welcome back and good afternoon. i'm tyler mathisson. our continuing market coverage carries on as the coronavirus spread puts the economy at a nearly stand still stocks are surging the dow up about 1400 points now. optimism on wall street sparked by what is perceived as movement in washington. this as 17 states now have issued stay at home orders others issuing partial shutdowns in cities as the number of cases

in the united states nears 50,000 the moves comes as the president pushes to reopen the country for business by easter we'll have more on that in a minute let's get right over to bob for more on what is leading this rally. hi, bob. >> this has been a very powerful rally. we are off of our highs. we had some tremendous volume moves early in the morning as we kept hitting new highs that's a good sign we're offer the highs. the most beaten up sectors are the leaders. industries down 27, 28%.

we were 80 on the vxxix a short while ago. you keep seeing it going down. that was over 50 a few day ago my favorite quote of the day, joseph walk, those of you trying to figure out what the earnings will be like, he was asked what his earnings would be like he said i know we'll be 100% precisely wrong. a little bit of welcome humility there. in next two weeks we'll hear earnings coming in and a lot of companies will decide not to provide guidance

>> a frinend said that dude had some really cool posters he referenced grateful dead poster i said it was probably leissman. >> it's right over here to my left here. i don't know if you can see it behind me. that's called the skull and rose, this grateful dead poster behind me. that's a very famous poster. that's a rare one. there's a led zeppelin one is miles davis it's from 1971 it's a hobby >> my friend said you're a cool dude and you are thanks >> thank you >> yields is what you have been stuck in a tight range rick is here >> it's a very interesting comment. we had a big auction of two years today. it wasn't a particularly great auction but we moved the paper

nonetheless. that's last time we're at these levels we're really compressing and the whole curve is compressing if you go further down the curve to tens, look at one week of tens last week we delivered 27 plus. bob calls it a temperature thermometer of the equity markets. hyg is the same thing for the credit markets e get up tick on the right side after hitting level we hasn't closed at since 2009 back to you.

>> thank you very much >> we are getting the first signs of coronavirus shutdown around the world showing up in the data those clouds will get darker and the first indications of what's going on in the economy. the worst will hit in the months ahead. let's look at what we got. today we got a bunch of purchasing managers in these are big drops. that's just what you get what we did is got called up and got forecast from major wall

street investment banks. some of numbers are ugly goldman sachs looking for a 24% second quarter decline jpmorg jpmorgan, 14%. these are declines we have almost never seen in the post war period we'll have to figure out why they are optimistic than everybody else add it all up, we have a median of the economists there of a 12% decline. they still look for a rebound. you don't get all of it back in the third quarter. the median forecast look fs for 6.2% rebound it's almost certainly not right but it will give us an indication as time goes by and data comes in of how much of a decline this forecast. are we doing better or worse than we initially thought and is

the rebound going to be stronger or weaker. that's why we're keeping track of this. >> the real debate is how quickly the economy will come back when it does come back or how different it's going to be for how long, right. >> people will act like something will happen like this again. economist vs a very quick answer to that which is the longer we are down, the longer and weaker we will come back. i think that's probably a good the quicker we come back, the less damages it will be. >> steve, thank you very much. despite today's bounce the majo averages are down. our next guest says there are signs the bottom may be close.

what are some signs? >> broken 200 de d 0 day. fell to almost zero percent. the second is in we're seeing this week is the break down of the vix. the vix is backing away down almost 50% from its highs. it's showing that the level of fears is starting to peak and it allows investors to think about what they can buy. thinking winners versus losers >> let's talk about the bounce back question. you point out in some of your research that on prior occasions when the market has fallen as precipitously as it has, maybe not as quickly, as deeply as it has but when it's fallen to these levels the snap back has been pretty pronounced, pretty quick and really gratifying,

