down about 2800. so we have come off of that. we are still down about 2,000 points the dow is right now at 21,128 by the way, the s&p is still holding above its december '18 level and worth keeping an eye on thank you for watching everybody take care of themselves "the exchange" begins now. scott, thanks. welcome, everybody as we continue, cnbc's breaking news coverage of markets in turmoil. i'm kelly evans. stocks are sinking again today as action from central banks around the world has failed to re-establish investor confidence here's where we stand. circuit breakers triggered less than a minute after the open today. oil tanking, at one point below $29 a barrel on capitol hill, the task force of coronavirus is expected to hold a briefing at 3:30 eastern time the senate is returning today to take up the house bill that passed friday night and no vote

is scheduled yet three more state, new york, new jersey and connecticut imposed restrictions on business and limited all evens to fewer than 50 people and just breaking in the past half hour, larry kudlow says the administration would consider sending cash to households as short term relief. let's get to where the action is now with bob pisani on the floor of new york stock exchange bob? >> and kelly, we did see a third trading halt less than a minute after the market opened. off the lows but not by much rallied and drifted back down. look at the intraday 2409 i believe we're well off the lows but drifting a little bit lower in the middle of the afternoon. no bounce in most of the major sectors. airlines doing better but the downside american still down. larry kudlow commenting earlier that the airlines were asking for assistance and no comment of whether assistance to be granted to them. you see, though, the airlines

well off the lows. dow stocks here, generally the dow movers, industrials and bank stocks, faring worse than more defensive names like coca-cola and proctor and gamble there's comments on twitter. it is -- this is the president of the new york stock exchange it is important for the markets to remain open and for them to function in a fair and orderly manner as they have been kelly, i think this is an indication, goes on to say closing the markets would not change the underlying cause of the market decline, would remove transparency, reduce access to money and only further compound the current market anxiety i think this is a sign that some people have been calling for the markets to be closed in general and she doesn't believe that and we saw secretary mnuchin on friday very much reiterating his opposition to closing the markets, as well back to you.

>> a related question to that. now that new york is clamping down on public gatherings and events of more than 50 people, that doesn't apply to the floor of new york stock exchange, would it >> oh no no this is a rare exemption as we reported on friday, the new york stock exchange does have contingency plan and has for decades to continue to trade markets even if the floor had to close for whatever reason, a flood or any kind of situation including a viral outbreak they have told us if that happens they'll do another deep cleaning, they did one on friday and reopened as quickly as possible under any circumstances, the message from on high right at the very top is to keep the markets open kelly? >> sure. but it is interesting, i heard the nasdaq saying that's the benefit of a digital trading floor. i wonder if again if you're the new york stock exchange if it's just one more little push saying do we need the physical

presence >> the counter is they have been operating the floor since the 1860s essentially. quite well and a viral outbreak is not a thing to stop trading in the last couple of hundred years so certainly this is a rare black swan. we noted the nyse closed several occasions but never for any kind of viral outbreak. the markets but not the nyse. >> thank you very much and while stocks have continued to plunge, bond yields started to move higher last week now that the fed cut rates to zero, the 10-year yield sunk down to about 78 basis points. rick santelli is following the moves. because you have to say there's not been as clear of a narrative for direction of bond yields as stocks latly. >> you know, but that makes perfect sense. the fed can do all these things and maybe it is good for the psyche of the marketplace. i'm not going to have that discussion other central banks can throw

kitchen sinks or not end of the day the fact that businesses aren't going to be getting revenues, not sending out bills, that's what's going on you can talk about confidence but the central banks can't address how many cases -- mortality rate, the things the market needs to get arms around on coronavirus to do better pricing. 2-day of twos, 2-day of tens, what the central bank did was pull the rug out yes, easing and going to make the gears potentially turn better, but it really does throw a gps monkey wrench into it. if you look at when's going on with the yield curve, we had many guests say maybe the yield curve doesn't matter it does matter the complexion of the curve gives you an idea of short-term funding glitches finally, the dollar index. maybe not the fifth up day in a row but in this instance might be a good thing. make sure that the rest of the

