than everywhere else it's going to be the same stuff that you see in every mall it's not as exciting as the consumer you often buy that segmented differentiated brand and the gen z customer is looking for social responsibility and they have a story to it they're not necessarily all in there. >> are there some brands that aren't able to catch upment? they have been struggling for years and they need to move to the digital world? what happens to them. >> i never write off a brand

with a lot of great legacy and equity in it they can always reinvent themselves we saw that with toys "r" us. >> toys "r" us literally has one store. >> but my point is there's equity in the brand name. >> there is. >> people find a way to deliver that in a new environment. so i wouldn't write off any brands but there's a prem -- premium on making the transition as quick as you can. >> maybe i misspoke in saying that there's a brand you're right the toys "r" us brand is a strong resinating brand. but it's one store and a small store. you may be talking about you basically have to scrap what exists. >> that's the way you have to look at it though. today's consumer isn't going to engage the way yesterday's consumer did and as a result you need to rethink the way in which

you represent yourself in the marketplace. >> but the retailer, in some ways, the brand itself doesn't matter so when i go on amazon and especially when i buy from a third party, i don't even care historically who the third party is by the way i'm finding more and more products that are no good it depends what you're buying. that's a whole other situation. >> the brands -- >> if you're looking for the product and you try to buy the product and therefore the retailing brand franchise to some degree has been decimated. >> brands are alive and well. >> product brands. >> that's brands. >> where they buy the brands is changing. >> but what i'm suggesting is foot locker, toys "r" us, these are great historically retail brands. >> exactly. >> so they're changing where you want to be buying product. you have 10,000 stores opening this year and a lot of new stores opening you have digitally native brands the local targets so it's a

different environment. what's exciting to me is that retail is going through probably a bigger transformation now than it's ever gone through that's why the show is so important. >> thank you for being here. we appreciate it. >> coming up, it is jobs friday. we're going to get ready for that main event and ask what the markets want to hear from the labor department futures suggest that we'll open above 29,000 squawk box will be right back. at synchrony, we're changing what's possible every single day. with technology that helps you offer shoppers a better experience. take your company's app. we can add in all sorts of capabilities, which help your customers manage rewards, offers, and payments on the fly. and now, applying for credit can happen in a flash. that way,

more people can start shopping with you on the spot, wherever they are. how's that for changing what's possible?

new documents released about the 737 max and the regulatory process. what they revealed and wall street's reaction. that's straight ahead. >> jobs friday is here and so are more records for wall street a break down of what to watch ahead of the open. >> a look at which candidates corporate america is throwing political donations to as the second hour of squawk box begins right now. good morning welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc.

in studio, jason is here chairman of strategic research partners so be with us as we get the jobs number at 8:30. we'll show you u.s. equity futures but you can imagine this number may well change and right now you're looking at the dow looking like it could open up a little bit just marginally higher we'll show you the s&p as well we're going to throw the screen around. >> it's indicated up by about 10 points for the s&p. >> we'll show you the s&p up by 10 the nasdaq about 43 points. >> also we'll tell you what's in the headlines this hour. a take over deal announced moments ago in the pharmaceutical industry. they're buying the skin disease specialist for $1.1 billion in cash that take over price is $18.75 a share. that represents a premium of 2.2% is that right? dermira shares up by 2%. eli lily down

an iranian missile was the reason for the crash this week of the boeing jet. they said they would be willing to hand over black boxes from the jet and invited investigators from the united states and other countries to help they believe a missile possibly fired mistakenly caused the crash that killed 176 people amazon is said to be in talks to sell ads outside of the fire tv platform they're talking to other tv app companies about technology that would let the ads themselves appear on apple tv and sony's playstation. >> in just about 90 minutes we're going to find out if the market remained red hot in the summer, i'm talking about the job market expectations are for creation of 160,000 non-farm payrolls. i was actually looking at that stock. it was like $8 about less than a month ago. >> so i was going to say, 2.2%

premium is -- >> so it's a billion dollar company so it's very, very small and it was up from 8 to almost 20 and i don't know whether that's based on speculation. all right. with the unemployment rate remaining historically low 3.5%, steve is here with more on what to expect. so you heard most of the show already. so you can address some of these nagging questions. >> all of them, joe. in less than a minute. we close out the books on the 2019 jobs market with a report that should help investors and economists figure out what joe is talking about how hot is the job market trend. here's when everybody was sure it was cooling blows the doors off with 266,000. pushing it above 200,000 for the first time since january you can see where is the trend in the whole series there. there's the number

160 after 266 looking for a 3.5% unchanged unemployment rate. average hourly wages should be strong and we'll talk more about that in a second and the december adp payrolls pointed to a strong report here today we have continued trend growth around % for the economy and a big thing to watch here is wages and the consumer overall wage growth has grown flat but inside the number, growth of the pay of regular workers out stripped the growth in supervisory pay. now that orange line could be falling off because of bonuses linked to 2018 tax cuts. they may have rolled off for supervisors but the supply of labor for regular workers is simply tighter and employers are being forced to pay up to fill jobs we had some stories about that you guys talked about -- i don't know which category this would come into but the managers at the taco bell. you heard these stories in different places where employers are going to have to pay up and the investing angle on that, i

think, and get pressure it was over. >> it's where it should be but you seem to be able to bring people into the work force and very extensively at this it begins with women, prime age women. >> prime age -- i know what we are. you don't need to specifically, you know, prime age. >> what is prime age >> 25-54. >> oh, god now i don't know where you're going with any of this

so aren't you expecting to go back toward the mean? >> i am expecting? what did you decide? is it reversion to the mean or regression >> both are right. >> both are direct i believe and i can predict it and then be exat the tick. >> i looked at what you were talking about earlier today and i ran a few numbers on that because i have just listened to everything you say you were right you would have been wrong the last two months. the street was light by 28,000 >> 266 is too much >> but i think that will still be okay. >> yes >> yes >> it's those prime age women back into the work force. >> prime age.

>> i would stop that right now. >> i'm just saying it correctly. >> i know. >> he's mishearing it. it's my fault. >> i'm not mishearing. >> prime age. >> they're all from 0 to 100 is prime age for all of us. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. >> thank you. >> thinking about economic stuff. >> so we keep living >> okay, i'm sorry. >> thank you with the market at new highs what could happen to stock when the jobs released numbers were just points away from the dow's record high. joining us to talk about the markets is the managing director and senior portfolio manager at morgan stanley investment management jason is our guest host today. you said 2019 was not complicated nor do i believe 2020 will be a lot of people thought 2019 was

complicated. >> the reason why it wasn't is it followed the path of 2012 and 2016 which was we had big correction for 2016 just like we did in 15 and just like we did in 2011 and we had big outflows the next year and it takes about a year of outflows until people say wait a minute, i made a mistake. i should have bought. >> so i wrote this piece in early december saying it's just starting which is the capitulation is people have stopped selling out of equity mutual funds and they're starting to invest into risk assets this is why you're seeing the market, the futures are indicated down and then the market is up on the day. i think money has started to come back and we're still in the early -- and clearly the market is very overbought short-term but i think that's why 2020 will be consistent with 2017 which was a swing back into equity

