tv Closing Bell CNBC March 3, 2020 3:00pm-5:00pm EST
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year, so consider the fixed-income portion to be the stabilizing force. consider the stock or equity portion of the portfolio to be the driving of your income in the future. we have to leave it there. tim, thank you for your insights we appreciate it. thanks for watching "power lunch", everybody. "closing bell" starts right now. don't forget, this time yesterday, the dow rallied 700 points in the final hour of trade. we have about 59 minutes to go we'll see which direction we end up in. >> i'm wilfred frost, and we'll have a look at what's driving the action the fed announcing a 50-basis cut. that sent stocks soaring, but
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for only 15 minutes. since then stocks have moved sharply lower. the g7 proposed policies, but -- the ten-year breaking below 1% for the first time ever. darius adamczyk will join us in a bit. we have rick santelli here, steve liesman is covering the emergency fed cut. and meg tirrell has the latest on the coronavirus outbreak. i'll be watching the fallout for the banks.
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pete is joining us yesterday, today two very different days have you chanced what you've been doing >> have not. this is a classic buy the rumor/sell the news type of trade. it was tell graphed friday and over the weekend we're trading higher eventually. >> you still think we go long you do think the panic is overblown. i am in the life sciences. i know some of the things going on that are not well publicized, but they're out there. it's moore pernicious, and now it's on our shores, and that's the big concern. it is a virus that i do believe
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that at the end of this quarter, a few months, we'll be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and the markets will trade back higher. >> over to bob pisani. a flight to saved, we talked about what's going on here, but gold's big rally moving up two, three, four, 5%. a positive reaction, a little less enthusiastic than it was earlier in the day all of them are to the up side here what else can be done? a lot of people are talking about maybe infrastructure spending, some kind of fiscal stimulus you see modest moves up here all on the up side finally banks a miserable day here, concerns about lower loan activity as well guys, back to you.
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>> thanks so much for that then we found in the last 20 minutes a bit of a recovery. >> first of all definitely sticker shock, and this general sense that perhaps this is what the market was looking for from the fed, but the timing perhaps clumsy did we already price in the probable economic slowdown however, also yesterday's rally was a springloaded we were sitting here 24 hours ago ago, yeah, it's great, but you can't extrapolate that it's a bottom this is how it trades, you retest, chop around. i will say s&p sold off below 3,000. that dip was immediately bought. we have spent most of today within yesterday's way in a strange way this has not been an extraordinary day.
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>> a bit of a comeback. >> yields are up as well >> on a day that the fed made this extraordinary move to build confident in the market, did that make you think? >> the ten-year fell below 1% for the first time ever. >> high, wolf, yesterday look at an intraday of two-year. we're now at 71, down 19 basis points that's, what, 11 off the lows? it's low trade was 0.9, 90 basis points you could have traded it at 116
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to where it settled. briefly under 97, 96, 97, consider this -- eight sessions ago, we were this close to 100 it's been swift. i guess money has poured into treasuries today, but relative move in yield has been very pronounced. >> yes, but are yields relative to everybody else? it's also pronounced and i think the appetite for dollars will be steady, verysteady in the future i know the president and the administration, like a weaker dallas, but i think over time the dollar will be higher after this move is over. i think the default to the dollar index will crawl back once we get past this volatility.
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making some contacts it can also ease finish conditions the emergency rate is about a total surprise really tell graphs the cut that they at 10:00, remains strong in the face of these new riskses. they mentioned the communication of -- and fiscal authorities it seems strange that they didn't do any of after which was alluded to >> steve, why 10:00 a.m. anything to read into that
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plenty of time to get the decision out, wasn't it? >> i think the response is somewhat of a surprise, but i will say hold on tight, wilf i have seen fed action not really priced into the market. we'll see if it helps to put a bottom or maybe there's more to on to go i think the criticism would otherwise be louder. >> what about that it's using the ammunition to get ahead of it where we need more policy blitz, and can the fed get out of this and reverse this if it needs to if the virus proves to be
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temporary. there's no definitive aens to that those are worth while points all we know is there's been a lot of research and the modeling has been done when you have very few rate cuts to use, that you're close to the zero lower bound, it's better to use them earlier. in fact, you go back and say could the fed have done more yes, and done more earlier and maybe not had as bad of an outcome. so maybe that's motivating them. step up, and i think it's not crazy to think that more may be to come. >> i have to push back on you suggesting the cries would have been louder if they hadn't done anything acting out of the cycle of typical meetings and to the tune of 50 basis points was pretty wild, particularly following a
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day where markets had already recovered. i think some people do argue -- i don't know how much of a portion, but that they have lost credibility. , and this is something that they were sort of backing themselves into, acting this time as opposed to necessarily be the right move. >> except that you have to take into account the following actions friday at 2:30 the federal reserve chairman really put a floor on the market at 2:30 when he said the fell would use all available 2s yesterday imf/world bank with a joint statement, bank of japan, lagarde, and we learned the g7 was going to have this meeting,
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to do what it could to put a floor on the free fall. >> steve, thank you very much for the insight. let's get to mike for today's market dashboard in parts it's processing yesterday's pretty historic pop. to do that, po you it in longer-term cox, this is from the third quarter, 2016, i keep pointing to the january of 2018 pullback you saw a very, very quick rebound, just like we saw yesterday after a double-digit loss over two weeks. then you chopped around. every w start with a v, not every v turns into a w today we did give back some of it, but yesterday's lows, friday 'lows so far being respected would it be surprise figure we ended up in one of these boxes after going to a new high? not really, but, you know, it
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doesn't necessarily tell graph itself, but it's very common to have this extremely choppy agitation here is as look at the blend. and what happened in the days after you. this is your 4% move form the blue line is the average of all of these instance it is. what you see very frequently is chop chop chop, below the close of that 4% game. this is on average then it's just a bit of context, and what you see is relatively common >> what does that say to you
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>> as stomach churning as mike was pointing out, you want it to rally hard, but it never does. so the market will churn or chop when you think about communicating with old technology to execute orders now it's rapid fires the humans have a hard time keeping up let the news psyched go through its way. we did see much, much overwhelming
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the it was ahead of the curve to do that, the fed really got moving then boom, the fed did something aggressive it didn't do a namby-pamby cut it did an interim cut. what it's saying to the market, and to households it's going to try to get ahead of this that's really critical, so this is a positive development.
