tv Power Lunch CNBC March 19, 2020 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
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good afternoon we start with breaking news on another volatile day the dow swinging more than 1,000 points the market continues to grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus. how deep, how long nasdaq is leading the way up about 4% thanks to some of the big tech players bouncing back that would be facebook, amazon, netflix and alphabet restaurant stocks, no. not very nice. the industry asking for a $325 billion bail out as coronavirus shuts down business in many cities those stocks are reacting to that id that idea, as you see.
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>> the state department advising u.s. citizens not to travel internationally and return home. they raised the advisory level to four. huwan which was ground zero reported its first day without a new case we have full team coverage for you here bob is tracking another wild session for stocks rick, is watching the bond market for us. kayla has the very latest on the action this d.c. we start with you bob. >> an important thing here today is even though 50 point swing in the s&p 500 would have been insane a month ago, it's kind of normal now it's lower volatility than what we have been seeing recently i think that's the key point about what's been happening. if you look at the leadership, it's also different. for once we're seeing, for example, bank stocks doing better energy stocks doing better technology doing a little bit better what has been the leadership or what has been going down has
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been held care, for example, consumer staples and they are lagging today. there is a an attempt to buy the most losing sectors and some of the most sectors that have been down the least they are playing something different. you know what's going on if the malls. it's been down 60% this month. biggest landlord in the u.s. said they closing their malls and outlets. take a look at apache. trying to rally for two days banks some of these stocks down 50% or many. having the best way to its
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crisis began over a month ago and several of the big super regionals. also having their best day in a month. back to you. >> bob, thanks very much hi, rick >> hi, tyler we're down about 20 basis points and two year note yields were down the curve is steepening. it's called the bull steepener because prices are going up but steepening nn thel ining noneth. we pretty much whitewashed yesterday. every one was nervous. we saw raises rate a bit it's a strange dynamic in fixed
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income land. look at the dollar index this chart starts january of 2017 it's just been a stellar move with regard to what's going on in foreign exchange volatility remember, tomorrow's the third friday of march. march, june, third fridays, quadruple. it might no t be as intense as people think many of those put are rolliworr about rolling over going to be a big one tomorrow back to you. kayla, what can you tell us? >> reporter: well, kelly, we are awaiting the president going to fema, having that teleconference
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with the governors, talking about efforts at the state level to combat this virus that is expanding by the day i've been talking to sources who are close to discussions on capitol hill where the senate and the house are trying to put be ento pap pen to paper on what this stimulus package looks like. the price fashion is expetag iso grow it's likely to only get bigger the second point is lawmakers are skeptical about a bail out of boeing. they believe there are many industries and many companies that are deserving of stimulus because the coronavirus, as they see it, is an act of god boeing have been describing in the same realm as aig become in the financial crisis whose current situation is the result of their own corporate decision. underwriting a lot of risky securities in boeing case, the issue with
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the 737 max throughout the course of this year. unclear whether the administration will step in and say there's a national security or some sort of strategic importance but it's clear the way that lawmakers want to describe this package is provide much needed injection into the american economy >> as i explained yesterday that legislation was hardly perfect it imposes new cost and uncertainty on small businesses at precisely the most challenging moment for small businesses in living memory. the senate is even more determines that our legislation cannot leave small business behind >> reporter: it's clear that helping small business here is politically palatablpalatable. then there's the question of what do you do for businesses that are stuck in the middle who are not small and they're not being but really hurting at this time back to do you
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>> thank you very much the dow is on base for its worst week since the financial crisis in 2008 out doing last week's record selling sell off. the president and mobile chief i vestment for wells fargo asset management let me begin can some discuss about the bond market and why we're seeing what we're seeing there. it seems counterintu tiitive tht yields might have moved higher in recent days what does that tell you. does it tell you that nobody wants to buy longer dated bonds and wants to go into cash so they got to pay more interest to attract buyers >> i think there's some of that. you have to remember there's a lot of unwarranting of leverage and in the equity market collateral like treasuries that you were posting are fo longer needed i think that's had some effect don't forget there's going to be
