the nyse closing its trading floor. thursday, march 19, 2020 you are watching cnbc special coverage good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick with andrew ross sorkin and joe kernen. after the ecb came out with that big move right now, the dow is indicated down about 121 points. yesterday was a day to be hold we ended down more than 1,300 on the dow. most of us had breathed a sigh of relief because we had seen

the dow down as much as 123. the s&p is up and the treasury at this point, it looks like the yield has been something people are watching again you don't want to see these move up too quickly it has shown some strength wti, yesterday was down 24%. that was the third worst day ever for oil prices. 18-year low. this morning, wti is up better than 13% last i looked it was around $23. these moves with the dow, s&p and massive moves yesterday in the market, all of us were a little relieved when the 4:00 p.m. bell range. >> i was happier like you. i don't even know what you are thinking at 2,300.

when it comes back 1,000 >> mike spointed out at one poit the dow was down 2,300 points. >> i'm reaching for straws in the ocean but walmart. new highs. close to all-time highs. i know why i know all of that if walmart lives, i think i'm going to live. >> i hang my head on amazon hiring another 10,000 people you saw amazon hiring like 10,000 people. people are still shopping. >> becky, i saw we wrote an article. higher yields mean trouble it is like we write lower yields mean trouble i'll take it oil is up 13%. >> some stability at this point.

oil at 13% >> i love you but. >> i know. i know >> taking the other side of this in part because, look, if you look at the job losses that are literally happening in real time ever day, putting aside the amazon numbers which are nice. the walmart numbers which are nice i can't tell you how many ceos and others that are literally in the process of laying off people while i was on the telephone or are planning to do so today and tomorrow and the next day and the next day and the next day. the idea that you can look at walmart and everybody has to use walmart and amazon right now, 50% of this country is based on small businesses if i sound upset or panicked about it, it is because i am i'm talking to too many people right now who are talking about job losses that are so far

beyond what we are talking about. >> you are seeing it in the claims numbers already i think we have sheppardson on he was more negative he was looking for a 6% bounce in the quarter when we come out of this. >> we have on a restaurant owner who laid off 4,000 employees yesterday. >> nobody wants great retail sales because people are hording. i understand that. that's all implicit in what we are saying >> everymorning, we have this conversation and everybody is looking for a bottom you have to look at where we are in terms of what unemployment rates look like. if you think the market is supposed to project what the world looks like 12 months later. the question is, do you think the world will look like it did

in 2018? that's the question. >> i don't think it will look necessarily like ackman. i don't know his position. i know jc penny is probably not a good place to be it is going to get a lot worst we'll see if we look back at any watershed moment we'll see if there is any moment -- a lot of technicals yesterday were as bad as they've ever been in history on the s&p. there is a lot to be worried about. there is >> we have to be realistic >> you bring us that every day you bring it >> i hate to say i've been right. i don't want to be i want to be so wrong.

>> andrew, nobody nose yet how this plays out if we get to the other side of this and look back to see even the most pessimistic view point. if that turns out that unknown is the greater if at some point we are looking back on this v move, all the players were wrong because they overestimated how bad it was going to be. we'll see. the jury is out on this whole thing. >> the cost of this is so tremendous >> it depends on whether it is three-month, six-month or more loss >> it is also going to be very dependent on what the federal government does. the senate passed the bill this is only the beginning there are a lot of industries

that need help i think the u.s. restaurant industry is asking for $455 billion. that industry employees millions of jobs. movie theaters with 150,000 employees they are putting on the line gm, ford, fiat that are shutting plants because of concerns for union members who don't want to be put at risk then you have the positive side where gm said they would be willing to start producing ventilators. the steps that come in from the federal government will have a big impact and how painful it is for the american people. >> even if you have a v, the cost has already been born on your grandchildren and the treasuries even if you think we recover from this in a speedy way. >> blake is my daughter.

i know you saw her yesterday i had her late in life i have no grandchildren i know of but we are not urging her at 20 to do that anytime soon there was something else i was saying >> we are not trying to underplay the seriousness of this >> we have a team standing by and we want to get to them central banks from the fed to the ecb taking steps to shore up the financial market while washington works on a massive stimulus package steve leachman and eamon javers. eamon? >> looking at all these stimuluses here is what washington has done so far phase one was the initial bill

signed into law by the president. $8.5 billion for vaccines, research and development phase two is $105 billion in sick leave and unemployment assistance that was passed. now they are working on phase three that is up to $1.3 trillion bailout. we are calling this one phase four, the administration has asked for supplemental funding for federal agencies something to keep in mind as well so phase three is what they are working on right now what is in that bill, this is the request now from capitol hill

not finalized what will pass so far, we know there is $500 billion to direct cash payouts to taxpayers that will go out $250 billion separated by two weeks over the course of april there is about $300 billion in small business loans there and relief to hard-hit industries. specifying to the airline industry which will receive support. that is what is happening in washington the white house fiscal side of things, let's go to steve. >> eamon, thank you. it was a very busy night for central banks and central bank reporters. they were burning the midnight oil. let's go through them. at 11:30 p.m. last night, the fed and treasury announced a money market backstop. that followed by 7:00 p.m.

eastern which i believe is midnight in fagermany. calling for a response to the pandemic ecb had thought to be late on this and now is stepping forward. talking about the money market backstop it is open for prime money market mutual funds. a bank can buy stuff for the assets and then go to the fed and finance them and sell them there. the policies providing loans to the banks. it is the third emergency program. we have been talking about this all week money markets have been shedding assets here is a quote that says since march 12, they've lost $51

billion in assets. they've already pushed some funds 2-3% at that threshold, they could put up gates or charge fees. obviously, they wanted to work together to stop that. i've talked to people early who said this could be one of the main things needed to have been done another problem opening tomorrow we'll see if that helps the situation. there is nothing good from yesterday in terms of trade. we'll see if money market backstop provides a floor to the financial system we haven't seen yet. >> steve, talking about a floor. this is dealing with corporations right now, is the unemployment

picture and what that looks like in the next couple of weeks. the cost of bringing those people back on line if and when we can contain this virus. the stimulus plan, i've heard people say we are about to lose the game with stimulus now with some people thinking we have to hold our fire power for two months from now. because in two months from now, we'll be desperate to try to get the economy back how do you think about it? >> that's exactly how i think about it, by the way i know it is a little scrudge like i'm afraid of sending someone $1,000 check now we should give people money to tie them over but where we are going to want stimulus is on the backside of this to get the v-shaped recovery.

reporting at 7:00, i did a newestment of the outlook of the street there is no v right now. how do you create a v? as for unemployment, it will be a big problem. i believe unemployment claims will show the big uptick these states have to get in order. they have to put in place, the people to increase and respond to the demand there. that is a very, very big issue, andrew >> do you want to talk to steve? >> i had a question for eamon there. these checks are they going out to everybody it seems like we can use much more targeted stimulus do we have an answer to that >> they are saying to taxpayers, generally.

so if you pay taxes, presumably you are getting a check. >> we'll see where that lands. they are concerned about workers and labor. you talk about the damage to this all of those people who work relatively close to the edge in terms of making their own rent and delaying stimulus. those people are losing their jobs now and making their rent this month >> get the money to them but this idea of pouring it out. this has not affected everybody at the same time it is like katrina hit and we are going to send a check to p em people in san francisco. >> there is an idea this this will be means tested >> right it should be if you are still working, you should be okay.

>> telling us something about the prospects. founder and chief economist. david, with you, you figure there is some risk in the bond market right now i think eventually you've got some equity positions earmarked but you are not ready yet? you go very slow and watch the pandemic play out? >> yes, when we talk about risk, we talk about the reality that there is a ton of people needing to raise money it is a leveraged system the bonds are where they need to go to raise cash i think prices that don't reflect anything close to reality. so that bond market is kind of what you'd expect with a run on assets there for, it is trickling all

the way through. you are seeing things down gold, a lot of people are asking why is gold not performing through this it is all the same reason. it is people selling what they have to sell that issue works itself out through time and dealing with the fundamentals of the pandemic we do intend to deploy cash but we want to average it in after we get normalization in the bond mark >> we are seeing articles that sounded really dire. we've seen other ones with a pretty sharp rebound even your work has to be totally dependent on getting a handle on this i'll make the point. china, we didn't think we could do some of the things we did i'm wondering whether at this

point we've done a lot spring break in florida notwithstanding. we have done a lot in terms of social distancing. have we done a similar amount or do we still have more to do? don't you need to know that? >> we do we are all making forecasts on very, very incomplete information. no, the u.s. hasn't locked down like they did in wuhan or korea. in korea, they did rampent testing. we still have very incomplete information. i'd be pretty confident that right now we are still on the wrong side of the epidemic where the rate of increase is still on the rise rapidly once you have an effective lockdown of various forms. once you get it in place, you should start to see serious improvement of numbers >> in italy, the rate of

increase of new cases in italy have slowed. the trend has slowed i would expect in a week or two that have come down. provided that we maintain the pressure and the distancing. that means closing at every facility, restaurant and bar it does work it creates an enormous void. that's why i've got a hideous gdp. minus 10 or 12%. i do think the pandemic will be over or almost over by the second quarter i think a rebound is of a reasonable bet right now, we are on the wrong side of the data and that makes me nervous >> so we don't get back 10 or 12 >> i think that is unlikely.

a dead weight or a permanent loss a lot of spending not happening now, will be caught up in double or triple time in the period when the thing is over if you miss going out to a restaurant once a week, you are not going to go out 13 nights in the second quarter some of that activity is gone for good >> what if the government goes crazy and throws so much money at this. should we be worried now about the effects on the deficit about one of the paramount worries go ahead >> i don't think we need to worry about that now we have an immediate crisis in front of us. it impresses a loss on us and our children and grandchildren i think we have to deal with a

very real risk of a fundamental break down in our economy. we are not going to print money at the sale they did in zimbabwe, generating hyper inflation. that is absurd in the u.s. context right now. with he have to deal with an immediate storm. the cleanup is painful and expensive. we don't know where the costs will fall but that's not a reason to not take the action to deal with the storm. i'm expecting congress to get their heads around this quickly. >> i 100% agree with you i want to say i believe we need to spend money and a lot of money right now. it will cost our grandchildren maybe you get a v out of that later on with the economy. i'm not sure we'll ever make up for that cost. since it will be hard to balance

in the long term in a stimulus perspective. what we've been talking about over the last 24 hours, to say, have we already lost the game in terms of trying to keep people on payrolls? if we have, when and if do you come in with stimulus. if the goal is to keep people on payroll and you are losing that battle, what do you do next? >> you either pay businesses to put them back on payroll or you pay individuals so they can still make their rent and mortgage payments and continue to live. looking at the states unemployment numbers, it looks to me the order of magnitude in most states seems to be about 10 times higher that means next week's jobless

could jump to 2 million next week that's where i'm thinking we'll see the jobless claims >> do you believe that becomes exponential a few weeks after that >> i think not because the hospital ality industry has shut down this week that's where we'll see the biggest spike. with jobless claims of 2 million in that order, that jolts more drastic action income or business support, we do want restaurants and bars to exist in august and september. we need airlines and hotels to exist. all of these businesses will need direct support, which does mean borrowing what is the alternative?

we wake up to a waste land in august >> thank you we had the economist on today. we had to talk to ian about all of these thank you. andrew, on the plus side, a lot of these plans, including marco rubio. a lot of these plans do motivate businesses to keep the payrolls. if you are going to get loans, the portion towards salary should be a given. looking at futures this morning. we saw the dow up by over 500 points this morning. when you were talking about the ecb first coming out but that has changed pretty drastically down over 300 points a moment ago. now looks like down about 250 points also watching the dow ledgers.