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so that's a real problem that does what who saw during the crisis is central banks did things in a coordinated fashion, the market took note with positive outcomes. to what extent had the fed made a decisionby backing themselve into a corn er and showing signs of stepping in when the market shows signs of needing it. i think they mae it look like they were reacting to the market
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or -- i think it was a problem and they were reacting to something that we didn't have in information about what was going to happen. so for me that was somewhat problem mattics. this sang that this could be really serious, that people are getting very nervous, people are cutting back the travel plans. my wife said we're not going on vacation on march 8th. so the fed understands that even before the data shows that there's a problem, this shock will affect the economy in a negative way in this case, i think the communication was spot on. >> with all that said, what does it do in practice?
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>> what really turns out is it'ssh that's really critical as well that's one thing we learned from the financial crisis, it doesn't work, it just sort of indicated that things were getting worse, not really doing their jobs. it's when you bring out the big baseball bat, get it out in front, and you don't wait to see a couple strikes hit you first, but actually hit the ball.
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>> i think the issue here is the market will do what it's going to do. realize just yesterday we had a huge increase in market prices in the stock market it could basically be a big hit tremendous uncertainty, people are holding back they don't want to spend they don't want to fly they could have closure of factories, so there's a lot of uncertainty right now. the real issue is not that the fed did this and the market didn't rise. if they hadn't provided the signal and hadn't done this, then we would see the market a hell of a lot low er.
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>> does it go out of the window, because of g7 meeting, and is th that. >> you have a remake to keep inflation under control. as soon as you know there's a problem, you're supposed to act. the independence means that you actually have to decide how to do it. that's what the fed is doing at this juncture. when they do the right thing, i think that's giving into political pressures doesn't u.s. are just doesn't make sense to me >> thank you for joining us. >> you're very welcome
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we will talk to gary stern about the rate cut, his take on the sell-off and whether this move was the right dahl. just under 40 minutes of trade stocks diving actually initially they popped, and then popped again and then they fell pretty hard we've got 29 out of the 30 dow stocks lower the only one that's higher is coca-cola. the staples, utilities, real estate do better, and that makes sense, right?
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new cases reports in georgia, new hampshire, northern. in washington, a number of cases, at a nursing facilities in a and residence and workers have found symptoms. new york's second case today is the first here of community transition there are continued questions, in senate testimony f. it was said that 3.5 billion masks would be needed. currently he said we only have 10% in the strategic national stockpile. the spread around the world continues with case numbers now topping 92,000 and more than 3100 dead. sara >> meg tirrell, thank you
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meteorology the hardest hit here >> they've been absolutely slammed today. it comes off the back of a massive rally, particularly after yesterday afternoon. but banks much more than most. the kbw the sector on all measures is very cheap barclays announced this morning before the sell-off showing that the banks are at 56 only jpmorgan of the big sentence is on double-digit price-to-earnings ratios as we speak. they are tracking yields so closely. they're off their lows
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clearly the low pes look attractive, provided the "e" part holds up ten days ago they didn't need to have guidance, a big shift, though, if the fed rates come down on their capital, even we've seen this before inned form of higher. >> there an algorithm that the rates will move and profits will be impacted by x >> in his big note this morning, he said this is more of an art than a science, because it's hard to tell -- bank of america
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has been hit, because it's got a high exposure to the consumer within that. much more price sensitiveto th rates moving. and whether they're going to be a business more price sensitive in their buying. some suggesting that massive run was down half a percent and closed up 4.5% an enormous swing, we don't know that, but either way, there's a lot of potential buyers to come in. >> are you a buyer >> the financials have always lagged the broader p.e >> the long-term average is 70%
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of the market. >> so we're selling off. i think it's more than just a rate story wilf, to your point on the buyback it should be noted that all public companies have certainly rules how much to buy back to your point, sara, there are some algos out there they do program those in and are the rates going to go down they a consumer-facing business. >> there's going to be a massive mortgage refinancing boom, but that's not as great for the banks as new mortgages that for
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this gigantic sort of earnings miss, hey of the recovery i think. >> it's not going to last forever. if you look at this in a reasonable sort of outlook, which of course is anybody's guess, but our perspective is a quarter or two in the end disney has good fundamentals i think you'll see it bounce back in credit card spending i think what you really want to look at as, in my view, a really horrible, as i said, sort of global earnings miss what does that normally look like maybe a company with a good basic earnings, has a problem, bumps down on the stock price because of some bad news, but then comes back on the long term that's why i think maybe you can
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put some cash to work, drifting into some of these names impacted. and now all of a sudden of ten-year treasury, you have some profit there that you can actually take and move into names that have traded down. at&t, for example, has a high dividend rate. in particular you can move out of allocated bond holdings that have actually rallied, take some of the profit. how much rallies are going to be ripping long term in a bond index when the ten-year treasury
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is under 1%? that's where rebalancing makes a lot of sense >> michael yoshikami, thank you for calling in. >> thank you. we'll have our "closing bell" closer, honeywell ceo darius adamczyk. we have cut our losses almost in half, still looking at more than a 1300-point swing high to low front and center, the federal reserve announcing a surprise interest rate cut designed to combat a shock from the coronavirus. the g7 pledging appropriate measures, but didn't spell out
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any specifics. the ten-year treasury yield breaking below 1% for the first time ever. let's get to bertha coombs for what's been moving over there. >> everything, for the most part moving total down side really very little place to high today. all the sectors are all moving lower. the biggest drag here is apple, that started the day off with that big positive following the fed decision, but just did not hold the within you bit of silver lines, we're not sealing the sell-off on as much volume a lot of that trend state at-home trade, ebay, the chinese gaming stock today as well leaders here in the nasdaq 100 back over to you bertha, thank you very much. we have under 30 minutes left to trade. >> not just botched yields
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themselves here's one way of visualizing it it's the s&p 500 compared to the tlt, so this is again a ratio type of relationship when this is going up as it was 2017 and 2018, stocks vastly outperforming bonds. what is interesting here is the level we have gotten to is looking like it's about as stretched to the down side as we've been on a short-term basis in the last 2, 2 1/2 years it's in danger of kind of going back to the post-election pop. the market said reflationary policies, that means buy stocks, sell bonds that seems to have been challenged now if you look at a momentum chart, it is nearly off the charts in terms of how strong they have been no matter what the instrument is, no matter of news flow, it
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seems it will exhaust itself soon >> but where there's still a leg lower, it wasn't like we were pricing in recession at that point, were we >> we were pricing in a stall ped, the oil crash. >> but aren't we questioning stall speed at the moment? >> what was really happening there is the stock market had a 15% correction, range-bound while bonds continued to rally at the time the ten-year made flu lows at the time of 0.15%. >> it feels like now we're -- >> that's right, but at the time cal low rates are good, again, you've heard me say it before. capital goes where capital gets rewarded if you're confident about what the assets are at this point in time for me that's another key pillar underneath my those, that
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capital will go into the market. >> if we can bring out an intraday chart, we're now down -- moments ago we were down 500, and now down almost 700 there's such volatility here. >> the volatility for the stuff we have gleaned is outsized. you typically don't see a vix rising at this level the intraday volatility, again, wilf is driven a low -- i don't envision a lot of long o -- selling into this market and trading intraday >> you have clients that are institutional had edge funds. >> that's right. >> what are they do? >> they're nibbling, picking they recognize and a lot of them believe we're vastly oversold, but they're not going to trade
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in this market they have a long return thesis, and family structures, and they're going to add to their positions. it will come back, we'll get clear of this over the next two quarters that's why i think it's a lot of the intraday maneuvering that is going on with how the markets are structured. >> we have 24 minutes after the -- a quick look at the sector heat map for you. real estate is only the sector in the green, near the top, of course, as sara said before, the defensive sectors, the bond yields have collapsed. technology the worst performer followed closely by financials two highs on the 52-week high list, netflix could trading at the highest level of clorox trading at all-time highs.
