indicator there's an evidence of force. >> you can see it in the tape no doubt about it we are certainly keeping an eye on that and asian and european markets overnight. european markets in particular selling off. don't miss the markets in turmoil special and one not to miss we are out of time here on "closing bell". >> have a good night ♪ ♪ the fed tries to run to the rescue with more than a trillion dollars and fails. good evening, everybody. welcome to "fast money" on an historic night the dow falling an incredible 2352 points, a nearly 10% drop that is the single biggest one-day drop since the fateful black monday of 1987 every dow stock fell and only one of the entire s&p 500 index rose this again, on this night for your money and guidance, tim seymour, brian kelly, and guy adami. here's how the day played out and it was like a number of days

all rolled into one and a quick 7% fall and a trading haul the dow down more than 2,000 points and then right around 1:00 p.m. eastern time the stocks tried to stage a comeback on the back of the news that the fed will inject 1.5 trillion back into the market and prevent a full-blown credit crash. the stocks kept falling and we ended the day on the lows and we have a huge show for you tonight. for the host of big names with guggenheim's scott maynard and john hess. we'll get to those in moments, but first, let's get more now on exactly what the fed did and tried to do today with their trillion and a half dollar injection. we are joined by phone by steve liesman. >> i'm not on the phone here, brian. i am joined by the federal reserve. in the first instance, it extended its purchases to $60 billion across the range of maturity and the fed was buying on the short end and it was

going to buy a whole way of maturity and the reason for that is because there was a lot of dislocation and we'll talk about that in a second with the treasury markets and that was in the first place and then it went out and injected and call it infinite liquidity and $500 billion is an important number it was through a series of different maturities in the one hand it was doing $500 billion overnight $175 billion it was difficult to count how much liquidity will be out there at any one time and it's an absolute noah's arc with the zone with liquidity through april 13th and let me give you, brian, a quote by the fed as to why it hit it if you can put that up for a second and these are being made for the disruption in terms of financing markets with the coronavirus

outbreak in some cases, guys, there are spreads that are wider than they were in 2008 and you look, for example, the differential with what's happening in the cash market and the futures market and what the fed is trying to do is to go in and create liquidity. >> it's just not about the stock market and i don't think the fed would expect there to be much impact and the stock market and i want to tell you what people are now expecting. >> they would cut rates to zero, maybe a hundred basis points at the next meeting and more quantitative eating to rekindle those to the program, guys >> steve liesman busy day for you, as well. we do appreciate that. >> so, guy, we gained about 1,000 points on the dow in a couple of minutes when the news broke. why do you think that didn't stabilize the stock market >> people don't trust the federal reserve anymore and you know, they can say whatever they

want they can say this is injection associated with the coronavirus outbreak and that's great. if you need to have a villain, that's wonderful, except that this started back in september before the term was ever coined. call it what you want and we've said this on this show for a long time now. there's going to come a point when the fed hits diminishing marginal returns in terms of what they can do and my view for a long time was when ten-year yields got to 1.4% and started to fall and that would be it and you've seen how crazy the market is you can inject the liquidity they want. again, in terms of consumer behavior, i'm not running out to starbucks or the movies or a hockey game because the fed just injected it. it's got nothing to do with that and unfortunately, i think the market is starting to calm on it >> it's negative utility in other words, what happened on the surprise 50 or not so surprised 50 basis point cut and today you had a market that actually went in a negative

direction because i think what you got today and i think the fed tried to distinguish between this was aimed at a market action and not a stimulus action and i think that's very important and the market action was probably on some level what the fed has always been there for, right you want the fed to step in and bring in some orderly liquidity to market when they lose that, and i think they would go to zero before they go g into a stimulus style asset purchase and i think steve was alluding to this. today was not supposed to be a white knight as guy says there is a silver bullet out there. >> this to me is in simple terms about the plumbing the pipes had frozen up or about to freeze up you had a treasury bond option coming up at 1:00 and all of a sudden the fed comes out and says, you know what? $1.5 trillion. for my context people are talking to, the pipes were freezing up so the fed had to

come in and flush this liquidity into it, and i don't think this was designed and i don't think anybody in the stock market was designed to say this will change the behavior the pipes keep flowing >> the market acted, dan, like the pipes are still frozen. >> the problem that we have today is that we're seeing a confluence of events, a confluence of crises coming together right here. obviously, there's this health crisis that's unquantifiable and the problem is it's leaked into a financial crisis and now there's a political crisis and a crisis of confidence and you're saying that the fed, there's very little confidence in what they can do to stem the losses in risk assets across the board. we do need a coordinated action on the health, on the fiscal and then the monetary and that's when things are going to settle down, but until that happens in a really bipartisan and very simple way we're going to continue to have this downward volatility because when you can't hold the gains based on that action that sounded like