risk we came out with massive outflows. >> i would argue if you look at in flows in etfs and mutual funds over the last years there's actually net outflows from equities. we talked about this story for a decade thinking they are going to get involved. >> what was the number one selling asset last year? when risk off is the number one

selling asset, that money is going -- some of it is going to find it's way back. >> it's also not just a retail investor positioning among institutional investors. so that's adjusting also. >> 30 years after the great depression people get back into equities. >> until you made a new high. >> 1929, you didn't surpass the high until 1954. so you gave people two 50% declines at the start of the decade 2002, 2007-2009. so there is a chance that people don't -- people are obviously gun shy. on the other hand -- >> or there's a chance that we're setting ourselves up in the 1929 high. >> i don't see it. when you have interest rates this low it again goes back to this, there is no alternative and of course that's creating other mal investment in the system but i don't think public equities is the place. >> if you could buy stocks would you buy? if we could, would you finally buy now after listening to

andrew if you could remember the train that left the station? we got to florida and then we were down in south america and went through the south poll and came up the other side. >> the trump bump. >> the trump train. >> any train, the equity train to get on. >> i'm on the train. >> you finally got on, you didn't tell me. >> i have been on the train. >> can i ask how much of this is linked to the fed? >> the fed cut rates three times. how much is this going to change >> absolutely. that's a big issue they change policy but people are still reacting to what already happened i'm bullish on 2020 but i'd love if they would come out and say the numbers aren't so strong because my worry is the economy is going to get hot this year.

we're going to get everyone back into the equities, much more positive about equities and then the economy is going to get too high and the med is going to have to react after the election. >> you said something interesting. you're positive for 2020 but also think the market is overbought here. >> short-term. >> short-term. >> i'm just not sure that it's going to pull back because the other thing that's consistent about these second years after people selling is every pull back is an opportunity to invest the economy gets hot, is there inflation or just a hot economy? >> hotter economy. >> by the way, the yield curve inverted right when it was supposed to. you realize that.

>> where is inflation? >> the yield curve inverted in august of 2019 the last four times the yield curve inverted two years before the market peaked. that would be 2020. >> let me say this, a hot economy is no reason. >> fascinating love it. >> a modest increase in rates would not be the end of the world. you would think the economy could with stand going up just a little bit. >> it could do that. >> another point too jason is our guest host. he's going to be with us for the rest of the show we'll see you in a little bit. >> coming up when we return explosive new memos about the 737 max. how workers at the aerospace giant mocked the faa and the people that designed the now grounded 737 max here's one quote from those documents. an employee says this airplane

is designed by clowns who were supervised by monkeys. we'll talk all about it when squawk returns rightft ts. aerhi our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence. yeah, they help us with achievable steps along the way... ...so we can spend a bit now, knowing we're prepared for the future. surprise! we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. oooh, well... i'm good at my condo. oh. i love her condo. nana throws the best parties. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement. now you can, with shipsticks.com! no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks.com makes it fast & easy to get to your golf destination. with just a few clicks or a phone call, we'll pick up and deliver your clubs on-time, guaranteed, for as low as $39.99.

shipsticks.com saves you time and money. make it simple. make it ship sticks. shipsticks.com saves you time and money. oh no, here comes gthe neighbor probably to brag about how amazing his xfinity customer service is. i'm mike, i'm so busy. good thing xfinity has two-hour appointment windows. they have night and weekend appointments too. he's here. bill? karolyn? nope! no, just a couple of rocks.

download the my account app to manage your appointments making today's xfinity customer service simple, easy, awesome. i'll pass. coming up can apple keep climbing and then boeing is growing,

employees express doubts about the company's ability to fly and internal communications. one employee saying in a memo, would you put your family on a maxim you lay to trained aircraft i wouldn't more on this in just a minute. squawk box coming right back >> time now for today's aflac trivia question, what year did georgia vote to ratify the u.s. constitution in order to become the fourth state to join the unedtas?it ste the answer when cnbc squawk box continues. why aflac? because health insurance doesn't always pay it all. aflac! after surgery we had extra bills followed up visits, deductibles. we thought health insurance had us covered up for everything, but it didn't. aflac gives you money directly to help you with those things. i want to thank my wife, my mom, the duck. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. get to know us at aflac.com

the unparalleled landscape of park city, or the famed peaks of whistler, you've faced the hassle of lugging your gear through the airport. with ship skis, you're just a few clicks away from having your skis, snowboard and luggage shipped from your doorstep to your destination. with unrivaled pricing, real time tracking ship skis delivers, hassle free. ship ahead and go catch those first tracks on fresh snow. ship skis. your skis. delivered. created by apple, not a bank. with a better way to track where you spend. a new level of privacy and security. daily cash you get back every day. and no fees. not even hidden ones. oh, and if you happen to be somewhere that doesn't accept apple pay yet, there's this. nice.

now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what year did georgia vote to ratify the u.s. constitution in order to become the fourth state to join the united states? the answer 1788. apple shares at a record the stock has more than doubled over the last year

but the $1.3 trillion company has not had it over the past four years find it out. the research analyst is also with us at senior markets commentator mike santoli i'm going to start with you mike doubling in the past year finally happened and it happened i guess on the air pods that's being simplistic because there was no apple car, none of the things that apple was supposed to do ever happened. >> yeah. >> and i wasn't going to mention it but he has a pretty good relationship with washington too and people didn't know -- >> that was the lifting of a negative. >> that was a lifting of a negative but my question was going to be a chicken and egg question, the s&p has been unstoppable in like a scary way,

just keeps going momentum wise and apple is a big part of that and the s&p going up the s&p going up is a big part of the s&p going up and apple going up is a big part of the s&p going up. >> exactly it's a big class of group of stocks like apple and apple is the lead one in the last year that's driving the s&p 500 so yes, in the last little stretch of time its a we want to buy stocks give me an obvious great one to buy. i like the flavor called apple and i'm going to buy it. now that being said, apple is also going to have $65 billion in free cash flow this year. it's by far -- and by the way, that's about what they had in 2018 not much has changed with the business versus two years ago. it's just more confident by investors that this could last a long time and the upgrade cycle for iphones is no longer are

people going to buy the phone? >> i just think their team is -- that everybody owns those stupid things and everybody loses them. do you know what i mean? they were so losable that's designed right into the product. don't tell me it's going to be 2.6 trillion in a year market cap. >> so the advantage that apple had in 2019 was incredibly low expectations so they started with a surprise announcement and in 2019 it was really about apple diversifying away from the iphone and the story is leveraging a multiyear shift because of 5-g while expectations are higher in 2020 than they were last year and certainly benefitted from low expectations, they're moving into their sweet spot meaning that this looks like it could be a really goodyear for their smartphones after last year where it's basically apple's

efforts to diversify away from their smartphones. how much has our buddy warren made. >> i think his average buying price at the beginning was well below here remember it was nine times earnings, blah blah. >> so you can say there's a path but it's a very different story. the net cash position of apple is still huge but not really that material anymore. that used to be a big part of the story. >> how much do you think this number is based on you don't believe it's based on the upgrade cycle based on this idea that 5-g is going to hit us. >> it's based -- that has to become a little bit the thesis right now from this level.