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how long is that going to last the federal everybody making an emergency 50-base setpoint rate cut, citing the coronavirus is an evolving risk, a move we haven't seen since the financial crisis joining us is the cofounder and kreismt off the cycle institute. a very good afternoon to you both is this the right call by the fed? >> probably not. i mean basically from a cyclical point of view, the singly cal resilience of the economy was, i think unbeknownst to most people pretty good before the virus hit. we were seeing up turns in our leading indicators for growth, and. >> so it's the right move not because it's you're worried it's
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not going to work, but because it wasn't needed >> i'm plenty worried it's not going to work, but did the economy need this right here right now? was there an existential threat to the economy well, i don't knows on the economy, the window of vulnerability, which is when a big shock -- was not open, okay? you were mentioning housing, for example. construction cycle upturn in residential housing. manufacturing was starting to see some up turn not only here, but abroad there was some resiliency here, cyclical resiliency that i don't think people understood. the setup for this was not that we were just cycling straight down and got hid
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there was some lift when we got hit by the virus the risk here, the cost of all of this, right because there's a cost to what's happening today. even powell says this isn't going to do noticing about the virus, right we just took a huge step toward the japan-ification, i call it, what do we do if it keeps going on a window of vulnerability can open up and we could find ourselves in a recessionary situation, and then i would love this half a point. i think that's a cost we did not have to take today. >> ian, take the other side. i disagree with pretty much all of that. apart from the fact that the economy was looking good, actually feeling reasonably bullish before the virus hit,
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but this changes absolutely everything the idea the fed should are -- until the recession was visibility doesn't make sense. the economy faces a gigantic exogenous shock. if we look at the extreme case, it could be calamitous it's the fear that engenders among people and businesses who stop spending. you can't wait until you see that stall before you act. i think markets have gotten to the point, if they haven't done something, or heaven forbid waited longer than that, and while it's true that every market move doesn't trigger a reaction, the market move on the scale that we would have seen if the fed hadn't acted would have been enough to push the economy
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into a very different place. this is a different planet we have shifted the paradigm, and the central bank has to respond. >> we were down 800 down, down about 3%, just wanted to follow up if it's so necessary to see the cut yeah, well, the rate of increase in italy may be started to level off, but there's no question that the italian economy is in a horrible place right now. monetary policies constrained by the membership of the single currency, they need to wait for the e counter. b to do something, but they also need fiscal policy to get moving as well. japan has been in a hole for a long time. their coronavirus situation is
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not nearly as bad as italy for italy, no question a horrible recession is almost certainly under way now, but the u.s. is in a different place we have policy freedom of maneuver, i'm expecting to see substantial fiscal act, there's a lot more fiscal action coming, no point waiting until this thing knocks you out, and then if it turns out that it's contained, and it turns out that the infection is not a catastrophe, the fed ultimately reverts -- but the danger of it all going horribly wrong is very real, and i think it would be an enormous mistake to not act now. >> we could debate this for the next 45 minutes, but they did
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it, surprise, here you go how does that change the trajectory of the economy even as the virus is starting to take hold the markets have the fed's number. they're pushing for another cut. i think we were talking about japan for the second japan is in theirs fifth recession since '08. plus a lot of fiscal stuff i would rather stay away from
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that so let 'remember where we are in the cycle we will see how this evolves the leading indicators are actually holding up a bit here >> the dow as well was down over 800 again, and lots of volatility, but staying within yesterday's range. >> so far it is it sat a couple. >> i do think that you have to just excuse yourself from trying to interpret every mover, except to say it's a twitchy, agitated market you're going to sell rallies if you're afraid this turns into
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a 20% decline, that's why you get this jumpiness back and forth. just tactically thinking what it's aware of is there's a lot it doesn't know. >> thank you both. coming up we're going to talk more about the sell-off with our "closing bell" closer say honeywell ceo, and why the company is making a being interesting push into quantum compu computing. dow is down 630 points keith, your last-chance trade? >> i'm going to recommend a long trade here it's got vastly overshareholder it's very economically
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sensitive. >> if you go back to my thesis, then we think the economy is still good we are now going into the "closing bell" market zone commercial-free coverage. >> mike santoli to break down, we've got did let's kick things off. jerome powell spoke earlier today about what prompted the rate cut what changed really was over the course of the last couple weeks, we've seen a broader spread to spread a big here in the united states what really matters is no the
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epidemiology, but the risk to the economy. we're above -- how important -- what a market, the equity market certainly would love to see it stabilize. you do think it's very interested immediately went to we probably will get some more i do think it's very -- this market is very susceptible to flipping right into the end of cycle psychology we were in last summer every shock or pressure point seems like it's starting that
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vigil. >> you know, we talk a lot about fear and panic yes, wet a pretty severe correction in a very short period of time, but i wonder if it's all rational repricing of earnings and the economic outlook, and the huge uncertainty it's created. >> we're going to start having that debate, was the middle of february 2020, my work tells me that we weren't overbought at that point in time i think it gave them the excuse. the intraday did extraordinary, where we got so oversold in a short amount of time and now we're vacillating back and
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forth. not a lot of people are taking shots. traders love volume and volatility this is a market made for them >> you would say one sixth of the value went away. does that make sense is that not enough are we going to overshoot to the down side? that to me is the kind of contrarian long-term view. >> or is it an economic outlook where economic risks have risen? >> we have to overprice the slowdown to get comfort. >> here's the one counterargument i would give you today. the home builders are still holding up, okay
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some of that has to do with rates, but if we truly thought that an economic recession was coming, they would be selling the home builders right now. home building is the center of most economic activities in this country, therefore they would be trading down and they're not at the movement we're down 2.5% with ten minutes into the session. we have breaking news on google. hey, dee. >> the impact on google's business first the company has halted all international travel for employees worldwide. google confirmed that an
