emergency heart surgery. this is friday, march 6, 2020 and "squawk box" starts right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and joe kernen we have a guest with us today. good to have you here. dow futures are down 633 points after a decline of almost 1,000 points again yesterday s&p dune by 106 yesterday. this morning, the nasdaq looks like it will open down about 263. yesterday, the nasdaq lost about

279 points looking at the treadsrys the 10-year is at 0.77%. that is nuts >> especially when you start to look at where we were a handful of months when people were talking about a 3% as rates go down cheaper this is such a panic move. >> is it forecasting a global

movement >> the problem is that everyone was worried that stocks were overvalued >> the problem is there is no way of gauging what the effects are. everyone at this desk could have started throwing stocks at the wall people are going for safety and quality. >> these are panic moves i'm not sure it is unwarranted >> people will sell off first and panic later.

they'll say i'm looking out for a year or two or three that's probably what we'll reassure now can stocks bounce off the previous lows of 12% >> i think the market has to recalibrate to digest the lower yield and the market sitting across the table, stocks don't often bottom on a friday but the fact that everyone thought they weren't going to bottom is the chance that they weren't going to bottom. before we panic and say we can't

bottom or rally, let's remember where we were last friday and we did? what was your low? 28.55, which was the october low. >> we stood at that board together and circled that number >> down to a decimal and it was perfect. >> that was a technical call >> it was. has your mind changes at all since then >> since last friday >> based on fundamentals, it has changed? >> yes >> it's purely technical >> you can't trade corona on fundamentals >> looking at the level and s&p cash, if that doesn't hold, you ratchet down >> if they go down in 50 clips and 50 handles you are looking at 2,825

then you start breaking down fat round numbers. then it is 2,750, 2,700. >> i want to ask the question too. fundamentals have changed. >> buts that thenature er. >> that's why you hilt these levels and everyone scratches their head and why if you try to minimize it. it will look worse we are

talking about 100,000 cases globally at this point it is not even close to the normal flu season >> think about it, if we test now and we have more people that have it, that's joe's point. now the mortality rate goes even lower. i've never seen the world be brought to their knees i'm not belittling the deaths but it does seem overdone to you? >> no. >> people aren't dropping dead in the middle of the street. >> it doesn't matter about the

individual situations because it does but it is having a massive economic effect. you go through the airport and no one is in the airport >> anyone who continues to short the airline, you run the risk of the federal government >> there is no clear path. >> even if you say you are going to save the airlines, that might marginally save things >> the airlines don't need to be saved just yesterday >> what is the tarp of this moment >> if i said i'm going to pay for everybody's coronavirus if there is anyone's medical bills, would everyone go out and go shopping i don't think so

there is nothing anywhere near so i don't think you should use the word tarp. use a new word your neighbors are not dropping dead. this is not 90, 95% like ebola i'm not trying to make light of deaths this is not the level being priced in now. >> i've turned into becky with paper towels open. >> this is just me

>> changing behavior >> joe is washing his hands now. >> washing and purell. >> it is precaution. it is highly likely to be here more than anyone else. you talk about a petri dish, welcome to it. a health issue and it is an important member of wall street. a long-time friend of this show and others jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon is recovering after emergency heart

surgery. the procedure was successful and dimon was alert and recovering well he went to the hospital after experiencing chest pains at home they called it an abnormal separation of the tissues in the wall of the blood vessel it is a very serious condition most commonly affects men in their 60s and 70s. co-presidents pinto and smith will lead the bank pinto leads the investment bank and smith is in charge of the consumer bank. the move to have them take control in dimon's absence follows the succession plan. >> important that jamie knew his body well enough to get to the hospital early >> he's alert and up jamie, if you are watching

i hope you are not but if you are, we wish you well. we'll talk more about this >> can that be from pressure >> it can be >> it can be con gent tall my dad had this. it can be ongoing high blood pressure i don't that was the reason. >> my dad was 69 when he had the surgery so it was a longer recovery than you would have at 63 years old >> also catching it earlier. >> all this stuff with jamie going through the throat issues and now this the succession plan has to be in place. he's the cream of the crop in the financial space. we have to start thinking, what do you want to do with the rest

of your life maybe it is time to pass that torch now. >> i'm sure he's thought about a lot of those things. more than anything, we wish him well >> of course >> looks 50 max. >> yes now back to market treasury yields the rate on the 10-year hit a new low as investors look for safety are debts really safe? the 30-year real safe. close to it. we'll get to the february jobs report due at 8:30 eastern we are joined by our guests here it is a rush to safety

are you safe when you buy the bond it is all relative. that is driving the markets. that will go all the way to zero in terms of actions that's what has driven the market. they've gone back to the zero bound. the fed has been very clear

people are pricing in the possibility. this is not our choice you try to blame europe. they are responding to the economic conditions there as well >> the funs rate is a choice they go back to 0 to 25 range. they don't have to go below zero they don't think it is a good idea in the u.s. on all the past

crises now they've had five or six percentage appointments. how has the balance sheet come in and does that avoid zero rate how does the balance sheettake effect to reinforce then there are targeted mess you'res and no sign of it at this point i think the other thing some of those

things that they saw if this turns into an event which will effect small to medium sized companies, do you have a situation where the fed starts to get a situation to expand its balance sheet we haven't even seen during the financial crisis at least we don't have a jobs number today or do we? >> that's the range of performance today. is that 12 or 13%. i want to get back there >> let's look where next month is like the ism numbers. that's why the market isn't

terribly focused on it really in the rearview mirror at this point 170. this is the second week of february, obviously. >> in six months, where do you think? >> in six months, i don't think you can rule out it will be negative in the next month or two. you can't envision companies were, the desire to have people coming into your office p and be interviewing and adding to staff on top of the certainty. it feels like it could slow. i will say in this part of the country and in the financial markets, we are more focused than you are seeing broadly. i think the combination of uncertainty and the sheer logistics of interacting that is leading to a quick impact on the employment data.

>> all right thank you. time square is the cross roads and we are at a building at the cross roads where everybody from around the world comes in and they go and use the bathroom and open the door. >> all of those things >> okay. so maybe i'm not crazy >> but this is our life right now. it could be a lot worse. it could be the black plague or something. >> i'm paranoids about everything i would not be leaving my house. >> becky is definitely more worried than anyone at this table. >> and i'm here. when we come back, a live report from vienna where opec and non-opec countries are trying to agree on a production cut and our exclusive

conversation with exon mobil ceo. first a look at the best performing dow stocks are down 3.5 perts to 4.5%. stay tuned were you watching "squawk box" on cnbc. (sensei) when i started cobra kai, the lack of control over my business made me a little intense. but now quickbooks helps me get paid, manage cash flow, and run payroll. and now i'm back on top... with koala kai. (vo) save over 40 hours a month with intuit quickbooks. should they downsize? nesters now. probably. will they? not as long as thanksgiving is a holiday. planning for the future is about more than just money. let equitable be your guide. we sunleashing the promisegas of clean energy. at emerson, when issues become inspiration,

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welcome back, opec and non-opec members meeting in vienna the question is will russia join in on this good morning to you. >> good morning. we have oil prices tumbling now. analysts telling us this has to be a good big or go home moment. we have ministers debating what could be the cut here is the situation as it stands meeting late into the evening and agreed to cut production by a million barrels but only if russia agreed to cut by 500,000 barrels. russia has said it is unclear whether it will go along with this we have heard inside the room

talks between saudi arabia and russia so far have been difficult. coming into this meeting, we heard from the uae energy minister and he said he was hopeful. let's listen in. >> we are hoping that russia is a very important member. they've been working with us for a very long time i think we understand each other now. we look forward to a good meeting. i cannot comment on the options and all of that. i cannot see us not agreeing because that is very important for the market this is looking contentious back over to you.