world having a rotden couple of trading sessions to get the hands on as many dollars as they need to. think emerging markets here. back to you. >> i don't want to catch you flat footed but inflation expectations f. you wanted a benchmark for the fed's moves working you'd think they would be increasing inflation as a sign and opposite is happening today, hasn't it >> well, i tell you what my opinion, i think you will see more deflationary pressures right now but there is little doubt, when the markets, when doctors, when we all get our arms better around the coronavirus dates, mortality rates, different hot zones, once that occurs my guess is that you're going to see demand shoot up and that demand is going to be the type of demand where, i don't care if i have to pay overnight or how you get it here, i want it to here tomorrow, i think we get a spike on the back end of this on the inflation side.

>> doubly dangerous. there was a point made today thank you. appreciate it for now. the markets is responding -- well, let's ask, is the market responding so poorly today because the fed didn't do enough with the emergency moves yesterday or because it's not the right kind of help joining me now to discuss that, bryce doty, neil hennessey and daniel ohn it's greet have you guys all here daniel, you are the economist. let's begin with you do you think that the fed's moves will have an impact at least on the economy in the longer run >> it certainly will have an impact on the economy. chair powell said monetary policy can't cure a virus or fix a broken supply chain but provide support to business and household sentiment and can keep financial conditions

accommodative. yes, i don't think it's a sufficient condition to support the economy out of this likely pending recession but it is a necessary condition. and we'll probably make it not as bad as it might have been. >> bryce, people have made the point that might be true say in the next couple of months, a month or two or six months from now, but businesses face a cash crunch and in that count, is the fed doing enough to help here or really the government to step up with more? >> yeah. i think it is really - >> the fed did - >> bryce, go ahead >> okay. thanks i think the fed was right to hit the panic button and flood the markets with cash because there is a massive need for cash on all levels, both individuals taking money out, running the banks type cash but a bigger problem in bonds is liquidity. there's very few bonds trading right now. money market type bonds are trading poorly if at all

so they need to address that liquidity in the biggest way possible which they're trying to do but, again, you're correct. it doesn't really solve the underlying problem. >> what would? >> of the virus. people can't -- well, you know, we have school break for three months in the summer take one month to do it right now. close the businesses right now rip the band aid off take the economic pain right now to save bankruptcies and job losses and deaths down the road. and if we did that, the stock market could at least try to quantify what the hit to earnings is going to be right now. it is so vague you don't know if it stretches on for six months or two months so that's why we see this intense volatility. >> sure. >> until we get serious of dramatically slowing the spread of the virus you won't find a bottom in stocks. >> neil, the problem with doing that, with saying, okay, take the economic pain right now, is that it will put some companies out of business.

it will push workers to the brink. so you want that reassurance of a backstop i don't know the best way of channelling that especially to the point bryce was making of no clarity on earnings and so forth. you know, what are your thoughts on the right medicine for the economy here and how to invest >> well, i think first of all we have to remove emotion kelly, i've always said if emotion enters the conversation at some point in time it will get ugly and i have been there more than most people and the financial decisions, look at what the fed did yesterday why involve emotion? we are going to have casualties, especially in the small business arena. where they don't have the cash flow, the bars, the restaurants. small businesses we have to somehow try and figure out what we can do there and there are going to be casualties but as you notice all day long all these companies that are shutting down are saying, well, we are going to

pay our workers, we'll keep trying to keep them on the books. this is a situation where apparently we haven't hit before with this new virus but the bottom line is underlying the economy, the fundamentals were very strong. look at the s&p 500 company. they're sitting on over $5 trillion in cash there's $3 trillion in cash in money market funds and building on a daily basis back in 2008, there were underlying financials that were deteriorating. this isn't so today, kelly in fact, the market goes down 2,000 points and it is not even a headline i mean, it's - >> no. you're right once we go down 30% there's headlines. are you comfortable keeping your clients' money fully invested in the market are you taking any additional moves because of some of the selloffs you might not have done before or wait and see how this all plays out?

