all in most of the time and that made jennings do the same. how quickly they do the calculations to know how much i can wager and not get caught if he wagers everything he's got. >> absolutely. it was exciting and fun to watch. >> i would last for about 12 second. >> it was really hard, the categories >> "closing bell" right now. welcome to the "closing bell," everyone. good afternoon, i'm wilfred frost. the rest of the market is moving in the opposite direction. we are above 29,000 on the dow, set for a record all-time closing high with 59 minutes left. >> and i'm contessa brewer the u.s. and china signed phase one of the trail deal, as the tension now moves to phase two the dow, the s&p and the nasdaq

have set new all-time highs today with corporate earnings sending some mixed messages to investors. and the target miss rippling through the market, we're seeing some take a hit. joining us for the full hour, paul hicky, co-founder of the spoke investment group do you see any interplay between these big stories that we're watching today >> so i think combined, they play into themes that we've been looking at coming into the year. so the pros and cons of the market heading into 2020 now, were pretty much evenly split. and the target could be a sign that maybe the economy is a little bit weaker than people are seeing we're seeing weaker than expected data. on the positive side, we're seeing the market continue to hit new highs. and the number one positive we look at is don't fight the tape. when we see new highs like this, you don't want to fight the market and trade is important it's not necessarily a positive

or negative, but at least we've got this behind us and there's very little in the way of expectations for this phase two that we're looking forward to as it's been pushed out to pretty much the election, no one is expecting much until after the election now at this point. >> paul, we'll get back to you shortly. let's drill down on the three big stories. wilfred is covering the bank earnings courtney reagan has details on targets disappointing holiday sales and kayla in washington with more on today's trade deal signing. >> so bank stocks are selling off today despite another set of earnings beats, with some qualifications bank of america had a light beat on top and bottom, but showed interest rate sensitivity more than yesterday's earnings reports. the margin declined 7 basis points, and jpmorgan's only fell one basis point. importantly, the stocks started slipping when the cfo said we

could expect the nii in the first two quarters of 2020 to be a bit lower. >> goldman sachs had a big revenue beat a reported eps miss, but a sizable eps if you strip out a litigation charge of $1.1 billion based on various conversations with sources, they are close to a settlement on the one scandal. the other qualifying factor for them was that the main part of the beat came in equity investments and trading, both of which can be seen to be lumpy or temporary. but the key reason for the interday recovery were because expenses were only because of one-offs and provisions were only because of strong growth in the apple card as opposed to specifically bad loans you have to say as well for gold man, given the setup they had coming into this, and they're

outperforming the other banks by 2%, it's an impressive quarter for them. >> and it does seem that they have been able to manage around the lower interest rates by focusing on other parts of their businesses. >> they're not as linked to the interest rates as the big retail banks, a great comparison with bank of america versus goldman sachs. it's certainly as well for the quarter their higher exposure to equity markets and the equity investments area and fixed income trading played into their hand somewhat. but the long-term proof of where investors like what they're doing will come after investor day. but they got a thumb's up for the quarter today. >> so i think on the goldman sachs front, we really have liked the stock for a while now on their play of the move into the consumer place and what we've seen in the reports from the banks over the last two days is we haven't seen any meaningful uptick in charge-offs. so let's telling us that banks aren't seeing a deterioration of

the consumer despite some concerns today so that helps to offset any concerns you're seeing on the part of target and the capital return of these companies that are going to be returning to shareholders is a great play going forward. >> we've heard from five of the big six, including jpmorgan and it appears banks were on the president's mind today during the trade deal signing. >> jpmorgan chase, they just announced earnings and they were incredible w where are you? they were very substantial, will you say thank you, mr. president, at least? i made a lot of bankers look very good. >> i understand from sources that because jpmorgan of course has recently been granted majority licenses for some of their subsidiaries in china that they felt it was important to be at the signing when they were invited. jamie diamond was otherwise engaged and not able to do and mary o mary otis was there.

i didn't manage to hear whether jamie diamond thanked the president. but either way, i thought that was amusing. >> it was a very entertaining press conference. >> it was about a 20-30-minute break. >> stocks moving higher in today's session but target sitting out the rally. courtney reagan has more at headquarters. >> target holiday sales were up just 1.4%, well short of expectations of around 4% for the full quarter and well below the recent strong sales trends that target has seen comparable digital sales, what happened apparel, essentials and beauty were up, but key holiday categories, toys, electronics, home, which make up about a third of holiday sales those were weak. toys were flat

target's toy sales have grown for 21 straight quarters as it has expanded the inventory, trying to pick up some of the market share loss from to toys"r"us. they actually grabbed 20% of the market share in 2018, so many are wondering is that now over back over to you. >> thanks very much for that down 7% as you said. turning to the other big story out of washington today, the signing of the phase one trade deal with china. kayla was there in the room and joins us now. >> wilf, the event was a couple of hours wrong, but the events are going to be reverberating on the campaign trail for the rest of the year. president trump ran in 2016 on holding china's feet to the fire economically and even though today was a partial trade deal, it was still an unprecedented one capping off two years of at times rocky negotiations

>> our negotiations were tough, honest, open and respectful, leading us to this really incredible break through most people thought this could never happened it should have happened 25 years ago, by the way. but that's okay. >> president trump has been focused on the trade deficit throughout these talks and to that end china is pledging to buy about $200 billion in additional u.s. goods over the next two years the breakdown is about $78 billion in manufacturing, about $50 billion in energy, and some purchases in services and agriculture as well. of course the president has been talking about farmers who have born the brunt of the retaliation and needing to make them whole as part of this deal. china will also allow more foreign financial activity wilf, you just talked about jpmorgan they're going to be going further than before to open up the sector and they will be facing potentially criminal charges for stealing technology.

but even so, ambassador robert lighthizer said it's not ideal, it didn't get everything but it's a good first step. >> thank you very much for that. let's continue the discussion and bring in the executive vice president and head of international affairs at the u.s. chamber of commerce, who was also in the room for the signing. thank you so much for joining us how significant is this moment >> i just came back from beijing and i have to say it was quite significant. i was there in 2000 when china and the united states signed the bilateral deal that led to way to china's entry into the wto and i remember the excitement in the room and the hope for china's integration into the world economy. this deal comes at a pivotal moment in the u.s.-china relationship we needed relief on escalation of tensions and we needed to see a reduction of tariffs and we needed to see improvement in market access, intellectual property, and in other areas

like forced technology transfer. we didn't get everything we wanted like ambassador lighthizer said, but we needed this step in the right direction. now we've got to see the implementation of the deal and move on to a phase two negotiation. good start but more work needs to be done. >> where does more work need to be done? >> i've been working on this relationship for over 25 years we've not been able to get to the subsidy issues china has massive subsidy still in place that make an unfair trading relationship be complicated. we have to deal with data, localization, discrimination issues and cost data flows that are core to technology and financial firms, access to the market in a transparent and fair way. we've got to deal with the corporate credit system in place. so big issues that go to the core of the structure of the economic model of china and these are not going to be done overnight but they've got to be addressed ultimately if we're going to improve the

relationship. >> in terms of the significance and the line in the sand as it were of today's signing, do you think it could still go backwards again or is it just now a question of whether or not or how soon or not we get to the next stage of phase two? >> well, i think there's always the challenge about the relationship that it's multi-faceted and it's never a straight line. we are dealing with the signing today of a trade agreement, but we're also talking about export controls and other issues in the last week. so the issues that are in this relationship are complex, but the two sides have to keep working at it. so we're going to have some bumps in the road along the way, but i'm confident that if the two governments do fully implement this agreement, we'll see improvements in our access to the market for financial service firms, obviously for farmers. i sat next to one, a rice farmer and also of course manufacturing goods. now, having said that, if we don't get to the structural issues in the relationship then we're going to have some challenges that are more than

just bumps in the road because this goes to the competition not just on trade but on technology, which i think is really core to improving the relationship overall and ensuring we don't have a decoupling on that front. >> do you have any concern that the chinese will have trouble meeting the $200 billion target in buying u.s. goods and services >> well, that's been a question all day. it's an aggressive target, no question about that. but it's aggressive, ambitious and it's needed. we do need to see an increasing amount of exports to china, not just because we're about leveling the trade volume between the two countries, but because the market has been closed and it's not just china's commitment to purchase goods or agricultural products. it's about eliminating standards and regulations that have prevented us from doing business in that market in a fair, transparent and nondiscriminatory basis. so these are fundamental issues

to the relationship. so i'm hopeful does it ambitious, yes does it require china and united states governments to work with the private sector closely, yes. we'll see how it comes about. >> thanks so much for joining us >> thank you. still to come, a little bit later on the show we'll talk more about the phase one trade deal and what comes next with marc short, chief of staff to vice president pence >> and after the break, the run of new highs has many analysts playing catchup. we'll take a look at just how many price target increases we've seen this year and what it rwd.kemong the mart vi foar this is the age of expression. everyone has something to say. but in a world full of talking, shouldn't somebody be listening? so. let's talk. we are edward jones. we're built for hearing what's important to you.