and whether that's true or not that's in the stock. 5-g is a total marketing push. i don't think the world, the real world is waiting with baited breath for something like that. >> can i ask you about the valuation? i think joe made such a good point which is -- >> wait a minute. >> just a second ago you were saying -- >> breaking news. >> so it's almost impossible to have the largest waits go up by the same token, it's 26 times trailing earnings. i don't know what your estimate is for the year coming up but it's certainly not cheap like one would say by historical

standards. certainly where it was when warren buffet was buying it. so what do you think >> so shares are expensive by historic levels but there's an opportunity for the stock to grow into the valuation which you don't really say that often for apple and the iphone sales with the 5-g roll out and it's going to be a multiple year event. so you may have it in more markets than 2021. one of their strengths other than design is marketing and hype around 5-g plays to its strengths. so yes, clearly the stock is expensive by historic valuations but there's an opportunity to them to grow to the valuation and strengthen their most important product item being a smartphone. >> let me go back, his purchases of this in the first quarter of 2018, they bought 75 million shares of apple. that added to the 165.3 million

shares they owned at the end of 2017 and at that point in may of 2018, i was out there for the annual meeting and buffet said the idea that you're going to spend loads of time trying to guess how much iphone x are going to be sold in a three month period totally misses the point. that's what he said a year and a half ago. >> they don't fit in my ears so they fall out and i'm walking over a grate, a sewer grate and they fall out and it's like they designed that. thank you. >> we'll be right back we aren't failing. our politicians are failing. that's why i'm running for president. to end the corporate takeover of the government. and give more power to the american people. that's how we'll win healthcare, fair wages, and clean air and water as a right. i'm tom steyer and i approve this message.

when i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. mmm... good. so i've spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. we are so good. we built a guide that uses ibm watson... to help the blind. it is already working in cities like tokyo. my dream is to help millions more people like me. and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk

boeing sharing a probe of what's being described as documents and in them employees boasted about bullying regulators into approving the 737 max without acquiring pilots to undergo training on simulators and phil joins us with more. >> the simulator training is important to understand. remember the selling point on the 737 max when boeing was going to their existing customers and whoever it might be will be you buy the max, you don't have to go through the

expense at the time and the hassle of additional simulator training with the pilots with that in mind, keep that in mind as we go through some of these comments and memos and e-mails and messages from boeing employees. one of them from the chief technical pilot says i want to express the importance of holding firm that there will not be simulator training required to transition from the older model of the 737 boeing will not allow that to happen we'll go face to face with any regulator that tries to make better requirements. another message is from one employee to another. would you put your family on a maxim you lay to trained aircraft i wouldn't the second employee answers, no. this is the quote that's going to get the most attention. this is the one that boeing is really going to struggle to live down one employee writes this airplane is designed by clowns that in-turn are supervised by monkeys. now the faa has had these documents and last night the faa

came out and said look there's nothing in these documents that provides new risks to the 737 max program. in other words, there's no smoking gun here there's nothing that says that a particular component or piece of software is the problem. it needs to be fixed or we're hiding it. that's not the issue here. the broader economy is whether or not the 737 simulators function effectively as they all do now as part of this program and also the culture at boeing that's what concerns lawmakers and the representative that chairs the house transportation committee. he is out with a response to these documents saying they paint a deeply disturbing picture of the length boeing was apparently willing to go in order to evade scrutiny from regulators and the public even as it's own employees were sounding alarms internally take a look at shares of boeing. i'm curious to see what the

reaction will be flush out all the bad news as much as you can. you got the new ceo that starts on monday. he made it clear that one of his mandates are to make sure. he has already reached out to the faa and reaching out to airlines and makes it clear they're turning the page at boeing so flush out these documents. let's see how much this weighs on the stock pick. >> phil, thank you for that. stick around we'll continue following the development from that jet crash in iran as well. we'll talk about that. and there's evidence that the plane was shot down by a missile perhaps unintentionally. they'll travel to talk about all of today's news surrounding

boeing as he's the former investigator in the national transportation board and phil as well let me start with you, greg. let's start with the comments that we heard with the e-mails we had a debate. i don't know if you heard about it earlier in the program about the culture of the company how troubling or not is this >> i think it's troubling from a perspective of the public, seeing the types of internal communications between employees. some of them whether they're disgruntled or making light of serious situations it paints a very bad light on boeing especially in the wake of two 737 max accidents. but it's the context of these e-mails are made known it's really important that the

faa having looked at these e-mails. some cultural issues the fact that there's internal bantering. they didn't see safety related risks. that they know about the technical pilot there. they made the news several months ago with his e-mails. everything referred to the simulator. it didn't refer to the airplane and i would just hope that when you look at the e-mails you have to keep them in context and see if that relates to the airplane or the simulator there's going to be a lot of issues and some of these comments may have been addressed to the simulator and they are also addressing how they felt like they have been pulling the wool over the faa's eyes on this situation plenty of people suggested that it was pilots that had not been

trained properly on these planes and that was part of the problem. if your simulator isn't working. and then you wind up with two crashes that could have been because they have been trained properly it does. you bring up a very good point but you have to remember, what was the difference this training and for the last year and a half the big thing is the understanding of what it is -- and when boeing came up with procedures after lion air that mimic the runaway that all pilots were trained to while there may not have been enough information given to the pilots, the fact is in the training itself what was different about what these folks were talking about in these current e-mails. versus the conventional training >> here's the hard part. clearly boeing is a great

american story it's a great american company. planes that fly in the air every single day without incident it's a magical tremendous situation. at the same time there's a max problem. plus there's e-mails that suggest the culture. can you divide these things? is it a period we talked about in terms of timing maybe the last couple of years and is it too much of a word in this instance. and in an accident investigation we always look at the culture. the corporate culture and the safety culture in an organization when i was with the board it's related to the airline did they have a detrimental safety culture or organizational

culture. were they operating in silos the information over the last year and a half has pointed to the fact that boeing did have a cultural problem internally? whether it was safety culture or organizational culture and it's going to be a priority for him to do not only an internal audit of his organization and they should probably get an external auditing group in there and compare and find out if, in fact, these organizational issues did have a very detrimental effect on safety now while the general public may perceive that, when you look at how long we have been certifying airplanes in the united states and how long boeing has been certifying these airplanes i really have a real hard time believing that with all of these comments and these e-mails that boeing would turn out an unsafe

airplane they have a lot of work to do. they have to get their culture fixed because going forward, that does reflect and does have an impact on today >> i have a question for you you know boeing well there's tens of thousands of workers out there and a vast majority of them are safety conscious and oriented to doing their job. at the same time, you and i both know there is a perception and there is a arrogance especially among the engineering crew that we know better we know better than you. you don't tell us how to do our job. if you were dave calhoun, the ceo at boeing, how do you change that you can talk about changing the culture. how do you get such a large group. a very talented group of engineers. >> it's going in and determining through an audit process and i want to see an external audit