just the bazooka to end allba bh zook as on the front >> and the black swan for people who haven't read the book or understand what it is it's an extreme event that was a low probability, vent that in retrospect we should have known or done something about ask wnda it did was trigger the crisis with potential global growth coming out of a trade war. dan is referring to a political crisis, whatever you want to call it. we're in a political cycle and the market had not wanted to address that and we had a market's crisis and the fed had injected liquidity into the market part of this is where we came from, so then the black swan layers into what i think today is about, and i think people's lives are about to change dramatically people are getting shut out of your life. so when you're shut out of your

life, you'll go to cash and this is beyond any moment in terms of the blood in the streets moment and this is a point when people's lives have been changed and they're scared >> let's back it up a bit and i know we're a market show and i don't know that we can do the market stuff first off, my daughter's school is postponed and canceled, probably yours and probably many of yours out there every major sporting, vent, broadway, everything shut down in one day in a 24-hour period stocks reflected that, guy adami, and in no way i am going to call a market bottom. it is not my job and probably more to come on the down side. but was there anything out in today's market action or anything that we saw anywhere that makes anyone starting with you, guy, to believe that this was some kind of max fear and anxiety. >> i'd be lying if i said i thought today was a capitulation day. >> not capitulation, max

anxiety. >> we have a weekend and i hope it's a max -- i have no idea i think tim makes an extraordinarily important point in terms of people's lives are fundamentally changing i'd like to think that, you know, maybe we did hit max i don't think that's the case. i will say this, given what's going on out there, i mean, you will have pretty violent swings to the upside as well and there are people that come on and say that was it and we'll have this v-shaped recovery and i don't think that their is what it's about right now and quickly. everything that's going in the nba and overreaction it's a reaction. i can't determine whether it's an overreaction or not, but what i'll tell you is to think that it's not going to have a severe effect on earnings and therefore the multiple of this market -- right? >> here's a really important point and the last time we had this kind of velocity of a sell-off and equities it was in 2018 and it was q4 and we saw 20% take to trough decline and

we had a reversal on a pivot from the fed and that was it you didn't see the sort of hit and the negative hit to earnings in 2018 and you did see the earnings growth that people expected before that when i think of what just happened here and everything that you guys are saying, you have to go back to the early 2000s and you have to go back to 2008 and 2009. those were the last two times we had recessions and the last two times we had protracted bear markets and the likelihood of this economic effect, no matter how bad the health crisis is, it will have a lasting effect and the only thing that is going to cure it is going to be time. the idea that the s&p 500 is above 3500 any time soon, put it out the window it's not happening any time soon i can be that definitive about it because there's nothing we can do curing the crises that will get back out there. >> let's get reaction to the fed's big move and we are pleased to be joined by scott maynard and chief global adviser and he said we were in, both,

ludicrous season and the s&p would turn out, peaking on the 19th and it could fall to 0.25% and we had the ten-year hit .38 shortly after that, rebounding a little bit in the past few sessions scott, welcome i know you're busy and thank you for taking time out here on cnbc was there anything that i called it a fed fail at the top and maybe that was right or wrong. there was anything that you saw in the credit markets that indicated to you that things were loosening up? >> you mean in terms of improving, brian >> yes >> no. it is very situational right now. there are many securities that you can't convince for the liquidity in the market and i think what we are a mass equilibrium problem and that is that the market has been held up artificially and that there are

sellers who would like to get out, but the buyers willing to come in are at much lower levels and so it's -- i think in the credit markets we will see a sudden and precipitous collapse in prices. >> okay. scott, what does that mean, a sudden and precipitous collapse. i'm looking at some of these closed-infunds and i'm looking at some of the high-yield etfs and looking at some of the debt if we can, 20 and 30 and 40% >> those are interesting, brian. those funds have liquidity to them than the underlying markets. so for instance the high yield might be down 3%, but i've seen stuff trade down 20% on the fund market you could say that's panic and yes, i think it is, but it's also showing you the lack of

liquidity. in the institutional world, you know, institutions tend to have a little bit more flexibility. they don't have to sell a security as opposed to the more liquid markets like the stock market where a specialist has to make a bid every day and there's always a seller. so i think we haven't really seen prices marked down in asset ca category and high yields and bank loans are still vulnerable and right now in having true price discovery, i think asset-backed security and clos, and whole business securitization and aircraft. those are the most vulnerable places. >> let everybody else jump in for a second and we talked about it qe, scott i'm going to '08 and '09, tarp, talf, some of these programs,

would you describe what the fed did as those and if not, do you think that we will need a return to those types of direct buying programs >> well, let's talk, of course, there are a number of things you're bringing up there, brian. there's quantitative easing and i've always argued that the treasury bill purchases were qe. now there's no argument anymore because they're buying with the yield curve just like qe the treasury bills and they're maturing and we'll get reinvested a reinvested across the yield curve and we've definitely engaged in quantitative easing our view is if we are not already in a recession, we will slip into one very soon and the analysis that we've done shows that it will probably take about $4.5 trillion worth of asset purchases in order to stabilize