ever day, we are seeing a new group. this time jpmorgan, cisco and ibm. new york stock ex change is shutting down floor trading taking place on monday and going straight to electronic trading two people tested positive saying markets are fully capable of operating in an all-electronic fashion meantime, hedge fund manager bill ackman is calling on the president to shut down the country to contain the coronavirus. >> caller: if we continue the way we are operating, until a vaccine is manufactured and distributed, we will go through

a depression-era period. as many as a million americans will die it is just math. hell is coming i never had this experience in my life. the closest is saying things are coming bad stuff is coming. this is a feeling i've never had. a tsunami is coming. you feel it in the air >> also saying he plans to buy stocks and that some have already bottomed clearly calling for steps being take inn china and south korea to try to put this behind us given how far behind we are. pictures and video you see of people in the streets all over this country still moving about in some places as if nothing is wrong at all, i think is leading him to believe that this is going to stretch out longer than the china experience and there

for look like the italy experience >> you heard what ian said, we want the bars and restaurants to be there when this is over he didn't say june or july economists are ratcheting back rapidly what they anticipate we are still operating in our school district that we are closed for the next week and a half they'll reassess this. the big question is, will the kids be back to school at any point? >> i think the working assumption right now the way the market is, is that they are not. >> we'll have doctor gottlieb, we heard ian saying even italy may be starting to get its arms

around this. it is worth noting that among investors was early and right about this literally about a month and a half ago hedging his portfolio talking to people aggressively about the miss undunderstanding. >> i wouldn't want to come on if i was short. i would come on and say, i wasn't short >> you are not the first person to mention that. we are continuing to watch this the treasury department has been rolling out plans to try and help those hit the hardest that's the small business community. a lot of those are being told they have to shutter right now and then come to find out

insurance claims will be honored. because their claims won't be covered. joining us now to discuss this the chair of the insurance regulatory group eric, what is happening? you don't think about this often but acts of god, pandemics are frequently not covered by insurance claims >> i think there is an expectation gap growing. i think many small businesses thought they had business interruption that would cover them now the realization is setting in that these are excluded in two ways one, business disruption damage requires physical damage to the property a tree coming through, a fire. that is not going on here. secondly, many, many, many of these policies have specific

exclusions that exclude pandemic, epidemic, viral categories of claims that is important because the insurance industry needs to know what it is underwriting to these would be massive uncertainties. working with the regulators. many of these excluded in those. many starting to understand this you see various discussions. we are talking about this. looming about how to fix this both retroactively and perspectively. >> to fix it, does that mean regulators might step in and say they may discover this >> new jersey legislature tried to begin a stature that would have undone.

that is unfair companies haven't reserved for this or put up stress testing for this they specifically excluded it. some proposals they have floated in congress and they would ask you to go forward and ask you to work as a third party administrator. evaluate as though there was no exclusion and then the federal government would step in and make the payments even though they had been excluded >> that seems like an interesting way -- >> go ahead, please. >> go ahead. >> it seems like a good way of using the exiting infrastructure to make sure you can get those claims paid out as soon as possible go ahead, the proactive? >> the proactive would be confronting the problem about why isn't there more business

interruption that is something that would look along the lines of a tria solution, which is the terrorism risk insurance ask the federal government stepped in, gave them a cap and a backstop so that they could go in to the marketplace and write that insurance there has been discussions floated about that kind of an undertaking. you look at these times now and they do feel like national solution times i think we are at an historic time this would only be a third time in my remembering lacollection e seen the government step in. the first would be in terrorism,

the flood situation and this would be stepping back to make sure this insurance would go forward. >> thank you for your time today. we'll talk to you soon coming up after a quick break, we'll talk about bailout prospects for boeing stock fallen about 68% year to date that was one i was watching yesterday. trading at 90. it rallied back above 100, anything grasping at straws facing a global dropoff of demand as well as the grandioun of the 737 max planes. mohamed coming up. how much further can stocks

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>> boeing shares have been plunging losing 70% of their value. phil joins us now. >> the question is, will that bail out go through. we've heard from eamon earlier the question is how quickly does everything get passed and how quickly does it go out to boeing and then to aviation suppliers i've heard people say, boeing shouldn't get $60 billion. no that will be dolled out, if you will, to a number of suppliers in the aerospace eco system. that is the whole idea that you want to keep that from collapsing now the primary focus is that aid package and getting some sense of what will happen with deliveries once we start to see the coronavirus impact fade

globally it may be months down the road before we see that happen. yesterday, dave calhoun had a conference call with executives and assured them the game plan they have laid out is one that they believe in in terms of, look, we know right now we are not building the max by the end of the year, it will be ungrounded. in the third and fourth quarter, there is a path boeing is pursuing here. it is not just a case of give us the money, give us the money i know a lot of people have looked at this and said, how much is it down? 67% something like that. yesterday, it was down to $90 a share. i think this was looking at being down almost 70% in the

last month they are not out of the woods, they do believe the path forward is based on this $60 billion almost being a bridge. then the question is what happens with deliveries? >> right unbelievable the max and then this, phil. >> joe, the delivery question is an open-ended one and scarey there are some estimates that every month you see deferrals from airlines, it could cost the company up to $4 billion the question becomes, is that $60 billion enough of a bridge as you've been talking about, nobody has any confidence in this right now >> okay. phil, thank you for that for more on what bow egg and other ceos can do, bringing in

president and ceo of boston consulting group rich, what are you hearing from them >> caller: i think everybody is feeling this is an unprecedented situation. the level of urgency is extraordinarily high the first thing is, take care of your people. a huge focus is on how to work remotely and handle travel now a huge amount of focus on business resilience and how to make that sustainable. just talked about one of those situations people are still doing that. you go further down the road you look at china. we see companies that are a bit ahead of that.

i think we are a few steps away from that. >> talk to us a little about the employment situation and how the ceos you are talking to are thinking about that. whether to keep people on the payrolls or let them go. i had too many phone calls yesterday literally laying off and making plans to layoff while i wason the line >> the reality is right now, when you see massive revenue dropoffs, they'll be left with no choiz others will fight to preserve their teams and try to do this in ways to understand the pain they are causing employees are looking at the rebound. when you talk to these executives about the time period if this were to be something that goes on for let's call it

an optimistic ly two months or maybe longer let's say this is a two to three-month period from these companies, purely playing it by the numbers. forget about the morality or people's feelings. would it be cheaper or more expensive to keep people on the payroll when you think you will have to hire many of them back >> i think it depends sector by sector and the amount of the dropoffs many will try to take short-term action and stay close to people and let them know as soon as things bounce back, they'll bring them back. others will try to hang on and be supportive of them. we are in a different place than many others. >> you say you are in a different place, what do you mean >> we have a client base is

strong we are helping a lot of clients to try to navigate this. we are reliant to our team i do think in industries, you've got enormous pressures two months is probably manager the problem now is we don't know how long it is we need to start focusing on how we are going to keep this to two to three months of this extreme social distancing and figure out how to get people back to work and school i hear a lot of focus on the financial repercussions and what we need to do there, which is real >> hey, rich >> caller: there is a threat of moves to do that >> you said we need to focus on getting people back in the next two to three months, i don't

think any health official believes that could be those are the big questions right now. i guess there is a huge economic price. we watched it with china there was a point when they said, no more. we can't take anymore. >> caller: i think that's right, becky. i would also add that it is not about making the decision, no more it is what do you put in place in the next 60 to 90 days and in the face of much more aggressive testing. operating in schools, taking temperatures, tracking those that might be at risk. there are moves to be essential. >> rich, are you working with companies? you see what is taking place in south korea.

workers are taking taking your temperature on the way in. in israel, they are tracking people using their cell phone. seeing if you've been in contact or in the vicinity of someone who tested positive. you do a lot of testing on technology with this >> caller: things have broken so fast that up until now, that hasn't been the focus. >> the ramp on that is extraordinary. the ramp to do that, to get the equipment and technology in place. you look at some of the malls in south korea, walking in and before they get on the escalator, security people there to put on people's head. do you know if american companies are gearing up for that yet >> caller: i think they are

gearing up right now, we are in the deep social distancing phase. that's exactly where it needs to go we need government leadership too. helping to set the ground rules around privacy concerns and the ability to require people to stay home if they are at risk. we'll need work between government and business. they'll need to turn government very fast. in a year of this, it is hard to see how an economy plannagmanag through a year of this you get far beyond that, it becomes an enormous cost this is the next step in the journey. >> thank you for calling in. coming up, the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund weighs in at 8:00 a.m. eastern

futures right now indicated down but not out. down about 205 points on the dow, nasdaq has been green but barely at this point big banks this morning, to give you an idea. moderate losses there. can you watch or listen live or on the go on the cnbc app. we'll be right back. music: [ 'watch me walk' by spencer ludwig ] ♪ can't take no class about this ♪ ♪ i'm on my way i'm on my way ♪ like this! ♪ hey! to start your investment plan, find an advisor at massmutual.com sfx: [ mnemonic ]

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if you are just waking up, oil prices have a big 12% gain this morning $2.51. but -- that's the good news, i guess. crude is $22.85. if you do the math, it was

almost under 20. things we haven't seen in i guess maybe 2001 maybe after 9/11 was the last time we saw oil at those levels. >> yeah, it was 18 years. >> here are some of the best performing s&p stocks. the best performing s&p stocks those are all bounces, obviously. halliburt halliburton. for the latest on the race for the vaccine for the covid-19 disease i guess you could call it university of maryland's school of medicine. doctor, thank you for joining us this morning we're all trying to figure out what the duration of this situation looks like from a health perspective and invariably from an economic one. how do you see it? >> you know, we're reluctant to

make any guesses at this point about how long the outbreak has lasted -- will last. i think you heard from dr. fauci and others that we're doing everything we can as aggressively as we can we do think it's important, though, to have a medium term and long-term vision to be working in parallel on very specific treatments and vaccines that can help mitigate this in the months and perhaps years to come. you know, we don't know if we will be living with this virus, for example, on an annual basis the way we do with influenza >> beyond rendecefhere, is there any other drug out there, other experimental things that give you a sense of optimism right now? >> yeah. again, it's very early times, but what researchers are doing is very aggressively looking at drugs that are already approved for other indications because

those will be the drugs that we can use the fastest. >> so can you give us an example. >> cloroquin or hydroxy cloroquin which has been given to billions of people over time for malaria treatment. it's shown very good effect in the laboratory and animal models against this virus and so studies are going to be starting looking at cloroquin both to try to treat people with covid-19 but also to potentially be used as a prophylactic to keep people who are exposed from getting covid-19. >> i've been asking a lot about the drug that you've mentioned over the past week and a half and we've asked scott gottleib at the fda about that. he's been less optimistic about that drug. do you know why? we're going to talk to him a little bit later >> yeah, i think it's better to get that straight from him

again, it's a drug that's been used it's a drug that's been well-tolerated it's a drug that we have now we would like to do this as part of trials so we can learn and it can be more informative to us going forward. >> doctor, nobody knows about the eventual progression of this i mean, it is a plague it's terrible. worldwide. we don't know about reinfection. we don't know seasonally whether it comes back every year, but we have 9,000 deaths globally right now, currently, that includes china, south korea, iran, italy, united states. 9,000 deaths do you foresee millions of deaths in the united states before this is over? >> again, i'm reluctant to make predictions. i firmly believe that the very aggressive social distancing and other strategies that we are

implementing now will reduce the deaths. >> right, but would you -- would that surprise you? do you think it's responsible to say that in a crowded movie theater? >> it would not surprise me, and we need to prepare for the worst. one reason that we would like to flatten the curve, and you're hearing a lot about that, is because we do have excellent medical care in the united states what we're worried about is overwhelming that system >> right how do we get there from 9,000 -- when we're talking about china, which is where it started, and south korea, and it's terrible in iran, it's terrible in italy and it may get bad here how do you get from 9,000 where some seem to be on the other side of this, perhaps. as i said, maybe it comes back how do you get to millions you don't think that -- maybe we should be scaring people, i guess, so that they don't go to spring break, but you don't think that's maybe overstating millions of deaths in the united

states >> i don't think it's over stating it again, i don't think we understand, but if you look at it from an attack rate perspective and this virus is transmitted easily, we have 350 million people in the united states and you do the math, if 70 million people are eventually infected with this virus, again, if there are multiple waves of this virus, then you can do the math and then you can get there. >> then you think we're not going to be able to -- we're just unable to do what china did. that's certainly possible. they were able to lockdown we have 300 million, they have 1.4 frtrillion it's a different situation that would be a real tragedy, although when you have -- do the math like that, obviously the flu, the influenza in a bad year can kill a lot of people as well, a number that many of us didn't realize beforehand.

