good morning it's 5:00 p.m. at the world economic forum in switzerland. it's 11:00 a.m. in the east and "squawk alley" is live ♪ ♪

good tuesday morning jon fortt is off today you have a week of shortened trade and tech on the floor at the close friday good morning, bob. >> good morning, carl. stocks are at new highs. and with this coronavirus you see china metals and a couple of downgrades today, keep an eye on that good signs semiconductors holding up very well and including lvmh, luxury names carrying in europe, airlines like air china, japan airlines also modest, on the weak side.

we have seen u.s. airlines like delta moving to the down side. it may be haircut. stocks are really pricey now this coronavirus is an unknown unknown. who knew this was coming we couldn't model this it came out of nowhere essentially. i would be keeping an eye on downgrades prices are really pricey what does that mean? morgan stanley downgraded by citigroup. nothing wrong but just pricey. piper downgraded them last week to neutral not a lot of problems with the earnings report, really pricey bank of america got a downgrade from atlantic. you want to keep an eye on these things nothing wrong with the fundamentals that gets to be a problem and people start noticing and cutting ratings on

the stocks the good news is the trade wars may be receding a little bit we watched this bank of america global fund-raising. look what's number one now this is a surprise the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections, that was never on this list before. a trade war has been number one going back to may of 2019. all of a sudden the trade war is number two that's an important change of mind and less concerns about the trade war. the bond bulb popping has been on and off over the last year or so a very good sign, trade war receding a little bit for global fund investors back to you. >> thank you all of this against the backdrop of the economic forum in davos where the president touted the economy today >> years of economic stagnation

has given rise to a roaring geyser of opportunity. u.s. stock markets soared more than 50% since my election, adding $19 trillion to househol wealth and boosting 401(k)s, pensions and savings accounts for millions of hard working families. >> also talked about a blue collar boom. joining us now, michael and john good morning to you both michael i'll start with you. talking about prices being pricey and the records, where do you still find value >> we upgraded google on january 6th. we don't find the stock particularly demanding from a valuation perspective. we based target on 12 times ebitda, pretty impressive given what they're putting up and multiple ways you can win with

the stock and calling out the regime shift under sundar, we think there is a big opportunity for him to change his relationship with the street >> you're really bullish on google as well is this the year google become as much more meaningful significant player in cloud and starts getting lumped in with aws and microsoft? >> i really think so they scored a nice win i see them popping up, scoring more wins with fortune 500 companies, not just for test and development, more mission critical applications, which really puts them on the footing with the competitors, amazon and aws and microsoft, azure one they're starting to differentiate on is the flow development community, always a

good indicator, starting to take off and that would be good if they establish that as a platform and ecosystem for ai and cognitive computer applications >> john, interesting to hear you talking about ai where google and alphabet is concerned. basically calling for more regulations among things like facial recognition what could that do to that company and could that be something long term is positive if there's more rules of the road >> i've always thought with data privacy specifically, i think if the industry could come up with some things they could agree on and sort of rules to play by, i think they can make consumers more comfortable and businesses more comfortable with it and everybody is all transparent and everybody knows if they do this, they're giving up this data and get resold, make the choice to not do so, i think that catlizes

the market and people want to know what their data is used for and legitimately so. you make that clear and opportunity gets created >> you are normally candid when things get too expensive is there a name in your universe you like the prospects but the multiple is no more, no mass >> we haven't rolled targets yet but will do so later this week one thing i think people are looking at it the wrong way is snap, on a dcf basis and saying it's hard to make it work above 2021 the thing with us we spent time talking to the management team and talking about a dau basis, if i rolled forward that parry to comment i could see 73 and ebitda $2.9 million.

