tv The Exchange CNBC March 19, 2020 1:00pm-2:01pm EDT
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>> let me ask you this and then i've got to go try not to make it long. if you have a deal between saudis and the russians, but yet you still have an economic, massive problem like we do, how does that balance -- does that balance each other out with the price of crude >> think about it this way when they made that decision a week ago, it's been almost ten days ago, the demand losses were around 5 million barrels a day if you want to undercut all of that shale production, you need to add about 2.7 million a day of extra supply on the market. now those are nine plus million barrels a day. which is why you've seen this morning, you know, they're canceleding freight rebates. there's a lot of concern about, there may be just too much oil on the market relative to the demand levels, which is why you're going to hit these fiscal constraints in the system.
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you're not going to be able to deliver another barrel of oil in the system that's when you start to see the real downside. >> jeff, i appreciate you bearing with us today, being patient, we'll talk to you again soon jeff currie of goldman sachs our breaking news conch will continue tonight i'll see you on our special report tonight at 7:00 p.m that does it for us. kelly, i've done it again, but i so much appreciate you bearing with us there as we got through these interviews >> it's great stuff, all week, as always, scott wapner. appreciate it. i'm kelly evans. we do have a rare up session on wall street today, but not without plenty of drama. the dow fell more than 700 points at the lows we've rallied more than 500 at the highs and up 219 right now tech, interestingly enough is the big driver of today's move higher take a look right now. the s&p -- for the dow, that's 1% gain, s&p, a little less than that and also rebounding strongly today. we just heard jeff currie of goldman's thoughts on this
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oil is up after hitting the lowest level in almost two decades yesterday. that said, wall street now not so bullish, i should say, on earnings estimates as you can see, now bracing for an earnings recession with predictions today we'll see negative earnings growth for the entire first half of the year. some call that an earnings recession. let's get more on that, on these markets, and so much more with bob pisani who's been kicked out of the new york stock exchange, bob, but it's good to see you. >> and sitting at home, missing the new york stock exchange. hopefully we can get that back there as soon as possible. what's interesting about today is it looked like it was going to start out with a lot of heavy volatility, like we saw in the last few weeks in the first 40 minutes, that's exactly what happened. but since just after 10:00 eastern time, markets have largely flattened out. and that's good, because what everybody wants is boredom we want a little quiet sideways action there's still a lot of volatility in some sectors and some big volume. let me just show you the s&p 500. 2351, of course, that was the
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only -- 3251 -- sorry, 2351, that was the old december 24th, 2018, low. that has not been breached on a closing basis, and that was the close there. that's still holding up here in terms of sectors, again, a little familiarity remember, we've seen days where we're seeing 7, 8, 9% moves on some sectors but the s&p 500, you see up there, corporate bonds, which has been down recently, that's a nine-year low. that's the lqd, that second line there, still down. but not as much. crude is up, gold is up, even the vix is a little flatter. the vix has flattened out in the last few days in the high 70s. it's not been as volatile moving around as much a little bit quieter on that front. if you look at some of the dow movers, even boeing, which is down, what, 60% so far, that's even a little flatter. chevron is up. american express is doing nicely united technology is on the upside here.
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the volatility, the intra-day moves really quieted down a little bit, and i think all of us can use a few moments where we catch our breath and figure out where things are going i would note, kelly, financials, materials, and energy are the movers there there's your cyclical sectors. and interestingly, the weaker groups have sort of reversed today, consumer staples and health care are lagging the overall markets. kelly? >> all right, bob, thanks so much bob pisani some breaking news from the federal reserve now. boston fed president eric rosengren speaking steve liesman has those for us he's been a key person to listen to over the last several weeks >> exactly and more key today, kelly, as you know i just got off the phone with eric rosengren, the boston fed president. it's his bank that's in charge of this new money market liquidity fund that the fed launched last night. and he'll be running it when it opens up on monday he said his hope is that this fund will store confidence in the ability of money market funds to provide liquidity that really he wants the economy
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move the money goes into the money markets and they buy corporate paper and all kinds of stuff that businesses need to keep running as well as securing the investment of individual investors in those money markets. let me give you some bullet points of what he told me. he expects markets to stabilize result of all of these things that the fed has done in the next week or two the money market will backstop the fed and should address what he calls dysfunction in the markets. and i asked him what else the fed could do he said, everything should be on the table. and i asked him about corporate buying and all kinds of things and he said, everything should be on the table. i asked him about his forecast for the economy. he said, forecasting at this point, not really a great exercise, but here's some of the things he said over the phone about the outlook for the economy and unemployment >> my expectation is that we will see the unemployment rate go up fairly substantially, so i think we're going to see significantly more layoffs over the next week or two >> with substantial problems in