okay we'll ask dr. gottleib about that maybe -- hope springs eternal that we flatten the curve and that we don't lose millions of people that would be truly tragic if we were unable to have the resolve to prevent that. >> doctor, thank you so very, very much for being with us this morning. becky, over to casa quick. >> thank you, andrew we'll talk to mohamed el erian he's been talking to us on a daily basis. his market calls have been right to a certain point yesterday he was talking about how we might be facing a depression, not a recession. we'll get his thoughts when we come back. let's check out the dow futures at this time we have seen wild swings dow was up by more than 550 points, the dow futures. after we heard from the ecb and the big moves they're taking there from stimulus. right now giving back the gains, the dow is down by 260 points. that's a swing of more than 750

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street yesterday this morning wild swings in the futures. meanwhile, president trump signing the coronavirus relief package to expand leave but not everyone in washington is on board. we're going to speak to senator marsha blackburn about her no vote. the numbers rising across the country as the coronavirus continues to spread. we're going to get to the latest news on the pandemic as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box. this is cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin we've been watching the markets very closely this morning. if you were hoping for a respite, hoping things would calm down a little bit well, not yet. at least not this morning. watching the futures all morning long for a while we did see the futures in positive territory after the ecb came out with

moves on stimulus injection. the dow futures at that point were up by 550 points but now you see the red arrows are back, at least for the dow and s&p 500. the dow down by almost 200 points s&p futures down by 16 the nasdaq is still hanging in there but up by only 16 points right now. of course, this comes after a big down day for the markets yesterday. into the session the dow had lost 1338. that's a decline of over 6%. that was a relief given that the market was down by 13 points the 10-year note looks like it's yielding 1.16% oil is another market we're watching that was under extreme pressure yesterday. the oil markets, wti i thi was down by 24% at its lowest level. that qualified for the third worst day of trading ever. the lowest level we've seen for oil prices in 18 years wti falling yesterday all the way down to $20.37 this morning up by 11.5% back to

22.71 for wti. andrew. the new york stock exchange trading floor shutting down for the first time since super storm sandy and will fully move to electronic trading that will happen on monday the exchange is making the move after two people tested positive for the coronavirus. president trump signing a $100 billion coronavirus aid package. meanwhile, the federal reserve took another page out of its 2008 crisis era playbook last night invoking its emergency authority to create a backstop for prime money market mutual funds. steve liesman joins us with more on that. but first let's get an update from washington. we'll go from casa javers to casa liesman i like it here got no delays. it seems easier. eamon, you're looking good.

>> reporter: thanks for that, joe. let me walk you through the defense production act that's an act with extraordinary powers over the private sector that the president invoked yesterday. it's a world war ii theory of government control of industries it gives the president the ability to have businesses prioritize and accept contract for materials and services incentives include loans, loan guarantees, direct purchases and purchase commitments it establishes a volunteer pool of industry executives with key areas of expertise who could be brought in to serve inside the government to handle all of this it allows the government to put employees inside private companies. a whole range of authorities now given to the president of the united states. he has resisted doing that until yesterday. we're not sure exactly in what

way he's going to use those new authorities, but he did invoke them yesterday so they are available for him now. during the course of the day today we're going to see the president going to fema headquarters later in the afternoon. we've got that 11 a.m. coronavirus briefing at the white house to watch out for they've been having major announcements every day in those briefings. so we'll wait and see where this all goes today as they work on the fiscal response here in washington, the phase 3 bill that's still in progress up on capitol hill as the president is gathering the new authorities. let's go over to steve and get a sense of what the fed is up to steve? >> reporter: eamon, a busy night for central banks. they were burning the midnight oil. 11:30 p.m. the federal reserve came out with a back stop for prime money market companies and other institutions tried to raise cash levels that created an outflow for money markets. at 7:00 last night the european central bank came in with a $750

billion euro, $820 billion plan to purchase through the end of the year corporate and government securities. just the latest installments by the way, that is the third emergency powers act enacted by the federal reserve. two of those now coming with backstops from the treasuries exchange stabilization fund. as i reported yesterday morning, there was more to come the desf there could be more to come where the treasury backstops fed programs to liquify and backstop the financial system a lot of talk, everybody is thinking, what does this look like how does it impact the united states economy what is the rebound and recovery look like? these are very early days for estimating as joe was talking about, very hard to know how to estimate it because you don't know what the government programs all will be, the stimulus programs. we have an estimate, a running estimate from 8 economists here are the medians i want to show you how the virus will slam the u.s. economy

minus .12 and then a big minus 8 medium estimate in the second quarter. then a modest rebound. both of the next two quarters are above the trend rate of growth but they're still not a huge v-shape background. i want to show you the estimates for the second quarter there's what everybody was talking about yesterday, that big 14% decline estimated by jpmorgan and then you can see there are other estimates in there all the way down to mark zandi at moody's has the lowest estimate. one quick comment from jpmorgan and their estimate we expect spillover effects to last in q3 counter acting the support to growth from activity coming back online crucially we expect a vigorous policy response to partially offset this negative feedback. we have to start looking at what this looks like in part bus if you lose a service in this quarter, do you go to disney twice? do you go to disney twice?

do you go to the markets again because you didn't go? that's going to limit a v-shaped recovery that we can have. >> right it's a small u i still will be okay if it's not a perfect v. just looking -- >> agree agree. especially if it lasts. >> hu? >> especially if it lasts. >> what if it's an l. >> don't want an l >> don't want an l i will tell you that jpmorgan, i meant to say this, minus 14 in the second quarter, plus 8 in the third. they're more optimistic. they have more of a v shape built in. >> hey, steve, when you are looking at the estimates that many banks and analysts are putting out, what kind of stimulus packages or fire power from the government are they incorporating into this analysis >> reporter: some are estimating percentage points of gdp

i didn't look right away i just got bank of america's estimates and i'll look what michelle myer is building in and jpmorgan, andrew many are starting to build in pretty vigorous stimulus packages from the government >> okay. joining us now to talk, thanks, steve, more about the worldwide economic response about the coronavirus and whether it will be enough, allianz chief economic advisor, mohamed el erian. any change, mohamed, in how you're feeling since yesterday and i know that, you know, we are not perfect here in terms of social distancing and trying to contain this thing, but there are some signs around at least where i am where there's not a whole lot of activity going on do you think we're going to be successful in trying to -- what we're trying to do, what we're doing, minimizing the overall

infection rate or at least spreading it out >> good morning. let me just start with the context and relate to what steve just said. it's false precision, guys, and we should stop it. i'm an economist by training, but this notion that we can give precise numbers to the impact of an unprecedented shock, we don't know how long it's going to last we don't know how deep it's going to be, we don't know what the restart itself looks like. the doctors themselves don't know the notion that we can give a precise number is absurd and we should stop doing it we should just say it's not a v, it's not going to be an i but it's somewhere between a u and an l, probably a u, and the duration of the bottom part of the u we don't know. that is where we should stop and talk about what's needed rather than give precision. as to how i feel

i feel somewhat better, but let's be clear, the patient, which is the economy, the markets and society, is still in hospital it's still vulnerable. the reason why i feel better is twofold. one is i speak to medical professionals every day. we are trying to starve the virus from the ability to spread, which is a good thing. and the second reason is we had a third laser focus fed action we are going to probably have two more and i'm really happy to see that the ecb had responded. i feel better but the patient, us, all of us collectively, we're still in the hospital and we're still vulnerable. >> okay. and of all of the government and fiscal programs being bandied about, we need to do all of them and even that is, what, necessary but not sufficient or we're getting to the point where we'll be able to figure

out what is sufficient >> so first we wanted a financial deleveraging to be minimized and not make the economic deleveraging which is inevitable worse we have to understand the economic deleveraging is worse, people are getting laid off, it's awful but that's the reality. we don't want on top of that a financial disorder so it's great to see the central banks trying to backstop different facilities it's great to see them have more of a laser focused line but it's there and i comment them on that when it comes to the economy, we have to be disciplined we have to be disciplined, joe, and understand what policy can do and cannot do it can certainly protect the most vulnerable. it can certainly support balance sheets it can certainly help critical sector it can not restart

let's be clear going in. why are we doing it, when and what is the exit strategy. otherwise it's completely chaotic. i'm worried about the long-term social ramifications about some of these given how idiosyncratic they are, what taxpayers are going to get or not from them and what kind of politics that's going create i'm also concerned, as i've been talking about all morning about the number of ceos that i keep talking to you about they were laying off people as i was on the telephone with them, and i'm trying to think through the ramifications or the implications of what can be done today to keep them from making that decision or whether that decision has to be let go at this point, whether it can be

taken care of retroactively or in the future when you want to restart the economy. as you said, restarting the economy is something that's very complicated and difficult for policy makers. >> it is this conflict that an individual ceo has don't layoff people versus individual responsibility, i don't know how long this is going to last every single bit of my income statement and balance sheet is getting hit is a hard one. people have to solve it. i think collectively we're better off if we saw collective responsibility but that's easy for me to say. i'm no longer a ceo. on the bailouts we have to understand boeing and the airlines are not exceptions. this is notion that somehow travel is not an exception it is not. it is a leading indicator of what everybody else is feeling and is going to feel maybe not as extreme, but

restaurants, hair dressers, barber shops, i have a whole list of sectors that have been shut down completely just like travel so before we rush to rescue sectors that we think are exceptions, we have to understand that this is a general shock, not just nationally but globally, and we have to have principles that guide our policy intervention. >> mohamed, that's a really good point -- well, just on that point. you know, movie theater owners are now asking for it, too you kind of go down the line of the industry what kind of rules of the road would you suggest if we are looking at which industries to save, who to bail out, who to give loans to? >> always start with more of a technocratic answer and then let politics play in you start with those that are national security and employ lots of people you have to focus on what really matters. you have to make sure that when you come in you don't bail out

