you're not a prognosticator, can't answer that -- >> i no longer work at citi as a chief economist. >> bill, good to hear from you thank you so much. lot of good ideas and concepts that's bill lee. we appreciate it that does it for "the exchange" today. i'll go join tyler for "power lunch" and see you there ♪ thank you very much, kelly we'll have you over in just a moment i'm tyler mathson. new at 2 at wednesday on "power lunch. the dow turning negative giving up all of 460-point rally as coronavirus fears grip wall street and the fda warns we are on the cusp now of a pandemic. and as more and more corona cases pop up around the world, the u.s. readies its response. president trump will hold a news conference in just a few hours, 6:00 p.m. eastern we're expecting it we have the details there. plus, the crude crush picks up steam oil falling further from that key $50 a barrel level

how low can it go? "power lunch" starts right now we'll explain. ♪ thank you, tyler as markets lose their gains on coronavirus headlines, we have all the angles of this story and the selloff today covered for you. meg terrel has the latest on the comments that took down the rally. bob and rick santelli following the volatile moves in the stock and bond markets ameamon javers has the white hoe response. >> update officials saying it's fair to say we're on the cusp of the pandemic according to a bloomberg report early this afternoon. head of the fda center for buy logics evaluation and research said there is significant concern given the virus has spread to six continentcontinens we saw the first case confirmed in latin america that country getting a raised travel advisory from the u.s. state department based oen the sped of covid-19 there

dr. marks saying the time lines of vaccine development mean one won't be available before the initial wave of the disease passes moderna stock soaring it delivered the first batch of the potential vaccine to the nhi for a human clinical trial which could begin in a month of two. that company races to develop medicines for the novel coronavirus with vir gilead has a trial planned as well. the market hit its lows on these reports that there were, how do i say it correctly, what's going on in nassau county, what have we learned >> right so there was a conference from nassau county today. seems like it was pretty standard procedure we know people coming back from china, americans who visited there in the last two weeks are being asked to self isolate. so to quarantine themselves in their homes to make sure that if they have any symptoms that they are letting health authorities and their doctors know

this was about 80 folks who had gone through that procedure. it is not anything in terms of any exposure here in the united states sit that standard procedure of coming back from china and being to self monitor. >> essentially the news story is that these people came back, they went through the regular process. they were found not to test positive for coronavirus at the end of that? >> according to a report they tested six people and five people's test have come back negative they haven't gotten the sixth result back, so nobody in that group -- >> how many people self quarantined as a result of coming back from china >> in this update they said about 83. >> about 83. have all 83 been tested or we don't know >> no, they wouldn't test everybody if they didn't have symptoms. >> right and counties all over the country this is happening. so there are dozens and dozens of folks who have traveled from china who are doing this. >> the bottom line there's not 83 cases in nassau county new york. >> by no means. >> which is suburban long

island, six tested five have come back negative one we don't know. >> correct. >> we can expect these headlines to be the focus for this market. meg, we appreciate it. >> thags. in fact, the corona headlines causing big swings today. we were up 460 and went negative at the dow bob? i have seen a lot of volatile bays in the last 20 years but this is extreme even by those standards here. here is dow futures showing the preopen as well. this is down 500 points concerns about it spreading over in europe this is prior to the open. then look at this long rally going in this is 800 points to the upside on hopes that maybe it's going to be more contained then of course you heard the headlines that meg was talking about, now we're down 060 what does all of this mean today's dow futures. put up here. this is extraordinary to see this, down 500, up 800, down 600, all in a few hours. it's very simple, it means the markets are clueless, that's a technical term we use down here. nobody knows what's going on and the market is reflecting that.

look at the stock-like caterpillar, 131 to 127 on day this is a 4% move in a matter of two hours. it doesn't do that normally. it doesn't get anything close to that that's an idea the cluelessness i'm talking about. we need more data and time to figure this out. what i do know for sure is earnings are coming down here and in europe. let me show you the latest numbers today. 3% gain expected this is going to come down the analysts have been on top of this for the last few weeks. they have been taking the numbers down almost 5.5% just two weeks ago. it's even more pronounced in europe the stock 060 is the s&p 500 for europe, 0% growth expected in europe now this quarter it was almost 60, just a couple weeks ago. you see how fast they're taking the numbers down in europe that may accelerate as well. guys, back to you. >> bob, thank you very much. yields are continuing to slide lower today and rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme hi, rick.