>> no. i think being fully invested you're fine. you know when you look at 30-year treasury of 1.4 or look at a dow jones yielding 3%, doesn't take a genius to figure out what's better in 30 years but essentially these companies cut in half. the banking sector, kelly, is as strong as i have ever seen it. and are getting crushed. so at some point in time it's going to turn. remember in the last 38 years there's only one 6 down markets. and on average those down markets down 10% 32 of those markets were on the upside and on average, kelly, the upside was 18% >> okay. >> so just don't panic and sit and buy quality and you'll be fine. >> daniel, on the economics of it, i saw a number and curious your numbers, from goldman over the weekend, they think the economy will shrink at a 5%

pace april, may, june and then a rebounr rebound. what is the economic hit going to look like >> that is a great question. we are all trying to peer through the fog of war here trying to understand how much the economic hit is. i think a q2 is looking out to be a pretty severe contraction i don't think we see a rebound quite as strong as what goldman sees in q3 but it does bring up the broader point that all that markets are reacting is a fear of the unknown. i think now we are starting to get a handle around where the known unknowns on all the of this but still a lot of uncertainty, it is not for a few weeks yet before we start to see evening start to see in the harder data what the actual economic impact and the big question of all, how resilient is the economy going to be from

all of this? we were going into the crisis on a fairly strong footing. is this virus ultimately going to be a three-month sort of duration shock that the economy can absorb or spill over to longer to may cause deeper pain? >> we have to go bryce, a final word on this then we have the federal reserve trying to do stuff and the fiscal government. are we just waiting on the numbers to see are the self quarantine measures working and the most for this market >> we are trading off the emotion more than that data. emotion for a portfolio manager is the gift that keeps on giving we had long treasuries anticipating concerns and just starting to stick the toe into risk markets right now we'll probably continue to do so over four to six weeks as we see announcements like what you just alluded to that would finally get, you know, us to a better place to where you can more

accurately project what will happen but in the meantime, you know, trying to lean against whatever emotion is going out there and six months later you look back at some of the trades and going to look pretty good. >> gentlemen, thank you all today. talking about the economy and these markets. don't forget to catch much more of cnbc special coverage of the markets in turmoil and our report tonight 7:00 p.m. eastern. we have breaking news on the airlines now phil >> kelly, we have been talking about sometime about the airline industry looking for relief from the federal government to assist them looking at this huge decline in terms of business people not boarding flights, taking flights, et cetera. losing billions of dollars, they are looking to the white house to provide this type of relief we have a document that outlines what airlines for america is looking for. $25 billion in grants, that's immediate relief for the passenger airlines, $4 billion for the cargo carriers, medium

term, they would like greater liquidity issues to help them stretching out over several months to include unsecured loans and loan guaranties and then finally longer term, some tax relief that would come in the form of relief from federal excise taxes, to the airport and airway trust fund what you are looking at is airlines now putting forward a price tag in terms of what they believe is needed to stabilize the industry which is losing billions of dollars. 25 billi$25 billion for the pas airlines, $4 billion for the cargo carriers, near term and then you have loans and loan guaranties and tax relief. >> american airlines almost went green. this is an airline stock down 60%. united interestingly enough down double figures in the session today. i don't know if you know the whys of the different reaction there or talk more about whether this request, you know, investors are considering it

carte blanche or going through changes? >> i think changes but investors are looking at the airlines saying, the federal government does not want to risk one going under and that is a distinct possibility if this stretches out over let's say a month, two months if this gets dragged out where there is no form of a final decision in terms of what type of aid for the airlines to receive, you will see real financial pain for the carriers let's say a month or two months down the road. they are hemorrhaging cash, kelly. they need something decided quickly. is $25 billion too much might be the white house might say we're here to help, not give you $25 billion in terms of a near-term grant but let's talk about what is possible. so i think any relief rally, if you want to call it that is because people believe that ultimately the white house will step in to assist the airlines. >> american airlines, the worst