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employees in the zurich office confirmed positive for the coronavirus. >> you have to wonder how all these cancellations will add up in terms of the hit to economic activity. >> i'm able to confirm that jpmorgan has had over 1,000 employees working from home today to test their sort of worst-case scenario plan clearly, as sara said, they start to add cremental to what - >> certainly incremental to what we knew -- this is where the 9/11 anom sort of fits there was a sense that corporate activities was coming to a standstill we really didn't know if it was going to pick up again. we didn't know if consumer behavior would enduringly change once you got an assurance,
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southwest airlines and marriott were up 60% once they bottomed after the massive sell-off at some point you get relief, we just don't know where we are in that process. >> i get your points, you know, they're holding up and all of that, but this is massively impact gdp it could hurt the momentum in the short term. >> again, the stretch -- i heard michael say it earlier the rubber band got stretched so far, it snapped back a bit yesterday, and i think that will continue, but the point is a good one we're just in the early stages i'm flying on thursday down to georgia, so i'll report how empty the airport is
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but, again, to michael's point i'm not trying to go along to get along. this will pass, and then companies' fundamentals will get back to where they are they built a nice franchise. >> once you get some critical mass of testing and we seem to have a handle on what that curve looks like on incidents, that's what the market would like to key in on. >> the fed's emergency rate cut is having an impact on the housing market diana, we were just pointing out the homebuilder stocks a pretty rare bright spot. >> very nice spot. mortgage rates donnell follow the fed funds rate, but they do loosely following the ten-year
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it was on pace for the best week out of correction territory. being led by names all in the green, along with the builders, the s&p real estate sector is up, commercial reits, so the builders are in a great spot when do we get that the fear playing into the market and overwhelms that low rate play. >> diandiana, thank you apple chips, due to the coronavirus outbreak, josh lipton has the story hey, josh. >> wilf, out of apple supply change, let's start with foxconn, the largest supplier of apple devices. four weeks from now it expects to fully meet demand, but this is a slow period of the year, so refers want to know what happens
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when it picks up gene muenster said to expect similar warnings from other suppliers, too he's watching qualcomm, skyworks and micron guys, back to you. >> josh, thank you so much mike, how have the chip stocks held up? >> in the official wave they were not much worse, but i think you're starting to see more values if you look at software and semis, it seems to be bleeding away. >> they have an outside move when it's a specific china risk. the worry has shifted. >> it is at the moment, but to mike ace point, what we're seeing and what we have heard
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some of the clients talk about, that's where they're going to raise cash that's what you're seeing in the chip stocks. that's why you're seeing them get hit a bit. hyatt, the hotel chain, pulling guidance for 2020. seema mody has the details. >> the company says the ability to assess the financial impact is becoming increasingly difficult. expedia scrapped its guidance two weeks ago. it comes as the u.s. travel association is forecasting the u.s. to see a 6% year over year drop over the next three months, it certainly doesn't bode well for the travel industry. vice president mike pence is set to meeting the cruise line ceos on saturday. wilf, certainly a vote of confidence for the struggling
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airline industry back to you. >> thanks very much. we are down 820 points or so on the dow with just over three minutes left mike, as always, give the internal. >> certainly negative, but not quite the washout levels obviously greater that had to 1, but we have seen days when it was 9 to 1 not that long ago so negative, but not unusual given the moves. he they were essential seen at very predictable that premium is coming out staples is holding up better because of its businesses right now. i want to look at schwab discount brokers live and die by short-term yields. down 9% today, essential back to
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last fall's lows. . the volume is huge. >> there have been huge volumes for, i guess about ten days in a row right now. there's a tremendous amount of liquidation and portfolio reeppsing going on right now clearly the velocity of moves both in stocks and bonds is shaking out a lot of activity. we are down. let's check in on bonds. rick santelli. >> you know, as intraday two-year right now was down as long a 68 basis points as it sits now, it's down 20 yesterday's settlement look at the intraday of tens yesterday's settlement was the low yield on tens today. 90 basis points. tens right now are down 16 at the worst day down 26 look at the february start you know in eight sessions we have given up over 2 1/2 cents
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close to the low of the year bertha, it seems the nasdaq was no happier with the 50 basis point gift >> it wasn't, rick for a mint it looked like the nasdaq had moved back into positive territory, giving all of that up this afternoon. they're still up for the week, but they are closing here near the lows of the session. the state adhome trade is doing pretty well. more companies are moving out of conferencing the president will be at the health information and management systems conference in orlando on monday. the dow has moved 1,000 points intraday four of the last six days the biggest ectors, financialing, tech, health care, all down 2%. jpmorgan, chase, it's pretty simple traders are simply saying what
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are we going to do here with the banks? the loan rates will not be as high interest rates are in a very difficult position down 7 march there's the closing bell we are not at the lows for the day, but not far off the dow jones industrial average closing down 790 points, s&p 500 down 2.8%. got afternoon. we're here with mike santoli. let's check in on how the market closed. not at the lows, but not too far off. the low came a couple hours ago down 996 we have been incredibly volatile, ending down about 3%
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a real estate only fractionally so at the bottom of the pile, energy communication services down, technology and if thises also down 3.8%. coming up our "closing bell" closer darius adamczyk will be with us, and talking about the n95 masks they made. plus the fed making a surprise announcement to cut interest rates gary stern tells us whether this was the right move, whether it will do anything to help joining us, jeffrey, chief global investment, tony dwyer is here, still with us keith bliss. first to you, mike, on what will be a historic day. we have the first surprise emergency rate cut from the fed since october 2008
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the dow sells off almost 800 points what does it all mean? >> obviously all those things are reactions to this shadowy things we're face, but i also think you can resort to how markets tend to metabolize uncertainly? it's kind of like this a massive drop into friday huge rally, it was impressive without necessarily being the whole story that the worst was over we game back two thirds of it. i think you have to put it in perspective. this is the sawtooth nerve-searing action you get in the midst of a correction.
