tv Fast Money CNBC March 4, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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california, moved the headquarters but any say that has nothing to do with why >> we will hope the gap keeps closing next year albeit progress slow. don't miss the report tonight market in turmoil. 7:00 p.m. eastern time massive rally up almost 1,200 points on the dow. that's do it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. a rip roaring rally on wall street as the wild market swings continue welcome to "fast money" everybody another big night for you i'm brian and your traders tonight are tim, steve, dan, and guy. all right. look at in move, 1,100 points, call it the biden bounce, the stimulus surge, whatever you want to call it, call it another monster day for investors. the dow surging 4.5%, more than 1,100 points by the way, the second biggest point gain ever, of course the bigsz only monday with in move
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higher, the nasdaq also turning positive for the year. and all 11 sectors finley in the green on the s&p 500 but, hey, don't look now because over there, in the bond market, yields are still trading near all-time lows, the 10-year grows a bit but at 1.06% yesterday, of course, below 1% so we're doing something a little bit different at the top tonight. everybody ready? >> go. >> do it, brian. >> we're going around the table. and i want each of you to give our viewers a simple answer to a sifrp question starting with guy adami. >> yes, sir why were we up 1,100 point. >> the short answer is i have no idea, brian. >> thank you. >> if you ask me to ask, i think joe biden had a lot to do with it you brought up that. maybe in rert expect, the global central bank non-sense or lunacy kicked in. maybe we were in an oversold condition. but i got to tell you last night
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sitting here the same time given the close with the fed news we absolutely re-test the 2,900 level. clearly that didn't happen today. with that said, you know the vix is still north of 30 i'd love to say all clear. i'm not ready yet. >> dan why are we up today. >> vix doesn't concern me. the rates while at the lows a little stabilization the.999 thing below the 1% on the 10-year got people's attention. small caps underperforming everything caught a bit. and i think rates stabilizing is good thing and there are few people out there who want to see see things come unhinge and the fed did what they did and then volatility and then a bit of a bottom. >> i think it was the 50 billion in imf making it available to fight it 8 billion to fight it. and basically socialism has taken a rear seat or back seat so hence biden, knows three
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things i think were the major things why the market rallied. >> i think it was positioning, brian, we were so oversold a couple of days plus 5 minus 5, whatever gets to you a place where a good part of the market is struggling to hold above the 200-day. the s&p did a nice job the triple qs have more room to plumb. but if you look at the market there are parts that aren't value rallied. we talked about the treasury bond yield you can also say the short end of the curve held the distress levels of two days ago the fed has to move more, it tells you. i'd rather talk about how transports, retail and banks are basically not catching a bid and that's telling you something about the economy. telling you about the cyclety of whatever this rally is there is no question that the complacency to me that accompanies and has been a part of central banks being part of our lives every day since 2008 is part of the reason why the market remains, i know even with
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the 30 vix it's complacent the bears have not crept up. mike santoli does a nice job talking about the bear bull indicators of the aai. it's the bears haven't gotten nasty just the bulls pulled back. >> you started the show saying why? >> wun you know why i asked that. >> why. >> because i have no idea. >> a sniff of a idea. >> everyone has a different idea. >> 21,100 point gains in three days. >> you did have the airline ceos in the white house, the first ones to take off today, that was that last leg higher in the overall market when you watch the two things happen, everyone wants to jump onboard because they think there is a bottom forming i think that's what you saw. >> steve mentioning the $50 billion. and he is right. but how much money this is not me speaking out of school schools are closing. people are now not traveling
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i have rchs conferences i'm supposed to go to that have been cancelled. it's not just me again, i don't know money is the cure for this. the market might think so. but i do think -- i'm not trying to be hyperbolic but i think more bad news is in store in terms of what it means fiscally. >> i think fiscally is the most important word there because this is not a health crisis it's turned into a financial crisis that's what's going on here. if you think about just the toll of just contaminated people and how many people dying and even if it's 3%, % mortality rate we're talking about tiny numbers in a planet of 7 billion people. we're talking about last night what the 50 backups cut means. you have the imf everybody getting onboard. at least you have a back stop initially for what is a brewing financial crisis. >> but i think you're right. this is not about the death toll
