last couple of weeks. >> appreciate that. >> good to have you back. >> good to be here docusign a strategy of the markets bottoming, about range expansion and trading ranges today a small trading range. a good signal. see where it goes. >> we will good stuff thank you for watching "the exchange" starts now. thank you, scott welcome to "the exchange," everybody. i'm kelly evans. coming up from down 8 00 yesterday to surging 700 today we'll look under the hood of the rally. and see if it can last. plus the historic drop in rates has homeowners rushing to refi how low the rates could go and push up home prices. as michael bloomberg su spends the presidential bid, following the money to answer a key question, what will he and what can he do with the billions we begin with today's monster rally. we could call it, bob. also a monster selloff, bob

pisani at the nyse. >> we are used to the moves. today largely health care. near the highs of the day. volume is heavy but not as much as the last couple of days but take a look at the big dow movers united health, 24 points, a significant part of the dow's gains, health care of course moving generally on the lower chance and market looking at higher chance of joe biden to be the nominee against president trump there. banks, no bounce at all today. you see very little going on here of course, yields and new lows and probability of slower loan growth also not doing very well "football night in america"ly all this volatility, hey, helping the market makers. preliminary numbers of january and february higher than expected and higher volumes and volatility to help the people that make the market and the quotes out there

virtu is a big market mover of the year back to you. >> thank you there's plenty of confusion still that lingers over the fed's emergency rate cut yesterday so what do the pros think of it? will it help the u.s. avoid a recession? steve liesman is here. what's the verdict >> flash cnbc survey finding stock market, a positive but not enough to adjust from the coronavirus. a strong 62% majority of people approve of the fed rate cut. but only 30% think it will be even somewhat effective. none thought very effective. 43% say slightly effective and 23% not at all still, another 50 basis points of rate cuts expected this year and 35% believe the fed to go to zero in the next 12 months even after the rate cut, the probability of recession in the 12 months surged to 41%.

it's the highest it's been in the nine years asking this question on the cnbc fed survey forecasters estimate the coronavirus to shave 0.6 of a percent off of gdp growth this year they see a modest rebound for next year. >> come on over as we talk about this that's striking that 0% of respondents thought very effective the fed's move yesterday. let's bring in our guests to talk about this. charlie is head of the investment group at aerial group and jim. charlie, what stands out about the steve assessment of how everyone's digesting the rate cut? how do you feel about it as an investor >> i'm in the 25% that oppose this i think i'm public in saying it wasn't going to help but send a negative signal about what the fed is seeing, the fed has ways of seeing what's going on in the economy and them making this kind of cut sent the signal to the market that they're seeing

big problems so it's not going to affect the economy. the interest rates were already extremely low and hurt bank earnings i thought it was a bad idea and i think the market reaction showed people agreed with me. >> charlie, you have financial names on the list. slightly different businesses but northern trust not concerned about what these low rates do to their earnings model >> yeah. so the way we built our firm at ariel is trying to think long term and find a great company cheap because of a short-term factor and below 1% 10-year is a short-term factor out of line of 200 years. when interest rates return to the normal levels which they will at some point, northern trust will make a lot more money. >> that's exactly, jim, let's bring you in on this on an idea of whether or not the rate

levels are short term or not. >> i think they're going to be a little longer term than people think. i do think in the bigger picture we are near the final throws of the 39-year bull market in bonds and might last several months or a year or two before they go lower and if we get as the survey said any kind of hint of a recession or a big slowdown we could probably see the 10-year note go down near 0 before it's all said and done. >> i see here that you don't -- you are in the inflation camp and longer term. you think it could end, jim. i'm curious if you feel that way having seen the way japan and europe have gone where nothing suggests that big inflation ends the boom zero and negative rates are the norm why wouldn't that happen here instead? >> if -- you have to look at the virus saying is there a long-term consequence to it and deglobalization?