every single element of the capital structure because if you do that, the amount of money you're going to introduce. that's contributed to where we are today. you have to have an exit strategy what are we going to get for it? how do we the taxpayer share in the up side? so there are issues we can do going in and do that in a room rather than create policy and respond to various requests because you're going to create so many precedents that's going to be totally chaotic. >> all right, mohamed. thank you. >> thanks for having me on. >> you are very welcome. restaurant industry, that could shed millions of jobs as the coronavirus keeps people from going out to eat. kate rogers joins us with more. >> reporter: good morning. with more than 20 states requiring restaurants to do

takeout and shelter in place, the restaurant industry is being hard hit they project some $225 billion in sales could be lost over the next three months leading to between 5 and 7 million jobs lost the group says the restaurant industry employs some 15.6 million people challenger, gray and christmas estimates the number could be higher by their projections, par and restaurant closures could cost or significantly impact 9.4 million jobs new data from black box intelligence shows why they're seeing traffic declines so far with up scale, casual and fine dining restaurants being hardest hit. companies are facing new worries about workers even showing up in the face of a spreading virus. nearly 1/3 of restaurant operators are facing staffing challenges ranging from sick employees or those who don't come in to avoid being exposed to the virus the issue is going to continue

becky, back over to you. >> kate, thank you very much joining right now is an entrepreneur in the restaurant industry cameron mitchell who is the ceo and founder of cameron mitchell restaurants. they operate 37 properties in 14 different states cameron, thanks for joining us today. >> my pleasure, becky. >> you're in the unfortunate position of having to shut down operations rapidly i believe on monday you laid off about 4,000 employees. explain what happened and why. >> well, it's interesting. two weeks ago on march 3rd i was in washington, d.c., to meet with my bankers. i expressed we were up 7% same store sales, record profitability. this was march 3rd tomorrow, march 19th, we will be completely shut down i laid off 4200 people on monday we kept about 300. some of our florida restaurants

we're still open and trying carry out and so forth, but we have since closed our florida restaurants and by friday our total of 4500 associates, as we call them, will be down to 6 in the home office. we have a couple of hr people and a couple of finance people still around, but that is it and so our company has been completely eviscerated in the past 17 days >> how much money were you bringing in? how much revenue on a monthly basis before this? >> we're a $260 million company with 4500 people nationwide. we have restaurants coast to coast from la to new york and throughout the country >> so you have gone to congress and asked for some help. i think the restaurant industry overall is looking for a bailout of $455 billion. people look at that and think that's a huge number why don't you explain what it takes, why are you looking for that money and what it takes to

keep it running. >> i have three points the industry employs 15.6 million people, 10% of the u.s. work force, not to mention probably double that because of all of the ancillary businesses, farmers, grocers, delivery people, et cetera, that support our industry secondly, the charities that our industry supports across the country, which really help the most in need that we can't support going forward. so really i think it's about 20% of the economy and the work force in the united states that we can get back to work and a lot of these are primary, low income workers that need the money, need to get working we think about the hotel industry and the airline industry, they total up to about $420 billion they're very important to our economy and they need the help but the restaurant industry is more than double that. and i think that the national restaurant association asked for congress in their package is

reasonable you think about it now i'm not a movie operator or a barber shop operator, but those places can close down, shut the lights off and literally come up and open the next day a restaurant cannot do that. we're a cash business -- >> why >> -- we need for us to on board 4500 associates takes a tremendous amount of time, to hire them, hire them back, get the restaurants clean, order in all the product that we need, to cook it from scratch, to get ready to retrain our people. takes a month to open a restaurant it's not as simple to say, we're going to be open on the 2nd. everybody come back on the 1st it takes hundreds of thousands of dollars to open a restaurant today from scratch so that's what we're talking about. that's kind of the bailout some of the money that industry needs. these restaurant operators without the help of the u.s. government will not be able to reopen we want to get our economy

started when this all passes and i think the restaurant industry itself will have a major impact on getting our economy back up and running. >> we had senator marco rubio on yesterday, and his plan that he's been working on and hoping to get some traction with is that you would get the banks to give loans to restaurants and other small businesses all over the country with the understanding that whatever amount of that loan was actually made -- was actually used to keep payroll on, to keep your staff employed, would be eventually forgiven by the government would that sort of plan help you? >> well, it would help us, it would certainly help our employees. that would be great. my primary concern, i appreciate what the government has done to help our people, we've been able to keep health insurance through april for our people we've made our payroll through

this closedown, but the most important thing, i want people to realize i am home hunk kerg down with my family, we need to know from the federal government that we're going to have an opportunity to reopen. we need the capital to not only help us through this time where our restaurants are down, our rents are piling up, our bills are piling up, our debt -- and with no revenue and then the capital we need to reinvest beings to reopen and get up and running. year' a tough group of people. let's hope we get through this sooner rather than later if you look at the chinese example, it's all going to come

back at once which is to say even when you open the restaurant on day one, in week one, in week two, week four, week five likely it's a slow ramp. it's not going to be, i imagine, about rehiring the entire staff on day one as much as i would like you to not know-- i would like those staff never need to be rehired because i want them to remain on the payrolls, but how do you have that cycle the more people you can rehire and the more people will hopefully have a paycheck and, therefore, want to go to other restaurants. >> i totally agree with you. and, you know, again, in the previous segment, whether it's a u, sharp v or whatever i spent a little bit of time on the re-opening plan because i've spent time on the close down plan at this point in time, but i'm sure we'll have some sort of

staggered reopening along the way versus all at once but as much as we as a country can kind of say, okay, four weeks from now, everybody, we're going to get started, let's go school's back in session, et cetera, so i think as much as we can do as a government and as a country to start, that would be great. it is going to take a little time to ramp there's no doubt about that. restaurants open up at -- go ahead. >> go ahead. >> i was going to say, as a restaurant, you know, prior to the shutdown we were down 35% sales. it's hard to operate with that kind of hit to your sales volume so when we open back up, you know, if we open up at 50% sales, 75% sales, we're going to deal with that we'll be more prepared for that this time, but eventually, you know, i believe in the american economy, i believe in the american people and we will get back to normal here. the question as mohamed said, we have no idea how long that will

take. >> your sales were down 35% because people were heeding the warnings of staying home and social distancing before the government shut everything down? >> correct all of those issues of getting everybody to work and facing all of those now our sales are down 100% because i put the company to sleep officially >> cameron, just talking about some of the things i've seen here in new york, some of the restaurants here, i know the restaurant operators have been negotiating with their landlords to basically say we shouldn't be paying rent during this time or at least paying greatly reduced rent are you getting those deals as well too how long do you hold on to these locations? >> yeah, same thing. we've reached out to every single one of our landlords. we've received pretty much positive response from all of them we understand. we're not expecting rent payment. we've asked for roughly four months at this point in time we're thinking three months now plus getting reopened, but we only had two of our landlords

say, no, this is your problem, this is your issue i think there's a number of issues, policies in multiple states and the government to kind of curtail that, make sure landlords can't evict tenants along the way for non-payment of rent during this time and deal with that, but we just can't when you have no sales, you can't pay rent that's all there is to it. >> the landlords who said knno, were they -- >> you don't have to name names. >> one was a reit. >> then do name names. >> two were small private owners the one reit said we'll work with you but we're not sure what relief we'll give you. most of them have all been great. this is -- you know, this is america. people need to lean in together and work through this. i think our landlords understand this we're not trying to dodge. i've never missed a rent payment

in my life i've never missed a loan payment in my life i've never missed an interest payment in my life we don't have contingency plans in place for the absolute unimaginable 17 days ago i thought our business was in great shape and doing great and today it's closed. >> cameron, want to thank you for your time and appreciate any updates you can give us along the way, too. >> thanks, becky i appreciate being here. >> good luck a lot more on "squawk box" when we return the futures have been all over the map. let's show you what's taking place right now. it looks like we'd open down but not nearly as down as we have on some of these terribly down days meanwhile, we're watching boeing this morning as well yesterday closing down over $22, 17 perce% this morning "squawk box" returns with a lot more in just a moment. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box.

futures at this hour, just looked at them and we were actually looking at the futures instead of the implied open. now the implied open is where the futures were we are down 300 points futures down even more as you can see. 406. we've got to decide which we want to show there's implied open mike santoli has more on the latest market moves. good morning, mike >> good morning, joe that's really indicative of just how this market is basically jumping all over the place at a moment's notice. the futures trading at such a big divide from the closing index level. yesterday finally broke down around 2350. we were getting too close not to at least try this has not been a market that has rewarded a fine comb reading of exactly all the little clues that the market gives out, but i can point out a few things from

yesterday. one, the market did rally late to close below the 2018 low level. we had fewer lows. we closed if you think about it a week's market time where we've been trying to hash around a similar range. i would point out speaking of volatility, the vix on a one-year level, it's amazingly elevated it's above 70 but it did not make another high. it's trying to say maybe this is an area where we get the selling tiring out a little bit. by the way, an 80 vix statistically implies about a 5 to 6% daily market move. if you move less than 5% the vix is probably going to bleed down. that's the crazy times we're in now. one final thing is it's really about the nonstock markets can it calm down the funding

markets? if so, there's a shot at maybe the stock market finding some better footing >> mike, you do have a home! i thought you lived in that marble envelope down at the nyse. >> reporter: right they evicted me from the pod there. yeah, just waiting for them to deliver the big plasma touchscreen here. >> i was going to say, do you miss your telustrator? you're talking with your hands. >> are you crashing at a friend's house or something? none of that was true yesterday. you're -- >> about moving there? >> you have a place. that's good. >> reporter: yeah, well -- >> meantime, the senate has approved what they're calling phase 2 of the coronavirus the package includes free testing for the virus as well as free paid emergency leave. joining us on the phone is senator marcia blackburn, one of

eight who voted against. senator, how are you >> i am doing well thank you. >> lots of questions given the health and now economic crisis can you explain it >> oh, absolutely. one of the provisions in the bill dealt with medicaid and testing. for one of the states it adversely impacted our state tennessee is one of those. another had to do with the paid family leave this is something that our small businesses, and i talked to dozens of small businesses, and this is something that makes it very difficult for them. i was talking with a small business owner last night and going back through the

provisions with him. he said, there are a lot of people like me that are just going to have to lay people off. and so they were in the process of looking at that the reason being, it was something that they could not afford to do and they were not prepared for this they had healthy businesses. we are very concerned about keeping the small businesses open, keeping their doors open getting money to independent contractors, sole proprietorpro. we have a lot of people that work in the entertainment touring business, the venue business i talked to theme parks yesterday and, you know, there are some concerns with how this was going to adversely affect. i supported the unemployment tax system that unemployment system is in place, it has immigrated that would be my preference. i think we have to realize with

$8.3 billion, that was the first package out. then the second package was the 50 billion that came through with the emergency declaration this was the third package and now we're working on a fourth package. >> that's what i was going to say, senator this is going to be a patch work of packages over time. >> that's correct. that's correct. >> but part of the question, therefore, is -- and maybe you knew going in that this was going to be -- that being against it meant it was still going to go forward so i don't know -- >> we're still trying -- that's right. we're still trying to work these provisions out i was talking with cms last night. we are trying to work out this paid leave so that these small businesses do not have to shut down we need them to be able to come roaring back because we have got

to defeat this this came out of wuhan, china. they knew they had it. they were not transparent. we've all heard those stories. we've got to defeat this, and we've got to preserve the economy. >> let me ask you about a different idea i had written a piece in "the new york times" yesterday, senator, that effectively suggested we create a bridge loan for every company in america full stop and this could cost trillions as long as you keep 90% of your employees on the payroll. senator schumer was just asked about that plan that i wrote about on morning joe i want to play you what he had to say >> i'm all for it with one caveat that loan can be forgiven if and only if they keep all their employees. >> all their employees >>. >> yes you don't want to give them a loan and they fire half the employees and they're out of work it's something we're working on. mark warner on our side is doing

a good job coming up with a plan we've been talking to not only mnuchin on this and powell but it's a very good idea. >> my plan kept 90%. he's saying 100% what's the number for you? >> this is something that you've -- i think you look at things in three buckets. you have health assistance, food assistance and financial assistance, and what you need to do is stabilize and assist to the point that you can bridge this gap because these companies did nothing wrong. now zero interest sba loans is something that we are working on right now so that people have the ability to bridge this period of time whether it ends up being two months, three months, six months. >> do you believe those loans should only be made if companies keep their employees on the payroll or are you prepared to give those loans irrespective?