i look at it from that context, this isn't that expensive of a stock, could be 29, 30 bucks >> the technicians look at it as a brought -- a breakout. is it a share story? >> i think it's 180 degree term in terms of managementteam in terms of having jeremy gorman as business officer is incredibly impressive a cfo in from amazon one of the things they shared with me at a meeting and said we understand what great looks like this is a very different tenor than talking to this company 18 months ago i think they have remarkable momentum at their back >> john, i want to talk to you because you have a sell here you don't agree? >> i see signs to be more optimistic the problem is with the management turnover they had and a couple non-profit bad

execution quarters, right, but you have to put that in historical context, there have not been so great execution orders i would like to see this new management team, largely new, get a little more consistent, focused on profitability they need to show there is more operating leverage in this business they have been able to demonstrate. those things make me less fearful of the catastrophic possibilities. there is a lot of downside risk very plausible you average all that out, i'm still on the sell, but definitely one to keep an eye on >> all right, gentleman, thanks for joining us, as earnings

season gets under way, michael and john whose side is bill barr really on, kara swisher. and rrcaie lam, chief executive from davos, some just hitting the wires. or more on car insurance." i think we're gonna swap over to "over seventy-five years of savings and service." what, we're just gonna swap over? yep. pump the breaks on this, swap it over to that. pump the breaks, and, uh, swap over? that's right. instead of all this that i've already-? yeah. what are we gonna do with these? keep it at your desk, and save it for next time. geico. over 75 years of savings and service. that's what happens in golf nothiand in life.ily. i'm very fortunate i can lean on people, and that for me is what teamwork is all about. you can't do everything yourself.

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that grainy conference call with reed hastings, investors looking to see how the streamer fared amid new competition with hbo and others stock up 33% in the last month alone. where we might hear and international and domestic stocks >> i think it's the impact of disney and other players in this area disney entered it and apple has gotten more aggressive interesting, i'm thinking of my habits i watched the morning show and then the netflix show and disney plus i can afford to have all of them and want them for work to see how they work. there's definitely good competition now and they never had it before. i think people are concerned about that, where their growth comes from >> i wonder how much stock is put in this quarter. the streaming competition landscape, two phases, the phase from the last quarter and you had disney coming on and then in

the spring, other services >> peacock from nbc. there's a lot coming on. for apple plus i pay nothing because i got a new iphone and then it was 499 after a year i'm not thinking of getting netflix but they have to keep putting the proposition you want to keep subscribing. i would imagine price cuts are inevitable. >> from netflix? >> after a while the content and costs associated because they borrow high to do that, the spending and the spending is way above everybody else's >> we talked to analysts who think they need to introduce a lower priced support and maybe peacock provides a runway for them to do that. >> perhaps they have been innovative and running routes on everybody for years. i've been using all the services they're quite good

disney plus is particularly good and apple tv is great. >> today, disney announces march 24th launch in western europe. >> they're spending money and willing to do price competition. i don't think anybody is making money on this but it's great for you and me and how it impacts netflix going forward and their strategy they still have great shows and lots of them. >> how much do you think the academy awards makes a difference for netflix, the fact they're nominated and holds viewers to the platform. >> the award shows are so silly yet important. i was in los angeles and did interviews around oscars j.lo was robbed but let's not get into that right now. i think it's important to be showing up at those awards and winning those awards as they're a player because hollywood does respond to that. it's critically important to be part of that scene even if you think award shows are silly.

>> uber is another story they're featuring letting some drivers in california set their own fares. >> we talked about this. >> you gave up your own car a few months ago any regrets? >> no. i love it. i walked around los angeles as the only person doing. i do take cars but don't own a car. they're trying to get around ab any way i can. i don't understand the prices. they were giving you ranges when i was there. it's confusing and makes it so drivers are more independent and can refuse fares they don't want to take less than economic it's from california because of this law this is coming down the pike with uber and they have to contend what an employee is and they can't avoid ab 5 and pretend it doesn't exist >> i think they're doing this to

give their drivers more autonomy as they challenge that at the same time, lyft doesn't appear to be implementing something similar. is the risk great you start to see more people use lyft instead? >> they have to. everyone needs to respond to these laws these drivers need to be paid a living wage and get benefits it's not good. building these companies on the back of employees that they just, i don't say use and abuse, i don't think that's the case, they have to think about where employment is going and a lot of people are thinking about that this law pushes that further and some people think it's too much and that's where it's going. prices will go up i talked about over and over. >> the market, stocks up 30% >> it is they're cutting out of areas they haven't done well with. under previous administrations, we can go everywhere and do everything i think they're looking at where