explain. >> yes, i think most people think that because we fallen so quickly that the stock market is going to be an l shape or maybe a u. a u is something like we're stuck for 12 months before we can begin to recover and l shape is we just dive. when you look at the ten declines in more than 30%, which includes 1929 and '87, there's quite a lot of symmetry. the speed of your decline, how long it took you to fall to recover half of those losses, it's one-half the time if we fell over six weeks, it's sounds strange and impossible today. it means we could recover after of those losses within the three weeks. that would require a real impulsive buying and real lifting of clouds around disease spread or even treatment

i think that's why stocks can really rebound strong. >> as we watch the industrials there, they are softening just a bit here in recent minutes i wonder, i was listening to a conversation, a very interesting one on scott's halftime show an hour or so ago and it really goes to the question of whether when the market begins to turn back, it will be a stock pickers market or an index players market what do you think? >> i think this is going to be the renaissance for stock picking. we're already seeing it today because let's look at the index is up. it's up 6, 7%. look at the the companies that got caught in this downturn but are pretty good businesses like whether it's tempurpedic or boeing

these are up a lot more than that this is something a fundamental investor has an edge when we think about the systematic models they use futures and tendencies as they are reducing their participation in this market that's less people buying at the index level and more people sticking stocks. >> as you look back at what yourself were saying three weeks ago, six weeks ago, what kind of grade would you give yourself? >> we were totally blind sided by this decline. this problem, this pandemic not only is it a black swan but it really created tons of problems across financial markets and really helps

i think it would be kind of -- we get a d from what we can expect, we're watching fundamentals. stocks will remake with fundamentals i think investorswho have give up on stocks shouldn't be too pessimistic. >> is there an individual name that would love to buy right here and are buying. if they want to know how to navigate between october '08 and march '09, the five-month preero where the down side did decrease

to a lesser extent, if you can stay outside, you can start picking winners and losers and that may be within health care and tech if you can find the stronger companies that got caught up in the sell off >> all right thank you very much. we appreciate your type and as always your insights >> thanks. banks have been one of the hardest hit sectors in this sell off second only to energy. despite a big bounce today, financials are still down more than 25% in march on pace for their worst month since january of '09 let's bring on the mayo, mike fargo. is the worst over for the banks? >> as i said on the last time it's short term earnings hell. you're looking at weak earnings in maybe the second quarter. the economy is slowing over the next two years you might have a doubling or even a tripling in credit costs. one third lower net interest

margins. one-half decline in earnings and you have seen some issues with the plumbing of the financial markets. it's short term. it's a very tricky environment >> do you like what you're seeing in the federal reserve with specifics how it will affect the banks when you cut rate douns to the bearest of poens that hurts interest margins and there may be other things that are hurting but there may be other things that are helping >> there are bigger issues think of this as a three legged stool. one leg is the banks the banks right now, it's night and day from the financial crisis this is not a banking crisis like last time banks are not part of the problem today. banks are part of the solution

they have capital and liquidity. they're throwing the kitchen sink at the capital market the third leg would be fiscal policy and if you get this almost two trillion dollars fiscal package, you take the banks plus the fed plus the federal government action all together i think that's appropriate and that would be an incredibly strong force fight fire with fire and that doul could turn things around >> are there banks in certain sections of the country, rej regional banks that are more vulnerable than going on i'm thinking of the banks that serve the oil patch whether it's texas, oklahoma, north dakota, whatever are those banks on firm footing?

>> i said last time short term, anything goes. anything is possible over the next day, week, month. it's too hard to tell. i'm amazed at how far the bank stocks have sold off they are trading at their average level from the global financial crisis crazy. we have three out comes for the economy. we have a v shape, a u shape and an l shape that has a deep recession followed by a japan like scenario where you don't grow from years. right now the entire industry is pricing the banks as if it's going to be a recession without a recovery you really are pricing in a bad scenario having said that, we still have kept our rating on comerica. they have more exposure to the oil patch than other banks it's not one size fits all for us >> what are you faves? what are your waves?

