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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  March 3, 2020 1:00pm-2:01pm EST

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i got it last thursday only a small size. i'm keeping a lot of dry powder. >> 2,900 on the s&p 500. it is a fat around number but that's where i'm going >> i would say you're wrong. >> 2902. >> let's leave 30th. an incredible day already continuing on the exchange with kelly. thank you, scott welcome to the exchange. i'm kelly evans. it is an his, to day as the federal reserve announces a half point rate cut and holds an emergency press conference to explain it this morning. it has changed tlirl as coronavirus spreads in the u.s. but they still ants fate return of solid growth. powell said he is prepared to use all tools at the fed's disposal and admitted the fed can't fix anything and said a rate cut should help
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>> we do recognize that a rate cut will not reduce the rate of inaffection or fix broken supply chain. we get that. we don't think we have all the answers. but we think it will provide a meaningful boost to the economy. it will support financial conditions which can weigh on activity and it will help boost household and business >> the rate cut didn't appear only the enough to boost market confidence it didn't do enough for the president who tweeted not long there after, the federal reserve is cutting but much further ease and most importantly come into whine other countries/competitors, we are not playing on a level field not fair to the usa. it is time for the federal reserve to lead. more easing and cutting. there have only been seven other emergency rate cuts since 1998 that includes during 2008 stock crash and great recession, the 2007 sub prime crisis before, that 9/11, and the tech bubble in 2001.
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let's begin now. with me now, art hogan, steve gloeson, barry glassman, the "wall street journal," rick is watching record lows new record lows in the ten-84. and bob, as i understand it, there must have been quite a hubbub this morning. >> you don't normally hear a lot of noise in the middle of the day. all of a sudden, the chatter, it was like a giant convention and people started yelling at each other. that doesn't happen here we're just off the lows. if you look at the dow industrials, you can see the first, up 700 points the market voted people liked getting ahead of the curve. then slowly within 15 minutes, it started moving down it may have been a waste of bullets. mabel overreacted. you can see the second one is leading here >> a couple of groups really like the news. home builders love it.
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even groups like home depot, they generally rose this news. most of the rest of the market was flattish oil for instance, exxonmobil no refraction the oil stocks still sitting at a low same with the banks. jpmorgan up for maybe five minutes and then back down again. none of the banks reacting either >> for five minutes, it pretty much sums it up. >> you say something that many, many people are saying our fed rate has a way to go here why not have a big fiscal stimulus package what do you make of this big announcement >> it can't hurt it won't be the solution for two reasons. number one, it is the supply side shock there is a ton of activity we'll lose because people don't want to leave their homes or travel the fed can't fix that but beyond that, there is the
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fact we are in this brave new world where single banks just don't have much ammo the you're penal central bank and the bank of japan are below zero there is nothing they can do the fed will be out of ammo. and with the long bond at 1%, taking to it zero. these the conditions that are tailor made for fiscal policies. it becomes more powerful at moments like this. >> we'll come back to this point. before we do now, that rates set at about 1%. that is a range. that means there are only four rate cuts left before we get to zero and it is really important to explain the market's reaction. if the fed wants to come without the shock and awe, we're getting ahead of this, the market was already about 75 points of basis cuts so they haven't gone all the way there. do they have to do more in. >> they might have to do more. i believe if you listen to the
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fedder chair powell carefully, there is an invitation to step many and help them out greg is right. i would put a little bit on greg he is absolutely correct it is the supply side now. but a supplied side could lead at the a demand side people don't leave their houses to go to work or don't have income, they may not be able to effect the demand they normally would. so in that sense, there could be justification for a rate cut that i think everybody would agree is not the most effective tool but it is perhaps one fool needs to be done here end route to bigger and better things. >> so let me bring knew on this reaction the dow is down about 500 points right now. why do you think that is what the president and everybody has been saying, they just didn't cut enough if they were going to do something that would have really shocked to market. you have to at least do more than that. >> it is hard to argue with what the president has been saying
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about monetary policy. he's been asking for rate cuts for a long period of time stoffel fact that it is coupled with an epidemic right now is probably incidental. i think steve brought this up a couple times this was pre announced we got this announcement on friday so we cut our losses in half it was part of and a good chunk of monday's reaction the shock and awe was diminished that this was a pre announced. >> so this is such a great thing to loosen financial conditions now they're tightening up again. so if we're to follow this line of thought, putting aside the question of whether this is the right way to respond, if you're the fed, what do you think they're likely to do given this market reaction? >> i think the fed has done the right thing by saying we can't do this alone. i think he's correct there is a whole host of things the federal government can do to make sure the small and medium business that's might be impaired for a short period of