the economy. on the tarp side, tarp is a creation of congress i think that we are -- that would be the appropriate thing rid now. one thing i would like to remind the policymakers when i talk to them tarp was a moneymaking opportunity and if done correctly it could be a moneymaking opportunity again, but i think the t.a.r.p. program here would have to be $2 trillion versus the 700 billion that we did in the last downturn, and talf, if we have t.a.r.p. then we can do talf and talf would be a great idea to provide financing for liquid assets for people like me who manage client money because you can't get liquidity or you can't get financing to lever your positions and a lot of investors like hedge funds like to value their positions. >> scott, over -- in the fall we talked about there was huge volatility in the bond market

and we're talking about the ten-year yields and over the course of the last week we've seen ten-year yields go up 35 or so basis points to where they currently are today and 80-something basis points and if you think about that, that is an astronomical move and you've seen the 30-year go from a 5.4%. one of the mandates and i'm air quoting, you don't see me of the federal reserve is price stability. well, guess what there is zero stability in the bond market and the volatility in the bond market is at levels that it should never ever be close to what does that mean? >> guy, i think what it's telling you is that there's a high degree of liquidityin the treasury market and a high degree of uncertainty and as people come in and try to do purchases of treasury, the bit offer spread has widened quite a

bit and an off the run 30-ier bond, for instance, that is the bond that was the long bond just a few months ago, yesterday we were getting quotes that had a bit offer spread of one point and that's the sort of bit offer spread that you would normally see in junk bonds. you know, as for the movements, they're mind numbing a couple of days ago we had the 30-ier bond go up in priss by 7% if we came in and the stock market was up by 7% people would be stunned and bonds are supposed to be low volatility and low risk so, you know, it's definitely telling you that it's chaotic and people are probably overexposed on certain asset classes that they shouldn't be and we have a big dislocation here >> scott, it's tim again, thanks for joining us one of the things that seems

different about 2008 and this isn't a financial crisis and we talked about that. i just want to talk about the duration of clarity and we had dead assets that bubbled to the surface and we had t.a.r.p. and we had talf and this all happened in a two and a half-month span and they begin to repair. the big issue with coronavirus and what we will be told, we understand, and we don't understand and it is closed for almost two months. >> and how does that make this policy process, and this dynamic, get worse, frankly. this is what troubles me >> the first thing i would say, tim, is we're not? front of this. the policies that were proposed last night by the president are not adequate to address the

problem. the scale of what they're attempting is not adequate to address the problem and as we see major league baseball cancel its season and we see disneyland closing. i joked today, we're not going to have anywhere to go to spend any money anyway which means the economic damage will be much larger than people anticipated let me ask you that, scott you're part of the ownership team of the dodgers. is the baseball season going to go on? >> well, what i read this afternoon in "the wall street journal" is that mlb has cancelled and i don't know if they've canceled the entire season. >> spring training for now >> oh, spring training i think it's a question mark, brian. they say it's going to go on, you know, if it does, i hope you'll come and be at my birthday party at dodger stadium on the 28th of march. >> i'll have to walk there if it's in california, scott. i appreciate that. listen, you can do stocks, too

was there any indication to you that there is a floor nearby in the equity market? >> well, it's interesting. we did close just on the uptrend line in stocks for -- since 2009 if we continue below this level, brian, it's the end of the bull market you know, i consider something like the spanish influenza, the drawdown in the dow industrials in the spanish influenza was around 37% we're down about 28% right now i think we are due for a pause, but i'm looking at those lows that we got to in december 2018 is probably the next support level really, and you know, tomorrow will be a very

interesting session because if we break that trend line, you know, that's the end of the bull market and interestingly enough, equities are unchanged since the inauguration of the president. >> scott, so much stimulus might be needed and we might already be in a recession and by my count you came up by somewhere around $6 trillion and that seems like a pretty big package. so my question is if we are in a recession, how deep of a recession do you think we're looking at and how long do you think we're looking at one for >> well. >> that's a grit question and typically a recession lasts about 18 months and there is a period here where we are going to have a sharp contraction and consumption. if for no other reason we have nowhere else to consume. consumption is the biggest

driver in gdp and we could see a drawdown in economic growth in the second quarter that's the same as the drawdown in the economic growth that we saw during the financial crisis. so, you know, i would anticipate that the problem is once you do damage to the economy, even if the coronavirus goes away, the -- the weakening of the structures of the economy such as the airlines and other businesses is going to have a permanent impact or let's say, a prolonged impact on the behavior of theconsumer and the busines and so it's going to take a while to rebuild that confidence so i really don't see us having this thing turn around very fast and that's one of the reasons why i may be a bit more bearish on stocks than some other people >> so, scott, you know, just talking about the last two