rather than an internal audit. you have to get clean fresh eyes in there and the internal culture. they can go in there with a clean sheet of paper and start looking at the processes and the attitude i have done that with airlines and business in corporate aviation operators where i go in and i don't have anything to do with the organization. i can see and i can talk to people and i can understand in a way that there is no retaliation by a management -- if i talk to an employee that says these are the things that are wrong. and you really need to have somebody outside of boeing look at it in the grand scheme of things and they're working in

silos. i know that there isn't a lot of internal communication among organizational units in boeing and they have to break the walls down it was obvious with the max when they didn't talk to the military. >> did you believe there was an engine problem with the crash in baghdad? >> no, given the circumstances and having a lot of experiences. if it was a benign engine problem or a engine fire you have three very experienced pilots on the airplanes and one was an instructor pilot. we had in flight engine fires and it was handled by the crew the pictures almost immediately coming out of the wreckage you can see the puncture marks

on the side. especially the piece that has the window belt in it. and it means something from the outside penetrated inward. that is the spread of the wreckage and the fact that you don't have a main impact, all of that says something catastrophic happened in the air and not on the ground and it wasn't a conventional act. >> thanks for sticking with us and helping us through this morning. appreciate it as well. >> a check on this morning with market movers. here are the futures close to 29,000 on the dow we'll see it you can always watch us live on the go on the cnbc app. we'll be back. myww's been an amazing journey.

...it's almost like a challenge everyday to see how well i can eat and still enjoy myself all day long. i wake up every morning to see how much weight i've lost and how much better i look. myww join today with the ww triple play!

i can. the two words whispered at the start of every race. every new job. and attempt to parallel park. (electrical current buzzing) each new draft of every novel. (typing clicks) the finishing touch on every masterpiece. (newborn cries) it is humanity's official two-word war cry. words that move us all forward. the same two words that capital group believes have the power to improve lives. and that, for over 85 years, have inspired us to help people achieve their financial goals. talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information.

let's take a look at the biggest drivers and drags to the dow. he joins us right now and he has the look at that that 29,000 mark that we're almost out right now that was november 15th of last year since that time, these stocks are the ones that have been the biggest drivers of the dow from a percentagen standpoint up 17% united health group up nine. microsoft up 8%. particular attention to these

three. apple added around 30 points to that rally 150 points has come from goldman sachs and 170 has come from united health group. now let's take a look at the bears. take a look at chevron down 3 fkt from that mark. dow down 5%. home depot down 5% and walgreens down 12. home depot shed about 80 points and dragged it down by that much 240 points as well those were the biggest when it came to that. >> the one and only, thank you, sir. >> when we return, when it comes to political donations to the presidential candidates, where are employees putting their money? that's the question all morning and robert frank has the answer. >> good morning, they are feeling the burn at apple and starbucks where bernie sanders

is by far the favorite candidate for donations. pete buttigieg is the favorite and you're going to be surprised. follow the money, company and eadustry coming up after t he he brk. our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence. they help us with achievable steps along the way... so we can spend a bit today, knowing we're prepared for tomorrow. wow dad, do you think you overdid it maybe? i don't think so... what do you think, peanut? nope! honey, do you think we overdid it? overdid what? see? we don't think so, son. technically, grandparents can't overdo it. it's impossible. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement. weveryone, looknk isn'tat your phones. the design thinking, the digital engineering, security, blockchain, and we will be first to market! yes. when we do we launch? unfortunately, in 2 or 3,

hours. why the delay? cognizant is helping banks use digital technologies at scale to advance speed to market.

>> as you said, small donors have been the biggest driver this season. and certain companies have clear favorites. president trump is by far the favorite among workers in the oil and gas industry pharmaceuticals, health care professionals and the real estate industry. lawyers favored joe biden. elizabeth warren gets the most money from the employees and pete buttigieg has the big money from the big banks corey booker dominates donation of investment securities and

hedgefund professionals while the hands down favorite was kamala harris until she ended her campaign stores at the top of the list and dozens including apple and tesla and giving among facebook employees jp morgan, bank of america and pfizer while kamala harris lead employees at comcast and disney so interesting industry. >> probably worth emphasizing these are from the employees. >> correct that's what makes it more interesting in a grass roots environment. >> for more on where employees at some of america's largest corporations are going to support 2020 candidates we're now joined by political strategist frank and what surprises you. and it's not okay to take money from pacs, they're groups of

employees banning together and collecting money and giving more than what you could as an individual so it's okay for these candidates the whole campaign finance system frustrates the american people and this is a great example of that hypocracy. >> you could paint the giving from employees as more grass roots. it's not like they're rounding up the money and saying give it to them. >> a pac is still collecting money from employees and it just gives you a little bit more dollars. a little bit more bang for the buck. >> when you dive into these numbers and look at where employees are putting their money, are they voting until their own interest as employees on behalf of their companies or not? some of the candidates i see is

individuals supporting and they're almost antithetical to them themselves. >> they're employees. >> for example, internet companies are supportive of elizabeth warren and only wants to break up the companies that they work for. >> those are the woke millennial employees. >> i could interview you or we could interview frank but i wanted to understand. >> he could tell you the same thing. >> why they're making these choices. >> it's geographic the reason corey booker is collecting money from hedge funds is he's a senator from new jersey and he spends a lot of time on wall street. mayor pete, he is collecting money from investment banks because he worked for them so it makes sense. in other cases, i'm not surprised apple is donating as much money as it is and his

younger employees. and to a presidential campaign and younger people have just fallen in love with bernie and fallen in love we lith elizabet warren donald trump attracts more business oriented donor because his agenda is more business oriented and it's the people he has known throughout his career. >> can i just ask the specific -- i saw the list of the industries but from a specific company point of view where are the most donations coming from to the president >> so, a lot of it is in the oil and gas sector it's interesting the president doesn't rank at the top of many lists but he's often second or third in those lists for many companies particularly in those industries i mentioned.

