opportunities. we are buying. it's crazy looking for yield >> glad you came on. >> star properties announced a 4$400 million stock buyback for jim cramer we are buying our stock back >> thank you thank you for everything you just did we made it to friday "squawk on the street" is next join us next week. be safe. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla, cramer and faber are at cnbc global headquarters. the treasury secretary moments away as central banks, businesses and governments respond to the covid-19. futures are limit up after the worst day for the dow in '87 ten-year about 92 basis points s&p down 27% from the record close on february 19th since then, $9 trillion in wealth has been wiped out.

guys, that interview with barry right now makes you feel better. gives you hope >> i think it's important to he hear, are stocks cheap yes. is the system working? yes. is the opportunity going to be great if the country's locked down no so what's important is to find out where the country is fiscally that's why it's important to speak to the treasury secretary. >> yeah. the concerns that we had yesterday continue to be the concerns we have today, which is about businesses forced to potentially suffer significant financial damage as a result of being closed or having no customers. and what that will mean. liquidity is always an issue it does seem to be -- not in the treasuries where we have seen ill-liquidity that scared people moving into credit, which we need to focus on huge repricings. the cost of capital has gone up

for corporate america. >> you can provide people money, but those people don't want to go out we are a service economy, two-thirds of our country is service. what do we do when you get money and yet you don't want to leave your house i think that's something we have to address house speaker nancy pelosi is closing in on a coronavirus aid deal with the trump administration, signs of an agreement lacking in partisanship, i might say, and unity, in favor of the country leading the white house discussions, treasury secretary steven mnuchin and he joins us live first on cnbc mr. secretary, thank you for finding the time to speak to us. how are the negotiations going with the speaker of the house? >> it's great to be here with you. the negotiations are going very well this has been a bipartisan effort i spoke to the president and vice president over ten times yesterday, to go through the issues and get direction

i spoke to mitch mcconnell and kevin mccarthy constantly. spoke to them already this morning as well as the speaker i think we're close to getting this done. this is a very important bill for small and medium-sized businesses, for people that are impacted by the coronavirus. let me emphasize, i think we view this as this is the second inning in a baseball game. the first inning was the $8 billion bail this is the second inning. the speaker said she's prepared to work with us. we'll come quickly back on other issues dealing with the airline industry just as after september 11th we're committed to make sure that our u.s. airlines have the ability and liquidity to get through this >> i know you're a student of history, a student of history with the treasury department we had a secretary during world war ii, a fed chairman then, they worked hand in hand together to make it so there was

as much liquidity as necessary to beat the axis is this an outright war? i'm hearing real dropping of partisanship you working closely with secretary pelosi -- speaker pelosi to leverage whatever we can do to make it so the working person is able to handle and get through this period. >> the president is absolutely committed that this will be an entire government effort that we will be working with the house and senate let me say, i'm in constant conversations with jerome powell, the treasury and fed have many authorities, we don't have the same authorities we had before dodd-frank and the financial crisis, we have authorities, we will be looking at using those the fed yesterday injected 1$1.5 trillion in an unprecedented move they announced $60 billion of bond purchases so we're looking at a whole range of alternatives. the other thing i would comment, jim, i know people talked about

companies drawing down bank lines, things like that the banks have a lot of liquidity, but the discount window is available. i would encourage banks, there's no stigma about going to the discount window. they should feel free to draw from the discount window that's another source of liquidity for them to lend to companies. >> many companies are pulling down letters of credit at the same time. i understand that -- of course because of your efforts and previous secretaries, we have the best banking system. there is no doubt about that can you and the fed work together to guarantee those letter of credits can be done through the discount window so we can keep institutions alive that are employing millions of working people who cannot afford to be hurt by a virus that's not their doing. >> it's not as simple as us guaranteeing letters of credit we'll go back to congress for authorities they took away that we think we need to deal with this we have certain authorities. i can assure you, the president is determined.

we will do whatever we need. i think you know the president is looking at a major stimulus package, whether it's through the payroll tax cut or through another means of delivering liquidity to hard working americans, we have announced what would be about 200 billion dollars of liquidity through delaying irs payments. so small and medium-sized businesses can delay them. we'll use whatever tools we need to make sure the industries impacted by this get through this i thought barry said a lot of things that were right this is a short-term issue it maybe a couple of months but we'll get through this and the economy will be stronger than ever i look back at people who bought stocks after the crash in 1987, people who bought stocks after the financial crisis for long-term investors this will be a great investment opportunity >> mr. secretary, that's an interesting point. there is so much money on the sidelines. is it possible to waive the

restrictions on 401 ks and ira's for people to take advantage of this is it possible to waive the restrictions on banks, smaller community banks to get them in there and buy stock? is this is a time where we can stress there are bargains and opportunities because we will beat this virus. you will help us do it you put together a working group of top scientists and ceos to beat it we want people to participate but the money they need to participate with is not able to get into the stock market because of restrictions that i believe can be waived right now so they can take advantage of this >> i'll follow up with you afterwards and get your list of yd ideas. whatever we can waive we will waive. another interesting statistic, 200,000 people had symptoms, 96% of them did not have coronavirus.

people will get this, but i emphasize for healthy americans, for young people, they may not know that they have this and not everybody who has sniffles will have the coronavirus i'm not traveling this weekend because i'm way too busy, but i would get on a commercial airline and fly to l.a. if i wasn't working 24 hours a day. >> in some ways, mr. secretary, i'm surprised to hear you say that there are not enough test kits still available apparently for us to share in what seems to be your optimism about the lack of actual infection when will we get to the point and when we do with all those test kits out there get to the point that we realize there are more people who do have the virus, are you not concerned that that's going to stoke more panic? >> people should understand the numbers will go up before they go down. i think as you have said, we have heard about the test kit issues

we talked about that yesterday again. the vice president and the entire team are focused on this making sure people have test kits one thing we have in the bill is that people who -- who are not insured will be able to get tests. we want to make sure that tests are available for people and we realize we have to roll them out but people will be able to get testing and that's something that is being worked on, i can tell you, 24/7 right now >> mr. secretary, during times like this as you might imagine, i try to call as many senior members of our financial services industry to get their thoughts, many of them don't like go on the record. with increasing frequency over the last 24 hours, they've said the following to me. we need a two-week or more national holiday >> right >> we need the markets closed. we need the fed and the treasury to provide unlimited liquidity to businesses, banks, everything else shut it down so we can get started again and give people peace of mind.

is that something -- i'm sure you heard it i know you're talking to the same people. what do you say when you hear that >> let me just comment on the second part first, which is the fed and the treasury are doing everything we can to provide what you described as almost unlimited liquidity. 1.5 trillion dollar program is unprecedented. we'll be rolling out other programs we're in constant touch with the fed. as i said, the discount window, banks have plenty of liquidity there will be a massive amount of liquidity in regards to shutting down the markets, i'm not hearing that i'm hearing the opposite from the professionals. we intend to keep the markets open that's a sign of confidence to people people who want to come in and buy. we want to have markets open we kept markets open through many, many times the circuit breakers work. i had discussions with all the regulators the markets are working orderly. no i herd rard rumors yesterday abt

new york city closing down, markets closing down, quite the opposite we intend to do everything we can to keep markets open now, i have heard yesterday -- i heard there were issues in off the run treasuries and liquidity, we're working on that i've heard there's issues in the cp market, we're working on that we have 100 things on our list as soon as we get done with the speaker on this bill, we'll go back for more things as i said, the president wants a still plus pamulus package. we'll do what we need to do to support hard working americans who are impacted by this there's no question, there's a short-term economic issue, but we will get through this and the economy will be stronger than ever when we get through this >> understood, but the economy -- regardless of what you may say -- is kind of shutting down. corporate america seems to have taken the lead here, when you look at the nba, nhl, baseball, disneyland is closed, things are

shutting down, aren't they >> they are. corporate america is responding to the medical advice. as you know, the president made the decision to shut down travel with europe because of the medical professionals thought this would stop the spread of the virus. businesses are shutting down, sporting events. there's no question, parts of the economy will be shut down. as i mentioned, airlines are having issues. we will provide liquidity in these parts of the economy to deal with this and, again, this is not like the financial crisis where people don't know when this will end. we will get through this and, again, the medical experts can't give us a definitive period of time, whether this is one month or two months or three months, but we'll get through this by the end of the year, again, i think you can expect we'll have a big rebound in economic activity >> mr. secretary, it is so important for everyone -- for every working person to be able to get a break here, i think,

whatever treasury can do, whatever the country can do. let's pick a group you and i are no longer a part of. millennials are burdened with student debt, can we suspend their payments for the next three months so they have money in their pockets we will beat this thing, we need these people ready and going back to work with, but we need them to have enough money to sustain this period. suspending student debt for three months, not canceling. what do you think? >> that's on our list of 50 different items we're bringing to the president for a decision. that will be something we're looking at we have lots of authorities. we also -- things where we don't have authorities, we'll work with the house and senate on a bipartisan basis i can assure you, the president is all about action, action, action >> mr. secretary, it's carl. on corporate tax cuts people wondering whether it's finally time to admit that the tax cuts will not pay for themselves, and

were black swan scenarios ever accounted for in the drafting of that action. >> i'll stick with my prediction as i said before, this is just math over a ten-year period of time i think the tax cuts will pay for themselves again, it's about 30, 35 basis points of additional growth over ten years. the and again this black swan event is going to be a relatively short-term period of time when we look at a ten-year span >> and as we watch head lanes from the german government today, the eu reportedly ready to trigger crisis clauses, how much coordination is going on ahead of this g7 fin min call on monday >> i can tell you i've been in constant contact with other finance ministers in the g7 and the g20. the i applaud what they are doing in europe. i think their economy was significantly slower than ours coming into this they have fiscal room, they should be using it we're in constant contact with