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different markets, all kinds of markets, a very busy day for the fed. let me go through some of the things that they did today they increased securities purchases, outright purchases of mortgage-backed and treasuries by up to $75 billion today from 40 and they opened swap lines with nine central foreign banks kelly, there's a whole bunch of stuff that's not functioning right now and the fed is trying, i think, moving at record speed here, to try to address those issues and it's just going to take some time for them to unclog and unstrain these markets at this point. >> and steve, there's been so much creativity, lately, not just about the different lending facilities at the fed, but about the kind of assets they could buy. yesterday, we heard julia coronado suggest maybe they could buy municipal bonds, which are really trading poorly lately, because state and local bettings a budgets are going to get stressed is there anything off the table at this point? >> good question kelly, it's good to take a step back real quick and talk about the difference between this crisis and the last one. in the last one, the federal
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reserve lent to people who were essentially at fault for the problems they were having. the people coming to the fed now, they're there through no fault of their own and in this particular instance, the treasury is providing $10 billion backstops to three different funds. what does that mean? it means the fed is probably -- it may already be or may eventually be taking way more risk in the economy. maybe not way more, but more risk in the economy through its lending than it did before last time, the fed was like, i'll take the risk, but i am not going to lose money here you're going to pay me this time, because they have that treasury backstop, you could see the fed be involved in a series of programs here, where they take more of the risk to the economy from the virus this is not yet, but it may well end up being a very different game for the federal reserve than it was last time. >> and i have follow-on questions, which i'll direct to our next guest, steve. thank you for now. steve liesman having spoken with boston fed president, eric rosengren.
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jpmorgan making some big headlines in the past 24 hours the firm forecasting a pretty deep recession economists there see gdp down 4 in the french quarter, follirst% in the second quarter. joining me now is mike feroli. the tweet i put out with your forecast yesterday i think has been retweeted thousands and thousands of times i think you want to clarify about this forecast for starters >> so yng we made very extreme assumptions to get to the numbers we got to. basically, the part of the economy that is exposed here, which is airlines, movie theaters, things of that nature is around 7% of the economy. and we assume activity in that part of the economy is depressed in march, april, and starts to recover in may and that may prove optimistic or p pessimistic, but that's what we're predicating our forecast on and with that, we get that big
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decline in second quarter growth >> how much in terms of government stimulus is priced into these forecast, which both see the big decline in the first half, and also a decent size in 8% rebound in q3 >> yeah, so, look, if these activities come back online, then we should see -- that alone should give us a lot of strength in the third quarter again, that may prove optimistic or pessimistic we are assuming around 1 trillion of fiscal stimulus, hopefully most of it coming in the third quarter to really ensure that the economy does pull out of this in good fashion. and that seems to be at least what we're going to get. >> third quarter, though are you saying that -- july? >> well, so, we're expecting $1 trillion of [ inaudible ]. >> got it. >> hopefully most of it will be concentrated in the third quarter, because that's when we think it will be most helpful. getting a lot of stimulus in place in march and april probably won't matter if you can't leave your house but we want to make sure that
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when the worst is past, that the economy really comes back with some vigor and it does seem like that a lot of the proposals have these rebate checks, which at least, by historical experience, usually gets paid within two or three months that could help, you know, cement in place expectations of a summertime return to better growth numbers >> two questions, mike, that came up a lot yesterday. the first one is, why bother making the forecast? and i think i know the answer, it's your job. but again, is there an endless -- you had a ton of caveats in this note about uncertainty and this being a tough time is there something to be said for chucking guidance altogether, or do you feel like you can get a pretty good handle on what this hit is going to look like? >> i don't think we can get a good handle, but i think we can, at least, see under different assumptions for the course of the virus, what that could mean for the economy. so we need to make assumptions about the course of the virus,
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about how this spills over into default and things of that nature but at least we can start to war game when we think through these things so we're not totally in the dark, as long as we understand that there are different pockets of uncertainty, a lot of them, epidemiological in nature. >> exactly and look, i think from the fed's perspective, they had shut their forecast, i think they may be in a little bit of a different boat, because i think powell kind of alluded to when he said it would be counterproductive. he put out some numbers that are realistic, but quite down bate and that may reinforce some of the more cautionary behavior >> you know, you guys -- i obviously, would have to adjust the numbers or we all would have to kind of take into account if coronavirus comes back in the fall or next year, that kind of thing, like you said this all relies on what happens with the virus but in that context, one more question, is this kind of
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private figure that steve mnuchin had mentioned about unemployment in a worst-case scenario reaching 20 to 25%, is something like that feasible and your current unemployment forecast only has us going a little over 6% in the middle of the year and falling back to the 5s by year end >> yes, so we have -- that's right. and given some of the anecdotes we've heard from some estate labor offices, just this week, maybe that's optimistic, but that's based on a simple relation, which ties unemployment, changes in unemployment to gdp growth so we're not trying to make too radical a statement in that regard in terms of mnuchin's comments, i think in this environment, nothing's off the table, but that seems pretty extreme. and if i recall correctly, it was in the context of no policy response and if the fed didn't respond earlier this week or throughout the week, if we didn't get any stimulus or weren't expecting any stimulus, you know, you can't take that off the table. but that is a pretty extreme