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an awful lot of supply here. i think the market is digesting that as well to your point, the trade given all the volatility earlier in the week was the short end of the treasury curve look, i think at the end of the day i think the treasury market is functioning as best it can. on the run treasuries are trading. a lot better than it was on monday what's interesting to me is i think we're all benefitting in an ironic way from the problems in 2008 because the government, in my mind, is bringing out the same play book in a lot of ways that we did in 2008. the money markets are much more stable today with this new facility than they were yesterday. >> joe, we're assuming the
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market is pricing in a recession here what if this is worse than a recession? >> well, it's possible we have done some work on recessions and the different kinds of you get there are cyclical recessions and structural ones. this is clear an event driven recession which means on average it's about a 30%, 29% if you go back in time typical decline. if it's a secular decline it can go as much as 58%. going into this, pes were fine there were no structural issues with the banks we're coming in with a very different backdrop than we did in 2000 when valuations were very stretched we had a lot of people other financing their homes. that's not the case. that means while the earnings projections are questionable today given the uncertainty we have the recovery should be a lot quicker. event driven recessions, average
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29%. we're down 35 already. the recoveries tend to be much, much quicker again, i think what i would suggest to people is we already priced in the recession do you really believe it will be a lot worse. if it is, are you going to be able to get back in soon enough to capture the recovery. what we si ay to people is keepa long term perspective. we're going to get through this. we're eight weeks behind asia. asia is coming back online it will be messy but we have already gone through the big part of the decline. that doesn't mean we're not going to mess around, bumping
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around bit the worst thing you do is make short term emotional decisions it will completely change your long term plans. >> are you worried that companies will be furloughing workers whether it's marriott and others will be quick to fire and not so quick to rehire >> we're very concerned about the labor market and unemployment we'll have to see. i think a lot of the government programs are going to help in terms of assisting individuals the what impact will that have on consumer spending in the economy. there's no question the economy is taking a big dent we're going to have to keep watching those particular sectors and individuals will be affected by this >> joe, you meant to reassure me that, thank goodness we don't have a structural problem in the
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economy. i guess i am grateful for that fact but we have an economy when you drive to work, it feels like christmas morning. nobody is on the road. no businesses are open it is a ghost town we have an economy that's fundamentally, at least in the region, ground almost to a halt. my question has to do with leverage we have much more debt and liquidity. the amount of leverage when you have a global shutdown, it exposes the risk that maybe other bsh was really incon sooefrable before.
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if you're diversified you'll be fine we're doing it kelly did a very nice job with her newsletter every day that will mean, that if you take some of the leverage out of the system or change the terms on that that a lot of the return on equity might come down a little. that does not mean with the 35% decline we priced a lot of that in there it lacks one event that will change our models about the level of risk you can take when you boar remoney or lend money the ramifications where it's the unemployment that we talked about how aggressively people furlough or rehire
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how we borrow and lend money will change some even if we have a recovery that 70 or 80% of that in the next five or six month, multiples still look quite attractive. that's the thing to keep in mind >> thank you as well we appreciate your time today. we'll be checking back with you soon hotel stocks have been bouncing back today. marriott hilton. we have more on the hotel industry >> let's start with marriott they said occupancy levels have fallen to below 25% from about 70% a year ago it's roll out a number of changes. it's suspended dividends and halting sharer buyback
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cutting salaries for executive team members by 50%. i spoke with the chairman who owned 130 hotels he is looking to convert three properties he's drafting a proposal that he will be sending to each city that those hotels are located in >> stay with us. we want to discuss this further with david he's the ceo and president of best western hotels and resorts. it's one of the hotel leaders who met with the president on tuesday. it's great that you can join under the circumstances. first of all, how bad are things for your operations right now? >> it's very bad if you consider the last worst decline that we had in the industry was in 2009 and we
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declined in revenue by 16% last week it was worse than 40%. it happened so abruptly. >> now, of course, every one is trying to figure out how to keep your employees please remind us how many of them you have. how you can keep them going. what would it take in terms of support and assistance from the government >> we have well over 2,000 hotels in the united states alone. most of these are small businesses owned by hard working men and women. they're business is up tremendously only about 3% of the hotels are closed most of our hotels that are still open don't know how much they can last given the situation. thaim very thankful for kon