>> hi, tyler you know, a month to date of three-month bills is interesting as we get ready to close out the month. and you can see, bills have fallen but they haven't fallen nearly as fast as the long dated treasuries when you look at ten year minus three months, you see minus 19 minus 20 this chart starts in early september of last year when was about the last time we were at these current levels and if you consider that early this morning it looked like ten-year note yields were going to make a beeline for the 140 area but as you look at intra-day chart of tens it wasn't meant to be it was a false start everything is guns hot meaning either at or one bases point away from the lowest trades of the cycle and for long maturities the lowest trades ever let's go to six sessions back to last wednesday on 30-year bond yields yes, we moved a lot more aggressively last week this week we're kind of spending time in the low 180s, even high

170s but the point is it's mostly sideways action. the problem, sideways action at the lowest yields, highest prices ever. tyler, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much we will hear from president trump on the coronavirus tonight at 6:00 p.m. or there abouts he'll hold a news conference at the white house and eamon javers joins us now with more hi. >> yeah, tyler that's right i have been talking to a number of senior officials at the white house getting more detail about the president's frustration with that cdc briefing yesterday. you saw the stock sell off after stock market selloff after that briefing yesterday i'm told the president is particularly frustrated with dr. nancy messenier. it wasn't a matter if the virus comes to the united states but a question of when the virus comes. i'm told the president believes she should not have said that. and the president believes ultimately that it's okay for officials to be making emergency preparations but he doesn't necessarily want them making

emergency predictions along those lines. so, that's more insight into the president's thinking as we go into that briefing this afternoon or this evening at 6:00 p.m we saw dr. anthony fauch the top infectious disease expert on tv explaining the contradiction in terms and tone we saw yesterday between the white house officials who were saying, we've got this thing buttoned up and cdc officials who seem to be suggesting that americans should brace for some impact here here is what he had to say today. >> the cases we have are well-contained and well controlled when you talk about what the cdc was saying and i agree with them, that even though it's well contained now, what's going on in the rest of the world is making it look more and more like we will have something that either is or approaches a pandemic and if we do, we need to be prepared. >> reporter: so, tyler, the officials talking about preparations here and speaking of preparations we don't know

exactly where the president is going to do this briefing tonight or what he's going to say. we do expect at this point he will be taking some questions so we might have the opportunity to hear more from him later on this evening, tyler. >> he has a tough needle to thread there when your top infectious disease specialist says declaratively we're going to face something that either is or will approach a pandemic if the president doesn't somehow embrace that idea, it's going to be -- >> right. >> it will be troubling. >> reporter: yeah. look, this is a little bit like some of the difficulty that weather officials have had dealing with the white house in terms of predictions on hurricanes and where those hurricanes are going to go you know, think about this in two different ways right? there's the tornado warning analogy you want to tearfy people you're giving a tornado warning because you want them to go to the basement and get down there when the tornado is coming in in terms of virus, though, there are economic and market impacts to that that the president is very sensitive to. and the president does not want americans to be panicked about this, does not want them to change their behavior in a big way. and certainly doesn't want the

stock market to do what it did yesterday. so he's trying to thread that needle and you can imagine how difficult that makes life for all the folks at hhs and cdc. >> eamon javers thank you very much on the north lawn of the white house. stocks a half turn negative obviously this week on coronavirus fears. the session low for the dow was down about 190 points. we're now in the green for nasdaq still 114 points lower for the dow. it has shed basically 2,000 points this week alone. let's brings in charlie, vice chairman with aerial investments and oliver porsche, a chief market strategist and vice chairman with bruderman asset management welcome to both of you charlie, i note that you say don't forget the political ramifications of what's going on here if the economy turns down, which would be bad enough for the market, the chance of a sanders win will go up and the market will like that not very much either but my question for you is if the market turns down largely because of a coronavirus, will

voters blame president trump for that >> yeah, i think you're getting your cause and effect, at least i would say getting it backwards. it would be if people start behaving differently, they don't take trips, they don't go shopping to the mall, they stay at home, then you could have a recession and recession leads to higher unemployment and higher unemployment leads to donald trump not getting re-elected normally that wouldn't be the end of the world either but this happens to be the year in which we're talking about a socialist maybe being the beneficiary of that >> but my question for you, charlie, is i buy all of that, but is -- would the nature of a recession, which on its face would not be good for the incumbent, but would the nature of a recession caused by a virus over which the president has no control, would voters basically give him a pass on that? >> well, the betting line today says that the chance of bernie