are we going to start demanding to pull back operations in manufacturing facilities from places like china and bring them home that will lead to more inflation. that will lead to higher interest rates in the long term and a compression in multiples in the stock market, as well won't be a panacea for the general stock market and that is kind of the concern you have to look at from here. this is not going to be, i'll go home in a month it's over and then go back to where we were in january. i don't think we will. i think there will be longer term consequences top of the list - >> i don't know what we were arguing about last time and seem to agree on that point with rates. let's bring in steve liesman. >> trying to understand the criticism of the fed here. first of all, the idea that the fed panicked the markets, let's be clear the chairman telegraphed this on friday the three days earlier the g7 with a statement that

morning. lagarde said they were going to do this but most interesting is this idea that you think the fed panicked the market with information of negative outcomes that it had that other people didn't have. i don't agree with that. i think the fed has the same information we all had but let's say you're right about that. is it your contention the fed should have withheld that information from the market? >> steve, we are talking about -- >> knew things were going to be bad -- >> the market up 300 or 400. they cut rates and it dropped about 800 points so the market clearly agreed with me that it did not like what it saw and the reason is that there's a big difference in a short-term problem. you can agree with larry kudlow as i do that this is going to be a relatively temporary headwind for the economy and then return to normal or you can take the argument that this is a big deal to a big deal on the economy the fed yesterday signaled the latter and i don't think the market liked that.

>> jim, i'd like your response, too. >> in context of being up 800 points. >> yes the rally is building today. >> bernie sanders coming to an end is why the market is up 800 today. >> jim >> yeah. i agree with some of that about today but going back to the fed yesterday, i was calling on sunday night that the fed to cut rates on monday and then did it tuesday because the market had a completely priced in the market was begging the fed to do it it was priced in i'll go you one step further the market expecting another 50 basis points in april. it's inside of two weeks telling the fed to do right now and i think the catalyst wasn't about the fed making a noise but they finally came along. down 800 more of a disappointment of where's the ecb, the bank of england? where's the coordinated action it was just a fed move i think the market thinks this is more serious. last week -- >> steve >> very quickly.

>> final thought here. >> the fed made a consideration about a material reassessment of the outlook. following a material reassessment of the stock market by the bond market, the world health organization, the world bank, the entire g7 and almost every medical expert that's out there. i would suggest it's consideration of a material reassessment is well supported >> you're sticking your neck out, charlie putting your money is where your mouth is. >> we are buyers when others are sellers. >> thank you all. >> thank you. >> and be sure to tune in tonight for cnbc's special report, "markets in turmoil. 7:00 p.m. eastern time. let's get to deirdre bosa with a market flash on uber. >> it is actually the ride sharing shares both of them spiking after the ceo said that the coronavirus outbreak will not have a material impact on the business

overall. he's currently speaking at the morgan stanley internet conference here in san francisco saying there's nothing harming, nothing that uber cannot adjust to and was also asked about the profit bltd target later this year and he said i'm more comfortable about the fourth quarter target than when i first made the statement lyft shares are spiking, too, on the back of the comments and lyft's cfo spoke at the conference and reiterated this current quarter's guidance and down playing impact of coronavirus. lyft shares up nearly 8% right now. >> wow but again, a strong tape today but still, pretty important stuff. we appreciate it thank you. now let's turn to the 2020 election and a super tuesday for joe biden as we just heard michael bloomberg has now suspended his campaign after a poor showing and kayla tausha in san francisco for us the guest saying the market rallying in part because of the biden win. >> after a dismal first month of

primaries, the former vice president swept super tuesday, secured access to unlimited funding and forcing elizabeth warren to reconsider her candidacy. according to nbc news biden has more than 500 total delegates, 50 more than sanders thanks to 458 delegates won in supertuesday states so far and somewhat of a close race and needs nearly 2,000 but the joementum is clear winning home states of amy klobuchar and elizabeth warren and sanders saw strong support in recent polls california the biggest tuesday prize is still too early to call maine is too close in exit polls, more voters suggested they wanted to build on the policies of president obama than ininstitute more liber liberal withins and if that's true in michigan, pennsylvania and florida biden will have the lead in the democratic primary