they don't do well and what businesses they should be in and interesting stuff with the drone thing kind of keeps them as innovative i'm trying to get the drone for code, people drone you and i can ride around. >> so jealous. >> finally, your latest column tackles doj privacy risk wondering where barr's loyalties lie. is there an answer >> what i was talking about was how ridiculous his statements were what apple was doing. i had a big debate with scott galloway on pivot and privacy and government overreach he has a different opinion than i do there was a statement from reuters, apple did stop developing some encryption on stuff going up to icloud because the government objected. even defenders are defenseless and have to cooperate with the government apple is also cooperating with government the question is, how much will

this impact millions of people if we pull privacy protections away such as encryption. i get the argument on the other side, make sure terrorists can't use these things but they just move to other apps barr is saying apple didn't cooperate and it absolutely is cooperating and, two, if they get in this iphone they can solve everything they're not addressing this saudi cadet before, didn't do enough vetting before and didn't watch his public feed. lots of ways to do things and he was super disingenuous >> this isn't the first administration that stepped in and slammed apple. you had the san bernardino shooting and that was the obama administration >> they wanted a back door, they were very clear. even though they shouldn't have asked for that, why wouldn't they ask for that. in this case they weren't saying what they wanted apple to do and

then lied about what apple had done it was slightly different. at least james comey would agree what they wanted, a new back door and an one apple called government os. we should have a conversation about this but definitely shouldn't have it this way >> i wonder if this will be picked up in congress and make it through the legal system. >> the fbi has tried to pass this legislation i think it will never pass, this idea, because everyone is very aware how vulnerable these phones are and the question is, how do we do it properly these terrorists have lots of means of going dark and encrypted apps and opens up a pandora's box of problems if we make them more vulnerable. >> we talked about madelo's move last week to go carbon negative.

>> i think it's a seminal moment you have billgates investing in this and elon musk in davos they need to at least give lip service to this >> pepsi, starbucks today. >> they have to. kevin johnson, i saw him recently and talked about straws, going on about straws. i agree with him you have to think about your business much more what are ways of doing business that have more min mam impact on the planet this is a crisis and we're pretending it's not. >> remarkable to hear chief executives >> i think about 2020 and beyond >> good to see you talk to you soon

>> chief executive, carrie lam, from davos hey, saved you a seat.

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our own jeff is sitting down with hong kong leader chief executive carrie lam and join us with highlights. >> reporter: hi. in the last 24 hours we have seen a credit rating downfall in hong kong. we have the biggest delegation from the chinese territory we have seen in the last 20 years from hong kong, primarily with a message to talk about the resilience of the tariff trade and we have seen fresh protests over the recent weekend. when i sat down with carrie lam, the chief executive of hong kong, my question, how do you change the seven month-long

series of protests we've seen. 10,000 rounds of tear gas, more than 7,000 people arrested it needs maybe a biggest secure from the chief executive let's listen to a clip >> i have a duty to ensure hong kong will move forward the last thing hong kong people would like to see is hong kong being stagnant, because there are so many issues we'd like to tackle taking responsibility would take the form of continuing to try to arrest the decision and have hong kongers move on, whereas walking away does not solve the problem. in my position, walking away could cause more uncertainty and confusion in a continual governance of hong kong. >> reporter: it's been a brutal few months and you personally must have suffered i might message. no hong kong citizen wants to

see this happen in the next several months did you offer your resignation to beijing and told to stay in place and finish the job >> i have said in public i have not tenderedmy resignation because the call of responsibility requires me to stay on and deal with this situation. since you mentioned the frustrations or difficulties over the last seven months, i want to say the most difficult part is to see the city that i love and where i was born and grown up has suddenly changed to a place people have lesser respect for the rule of law and society is so divided and so polarized. i really hope that as we move on that we will overcome some of these challenges >> so carrie lam clearly has no intention of resigning

on the government's own figures, they expect the hong kong academy to contract about 1.3% in 2019 as a result of the hit from tourism and the impact they've seen on businesses in hong kong due to the protests. one other issue carrie lam thinks is not going to help the hong kong economy going forward, and that is the u.s. passing of the hong kong democracy act, which requires congress to look annually at the state of affairs in hong kong and make sure that the so-called one country two systems is working for hong kong people let's have a listen to how carrie lam responded to my question about the effectiveness of this u.s. legislation >> the u.s. human rights and democracy act is totally unnecessary and unwarranted. but whether it will affect confidence is hong kong depends how the secretary of state is