recessions and the s&p 500 basically got cut in half from the highs in 2007 to the lows in 2009 from the highs in 2000 to the lows in '02 and '03. given the uncertainty right now is that what we should be expecting here that we'll see the s&p 500 at half of the 3400 that it traded at february 19th and the other part of that question is think about both times we had those recessions and think about where interest rates were and where fed funds were and where the fed balance sheet was and is it going to be different this time and does it have the potential to last much longer >> i think i was on the show a month ago with some of the cast of characters that we were on today with and i said that i thought stocks could ultimately be 40% to 50% lower than their peak so we're playing this thing out exactly as i expected. in terms of the stimulus, we

don't have a lot of tools here and interest rates were at a higher level or we had other structural forces in place, it could help us, but the reality is if it's going to take a lot of -- of the liquidity from the federal reserve with the policy which was lean on them and it's going to take a large -- a large bailout of some kind or a large support package from the government because corporations were so much highly levered than they were at the time of the financial crisis >> companies are, scott, but not the banks in the same way as

'06, correct >> you don't see any chance of this becoming a banking crisis, do you >> no, i don't think so, brian obviously if, you know, we have a wave of corporate default which i expect, credit conditions will tighten. that is it will be harder for, you know, businesses to get bank lines and bank revolvers, but the more important component of financing is the bond market and we've already got the bond market shut down it's virtually impossible to do a new issue even for the highest quality borrowers and until we get some confidence back into the market, you know, we basically have no access to debt or capital and the only reason people will look for capital is to cover negative cash flow and the market will not look kindly upon that. >> scott, we have to let you go, but we appreciate you calling

in -- it's been a lot of historic nights, scott, but tonight more than any other and please, keep us informed on what you're seeing and we appreciate you calling in to cnbc thank you. >> thank you, brian. >> sage words listen from scott. i know he took a lot of heat when he was talking about where the yield may go and where the markets may go so far it's played out and does anybody disagree with what he said >> a lot of what he said we've been saying for quite some time. the problem is the market continue to fly in the face of all of us to the upside. again, let me say this and it's interesting and you can't do the counter factual thing. i totally get it, but scott said something interesting. the fed don't have a lot of dry powder here. so go back to october 18, november when jerome powell was saying we'll reduce our balance sheet and we'll raise rates and the s&p was 28.50 or so and the

called everything off and they went back to what we're doing now, the madness and the market rallied 100% guess what we're within earshot of that december low and we have no bullets left in the gun. so my point is i happen to think they were on the right path back then and i know i'll get fricka seed on twitter for it, and there was no reason to do what they did in that environment >> that's a totally fair comment. >> i would chime in now that if anything today and the speculation around what's the fed going to do? the speculation is we don't know what powell is going to do and we don't know if he's going to go and buy assets. >> when it's the darkest when we know least about what the fed's doing and the least commentary and out of the bernanke fed at least they were going out of their way to know we're out of transparency and i think there's a lot of mystery right now and it seems as if powell is pushing back against, i share your frustration, guy, and if it's

time to buy assets and that's why i asked about t.a.r.p., talf and other stuff. >> let's look at what the other central banks in the world have done and remember if the central bluffs, and it would not surprise me that part of the bailout package or some part of the reserve is buying etfs, and if there's dislocation like scott is talking about. >> you think so? >> really. >> let moo ask you this, very quickly, very quickly. do you think there's any chance that the bond and stock market will shut down for a couple of days if the economy shuts down -- is there a risk that can happen >> we've heard about lick quidi issues and what's happening where these financial institutions are, they have the people working from home and the schedules going on and this is a huge problem for liquidity purposes and if you think that today was the liquidation, it hasn't because these people have

not really spread out yet. the days that risk managers are separated from the head traders and all of that sort of stuff, that's going to be the time where we have the scariest moment and so why do we bring up charge why do we think about valuation levels, because that's what a lot of the machines are hooking at, so they only hear from the s&p 500 from the 24th or 25th in 2018, that's probably a level where things are overdone and i want to make one point about how this market is working relative to what the fed has been doing and in late october when the fed started expanding their balance sheet and this was after the three rate cuts the s&p 500 rallied 11.5% in what felt like a straight line. take that out of there and let's think about 30.50 and that was technical resistance in the s&p 500 and here we are at 25 hun or something like that. it's not the end of the world especially if your time horizon is not next week or two weeks

from now there are more dislocations to come, but i, you know, at the end of the day i think we'll have talf and t.a.r.p. and we have to have everything and we have to have the health crisis under control which i think a lot of people on this network have been echoing it. >> by the way, headlines crossing just now and i thought people would fricka see me and that's just crossing and people think we're nuts in ohio and idaho. the reality is, folks, life here has changed. this is about many people in one room that you will get and to dan's point when you have head traders and risk managers and everybody trying to coordinate, but they're all in different spots or in their home it could be difficult cnbc has continuing coverage of the sell-off, where we go from here and be sure to catch our special report "markets in turmoil" 7:00 p.m. eastern time and we have breaking news on amazon and it has to do with new york