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>> how big would the gdp hit have to be to hit 20% unemployment 50, 60%? >> yeah, it would -- yes it would be -- and it would need to be sustained, i think, over probably a couple of quarters. >> wow >> mike, thanks for phoning in and appreciate your -- like you said, adding a little bit of context around what we do know at this point. >> sure thing. good talking to you. >> mikeferoli is the chief economist at jpmorgan. banks have been announcing a raft of new measures to support these economies. but is it enough ray dalio expressed his doubts about that on "squawk box" >> we estimate right now that corporate losses would be in the vicinity of, in the u.s., around $4 trillion. globally, probably about 12 trillion >> $4 billion here, 12 trillion there. what more does need to be done i'm joined now by kim forest, chief investment officer at boca capital partners, nisha patel, and subadra rajappa, great to
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have you here with so many different pieces we've got equities, rates, munis. kim, let me just start with you on equities. we are in a little bit better footing today. what do you think is priced in terms of expectation about how many trillions of support is on the way? >> i think that the government, the u.s. government, and actually the governments around the world have said, look, we are going to throw the kitchen sink at this and they are it is very, very clear this isn't like 2008 where there was a real tussle to get $850 million in an aid package passed we're all hearing, the first 800, that's quickly gone and we have to do more. the fed, i mean, the piece at the top of the hour with the boston fed saying they're going to do whatever it takes, i think that is true the thing is how long is this
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going to last? and none of us know, none of us. but i think it's pretty clear that support is going to be there. they don't want to have people wandering around with nothing to eat and getting kicked out of their houses and that's, i think, what everybody's kind of -- they don't want to have that happen election year or not it's just not what the government is supposed to do >> kim, are you changing your investments, are you doing different things here based on some of these dislocations or not? >> a little bit. so i'm always trying to go to where the growth is going to be. and i think that seems like cloud commuting. i think everybody probably is hooked up to the cloud, if they're working from home. 5g is still big. and consumer behavior really doesn't change all that much once you get pay in your pocketbook so those are kind of things that i do, that i'm not changing. but what i am changing is looking at the balance sheet first.
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who has money and who can sustain themselves through this bad time that's what i'm asking >> and i'm sure many companies thought they were in decent shape until being hit with a real sudden stop like this there's a ton of concern about state and local budget budgets. everything from stadium financing, because you've hat sports events canceled to quite simply how people are going to compensate for all the different parts of the economy that are shut down. muni bonds are trading terribly, relatively speaking, the yields are still pretty low on an absolute basis we've had people speculating about whether the federal reserve is going to buy munis as part of its asset-buying program. what would you say to investors in that asset class right now? >> so, i mean, even a relatively higher grade asset class, you still have a lot of cities and towns that are highly rated and haven't been immune from it really is a liquidity crisis. there's a lot of investors what we are seeing is if you take a step back, is you're seeing muni yields north of 100
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basis points higher in a matter of two weeks i think if you have an active manager that is doing the appropriate due diligence. >> nisha, do you think that you will basically with able to get exposure to any part of the muni universe and benefit from a government, from a federal government backstop, or are there going to be winners and losers where they say, we're not going to support the stadium financing project, but we are going to support the general bond or something? >> so i actually kind of think of, and these projects and for airports bonds these are higher yielding carrier bonds and i think the government should provide some sort of a liquidity line,
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individually to all of these states most of these major states and towns are coming into this crisis at much healthier balance sheets, much already liquidity and these states came into the 2008 era that's good news in the event that states need to back up through an in-state issuer for towns, they should have the ability to use the government and that liquidity line if they need to do so >> making a lot of great points there. so on the rates piece of this, where i've heard people saying to me, can you explain what's going on with bond yields? they plunged, then they went higher the 30-year has been all over the place. how would you characterize liquidity and fundamentals right now? >> i never thought i would say this, but it's the lack of liquidity in the treasury market, the largest, the most liquid bond market is experiencing a dearth of
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liquidity. who would have thought there are also a lot of other dynamics going on. people are liquidties treasuries and bonds to hold cash and there's also the prospect of tangibly higher deficits over the coming years >> absolutely. >> so that's again, another piece of information that the market is trying to digest i'm not -- i would like to emphasize the fact i'm not a bond vigilante with the fed purchasing $700 billion in treasuries and mortgages, that should keep interest rates low but, you know, that's definitely a consideration, as well, in the markets. and lastly, it's also people working from home. there's just information asymmetrics, and there's just not the same level of involvement due to balance sheets that are extraordinarily constrained and people are trying to work around these issues >> so just to put a point on it. when people think about deficits, they think a lot more treasury supply is coming. we've had rumors about 20 and 50-year debt again being issued.