>> there should -- there should be criteria and there should be criteria which keep people on the payroll. i have talked to some businesses who said, look -- especially in the restaurant industry. we've got i think it is 15 million people that work in the restaurant industry every day, and they have moved to patio seating. they were doing maintenance and repairs that needed to be done inside the restaurant. they were doing certain cleaning they had set up takeout and they have adjusted to keeping people on the payroll keeping people working is an important component. >> what do you make of bailouts for larger companies obviously we're talking about the airlines, we're talking about boeing but we're talking about the cruise line industry which is not technically domiciled in the united states, doesn't pay taxes in the united

states what should happen >> well, what we have to look at is not only those major employers but the system that supports them. i'll give you an example when you talk about the cruise line industry, then what about all of these inspirational motivational speakers, these entertainers and musicians that are coming out of nashville and out of tennessee and they have lost every single one of their bookings for the next four months their income went from healthy to zero. so you can't just segment it. >> the politics of bailouts are ugly the distrust and anger it can create is remarkable when it come to the cruise line industry, i am 100% with that and the knock on effects and the need to mitigate the question is, do you say to

the cruise line industry, we will back you if you move back to the united states and you decide to pay taxes? or do you believe we need to get equity stakes, war rarant or convertible debt to protect it >> we work today onwhat is going to be this third package, you're going to see conversation around these various industries. airline industry included airline cargo and of course general aviation is a component of that. and you -- i think there will be talk about how we collateralize those loans and how we work with them because what they've asked for is a $50 billion safety net, if you will, and the particulars, chairman wicker is

working on this. some of us at commerce committee, we continue to talk with these airline ceos. what we want to do is make certain they can continue to fly and then as soon as we get on the down side of this virus, that we are able for them to come roaring back. and, again, we have to bear in mind that this is unlike the packages that came in place after katrina or different storms or after the '08 crisis and the package in 2010. we have to remember, this is something that came out of another country. it came from wuhan, china. they withheld information and it has caused a global pandemic. >> senator, i would prefer to put this in the katrina category, prefer to put it in

the 9/11 category. but if you put it in -- i agree it's not 2008 because we can describe that's a manmade crisis the question, therefore, is in a natural disaster, what taxpayers should be getting for their money or not and whether there should be some kind of up side if, in fact, the economy returns. there's obviously so much commotion and investors out there who say, look, the airlines spent billions and billions of dollars on buy backs with no rainy day fund or kitty and we are prafrt advertising the gains and socializing the losses >> correct and as i said yesterday on the floor, sometimes it is good to pause and see where we are and i know my buddy art lappert

who you all talk with periodically, sometimes you need to just take a deep breath and as we move -- and as i said, this package that came through yesterday had problems that i felt like were going to pick winners and losers and i do not want small business to be a loser. i do not want the non-extension medicaid states to be a loser. i am terribly concerned about the health of the' con my and the health of citizens and want to make certain that the decisions that i make is going to be there to help us rae cover in the most expeditious fashion. >> all right senator, want to thank you for joining us this morning. always enjoy talking to you and wish you a lot of luck over these next days and weeks. >> well, we're, working hard on it i also have the bill with senator menendez that would

bring pharmaceutical manufacturing back to the u.s., and this is something that i'm continuing to work with the white house and the vice president's office and leadership -- senate leadership on >> another project to discuss next time we speak appreciate it very, very much. got to send it over to the quick bureau becky. >> thanks, andrew. let's take a look at the futures because the situation is worsening this morning remember overnight we had seen the futures up -- the dow futures up by 550 points that was coming as the ecb makes big moves. we've given all of that back and then some. dow futures down by 500 points a swing of 1,000 points. when we come back, we have more on the coronavirus and your money. we'll be speaking with legendary investor ray dale yes of bridgewater investments.

you can always watch us on the go on the cnbc app "squawk box" will be right back. we see heating breakthroughs clearing the air for billions. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved.

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two companies out with quarterly results are commenting on the impact, potential impact of the coronavirus

darden restaurants beat estimates on top and bottom lines. same sales and it's withdrawn forward guidance due to the virus outbreak and said so far this quarter same store restaurant seals are down 5.9% backward guidance is much more accurate as yogi berra once said, the predictions are hard, especially about the future. home builder lennar said it was pulling guidance accenture beat its estimates. meantime i want to get the

latest headlines on the coronavirus pandemic >> globally, total cases topped 219,000. more than 8900 people have died in the u.s the number of cases stands at 9400 with 150 deaths and in what could be a turning point for the outbreak, china now reporting 0 local new infections it did report new cases but officials say those were from visitors. as calls grow louder for young people to follow federal recommendations to self-distance to try to prevent the spread of the virus, we're now learning about how they're impacted according to the cdc, of the 508 people hospitalized by the virus, 20% were between the ages of 20 and 44 12% of those in intensive care were in that same age bracket that's considered the millennial generation. here in new york, the state with the highest number of cases, coronavirus cases stand at more than 2300.

positive results jumped by 24,000 more people are being tested governor cuomo also said he thinks the actual number of cases, even higher than what we now know becky, i'll send it over to you. >> rahel, thank you very much. joining us right now is dr. mcmcclellan. he's with the duke school of business and he's the former commissioner of the fda. >> good to be with you. >> what rahel just said, this idea that there are zero new cases that originated in china as of today for the first time, how significant is that? >> it's significant. it shows that with, treem by important steps, non-medical steps to control the spread of the virus, it can make a real difference china is different from the united states but other countries including singapore and cree a have also made progress the kinds of steps that we've implemented in recent days approach the kinds of

non-medical social distancing isolation steps that have made a real difference in some of these other places. >> you know, your head kind of gets turned and flipped in different directions every day yesterday singapore announced it had new cases. i saw a couple of other countries that did as well that was very concerning you go from super concern to maybe it's better news in china. >> well, it is concerning. there will be more cases especially here in the united states as you just said, there's a lot more testing going on here that's really important to get a handle on just how much exposure we have in different places around the country so the number of cases is going to go up significantly here. you will see blips in cases and other places around the world, too, like singapore, but that is good when it's a sign you have greatesting in place and the capacity to do immediate follow up the other thing that i would be watching besides the increasing number of cases around the united states in the coming days is the increased number of

hospitalizations and serious cases. that's a marker of just how -- hopefully the steps that we are taking now will show some slowing in the growth of those cases in the coming days in many parts of the country >> when do you think this will peak >> i would make a comment at this point about when exactly it will peak. it depends on what we continue to do. so more diagnostic testing, more steps towards the ones -- more steps like the ones we're taking now around physical distancing and social isolation it's really hard, but i think we'll be able to see how much impact that's having in the coming days to next few weeks. behind that, we've really got to accelerate our efforts to develop treatments since that's

what's ultimately going to get this virus under complete control. >> dr. mcclellan, because we don't have a denominator and we're late on testing and we're trying to figure out the denominator, that hospital anecdotal evidence from emergency rooms or icus is a big deal. >> it is. >> for us to know. can we take any -- i mean, i would hope that since we haven't seen just the huge ip be flux that we're worried about, i would like to take that as a positive, but what if a lot of people are asymptomatic or minor symptoms and they're not even self-quarantining, then i don't feel quite as optimistic go ahead >> exactly that's why the steps you were describing, millennials, others to take steps to socially distance, to follow the recommendations from the surgeon general and others in government is really important right now. so how well we do with those

steps is going to determine whether we can slow down the overall incidents of cases and slow down the number of serious cases, which are going to show up in hospitals and emergency rooms so we've got to really watch in the couple of days. >> my big millennial fans are angry we're saying it's the millennials down in florida. it's the generation z i think is what they're called. spring breakers. they're self-quarantined in their basement i'm told. >> it's really all-americans that have to take these steps together we're all in our cities, our towns, our neighborhoods together so what we do together really matters i've seen lots of positive examples as well, people following the social distancing rules, helping each other out, connecting that's really important in the next few days. >> dr. mcclellan, very quickly general motors ceo, mary barra, offered to start making vent

lators in the factories that aren't being used to make cars good idea? >> good idea to explore. now is the time to think about the surge capacity that includes ventilators but it also includes telemedicine so for people with less severe conditions, geting treated outside of the hospital. and maybe looking at other options, like unoccupied hotels for more intermediate cases, people who need monitoring and support but maybe not hospital or ventilator care >> dr. mark mcclellin, we appreciate your time. >> thank you. coming up, bridgewater associates ray dalio joins us for his take on the market volatility we've been seeing. plus, the latest on the bailout prospects for boeing it's back below 100 pre-market and down over 6 points facing a global dropoff in the demand for air travel as well as the grounding of the 737 max planes much more after the break. stay with us

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we see eat emerson,mulating when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. breaking news. central banks on both sides of the atlantic digging deep as the coronavirus ravages markets around the world. meantime, president trump

okays billions of dollars for paid sick leave and more virus testing with potentially a trillion dollars on the way for american workers. and the floor of the new york stock exchange, some of america's biggest malls and detroit's big three automakers will shut down operations to stem the spread of the virus ray dahlia and gary cohn will help us make sense of the volatility on wall street, the government's response and when investors can expect to see a light at the end of the tunnel cnbc's special coverage. coronavirus crisis and the markets in turmoil begins right now. good morning, i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin u.s. equity futures at this hour seeing some of the lowest levels of the session since we got here, but maybe before we were here i think it was even lower through the night. now indicated down 402 points.