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because i think no matter how you slice it we're finding out more people have it and more people are asymptom attic. >> we're not doctors it's just about the economy. >> i'm following the facts like every other market participant it's having an effect on the overall economy. that's the bad side. but when people sit there and trade, they trade like this was ebola. they trade like this was a black playing. and it's not >> hold on i want to go back to what you said earlier. i could say today was the biden bounce because of what happened last night but that wouldn't explain monday >> but what -- >> nobody expected in result last night. >> i'll tell you. >> can i help out not that steve isn't doing just fine. what i would like to say -- yeah, i think you have a case where first of all with the fed pullback in accommodation if coronvirus was solved tomorrow no that's the scary thing but that's what the market loves. you want to know why the market
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found some ability to find some middle ground. i don't think equities get away from us here i think you have a dynamic where we are dealing with the reality of slower growth and it's not recession. it's slower growth and slower earnings whatever happens to the economy. but you can't tell me we don't come out of this in a world where there is more challenges to global growth and i realize every central bank possibly every government -- although we don't know are throwing whatever they can. >> i was watching the "halftime report" today and there were two strategist tripping over each other to one up the other's 3,400 target in the s&p 500 and the equation was well if i'm trying to get to four it could be eight minus four gets me to four they were talking about how the back half of in thing is going to be loaded and that's how we get back up to the prior highs in the s&p 500 i don't see it i don't know if you think about last year consensus for s&p earnings was at 1.77 or 1.78 coming in at 163 or 1.64 for
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2009 this year the same thimg expecting 19.77. there is no way that happens if you are telling me that we're going to have the second year of multiple expansion given all the issues that we say we have in terms of the headants endzone to growth it can't be the fed that does it. >> we're still down -- the nasdaq is up year to date with the move today but the dow is down 5 or 6%. it's not like a good 2020 from market perspective. >> two months respectfully. >> just don't do it respectfully. >> disrespectfully but to your point, this market was in my opinion was on extraordinarily shaky ground before anybody heard the term coronvirus yields were going lower. gold going higher. we had no earnings growth. all we had was multiple expansion. what has changed on that front nothing. then you add the unknown earnings -- you're not seeing
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earnings growth this year. you want to play the multiple expansion game, that's fine. >> but a reason to sell off you both nad nailed it. >> it wasn't selling off on trade. it wasn't selling off on iran. wasn't selling off on anything else it picked this because it spade we have no clue how to annualize this virus lets sell it. >> went up 1,100 point today and 1,100 monday. >> and you had the month end and 30 billion coming into equities and now you have the residual effect today this this week and whatnot. but if you take on bernie sanders as we started show that lets people breathe easier when. >> but he is not off >> lets bring in another voice the market unlike us or me anyway was a calm ride for most of last year we had solid gains in 2019 almost no big downdays and this year started the same. look at the chart. then february 20th hit and so did volatility.
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multihundred point downdays. losing streak more than a we can. a drop yesterday and thousand point gain today a good stat from twitter on the eddie evelyn bine this is the third dafl move up or town 4% in the last week in the year before that two two in the previous eight years. >> lets talk about the market swings and how you navigate. joining sus amanda, pnc market financial straegtist listening us to us talk and thinking i want to say, amanda, what? >> well i definitely agree with the move today being largely a function of as you said the biden bounce you know, we had been coming into this year talking with our clients about the volatility around the 2020 election and so the prospect of a sanders versus trump election became really real in the last few weeks with
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key wins out of primary states for sanders. and so i think the market really started to wrestle with that becoming a reality it was very much an underappreciated risk from our perspective. and so to the extent that biden has this really strong win and resurgence in strength last night, you know with basically taking the south and the big win in texas, of course the markets are going to breathe a collective sigh of relief. if you think about trump versus sanders that's a really really polarizing election season we have two candidates at the opposite ends of the spectrum. and last time i checked you can't average the two and get to a moderate outcome markets hate uncertainty and i think this just really injected a lot of uncertainty into the equation. >> and i guess that amanda i don't want to make for you. >> how do you price it. >> these days nobody wants to be a political analyst. >> no. >> but i ask this. first off well sanders is not out.