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>> this is what happens when you get close to bottoms or tops you get a reflex rally. >> that was yesterday. what was today >> so now we go and test the low. the question, sara, is what's the difference between now and maybe the v-bottom we saw in early 2019 the difference is back in december 24th, 2019 you have three months to sell to get out. that was six days. so everybody is scared, but they didn't have time to do anything. now what happens is you churn through this rant yesterday. and it's all part of the bottoms out. >> the difference is coronavirus. >> but it can always be something. when human nature takes it, it typically pulls forward that kind of thing yesterday
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everybody was getting bullish again. >> if we haven't seen traditional managers take part, is there although big volume of selling to come? >> as sara says, we don't know, how can you make that assessments before the virus has made its full run. i've been below the streets in terms of my earnings number and above it in terms of valuation as we do are go downle again >> i want to get back in.
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>> >> it doesn't sound like you're ready. >> sijs show up that are based on human nature that always show up most of the activity is programmed until you get to the extreme this kind of volatility is one of those signs. so it's a time to look at what you want to get into the time to be defense is when you're parabolic in all the these cult stocks and there's no volatility it's not when you're having 1,000-point moves every day. >> has their fear still peaked >> a lot of them have been rebalancing. they were looking for a reason they keep rebalancing back into the bond market, a lot of them have also been looking at international equities
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the emerging marge held up a lot better many investors are underweight and it's performing well here. >> news to share with you in terms of fighting the coronavir coronavirus. the world bank announcing that it's fast-tracking funding for developing countries to deal with the vire. it says it will make available an initial package up to $12 billion to assist countries coping with this outbreak. that is designed to help member countries take effective action and responsibility to wherever they can we'll talk about it tomorrow with the imf managing director imf and the world bank, also two
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voices along with the finance minister they're going to put bailout and rescue packages in place >> it's important to see this coordinated effort, but this is financing, not a gift. $12 billion is not groundbreaking. >> but their whole mission is poverty, helping with -- >> i'm not criticizing i'm saying is it going to drastically -- if a country is facing a massive slowdown. >> central bank action isn't as well if you have people a who won't leave their house. >> it's not designed to. that's what i want to convey to the public the fed is not cutting rates to protect the economy today. it's creating an environment that is ripe to accelerate it offer of wherever low -- you
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can't cut rates and hope that somebody goes to the move. you create money so they go to the movies twice once they're not scared anymore. >> and also a show of support. >> what they do is go out as to the primary dealers, and they stuff a bunch of cash and hope they lend it out that's the response that's going on here. they're not trying to spur demand they're trying to backstop a lack of deep mand. that's whywe sold off. it's also important for the
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context, the fed was sort of following where the market led if you looked at every other yield in the world, it was say the fed funds rate is coming down, and probably by a lot. that's why -- >> so jeffrey, when you have your clients at schwab call you and say the ten-year below 1%, what do i do where does that leave me terms of sovereign forrile and where my allocation should be >> well, remember, it's still very important to have your portfolio manager he handle this remember a diverse. interrupting you there, jeffrey. let's listen to president trump making comments moments ago. >> maybe alex, you would like to start and we'll have the doctor say manage >> we had an incredible visit up at nih at the institute of
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allergy and infectious disease the president got to hear from actual bench scientists who, within three days, within three days, developed a potential vaccine for the novel coronavirus. they reported some really important news to the president, that yesterday the food & drug administration thorrized the entry that vaccine into phase one safety clinical trials. >> what we did is we had the opportunity to take the and show him the actual researchers doing the things we've been talking about. what they were referring to is that the actual scienci sciencist 'tises, mid levels, and explain to the president what i've actually been explaining to the press, but showed it on graphics, how after the virus was identified, the sequence was taken and put into
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this platform call emergency rna. literally within a period of a couple days, we had -- and now as i said we're going into a face one trial about three months from that day, we're probably a month or so -- i don't want to over-promise i had a month and a half the other day. and then very soon we'll be sticking the first person with the vaccine. but i want to caution everybody, that is only the first stage of the development of the vaccine we emphasize to the president since we'll be giving the vaccine to normal healthy people, that safety is very important, and you really need to know that it actually works that next phase is a face two trial. we're not going to be able to start that for at least another three or four months after we go in so the whole process is going to take a year, a year and a half
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threat. >> do you want to talk about therapeutics >> the other interesting things we explained to the president and the secretary is that the difference between testing a vaccine and testing therapy are almost qualitatively different with the therapy you're going to give it to someone who is already ill, and you compare it to standard of care. so within a reasonable period of time, you're going to know if it works or not right now, as of like today, there are two large trials going on in china that are compares one of the drugs, and there are several, with standard of care alone. when we get those results, which likely will be several months. you'll have to accumulate hundreds of patients, we have our own trial right now in the understandings, and some of the people at the university of nebraska, who are infected and
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put there. [ inaudible question ] >> i am not saying that we'll have a drug to treat people. you have to accumulate enough patients, when they get too 400 patients in each trial, that may take three months, may take five months when the trial is over and they have evaluate the data if the drug works, you'll be able to
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apply it [ inaudible question ] >> i haven't seen it i'm focused on this. the country is in great shape. the market is great shape. i'm focused on this. >> reporter: do you want tax cuts in addition to the fed acted? you have suggested you also want -- >> i like middle-income tax cuts. >> reporter: this year >> if the democrats would approve it, i would go look with it. >> reporter: a payroll tax >> a payroll tax if they would approve it, i would do it. >> reporter: spring break is coming around the corner should americans be concerned? for example, would you let your son go to disney >> i think we have a lot of great place to say travel to right in the united states we have a lot of great places we can travel to.