both the central bank governors and finance ministers. >> mr. secretary, once again i know as a student of history, as you showed me around, you told me where secretary hamilton was, secretary galvin was, secretary morganthal at that period we had 100% cooperation among president, the president, among the federal reserve and the treasury secretary, with the treasury secretary leading the effort to fight the axis are we on wartime footing? are you getting the full cooperation of treasury and speaker pelosi and the president? >> i think we are, and i would add in mitch mcconnell and kevin mccarthy in that who have been an important part of that. mark meadows is just getting involved as chief of staff, has been part of this, the entire white house, larry kudlow. this is a 100% team effort we are putting aside partisan issues to get things done. again, let me emphasize, i think we're in 9 second inning of

getting things done. so we'll be back we'll be passing more led legislation and the president is prepared to act, do whatever we need to do i think people will look back at this and, again, i can't predict where the markets are in the short-term, but i think the economy and the markets will be stronger later in the year >> i totally agree with you, sir. how do we determine which industries are to be saved do we save cruise ships? do we save airlines? do we save restaurants what do we find is worth saving and what are we willing to let go of? >> jim, let me say, obviously the president's first concern is the health issue and making sure we have the resources on the health side. but on the economic side, our priority, again, round one here is around small and medium-sized businesses making sure that people who can't work, because they're home quarantined or taking care of family members or kids are out of school because schools have shut down, that they continue to

get paid for short perperiods of time the airlines i've met with, i've spoken to all the airline ceos, that's the next priority on my list only because, again, it's critical that we have domestic airline travel and no different than after september 11th. this has hit the airline industry particularly hard but i can also tell you hotels, cruise lines, small businesses, again, these are all areas we're focused on the good news is there's many parts of the economy that people can telework, people can continue to do work, it's strong, it will come back. and that there's lots of liquidity. so, again, this is not like the financial crisis there's a lot of businesses that will continue to be very strong. as you said, there are industries that will be particularly hard hit, and that's what we're focused on that's part of the reason why the president's considering a

very large stimulus program to keep hard working americans having money to put back into the economy. >> we spent the last year talking about tariffs on global trade. are tariff rollbacks anywhere near being on the table and what kind of crisis would it take to put them there >> that's not something we're considering at the moment. but i can tell you, you know, ambassador lighthizer is looking at additional exemptions for companies that are particularly hit and have issues with the virus. so, again, to the extent there are companies, specific issues, we'll address that with the president and react accordingly. >> mr. secretary, do you think we'redoing enough, as you said to stem what is a health crisis? many medical professionals, i'm sure you heard this, want to make sure we slow the spread of this virus, to make sure the health care system is not overwhelmed. do you think we need to do more in terms of limiting activity? or are we doing enough

>> well, let me just say -- i've -- i've been involved on the outside of a lot of crises before i wasn't in the government, but let me tell you, i'm incredibly impressed over the last month the resources that we have within the government, both the medical professionals, the expertise that there is internally and, again, every single agency is involved. the vice president has been leading this task force. we're literally meeting multiple times a day and focused on things i can assure you the president, the vice president, the entire team is 100% focused on this and things are moving fast so the president is making decisions to protect the american people and protect the american economy >> so, mr. secretary, you know as well as i do in 1987 on terrible tuesday, midday, when we felt that the dow may go 1,400 to 1,100 after being at 2

stshg2,7 2,700 weeks before, the chairman said there will be liquidity available. do not worry about liquidity are you giving us that line now? that gave people tremendous confidence to buy stocks in what we now know was one of the greatest historic buying opportunities ever >> let me tell you, i was a young trader in 1987, that was a much scarier time than it is today. yes. let me give you that one ine there will be liquidity available. whatever we need to do, whatever the fed needs to do, whatever congress needs to do, we will provide liquidity and this will be an entire whole of government approach led by the president. >> mr. secretary, i also know that -- i've known you for a long time, that you were a tremendous business person, not just at goldman but in private i industry you know as well as i do that while we would like to tax --

any sort of tax abatement, that's terrific. we have little businesses. i have little businesses i run two restaurants. we already made the decision we'll keep them open even if we have no customers because we have a payroll of 20 people, we will not let them down but we're lucky enough to have the means to do that not bragging, just saying. but most of the small businesses on my block, if they don't get customers, they may not be able to get through this. that means american working people who did nothing but wash dishes and be waitresses and waiters which we love and support, they will not have any sort of taxes that they can possibly have cut. they don't have a payroll break because they're not on a payroll what do we do for these american working people who we know did nothing wrong whatsoever >> jim, let me start with, as you said, there's a lot of people who have had great success in the trump economy, and a lot of corporations that have made a lot of money

i would hope corporations would lower profits and keep employees employed through this, even thoughthere will be short-term difficult times. there will be people who are impacted, and again, we'll look at every tool in the toolbox the stimulus can be done in a lot of different ways. done for people who are working. look at people who will be laid off, specifically related to the coronavirus. again, let me comment, this is not like the financial crisis. we have a medical situation that has shut down and will shut down parts of the economy like we have never seen. but then they're going to open back up. i think there's going to be a lot of demand. so you're right, what we need to focus on is particularly the small businesses who will have big issues and do everything we can. again, the good news is we're an economy where people -- there were more jobs open than workers. so hopefully some of these people will be redeployed in other parts of the economy

>> mr. secretary, i want to thank you so much. we want to thank you so much everything you can do for the american working person will stand out and put you in where we talk about with the treasury secretaries when you walk the halls of the treasury department you are -- i got to let you go, i know that. let's get it done. let's beat this. >> jim, we will. thank you. >> jim, great work the treasury secretary, it strikes me, jim, we have they buckets of pretty encouraging news government response like that is one. the other is the cancellations and businesses taking matters into their own hands and decent news on testing today, whether it's the roche fda approval, hhs putting an admiral in charge of testing, a 24/7 hotline from the fda for those who need authorization for tests. so things are happening. >> right i am a stock guy i'm not making policy. i would love to say this is the greatest buying opportunity,

then it opens high, and the profit takers come in who bought low yesterday. i feel reassured about that the mechanisms will work you can make the decision to take advantage and buy verizon, pfizer or a company that is going to do well no matter what. then we can look at them i know people are thinking about disney disney do you buy a disney now that they closed the theme parks? you have to make a judgment yourself about what kind of risk you're willing to take there are opportunities i would like to take after hearing the secretary that i would not have wanted to do before, which is why that was so important and, number two, if you're an american working person, the man has you at his heart, which also i think means the president does i did not hear of rancor with -- between the secretary and speaker pelosi

we can only hope this is a time when partisanship is put away. this is wartime footing, maybe not for the stock market but certainly for the health market. >> felt like it yesterday as we watched a significant rebound in equities this morning. yesterday the worst day since 1987 >> at least it was orderly >> but when you have dislocations like this, you hear things about the credit market and equity market that could lead to further dislocation. >> i think maybe you should talk about them now >> have you heard enough from the secretary? i continue to talk to people -- again, many of them don't want to be mentioned. >> sure. >> at this point, though many of them may come public, who think there would be more done -- >> you don't think he committed to that? >> i do. in terms of attacking the health crisis and making people feel more confident that this is not going to spread.

>> yes i know secretary -- i have to tell the secretary, if he's speaking to dr. fauci -- >> shouldn't be on a plane >> right >> fauci was on "good morning america" today talking about eight more weeks, he thinks, of working from home and shutdowns. so, this is -- i heard a lot more about peak hospitalizations in may from the tone of the secretary, it sounds like it's a matter of a couple of months at least. >> that would be great if it is a couple months. if they do stop gap measures we can get the american working people through this. i do want to comment on dr. fauci. a lot of people feel hold t he's on tv who is he? he's largely the man who cured aids or made it a chronic disease. he's probably the foremost epidemiologist in the world. i hope he continues to come out -- he's not a calming person he's a realist that's quite what we need right now. david, even if he says at a town hall last night there maybe it

would not be appropriate to take the plane. >> yeah. we'll go to bob pisani and talk more about the markets, equity and credit markets >> you got this covered. >> we try as best we can let's send it over to carl >> new york city declaring that state of emergency in the wake of the emergency what would happen if the nyse floor closed bob pisani has some answers. >> the new york stock exchange is now allowing most personnel to work from home. the people here on the floor, they're not nyse employees yesterday i asked nyse president stacy cunningham what would happen to the floor if someone tested positive for the coronavirus here >> if there's an outbreak, we can clean the floor and reopen quickly. that's something -- we're not planning to close the floor at this time. as you mentioned, we could we could trade fully electronically >> the nyse had a business

continuity plan in place for decades on the floor in the event it needs to close for flood, snowstorm or any other disaster this plan would allow the nyse to trade electronically without the floor if it needs to the brokers here can continue to participate in that electronic trading, though there may be some limitations around the closing auctions the nyse closed many times over the years, for four months at the start of world war ii, the death of john f. kennedy, four days after the 9/11 attack and two days after hurricane sandy in these cases the markets were closed now there's the possibility of closing the floor and keeping the markets open electronically. in the event that some or all of the people working here need to self quarantine, traders tell me many have begun splitting up into teams some working from separate offices in order to avoid having an entire firm self-quarantined.