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congre -- congress and the administration moving so fast to provide relief for small businesses i'm hopeful it will provide further relief to say open >> you said 3% of your hotels are closed are you going to convert any of those into makeshift hospitals to make with the shortage the nation is dealing with now >> every one has to do his or her share. i think our hotels would want to help out in this regard. at the same time we can't put our employees at risk. >> david, you alongside other hotel ceos, you were at the white house on tuesday you proposed or requested $150
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billion bail out when do you expect to hear back from the trump administration on that >> well, at the white house meeting with the president and vice president and secretary ross, we impress on them the you are jen-- urgent and dire situan the industry is in we talked about employee rehiring i was very encouraged with the president's reception. he was interested. he w he demonstrated the leadership qualities that one hoped to see. he said he was working on solutions for businesses large and small. for individuals who had been harmed
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he projected optimism about the future i'm impressed with how fast congress with working with the administration to get things done >> david, i'm curious if you can elaborate a bit. you said you were down 40% last week in terms of business. how much that's picked up from two weeks ago. how much worse do you think it might get. maybe you can kind of give us more of a decryscriptive languae and where the declines are the worst now? >> it's tied together. let me comment that the decline is uneven. the major cities, new york city, chicago, los angeles, these cities are hurting the most. they have seen the worst decline. when i say 40 some percent, that's the average industry. you think about those major cities, some of them running 10% occupancy or in single digits. those are the hotels that are
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having to close because there's no way they can make it. the impact is uneven at this point. >> all right david, we thank you for joining us today for some of the color on that meeting with the the president add well and what's happening in your hotels david kong is the ceo of best western. the federal reserve has been working to stabilize the markets. steve has been speaking to the boston fed president >> good afternoon. the boston fed is in charge of this new money market fund he hopes this new fund will restore the liquidity where businesses put their money and where they have to take them out. that causes the money markets not to be able to fund other businesses that are out there so the fed stepped in
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boston in charge of that and it opens up on monday here is what else he told me he expects markets to stabilize. it could take a week or two. talking about the credit markets because it takes time for this stuff to work. can't just expect it to happen overnight. he says this backstop should address the dysfunction and he will see significantly more layoffs over nec week or two we also talked about some other things here is what he said >> i think at this point we should just go day by day and everything should be on the table. things we think will help stabilize financial markets. the goal of the federal reserve is to avoid financial spillovers there's nothing we can do about the fact that the coronavirus is a major hit to the economy people that are working in public health and fiscal proil are going to have very fa substantial roles.
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>> here is a list of things. there's only two things on the list it opened dollar swap lines with nine foreign central banks the day is young it was midnight in europe when they did their 750 billion euro purchase the day is still young we may get more stuff from the fed. he says everything should be on the table. >> for sure. thanks again, steve. we'll have much more news still ahead. going to take a quick break. here are the sectors leading with the dow up 374 points today. it's energy with a rebound in oil. we'll be right back. through the at&t network, edge-to-edge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business.
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>> thanks. thanks for joining us. you just announced a 60 day mor tor rum for e kwiks so l-- are u considering something more drastic? >> we're immediately focused on the next 60 days we'll roll out something larger, if it looks like this crisis will go beyond that. we are hoping to extend that time period if need be nobody has to worry about losing their home and people can stay in place during this crisis. >> will it hit their credit score? >> if you are experiencing a hardship because of this crisis, you have to reach out to your
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servicer if you're in a forebearance plan, it will not be reported to your credit bureau if you don't reach out to your lender and boent pay, you will get hit. it's so important for lenders, for borrowers to reach out to their lender >> we have no idea how long this will go on >> we have changed our expect to expect more flat price environment, if this does go on for a considerable amount of time, we may see some real price declines everybody wants to stay in their home that's the positive. what we're trying to do is facilitate people staying in
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their home and not walking away. if quicker we get through this, the quicker that people who have lost their jobs can regain their jobs and get back to this. i think this will be something we can get through pretty quickly. our informs today is dealing with the public health and hardship affects on the families >> the borrowers don't pay, what about the mortgage bond holders. for the delinquencies if this is a short term event six to eight weeks we believe the servicers are equipped to get thu this time if this goes beyond that, then we may have to look for public assistance from congress, from the fed.