one to one. edward jones. it's time for investing to feel individual.

here we have about 45 minutes left of trade. let's send it to mike santoli for today's market dashboard. >> school is in session and we're going to look at grade inflation on wall street, people handing out very generous scores and failing a test, target studied up for holiday season and its sales fell a little bit short. and then honors and demerits, big split between the high valued and cheapest ones and then good work habits, an

indicator of domestic economic work getting done. first of all, take a look at this chart, the s&p 500 over the last ten years, alongside this measure from our friends at sentimenttrader.com that shows the number of price target increases relative to the number of earnings estimate increases so in other words, when this number is very high, as it is right now, it went above this threshold. you're seeing a lot of analysts raising their share price targets without necessarily saying we think the fundamentals are also looking brighter. so clearly when you've had this persistent rally in the market, analysts feel pressure to raise the price target or say sell the stock at these levels. so the previous time we were around here, the early 2018 experience where we also had a head long rally. also in early 2016, that was a time when we were coming off of a major low and the market itself had moved a long distance in a short period of time. but we were not at a significant

market high at that point. something to keep in mind. it's another indicator that sentiment, bullishness is almost being created by the market itself because it refuses to pull back here, guys. >> thanks so much for that you kind of alluded when the momentum is this good, you don't want to bet against it >> yeah, and what's interesting is we were looking at something similar this morning, this is the first time since 2004 that the average share price of russell 1,000 stocks is above the average analyst price target so we're seeing the level is higher than the actual price targets by analysts, which helps explain why analysts are starting to trip over themselves raising price targets because they're very behind f. you're working at a bank and your price target is below where the stock is trading, you can't really have the buy on it. >> 41 minutes now before the bell and the dow -- we're still in record close territory, the nasdaq and s&p 500 all in the green. up next, pelaton getting a pop

after the company said the high-end bikes are more than just a fad that's next. >> and mortgage applications jumping 30% last week as the rlring buying season comes eay. we'll discuss what's behind the surge in today's market zone woman: my reputation was trashed online.

i felt completely helpless. my entire career and business were in jeopardy. i called reputation defender. vo: take control of your online reputation. get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender.com. find out your online reputation today and let the experts help you repair it. woman: they were able to restore my good name. vo: visit reputationdefender.com or call 1-877-866-8555. we're committed to making college more affordable., that's why we're keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. - [woman] i knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. - [narrator] find your degree at snhu.edu.

high protein low sugar tastes great! high protein low sugar so good! high protein low sugar mmmm, birthday cake! and try pure protein delicious protein shakes welcome back to "closing bell." time to get word on the street bernstein downgrading beyond meat on valuation considerations the near-term sales potential in

the u.s. is already priced in. currency maintaining a $106 price target on the stock. zyng affirm is saying they're well positioned to build abroad and scaled portfolios, hitting its highest level since may 2012. >> and web bush with a $37 price target on pelaton. they're saying survey results and analysts saying they don't think pelaton will prove to be a fad. the subscription business can reach 4 million subscribers. the stock today up 2 pa3/4% they're talking about the subscription, but also the rollout of new products, a rowing machine, a cheaper treadmill. what do you think of pelaton >> so no position in the stock and it's not a stock i'm particularly attracted to right

now. but they have the first mover advantage and you can sort of equate it to tesla other competitors are going to come in, but you're not going to get like the nautilus that announced a competing product and the stock went up last week. but none of your friends are using it. >> let's bring in the analyst behind the call. james, good to see you today let's talk a little bit about how you get to this number of 4 million subscribers, that's the potential. >> sure. so we can start with 129 million households in the u.s., roughly half of that are people earning more than $50,000 a year you continue to whittle that number down, sort of based on the survey work that we did. we get to about a 15 million household number, and that's the number of people that we think cannot only afford it, but are interested potentially in owning

the product. and then from there, we think that they can get to peak subscribers within the us of about 3 million. you add another million to that internationally and that's where we get our 4 million number from. >> do you care mainly about the sub revenue or is the original sales relevant >> i think the two are clearly connected to one another but i think from a valuation perspective, if you can convince investors that you're building a large, profitable, sustainable subscription business, investors are falling all over themselves to be a part of those types of companies. and ultimately i think that's what pelaton is doing and i think management makes it no secret that's how they want this company to be valued in the long-term, and i think a lot of their actions would support that that's their long-term view. >> is there still litigation overhang from the music

publishers or not? >> it's hard for me to say that that's entirely behind this, but i think the majority of it is. basically on a go-forward basis they pay essentially a percentage of revenues toward the music studios. periodically they have to then pay sort of one time lumpy payments for content used in the past, but i actually think that should be a tail wind in fiscal 2020 and beyond as we lap a lot of those one-time payments. >> james, is there any other company that's positioned to get pelaton a run for its money? >> i don't think so. so based on the survey results that we did, very few of the many alternatives that are out there really rose to the level of being a legitimate threat to pelaton. i guess the one company that we're going to be following pretty closely is sole cycle, looking to make an at-home bike. they've teased that that's going to come out at some point this

year and i think a lot of consumers, just given the brand strength of that sole cycle name in that cycling space would at least be willing to give that a shot, or at least a look. obviously the specs, the pricing and timetable are important. >> i see in your research you're on about 12 times average workouts per month from subscribers. i reckon i'm a little ahead of that, actually probably 13, 14. where do you fall? >> i'm impressed probably less than that. >> the average has gone up to 12.01 now. >> probably less than that i would tell you that i was initially a skeptic about all of this i got the product, i was impressed with the hardware and the software but really the work that we did on the consumer side doing some of the survey work that we did really blew me away. i think there's a significant portion of people that don't own the product that are interested

in the product and then, among actual pelaton owners, pelaton users, satisfaction was through the roof 97% of people were satisfied based on the work that we did. two-thirds of people had lost weight nearly 50% of people that owned the product actually said it made them happier. and so with results like those, i think they have a bright future ahead of them. >> two-thirds have lost weight do you see >> fantastic it's paying off for you. >> i have a friend who got one and he says he's thrown up three times after. >> i haven't thrown up, but i'm losing weight. james, thank you so much still to come, we're looking at an under-the-radar way to play tesla. >> up next, target down big today, trading about $116 per share. we'll speak with an analyst who says the stock is more likely to hit $200 in the next 12 months than it is to fall below the

$100 level as we head to break, here's a check on bonds treasury yields moving lower today, the bench mark ten-year falling below 1.8% "closing bell" will be right back >> announcer: the bond report is sponsored by pimco ♪ to take care of yourself. but nature's bounty has innovative ways to help you maintain balance and help keep you active and well-rested. because hey, tomorrow's coming up fast. nature's bounty. because you're better off healthy. car vending machines and buying a car 100% online.vented

now we've created a brand new way for you to sell your car. whether it's a year old or a few years old, we want to buy your car. so go to carvana and enter your license plate, answer a few questions, and our techno-wizardry calculates your car's value and gives you a real offer in seconds. when you're ready, we'll come to you, pay you on the spot, and pick up your car. that's it. so ditch the old way of selling your car, and say hello to the new way-- at carvana.

