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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  March 12, 2020 1:00pm-2:01pm EDT

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offered on a weekly basis for the remainder of the monthly schedule and i need to do the math in terms of how much they're putting in >> steve, thank you. i know we'll talk to you again in a few moments ron, your reaction to this >> i think steve is right. baa zu ka is probably understating it. i suspect when you go back to '87, that was something maybe similar to this. but again, different set of circumstances we probably still need more from an economic perspective, but this is an opening salvo from the fed that may lead us towards some type of resolution >> the fed just can't risk a credit crisis of great magnitude. that's the bottom line >> i just covered my index shorts while steve was talking and while you were talking >> just now? >> yeah. >> i'll put them out again i also bought a little boeing just to trade it and i think boeing is a great acquisition candidate for warren buffett. he has $125 billion in cash.
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he owns burlington northern. he can come in with a market cap of about $90 billion and buy it. from an anti-trust standpoint, i don't know if it's accurate that he can do it >> more likely, do preferred like -- >> just so much easier to do that. >> a lot of us are wondering what buffet and company are sthig or may be doing in the hours and days ahead >> i'm sure whatever it is, it's the right thing. >> if i could finish my thought from before, it was that my memory of 2008 and 2009, i believe it was march 15th of 2009 and it was ben bernanke going on "60 minutes" and communicating the type of leadership and confidence to both the consumer and to corporate america that is exactly what's needed right now. and i'm hopeful that we're going to get that. >> we've got to split. make it quickly. >> the difference is that he had credibility. this fed has no credibility, nor does the president so for example, the market is only up 5% since he took office. it's got to go to $50,000.
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>> i don't want to do that now, we don't have the time to do it. last quick thought >> it's necessary, but not sufficient to get sufficiency, you have to get testing. the market doesn't know how long this downturn lasts until we get nightmares on the virus. >> we'll see what may happen throughout the rest of the day let me remind you of jim cramer's big interview tonight he's going to sit down with elizabeth warren do not miss that that's at 6:00 p.m. tonight on cnbc that does it for us. let me hand ate you have to kelly and the exchange thank you for letting me bleed into your time a little bit. >> it's great stuff. we really appreciate it. you heard steve weiss speculating about warren buffett and boeing i was looking at caterpillar's market cap we are covering this big-time liquidity. there's a grab for cash to get through companies and the big question is whether financial markets have enough of it. you've heard this major move by the fed. bazooka was an understatement.
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we want to get some immediate reaction here. bob pisani is down at the new york stock exchange. >> and of course, the question, we're just looking at each other down here on the floor, is this the opening salvo, as we said before take a look at the s&p 500 that's what the traders watch. 2950 is where we are, 1254 we are 126, so we have moved 68 points in the s&p 500. that's rather remarkable, that's more than 700 points in the dow jones industrial average just in the last seven or eight minutes. i don't nope if you can put up some stocks that have been down that suddenly went positive. johnson & johnson, for example, was down in the mid-single digits just went ositive. united technology was down mid-single digits. it went positive just a moments ago, i saw something go by on the tape there so it's really been quite a remarkable turnaround in the last few minutes
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a lot of damage has been done. effectively, this is a takedown i talk about every day, where almost every sector was down 8% towards the lows of the day. it doesn't matter whether it was health care, consumer staples or tech or industrials, everything was down 8%. now look at the changes here yes, everything is still down 3 or 3%, but that's almost a 5% move that we've seen in -- this has happened in the last ten minutes, the change that we've seen a lot of people are asking me about boths. i spoke with art cashin this morning, who's recuperating and sends his best wishes. he's looking at his best number, 2351 that was the december 24th low of the s&p 500 we are well off of that, but approaching that earlier in the day. and interestingly, that would be a 30% decline, which would be a typical recessionary dlip in the s&p 500. 30% is fairly typical for most recessions the great recession was 50%. that's a real outlier. finally, some emerge markets etfs, you think it's ugly here,
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we've seen almost 20% decline in some of these other ones brazil emerging markets, mexico, africa, these were all down much more than this just 15 minutes ago. finally, i know there were concerns about what's going on here and the stimulus program. they were not impressed with christine lagarde this morning at all european stocks closed right on the low. she talked about bond purchases, cheap loans, but no rate cuts there. guys, back to you. >> thank you so much and let's again look at the dow jones industrial average the lows today, we were down 2,220 points so this is a huge toururnaround. that came just minutes before the 30-year bond auction that just went off. rick santelli is out at the cme, rick hold up is it looking? >> i'll give this auction a "d." "d" as in dog. but that certainly doesn't give you all the information on this auction. let's go through it. $16 billion, 30-year bonds, the
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longest maturity the yield, 3.12. where was the one issued market. 128, 128 plus. it was right in that area. so we tail ed about four basis points that's why it received the "d. but in a dutch auction, with this kind of volatility, it really isn't surprising. if you look at the rest of the metrics, it looks pretty good. 2.6 is ten auction average 69.5 on indirect is the best since january of '18 the 8.9 on direct, that isn't a good number. that's basically almost half of what the 10 auction average is think about the big institutions that aren't in accumulation mode, they're in liquidation mode so that category, you would think, would be lost anyway. so all things consider, a dealers take about 21.6% of the auction. i was shocked, i thought they would end up taking more all things considered, it had a pricing problem.