sanders being president is all the way up to 33%. that's up from about 12% six weeks ago. so, all of these things are correlated this is my view of this. the market is relatively tough when it comes to thinking about the impact of viruses. the market knows that thousands of people die every year unfortunately from the flu the mortality rate on this have not been that bad. it's always tough to talk about this subject because you can sound insensitive. >> correct. >> but the facts are that a mortality rate of around 2% is probably not going to be devastating to the u.s. economy, but fear and change in behavior would be and that is why i think that frankly when i come on a show like this i want to convince people that there is nothing to panic about yet. i don't expect there to be anything to panic about. and that's probably the way the president feels. >> all right oliver, what is your view of what charlie has just been talking about, both the political ramifications of it,

the possibility that a sanders' victory has become more likely rather than less and that markets would not of a slowing >> especially when we're on programs like this trying to inform investors and inform the public is to project our own political beliefs what might happen with an economy that's part of what charlie has done here unfortunately. look, would the market -- let's have the primaries let's go ahead and have the election and see what happens. people -- a lot of people who didn't like trump predicted doom and gloom when he was elected. and here we are three years later in pretty good shape from an economic and market perspective. i think what you want to look at is the facts you want to look at data and to bob's point earlier, while i wouldn't use the term clueless, data is changing so

rapidly that that's what's causing the change in momentum in the market. you're up this morning because people felt like there was going to be a little bit more clarity and some additional data came out and things looked worse again. i think you have a long way to go before we get through that cycle. and to the point of you don't want to create fear. you don't want to create panic, absolutely correct, but these problems are potentially very serious. and you need to be aware of that. >> charlie, one thing i wanted to ask you about is bond yields, because absolutely this can be passing in terms of the impact for the stock market it recovers, it could be passing for its impact on the economy it recovers you know, maybe there are political consequences and so forth, but the level of 10 year yield is now about 1.31% and change and that just seems to be persistent so what do you think people should do about that is it a bad sign is it the new normal does it support the stock market here is it something to worry snabt

does it create distortions what do you think? >> it's a great barometer of fear when people are worried about overall risk they flock to treasury despite $22 trillion in federal deficit. so, i think 1.31% makes no sense for a 10-year. it is the lowest rate we have ever had going all the way back to the creation of federal debt. i think we're going to have inflation that will be more than 1.3% over the next ten years and so you'll end up with a negative real return so that number makes no sense to me i think it is much more likely to go up than down but it's clearly a gauge of fear >> oliver, should i be raising cash >> well, i think that if you have cash on hand you hold on to it i think patience is the name of game right now you know, there's a saying in car racing that says -- if you don't know where the car is going f you don't know what to do, both feet off. that means just take your foot off the brake. take your foot off the gas and

let the car do its natural thing. if you have a portfolio that's set up right now, that's what you should do. you should stay invested you don't want to sell you don't want to overreact to a short-term selloff at the end of the day, we have a 30% up year last year and we're down about 7% from the highs now. so, and we're barely in negative territory year to date i don't think it's anywhere near panic levels or something to be particularly worried about on the same token, given the uncertainty, you have cash on hand, you want to hold on it to. >> oliver, thank you, charlie, we thank you as well. >> thank you. coming up, a wild day for the market with stocks wiping out 460-point gain and china trying to get back to normal after a coronavirus shutdown reopening factories, resuming economic activity, is it working? we're going to dig into that story next. plus, we'll ask an economist how bad a hit to the u.s. and world economies could be stick with us on "weluh.por nc ♪

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all right. welcome back to "power lunch," ladies and gentlemen we are watching china trying to get back to normal, reopened factories and stores, but is it working? and how quickly. steve liesman has been looking under the radar at some indicators and it's not just big companies that are being hit in china, it's a lot of middle market and small companies, too. >> yeah. we're definitely hearing that but economists in the u.s. are