hit of all of them, fractionally positive on the news, thanks very much. >> you bet. schools and businesses closing because of coronavirus, my next guest says the crisis to get even worse before it gets better joining me is ian bremer, president of the eurasian group. it's all-out panic, would you say? >> i think the importance here is to understand who has resilience and what the geopolitical backdrop is i think the problem is that unlike 2008 financial crisis, unlike, say, 9/11, where the domestic and the global response was pretty cohesive and pretty robust, that's not the case here so i mean in relatively short order we'll get a handle on the epidemiology of the crisis and then markets i think will start to become much more stable but the political response is really

dysfunctional and that does mean a lot less efficiency and more economic pain for citizens that have to live through it. that i think is where this looks more unprecedented. >> in that sense we just heard from the airlines saying $25 billion, they're asking for help, saying otherwise they could run out of money by the end of the year. how would you like this to be structured in terms of getting relief to the industries most affected ult mattly to the hundreds of thousands of small business that is need that help and to the workers, as well. >> that's right. we have seen very robust responses now from the fed and i certainly think that makes a full-on financial crisis less likely but we now need to see a really big fiscal response and you will have that coming out of the u.s. government in relatively short order and in initial way but if you ask me what may looks like the headline numbers will have to be very large

perhaps a trillion dollars or more by the way, i fully expect that. i think that there is recognition even though it's an election year andeven though nobody particularly wants to give a win to the other side, what we saw from pelosi and secretary mnuchin on friday and saturday i think we see again in much larger form as we get through may because, you know, frankly there are just an awful lot of people that -- great inequality, yes, the economy was humming along pretty well but a lot of americans with respect feeling it and that is -- that's obviously exacerbated and worries me long term more than the health care system overloaded does. we will have a harder time with the former. >> let's talk about dollar figures here in terms of government spending and also to look at the other side of this you know so how much do you think needs

to be put in the economy now and then to ameliorate the deficit, dead or skip that step and have the fed monetize that issuance the first aspect, how big are you talking about? >> again, what we're looking at right now in terms of what's heading towards passage in the senate is probably going to approach $500 billion alone. >> really? >> they don't have an official score on that. i think the vaul u.s. response is well in excess of $1 trillion that's massive with the impact on the long-term deaf sit of the united states but you have to actually take care of americans in a time of crisis and you will worry about the longer term implications for the structural health of the u.s. economy later. we've been more than willing to do that. running trillion-dollar deficits i have no doubt we'll do it now.

>> do you have to have it be deaf sit funded or households fund it through treasury issuance the fed to fund it >> that's a question for the economist, not a political scientist. as a political scientist the important point, arguing over three, six months is simply are we getting this stimulus in the hands of the average americans and small businesses frankly some large business sectors, too there is no question despite how well the economy was doing, they need this dramatically you can put fed rates wherever you want but the reality is that is not going to stimulate spending in this environment we are literally this week shutting down a large part of the u.s. economy and getting that restarted, getting people to trust in traveling again, and going to work again, in consuming again,

is going to take a lot of work chemo, as well, there's mistrust of basic information right now. >> sure, yep. >> making it worse something that the administration has not helped in the early stage of this crisis i think they're doing a better job and certainly we have seen from pence and we have seen from fauci being out in front over the course of the last week that there is more consistent information coming from the government, administration, but the social media, the fake news, the mistrust and the talemics from both sides makes it for difficult. >> last night those -- i was affected by a text chain saying there's a quarantine, you know happening now. not happening. we need to get out in front of this misinformation. ian, thanks. >> my pleasure. let's talk about the grocery stores affected by the concern they're open

hoping to find hand sanitizer, shelf stable food you might be out of luck. frank holland has more for us. frank? >> reporter: good afternoon, kelly. it can take up to five days far grocery store like this one on new york's west side to restock. this is produce that actually just arrived a short time ago and the supplying to get it in the door earlier today, finding sanitizer and paper products and staples like matte and pasta were empty and suppliers trying to get goods in the door, as wilt it can take goods a day or so to get in to stores like this when it comes to bottle water and produce, that's more to like one to two days and depends on where the produce is sourced from and delivered to we spoke to the owner of this supermarket. he said demand increased by more than 100% in recent weeks.