but don't you think he would know that a lot of the contributions came from individual bank employees or would have more bank friendly policies would owe something to the teachers and teachers unions because of this grass roots money? >> well, for pete, there's a challenge. because this is an embarrassment. this is something that elizabeth warren and bernie sanders will use against him. that he's collecting money from the interests of corporations and an industry that the american people don't like but let's give these candidates credit that they're willing to take the money the idea that these big donors or employees could influence a candidate based on how much money they receive if those candidates are willing to stand up to their donors,

that's the integrity that most americans want so actually it's a good thing that they're willing to do this. >> frank, it's good to see you robert, thank you for bringing the story to us. >> thanks, guys. coming up, big hour, the december jobs report, got to move the market. one way or the other the numbers could certainly sway them we'll have the data, instant market reaction from our famous jobs panel the futures head of numbers right now. we're showing you what's going on here and we'll be right back in just a moment everything in the green. we'll see whether it stays there. and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk

right now on squawk box, it's jobs friday in america. we're just 30 minutes in counting from the december employment report and investors across wall street are getting ready. coming up we'll break down the latest factors influencing job growth and our latest analysis when the data hits. >> would you be a good sport and tell us a little more. >> oh, yeah. let me tell you something about tps reports. >> the final hour of squawk box

begins right now >> good morning, welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. our guest host today from strategics research partners take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour about a half hour from now we'll get the big jobs number so you can watch this. >> is it going to be big >> i'm hoping. >> you called it the big jobs number. >> it's a big event. an important event the dow right now would open up 5 points higher. you're looking at the s&p 500. >> what do you really think? >> the number to beat is 160,000 jobs. >> what do you think >> i am going say that within a

plus or minus margin of 5,000 i think it's going to be about 160. that's my margin of error. treasury yields right now. >> we might agree on that. >> you're looking at 1.855 and if you wanted the 30 year, you know, 30 year mortgage right now. not bad. >> we have a panel. >> i heard. >> a famous panel. >> yes, the labor market has been helping to drive the economy. we're less than 30 minutes from the release of the latest jobs report this one from december the consensus estimate the economy added 160,000 jobs the unemployment rate expected to stay low at 3.5%. let's bring in our panel the former chairman and professor and he gives good analysis if he stays on method and just stays with the fact that you do, you know all of a sudden the impeachment

partisanship and i'm hoping that's not going to happen today. just engaging what's going on. and you had a lot of insight i'm hoping that you're going to keep it on the up and up today can i count on you for that? >> it's a new year let's turnover a new leaf. >> let's do it like how i softened him up now kate moore is with us here on set and guest host jason. jason, welcome be ready, watch often. that's all. >> i may need to call you. >> i have been saying. i mean, we were back to three month averages, 205. and that's more than the work force can provide. is it not or have we moved into higher gear or are we going back to the 160

>> i think today i'm predicting that we're going to be above 160. we're going to be 180 or more because we're sometime between now and march. we're going to start getting really big numbers from the census we try to parse out what part is coming from that. >> i think the underlying economy you have a tale of two economies. anything touching the consumer and the job market is strong business investment and manufacturing is looking pretty weak so we're still trying to sort that out. >> do we have people that are not in the work force willing to come back. will there be any wage gains because of the tightness of the labor market >> you're getting at what the economists were all arguing about that and it's been four, five, six years that we have been expecting the wage gains would be bigger so we'll

probably keep chugging along and even this past year 2019 was pretty impressive for job growth it's the slowest job growth here since 2011 i think and it's a -- >> okay. >> do you have a number? >> 185 >> slightly above consensus. i think the important point is we are going to run out of good bodies at some point in 2020 we expect a consumer to get very strong we're leading into consumer stocks or growth opportunities i'm going to suggest for the overall equity market it was in order to move the market one way or another >> especially because of what we have seen recently. >> that's right.

i don't think the market moves much we're going to be looking more closely at earnings and geopolitical events and sort of policy events than we will be at this labor market number. >> all right everybody else has football, basketball, this is it for us, when that number hits at 8:30. it's really exciting what do you think? build it up a little for us? >> sure. so i'm also optimistic i'm also coming in with a number that's above consensus i think we have been on a pretty good trend the last three months in the labor market and i think we have been on a fine trend on the overall economy and i'm not sure why those things should be diverting. i think it's a good point that the census could -- numbers could add to that a little bit but overall we're going to see a strong retail activity in december and the healthy consumer his and her strong attitudes are going to show up in the labor market as well. are we going to run out of

people yeah i mean, i think if you look at the demographics it might suggest that we could but we know that there's a lot of people on the sidelines as well and people can enter and exit. >> so it's 180. >> i'm at 205. we'll be right on the quarterly trend. >> off to the races. what do you hink 130. >> 130 it doesn't change the fundamental strength of the consumer or the labor markets. so almost any number will be fine. >> we will have more

we'll be back with more from our panel staying with us. that's all over the board. we have 130 to 205 is what we have. >> also still to come this morning, designed by clowns and supervised by monkeys. up next we'll talk about newly released messages from inside of boeing about the 737 max that a key lawmaker calls daming. streaming with negative headlines catch up with the company this year? two top analysts join us to debate that next a reminder you can always watch us live on the go, on the cnbc app. stay tuned squawk box will be right back. turn on my tv and boom, it's got all my favorite shows right there. i wish my trading platform worked like that. well have you tried thinkorswim? this is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect

the value of the stocks you're interested in. now this is what i'm talking about. yeah, it'll free up more time for your... uh, true crime shows? british baking competitions. hm. didn't peg you for a crumpet guy. focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. ♪

hey. ♪hey. you must be steven's phone. now you can take control of your home wifi and get a notification the instant someone new joins your network... only with xfinity xfi. download the xfi app today.

up 46 points on the dow and the trifecta if we were to open and close that later today i think. >> newly released documents from inside of boeing are shining a fiercely negative light on the developments of the 737 max jet.

messages that boeing shared with the faa employees boasted about bullying regulators to approve without making pilots undergo simulator training others blasted the production process. one of the messages reading this airplane is designed by clowns who are in-turn supervised by monkeys. the faa said that the messages do not raise any new safety concerns and boeing called them completely unacceptable but the chairman of the house transportation committee called them incredibly daming joining us to talk more about this is seth kalpin. we should put this in context. these e-mails were released to the ffa earlier in december. the company has known about these issues that may explain the faa administrators crack down on boeing and changing the law of the law at this point. what do you think the fall out for the e-mail will be at this

point? >> so, this is all awful the news earlier this week about the simulator training that was a foregone conclusion probably knew all of that was going to come out and happen and finally got ahead of the story after nearly a year of always being the last to m coaround on something but no, this is all terrible struggling to come up with some kind of a way to put this in a less than awful light. these messages aren't always being circulated who knows if there's e-mails like this about other aircraft that haven't gone on to have the start that the max had

what does that mean now that the politicians are going to be involve and the overseers. >> here as the months go on we should have been closer to the recertification of the aircraft and it getting back in the air it seems like we're farther away i have always been of the opinion that people move past things they do. if you look at any crisis in the aviation industry or beyond it but this is just all such uncharted territory here that yeah, what is going to happen?

i thought there would be a hand full of people that say i'll wait until the next flight not operated by a max. i'm not sure at this point how many people are going to want to get on the first flight even if ultima ultimately we look back on this horrible start to an ultimately successful program but here you have boeing saying that. the only solice is if it will have improved from the state it was in when the employees were making this statement. we're still talking about aircraft different from others that we discussed before this was an aircraft where the technology was meant to correct issues physically with the plane that came from the fact that there was an updated version and

the new engines didn't fit like boeing wished they would have. >> do you think there's any chance that there's a much more significant restructuring of the 737 max that has to be done before it's recertified? >> at this point, i don't know if the e-mails change a lot in terms of the basic facts that we have known about the plane. >> as you pointed out the basic facts about this plane are not heartening. >> not to begin with, right? so this just carries that forward. and then the reports that maybe there's other physical things that have to be changed about the plane and reports a week or so ago which would make the whole decision to keep producing the plane. remember, it was supposed to be a software issue producing them and uploading the new software if you have to retrofit the planes it would be a whole mess it would take a long time to get

the planes already produced in the air. we have gone through a couple of months ago i said i guess there's a nonzero chance that this is all much worse than we think and i still think more likely than not, at some point here, not this quarter i don't know at this point, you know, from an airline perspective and passenger perspective this is mid january where the impact on airlines of having some grounded planes is minimal because you always have some parked planes for most airlines around the world. that's the case through most of february but as you get into spring break, passover, easter, memorial day then the impact ramps up and is anybody willing to bet that the planes are flying passengers by any of those dates? in time for the summer peak but as you said, the question isn't that it's the long-term and at this point, it looks worse, doesn't it >> yeah. thank you. it's good to see you today.