going to fulfill that certificati certification requirement we feel there is nothing wrong in hong kong's certification that will warrant that given to us by an external party, something provided for in a basic law hong kong operates under one country, two systems and have our own electoral and bi-electoral elections and distinct advantages under one country, two systems. but you mention about our economy taking a hit that's true. we are expecting going into active growth in 2019 and maybe even 2020. if you look at another sector, the financial services, they are as robust as ever. >> absolutely. >> we have a very good year 2019

and probably 2020. hong kong should probably continue to see those strengths and grow the economy >> carrie lam clearly doesn't like the u.s. legislation on hong kong. something else she will not like is the hong kong economy affected is this respiratory disease in china and while officials are getting a grip to that it is raising the aspect of sars and what it brought on the chinese economy and it wasn't good at the moment, it seems the hong kong government cannot get a break at this stage. i will wrap it up at that and send it back to you, carla morgan >> jeff, thank you those concerns of that deadly virus impacting markets around the world today. european markets set to close today. seema mody with the al qaeda

>> stocks on track for their worst day in three weeks with the corneronavirus in china. and the virus has spread ahead of the busy lunar travel season. lunar travel and airline operators in the travel space over pressure of the concerns the outbreak will impact tourism. europe last year was the second top world region for chinese tourists accounting for about 10% of outbound trips. luxury retailers have been expanding in china the past year and you can see they're down 1-2%, despite the broader slowdown in china's economy, they made up about 35% of luxury demand the market is taking a bit of profit today in absence of clarity what is to come. ubs shares falling following the

swiss bank's down beat guidance as low rates continue to hurt its profitability picture. >> thanks. a news update and then back. >> here's what's happening at this hour, at the economic forum in davos, switzerland, climate activist, greta, urging them to listen to people >> the climate and environment is a hot topic right now, a lot thanks to young people pushing but if you see it in another perspective close to nothing has been done since the emissions of co2 has not been reduced >> hillary clinton criticizing bernie sanders at a documentary set to air on hulu in march. nobody likes him and nobody

wants to work with him because he got nothing done. he's just a career politician. putin submitted to parliament a package of petitions in monday that would essentially keep him in power to 2024 >> back to you >> after the break, we look at netflix and what to expect from the bell when eyth face earnings and the dow low down 32. h the ak having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks.com makes it fast & easy to get to your golf destination. down in 42 with just a few clicks or a phone call, we'll pick up and deliver your clubs on-time, guaranteed, for as low as $39.99. shipsticks.com saves you time and money.

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welcome back to "squawk alley," the big earnings show, netflix. in los angeles with more on what we can expect later this afternoon. julia. >> netflix fourth quarter earnings is whether we start to see an impact from disney plus and apple tv plus. netflix subscriber growth fell short of estimates this is the first quarter to see impact on new rivals netflix forecast 7.6 million new

subscribers with 600,000 in the u.s. the first quarter guidance, netflix looking to have 8.5 million new users in the first quarter. we will see about the impact investment of originals including "the irishman" and how much to spend to compete with disney plus and apple and nbc's new peacock service. this is the first time netflix breaks down subscribers around the world. this aims to highlight growth in regions such as the asia-pacific area where netflix has been offering a lower price mobile only service and downgrade the u.s. and they're expected revenue 30% to $5.4 billion and earnings per

share. david einhorn announced their short position in the u.s. and notes what is far less valuable to the company >> thank you looking at markets real quick, dow s&p in the red, nasdaq getting positive with the high a few minutes ago. let's bring in lee and tim both are here with us at post nine welcome. i will start with you, lee, and both seem to be in a wait and see mode in terms of the stock what are the key metrics you're watching for after the bell? >> subscriber quarters 8.5 million number would be the third largest on record and given slowing growth in the u.s.