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>> thanks so much for joining us back to you. >> thank you very much i'll kick it over to kelly >> let's get to sue in terms of the latest >> in italy, the death toll continues to rise. a total of 3405 deaths have been reported that's 150 more than in china. it's pivots from yaz asia. the red cross has been forced to cancel all blood drives. the u.s. concern general says that has created an acute shortage of blood. >> donated blood is an essential part of caring for nations one donation can save up to three lives. blood centers are in need of
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your donation. blood donation is safe >> carnival is asking governments to consider using cruise ships as temporary hospitals. it says it has more than 100 ships with room for more than 250,000 non-covid-19 patients. that would free up hospitals as they deal with the influx of coronavirus patients president trump says he will ask the governors of new york and california to see if those ships would be helpful as fualways, you can head to cnbc.com let's bring in meg with a look at what the united states is learning from the likes of china and italy about flattening that infection curve
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>> our team sees this looking first to china for what it diz did to flatten its own curb. it took about 25 days in other words to see the red line that is china's total cases start to flatten. that's the blue line is global cases. those started to rise from italy, across europe and in the united states. they are using that data to see when the mortality rate started to spike they found that by early april on the current trajectory that's when they start to see us getting into real trouble in the u.s. in terms of our intensive
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care sp care capacity. if we want to flatten the curve that's the best case scenario. they say we need to start seeing even stronger quarantines across the united states. >> how hearted are american epidemologists that there's not been new cases in china. >> they think that is good news. everybody is taking that as it's great but we need to see what happens as china starts opening up, going back to work, moving around more and people are closely watching what's happening with imported cases into china and other countries that seem to be able to quesque their own outbreaks. everybody is cautiously optimistic but waiting to see what happens >> you're in the running for
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best home set design here. >> i'm glad you said it. i was thinking think >> it's looking good out there >> i'm northerned. thanks let's move onto oil. >> that's right. see seemingly rare rally you can see wti of 22% brent up 13% this is a lot of green in is the best sale percentage gain. it's important to note it's still on track for its worst month ever just another indication of the wild markets that we're seeing of late. some analysts caution that any gains are likely temporary as the primary focus is still coronavirus and its long term demand impact. back to you. still ahead, coronavirus has rattled the markets and shut down small businesses around the world and silicon valley is no
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. it is a mixed bag and that's pretty good news for restaurant stocks while some are holding up and others continue to fall. concerns as the industry pushes d.c. for a bail out. kate rogers has the details. >> while stocks are rallying from casual dining names the the restaurant industry is facing an uncertain future the national restaurant association projects lost saells up to $225 billion requesting a relief fund of 145 billion for the industry some 9.4 million jobs may be impacted at bars and restaurants. restaurant tour cameron mitchell laid it out.
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>> i was in d.c. to meet with my bankers. i expretsssed the great start o the year this was march 3rd tomorrow, march 19th, we will be completely shut down i laid off 4200 people on monday >> the national restaurant association says this is the biggest challenge for the industry in a generation >> back over to you. >> do you have any sense of how many restaurants have been shuttered that will never come back i believe i heard a chef on one of scott special broadcasts saying he would expect a massive rate >> i've seen numbers of like 75%. you have no idea but the other thing is they were already facing a labor challenge because the my was doing so well there's no guarantee they will
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be there and ready to hire once you're ready to reopen it's really uncertain. very uncertain future for a lot of these companies >> thanks very much. coronavirus is freezing silicon valley in its track and it's drying up deals katejoining us with that story >> hey, kelly. venture capital investors tell me most deals are on hold until coronavirus uncertainty clears up and start evaluations may take a hit the in bern meetings, management can't happen investors aren't sure both parties can build up enough trust to make decisions around huge amounts of capital. in weaker economy, investors aren't as comfortable betting on future growth.
