will be okay. >> josh brown? >> i agree expect bad headlines and watch the reaction of the markets. >> coming out the wind will be at the backs low oil prices low interest rates. >> see how this day finishes up. the dow good for 600 have a great weekend try to "the exchange" begins now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange" on this friday. i'm kelly evans. the market desperately trying to hold on to the gains following the single worst day drop since 1987 we were up over 1300 at the highs. we've been losing steam into afternoon trading and still on pace for the worst week since twagtd and the capstone to the week the president's 3:00 p.m. press conference to reportedly declare a national emergency bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. bob, again, as i said as we try to hang on to the gains. >> drifting lower in the morning after starting big 1150 was the bottom and that's

when we got word that the president might declare a national emergency so if you put up the s&p you'll see it is essentially we turned around and started to go back up right about the time we heard word about that. this is a form of fiscal stimulus s&p down about 15% for the week. what a number. yesterday for the first time we started to see real differentiation in some of the sectors. generally everybody's been down for the week dramatically but yesterday it started to change a little bit we saw cyclical stocks all down more than the rest of the market and generally the situation for the week if you take a look at more consumer oriented names, all down and better than the s&p 500 and talking about walmart or merck or johnson & johnson down 10% here and even, this is interesting, what we used call -- visa and apple still did

better we started to see a change, this happened just yesterday. we'll see what the president has to say at 3:00 kelly? >> looking forward to it bob, thank you very much after the fed's extraordinary move to inject more than $1 trillion into the markets, treasury secretary mnuchin telling cnbc earlier today that the fiscal stimulus talks are going well let's get to steve liesman for more of the process of him and pelosi and so much more. >> yeah. trillion-dollar dribbles and drabbles right now we talked yesterday about the federal reserve with $60 billion of purchases that was supposed to be over the course of a month. $37 billion of purchases across the treasury spectrum, different types of maturities and instruments. we are hearing from several sources that it had some limited effect but not as much as you would expect of yesterday and

they are looking for the fed to do more. as kelly said, we talked to the treasury secretary this morning and he said they're talking to the fed quite a bit. >> i'm in constant conversations with jay powell, the treasury and the fed have many authorities. we don't have the same authorities we had before dodd frank and the financial crisis we have authorities and looking at using those the fed yesterday injected $1.5 trillion in an unprecedented move they announced $60 billion of bond purchases so we're looking at a whole range of alternatives. >> so as you might imagine, we've been talking to senior executives in the financial industry and some of the things they think the federal reserve might do the first is obvious, cut rates to zero. that's a lot of big expectation on the street. they're looking for more quantitatetive easing, to go in and purchase more assets and unclog some ill liquidity out

there. relief for banks to take the ratios, bring them down so the banks can be counter cyclical. making things worse by keeping things so tight. finally, even a comment to buy commercial paper pimco saying we think they'll do whatever it takes to support markets. speaking of zero, kelly, i'll give you the most up to date percentages. there is a 49% chance or 49.5% chance if you must that the fed goes down by 100 basis points next week and a 50.5% chance it goes 125 basis points next wednesday. >> so there's a 50/50 chance that the fed goes negative next wednesday but nothing in the commentary hinted they might do that. >> that's not negative that would go -- now between 100 and 125. so -- let me talk in terms of

ranges because that's the way -- i see how it's confusing there 100 basis is 25 to 50. and zero to .25 is a 52% chance right now. >> wow all right. >> the full call it five 25-basis point cuts. >> they're effectively going to zero and the discussion is what comes next. >> i think that's right. i will say that my best guess is the fed's going to do what it can to avoid negative. i think we gave sort of short schiff to what christine lagarde didn't do the other way, going further negative it makes me wonder if the ecb feels like it hit a limit on going negative i know the fed is not interested in that policy choice. >> thank you steve liesman with the latest. for more on policy response, i'm joined by george callahan.