welcome back we've got 29 minutes left of the session. we've slipped quite a lot since the show began we're now only up about 58 points on the dow, back below 29,000, and the nasdaq in fact just negative. here are the key things. the u.s. and china signed phase one of the trade deal, and the tension now moves to a potential phase two. the dow, s&p and nasdaq set all-time interday days at the moment with corporate earnings sending mixed messages to investors and target's missed sales is sending waves through

the market time for a cnn news update. >> here's what's happening at this hour. a tennessee national guard base is on lockdown following reports of a suspicious person with a rifle being spotted on the ground there are no reports of any injuries authorities say the situation is still developing former national security adviser michael flynn has moved to withdraw his guilty plea after the justice department reversed its position on prison time, recommending he serve six months flynn had pled guilty to lying to the fbi over conversations with russia's ambassador during trump's presidential transition. jeff bezos is not getting a warm become from some business owners in india. a trade group representing 70 million merchants filed protests in 300 cities claiming amazon engages in predatory pricing which is hurting their business. and the recruiting site glass door is out with its best

jobs in america. front end engineer, strategy manager and recruiter took the top spaces you are up to date that's the news update i'll send it back downtown to you. >> it seems extreme to burn his photograph just because you don't like his pricing >> it has to do with the number of really small merchants in india and they feel like they're getting basically pushed aside >> i mean, i feel like they could have maybe burned the word amazon instead of the individual. >> yes >> but come to think of it, there's probably some small business owners who would like to do the same thing here in the noid, b united states, but haven't that we know of. >> sue, thank you. we'll see you again next hour. let's send it to mike santoli for the second installment of the mark dashboard, mike. >> of course target shares down today around 7% at the moment

after they had a great run they failed a bit of a test when it came to top line growth in the fourth quarter take a look at the analyst ratings. over the course of 2019 and into this year, analysts kind of warm, the yellow is the percentage of buy ratings. it's not excessive by any stretch and the price target here is really not all that far above the average price. so basically the performance of the stock and the company seem to get the street on board with the story. this doesn't necessarily seem like it's poised to change take a look at the valuation picture because that was a dramatic element of last year. a steep discount to the market at the beginning of the year and then kind of ground its way up look at these quick vertical pops in the stock after it reported earnings. that was target kind of winning the benefit of the doubt on the operating side some of that is being undone right now. this is target's valuation on a

forward basis compared to walmart. it kind of made its way above 80% of walmart's pe. i don't think it's changed any of the overall trends but clearly a little bit of questioning about the new-found bullishness. >> and despite target's drop today,our next guest says the stock is more likely to hit $200 this year than fall below $100 a share. it's at $116 at the moment let's bring in president of st retailers. let's a big call so talk us through why you're so confident they're going to recover. >> paul just pointed out that i'm actually dressed like a bull's-eye i do not put that together today. a couple of years ago i was on with you and i was arguing that there was a seven multiple spread between walmart and target because walmart started its investment phase earlier, and it kind of went around the

turnaround target started their investment phase two years later and they're just starting to come out the other side so you look at the multiples now and say target is a 17, walmart is a 22. i would argue that target should be at least what walmart's multiple is if you see what they're doing particularly with the store renovations. >> i guess the market has come around to the fact that target was playing catch catchup to where walmart was. so you're saying today's miss doesn't derail the thesis, it's just a one-off. >> yes, it was a disappointing number, but their comps on a two-year basis are still more than 7%. their traffic is still positive. who has positive traffic in retail big box stores nobody, except target and walmart has a mix of ticket. so i think they command a multiple that's a standout. >> but when you're looking at where they missed on electronics and on toys in the holiday season, target says it doesn't really know what's going on.

do you >> so let's break that down. so toys was flat, right? so last year we had these phenomenal toy numbers because the year before toys"r"us went bankrupt so they got a huge share of gain in the door. consumer electronics, which is a low margin business, that decelerated significantly. so we can argue that best buy is doing a better job and continuing to gain market share, we can also argue that perhaps with the fear of tariffs, there was some pull-forward sales into the summer, which is something i argued a while back that actually the "fast money" guys laughed at me about. >> you mentioned tariffs the trade deal today, obviously these big retailers have been able to negotiate with suppliers. how much of that do you think is going to stick >> so that's the fantastic think. the trade thing has not been fantastic for bib, but in the long-term the big guys that are getting stronger and stronger

are squishing the little guys and going back to their vendors and saying you've got to play ball with us so they've squeezed them and as tariffs are removed, if they are removed, they are lower cost of goods and they've edged up pricing already, so margins are going to expand perhaps even in consumer electronics. >> we heard from the retail industry leaders association that getting to phase two and getting some of these tariff rollbacks ultimately done is critical. >> and prices are sticky once they go up, they're sticky. >> thank you appreciate that. this agreement offers some relief, but we need certainty and predictability to plan and invest up next we have your last chance trade. >> plwe've had kind of a peak, people have said different times golden ages of television. we've had a peak of that i think it's going to go down from here. >> coming up, we'll ask media

'lecutive ben silverman if he ageshel lay out where he thinks the streaming wars are heading that's later on "closing bell. driven solutions and services. change healthcare is thrilled to be joining the nasdaq family. every day we are working on behalf of those who expect more from the healthcare system. our customers and partners push us, inspire us, and make us better. together, we make the healthcare system better for all.

doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. you should be mad that this is your daily commute. you should be mad at people who forget they're in public. and you should be mad at simple things that are unnecessarily complicated. but you're not mad, because you're trading with e*trade, which isn't complicated. their app makes trading quick and simple so you can strike when the time is right.

don't get mad, get e*trade and start trading today. new details about the phase one trade deal with china. kayla has got more details for

us. >> the white house just wrapping up a briefing with senior administration officials and the questions largely centered on exactly how the behavior of the u.s. and china will be governed going forward under this deal. and what happens, again, to those tariffs. the senior administration official says that the dispute settlement mechanism, so how they solve any issues that arise under the deal, that that will be ready in about 90 days and that its effectiveness will be tested then. as for tariffs, this official says that china is not allowed to implement new tariffs if the u.s. decides to introduce its own as retaliation if things fall apart, but that china is allowed to quit the agreement. so certainly those are going to be interesting concepts as we learn what the relationship will look like under this new trade deal, and we're continuing to get new details from these officials as they flesh out exactly what it is that's in the deal and what's on paper, but also some of these more abstract issues that they've talked about behind the scenes, but hasn't really been outlined at of yet.

>> kayla, this is clearly knocked the market a little bit, moved us a small amount from the highs that we were at earlier. but if there aren't any further disputes, those factors shouldn't really matter. it's not like the phase one deal e evaporates unless something escalates significantly. if we continue to move towards phase two, it's very positive. >> and ambassador lighthizer said earlier today that so long as the two sides are engaging in good faith and issues arise and they're solving them through the dispute mechanism, there will be no tariffs but i think the market gets spooked that in spite of this deal there is still a possibility of tariffs, which is something that came up in this briefing and wilf, also as to the purchases that china is going to make, this official was asked whether china would be removing any of its tariffs against u.s. products that have been put into place over the last couple of years. they said that china will be doing this on an ad hoc basis to deliver on its purchase targets,

but it won't really be a specifically outlined strategy that the market can really follow, that businesses can invest on. >> kayla, thanks so much for that the interday chart for the dow, we're seeing it as we approach the close here's the "closing bell" big board. the major averages s&p has been hovering up and down dow still holding on to two-tenths of a percent of gain just below the 29,000 level. can it get back above that in the remaining 15 minutes we shall see there are so some of the main stocks in the cnn china trade index, all of which did slip ths apple high profile one, of course, slipping, best part of a percent at the moment. >> and with that much time left, paul, your last chance trade today? >> so we were talking about it earlier, but the stock of tesla has just been bananas in the

last year. i think it's tripled off its lows if an investor wanting to play that trend, you could go into lithium stocks and one of them is the mining and chemical company of khile, which is sqm they are the largest lithium producer in the world. lithium prices have been destroyed over the last year and a half they've been more than cut in half and one of the concerns has been the fact that china was going to end sub dees on electric vehicle. monday china reversed course and said that they wouldn't be cutting the subsidies this year. but we think any increase in prices of lithium will flow to the bottom line of sqm and if you look historically, there has been a relationship between the lithium stocks like sqm and the stock of tesla in the run-up and sell-off.