kelly? >> i love the joementum term which i hadn't heard and with the market sentiment swinging, i'm trying to anticipate what become it is hurdles then? it is never this easy. still a long time to go. what are insiders saying of how bernie might have a path here? >> well, certainly, kelly, the delegate allocation in california is going to be telling for sanders and then it really depends on whether he can keep up with grassroots support that he is touting throughout the race so far and retool his message for the rest of the california which includes a lot of those manufacturing heavy swing states, michigan is coming up next. but what remains to be -- i guess the insurmountable obltd potentially for sanders is all the money that vice president biden is going to be getting from mayor bloomberg's campaign now that he endorsed him, abandoning his effort and going

to be redirecting the resources, staff, his money toward that campaign going forward and it's hard to envision, kelly, these small dollar donations being able to stand up against that but, of course, you know, we have seen a lot of twists and turns in this race. nothing is counted out. >> we certainly have we'll talk about that money again in a little bit. we appreciate it now, coming up, airline executives are at the white house today as that industry reels from coronavirus hundreds of thousands of flights have been canceled and fees waived left and right. we have some names for you. plus a look at stocks to give you big yield as government bond rates continue to plunge. as we head to break, check in on the dow up nearly 800 points a moment ago and leading the way, united health up more than 9% today americanexpress up 5%. 3m, fidser, j&j up more than 4%. we're back in two. at fidelity, online u.s. stocks and etfs are commission-free.

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plus, get $300 off when you buy a new samsung galaxy s20 ultra. that's simple. easy. awesome. call, click or visit a store today. welcome back the airlines have been taking it on the chins as fears and flight cancels over coronavirus grow. look at the losses over the past month. american's down nearly 40% and the white house is holding a

summit with ceos of airlines to address the crisis what is the administration hoping to accomplish today >> reporter: this is the coronavirus task force talking with the airline ceos of tracing contacts that international passengers have when they come into this country. in other words, can it be improved can there be a better way of tracing where a particular person, who they had contact with once they get into this country? separate from that, though, the real question is whether or not the administration can do something to give the flying public more confidence that they can get on board, go on a particular trip, a business meeting. here's what the president had to say about that today. >> i think where these people are flying it's safe to fly. large portions of the world are very safe to fly so we don't want to say anything other than that we have closed down certain sections of the world, frankly they have sort of automatically closed them, also. they'll understand that and they understand it better perhaps than anybody yes, it is safe.

>> reporter: still, you look at what's happening with the airlines they're noticing a softening of demand internationally, domestically, talking to executives saying we are noticing weakness out there. number of airlines, you nighed american, jetblue, alaskan, waiving fees >> we're exploring all the different ideas and what to do to ensure that the planes are as safe as possible anything to continue to project stability, calm. >> reporter: that was oscar munoz talking to the president saying we would lovefor you to say it's safe to get back in the sky to fly but taking a look at shares of the four largest carriers in the u.s., the stocks under pressure and many of them down today, kelly, because the general feeling of investors and talking with analysts there's no sense of knowing when there will

be a bottom in terms of saying, okay, people will start booking trips again at the rate expected earlier this year. >> i heard secretary mnuchin saying same idea, safe to fly commercial thank you, phil, at the white house today. for more, the airline analyst at barclays. brandon, good do sto see you you think the airlines have upside. >> it is ingrained in the fabric of americans here. on average i think the average u.s. citizen gets on two and a half times a year and we would have to fundamental rethink if travel is long term impacted by a seasonal impact of a virus that could die down in the summer and been the case for a lot of these historical pre precedents. >> you say look to warren buffett. berkshire bought united this week and then people keep in mind that case could take a while still to normalize

this is going to be a rough ride until we totally got our arms around this thing. >> that's right. there is long term value the cost structures are equal. we think there's an ability to generate profitability even in a recession scenario and hear management teams echo that but the fear of investors are calling us saying, hey, what if travel goes to zero, how much cash burn do the companies have? how much balance sheet is remaining? looking at an american, anywhere from $30 billion of obligation on the balance sheet is a concern for folks thinking it's an extended circumstance of demand destruction. >> so you have american with a four times debt to ebitda ratio, debt to income roughly twice the industry average southwest is at, you know, .6. would you recommend american here would you only recommend those with a stronger balance sheet? >> american has roughly half the profitability of southwest, too.