397 on the dow for a while this morning the nasdaq was positive but indicated open positive indicated down 60. the s&p indicated down 43 or so. treasury yields have moved above 1% and are still there 1.13 and the other big story today, oil prices, which are rebounding from multi-year lows, 18-year lows, now up almost 9% but at $22 a barrel and check out the dollar take a quick look. we don't always do that. as you can see, dollar index has been gaining throughout mostof the pre-market session. meantime, in just the last 24 hours we've seen more historic moves by the federal government and bankers in europe to fight the economic damage of the coronavirus. we've got team coverage all of it along with an update with boeing which has seen the stock plunge it's taken billions of dollars

in government assistance we're going to begin with eamon javers on the new emergency funding we're hearing from congress eamon. >> reporter: good morning again to you, andrew i'm e67mailing with a senior administration official that's saying that information is coming back. they're going to modify their proposal they're taking in additional ideas i'm told on capitol hill here's where the phase three stands this is as the treasury proposed it, not necessarily as it's going to pass ultimately on the hill they're talking about $50 billion in aid just to the airline industry for other severely distressed sectors, $150 billion. they're looking at $300 billion in small business loans. this would permit the use of the exchange stabilization fund to guarantee money market mutual funds. that's an important piece of this the overall aid ultimately to individual taxpayers

they're envisioning that in two tranches of $250 billion one payment going out starting april 6th, the other payment going out starting may 18th. over the next couple of months, a total of $500 billion to individual taxpayers in checks and second mnuchin said they could do that in direct deposits into people's bank accounts. the irs has information for people when they do the refunds. this could be a direct stimulus of $500 billion, guys. as i say, work in progress we'll hear from the president at 11 a.m he's going to fema later today and of course the senate is going to be working and adding details as we go along throughout the day back to you. >> meanwhile, we want to get over to steve who i think is with us. steve liesman who's been looking at this situation from the fed side >> yeah, but also i want to take a look at it from the economic side

what eamon is reporting is very critical to the economic outlook and how much of a downturn it experiences and how much of a recovery it experiences. we went out and asked eigh forecasters for their best estimate, no false precision here as somebody suggested everybody says these are the best estimates that our models can put out given the information. we just want to provide you with the median estimates of the economists, and it is not a pretty picture at least for the second quarter a very slight downturn in the first quarter. we're still in it now. so some of that march is going to affect the first quarter which had been running 1 1/2 to 2% then you get a very ugly down turn 8% in the second quarter followed by the best guesses right now, 4% roughly in the third and fourth quarter not a tremendous vship but it's not an l as you were talking about. a wide range of estimates that shows the imprecision here

you have jpmorgan with an historic 14% decline in the second quarter, then you have some folks in the middle there, like deutsche bank and oxford economics, amherst in tokyo, goldman at minus 5 all the way to zandi at moody's at minus 3.2. here's a commentary from jpmorgan we expect spillover effects to last in q3 crucially we expect a vigorous cost to offset the negatives let's put this in some kind of context. here are your worst quarters ever of the post war period. 1958, i guess they called that the eisenhower recession minus 10%. there's the financial recession, minus 8.4% the 1980, '82 double dip provided a couple of bad ones. 1953 that's why we had the two backstops among other things

that's why eamon is reporting what he's talking about. a new money market mutual fund backstop from the federal reserve. secondly, the ecb coming in with 750 billion euros. i don't think we're done with the programs from the fed. >> what i'd like to do is put it in the context of what's happening. what's happening has not happened in our lifetimes

before and so i would like to give a template, try to reiterate how the machine works and then bring it to today. so i just want to take a moment and say just from the big picture, there's productivity. we invent. learn more, learn how to do things better and our living standards rise then there were two big cycles around that. and you and i have talked about this many times on the phone

and then -- which is that we have a situation in which the combination of a large wealth gap and the proximity of interest rates to zero, meaning a less effective monetary policy, and a large amount of debt outstanding, is a formula that is very similar to the 1930s because there's a lot of debt and the capacity of monetary policy is limited and now we're seeing that play out so now let's bring us right into today. and what we have is a crisis it's not caused by the usual things, but in reading history, many, many cases there have been pandemics. i won't go into all of those cases, but i want to emphasize we're in an economic crisis that is -- has a health part of it,

has an economic part of it, has a monetary part of it, and we're hitting zero interest rates. so what you're seeing right now, very classic, is the inability of central banks to stimulate monetary policy in the way that is normal. in other words, in a regular cycle they push the button and they stimulate and give people credit and people with money and credit, they go out and spend more and pick up the economy, but the capacity to do that when you hit the 0 interest rate floor and when monetary -- when monetization doesn't work anymore. and when buying bonds will not push bond yields down, and then you have the loss of interest rate declines, the loss of getting money to the people who need it through quantitative easing, when that doesn't work anymore, then you are in the position now so very classically right here

and now, what you have is the federal government, which does not have the capacity to make money and credit, you have them coming in and spending a lot more money not nearly enough money. we estimate right now that the corporate losses would be in the vicinity of -- in the u.s. about $4 trillion. globally, probably about 12 trillion. >> say that again, 4 trillion in the united states, 12 trillion globally, that's with a t? >> that's right. so the size -- there will be big losses and those are corporations there will also be individuals who have very big losses, and individuals who can't afford the shock that they're going to have so there's a need for the government to spend more money, a lot more money, and we're -- >> how much more money, ray?

>> well, we're going to have to -- it depends on whether it's provided as loan guarantees, or credit or something along those lines. i would say somewhere in the vicinity of a trillion and a half to $2 trillion is a minimum, and what that means -- where does the government get the money? okay who are the lenders now? everybody's been hit so the way this works, the way it's worked in history, is that they have to get the money from the federal reserve. so you are in a moment in time right now, you're seeing it play out, it's played out in history, it's played out in the 1930s in which you're now seeing we're going to spend a lot of money on these programs that means you're going to have to sell a lot of bonds okay who is going to buy those bonds? a lot of people are going to be broke. you look at the condition of

pension funds or other endowments where is that money going to come from? as in history, that money will have to come from the federal reserve. so you see it right now. when you see a big program being announced, like that program, you see the bond yields backed up now if the central bank does not then go in there and buy those bonds, the central bank at this point is in a dilemma. what should happen with interest rates and so on? if those rates back up because the supply/demand imbalance is not good, then you're going to have the next wave of the crisis because interest rates rising will cause asset prices to go down more again and they also will mean that debt squeezes will be a problem and credit spreads would widen. this is just mechanics. >> ray, help us with this.

i think a lot of investors are trying to think about -- and policy makers right now, trying to think about whether this is a v-type recovery or this is a u or if this is an l and when you talk about the 1930s, a v is not on the table, a u may not be on the table. an l might be what it looks like >> yes i'd like to go through it -- i'll answer your question with an explanation of essentially the mechanics. we are now at a point where there will have to be a debt -- a restructuring and the monetization of that we're living in a different world like the 1930s in which 1930s, 1932 you have a valuation of the dollar, you have the printing of money. in other words, 1932, roosevelt gets elected and then we have

the hitting of 0 interest rates and you have the analogous -- several people came in and they printed money, bought assets and that makes the rich get richer that gives you liquidity and prices go up then you become long everybody now is leveraged long in the markets in other words, most people want -- are rooting for up and the government is rooting for up the way they usually get up is by creating money. now we're dealing with a restructuring issue. i want to emphasize that there are typically two types of inve investors. the first is those who get excited about what's going on at the time and they kind of buy at the highs because they say, that's great and they extrapolate the past

that's a problem then we've learned over our years, over the cycle that has been our lifetime, we haven't learned what it was like in a prior lifetime we've learned since the post world war ii era is to buy breaks. >> buy the dips. >> buy the dips. in other words, we look at value in a normal way of saying, you know, now it's down and so you'll get value investors in a sense coming in. what -- what history has shown us, that if you go back to the bigger cycles, these things that take place, when monetary policy is not all effective, is that they -- that that is a dangerous policy too so i think we're in a situation now with this low level -- with this dynamic in which fiscal policy makers are looking at

monetary policy makers and they're trying to cut a deal, that you're seeing literally helicopter money in other words, sending $1,000 to each person is helicopter money. if you want to read about it, i wrote about it in my book which is free online, it's "debt crisis." there's monetary policy which is th that that's the part of the cycle that we're going to be in. that issue means at some point there is a risk of what is money? what is the store hold of wealth >> are we moving to gold this is very pessimistic >> again, i want to convey the mechanics of it. at such time when you have let's say bond yields or returns that are very low and you have -- but

they're high on the real basis because you have deflation, you have zero rates but you have deflation, you have a move to cash and most investors believe that cash is the safest place. and it is over the short front at that time of deflation. but when you have that move to cash, there's a necessity to make a lot of cash and a lot of debt now you will enter at a time when the bonds that you're holding, which is a promise to receive cash, is -- they're going to produce lots of cash and then we get into an environment of is that a safe place for money. so the question that all investors have to ask themselves is where are banks basically you need to know where is safe and where is opportunity? and people think now opportunity

is in being long assets and so on and so that's why the world is leveraged long. at the same time, where is safe? we live in a world where we think cash is safe and cash may not be safe as we're going forward. i'm not saying now i'm saying that as we're going through this dynamic that we're right now at this inflection point, the inflection point where we have the deficit and we get the money printing and all of that. if you take that a year or two or threeor maybe less down the line, there will be a question of all those people who were holding what they believe are safe investments, which is the promise to receive cash. they may not believe that those returns, the real returns, and that is adequate that's a longer term >> ray, let me ask you just about the immediate term right now. i'd love to get your thoughts on

something that we heard from bill ackman. he was on cnbc yesterday he had a sharp warning for investors. i want to play it and maybe get your reaction. >> hell is coming, okay? i felt -- you know, i've never had this experience before in my life the closest i had was the financial crisis where i'm saying, things are coming but this was a feeling like i've never had, like there's a tsunami coming, right? a tsunami is coming and you feel it in the air. >> what do you think of what bill just had to say, ray? >> while i think he's right, i don't -- i don't think that's of much use because it can stimulate panic rather than thoughtfulness what i'm trying to do is convey mechanics. i don't want people to panic i want people to think i want them to understand the

mechanics of how this thing works so they navigate smartly the more things go down, the more they're going to panic and they'll sell at the lows and they won't understand how to invest what i'd like to do is just convey the mechanics of this by the way, if you want to see the -- how the economic machine works on youtube is a video. >> you have a very good video on youtube. ray, how are you at bridgewater thinking about this? i know you had put out a statement earlier that you hadn't anticipated this situation over the past several weeks and like so many others it's in the performance. >> yeah. so we're down about -- depending, roughly speaking, i don't want to get into the exact, somewhere 10 to 20%ish decline and we -- and we missed

that you know, we're kicking ourselves for missing that move because, you know, you and i were talking when the downturn would come we would encounter this and so on so what happened was it didn't come from the usual places, it came from not the usual ways that yourn turn came and we got the information, we dealt with the question are we going to trade this we have a system we're not going to get into pandemic and that was what was happening. i'm not going to get into our particular situation, but i would say what i'm describing to you here and now is the thing that we're -- that we're following in terms of our strategy and i will communicate i feel a responsibility to try to not give tips in the market,

not do that but a spons sibility to thoughtfully convey how the economic machine works i do that on linked-in if people are interested but i want to explain the mechanics of that and then put where we are right now in that position because if you look at history i'm saying right now you could say, okay, the fed what are you going to do about that rising interest rate? are you going to come in with -- and not just fed, all central banks. are you going to come in with the trillions of dollars and are you going to work with the federal government to get it to those who otherwise will be -- will go broke? those are businesses but there's going to be a lot of people out there who -- you know, this can be a social issue, a social conflict issue, too, in terms of the rich and

the poor and how it's being treated. >> ray, do you support bailouts to specific industries do you have views on that? terms of -- in terms of the social issue that you've been talking about for the past several years and the political ramifications and others, social issues that may come of that if people see that certain industries are bailed out? might bail out the airline but i tonight know if anyone is going to bail out vail and the ski industry. >> i think the government is in a position -- let's say during the 2008 financial crisis they could handle it more easily and it was very difficult, but they could handle it more easily. they could go through the banks and protect the banks and protect the money market funds and it was very controversial to protect the banks and so on. now this problem is out -- is beyond the banking system. so imagine protecting a bunch of

companies of the sort that you're asking about. do i protect the airlines? do i protect the ski resorts do i protect those types of things there will be many of those that cannot be protected and it's going to be a politically challenging thing to say how do i get it to them and who is protected? talk about political controversy. this is going to be politically very, very challenging there are abilities to do this there are varying abilities to do it but the question is whether politics will deal with this and whether central banks will coordinate well with central governments in order to then think which are the entities that you would not want to lose? just like you don't want to use the desk, which are the systemically important entities? do you want to lose boeing do you not want to lose boeing