in those periods, tesla led the decline in sqm and lithium stocks and now tesla has sort of bottomed and if you look at the chart, it's broken a down trend that's been in place for well over a year. >> lithium in these batteries. up next we bring you uninterrupted coverage of the final minutes of the trade and as a reminder, u yocan always watch us live on the go on the cnn app "closing bell" will be right back everyone uses their phone differently.

that's why xfinity mobile lets you design your own data. you can share 1, 3, or 10 gigs of data between lines, mix in lines of unlimited, and switch it up at any time.

all with millions of secure wifi hotspots and the best lte everywhere else. it's a different kind of wireless network, designed to save you money. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. and save even more when you say "bring my own phone" into your voice remote. that's simple, easy, awesome. click, call or visit a store today. non-gmo, made with naturally sundown vitamins are all sourced colors and flavors and are gluten & dairy free. they're all clean. all the time. even if sometimes we're not.

sundown vitamins. all clean. all the time. aleit's a master stroke ofe's heartachew. and redemption. the lexus nx. modern utility for modern obstacles. lease the 2020 nx 300 for $359 a month for 36 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. make ice. making ice. but you're not mad because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad get e*trade and start trading commission free today.

we have just over ten minutes left and we're now in the "closing bell" market zone coverage of all the action going on. >> commentator mike santoli joins us to break down the crucial moments of the trading day and today we have paul hicky joining us as well let's kick things off with trade. we're seeing a late day reversal in stocks, despite president trump and china's vice premier signing the much anticipated phase one trade deal at the white house earlier today. despite the agreement, new reports say china can quit this trade deal if the united states re-imposes new tariffs trump did say the bulk of existing tariffs on china will stay in place. >> i'm leaving them on because otherwise we have no cards to negotiate with, and negotiating with leo is very tough but they will all come off as soon as we finish phase two.

>> and so there we have some of the detail that now as people are going through or the administration officials are setting the scene for us mike, how much do you think this provides just the slightest dampening effect on the optimism >> i think it's not having much new in there the market has largely moved on once we got the pullback from new tariffs, i don't think there was anything in the text of the agreement that people feel as if there were going to be unknown benefits and then either side essentially able to walk away, it's unclear that it changes much of the story. but it's a net positive by removing a potential negative. >> i think it's an extra positive as of today when the ink was put on the paper but all of the banks earnings calls that i've been listening to, very clear theme, obviously the consumer was strong and it was strong last quarter. but last quarter there was definitely a concern of corporate optimism, all of which they're saying was abated.

we don't know how much pickup it brings, but in the last three months because the stories around trade coming closer to today's signing have changed, definitely led to pickup in corporate optimism and there's room for certainly parts of the economy to show a pickup, we just don't know if it will happen necessarily. >> and i think the financials are one sector that have some upside to go we talk about valuations being stretched in the market. it's not in the financial sector that's one of the few sectors where they're not seeing very extended ratios and valuations relative to history. so i think financials are a good area here, again to the optimism they've been talking about. >> united health shares jumping after reporting earnings this morning. bertha, what are the main take-aways. >> the bottom line, 390 adjusted versus 378 if you take a look, united health is one of the biggest contributors today to the dow coming very close to its $300 high from last month

the biggest take-away, lower medical costs, and we have a pretty strong flu season but they said it's not really resulting in people being admitted to the hospital medicare growth continues to be strong a little bit of weakness on commercial they lost the parent company comcast and jpmorgan but they expect to rebuild the commercial business in the second half of the year but the good news on medical costs being contained is spreading over the rest of the managed care sector today. and you're seeing that sector in fact hitting an all-time high. back over to you. >> bertha, thank you so much for that paul, where do you stand on united and some of its rivals? >> i think the sector specifically, these results are impacting the stock today but the big driver in the next several weeks to months is obviously the election and what happens in the iowa caucuses on the 3rd. who wins on the democratic side there. if we start to see warren or sanders show some momentum, it's going to be a tough spring for

these managed care stocks. at this point trump's poll numbers have been going up so that's been able to boost the group because he's more friendly obviously than those more left candidates on the democratic side. >> we've got six minutes left in the session. goldman sachs and bank of america both reporting quarterly results this morning goldman sachs reporting revenue beat and beat on adjusted earnings the bank's profit was hit by a $1.1 billion litigation charge meantime, bank of america's stock is trading lower despite reporting a beat on the top and bottom line. they're all trading lower, which really is more because of the way the yield curve has moved this afternoon in particular it definitely added a nuance, the earnings reports, whereas yesterday there was a more broad-based positivity if you look at the week to date, the share price performance is so different depending on which name you're looking at

wells fargo is down 8% for the week, citi group is up 2%. so you've got some stock specifics at play, which i think is quite interesting as opposed to just where is the yield curve going, which is having an impact today. >> who is positioned to actually benefit from the persistence of a good domestic economy, i think that's where you're kind of shaking out on those and then also the variations in valuation among them even though the same drivers seem to be at work in all the larger names, obviously citi group is considered to be the value pick with more room to improve. >> one thing that happens when interest rates go lower is that mortgages become more attractive in fact, mortgage application volumes surged 30% last week as home buyer demand increases. let's get to diana olick for more on that. >> a lot of the surge was refinance applications fueled by the drop in mortgage rates down to 3.87% that's the lowest since last september. last year rates were 87 basis points higher.

stunning was a 16% weekly jump in mortgage applications to buy a home as we reported just after the new year, the spring buying season is starting now and that pushed stocks of the big builders higher, the i tv up to the highest in a month. tomorrow we get a read on home builder sentiment which hit a 20-year high in december we'll see if it can beat that in january. back to you guys >> and i got to see some of that in action on a trip to oklahoma where they were already in full open house season. you had said last week that is a really big departure from what's normal for realtors. >> yeah, normally january is a very slow month. it's when realtors start prepping their listings and it's really the middle of february that is the kickoff. that is not the case this year. >> diana, thanks so much paul, where do you stand on home builders >> we like the group as a whole, just by demographics and trends and where levels are versus

historically housing has been an engine for the economy here home affordability came in 14% last year, so the average monthly payment for a new home became 14% cheaper because of the decline in interest rates and home price strength. so i think housing is very strong and the data, home builder sentiment tomorrow, starts and permits and those numbers should reinforce that trend. >> and still playing into this consumer confidence, we're still seeing confidence on the part of the american consumer. >> we're back above 29,000 on the dow. mike, you've been looking at the margt internals? >> yeah, it's held up okay if you look at up versus down not really overwhelming either way. smaller stocks have done pretty well today look at the kind of nature of the small gains today, though, and in the last few days if you look at the lower

volatility stocks, this is the more defensive names, they've overtaken the faster-moving stocks in the last day or so and that's really a matter of yields coming down, helping out things like utilities as well as semiconductors having a little gut check today. and then finally the vix has been stubborn. it seems like this might be the floor at this point for this particular move in the market. it seems like still there's some hedging perhaps ahead of some of the political primaries. that's a bit of a stubborn instinct. >> two minutes left to go. let's get over to rick santelli for a check on bonds. >> bonds are starting to melt in terms of yield it's been ongoing but we're hitting important levels three-year are down two basis points, the curve at 22 basis points and if you subtract the two, it's pretty much the flattest in a little over a movement december 1st, if we close here at $178 or lower, it will be the lowest close in six weeks since

december 4th and kate rogers, it looks like we're going to close the nasdaq about where it opened, even though we were close to 9300 at one point. >> we've been dipping in and out of negative territory after hitting the record interday high today. technology names really helping to drive a lot of the games. microsoft, facebook, google and apple were having positive point impacts on the nasdaq 100, microsoft adding nearly 8 points alone. amazon, though, was a drag to the downside, kind of bucking the big trend we've seen among the neck names today and despite today's big trade news, chip stocks were moving lower. bertha, i'm going to send it over to you. >> thanks very much. we saw all-time highs today for a number of sectors, transports, industrials, a lot of them certainly drafting off of the news of the trade. but there are also moves into