following a series of alternative realtime data trackers inside of china that are showing the country is not getting back to work as quickly as hoped traffic congestion in beijing is running 20 to 60% below 2019 averages by the way, we can get that in realtime this chart is a few hours old. it's a sign that economic activity is running well below coal consumption, not close to where it usually is, a very big deal on the country that gets 60% of its power from coal all leading to hopes that china would be getting baaing to work by the end of the month. j.b. morgan slashing earning looking for 4% contraction that compares with previous forecast of 1% growth quarter on quarter annualized it now sees a stronger bounce back in the second quarter up 15% compared to 9% rebound they wrote the pace of factory reopening has been slower than we anticipated the fundamental issue is the

policy dilemma between virus control and normalization of economic activity prolonged slump, well, that could mean the knock on effect to the u.s. economy could be deeper and longer at least in the first quarter, folks. >> well, now we're not pricing at 50/50 chance of one rate cut, pricing 50/50 chance cut of three rate cuts this year. >> just moved in a big way we have a chart. i want to tell people it's quite a bit higher and i have not had a chance to do -- oh, you fixed the april one. the april is correct 69% it's the other two that are likely much higher i'm not going to try to do the math on television right here, but i will tell you that kelly is almost certainly right that december, the third rate cut is now trading with a higher than 50% probability. here is the key. the march probably is only -- >> when is the march meeting. >> the march meeting is about 2.5 weeks. trading with a 39% probability of a rate cut. i think that's okay for the fed here what they don't want at the

moment is for the very next meeting to be priced as a cut. that's the one that might force their hand and say, well, we go into this meeting. then i have to talk. right now the fed has been we will see we're monitoring if there's a big change in the outlook, we'll change our plan to be on hold. but if you look at that chart, what it showed is that it's two meetings from now. it's the april meeting, that's where the market -- and if we get through this meeting and let's just say three weeks from now, we say this thing is not coming here. that will go back down and we'll have a meeting of the minds between the fed and the market right now they look to be off sides with each other, but that's not really the case if it's not the next meeting. >> all right got it, steve. thank you very much. appreciate it. with little to tell us just how much damage the coronavirus is doing around the world so far and how long it will last, economists are falling into two main camps those who feel a recession is inevitable and those who don't see it happening at least for now chief economist gus boucher at pnc financial sees slower growth

but nothing to signal a recession. he joins us now. are you expecting any rate cuts? >> not at this point, no i certainly don't expect to see the fed cut rates when they meet on march 18th. if this blows over f the economic impact is limited, then i think the fed can get away without cutting rates. but it depends on what happens in the data over the next month or two. >> bill lee, who is at milken now was at citi had a great idea that he mentioned which is there is something the fed can do. offer regulatory forbearance to small businesses in the case of defaults why not use a tool like this instead of this constant commentary about rate cuts. >> i think the fed is going to be looking at all of their options. we have seen long-term rates decline, that's providing some easing the fed can certainly look at things it can do from a regulatory front to provide relief from banks and small businesses they need to consider all of their options, but certainly rate cuts are the primary weapon

in the fed's tool kit and if the fed feels it's necessary then we'll see them later this year as of now, i don't see that happening yet. >> so, gus, how does the global economy avoid certainly the areas in europe that might be on the cusp of recession, some of the areas in asia like japan, how do they avoid tipping into recession if the world's second largest economy flat lines for at least the first quarter and maybe well into the second >> it's going to be difficult. and obviously we've already seen very aggressive monetary policy from the bank of japan and the european central bank. it's unclear how they can be much more aggressive than they have been. they may require fiscal stimulus, although that takes some time to ramp up it may be inevitable that we do see mild recessions in those countries. the question is it going to hit. consumers are in good shape. labor market is in good shape.

i think even if we see a mild recession overseas that doesn't necessarily imply a recession here in the united states. >> but it might imply a slow down here in the united states, would you go that far or not necessarily? >> oh, absolutely. i think we will see noticeably slower growth in the first half of this year we already have the hit from boeing ending production at least temporarily, the 737 max that's going to be a drag. i think the coronavirus will be a drag through the first half of this year. but i think given the solid fundamentals, i do expect that the u.s. economy will avoid a recession although we will see slower growth and slower job growth associated with that. >> gus, thanks for your time today. we appreciate it let's go over to get trading nation >> tyler, two travel stocks on watch as the coronavirus fears loom the largest online travel operator booking holdings and marriott the world's largest hotel chain reporting earns after the bell let's bring in craig johnson and