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time get put into place. that needs happen rapidly. on top of making sure we're funding our infrastructure although things are more important. >> what about the people had say, we're already running a deficit. what can they really do? and any time i've brought up this point, they say congress would never pass it. i a hard time believing congress wouldn't pass a $1,000 check to american families. >> you hear this all the time. after 9/11 you heard that. in the end we did $40 billion in a matter of days after katrina, it was $100 billion. we're talking now, $7, $8 billion. that is peanuts. we have both the need and the ability to do way more than that we can target this really well elizabeth warren yesterday had a really good idea she pointed out there are millions of sector workers who don't get paid sick leave. they're cleaning our beds and handling our food. they can't keep their kids home from school because they can't look after them. give them emergency sick leave
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that puts money in their hands and it keeps them from going to work and spreading the disease so fiscal power has both the ability to act and it has the ability to be targeted in a way that policy cannot that will be significantly more confidence building and benefits than anything can be done on the monetary side. >> let me bring knew on the back of please reminds us of what we're talking about. it looked like we fell to a now record low would not.3% after the rate cut. i don't think that's what the fed wanted wouldn't they want the ten-year to go up >> i can't tell you what they want, kelly. because their actions don't make any essential to me. i'm not going to do that i think it is an absolute waste. we have one to 1.25 left i heard them say it can't hurt it most certainly can hurt
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negative rates every time, viewers, listeners, i'll tell you the facts. once it gets so close to zero and we really have something economically based to worry about, negative rates, there is no way they're not going to go there. no matter what they say. and they always hedge their bets so kit hurt? it absolutely can hurt and the other thing i have a real issue with, kelly, is all the ifs. if this happens, if that happens. when does government become the only answer to every question? i'll tell you where. in europe and points outside the u.s. which is why many of our ancestors came here. and at the end of the day, there's boat loads of agencies throughout the federal and local and municipal levels that were, according to our tax dollars spent, able to keel with these things so pass out moig before anybody makes requests none of this makes any sense to
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me on any level. as far as long term rates, yes, how can they not go down the whole world is panicked. other central banks are doing what the president wants not because they work but because they can't think of anything else to do. >> always eloquent we appreciate it let me turn to you for those watching and going to rick's point. what am i supposed to do i had someone say, a notice-year-old who said she depends on it for income >> when you ask most people what's going on in the market, they talk about the stock market the stock market soared this morning after the fed made its announcement then you wrote your piece, it wasn't shocked and wasn't awed so the market went down. and that's what they're talking about. the problem is, that is either temporary or a capital plos is not yet realized the bigger challenge here is safe yield for conservative investors and retirees i agree with rick.
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all of this. we're putting our homes on saving the u.s. economy based on lower interest rates at least so far. that's on the backs of retirees and conservative investors the stock market is down about 6% or so the s&p 500 is down 6.5% year to date the-year-old on two-month treasuries is down by 44%. so if you have cds or money market, and did the right thing, why you income is multiing and it is on the backs of retirees >> since i know you have to make these decisions every day, what other options are there for safe yield? what do you tell people? >> most people think in a binary fashion. if you don't own state stuff, you own stocks there are some bargains on stocks at least did i have depends should stay there and go higher. we're looking at just an inch higher, a little higher on the risk side. we're looking at short term bond
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funds. fidelity vanguard has some great funds. specifically one of the best areas over the next, let's say, two or three years, a category of short term high yield bonds they're really short term bonds. average maturity, a little over a year or so lower quality corporate. it is a fund that we use a bit expensive. there is a short term high yield etf that is pretty attractive. it has got some risk and it is correlated to the economy. but nowhere close to the volatility of stocks >> nowhere close to what you want a 90-year-old in necessarily. so thank you for sharing that it is a really interesting window and people don't have options. that's a lot of exposure to the business cycle talking about whether or not it is coming to an end. find word, let me circle back here as we continue to watch all of this maybe there is now going to be,
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maybe there's not enough of a ground swell of support. the s&p 500 hasn't just this bond yield to plunge what now >> i think it is important to remember the market is trying to calibrate in a linear fashion what the market will be. so this is probably not the end of point we'll probably test the lows again. the news will get worse while the market has gotten better so understand that the news is getting worse. the second thing is, to his point, one of the things i get very concerned about that 90-year-old and 80-year-old is that they'll move money into defenses and those are as expensive as they've ever been. so be careful saying i'm going into utilities >> it is not defensive just because we call it that. you have to look at the price. >> a lot of provocative thoughts thank you, everybody >> thank you coming up, we'll talk about the banks, one of the hardest hit markets.