>> meeting yesterday at the new york stock exchange. shares have fallen march since the merger under pressure from a global drop in prices trying to continue to invest he said exxon mobil is entering to a plan where gas producers will see an earning. and that 2020's cap ex will be at the lower end of that range at about $33 billion we spoke to him about strategy >> as we talked about before, we have to take a long term view. our strategy and plans was

robust delivering on though products. that makes sense when you are watching oil. does any of that make you nervous. you've got to be looking at some of these things and thinking, wow. >> it is easy to get caught up in the short term we've been in this territory before. the investments are all robust even below $40 a barrel the

intent there is robust >> we don't have a cutoff. we would test them under different price environments and looking to the response. going back in time and looking at history, oil would get to close to a reasonable range. it would drop to periods but it doesn't last for long? >> what if it did? what that could mean for the

economic impact they are going to generate the returns. as it declines, you'll get a gap and then prices will come back up again >> checking prices yesterday where they would see it jump up in production. why do you think that is trying to figure out where prices will go and making sure investments will make. coming back to the fundamentals. what will drive the demand for energy and economic growth and people moving up to the middle

class with prosperity growing. getting to the coronavirus to slow things down for a while you are not going to stop for the medium to long term. people aspire to a longer standard of living, there have been numbers run in terms of paying the dividend. jpmorgan ran something saying they think prices need to be at $81 a barrel versus $63 is what they put for the rest of the u.s. group how do you look for the shorter term dividend? >> we have a balance sheet that allows us to do that making sure we invest for the long term so we have the sustainable growth platform. reliable dividend and balance

sheet. then we have the extra cash. that is built for times like this the way we look at it is we are generating enough dividends. using the strategic investments and will be required as that demand picks up. >> to pay the dividend if those stay longer, would you can cut back or buy the shares how would you do that? >> we have flexibility we have a really robust portfolio of investments so some of them, we can pull back some of that spending without losing the advantage of the project or its value we've started to do that to pull back on the investments without changing the structural improvements we talked to the

analysts about two years ago we have been delivering on the structural improvements. we are on track to earnings and cash flow. rolling this out in 2017 even with refers put in place, we are still on track for that we have still put together an investment portfolio that is the best had since exxon merged with mobil. it is a really rich opportunity. it is an organic investment profile. we've been advancing that. we have balance sheet capacity if a unique opportunity was to present itself it would have to be pretty attractive with things in the portfolio. >> we've also seen the biggest pull back in shares.

does that get frustrating for you? i think the energy market or industry has been out of favor with investors this comes back to the market. energy was needed for a long time to come oil and gas would be needed for a long time to come. we have to be patient and let the market move through its highs and lows >> we would have more in the next hour. talking about how millennials don't want to invest in these companies and we'll get his response too coming up, what companies are doing to respond to the outbreak first, our squawk pod, it is so much more. it is not just a repeat. you've got to listen download it anywhere you get

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welcome back to "squawk box. let's bring you up to speed on the growing of the coronavirus the senate has approved that more than $8 billion emergency package. that bill heads now to president trump. he is expected to sign it. facebook and google are asking their employees in the san

francisco area to work from home to help minimize the spread there as the city and the state of california deal with a growing number of cases. apple is cracking down on apps related to the outbreak. saying the company is rejecting apps that aren't from recognized organizations like governments or hospitals and tit o's is warning customers about using its vodka to make homemade hand sanitizer. the company said per the cdc that its vodka does not meet the alcohol requirement. >> you have to have 60 or 70% of alcohol to kill a virus. i think tit o's is like 40%. >> what is isoproperl?

like 90% >> so you need 70% >> they tell you with any of the purell, you have to have like 60% to 70% >> that was the problem with kids putting their hands in their mouth before the purell dried, you didn't want the alcohol content going into their mouth. crazy stories. coming up, jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon has emergency heart surgery. futures are trading down stay tuned you are watching "squawk box." through the at&t network, edge-to-edge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. from using feedback to innovate...

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fur just waking up, wall street looking for another rough session today. the dow opening down close to 80

points showing you the 10-year. that's what has had people on edge now for quite some time we are way below 1%. .773 right now we have other wall street news this morning jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon is recovering this morning. wilford frost is here with us on set. good news is he's recovering >> that's right. he underwent emergency heart surgery. co-presidents and co-coos daniel smith and pinto wrote, good news, is that it was caught early. he's awake and alert

recovering well. it could have been much worse. not the first health scare for dimon who is soon to turn 64 he suffered from throat cancer during which time he still led the bank they've said, our board has been fully briefed. bottom line, thankfully that appears to be going well share downs down 3.5% clearly because of the yields you just referenced >> as we said earlier, we wish him a very speedily recoverer. he's a long-time friend of squawk he sometimes e-mails us during the show hope he's not watching right now and is just recovering

there will be questions on how long that is anticipated while he recovers. people will be talking about the succession >> thankfully that plan is not going to into action the bank knows who that leader will be. that would be one of daniel pinto or gordon smith. >> you think either one of them will take over the company >> yes >> it used to be marion lake who used to be the cfo >> i think it is two groups. either one of those. gordon leads consumer bank,

pinto leads investment bank. if you go further down the line and dimon finishes more of the five years he wanted to finish, more will come into play marian lake and jennifer who an then mary who is head of asset management >> i hope it is further away for jamie's sake costco reporting second quarter results. earnings and revenue topping estimates. on the conference call, saying there was an uptick in sales because of the coronavirus concerns >> we are getting deliveries daily but still not enough given increased levels it has been a little crazy in

terms of outside shopping and sales levels and not only in the united states. >> joining us now, managing director covering food and discount retailers let's start with the coronavirus stuff. if you've seen pictures, you know the lines outside and inside it has been crazy. they've been working to keep up and keep supplying what does that tell you about what is happening longer term. >> costco contributed 300 basis points to details related to coronavirus. if you look at their guidance or what people are modelling, i don't think people are accounting for coronavirus in their numbers. too unpredictable. >> let's talk about the numbers

themselves >> they were even with better than expected gross margin. >>what would you say about this >> the thing about costco that stays in the range i think you'll see that continue even when you account for the benefit in the final week of february for coronavirus based on what they said the same store sales would be more taken that point. >> when i look at that stock, i look at the membership rate as an annuity it's over a 90% renewal rate this pure play with warehouse

shopping even if people are running in because of coronavirus, people are engaging because of the story. i'm more comfortable we are not going to see that retraced with lower levels >> costcos roic hit 25% last year they are generating generous amounts of free cash flow. the initiatives are doing well dot com grew 28% up 17% when you pull out supposed coronavirus impact. what they are doing is working really well. we also think the u.s. business is moving well because of the

aging demographics as well >> the stock closed in and is a 12-month price target. >> that's right. we raised our target to 350. it was 330, we raised it in our note >> that's what you saw >> ahead of softbank's vision fund has been silenced at least publicly until now >> can you watch us on the go on the cnbc app we'll be right back. we're carvana, the company who invented

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welcome back to squawk box if you're just waking up, maybe go back to bed no, stay up. those are better levels than we had earlier. the nasdaq down 250 points and the s&p down 27 and change this week has been up down, up down big numbers. >> yesterday down almost 1,000 points and now we're down once again. upswings and down swings and now a down swing, down swing and it's actually a higher yield. >> do you know who we need to check in with?

it fell below 1% the next day. and we're almost at that range too. >> we often talk about soft bank's $100 vision fund but rarely hear from the man that runs it. just spoke with him after a rough few months alex joins us now to talk about it. >> hey, andrew. >> what happened >> so it was sort of a defense of the vision fund of himself. the main takeaway is almost a theoretical defense. >> head of the vision fund. >> he works for the head of soft bank ceo of soft bank this is a 14 year fund that most of the investments you stick around with for 6 to 8 years

the fund itself, the way that we invest, the mistakes will wash out first. that was his argument. the implosions will happen immediately. whether it's the founder or the business model, the reporting around we work which is the biggest implosion and he said look in any fund, 10 or 15 of these companies are going to wobble that's where we're going to see our bread and butter investments and start to make a real return for the fund that's his argument and his defense. now obviously there's a lot of acro economic positions that can effect them. >> they had a note out to its funds and it's companies saying the next year is going to be very, very difficult >> right exactly. >> did he talk about corona? >> he did. he said i'm worried about my

chinese investments in particularly and more broadly i'm worried about what this means for the asian economy and the triple down effects from that so he acknowledged that but he said we have a lot of strong companies in the portfolio he specifically pointed out grab he's likely to make a 3 to 4 return on grab they -- >> what's your analysis? in the end how are we all going to look at vision fund two or three years from now >> they had 90 plus investments. to say three went bad, i think that's a legitimate logical argument to say it's too early to cast judgment on this thing however he did put out a benchmark there. 18 to 25 months. not six years from now not 300 years from now like the soft bank 300 year plan and i think if you're going to --

look, soft bank put a lot of money into these companies at what might be the top of the market and if you're looking 18 to 24 months now that is risky i think. i have no idea like anybody else has no idea what's going to happen but i did think it was at least forceful and bold of him to say here's a time line, judge me on this. >> everybody should read this peace. it's fascinating stuff alex's full story is on cnbc.com. >> thanks. when we come back, the man that manages one of the world's largest hedge funds with nearly $120 billion ceo luke ellis will join us live we'll talk to him about what he is doing amid all the market volatility plus our squawk news maker of the morning. secretary of state mike pompeo he'll tell us where things stand with the coronavirusnd m auch more you're watching squawk box on cnbc and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate.