and quincy crosby is chief market strategist. fred, i'm going to come straight to you because we were just talking about what the fed might do do you think they would never go negative >> it's very unlikely. the problem is not that they wouldn't like interest rate to be lower but don't feel going negative is actually beneficial and i think that steve liesman putt it exactly right. the reason that the ecb didn't lower rates further is because it's not clear that's beneficial at all so the issue with this tells us that monetary policy is limited in the ability to deal with this kind of shock. >> how would you describe this kind of shock relative to the '08-'09 one that you were there? there was a great line by the economist today saying that is solvency not liquidity this is intertwined if it goes far enough how difficult could the response

be to address business operation issues versus the liquidity issues at a climax in '08, '09. >> the fed can make sure that the financial system functions well and that's really what its objective will be and what it was successful of doing in the crisis i do think, however, that this shock is not as existential, not as serious in one sense but very serious in another in that no matter what eventually we'll be able to control this crisis. the problem is that right now it does seem to be spinning out of control and we haven't had a lot of help from the federal government on this so -- and this is a reason i think the markets reacted so badly that thinking that we can solve problems cutting taxes is just not sensible at all. the real issue is how to contain the virus and where do we spend the money to get the minimal effect of the virus on the economy and on death rate.

>> right it is not -- yeah. i would just say it's not so much of cutting taxes but not requiring extra expenditures for people whose income to go to stockpiling, for example, paying medical bills, dealing with kids not being at school and so forth. the markets today -- >> i think that -- >> go ahead, fred. >> limited to the -- the key effects to make sure that we spend the money to get testing done. >> sure. fair enough. all right. so, quincy, two hours until we hear from the president. what are markets anticipating? what are they worried about? we have come off the highs of the session. >> they don't want a repeat of the other night because you saw the futures optimistic going in and then went from worse to worse to worse and then the market just sold off the next day so they want to see the president has a plan, the plan is viable if he's going to be speaking to us have it maybe they told him to

go out there again and expunge that memory of the other night and give the market something more to hang on, something viable. >> is it a dollar figure the market's looking for >> no. >> just, you know, the sp specificity of the market? not a huge amount. yesterday we had scott mynard on "fast money. >> i'm assuming the president speaking with secretary mnuchin, you could see how the market responds to him, how the market is positive knowing that he is working with the other side of the aisle. and i would imagine they're going to say to him, you need to have the market hold up over the weekend because that's the worry is that the market sells off into this simply because you don't want do go long over the week you don't know what the headlines are going to be. the market is a wonderful

referendum as the president knows and if we go into this long and we go in and build on momentum the president realizes that he is -- the market says you are doing an all right job it is a referendum on him today. >> sure. craig, we just heard from carl icahn saying stocks are selling cheaply and doesn't sound like he's jumping in to buy things and i wait to see if there's moves from warren buffett to see that valuations gotten to the point to buy great companies at good prices. what do you say about these levels >> we are value buyers this is a tremendous opportunity. it is a tf trifecta. >> unfortunately we are down 30% in a month so everyone right now is trying to figure out is now

the time to get into this market because the worst outcomes are priced in, the economy and the country will get through this and if so, specifically, craig, where do you think they should put their money? >> generally what got hurt the most on the way down, it may take a few weeks here to form a bottom there could be selling and expect to be back to the all-tie highs by the end of the year. >> how focused areyou on balance sheet health of the companies in these sectors there's probably a big difference of those with a high debt level and those that don't or do you think it's all oversold >> there is a view out there that there's a lot of corporate debt i don't see it i looked for the s&p 500 debt to ebitda, debt to assets, it's far lower than it was last decade. they look very healthy to me. >> you think people can buy the

sectors? >> yes yes. >> okay. let me ask you a follow-up financials, tech, industrials, consumer discretionary some say it's repriced in a period of low possibly negative rates out the curve for the banks. zombie-fication. why are you optimistic that won't happen here for the banks? >> bankers are better than people think they know how to make money in low interest rates, take in money and mark it up three percentage points and loan it out. low rates, in high rates they're very good at that. >> finally, mr. michigan, let's circle back to you then. i feel better as i always do after hearing from craig let's go back to how big the bazooka you think should be to help the economy through the period of time we are not necessarily talking about a business cycle issue but a hit from coronavirus, a strange challenge to address