that's a big indicator and we are seeing impactser in term and long term no reason why we can't improve the profitability of the business from here and swinging for the fences there's equity potential upside and we need to get past the news cycle sparking fear and maybe irrational fear at that. >> i hear more fear from people in my neighborhood than i do from my colleagues in the media. final thing here on the timing of this move and the strength of these balance sheets you see the jet fuel you think to potentially cushion the blow because at least the drop in oil means there's some relief on that front right? >> that's right. looking at fuel prices down about 20%. we don't know how much demand is down right now carriers tell you it's a fluid situation. the indication so far is that it's not nearly as bad as the stocks predict and you are right with the decline in fuel prices offsets 20% to 30% earnings

cushion of what could ham from negative bookings related to this. >> appreciate it different point of view on the airlines. >> thank you. coming up, health care stocks are getting a big bump today from biden super tuesday victory. we'll look at the biggest winners in the sector ahead. he entered to defeat trump and said he is leaving it for the same reason. what does michael bloomberg plan to do with the billions now and what is he allowed to do with them you can watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app "the exchange" is back aer isft a golf course is designed to be difficult. to challenge your thinking and test your execution. but great minds are driven to seek out the complex. they see what others don't, from an angle others won't take. they learn that embracing those challenges is what sets them apart. i am justin rose, and we are morgan stanley.

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easier for you! myww join today with the ww triple play! welcome back to "the exchange." the rally on wall street has been building all day. the dow's now up more than 800 points or sitting at session highs right now, a gain by the dow. it's the best performer in part because united health care up 10%. nasdaq up just under 3% today. here's the health care providers etf. having the best day since 2008 with a big boost of joe biden's super tuesday win with an 8% gain bertha coombs live at the nasdaq with more on the action in the health care stocks. >> hi, kelly when a difference a week makes the s&p healthen shurns sector on the pace for best gain in 12 years, a big relief rally to a great extent following that super tuesday win.

biden's surge makes the potential election outcome less binary bernie sanders campaigned on outlawing private insurers and setting controls united which is still down from a high on february 19 is among those to be hit on both sides, insurance and analytics business out of business and also feel the pain in its army of 30,000 doctors. when you take a look at united's moves year to date, it plunged sharply. bernie surged on that nevada win and today the reverse is happening, that orange line is bernie going down and united is moving higher. still a long way do go for the election and regulatory hurdles and an analyst told me that the market sees anybody but bernie as less of an existential threat for health care. >> all right they certainly do. we appreciate it let's get to sue herera for a news update.

>> hello, everybody. here's what's happening at this hour supreme court justices showing sharp divisions as they hear arguments in the first major boergs case of the trump era weighing a louisiana law requiring doctors who perform boer abortions to have admitting privileges at a near hospital. the coronavirus death toll rising sharply in italy with 28 new deaths over the past 24 hours. bringing that country's total to 107. italian officials also announcing the closure of all schools and universities nationwide through at least march 15. here at home, kroger limiting sanitizing products and cold and flu medicines that customers buy saying on the website to limit to five per order. and saudi arabia now banning all pilgrims from visiting mecca. last week, the holy site closed off to foreigners.

officials did not say a how long that ban will last you are up to date that's the news update this hour back to you. >> thank you. coming up, $546 million and 14,000 part-time jobs. not the bloomberg campaign but what was lost due to coronavirus when the world mobile conference was canceled looking at the trickle down effect. low rates may be bad for savers but great for home buyers how low will we go here's the home builders today seeing big gains today lgi up 4.5%. the whole etf up 3.5% today. we are back in two tomorrow. it's a day filled with promise and new beginnings, challenges and opportunities. at ameriprise financial we can't predict what tomorrow will bring. but our comprehensive approach to financial planning can help make sure you're prepared for what's expected and even what's not.