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he hasn't dropped out. he still has a lot of delegates and there is a path forward for him. so he being there still exists but is it because sanders lost a bit last night or is it the market saying that trump could beat biden more or and see biden wins it's not that different from what we have now? >> yeah, well it's definitely going to be a two-person sprint to the finish. we're not counting out sanders by any means but kind of felt like biden basically didn't have a shot, you know, in the weeks or so leading up to this and so to really come from behind at the 11th hour with the base consolidating around him was significant in terms of a sentiment remoted shift. i think at the tend of the day the market can very much live with a trump versus biden election as you said, it's going to be more of the same out of the current administration, or in the case of biden a more moderate approach to policy. and the big rally we had today
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in the health care sector very reflective of th debate? obviously last year we were talking about the multiple expansion. this year the likelihood of high single digit to double-digit earning growth doesn't seem likely but even if there is a mulligan or atrichk next to 2020 eps where should the market trade excluding the politics and the black swan of the coronvirus. >> on the a forward pe basis we see the s&p 500 drop a couple of multiple points in the last few weeks. we were at cycle highs from a forward pe valuation perspective. frankly, we said coming into this year that that is reasonable, elevated but not extreme given the fact that we have low rates, low inflation. and it's cyclically improving backdrop earnings growth looked like
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building moment ultimate into 2020 and jp morgan manufacturing pmi index posted five months of expansion or moved to expansionary territory recently. and so there was this really buildup in potential skrerlgts, largely a function in our view of all the stimulus that came into the system last year. at 19 times pe you can't pound the table and say the market is cheap here but we did feel that valuations were somewhat justified based on the backdrop two multiple points cheaper we'll take it. but again we're not in a cheap place. we're more like fairly valued on the s&p. >> it's tim, in terms of table pounding, table pounding in the equity market today and people running away from the team and people loving the bond market in a way that implies the economy is not so good who is right totally divergent. >> i think it's insane that we
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see the massivefullies into fixed income investments the tailwinds. of course we had the shot in the arm from the emergency rate cut yesterday. but the tailwinds from massive rate cuts the last 12 plus months and spreads tightening set the stage for strong bond market performance that we don't nifrpg is repeatable to the same degree this year and so, you know, as much as it pains me to say that i think the bond market is actually right at the moment because i'm very much an equity girl at heart, i do think the bond market is telling us kind of the right story here. you know, this is not 2008 the credit markets are not frozen the 2-year to 10-year portion of the yield curve steepened even before the fed action yesterday it was already steepening. that to me signals this is a short-term speed bump as it relates to growth.
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not permanent kbrmt impairment the huge fed rate cut yesterday and the huge pull. and the negative yield around the globe creating distortions and mucking up the signal if you will in terms of rates. >> well said i couldn't have said it better amanda we'll goat you back any time thank you very much. you know, it's been -- smart people remind me that biden won on saturday and sunday may have been more like a biden bounce again, which by the way is interesting because we've been talking so much about the coronvirus, guys, anybody can jump in which leads me to think that maybe the slide that we had was more politically based than we -- we blamed it all on corona look out for rosy because she is the queen -- i wonder if there is more political element to the market moves. >> lets be clear we thought about this in two kind of phases we thought about supply chain disruption and thinking the entire impact of the global integrated economy and looked at asia and said it
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used to be in the sars days we could identify and isolate and this is a global economy, integrated then we adjusted the impact on the demand side of the equation. it adds up to questioning where growth can be. and as dan he is prices on where can earnings be in the environment where we were facing three or four different rounds of headwinds the last year and a half that's what it is. there is no question that the politics are something swirling around the market a long time opinion and i would have argued they were not praised in but it's hard to say that, this is really all about a relief on accurate politics when this is about global growth. and there are real questions >> it's a good discussion. one we'll continue boyfriend, diving deeper in the supertuesday results and look at the one sector that may have won big are than biden plus, they may be big dividend plays but will they play out for you? the desk makes pick for
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to "fast money." it has been a heck of a 24 hours for let's call them the townshiple b's not bonds biden wins block bernie block and tackle and bloomberg bails out. a game changing day in the election all around. lets get to kayla tausche out west with more kayla. >> brian, a game changing day in the most populous state california isn't tallied still too early to 54% of the kroet in and sanders leading in. but biden closing the distance with sanders, biden with 513 total delegates according to nbc news bernie at 461 the next stretch of primaries including a slough of swing states where moderate voters feature prominently. in the exit polls we learned that only a quarter of voters said they were liberal appear in most viewed socialism unfavorably. mike bloomberg was unsuccessfully in the bid for those voters and this afternoon