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is the fed hurting the system more than helping it at this point? we'll ask. plus we'll talk exclusively to the founder of regeneron stay with us on the exchange when you look at the critical issues facing our world, what do you see? we see a billion more people breathing free. we see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception.
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welcome ban. markets are throwing a fit over the half point rate cut today. take a look at the ten-year yield. it hit the all time low. let me bring in michael schumaker. great to see you both. let me start with you. you said that 75 basis point rate cut is roughly a 12%. are we talking about something like a 12% eps hit from what we've just seen today? >> i would ay, kelly, that if the fed continues to cut rates as did it today, certainly earnings per share numbers for the banks will have to go down in our report we published on friday, we talked about a 75 basis cut over the course of 2020 the way we did our shock analysis, we took it all in in
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the first quarter. you're right earnings estimates were down 11% to 12% on a 75-basis cut in the first quarter. >> is that as bad as it gets is it just the one-time repricing whenter sheriffs have to fall some proportion of or does it continue to be a head wind for the banks >> it is a really good question. it is the under certainty that everybody has right now. will this lead the further rate cuts or could it lead the a further economic slowdown possibly, a recession sometime this year we don't believe so. so we think the stocks are overreacting it is the under certainty. we point out that after prior viruses that were spread out over the last five to ten years, we would point pout the ten-year government bond yield backs up pretty quickly once it is over so we would expect to it recover once this issue is behind us >> on that note, we bring in mr.
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schumaker. what do you make of this today in. >> it is interesting i agree with one of your prior guests who was telegraphed by the fed. the market had a decent sense it was coming we were a little surprise that had the fed waited a couple hours after the g-7 meeting but that is a fine point by june 30th, a very big move. very big dose to try to deal with this crisis and the virus we think that's forthcoming. >> so you're saying we're bat 1% on the rate. we cut that do half a percent. i think you heard rick san telli's point about that if that does happen, let me put it differently didn't the fed want by cutting rates to see the ten-year yielding up today? what does it tell that you the opposite has happened? >> a few things. number one, the fed would like to have a few of its colleague
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central banks come along the ucd, the bank of japan, the bank of canada meets tomorrow. it is likely to cut. we suspect there will be more easing measures over the next few weeks. so that's the first one. and with respect to traditional rate cuts, you have to consider, the market to the end of this year was implying fed funds would be about 55, 60 basis points around a half a point by the morning fed. so for the fed to deliver another 50, it wobble more or less in whine the margaret people thought, great, now i'll refinance. overlooking that it could have risen. will they get a tail wind? will they get help from the refinancing boom or other housing related it because of this >> absolutely.
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not only that but the engagement with investors leads to us believe the trading revenues for the likes of morgan stanley, city bank, it will all be higher refinancing will accelerate with rates being this low and that will help names like truist or a fifth third or a citizens financial. of course chase, jpmorgan are our biggest. i would point out, remember our banks get shocked. they go through stress test and that's a severe downturn they all pass with flying colors and they alsoer have the dividends wefl dividends of over 4% and that's attractive for names like key corps, truist again, fifth third they all have great dividend yields people can look at. >> we appreciate you both being
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here thank you. >> coming up, as coronavirus spreads, drug companies are racing to find kurz. regeneron is one of those. we'll have an exclusive interview ahead. plus, one of my next guests say the sell-offs shouldn't be a shocker. we're at session lows. we'll talk about why markets are reacting this way and what is happening to iesr nvtosites. don't go anywhere as we go to break.