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welcome back let's catch you up on a bunch of stories that should be on the radar today. it is time for rapid fire. here is frank holland, contessa brewer and robert frank. welcome, everybody the big news of the morning, the field in the race for the democratic presidential nomination down to four after michael bloomberg dropped out after his disappointing super

tuesday performance. and endorsed joe biden rob the big bucks in the coffers of bloomberg, where do they go? what can they go >> he said i'll be the candidate or the most important person to that candidate so now all this bloomberg money, $500 million, so far going into the race, not a per delegate count spent over $10 million per delegate that he earned. >> wow >> clearly not the best return on investment. >> somewhat of a relief you can't throw half a billion dollars at an election and win on a democratic level that feels somewhat comforting. >> exactly he and tom steyer putting $200 million into this election bloomberg with 500 those two together just didn't compete. >> the money they have spent is gone now, right? >> gone. the question is, bloomberg said spend a billion or more to get donald trump out of office will he put half billion into biden? he can do that unlimited amount

of spending after the citizen united ruling through a pac or by himself, not coordinated with the biden campaign. >> right okay. >> none of that i'm joe biden and approve of this money from -- >> message. >> from biden. but he will welcome that funding and it's unclear, obviously you could resurrect an unresurrectible candidate like bloomberg with money but will money katla liz biden and give him help but they won't take a risk it won't help. >> the biden campaign would be very careful and cautious about that money because, remember, there are a lot of bernie supporters that revile bloomberg and taking bloomberg's money or using it in a way to advance your campaign -- >> billionaire. >> discourage the supporters from you if iiunifying. >> biden welcomed big money.

>> it was bloomberg's -- >> corporate money welcomed the billionaire donors so i think it would be hypocritical to now say i'm going to take every other billionaire and corporate money except for bloomberg >> we're about to hit news but is the method of the bloomberg spending, the instagram influencers, see that or pour into tv advertising? >> tv and radio. >> buy did local tv stations then we have breaking news from the capitol hill it is on coronavirus funding ylan muay, did they pass the bill >> reporter: not exactly the rough price tag is $8 billion. and it includes $6.5 billion to hhs including 1 billion directed to state and local governments, 3.1 billion will go into an emergency fund for public health and social services, part of the money for medical supplies the nih gets $836 million.

there's $1.25 billion for the state department and there's up to $7 billion that small businesses can access through the sba for loans in case they are impacted democrats are also highlighting that there's $300 million to help make vaccines affordable once they are available. that was a key sticking point in the final hours of this negotiation and expecting this bill to drop in the house later this afternoon the house plans to vote today and senate majority leader mcconnell said that he wants a senate to vote on it this week, as well. >> thank you now stocks near correction levels with the coronavirus selloff and importantly the yield on the u.s. 10-year which i keep watching on the screen, investors want yield anywhere to find it, especially anywhere safe stocks are offering some eye popping return, you know, yields

wesh we should say. >> it is volatility and coronavirus concerns people looking to chip stocks and that includes mcdonald's, verizon and looking at stocks outperforming the market going positive since this coronavirus outbreak happened. and still offering the high yields and stocks like campbell's soup is one of them there's also other companies like crown castle, a company i haven't heard of until a few days ago data centers not going anywhere duke energy, utilities since this coronavirus outbreak happened, a lot of people run to the safety of utilities. also tech. >> with the best of the both worlds contessa, looking at insurers, they might have the high dividends. >> looking at metlife or

prudential, huge global life insurers, rely on rates and they're in fixed income and a lower treasury yield is really squeezing them it is something that they have addressed on multiple earnings calls and lincoln financial, a yield of 3.44% that's great except lincoln financial is walloped because of the stock. now, the question is, how much pressure are these insurers under to cut dividends we haven't seen that so far. the insurers on the calls talking about a challenge of a low rate environment said we are protecting the dividend. how long does that last? >> robert, probably we don't know yet but the strategies of those wealthy with advisers to have creative solutions. what do the solutions look like? >> years from now we'll look back at where people walked out on the risk curve right now because they're being driven there to get some kind of income and i just remember all the conversations i had with the

wealthy investors in 2008 they said we can't get the return unless we go into these high risk corporate bonds >> 10-year at 4.5% not below 1% like now. >> a risk adjusted return and right now not getting paid for the risk you're actually taking. we'll find out years from now what the consequences of this were. >> so true meanwhile, hundreds of conferences, trade shows globally canceled because of coronavirus. now that cost companies and local economies a ton of revenue. some are the google, mobile show and barcelona. as of right now, south by southwest in austin is still slated to start next week but amazon and tick tock pulled out. >> the mayor decides we'll work with the city but this is a big decision and it could have repercussions if the organizers and the city leaders don't take the right step and might not know until afterwards the right