that's a model being adopted by many companies in the meantime, both the cboe options and the cme trading floor have been closed temporarily. carl, back to you. >> thank you very much jim, i wanted to bring up with you michael wilson, morgan stanley this morning we believe it is time to start adding to equity risk for longer term investors they say their bear case is pretty much priced in after the horrible couple of weeks we've had. >> it does -- it does deal with balance sheets credit matters there's a period in our lives that we have to not just think about the s&p 500 but individual companies with outstanding balance sheets verizon, which you do not stop using. >> no. that's not going to be a concern. >> no. >> the ability to pay bills may

be a concern >> and i'll do this, but i think it has a bit of levity, bristol-myers. that's the kind of stock you buy. [ bell rings ] >> there is the opening bell and the s&p 500 at the cnbc realtime exchange the new york stock exchange is vp of building operations, at the nasdaq, new york city hemophilia chapter and biotech company. jim, how closely are you watching -- the roche news sort of leads you once again to gilead and regeneron today >> i think that -- i'm in contact a great deal with len schleifer. 15 years ago he was our first guest on "mad money. stock market was at 5. the stock is currently at -- well, let's say he made you a lot of money i think he's -- 449, nice

return i think that what he's doing is playing the ebola playbook they are the ones who solved ebola. i'm looking at people like fauci who was aids and len, who was ebola i know they worked on a great number of things people say it can't be beaten. but a lot of people felt the axis couldn't be beaten when warren buffett was buying in 1942 len and the people he's buying with have a chance we need confidence we get kits, we have confidence. you'll find places where it turns out there's far less disease than you may think i'm actually optimistic about the response at this point i think we're more likely to be south korea than italy that may be too wishful thinking >> certainly we all hope that's the case if that's the case, that would be a very positive thing meaning we come back quickly >> right >> conceivably

the concern about bankruptcies, the concern about companies that are not taking in much in the way of any revenues at this point would abate. the markets would respond to that we're seeing that now with significant gains in the averages, after there's potential action in the congress to start he did say second inning, indicating there's a lot more ahead. but there's plenty to be concerned about as well. >> i just want to tell individuals, if you're on margin, will you get the hell off it right now right here? you're just playing with fire. >> jim brought us the treasury secretary a few moments ago. said we will get through this. added they will keep the

market markets. >> chairman greenspan gave one line, there will be liquidity available. do not worry about liquidity are you giving us that line now? that gave people tremendous confidence to buy stocks in what we now know was one of the greatest historic buying opportunities ever >> let me tell you, i was a young trader in 1987, that was a much scarier time than it is today. yes. let me give you that one line. there will be liquidity available. whatever we need to do, whatever the fed needs to do, whatever congress needs to do, we will provide liquidity and this will be an entire whole of government approach led by the president. >> jim, does that answer all the concerns you started to raise yesterday? >> yes, it does. that does not mean all stocks are buys we have a lot of companies he was trying to talk about what companies will be saved.

let's talk about, if you look at the stocks royal caribbean, carnival. you have to decide are these companies that need to be saved? we know we need a strong airline industry those are quite different from buying alphabet because it's come down a lot and they have 100 billion in cash. i suggest to people when they start buying, yes, you can do index buying, absolutely it would be much better to try to be targeted about companies that can give you a very good income, particularly utilities, so therefore you can make up for what they have to do, which is keep treasury rates low. do i think it's a buying opportunity when we open up like this historically it's not been it's been the opposite if somebody wants to come in at these levels, i understand maybe we have a better level i prefer for people who have no liquidity or need the money to make sales here. i think you're over your head and shouldn't have been -- some people are levered, there are buys but it's always better to wait >> you do.

>> yeah. >> i think it was interesting he did single out the airline industry for potential support also mentioned he would get on a plane, seeming to encourage that behavior which health professionals are not in favor of at this point i thought that was interesting >> though, it's interesting, david. mkm has a note out today, they basically say there are two important parameters for respiratory fitness. whether you're a smoker, and the air pollution in the country where you live by those measures, we are way ahead of italy and iran and south korea and china. now there are other factors like obesity, the degree to which we mandate movement around the country. that's a relatively decent hand if you're looking at some of these worst case outcomes. >> right we can only hope >> right >> because we certainly want to make sure the death rates they have in italy, which is just disastrous, is nothing at all like what we have seen here. >> i'm very familiar with the

italian health care system it's superb. it's leadership that matters i would point out what we would love to hear -- i would love to hear from david simon, for instance >> simon properties. >> simon properties. paid $33 billion in distributions. he's the foremost person when it comes to retail as far as i'm concerned. he is a brilliant man. i need to know whether the retailers can get through this period >> listen, the mall operators are a key focus. we can see what happened to simon property group those are writing cds on these they're in bad position. >> or mr. simon. >> no, in general the mall operators, buyers of it are quite happy because they've been doing that as protection betting on the slow, steady demise of the malls, will this change behavior in a significant

way once this is over and done with will people no longer gocongrege in the same way? we asked the same questions after 9/11, we got the answers >> there are amazon boxes stacked at our house my wife is saying i can get it from amazon. sunday delivery was amazing for toilet paper now there's rationing. they're trying to be very sensible amazon has ascended once again it's important that we preserve some of these retailers. we don't want hundreds of thousands of people to be thrown out of work. i wish i had a chance to ask the treasury secretary that. i did not. >> we didn't have all the time in the world >> no. >> i wonder what you thought -- speaking of apple and consumer spending, his point that once this episode ends, how much willingness will there be to spend $1 thoushg1,000 on an iph?

>> we don't want to be in a situation like in my case, my parents and in some cases people watching grandparents, great grandparents, where you just stop spending. you stop spending because you didn't know when the next time would happen we don't want to do that i do know -- it's very difficult for the cfo of apple to come out and say i'm buying every share that doesn't help us we want them to be orderly i bet you he is buying some stock. he's such a brilliant man. you're right, carl i don't want the psyche -- the psyche can change so quickly i looked at the returns last night for our restaurants. i'm not -- these are little businesses that i'm fortunate enough to have people are still going out will that be the case three weeks from now i don't know i would like to hear from adam silver he showed a level of leadership, sacrificing profit over -- and going for health, and that was a brilliant move that we know even caught mark cuban, the owner, by

surprise >> that's why i continue to hear this idea maybe we benefit more from a total shutdown for a couple of weeks because china -- china is coming back after obviously what were draconian measures they took >> yeah. >> things are coming back there in terms of their economy. there's a belief if we were to do the same we might be in a similar position obviously not shared by the treasury secretary and others in the financial services industry may disagree i'm hearing that >> all apple stores are open back in china. eunice yoon, our correspondent in beijing with an amazing piece today on cnbc.com. basically saying, look, this is how it was for us. you guys have the advantage of knowing what we now know as a result of the experience in beijing. and with a lot of reassurances, i might add. >> yesterday at the mall at short hills, there was a -- a lot of people at the apple

store. i hope tim cook keeps them open. people want apple. it's -- you own apple, you don't trade it what i would love to see is a series of executives either announcing new buybacks or doing a level of insider buying that demonstrates they put their money where their mouth is we need to see that by 12:00 and the filings by the end of the day. you know it matters to see a level of conviction like barry sternlicht showed. >> and soft bank, too? >> softbank with the buyback, potentially. that's what we typically talk about here, an activist campaign by elliott, trying to get them to do that doesn't team the most opportune time to be spending cash in a buyback. >> stinl sometimes -- i don't wt them to paint the tape, so to speak. i would love to see bob iger buy stock in bdisney

>> he's only executive chairman now. >> i'll take anybody i'll take mickey mouse at this point. you ever try to interview mickey mouse? >> tough interview >> it was -- it was easier to interview the president. >> that's a tough interview. >> jim, when mnuchin said this is not '87, that was scarier i was reminded -- i was young report er then. this is different. this is -- this is not just a financial economic issue this is a health crisis. >> it's health, it's financial >> it's a weird combination where you're focused on one thing, then the other. the impact from one on the other. it's very difficult to know how to navigate. >> you're absolutely right i spoke to my kids yesterday i have a 28-year-old, 25-year-old. they were talking about real life and all i could think of was like, geez, i hope they're safe. i hope they're safe. just a second, you hope they're safe you like at&t more than verizon? the conflate of the two as a

parent who -- as a husband, you sit there and you come home, and there's the ladies, the women sitting around the dinner table, and you see the food the first thing you think of is, geez, did the guy have a temperature or the lady have a temperature who bought that food you sit there and you think about darden, is it too cheap? in my mind, because i am a dollar sign represented by a man, it's tough to have my usual role when i'm thinking about my daughter in madrid and how i can't see her. >> without a doubt you can't see her. at the same time, a 9.5% decline in the s&p also gets your attention. then you worry about your financial future if you're fully invested >> yes that's why i say those are people who can take advantage of this valley. i don't want them to be fully invested in case this is fis fel and more people become sick.

the secretary was talking about a far bigger toolkit than in '87. he was someone who took advantage of things correctly in 2008 i worked for his father. the mnuchin family is somebody you want to bank with. >> indymac >> had faith in america. >> jim -- >> i would want to hear more about that they're altogether. i wanted to hear speaker pelosi has taken whatever ill will there's been off the table and so has president trump the ill will has to stop if the country is going to stay on equal footing with the rest of the world. >> we'll hear that sound in a second we're well off the initial highs. yesterday, jim, jpmorgan said we recommend using bounces as opportunities to reduce exposure as a sustained rebound is unlikely to occur quickly. we think the selling by systematic investors is mostly over now but fundamental investors can sell more. do you buy that? >> i do.