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that's the power of edge-to-edge intelligence. wewithout the planet cooler getting warmer. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. investors bracing for the worst as the number of coronavirus infections reaches the 100,000 mark we'll tell you what you need to noah head of the jobs report straight ahead.

>> jamie dimon recovering after emergency heart surgery. the latest on his recovery and what it means for the firm and the fed rate cut and what investors should expect when they meet as the second hour of squawk box begins right now. good morning and welcome back to squawk box on cnbc take a look at u.s. equity futures if you're just waking up it looks like another down day and perhaps a big down day red arrows across the screen dow looks close to 600 points right now. s&p 500 down 76 or 77 points and

nasdaq would open down and if it all feels like a blur, there's a good reason. monday and wednesday, as you might remember, dow gains of more than 1,000 points tuesday it dropped nearly 800 and yesterday it fell more than 900. there were other big days as well two hard hit sectors lost billions in market value that's the airline industry that saw $7.5 billion wiped out the cruise lines lost $8.5 billion the good news is if you want to, its available to you 13 million borrows could benefit due to the drop in rates but lots of questions on this friday morning. this is mike santoli for a closer look and how. >> appreciate it look at the s&p 500. i guess if we're lucky all of

this is turning into a little bit of a trading range everybody is watching a level from last friday the low from friday around 2850 or 2855. it basically falls right in and they're pointing this out and a big question is is this going to end up being a buffer zone are we going to soften it up too soon and we pull back and it's the information deficit causing this along with when the volatility gets toward 50 you tend to have them. but the defensive tone to the market has been pretty pronounced utilities up 3.3%. still year to date it includes transports down. the market is trying to administer the pain. anything with a stable sustainable yield it is buying however this is the 7 to 10 year against the high yield etf

but mostly treasuries are rallying so much and treasury yields are going down so much and yes you have definitely seen rolling over in high yield debt prices but it hasn't been as pronounced yet the question is is this stress point going to give way so that's where we are as we try to finish out this week >> all right thank you. we'll see you soon hopefully and we're ready to finish this week. i think we're still up are we not? barely >> i think that 2855 level might hold. >> nice. >> you have to keep an eye on it watch your midday when other country exchanges are closing but if you key in on the 2855 level on the s&p and that holds today that's a fltremendous tai wind and no one has any clue where this is going but at least they're staying solid and not dumping everything at our recent

lows which would be constructive to me and traders on wall. >> you have watched this a long time you're very young looking but you have watched this a long time do you ever ceelos that aren't tested >> december 2018. >> it's obviously a joke >> as far as we know. >> and the difference perhaps there is that was kind of -- it was the end of a three month process. it was the second flush lower. so arguably it's almost too soon. >> down to 12 or 13%. >> we keep making the point that that's a garden variety correction that we see every year >> it's a little bit too soon. within weeks or months and by

the way -- >> sometimes you fail them >> it just seems so systemic the way the selling is happening you'll catch a headline on the news wire and the market will respond to it and then a half hour later cascading lower or ripping higher and it just seems very technical very strategic. it's not the person sitting at home saying oh my gosh i have to exit stocks. it's massive funds hitting the market with program orders and i have never seen the type of program orders that we're seeing now both up and down it's quite astounding. >> flash crash was one of them but it's a one off you're having mini rallies and crashes but it just seems extremely systematic to me

it gives me hope that the market can start to regain it's footing again. >> i wouldn't deny that although i also think it was computers when you went four months without a 1% down day. >> it goes up and down but you're not hitting the stop orders so on the way up you're not hitting them. >> right now it's sweeping them out. >> i want to get to london right now. this is one of the largest investment firms in the world with $120 under management we want to get your thoughts on how to think about this market during what has turned into a global panic at the very, very least. what are you doing we have the biggest computer trading strategies so i'm aware of a number of things that we

were just talking about. the first trade is getting out of risk. and a lot of people came in with a lot of riskonce you start to worry about the virus impact on economic activity getting out of that risk quickly and equities made sense i think the question for here is either we decide the virus isn't going to cause any trouble and then governments and companies let us all get back to work and then we decide that actually we're going to be made to work from home, governments are going to shutdown schools which takes, call it 25% out of the labor force and then you really do have companies with really quite tough periods of earnings and then i think we have quite a significant leg down to go.

>> as somebody that's in the risk assessment business, which view are you handicapping? >> the short version is we got out of much of our equity risk as possible. there's a lot of money you can make in here and i think at the moment trying to be brave in he request itys feels the wrong thing and we'll see as people, the big question is not so much what they are. that's incredibly important but it's company reaction and government reaction and as you start to get people sent home,

like we can be as productive as almost any business when you send people home but with having 3 or 400 people working from home today and do i expect today to be as productive as a normal day? no, not at all and if people are working from home in significant numbers then that has a real impact on productive and that will lead us a long way down on markets. >> there's some investors down there and mom and pops down there saying i don't know if you want to buy the dip but they're s saying as equities continue to fall it sounds like you're not in that camp yet. >> no, while you have this heightened volatility. >> it needs to come down for this to feel like a basic market and trying to choose which

direction it goes and then something joe said earlier i suspect will test the lows again before we know where this mark is >> it's been a great strategy for years but it's not always the right answer is it based off of commodity trading accounts and how do you know how aggressive to be are you still selling stocks into a down market like the rest of the people that i'm seeing? >> i think that's where the old rules are the best rules you had a chance to liquidate risk where liquidity was good. you could get your risk cut down quite quickly.

if you look at the order book it's much lighter than normal. while if you want to trade significant size you're going to move futures a long way. so it's late to be that aguess i have -- aggressive in moving positions. >> is that simply in the nature of one of these high volatility, high stress phases of the market or is there something else going on that you think is impacting the liquidity of the market. maybe the broad spectrum that you layed out there in terms of the actual economy >> it's normal in these types of environments once you get the volatility offers go out.

one thing that we all have to recognize is the banks are all testing out their ability to work from different locations. people are starting to wonder whether they'll have to trade from home. if you have a case of the virus on your trading floor you can't then just move to another trading location you have to trade from home to separate people. that's starting to make some of the other market making type of liquidity providers more spooky than they would normally be. >> before we let you go, i know you talked about testing the lows is there a firewall here or a low, low at which point you say this is the line just so i know.

>> no is the short answer to that there's a point where the algorithms will start to push to the down side. and once we break the channel it's interesting to see how far down you could go. that's only going to come if there's economic news that means that people are -- that makes people worried about earnings. >> i don't want to scare the viewers. i want to understand if, in fact, your employees and employees around the country or around the world end up working from home and there is a three or four week period where people are not working the way they used to, what do you think the genuine economic damage is and how that plays itself out in the

stock market >> you get genuine economic damage and you start to see some businesses -- we got used to the idea that nobody gets in much trouble because you can finance businesses so cheaply with rate so low the reality is if you have no earnings every bit of debt looks expensive. we had people at home, our hong kong office has been working from home for six weeks now. they're about to get back into the office so i'm not sure if people start being sent home i'm not sure that we do think it's a four week type of thing it could be longer now as i say, we could all get comfortable that coming to work is fine, that the death rates outside of china are not that bad and then you start to think let's keep going as normal

>> i think that's exactly right. one of the things that there's no evidence for is, you know, the chinese have had people at home for six or seven weeks now and that's clearly had a big impact on the transmission of cases. should the case load stay down >> start opening next week in china so we'll see what happens. >> thank you for joining us this morning. >> it will be whether people send their kids back. >> right. >> hope we have the opportunity to speak to you again and hope things are looking up more when we do. >> thank you very much. >> the ten year treasury yield hitting an all time low this morning. you're following the markets but first we know there's something that you want toed adress to the audience good morning >> yes, it might be better to

start out with the markets last night we saw ten year notes and early this morning down briefly below 70 bond briefly below 30. they have bounced back and we'll have the data coming out at 8:30 eastern on the jobs report but i have something i want to say. yesterday during a segment on the exchange i said maybe it would be a good idea to expose everybody to the coronavirus, maybe it would be better off for the economy or the global economy or the markets in general. it was the dumbest most ignorant stupid thing anybody could have ever said. what was in my mind at the time when i was young and if you got measles, chicken pox, mumps, my parents and other parents would not only put family together sometimes they would bring other students together to expediate the process.