defenseives. we have utilities today as an all-time high. those were among the new highs today. also retailers were among the big losers because of concern about tariffs and not to mention the target results that's the bell. 29,035, the record closing high for the dow today welcome to the "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost. >> and i'm contessa brewer, along with mike santoli, cnn senior markets commentator. >> let's check in on the close above 29,000 for the dow jones industrial average, which counts as a record all-time high as well for the s&p 500, 3289, just a record close for the s&p itself the nasdaq missing out on a

record, but in positive territory. all three of the major averages recovering there in the final 20 minutes or so to be in the green. though we were off the session highs. energy was the worst performing sector on the day. utilities led the charge highlighting that slightly defensive tilt that we did have during the session >> joining us to talk about the market day, sherry paul, ubs global wealth management, senior portfolio manager, and still joining us for the hour, paul hicky of the smoke investment group. you said today the moves in this market weren't really about trade? >> trade, obviously we had the official commemoration of the trade deal the market had already kind of put that in the books. so fresh news. but the market has held up okay. it's had this firm bid in there and i think even a couple of days ago if you said apple is going to be down 2% in two days, what is the overall market the overall market has stayed flat so there's been a rotational

move, defensive stocks holding things together as you get a rest in some of the overheated nasdaq stocks. everyone is able to look at all these readings and say the market is up 11% in three months it's strong until proven otherwise. >> phase one being signed, 29,000 are they purely symbolic things? >> i completely agree with mike that this is a symbolic gesture that puts on the table really the focus on phase two, which is where we need substantial progress in order to lift the lid on some of the sectors that are being negatively impacted through the fear of tariffs. and so moving on from that, i think it's going to be important. >> you have a $200 billion commitment from the china to buy american goods and services. about $35 billion of that goes for agriculture. when you go out and talk to the farmers you know that many of them have lost their biggest customer if they're regaining the ground and the chinese follow through, would you expect to see a lift in manufacturing, that some of

this is caterpillar and john deere would start to see sales going up >> john deere is a stock we own and i think part of this optimism of things improving, china buying more materials and also it was a very bad planting season, agricultural year last year so i think we'll see i mean, a lot of these things are a little bit hazy, these commitments. so we'll see how it goes but i think coming into i, investors are now focused on earnings and what's going forward and how the companies react. >> on the topic of earnings, they kicked off in earnest this week paul, you've been looking at the pace of analysts downward revisions and they're saying it bodes well for the performance during earnings season. >> we've seen a pickup in analyst sentiment, but we're still seeing more earnings revisions to the down than to the up side. and historically when you look at the performance of the market during earnings season, when you have the low bar and more

negative than positive revisions, the market averages about a gain of 1.8%, and positive returns 80% of the time when you have more, the market average a decline, and positive returns of less than 40% so there's a clear relationship between where the bar is set and how the market performs going yaurd. >> i thought it was interesting, you reported that more than 80% of s&p companies are operating above their 200 day moving average. how are valuations now >> well, right now the market is trading just 18, 18.5 times earnings so we're not a bubble like the way we would look back to '01 and '02 and so at bs we're looking for 5.5% earnings growth rate this year we think sector selection is going to play a big role in where investors should be placing money, and two areas

that we favor specifically are communication services for four reasons. one, 18.5 times earnings, shelter from the tariff storm, number two dividend yield of 1.3, with a terrific growth story. so that would be one of our favorite areas in addition to consumer discretionary. >> the 18.5 times earnings is kind of misleading because you've got a wide range within the sector so are you picking out the tel companies versus social media? >> we would favor those that would benefit from advertising, so the secular trend really does favor the stocks that are going to benefit from those trends, particularly as we go into the political season but consumer discretionary brings us close to home where they want to stay close to the strong consumer in the u.s. and that would be our second area. >> bank of america says that while the market will go higher in 2020, investors are far from euphoria on stocks the firm sout with a new note in

which analyst picked out their top stocks to outperform in 2020 some picks include citi, netflix, targt, united airlines, ups and mcdonald's mike, weigh in here. it's funny because target is on this 2020 list, and then we got sort of surprisingly disappointing results. >> right so that was perhaps ill-timed to throw it out there as your top pick but i think i would agree that we are not in a condition where investors are euphoric and people's expectations for the market are sky high. that being said, they are far from also people being skeptical and bearish. we're somewhere in the middle. if we're going to get to euphoria, we're on our way but not there. in terms of the picks, i actually found the picks to be -- if you think the market is going to reward the leaders in each industry, that's the list you want right there because it wasn't as if people were saying big restructuring and comeback stories, tremendous earnings leverage. it was these are the quality

names in the areas we cover because the market seems like it's on a roll. >> yield has had a big impact today. utilities outperformed, financials what drove yields low? >> i think that's a good question and i don't think there's a great answer to it there's a definite shift into in-flows into longer-term bonds. you saw it in some of the etfs so i don't know if people are rebalancing at the middle of january into this duration i mean, the rest of the world has had yields pick up but that's calmed down a little bit. i do think people are looking sideways at the bond market and saying are you telling us we have something to worry about that we haven't sorted out yet or not and i don't think there's necessarily a verdict on that. but we're making kind of new multi-week lows in yields. so pay attention there. >> so i mean, i think we have seen some weaker trend in economic data relative to expectations it wasn't been horrible. inflation data yesterday and today came in lighter and the fed has told us every time i've

been on in the last couple of months, the fed is banging it into our heads that we're not doing anything until inflation is persistent and significant. and these numbers aren't going in that direction. >> sherry, what is your take on the bond market? do you have significant expose tour bonds >> well, we're overweight on equities right now i think it's the asset class to be in when you look at earnings and dividend yield and what we expect for growth. and i think also -- with that said, i think it's important for clients to have fixed income in the portfolio, but again to be selective across the curve, across quality, and to expect lower returns within the bond market i do think it's interesting that we're seeing a dip in yields and it tells us how much the weight of phase two potentially, if we're going to speculate about that, might have in terms of the fed and some of the economic data that paul just mentioned. >> sherry, paul, thank you both very much. great to see you both. >> thanks. still to come, we'll dive

into the details of the trade deal with vice psintrede mike pence's chief of staff, marc short.

phase one of the u.s.-china trade deal officially has been signed vice president mike pence addressing the deal earlier today during the ceremony. >> we announced great progress on protecting intellectual property, on preventing technology transfer and currency

manipulation and i know it means so much to you, the greatest impact may well be on american griculture >> joining us now is vice president pence's chief of staff, marc short. great to see you today the president has said this deal is fully enforceable when it comes to the transfer of technology, can you explain how enforcement would work >> sure. the united states trade representative obviously coming out with more details on that in the next 60 days or so but there will be a dispute resolution team where we have people from both the united states trait representative and china's side that will look at individual disputes that are brought before them and inside the construct they'll assess whether or not there are violations of this deal or not but the forced transfer of technology has been a big concern from this administration from the very beginning. and it's one of the items that the president said was not just a trade imbalance, but also making sure that americans

companies don't continue to have their technology stolen and taken over by the communist party of china so being able to take initial steps is important, but there's going to be we believe as well hopefully a second phase to this that will continue to tighten those constricts so there's no the same theft of technology. >> marc, just wanted to go back a step and there's obviously future phases still to come and there's been ups and downs to reach the first phase. how significant is this particular moment in the president's first term in office, do you think >> well, wilf, i think it's an incredibly ho incredibly historic moment we've had administrations that believe when you allow china and the trade organization, there are other changes that have not come to fruition and in the meantime china has continued to cheat on trade deals so this president said the era of economic surrender is over

