tv Street Signs CNBC February 21, 2020 4:00am-5:01am EST
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abides. good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines european stocks go red amid coronavirus fears. beijing insisting that factories are getting back to work >> german manufacturing pmi hit a 13-month high in the private data helping to offset a slow down in
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services unicredit shares see red as the named front runner for the top job pitching him against the current chief. an all-nighter doesn't stop angela merkel's early morning. commissioner's president tells cnbc it is important to fund climate and digital policies this is the reason why we are negotiating. there are many different interests that have to be convened with the budget it puts emphasis on the modern policies >> good morning. it is a very big day for your data we had pmi numbers coming out.
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we had the composite numbers the flash has come in at 51.6. services at 52.8 up from 52.5. manufacturing has come in much higher than expectations at 49.1 versus 47.9 in january a bit of a surprise given that some people were expecting that coronavirus would have impacted those. >> absolutely. the new business index which held at january's high that seems to be holding up. >> for further information on what we should be looking at here, let's get out to chris williamson at ihs market great to have you with us. you actually publish these
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indices. i've got to say, it is a bit surprising to see that data hasn't reflected some of the business more globally what do you point that down to >> high interest numbers we had the japanese and australian numbers and euro numbers that ticked higher one of the things we are seeing here are past stimuluses we had picked up quite a lot of damage exporting orders on manufacturing as well as in the service sector and companies like travel and tourism saw notable weaknesses there is a hint here that we have not seen the worst of it yet. surprise delivery times.
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these times have lengthened significantly since we have seen since december 2018. a lot of these are linked to the covid-19 outbreak in asia. this is leading to a drop in inputs and firms at the moment, they are managing to produce the question is can they get enough supplies to sustain production in march and april. we cannot have seen the full impact here in the eurozone. >> the flash manufacturing pmi future index has come in below 59.8 in january. perhaps the sign for now is holding up but there may be a few signs for the coming weeks and march that we may start to see more impacts from
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coronavirus. >> indeed. if the supply chain concerns are hitting manufacturing. many companies are okay for now but worried about future supplies and how they will dent their output in coming months. we are not out of the woods yet. encouraging strong numbers the ecb has been cheered by a ground swell of demands. we are still weak. really commensurate with that at best still the softest jobs creation we have seen in five years there is a mountains climb up through your normal trend rate growth the ecb will be chaired. there is a demand helping elect
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with the virus >> how do you reconcile the data particularly on the manufacturing side of things with the survey that came out earlier and showed significant deterioration with sentiment around the country >> there is a difference between sentiment and hard survey data, if you can -- like in germany, for example, the pmi is based on what companies have told us they've produced this month versus prior months. it is not sentiment based. they are looking at actual numbers. we ask what their future output is likely to be. that matches the sentiment side. at the moment, we've seen actual
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hard numbers pick up slightly. there is a technical aspect that people need to be aware of the headline pmi derived from five variables one of which supplies more delivery times it means supply chains are busy. there is more demand at the moment, the headline pmi boosted by the longer delays sending a little bit of a false signal look down and you've got indexes not so robust. didn't ride so much as the headline pmi you see things aren't as rosie as those headlines suggest >> what about the employment
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picture here i know that is a metric we've been following closely when it comes to germany tell us about this and the eurozone >> moving in the right direction. you've got manufacturing losses being offset and having said that, the actual rate of job losses in manufacturing is coming down. so moving in the right direction, jobs have been created. it is way down on what it was the first half of last year when we were seeing strong jobs growth the labor market is still one of the weakest we've had since 2015 if companies are highly uncertain about the future and reluctant to add to their payroll numbers. the escalating virus threat to growth also the wider global economy
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and prospects of weak demand persisting still jobs got weaker and picking up notably in manufacturing. there is a good jobs leading indicator and ratio which had risen quite sharp. that suggested that firms would start producing more and meet that production. providing they can get supplies to sustain the output growth >> thank you for pushing out those numbers. the chief business economist at ihs market >> let's get you to the latest in the coronavirus figures confirming nearly 900 new cases of coronavirus on thursday, which marks a sharp increase from the day before. the figures include more than 200 people testing positive in
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two prisons in hubei. south korea today has identified two cities as special care zones after having 52 new cases. china's commerce ministry expects a sharp fall in exports. expects foreign companies to resume by the end of this month. a warning that affects on foreign direct investment are likely to persist through march. >> let's talk about how markets are reacting nasdaq down about 0.7. overnight, a bit more mixed.