let's get to deidre bossa. >> amazon is instructing all employees around the world to begin working from home if they're able to. the expansion of this policy going global is one of the most aggressive stances amazon has 650,000 full-time employees worldwide. this follows google's recommendation earlier this week that its employees work remotely if they're able to and like other tech companies amazon is providing compensation for employees with corona virus and they're continuing to pay hourly employees that support the company's offices around the world, that includes janitors and security guards and it applies to the many, many warehouse workers. >> deidre bossa, thank you very much let's turn now to washington lawmakers are moving closer to put together some kind of coronavirus aid package and elan moi has more on what they're trying to do. >> caller: the speaker of the

house has spoken to the phone five times the last time was at 3:50 p.m. aides tell us that progress is being made and they're moving closer to compromise on those outstanding issues remain and while those negotiations still go on behind the scenes, the house is officially in recess. members were recently advised that both are still expected to happen later on tonight. over here in the senate, majority leader mitch mcconnell has already left for the weekend as have most lawmakers as well, but mcconnell has canceled recess for next week and so you can expect to see them back on monday talks are ongoing between the admin separatia administration and speaker pelosi, and he hopes congress can pass bipartisan legislation to continue combatting the corona virus and keep our

economy strong >> after being in mar-a-lago last weekend with the brazilian delegation and he says it is out of an abundance of caution and there are seven senators' offices or seven senators who have self-quarantined and we'll see how the capitol can continue to function and keep monitoring if i learn anything else, brian. >> thank you very much for that update, as well. let's talk about this before we bring in another big guest and we have john hess of hess oil which is another very important interview there, and i want to go a little bit more to what dan sort of suggested. i think people don't realize congress can do these things and we still need humans to do this work >> yes, you need the humans in washington tounderstand that we're in a crisis time and not to be going back and forth it's great that they talked on the phone five times they should be in the same room trying to get something done i mean, if you look at what's

going -- what's going on around the world, there is some serious issues coming, and to think that you're going to go on vacation next week? to think that oh, maybe we'll come back on monday is frankly insane and this is a bit of a political crisis because the more you go down this path in the state that people are in, you end up losing faith in your political leaders and that's never a good thing >> leaders lead by example and you know, it's very disappointing that mcconnell's phoning this one in. i don't care what the vacation schedule is. the health crisis is something that we realize that we're trying to catch up and the financial packages around addressing that and bipartisan >> that should be both sides of the aisle coming forward addressing the health issue and this isn't about throwing pork into the markets are and the

markets don't get any confidence out of that admin stralgz. >> the current catastrophe continued and oil falling 6% to $31 and change per barrel and no sector has been hit hard as much as saudi and the biggest etf the xop has lost 65% of its value in just 70 days so what happens from here? we are very honored to be joined by john hess, ceo of hess corporation. john, we appreciate you calling in thank you very much. an important time to hear from a guy like you first off in the short term what's going to happen do you think there's any chance that russia and saudis meet that opec can scratch together a supply cut deal and if it did, would it matter? >> nice to be on your program, brian. thank you. oil is experiencing two major shocks one is demand from the coronavirus and one is supply from the saudi-russia price war.

in the past, oil prices have been hit either by a supply shock or a demand shock. right now we have two, and in terms of demand, the fear from the coronavirus has had a huge impact on demand, basically last year we expected for this year, actually, we expected demand to be going up a million barrels a day and now it's estimated to go down 500,000 barrels a day and the way the economy is going and the way people are being quarantined and 12 million people fly a day and that number is way down now and that estimate could be on the optimistic side and in terms of supply, you were just talking about it last week the russians flexed their muscles and saudi arabia decided to flood the world's oil market to teach the russians and our producers a lesson and that's that they have a big stick, but the real problem here is saudi arabia and russia are playing chicken at the world's

expense. >> the economic problem we're facing today is a lot more than oil and the oil price crash could be a catalyst that propels the world into an economic recession and the deeper we get in, the harder it will be to get out. >> is there anything that the government could -- you heard us probably talking earlier about all these programs and the fed and stimulus is there anything, john, the government could or should do for the u.s. oil and gas industry >> no, brian i don't think a bailout is what's in order here for u.s. shale producers. i think any work the government should do is for people in need, people that are suffering the most that have lost their jobs or aren't getting paid at the same time u.s. shale producers are the real casual tee of t ty they have to survive they don't have the debt or equity markets and you guys were

talking about that before about really keeping oil businesses alive. i think the outcome of this is that the u.s. recount will probably go down at least 50%, and as a consequence next year oil production in the united states will probably be down a million and a half to 2 million barrels a day. the key point here is that shale is a strategic engine to the united states with an impact on jobs and national security and as we've all seen on the stock market when oil goes down the stock market goes down they are no longer inversely correlated. >> john, it's tim seymour and thank you for joining us on a crazy day and evening. >> we're in the long term business so talk a little bit about how companies aren't necessarily riding the wave here and that, in fact, you know, capex has been adjusted over the last few years and where balance sheets are for people that are very concerned about maybe not you and other players in the industry