piper sandler. boris, both of these companies have significant exposure to china. which one would you rather own >> you know, right now you don't want to own either one of them it's really a case of which one would you own the least or which would be least worst this case it will probably be booking. even though they have very large exposure outside of the u.s. i do think marriott because it has 15, 20% exposure to asia could be more impacted and also because booking just doesn't have as much capital intensity as marriott. marital is very capital-light company. when off lot of empty hotel rooms there's fixed costs you can't give away. with booking, they may have more flexibility and also have other different products overall, though, i think they're both going to really be very negative on the call today and say they just don't have any visibility and going to warm it's not a situation you want to be long either one of those unless you're an long-term investor. >> estimates have been brought down, marriott down 16% so far

this year. is all the bad news priced in? >> you know, i don't think so. if you look at the chart of marriott, right back at a very key inflection report. failure to hold that leaves support at 1.18. failure to that leaves 100 it's pricing in at 8% move here in the earnings announcement and i would note that nine out of the last ten times you've had negative results and the average return after earnings results have been minus 1% also would note from a google search trend perspective looking at hotel prices, they're running below where they historically been in the month of february. so, at this point in time, that guidance is going to be really critical and i wouldn't want to try to get long the stock ahead of the earnings print. >> yeah. craig and boris, thank you for joining us and for more trading nation, head to our website or follow us on twitter @tradingnation. ahead on "power lunch," a

wild day for stocks. and crude is getting crushed, dropping today and now down nearly 20% this year that takes the energy stocks deeper into bear market territory. will the slide continue? plus, the battle of the billionaires at the heart of the debate, capitalism versus socialism and what a bernie sanders win would mean for the market. apple sitting in correction territory. down 10% from recent high as tim cook speaks at its shareholder meeting today. we have those details and more when "power lunch" returns >> announcer: and now the latest from trading nation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. some people refer to the vick's as the fear gauge i like to refer to the gauge of uncertainty. because while an elevated vics may imply the market is headed for big moves, those moves could be to the downside or the upside i'm randy frederick, and schwab is the better place for traders. shouldn't you pay less when you use less data?

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plus, get $300 off when you buy a new samsung galaxy s20 ultra. that's simple. easy. awesome. call, click or visit a store today. ♪ welcome back, everybody. i'm sue herrera with your cnbc news update at this hour new york city and seven states including washington and massachusetts losing an appeal that would have prevented the

trump administration from with holding funding from so-called sanctuaries for undocumented immigrants the judgment affects millions of dollars in law enforcement grants defense secretary mike es per seeing next year's defense budget increase falls short of the pentagon's needs as other agencies face sharp cuts but es per says important programs will still continue we're moving forward long overdue recapitalization with the b-21 stealth bomber the columbia class submarine and improved communication systems to name a few. carnival celebrations in brazil continuing at full speed even after the government identified its first case of the new coronavirus. thousands partied in the streets of rio de janeiro as health officials say their main concern is more people bringing the infection into that country. we will keep you posted on that. that's the news update this hour ty, back to you.

>> thank you very much, sue. let's take a look at where the markets stand on this topsy turvy day. right now the dow off its lows of the session, but nevertheless well off its highs of the session. now down about 90 points 85 at 26,997, remember a couple weeks ago we were on the cusp of 30,000 now we're back at 27 s&p 500 down about .1% but the nasdaq is in the green just by a little bit, 5th of a percent of 21 points. time now for power movers. smile direct club is losing a quarter of its value posted bigger than expected loss and missed on revenue and gave weaken than expected forecast. the stock went public at $28 a share. down 30% tjx is higher today after earnings and sales both topped estimates. tjx raised its dividend and adding to its stock buyback program. the stock is up more than 7% toll brothers missed on earnings

and revenue. the home builder says lower sales prices hurt its profit margins and had delays due to coronavirus. toll is down 13% finally check on bitcoin also down today as the stock market tries to rebound but bitcoin not getting much of a boost no matter what it is down 5%. the oil market is closing for the day and let's go to rahel solomon at the cnbc commodity desk. >> this is now the fourth day of losses for crude prices. take a look at international benchmark brent crude is down $1.53 settle close to $53.42 a barrel take a look at wti, you can see its down about 2.46%, still below the $50 a barrel level settling around 48.67 a barrel so one thing that's providing some support for prices, a much smaller than expected increase in inventories according to the eia, the agency saying today that for the week ending

february 21st, inventories increase 500,000 barrels the expectation guys had been 1.8 million barrels. tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much. crude oil down 20% in 2020, our next guest says there's more pain ahead just how low can oil go. let's bring in bob mcnally, founder and president of rapid ann energy group >> hi, tyler >> opec i guess meets next week. opec plus one. what do you expect them to do and can they arrest this slide by cutting production? >> yeah. they're going to have to react this is why you need a swing producer when you have a negative shock to demand like this the russians, your plus one, they're dragging their feet. they're not happy about it they just want to extend the current quotas president putin hasn't forgotten february of 2016, $26 a barrel he doesn't want to go the way of the soviet union which was crushed by an oil price collapse in the late 1980s.