and some international market, that's one that concerns us and commentary next year what free cash flow burn will look like given rising competition >> einhorn saying international is not as valuable as domestic ones and how critical is it? >> the output is lower, of course and an interesting thing to watch netflix, it's obvious we have competition from disney and this is the first quarter we might see impact what matters most? u.s. subscribers for international? i think the next couple of years, you can argue either way. the numbers here are still important and international far larger than the u.s. if they hit their guidance versus 7 million internationally. that's a much bigger growth story overtime >> certainly, they would prefer we pay more attention to the

international. they made it pretty clear that's the metric they want us to watch. i wonder if you think their aspirations in film are a distraction, creating more of a flywheel how important is it to the core business >> we think it's important to build it people in the past come for new shows and stay for film content. expanding that film content is important to keeping subscribers on the platform, however, not something netflix has done all that well to say serialized content. >> do we know "irishman" versus house of cards"? do we know at this point >> "irish man" drives more than house of cards." it does not have a shelf life of a tv series, obviously

they're certainly wrapping up their production of films and if they can get big names like scorcese i think if they can drive them to the end of the quarters, it could be very helpful over time. >> lee, would you expect netflix to have to eventually cut its prices with all the competitors on the markets in the u.s. >> i don't think cutting prices but not raising prices aggressively considering time they have spent seeing the show, competitors have come in lower because their content isn't good it has to be comparable, price to content offer. >> what do you think winners and losers will be not necessarily zero sum >> netflix will continue to be a winner and disney already is a winner and will continue they have the ability to go direct to their consumer and more so than their traditional

peers. i think peacock from comcast will be very interesting to watch given they have a different business model, advertising supported. in a sense, they're not competing for your dollars as much as your eyeball given the ability to target consumers with better advertising and technology, if they can have fewer ad loads and less advertising, we will see. >> yes as well. given the fact it is so easy for consumers to move back and forth between different services, does that change or potentially change >> we think that does change but having more options certainly will lead to higher churn. netflix almost created a monster how easy it is for subscribers to go on and off the service and

expect it to continue. >> what will it take to get you off the neutrals >> to me, it will take a quicker take showing me they can leverage the content investment. >> same for you? >> i agree one thing i like about netflix is quality of revenue and earnings is improving. if i can get a sense of confidence investors are more interested in the international growth story and we're still in the early earnings of that expansion, i think that could drive the netflix story. >> thanks for joining us another report after the bell. a reminder, i know you can't get enough "squawk alley," watch it any time, download and watch it rick, what are you watching? >> i'm watching rates continue to act awfully spongy around the globe at a time all the private jets are in davos discussing 2020

what's ahead as stocks continue to rise. we'll talk about that after the break. hey, saved you a seat. this round's on me. hey, can you spot me? come on in. find your place today, with silversneakers. included in most medicare advantage plans. enroll today by calling the number on your screen or visit getsilversneakers.com

i'm scott with a look at what's coming up the top of the hour today, following a slew of developing stories, david saying the company is short and what investors need to see, is this 1999 all over again?

tell you exactly what was said discuss that and morningstar, an ultimate stock picker just sold a third of his apple position. you don't want to miss it. carl, we're about 15 away. see you then >> interesting move by bill. >> good to see rick in the santelli exchange. good morning. >> good morning. >> davos is an interesting place and maybe this year it couldn't be any more surreal. after three years it takes the elected officials to pull off a brexit, as they get nearer and nearer governments don't necessarily deliver on what those who elect them into power desire at davos, all these dynamics, the president getting impeached, senate trial beginning today at a time the u.s. economy pretty much without question, is leading the charge for a more positive outlook for 2020.

paul tudor jones maybe said it best, is this 1999 many of us were there where the nasdaq doubled in the 5 1/2 month leading up to the tech wreck. we have to be careful. this move in stocks might not be underpinning the type of state department it represents as it moves from record to record. the end of the day, if you pull out your money like in 1999, you could leave a lot on the table seems everyone knows an epilogue isn't pretty but no one wants to jump off the parade route early. we look at some charts, a tenure, today, down a handful of basis points sars is an issue very hard for investors to wrap their arms around we know that issue alone could bring boat loads of uncertainty down the road, especially after phase one was signed