and he basically assessed tariffs in ways that were crippling the china economy. so they came to the table and made real concessions. we will see how this goes. it is an opportunity for both nations to find a pathway forward that is prosperous for both but as your network has covered, this is a huge day in the relationship with china, but tomorrow as well, the senate will be passing the united states-mexico-canada trade agreement. so in two days you're going to have two huge trade deals and i think this economy has benefitted from the president's tax agenda, his anti-regulatory agenda, and now i think you're going to see the fruition of the trade agenda coming to bare. >> just wanted to pick up a little bit on your boss t vice president's comments in the room there around the signing, saying that it's a new chapter for relations between the u.s. and china, which as we've discussed before, is quite a step for the vice president relative to a couple of the speeches he's made towards china, about china in

the last couple of years are china now a close ally of the united states? >> well, wilf, i think if you go back to the remarks he's made, most recently about six months ago and also at the institute a year ago, i think he's laid out some serious concerns about what our government has about abuses of human rights and other challenges we face with china. also on a national security front, they continue to be there. but what he's saying is this is an opportunity it's an opportunity to start a new chapter. we'll see where it goes from here but the escalating trade wars, i think it should be reassuring to a lot of markets and it's giving us an opportunity in which there's an incentive for both sides to make this work. i think that the president's actions have brought china to the table in a way that they're wanting to work with us moving forward. i don't think it's been the case for the last couple of decades and i think for us obviously you've talked about the $200

billion in additional exports going into china, but i think as well that's based on a 2017 baseline and they're about $30 billion below that now so it's $30 million is a tremendous boost to export markets in america, plus an additional $200 i think is significant for us to see an incentive to make this work, too. >> the administration has revoked its labeling of china as a currency manipulator has its practice changed, has its commitment changed, or is this a goodwill gesture? >> i think that their commitment has changed and that is part of this deal as well. they signalled to us a desire to not continue to manipulate the currency the way they have but contessa, that's something that i think bears watching on all sides and that's why we have a dispute resolution in place, so we can continue to check that. >> is the view on huawei still the same, though >> i don't think there's been any change in the view on huawei we're going to continue to have national security concerns about

a wholly owned company, fully owned subsidiary of the communist party and their ability to, in essence, spy on americans. so we have concerns about huawei. >> and marc, if the uk go ahead -- i know it's an important area of discussion between the u.s. and uk at the moment if the uk do go ahead and use huawei in their 5g network what would that mean a u.s.-uk trade deal is off the table? >> i wouldn't say that it's off the table, wilf. but we're anxious to have a trade deal with the uk when the vice president went to meet with boris johnson last september, we made a commitment as soon as brexit was complete we wanted to get there i think we would have a disagreement over huawei for sure but i'm not going to tell you that would be a barrier to getting a trade deal completed with them. >> marc, some of the states that were hardest hit in the trade war with china were also among those that were the president's biggest supporters can you talk a little bit about

what's in this trade deal and how it's influenced by politics and the upcoming election? >> you know, contessa, i don't know that it is influenced by politics and the upcoming election there's been a lot of commentary about whether or not china wanted to make a deal this year or wait until after the election was complete to see if they had somebody that would be more lenient toward them in negotiations but i think from in administration's perspective, these have been consistent things that donald trump said as a candidate, not just as president. these are things he wanted to see change in our trading relationship with china. and so china retaliated in ways to try to hurt american farmers, i think you've seen the american farmer stand with this president because they knew this was important for the long-term, but also because of so many other policies that we've advanced that have benefitted them. so certainly there's going to be politics at play and i'm not trying to deny that overall, but i don't think that was a factor really in driving toward those policy conclusions.

>> i just wanted to switch focus, marc, with the final question, and the president picked up on a comment from boris johnson earlier on twitter and he alluded to the potential for a fresh deal, a fresh nuclear deal with iran is that in the cards and is that the main strategy now, is to have a negotiation like you've just done with china, as opposed to escalate things >> wilf, we believe that the maximum pressure campaign that this administration applied to iran brought significant pain to their regime, and i think that they're in a position now where their gdp is crumbling by negative double digit numbers, which i think is really hard for a lot of americans to fathom how hard their economy is really struggling and i think that's one of the reasons they've retaliated in some of the ways that they have. but you've also seen over the last several weeks this president's resolve in responding to iran and so we believe that they're in a position in which they

would look to try to have a negotiation. i don't know what the next steps are there, and i don't want to try to suggest that anything is imminent but i think that the president was anxious to make sure that iran understood that they'll have no nuclear weapons and they must stop exporting terrorism across the middle east and across the globe >> marc, thanks so much for joining us >> thank you for having me. >> marc short, vice president pence's chief of staff we've got news on toyota. >> this involves toyota and a startup in the air taxi service industry toyota is the lead investor, pumping $394 million as part of the funding round into aviation out of silicon valley. the financing will come to $590 million. this is a company that has raised $720 million through all of its financing as it works on developing an electric air taxi service that it hopes to launch

by 2023, with electric aircraft carrying four passengers in city and urban environments the president and ceo of toyota says air transportation has been a long-term goal for toyota. they're putting their money where their mouth is in this case, pumping $394 million into joby aviation >> i hope part of it goes to making sure you've got well developed and well-charged batteries for an electric air vehicle. >> i would hope that the batteries are fully charged before they take off >> absolutely. phil, thank you. up next, we'll break down the charts to see why this is a have and have-not market. >> and a reminder, you can always watch us live, on the go, on the cnn app "closing bell" will be right ckba

do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging? prevagen is the number one pharmacist-recommended memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

some things are too important to do yourself. ♪ get customized security with 24/7 monitoring from xfinity home. awarded the best professionally installed system by cnet. simple. easy. awesome. call, click or visit a store today.

welcome back let's go to mike for the third installment of the dashboard. >> the market has been ruthless in separating out stocks look at this chart of the most expensive 10% of stocks in the s&p 500 and then the least expensive over time.

this goes back to the mid '80s it's from kkr. obviously you're really paying up a premium, how the line has gone up the most elite stocks, the growth leaders, the secular winners out there have been increasing their valuations as we've gone along the last several years. the cheapest 10% have stayed that cheap and have trended a little bit lower that clearly shows this sort of whittling of the market. the last time it was close to this -- actually wider than it is right now was at the market peak of 2000 when you had the bottom percent cheaper and then towering valuations elsewhere. the market is saying these stocks are disrupted or structurally challenged in some ways would it take a bear market for that kind of dynamic to kick in, or perhaps feast in the middle and say there's some lower expectation stocks that might not be so disadvantaged. that's some of the

recommendations that are coming out right now. >> the top and bottom by market cap or by -- >> no, sorry, by pe. so the most expensive 10% is close to 30 times earnings and the least expensive is now near the long-term average of ten times earnings. >> very interesting, thank you mortgage applications hitting the highest level in 11 years. up next we'll discuss the health of the financial sector and the strength of home lending when we speak to the ceo of the consumer bankers association. and spotify creates new play gssts that literally go to the do we'll have the details later on "closing bell. ♪ limu emu & doug

and now for their service to the community, we present limu emu & doug with this key to the city. [ applause ] it's an honor to tell you that liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. and now we need to get back to work. [ applause and band playing ] only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ this round's on me.eat. hey, can you spot me? come on in. find your place today, with silversneakers. included in most medicare advantage plans.

enroll today by calling the number on your screen or visit getsilversneakers.com when you look at the world, ♪ what do you see? ♪ where others see chaos, we see patterns. ♪ connections. relationships. ♪ when you use location technology, you can see where things happen, before they happen. ♪ with esri location technology, you can see what others can't.