>> you got it, becky. >> meantime, facebook is flying high the stock up 66% since the beginning of last year despite facing anti-trust scrutiny and getting hit with that fine and ceo taking part in a heated hearing on capitol hill joining us for alook at what's been working for facebook. and the senior analyst covering technology good morning to both of you. >> good morning. >> good morning. >> man, you see terrible headline after terrible headline and you watch the stock continue to rise. what's going on? >> well, the stocks performance is effecting the fundamental side of business and user growth has come back. they're back on the platform data i'm looking at over the past

months pretty much and suggested that ad growth accelerated in that as well. and big investment year. and you like this stock? >> what's your target? >> i have a $300 price target. >> mark, you also have a higher price than where we are now but not as high. why? >> well, the stocks had a pretty big move off of the last quarter. it was closer to the 180-$190 level. so we'll see the trend line for expense growth that's really going to dictate, you know, as victor mentioned we're sort of at peak expense growth now in terms of leverage into next year we like the stock here

we think despite the big move that we had sort of on the bottom since you mentioned at the beginning of the year, the stock, you know, to us, when we talk to ip vnvestors has been underowned and it's been the last 6 to 12 months on break up fears that we think are well overblown. we just don't see advising a break up here this year. >> that's it -- >> you're looking for the stock to go higher. >> you're going to 242 is that right? >> yeah. 242 is our price target at the moment, correct. >> and i guess part of the question is the break up fear, how much of that is built into the stock or should it be built into the stock at all? how much of it has, as mark said, moved already? >> well, there's still fears that regulators will come in and try to break up the stock. i don't think that's going to happen i'm not sure exactly what but

instagram is so intertwined into the core platform. they use the same infrastructure, sales force. >> was it the headlines or the issue about the platform did people just miss the transportation of the platform in the last year to something that felt very tired to something else >> the headline dominated just -- there was a lot of headline risk around the stock but when investors took a look at the core fundamentals, the optionalty around the platform, you still have whatsapp and passeng messenger optimized. >> debating whether the ads are misleading which i thought were big issues but that's a complete waste of time. i hate to say it but as an investor, mark >> i think the ads platform, you know, generally speaking is the best in the industry i think there's no doubt

you talk to advertisers today no one comes close to facebook in terms of returns whether it's news feed or instagram or messenger that hasn't changed. i think what most people misinterpret is a lot of people like the ads that they're seeing particularly on instagram. so what facebook brings is still there. there's a disbelief that there's less and less utility on the platform but we actually hear the opposite when we do pollings and just generally hear feedback in terms of how the ad campaigns are working. so from a small business standpoint, this platform can bring the best utility. >> thanks, mark. >> you betcha. >> i'm not on facebook mark zuckerberg's stature for m

has grown immensely. i now like him more as mark zuckerberg more than jesse eisnberg. >> it's a low bar. >> for you, stick to your guns i'll decide myself whether the ads are okay don't let the woke culture consume and you change everything you're about to try to please these woke people. stay strong, mark. coming up, the december jobs report, right victor am i right or am i right >> coming up the december jobs report counting down in the big reveal. >> things aren't going well enough for you, stick around for the jobs report. plus with stocks soaring three keteniy chcal signs you need to be aware of. stay tuned you're watching squawk box on cnbc beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases.

comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. all working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gig-speed network. because beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. ♪ ♪ i've been a caregiver for 20 years. no two patients are the same. predicting the next step for them can be challenging. today we're using the ibm cloud to run new analytics tools that help us better predict and plan a patient's recovery. ♪ ♪ ultimately, it's helping thousands of patients return home. and who doesn't love going home.

the final countdown to the december jobs report is just minutes away we'll get expert predictions ahead of the breaking number when squawk box returns. i consulted with your grandmother's doctor. we can do the screening at her house. hi. this is the man that's going to check your eyes grandma. cognizant ai solutions are helping healthcare companies

advance diagnostics and prevent blindness in patients with diabetes. everything looks good. you have beautiful eyes. ♪ and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk while our competition continues to talk. whai tell clients, etfs can follow an index, but which ones target your goals? it's not about quantity. it's about quality. no trendy stuff. i want etfs backed by research. is it built for the long-term?

my reputation depends on it. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

kate you're at 185, jason at 130. austin said 180 and alex told us 205. steve very quickly tell us where you are. >> 138. >> 138 the consensus estimate is for

what 160. >> 160 is what we're watching for. ahead of this, the futures have been up this morning up by 51 points. nasdaq up by 37 and the s&p up by 7 points. so narcotmarket is waiting to sa happens here. >> 145,000 payrolls rose by 145,000 jobs in december just shy of expectations the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%. now average hourly earnings did rise by 3 cents in december to $28.32 that's a .1% increase over the month. a 2.9% increase over the year and that annual gain is the smallest that we have seen since july of 2018 average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory workers rose 3% over the year and that gain is also smallest

that those workers have seen since 2018 now estimates for job growth in previous months were also revised downward october's number was revised lower by 4,000 jobs from 156 to 152,000. november's number revised lower by 10,000 jobs from 266,000 to 256,000 jobs in total, that is 14,000 jobs fewer than previously recorded and that puts a three month moving average now at 184,000 jobs now the sectors that were driving growth in december, retail added 41,000 jobs the lesuire and hospitality industry added 40,000 jobs and health care sector added 23,000 jobs we saw job losses in manufacturing which was 12,000 jobs as well as transportation that lost 10,000 jobs. it's unchanged at 63.2% and the

broadest measure of unemployment fell from 6.9 to 6.7% which is a record low guys. >> thank you very much let's get some reaction from our jobs panel joining us around the table we have austin, alex, kate, steve and jason. let me get to you first. as you were going through the numbers i heard you say that a couple of times. >> a lot of things going on inside the way i look at this on the fly is i look at the negatives and positives and there's a lot of them. there's a statistic on that which is the net number of companies or businesses or industries that were increasing jobs i don't have that in front of me but for example, minus 12 on manufacturing after plus 58 the prior month. minus 10 on transportation and ware housing after plus 12 this is a lot of give back in here and look, rather than bore you with details i think the answer to this question is this job's number is a heads i win,

tails you lose for the market. i don't think this is the kind of thing that says you know what, let's worry about this. >> to emphasize that point, this was in line with consensus -- it was a little below -- in line for consensus with the unemployment rate but the dow is higher than it was before. >> the 256 stuck around and something that we can talk about later is we do not know, just picking up on the conversation that we had yesterday how retail sales employment works these days it could be that a lot of it shows up in transportation ware housing because the new retail clerk is the packaging guy or woman. so a minus 10 on transportation tells you that they may have started to lay off in december sometime where as the retail plus 41 was after minus 14 a lot of gyrations going on there. >> they would have toward the end of december. >> right december by the way is not the big holiday employment month it's october and november are when the retailers bulk up.