i do think that we'll look back, this may be the warren buffett moment a few weeks ago becky interviewed him, he said he wanted to buy america. he also said he wanted to buy america in 2008. it was a terrible time shlg y, t a ton of money you made a ton of money. i don't like to buy up markets if we have a down market, remember the bottom in terrible tuesday was around 1200, 1230, why not commit money it has to do with your balance sheet if you've been in cash as long as people have, you have to say i'm going to put together a yield oriented portfolio, because i'm making nothing with my money i won't be able to make money in my senior years when i retire. this is when you take a hard look at a verizon, you buy american electric power which benefits from deflation. maybe you buy some gold because

gold has come down there's people who think it's deflationary i always think it's good to put 10% of your money in gold. is this the right moment why not wait until it comes down a little we don't know if it's quicksand. yeah, then i would do some buying if i had all cash i won't call the bottom but you're certainly not near the top. >> to come back to you, carl, i know we'll hear more from mnuchin. >> is he coming on again >> no, we're going to listen more from our interview. i hope he comes on frequently. the cost of capital is going up right now for corporate america. high yield is a bit of a rally now. yields coming down a bit talking triple cs that were roughly 50% yesterday. the moves in high yield were 5% a week ago energy, of course, a separate story through all of this that we've been following given the plunge in oil prices is a part of high yield. roughly 10% in dollar terms, 15%

overall. 10% because the bonds have fallen so sharply. one other thought that jim brought up a number of times yesterday, these banks in '08, 99% of the lines that were pulled down the revolvers were good the banks were there >> right >> my understanding is that is not as much of a concern certainly there are industries that will pull down their revolvers. >> boeing did the other day. >> as boeing did you can imagine if you're in hospitality, leisure, anything related to these industries. you will pull them down. it's not a krn concern. the banks will honor all of that they have to that's not as much of a concern as some may have had initially >> don't you wish there were some big investors who had come out? isn't this a time for warren buffett to give a call to becky quick and say i haven't seen these values in a long time? >> we know the annual meeting will be virtual, guys. now going from two days to an

hour and 15 minutes because they do not -- in buffett's words, they don't want to make omaha responsible for being a hot spot >> a lot of people feel we have fallen well behind when it comes to the kits, the war against the illness -- >> we have. >> general marshall, one of the greatest people of all time, recognized that we had the 17th largest standing army in 1938 and realized that was wrong. you would say that we were woefully -- we had no kits back then >> unprepared. this time, too >> general marshall went to congress and said we are a disgrace and we need to have a multiple million-man army. who won the war? the virus or us? >> the virus only has to win once, unfortunately. we have to win every time. yes, it would be great when we have all the testing available that we need still not there, jim >> no. >> gottlieb says 10,000 a day by next week. that would be a huge improvement. >> gottlieb distinguished himself along with dr. fauci as

realists we need facts. that's the only way to fight fear and if we get to that level, then i know that we will have much more confidence all of us know employees by this point who have temperature we want to know whether they have it or not adam silver told us -- think about the action, the statesmanship of that commissioner because that was the moment in america when we all realized this thing is winning. we -- that was 1942, when we were fighting. that was midway as far as i'm concerned. i keep using war footing we all know this is a war against an unseen enemy as opposed to that time adam silver said, you know what? money means nothing. we have to protect the population a level of leadership that i have rarely seen in this country. i salute sd adam silver >> i was trying to read his letter from the nba this morning. covid-19 reminds us that we're

all part of a broader society with a responsibility to look out for each other it's a really good letter. we'll watch for headlines regarding mnuchin and pelosi here's what the secretary told us a few moments ago >> the president is looking at a major stimulus package, whether it's through the payroll tax cut or through another means of delivering liquidity to hard working americans, we have announced what would be about 200 billion dollars of liquidity through delaying irs payments. so small and medium-sized businesses can delay them. i can assure you we'll use whatever tools we need to make sure the industries impacted by this get through this this is a short-term issue it may be a couple of months, but we'll get through this and the economy will be stronger than ever. i look back at people who bought stocks after the crash in 1987, people who bought stocks after the financial crisis for long-term investors this will be

a great investment opportunity >> jim, let's talk about that and then let's talk briefly about what we do with the basket of news we got from alta, adobe with the ceo of werkl. i'm a cloud condition. oracle moving to the cloud i think ulta, mary dylan is fabulous i want to bank with her. but you know what? carl as i asked the secretary, what i really need is the confidence that i have enough capital to be able to buy, and the only way is to make it so we change the rules for 401ks and change the rules for iras because if there are limits, i'm afraid to be able to put as much money to work as i'd like to if we took the limits off, i would buy a quarter when we're down and wait for lower opportunity. i have limited capital why? because the government is

limiting my capital. not because of me. let's change that. let's waive the rules and also make it for the people who are most strapped, millennials, as we know from robin hood, if they didn't have -- if they could wave the suspend their tuition, their payments, their student loan, i think they would buy a share of amazon. we need to be able to change it so not to be able to put foolish money to work but be able to recognize we have money behind it if our first buy is not a good buy that would really help do i want people to buy norwegian cruiseline, the stock most up in the s&p i don't know, i have other things i'd like to buy, but i think there are opportunities to be able to take some stocks down in different industries. if we knew we had more capital behind it other than our 401 k being cut off. the president understands these things waive the limits on 401k and

ira, and let us put money to work for the long-term that's what we need. let's get to the bond pits rick santelli is at the cme. >> we could all talk about how much liquidity is needed especially when markets are super thin and justifiably so considering some of the swings we've had. let's step back. one week of tens, they're currently at 95. the high on this bounce has been 97 at 95 they're up 14 on the day they're up 19 on the week. let's look at 30s. hovering now at 154. that's up ten on the day and to 18 on the week and their highs so far on this go around in the last several hours hit 178. it was shocking to see it under 2% in tens it was shocking to see it under 1%. these are extraordinary times. anybody who thinks extraordinary times with the type of

liabilities and commitments now associated with our sovereigns around the globe that it isn't going to messy, i think it's turned out pretty well bund yields are up about 13 basis points as you look at a one-week you can see the dollar has just resurged here. the dollar index has had a huge bounce off the lows. the dollar is tricky i've said even when the dollar got the sufficientintuffings kno it, its default in a world that is nervous is to the up side because all demands think emerging markets here, think of the countries that have put out paper denominated in dollars to aid in terms of their issuings all that means dollars to service. it is the default, and we can see during moments of big anxious times in markets and lots of volatility, that dollar really has surged.

forward rates also are getting a little less unruly, but we're still not through all of this by any means. we still have university of michigan coming up so, of course, i'm going to continue to give us more data points as we sit now, up on the week is an amazing thing when we think about a 31-intraday low on monday david, carl, jim, back to you. >> rick, thank you session high was up 1339 we've cut that more than in half jim, your thoughts on that and the rate action. >> we have to understand this is a time where if you're going to reach for stocks, you reach for stocks with a good yield that yield and the company is not cyclical i'm looking at abvi. they are meshlgirging with alle. people will use botox regardless of the cash pay. it yields 5 .8%.

that's the kind of stock i would go to. it's only up $2. it's well off the high of 97 >> you wouldn't go to a macy's with a 20% dividend yield. >> consumer spending i think is going to be in question. exempt for costco. and then stay at home economy. i've been doing that that makes docu, a remarkable quarter. they joins zoom in my portfolio that says you know what? this does last three months and the way that things are going to change is we're going to do things virtually that's zoom and docusign i can't wait to talk to mr. springer i think we did a lot this morning to make sure people felt the confidence they're going to be able to have stocks that are going to function. >> we were happy that you were able to bring us the treasury secretary who hopefully we'll be

hearing more of. it's important for our lewders to communicate during these times. how about a stop trading don't want to abandon tradition completely anything on your radar >> i think we have to look at -- and i know it's overdone and overworn, but look at a stock that comes straight down from 153 to 95. don't buy disney up, but walt disney, parks closed what will happen when they reopen as they did in china? you'll find a company that has all cylinders. right now it only has one which didn't exist before disney plus. watch the stock as a gauge of the consumer sentiment don't buy up for it. that's not what you do but watch that they should come out today and say they bought a ton of stock mr. iger should do that, and people buy a ton of stock. >> rosen blatt, do we believe megacaps with large cash

balances, like apple, could take advantage of the volatility? i mean, you read between the lines on that one. >> remember, if we buy any company right now where numbers have to be cut, we're going to regret that. can apple possibly do the quarter -- they did say we have real exposure to the downside. it was very logical. and when it happens i think people will say holy cow, it's not that good. my travel trust, brought broadcom it's down 13 the quarter was suboptimal i think the yield at 6.3%, it's down that stock is going to go through 200 like a knife through margarine. if you're buying, it's time to wait but buy stocks down with good balance sheets that i think are going to make it through this period you have to think about economic cyclicality and say wait a second will people still use their product? that's the problem with so much of our consumer product. will people go to restaurants?