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>> how many cases we actually have right now we can only have confirmed cases. we don't estimate other than the 60 cases we have here that are confirmed as well as the 48 cases that we have that came from our repatriation activities. >> we're very careful to not try to extrapolate or predict with an unknown virus here in the united states. [ inaudible question ] >> it's up to them hey, let them stay in the united states if they don't travel, if they stay here, that's not a bad thing for us i've been saying for a long time people should do that. [ inaudible >> no, i think they should do
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more i think they hinted they're not going to do much more, and that's unfortunate he gave a very bad signal, in my opinion. just outside the white house, president trump flanked by two keep members of his coronavirus tax force, secretary azar, and dr. fauci, director at the nih, talking about the keep seen that one of the vaccines is heading toward clinical trials, they are testing therapies, and the president was asked about the market, saying i wasn't watching, i was focussed on this, but the country is in great shape. he even talked about potential a tax cut, something he's putting the onus on democrats to continue to push
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eamon javers is there outside the white house. >> reporter: always hard to hear things at the end, but i asked about the market sell-off and the fed rate cut from this morning. the president said he thought it was a mistake for the fed not to signal they're going to continue to cut he thought that was a bad signal to send. i also asked about the deciding of google to cancel a big conference and asked if companies are cancelling travels are doing the right thing, and he said he wants companies to host their events in the united states but he didn't address the question of travel within the he doesn't want to suggest that all activity should be suddening down right now he does want to signal to americans. he was out at nih getting a
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briefing from stop scientists there. he wants to signal that there is some command and control here over the scale of this problem here at the process. eamon, as always, thank for you that also stress there that dr. fauci said the wouldn't be usable for 12 to 18 months. the markets sold off sharply today, in part baas rates declined and the bank stocks suffered proportionally jason a wild ride as of late how about the banks there? >> historically closer to 75%, and maybe earnings are risk. so we turn to dividend yield dividend yield for the group over 3.5%, you know, that's again a ten-year treasury of less than 1% so value wragge relative to
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history are certainly attractive >> jason, we spoke earlier in the slow that even though yields have collapsed significantly, they didn't need to down grade, does the 50-basis point cut change that? certainly today's fed cut will have as advers. >> and jason, over the last five years or so, you and your peers
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post-recession trade our game plan was you get this multiweek rally. when you test that low, what you want to look for is the yield curve steepening so it's almost like a bull and bear steepener basically it's good for the b k bankle those are the areas -- which isn't that far away. we're out of time. thank you for the discussion tony, jeff, keith and jason, thank you. the software industrial giant announcing today it reached a breakthrough in quantum compu
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computing. we'll release what the -- joining us now is our closer of the day. thank you for joining us, darius we want to take quantum computing, but because we had another 800-point sell-off, extraordinary move, you've got such a good real-time indication of what activity looks like around the world what are you seeing? >> yeah, thanks for having me on, sara, i think overall think are's -- obviously china has been a bit soft for you year to day. overall u.s. has been generally steady, so i think the market is reacting in a fairly dramatic way, but we don't thinkthere's
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anything structural in the long term though the q1 and q2 could be impacted to some stephen, we think 2020 will be a strong year for us >> have you dealt short-term direct impacts >> yeah, we've been getting ready for that impact in china we actually have 20 facilities in china we had all by four operational so for us, we've been prepared and our supply-chain impact is relatively muted we're a bit more concerned about the softening of the economies, particularly in china, but from a supply chain perspective we reacted wet. probably a concern is the continued supply chain downstream, but so far so good
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so you make some of these protective masks do you have any? >> no. we're operating, those facilities -- we basically have three facilities that make masks. we're operating those plants 24 by 7 we're expanding our capacity by the end of the month it's a significant, and right now it's booming we're trying to bring capacity online as quickly as we possibly can. right now we can't fulfill the demand we have >> governments in particular, coring to meg tirrell, we need 3.5 billion n did the 95 -- or we have 10% of that in the stock does that pile, 35 million what do we do about that >> you know, we're trying to
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literally expand our capacity as quickly as we can. we've made some investments already. we're looking to make even more. we're going to double or capacity in the next 60 days that's the good news, but that's not nearly enough to satisfy the current demand. >> darius, let's talk about the major announcement today, the new quantum competing platform >> the way we measure quantum computing power is through effective cubits we'll have six effective cubits, which will make our compute irthe most powerful. we're very proud to have jpmorgan as one of our flagship customers. that was an nounced today as so
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we're building an infrastructure to be very, very successful in this important new initiative for honeywell. >> what is the practical application of quantum computing? >> there's really various ones anything in material science, road optimization, financial software, anything that overwhelms a classic computer is a perfect application for a quantum computer, given the power that's available we're using it internally for some of our material science research for our uop business, so the possibilities are endless. it will open up whole new areas of research and dramatic reduction in research times to discover new molecules or optimize some routes for travel. >> we don't typically think of you. does this now mean you will be competing directly the
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microsoft, googles, ibms of the world? >> i think it's a shame that people don't thing of us as a technology company that's what we are, but nevertheless, there's going to be competenty in quantum we very good about our offering. we feel we're ahead. this is going to be a large marketplace that will eases involved over the next two, three, four years. we're a technology oriented company that will compete in some of the latest and agreeder february knowledges. whether it's quantum computing or softway, that's the future of honeywell. >> is there a benefit in industrial activity? >> absolutely. i think it's a bit too early to tell we literally had our very first
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customer starting work right w now. a lot of the benefit is still yet to be discovered the kind of computing power that our quantum computer offers is something to be utilized by both consumers and industrial applications those possibilities are literally endless right now. >> darius, just a final word on the broader landscapes industrials like yours are getting punished it sounds like what you're saying is you think the market is get too worried about it? >> yeah, if the market is reconflictive of the long-term performance of the company, i don't have any concern whatsoever i don't think there's something that's structurally damages.
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could there be an economy impact for you that's a quarter or two along? perhaps. we think this is a temporary transitory issue that's going to get resolved i think the governments are reacting to it aggressively. we saw that in china we see it in some of the other plays in the world particularly with the warm weather coming, we think this is a temporary issue. we knew on the supply chain how it would hit us. have you had to cancel a lot of employee travel or meetings, anything like that >> obviously we have canceled a lot of to some of the areas that are highly affected. we haven't had brought level cancellations across the board in the u.s., we think that travel is yes, ma'amly safe.