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that's been the talk of the day. why should it be any different on a 30-year auction but the other metrics were pretty good. and we've gotten some buns buo as they moved off their lows no one would expect them to. the real issue is that everything has moved and we have a major repricing all on quickhand. so far, at least in my opinion, we have seen a lot of these over the years. it's nothing to brag about, but it's as orderly as i would have expected kelly, back to you >> rick, stick around, if you would. i want to bring in steve liesman by phone, as well. steve, i don't yet see the full announcement from the new york fed, but it seems like there are several pieces of it there's the $500 billion of liquidity. and there are asset purchases. are those one and the same >> there are two separate things going on here.
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one is $60 billion -- let me -- the announcement is on the website of the new york fed. it's for reserve management purposes for the monthly period beginning in march, that's going to be spread across a whole bunch of securities here put that to the side, and i'm sorry to tell you, kelly, i think you had i want only half right, even though i still can't actually believe it's this much. but they're going to offer, they will offer $500 billion in a three-month legal operation. it looks like that's to pay at 130. and tomorrow the desk will offer $500 billion in a three-month legal operation and a -- that's a trillion and a half. i hate to do the math on tv, but they just laid this on us, kelly. it looks like it's $1.5 trillion of repo, and an enormous amount of money and this comes after senior kpekts i spoke to this morning,
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kelly, were expressing deep concern about the operation of the treasury market, about spreads, about the differences between the futures and the cash market and a lot of concern about this location. and i was able to confirm that the new york fed was aware of this they could not -- they would not talk about it, but i was able to confirm they were aware of this. so this must be in response to what we've heard from senior executives in the bond market about the way things were trading about possible dislocations i've heard some very ugly terms used about how the bond market was trading over the last several days and we'll see if this solves that problem but i was hearing from executives was a call to dust off some of the crisis-era programs i want to read you one section from this release, which is a little bit unusual i don't know and i can't say this was done before, but it says here, pursuant to
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instruction from the chair, which is apparently chair jay powell, in consultation with the frngs fmoc says [ inaudible ] emergency decision that was made but it looks like fed chair powell directly intervened in making this happen >> so they've done $1.5 trillion, and $60 billion of qe. it sounds like they're buying treasuries sounds like qe to me it's over chips and floating rate notes nominal bills, coupons the $500 billion not overnight they'll do it today, but it's a three-month repo operation then they'll do a $500 billion one-month. and then they're going to do a three-month -- i'm sorry to do
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this it's three two-month operation at $500 and one one-month operation at $500 billion. that's $1.5 trillion, if i'm not mistaken >> that's huge we'll talk more about this the market way off its lows when that announcement originally passed and now it's losing a little bit of steam again. again, the lows of the session today, the dow is down about 2,220 points after this announcement, we went down to about 700, 750, and we're back down about a thousand barry james is here, president and portfolio manager of james investment research. darryl kronk is president and chief investment officer of wells fargo chief investment and rick santelli is still in the discussion, as well. peter, let me come to you first. what are your thoughts about this extraordinary move? >> i've been hearing the same stories that steve heard and that there essentially has been dysfunction within a lot of markets. obviously, the fed's trying to address the treasury market, but this is sort of like the legacy of the volcker rule, where dealer inventories are just not
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there. the market makers that we used to see are just not there. you're seeing these liquidity gaps that everything -- >> rick santelli is vehemently shaking his head in agreement there. you're saying this is a problem that effectively goes back a decade, but became acute this week ironically, yields are increasing why the panic about what's going on in the treasury market and how is that connected, peter, to the rest of the financial markets. >> you can't get more liquid than a treasury market and it tells you that there's real fear, that no one is willing to step up to be that buyer to the seller, or the seller to that buyer so that tells you there's dysfunction, panic, not enough capital to back these bids and offers >> i don't want to be too picky on these minute-to-minute moves,
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but one more thing, we're now down 1,300 points, still the. there was definitely some initial relief here, but is this enough relief? >> the relief is when we get millions of tests over the next couple of weeks, separate the healthy from the sick and continue this shutdown while it's damaging to the economy, it at least gets us to a safer place. a lot of people that then won't get infected >> and darryl, as these markets continue to gyrate here, will this big move by the fed, you think, ultimately help to calm things down, especially as we head into the weekend or not is it all going to come back to coronavirus and the public wanting more assurances there? >> i think you're right, kelly you just hit on this this is infusing liquidity into the market in pa huge amount, but it's not necessarily targeted stimulus that the markets have wanted, which is why i think you're seeing a little backup. peter's points are spot-on yesterday, we saw a very unusual move in rates going higher, credit spreads widening, the