♪ welcome back the dow closed above 29 k, s&p had a record all-time closing buy. gains for all three of the industries the dow leading the charge up a third of one percent united health, top s&p performers, cody nelson holdings. >> time now for a cnbc i couldn't say update. >> hi, everyone. officials are growing more concerned over the potential of a dam failure in northern mississippi after lake levels rose another foot overnight. engineers are using sigh fons to draw water to nearby streams forecasters are call for an additional 5 inches of rain by the weekend. three fishermen are in good

condition after being rescued from inside the hull of their cap sized crabbing boat. the vessel was flipped upside down and got stuck on a jetty in oregon and fallout over baseball's sign stealing scandal continues one day after firing manager alex cora, a key figure in major being baseball's investigation, red sox management faced the media hours ago to address the situation. >> it was a sad day because we all have such respect for alex he had admitted that what he did was wrong, but that doesn't mitigate in our opinion the extraordinary talent that he has. >> and the fallout continues that is the news update. i'll send it back downtown to you. >> thanks so much for that the financial sector trading lower today after goldman sachs and bank of america released earnings before the bell let's bring in richard hunt, the consumer bankers association

president who just rang the closing bell here today. thanks so much for joining us, richard. good to see you. >> thank you you'll notice it was an all-time closing with cba in the house. >> you know. and you got the dow up above 29,000 let's talk about banks earnings so far what are some of the key themes you've seen and are you encouraged about the state of the economy from the messaging you're hearing >> what we're seeing is a strengthening of the economy we feel confident with consumer confidence and applications. i will say in the history of banking we probably have the most pristine amount of credit i think the amount of credit pristineness has been terrific and we're confident where it will be going in 2020. >> in terms of the state of the banker sector at the moment as we look at the year ahead and the decade ahead as well do you see the biggest banks continuing to get bigger as we've seen over the last couple

of years or is that a problem or should that be welcomed? >> you saw the biggest merger, and the ceo said he had to be over $400 million to compete against the trillion nars. the fact of the matter is -- >> in assets you're talking about? >> the assets. i think there will be further consolidation in the banking industry we lost 250 banks last year, mostly community banks but we're seeing millennials go toward the bigger banks. people good do banking on their iphone >> so to your point, the smaller banks, 250 of them but there's still 5,000 or so banks in the u.s., is it therefore fair to expect that we will see many hundreds more of the smaller banks disappear in the years ahead? >> there is a great role for small community banks to play, especially in rural communities and as we're consolidating we'll see another 250 probably

consolidate. if you're a community bank and you've got your niche expertise, you're going to do quite well in this market. >> we've got news today that visa is buying for $5.3 billion. this makes it possible for consumers to bypass mastercard and visa and american express and deal directly with their banks. does that give banks a boost >> sure, it does you're still going to have the bank involved throughout the entire process this is just another evolution of what the consumer wants and demands. they want to be able to bank 24/7, when they want to, where they want to it's a very positive sign, visa and plaid. >> richard, thanks so much for joining us congrats on ringing the bell >> thank you very much appreciate it. go tigers. still ahead, tik tok topping facebook to become the world's second most downloaded app find out what it means for social media stocks straight ahead. and later former universal

and co-chairman bill silverman tells us where the creative community could get skbeget squd >> announcer: cnbc news update is sponsored by comcast business take your business beyond. you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. make ice. making ice. but you're not mad because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad get e*trade and start trading commission free today. don'- when i see obstacles, i create opportunities. (soft music) - when i see adversity, i find a way. - when i hear never, i say now. - [announcer] southern new hampshire university is education made to fit your goals with over 200 degree programs,

flexible class schedules, and some of the lowest online tuition rates in the nation. (cheering) - so when i face barriers, i can break through. - [announcer] breakthrough at snhu.edu.

♪ ♪ social stocks moving higher today but a private social platform tik tok is making major gains. julia boresen is in los angeles with the latest for us. >> tik tok is surpassing facebook as the second most downloaded app worldwide last year behind only what's app. that's according to sen tr tower that tracks the downloads. they reached an all-time high with yearly 220 million installs in the fourth quarter. that's a 24% increase over the third quarter. and the financial times reports tik tok is working on a feed with policy content, similar to snap's discover session. tik tok would not comment on that report, but they did tell me that they are working with

publishers and content creators to help them generate revenue on the platform guys, back over to you. >> are they highly copyable, though tik tok, is this something that you can see facebook trying to give them a run for the money? >> facebook has tried to copy some of their features with a lip sync battle challenge, because a lot of what is on tik tok is people lip syncing to songs. you have to look at their size and their scale, contessa. the fact that some people have download thd app and are already using it once people get locked in, it is a little bit harder to push them away, but it will be interesting to see what facebook, instagram, snap continue to do in this arena. but it's worth noting that none of their efforts have really seemed to impact tik tok's growth at all. >> but julia, a download i guess isn't necessarily a new user, because if it is, then the

statistics there for facebook, instagram and what's app are more impressive if they're squeezing out a couple hundred million more users at this stage of their existence. >> you're absolutely right tik tok is growing from a smaller point. but if you look at the engagement the stats are amazing. i just got some data from a firm that does mobile intelligence analytics. what they told me is that people watch more video on their mobile devices on tik tok last year in the u.s. than they did of amazon prime videos so basically saying tik tok has greater engagement in mobile devices than amazon prime video. that was very surprising to me i actually had to check the numbers multiple times because i didn't quite believe it. so i think yes, you're right, wilf, that it's amazing that instagram and facebook continue to grow even off such a big base, but people are really engaged in the platform and it's still very much early days in terms of monetizing that i think we will see a lot of movement there in the next year. >> julia, thank you.

we've got xpo logistics. >> shares trading 14% higher after the company announced it is ex sflorg the sale or spinoff of one or more of its business units. the company has retained goldman sachs and jpmorgan to explore the possibilities. they've said in part the best way to continue to maximize our value is explore our options xpo adding there is no guarantee that tlel sell or spin off a business unit. they did role out of the sale of the northwest truckload unit, the delivery of appliances and other large items. coming up, ceo brad jacobs will talk to jim cramer where they can talk about him shares 14% higher now. back over to you. >> up next, forget peak tv are we approaching peak content.

a slew of creators signing hefty deals with top streaming companies. how long before they start getting squeezed we'll break it down with universal entertainment co-chairman ben silverman. all day long. i wake up every morning to see how much weight i've lost and how much better i look. myww join for free and get two months free!

moffit raising its price target on disney to $165 siting the company's successful rollout of disney plus as one of the reasons for the increase. >> this comes on the heels of a

study yesterday saying disney plus mobile app downloads have hit nearly $41 million since its release, with more big names expected to end the crowded streaming field, will disney be able to sustain the momentum let's bring in ben silverman ben, good to see you thanks so much for joining us. what is your take on this initial success of the disney plus launch and how sustainable it is? >> i think everyone in hollywood expected disney to succeed and it's hard to bet against bob iger, who has been one of the great leaders in all of media and the stock market in general in companies all over the world, and the disney brand is undeniable and then with the acquisition of fox entertainment and those assets, they have so much library content and the ability to draw on the ip to do new shows, and i think their interface is great and you feel safe as a parent because you trust the disney brand.

>> given that and the library, are you expecting similarly big things for nbc's peacock streaming service? >> well, we'll see how they roll it out and how many originals they have to go along with their other content. they have dreamworks and other libraries like illumination, but not the same scale that disney has or brand recognition as the producer of the office, i need and want peacock to be super vibrant and successful and i think it will be interesting to watch as they roll out and what their model will end up being, or if the model is a model that the consumer really wants, too. >> ben, we've had a lot of focus on award season and we were discussing last week how all of the awards may benefit a movie like 1917, which otherwise hadn't had great recognition and is still available to go and see, or just available to go and see in movie theatres. for all the hype about netflix and the streaming services

getting a lot of nominations in recent years, do they miss out on that added boost of extra revenue that award seasons could bring? >> well, i think there's a reason they're investing so heavily, and scott stuber, who they brought in to run the movie division, has finally had a full year under his belt, and look what they've delivered they've delivered two movies that are going to be nominated for best picture, and i think a lot of people are going to be compelled to continue subscribing or to subscribe because they want to see the irishmen, and i think the level of quality and to the peak viewing and peak content, a lot of the series require real commitments and you feel a little guilty if you don't complete a series like an unfinished book. and so the movies are a little more satisfying. >> that's also why we see