what's the right package >> so, i actually think that fiscal policy, though it's important in this context, tacks a long time to act and most important thing is to spend money right now to basically have a crash program to make sure to test everybody to make sure that we have hospital beds and so that we can contain this and the key because the most important thing right now is to basically contain this shock. it is true that there's going to be a knock-on effect that's serious and fiscal policy can help with this but if the shock is out of control, then we're in a whole new world and bets are off that things will get better quickly. >> yeah. little bit now to avoid more in the long run. >> i'd say as much as you can do now. it's not just money. it's actually putting the resources in the places that can actually start to contain this pandemic

it's a worldwide issue >> amen. thank you, guys, for joining me. and don't forget to catch the special coverage of the market in turmoil and our special report tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. now we turn to the cruise stocks which are seeing some relief today with norwegian with the biggest gains, right now up 15% but the stocks down 70% or more with some lines suspending global operations and it is a similar story for the airlines, too. look at american, united and delta. american and delta are only a little bit higher. united turning negative on the session. you can see these are declines of 50%, 40% and delta's case over the past month. capacity cuts, ceo pay cuts, hiring freezes in response to the pandemic as worries spread of coronavirus on that note, today we did get some good knows on testing kate >> we will kick it off with

emergency authorization from the fda for high volume test systems. it says it will have millions of tests a month available for use on its systems in hospitals and reference labs more health centers around the country starting drive through testing, something that dr. zeem immanuel saying this morning is tremendously important keeping people out of doctor's offices an update on where the numbers stand as of this afternoon more than 137,000 cases confirmed around the globe with more than 5,000 people dead. even as we see dramatic declines in new cases in china and south korea, numbers are still quickly rising in iran, itly and across europe in the u.s. confirmed cases surpassing 1,700 in 46 states and washington, d.c. with at least 40 deaths so far from the virus. and the world health organization head saying that europe is now the epicenter of the pandemic adding more new

cases reported each day than reported in china at the height of its epidemic. kelly? >> grim milestones there we appreciate it. coming up on "the exchange," coronavirus caused a plunge in u.s. business conditions to record lows according to morgan stanley. we'll ask them what that's telling us about what's to come. a former fed official with a titehat ond a plan for how to miga tecomic shock and joins us on the other side of this break we're back in two. your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk

welcome back central banks around the world boosting liquidity as stock markets crater and causing a scramble for cash. there's six days ahead of the next ratedecision. what more can be done? my next guest has ideas. joining me is bill lee at the milliken institute you had great call last time your point is there's other tools the fed can use here so what do you have in mind today >> i think the key word is going to be targeted i'm a very big on using interest rates in the usual fiscal tool that is the fed and treasury using. but right now the situation is that in this virus bomb that we are encountering we have to target the victims of the bomb and in order to do that we have to first identify them which means we have to test and also we have to ensure that the companys that are affected and the people who are affected are

put whole so that by the time the virus is over they're in a position to actually experience the rebound which means access to small business loans, you know employment insurance, targeted to the virus affected people and we have to remember is a broad based recovery plan is wasting a lot of fiscal bullets. >> here's where i got to jump in because while i know what you're saying, i'm not sure it's effective. here's why there are people who are going to lose their jobs who themselves have nothing to do with contracting coronavirus why? because people aren't going to the ballparks and the guy selling concessions has to file for jobless claims and shouldn't deny them to him because he is not involved with coronavirus. probably able to prove some related hardship but further down the daisy chain it is harder to draw direct cause and effect. >> that's the nightmare of having targeted programs but the alternative is a broad based medicare for all kind of program