do you want to lose this one not want to lose this one? to make those choices one by one is what's going to be required the question is can our system do that? >> ray dalio, it is always a privilege to spend time with you and to help our viewers through the way you're thinking about these things and the economic machine which we've been talking about together now for almost ten years. thank you for joining us this morning and as this pandemic continues, hopefully it will abate, but as it continues, i hope we have an opportunity to talk to you soon >> all the best to everyone. >> thank you, ray. becky, over to you >> thanks, andrew. let's take a look at the futures again. if you're just waking up, it's been a pretty wild ride. the dow futures are down by 470 points this is something that's been all over the place earlier, actually overnight you saw the futures trading up pretty sharply more than 500 points up for the

dow after the ecb came in with big measures they were taking. the central bank measures, the stimulus that would be added pushed things higher we've given back all of that ground and then some nasdaq down by 110 points. s&p futures down by 6. this is a day after the dow was down by 6.3% the s&p down by 5.1% got to watch this pretty closely. we'll see if we get to limits again. near limit down yesterday the trading was halted at one point yet afternoon. we're watching oil oil was down 24% that was the third worst day ever this morning oil is trading higher but not as high as we had seen earlier in the session. it's now up by 8%. trading around $22 a barrel. there are now more than 9400 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the united states with 150 deaths, but also a positive development out of china, if we can believe the data, authorities say that the city of wuhan where the virus is

thought to have originated as well as its surrounding province had no new cases joining us now, dr. scott gottleib, form jer fda commissioner we heard from one of our guests earlier, doctor, that in italy there may be glimmers of a second derivative of i guess the acceleration may be slowing. can you add anything on the china or italy news? is it positive >> the china news is certainly positive i think it demonstrates that, you know, with containment strategies you can get through an epidemic. we've seen that in south korea and singapore, although they've had new cases and resurgence, they've largely gotten control and south korea was able to do that too italy is seeing the number of deaths rise. they may be approaching the peak in terms of new infections deaths and hospitalizations are going to rise past that peak because their time to

hospitalization is about 9 to 12 days time to death could be as long as three weeks, maybe longer so people who are getting infected now, got infected last week, they are still going to go through that process so hospitalizations and deaths are going to rise even as new infections peaked. you said we're going to find more cases now that we're testing so many people do you at the same time these numbers are going up, do you expect the anecdotal evidence from emergency rooms, hospitals, icus, do you expect that to spike sharply? >> well, it is spiking right now. it actually started spiking and if you look at the surveillance data in cities, they were showing spikes people were having influenza like illness so that was an indication probably two weeks ago that you were already seeing a signal of increased presentation some of that wasprobably peopl

who had pneumonia, they had heard about the coronavirus and were worried some of that is coronavirus now in retrospect. we'll see that build new york is in the beginning phases other american cities that are similarly seated that are going to go through epidemic spread. we're just at the beginning of the epidemic curve the steps we're taking are going to hopefully limit that spread we're at the beginning of what we saw in china, south korea, and italy. >> dr. gottleib, president trump said he would have an announcement related to the fda today. do you know what that is >> i don't know specifically i can tell you what they ought to be doing. right now, first we need a point of care diagnostic we need something that can do massive surveillance more easily at the point of care i think we need to try to move those to the market. there's also a number promising therapeutics there's no reason why we can't have a treatment for this virus. this virus is not very intricate. we've developed drugs that target the features of this

virus in other settings so we should be able to come up with a therapeutic in a reasonable period of time there are half a dozen drugs being tested in china, some of which are antiviral drugs already approved for other indications. i think what we need to do is establish a very large treatment protocol, master protocol. we've done this before where you allow a number of drugs to be tested on patients in need and you can compare the drugs and see what's working what you do is you basically randomize the drugs against each other or you randomize patients against when they started receiving the drug it's a study you can figure out what's working. it's harder to figure out what's working because of the way it's designed but you're giving everyone a treatment if you have three or four or five treatments that all look promising, you don't know which is the best, you want to figure that out but you also don't want to deny people who don't have an alternative, don't have an

option a treatment you can set up the large protocol that's something that's been talked about i think it's something the fda and administration can go forward with the other thing, third pieces, two other pieces quickly, becky, we need a massive surveillance system we need to be -- when people present with influenza like i will illness in the fall, we need to be testing tens of thousands of those samples for coronavirus so we can detect this early so we don't get another outbreak or epidemic the final thing we need and we can have it is the antibody p prophylax prophylaxis. what you can give people who are at high risk elderly people, people immunocompromised. you can give it to them on a monthly basis and protect them from getting coronavirus if we have those tools, this is something we can live with i think that technology is sufficient that we can get those tools. >> doctor, we at this point are in the middle of trying to deal with this and no one knows whether we're going to be

successful we hear not everyone is taking it seriously, but then again we have done a lot in the last week that maybe we thought was going to be impossible there are 9,000 or so, probably more, deaths globally. do you think that we could manage to mess this up so badly in the united states that we could eventually -- and i'm not talking about in ten years of this coronavirus but near term, could we have a million deaths is that a reasonable prediction to make, that that could happen in this country right now? would you make that prediction, that it's possible if we don't handle it right? >> no, i wouldn't make that prediction. >> is it irresponsible to make that >> there's an announcement out of imperial college that looked at scenarios we've shown we have the political will to quell this epidemic we're going to do what it takes to make sure the out of bound scenarios don't come to pass

i think we could get into the hundreds of thousands of infections >> infection >> not millions. >> no, i'm talking deaths. deaths in the united states. a million deaths in the united states for this. >> right you'd need tens of millions of infections. >> which is possible to happen but you don't think -- you don't think it's likely if we do the mitigation >> if we let it burn through our population completely unchecked, it would be possible we're clearly not going to do that so we're going to certainly have tens of thousands of cases. we might get into low hundreds of thousands of cases but i think we'll have the political will to do what's necessary to keep this epidemic from becoming larger than that. >> thank you, doctor we appreciate it we'll speak with you as we like to hopefully every day. meantime, breaking news. weekly jobless claims. these are the numbers everybody cares about. rick santelli an steve liesman joins us rick, we'll go to you first. rick >> reporter: 281,000 now that might not sound like a huge jump from 211, but let's

put it in time perspective terms. this comes to the highest level since september 2017 when it was 300,000 so it is a big jump. continuing claims are a week in arrears. it's not showing up there yet. they're still showing 1.701 million. that follows a whis kerr under 1.700 in revision. we'll see those continuing claims numbers move up on philly fed, minus 12.7. this is a march number it is a record drop because it was at 36.7, which means basically down to minus 12.7 that's just shy of a 55.0 point drop never done that before the long end is definitely much more vibrant than the short end right now so you want to pay particularly close attention to the yield curve and we see rates overseas you guys have been discussing it the ecb pulling out a bazooka.

christine lagarde reversing what she said earlier with regards to credit spreads and southern economies. trying to get the spanish yields down the test tubes take you so far this is going to be a grand experiment and part two of what really started in the credit crisis we'll continue to monitor. joe and the gang, back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli. we're going to pop over to steve liesman for just a second. as we're going from house to house and studio to studio steve, are you there >> reporter: i am here, andrew i'll just characterize this very quickly as those, you know, first dark clouds that come before the arrival of the full storm. this pop-up to 281,000 in jobless claims show a one much of people when this hit were laid off and able to get unemployment insurance claims. we have been doing stories with

the difficulty of getting it backups there. these were numbers you had ian shepard son on a couple of hours ago saying they could get up to 2 million and these could be very, very stark for at least several months or several weeks. this will be a week that it will be -- these are from the prior week this will be a week that we'll get a lot of these numbers go on up some of the vulnerable sectors, 15 million employees in retail 12 million in restaurants and bars so you'll be looking to those sectors as the ones that will be the most vulnerable and we'll see if the combination of the social safety net as it exists, unemployment insurance and the one coming from the federal government is enough to tide people over to get back to work hopefully 234 a couple of months, andrew. >> thanks, steve. boeing's stock losses have been stunning. shares are down more than 60% since the start of march i just looked at the market cap

of boeing. obviously when the d word gets thrown around you wouldn't think the market cap gets maintained to see boeing with a market cap of $57 million, netflix two or three times that, unbelievable they were down 18% just yesterday and now the company says it needs big-time government support to maintain liquidity. phil lebeau has more on top of the bailout. good morning again, phil. >> reporter: joe, we're talking with boeing executives as well as people in washington, d.c i know eamon and kayla had been all over that. this is part of the phase three package. there's $150 billion that is going to be set aside for critical industries, companies in critical industries we believe the boeing $60 billion request is part of the $150 billion until that finally is going through the process and we get more definitive answers, we won't know for sure. that's the assumption at this point. let's take a look at shares of

boeing a couple of things to keep in mind the primary focus is getting that government aid secured. remember, it's not just for boeing it would be for the entire aviation sector. most of the money that would go to boeing would then be passed on to suppliers to keep the supply chain intact so it doesn't collapse in some fashion. the ask at this point, $60 billion. meanwhile, production continues at the boeing plant in everett, washington, just outside of seattle. this is where they make the 777 as well as the 787 dreamliner. a number of people have said, they've had some cases out there. as far as we know, at least six. why haven't they shut down production that is a call that's going to be reached in part by the local health officials along with boeing along with the union. the union plays a role in this in terms of whether or not people say they want to work or not. a couple of quick notes. hawaiian saying they're going to be cutting their capacity by 40%. this morning american taking out a fresh $1 billion line of

credit accessing liquidity up to 8.4 billion in totally quit tia available right now. back to you. >> phil, just a quick question for you. what we've heard from the automakers, big three automakers saying they're going to be shutting down their plants for now, does that mean they'll be coming up with a bailout package of what they need? >> i think their liquidity, how long these plants are shut down. that's not what impacts the automakers what impacts the automakers is when the dealers buy vehicles from the automakers. they're doing that as soon as they come off the line if they shut down for a week or two, can they withstand that yes. are they going to be shutting down production for six weeks, seven weeks, now you have a completely different story

>> if people aren't coming in to buy cars for six, seven, eight weeks, are they going to be buying from the manufacturers too? >> correct there is a little bit of good news here. it doesn't back up the inventory anymore in terms of cranking out the vehicles and dealers just for a quick point of reference, guys, in terms of demand on the retail side, people going out to dealerships, between friday and sunday, the amount of retail sales went from negative 30% down to negative 36% on sunday. so clearly people are pulling back and not buying new vehicles >> phil, thank you very much our next guest is a former top economic advisor to president trump. gary cohn is joining us right now. he had been talking about just a week ago that he thought the u.s. would be in a recession and that was before we even saw the

crazy market moves that we've seen since then. gary is the former direct or -- director director -- >> i think we've lost becky. gary is still on the line. >> sorry about losing becky. >> we'll get becky back in just a second i will try to ask the question that i imagine she may have. you lived through the financial crisis you've lived inside of this administration there are now so many different bailout packages on the table. how do you see these things playing out right now? >> so, andrew, look, i think it's important that we put this in perspective we've got a public health crisis, and the policy of washington at this point is to focus on the economy and the economic recovery. so when i think washington is talking about throwing money at the situation, which is the complete right answer and probably the only answer, i

think they're looking at -- and this is what they're trying to get right, is they're looking at trying to keep people employed how do we get people employed once this crisis is over how do we keep businesses intact so when the crisis is over, workers will have a job to go back to? if people are talking about different forms of recovery, which brings back some haunting memories to me whether it's y'so v or l, the question is do people have jobs to go back to do the industries or businesses that they were working in, do they still exist i think washington is very, very cognitive of that and trying to make sure those industries, those jobs exist what i'm mostly talking about is half of the americans that work in small businesses, whether they work in restaurants, bars, movie theaters, drive an uber,

they drive a lyft, we have to make sure that once we're clear to go back to work, that they have businesses to go back to. >> gary, i think one of the things people are looking at is on one side it appears that we're going to ultimately bail out maybe in an idiosyncratic, there will be winners and losers chosen, i'm talking about the airlines and so many other companies going to washington asking for money and then we're literally talking about others, i was on the phone with so many ceos yesterday, talking about laying off employees in the moment. >> yes. >> the question is how are we going to get those employees back to work are they going to be employed retroactively? how does that even happen? will there be enough demand on the other side if and when, of course we will get there, the question is when. how do you make that all work and how do you get the economy back up and running?