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u.s. dollar strengthening, and equities selling off i've only ever seen that happen two times and it tells you, there was liquidity issues with the u.s. treasury market, and therefore the fed comes to the rescue the only other point i would make, too, here, is remember the issuance market is relatively closed, if not outright closed at this point. so companies started to draw down those big lines of credit out of an abundance of caution, because they're not able to access the bond market right now or sell bonds in this type of environment or refinance bonds so they needed to capture that liquidity while it was available. >> let me bring you in here, barry. you take a much longer term view of these things. i sort of think of you as buffet-esque in that regard. would you expect this to be the kind of market that warren buffett -- if we're looking for votes of confidence, we just got a liquidity vote of confidence from the fed we frankly can't order up a vote of confidence in terms of trading coronavirus. what do you think, if anything, if you were berkshire, if you're buffet, are you looking here
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>> caterpillar's market cap is $50 billion. i think boeing is down to 90 billion. there's been massive, massive dislocations here. >> i see a big doughnut and it makes me hungry right now. on one side of the doughnut, things were going along great. now we're in this hole we don't know how big this hole is going to be, but things will be great on the other side, in the sense that there will be pent-up demand what we have right now something we don't know. how much earnings will fall. how much the economy will slow down but i see a big banquet table and they're starting to put these things i love to eat on the banquet table. and i would be starting to look at what i wanted to buy more than what i wanted to sell yes, there are some things to sell right now, but i would be looking at that second move, which is, what i would to buy. what would do well after this passes >> and let me ask, as rick -- steve, go ahead, jump in there, steve liesman. >> i was just going to say, i
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don't think people should get the wrong impression about this injection of the liquidity by the fed. it's not going to solve the coronavirus, it's not going to solve the economic fallout with the coronavirus. this money looks aimed directly at a specific issue which is out thereby, which is the difficulty in trading, the buying and selling of treasury securities and the effort to make it so that those markets operate efficiently and are able to operate orderly. i don't think this solves any of the problems stocks can rally or not, but to the extent there's panic and concern about how the treasury market is trading, we'll have to wait to see if this amount of money is sufficient to solve that problem but it's specifically aimed at one thing. so new viewers who are coming in and aren't used to this sort of thing, they need to understand, this is a very technical operation, flooding of the zones, enough running around for buyers and sellers of big institutions to buy and sell
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treasuries, to make sure it functions. it doesn't involve any other problems >> let me bring rick in. it's been about 20 minutes since this announcement. like i said, a little more relief in the immediate aftermath than perhaps we're seeing now are there signs in the treasury market is it too soon to tell about whether this is kind of helping to grease the wheels, so to speak? >> it's kind of hard to tell, because in the grand scheme of things, we're talking qe but really what we're talking about is, what the fed's doing is make sure the gears of short-term, kind of like the issues of commercial paper back in the crisis, it really is more about these arrangements that have claims on treasury securities that up until about 36 hours ago, everybody wanted now there's a liquidation side to this, whether it's munis, some of the highest quality fixed income products and i think the fed is very smart. i've never had issues with these facilities they do a good job and we need to address liquidity where my issue is, is trying to do more.
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there's no capitulation this time like there was in '07 and '08, and various sectors whether it was the mortgage sector or when lehman went under. the health side of this doesn't give us that luxury. so really, what i see is markets trying to tread water in the twilight zone of pricing and the fed is trying to make that ordeal last a little longer. but until we get more numbers on corona, whatever that is, you can blame it on collisions, on test kits, on whatever you want, but this is very hard. it's like trying to change four tires on a car at 80 miles an hour >> the dow is down about 1400 points as this that's a 6% drop barry mentioned this idea of looking towards the other side when we come through the coronavirus and it's different from the financial crisis, where they had this long financial repression aftermath you would hope in this event, there's pent-up demand, it's kind of like being stuck home with two kids for two years, which i know a little bit about. here's membership point,
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inflation. right now you have inflation yields at historic lows and they're meeting next week. what happens coming out the other side of this, that there's any hint of supply measures. >> i think you'll see that demand rush for everything fei the pent-up demand will be enormous and the supply side will not be able to immediately step up to that. good luck trying to get a ship to deliver the product that you need we are going to see, i believe, a supply inflationary price shock that is to follow. it will probably be temporary until things sort of readjust, but i think that is to follow. the question is, do treasuries respond to that by selling off and seeing higher yield or look past to thinking it's just temporary. >> final word here, darryl and barry. i know there are individual names you think people should buy, but broadly speaking, would you call this a market panic do we use the word "crash. barry, you've seen a lot of these cycles
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what would you liken it to >> it's like 1987. i remember 20% in one day, so this isn't that unusual. it's about 40% in 40 days. it could be that short of a decli decline. it would not be surprising to us to see more down i would look at investing, things that are high-yield type of bonds, or highly leveraged companies, i would probably stay away from those and those that are definitely impacted by the coronavirus, the travel industry, stay away from that. but there are things that are dropping down, bargains, bargains, bargains, good opportunities to start nibbling. don't go all-in, start nibbling. >> what i would say is watch for true capitulation, which may be here part of the reason for that thought is, you're seeing risk-off assets. defensive assets actually sell off now. utilities and reits, which were plumbing new highs literally days ago are now down 18 to 20%.