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so you have people thinking a lot more supply is coming. are they worried about inflation? are we seeing that as a concern, too, or is it more just the general liquidity and supply problems >> no, there's actually no concern with inflation, because of the sharp drop in oil prices, what we've seen is, values have risen very sharply and inflation levels have declined almost to the same levels or close to the levels we saw during the crisis. so we're looking at inflation expectations cratering and the bond market, you know, starting to price in the potential for more supply. and that's one of the reasons that you hit the nail on the head is the reason why i don't think that yields will continue to rise, because of the additional supply. because it's not an inflation story. this is more of a near-term additi dislocation in the markets >> thank you all for joining me toda
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today. >> let's get more detail now with kayla tauschy >> the briefing today from the white house concerned mainly the public health aspect of this dynamic, saying they were fast tracking some drugs that treat malaria and ebola for sommet experimental use they did not speculate when they would be available for commercial use, and administration also said that several vaccines have entered clinical trials this week, earlier than expected. and then there is the economic part of this crisis, kelly of course, as there is some stability in the markets today, the politics of bailouts are pursuing toxic yet again the discussion on capitol hill continues as the house and the senate and the treasury department try to craft a
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package that will make everyone happy and pass easily. and president trump was asked about putting conditions in any stimulus package that would keep any government who receives government money from paying bonuses to executives and from buying back stock. here's how president trump responded. >> we don't want that. in fact, some companies, as you know, did stock buybacks and i was never happy with that. it's very hard to tell them not to, but i would tell them not to i would say i don't like it for that reason. some did and it turned out they could have waited a long time, and it would have been much better off if they did >> president trump also said he supported one possible on the table for the government to take out equity stakes in some of these troubled companies, but that's going to prove politically difficult as well, kelly. you'll remember back in 2009, the poster child of that was gm. the government took a 61% stake, but in a crisis like this, where the fallout is so widespread,
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where do you draw the line on who gets that injection and who doesn't? that's the difficult question facing the administration right now. >> yeah, they should just buy the s&p 500. just the whole index, 10% of it. kayla, thank you we appreciate it kayla tausche is in washington let's turn to oil, which is looking to rebound after plunging to its lowest level yesterday since 2002 in fact, yesterday's 24% plunge was the third worst day on record today, a rebound with oil spiking more than 20% in the session, now, which would be its best day ever. but still, it's down 44% in march. you guessed it that's its worst month for more on where the price of oil could go next, i'm joined by paul sanke, and our own brian sullivan is here with us as well brian, was it you or did someone else out there say that oil could go negative? i was focused on negative bond yields, now negative oil prices, too. >> it's possible, yeah listen, it's the high risk, you know, for a low probability
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outcome, kelly, but it's not out of the question. here's why you've got a store at summer we talked about this yesterday on your show and again, if all the storage tanks get full, it's possible, it's not probable, nobody is saying this is the outcome, but if you've got oil and there's nowhere to put it, it's conceivable you might have to pay somebody to take it. by the way, pretty amazing, we're talking about a 22% jump in the price ofoil to $24. >> right, exactly. paul, any thoughts on the prospect of again, i only mention it if people in the market are speculating that this could happen, prices going negative it just tells us there's a huge supply/demand imbalance out there, right >> that's correct. in fact, it was me that started it and it's really something we've seen with natural gas actually this year at times in the permian. and as brian correctly says, it's simply a question of when you don't have enough available inventory, capacity to offtake then the physical reality of oil
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and having to deal with the sort of black viscous liquid that you need to put somewhere could conceivably take prices negative, particularly at the extremes of the chain. so, for example, in canada, or maybe in north dakota, where you're further away from markets. >> so what do you do, paul, with all of these stocks? we've seen economies respond with a raft of different measures already what more should we be bracing for, and does it all depend on how long this lasts? >> i think, in my role as an analyst, we've been trying to put pressure on saudi, to be honest because i think that adding oil into this market isn't really what's needed, to say the least. and that may recover things. so we've been doing some fairly doomsday-type scenarios of what q2 looks like, if saudi keeps pumping. and if we continue to have a rolling shutdown of the united states of america, which is the biggest oil market in the world, at that point, you get to very low prices so we've been looking at cash costs of production in theu.s.