we think putin will order the energy minister to probably go along with a cut the question, tyler, is will the opec plus cut be big enough given the demand collapse and the still strong production we're seeing we don't think so. so even with an opec plus cut of 600,000 barrels a day or maybe even less next week, we still think oil is headed down >> is there a point that you are looking for, bob, where there might be a sort of generational buying opportunity in oil stocks or the drillers, the explorers, whatever >> absolutely there is my prayer is lord, make me bullish but not yet. i think we are six to 12, maybe 18 months from one of the best buying opportunities in oil and gas that we've seen in a generation if not longer even before the coronavirus and as weakness we had we're dealing with now came into view, even before then, the drivers of the

boom phase started to appear last year. one of them is slowing shale shale is going to be exiting this year probably luckily -- lucky to get 300,000 barrels a day. it's slowing but the more important and the bigger surprise is going to be that this peak demand idea in transportation that we're going to decarbonize and get into much more efficient vehicles and electric vehicles at a pace that's going to crush oil demand and transportation is misguided. it's going to be late. demand is going to be much stronger than folks think later this decade. so, strong demand, ravaged inadequate supply, boom is going to follow bust and i think that's going to get going here probably from lower levels now with the coronavirus and the demand hit from lower levels but get going in the next year o two. >> and you will call kelly and me when that happens, right? >> you bet, after my mother, that's right >> one final question, bob as we see companies like jp morgan and black rock die vesting from coal, you know oil is probably going to be next what impact does that have

obviously you can divest from tobacco and still see good performance, but does that prevent a larger threat in >> it makes my boom even bigger. they're affecting the supply side they're raising the cost of capital. increasing legal and regulatory and reputational risk. we're going to get less investment consider this, the cop talks, the global climate change talks had to be moved because there was social unrest in chile because of a 4% subway price increase because of higher oil prices they had to move the climate change talks because of political unrest when they tried to increase energy prices. my point is this, they're hitting the supply side. we're going to get less investment, but they're not touching consumers sales in california down last year china, flattish. they'll be lucky to get higher this year than they were last year subsidies being removed. policies being weakened. we're going to have strong demand hit ravaged supply probably due to fact that boom will follow bust.

>> bob mcnally, thanks very much putting a stake in the ground. we appreciate it. >> you bet thanks. >> looking at shares of tesla after that discussion. the market volatility does persist as coronavirus fears shake up wall street the dow swung 650 points today is there more pain ahead let's ask chief market strategist with bell curve trading. bill, you look at the s&p so closely here after the price action lately, what do you see >> kelly i this has been an amazing couple day of days because you have this incredible convergence of technical and fundamental factors. on the technical side, the most important trend in the market is the rally off the march 2009 lows that has basically reached all its targets. i sat here in the same seat, march 22, 2019, with the s&p at 2800 and said, the s&p could make a move to 33, 3,400 the high has been 3393 and you had this massive liquidation at the same time, these long-term technical trends are

exhausting themselves on the fundamental side you have political unrest overseas in hong kong. you have political uncertainty here in the u.s. you've got the coronavirus you've got mayor economies decelerating so you have all these bearish, technical and fundamental factors coming together to mull the market right nowi'll tell you it's no over you're going to get rinsed again down to 3,000 in the s&p before we start to see any real support. >> okay. and bill, what do you look at to tell you whether the coast is clearing >> yeah. good question, kelly i thought about that coming in today. there's so many different factors out there. technical factors, fundamental factors. for the people watching this show, i think a simple straight-forward way is to look at the vics. is commonly referred to as the fear gauge if you look over the last year, basically one standard deviation of trading activity or bulk is

taking place between 12 and 20 now obviously spiked bo that on this selloff so if you're watching the show and thinking to yourself, when is it safe to get back in the market i would like to see the vics back below 20 for at least a week, that would tell me that given all these factors that the market at least on an aggregate basis is comfortable and we should get back to more normal trading patterns. >> we'll look for the vics to go below 20 and stay there. bill, thank you so much. >> my pleasure. a billionaire battle on cnbc this morning ciisting capitalism and soalm. i think they solved it we'll bring you the highlights supporting innovative companies that will shape tomorrow and building workforce development and tuition-free college programs to generate the talent companies need. with a $150 billion investment in state of the art, modern infrastructure, and a nation-leading commitment to low-cost clean energy,