>> yeah. i mean, people are asking more structural questions like over time, does the u.s. need to rely less on the consumer as part of the economy? i mean, we were already headed that direction trying to bring back manufacturing. >> i think the idea -- i did a big deal with goldman sachs to be able to -- took down a lot of them, to make it so puerto rico was the pill manufacturing capital of the world let's bring that back. i mean, it makes no sense to be reliant. i have a drug right now where i got the word yesterday the ingredients are in china give me a break. why do i have to rely on prc to take a drug i need and i cannot go without that has to end. >> jim, we'll see you tonight. >> thank you >> capping off an important week david will stick around. bob will tell us what's going on on the floor this morning. >> off the highs, the important thing bouncing the most beaten up sectors

the banks outperforming. industrials, energy health care, all 2% to 3% big movers today, they got beat up the most. we've talked about dow inc., boeing jpmorgan a move to the up side travel and leisure royal caribbean want to check on that the rest of them are moving to the up side. emergency stocks also a nice bounce the worse performing sector. you get the unusual outliers here i want to check on that. that was up earlier in the morning this extreme indicators this week we have to get the indicators. 90% downside days, three of them vix around 75. 2300 new lows yesterday. three things came together people say yesterday how can we be down 17% in three trading days a health care crisis that morphed into a financial crisis

that became a political crisis you heard secretary mnuchin talking to jim hopefully that's dealt with. you get these three together, it's a triple whammy we need lower volatility, lower volume and lower anxiety back to you. >> thank you, bob. good morning good friday morning. welcome back to squawk in the street david faber is with us from cnbc global head quarters it's been a wild week. the dow quadruple digit moves. data is on the tape. let's get back to rick >> yes i'll tell you university of michigan sentiment, this is a preliminary march reading. we're expecting a number around 95 it's better.

shocking it's better. 95.9 now, just to put perspective, last month was 101.0 that was the best level going all the way back to march of 2018 but this number at 95.9 is a bit of a retracement, but it only takes us as far back as october of last year when it was 95 .5 it's pretty good let's look at the current conditions number. that's the sentiment current conditions is 112.5. that's following 114 .8. a little lower if we look at expectations, they're 85.3 that's versus 92.1 and expectations there of expectations was 88. so definitely disappointing. on the inflation front, one year 2.3. that's a tenth light and 5 to 10-year inflation outlook 2 .3 is steady 95.9 is better than expected and we continue to see ten-year note

yields at the highs we've seen since the intraday all time historic low of 31 on monday just three basis points shy of 1% back to you. >> all right rick, thank you. the treasury secretary joined us in the last hour as speaker pelosi's closing in on a coronavirus aid deal with the trump white house. signs of an agreement coming as early as today here's what he said about possible stimulus measures and the impact >> the president is looking at a major stimulus package delivering liquidity to hard working americans we've announced what will be about $200 billion of liquidity through delaying irs payments. hard working americans who have tax payments due or small and medium size businesses can delay them we'll use whatever tools we need to make sure that the industries that are impacted by this get through this >> this is a short-term issue.

it may be a couple of months, but we're going to get through this and the economy will be stronger than ever i look back at people who bought stocks after the crash in 1987, people who bought stocks after the financial crisis for long-term investors, this will be a great investment opportunity. >> cramer also asked about liquidity. >> chairman, they just put out one line, this will be liquidity available. do not worry about liquidity are you giving us that line? do not worry about liquidity there will be liquidity available which gave people tremendous confidence to go in and buy stocks in what we know was one of the greatest risk buy opportunities ever >> i was a young trader in 1987, and that was a much scarier time than it is today okay this is nothing compared to that, and let me give you that one line there will be liquidity

available. whatever we need to do, whatever the fed needs to do, whatever congress needs to do, we will provide liquidity and this will be an entire whole of government approach led by the president. >> all right we're here with mike talking about coming on the heels of the fed announcement yesterday now this pipes look good in your mind >> it looks like yes, at this point they are operating as you would hope they would in terms of -- by the way, the demand for some of that short-term liquidity by the street was not necessarily high i think it gets to the next step which is that doesn't really solve the credit stress. it doesn't solve the idea there's a lot of companies that have a pretty big debt overhang that we're going to have to figure out if they can handle it but i think at minimum, and i think in 1987 discretion is relevant because you have to go back to 87 or october of '08 to find the kinds of selling extremes in a short term concentrated way we've seen this week if you're aggressively selling

now it's like you have to or there's other sense you're picking up trends in the credit markets. >> the '87 analog is a benefit experience not everybody has who is in the market oday. >> it was certainly -- well, it was mess her rimerizesmerizing. this is a health crisis, and i think that's the overlay that has different implications in terms of behavior, in terms of how people are responding. it's an odd thing when so many people in the financial services industry are working from home, are not on their trading desk or split up that's an element there that i think is worth at least keeping an eye on. mike, you know, i have had a number of investors who are looking at things and saying they're getting somewhat cheap now, near term we have no idea of the earnings of

do we have an idea of multiples? >> on an agate basis, i think it was b of a saying maybe we go 15% down from earnings from what we thought you still have to essentially say we deserve a somewhat higher multiple because it might be brief, but in individual areas of the market, it's hard for there not to be value being surfaced when every stock is down a ton i was just looking at very quick and dirty. you look at blue chips now yielding 3% or so. right? i mean, something like that which is a very shortcut way of thinking about changes j&j is about 3%. you can do that type of exercise pretty easily. >> two bits of news. rou the president is set to meet

later today about testing. that's citing sources. and of course, the masters, probably won't come as a surprise to too many people has been postponed they have a statement on social media right now. dow is up 6.89 let's go to our guests and get their take on the week we've had so far david, where's your head right now? >> look, i think that the first one-third of this decline in the stock market was really wiping out the excess froth we had on last year's fourth quarter and the next third that we had was really starting to price in the rising prospect of a recession. and the next third leg down will be pricing in the reality of the recession. so i think look, a lot of work has been done here a lot of rupture and damage. i don't necessarily think that a

recession has been fully priced in to the s&p 500. you could argue that the russell and the s&p 600, the small caps which are down 34% from the peak that they probably priced in the recession. but the large caps haven't followed suit fully. >> what number would do that for you? >> well, it's situational. there's so much uncertainty. but i think if we get a recession and i think the likelihood is very high right now, just a total disruption of global supply chains and to domestic demand. this is a supply shock and a demand shock simultaneously, and then layer on what nobody is talking about but we would be if it wasn't for the pandemic, the oil shock. i think the odds are that the recession has already started. it's hard to know how long it's going to be, but if it's a classic recession, when you look at what the multiple usually does and what earnings usually do, the bottom is somewhere close to 2200 on the s&p 500

>> all right liz ann, where are you gary cohn on cnn saying we're already in recession in his view what do you think? >> well, keep in mind that to the extent we get a decision officially declared, when they date the start, they go to the peak in activity they don't go to where they discover we're in one. if we're heading into a recession, it's probably already started. from a market perspective in the post world war ii era, there have been 20 either bear markets using the traditional 20% definition or what i call near bear markets where you go down more than 19 and stop shy of 20. there's been six or seven of those. those that had a recession in close proximity, the average decline was about 32%. those that did not, 24%. we're sitting right in the middle of that so the problem, though, is we've got other factors including the

problems in the credit markets which the fed can't directly help and then what they're trying to do in the treasury markets. we've had this triple whammy, the virus, oil and the credit markets and treasuries and so far monetary policy can really only directly aid the third of those. >> and i know you have been focussed on the conditions that prevailed when we started here right? you basically had full valuations and investor sentiment overexcited in january and february where are we now on trying to unwind some of that on the way to maybe something that's a little more of a representing core value and diminished expectations >> so for sentiment, i think on most metrics, we have seen a complete reversal. you see it in everything from the cnn fear and greed index if you look at behavioral measures of sentiment, call ratio, sentiment trader, confidence indexes, you have completely reversed the extreme. but the valuation problem is a

different one. you touched on it. we not only have the p in decline but the e in decline and we don't have a sense of where the e declines to, and financial markets have tightened that puts downward pressure on multiples. as i often say, as much as we think of valuation as a fundamental indicator because we can typically quantify the p and e, at least in a moment in time, valuation is as much a sentiment ind cay dor the as the fundamental. you don't know where the bottom goes in pe because it's a function in what investors are willing to pay, not just the actual measures of the p and the e. >> david, what kind of grade would you give about the policy responses we're starting to hear about, and can you tell investors how to think about the deficit and what it's typically been like, the budget deficit going into prior recessions? >> well, the easier question is the second one

if you look historically on average when we go into a recession, we're very close to a balanced budget. it's very unusual to have a 3.5% unemployment rate and write a deficit of a trillion. and in a recession because of spending kicks in and revenues go down, you usually have anywhere from a 3% to 5% increase in the gdp ratio. we're not going to be talking about trillion dollar deficits when it's said and done informal we'll talk about 2 trillion deficits i don't think that would be the top concern on anybody's mind, and i don't think that's driving long-term treasury yields higher i think a lot of that is a giant margin call on liquid safe assets to meet the redemptions taking place and more the illliquid parts of the marketplace. something michael said earlier was about credit conditions. everybody is so fixated on the

stock market, even now that's all we've talked about that so far this month the average interest rate in the high yield market has gone up more than 300 basis points, and now you're seeing the average interest rate has gone up more than 80 basis points when you talk about the policy response and we need as much liquidity provisioning as possible, but we have to make sure affected businesses, especially small businesses are going to be able to finance themselves over the course of the next several months or quarters i was a little i think disappointed to hear mnuchin talk act how this is going to be over in a few months i can understand how you want to underpin confederate, but how do you know we have to make sure this didn't morph into a bigger credit event where it leads to a negative feedback loop where we get defaults and bankruptcies. the one thing we know going into this recession is the debt levels and debt ratios on the