>> certainly, there's a date beyond you're not going to get your packages delivered in time if you're ordering online. >> that's right. >> and amazon basically you couldn't get anything delivered from after the 24th until the 27th or 28th. >> so you're publicly acknowledging how late you were in your christmas shopping >> no, i was trying to get other stuff delivered after that couldn't for several days. you are the closest at 138. >> it was really the kernen model. my model spit out the number my model has been out of whack for a little while. >> do you know what we should have known when adp does 100 we do 300. when they do 200 we do 100, right? what happened? didn't they have a real low number when we did 266. >> they did. >> didn't they have a high number on wednesday. >> what's the story there? >> i'd have to go back and look

but the work that i did yesterday or two days ago. >> you work so hard. >> i just run the numbers. basically learning how to use an excel sheet is what it comes down to. that's all there is to it. >> wait a minute. >> i don't know about joe's econometrics there but what happened on the government number. >> plus six. >> so we're still waiting for the census to show up. i think this number it's going to make a bunch of people nervous because like i say, you have these two economies, the consumer has been strong but manufacturing has been in decline and a lot of people feeling like they're already in recession. and since the manufacturing numbers aren't as negative as they are this month and we just got the report that 40% of companies have moved into the red in terms of reporting their earnings, i think there's going to be some growing anxiety among some of the investors.

when we think about what's effecting companies, this is one of the most critical elements. what's happening to wages in a tighter labor market and what impact does it have on margins if we're not getting as much wage pressure into the back end of 2019, or at least in moderation of it, then perhaps some of the fourth quarter of 2019, full year 2019 margin numbers are going to look okay i'll be watching that closely as companies report their earnings. >> so you're looking at the lower than expected rise in average hourly earnings as a good thing for margins and stocks. >> it's maybe not a great thing for additional consumer income growth but it's not the world's worst thing for equity investors who have been focused on a decline in margins and talking about when that might happen over the last five years. >> i'm fascinated by the fact that the main model, intellectual model the fed has been using which is the phillips curve is basically dead. >> dead.

>> and i -- i agree with kate where you're at 3.5% unemployment rate. you're still getting decent wage gains but they're not -- they're certainly not galloping forward. >> what does that mean for the broader working population and how does that play into the political sphere. >> the good thing i would say is. >> where inequality has reigned. >> i would argue that the fed is probably the single biggest contributor to income inequality and they may be the most responsible for president trump being president. there's probably a thousand people in the fed that just painted in exasperation in me saying that but in my opinion all the liquidity that they provided larnlgely wound up in financial assets. >> i totally understand that argument we had it a lot of times since all of these actions started taking place in 2008 why do you think that that's the reason that donald trump is

president. >> i think the policy mix that you had after the financial crisis which was very easy money but tight financial regulation greatly benefitted wealthy people more greatly benefitted wealthy people than the average person. >> let me bring you in just as somebody that was in the obama white house when some of these decisions are being made by the federal reserve and others what do you say to that? >> the white house doesn't control the fed. donald trump tried to reintroduce this he tried to introduce a thing that the president harangs the fed chair. before that we never had anything like it. >> as an economist from your economic perspective during this time do you agree that that's what caused some of the inequality >> my view becky is that the right alternative to compare it to is if the recession were even deeper and even longer because the fed was tighter in it's monetary policy would that be better for inequality?

and i don't think it would there is a component that the markets recovered faster than the real economy recovered. >> i don't disagree with you to some extent but the question i have therefore is do you also give the fed credit for the current state of the economy and the markets? >> i think you have to although i do think that my own view is that monetary policy has exhausted itself in terms of its ability to influence economic growth and not just in the united states but globally i don't know what it is now, $12 trillion in negative yielding debt is telling you that you're pushing on the string. that it's not effective. you need other policies, particularly in europe and japan. like fiscal policy to move the ball forward. >> i don't think it's done moving if they were to tighten significantly that would -- >> i agree but to continue to throw money at the problem. >> i just want to respond to jason that at least from the fed's point of view, tens of millions of people got lower

mortgage rates and tens of millions of people perhaps avoided a much deeper recession that otherwise would have -- >> let me finish andrew and a less of a hit to their incomes because of what they did and are worried about deficits in a way that they're not today i think it weighs very heavily. >> i give you qe-1 and qe-2 when you get to 3 and 4. >> i agree 100%. >> but the reason i asked is i have seen you i think on this broadcast say that the obama administration under the obama administration, the industry was effectively terrible but held up or propped up effectively by the

fed and the administration should get no credit but the fed should but i would argue with you that if you believe that you have to believe the same thing for what's going on right now. >> listen, i think there's also another factor in this which is financial regulation so you have -- which the administration does control and i agree with austin. the obama administration nor the trump administration controls the fed but they do control bank regulations and if you have easy money and tight bank regulations. >> alex, how many were there, though >> i don't put the electoral outcomes in the hands of the federal reserve board. we need to think about the regional economies if we want to think about the role of

economics. we need to think about what's happening in the labor market in key states with the numbers that we saw today with a negative number on manufacturing a downward revision overall for the three month average here it's small but not insignificant. when we see in a couple of weeks what that means at the state level i think we're going to see a little bit more softness and that's going to be a challenge in terms of the economy. it's early of course but i don't think that it's the metric that we want to be focussing on is the fed and i think that we want to be looking at our labor markets on the local and regional level >> joe already owes me money because the growth rate was too slow in 2018 and now it went down.

>> it was only 2-9 last year which doubled your average over 8 years. >> last year was 2019 and it's going to be like 2.2. >> 2018. >> when we get the full 8 years of trump then we'll know what it was. >> i'll buy you your taco bell dinner you love milking this. come back. i'll take you anywhere, any time. >> you owe me money, joe all i want you to do is pay me. >> i owe you food. >> pay me what you owe me. >> i owe you food. i can send it to you grub hub. >> all right i'll send you $20. >> the manufacturing sector, it may be that the trade war is showing up here in these

numbers. >> that's interesting. >> we talked about the fall off in manufacturing call it july of 2018 it was growing 2.3% year over year it was now growing and i'll give you the number, 0.36%. so it has really come off quite a bit. >> we had seen, and i'm basing this purely on one story from this week. part of what i had seen blamed for that is lots of trucks were ordered after the tax laws changed and now you're seeing the pull back afterwards >> one is i think there's a piece of that in there >> the other thing is you cannot

separate anything in heavy equipment from what's going on in the oil industry. i don't know that it's a big seller into the service business but right now and into the past year or so, speaking about the obama administration, the last year and a half see veerly hurt the economy. it was hurt by the decline in oil prices it came back under trump and now it's down again so when you look at business investment you cannot exclude what's happening given that remember, we have saudi arabia inside the united states when it comes to oil production we're that country now number one, it is right that we saw a pop post the tax cuts in an election year you're always going to get weaker cap

ex even though i think we have a pretty solid economy and actually some outside of the u.s. all of these things should be positive and of course getting represented in some of the good stock market action. it pays to wait and that's going to be the baseline which is not bad for the bottom line on earnings. >> i want to thank our panel today. i appreciate all of you being here kate, steve, jason you're staying with us. austin and alex, i want to thank you for being with us too. >> steve is not part of the panel, we don't need to thank him but thank you. >> are you part of the panel >> yes >> and your in house lackey that you throw under the bus got it right. >> he is -- >> you tried to blame him.