rates are down at the lowest levels since december 4th. and look at bund, close to zero, make meg nervous and now they're moving back closer and closer to the minus 20s. we had a zoo-out today, business confidence, 27 and change, the best levels since the summer of 2015 imf put out papers, like they normally do, as everybody gathered for the party at davos saying they think growth will be better in 2020 hard to believe it's not going to be better but the significant issue remains central banks of the world and keeping the punch bowl cemented right in the middle of the room any shift in that, interest rates allowing stock valuations, anything on that side of the equation will send major ripples throughout the economy we are looking at central

bankers pretty much locked and loaded, to stay as easy as possible calling qe not qe just to keep the markets bubbling for investor confidence. morgan, back to on your hand. i hope it feels better and doesn't get in the way of all your amazing handwritten charts. >> i hope not either we can still do charts one armed. >> all right sounds good. rick santelli. still to come, forget paying with your wallet, your phone or even your face, amazon wants you to be able to buy things with just a wave of your hand but first take a look at these shares up more than 13% today. "squawk on the street" returns in two but we're also a company that controls hiv, fights cancer, repairs shattered bones, relieves depression, restores heart rhythms, helps you back from strokes, and keeps you healthy your whole life.

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get customized security with 24/7 monitoring from xfinity home. awarded the best professionally installed system by cnet. simple. easy. awesome. call, click or visit a store today. call it the next wave of path technology. amazon working on a system that would allow users to pay using only their hand. kate explains back at one market kate. >> hey, morgan forget credit cards and mobile phones according to the wall street journal amazon is working on new path terminals that let merchants check out by the palm of their hand. that will reportedly linked to users credit cards they say amazon is working with visa both companies declined to comment. they say this is yet another example of tech giants that could put banks on edge.

amazon has multiple credit card options already. we had google with checking accounts they say this could be particularly threaten to go app apple though trust will be key here this adds to amazon already already extensive access to data they are wary of trusting amazon and fear competition from the tech giant amazon needs to show fits a win for merchants as well. seen as a way to better authenticate credit card it's not all of these work out though more than a decade ago, silicon valley pay by touch tried to let people pay with their fingerprint. raised more than $200 million. and that company filed for bankruptcy in 2007 investors say that start up may have been before its time and under estimated how expensive this hardware can get. amazon on the other hand may have the resources to get this

project off the ground guys. >> that's interesting. there has been a lot of back and forth two steps forward one step back kate, great story. thank you. going to check where we stand here we did get an all-time high on the nasdaq s&p about a point away from going back to green. dow narrowed loss to 16. we are back in three minutes good morning guys. usually i go by the name soso. i am a chief... solutions engineer. the more you push yourself, the more confident you're going to get. and the more confidence you have, the more people are going to listen to you. especially as a woman in the industry. you need to actually just make sure that you push it. ♪ ♪ cisco. the bridge to possible.

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a picture perfect mission as far as we can tell according to elon musk after spacex completed a crucial test on sunday keeping nasa closer to space flight on u.s. soil hasn't happened since 2011 blew up a rocket around 12 miles above the atlantic ocean detached at about twice the altitude of a commercial jet liner. parachutes deployed. crew landed in the ocean demonstrating in the event of a launch failure in flight, in ast astronauts had been on board they would have been safe. why a big deal

next step for humans to fly to the space station final test mission before it becomes operational. spacex is now expected in the early second quarter this is all data dependent and comes after the other contractor nasa commercial crew program boeing experienced a test flight of star liner capsule just last month. so carl, i've been talking about this for years but finally it looks like 2020 could actually truly be the year that as know kno astronauts launch back into orbit. >> that's elon musk's goal now in the realm of the possible. >> it is in the realm of the possible and it's going to be one of many big things to watch this year for spacex. >> amazing story meantime the markets today do you session low down 112 as

we've we've raced points of that smile direct 53. kind of buries tesla 30% some amazing action in first couple weeks of the year. >> incredible. meantime the nasdaq turning positive a short while ago hitting a record high for the second nemt flex after the bell. >> let's get to the judge and a half nemt flex. >> carl, thanks. i'm scott wapner fronts and center this hour is it time to party or worry like it's 1999 the can't miss comments today from iconic hedge fund manager what they mean to this run away rally and your money it is 12 noon and this is the "fast money halftime report." >> the world's top investors making big calls on the market what they see and what you do from here. one of the best value investors on the street, selling a huge part of apple stake. they tell us why netflix getting ready to report earnings after the bell an