step but ish market said it canceled the conference in long beach, california energy conference in austin. world petrol conference in new orleans and said it deprives it of $50 million in revenue. ding profits by nine krenlcents share. is there insurance yes, there is. usually and they vary event to event, the organizers would have to take out an extension to cover communicable diseases and then, is it a covered event canceling out of fear. >> instead of an actual -- >> instead of the government saying there's a risk of a spread so there's likely back and forth on this. the same way we anticipate lawsuits on business disruption and a covered event in the event space, as well. >> did you see the james bond movie is delayed until november? newest james bond movie because, again, you can't -- this is why

disney shares hard hit over a past month or so if you have a big box office timing now counting on china for revenue like in the case of "mulan" you will not see what you would have. >> look at the hit to cities like las vegas, chicago, orlando, san diego that rely on those revenues from conferences and then tax bottom line is hit, as well. >> yeah. >> other side of this, we haven't seen any major sporting events canceled. all of them said they're looking into it. no plans to cancel any games talking about conferences canceled one shot with a closed group of people a basketball game, i would imagine the turnover is probably somewhere upwards of 50% and all types of people in close contact. >> spitting on each other. >> are you calling far end to march madness, frank i'm hearing caution. >> i'm not calling for anything. i'll a big sports fan. i want to see it

i can't imagine the insurance to cancel march madness >> or even if we need to go that far for coronavirus. we need to figure out how many people recovered from the disease, continue to do so, whawhat the mortality rate really is meg tirrell is next. todd, come on over tech product editor. we all talk about keeping the hands clean. most important keeping the phone clean. you did an investigation here. >> so i found, looked on apple's website how to clean the phone properly and generally don't use cleaning products which i have been doing for years i take a chlorox wipe and wipe it down the phone. an iphone 11, little bit of water and dab of soap and i recommend the alcohol wipes. >> chas the downside of chlorox? >> good question, frank. you could remove potentially the

fingerprint covering on the screen it is like a special koetding they put on top to prevent fingerprints you could scratch it but a lot of the products like lens wipes for the glass - >> does not disinfect. >> you don't want to damage the screen or just alcohol wipes. these are 70% alcohol. they're really cheap. >> wouldn't that damage the phone? >> no. you should be generally fine >> purell. on my hand. >> against what they say. >> alcohol on the phone is fine. >> trying to get rid of germs. and then there's also a special cases so this one's just called i adjust to lower the blue light and has coating on it to use just a screen protector -- >> hold it up. perfect. >> or what i recommend worried about that coating and follow the guidelines - >> i do all the time.

>> me, too. >> keeps me up at night. >> exactly. >> buy a cheap screen protector and wipe it down with chlorox. >> people are now spending hundreds of dollars on these uv light cleaning apparatus here's an example of how it can look for the phone ironically probably made in china. but point being is something like this recommended by apple do they have qualms about this >> they don't have anything on the site about this or documentation but generally they're supposed to work pretty well i ordered one. it is called phone soap. $120 fits most phones. >> phone soap. good name. >> the this product on the market before? >> around far long, long time. they're uvs used in hospitals apparently. >> who let someone else touch their phone? >> actually, one of the producers said - >> you put it down on the table. >> i bring mine into the restroom i do i do listen i carry it around because i have to pay for food.

it goes into the cafe. i try to leave it on the sink. you know then i'm like -- >> i realize if you use airpods, not putting the phone next to the face and maybe the sales benefit to keep the phone away from their face. not supposed to touch your face with your hands. >> i think that's a great idea, though not putting your phone to your face. >> still touching the phone and your face because -- try not touching your face. >> try not touching your face. very hard. wash your hands and your phone it is a better than just touching a dirty - >> bleach shower total bleach. >> yeah. >> not supposed to i do. >> we appreciate it. oliophobic. >> right. >> i have it >> todd hazelton, robert frank, contessa brewer and frank hall lanld. when we have both the franks, all get -- >> robert frank -- >> frank is my middle name.