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u.s. treasuries have come back up to 75 basis points. those are showing you those risk off assets are getting sold in this environment which is usually and historically a good sign that capitulation is near >> we thank you. we'll probably hear from you throughout the show. peter boockvar is going to stay with me, because we want to talk a little bit more about the banks, which are seeing a small comeback here on the back of the fed news the federal reserve stepping up with $1.5 trillion of liquidity skpf $60 billion of what we can effectively call quantitative easing what are the mechanics of this why would the fed do this what are they trying to accomplish and how do you think it will play out >> i think the feds have to provide liquidity. they have done this in the past
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and i think you'll see them continue to be interactive with the markets to make sure they don't freeze up. >> it's the banks that use this, right? >> they're part of the process the money market mutual fund is very big as well it's the entire financial system that are interrelated and they have to make sure that liquidity doesn't dry up >> and why would they need to go to the fed for this liquidity? the fact that they're offering it and that's where these participants go, where would they typically get it? >> when the markets are this volatile, the federal reserve will always come in. i think the fed is doing what it's supposed to do. and if they could calm down the markets, that would help everybody. >> one point that peter made a little while ago, you go back to the financial crisis, sort of hallmark legislation, the volcker rule, which was meant to make sure that banks weren't trading with client money, but that meant that banks weren't doing a lot of money period that they had traditionally done in the bond market. all of the stuff that we've seen happening in the treasury market this week is that telling us that perhaps the cure was worse
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than the disease or how would you interpret that >> it's a little too early to tell the federal reserve knows that if it needs to do anything, it will do it it broke the rules if they think they need the volcker rules to suspend it, they'll suspend it they will pull out the big guns to make sure this does not lead to some sort of collapse like we had in '08, '09. >> but those desks don't exist anymore to some extent those participants are gone. >> right >> but this is the side effect >> how do you expect, so the banking industry obviously at the heart of it's companies like united airlines and the cruise lines tapping their credit lines is that what you think the fed is ultimately trying to do here. also make sure that liquidity in
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the system in general is available. in other words, how would this go from helping the banks, per se, to helping oil and gas, travel industry, and so forth? or will it >> it's certainly not going to help the fundamentals. i think it tries to help confidence in that people want to believe that the system is not going to all of a sudden collapse under its own weight. i think in terms of the companies that are tapping these credit lines, it will be specifically those companies that may have maturities coming up this year or next, those that have immediate working capital needs, but there's still a lot of other cash-rich companies that are not going to. i'm hearing so far that wile the headlines are that boeing and some others that are tapping, most companies are not we'll have to see how this plays out, but that's what banks are there for. they're well capitalized and prepared for things like this. >> i think you said it perfectly. the banks are very well capitalized and we're seeing a reintermediation back into the banks. the banks have lost out to the shadow bank strig for 30 years they have the capital, they have the liquidity, and these lines
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are set up for these very reason so sure enough, these companies have this access, which are very good >> although the market is not giving them much of a vote of confidence and why, for example, is a name like bank of america one of the worst performers we're used to seeing citigroup the one that's taken to the wood she wanted is that because bank of america represents the broad american economy. does it have exposure to some of the weaker parts of the u.s. >> i think it's more just memory than what happened in '08, '09 and unfortunately, bank of america was one of the troubled banks along with citigroup i think what's going to happen is the banks can demonstrate, they think they will, that we can get through this correction or this downturn very efficiently and maybe even profitably that they will rebound and people will reassess that the banks do have the strength and the liquidity, and we shouldn't treat them like we did in '08, '09. >> so if we take a step back then, there's the kind of immediate overnight or term liquidity, let's say, from the fed. there's also this $60 billion of purchases. and peter, this takes us back to
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the crisis era playbook. and it's actually coming before they have even cut rates all the way to zero. what is in the tool kit now. what does this reveal about how the fed might be thinking about how to treat this continued market sell-off? >> with respect to their meeting next week, i think what we're seeing is, it's not the cost of money that is the issue here it's the flow of liquidity and different pockets. to those that need it from those that can provide it. and shifting the cost of money from 1% of the fed funds or 50 basis points or 75, that doesn't really matter. i think fed needs to shift to getting the money to those that need it, lubricate the liquidity in terms of the bit in the offer of these markets and try to make sure that we can get to may or june when this virus hopefully calms down it's all about buying time right now. it's buying time and to calm people down, to get us to springtime, where we hope that this starts to calm down overall with respect to the virus.