and unbounded in costs and totally ineffective -- >> medicare for all is like a $50 trillion kind of thing out there. you could do something like a payroll tax cut, literally cut thousand-dollar checks to families jeremy siegel said declare a tax holiday or $2,000 checks to everyone everyone in the country is rushing to stock up on goods 40% of americans don't have $400 in savings or whatever the figure is. they need cash to get through this time. don't they doe serve it? >> we don't give it to carl icahn. right? hong kong we give $1,000 to every citizen. we give $1,000 to every citizen with a low income level and more to the people directly affected by the virus itself. >> that's a great point. could the government come up with a plan to do that quickly, expeditiously here it sounds like the plan coming together is focused on extending

jobless benefits, the food stamp program and some other things. is something like you're describing feasible? >> absolutely. one thing we haven't mentioned of saving businesses is that the businesses are suffering cash flow problems and they have to have rent relief, tax relief and access to the funding and why the fed moved to ensure the short term lending marks is critical to ensure access to fight banks to get the kind of funding to supply the small loans that are needed by the small businesses. >> absolutely. a couple examples happening in a piecemeal fashion today. the fcc saying major internet providers agreed not to cancel service for residents or for small businesses you have utilities on long island and elsewhere suspending shutoffs in the case of nonpayment and as long as the companies providing the services themselves get reimbursed it seems like the way through the period. >> the reason why a lot of your guests and critics poo poo the

plans is because they like big picture, big bazookas. the small little guys are most affected >> is there anything else to come up with that would more directly help them >> i think the targeted income based rebate is going to be the best way one way to do that is to use the social security payments and add more to it for the elderly, unemployment insurance claims, add more to those and direct channels that we already have to funnel money into that population just boost it a little bit more. >> great ideas bill, we appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. >> thanks for joining me today coming up, morgan stanley's chief u.s. strategist said the injection may have bought sometime but didn't go far enough. plus, the spring housing season is nearly here and looks different because of the

coronavirus. we'll talk about how different ahead. as we go to break, here's a look at the sectors of the s&p 500. energy still in the red just barely coming into the green right now. "the exchange" is back in two. tomorrow. it's a day filled with promise and new beginnings, challenges and opportunities. at ameriprise financial we can't predict what tomorrow will bring. but our comprehensive approach to financial planning can help make sure you're prepared for what's expected and even what's not. and that kind of financial confidence can help you sleep better at night. ♪ with the right financial advisor life can be brilliant. ♪

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october of 1986. so let's take stock of how we got here this is monday stocks plunged to start the week it was coronavirus fears and remember the shocking oil price war between russia and saudi arabia the dow falling 2,000 points and oil plunged nearly 25% we really tanked into the close, as well. the worst day for stocks since 2008 then turn around tuesday there. see? i'm getting the hang of it, guys turn around tuesday! the better food momentarily. rallied 950 in the morning and 11:5 a.m. the mood changed after congressional members said the plan is not there yet. there we go. let's clear it up. this is turn around tuesday. we started strong. lost the gains in the middle of the session. the president said he would visit congress for consideration of a payroll tax cut and stocks took off into the close and it

was the best day since december of 2018. different story, big change of mood on wednesday. the w.h.o. declared the coronavirus officially a pandemic and d.c. failed to announce a concrete plan second biggest points loss ever. 1400 points. flip over to thursday then another historic day and not in a good way with the dow and s&p posting the single worst drop since 1987 the fed's announcement to inject more a trillion dollars into the system didn't help and then closed in a bear market yesterday. so here we are today up more than 800 points but off the highs of the session and up about 900 as i said. this will determine if it's the worst week for stocks since 1987 as companies putt plans in place for coronavirus, new york stock exchange, too, has a backup plan what would happen if the trading

floor is shut down we go to bob pisani for that bob? >> important thing here, the nyse allowing most personnel to work from home traders here on the floor behind him and not nyse employees and i asked what would happen to the floor if someone tested positive for coronavirus. let's listen in. >> if there is an outbreak, we can clean the floor and reopen pretty quickly, as well. that is something. we are not planning to close the floor at this time >> the nyse has a business continuity plan in place for decades in case the floor needs to close for a flood or snowstorm but this plan to anow the nyse to trade electronically without the floor if it needs to the market makers and the floor brokers that are here can participate in that electronic trading and may be limitations around the closing auctions.