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to some of the places in asia and europe, it's also safe, but some of the places like china, obviously, northern italy, in other places, we restricted travel we just want to be smart about it and continue to monitor the situation. we have an every morning meeting on the situation and how it's changing we're ready to change should it become much more. it was a wild day. bob pisani, to break it all down for us >> if you take a look here, down 1,000 points from here to there? it was a gentle takedown of the market, down 2% to 3%. look at your sectors, your tech, your health care
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it's all down 2% to 3%. it's impossible to trach for professional traders, but they all say i'm going to degross, take my exposure down. we don't know. the big question, when do we get the rebound? that's what the bulls are trying to say others are saying if we're into 2021, let's degross and move back into a defensive crouch we can't get the answers now, and that's why we have the confusion. guys, back to you. we've got earnings out nordstrom, courtney has the numbers. >> we're going to start with
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nordstrom, putting out adjusted earnings with a 19 cent charge it's a miss of 1.42. the street had been looking for 1.47 revenues also lighter than estimates. net sales of the full line rack stores both higher by 1% and is.8%. digital sales up 9%. they now make up 39% of total sales. the full-year earnings guidance is mostly below estimates. we should also note some changes to the leadership and board structure at nordstrom eric nordstrom is now the sole ceo. pete nordstrom is the president and chief brand officer. two board members are no longer seeking reeaks elects. they'll reduce the number of boards to ten. you can see shares are down here more than 8.5% after results
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i'm going to move us through and get to a couple others ross stores is next. they've been particularly strong these results are better than expects earnings of 1.28 on revenues of 4.41 billion the street was looking for -- strong comps up 4%, the street was looking for those to increase, but to increase 2.7% the ceo does call out at fiercely competitive holiday season and points to the late first quarter guidance basically says, look, we'll be somewhat cautious. i do note the coronavirus outbreak is not really indicated in this guidance, because it is an evolving situation. shares of ross are down 4%. thank you, courtney. josh lipton has earnings on hp. >> eps at 44 cents, that's in line with expectations
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revenue is light, though they do, wilf, maintain that guidance for the year. i did have a chance to catch up with the ceo he did not feel confident given guidance for q2 at this time, just too many unknown factors. as far as the coronavirus impact, he would expect to see short-term impact on demand in community. and that outbreak is certainly impacting the supply chain he is leverages his global network. he's managing demand but it does remain -- i asked what's the timeline to get the supply chain back in full effect. >> he said around four weeks even then, it probably won't by perfect. >> that's a long time, four to eight week.
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meg tirrell has the latest on -- >> now tops 93,000 saying 80% of new cases outside china are from just three countries dish korea, iran and italy. the president has declared war on the virus and called for an urgent solution. south korea saying it screened more than 100,000 people, through at drive-thru testing site death toll is only 28. in italy the death toll jumping to 79 today, an increase of 27 in one day out of 2500 infections experts caution that earlier in outbreaks the numbers are biased toward more severe case. the pope, who had been ailing, is said to have the common cold. finally here case counts are
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rising, in king county and washington, bringing the toll in the u.s. to nine. >> meg, thank you very much for updating us on those numbers let's switch back to the marketses mike >> there's a slippery slope in the volatility market, the actuality market for volume activity it happens sometimes when the market in general is under some stress it's the curve defined by vix futures, so futures that bay off based on the level of the volume tilts index in the future. this is march. normally if the market is in a calm state this is sloping upward, as the future is inherently more uncertainly -- the near futures a little more certain than the distant future, so you pay more for protection the vix itself is up around here it's been dragging the near-term futures up
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this is an upsidedowns situation, where it says market players are braced for additional stormy weather in the near term. at some point it reaches a bit of a peak crescendo level, sloping upward, and that often is the all clear one thing to know is the exception to the downward slope is out around the election we still have this bump in the futures demand, protection against volatility, ripe for election. >> it's super tuesday, by the way. >> we've hardly talked about it. >> we're going to talk about it in a minute. u.s. ten-year yield falling below 1% today this for it is first time ever, as the fed cuts interest rates in a surprise move this morning. jay powell addressing whether that could mean more coordinated central bank action. >> i've been in contact with leaders around the world the central banks are doing what
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makes sense, but we're all talking to each other on an ongoing basis. to carry forward and try to achieve the mandates, and we're never going to consider any political considerations whatsoever we will not do that, and it's very important that the public understand that. joining us is gary stern, minneapolis president. new deja vu today? >> well, to some extent sure, because you think back at the financial crisis and the great recession of 2007 through 2009, and 2 rings some bells, as well as the collapse of the equity market in 1987, but this is different in a number of did
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immen immenidi i dimensions >> do you field like the fed chair and the fed itself has started to show tendencies of caving to short-term market moves rather than long-term market fundamentals? >> not at all. i think if you reek flect on this there's a couple important things to bar in mind. this is a true shock, a true shock in the sense it want anticipated. nothing was priced in because it wasn't anticipated this is a true shock it's obviously a significant negative shock both from the supply side, but with several orders and knock-on effects. the other important feature to bear in mind here is that
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uncertainty is very, very high it's very high, because we don't know very much at this point about the severity of the virus, how rapidly and fully it will be transmitted. nor do we know much about how fatal it's likely to be. so, so far the numbers to me at least aren't that scary, but uncertainty is very high which it's as high as it is in this environment, you can expect markets to perform poorly, and the economy will be hit and policymakers should respond. >> ultimately, gary, what would be the impact of today's mo? >> today's move in my judgment is designed to do a couple things first of all to try to mitigate to some second the second order knock-off effects of demand.