>> no. he said well the guy that works for us that has this number. >> before you joined the table he was the only one low balling it at 130. you came in at 138 but he had to go after everybody had gone with real high numbers the whole way through. >> i'm not a member of the panel i'm a member of the staff so i'm keeping quite so we can go to break like producers want to do. >> >> thoughts on the move ahead of the opening bell. only 17 points now the most important technical levels you want to come bk acto see how good i am at that. don't go anywhere. squawk box is coming right back.

well cocome back to action s action is. december jobs 145,000, unemployment rate remains steady at 3.5%. the markets have kind of hung in there. the dow futures had been indicated up by about 50 points as we heard the news still indicated up but by this point 22 points. s&p futures up by 5.5 and the nasdaq indicated about 32. you've been watching treasuries the ten-year chart so you seed the yield sitting at 1.851%, so again, the deal went down and back to where they were beforehand and quick look at the

dollar, too. the dollar right now 97.44 is where the dollar index is. joe? >> thanks, back with dow 29,000. check on the important technical levels we should be watching katie stockton, fair lead strategies, founder and managing partner. the last time you were on, i don't know have we had a down day? >> doesn't feel like it. >> the s&p specific number something big closing in on something that could be important. >> 3280 say long-term measured move projection from the breakout we saw in 2016, looks like we'll get close to that today. >> four years ago? >> isn't that wild finally here we are, ceremonyious 3280 has been the target for years now, and of course, with it now basically having been met we can assign a new upside target >> no way it i thereof when a plan comes together this is it >> we obviously have a very

well-established uptrend the way we do t we look it, we e rally into the last corrective phase and project it higher. it assumes the trend will maintain itself and get the market to about 3475, that would be a 6 to 12-month target for the s&p 500 based on that process. >> so that sounds like it would confirm the average strategist high single digit return for the dow. >> that's right and off to a strong start >> technicals matching up with fi fundamentals that makes me uncomfortable. i don't know what else? how about retail >> we can talk about retail on the back of the jobs data. underperformance in 2019, of course this is xrt or the spdr retail etf. notice here we had a long-term trading range established, within that range we're sort of overbought and due for a pull-back, so i think broader retail should pull back, this

pink line is the 200-day moving average and shows support not too far from current levels. so i think pull-back, higher low and a breakout from this range which would be a big deal for retail, when you take a target from a range, you kind of look at the width of it and project it higher. that would be a big deal for retail >> as far as a secular trend, one stock has had more to do with what's happening here than any other, and that's your third thing to look at >> amazon is a holding within that etf but a small one and here it is it's really one of the things, stocks that stands out to me as having good technical upside potential, long-term uptrend, of course, high or low very recently and within that, we've got a nice triangle formation, and a breakout above the 200-day moving average not shown here. that breakout presents a catalyst that's intermediateiate term momentum driven and we'll see new all-time highs above that resistance level which is about 2050 >> still don't short it? what if i short it at 500 and a

thousand and 1500. still not a short? >> still not a short i recommend shorting stocks and long-term uptrends like this, you to have a to two three-week time horizon a little overbought short term but pull-back to that 200 day. >> over 3,000? >> the triagele is a high probability. if we see the breakout to new all-time highs i wouldn't roll it out not necessarily this year. >> when you come back, let us know maybe a 3280 then. who knows. andrew, back to you. thanks >> thank you that was fun to watch and exciting to know that the technicals may push us even higher let's get to the new york stock exchange and find out where jim cramer whether things will get burned higher as well. jim, you looked at the jobs numbers, you thought what? >> well, it's what you want. the fed is not going to be in your way, don't fight the fed, don't fight the tape, both of them are going in the right direction. a lot of research again today

saying pass of it things about the same things over and over again, and yet every time it happens, people lap it up, so without the, if you can minimize the fed with this number, talk about how there's going to be a signing next week of the historic trade deal, could you see how people are going to continue to bid up until something goes wrong, and right now, nothing's going wrong >> i don't know if you have a take on the clowns and the monkeys that we heard about this morning at boeing? >> i'm going to offer a contrary view i know it can always get worse i know that defazio can be tough on them because he's not happy, but it does feel kind of like could it really, could anyone, are there like even more bad emails monkees and clowns sounds like me before i became jimmy chill. >> we're calling you that, right? >> chowderhead, the sunshine, sparky, moron, i mean there's some other choice ones

jedi warrior this just felt kind of, could it get worse? it's really bad. >> and it's not the clowns su r supervising the monkeys which i could see but the monkeys supervising the clowns you're more f'd. >> joe, i follow you on twitter. this is kind of when guys don't like you, or like me, they hit us with monkey, and we kind of, you know, say all right, that's pretty bad >> i thank them for monkey >> these guys must read your twitter file and come up with these terms. >> i'm joey chill now. i'm joey chill i'll love everybody. actually, i blocked a few people just now, they were mad. >> jim, thank you. see you in a couple of minutes >> have a good weekend >> for "squawk on the street." don't miss a great line-up of guests monday from jpmorgan health care summit, the ceo of glaxosmithkline, gilead, cvs and more

stay tuned "squawk box" returns in a moment our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence. yeah, they help us with achievable steps along the way... ...so we can spend a bit now, knowing we're prepared for the future. surprise! we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. oooh, well... i'm good at my condo. oh. i love her condo. nana throws the best parties. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement.

whwhat do you see?he world, we see patterns. relationships. when you use location technology, you can see where things happen, before they happen. with esri location technology, you can see what others can't. ♪

the futures this morning are indicated higher still this comes after all three of the major averages set new records yet. the dow futures now indicated up by about 32 points

s&p futures up by 6.5 and the nasdaq up by 33 and of course this comes after the jobs number was a little weaker than had been anticipated the treasuries right now, jobs came in up 145,000 for the month. the ten-year is yielding 1.862%. have a great weekend, everybody. we'll see you back here next week ♪ good friday morning. well could "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla, david faber and jim cramer at the new york stock exchange. futures are steady as the december jobs number comes in 145,000, slightly below estimates. some disappointing wage data, smallest increase in almost a year and a half. it st pay-back for november's outsized gain? we have it covered top to bottom mild price action in europe this morning, ten-year yield dips down to