there was world war i that caused them to close death of jfk, 9/11 attacks and hurricane sandy in 2012. there is the possibility of closing the floor but keeping the markets open electronically. traders said many teams are splitting up some working from separate offices to avoid having an entire firm self quarantine, a model being adopted by many companies. kelly, you heard from secretary mnuchin this morning they don't want to close the markets. closing the floor maybe but nobody wants to close the stock market and coming from the top and the white house. >> thank you, bob. now sue herera for a news update. >> hello, everybody. here's what's happening at this hour the los angeles and the san diego school districts are closing starting monday because of the coronavirus that move affects 750,000 students it is the late nest a series of school closings worldwide. canada advising against all

nonessential travel outside of that country overseas flights returning to canada limited to certain airports and travelers will be asked to consider self isolating themselves. germany's finance minister is condemning president trump's european travel ban calling the move, quote, grotesque, calling for solidarity between countries in the fight against the outbreak. and the olympic torch relay in greek is halted after a day organizers called off the relay after attracting large crowds. the handover of the flame to tokyo olympic officials will go on as planned next week. lots of moving parts today that's the update this hour. back to you. >> all week, too thank you very much. the president is expected to declare a state of emergency at 3:00 p.m this as congressional leaders work around the clock to hash out any potential stimulus we will have the very latest. the hot spring housing

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just now to deliver a statement at 2:00 p.m. eastern on the families first coronavirus response act we'll definitely carry it for you live following the single worst day drop in over 30 years, up just shy of 900, a 4.2% gain, similar for the nasdaq and s&p the 10-year almost above 1% earlier. that was the highest level back since march 5th. take a look at the xle giving back early gains that's a the energy etf. down 50%, all three on pace for a worst week ever. we have slack sinking after reporting lower than expected billings for this year shares of boeing up about 8% after posting its worst day, yesterday, in 48 years. now the coronavirus outbreak is forcing many schools, sports leagues and businesses to shut down and sending morgan

stanley's business conditions index to 12 in march, near record lows. joirni joining me is chief economist at morgan stanley welcome. >> thank you, kelly. >> how bad is the coronavirus hit to gdp as far as you guys tell here? >> i think there's very real threat and should be obvious now with as you mentioned the school closures and the order for social distancing. very real chance for getting negative growth which would mean recession in the u.s. and that, you know, the "r" word tends to scare people but what i ask folks has the market not been trading of recession the fed responding like we are in recession or that's what we expect to come from them andfiscal policy acting like w are in recession does it matter if economists put a negative sign in front of the growth numbers or not? clearly the leading sentiment

surveys pointing to something nasty in the data to come. >> maybe declaring the observe for the market already, so trying to kind of prevent that event from happening, we have a potential big fiscal statement coming the fed's done a lot k. they help to make sure it's not a deeper contraction is that coming soon enough do you think? >> yeah. i think they act -- monetary policy is able to act much more quickly than fiscal policy but fiscal's gotten on board and seeing signs that that is -- that we have lit a fire under that let's say and, yes, the point is to cushion the blow you're not going to be able to do a whole lot against the virus except from the health and public policy standpoint f. you're the fed you can cushion the blow helping households and businesses trying to weather this as best they can and we expect the fed to drop rates to 0% we expect a major quantitative

easing program to be announced open ended to help be a backstop for financial markets. fiscal policy side as you mentioned nancy pelosi will be making a statement we heard from the house on the measures to propose mostly targeted to lower income groups getting hurt when they can't report to work and then on the -- from the president later today. we think that a fiscal package on the order of, say, 500 billion or so which would be a typical sized response to a downturn would go a long way in helping to at least take some of the nightmare out of what's going on around the u.s. and around the globe of the spread of the virus and help to lay the groundwork for what the economy can look like on the other side of it. >> you expect major open ended qe is coming doesn't really help to put a dollar figure to that but what

