constellation brands debuting new seltzers this year about 50% of seltzer drinkers made the transition from beer, 40% from wine, so women 25 to 45, they are the largest group of consumers according to jeffries, but seltzer appears to have wide appeal, maybe a bro factor. >> maybe but probably not. but anyway, frank, amazing growth numbers thank you very much for that we are tight on time, we're out of time on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. have a great weekend >> live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york's times square, this is "fast money. i'm courtney reagan in this evening for melissa lee. your traders on the deck tonight, tim seymour, brian kelly and guy adami, we're joined by chris barone, head of technical analysis tonight on fast, a big shiny bright spot in today's sea of red. why gold cob preseuld be presen

golden opportunity chris barone said this sector has been immune to market weakness he's going to tell us what it is. later, we're firing up the grill, because there a big burger battle brewing, three food stocks that have our traders licking their chops. >> nice. >> yes, like that? hungry already we start with another rough day on wall street stocks falling across the board with the nasdaq and s&p 500. treasury yields tumbling the 30-year note hitting its lowest level ever, like ever, and check out some previous high flying names like microsoft, apple, amd all pretty deep in the red today. so has the red hot momentum trade finally hit a giant red brick wall guys, the momentum names, those big tech plays, they're over >> i'll play your reindeer game. i'll say the answer is yes if you want a line in the sand, i'll give it to you. it comes in the form of the tlt. you've got to close above 150 even in the tlt which should

make ten year yields, around 1.4%, 1.38, then the game is over you can hit a point of diminishing marginal returns where low yields are no longer bullish for equities, and we are right there on a razor's edge away from that to answer your question, yes, amd big down day on 85 million shares, almost twice normal volume that to me, at least in the short-term looks like a top. >> sounds like my economic class, diminishing marginal returns. >> do you like that? >> i don't think i can draw the chart. >> the utility we referred to. >> i remember talking about that what do you think tim? >> the marginal utility of central banks continues to be that which i think allows momentum to continue i recognize that we have some sad news globally with the coronavirus and certainly as these numbers become more pronounced this is really what the market is responding to. we've also seen a market that doesn't seem to care if you look at some of the macro out overnight you had encouraging numbers out of the eu in terms of pmis. you've had very good housing numbers.

the u.s. consumer is in the same place they were. central banks are in the same place they were. if you think about what's been driving momentum, i could totally agree looking at a lot of charts that actually look like they've run into that wall and are now heading back to the other side but i think this is where the market goes after the kind of move that we've had, it's hard for me to say momentum is gone, esk if as an investors the fundamentals say maybe it should. >> i'm not sure the central banks are in the same place. if i look at what's going on in europe, they're at 0 rates, they're not going to go any lower. sure, they can print a little bit more money, but you know, the margin utility of the extra dollar e extra euro they print is no longer any good. they need fiscal stimulus there. japan, they've had 0 rates or negative rates for a long time, and they are likely going into a recession. so i think we're at this cusp here where what central banks have been doing is going to start being questioned by investors. now, that doesn't mean that the u.s. stock market has to fall apart because you could just see this huge flow of capital into

the u.s., which we're seeing in the tlt, in the bond market, and to me those are the biggest flows that you see out there if people decide that, you know what, the coronavirus impact on the economy is temporary, it's only going to last a quarter, and by april everything's going to be okay, then i do think you see people rush back but until we have that answer, it's going to be tough sledding. >> i think the big question is do you want to change the defensive trade at this point? yields held that 142 level this morning. i think that was important the dollar reversed sthaharply f the highs. you look at the defensive groups, staples despite lower bond yields have not outperformed over the last several weeks. there's some little flaws in this chase of defensive trade i think we should be mindful of. the move in the dollar was a two standard deviation move. that's a big story i think the fact that 10s hit that 140 level and held it is also a big story. >> it's interesting because you could say the same thing about

apple being 10% above its 200 moving day or whichever one you're looking at. both sides of that trade are a little extended. i think it gets back to the tone of the market doesn't change on a dime have we been building to this? maybe. have we gotten to a place where the momentum that came from the fed in the fourth quarter had to run out of gas, as much as i am skeptical about valuations and i do think that there's diminishing marginal university coming from central bank action, i don't see central banks stepping back, and i think that's what the markets need. >> some of the market -- some of the market does see the central banks stepping in here we're starting to price in this rate cut in june or maybe another one by the end of the year even though the central bankers and fed officials on cnbc today dbt move the needle towards that that's what the market thinks. >> chris made an interesting point, we mentioned con edison last night had a big move to the downside today the tape was not helpful but that's a stock that has been impervious i don't think it's particularly good i don't think anybody's saying this i hope it gets better as well as