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welcome back we're sit go at session lows today. down 644 points, the bottom tick so far we're just off that. the 2% drop for the dow. just to mention, the dow and s&p 500 a couple of round numbers we've been watching. 26,000, 3,000 holding in both cases so far it has been a wild session after the surprise half point rate cut this morning by the federal reserve. we were pos positive but we're down about 900 points since then the worst performers on the dow include american express, exxon, and the cruise shipments are continuing to take a hit n norwegian with the worst
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and hotels not spared. shares of hyatt are moving lower after the company with drew its previously announced 2020 outlook due to the coronavirus saying the financial impact is limited with the dow just under 5% and the home builders are the green spot they are jumping as rates continue to move lower lgi, lennar and pul are higher >> chuck schumer blasting donald trump for potential danger of the coronavirus outbreak >> we need the president and his team on level with the american people and tell the truth. more during a health crisis than ever before. our public health professionals must tell the president the facts. and the president and his team must tell the american public the facts. just the facts
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>> british prime minister boris johnson said keeping the company safe is the government's overriding priority. it released the coronavirus action plan including worst case scenario estimates british firms are being warned up to 20% of their work force could be forced to take time off. and poem francis testing negative for the coronavirus after he thought he was infected the vatican saying he is simply suffering from a regular cold. that's the news update back to you. >> the dow down 695 points the treasury yield on the ten-year we'll take a quick break coming up, the president has been criticized for saying a coronavirus vaccine will be coming soon. where do things really
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assistant? we'll ask the expert whose company has been leading the effort to find treatment leonard schliefer joins us next.
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welcome back we have moved lower in the decline. the dow hit 729. we're down about 630 so we are bouncing around quite a lot. it is back down 10% from the rate's highs whether this is the tail, the dog or who is wagging its tail, take a look at the ten-year yield which is falling as well we hit 102 we're watching it very, very closely. as the fed responds to the coronavirus outbreak with a rate cut, the medical world is working overtime to find a treatment. regeneron is one of those companies working on it. >> the company was one of ten at the white house yesterday to
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discuss a race for a vaccine or treatment for coronavirus. the time line for a vaccine, even as they're moving at record speed are still estimated to be at least a year. treatments may be faster and regeneron is saying it could be both protective and used to treat a vaccine. it develops an anti-border they gentleally engineered to have human immune systems they then expose the mice. they successfully used the same approach to develop a drug for ebola. regeneron laid out a time line they cited a goal of having hundreds of thousands of doses for human testing beginning in the late summer. joining to us discuss it, regeneron's founder and ceo, dr. schliefer. you greeted me with an elbow bump how did the president treat you? >> i said we should do a bump and we actually did a bump
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>> tell us about the tone from the administration, the president. what level of urgency were you sensing yesterday? >> no question that the entire administration was there the president, vice president, head of the cdc, the head of the fda and a litany of others they were all intensely focused on how quickly we could move forward. and i think what emerged was a three-part strategy. basically, we look at whatever is available now the anti-viral that exists and we try to throw it at this problem and hope that it works that's super optimistic that it will yield something but i'm hoping >> you're not serum optimistic >> i'm not super optimistic. it was tried with ebola and it didn't do that much. maybe the coronavirus is a little different but i certainly i am hopeful that it will work. >> what about your dmoim particular fighting that >> you said this began in janel.
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this actually began about 35 years ago -- >> a the short story >> our chief scientist and co-founder, 35 years ago, was a graduate student had this vision that could you make mice with a human immune system. so once you made bhis a human immune system, could you immunize those mice with whatever yhad way you wanted and then turn it into human anti-bodies to treat people. that's exactly what the team is able to do for ebola and we believe it is what can happen here >> so you think your approach can be more effective finding the treatment handle the standard >> i don't like to think of it as competing against others. we're competing against the virus. >> you're competing against time >> a lot at stake here do we cancel the olympics?