are they going to buy? the boston fed last week said buying the 10-year might not make sense whereas in the past that was seen as a kind of an accomplishment of the policy what would they buy and what will it accomplish >> yeah. so it is a good question qe is both treasuries and mbs. so in terms of treasuries, he's absolutely right why would you buy treasuries don't need longer term rates lower but it is about the messaging of pulling out all the stops and so there is some help to do there. especially in terms of supporting sentiment on the mbs side, the much more interesting part of this, the prime rate has not dropped as much as longer run rates and so households are getting a benefit here seeing a lot of refinancing going on, a lot of rise in mortgage applications. but it could be even better if the fed buys mbs and mortgage

backed securities and stops letting them roll off the balance sheet. you can get households a bigger benefit. the housing strategists think it could be about 300 additional dollars in savings per month for households to refinance right now. >> the traditional spread of the 10-year treasury and your mortgage rate is around 1.9, maybe 2 points you are saying the fed can do a big bond buying operation. they could get that spread how low? do you think the mortgage rate below 3% psychologically that could cause a rush of activity. >> yeah. well, we are already seeing a big rush of activity so just think of it as even more than it would be providing there i think they're going to view any kind of modicum of support to the economy that's appropriate to do. qe is of course the most, you know, focused on policy to do but i think that we get an

entire package from the fed, as well they can lower the rate on the discount window to encourage more use of it they can remind that they have the u.s. dollar swaps that they can do you have also got facilities that can be reignited that haven't been used since the financial crisis that can more directly channel credit into even nonfinancial sectors of the economy. that may be needed when you have companies that are just down and out in the leisure and hospitality area and areas of tourism you know it is easy to get these things done and agreedto because there's a human story to this. it is not bad behavior like the financial crisis and why i think we are seeing fiscal policy leaders moving quickly now. >> okay. ellen, really helpful, insightful stuff thank you so much. >> yep. let's get a news alert on

disney now julia? >> disney halting production on its live action films due to coronavirus saying there have been no confirmed cases of covid-19 on the productions due to the current environment they think it's the best interest of cast and crew to pause production on their different projects including a little mermaid shoot expected to begin in london next week. a home alone movie as well as a peter pan movie. both which were -- many which were in pre-production all of this comes following the news that disney shutting down the parks just announcing last night to shut down disneyland here in anaheim as well as disney world, disneyland paris and then disney also dealing with issue of programming at espn on the news that all of those different major league sports leagues are shutting all live sporting events a lot of challenges right now. the shares up nearly 6% bouncing back from declines earlier this

week back over to you. >> thank you, julia. in terms of symbolism, the eiffel tower in paris closing tonight until further notice. we are moments away from the sweeping act helping americans house speaker nancy pelosi set to give remarks 2:00 p.m. eastern time earlier secretary mnuchin joined cnbc saying the president is doing everything in his power to protect our economy. >> the president looking at major stimulus package, whether through the payroll tax cut or another means of delivering liquidity to hard working americans, we've announced what will be about $200 billion of liquidity through delaying irs payments so hard working americans who have tax payments due or small and medium-sized businesses can delay them. i can assure we'll use whatever tools we need to make sure that the industries that are impacted by this get through this >> and now we have learned that the president is set to declare

a state of emergency amid this outbreak let's bring in white house reporter eamon javers and stephanie miller eamon, we have seen choppily market action. stlfs concern this morning that the president might not deliver the goods sort to speak. whash what should we expect to hear from him at 3:00 p.m.? >> reporter: a gusher of news with the white house and the capitol fully open for business in terms of legislation getting done drew hamel, a speaker's top aide tweeting out the number of times that pelosi and mnuchin have spoken, 12 times and after the sixth phone call that the two that notary public's office scheduled this 2:00 p.m. announcement up on capitol hill. this is a case of deal or no deal she's going about an hour before the president of the united states who will be in the rose