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better better performance you can see the handover to europe in the red. overall, we are coming off record highs for the stoxx index here we have been focused on coronavirus and earnings season. on the week, we are looking like we'll end the week slightly softer down 0.4. let's break it down. you can see every one in europe is trading on the back foot. ftse 100 down about 40 points. 0.5% weaker. pointing to european indices, we just had those flash pmi numbers come out for the month of february surprisingly strong. even german manufacturing data
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came out we'll see that play out in euro indices here something worth baring in mind, especially if there is going to be catch up. cac down, dax down about 0.1%. let's talk individual sectors. we are coming to the earnings season here. a lot going on in bank space banks are down about half a percentage point today looking at a lot of turnover those are some of the names that are reacting today and early morning. luxury goods are down. bush y burberry down. oil and gas coming under pressure due to demand and
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pressure on coronavirus. and on a day like this, no surprise we have defenses trading on top defenses up 0.2% let me flush out that banking story around hsbc. unicredit ceo has reportedly emerged as one of the main external candidates. he has been in talks about the position quinn remains a contender to stay in the role permanently he said, he did not want to be a, quote, caretaker leader hsbc up about the flat line but interesting share price reaction there. >> it has been a busy couple of weeks in the c suite at europe's
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major banks. the man named to replace the helm at the swiss bank after thiam stood down following the spying scandal so many management changes for european banking sector. just to talk a little more about the hsbc story this emerged in the last 24 hours one of the two front runners. it is surprising pledging to shed it would be very strange that noel quinn comes out with such an ambitious plan only to be replaced by another ceo from
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another bank the restructuring we announced the share reaction perhaps quite telling. they've been driving the turn around in unicredit. he's driven structure there and really turned things around. this would be a huge benefit should he continue to do things there. for the unicredit side, this would be a blow. in the case yesterday, we will be talking about this. from ubs, fundamentally, this is different of businesses geographically let's not forget 70% of the revenues or profits are derived from the region. they are very much an emerging
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market, asian-focused bank whereas mostly european, italian banking. that does tell you a lot thinking about the challenges moving forward it seems like the sole incentive is to get the books in order and take the restructuring that the books really need and spell out. >> really important for hsbc to have somebody at the helm to bring a different set of experiences to the table allianz hiked profit target for 2020 net profit came in at 1.86 billion euros up 10% compared to last year and announced plans to extend the buyback program. the cfo said the buyback program
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is essential to maintaining capit capitol -- capital deployment to the group. >> our earning shares compared to 2016, up double digit this is from good operating performance and also discipline and buyback capital management >> in the auto space, renault shares lower after nissan said it will delay production in factories due to the coronavirus. they have two plants in the hubei province stay with us european leaders arrive for day two of budget talks. negati negotiations still at an impasse. more when we come back
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signs. european leaders remain at an impasse with overnight talks only concluding just before 7:00 in the morning wow. sylvia joins us live these leaders love a good all nighter, don't they? any chance of getting some white smoke? >> no. we heard from the danish prime minister who just arrived. she got asked whether we could expect a breakthrough. she indicated that is very unlikely she actually suggested that there is going to be another summit to figure out the next eu budget let's look at some remarks from moments ago. >> i'm willing to stay and prepared to stay the whole weekend but, no, i don't think we'll reach another agreement. >> another meeting sometime in
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march? >> i don't know. it is not my decision. >> the leaders have just reconvened here. throughout the night, the president of the council in charge of figuring out how the next budget is going to look like dealing with every member state until 7:00 a.m. local time now talking to see if they can come up with a final number for the next seven years of eu spending it seems unlikely that they will achieve that today on one hand, countries with a higher spending and bigger budget and want to contribute less to the eu budget. let's see when and how they'll figure this out. >> it is never easy as you know very well from your time in brussels we look forward to seeing you