>> that's a great question look, people have to realize that the oil industry is a long-term business as you're saying the investment you make today provides the oil supply five and ten years from now the two major will cha efrjchal faces are climate change and while the world is awash in oil right now the international energy agency has made clear that the world needs to invest $65 -- $650 billion a year to grow oil and gas supply to meet future demand. for the last five years their numbers ranged between $350 billion and $420 billion way under what the number needs to be and the economic meltdown we're going through right now makes it even more difficult the other challenge that everybody talks about, rightfully so is climate change. climate change is real it's the greatest scientific

challenge for the 21st century and as much as we hope for major technological breakthroughs, the international energy agency has run some scenarios and the one for sustainable development where all of the pledges for the climate accord are met, oil and gas will still be 47% of the energy mixed in 2040 so the real thing that's troubling, i think, is in a lot of the political debates that are going on, i think a lot of the politicians hope that they can wave a magic wand and have oil and gas disappear, but they may have climate literacy, but they don't have energy literacy. we need both for sustainable development andwe have to realize that oil and gas are essential for human development as well as economic welfare. >> mr. hess, it's guy. thank you again for coming on. you mentioned the importance of the shale industry and specifically in our energy industry at large. is there a chance instead of pitting themselves against one

another that the saudis and rugs did this to cripple our energy, just when we get to energy independence they pull the rug out from under the price of the underlying commodity >> i definitely think that is a major objective of what's going on on rigright now and it's not the shale producers that will be hurt by this oil price crash, it's actually saudi arabia and russia with the price drop that we've had which is very severe, we project that saudi arabia will lose over $100 billion this year russia will lose over $100 billion this year. both of them have oil as 70% of their exports and their financial reserves are 400 to 500 billion each and they'll both be losing 25% of their financial reserves just because they're in this price war. nobody wins a price war and they're not going to win a price

war. >> you look at the xp etf and obviously not all companies gl to zero and there are others that will go bankrupt. do you find the companies are discounting companies like yours who has opportunities. you have a huge new operation in guyana which everybody says this massive opportunity, do you feel like investors are dumping everything without thinking about the individual companies involved >> brian, our company is in a very strong position to weather the storm. first of all, we have 80% of our oil hedge for this year at $55 wti and $60 brent. secondly, we're going to be making an announcement soon that has a major capex reduction planned. it doesn't make sense for any shale producer right now to drill for oil at the $20 price

so we'll have a major decrease in the program and in other programs across the company because right now every oil company should just hunker down and run for cash in addition, what makes us different than most of the shale companies in the united states is we have a diversified portfolio. we actually have cash generators in our portfolio, the deep water gulf of mexico and malaysia and with the budget reduction, it becomes a cash generator so our whole goal right now is basically to preserve cash, to live to fight another day and to protect the great investment opportunity we have in guyana. >> john hess with tough talk and smart words and we do appreciate it, thank you very much, we look forward to that announcement about the plans. i have a feeling they'll be a part of it thank you very much. let's catch you up to speed on several market developments and major developments outside of the market as well on the corona virus that broke within the past 24 hours

you probably heard, hard not to, many major events, almost all of them are pretty much canceled across the country for the next few months and let's go to julia boorstin >> the most recent big closure is disneyland resort in anaheim scheduled to be closed through the morning of march 14th through the end of the month and leaders of the conner is companies including the ceos of live nation and aeg announcing that they recommend postponing all large-scale events through the end of march and the cancellations and suspensions of major league sporting events just today the ncaa canceling the march madness basketball tournament along with all other men's and women's winter and spring championships and this after last night, the nba suspended its season after a utah jazz player tested positive for coronavirus. the nhl is suspending its season a month ahead of the playoffs and major league baseball

suspending it by at least two weeks and broadway shows will be suspended starting tonight through april 12th and this after governor andrew cuomo banned gatherings of more than 100 people and they must reduce the capacity by half brian, back over to you. >> julia, thank you very much. outside of that, guys, stocks are trading after hours and i know there's probably some hope out there and we'll get a bounce and maybe we will, guy, but dan, you and i were looking and apple is down another 3% or more after hours. we ended on the lows what does that tell you? >> here's a little thing, right? this is a little inside baseball and those two stocks and they're trading down and you're curious. there's a stock and disney and that's news, we talked about it and when are they going to close and they had shanghai and hong kong it's trading at 90 the fact that it's not at 85, i think that's good. there's news out in that name. watch that name.