it was a stupid thing to say and it's not appropriate in this instance and we are resilient both in the united states and in the globe and that resilience will get us through. the idea of something so absurd, i just apologize and i apologize to everybody on the segment and all of my peers at cnbc. we will get through this we are resilient but even if one life is affected, i do apologize for my insesitivity. >> we know what's really important. >> oil and gas prices in the

united states and wall street and i spoke to exxon's chief executive. things like the company's plans to try global economic slowing because of the coronavirus >> what we're trying to do all around the world and the economies and that oil and try to transition to a less carbon intensive forms of energy we have a very important role to play and as young people come to the company they learn that. they're proud of the role they have in terms of helping meet the needs of society. >> you also rolled out your goals in terms of climate change and trying to cut emissions. have you spoken with the administration which has rolled

back regular ytions that have bn in place. >> we have been advocating to keep methane regulations in place. we just recently put out a frame work for methane regulation. and and 25% so our objective as a company is to be the most responsible operator >> the same standard. >> we think it's reasonable the gav government has a role and makin sure they're balanced is what we advocated for. >> he said something about he's

not sure what humans can do to try to combat climate change do you agree with that or would you argue the other side. >> rex was working on this when we continue to work on that. hyd hydrocarbon and commercial transportation, power generation and industrial sectors and we're working on technology to help close the gap. carbon capture and storage to use and we're looking at bio fuels which are energy dense

that can replace diesel so there's a lot of work that we're doing. and will require technology advancement and break through and ultimately get to the stage where we can reach society's aspiration of eliminating co2 emissions. >> i know that exxon mobil i believe has the 10th largest travel budget of all the companies that we follow out there. have you guys been cutting back on travel as a result of what we're hearing? >> we have we have actually you think about ebol and sars and these are all things that our corporations had to deal with at different times. so we find ourselves in a situation like we do now with the co rrronavirus. it means folks moving into their

homes and working remotely we geared up our work force and they can do that effectively reduce the number of people coming into our facilities we implemented that early on. >> how long ago? >> when it first came out. >> we set the esgs up and what happens is as we find that coronavirus breaking out in different locals we'll stand that system up we have about 1,500 employees in china. about 750 in italy another 125 or so in korea and south korea so all of those have been put in place. >> has it effected your operations alabama all >> it hasn't, our customers have pulled back. that means less product deman. so there's been slow downs i would say but we're actually seeing that pick back up again.

>> i know that you're not a barologist or economist for that matter but your gut feel as a ceo that watches the numbers on a daily basis, what's your best guess about what happens to the global economy we saw the dip initially in china. we're starting to see the rebound. my expectation is in those locals where you see that rebound. >> is it coronavirus or something else >> we stay on top of the coronavirus and keep our employees safe and then making sure that we manage through the short-term turbulence and build the capacity for earnings and cash

flow growth. >> you agree with the idea that there's undervaluation things have been undervalued these days >> if you look, i agree with that and also if you look at some external data, the iea put something out that shows the industry is not investing at the rate it needs to to meet the demand for energy in the future irrespective of the scenario that you plan for. >> again, exxon mobil has said that they would be investing cap exof somewhere between 30 and $35 billion over the next several years. every year annually they'll be doing that he said you can anticipate that it will be at the lower end of that range this time around. the company does have a yield of almost 7% and in order to pay that dividend with oil prices at these levels, something is probably going to have to give if oil stays at these levels, it sounded to me like he was saying it would be capexth that would e

held back. and they're underwater. >> when you look back and you look at the companies, it was iconic all of these companies make a ton of sense but we're in this investing phase where anything with any sort of harmful carbon footprint, the stock is down year to date and everything has been underperforming for the last five years. >> can't live without this stuff. >> he's saying we're not going to -- we're going to put it in our business plan that we're going to carbon zero and it's going to be on paper and it's actually going to happen when the entire global economy runs on fossil fuel it's not going to happen

jamie dimon had emergency heart surgery yesterday. we'll discuss how he is doing. his recovery i hope he is watching. i hope he's back doing what he does much more when we return >> time now for today's after lack trivia question what is the most common counterfeit denomination in the u.s. the answer when cnbc squawk box continues. so we're answering their questions. aflac is auto insurance, right? no. uh uh. is it homeowner's insurance? no... uhuhuhuh! is it duck insurance? nope. ahhh! do they pay me money directly when i get sick or injured? yeah. aflac! you got it. you know aflac! boom! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. get to know us at... aflac dot com.

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now the answer, today's after lack trivia question and in the u.s., the answer, the $20 bill >> welcome back to squawk box this morning news breaking late yesterday afternoon. jp morgan ceo jamie dimon undergoing emergency heart surgery. he's said to be awake and alert recovering well. we wish him well we want to bring in someone that knows him well it was a surprise obviously.

the good news was that he woke up, went to the hospital on his own and as we said appears to be on the mend but of course now questions about who is going to ultimately run this firm during this period and who is going to run this firm in the future. >> i'm so glad that we're taking a look at celebrating jamie right now. as becky had said earlier this morning how fantastic it with was that he knows his body so well that he saw some tell tell signs of distress and took himself into the hospital for early treatment of this aorta e dissection was the make and break and the early treatment was important. there's nobody like him out there. sure they're great overarching visionaries but jamie dimon is

the j.p. morgan of this millineum. policy options is brilliant and he's built very strong bench strength repeatedly. and it's remarkable so the two that apparently lined up and are there in a custodial way seeing things through are also ready should there be a more formal succession i think he is superb i know gordon smith and he's just as eloquent and witty >> if you talked to jamie and

you know him, i don't think -- there's never any down time for his mind you would never have crickets and do you know what he's thinking about a lot of the time is risks in the world and how you run a business. >> but he is also the most detailed person i know >> he cares about what's happening at some branch on 7 27b street and broadway. that's to me what is amazing about the way he operates. >> jack welch could go macro, micro and jamie can do that too and it's really remarkable that he's been through these repeatedly before he was an official ceo, he's the guy that pulled wall street together for the aftermath of long-term and he

saw the risk issues in a very global way and he told everybody we're spending our vacation over pizza boxes unwinding leverage in our balance sheet and that's why jp morgan was in the best situation going to the prices a year and year and a half later >> you always feel like things are under control when things start to tell you here's how we're seeing and here's how we're planning for it. you just feel like he always has it under control you're right he was his own harshest critic the senate kept asking him for advice on government finance he is so calming so thorough. there was one point where ken louis was testifying and maxine

waters didn't state something too clearly and jamie took over and said congresswoman i think putting it in our language and phrased the question much better and said if you hold us up to that yardstick we're not doing so well. we ourselves at jp morgan chase and won everybody over. >> what's that about you have to be so obnoxious telling people the truth. >> something you take to heart. >> >> radical transparency. >> and jamie has been doing that -- knowing him, he has been doing that long before dalio figured it out. >> with his own critique of things i have said over the years. >> i was thinking of that. >> i'm aware of that. >> it's helpful. is it not helpful? but was it not helpful >> it's a learning experience for me always.

real quick -- >> one thing i want to mention is remarkable -- >> one of the questions though that is being asked this morning is succession planning at that company and what j.p. morgan looks like in an era after jamie dimon. you talk about people all over wall street that have worked under him. who do you think would take over that company and what would it look like? >> i think gordon smith all dressed up ready to go but you look at her and half of the management committee are women and it's remarkable. he is dressed up ready and in near term and longer term a lot of people would put their bets on her she is a prior cfo and head of consumer lending but it's just incredible the cross trading in

here >> i do hope jamie is watching and we wish him a very speedy recovery. >> we have a ceo that loves the sound of his own voice and he spoke for about six minutes. and it's everything that we just said do you remember? >> i don't right this second. >> take a quick look at futures right now because we're in the red in a very big way. we're back in a moment legendary terrain in telluride,