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back there in march. turning now to german politics returning to polls this weekend, the first vote since earlier this month social democrats are expected to win but not without losing significant portion of votes to the greens angela merkel's party is at an all-time low annetta, give us a sense of how polling has evolved and what is at stake here this weekend >> reporter: actually, there is officially not a lot at stake for the national level but unofficially, the record low showing will put more pressure on the party to get their act
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together germans like stability and they like to know what comes next here comes the problem it is clear angela merkel will not be the next chancellor in germany but it is also not clear how she's going to organize her succession the experiment didn't work with akk who surprisingly resigned. the experiment was that there was a chairman of the cdu who is not the chancellor of germany. this is apparently not working now the calls are getting louder and louder that angela merkel should resign early to make space for the new chairman of the cdu. highly unlikely but still an off chance that this will happen the social democrats forming the
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commission are already saying that they only stick to that commission if angela stays in that chancellory the cdu is probably in the most unstable phase since she took over many years ago when there was an affair surrounding party money. i guess the cdu needs to get its act together sooner than later in order to regain popularity with the vote as well. another side effect is the falling and the liberals are falling as well. whether they will manage to get more than 5% of the votes, which is the threshold to enter parliament, remains to be seen back to you. >> thank you for the breakdown we await those results on
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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> and i'm joumanna bercetche. these are your headlines stocks go red amid coronavirus fears. beijing insisting factories are getting back to work german manufacturing pmi hit a third year high hoping for an offset in services european shares see red as the named front runner for the
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top job named for hsbc pitching him against the interim chief. eu leaders make little head way in discussing the block's next budget. do . >> i'm willing to stay i'm prepared to stay the whole weekend but i don't think we are going to reach an agreement. >> another meeting probably in march? >> yes >> when? >> i don't know. it is not my decision. >> all right more positive data flash pmi numbers that came in at 51.9. that is an improvement from the flat number seen in january. the services number came in at 53.3 a slit dip
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>> another strong set of numbers from the union falling on the stronger data earlier. we are seeing a bit of an uptick in the pound and on the euro on the back of the january speaking data better than both blocks we could see right above 1.2920. let's bring in an expert on the subject. the chief economists from barclays the uk numbers surprisingly strong now coronavirus doesn't seem to be biting yet >> interesting set of data across europe including for the uk interesting, the composite indicator which merges manufacturing and services comes in unchanged or a little along the lines we expected. meaning the kind of rebound in january kind of lives on in february the composition is surprising
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with manufacturing and services show some signs of weakness. everybody will want to read into that whether rebound in the uk or impact of covid-19. make in the uk, this has more impact in tourism and shopping than in manufacturing. we'll need more data for that. undoubtedly, this is constructi constructive data. pointing to 3% in phase one. that is good news. >> i think the immediate first question is what this means for the bank of england. when you put it into context, also both offering a bit of evidence that the uk economy could be turning a little bit brighter >> agreed. the story, nobody really
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challenges the question is how big a rebound, how to sustain a rebound. 0en that front, the bank expects a 2% growth in q 1 that bar to be happy is fairly low. pmi this morning, you mentioned retail sales to some extension, only in the inflation as well. that does suggest that data is slightly stronger than expected. the natural conclusion for that is we shouldn't expect any rate reaction anytime soon. that was kind of the thing we had in january in january, we had weak data q4 was bleak you could build a case for rate cut. but that is increasingly difficult as the rate takes hold >> we also need to address the elephant in the room that formal
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takes are set to begin in march. both sides set out pretty strong stances. there is a lot of daylight between the two. it seems like we are in a situation for tradeoffs. they are being vocal that they want to maintain full autonomy at the end of the day. what impact does that have from the economic perspective given the tradeoff between the two >> given the latest statements, these are the very early stages. negotiations have not actually even started we think both sides are digging trenches and let them do so. most of what they are saying was already known last year for that matter we watch this and read the papers that are published.