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which are about $20 a barrel below that, you'll start shutting production. in all of those scenarios, the best we've got is the future strip, and that, as you know, is much higher in the future than it is currently. but it still looks very, very severe for the oil companies, to say the least. they really will be lost making in all scenarios, as the price is now >> well, brian, people have, as the concept of potentially having some kind of government backstop or bailout for oil and gas companies -- before it can even get raised, the outrage flies. should there be shing, maybe not necessarily direct financial support, but should the u.s. government do something geopolitically to pressure those other producers to keep that other scenario paul is describing from happening? >> i don't know. not for me to say, but there is a growing cry out there for a tariff on imported oil i don't know if it's a good idea or not
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we're still importing a lot of oil from around the world and there's a growing chorus saying, listen, the u.s. oil and gas industry should not get a bailout, per se, but we're talking about backstopping people's jobs, making sure they have an income, because they are going to get laid off. there's going to be a lot of layoffs. so there is a growing chorus of, let's tariff this imported oil, use that fund to directly help families again, no judgment, i'm just saying the talk is out there also, don't forget, talk about jobs in the economy. we were talking about all of these liquefied natural gas projects there's 20-some that are in some form of development, either being built now, being projected to be built or being thought about or have been approved. where are they going to go natural gas is at $1.70. nobody is going to make money on that and that's a lot of jobs that the u.s. government and texas were planning on >> yeah, no, absolutely. all right, guys, thank you we'll see if that tariff talk does go anywhere on oil. that's the second time now we're hearing that in the last couple of weeks brian sullivan and paul sankey,
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we do appreciate it. and we turn to sue herrera now for the very latest on the coronavirus pandemic, as the number of cases continues to rise sue? >> indeed, they do, kelly. and the cdc just announcing a huge jump in u.s. coronavirus cases. it is now reporting 3,400 more cases than yesterday, raising the total above 10,500 the u.s. has now overtaken france and south korea for total virus cases. worldwide, there are now just short of 230,000 cases and more than 9,300 dead. just moments ago, we also learned that italy has passed china in total deaths at 3405. new york's governor cuomo is blasting millennials partying on spring break in spite of the coronavirus outbreak he says their behavior is irresponsible. >> these pictures of young people on beaches, these videos of young people saying, this is
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my spring break, i'm out to party, this is my time to party. this is so unintelligent and reckless, i can't even begin to express it >> and as always, for more coronavirus coverage, you can head to cnbc.com and we'll have more from that briefing in our next update. kelly? >> all right, sue, we'll see you then, sue herrera. let's get you caught up on the markets right now, about half past the hour. another pretty volatile day with the dow swinging more than 1,200 points right now it's up by 26 point. s&p up by a little more than half a percent the nasdaq is the leader today, up 2.7%. so as you can imagine, the dow leaders include dow, the chemicals company, mcdonald's, and disney walgreens and pfizer are the worst performers walgreens was one of the standouts yesterday. today, it's giving up nearly 9%. some retailers are in the green, capri holdings, williams sonoma, kohl's, and lululemon are each
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seeing a rally of more than 11%. williams sonoma is up more than 20%. energy stocks are soaring, too, and some of these gains, we have noble, apache, devon, and schlumberger and after a 21% drop yesterday for uber and a 14% drop for lyft, both of those stocks on the rebound. lyft up 28%. why the turnaround in sentiment. let's head to deirdre bosa for some answers for us. deirdre, what's going on with these names? >> this is certainly some relief, but keep in mind even with today's gains, both of these stocks are still down about 50% year-to-date there is a long ways to go however, they are popping today as you pointed out, because there was an uber analyst call this morning ceo dara said we are going to weather the storm. even with an 80% plunge in gross
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bookings, they would still have about $4 billion in available cash, that includes a $2 billion short-term credit facility so you'll also see that lyft shares are popping on this the reason for that is a little bit less clear these names do appear to be in lockstep however, dara koz said they'll continue to see rides go down a lot and plus, they also don't have that food delivery business but as you mentioned, kelly, both are just surging after losing a lot of market cap over the last few months. >> deirdre, indeed, they are we appreciate it, deirdre bosa out west for us today. in the meantime, movie theater stocks are also soaring after the national association of theater owners has called on congress for a bailout you can see there share s of
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cinemark up 50%. julia boorstin has those details for us julia? >> that's right, kelly last night, the national association of theater owners asked congress for a bailout and movie theater stocks are rebounding on that news. cinemark shares, as you mentioned, up 50%. this after they reassured investors about the company's liquidity and their balance sheet last night in a call with investors. it is worth noting that cinemark shares are still down 70% for the year imax shares are up about 40% amc shares are off about 64% this year. it is worth noting that amc shares have been hit, because that is the theater chain with the heaviest debt load now, this comes after the theater association said, quote, the business model of the movie theater industry is uniquely vulnerable in the present crisis the bailout proposal includes
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loan gauruarantee and tax benef now. this is part of the theater's effort to protect their 150,000 employees. >> all right julia, we appreciate it. yet another piece of this story to keep our eye on as this moves through washington coming up, new york city is preparing for a big patient influx and they may turn to hotels for help. we'll get those details. plus, restaurants are rebounding somewhat, with some names up double digits. but the month-to-date numbers are still staggering with many of these numbers down more than 30%. we will speak with the ceo of papa john's about what plans the company has to deal with the economic slowdown and these cities shutting down across the country. stay with us i consulted with your grandmother's doctor.