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t schools? could you come up with a treatment that you felt worked well enough to forestall that kind of massive public reaction? >> i home so our time line, we've showed to it people. we're committed to keep you updated. >> the technology, the seamless end to end technology is in place. we go go from immunization all the way to a giant manufacturer. that is all in place we started the immunization. we already have tubes with lots of anti-bodies in them over the course of the next weeks we'll screen them for the best couple that we think could blast this virus. then we're going to use our tricks to scale it up. and be making 200,000 prophylactics. how quickly that can be deployed
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will depend on the early data. some animal data what we will see in patients i think we'll work closely with dr. fauchi you could get some human data and then deploy these more broadly. >> exactly let's not, a lot of people would only be able to make a small amount they could use for human testing and then solve the scale problem. i think our team's approach has allowed us to say, we can do this in parallel let's start pouring out 200,000 doses of this stuff. hopefully it will work prophylactically starting in august in parallel, as soon as we get the green light that it looks good, we'll be able to deploy those large scale approaches
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there was some joking prawn the drug companies have too much money. >> right now it's not about money for us there are smaller companies and need real dollars. they don't have the dollars to do this. cash is not could not straining for us i should say this is an incredibly important moment for the country, for the world it is important that the pharmaceutical is that the biotechnology delivers we don't always do everything perfect. you can look at the polls. everybody hates us i home it will transform important people understanding that we need this incredible rich treasure of our biotechnology industry to be successful to solve these types of
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problems >> what kind of feedback are you getting? often you find investors are not so happy with getting involved because the payoff isn't there at the end >> we don't manage our business that way we try to do what's right. and our assumption as my dad's model always was, you want to do well, do good. we are trying to do well by doing good investors will be cared for. if you've been with us over the last decade, we were the seventh best performing stock. we home we can do that again our bottom line is focusing on getting people well. getting people's lives saved >> i want to ask to you address one question the affordability of these solutions. the company dropped out of
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developing that program. had secretary azar was asked if he could commit that this would affordable >> it doesn't do us any good if we want to save lives to make something that's not affordable. and we pride ourselves on making it affordable. there is only one, the government or if we do it individually, we're committed to making this affordable >> and you think your peers are as well. >> i think so. i think e in that room isn't doing this for the benefit of their purse. that's secondary they really want to be part of solution of what could be a catastrophic problem >> so you think august we could be seeing a treatment if this goes well. >> we will certainly have the material made that could be deployed and we have to do the testing. and i know the doctor was in that move and he's committed to move rapidly as soon as we get beta, we can do this. web, we got it through nih in
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the congo in a war zone where this approach led to an overwhelming efficacy that saved lives. literally. their ebola. >> ebola >> we appreciate very, very much, you joining us for all the work that you're doing. please keep us posted. god speed. >> coming up, president trump saying the fed emergency rate cut is too little too late one economist says it could be too much too soon. he will explain why next take another look at the ten-year yield it just touched the fresh record low. 1.005% legendary terrain in telluride,
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i can't believe it. that chad really was raised by wolves? which one is your mother? that's her right there. oh, gosh. no, i can't believe how easy it was to save hundreds of dollars on my car insurance with geico. it's really great. well, i'm just so glad to have met your beautiful family. and we better be sitting down now. believe it! geico could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. welcome back to the exchange the market reacting to the fed cut today. there is ten-year yield. what is that
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a thousandth would a fiscal stimulus package maybe be a better way to boost the yields is there any time president would try one? let me bring in rob shapiro. he has advised every democratic nominee for president cynic 1992 peter is here with me. the chief investment officer we watched the yield very closely. let's quickly start there. what are your thoughts >> it's real the person looking the buy a home look what they're doing for the bank stocks. we're damaging the profitability of the banking sector. one of the had transmissions of monetary policy is the banks to encourage them to lend while
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squeezing the market margins is not good for potential loan growth >> absolutely. they're saying there will be a reidentify bonanza >> that will be the one area that's profitable. the loan margin will get squeezed >> rick, watching to see if it happens today, or in the next ten minutes here >> well, i was just getting ready to take a picture. >> there it is i see had .9999. i think i'll send that picture mission accomplished to long it a below 1%. i want to go to rob. >> we're following the policies of bank of japan how did it work for them