see what sort of relative strength it shows to some of these other names. again, why is the market trading this way because we don't have visibility and we don't have guidance and microsoft and apple pulled their guidance and we don't know and until companies start defining what's going on and then they'll start trading better and i would encourage those ceos need to get out there a little bit. >> you actually make a really good point about the rest of the market here, too there is some good news today and i know it sounds terrible when parks get closed down and cities get closed down and these type of things and we know from the history of this disease that once you start doing it that is what you need to do to control and contain the disease. so that means the sooner you do that stuff, the sooner we get to an economic recovery so to dan's point, you know, news out on walt disney, everybody probably expected this there is some good news that we're moving in the right direction. i would expect this with many other stocks over the next couple of days. >> and so then back to a couple of stocks and back to apple and

microsoft. when you're putting your list together of high-quality companies, these are two companies that are obviously right there, and there are different reason yes they're right there and they include fundamentals and include the core businesses and include the fact that these are stocks that have seemingly been resilient on the way down and if you look at microsoft it's only down 2% year to date. microsoft is up 53% year over year, and if you look at the nasdaq it's outperformed the s&p during the downdraft or year to date it's outperformed the s&p by 750 basis points so either you will see some of these stocks and the nasdaq coming back to the s&p which it's diverged from or this is the case where these are some of the greatest stocks i happen to think these are market proxies -- >> and those are stocks they think are proxy plays, and i think they're going to lose ground >> to dan's point, maybe the

bottom is when they announce the closure. >> if it's just one thing that's interesting -- i can't come over there and hug you, but i'll just wave. >> let's talk about the market in general there are two things that we have to think about, there's magnitude and price levels and time which we measure with momentum indicators. the s&p has managed to slice through pretty much every technical level so far and it's down 10% today it took out the 200-week today and that was a fairly important level and that's the secular uptrend that was in place from 2011, 2016, and we took it out today. so there's a lot of damage happening and i think they were talking about it earlier, but 2346 is the low in the fourth quarter of '18 that represents a 62% retracement roughly of this entire move. it's a fairly important level. we haven't seen a lot of

evidence or divergences that the market is able to dig in and find the level and that's the next level that is important if it can't hold there we're looking at 2100 which is a big number the key point here is when we look at these weekly momentum indicators that track one to two quarter shifts and they begin to stall out in the end of january, beginning of february and it was a good timing tool and never expected that kind of magnitude and it argues that we're not going to see a low or bottom until we move well into april or possibly may and it will take time before the bottom takes hold huge leadership basically at relative performance highs and it took out the two-00 day and the next key level is 6600 to 7,000 and that takes you back to these lows and this momentum indicator says there's still more time and it is too early to back up the track to come back to these names and we need to see a bottoming. >> right to the point of microsoft. we took 141 and 131 is down at

this level and the next level below that takes you all of the way back to 116. so momentum says there's still more time, probably into the middle of the second quarter and in terms of relative performance these stocks need to come in and it will probably put pressure on a lot of the leading areas of the market and that's where we start to see a bottom when we start to break the leading stocks. >> rob, looking at microsoft especially, rob, thank you very much appreciate that. yeah, you know, it's interesting this comment that dan made i think it was dan niles who made this you buy when disney says they're going to shut down is there some sort of indication that companies were to come out and say you know what? we're taking a month off that maybe that would actually help the markets in some ways >> no. >> that i don't know -- i don't know the answer to that, but i understand what you're saying. >> to b.k.'s point >> that could define the hype of the unsettling news. i think you make a fair point.

it's interesting rob mentioned microsoft and i get such a quick out of twitter because the trolls are out in force. they say we never make bold calls and i'll tell you categorically and i know because i was sitting here on february 11th, microsoft made an all-time high of 190.40, i believe, if you'll recall on that day on rather large volume it reversed and closed significantly lower on the day and we sat here and said if you were looking for the turn in the name that was probably it, and now history proves we were correct so now if you're looking at an entry level, this 140 level is where we sort of traded sideways at for quite some time nine or so months ago dan is looking at the chart microsoft is not going out of business and what they do is still extraordinarily viable the market's just correcting so i think to rob's point, you saw the turn, but i think now you're getting towards levels where if you're waiting to buy the stock this looks interesting

to me. >> another area of the economy that you need to watch very closely are the restaurants, of course the coronavirus spreading and the economy looking down let's bring in bob from the advisory group bob, it's the most owned small business in the united states. what kinds of traffic trends are you seeing from key parts of the united states right now? >> well, what many of us heard about the seattle market and the seattle market is ground zero for the most impacted by the coronavirus at this point. traffic trends there are down about 20%, you know, since the spread of the virus has really, you know, gone viral within that community. so i think there's no doubt that ultimately the spread, you know, is something we were trying to all guess, follow and ultimately try and figure out how is it