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and get matched with a proven weight loss plan. find out which customized plan can make losing weight easier for you! myww join for free and get three months free! welcome back a billionaire battle on cnbc this morning squaring off our wealth editor robert frank is here to bring us the highlights. >> this was great television now last night's democratic debate which is not great television, billionaires were once again a target. >> the economy is doing really great for people like billionaires in the last three years, last three years, billionaires in

this country saw an $850 billion increase in their wealth but you know what, for the ordinary american, things are not so good. >> which takes us to this morning when we had two billionaires here on cnbc, tech investor palihapitya and cooperman squaring off whether billionaires deserve that criticism and how they should address inequality >> the constant attacking of wealthy people, the villainizing of the billionaire class, now, i luckily got into the billionaire class but i'm one of these guys i'm going to give it all away, i don't care much about money. okay i don't get it >> i think equally blessed as you. i'm in the same fortunate position you're in at the end of the day the worst thing that happens people name call us a little bit and call us billionaires and detached, that's not the worst thing in the world if it allows us to wake up to the reality that a lot of people haven't been able to participate -- >> now, cooperman went on to say the wealthy should pay more

taxes. he's willing to pay more taxes but rather than saying billionaires shouldn't exist as bernie sanders has done, he says politicians just need to change the tax code what was fascinating about this is the generational difference between how you view wealth. he is apologetic and admittedly privileged about his wealth. leon cooperman, grew up in a different time in america saying we should all celebrate success and when you demonize it it's anti-american. there's a really interesting generational difference. sanders is getting a lot of support from younger voters. >> i was more surprised that chamath, i expect him to espouse what he espoused, younger, different generation, privilege and tech but the fact he came out and railed against esg which we talked about fraud. that caught my attention i thought he and cooperman found something they agreed on there. >> yeah. probably he basically said it's all

marketing. but i think billionaires are an easy class to target in this election only 600 of them in the u.s. so if you anger all of them, you can still win an election. but it's interesting to hear billionaires themselves respond and then also respond so differently as they did. it really distilled this whole debate. >> robert, thank you very much robert frank. technology minted its share of billionaires, the best performing sector today but it is still down nearly 10% in one week is the tech wreck over as you see it is higher today by a third of a percent possibly global recession reeno ndhe stocks lower on the other hand? that's coming up next on "power lunch. mmm... good. so i've spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. we are so good. we built a guide that uses ibm watson... to help the blind. it is already working in cities like tokyo.

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today, despite this market, but it's sitting in correction territory after getting slammed with the rest of the stocks. the company is holding its annual shareholder meeting today and josh lipton is there for us. josh. >> so kelly, obviously for a lot of apple investors the coronavirus is front and center. the impact that it's had on apple's business, the way it's affected stores and factories. apple of course withdrawing original revenue guidance for the quarter because of the virus. but today there was not a single

question from shear holders about the virus. i caught up with one shareholder, he is simply willing to bet that the ultimate impact of the virus is short-term tim cook did briefly touch on it and say, listen, it is a challenge. the situation in his words is fairly dynamic we know in china 34 of had 42 stores have reopened, but with limited hours. the vote did go as planned the nominees to the board were approved the executive compensation was approved the shareholder proposals were not approved as the board had suggested. >> thank you very much josh lipton in california. let's look at apple and the rest of the tech trade. the only sector of tech in the green, but on pace for its worst week since december 2018 let's bring in a pair of apple shareholders let's bring in the portfolio manager of wedge wood partners and granite investment advisers.