everybody else out there bond yields have been falling long before anybody heard of coronavirus, and chris is going toe talk about gold as well. that was rallying long before anybody talked about this. keep it in perspective as much as you want to blame or give some label that it's coronavirus, i think that's been in place long before the coronavirus. >> let's also think about what are some different messages, the defensive story. german dako german dacs new high this week shanghai back too where it was pre-virus. is the market looking past this and saying we already took bond yields from 190 to 140, what's the next big move. i think what's going to be important here watch the stocks in groups most leveraged to this trade. watch european luxury retail, watch the shippers, very leveraged to that. they're holding up better than you might expect. >> i think that's the risk, though, right? to me that's what the sell we've had over the last couple of days has been the fact that perhaps the virus, it might be expanding to other countries, we saw it in south korea, in iran

i think the market got a little bit spooked about that again, if this goes away and it's a temporary shock, i think the global economy does well, but europe is probably going into recession japan likely going to recession. the longer this extends, the more risk to the market. >> let's talk about being spooked because today's market action did send investors seeking some safety. gold hitting the highest level in seven years if this is just the beginning of a bigger selloff, is gold the place to be, bk? is this where you want to stay and hide >> yeah, i mean, i think so. gold has been moving well before we had this selloff in the equity markets, and that's a response to what you think the -- what's going on around the world. again, zero rates everywhere generally speaking it costs money to hold onto gold. you got to store it someplace, and so if rates are low or at zero, there's better -- you know, u you have a better return in gold, and if you look at digital gold, bitcoin, that's

done quite well as well. macro funds going in there anticipating you're going to have much lower rates which again, i think gold tells you the ten-year is probably going below 142. >> gold getting precious for you? >> it has been for a while gone from 30 to 50 effectively in a straight line and appeared where mining stocks really haven't done something like that in a very long time. i think newmont mining has been trying to tell you something, and what i think they're trying to tell you is they're calling the bluff of central banks globally, and that i don't think is a particularly good thing for equity markets >> it's interesting, first of all, you have to put gold in the context. this is not a savior this is not a 10% position in your portfolio, i don't think. it may be for some people, and those are the picks and shovels folks, but if you look -- and guy talks a lot about the gdx, if you look where we are, somewhere around 3065 on the close today, somewhere around 31, 31 1/2, you're not only at essentially two-year highs you're about to break out through five-year highs. this rally in gold has been

building over the last two years, and i was very skeptical on the move in gold up to about 1350 because that's where it had been failing for years since we've broken at that, why shouldn't the miners do the same thing, especially in a world where gold miners are being run very differently it's not growth at all costs these are much better balance sheets than they used to be and i think that looks interesting. >> we want to dig little bit more into the miners beyond the precious metal itself. could this be the golden opportunity for your money this way to play so let's go to the charts. chris, head over, break it down for us show us what we should be looking at. >> one of the big stories, and tim hit on this, goldstrength predates before we knew about this virus i also think gold has been going up as the dollar has gone up as well gold has diverged from the typical relationship we see from usd. i would rather be a buyer of gold than dollars here here's gold over the last several years. the big breakout for us came above this 1,400 level late last

year it had been resistant for the better part of the last three years, so we're clearly through that let's put this in some historical context there's nothing in front of us where can we go? if we take a little step back and just look at gold really over the last 30 years, you see two big up moves you had this big base we started to form in the late '90s, big rally that followed, peaked at about 1950 in 2011, and then we've had this big base in this rally. gold trade 1610 today, 1950 is the next major level i suspect that's ultimately where this is headed, and if you look at what else may catch up here, it's silver. silver has not broken out yet. i think if you're looking for more beta, this is another way to play it starting to base, you start to get gold and silver working together, i think it's very reflective that there's more to go for this precious metal move. our favorite stock, guy talks

about it as well, newmont, this is a five-year breakout. the stock's been in the base for the better part of the last three years. finally getting up through 40, challenging 45, i think 60 is the target here. you go all the way back to where it was in 2011, traded as high as 75, so there's some major breakouts going on with the gold stockings, newmont is an example. i suspect silver will get involved here as well, but gold in context of history, look at those 2011 highs near that 1900, 1950 levels i think is the longer term target of where this can go. >> good stuff. i want to toss it around the desk guy, what do you think n newmont at 60? does that feel like a level that's good. >> off camera, tim and i were talking to each other because i want to tee guy up one of the best guests we've had on this show over the 13 years we've been doing this show is woun louise yamata and she says. >> she says the longer the base