garden at 3:00 p.m. as you point out. not clear entirely what he's going to announce there either we do expect national emergency declaration and don't know if he's going to invoke the stafford act or the full powers under the stafford act he suggested yesterday to do the minor pieces of that without specifying what that is. we have been asking aides and senior administration officials all day what the president is going to do, what powers that's going to unlock. no answers forthcoming from anybody here at the white house and this is within of those where we all sort of learn this in relatively close to realtime here. >> stephanie, you think the president is looking less and less likely to be re-elected. >> yeah. last time he spoke the dow and the futures market lost 1,000 points. the confidence in him and what the administration is doing for the economy is rather low right now. i think he's got -- he made an interesting decision, the white

house clearly made a decision to make the statement in market hours and so it has to be more than just declaring a state of emergency. i think they're going to have to deliver something to try to get some confidence back in the market but, you know, the economy's not the market and the reason for the market selloff is just complete lack of hope that there could be an economic sort of rebounder maintain where we were even just a couple months ago and that heading into the election a bad economy is really hard for him to win re-election. >> eamon, the fact that speaker we l pelosi is going at 2:00 p.m., before the president srks that the fruit of the calls with mnuchin or suggest there's friction and now she wants to be the first one to the podium? >> reporter: i tell you what in the old days in washington if there was a deal what you might have is the speaker of the house waiting for the president of the united states to announce it first. and then the speaker to go or follow up simultaneously with

the release of his or her own. that is different era, much more factionalized. the bitter partisanship but, you know, i'd hate to read too much into it. i can tell you that aides right after we and others reported that we were expecting the president to make a national emergency declaration, i talked to awhite house official who urged me in the strongest terms not to report that because in this official's view we simply don't know until the president say what is he is going to say so we just don't know at this point exactly where the president's going to come down on this. we don't know what that means for nancy pelosi who put out a fact sheet last night of the elements that were baked into the deal after those six phone calls back and forth you can imagine the deal shifted quite a bit in the course of the day today and so we're dealing with a moving target in the dark here. >> stephanie, what were you going to say >> eamon, that's such a great point of the timing and the sequence of events the clear lack of cohesion

between the two. i think most onlookers are not seeing leadership by the elected leaders. the senate is gone right? senators are not even in washington anymore the house keeps saying they have to leave as soon as possible and the president, the last time he commented to anyone, the market didn't like any of it and so, you know, people are looking for leaders. we are not even seeing it. it just doesn't give me confidence that any of them are going to be here after this november anyone who's up. >> interesting all right. that's the backdrop for the big 3:00 p.m. announcement and hearing from pelosi first, guys. thank you both. >> sure. we'll have it all for you throughout the next hour or so the busy spring housing season is already unofficially under way. but coronavirus is having a big impact we'll get stats next. as we head to break, check out the most searched tickers on cnbc.com quite simply the dow and s&p topping the list 10-year, apple and boeing

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again the home builders, falling as rates move up a little bit today. d.r. horton getting hit the hardest down 1.5%. the spring season heats up facing big challenges from the coronavirus itself diana olick is here with details. >> kelly, this weekend will be a good gauge of how buyers are reacting, but they did lose that great benefit, mortgage rates hit a record low but moved sharply higher in the last two days back up to january levels several agents have told me they are canceling open houses, others are continuing with lots of sanitizing and even face masks to greet you instead of warm cookies in a quick survey this week the nar said 16% of realtors have seen a drop in buyer interest from coronavirus and one in four sellers are changing how their house is marked, that is, many taking it on-line. red finoffering virtual showings to have an agent walk around the house with a tablet while you ask questions from your home.