>> disinfectant, tissue paper, paper towels, we are getting restricted on the items. limited supply is coming in and asking customers when they do shop just please take enough far week or two so everybody can get some. >> reporter: and shelf stable foods like eat meal, the sales grown. they're up more than 30% year to date so far sales of beans up nearly 40% and the coronavirus impact could reach other aisles in stores about a third of household goods sourced in china and almost that much of pharmaceuticals and medical goods. back over to you. >> thank you we'll speak with a grocery executive in the next hour here right here on cnbc. first a check on the markets right now. we are approaching half past the dow down 1940. stocks a stocks are lower across the board. still the dow, the s&p having their worst month since october

of 1987. one point today, the dow down 30% from the recent record high. again, right now, down about 8.3% 28 out of 30 dow stocks lower. led by boeing and travelers with boeing down 58% in a month in terms of those two in the green, they're caterpillar and walgreens today. and let's take a look at oil down 8% and earlier broke $30 a barrel that's a 55% drop from the high last april and finally take a look at the cruise lines which are actually in the green today. royal caribbean and norwegian higher after massive losses year to date. now shares of apple down 8%. taking drastic measures to close the retail stores worldwide outside of greater china and for two weeks, the ceo writing that the company had learned lessons from this outbreak saying a lesson is that the most

effective way to minimize risk is transmission is to reduce density and to maximize social distance and saying as rates grow we are taking steps to protect the team members and customers. coming up, the xrt down 10% today as well as more and more companies close stores to help slow the outbreak putting pressure on an already stressed sector and who is shutting down and who could shut down for good net flnetflix may not be as coronavirus safe as you may think. and where inthgs stand in this country. we're back in two. - [spokesman] if you've tried college but never finished,

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from curfews and restrictions, states taking drastic measures to slow the outbreak let's get to sue herera with the latest for us. >> indeed i do, kelly. the world health organization today calling on countries around the world to ramp up testing. the number of confirmed cases nearing 175,000 today with 6,700 deaths cases outside of china outnumber those inside europe now the epicenter of the pandemic here in the u.s., the governors of new jersey, new york and

connecticut saying they're banded together where they feel the federal government is lacking in response to the virus. all three states to ban gatherings of more than 50 people and as of 8:00 p.m. tonight bars, theaters, casinos and restaurants to close bars and restaurants takeout or delivery only. beyond the tri-state area, the cdc recommended the cancelation of events with more than 50 people for eight weeks new guidelines on curfews and social distancing may come from the white house coronavirus task force today with officials warning americans to stay home we'll be honoring all of that for you. for live updates on the coronavirus outbreak, check out cnbc.com kelly, a lot of great information there that people need to access back to you. >> up dating minute by minute. thank you. well, my next guest said weeks ago the government needed to step in with direct aid to businesses and workers

joining me on the news line is larry lindsey. good to have you here. welcome. >> great to be on. wish it could be in person. >> us, too listen you were so ahead of this, larry. if people listened to you we might have prevented this from being as deep and as bad as it is now hong kong was giving people thousand-dollar checks weeks ago. why is the u.s. dragging its feet here? what can be done quickly to prevent a worst hit to the economy? more people out of work than is necessary? >> i think we are going to have people out of work and there's probably not a lot that can be done about that. when you have social distancing. then you're going to see a big drop in the number of people, say, being hired you don't even have to have mass layoffs. less than 6 million people leave their jobs in any given month.