corporate sector have never been like this. the only interest rate that's gone down have been in the federal government sector. the key is to provide lending facilities, whether it's -- i mean, the fed, i don't think can do it directly, but the federal government has to ramp up short-term lending facilities for companies in distress from the shock we're seeing >> granting that obviously nobody knows how long any downturn might last. the selling in the stock market, i wonder if it's presented any opportunities to reorient portfolios or add or subtract from any tilts that you have >> i think it depends on what type of investor you are if you're a disciplined long-term investor and you heed the advice, we espouse around diversity and rebalancing, if you were out over your skis in the latter stages of the rally,

you would have been trimming your equity exposure and adding to areas that had underperformed like many non-u.s. markets now we could be at an environment where again for longer-term investors to take the disciplined approach, their portfolio may be telling them it's time to consider adding but investing should always be this disciplined process over time i think there's too much focus on trying to pinpoint tops and bottoms. that's a fool's errand nobody can do that well, certainly not on a consistent basis. >> all right thank you both have a great weekend good to see you both >> thank you >> thank you don't miss a special report tonight, markets in turmoil as usual, 7:00 p.m. eastern time. stocks rebounding after suffering their worst day since the 1987 black monday market crash. joining us now, jim stewart. his latest column is about the

effect of the coronavirus on the market he's the author of "deep state". he joins us now. >> good morning. >> swimming naked, a reference to warren buffett reference. markets are picking up some of the risk out there that some companies might not make it. maybe we have some risks embedded in the system we weren't focussed on. what are you seeing in terms of where the risks now lie? what's being exposed >> well, one of the things i pointed out in my column is there are d i would say there are three sort of critical areas within the financial system. one is the so-called leveraged lending market which has really mushroomed in the last ten years. i think estimates are it's somewhere north of $1 trillion much of the lending is by nonbanks it's lending to companies that are already highly leveraged which is why it's called leveraged lending. the loans in many cases were packaged, carved up and sold in pieces to a wide array of investors much like the

mortgage-backed securities that is an area where i think there are going to be significant tremors but i would point out it's only 1.2 or 3 trillion we're not talking about a 4 trillion money market. to me, this is not 2008. next junk bonds especially with the oil shock. a lot of the below investment grade debt is from the oil sector i heard estimates from cnbc, it's somewhere around 15 % that is a significant area of risk i think we are definitely going to see a lot of repricing. we have, and there are going to be defaults probably but again, not a scale that the system couldn't handle finally, there are the european banks. starting with the italian banks, and i mean, i can only -- they weren't that strong anyway and we now have an unbelievable economic shock going on in italy. but in theory, the economic -- the european central bank, they

have the tools they are going to have to throw out some of their constraints, but they have the tools to go in, bail out if necessary, and support the banks. >> that's the hope we're getting out of merkel. they're so stubborn and they've been talking a good game for months when do they get real about this >> that will be something interesting to watch i think the germans in particular, they took a hard line in 2008 it would be nice to think they learned some lessons about that. they are going to have to loosen up the spigots over there, and make sure you don't see an institutional failure. i think i'm somewhat encouraged so far it's early in the game but we're so far i think yes, we've had some weird things going on in the treasury markets. but with the fed stepping in with that much liquidity, the plumbing seems to be holding together unlike 2008 where it was spouting massive leaks like crazy. and there was a domino effect going on i've heard people saying this could be worse than 2008

well, i'm not going to predict what it is or isn't, but it's not 2008 yet that was a serious financial crisis, and the thing about financial crises as opposed to the demand shock we're going through now is they breed panic. they breed runs and to me, there's no reason right now why anyone should be panicking and running to pull their money out of the bag >> do you think everything we're talking about is a process of building a bridge to a day where a vaccine is widely available and in a year if it's in a year, is that a reasonable scenario to think get through the year with these tools to a point where consumer confidence can be restored >> i think that is a very reasonable scenario. and i mean, i would not go -- i think the administration has been making some big mistakes by being consistently overly optimistic and understating the problem. >> everybody understands that, i think. >> but nevertheless, i think people have not been focusing very much on china in the last few weeks and things are getting significantly better there the virus appeared on december

31st probably was there sooner. we're talking about a three-month period before there's significant improvement there. i'm not saying we're china, we'll do as well as china, but that's a ballpark thing, and we might begin to see significant improves within three weeks. and within a year, once there's a vaccine, we'll put this behind us i don't mean to minimize it, but it is a virus, and it's going to behave according to the laws of science. it is not some monstrous thing that has come out of a hollywood studio which would morph and do anything we do have excellent medical resources, and i am confident they will find a vaccine >> the market seems to be struggling with on the way there has it hastened the turn in a credit cycle for parts of the economy? right? you basically have energy, travel, all these areas that are adjacent to what's going to take the pain economically in a few months does it bring the day of

reckoning for those types of companies and what does it mean for risk taking in general >> absolutely. i think for anyone trying to come up with a valuvaluation, ir people trying toget their hand around this. there are so many unknowns there are so many variables. you have the demand shock. what is that going to do to revenue and profits? then you have the potential morphing into a financial shock which i said i don't see that happening yet. if that does, then all those valuations are out the window. and then finally, you do have the oil situation. i have to say that russians and the saudis chose a singularly bad time to go to the mat over oil prices and if i had any leverage with them, which i do not, i would be on the phone browbeating them to say can you postpone this prize fight of yours a few months when the global economy you're not helping yourselves right now. >> they have so many gold reserves in russia, they can handle it. i would also say 2008, let's not

forget, one thing that exacerbated things when oil went to 150 everything else was falling apart. that was the final blow for consumers. >> low oil prices are not so horrible, but at a fragile moment like this when people are worrying about credit and the junk bond sector teetering, it would nice to see stability there so we weren't dealing with three major imponderables at the same time. >> all right thank you very much. >> my pleasure the virus fears are obviously sending stocks sinking. phil has more from chicago on a morning where we have more news. >> interesting news. especially from secretary mnuchin talking about being a bit of a backstop. the government being a backstop for the airlines look at the airline stocks getting a bit of a bounce this morning. but keep in mind, we're nowhere close to getting back what this airline sector has lost over the last month if you look at most of the stocks they're down between 35% and 50% in the last month.

the big question is do they have the liquidity to withstand this huge drop in demand? here is the treasury secretary earlier today on "squawk on the street." >> just as after september 11th, we're committed to make sure our u.s. airlines have the ability and the liquidity to get through this >> that was a strong statement no details in terms of what the government may be planning for the airlines, but as you look at american airlines, it has said that it will be drawing down its international flight schedule by 34% this summer. will americans and other airlines get relief from the federal government that remains to be seen. look at shares of boeing moving higher this company is in focus this is the one-year anniversary of the grounding of the 737 max. before the bounceback, this was a company that lost $125 billion in market gap. getting back today a little bit. but $125 billion compared to a

year ago when the max was grounded >> i saw some good charts where they looked at 9/11 enplanements stocks rallied but sooner and then stocks had to reprice and be more patient before traffic returned do you sort of see that happening again? >> i wouldn't be surprised last week i was at an airline conference in washington, and most of the executives that i talked with, they say this is much more like 9/11 than it is like the financial crisis in '08 and '09. in terms of an impact of people flying you see that in terms of future bookings and that's the concern right now. because remember, people sit there and say well, if they have to cancel flights, no, they're not getting the reservations for june, july, and august that's the concern and if you're not getting those reservations three months out, you've got to start drawing down

your schedule. you can't flip a switch and say this plane is parked, let's get it out there the concern for them is this enplanement as you mentioned and whether we'll see a return like we saw after 9/11 because remember, it wasn't until 11 months later until you get back to the growth trajectory they were expecting before 9/11. >> phil, thank you phil reporting on all things airline related. the capital markets for corporate death have been thrown into turmoil by the events of the last few weeks one question is this the new normal jim casey joins us on the phone. good to have you weigh in on all things related to what's going on in the capital markets, particularly fixed income. let me start with the cost of capital. it's gone up this week is that something you believe is

going to be a long-term phenomenon >> david, we've had a very significant and rapid repricing in credit. just for context, credit spreads have lightened up about 850 basis points we're at 850 in basis points the high yield approaching 9%. so in investment grade, it has been i would say more normal credit spreads are around 250 off. but i think that the biggest thing is that if you go back in time, i would say this is about one of the most rapid repricings we've ever seen in high yield. the question about whether this is the new normal, i doubt that it is, because i think that at the end of the day, defaults are going to be lower than the credit markets are implying right now. the other thing, the amount of

dry powder sitting on the sidelines is remarkable. private equity sponsors that are going to be redeploying into the leverage finance markets equity income markets. direct lenders i think that there are going to be a lot of people that are going to pile into this market >> that's interesting you mention pe there may be a number of bankruptcies i would imagine that's certainly something that obviously is reflected in that increase you're talking about in spreads. and is a possibility is that going to effect psychology as well >> i think defaults are running over the last 12 months running at 3.5%. i think the biggest risk is the energy names energy represents 10% of the high field market. most of the emergency companies are hedged with respect to oil and gas prices

i don't think the pressure on those companies are going to come until 2021. our research analysts at jpmorgan is said they think up to 25% of all the high yield energy companies may need to be restructured if that happens in 2021, i think you could have default rates go up to around 6%, but not out of line with historical norms >> what about downgrades of investment grade companies high grade debt goes to high yield? is this enough buying power in the high yield market if we see a series of downgrades that forces the names out of other portfolios >> that remains to be seen if you take the investment grade market, it's $5.5 trillion in size 50% of that is triple b names. those are the companies that are at risk or downgrade call that 2.75 trillion. if you compare that, the triple

b names to the hotel high yield universe of 1.6 trillion, it's about 170% so we're not going to have downgrades of all of the triple bs, for sure we will have some. i think it will be particularly energy sector focussed, but and the recent example we have is of kraft hines. i think the bigger challenge that is less well known right now is whether the high yield investors will buy the long bonds of investment grade companies if and when they get downgraded >> they typically don't do that right now. they only go about 10 years? >> that's right. they usually like to buy credit at ten years and in. >> you mentioned pe firms potentially being buyers of the high yield paper i would assume they may not be borrowing money to do transactions >> i think that's the ase.

they certainly don't need to borrow new money pe sponsors in last year raised $300 billion of new capital. we think that they've got about $1 trillion of dry powder. if you're a pe sponsor today and you look at the universe of lbo companies, you can probably get similar returns if you buy credit today that you would have gotten if they had done the lbl themselves and owned the equity. which is a pretty attractive proposition. >> it would seem to be, yeah that's an interesting development if it comes to the fore jim, i want to ask about the banks and the funding of revolvers, because that's become an issue boeing pulling down on its and a number of other companies that may have been advised to do so have, in fact, done that what can you tellus at jpmorga in terms of how you see that going, how you'll fulfill the commitments and whether or not you have the necessary reserves that need to be increased if those revolvers are fully drawn?