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in trade in the second half of this year. if anything, we do expect some downside risks in the second half of this year if the government insists on maintaining, that means limited access to the market sectors like industry or some service sector as well will have to restrict activity and to maybe relocate or change things, et cetera that will come at a cost a cost that will become visible as we get closer to the end of the year >> i want to ask you about the new immigration rules imposed by boris johnson and his government what kind of impact would you expect this to have on the uk economy? >> so far, a lot of growth we've seen in the uk has been generated through immigration
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and demographics the uk had a strong population growth because of birthrate and immigration. the natural conclusion of the restrictive system means you are bringing down the headline growth you can achieve now, it is not said that because you are introducing a point system by definition you will become restrictive it does mean in order to manage, you would do so. all the headlines ahead will have to be worked out as the year goes by a lot of sectors think about construction and distribution, hotels, restaurants, retail. they rely on a lot of european migration and not a lot of that will be skilled. there will be a lot of fine tuning between the reaction made
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and the reaction of that system next year. i will wait for that fine tuning to happen before i change the growth forecast. >> seeing on the back of those numbers, we are keeping a close eye on the eu arrivals we are talking about that. it was a late evening, early morning from many eu leaders that that meeting actually wrapped up at 7:00 in the morning. we are expecting to see major leaders arrive for day two of the summit for now, juliana will give us a break down of how the markets are doing. you can see red across the board. the main focus this morning, no doubt those february flash pmis we've got for the european economy, overall better than the market had been expecting.
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interesting we are seeing this pullback in stocks this comes after a weaker session on wall street nasdaq broke a three-day win streak also to put it into perspective, the question here for investors is if weaker data comes through, would that increase the chances for more fiscal spending this is what it means for the fiscal outlook and monetary policy putting it all together kicking off the final day of trade this week on the back foot. interesting moves here compared to what we've seen recently, the euro trading much further compared to the dollar around 30 basis points higher. the euro has been in freefall compared to the green back amid the coronavirus outbreak the pound trading firmer against the dollar, up about 30 basis points as well still below that 1.30 mark
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now u.s. futures, let's look at wall street and how we are in for another weak session state side the dow looking to open triple digits s&p and nasdaq looking at a weaker part. the nasdaq breaking a three-day win streak turning to politics, the white house chief of staff was left unimpressed on finding alternatives to huawei on the uk 5g rollout arjun has more no question that the u.s. was unhappy for the decision to allow huawei to operate on a limited basis. that seems to be the case. there doesn't seem to be an agreement in sight between the
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uk and u.s >> the uk's stance is no coun-- that no country they are speaking to should be continuing to use huawei. what this reveals is a greater push from the u.s. to look for alternatives to huawei we know the u.s. doesn't have a direct competitor to knnokia an ericcson it doesn't have someone who can do the whole end-to-end 5g setup. we heard attorney general william barr saying the u.s. should take stake ericcson
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also financing deals chinese banks are able to give to telcos the suggestion that u.s. should use some is of this money to help finance the deal and invest in other companies that would be able to compete with huawei. i had a chance to meet up with the networking business and ask a little about the push to wean itself off the companies >> the 5g standard discussion to early launch, that's about 10 years. that's building on a standard body that exists, together with bodies like this, et cetera. we have the collective group and government off the regulatory
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people they are the people that have been developing these. if you look at those things, they don't have that sort of collective group, nor the standards. there is a lot of complexity there that doesn't mean it can happen or won't happen the one key thing is perhaps the u.s. has not undervested in tin this area. one of the reason china and huawei are moving forward is because we realize that is very important to the world the u.s. will do what the u.s. does whether they back iran or whatever, i wouldn't say it doesn't matter of course it matters that is a long game and has its complexity built into it >> it is unrealistic to expect the u.s. to create a company out
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of nowhere in the near term that could compete in the 5g space? >> it would be a challenge >> interesting comments there coming out of the cto of huawei's carrier service the point he's making is that the u.s. is underinvested in 5g. but then, it is easy for them to say that given the amount of subsidies and support huawei has from the chinese government. that is not an equal or fair thing here >> compared to any other business that gets state backing. we've seen that compared to the u.s. semiconductor business that is so strong it is clear that the u.s. has underinvested. it is difficult. part of what he was saying there, the 5g standards, it has taken about 10 years to finalize
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and implement. that's a long time that is not like the u.s. can just pop up a company. what can we use existing companies. we are happy with ericcson and nokia. they don't have an end-to-end solution can they bring these together and release some funds to block huawei out of market if they are able to offer a viable alternative to say, we can provide everything for your 5g network, just don't use huawei that seems to be rt stance the u.s. is taking >> huge challenge, i should say, that the u.s. need to think about over the next couple of years. a story that won't go away thank you for breaking it down for us t-mobile and sprint have
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renegotiated the terms of their merger leaving softbank with a share in the company the parent firm will take a 43% stake in the new entity. softbank agreed to the change to avoid a delay. this has been a long time coming if you have any thoughts on the deal fascinating space. thoughts on huawei tweet us @streetsignscnbc. coming up, a pop icon you can't get out of your head i sat down with the star in dubai. we have a snipit of that interview you ulwodn't want to miss
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lower after announcing it would take over-e-trade. it is expected to close in the fourth quarter coming under pressure to consolidate as disrupts push commission fees near zero percent. the federal reserve vice chairman has poured cold water on talk of a rate cut. he told cnbc exclusively, he does not believe most market participants except one. they voted to hold the line at the benchmark rate at the past two meetings reiterating the u.s. economy is still strong although the fed is monitoring the impact of coronavirus. >> there is exports to china and part of the commitments in the phase one deal was for u.s. exports to ramp up we'll be looking at that supply chains are important.