two thirds by their choice, one third by their employer's choice and a lot of those slots won't be filled and probably a big drop in employment my hence is that it's going to be in april. that may be in march there will be a downturn, for sure. >> i think we are talking about we could get a jobs report showing a huge decline of jobs bu but because they're not getting hired. how long do you now anticipate this to drag on? do you think more people will end up getting laid off with not enough -- sure, the fed is acting quickly not clear that's going to be enough >> there's not enough from the federal government side. you had scott gottlieb on this morning and my views are with him on this. he said we are probably going to see peak in cases at the end of april. and so we'll be coming down on the other side of the curve in may. that's pretty good news.

it means you won't quite have an all clear by memorial day but the worst will be over so we will have a big hole in the second quarter there's no question about it our estimate is that you are going to see a minus 5% print in terms of gdp for the second quarter which is a whopper of a hit. >> yeah. >> the problem and the challenge we have is two fold. one is to make sure that people, you know, who need it get the cash but more importantly, that those businesses that get hit hard have enough cash to reopen their doors. you could have what is sort of an inevitable one quarter or two month decline turn into something more extended where we don't come back because a lot of businesses simply don't have the cash to operate and i think that's what been neglected and certainly in the house bill. and i wish that is what is

happening. i think administratively the easiest way is a payroll tax holiday showing up immediately in the small business cash flow but so far that hasn't happened. >> right, no so unemployment rate of 3.5% right now. do you think it goes over 5% >> it could go over 5% right now my guess is 4.5% but it could hit 5% but if we come back, if we come back and reopen and a lot of businesses don't fail, that number's going to come back down again. >> yeah. >> the biggest challenge that businesses had up until like three weeks ago was finding qualified workers so certainly the demand is there for the workers. as long as the businesses and particularly the small businesses who don't have capital are able to reopen, that's key we have to find a way of getting money to small businesses and not just individuals

although individuals are important. >> we'll run out of time your ideal, you say, look, get money to small businesses with an employer side tax cut why not an employee side tax cut, too are you concerned about, you know, what that means for debt, deficit and that in a long run or no? walk us through how much it would cost and what that does to the u.s. in terms of any harm you're worried about if you even are. >> sure. one quarter payroll tax holiday you don't pay payroll taxes, employer or employee, for three months, is a net cost to the treasury of about $300 billion so that's rather small compared to the $1 trillion people are talking about. >> that would be for the year. >> if you had done that two weeks ago i think we would have had enough reassurance in the market we wouldn't need to do

more and certainly it is administratively the quickest way because it's immediate you know it's just a matter of changing your -- the sidze of the check o uncle sam and the payroll company click three keys on the keyboard and all set that by far is the quickest and most targeted way of having it happen i think we will have to do that plus something broader given that we are acting on this all rather late. why didn't it happen didn't happen, i'm afraid, to say, because of politics remember even travel bans are called racist back in jn and then impeachment and then primaries and i think the political system is just now waking up to just how bad the economic threat is. >> hopefully they take heed now. suspend both sides of the payroll tax cut, $300 billion for a quarter and maybe help us out of this and something bigger

behind that. thank you so much today. greatly appreciate it. thank you, sir. >> thank you for having me on. take care. going to take a quick break here coming up, more pain for retailers as many close their doors to slow this outbreak. we have some big, big declines today, gap down 26%. plus, the chamber of commerce sending a letter to congress about the plans to get small businesses back on track we'll speak to them next when you look at the critical issues facing our world, what do you see? we see a billion more people breathing free. we see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. we see homes staying cooler, without the planet getting warmer. at emerson, when issues become inspiration,