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welcome back shares of american airlines down 11% right now. the ceo, doug parker, saying this is the worst crisis he's ever seen. he just spoke with phil lebeau a short time ago phil joins me now with more. phil >> kelly, this was a sobering conversation i've talked with doug parker a number of times over the years generally speaking, i find him to be a fairly optimistic ceo. but in this case, it was pretty dire, the situation that he was painting in fact, he says this is the
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worst crisis the airline industry has ever seen, far worse than ever 9/11 remember, the airlines were shut down for a couple of days after 9/11 and for a long time, it was hard to see much momentum gathering, but eventually, over the course of a year, people started flying again. well, one reason why he considers this far worse is that there is no indication we have seen the bottom in terms of demand in fact, he says, they're continuing to see increase in cancellations and bookings are just not there so when you take a look at shares of american airlines, the thing to keep in mind is, they're not seeing a bottom. and this is not just with american we're hearing from all of the airline executives the $25 billion or $50 billion in aid that is being considered on capitol hill, which would include $25 billion in loans as well as $25 billion in grants to the airlines, doug parker believes that would be enough to sustain the airline industry for about six months, if business conditions do not get any worse. and as i just mentioned, they
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see no indication that there is going to be a bottom in terms of demand one last thing, no one in d.c., according to doug parker, has suggested that they stop flying. that you shut down the industry overall, as he pointed out to me and he has in the past, once you do that, you run into a multitude of issues for the industry, in terms of pilots who have to meet certain levels of training, positioning aircraft it's not as simple as shutting it down and bringing it back up. but i've talked to doug parker a number of times, and the sobering comments from him, when he said over and over, he said, far worse than 9/11, worst thing he's ever seen in this industry. and he's been in this industry now i think now for about 30 years. >> and turning to the autos, which now have the big three plants shut down for a few weeks, tesla, has been under scrutiny for keeping that plant open in california for workers now we have an alameda county spokesman saying that the city of fremont is meeting with tesla to discuss that lockdown order let me ask you this, because elon musk floated the idea that
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that factory could be used to produce ventilators or respirator ifs the medical system needed it -- >> and we've heard that from other automakers, as well. >> that's exactly what i was going to ask if we have these shplants shut down for a couple of weeks, it is feasible to be repurposing them >> they've offered and extended to the prrngs, if we can help out with the manufacturing of ventilators, we would certainly like to. in the case of ford and general motors, they're saying, if we have extra space within a facility and the expertise and manufacturing where we could assist in the manufacturing of ventilators, we would like to do so they are not talking about re-tooling an assembly line that is building an suv and now retooling it to build ventilators. >> still, again, any little bit might help here. phil, we appreciate it phil lebeau in chicago today speaking of ford, suspensions of major firm's capital programs, dividends, stock buybacks have been ra ratcheting up.
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mgm resorts was the early bird today making its announcement a week ago about a buyback suspension the major banks did the same over the weekend and now we have a flurry of notable firms all announcing buybacks and dividends suspensions in the last 24 hours. marriott, ford, darden, ross stores, i just saw t.j. maxx is one of them, tjx, the parent company. many are expecting these in upcoming earnings reports. , with coronavirus cases spiking in new york city and hotel visits flumting, city officials are eyeing all of those empty beds for sick people contessa brewer joins me now with those grim details. contessa >> they're trying to figure out how they come up with all the empty beds they think they're going to need for this outbreak, kelly. so for one thing, the mayor has ordered hospitals to expedite the discharge of patients. he says, all elective surgeries need to be canceled and then we'll find beds. we'll reopen hospitals that have been closed, find them in cafeterias or parking lots and put up tents if necessary.