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>> let me bring knew on that point. as you sit with all the appearance hoouf advising different presidents and so forth, what would you say about the president's call for the fed to do more here? is that the right channel? should he himself be coming out with fiscal stimulus what do you think? >> the thought is interest rate cuts don't cut it in this situation. interest rate cuts encourage people to invest and buy if they think things will get better they don't have that effect if you're in a downward spiral of expectations which is where we find ourselves now. so this will have no real effect on the overall economy >> what would you, today is, it happens to be super tuesday. let us not forget. we're getting very close by the end of the day to figuring out who the democratic nominee will be what should that personal's message be about race and the
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economy? >> i think the message is i can bring back stability and security to the u.s. economy the fact is the administration is very vulnerable on the coronavirus because they cut funding to the cdc, for nih, for who, and they eliminated the pandemic disease task force. well, that is going to come home to roost if in fact this pandemic becomes very serious, which it looks like it may very well be. >> what are your thoughts on how this plays politically let us not forget what happens with gdp growth from here, with interest rates, with all the rest what does this do to guarantee or not the president's re-election in the fall in. >> historically, we know the summer leading into the election, the state of the economy will be a huge part in who will get the election. >> what would you say to
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investors? we had this discussion earlier about this reach for yield and nowhere to go. yes, you're holding on to capital gains. that doesn't necessarily help people achieve what they're looking for. does it push everyone into the stock market they're not defensive. >> it is extraordinarily difficult. it is an impossible situation on how to safely make money and being in bonds stocks, gold and silver, very diversified it is the only way getting through this but it has been made more difficult from an investoring standpoint >> what do you think we keep fluctuating around we've been below 1%, above it, sitting right on it here >> my biggest issue. mabel we just need more fiscal stimulus part of reason you said it is because of .999. that's the biggest problem i see. there is some channel for a
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weaker u.s. post coronavirus at least temporarily this notion that we need fiscal stimulus because rates are going down the rest of the world is forcing it that pushes them down that's the biggest factor. it cut doesn't make any sense to me i'm not dismissing that we'll have a bit of a slush with regard to the domestic and global economy beyond that, we'll have really weak times to get back to normal >> we're not talking about the business cycle we're talking about a hit from a virus. right? if write a business, i wouldn't mind some help to make sure, if i can't make my rent payment because i'm chinese restaurant and no one is coming, or i'm a
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school and i'm not getting the hours, maybe we give people federally paid sick leave. are there tactical solutions so we don't take the hit unnecessarily? >> i don't want to sounds like mean spirited person when people or businesses need help, for the most part we have established ways for them to get it the last guest talking about all the things were cut. just because they named something the financial protection act doesn't mean it is really protecting you so with regard to how the politics messes all this up, at the end of the day, we have put the cart so far in front of the horse. it will be meeting us on the back side. >> we've got to break. we're at .had 989% it is the speed with which we've seen this move and all of this happening after the fed's cut. i don't think they wanted to see
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this kind of response? so they gave twous reasons easing financial conditions. but financial conditions don't ease if more aren't willing to take the risk. >> they're engender confidence in households and businesses. they scared everybody because this was a clear panic move. there's no confidence generated by what the fed did when they had a meeting two weeks and cut 50 basis points when you only have six rate cuts left to do. this scares everybody. >> rob, let me bring you back in with some thoughts you heard what rick said about your points earlier, but just on the pragmatic sluss we might hear >> fiscal stimulus takes about nine to 12 months to work its way through the economy. so while there can be some emergency help for people who are really hurt, this is not going to have a broad economic effect this year
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and you know, we are now coming to regret president trump's pressure on the federal reserve to cut rates three times last year because the fact is that took up a lot of the room that the fed had to try to support the economy through interest rate cuts. although in the end, interest rate cuts have very little effect on as dangerous and widespread a danger as a coronavirus pandemic >> yeah and just again watching the action on our screens here ten year yield has fallen pretty sharply today, peter so for those who think they should chase this move, what do they do and for those who think this is insane and makes no sense, is it telling us that a terrible economic event is coming or is it just an outsized