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he gave public remarks after ending the 100-day half a billion-dollar campaign and got a little emotional >> our campaign for a better america, a stronger america, a more just america, more equal america, and a more united america continues. and together we will get it done thank you. >> part of the way he is going to do that is by endorsing former vice president joe biden and pledging resources toward the effort now legally he can't give bidden the money outright he said on the cnbc last hour that it will serve as a vendor providing data abstaff appear resources in the effort. shiekky said the resources aren't just for biden but for congressional seats as well. we'll see how and when there is the transfer of wealth it does for the biden effort. >> that's an understatement i
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think. kayla. we appreciate it thank you very much so that biden bounce making the health care stocks and investors feel good today. anthem, centene, humana, cigna, all insurers posting the biggest one-day rally since 2008, guy adami. >> yes, sir. >> but what day dotting not a rally make. >> unh, a name you didn't mention but i'll throw in with the group. in a month almost a 300 billion-dollar company went from 270 to 305, 260 to 289, in the course of maybe 20 or so trading days absurd up 10% today on a benign tape into earnings, i still think this is a stock that given blow market multiple, give it a 17 multiple you're talking about a stock should be trading north of $320. i think that's where it's going. but the fact that the stocks move 10% in a day is madness i mean there is nothing normal about this
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>> why is it madness. >> you tell me that unh business was 10% better today than -- it's absurd. >> if you think about it, they all still have a target on their back it doesn't matter whether you come from the bernie sanders angle of what health care should be or the joe biden angle of what health care should be. >> of course it matters. >> he basically wants the companies to go away. >> it doesn't matter they will figure out sanders is not going in with undivided government, not doing what you say on the campaign trail and do behind the seat at 1,600 pennsylvania avenue, it's not getting done but all the companies have target on their back i would take profits when you see to guy's point the stock rally like this aggressively on the signal day. >> again, if you look at a lot of the stocks -- and you know the cignas of the world were more volatile. united health cares as guy is talking about, the stock had been quietly steadily heading to new highs near highs when we got
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to what was seemingly a corona inspired pullback for the entire health care market but the snapback on whether it's bernie and benine policy -- excuse me or excuse me biden and benign policy. all the alit ration a lot of respect for what you were doing earlier. buts in a company growing earnings jp morgan upgraded earnings two weeks ago after the 2020 guide better than expected that's why you stay in health care, because at a time when you question where eps is that's these are companies delivering at multiples that aren't that difficult. >> and the way to do it, i mean the xlv, the select etf, unh, johnson & johnson, bristol ob merck. that was $907 in october and broke out went to $105 and friday touched $90 here we are back at $100 that's the way to play especially when you consider the pharma issues, the companies have issues on the political
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front and supply chain issues with china i think you want to disperse the risk across a bunch of the names. obviously unh and the move it had today helped the xlv but i think that's the way to play it. >> good conversation on a sector there. later today, check out more of the big news go to the website any time in the meantime here is what else we have coming up on fast. with interest rates hitting one y'all-time low after another where is a trading to go hunteding for yields we look at stock play was good prospects. later energy ministers gagt they are vienna ahead of the opec meeting tomorrow but what do options markets expect the decision to mean for oil prices we get answers to to that and a lot more when "fast money" returns.
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the coronvirus hask force is holding a media briefing vice president mike pence if they make any market moving headlines. we'll of course bring you that but they are giving the update right now. in the meantime lets turn back to the monitor day on wall street, the dow up more than 1,100 points, again. but over in the bond market yields feel pressure the 10-year note eyeing a fresh record roe that got us thinking if you are searching your field, you want cash where do you find it in maybe look to stocks because bonds aren't giving you anything and listen to the stat which is definitely random but interesting. 71% of stocks in the s&p 500 are now yielding more than the 10-year treasury what's interesting
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>> i thought it would be higher than 7 % i think that was galgsa. >> looking at three sectors of the market with attractive yields i want to kick things off with the hard-hit retail sector names like macy's. former coach, tap evidentiary. yielding more than 5%. tim, do you like any of them for yield. >> that's tough. if you look at retail it really i don't think has seen much of a bounce at all. if you look at all the names they traded up almost every one of those names -- i wouldn't say kohl's is broken and tap evidentiary isn't broken i think macy's is broken and gap is rudderless. so tap evidentiary based upon the last round of numbers where they bet and guided on the core business, which was very respectable. gross margins close to 67% you're never buying a company i think just for yield because in macy's that's a 12% dividend yield because the stock is down
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60% in 13 months you have to be careful we all know you could lose that entire yield that's not a reason to buy a stock in my view tap evidentiary is the best all-around combination of fundamentalsen a a chungy dividend. >> tappest is one of the top ten albums bums by carol king without don't at my, please kids at home. but kohl's to me might be interesting. you had a big volume day 15% or so short interest stock is grim death but maybe you flushed out people on the last move if you look for risk reward out of the retail names kohl's might be interesting. >> you don't think it's too late for kohl's. >> you're so far away it's hard to hear where i'm sitting. >> you never said that to me but we have to worry, dan, in the names whatevers it to tim's point company can stop paying dividend, cut the yields. >> i think guy's point about kohl's is interesting. at the end of 2018 the stock trading at 80, at $36 right now.