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>> dow had trimmed its losses t down as much as 750. thank you both gerard cassidy, peter boockvar, greatly appreciate it. we have some breaking news out of washington, where senate majority leader mitch mcconnell tweeting just now, notwithstanding the scheduled state work period, the senate will before in session next week he said, i am glad talks are ongoing between the administration and speaker palos. i let's stick with washington for a moment fred kemp is ceo and president of the atlantic council. first of all, do you see a deal quickly emerging here despite all of the rancor of the last couple of days >> kelly, i actually do. that was a great conversation. and thanks for having me on. you do provide light instead of heat at these times, so it's terrific to come on. i think they will reach a deal, because they have to reach a
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deal and that gets to last night's address of the oval office, where europe gets into the crosshairs of the president. we know that we need europe at times of crisis and in october of 2009, don't forget the g-20 meeting where the u.s., the uk, other european allies came together and stopped a hemorrhage that could have led to a complete global financial meltdown i was in europe on 9/11 and i was in the euro star under the tunnel from london to brussels at 9/11. and at that time, nato triggered article 5 for the first time in history. it's europeans saying, we're going to come together to come to the defense of the united states if it needs it. that's the spirit of leadership we need right now. world democracies need to come together, and we'll need the europeans to address the financial aspects of this. so it's not the right time to
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put them up as the problem when they're part of the solution >> e lan moua is on capitol hill, continuing to report on what stimulus package may be shaping up here. what can you tell us >> it looks like the senate needs more time to try to assess what will come over from the house. i was speaking to a couple of senators where they discussed the decision to stay in session next week in order to keep debating this. i spoke to one senator, cory gardner, who said that he actually supports several parts of the house bill, but just needs more time to work through it, both of the other lawmakers in the senate as well with the house. but the dilemma for senators, even as they decide to stay in session and continue these negotiations, there are a growing number who are having to either self-quarantine or closed their offices because of the coronavirus. rick scott was the latest to
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announce, he's going to be self-quarantining. was supposed to have a press conference, and abruptly cut it off when it was determined he had come into contact with someone who had tested positive for the coronavirus. these negotiations are certainly fluid. this is a sign they do want to keep working, but everyone was surprised by the amount of pushback from republicans to a bill the democrats had hoped would sail through the house and perhaps even receive bipartisan support in the senate. >> i would like to make this a little bit more of a conversation with fred >> these people represent passionate points of view and there's a strong difference of opinion about the best ways to solve this crisis. is there common ground that could shape up quickly to get something of almost $1 trillion in size passed >> i think the common ground will come when there's more of a realization of how many community spread there has been. we have about 5,000 tests out
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there. the south koreans have done $100,000 tests the british have done 25,000 tests. it looks like we don't have as much spread as different parts of europe, but i think we're going to have it and the more it gets into the system, it's not a question of whether or not this is happening, it's really a question of how far is it going to go. and i think as soon as that becomes clearer and clearer, you're going to have a lot less bipartisan ranging and a lot more coming to an agreement. and i think the president has to lead on this he has to say, look, and not only do we have to act internationally in unison, we also have to act together in unison and he has to help the republicans find their way to this agreement >> ylan, is there any support for moving forward with something like a coronavirus czar, put dr. anthony fauci in that position, having a trusted impartial person to become the
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voice of authority literally spend 24 hours in a closed room and say, how is the senate going to meet or the house is going to meet we can't afford to have these discussions underway because of coronaviru coronavirus. >> this is not a perfect bill. this is not anything either side and not for republicans, but that they will have to take several bites of the apple so right now, what they're focused on is perhaps using the framework of the house bill, which does not include a coronavirus czar, as a starting point, trying to get this passed, and perhaps come back with something else. one of the sticking points in the bill right now is how to structure paid sick leave. everyone agrees we should have sick leave for people who have to stay home because they've been infected or have somehow been having to quarantine because of the outbreak. but do you do that through the social security administration do you do that through some other separate structure how long should the sick leave
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last how much should it be? these are the details that are now bogging down the discussion and we'll see if we can get them resolved >> i want them to take more of the mark cuban approach. we'll take care of the people who work here. thank you both i want to move on and talk about the airlines they are getting crushed after the president's unprecedented european travel ban announcement southwest is down about 12% today. united and te ed and delta are n about 15%. and eu leaders are slamming the ban, saying the president acted unilaterally and without their consultation the u.s. travel association also speaking out saying, temporarily shutting off travel from europe will exacerbate the already heavy impact of coronavirus on the travel ciindustry and the 1. million americans' jobs who depend on it brandon rejoins me, he's an airline analyst at barclays. if this is a liquidity stress
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test, it's not a big vote of confidence by the market >> thanks for having us on, kelly, trying to put some stability in the markets but for airlines and given how far they're trading down, people are really worried about liquidity my we just heard that bookings are down on a gross basis. on a net basis, that's net of refund refunds. they're down about 75% in the u.s. at this point, we're stressing our models we took revenue down 80% in 2q we assume that all of the advanced ticket purchases go away we think delta needs about 2 united did raid $2 billion earlier this week. we'll see all the big carriers, especially those with more corporate exposed bookings needing to raise capital, probably in the next few days, actually >> and the $2 to $3 billion you
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described doesn't sound like it's that much of an amount given the numbers we're throwing around in general for coronavirus? does anybody not have an option for getting that liquidity >> if you look at delta, they have an investment-grade balance sheet. all the major carriers have a revolver of some sort that they can draw down, that is included in their current liquidity pictur picture. their next ceo says, we've modeled a pretty draconian scenario with revenue down 60 to 70% this quarter, tapering off to down about 30% in the first quarter which would be really unprecedented. keep in mind, september 11th revenue went down 20% for the industry but even in that scenario with the capital they've raised, they believe they can be cash positive by $3 billion throughout the whole course of that type of contraction so i think it's really prudent