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welcome back the consumer is the backbone of the american economy and now there's questions about how the coronavirus is changing spending. >> the effects of the coronavirus have yet to show up in the economic data and it's not a question of if but where and when it shows up they're hyperfocused on the potential effects of the consumer and likely conducted too early to reveal any effects of the virus. even the timeliest indicator at the bottom of the screen hasn't shown above. goldman sachs this week

introducing it's coronavirus consumer activity tracker that follows movie ticket sales and hotel occupancy rate and sporting event attendance. it remains at a high level similarly it's also tracking prices for hotels, air fares and theater tickets. there has been a decline in theater ticket prices that would be expected to decline with falling demand but even this week old data may be too old after increase rising and cancelled across the nation this week over 40% of consumer spend as good linked to social situations large government stimulus and bailout plans to offset the losses a few other places, not in this one but in future job reports,

one of the first places would be self-employed. not permanent employees of corporations and then transportation, leisure, hospitality you have students not coming back from other places. >> what do you mean? >> for example from china. >> okay. >> may not have come back or if they're here depending upon where they're from. >> you know rutgers earlier in the week cancelled all of their study abroad programs. >> so did my son's school. they cancelled a big trip to japan and other things that were happening. looking for a half a point is what all the economists say. >> do you hear anything unorthodox about a way to attack this from the fed? is there anything that you can

think of that they would do to that would catch the market off guard? >> not the fed i have for several weeks now been urging the government to think about this like a large natural disaster to make relief money available to businesses that don't have insurance for that and the fiscal side stepping up with a trillion dollar plan would be something that would get the markets attention much more than a 50 basis point rate cut. what i find incredible is this is hitting everyone by surprise. you'd think most places would have a plan. >> my son that was studying government policy, if i was to give you a hypothetical scenario, give me back a scenario of what would happen if

there was a pandemic you would think he would write the paper saying i think the thing we want to look at is what happens if a virus comes from china. maybe even a 50 basis point rate cut now built in for the march meeting still. >> thank you, steve. >> thank you, steve, for more on the coronavirus impact on the market, let's bring in our guest, the chief economic adviser and we keep checking back with you on your original warning about this not being completely normal in terms of business as aushl and maybe d--l we're going to retest some of the lows maybe we're doing it already you still think at this point

that there may be more work going on than on rebounding? >> this is after you simplify all of the complexity. one is the economic ofsudden stops. when activity comes to a halt. two the economics of fear when you amply identify all of this through human reaction and third what's going to happen to the trust we had in the central bank anchor and the central bank backstop but be careful if you're a long only investor at this point before you go and pile on more

risk >> we have gone back and forth in your long career did you ever give credence to technical analysis or do you try to base things on fundamentals >> oh, i absolutely do i said this is going to be extremely volatile if you're a day trader you'll have fun this week there's a massive tug of war going on in technicals there's technical levels being breached mohammed, it's steve here. you said you'll have opportunities in distressed debt let's explore opportunities in distress debt. that means defaults. it's not like i want to pile on the bad news that's out there but you did write a column the other day about the

possibilities of potential fall out in the fixed income market talk us through the possibilities and the probabilities. >> for a long time the right thing to do was to change the capital structure by putting on more debt. so we have a massive overlay of triple b minus companies that are hanging over the high yield market we are looking at a major economic slow down that's going to increase credit risk that's going to increase downgrades we're going to have downgraded fallen angels coming through high yield it's the hongest rung of investment grade. >> that's correct. so you mean there's a ton of stuff here that if things change they cross the line. they breach the barrier and become junk.

i'm sorry to interrupt but i want everybody to understand that yes and it's limited so if you're an airline or an energy company and you're looking to refinance your debt it's going to be more difficult and there's opportunity to get it securitized and this will be a golden opportunity for investors. >> when you see this selling taking place through the systems i'm never seeing buying of value stocks anymore is value dead for all apparent purchases? they buy tech again but we're looking at these value names is it because the chemical names and energy names are under the umbrella of this outsized esg focal point for the market

and you just have to respect that. >> i want to come back to this idea of finding a bottom i don't think that you find the bottom until you understand what's going to happen to the capital structure of some of the companies. it's going to be smart money that's going to wait for a better deal and that could happen in a default or distress and that's when that clarity comes through. strong hands may be on the sidelines waiting for a better deal. >> and if i can add something. >> yeah. go ahead let's not urge the central banks to cut rates for the sake of cutting rates. that's a very, very blunt instrument let's urge the central banks to look at the functioning of markets and focus on where there

is liquidity distress because the last thing we want is a feedpack look from disrupted markets to the economy. >> so rather than use -- >> go ahead. >> rather than use a blunt instrument, they should be really laser focused. >> i want to point out the ten year yield was just at .739%. that continues to fall and put additional pressure on the dow that's now down by over 700 points this morning. mohammed, thank you. great to see you. >> coming up, an update on the coronavirus outbreak at the top of the hour, secretary of state mike pompeo joins squawk box we'll be right back. ♪ you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade,

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>> is the united states prepared >> if you look at the analysis

of preparedness of countries around the world, johns hopkins and economists looked at in 192 countries we ranked first. the response has been strong but we have not been anywhere near as prepared as we could have and should have been. >> what's the biggest problems you have seen? >> well, the underlying problem is we have been in the cycle of panic and negligent that every country has been in historically after 911 we created a big fund for emergency preparedness and we haven't had the resources and we have seen the result of that in the difficult start with the testing. >> let's talk about what you have seen. we have been told not to wear masks. why do masks not work? why do people that are not health care workers not on the front lines of this should not be using them?

>> the evidence is not strong at all that masks product you in the public they do protect health care werers if you yourself have a respiratory infection you can avoid spreading it to others by wearing a mask but the kind of masks that you hear about being hoarded they should be left for the medical professionals. exposure to infection is part of our job but we want to have the right equipment so we're protected. so i could discourage people from wearing masks in public unless they themselves have an infection. >> i'll start with you from this what makes you feel good about our stance and what worries you? >> one thing that makes me feel good is that the public health professionals at the cdc and local public health departments are mission driven individuals that want to do the right thing and i'd say we should give them our huge support in whatever way possible we should listen to them and go

to reputable sites for information and we should not panic and go to social media sites that might not have good information. and and they're sharing information at a pace that's not possible >> how about you >> i would agree and the go-to place is www.cdc.gov you need to go there they are up to date with current practical information on all sorts of issues. i also feel good about the fact that we're off to the fastest start for a new virus in vaccine development. that's critical. we have to support that. what concerns me is that this is a virus that's only two months

old. so we need to pray for the best but plan for the worst. >> thank you we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> coming up, don't miss our squawk news maker. secretary of state mike pompeo he will join us after the break next just over an hour until the february jobs report the futures are near session lows down almost 800 squawk box coming right back w'g about, right karen? huh? you wanna let yourself woah, but you can't do it here. or here. it hurts more when you fight it. but totally cool here. woah! and here. woaaaahh! -oh yeah. woah, kid. she gets it. [ roars ] woah!! get it all out. so when you're ready to let yourself woah, there's only one place to go. universal, baby! supporting innovative companies that will shape tomorrow and building workforce development and tuition-free college programs

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welcome back good morning, we are live from

the nasdaq market site in times square take a look at the u.s. equity futures at this hour and this is all because of the action in the treasury market. take a look right now and check out the ten year for the first time earlier this week we saw the ten year yield fall below 1%. that was a historic low. this morning we're looking at the ten year yielding 742% the advisory for china is a level 4. americans should not travel there. this comes as the number of

infections in the united states has topped 200 with 12 deaths. joining us with more on the u.s. response to the virus is secretary of state mike pompeo it's great to have you especially in studio here. >> great to be with you. >> the testing kits, that seems to be pair mouramount and we're looking at lofty numbers, goals that we were told that we would hit and we're now not going to hit. what's the hold up and can we really address this without many many more testing kits >> i have seen the work that's going on and they're trying to get the private sector ramped up so we can do all the testing that is needed we have taken this incredibly seriously. we'll continue to do that. the testing kits are one element to reduce risking. >> south korea is testing hundreds of thousands of people. it wasn't the original -- i

don't know if you're the person to ask but it was the original reagent from the cdc that they didn't realize was -- didn't work properly or -- >> i'm not the right person to ask. i haven't been involved. >> but you could see that's something we have to -- >> we have to get it right. >> here's something that you might be abled to address and i'm hering from eunice, the restaurants, there's people in restaurants and it almost looks like china had success in dealing with this and capping it we would hope that could happen in other countries around the world including the united states but we're told that we don't have the same type of capability to quarentine people because we're not, you know, as authoritarian as the chinese government, as the communist party. could we have a similar success here with our civil libber terts >> i'm confident that we'll

handle it better than any nation in the world i'm happy to compliment the chinese government today but the information that we got at the front end of this thing wasn't perfect and lead us now to a place where much of the challenge we face today has put us behind the curve and that's not the right -- that's not the way infectious disease doctors tell me it should work that's not the way america works with the sharing of the information that needs to take place. it has proven incredibly frustrating to work to get our hands around the data set which will ultimately be the solution to getting the vaccine and attacking this risk. >> the chinese government is now pushing back and eunice has been reporting some of what they put in the state run media where they say that it's not clear that this even came from china at this point.