>> andrew, i agree we're going to get there, it's just a matter of when. what i hope washington is avoiding, and i think they are, i think that's why they've spent so much time on the phase 3 and broken into buckets, is they have to avoid the squeaky wheel syndrome they have to avoid the companies that are big enough and strong enough to go lobby the white house and congress to get their bailout package because those companies may be only employ 10, 20, 30, 40,000 people where you look at half the economy being employed by very small businesses, a guy that owns a pizza shop or two, or a coffee shop or two or an uber driver, they are the ones that are really the backbone of the economy. the big businesses, you know, in many respects they're in bitter position to keep their employees on, keep them intact and make sure there's a job to come back to. >> there's a political component. you lived it and you know it and

what happens to the sort of perception of the banking industry as a result of that, which is to say people are going to say if we're going to bail these guys out, we want something for it they have either been irresponsible, did buy backs, did this or that and didn't have an insurance fund for this time. then we're going to get into a question of nationalizing these things how do you think this should go? >> i think we've got to talk about the workers first. you know, there will be plenty of time to discuss those political issues, but right now we're talking about an environment where we saw, you know, initial job claims go up by 70,000 last week. we're talking about an environment where -- >> 20% unemployment. >> 20% unemployment. >> do you believe that that's part of the bill ackman, hell is coming kind of thought process. >> look, i believe that we are going to have massive unemployment very, very quickly. and i hope that all of our

predictions are wrong, but you cannot work today. even if you want to go out and work, you are not allowed to work if you're -- if you're an uber driver and you're out there trying to pick up fares, there's no fare to pick up so you're literally trying to work so, in essence, you're de facto unemployed, not because you want to be unemployed, you're unemployed because there's no revenue opportunity for you. if you have a restaurant that can't really operate in the delivery or pickup service, you're de facto being forced into unemployment. you're in the movie theater business that we think are part of our normal, everyday life i always remind people, we're an 80% service economy. think about what your favorite city looked like 30 years ago and think about the retail stores that occupy it today. they're service stores, they're not goods stores our economy is based on buying

services >> gary, let me ask you just in terms of how this is going out, the idea of a check to every american i realize that this is happening very quickly we need to get out there very quickly. do you want to see something like that or do you want something much more targeted to help the people who are most impacted >> look, becky, we'd love to be more targeted. i would love to see more targeted to people that are unable to work and don't have the financial means. that would be the right answer i just don't know if we have enough time to go through with the proper detail and get it to the right people so if we're going to err on giving it to too many people or too few people, i'd rather give money to too many people and make sure that we at least keep people in a position where they can feed their families and they can be in a position to help us recover the economy. >> some of your very specific ideas are making sure that landlords give, you know, rent

relief to the small businesses that are in them, that they get three months back. some of the other people make sure that happens for mortgage payments for people and rent payments for individuals as well. >> yes. >> do you think that's likely to get done >> well, it's going to get done. so landlords are going to be in no position -- with courts closed, it's going to be impossible to evict or foreclose upon people so tenants are basically going to be able to stay in their premise. what i was trying to do is give people the ability to take that loss on their 2019 taxes, which have yet to be filed, which is a stimulant to the economy instead of waiting a year from now until you file the tax returns, take the loss in 2019 and when you file your return you would get a bigger refund. again, it's going to cost money, but it puts money back in the pockets of smaller landlords we all think about the big landlords. think about the small landlords.

think about the person that owns a retail shop on the first floor, lives on the second floor and they really use the income to live off of you know, that person is losing their income so give them the ability to file that on their 2019 can support themselves >> gary, very quickly, these are a lot of great ideas i wish you were still in the administration doing some things have you talked to anybody there? >> so look, i want to be as helpful as i can i'm in touch with some of my former colleagues in the white house and i continue to be helpful and i continue to reach out. >> okay. gary, want to thank you for your time today, and we'll have you back soon to talk more about this because obviously, this is an evolving situation. gary cohn. >> thanks. >> let's get to cnbc headquarters jim cramer joins us now. jim, with some of the best levels of the day on the dow, just down 400 a half hour ago, down about 150 this morning right now.

what do you think? >> first, i love dr. gottlieb and i think what dr. gottlieb was saying, i know it's widely quoted already, is the million deaths -- i understand where your question is coming from it's not going to be that. should we be a little more not sanguine but realist i think that was the point of your skwegz. tell me otherwise. i know you talk with me every day. what you were trying to say is this wasn't going to happen, correct, am i right? >> i hope that we do the things that are necessary to prevent it from happening i can certainly see how it would happen when you do it with simple math, jim, but i'm hoping that -- so many things are swirling around. i'm thinking maybe there's a lot more infections that we don't even know about because it's minor. i'm hoping the death rate isn't 1% i'm hoping -- i wish it was .3% or .4%, jim, but if it takes an entire year to work through and

100 million people get infected, then i mean the number is there. i'm just trying -- i don't want a million people to die, jim >> i think you're saying the denominator is going to be maybe 10, 100 times what we are now, but the numerator may not be as dangerous. that's not false hope. i think that's factual facts defeat fear. yes, we're going to see the denominator, the people who are infected, there's a big backlog. when we come in, if it's 200,000, we have to be here and say we're going to win if it's 2 million, we have to say it's going to win. not because it's fanctleand to optimistic it is what happens very little faith in science this morning i don't blame it the scientists yesterday, the drug didn't make it. but there's a lot -- i think there should be more faith in science and less worry the workers will be tied over, i'm convinced of that.

but the idea that science is blind is not the way it has been in history i'm sure most of us thought we had a shot of getting polio who were born in my year when we had to stay inside there were people who were born -- i had measles, mumps, chickenpox all within about seven months i'm just saying don't be stationary and static when you look at the situation and don't think you have four weeks. maybe you think you have four months, four years but if you look at the picture, it's very much like when the soviets and nazis signed the nonaggression pact and we haven't gotten to december 7th of '41 i urge people to be more historical and less frightened >> if it's 9,000 total deaths and, you know, it started in china, we have to be really pessimistic about our ability to -- if we can believe china, but to replicate -- i have even been told china might not be

completely honest, but if you look at the south korean model, they have bent the curve to an extent 100 deaths or whatever it is >> why did starbucks reopen a store in wuhan in wuhan, in ground zero why did that do that yesterday kevin johnson spoke with them. he's the ceo he broke the news on "mad money" last night there's a company that's committed to its workers why would they do that if the chinese were lying, kevin would not open that store. he's already opened stores through 90% of the rest of the stores are open. hormelsaid business as usual you said spam, business was usual in the thermonuclear war for those guys i think it's worth noting starbucks is not the prc and is truthful, not propaganda not false optimism just the idea, let's think a little further out what happens if we say we have picked all these winners or the

workers got fortunes and then the fda later today said i really like the way the malaria trial is working then what do we do we spend a couple weeks. it could be years, months. i'm just saying to look at it statically is to believe revelations. i'm not going with the pale rider and the pale horse >> and you know, we're so -- we're so healthy here, and we're so -- people are partying and not paying attention that somehow 9,000 global deaths, we're so, i don't know, not serious about this that we have a million here i just hope it doesn't happen, jim. >> remember, there have been no people who died under 30 in italy. i think that does matter look, we're not trying to triage older people dr. fauci, i understand he's going on bar stool today why is he doing that because the silent killers in the stadium are the millennials who think they live forever. i think there's a great short story by john o'hara, and all the pessimists and hedge funds should go read it because it's

about you can't avoid the grim reaper i think the grim reaper can be avoided. >> i hope so hope springs eternal thanks we'll check back with you. joining us for more on the markets, jim grant, founder of grants interest rate you sure know a lot about monetary policy. where are we now in terms of central banks around the world and the ability to do more >> well, we are at kitchen sink level, which reminds me, joe, of something that happened 200 years ago, which is a famous raging panic in england in 1825 and subsequent testimony direct to the bank of england said that seeing the dreadful condition of the public, we did all we could, and quote, upon some occasions we were not overnice meaning that they broke all the rules in place they lent against merchandise for pete's sake, not nearly

against commercial bills or exchequer bills. the impulse to meet a crisis like a lion, that is an age-old impulse of the central bankers and that's what they're doing. what is different these days is that we have been meeting noncrises like lions we have been upon many occasions not overnice in the preceding ten years to this. so if we go into the crisis as it were with a compromised corporate financial immune system, huge leverage, very low-quality debt, and very high equity valuations with the result that the financial part of this panic, we have two panics, it seems to me, we have a hypochondriacal panic and a fascial panic. the financial panic is aggrav e aggravated by the evenltts of

2009 >> hypochondriacal panic >> people are taking their temperature more frequently than they're washing their hands. imagine if cnbc and cnn reported every ordinary case of influenza. a friend of mine from years ago, preston carter, texas real estate operator, said that you look at cows in a pasture, and a candy wrapper blows in, and one starts running and everybody starts running that, to a degree, describes the nature of panic in all creatures. and it seems to me the part of what we're dealing with is simple panic abstracting entirely from proximate causes, from science, from finance oh, my goodness. okay, we have had hedge fund titans talk about the end of times, but it seems to me what

we are about to a degree is simple panic what happens if there was an announcement with every single auto fatality. we americans endure 40,000 auto fatalities a year in the service of a functional economy. >> but what are you recommending because look, there's a very uncomfortable conversation which i think is happening privately, but nobody would happen in public really, people are talking about tradeoffs and i don't necessarily want to have that conversation right now, but what are you suggesting behind what you're saying >> i'm not quite sure i get the question i'll take it down to the microscopic level of a financial periodical called grants what we're trying to do is look for opportunities in chaos mispricings. we looked at a series f-preferred -- >> 30 seconds, jim 30 seconds, sorry. >> there are things for sale you want to own.

period >> okay. excellent. i'm sorry. we try to hit the next show straight up at 9:00, and you know, the world can be going insane, but that's something we need to do, believe it or not. we'll have you back. andrew, i don't know where you're going to be here tomorrow, but we'll see you somewhere. becky, we'll see you there cnbc special coverage continues now. >> good thursday morning i'm carl quintanilla with jim and david. all coming to you live from separate locations, starting a little early as the nyc is set to switch to all electronic trading on monday. futures down, albeit in a limited fashion as economists try to quantify the impact we'll see. jobless spikes we'll get an 11:00 a.m. briefing at the white house, guys, and spring begins tonight at 11:49 p.m. jim,