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they may have to cut costs another factor, credit markets many tell me they won't be yudsing debt yuds i -- using debt in the near term. when the time is right they had 1.5 trillion dollars of dry powder going into this year. not all start ups will make it some founded in down times will thrive you have square, uber and instagram built around the 2008 financial crisis kelly. >> i think about that all the time we were a couple of years out of that we were focused on wall street and the banks. you had this whole new crop of companies out west some activity like that will still be happening today let me ask you about the deals that's such a great point. are these guys coming up with any substitute, you can't get to no someone over zoom video but are they coming up with any ice
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breakers or ways of trying to keep that going. >> the ones that have met the management teams seem the continue with the deal flow. it does seem to be up to zoom video or some sort of video chat to get to know these guys. it's getting to know the founders and the management team physical you can do that in person some people aren't comfortable spending the huge amount of capitals that it takes. >> thanks so much. after the break, the we expect thomas keller to join us on his international business. we'll be right back. sfx: [phone ringing]
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over 1200 employees. it's difficult a lot of them are counting on paycheck from week to week to support themselves and their family it's difficult situation that's probably my biggest concern. second to that is making sure our restaurants are able to survive through this time and reopen we can't survive and reopen then there's no knobs for our team to come back to those are my two most important aspects that's going on at this moment >> what have you done, if anything, to soften the blow of those 1200 employees who you had to furlough? >> we will continue to offer them their health benefits that's going to be good for them they have that we're starting with what we're calling a soup kitchen in one of our restaurants that will be able to help feed them through this time. we offer them food and nutrition through this time. we have a garden for them to
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work in. we'll continue to try to do the best we can to keep them as busy as possible through these uncertain times. >> what have your relationships been with landlords and the property owners? i assume you rent some space and probably own some of your spaces have you gone to those landlords and said what relief can you give me in. >> some of them. we own three of our properties here in california we are our own landlords but the ones we do lease whether it's in new york or miami, we're really working with them to defer some of our payments and the same thing with our banks to help defer some of our mortgage obligations for the time being those are huge -- these are huge obligations for us, financial obligations. trying to mitigate it the best we this ripples through because
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you have suppliers and their business dries up. it moves back up the supply chain in a very serious way. are any of your domestic locations open for business, open for carry out >> we have the baker here that we'll start to begin to do take out tomorrow coffees in the morning and just if you ha muffins so people have place to come and get some nutrition. we don't know how that will work out. we don't know if there's a demand >> how quickly did this disaster come down on you if you went back to the first of march when you were still operating in many places, i assume at lower turn ous than
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normal to today, how much has fallen off now it's at revenue zero pretty much across your system but how quickly did the slide it >> two weeks two weeks or less. it went from being fully capable of supporting our restaurants and sporting our teams with the revenue being created through our guests that's the most important thing is our guests coming now we're down to zero there are zero revenue coming in which means we have to really, really tighten our belts and make sure that we are acting responsibly for our restaurant at the end of the day, we need help there are 15 million people in our profession that don't have health care or who live paycheck to paycheck. the national restaurant association says fi5 to 7 millin of our jobs will be lost 225 billion in losses, loss of restaurant just short term
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alone. we're looking at major difficulty in the coming year. we'll need some help i'm proud of our colleagues who have come together throughout the country to help support the ideas of what we need to do as a profession it's not just restaurants and chefs. we're talking about everybody in food services. the cafeteria workers at the schools, the hospitals everybody who supplies it, it's extraordinary. >> i was listening to the other day about an oyster farmer on the jersey shore he sid his business supplying restaurants has just fallen to zero because no one is going to restaurants. he's still got expenses to take
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care of his oyster beds. i don't mean to be too dire here but how long could you hold on before you get to a point where you say we're not beginning to be able to open this particular relocation >> it's new we have one here and that's in new york which are very new restaurants so they're requiring ing a lot of attention certainly a lot of resources, beoth financially and human resources to make them successful so you know, we have to be very careful moving forward and being able to really maintain as much resources. financial resources that we can so that we can reopen the restaurants. how long will that be? we're not sure yet >> yeah, we wish you all the best our mutual friend neftali said he had three apples and a chocolate bar. go follow his advice
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good luck to you zpl thank you. >> i'll sign up for that, too. let's get a quick check on these markets. we've got the dow, the s&p and nasdaq all holding on to their gains but the nasdaq is the real standout today the nasdaq is up almost 5% in the faang index is up about 8% in terms of breakout, it's crude. up 25% on pace for its best day ever still doup 18% in the past week. let's bring in tim and sarat good to have you both here and tim, i just want to begin with you on this rebound today. is this just exhaustion from the selling, almost kind of a clock work kind of rebound because as bill miller said yesterday, you can't keep sustaining panic at these levels >> i think people are assessing brent prices, which ever you're following and if you look at
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spot prices, there's a combination of some technical levels you got back down to those 2016 first quarter lows in both wti and brent and some part of the technical soir tories i think on the fundamental story, there's plenty of speculation there's a push on the additional pumping that's coming out of opec and the reality those fiscal both budgets and saudi arabia at $85 a barrel and even in russia, it's 45. you know, there is a moment of sanity here and there's a lot of geo politics behind the scenes that i think are starting to weigh in we are an extreme oversold positions. obviously, recession as a fallout from the crisis here is how people need to assess oil and gas demand and the it's particularly acute and very different than in 2016 when you consider what's going on with the airlines ultimately in commodity prices, in oil, we've seen this so many times. there's a supply response.