don't take mike pompeo's word for it we have high confidence that we know where this began and we have high confidence too that there was information that could have been made available more quickly and data that could have been provided and shared among health professionals across the world. most unfortunate. >> let me ask you about travel though there was a producer that took to twitter yesterday that had flown in from italy, gone through customs at jfk and said she was not asked at all about her medical situation or whether she had been exposed to the vie vus or anythi -- virus or anything like that. what type of confidence should we have when you hear reports like that? she had been coming from the epicenter of this but i think people are looking to try to understand what travel pans per say. >> i would urge that it's about

a particular instance but look at the actions that we're taking so italy is something that we handled in a nuisanced way and pockets of italy where there's real challenges other places and less so and we're trying to get the state department's role there and the travel advisory is for american citizens traveling there to get the level right and they're trying to get right folks coming back not just from milan or from naples but from all starparts of the world to me sure that we have the testing right and the restrictions right. we don't want to get this wrong in ways disconnected from the science and the reality. so we work every day to make sure that all across the government and our cdc and health care professionals working all across the world to share information to reduce risk and begin the important work on the vaccine as well.

>> we heard a story yesterday, all of these were anectdotes apparently everybody on the plane has now been asked to quarentine themselves. how long do they go on should schools get shut if people on that plane have children it becomes very complicated very quickly. >> it does here's what i would urge all of your viewers go to cdc.gov and go to the sites where the best data available to the hardest working people in the world in infectious disease live and work they'll make very clear what the u.s. governments recommendations are and that is the place to go. a lot of websites are saying a lot of things with a lot of anecdotes.

or you want to have confidence in this. >> i watched the u.s. governments response to this since the day the state department was asked to go rescue americans to the center and the heartbeat of where this began and the excellence of our team our medical professionals, my team, my diplomats that rescued hundreds of americans you spend a lot of time with the cdc. >> i do. i wash my hands. i take all the precautions i'm behaving the way that the cdc is asking every american and everybody around the world to behave. >> i'm happy to fist bump. i told my son last night

that's what we did. >> the town hall president had last night he stayed after and addressed how much he doesn't like shaking hands his whole life. >> he never has. >> and he shook, he said i'll shake my hand anybody that wants to shake my hand we shook hands. >> we did shook hands. >> we didn't hug did we? no because i'm mad at you for wichita state. for that recommendation. >> i watched the game last night. i'm working my way through it. >> there's a few other things that you're dealing with i want to ask you is secretary azar, is she still a point man he was pulled from appearances. >> he's the person that the state department primarily interacts with we send a woman named deborah burks that works for me at the state department and working on global health issues for most of her life

what do you hear from the heads of state or from your counter parts in other countries right now. >> they are very worried about the transmission across the border and the boundaries. and try to help these countries with supplies as well to make sure that they had supply chains that they could access we have seen places where every nation starts to care about their own citizens too

how do you dealwith that where there's mass shortages everywhere i mean every country wants to help but they also want to protect their own citizens too. >> every leader has a first responsibility to take care of their citizens of their own country but when you have a complex situation it's often the case where it has the reflective benefit of helping people in your own country too so we watch supply chains closely and we're working to fill that kcapacity in the unitd states to the extent that you're worried about what could happen in their economies, what do you worry most about because investors are trying to game out how this place itself out and where the risks lie. >> you look to china with a billion plus people and enormous

economic connectivity. >> do you worry about the banking system >> i worry about banking systems in lots of places around the world. but i watch how we think about risk to the financial system we get the lowest unemployment rate this was an economy in a good place. $47 barrel americans will benefit from lower gasoline prices so there are changes that will take place but it's to work and take down risk and be transparent so that decision makers have data sets upon which they can act and not basing their decisions on an anec anecdote. >> the president got quite a bit of applause after answering the taliban question it's a tough one for the average

american to get his head around that we're in some type of -- the confrontation or military has stepped up over the last week and a half after we got closer apparently to some type of deal. after 20 years we just have to bring our guys home. i understand he actually talked to the head of the taliban for the first time ever. >> he spoke to me. first mission set was to reduce the risk and cost to the united states of america. we have 13,000 young men and women that are there you know them, fifth, fourth, tour in afghanistan. it's time to reduce the risk we spend 25 or $30 billion a year that's a lot of money. the second mission set was to make sure that america is never attacked from afghanistan today so this is what we have been working on so an important component of that is getting all the parties in afghanistan and that includes bad actors

to begin to have a political resolution to this country they're still lower than they have been in the last five or six years. they made clear their expectations that their folks are going to stop fighting we see the path forward and in the end the afghan people are going to have to make their decision. >> it's a cavity question. there's reports that he's been sidelined by the president. >> you heard me ask that, right? >> i didn't hear you ask that. i completely apologize. >> and i denied that there's any -- >> i completely missed it. >> he said that's who actually interacts with those. >> every once in awhile you ask a really good question and i completely missed it. >> you miss them all. >> this is why i love being on your show. >> anyway, appreciate it. >> thank you all.

>> thank you. >> coming up, when we return the big number breaking jobs news the labor department february employment report is due in a couple of minutes. how the coronavirus could impact the u.s. jobs picture. that company cut it's china sales forecast due to the outbreak and also expects same store sales to drop by 50% in china for the second quarter that stock off almost 3% right now. u' wchg ua r yoreatinsqwkight here on cnbc

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welcome back we are in the red on this friday morning ahead of the jobs number we open down close to 800 points on the dow all on additional fears about the coronavirus as we head into this weekend and we'll have the jobs number for you in a little bit. >> exxon mobil holding it's

annual investor day yesterday at the stock exchange i spoke with the ceo about the company's plan to contend with the global economic slow down because of the spread of the coronavirus. >> we have a pretty robust protocol in place that we exercise when we find ourselves in a situation like we are now with the coronavirus we executed that early on which means cutting back discretionary travel and folks moving into their homes and working remotely we have geared up or work force to do that effectively reduced the number of people coming into our facilities so we implemented that early on. >> how long ago? >> when it first came out. >> we have about 1,500 employees in china about 750 in italy another 125 or so in korea, south korea and so i'm pleased to say we have not had any employees effected by the

coronavirus. >> we do some of our customers particularly in china pulled back >> we're expecting to have a dip and see that expand around the world. >> we saw the dip in china we're starting to see the rebound. my expectation is in those locals where you see that contagion spread that we'll see that dip and then we'll see a fairly quick rebound. jp morgan ran a number that said they'd have to see it and pay

that off and this could be a temporary decline for those numbers but darren woods said that yes they will be paying that dividend and looks like it sounded to me that they would be doing things to cut cap exwhich is supposed to be between 30 and $33 billion this year. take a look at wti right now down another 4% this morning to 4406 you can watch more of that interview on cnbc.com. >> coming up -- i forgot all about that nine minutes we're going to get to the employment report. >> february jobs report. wall street reaction and then at 9:30 eastern time don't miss a first on cnbc interview with national economic counsel 'srector larry kudlow. he a goldman sachs guy they don't look anything alike squawk box will be right back.

coming up a final countdown. and also bring you the number of the morning. that's coming next ay tuned you're watching squawk box right here on cnbc when it comes to your customers' expectations,

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>> economists expecting 175,000 physicians to nonfarm payrolls that's the number to beat and then the unemployment rate, the

expectation ticking down slightly to 3.5% of course all of this in the rear-view mirror and more ahead of strategy for black rock's global investment team and the professor at the harvard kennedy school and the counsel of economic advisers who is pushing hard for a physical stimulus plan and then our own steve and rick are standing by. >> i think you're right that the jobs number is interesting this is going to be a pretty decent payroll report.