>> even worse. how much of a boom could we get? what will that mean for homeowner, banks, economy? that's next. heading to break, a look at the most searched tickers on cnbc. the 10-year tops the list today. the dow, apple, tesla, s&p round things out

markets have been forced to reprice. there's an impact here on both economic growth and profit growth that will show up in the first half of 2020 but the important thing for investors to recognize is that there's light at the end of the tunnel we are not sure how long the tunnel is going to be. >> given all that, what role could the fed play in this >> there's an expectation to ride to the rescue here. i'm not sure how a 25 or 50 basis point reduction in the fed funds rate gets somebody who was going to stay home to go shopping at the million. >> what is the best investor >> real estate and infrastructure and within real estate leaning away from industry into more retail and office space.

>> thank you so much. >> thanks for having me. >> for more from jpmorgan asset management search for jpmorgan solve it online. welcome back to "the exchange." as the 10-year treasury yield sinks, it is taking interest rates down the average is 3.2%. the drop in rates led to mortgage application volumes jumping 15 pistons la% last wee. new data shows refinancing volume up 200% compared to a year ago yields continuing to falter, could we see mortgage rates drop below 3% let's welcome in andy walton

from black knight. andy, what do you think? could it ever happen sub 3%mortgage >> we wouldn't have thought over the last few years to get there. looking at the average spread, over the last six months 1.9%. theoretically it could but typically seeing 10-year treasuries drop the way they have we don't see that same level of reduction we are still at least for the near term likely above 3%. >> you have some great information of how many borrowers to be talking about to refinance. 11 million, 12 million, 13 million, 14 million? what are you estimating here >> so as of last week when freddie reported interest rates, 3.45%. there are about is 1 homeowners to save about three quarters of a point through refinancing. freddie reports tomorrow morning. if we see a drop that number

jumps by 13% if it drops a full quarter of a percent we are up to well over 14 million homeowners to benefit of a refinance 30% jump in a single week span. >> what about new buyers what's the impact of the falling rates as a result? >> right we have been seeing that trend play out over 18 months of the interest rates falling down to 3.5% and below now and last fall, the home price growth rates from just over 3.5%, already up to 5% and last time we saw affordability at this level between 6.5% and 7% and potential upswing there. >> right in a way to make housing less accessible let's go back to where i started. usual usually there's about a two-point spread between the treasury rate and the 30-year mortgage rate. >> yep. >> is it possible that we can fall further here or is there a

structural reason why at some point the banks and mortgage companies need to make a profit, they'll keep -- reminds me of oil prices falling and will they try to keep that spread where it is or even wider >> right i think certainly possible you tend t you tend to see the spread lepgen the further down treasuries go. with err in unchartered territories in terms of ten year treasuries, we have never seen them below 1%. typically you see a little bit more modest movement among 30 year rates, a little bit more spread when rates fall as much as they have. >> would you refinance right now? >> i mean, it's certainly something to look at we have refinanced in the past and we already have a low rate locked n but certainly something i think homeowners should look at, especially homeowners that have large first lien balances, also the record levels of equity in the market, record low 30-year rates as well. large vom lums of cash out refinance activity into the marked as well

that could be a growing trend in 2020. >> the house is the atm once again. >> hopefully not to that degree. i think we're seeing a lot more conservative behavior today than 2005, '6, '7 but certainly an increase in that type of activity. >> andy, fwooed to see you great information, thanks. >> thanks. now, lawmakers just agreed to allocate billions in emergency funds to combat coronavirus. this after california has declared a state of emergency. let's get to meg tirrell who joins us with the latest on the coronavirus outbreak. >> that $8 billion package to combat the novel coronavirus expected to go to a vote in the house potentially later today. this as vice president mike pence who is leading the u.s. response to the coronavirus said the cdc would lift all restrictions on testing so that, quote, any american can be tested, no restrictions subject to doctor's orders the testing capacity is still ramping up with doubts about how close the country actually is to the one million test capacity cited by the fda commissioner.