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in some cases comes from cutbacks and loss of cap ex. >> in other words, you're saying you think that the oil rebound today is leading the rest of the market higher? is that what you're saying and b, do you think that pattern can e persist or is it more descriptive of today's action? >> i think what can't persist is seeing present prices at $27 a barrel or certainly not you know couldn't at $20 a barrel so my view is i don't know that oil prices are leading global markets. i think investors have had a chance to see where first of all, speculation and then you kind of from extreme leverage come out of a lot of commodity funds in addition to all the other funds and get back some levels of fundamentals we know we're going to be massively oversupplied in the short to median term the future's curve et cetera we've seen this before oil demand will be grgrowing ins
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we've seen the last 20 years, it's inching up every year >> a lot of the so-called faang names are leading the market today. are those where you would be investing or are you looking elsewhere? zbr i thi>> it's a combination g at a few other things. no doubt googles and facebooks are well capitalized especially when you think about where people are using their free time. whether they're searching or on instagram and a few other things if you look at the broader market to tim's point, the market isover sold at this point and nobody can e tell you where the bottom is. we've been saying hold on to what you have even though it's painful then look to add if you have the risk appetite to good, high quality companies that we feel have been oversold. you had companies like disney and jpmorgan to that list and you look at the rebound today and look, you've seen this seesaw every other day
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i'm 10%. but if you can add to high quality good balance sheet companies going into what we know is a slow down for one or two quarter, i think coming out of this, this gives you that opportunity to feel much better to the companies you own and to kind of get companies you want to own for the next three to five years >> and like you said, disney, jpmorgan, i see here lowe's, cvs, google. is that the only place you feel comfort snnl. >> i think the list can be longer those are just some examples what i was try iing to show is doesn't all have to be in technology it could with cvs and health care it could be a blackstone in financials that has so much dry powder that when things get disstressed, they have the ability to go in and buy companies and they're also well diversified in other assets.
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so when i look at louis for example, people are going to spend more time at home and they're going to spend more time you know building up their kitchens doing other work there so here's a company again that's not very levered that is a consumer driven company and i think once we get back to some type of normalcy, this is a company that i think is going to attract a lot more capital. a lot more interest. so what i was trying to do is say hey, you don't just have to be focused on one different area it's faangs are great, but then if you spread it out and look at health care, look at industrials, you look at you know, consumers discretionary, there are opportunities there that i think investors if you own them, hold them and if you havecapital and the appetite, add to companies like that >> all right thank you both guys, we appreciate it today sarat and tim. >> thank you a final check on the markets right after this short break a golf course is designed to be difficult.
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faang stocks are higher. you hard sarat say, that's a tongue twister, there for quality, but also other names. health care, too >> we'll be watching for the next hour here thank you all for watching >> and our continuing breaking news coverage starts or continues now in the last hour of the trading day >> welcome, everyone tyler is holding down the fort at cnbc headquarters for us as the new york stock exchange prepares to temporarily close the trading floor on monday. stocks are bouncing modestly 59 minutes until the closing bell governments around the world pumping money into the global economy including central bank action from the european central bank and bank of england as more industries seek bailouts jobless clai
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