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you have the dividend yield. basically the 5-year low is down at the levels in the mid-30s and you say, is this stock going -- the risk reward is important you have to have a view on the stock, fundamentals, then if the dividend yield worked understand if you get the stock direction right that yield is lower. >> all right lets switch over to energy because obviously a lot of high dividend yielding names here ox dent alpetroleum be sh lump jay. exxonmobil i don't know how much more we can talk about these exxon's yield at 6.7 highest in 35 years ox denle is highest. but no guarantee they don't cut capital spending although chevron said they are giving money back to shareholders for five years but they could cut dividends. >> they could cut dividends. when i look at exxonmobil it's is a 7% basically dividend and then you look at the stock down 25% year to date.
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so in theory, i disagree with the game because i never buy something just for the yield because you can give it away one or two days bad price action i don't believe the energy space is right with any type of bargains i think we are oversupplied i think there is glut of energy. you have to see the commodity level off first and bounce considerably before the subsector is okay. >> i get it. >> opec meets tomorrow and friday we did something on power lunch for that tim, this is for you, you ready. >> i hope so. >> i wonder. >> don't hang me out here. >> i wonder if this is the sign of a bottom. jeffreys, said they are done, giving up completely on energy and, worse, they compared the group with the 1962 metropolitans. >> wow >> the one. >> basically told me. >> jeffrey at 6 it. >> right now a metaphor for the ultimate in futility you could do that.
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vegas says 86 wins over under i'm taking the over. sespida, the yields after the wild borja accident are working. lets get back to energy. talking about sub4% in terms of the weighting of the energy sector in the s&p and at its peak close to 17, you get why they don't need to be in the space. and to quote our friend, something inside has died, and there is no hiding from the fact that the energy sector has been a widow maker for a lot of people having said that, you talked about chevron, this is one of the most capital disciplined integrated oil companies in the world at a time when rates are zero these guys will pay the dividend until the end of time. >> never gave it up. john watson. >> the ceo. >> i can own chirch. >> sh lump jay. >> you have to make 30 the most interesting is oxy is huge follow volume days last couple ways.
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>> owing buffett some money by the way. lets round out with the consumer craft heinz. cody, the makeup company, again all offering pretty dividends. dan, you got requisite heinz at 6.2. general mills at 4%. any of these attractive. >> i would say general mills over a kraft heinz we know there is issues there. i don't think you want to dip your toe into the names with the really structural issues here. so general mills, we know the staples work okay get expensive. >> referring to jeff mills, ak at, the general. >> hi, jeff. >> played lacrosse. >> lax ten years ago i think you avoid kraft heinz. yoend would be why to be involved. >> that would be my pick as well you have the run when people were stock piling this is a package food company people are going out to stores, buying ahead, buying water, cleaning products, buying the stuff that general mills makes so you might want to wait a bit
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until the fever kind of breaks on the virus and see where the stock is then before you hunt the yield. >> coming up, the one that investors have been piling into as the coronvirus spreads, and it's fainting in the after hours. reporting their results, there is the chart we're giving you the updated trade and the name and what they said coming up but later on, five big stocks, five big upgrades, call it a lightning right now, some of wall street's biggest calls you might have missed because the it would un1,100 points the mets will lose. >> why are you doing that? or advisory fee. and we can monitor to see that we're on track. like schwab intelligent income. schwab! introducing schwab intelligent income. a simple, modern way to pay yourself from your portfolio. oh, that's cool... i mean, we don't have that. schwab. a modern approach to wealth management.