or the larger the base, the longer the space very spinal tappy type thing without getting into great detail i agree 100% to tim's level in the gdx, here's your line in the sand you close above 32 in that sucker, and it's off to the races for all these miners it closed today i think at 3065. >> what do you think of gold and i want to get your take on silver too, we haven't gone there yet. >> i bought silver today that tells you what i think about it i think it actually can catch up, and i think the key point is what chris made. these metals and gold in particular have done this with a strong dollar, so imagine if you get any weakness in the dollar what's going to happen to these things so you've taken that kind of strong dollar is bad for gold out of the equation for this trade, and to me i think, you know, gold higher, silver makes that catchup, and silver's kind of a fun one to trade because it's extremely volatile. >> is gold going to go as high as 1950 ultimately >> i think it breaks out above

that not tomorrow. >> very soon >> and the other part of this, and i think there's unanimity, great work by chris, but if you look at other minors and other reflags trades, but the charts on a rio tinto don't look so good look at the steel companies, they're all trading on the economic macro kind of malaise that people are fearful of and where the bond yeelgds yields. gold miners who operationally are better than they used to be. we're all talking about that top down breakout level. >> is it possible gold is telling us at some point in the future inflation will be a problem? gold started to turn in the late '90s, '97, '98, before any of us could imagine what oil and commodities would do over the decade maybe there is a cost to low bond yields for the last ten years. i think that's the message from gold here. >> got it, chris, thanks good work on all those charts.

coming up, fire up your grills we've got a triple decker of burger earnings on deck. can you sink your teeth into any of these names oh, my we're serving up some options. and shares of zoom digital struggling today how should we play it ahead of its next report? and just a reminder, you can always watch us or listen to us ppve on the go on the cnbc a we are live from times square in new york city. much more on "fast money" right after this aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. and now for their service to the community,

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welcome back, we're gearing up for a big juicy burger battle next week shake shack kicks things off on monday with its earnings that stock falling today after suntrust downgraded it to hold from buy shack's transition to a single delivery partner could pose some new risks to sales then on wednesday we'll hear from wendy's hoping strong earnings will add to this year's gains and we round out the burg bonanza with beyond meat, still down 50% from its all-time high. that's been quite a ride for that name. which stock would you bite into ahead of earnings, tim >> i tell you what, you know, if you look at shack it's kind of a mixed story. it's up 25% year-to-date that was off a pretty painful fourth quarter

if you think about the fourth quarter guide and where they are, the head wind's coming from delivery i think are pretty well telegraphed down to 3% or 4% comp the market's expecting that. it's really what they're going to guide on the second half of 2020 in terms of restaurant and gross margins around 22, 23% i think that that would be a relief i know that in the environment here where restaurant stocks have been proven to be defensive, this is a high multiple one unlike a mcdonald's, but i like shack into these numbers. >> up 40% in a year but most of it is the last three months if you look at in move. >> this is a big level here, high 60s, low 70s, if it can absorb the downgrade i think bullish development. >> the best chart among the group is wendy's, mcdonald's chart fairly good too. i think those are the two leaders in this space. i'd be reluctant to be a buyer of shack with the downgrade. wendy's is the best chart. >> coming out with breakfast soon too. >> in a down market with a downgrade, it closed at the

highs of the day, so now if i think about it from a risk reward perspective i'm more on tim's side i want to buy it i've already had the selloff ahead of earnings. people are concerned about that. clearly there's buyers in there scooping it up i've got a great risk reward going into earnings. all they have to do is do a little bit better i think the sentiment switches. >> i was just thinking that. they had already warned us about the disruption from going to the single delivery. that's all in there. >> maybe you get this bump up. >> i'm with tim and bk the stock went from 105 to 160. >> did you work at the shack >> with the hair net did you ware the hair net? >> there it is >> look at that. >> oh, wow, fancy. >> look at that. no, seriously. >> did anyone eat what he was serving? >> of course i did. >> no gloves >> all right >> you cooked for yourself. >> it was before the restaurant opened >> no wonder the stock was down today. >> the hot dogs, you split them down the middle, put cheese in