we get home builder sentiment next week and adding questions about supply chain issues so we'll get a read on how all of this is hitting the builders not hitting the builder stocks too well today. >> thank you still ahead here, if you're freaked out by the public markets how about going too private equity vanguard is making a big move into that area to bring that kind of investing to the masses t road. more on the rationale for their move after this. nasdaq operates among the largest markets in the world. and our technology powers markets from indonesia to chile. great markets are built on a foundation of trust and integrity, forged through leading edge technology and a smart regulatory framework. as technology advances, regulation must keep pace to allow the markets to evolve. today we see an opportunity to modernize regulation, to make markets more accessible to investors and entrepreneurs of all sizes. from the graduate buying her first stock,

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. welcome back dow is up shy of 1,000 points. we are headed back towards the highs of the session with two events ahead of us speaker pelosi at 2:00 and the president at 3:00 p.m. meantime vanguard which pioneered the move to low-cost passive public index funds is making a push into private equity is this something mom and pop investors want right now joining me fran, principal and global head at vanguard. it's good to see you welcome. >> thank you, kelly. >> so, tell me why private equity it feels like it's not vanguard, right? it feels like this is just not what we're used to associating with your firm tell us why you're making this big move >> yeah. vanguard is long, our number one

mission and primary purpose is to try to improve outcomes as you mentioned for the average ordinary investor and private equity, there's a strong investment case for private equity, but it's largely been reserved for the largest wealth pools and so our approach that has been throughout our entire history is to try to bring world-class outcomes to the average investor and so this is right within our game plan of our history. >> this initially will be provided to institutions, pensions and endowments and foundations as i understand by vanguard, with an eye towards qualified investors down the road you must have done a ton of back testing and are the returns for private equity if you're going to start to say to people it could be part of your portfolio? >> yeah. so we have great confidence, vanguard has a long history of working with outside managers and our process of evaluating managers who can deliver alpha so on the public side, the public equity market that's how

actually vanguard started. people may think of us as indexing, but we started in active management and we're one of the largest active managers on the public side and we think that the same thing can happen on the private side. if you can identify world-class talent like we think we have with harbor vest there's a strong case for outperformance for investors. >> how much outperformance are we talking relative to stocks? what is the simplest way to explain the numbers? >> yeah. the simplest ways are there's two components one is an ill liquidity premium and look at this week and see premiums everywhere, on the run, off the run and assets there is an illiquidity premium because private equity is illiquid that is run at around 2 to 3% historically if you can find a manager that can, you know, get in the top half of performance, you can easily get to 4 to 5% over public equity over a holding period so in a low return world and with bonds around 1%, we think this is an incredible case for

inclusion into portfolios. >> sure. so maybe still a year or two or more away from like i said mom and pop accessing it you're going down that road. before we have to go i want to ask you about something else that our audience may be interested to learn which is that vanguard households during this market sell-off including on monday one of the worst days we've ever had, 77% of them who traded shifted into equities, what does that tell you? >> yeah. so in addition to the private investments, my team and i long have studied investor behavior at vanguard and we've been early on this trend and seeing over the last three to five years not only at vanguard but the industry in general, their cash flow has been counter cyclical, meaning that buying equities when equities are down, we think this has a lot to do with the value of advice and how many people are using advisors, row bo advisors or single fund solutions like target retirement funds and we're even being, you know, educated on the power of rebalancing.

>> well, like you said you're always at the vanguard and private equity is the next one thank you so much for joining me to explain it, fran. >> thank you so much, kelly. >> fran from vanguard. that does it for "the exchange." thank you for joining me i will join bill griffeth for "power lunch" and see you there. >> thank you very much here's what we're looking at as stocks rally back. the dow up about 1,000 points after losing some steam in the middle of the day. this following yesterday's massive sell-off the worst day since black monday back in 1987 the dow is down about 15% this week so far. the major averages officially did end the 11-year bull run yesterday entering bear market territory down about 25% from record highs made just a month ago. of course, this comes as testing for the coronavirus continues to ramp up here in the united states there are now 1700 confirmed