welcome. david, let me begin with you how long have you held apple and how big of a portion is it >> we've owned it continuously since 2005 and it's our largest holding representing about 9% of our portfolio. >> have you or are you thinking about lightening up either in apple or other technology stocks that have been so hard hit, or would you be buying more >> we are making our wish list i think for us to make a meaningful scale-back of some of our tech-related holdings, we would have to have a pretty hard opinion on how bad this is going to be, the coronavirus and i'm very worried about it. but the decision to sell and get back in, your timing almost has to be perfect. but i will say mypartners back at the shop, we are currently working on our wish list and if things continue to get worse, we will -- hopefully we can improve the portfolio. >> and you just told us you run a low turnover portfolio, 25% or

so, which means your average holding period is four years. >> yeah. >> tim, i'm curious what you make of the coronavirus. and look, apple shares have more than doubled in just a year before this latest sell-off. so do you think ultimately the company can kind of shake this off and get its footing back >> yeah, i think that it's pretty easy to think that so far coronavirus is going to create a cyclical weakness in supply and perhaps demand but the demand comes back as soon as the coast is clear from the virus, should that be the outcome. and i'll echo the other sentiment, nobody knows what's going to happen with coronavirus, but apple is one of the better situated companies from a supply chain standpoint and demand standpoint. >> apple had an amazing quarter that they reported back in january. let's talk more broadly, if you wouldn't mind. and i'll go back to you, tim, as well, on how you're handicapping the possibility of a global recession and a recession that comes here, or are we at stall

speed in the economy >> i think there's maybe a bigger risk of a corporate earnings recession the setup for this couldn't have been worse we had this great year s&p 500 was at 18 times forward earnings january was a great month. apple is such a bell whether when they reported, momentum across the board when you look at estimates for those companies, s&p 500 companies that are sourcing revenues outside the united states, the expectation was 6.5%, 7% revenue growth in 2020. i think that's out the window. and i think this could take a long time to re-assert itself back to growth i think this is going to take longer than what we might hope. >> tim, not to ask you something from left field, but i was thinking about it when becky was sitting down with warren buffet earlier this week. do you think they would ever

look at buying the whole company? >> i think it would be hard to buy the whole company just because of the sheer size of it all. and it's unlikely for apple to ever want to sell pieces because they've been driving the ship all in the same direction. and i think that's a reasonably defensible group of products so i think it would be hard to see an acquisition but the other guest made a very good point that this is going to be a light earnings for a period of time, but not a secular change in the way we consume technology and the way we consume the services that these companies provide. >> so david, you said -- apple is at $292 your cost basis, you started getting in at 8? >> the first initial investment. >> you've done pretty well there. >> thank you. >> you're talking about you're making your wish list. i know you're not going to tell me what's on it, but hint. >> i don't even tell my wife that stuff. >> would you be adding in technology >> yes. >> but i look at what you have and you have tractor supply in

there. you've got other companies that are not -- you're not merely tech, you've got visa, which is a payments and technology company, but some other things. >> we'll invest in dynamic high profitable growth companies where we can as long as the valuation makes sense. >> thank you >> ahead we have more on what's been a wild week for stocks and here's one stock bucking the sell-off trend and don't forget you can always watch or lteisn to us live on the go on the cnbc app we'll be right back. ♪ ♪

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there was at least one stock bucking the sell-off trend today. >> yes, pelaton is up 13% since monday and almost 7% and on pace for its best day since december 9th, and one reason could be the coronavirus. in a note yesterday an analyst pointed out that with cases rising outside of china, more u.s. consumers may be more likely to avoid the gym and public places and order instead a pelaton bike we do want to mention that comcast is an investor in pelaton. you can see shares up about 6.79%. i'll send it back to you. >> whatever. that is really very funny. >> surprising, i know. >> it really is. that's fantastic thank you. let's talk about the dow, because so far this week it has shed about 2,000 points. right now where are we we're down another -- can you read that? >> 155. >> at 26900. just a few days ago we were

really within reach of 30,000 on the dow. so it has been quite a falloff. >> and in tandem with that, yields have been declining we just hit a fresh record low, 1.3% the strong economy doesn't make sense to charlie thanks for watching "power lunch," everyone. >> "closing bell" right now. >> afternoon welcome to the "closing bell," i'm wilfred frost at the stock exchange the stock down 9.5% since monday, energy once again the worst performing sector here on the s&p 500. coronavirus fears continue to spook the market, despite attempts to rally today we're just negative on the s&p 500. >> welcome, everyone i'm sarah eisen. stocks are racing after a new case of coronavirus in the united states. bond yields hitting new lows, and disney is the digest