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welcome back take a look at shares of chlorox today. jpmorgan upgraded the stock. the firm citing higher than expected demand for products, trash bags, salad dressing and charcoal as more consumers stay home for longer in the coronavirus outbreak speaking of the consumer major retailers across the country shutting stores or reducing

store hours. courtney ragen with a look at this. >> we might say nearly all retailers are closed starting to feel like that it is just going to be the new normal in a country where officials ask us to limit public gatherings, imposing some curfews or shut downs in some cases and retailers that are closed, about two weeks. apple, nike, under armour, lululemon, abercrombie and then smaller names like warbc parker and away. retailers have said that employees will continue to be paid while stores are closed and in some cases that only means if the employee scheduled it's sort of case by case. some retailers are shortening the hours. these are mainly the grocery stores, the type to restock and clean. so these would include walmart and the neighborhood markets as

well as the sam's clubs, publix, stop and shop, trader joe's and some kroger stores gap, old navy, banana republic, operating under reduced hours. for the most part, e-commerce sites still up and running and supply chains largely intact but remains to be seen if that holds up as the outbreak spreads and delivery workers are unable to get to work. some lost store sales could be made up online and varies. think about an off price name like tjx, ross stores, they don't have big e-commerce operations so those could be losers in the scenario estimates are trickling out to try to quantify the financial impact of the closures some are cutting full earnings guidance or full earnings estimates i should say by as much as 20% and again, kelly, going to vary by retailer.

piper sandler saying nike hurt by 2% its earnings from the closures at least as they currently stand. >> right changing quickly courtney, thank you. u.s. chamber of commerce asking president trump and congress for help as businesses deal with shutdowns in the country. in fact, the group sending a letter to washington outlining three actions to see right now joining me is neil bradley, executive vice president and chief policy officer at the u.s. chamber of commerce. neil, welcome. real quickly, if you could, what are the three actions? >> thank you for having me, kelly. three quick things make sure that employers across the country continue to support the employees just like the retailers you were just talking about. three things that we can help them do that one is to suspend and cancel the remittance of all payroll taxes for three months that will give an additional $100 billion a month to employers to help them continue to pay their workers two, for america's small businesses, we need to

immediately give every small business in the country access to the emergency disaster lending program set up by the sba, remove the roadblocks and streamline the process for america's largest employers, we need to work with the federal reserve and immediately create a credit facility to give the larger employers access to the financial liquidity they need to continue operations. we have a simple prince l. no individual or business to go bankrupt because of a disruption in revenue in this crisis. >> sure. really well put and succinctly the first is suspend the payroll tax remittance for a month he said three months give small business access to small business administration loans and then the third to follow up with you on, access to the fed's credit facility. how big do you have to have

access to that what happens to those medium size or caught in the middle here >> what we are suggesting is that the federal reserve and treasury work with america's banks to create a loan and loan guarantee credit facility that would be available to every employer with 500 or more employees so the small business loans would be available for those with less than 500 employees. the credit facility that would be established similar to what we did in 2001 and 2008 would be available for the larger employers. >> working with the fed. does congress have to act on this for the programs to get up and running? >> they do >> hoping ultdn't have to say that. >> i know. yeah restrictions putt in place in 2010 make it more difficult for the federal reserve to create that credit facility they need to loosen the rules on the sba program and we need congress to cancel the collection of those payroll taxes so that employers have it to keep paying the employees.

>> okay. neil, thanks we'll continue to follow the story. neil bradley, evp of the chamber of commerce. thank you, sir. coming up, we'll take another quick short break. netflix down, it was 3%. now it's 7% today. we're going to talk about how it held up relatively better amid the downturn and may not last. here's a look at the markets more broadly today the dow drifting lower, down 2100, that's a 9% decline. just about that amount for the s&p 500 down 242 under 2500. we'll be right back. a golf course is designed to be difficult. to challenge your thinking and test your execution. but great minds are driven to seek out the complex. they see what others don't, from an angle others won't take. they learn that embracing those challenges