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for the boards and the management teams right now to be looking at cash, what sources of capital do we have and unfortunately, for american, they've obviously pursued a more aggressive strategy in the last few years, repurposing a lot more stock, taking on a lot more debt that's where i think we see the most concerns. but then again, look, barclays and citigroup have a big credit card relationship with them. it wouldn't shock me if we saw a few billion dollars of forward miles purchased from these banks. we have term facilities. there's lots of options on the table here capex is going to get pushed out. everyone is going to feel this throughout the aerospace system, too. deliveries won't happen, but i don't think any of these companies are actually going to go bankrupt through the this crisis >> well, the fact that you have to say that tells us just how bad it is out there. brandon, we appreciate it. liquidity stress tests for all of these companies and american pain the poster child for investors being upset about those debt-funded buybacks and from the air to the sea now, this pandemic has been
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devastating the cruise industry, too. princess and viking cruises today suspending global ship operations for more, let's get to seema mody >> carnival announcing it's halting operations of the princess cruise line, 18 ships in total, for about two months this will impact sailings scheduled from march 12th to may 10th this follows two high-profile ship incidents the princess line accounts for roughly 20% of carnival's ebi a ebitda the stock down about 17% today experts say they wouldn'tbe surprised to see other cruise lines follow princess's decision viking backed by private equity firm tbg and the canadian pension fund suspending all sailings until may 1st this a private company you're starting to see the fallout spread as well it's not just the cruise lines you take a look at the hotel operators, the online travel names like booking holdings and
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exped expedia, all seeing significant losses in today's trade. >> and i don't know if we can show you the year-to-date-to-date declines for these cruise operators, but norwegian is now trading at $11 a share. >> that stock has been hit really hard, not just today, but norwegian suffering the most when you look at the year-to-date press conference. the three publicly listed cruise operators. >> norwegian is down 80% >> year-to-date, exactly and following that, you'll see royal down i think about 70% carnival actually, interestingly enough, despite the high-profile and negative attention that it's received with the princess line, it's faring better on a year-to-date basis >> seema, thank you, appreciate it it's been a wild session here on wall street. the s&p circuit breaker kicked in for the second time this week that halted trading for 15 minutes, that was shortly after the open this morning. the dow is down 2200 points at the lows it went up to a decline of about 750 after the federal reserve came in just before the turn of the hour with an emergency
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liquidity announcement, but the dow is down 1800 points. the russell 2,000 small caps are down plastic surgeon more than y the ten-year yield yesterday had moved higher is standing about 71 basis points right now in the wake of all of this. it's chopping around crude oil has been crushed again, i should say, big declines across brent and wti. there's wti, down 6% it's just under $31 a barrel the industrial etf is on pace since its september of 2001 with more than 11 members down 10% or more today that includes united airlines, boeing, general electric, ytx, delta and american airlines. fast-moving news here. united is down 18% let's get to sue herrera for a news update at this moment >> there's a lot going on at this point, kelly. just moments ago, the announcement came that sunday's democratic presidential debate is being moved from phoenix to washington, d.c. the organizers are making the chance to reduce the coronavirus
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risk because univision's moderator, jorge ramos, is pulling out of that debate, because he was recently in contact with someone who tested positive for the coronavirus. canadian prime minister justin trudeau is self-isolating after his wife, sophie, began showing flu-like symptoms after a trip to britain the couple is staying at home. national guard troops a shord while began handing out supplies in new rochelle, new york. there's currently a one-mile containment zone in an effort to curb the coronavirus outbreak. new york's governor calls the area the most significant cluster in the country the containment zone is set to continue through march 25th. and major league soccer has suspended all games for the next 30 days because of the coronavirus. the league saysit will continu to monitor events as it works on plans to try and resume the season just one of the latest sports teams and leagues to announce that they are either canceling or suspending because
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of the virus kelly, back to you >> their headlines are coming fast and furious sue, thank you and the "fast & furious" movie has now been suspended a year. as sue mentioned, the world of sports is coming to grips with a new reality following this pandemic let's get to eric chemi with all the cancellations and suspensions up to this point we're hearing from major league baseball and the national hockey league >> the nba took to the league last night followed by other sports they've all announced cancellations or postponements to their seasons we've been getting a new one basically every few minutes. these sports industries, they're massive businesses, considered just the nba brings $9 billion in leaguewide revenues every year 4 billion gets paid to the players $3 billion comes just from its national tv rights deal with espn and turner you add in the pga, which will have tournaments still but without fans major league soccer is now suspended. that's billions of dollars more. and just in the last few
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minutes, we're hearing that the major league baseball, that spring training is now being suspended and national hockey league, they are suspended those two alone, that's combined $16 billion a year and all the major conference basketball tournaments, they were canceled today. one game was canceled at halftime just about a few minutes ago. the one big thing we're waiting for, that naacp tournament has not canceled >> and that will have ripple effects back to the schools. hold that thought and stick around the growing list of leagues is likely to have a huge financial impact and our next guest says, there's not even a way to quantify it right now. josh george pine is here. he's the founder and ceo of bruin sports capital it's great to have you, george what is business like on a day like this? >> it's tough right now and unknown. in the long run, it will sort itself out and the places to look for us, as eric mentioned, the ncaa,
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the -- sports that are playoff run, that's where the money is made those sports are in the toughest position things like major league baseball, they can delay the season, they can add double headers, they can extend the season but those sports that are in the playoff run, it's going to be difficult. lastly, the local people in the communities. >> sure. restaurants, bars, people that collect tickets, security. >> and at least the nba has major tv contracts hockey, as i understand it, they're making money from primarily who's in those seats so losing this could be a huge blow >> it matters more relatively to hockey than it does the nba. march madness, it's more about the tv revenue but you notice the difference between indoor sports and outdoor ports. george was an executive at nascar nascar and golf, they're going to keep going, just without fans those are played outside, so maybe they think, okay, you're not trapped inside we'll see if they change their tune in the next couple of weeks.