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we also know that the city is talking to the javits center, the big conference facility in new york city that is normally hosting massive conferences aboutfunctioning as a hospital the u.s. navy ship "the comfort" is heading here in april that will bring some beds. but they think they can get about 1,300 beds by going to the hotels that have seen plummeting occupancy and using some hotel beds for sick people now, these would not be contagious coronavirus patients, but these would be people who need some level of medical care for other conditions, but that they could be housed in hotels and then some of the medical core that they're bringing on, 9,000 reserve medical core, maybe retired doctors and nurses and social workers, could then go into the hotels and treat some of these other people we know, where i'm standing here in lower manhattan at new york presbyterian hospital, there are six hotels within just a couple of blocks. at least two of them already are
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housing health care workers who are coming in to do their jobs they also, the hotels around the city are being used to quarantine and isolate city workers who can't go home. now the question is, how much could they be called into demand to house patients? kelly? >> it's fascinating that this is already underway, like you said, to help the health care workers. contessa, tessa brewer is in man p papa johns had to shut down restaurants and it could be deja vu here at home. and as we head to break, take a look at the itb, the home construction etf that's gotten shellacked lennar executive chair stewart miller saying on their earnings call the company is still ivthroh rimes and offeng dre-ugclosings we're back in two. my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. mmm... good. so i've spent my life developing technology
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have been hit hard amid coronavirus shutdowns. just look at these month-to-date losses you have wendy's down 50%. today a little bit of a bounceback kate rogers joins me now with more >> we're seeing names rally today including starbucks, shake shack, chipotle, and mcdonald's. casual names are also making big comebacks, even as nearly 30 states have limited restaurants now to delivery or takeout and the national restaurant association is predicting $225 billion in lost sales over the next three months. among the biggest gainers today is papa john's, it's up about 25%. the company has its own delivery fleet. papa john's ceo rob lynch joins us now >> thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me >> talk to us how business has been since the virus outbreak and if you've had to make any changes about how papa john's is delivering to customers. >> the pizza delivery business is uniquely set up to persevere
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during these challenging times we are focused on delivering safe food and creating safe jobs, which are going to help our communities stay safe. we've taken stroome extra precautionary measures on sanitizing our restaurants and also implementing contact list delivery, which will allow our delivery employees to deliver pizza to customers without ever coming in contact with them. so, you know, we're doing everything we can to make sure that we're creating safe environments and it's critical right now. we're serving a very valuable role in the community, as we all work to get through these times. >> so, rob, delivery and takeout are the two major ways that customers can now access food from restaurants domino's put out a big press release announcing it's really staffing up. are you looking to create even more jobs as demand continues to rise >> we are higher big time. we need great employees. our restaurants are ready to recruit and train and staff to
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meet the expected oncoming demand we're looking at as a result of some of the other food options being closed down. i feel terrible for my peers in the restaurant industry that have dining room restaurants but we're going to try to pick up that slack and make sure that all of america's customers have access to safe, high-quality food during these challenging times. >> i was tweeting that out, rob, to make sure people are aware, if they're looking for that right now. i just wanted to ask you what happens. there's a lot of different plans under evaluation by local governments, the extent to which they might shut down in place or lock things down right now are you concerned that at some point your delivery service would be interrupted and can all of your workers count on this continuing to remain open, do you think? >> that is not what we saw internationally and frankly a lot of us were on a call with
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the president and secretary mnuchin on tuesday where they highlighted how critical it was to maintain the food supply to america's customers, america's citizens during these challenging times. and they called specifically how much support they were giving behind drive-through, takeout, and delivery asyou know, our pizza business is set up and has been set up to deliver in that way for years. we're experts at it. as i mentioned, we are taking extra precautions to make sure we are as safe as we can possibly be for our employees, our potential new employees as we staff up dramatically and for our customers. >> you had to close some stores in china and korea as this was going on can you talk about some of the biggest lessons you learned doing it there >> the piz model is different across the globe in china, the restaurants that we closed were primarily restaurants that were located in
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shopping malls and other facilities that were closed. so we were forced to close those do down in china and south korea, where we have a much bigger delivery footprint, much more consistent what we have here in the united states, we did not have to shut down those restaurants and we were able to significantly help out by continuing to serve customers in those geographies, where they're serviced by delivery model, which is very consistent with what we have in the united states >> and as we know, the situation, of course, does continue to evolve if closures are forced here in the united states, what's the game plan to help franchisees and employees? >> you know, we're always working with our franchisees to make -- you know, help them as much as we possibly can. we have just implemented in our company restaurants 14-day pay policy for employees that have to stay home for health issues and we're working with our franchisees to make sure that they're taking care of their
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employees, as well >> okay, rob, we are going to leave it right there thank you so much for calling in during this important time for the industry >> thank you very much, kate >> yeah, great stuff, kate really appreciate it, kate rogers bringing us the ceo of papa john's, who says that he is hiring and doesn't expect any interruption in their business could be good news to a lot of people stuck at home are looking for extra work or income right now. details of a massive trillion dollar income package are still in flux. many expect it to include direct payments to american citizens. joining me right now is marty who is ceo of paychex who has offered its service for checks during this vie -- crisis the it's great to have you >> thanks. s your stock is the worst in the nasdaq this market has been so crazy.