and be less interested in what the data says. 350 billion but scale down better than expected. >> steve thinks it should be three times that size. >> i'm up for a trillion dollars for conditional stimulus and it's conditional upon coming out. it's bigger than the worse case scenarios. >> we have to get to elon. >> i don't have a number. >> you don't have a number today. >> i'm too busy coffvering more important issues. >> do you have a number? >> 201,000

a little bit above 200 but i agree with the panel it's nice to know the foundation that we have but it's not going to give us a lot of information for the markets today. >> it is now officially time for the february jobs report elon is standing by in washington and she has the number >> 273,000 rose by 273,000 jobs in february well above expectations. the unemployment rate dipped back down from 6.3% to 3.5% in february average hourly earnings rose to $28.52 that's a .3% increase and 3% increase year over year. visions also looked very strong. december's number was revised upward by 37,000 jobs from 147,000 to 184,000

january's number also up this time by 48,000 going from 225,000 jobs to 273,000 jobs all told that's 85,000 more jobs that hn previously been reported and puts the three month moving average at 243,000 jobs. the health care sector lead those gains with 57,000 jobs in february restaurants and bars added 53,000 jobs and government employment increased by 45,000 that's due to an additional 16,000 jobs in state education as well as 7,000 workers who were hired for census. now a few sectors did see job declines still including retail which fell by 7,000 and transportation that fell by 4,000 jobs the leading participation rate was unchanged at 63.4% that broadest measure of unemployment, that ticked up to 7% and guys, the labor department says there was no sign of any impact from the coronavirus in these numbers

back over to you. >> okay. want to get some more reaction from our job panel steve. what's your first takeaway here? >> it's a very good number the economy was strong going into this and he is right, we want to know where we were you take a half point and it's not the best estimate. the consensus estimate i think among the economy. and i'd much rather take it at 2, 2.5%. and the employer in this market where it's been tough to find people and the first thing that you would do i believe would be to delay hiring. that's the first thing i'd look for for it to show up here in the transportation area in leisure hospitality. that's something that we'll have to watch

as well as at the end of the month the jobs report. >> how much is this going to make you feel better about anything >> the economic data looked just fine before we started to get concerned about the impacts of the coronavirus, one thing is what happens in thor is visz econo - in the service economy and in terms of consumer spending so we're starting from a strong point and expect things to get softer but catastrophic is not in the cards the other group says this is going to be much worse than any of us believe. do you think this gives any credence to the group that says

there has been a giant overreaction or it's just too old to have factored into the equation. >> it's a little too old and it's too soon to tell. >> we shouldn't say see -- there's a lot of people. >> you can see that at some point. but just so you know, february 12th, it's the weekending february 12th. i think we started to freak out about this and maybe what we're doing. >> that's what we don't know. >> people said see i told you so i see it on twitter all the time. >> the number of times. >> didn't show up in the jobless claims number. i would have thought that was the weekending february 29th >> use this as evidence that it's all at your own risk. >> be available for that possibility. >> and the market isn't moving at all. >> not budging. >> 750 to minus 200. >> it interesting the trade cap

numbers. did you get a chance to look at those? the trade gap falling could be a sign of declining imports. did you get to see it rick >> yes it was minus 45.3 billion and in the rear-view mirror we had it last month so it is about a billion and a half below the expectations on this strading floor and as you pointed out it's hard to get gps on any of these numbers. i was shocked that yesterday's initial jobless claims didn't have a more reflective move of the current environment and as for today's report there's three areas that we have to hit hard that was nice. .1 is worth a lot of jobs

how we walk away from this, maybe the employment doesn't get as effective as we think but there maybe many other areas that we don't suspect would be that maybe it's just very hard to find it >> you have never met a stimulus package that you didn't like >> i thought you were so worried about overheating already but do you have projects at least already this time or cash for clunkers what do you want to do exactly i think wage growth is a bit disappointing and we should be able to do better than that. and i want to do something like

president bush did in 2008 he sent the checks out and we were better off for its. we should prepare to expand it we want to be comprehensive about the approach money for states money to extend unemployment it does take a few months to get out there. >>but much more interested in helping out big businesses perhaps in the way during the financial crisis there was an argument for bailing out the

auto industry. their balance sheets appear to be in good shape at the moment that's an area on extending unemployment insurance jason's idea i'm a little reluctant on he has this idea of sending everybody a check. >> send everybody a check. >> you should read his op-ed in the wall street journal today which is the beginning of a discussion we're going to have to have as a nation. i'm getting a lot of hate mail but it comes down to this. what is the role of the government >> if you want to get a trillion dollars. >> it comes down to this and i'm sure my good friend has different ideas about this but is the role of government which i believe it is, let the market function the way the market is going to function at extraordinary times when the government has the ability to stop real economic pain from happening it should do so.

that's my opinion of the way the world ought to work. >> but also just so we're clear believe that when things are good you need to step back and you need to figure out a way to raise enough money. >> here's the answer to that. >> at .07% the bond market is saying thank you sir may i have another. another trillion you could make an argument that all you need to do is get a return to the u.s. economy of greater than 0.7% nominal and whatever you spend -- >> i couldn't agree with you more payroll tax cut does exactly

what we're talking about i'm with you. >> i'm interested in this idea >> it takes awhile. >> you just get a little bit in each paycheck and a lot of that money that you're not going to get until the end of the year. >> you are correct but anticipation gives hope and these are times where we don't know how things are going to turn out in terms of the government being the transmission more directly of the funds. that's where i have my disagreements. how do you design a program that looks like a fema program for a hurricane to help small business that has disruptions because of this you were in government. >> i was trying to think about that in the context of my organizationop-ed. i agree with you absent financial markets freezing up. small businesses, i'm more

worried about but i am not enamored of most of the credit programs in 2009 and 2010 and there's none of those that i want to reprise for small businesses right now. >> you didn't think they worked? >> i'd love people to keep thinking about it but i'm not positive there's a great solution there cash is an uninspired idea but you want to scale something up you want to make something large. you can make that as large and you're not going to make that much money and you're borrowing negative rate for the federal government. >> i was just saying they're so front and center and in the front of our minds we would have seen this and once again just said what, it's just to stay at -- to be this strong at this point and i mean, three years ago these kinds of numbers were supposed to not be happening

and i just think we would be in a totally different environment right now. i kind of wish -- i mean, i'm kind of sad that you have such a great job number and can't enjoy it. >> can't secelebrate it. >> but the bigger question from an equity market perspective is some companies come out and start to change their guidance a little bit and you look at how analysts have been reacting to the news and they have done very little to take down their full year numbers they're taking some of the chips out of the first quarter and putting them in the second -- >> although the stocks, like, what was the company yesterday that gave it's earnings guidance big numbers down and they haven't taken the numbers down and all of these earnings estimat estimates. >> it's the equity market too which is with the ten year at the levels that it is, you know,

the cross asset valuations have actually changed even if you take down your earnings number at this point, you should make the assumption and expect that the forward multiple on the equity market on risk assets can be significantly higher we have all of these push and pulls and i would suggest that until we have a little bit more clarity here the market is not going to care about the data. >> did he e-mail you >> no, what did he say >> it's an interesting thought he says that definitely asymmetric at this point a good number does absolutely nothing for us today he says if nothing else it's at least relief we didn't get a really disappointing number today which could have been in the face of current fears could have been much worse.

some percentage probability works out on the forecast. some percentage probability that the u.s. health care system and whatever thinking took place before this episode will be able to come up with a vaccine. it's entirely possible i don't know what probability to place on it. >> we talked about terminal pricing for years. >> everything may workout in terms of the health risk and it might be too late already for everything else. restaurants and airlines.

>> that's right. but look -- >> hotels, international travel. >> we should have done this a long time ago, joe i feel like there should have been a break the glass in case of epidemic plan out there but the good news i think is its something that if you read in the wall street journal, epidemic -- economists and epidemilogists have been talking about a long time how to live with this in a world where we're going to be very interconnected and there's a possibility of this happening. >> we had a doctor on earlier today though no relation but he said look the problem is they created this huge fund for emergencies just like this. and right here in the middle of the crisis and we step up and get everything ready when it goes away we forget. >> there's some other economic principle that we never take back the re -- what we do what is that >> that is the rick s arantelli

co corelary. we disagree on this but he is right to be concerned i think. for example i remember thinking the fed should have taken back that rate cut relatively quickly. i remember calling after -- and i think i was wrong about this three or four years into their financial crisis thinking that the fed could have done a couple of adjustments that were simply taking it back and saying they would stay on hold but that's not part of the way the fed tends to work. >> rick, can you talk a little bit about what we have seen with the ten year today that rate, to yield continues to fall and it's gotten -- it's gotten a little -- >> about a week ago i said i wouldn't be shocked when it was right around 125 to 130. i mean, it's amazing how fast it's falling

i wouldn't be shocked to see 1% and i'm not shocked to see where it is now. and it isn't bouncing. but i think in the final analysis what's going to happen with interest rates is that you need that capitulation which is really scary because if this isn't capitulation, what is? but i think that there's no safety really here and i know that you have expressed that sentiment. that the safety here can diminish in the blink of an eye and what's really big people is that the dollar index has swooned. and if you look at a euro with a 115 handle or dollar yen with a 105 handle and you think why would money be propping up those currencies, they don't have anything better with regard to how they're dealing with many of the issues or the economy, it's dollar avoidance and that's a big issue especially against the

yen at this point. >> i thought you were going to say higher there rick and you didn't i wait for that. >> prices. prices prices are going to go higher. >> there it is >> higher. fi furman i feel like i need more from you. we got you here. i want more from you. >> just overall. >> are you -- are you washing your hands ten times a day have you touched your face since you have been on the air today how do you view this right now seriously? >> look. this is hard to know any predictions of a recession, all of those are wrong so what do you do when you don't know? one of the things that you do is you look at things like interest rates and ask how cheap is it

for the federal government to borrow right now that relays more on face to face in terms of the impact on our economy. clearly we weren't as prepared for this as we should have been. we can sort out the blame later. there's a lot we need to do on the health side button economic side i think the main thing that we need to do is just be really, really humble it's not like interest rates to zero