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so to the extent that is disrupted, that will show up in terms of input to the u.s. economy. you have the effect overall activity we are really looking at overall activity it is too soon to tell market pricing is a little tricky there is the market expectation of rates what p i prefer to do is look at surveys of what many folks do and what they think we are going to do. there is a probability of outcomes even though market pricing can suggest that >> roger stone, a long-term advisor to president trump has been sentenced to three years in
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prison trump hit out saying stone was, quote, treated very unfairly the president hinted that while there were no immediate plans to pardon, there would be plans to recommend so at some point it said he was angry after learning one of his team had informed a bipartisan house select that russia preferred the president for reelection and might interfere to secure the win. mr. trump announced he is replacing him with the country u.s. ambassador to germany, known to be an ar dant trump loyalist let's talk boxing. the highly an tticipated remarc
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between fury and wilder. the last meeting ended with a split decision draw. fans are expecting an explosive contest this saturday. the big difference this time is the purse. fighters are expected to concern millions fury signing an $80 million-pound, five-fight deal with hbo some exciting news for you, for me with a career spanning over 30 years, kylie minogue opened up with me and giving this piece of
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advice >> when i did start, i didn't know anything about anything i do consider myself fortunate that i got through it okay i would say that is down to not only the people i encountered but the way i was raised, my manager was very protective and considerate, definitely my mom raised me and my sister. there was never a question of can you do this as a female. it was that everything is possible my advice to them would be, god, where do you start try to be true to yourself the beautiful thing i've discovered is experience there is no short cut to your craft. some people are blessed and know
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it oall from the outset. i didn't i had to learn i was pushed down soum times you have to wush throupush thro through that >> you can see my full interview on saturday and sunday here on cnbc joumanna, i have never felt taller in my life. >> i have to say, i have never seen you look more tall. i can't get all the songs out of my head now. all i can think about is ♪ ♪ i'm spinning around she comes across very, very humble and really registers that she has been very lucky with her career and pointed out that she started out at a time there was no social media.
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>> first of all, i'm impressed how many of her songs you've worked in. on a more serious note, she was incredibly humble. her advice is advice we can all take you will stumble you will fell. you will get pushed down it is all about continuing to go and building up experience i thought that was a really good take away. i would encourage you to watch that interview it was an absolute pleasure to speak to her >> especially given the longevity of her career. she's been going on 30 years now. that is impressive especially in this day of fleeting social media fame she has been around a really long time. >> very impressive let's get back to what is happening here in europe we are keeping a close eye on brussels leaders remain at an impasse as
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the second day of talks get underway german counselor and commissioner president are among the early arrivals as talks resumes just before 7:00 a.m telling reporters, she doesn't see a deal being struck this weekend. >> clearly the leaders are flooding back in for day two they are probably all exhausted after the late finish. quick look at futures before i head out on vacation the three futures are pointed lower. dow seen opening about 170 points lower for this session. that is it for "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. "worldwide exchange" is up next.
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