>> well, the first thing i'd tell you is that jpmorgan stands ready to support our clients to make sure that they come out on the other end of this thing in good shape that's been a focal point of jamie. we have a fortress balance sheet. we'll be there for our clients i know there's a lot of focus on draw downs on revolvers now. if you go back to 2008, and you look at the percentage of companies that funded the revolvers, 99% of them got their money. so even in that scenario where banks were not nearly as well capitalized as today, almost everybody got every penny they were looking for with respect to liquidity. i would expect that will be the same outcome or better now so companies really don't need to draw down on the revolver the liquidity is there the banks are going to fund it and i think there's a little bit of hysteria around liquidity

that is not justified on the basis of the quality of the capitalizations of the banks today. >> interesting and so what are you hearing from your carpet clients and ceos i would assume are focussed as they should be on making sure they have adequate liquidity >> they are -- everyone's focussed on it the topic in the boardroom today is without a doubt liquidity so it's gone from the treasurer's office to the cfo, the ceo and now it's in the b d boardroom. there's a lot of discussion about it i think people are overreacting, and they should be comfortable that the banks will fund the revolvers if needed. >> do you think you're going to need to? >> i don't think that we need to, but we are funding jpmorgan is funding a considerableamoun of revolvers over the last couple weeks as your clients have asked us to >> the idea i assume is if they know it's money good, they may not pull it down for the sake of pulling it down?

>> yeah. i would say some companies are pulling it down just to be absolutely sure, and other companies are testing the revolver just to make sure if they have a problem bank, they know about it in advance but the problems are going to be extraordinarily minimal, if any. >> yeah. >> jim, i know you run a large division there help run it. i think you're working from home right now if i'm not mistaken. as are many of your colleagues what is that like? and is it having an impact in terms of the way that you do business, particularly when it comes to pricing trades and dealing with things in the fixed income market? >> so i break that out, david, into two pieces. i take sales in trading first, which i think the location of sales and traders is arguably more important than banking. bankers are used to flying around and working off their cell phone anyway.

with respect to sales and trading what jpmorgan has done is created satellite offices away from head quarters in new york and london. and we already have staff working from those satellite offices, and it's working extraordinarily well i would even argue that i doubt our clients even know that we have done that or they wouldn't know unless we had told them we were doing that. but in terms of transparency of markets, flow of communication, information flow, absolutely nothing has changed. it has literally worked perfectly. i think if we go to the next step where we are going to take those folks and ask them to work from home, i think it becomes a bit more challenging it is untested at this point but i think that we're very focussed on making sure that we provide liquidity to our clients, and we're going to make sure that even if things slow down a bit, because people are working from home that our clients still get the liquidity they need. >> and finally, you know, you

mentioned pe firms that may choose to use their funds to buy high yield what about new business? can we expect that in terms of new issuance, things are going to be quiet for the foreseeable future >> i think the answer to that is a function of which market you take a look at the investment grade market never closes we -- it never closed in '08 it never closed in '09 and we could do investment grade deals today if issuers wanted the money. the issue is whether they will pay up to get it, because if you launch a deal in the market today investors might say are you desperate to have it, and they try to get the coupon higher, and a lot of companies just won't pay up. that doesn't mean that it's not available. investment grade is wide open and available, and we have access to that market. i would say high yield is a bit different. high yield has had 14.5 billion

of outflows in redemptions in the last three weeks that's the largersest of all tie >> never seen that before? >> never -- the second largest was the taper tantrum in 2013 which was around 11.5 billion. but i would say that despite the outflows, trading has been very orderly given the magnitude of the repricing. and so we traded yesterday when the high yield market was off five points, we traded a billion and a half the market was off 2.5 points. we did probably five times that amount in index trading. these markets are a lot more liquidity than i think people give them credit for and i think that that is going to allow the new issue market to come back probably faster than what most people think in high yield. >> jim, really helpful to have your voice join us this morning as we try to cover not just the

equity markets but the all important credit markets as well thank you. >> any time. >> jim casey, jpmorgan's co-head of global investment banking mike >> all right time now to get a news update. sue has that for us. thank you very much. here's what's happening at this hour the european union is now setting up a $41 billion investment fund to help member states ease the economic pain of the coronavirus outbreak the eu is also modifying restrictions on budget deficits and backing nine billion dollars worth of business loans. france's finance minister is seeking to reensure french employees the government will compensate them for wage losses due to coronavirus restrictions. the government is also guaranteeing 90% of loans to small and medium-sized businesses the cost of that stimulus plan, though, is expected to run into the tens of billions of dollars. travelers in spain are

rushing to get the last open flights to the u.s. and other destinations in the americas before the u.s. ban on travel from much of europe goes into effect a chinese medical team arrived in italy it is part of an exchange of medical knowledge and equipment from china, the source of the coronavirus outbreak to italy which is the current epicenter the team that is the news update. back downtown to you >> sue, thank you. we are about an hour into the trading session. get a check on the numbers and see where we stand after opening up 13.39 earlier today the treasury secretary discussed the fed and the treasury's latest efforts to stabilize the markets. >> the fed and the treasury are doing everything we can to describe liquidity

a trillion and a half program is unprecedented. we're in constant touch with the fed. the discount window, banks have plenty of liquidity. there will be a massive amount of liquidity in regards to shutting down the markets, i'm not hearing that actually i'm hearing the exact opposite from the professionals we intend to keep the markets open that's a sign of confidence to people the people who want to come in and buy? we want to have markets open we've kept markets open through many, many times the circuit breakers work. i've had discussions with all the regulators the markets are working orderly. so no, i heard rumors yesterday which i think are ridiculous about new york city closing down and markets closing down quite the of sit we intend to do everything we can to keep markets open now, i have heard yesterday, i heard there were some issues in off the run treasuries in liquidity. we're working on that. i've heard there's issues in the cp market. we're working on that.

but let me tell you we got 100 things on our list, and as soon as we get done with the speaker on this bill, we'll be going back for more things and as i said, the president wants a stimulus package we're going to do whatever we need to do to support hard working americans who are impacted by this and there's no question there's a short-term economic issue, but we will get through this, and the economy will be stronger than ever when we get through this >> let's bring in our senior economic supporter steve liesman to talk about what the treasury secretary told us. would love to get your thoughts on what jim casey said a few moments ago too. >> there are headlines from the new york federal reserve this morning. yesterday we told you about the $60 billion of purchases that the federal reserve would be doing. basically taking that money which was buying short-term treasuries and spreading it across the spectrum. at this moment what is going ton

is the federal fed is beginning a process doing half of that 60 billion right now. using it spread out across the movant the new york fed say because of the disruptions, the unusual disruptions in the treasury market, that it is now doing half of that today it's affecting that. meanwhile, i've been on the phone with people like casey and other folks all morning. they're saying yesterday's action by the fed only had a limited effect and they are saying the federal reserve needs to be much more. they expect the fed to do more let me go through some of the things i'm hearing from high level people in the financial industry who have their fingers on the pulse of what's going on. sort of talking about the things that mnuchin was saying. they're saying the fed needs to cut rates to zero and do it immediately. the fed needs to do more qe, more of the purchases happening right now. they need to extend that and they want the treasury, by the way, the tissreasury to focs

on things they did in the financial crisis dust off programs and come back in those are some of the things they're looking for regulatory relief for the banks so all the liquidity, all the capital they spend building up, they can put it to work they want the fed to say if you're required to be at 100, we want you to come down to 90% here it's okay. and we're not going to get on you for doing that don't be pro cyclical. don't make things worse. make things better use the balance sheet. these are things i'm hearing from high level folks. quickly, let me tell you what morgan stanley said. they're among those thinking the fed is just buying for time here with what it did yesterday and that they need to be more and will be more, and i'd like to show you quickly the fed fund probabilities if you have that up i'm going to take a look here. 38% chance the fed does 100%,

call a 49% chance, and a 61 % chance the federal reserve does 125 and goes all the way down to zero at the march meeting. so the treasury secretary is right. cpe is something that's come up. the off the run treasuries, so a lot of things that need to be done most people think the fed will do additional stuff. has to have some time to roll things out piece by piece. >> steve, i was talking earlier about how the initial kind of offer of liquidity by the fed, by the new york fed this morning did not have a lot of takers by the banks, and then folks are commenting well, that's because of regulatory restraints they couldn't take advantage >> right >> we tried to spend the last decade building resilience did it work? >> well, here's -- there's a couple problems. there's a structural problem i've read that the treasury market now, mike, is three times the size of what it was in 2008. and yet, dealer balance sheets haven't expanded