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if you think about what's happened obviously the virus originating in china, disruption supply chains, sdrumts protection, and that's the first effect. the second effect is, as people kurt vail travel, as they decide not to go to events where there are large numbers of people, whether they're concerts, sporting events. if they choose to curtail eating out in restaurants, so forth, those kind of demand effects are real as well i think the fed's action is designed to mitigate those knock-on events to the extend possible we shouldn't kid ourselves as there's going to be some miraculous response, but it should on the margin help. what would also help would be a reduction in uncertainty, but that's going to take time. >> gary stern, thank for you
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weighs in today. >> you're welcome. well, it is super tuesday. states are voting and investor are watching closely who will it be sanders or biden kayla tausche has more >> sara, it's a watershed moment it seems so many dramatic developments over just the last week more than 1300 delegates, and however they shake out is going to determine thefuture o this race. right now senator bernie sanders has just a seven-delegate lead on the former vice president joe biden. elizabeth warren has eight delegates total. bloomberg has none, but he's making his first bid for them today. he said earlier today in florida, he does not believe it would be winner takes all. >> you don't have to win states. you have to win delegates. what happens here is nobody gets a majority, at best somebody will have a plurality, and then
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you go to a convention and you see what happens at the convention. >> here in california, sanders has maintained a sizable lead, even with biden surging in recent days and closing in on that lead. even despite the anti-corruption rhetoric that bernie sanders has become infamous for, here in california, he is getting the most money of any candidates from the tech industry's rank-and-file. he's been proposing to break these companies up and they're still donating in droves to their campaign, all of that data from the center for politics biden is hoping he can chip away at sanders' lead so he doesn't run away with the gold mine of delegates that california has to offer. guys kayla, thank you so much for tha
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that very good afternoon to you both ed, i'll start with you. do you think this bounce is enough to get him the plufrlity that michael bloomberg alluded to >> i'm here at the raymond james annual conference. we've had over 1,000 investors and management companies gathered in olympic. every one i bump into asks me that question. i think a lot of conversation early this morning was the rally we saw yes was a market expect ace that the coalescing could be enough to put him over the top ultimately if biden is not able to kind of get that momentum to continue, and if bloomberg or anyone else who got the benefit
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of any early voting is ability to keep those levels down, sanders is on his way to pick up a number of those 415 delegates and could get a need lead. so that is the debate we've been seeing here. >> they're also watching the individual movers, like insurance companies, janet if you look sector by sector you can see the policy divide. so take health care, what would you tell investors to do with those stocks >> yeah, definitely. i mean, we have seen usually elections start to price in when it's in the general election phase, not during the primary. because we're sealing a big divergence, you're starting to see big moves in policy possibilities that could happen.
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and so, you know, even yesterday, as amy klobuchar was announcing he would get out of the presidential race, you'll see him -- and so we have actually built a basket of stocks that's tied to a bernie sanders win or more moderate democrat win so you can see if biden does better tonight that is most people are expecting you could see moves in managed care stocks, and in banks, in other sectors tied to a more moderate win. >> stepping away from health care, what was the other key sectors that could see big swings based on this result? >> yeah, tech is on the top of the list, financials, energy i do think for the most part the market has trading as it relates to coronavirus as that has dominated the news, the thinking had gone from trump was kind of the shoo-in for
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reelection, just having some of those concerns, so i think coin virus is the thing that's driving it, but if it's a bernie sanders victory, you could see acceleration of weakness on the most regulated names anything that could benefit from a housing or student loan reeve those are things you could see positive reaction even if a sanders victory occurs. i guess all of this matters what congress looks like which houses -- we have to leave it there thank you both for joining us. up next, warninger media's ceo drsi tadesnghe coronavirus in a rare interview. that's next. hello, i saw you move in, and i wanted to welcome you to the neighborhood with some homemade biscuits! >>oh, that's so nice! and a little tip, geico could help you save on homeowners insurance. >>hmm!
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doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacist-recommendeding? saving on homeowners and condo insurance can be. memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. warner media ceo and at&t c.o.o. john stankey sat down with jewel where a boorstin julia joins us with clips from the interview. hey, jum julia. >> john stankey telling me the company at&t and warner media are well positioned for the coronvirus and market fluctuations. >> that would be a good thing if they spent more time at home watching content that's not all bad but i think we're in good shape. i'm optimistic the united states in particular will get out in front of this and i think some of the responsible moves that
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you see businesses make already trying to maybe keep people a bit closer to home and be out a bit less, maybe that helps in maintaining and containing it. >> with the launch of hbo max coming up in may, stankey says that will be different from the range of other options, including peacock starting the rollout next month, saying the week's launch of at&t streaming tv bundles will draw consumers away from direct tv. here is what he said when i asked if at&t tv was part of the plan to ultimately end up selling direct tv to dish. >> we've commented on the fact that we think there is obviously regulatory implications for anything that would be an inorganic transaction. that we have to be mindful of and wouldn't be confident that a dish/direct tv existential combination is something the regulators would be thuzed about. >> as for direct tv's rights to
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nfl sunday ticket stankey says they will look at how the digital rights to fit other businesses moving forward. sarah, back to you. >> thanks, julia up next another wild day on wall street the dow closing down 758 points, mike santoliack bat the telestrator with the deep dive on retail. weep we'll be right back so when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. that's how you do it right. usaa insurance is made just the way martin's family needs it - with hassle-free claims, he got paid before his neighbor even got started. because doing right by our members, that's what's right. usaa. what you're made of, we're made for. usaa
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because being effective means getting results. another volatile day on wall street with the dow closing down more than 700 points back to mike sanltly for the final dashboard. >> tracking the shrink for treft theft and breakage for retail. but look at how the chain resources has shrunk koll's gap american eagle converged 9 times down forward earnings then look at dividend yields today kohl's decent number raised the dividend, dividends between 7% and 8% of kohl's and gap. 4% market doesn't care pricing for permanent decline. the big question is whether the market is correct and these guys with sustain the divides or not. there is a grab for things like
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staples not because of high divides because they have sustainable divides at a premium to the bond yields. >> good point. is there a question of the retailers -- >> very long term i think so you look at the highest yielding stocks 75 stocks yield more than 4% it's retail, autosen a financials, minus energy. >> thanks. up next robinhood under fire after experiencing outage for two straight days. the full story when we come back but now quickbooks helps me get paid, manage cash flow, and run payroll. and now i'm back on top... with koala kai. (vo) save over 40 hours a month with intuit quickbooks.
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robinhood coming under fire. thetrading app experiencing tw outages in two days. kait rooney has the story. hi, kate. >> hi, wilf. robin hood online after the second day of outages. color commentary from traders on social media with some threatening class action lawsuits the company saying it's taking it on a case by case basis it's user agreement doesn't say that robinhood services will be available or error free every minute of the day. but people around the s.e.c. requires rabenhood to have a backup plan in case of natural disaster or outage legal people telling me the outage is raising rest red
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flags. they have been in touch with robinhood and monitoringment situation. the s.e.c. declining comment kate, thank you so much for that reminder. down 785 points on the dow today. another wild ride eyed out of time that does for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. a rate shock slams stocks, the yield on the 10-year treasury note breaking below 1 peppers the first time ever. the bombshell after the ned taste takes emergency measuring, the fallout widespread and our traders standing by to break it down a special edition of "fast money" starts right now. >> and yes welcome everybody to a special "fast money. and your guides in these crazy times, are tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan and guy adami. i'm brian sullivan again for
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