case counts are growing in the u.s. reaching 135 across 16 states that includes six new cases in l.a. county and four more in new york l.a. county declaring a local emergency today though it notes it hasn't detected cases spreading in the community yet in new york the four new cases all connected to the west chester patient identified yesterday. >> meg, come on over so there's too many questions i think right now, one is about the severity of coronavirus itself do we know the recovery rates of anybody who has been affected? is there any way to know or estimate how many people might have had it but not have serious, you know, severe symptoms i mean, it's really hard even if you think you have it i've read stuff from local doctors that say you have prove you have been in contact with people in an affected record and prove you have symptoms. >> a lot of people think that we are detecting the most severe cases the ones that show up in hospitals and therefore right now the death rate is going to

appear higher than it will probably turn out to be. out of china 80% of cases are mild a lot of us might end up getting this and not know, think it's a cold, not have severe symptoms it's the elderly and people with underlying conditions that do need to be worried and we need to be worried about. >> i almost wonder if we had it. i'm just saying, everyone in the house was sick. >> well, it is flu season, cold season. >> it wasn't the flu coming up markets are rallying today after yesterday's deep selloff cnbc's top financial adviser tells us the advice he is giving to clients next. now through march 31st. lease the 2020 es350 for $379 a month for 36 months and we'll make your first months payment. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

welcome back we have a huge market rally today. the dow is up 818 points, close to session highs stocks are now on track for their first positive week since february 14th. we have a 3% gain for the dow and nearly that for the s&p and nasdaq but these thousand point moves have become the norm and we still have rates at historically low levels what should investors do joining me now is david ray, president of salem investment counselors and number one on cnbc's list of the top 100 financial advisory firms of

2019 great to see you i will cut right to the chase, especially if you are someone around 55 years old what should you do in this environment >> thanks for having me. we are counseling just patience, being calm most of our clients we work for for decades and we tend to stay pretty fully invested, so our clients are actually not calling in much, they're pretty calm we think the outlook for the united states economy is great in the long run. so if anything we're looking to add into some positions. >> right >> if you're 55. >> yeah, go ahead. >> sorry no, if you're 55 and have some room maybe to add so some equities i think that would be prudent. buying into fixed income with a long time horizon at 1% and the ten year, which means it's 100 pe, doesn't seem like a great deal with he probably would be

looking to add exposure, but you can be patient i think we're probably going to go through some more ups and downs. >> sure. >> as the virus works through the supply chain we're counseling patience, but we're looking at things that might be attractive. >> i see here for that age group, again, we're talking about someone who might be in their mid 50s, although you counsel equities for all ages, you're saying this may be a good time to take advantage of low rates by refinancing the loans or consolidating debt using a home equity line. >> that's true you know, i've been doing this 35 years and i didn't think i'd see mortgage rates this low. so, yeah, that would be a good opportunity for someone to refi and maybe even use a little of that to buy equities if things continue to be rocky. >> you think it's okay as i look for someone who is 65 or so, 75 or so, you know, especially the 65-year-old age group you say

it's okay to invest your cash into equities and focus on total return stocks. this group shouldn't be afraid of cashing out in a down market? >> i don't think i would counsel them to cash out of the market, but i guess what you're saying is would i counsel them to invest more. >> right. >> yeah, i guess it always depends on your overall situation, right we manage money for primarily high net worth individuals and so if you've done your allegations correctly and you have some extra cash, yeah, i think it would be okay to add in a little bit, but -- into the stock market, but, again, i don't think you have to be in any rush i think we've got two to four, five, six months of some choppiness going on. >> david, it's great to see you with all of this happening in the market thanks for joining me. >> okay. thank you so much. >> david ray of salem investment counselors that does it for the exchange

i will see you on "power lunch." and welcome, everybody, to "power lunch." we're glad you are with us i'm tyler matheson as you see there a major rally on wall street as we are seconds away from the release of the federal reserve's beige book, this at a moment when the strength of our economy is up for debate the dow is up 800 points. diana. >> the u.s. economy expanded at a modest to moderate pace over the past several weeks according to most federal reserve districts with only st. louis and kansas city districts reporting no change, but there was significant concern across all districts about the coronavirus. the word coronavirus came up 48 times in the beige book release and covid-19 came up nine times. this data was collected on or before february 24th now, consumer spending generally picked up but growth is uneven nationally and there were mixed reports on auto sales. there were indications that the coronavirus negatively impacted