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and think about -- i was talking to an nba team president today it's $3 to $5 billion in gross revenue per event. it's $30 to $50 million. >> and there's about ten home games left for teams >> you play three games a week, that's $200 million out the window on one sport. and then you put in the nhl and these other games, it's a meaningful impact locally. >> what about the nba players themselves this will have repercussions on their salaries for next year, won't it >> it will have some impact. but i think the players, the tv networks, the leagues, that will get worked out if you have a $24 billion, you'll figure out a couple million. it's the people locally that are going to get hit the hardest >> do you guys hear anything from -- a lot of stadiums have been financed by municipal debt, and i worry if gate revenues are down, i know they would typically have offsets, but not if you're not having large gatherings of any kind right now, i wonder about the ripple effects throughout the stadium financing market >> i think for a couple of
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months, you work your way through it if this is prolonged, this would be different but over months, you probably get your way through >> i know your kids are college athletes one in high school about to be a college athlete. you're seeing the ivy league canceled all sports. a lot of these college football programs are starting to shut down >> it's tough. i went to brown. brown beat the national champion virginia la crosse team. all of a sudden he gets a note, he worked all year to play on this team and they're not going to play ever again it's his senior year >> what if you're a junior in high school who's being recruited and you have no season >> these things have real consequences so having run a league before, you have to look at it from all aspects. the competitor, the state, your local government, the health of your employees, the health of the players. it's a whole bunch of inputs and you've got to weigh them and make the best decision that you can. >> and as you have said, the major outlier right now is march madness. there is so much at stake here for whether they cancel -- as of
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right now, they're going to play it, but with no one in the stadiums >> which is what a lot of the conference tournaments said a day or two ago now, it's, forget it, we're not even going to play empty >> and when you think about it logically, they have a tv contract for 2032. yes, it's $900 million in tv revenue, but over that length of a deal, i'm sure you can figure it out it's balancing the desire to collect the $900 million versus the other issues >> and i guess it depends on where those loss es will come down who would bear the losses and is there insurance for anything like that? >> i think you can work it out over the course of your tv deal in the worst-case scenario but people are going to get hurt all of those companies that did the ticketing and hospitality packages i think it's less of an issue really for the ncaa and more of an issue for the people that -- >> didn't one of your investment companies have something to do with mercedes benz in atlanta and that's where the final four was going to be, i think, this year and it's like, oh, maybe we need to both go to a smaller venue.
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we don't need a football stadium if nobody's coming >> everybody in the sports event will take a hit. i think it's the short-term hits and the working person is really going to get -- who's the security people -- the ticketing people the food service people. all of those local small businesses this is real revenue to them and it's not going to be there >> guys, thank you appreciate you coming down today. our own eric chemi, as well. let's take a look at the markets, because we are headed back towards session lows. the dow is down nearly 8% right now. after we triggered the 7% circuit breaker the first time, it has to be down 13% to trigger it a second time the nasdaq is just shy of that level. the itb is the home construction etf. it's on pace for its worst day since the housing crisis down 11.5% right now our diana olick is in washington with more. diana? >> several things weighing on the builders today mortgage rateses fell to a
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record low last week, but moving up again as lernds try to deal with the onslaught of demand in addition, bank of america downgraded lennar and toll brothers, saying while they're still bullish on housing, we would be remiss to assume no impact on end market demand from covid-19 toll brothers a luxury builder will be impactedby the massive drop in the stock market, it's already down 50% from its 52-week high bo a is tampering its forecast for repair and remodeling. there is concern that their labor force, which was already very tight, could be hit and then display chain disruption for products coming from china >> the other question which our robert frank has reported anecdotally, open house showings in manhattan are following any sign the next few weekends it might be a little tougher out
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there. >> we've been calling around to retailers all over the country and all real estate is local while one agent in texas said everything is great, an agent in l.a. said the same thing, in seattle, you're not seeing is that you're seeing open houses being canceled and redfin saying they would be willing to do skype tours without the potential buyer being there. >> let's turn to the restaurant stocks darden and brinker international are down double digits let's bring in jim ballis now, managing director of the strategic operations group at capital spring, a private investment firm focused on the restaurant industry. jim, it's good to see you. so, restaurants -- the trouble is, if you don't take your trip to some country this year, you
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might take it next year. the restaurant business that is lost because of coronavirus, they're probably not going to get back, is that right. >> it's definitely going to be challenging for them what you're seeing is a clear migration from people dining in the restaurants to people fo them those businesses that have those available to them as revenue channels are performing better >> that reminds me of our last conservation about the ripple effects of these sports cancellati cancellation if weem apeople are picking the up and the delivery, that's fine but the wait staff ha happens to the wait staff is nobody is dining in these places >> it's difficult for them. they are working paycheck to paycheck the other problem you have to remember is the restaurant business is one of the -- i think it's the second or third
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largest employer in the country. any impact to the restaurant business has ripple effects throughout the economy >> tell us how your business works. you finance the franchisers? >> we're a bit unique. we both provide equity and debt to restaurant companies and some situations those are independent concepts and other situations those are franchisees or businesses and some franchisers as well. >> i can imagine your returns aren't going be what you thought they were. maybe the long term valuation shouldn't be changed are there going to be cash flow issues from these companies that don't have the people coming in the door they thought they would. >> most of our focus is on the quick service or fast food base. those tends to be fairing better they are able to close the dining rooms and have drive through or delivery. because of that, hopefully we'll