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canada closing all borders to noncitizens and nonresidents there's some exceptions including for some u.s. citizens but a drastic move taken by the neighbors to the north who in some cases criticized fo criticized for not doing more quickly here a reaction to the reality of how quickly coronavirus is spreading in this country too. canada closing its borders to non-citizens we'll have more for you as we get it netflix has performed far better netflix only down about 3% it might not be all roses. julia has more for us. >> that's right. people staying home may be streaming a lot more netflix but that doesn't mean the stock is necessarily coronavirus proof. coronavirus is a negative for netflix because they do not benefit from a increase in viewer hours the international growth is at

risk because of rising unemployment netflix has a junk bond rating an negative free cash flow netflix most popular $13 a month plan may seem more worth while if people are spending hours streaming it at home on the downside netflix is about to face three new rivals which will offer free trials hbo max is the only service that will cost more than netflix. it will be free for current hbo subscribe subscribers. back over to you disney polilus launching in eur which is expected to be a big market on march 24th the question is whether these are seen as valuable services

this people are willing to pay up for because they are stuck at home >> we appreciate it. the fed's emergency action over the weekend appears to be taking its toll on the banks. the worst performing sector and the second worst performing sector this year they're all under pressure. it's all down 15% today. the slow down wer seeing in the economy has many wondering, when, not if we'll fall into recession and how long that will last what's your best summary of what you think is happening to the economy here >> it's really difficult to quantify one thing we did try to look at and look at how long did the

recession last in 1918, 1919 when we had the flu pandemic the recession lasted about century months it was short recession normally a recession lasts about a year that doesn't necessarily mean it will be the same length this time it does tell you importantly it's relatively last time we saw this, it was a relatively short affair compared to how long recessions are >> we have your great chart which shows the length of recessions since 1918. there's not a single one on here under six months and the six months has an asterisk the shortest one would have been seven months in 1918 here is my point right now a lot of the forecasters only have one negative quarter the second kwathquarter. is there any way the u.s. can get out of this.

>> that's right. the risks are rising that we will have recession that will last two quarters herein t take time to get through this we didn't have any imbalance it came out of the blue. that's why this could be turned on as quickly as it was turned off. that's why we are optimistic it will be deep but short a lot of time we talk about recession needing a certain duration fp this is sharp enough do you think they would count it?

if it's a recession or not, it's a terrible event for people. it's we're trying to understand how this might play out. we haven't been through something like this in recent history. >> absolutely. what you just spoke about in terms of stores closing, this is 100% decline in sales and 100% decline around the economy that's a very serious event to any of the more gradual adjustments. we really don't have any pr precedent of trying to figure this out they're doing everything in they power to try to flatten out the curve but also in terms of limiting the recession >> what the you think is the single most important data point for markets? >> i think two things that are critical to look at. we need to flatten the curve or see a flattening of the curve of

new infections there's a lot o f issues it's very unfortunate that we're seeing this situation where in some countries t still going up. the number one thing we're watching is we need to see the second derivative in terms of new infections starting to get better as you know in italy and elsewhere, the lockdown, we haven't seen yet that second derivative improve that's why markets are so much on edge. we're watching the policy response we need to figure out not only from the fed but fiscal policy across countries, what is the right design and the right ray to limit the negative impact on economy. various ways to do this but this is the absolutely critical point that we need to see a very, very strong push back on the negativ consequenc consequences >> thank you very much as we mentioned, the markets are off their lows but we're still sinking more than 2,000 points

for the dow. the banks among those the hardest hit. we'll talk about this straight ahead. don't go anywhere. we continue on the other side of this break ♪ yes i'm stuck in the middle with you, ♪ no one likes to feel stuck, boxed in, or held back. especially by something like your cloud. it's a problem. but the ibm cloud is different. it's the most open and secure public cloud for business. it can manage all your apps and data from anywhere. so it can help take on anything, from rebooking flights, on the fly to restocking shelves on demand. without getting in your way. ♪ ♪

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good afternoon kelly will join us in a moment we continue with our breaking market cover at this hour. the dow crashing yet again today. down more than 2100. almost 2200 points despite major emergency action from the fed as coronavirus cases in the u.s. grow and cities and states start to shutdown businesses the big banks are getting crushed today. the worst performing sector of all today. take a look at these here. regional banks, you see them not being spared we'll talk to the ceo of valley national which is falling double digits as you see right there. he'll be with us later this hour >> thanks. here is what you need know there's now 3800 cases of