those suckers, outstanding very interesting with a 20% short interest, people have gotten squeezed in these names before it might happen again on monday. and thank you for allowing me to work at the shake shack. it was wonderful experience. >> really got an inside look okay, but we didn't talk about beyond meat at all who's got a thought about that one? >> i think the most compelling thing about the chart is the short interest is 22%. the stock acts pretty well here in spite of that is it a big -- should it be probably not but when you get the situation where the shorts are so concentrated on one name, if one thing goes right, there's a squeeze. so beyond meat i think a candidate for a squeeze here. >> does valuation feel right here >> i'd have to look at where it trades relative to its peer group, but i think the key takeaway when you look at this group, they can actually be defensive in a tough take, and you saw that from some of these names today. >> again, in a tough tape they can be defensive but ultimately a name like this, in a world where we are wrestling with s&p, you know, 3,300, et cetera,

look, i'd say you get out of the way of these high multiple stocks and i think you had a chance to see some of that today even if this one was somewhat defensive. >> for more on the burger battle head over to our website, cnbc.com here's what else we have coming up >> it's friday, so you know what that means, we're bringing you a chart of the week. we'll take a look at the one name that stood out during a very busy week and later on options action, it was one of the hottest trades this week, virgin galactic rocketing to all time highs ahead of earnings next week. so how do you position yourself before the report? we have some answers l that and more after the break. that is amazing.

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welcome back to fast money be sure to tune in to "squawk box" monday morning for our annual ask warren show and sign up for cnbc's buffet watch news letter just head to buffettne buffettnewsletter.com. chris, this one goes out to you. you say there's one sector that's been immune to the recent market weakness. what is it >> it's bow tech this is the xbi, the bio tech etf. one of the best performing group since the iowa caucus three weeks ago despite the perceived political risk out there, bio tech acts exceptionally well there's also a lot of short interest here. 50 million shares on the xbi are short. you start to break this thing above 100, this is a major, major breakout it's a great chart it's been dead money for the better part of the last several years. we like it here. we like it long. it's been immune to this weakness. >> the way this has traded in a baa baa bad market and it's getting to 100, generally when stocks

get into the 90s, 100 is that magnet, if you can break it out above that and you get some kind of turn around in the market here, you get a bull market here, this thing could break out much higher. >> yeah, it should be noted also, the xbi very different than the ibb, excuse me, ib be, very heavy at the top with gilead and biogen et cetera. this is a very diversified play, and it's outperformed that one i think you ride those balance sheets in bio tech land. >> it's had a huge move, banging up against levels we haven't seen in many years amgen has actually pulled back you have an opportunity there as well, and even gilead is showing signs of life for the first time in a long time i'm with chris on this one. >> what's interesting, when this chart started to break out a couple months ago, it did it on huge volume. then as it consolidated earlier in the year on very low volume i think the stock's being accumulated. i think people are buying it i think there's real money behind it. typically when names are being

accumulated on big volume, it means big things are ahead. >> interesting sector to continue to watch, with everything going on politically as well. here we go, it's time for the final trade, this show flew by so fast >> courtney, thank you for being here mcdonald's, thank you for being there for me all my life, and the shock over the last two to three months started to get this chart back to the 220 level. i think you should watch that level, but i think the valuation defensively in this market we're going to double down on bio tech, xpi, get it up through 100. that's a very big breakout. >> a lot of strengths in those prer mes precious metals. i still think silver is better than gold at this point. >> courtney, it's great having you here we asked you in the break if there was one constant you could go to see. what are you going to see? i said billy joel or elton john. >> i respect that. >> '70s or '80s bill le joel >> '80s. i'm a kid of the '80s. played piano growing up.

>> i would rather the '70s billy joel and elton john. >> very good stuff, guys thank you all. that does it for fast money for us tonight ptnst go anywhere because "oio action" is up next. dy for what's next. (man) we weave security into their business... (second man) virtualize their operations... (third man) and could even build ai into their customer experiences. we also keep them ready for the next big opportunity. like 5g. (woman) where machines could talk to each other and expertise could go anywhere. (woman) when it comes to digital transformation, verizon keeps business ready. ♪

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happy friday, everyone it's 5:30 p.m. here at the nasdaq you know what that means, it's time for "options action." here's what we've got on deck. >> lowes home and garden. >> yes, spring is just around the corner it's supposed to be in the 50s in the new york area this week, and carter worthies the seeds of prosperity are plant insteed ins name. >> plus. >> things are getting a little hairy in virgin galactic options. mike coe draws on his experience to help you stay safe in this space. an