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fair a bit better than others. >> we have to talk about worst case scenarios it's kind of too late to be like korea now italy becoming one possible path that we go down are they have shut most everybody down except groes stro -- grocery stores and pharmacies. do you think they would shut down restaurants >> these are unchartered waters. we're in the early innings here. we don't know what's going to happen should we have situation like italy, we'll have to deal with that when it occurs. we don't believe they will shut down the restaurant business the food is safer than at home because we take so many precautions around sanitation, whether it's cooked temperatures or specific policies for our workers. >> if i'm going to do pick up instead of dine in, if i'm going
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try for delivery, what are some of the lasting changes you might anticipate here. does it create different winners and losers do you think some of these behaviors might be sticky, so to speak? >> i think what will happen is once this will blow over and we'll see people come back just like any other crisis. you mentioned a couple of names early, those tend to be casual dining and restaurants with waiters and waitresses those will suffer million unless they can migrate and do more off premise. >> that food doesn't deliver rel. with there menu changes they would take to try to enhance and say you know our menu, you love it we'll offer such and such tweaks now. we'll make sure it's hot it travels well, so to speak
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>> i think already they have made those changes as the business in general, even pre-coronavirus. we're seeing the businesses tailor their menus to what travels better you're seeing a lot around packaging for safety reasons we're putting stickers on bags as they go out and we're recommending they take certain precautions or stickers over the boxes, for pizza boxes to make sure they don't get tampered with you'll see actions around delivery those travel better and will lean into the items. >> chicken wings or something. i don't know at this point thanks very much good to see do you let's take a look at some of worst sectors in the market. it's not hard find them. they are energies, financials. industry is down more than 9%. the financial is down 8% and industrial is down about 7% today. the worst individual down to some extent. they include d works chemical,
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american express and ibm the index is down about 7.5% as the scramble for cash intensifies, liquidity concerns is dlthrowing it in let's bring in ian pe just need the voice of thord what about is happen ng the treasury market and whether the announcement will solve that >> thank you very much for manager me on. it's an exciting day in the treasury market. fed is getting involved but getting involved in a suit l way. they were already buying $60 billion worth of treasury. >> they were >> this is reallocating out of bills. they will probably end up doing more soon. >> explain that for a second this is not necessarily new money into economy
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it's not new quantitative easing it's a new kind. >> why would they make a step like this? >> they're worried about the market assuming when this program end, which it was scheduled to end soon that they are over and out of the market it's clear the market and investors need the fed to step up they're going to cut rates to zero they will do that next week. >> the biggest question is cause and efkts herfect here. it was last tuesday morning market vs deteriorated significantly after that rate cut. >> the fed is doing everything that they can to buy time because that's really the name of the game at this point. the fed wants corporates to have access to funding. they want the banks to have access to funding. they want to provide an opportunity for the primary
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dealers who had been disintermediated they want to make sure that money is in the markets. they are doing their utmost to make sure it doesn't become anything like the financial crisis fed cuts rate, yields plunge you heard a lot of talk about why they asked is the levellat related to the k of liquidity the central bank is tamping down any need to trade the market because they are telling you it's going to zero they will be cutting rates to zero and bond buying >> i would argue that it's a function of a lot of the regulatory changes that happen after the financial crisis what's going on at this point is banks aren't willing to take the risk it was the severity.
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when you get a move that's that fantast significant, people want to step away i don't want to be vovrd right now. >> i spoke to chris on power lunch a couple of days ago and he said he thinks the government bond market will be broken this is him panicking about his own future to some extent are these problems becoming existensial. >> yes and no. price action when it exists as long as this has, it become a problem unto itself. if this move had come and gone and was the v shape that every one was expecting, we wouldn't be worried about bank liquidity. people are selling longer term treasuries and parking money and cash that's why you see a lot of this counter-intuitive price action >> that was not the paradigm we all talked about this be in
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the afternoon. what do you think is going on here >> it was being put on liquidity if you look at the spreads between the run it's very evident. it's a typical tell. it's a point where there's a true sense of calm in the market and hopefully that comes before fed, if not, then directly after. >> last question here. the markets looked better in the immediate aftermath of this cut. we're kind of back to the lows do the treasury markets look better to you. i know it's only been an hour. do you think they are doing enough to really kind of help solve this challenge >> if more perspective the treasury market looks better because rates are lower. i'm expecting negative rates i think that will be reality for the treasury market a lot sooner than forward their pricing in. >> to you negative rates is a good sign.
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to me it looks like the apocalypse too thanks for coming in >> thanks. >> that does it for the exchange today. thanks so much for tuning. here is tyler with power lunch kelly, thank you very much welcome everybody. we start today on power lunch with the massive market sell off. the fed stepped in to inject 1.5 trillion into the system but virus fears are outweighing that relief for now it's a yo yo kind of day the dow is down about 16% or thereabouts this week. let that sinin

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