netflix investing so heavily in marketing the shows that it has, like "the irishman". they're also spending on the content creation and hbo and disney plus and apple are all doubling down as well. we have some of these huge, half billion dollar deals for these content creators, but have we hit the peak on what this is worth? >> you know, i think that those deals feel rich to me, but obviously it's much easier to bet backwards on people's previous track records and that's benefitted my career as well, having early success, led to more success. but it's hard to really come to terms with the value of these deals, other than, as you pointed out, we're heading into an arms race and the talent is the key driver of whether this content is good. and they need to invest in that talent but what i worry about is the discovery of new talent, which

has always been the hallmark of media in your living room, where you discover the stars and talent is going away and that disappear points me. because i believe it's a star making a medium, not just a star equity entering the medium. >> so ben, we touched on awards season, which of course looks backwards. what about the year ahead? what are some of the big shows or names, talent to watch out for? >> i'm excited about my documentary with our company that will be at sun dance in ten days, which still has relevance for everyone, which is going to be on hulu and it's the documentary about hillary clinton and we're really looking forward to that. but in general i think it was really interesting to see how just two weeks ago at the golden globes, everyone thought netflix was down on its luck and sad and that it was hurt by the award season, and then three weeks later in the oscars they get multiple nominations they may not take home the

trophy with the new momentum for "1917" and obviously tarantino's office, but for the year ahead i hope we're surprised the way we were in the year past. i think a movie like "1917" just shows the power of culture creation can still happen where genius meets accessibility and that film did somethingwe hadn't seen done before with the way it was shot. >> ben silverman, thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you. up next, a key domestic economic indicator michael will talk about pickup trucks. >> and spotify is now creating music for your fur-st born child. we'll discuss when "closing bell" comes back see best-in-class platforms and education. i see award-winning service, and a trade desk full of experts, available to answer your toughest questions.

and i see it with zero commissions on online trades. i like what you're seeing. it's beautiful, isn't it? yeah. td ameritrade now offers zero commissions on online trades. ♪ car vending machines and buying a car 100% online.vented now we've created a brand new way for you to sell your car. whether it's a year old or a few years old, we want to buy your car. so go to carvana and enter your license plate, answer a few questions, and our techno-wizardry calculates your car's value and gives you a real offer in seconds. when you're ready, we'll come to you, pay you on the spot, and pick up your car. that's it. so ditch the old way of selling your car, and say hello to the new way-- at carvana.

looking to get your business off to a fast start in the new year? it's go time! switch to comcast business and get fast internet on the nation's largest gig-speed network. plus, complete reliability with 4g lte backup. and, cloud-based security to help protect the devices on your network. greenlight your business in 2020 with fast internet and voice for $64.90 per month. switch now and get a $100 prepaid card when you add comcast business securityedge. call today. comcast business. beyond fast.

welcome back lets get to mike for the final dash board of the day. >> wilf lets see if we can find evidence of good work habits at play in the u.s. economy data trend research tracking large pickup truck sales this is the year over year as indicator of small business confidence and business activity it's pulled back a bit in

december that's not necessarily the most encouraging although it was related to model turnovers and concentrated in gms. but i think the big lesson is the steadiness in the low single digits over the last few years obviously a huge crash and a pent up bid of demand. but keeping above the flat loan on a seasonal basis in the numbers. but it's too early to say that confidence or willingness to invest in something like a large pickup which usually you do because business is getting better is waning a lot of macroindicators we want to see firm up into the first quarter to get away from the notion that we're still in slowdown mode. >> we'll look to see what happens when the tesla hits the market as well. >> that could be the one but that looks like a real work truck. >> mike, thanks. >> up next, the buzz on wall street, the big stories investors are talking about today. si bl"ilbeig rht back

our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence. so we can spend a bit today, knowing we're prepared for tomorrow. wow, do you think you overdid it maybe? overdid what? well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement. i can. the two words whispered at the start of every race. every new job. and attempt to parallel park. (electrical current buzzing) each new draft of every novel.

(typing clicks) the finishing touch on every masterpiece. (newborn cries) it is humanity's official two-word war cry. words that move us all forward. the same two words that capital group believes have the power to improve lives. and that, for over 85 years, have inspired us to help people achieve their financial goals. talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. talk to your advisor or consultant ...take the personal assessment i love the new myww program, because it's tailored to you! and get matched with a proven weight loss plan. find out which customized plan can make losing weight easier for you! myww join for free and get two months free! and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk while our competition continues to talk. that's what happens in golf nothiand in life.ily.

i'm very fortunate i can lean on people, and that for me is what teamwork is all about. you can't do everything yourself. you need someone to guide you and help you make those tough decisions, that's morgan stanley. they're industry leaders, but the most important thing is they want to do it the right way. i'm really excited to be part of the morgan stanley team. i'm justin rose. we are morgan stanley. >> announcer: record market highs. tech on a tare and the trade deal impact. can the rally continue squawk on the street 9:00 a.m. eastern on cnbc. it's time for the buzz on wall street. olympic gold medal skier sharing investment strategy with cnbc yesterday. >> save it and find good people

around you that are going to make good investments in the way that you want to make them, you know, whether -- whether that's conservative or aggressive. >> this after seattle seahawks runningbacks advised young players earlier to take care -- i can't believe you are giving me this read take care of your bodies, take care of your money and take care of your chicken. >> that's how he said it. >> you guys knew it was coming what ha stitch up. >> i think that's important advice for anybody who is young and ends up doing really well at a young age, to have a reminder that this is not going to last forever. >> more so if you are an nfl runningback or downhill racers where the careers are not long you better be careful. >> true. same could be true for one behind wonders speaking of which 70% of pet owners play music for pets and the company spotify has the

perfect solution launching customizable play lists for pets including hamsteres and iguanas and depends on how energetic or friendly or curious your pet is. it introduces a podcast that copies your doing company while they listen. >> you stay be good because you're such a good dog that's why everyone loves you. >> no, she would not like that that sounds menacing and sinister. >> imagine if that played when your kids are at home. they'd be what is going on. >> they've never within called good dogs before. >> it should be in the higher frequency that people can't hear. >> such a good point you should invent the podcast. >> the ticker symbol for spotify is after a spot.

>> spot. >> spoiler alert who is the greatest jeopardiyist of all time. >> ken jennings. >> greatest of all time. congratulations. >> jennings was crowned champion in the greatest of all-time tournament in a question about shakespeare clinching of final of three matches and a million dollars. congrats. >> somewhere someone had a book on this where you could bet on it it would have been an easy bet. there is one champion who is nameworthy. >> exactly. >> everybody can name ken jennings you know he is coming out on top. >> i have to admit i don't understand the way the questions work which in comes up many times you tried to explain it to me because i never watched the show i never get it. >> the way it started with mev griffin apparently and his wife if you said $5280 that's the answer give me the question. >> how many feet in a mile sos that's how the original game started. and they created this game show.

>> a good stask. mike is always full of good stasks. >> i like it. >> i didn't think that was a stumper. >> didn't have a clue with that one. i just think in miles. why do you need to know anything else. >> you don't think in kilometers. >> see everyone gets that wrong that's continental europe. we have miles. we do have other issues with some of the metric systems but we don't want to get into that lets pivot back to the markets mike, record crosses but a volatile session and kind of defensive tone to the -- >> it was. i think you could be generous and say the market is cooling a bit, taking a rest and some stuff hasn't worked well is come to the foreand supporting indexes. but nothing -- we're up close to 2% year to date, the year has been ten trading sessions. hard to kplap. i would watch the leading nasdaq stocks like apple down 2% in a couple days. >> and looking ahead to morgan stanley tomorrow if you look at big themes

helping the banks they're not as exposed because they are tilted to equity trading than fixed income trading we'll see how they perform tomorrow, the last of the big banks. >> the comeback in markets marks up the welt management funds and see how it plays >> we're out of time that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. yes it does thank you very much and live at the nasdaq market site, this is "fast money. i am brian sullivan in for melissa lee. traders on the desk are steve grasso karen finerman and guy adami and joined by dan suzuki deputy chief investment officer at richard bern ernest advisers well back dan. it's official, phase one of the trade deal with china signed the dow and s&p 500 hitting record highs we break down where he go from here a fight between meat and fake meat there is a beyond meat and shake shack moving vastpy different directions today what stock could come ou