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do you have any insight to what's going on there? >> i really don't. we have a very strong business model. we're up and running completely. we have about 90% of our employees working from home and still providing great service and we have great cash positions. i'm really not sure. when you look at that, it's not really based on too much of anything at this point we turn to you on the subject of maybe how to fix that. he said wii loe're looking to pl providers. how quickly can they get cash from the government to people? >> i think we could do it very quickly. we move hundreds of millions of dollars every evening all day
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when we're transferring payroll funds and 401(k) trading funds and so forth i think we did it with katrina we got money to the victims very quickly. we could do this quickly and i think we're well set up to do it we know,000 move money through the system and we now how to do it quickly and efficiently we also do it through direct deposit and into banks paper checks, if that's needed pay cards. you name it. we have pay on demand service which allows people if they earn eight hours today that they can get paid tonight if they want to do it. we're very well set up in the money transfer position. >> is this something you're in active discussions with the government about doing >> there is some discussions i think right now they learning more ward the irs to do it but we have offered our services the say that we're available we have over 670,000 clients have been in business for over four decades i think we're always ready to offer our services to anything
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that the government needs. it's great private and government partnership, private business and partnership we can work on. >> it's also good to have you hear we learned the jobless claims numbers spiked a lot higher last week since you have this window into what's going on with hiring and firing, can you give us any data about what it's like out there >> it's pretty early obviously, i think most of our clients and small mid size businesses and all businesses, are feeling the pressure of this i think the biggest thing that can be done by the government, a lot of steps they are already taking which is get money into the small business small business drives america and i think if we get more money into small businesses quicker and this is through waiving the employee side, that gives them immediate cash through the low interest or no interest loans. we heard that one of the proposals is covering six weeks worth of pay for your employees
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as a small business. hopefully that gets approved we want to keep small businesses if beginning out ofbusiness an if the government can do that quickly, there's even a job sharing discussion where keep your employees on instead of laying one off and keeping one, let them job share and unemployment insurance may help pick up the difference there's a lot of good creative government ideas going on now in steps they are taking. you got to keep small businesses in business. give them the cash flow they need up front. give them a loan whatever they need to do to keep people working will be really important. >> absolutely. do you have people calling you up right now saying how do i stop paychecks from going out or, in other words, with those kinds of business interruption issues already >> you do see some we haven't had too much yet. we haven't seen too much i think they are trying to wait and see what kind of support that they are going to get from the government because there's so much going on
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also, when you stay with p paychex, we will help you through paying the sick time, extended parental leave. we have hr, we provide hr services with over 6700 00 hr service across the country i think we're well positioned if you stay with company like us to help you through this very fast changing state and federal regulations that are going on so you get the most out of it and have a good shot of staying in business >> what would be the relative advantage of going with the payroll providers as opposed to the irs or vice versa? >> i think both will work well both know how to move money very quickly and get it into the right hands. we're must'ving hundreds of millions of dollars through the banking system very efficientive and very safely and securely
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i think we would be a strong player for that. i think all we need is the data that we could set up quite quickly. i'm sure the irs could do it as well we're ready and able to help out if the government need us. >> thanks for joining me today and explaining it to us. speaking of employment, information out of new york today that could be a harbinger of things to come. the department of labor website is averaging 250,000 log ins per day. that's a 400% increase they're seeing 1,000% increase of claims. they receive about 10,000 calls a day but on tuesday they had over 757,000 calls and to address the increase they hadded more than 700 staff members to address the influx they are like papa johns we're going to talk with the ceo of best western about that and his meeting with the president earlier this week. don't go anywhere.
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good afternoon we start with breaking news on another volatile day the dow swinging more than 1,000 points the market continues to grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus. how deep, how long nasdaq is leading the way up about 4% thanks to some of the big tech players bouncing back that would be facebook, amazon, netflix and alphabet restaurant stocks, no. not very nice. the industry asking for a $325 billion bail out as coronavirus shuts down business in many cities those stocks are reacting to that id that idea, as you see.
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