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welcome back we have an earnings alert. a stock we told you about before the break. the stock is down after hours. zoom video far less than it had been. deidre bosa in san francisco, this was the premier coronvirus bull play, fell big after hours. but it's come back what did any say about the quarter. >> that's right, brian consider it the hottest coronvirus trade, up some 70% this year. so it was priced for more than perfection and even though delivering better than expected
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numbers on every metric, i repeat the stock is up 70% this year just a few months. now it's been a tear as company schools and conferences go remote to prevent impact dpr coronvirus according to one estimate zoom added more use than all of 2019. but the big gains made shares more expensive op the price to sales ratio than the premium coupa data dog and workday some analysts like morgan stanley suggest that zoom got over its ski as bit. but while zoom added users keep in mind that costs may be rising we don't see that yet in the results. the company lifted limits for free users in china and says it's monitoring servers to quote ensure maximum reliability that could cost money but still guys, shared paired losses they were done as much as 10% after the result now they're done just about 4% in extended trade.
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brian, the call is just kicking off. the ceo is talking so the q & a portion is coming up in about 20 minutes we'll be listeneding. >> deidre thank you very much. i mean, dan this has been bang, zoom to the moon is any of this real buying or just hey, what's the coronvirus virus play buy it don't care what they do. >> i think there is scarcity to the obvious plays this is a secular trend happening. they have a great product. i would say this about the ipos when this cop came out what was unique on jaufrted basis they were profitable. that was one thing where investors overlooked the high valuations but deidre nailed it at 30, 35 times sales, it's a really tough name to get your arm around even though they are profitable the 65% gain since the end of january when the coronvirus really started to become a thing of the markets, you got to think there is a lot in there for that this is one i think all of us felt when in stock was $60 or whatever this was a unique tech story, especially out of that
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2019 ipo crop, i don't think we could say that here. >> okay. coming up, we're talking banks bull's-eyes and burtos a five big analyst calls hitting the streets. we're about the alit ration. later on we spotted a big bet in the options market ahead of the opec meeting, opec options, "options action," tim. >> love it. >> by the way the special coverage tonight, markets in turmoil. 1,100 point gain for the dow, but not everything is all keir clear. 7:00 tonight, don't miss it again. we're back after this. ugh medics getting to patients in record time. we see harnessing natural gas unleashing the promise of clean energy. we see engineers simulating the future to improve today. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved.
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we'll call it the top five, that five i think that's taken five big calls from analysts lets call to it fast five. here we go morgan stanley, upgraded to a buy at citi bank citi upgrading morgan stanley. calls it a quality franchise on sales, guy. >> quality franchise on sales. i like this upgrade only because you had the massive double top we talked about. the stock cratered tested levels we saw within the last six months seemingly held. if you want to play stock market it makes sense
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i don't love the banks but morgan stanley gives you something to trade against. >> next up wells fargo upholding to overweight, the analyst bullish on the restaurant drive to expansion saying this could be steve grasso, the dominos of the decade. >> i agree with that chipotle found a way to do a lot right. but i believe coronvirus has affected it when you see the stock sell off below all moving averages opinion the 200 at $800 keep an eye on 70,800 you're in no man's land. >> wouldn't drive through restaurants. >> you got people hacking over your head they are making it. >> they are not making over it they are hard working people. >> the chipotle is just a comment. >> general comment. >> moving on to tafrgt, goldman sachs adding it to the conviction buy list saying it stands to benefit from
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competitor store closures do you like the call. >> it's a good call in terms of they are operating with efficiency if you look at holiday numbers they were up 13% your the year. the stock had a massive run and pulled back. in terms of execution i think it's strong. i think we are overstored in the big box. you need to see that it's fiercelycompetitive ebrahim in the food on the pullback target is interesting. >> big box stores moving to the next call, retail name home depot to the upgrade from buy from neutral say going could benefit from the strong housing market. as well guy adami that people may net stay home spend money. >> go get the gardening supplies dig in the earth which i happen to love to do. a lot of reasons to like home depot valuation isn't one of them which they cited. i don't think it's expensive at 21.5 times
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i think 250 is the price target. i think it gets there. >> i'm long home depot, i like the stock. it's at all-time highs it's come back and lower rates appear a snapback but this virus is not the reason to buy home depot. just like hurricanes when people go to buy masking tape and replywood is not the reason to buy home dee poe buy it because it's a duopoly in and better in terms of efficiency than lowes. >> the you have to tend the earth. oracle upgraded to buy saying this stock is a good defensive bet against coronvirus dan what do you think of in. >> i don't know how you attach the two things if you are saying the secular shift to the cloud, the recurring nature of revenues but this is not an exciting company. the last couple of quarters this is before the virus came around were disappointing which guides lower. another point, the 52-week high
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came last july the market topped off from the all-time high a week and a half ago. this is six to eight months from the all-time highs i think it's a value trap i'm not buy going. >> good stuff with the fast five coming up a big bet in the options market, all out of the opec meeting we'll drill down ahead. but first a look at the cramer cam. jim chatting with the dollar tree ceo that stock under pressure like every other retailer but what could it take to turn it around? of course you find out at the top of the hour. "mad money." but yeah in the done at the nasdaq in times square, back after this. awesome internet.