>> i was about to make a comment and it touched my face and communication from the government and we also moved wef the left tail and this helps companies a little bit but we haven't removed all of the left tail and steve you mentioned a moment ago there is the possibility we come out of this a little bit beter than some of the worst fears, maybe there is a right tail i would suggest it's relatively small. we started this with basically full-on risk positions in an environment people were expecting little bumps in the road and everyone was focused on other things the left tail is still there even if we reduced it a little bit. i suggest the next payroll report or the next corporate spending report or capex investment will look weaker. we know that it's just the duration we have to focus on at this point. >> we have so many data points

weaker, same-store, everything >> one of the interesting things i think from this report, though, is that we had decent leisure and hospitality hiring and it's hard to see how that doesn't reverse over the next month. >> makes me a little more nervous. because it's the kind of thing they may need to snap back >> right >> jason, rick, kate, ken, stick around, appreciate it. >> all right illuminating, anyway under an hour until the opening bell on wall street. dominic chu has the stocks down 800. a symmetric, a bad number who knows where we'd be. >> absolutely. i've been listening to the entire conversation since a little before 8:30 one of the things we're looking in the markets right now hits on some of the themes you spoke about, over the course of the last one, three, five months there has been no real losing

trade. stocks went to record highs, gold prices were rising, treasury prices were rising. wasn't until the last two weeks where we saw a divergence happening and for stockholders that happened to the equity market over the course of just the one-month period, first of all every sector in the s&p is lower but for the outperformers, real estate, utilities versus the s&p 500, the bounces that we saw in the markets over the last few trading weeks have all been in utilities, staples and real estate that tells you something about the market look at the underperformers here people do not want any part of financials or energy in this market that's where you're seeing the worst relative performance those falling knives still appear to be those trades that many investors want to stay away from to the point about what could snap back the most, maybe those are the ones down 20% in financials down 18%. two more charts i want to show you. what has been really winning now? now that divergence appeared, treasury etfs and gold etfs and

gold miner etfs, up 13% in just one week, and we'll end it, guys, with a look at just overall what it's been like for one particular part of the market that matters to some folks who say it's an economic indicator, transportation stocks, from the highs, mid-january, this is now a 21% drop, so if those transports are telling us something, we'll see if that becomes the leadership in case markets turn becky, back over to you. >> dom, thank you very much. two gains of more than 1,000 points this week and two days of losses of more than 700 points we're also looking to open lower again this morning tuesday's loss came after the federal reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, emergency cuts first time since the financial crisis joining us to talk about it is krm k jim cramer from the new york stock exchange the job numbers good news but the question becomes what comes next on the data points. >> it's really incredible, because one of the strongest

areas, becky, is restaurants, restaurant hiring, and i think that's something we all know is really hand and mouth and day-to-day, because if there isn't a lot of money coming in, cash flow, you're in a jason firma situation, you need to put money in people's pockets. at least they're coming in with a head of steam possibility maybe there's a good cash flow at some of the small businesses that are the backbone of the country but look, what matters is what is on our screen it's one for one interest rates go down, people sell stocks. i think there's a certain point where the linkage will break because if you go to minus 25 i guess, every 25 ticks of the bonds a quarter point in the bonds is equal to what another thousand points? it will stop because it's not the bubonic plague a lot of people think it is, but it's not >> jim, very quickly, what we've seen to this point again, just

with watching what the markets have done to this week, we were talking last friday about how you wouldn't necessarily see a rally before the weekend >> right >> we were wrong last week saying that, but is it the same feeling now or how do we deal with this, at this point >> i think obviously everybody wants to sell everything, thinking the numbers on monday will come in, it would be bad, come into work and maybe school will be closed i think it's tough to get a bottom in this environment follow the ten-year, the ten-year is in charge. ten-year stock futures were barely really down when interest rates were not that low. >> jim, let's pretend all of this hadn't been going on. i feel we're missing the opportunity, what an economy at 270. if none of this was happening we'd be talking to each other, how are we still doing 270,000 jobs isn't it great but we can't do

that, i go'uess >> warren buffett wrote that piece october 2008, he's buying and we'll get out of it, 8,500 we went down to 6,500, you look at the chart, that was a good call as becky knows. this is panic because we're a travel and leisure and service economy. i get that a lot of businesses will be very, very hurt if they decide to do fiscal stimulus, maybe we'll be okay but obviously, what we care about is health, but by the way, i want to wish jamie dimon the best of recovery we have to worry about our health, we're not worried about money. that sets up an opportunity, i don't know when yet. >> jim, great, thank you good to see you. john taylor is senior fellow at the hoover institution and stanford university economics professor. john released a new book called

"choose economic freedom: enduring policy lessons from the 1970s and 1980s. john, i want to ask you what you thought about the numbers and what you anticipate may come next i know people are watching the initial unemployment claims closely and also the jolts numbers. >> the numbers are great imagine if they prnt that werent good puts you in a better position. it's backward looking, last month, unemployment rate 3.5, 270-plus, so that's all positive i don't think we should forget that all the things to do, don't forget also a lot of the uncertainty here is huge uncertainty, so we don't want to add to that by sort of new proposals, new ideas that are questionable themselves, so i would just add that to the conversation so far. >> what do you think of the ten-year at 0.74%? >> certainly low >> shocking? >> it's looking ahead a little bit at the fed and the fed already took 50 basis points

out. there was real questions what impact that has. people think are they going to do more than that, so just looking ahead to the fed, probably is part of that, and there's a weakness in the economy. one thing i'd say that also should be added, yeah, i'm traveling less for sure. i've got more money because of that, but where am i going to spend the extra money? you can see some sales increase in certain areas so yeah, travel and leisure will be down but other things may be up so don't forget that either >> alcohol >> alcohol >> could be. >> media, things you're spending at home. >> exactly >> one area of resilience in the stock market gaining stocks. people staying home, spending more on their devices. what would be the right policy response at this point we're talking about how strong the economy looks in the labor market and we need to have a framework in place in case there's a significant decline in overall consumer spending. what is the right prescription

>> in some sense automatic responses bit into our tax and spending system already. that hasn't been mentioned in the 2008 period, yeah, there was a stimulus the real question is about how much impact that had people took the money and pocketed it and in the meantime you had the automatic mechanisms, unemployment insurance, automatic payments that come already so don't forget those hasn't been mentioned at all, and people understand how those work and don't have to pass anything it's already in the law. >> john, the fed, should it not have done what it did, held onto its fire power or need to follow the market both in its expectations and what happened to interest rates across the spectrum >> so my main complaint is more description of what the reason for this was would have been appropriate. you have lots of rationale as the economy is weak, how much weaker, was it inflation

what really drove this and the fed had good process in place in the last couple and a half years but i didn't see that this time. we just got to do this and the explanation was lacking compared to previous moves. i think they have to explain what they're doing a little bit more i noticed a difference this time and hope that comes back >> thank you so very much. thank you, everybody >> you're welcome. >> you're in for, we'll see what happens today but make sure you join us next week. "squawk box" -- "squawk on the street" is next. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. markets are going to try to hang onto their gains for the week as dow futures down about 700 coronavirus cases now number 100,000 around the world, as investors ask what more can central banks do europe's down more than 3% ten-year yield did touch 69 basis points, oil down 4% as