so they're constrained you can offer them all the liquidity in the world if they don't have the balance sheet capacity to step in, t not going to happen. and then you do this -- i think this crazy thing there might be a reason for it, but they essentially require the banks to reserve against holding treasuries not really sure why that's the case there seemed to be a number of ways that regulatory relief could be provided with some of the extreme measures from dodd frank right now and enable the dealers to do that job of offering balance sheet it just seems like it's crazy that every time we have some kind of event like this, the fed has to step in and the private sector needs assistance to deal with extreme shocks that you would think it would be planning for. >> meanwhile steve, nice to get a look at your office. >> thank you >> the wi-fi is working great. right? that's part of our new world wfh, working from home steve, thanks. joining us as well, a

professor at john hop kin's university here at post nine, senior fellow at the -- happy friday it's good to see you >> good to be here how much time does the fed have? can we wait until wednesday for some of these things >> i don't know that it makes that much of a difference. at this point you heard the probabilities. i think the market is correctly pricing in a big cut, probably something to zero. my personal view is that what we really need to see -- i have actually probably more faith in the average person than the fed getting this right i think what we really needed to see is the fiscal authorities get their act together quickly they are working together. we've heard positive comments from the treasury secretary this morning, but monetary policy can only do so much. i think they're helping to unjam some of the plumbing problems we've seen they're not going to help consumer spending. it's the nature of the problem that's where the fiscal response is important >> what's being discussed in

terms of the discal response is speed more important than what's in here >> i think they're both important. i think there's a couple of visits to this the first looks like it's going to happen quickly, i hope. that's going to be up to the senate the house is going to vote today. what's it it's going to have paid leave. it's going to have unemployment insurance improvements very important for people who for example might lack paid leave. they're stuck at home but without a paycheck it's going to have hopefully fiscal relief for the states and it's going to be relatively small in terms of magnitudes, hundreds of millions it's just the first trip to the well >> steve, the treasury secretary did say in a couple times that this is a second inning kind of a policy response this week. walk us through some of the recommendations you wrote about. >> well, the main thing is that in a financial panic, money dominates. the fiscal thing is really a secondary thing. everybody is pushing on the

fiscal aspect, but you've got to get the monetary plumbing working properly so it isn't plugged up we've known this as a lender of last resort. that's what central banks are supposed to do they're supposed to lend unlimited amounts against good collateral at penalty rates. the only thing we don't have going is a penalty rate thing. they're all talking about running the rates down but they got the big bazooka ou yesterday and did what we recommended they should do in our editorial. they let it fly, and they should continue to discount anything that is good collateral at penalty rates and provide the liquidity. we did not do that in the 2008 and 2009 period. we did just the opposite you had liesman come on. he alluded to these things of

bank regulations that were put in with dodd frank and the three capital requirements they were all pro cyclical they made the great recession great. and then at the end you had lehman brothers which was solvent and the fed refused credit to a solvent financial institution. that was the killer. so i have less faith in the fed doing the right thing after the lehman fiasco perhaps than jarod does, but at least right now they're right on target. they're doing exactly the right thing. >> so i think that the key thing here is i really think you need to flip the usual fiscal monetary kind of sequencing in the way we tend to think about this i agree with steve getting the plumbing, especially in the treasury market back up and running is essential, and i think is fed is on the case and we'll see. but lower interest rates all you

want make them negative and people aren't going to be to be able to go to the basketball games and restaurants and the theater. this is a very unique problem that we face and there are literally millions, i would say between 20 and 30 million workers out there who have no paid sick leave. if they get laid off, they don't get a paycheck they don't have savings to fall back on. it's a big mistake to underestimate the importance of getting the fiscal stimulus out there. >> i think it depends on the kind of fiscal stimulus. i like the plain vanilla variety as they're doing in hong kong. they're emitting 10,000 hong kong dollars to every citizen. that's about $1300 it's cash. you give them cash and you do it immediately. >> it's a great point. >> that's the way to do this kind of thing. >> we've been saying this all week you don't want that cash to go to the insurance company for the

test right? >> yes >> how much responsibility does the private sector have to support? >> if you look -- >> if you look at the great depression, for example, we had a lot of fiscal stimulus in the programs that went in and the is called the ranchette effect those programs we have them. it was a long time ago. >> you're making good points let me say, i totally agree with steve, checks to households ought to be a top priority who doid that last was bush in 2008 the insurance companies i think that they ought to step up this is a national emergency on the health care side and we're lagging behind other countries in this regard i also think that if people are facing eviction because they've missed a couple weeks of work we might have to ask land lordes to step up and the private sector has a role to play here.

>> thank you very much good to talk to you about and see you again. >> thank you. >> we almost shook hands. >> close there. >> hard habit to break meantime pharma giant eli lilly working on a treatment fort -- for the the coronavirus. meg tirrell joins us. >> chief scientist officer dr. dan sterron democrski. >> thank you. >> the bio company aseller ra, you're deriving antibodies from somebody who survived covid-19 to make a potential treatment? >> we're pleased to have the opportunity to collaborate with this company who has been innovative, moving with incredible speed they obtained a specimen from a spashts as you said, one of the first in the i need who had coronavirus and recovered from it presumably, the reason they recovered is their immune system was able to react to the virus

they were able to isolate cells from the patient's body, identify the immune cells, and screen against the reaction against the virus and we're collaborating with them to turn some of the antibodies into drugs we hope to test in snisht patients. >> your timeline professionally four months until you get into human clinical trials. tell us about that timeline. >> you're absolutely right a project like this in another disease area could reasonably take years to go from starting a project to testing in patients this is faster than we've ever gone, probable faster than anyone has moved we're pulling out all the stops. this is a critical health crisis for the world and lily is doing what it can do to make a difference we have incredibly aggressive plans every day as mapped out from now until the summer when we have to be testing this in patients a few months away. >> you say in your release this could be used as a potential

treatment but also as potential prevention tell us how that might work? >> we will have to see it depends on the clinical data but our goal is to use the antibodies in patients who are exposed to the virus, neutralize the virus particles and help them clear the disease or you could even consider using this at some point in the future in population that hasn't been exposed but perhaps is at high risk, the health care workers who are at the front lines of treating this disease, could this be used to keep them from getting it a lot to learn and a lot at risk but we're excited and really privileged by the opportunity to try to help out in a disease like this. >> given the scale of how big covid-19 already is, and how big it could potentially get, what kind of scale do you see in terms of being able to ramp up how many patients could you potentially treat with the

antibodies. >> that's one of the important roles we play to ramp up the production, we isolate the clones from the individual patient, we can genetically modify them to improve their properties and put them into our manufacturing plants to scale them up millions fold so we can have enough to treat patients. we've cleared out capacity if this works to be able to proceed to the clinical testing and scale up beyond that if we have success. >> doctor, we would love to stay in touch with you as you proceed with this work thank you for joining us this morning. >> yeah, thank you, meg. >> carl, back over to you. >> thanks so much. let's get over to the cme group and the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, carl. right into it, we're going to do the 3ds outlook of the week, data, debt dollar. everybody has been giving me a hassle as i walk around the trading floor, whether it was claims down 4,000 to 211, small business sentiment index, solid at 104.5, university of michigan

took a bit of a breather but 95.9 below its read since october. many say it hasn't caught up to the economy. i'm a pragmatist it's february data, a lot of people talking about these things in february the economy is still holding up better than many people think. we know negative issues are coming with regard to data and one small business all the issues they catch up second, the debt listen, we had $78 billion worth of debt. we had 3s, 10s, 30s, we moved the paper. all i could think of is when you have $4.50 gas try selling a hummer off the runs, i get it. we've gone through a period of years and years, quarters and quarters to pack this stadium, steve liesman, we're going to open the doors and empty this out in three sessions. of course not. intraday lows of 31 and 10s, 69 and 30s, multiples of those.

i understand putting grease in the gears. i'm not sure i understand 100 basis points of easing quickly the dollar is doing phenomenal considering its bounce it's going to be very susceptible to overseas issues and emerging markets back to you. >> thank you very much. virus fears taking a toll on new york city real estate. robert franks has the latest on that good morning, robert. >> virus fears hitting buyers and sellers in new york city real estate, a market that has been in decline for two and a half years 44 open houses last weekend that were empty not a single person showed up. that represented 13% of all open houses, average attendance there down 27% that's according to data from fritz freegan and hallsted saying if buyers feel the values of reels will depreciate because of the virus and financial instability they will postpone decisions to buy on the seller side they're reluctant to put apartments up for sale and pulling listing

because they don't want strangers touring their apartments march is always the strongest month in new york for listings listings grew 9% between the start of the year and mid-march this year during the same time period only up 2%. as we mentioned manhattan real estate seeing eight quarters of declines due to an oversupply and the s.a.l.t. tax changes and the mansion tax. this is the third punch after the one-two punch of taxes and oversupply back to you. >> robert, thank you. couple quick bits of news here new york governor cuomo says the state is opening the first drive-through coronavirus testing facility and the president says he will have a news conference today at 3:00, the topic will be the coronavirus. dow up 5:25. basically cutting the early gains in half. s&p 2547 "squawk alley" starts in a few moments. at fidelity, online u.s. stocks and etfs are commission-free.

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