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all right. well back. oil giving back a bit of what it gained yesterday ahead of tomorrow's critical opec meeting where the market hopes a major supply cut could be announced, maybe a million plus barrels on top of what they're already doing. crude prices tumbled nearly 25% of course due to coronavirus, global economic slowdown and too much doing gone oil everywhere meantime, in the options market you've got one trader throwing down a multimillion dollar bet that the crude collapse is not
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anywhere being over. mike khouw in san francisco with what they're betting on. mike. >> yes, we're looking today at the wti oil futures contract options. what we saw today was that puts outtraded calls about 2 to one usually about even and on top of all of that, they also represented the five movie most active af options the trade we were looking at was the june-24 ut tread this morning over 11,000 traded by the end of the day 12,000 traded bearish bets that the june future's contract could drop below 34 by june expiration that would be a significant decline from where the june future was trading today, about $47. this trade costing a little moreover $2 million in total premium would be worth 5 a million dollars if if gone got to the lower level lets point out that's a fairly low probability bet. what we can also see is that the implied volatility for oil futures options right now is extremely elevated what this chart isn't showing us
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is how much the puts are bit definitely seeing bearish activity despite the big declines we have seen. >> that's incredible i just asked dan i think my mic was up thank you very much. is that something that's trying to waste $2 million or is that because it's a low probability you got to be superbar bears or is it a hedge. >> it hadding levels we haven't even in a long time. i think the fundamentals are different nan the lows back in 2016 obviously this unknowable thing about global growth, you see a lot of different activity. it could be speculative, could be a hedge. >> 2016, the low was around $42. 2017, both of these were in summers what one was in august one in june or so. then it was a 2018 low in december around $42 opec has become less and less relevant we've seen the stock market or the oil market i should say move less and less based on geopolitical fears so if it does break down and we see break down below the 42 mark this could head to lower 30s
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really, really precipitously. >> if libya -- i'm usually at the copeck meeting there is no media allowed at the event. keeping them in a hotel a ways way. they don't want the media near them if you don't get the million dollar barrels a day cut you'll see the slide in oil. >> i think opec has done an extraordinary job the past 18 months i think oil is about supply. what's coming out of the non-conventional in the u.s. and other alternative fuels and opec had to reel it in. by the way, there is no question that biden is helpful to the energy sector. that's another dynamic here which may relieve pressure. all right. guys thank you very much in the meantime we have headlines crossing now call it breaking news if you wish from the st. louis st. louis bank president jim bullard he says he is optimistic the united states can handle the koefrpz outbreak but the bigger headline a moment ago he said the fed needs more data to justify further rate cuts. remember, the fed meets two weeks from now
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march 18th i think it is, guys and based on fed funds futures it's 100% chance guy there is another rate cut but bullard saying got to see more data. >> you know my views on the fed. yeah, they need to see more data following the rest of the world down the rabbitt hole because somehow we're supposed to be leaders to negative rates instead of followers it's madness the market likes it which is the great that's the role of this tim alluded to that many times but you know, at a certain point you have to pay the piper. and we are precariously close to that point. >> all right on that happy note we leave and go to break and come back with the final trades hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard >> announcer: "options action" is sponsored by think or swim by tt amarried trade. thanks. we'll see ya.
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all right time for final trades tim, please kick it off. >> if you are waiting for the opportunity to buy home depot you missed it. but it's a great long-term story and the fundamental warrant own going here. >> grasso. >> snapchat, the stock down $4 on coronvirus. i don't see it buy. >> all right no relationship, dan. >> jet blue got nailed in the last month down 0% i think it's finding a bottom at 15
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i like. >> guy. >> we have done the show the 13 years. first time indigo girls thankfully mentioned because i can't name an indigo girl song the that said the snap back in energy fierce. oxy du "mad" with jim cramer starts right now. we'll see you tomorrow night my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money. welcome to cray mer ka, other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you money. my job is to educate, teach you, and put big days like this in context. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me
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