going to affect these restaurant companies, the top line and ultimately the bottom line >> do you think it will -- i mean, is drive-through going to save them, bob are people going to just stop going altogether >> you know, save is relative. i think certainly those brands, fast food and fast casual that have more portable food offerings, they're certainly going to do better they have less social interaction. you can go through a drive through. you can get food delivered in that regard, most consumers view those if they're concerned about, quote, social distancing and certainly those are better options. >> sorry, bob. can we talk about starbucks? because to me it's a stock i'm long and fundamentally the short run, we know, will be a disaster an u.s. same-store sales comps have been very strong and the china business has been an

important part of the growth and the valuation has been a big challenge, but the stock's gone from almost a hundred bucks to $62 and $63 and the valuation is very different and can you talk about that name in the context of corona? >> i don't want to rain on your parade, but there are two things that -- the parade has been canceled, bob. >> one is obviously, the coronavirus and the impact there and two ultimately is what happens with consumer spending and the economy post this? do ultimately consumers because they own businesses or their jobs or layoffs, there have been issues affecting their spending, will we see a slowdown if so, how slow will it be will it be as back as 2007, '08 and '09 ore the levels in january? i think the likelihood is we'll see something in between and that will work against. >> we've got to leave it there

bob, we appreciate you calling in and certainly the stocks and 15 million restaurant workers around the country are probably a little bit concerned right now and it's not about publicly traded companies thank you very much. let's talk gold. the commodity also sort of maybe unusually battered in today's sell-off gold handing in its second worst day of the year and options traders are betting the bouillon bounce might be coming let's go to mike ko in san francisco on a surprising day when gold would have got a bid mike >> it's hard to say. one of the things we definitely have seen is a big bump on options volume on gold and that's not surprising because gold has often been thought of as a safe haven. we did see calls out in puts today in gld, the option that tracks gold and what i saw today were the may 180 calls we saw most of those trading at

$1.12. gold sis a safe haven in all of these and it sold off recently i think more likely this is probably a hedge for those thinking that some response basically to what's going on right now might be inflationary. i don't think it will be everything we see is deflationary and this is a cheap way to make a bet if you think gold can somehow catch a bit right here >> mike ko, thank you very much buddy. we're thinking about you out west >> bitcoin had one of its worst days. >> tough day. >> -- ever, down 30% and almost surprisingly, b.k. >> not actually that surprising. a lot of people for a long time has said bitcoin is your safe haven and what i try to tell people is this is a speculative asset today that is trying, vying to be a safe haven so it is still subject to the speculative flows and so for the same reason bitcoin fell today and it tends to be more volatile

so you see a 30% drop. why did it fall? because people want cash and people were speculating that bitcoin would be the next digital gold and i still believe in that thesis and that being said when someone taps you on the shoulder and the risk manager says cut all your positions and you cut your gold, your microsoft and your bit koirn and that's what happened here today just like everything else, in my view it will probably take some time to recover. >> anybody got a different view on bitcoin >> think b.k.'s discussion of the asset class is this is an evolving asset class and i think the proponents of bitcoin have not been saying this is a safe haven and it's an alternative asset class and if you look at the tokens that it was about speculation and the bitdown was becoming the proxy play for the sector high-risk assets it includes cannabis stocks. they're going to get torched and that's gist the way it goes with

less liquidity and high yield and this is what happens during times like this and we're asking ourselves have we hit that liquidity and it's very difficult to tell that >> you kind of do so what you can, and year over year they're up pretty significantly and bitcoin is up significantly year over year and if you're a long-term investor and looking not to sell the oil thing and whatever the thing is down 70% you want to sell the thing that's still up versus your prices and that's why you see the sources of funds and that's one reason why you're seeing microsoft and upon aapple down >> let's go into final trade guy adami, apple down 4% the spy because they trade after hours down 2% and it's early, but it looks like the selling could continue. >> what will you be looking for tomorrow >> the yields and the continuing volatility in the bond market and i thought the most

distressing thing to me today is the ten-year yield and it is unprecedented in the fact that yields didn't crater today if you ask me what i'm looking at it's that. >> disney tonight, they came out there. they didn't quantify what the park closing will be for them and i think we need to see more leadership from major ceos and getting out there and putting their necks on the line saying we're doing this and this is what it might cost us. >> the one thing i would say from everybody tonight on this desk and the guests that we've had is it will take some time and i know there are a lot of people out there looking to catch that v bottom. i don't think we'll have that. you're not going to miss it and make sure you have cash in this environment and there will be time to take advantage of the opportunities, but it will take some time. >> yeah. we're looking for some signs of confidence on policy and wherever it can come from because it has to be coordinated. frankly, on the state level it's -- we're seeing it, at least some follow through, but i think the markets right now are struggling to find some sense of

get out of the uncertainty zone. valuations are something we can figure out as these guys are talking about, probably not overnight, it's time to look at valuations, but not tomorrow. >> guys thank you very much. thank you to our guests. historic night we have continuing coverag dow down mad and jim starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to save you some money my job is not just to educate and teach, maybe entertain some, but to put this in perspective