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market reaction? >> there is an hysteria derive frd this virus of course and in terms of stimulus and the fed and everything, the thing that will cure this is getting this virus contained. and whether it's during the summer or not, or whatever, that's the answer. that's the stimulus. >> let's go to the wide shot everyone's heads were nodding for a moment so everyone agree, we actually have to bingo, right, the one thing cure the markets would be to cure coronavirus. >> that's the answer >> we'll leave it there. gentlemen, thanks to all of you today. again with us on a pretty historic moment there for rates and the market rob, rick, peter, tune in to squawk "squawk alley" tomorrow first on cnbc interview with the managing director of the imf at 11:30 eastern time we've got a lot more on this historic move. ten-year yield, .984 we'll be right back. at emerson, when issues become inspiration,
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anywhere in the country. whew! call unitedhealthcare today and ask for your free decision guide. welcome back to the exchange we are at session lows in the stock market right now and all time lows on the ten year yield which just in the last ten minutes went below 1% for the first time ever. we had never gone before 1.3%
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before last week so a sharp downdraft here after an emergency rate cut. the dow is down 787 points. nasdaq and s&p are down a similar portion. my next guest says small investors can be well positioned amid this sell off bank of america, morgan stanley on its heels jpmorgan, citi and goldman down 3 to 4% right now, but if you can keep your cool, you could buy some bargains here at constitution institutional investors have bailed out of the market let's welcome in jason columnist at "the wall street journal. also, peter is back with us. jason, it's great to have you here on a day like this. you have been tweeting about some comparisons between now and 2008 there might be some market comparisons. i think they're differen economic events certainly. what's the intelligent vinvestor
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to do right now? >> i think we have to wait and let things settle out. right now, it's just kind of chaos out there. i think as a lot of your other guests have mentioned, might kind of calm what some are characterizing as panic, the fed may have actually created one u and it's at times like these that i think individual inv investors in particular should sort of wait until the desi settles. >> what about the investors that would those traditional bond stock market portfolio allocations. does ma make sense >> that's a very good question, kelly, and i think there's a long answer but the short answer is yes treasuries still maintain a low correlation to equities and we can see that on a day like today when stocks are down huge and investors and treasuries are doing very well. in the long run, some of that diversification benefit is likely to be mitigated but in
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the short run, which is when people really want to be diversified, it tends to work pretty well. >> mike, with your thoughts on the speed of this move lower in the ten year we've just seen, what do you think? zpl yeah, it's quite remark bable, kelly obviously i would vbts i said even last week there was a bit of a buying panic in treasuries and yesterday's equity rally, was the market kind of sniffing out that maybe it had reached a kcrescend crescendo? actually came back dramatically by the end of f the day. b obviously the message from the fed, whatever it was intended in part seems to have been look we're on a path maybe back towards zero on the short end of rates and there's just so little yield left in the world that effectively, they took the fed funds rate, one of the highest yields on the planet b, from one and a half down to one and it's almost as if it forced people down to the longer end i don't know if i'm going to ascribe a lot of particular inferences about what this means
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for the economy except that right now, it is hide and wait >> and one place it has an effect is on mortgages you were saying that people who own mortgage-backed security, now you've got a ton of prepayments. that might have to be replacede with treasury bonds. you think there might be a mechanical aspect. >> i think it's helping to exaggerate the higher price and lower yield. if i own a mortgage-backed security, i assume i'm going b to be losing mortgages through refinancing so in order to sustain my duration levels i'm buying longer term treasuries so, the highest prices go, drives more boying and buying begets buying. it gets yields going lower >> that's a great point about what might be happening behyban the scenes jason, what's your advice to investors? >> i think people should stay the course, kelly. if you have the ability to rebalance, buy a little more of what's gone down, maybe sell a little bit of what's gone up, that's probably prudent. but for most people, just
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sticking with it is probably the appropriate course of action here >> saying that as we watch the ten year note, yield, hit 0.962% thank you all. we'll see you again, sir peter, thank you for sticking around and with the dow down more than 800 points, that does it for the change today. over to tyler. >> thank you very much we start this hour with breaking news or maybe it is broken news. in part because of what's happening in the economy and the markets but also in light of the fact of what happened was about three hours ago. the federal reserve making an emergency 50 wbasis point or hal percentage point rate cut saying the coronavirus is an evolving risk to the economy but it is not exactly the shock and awe that the fed was looking for from a move we haven't seen since the financial crisis far from putting a floor under stocks, stocks seem to be falling through that floor take a look at the market. the dow giving back a big hunk of y

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