>> take a barbell approach we have upgraded two of the highest quality names. here is your high quality name if you want to take bit more risk which i don't think it's too risky but you have citigroup which is creating at a fraction of its book value. crazy. i think there's a lot more resilient than people expect and goldman sachs trading for fraction of its book value the market treating them as if they can't get things together you know what's remarkable about goldman sachs is we estimate over 80% of their employees are working remotely talk about a plan b or plan c. they getting by with the complete revamp process, revamp staffing model and that's the

case for goldman that's the case for all the large banks. you talk about resiliency, you have it for the banks with capital. you have it with liquidity but you also have it operationally it's not going to go perfect but look at how the industry is holding strong and showing they are able to be a strength and stability for the economy in complete contrast to the financial crisis a decade ago. >> thank you as always clear and concise. we appreciate it we have breaking news out of d. dr let's get to kayla for the details. >> reporter: i've just learn frd two sources familiar with the matter that the white house earlier today convened call with major wall street and hedge fund investors to get their views on what's happening in the markets and the u.s. economy i'm told president trump, vice president mike pence and well as dan loeb, jeff sprecker and paul

jones from just capital. i'm told this discussion was less action other yenriented bue for the white house to get what's going on behind the scenes what the federal reserve could do to keep areas from seizing up the discussion talked about when the u.s. economy would be appropriate to be reopened president trump saying he understood it couldn't happen tomorrow but didn't want to keep the country shut for several months it was after that call president trump went on a town hall and pro claim he would like to have the economy be back open by april 12th he said we're opening up this incredible kun trcountry because have to do that. i would love to have it open by easter i would love to have that

happen he continues to say it's such an important day for other reasons but i'd love to make it an important day for this i would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by easter that date coincides when new york governor said the state would be an apex in cases and a time line where the is thinking wh enhe wants to open the economy up >> very interesting. kayla following it all from her backyard, i'm told way to go. we'll get the latest numbers on the coronavirus after the break. we'll be right back. yes. it's the first word of any new discovery.

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pandemic >> thanks very much. here is what's happening at this hour in italy the de toath toll is on the rise after falling for two days officials are reporting 747 new deaths since yesterday that's up from 601 on monday ita italy's prime minister has announced new fines. fines will start at $430 and go as high as $3200 mayors across italy are not mincing words when it comes to demanding people stap at home to comply with lockdown rules several furious officials mayors and governors have posted videos on social media. many using harsh language and even profanity some even suggested that people are excessively walking their dogs just to get out of the house. one of britain's largest convention centers is being repurposed into a temporary hospital the excel center will have two wards each caring for 2,000

pashtss. they are expected to open next week russian president putting on a hazmat suit to visit a hospital the chief doctor warned him to prepare for a surge in new cases. so far russia has registered 495 cases. no deaths from the outbreak. they think that may be from under testing. we'll watch those numbers for you. as always, more on the coronavirus coverage, you can head to cnbc.com ty >> thank you very much with the number of cases in the u.s. soaring to nearly 50,000, let's get an update on testing efforts as the white house weighs lessening social restrictions as easter and maybe sooner that's april 12th. welcome. it's great to see you again. >> it's good to be with you. thank you very much. >> how is testing going? i gather stanford was among the first to have developed its own kind of in house test for this >> we were

we developed so called rtpr test that when the fda announced it had opened up additional criteria for approving these tests, we were one o ever the first to submit for approval and receive approval and brought it into general clinical use immediately after. we are testing about 1,000 patients day from our delivery suspect and from delivery systems in hospital and clinics around the bay area. >> what percentage are turning out positive >> that's correct. those criteria do involve the presence of symptoms, fever, cough and other related symptoms the percentage is fluctuating. all the positive cases are being

reported to the appropriate public health authority and publications like the san francisco chronicle are giving an update every day on the number of positive cases in the bay area >> you're also involved in clinical trials of the antivirals drug. i'd like to get an update on that or on your view of any of these other drug cocktails that are being talked about as having evidence of some clinical private school validated effectiveness against the illness. >> i think it's good there's broad participation among medical centers that are taking care of patients with covid-19 infections

they're going to be a lot of different medications deployed in attempts to treat covid-19 infections i think it's very important they be done under appropriately supervised conditions so that we get information about what works, what doesn't work, what combinations may be more effective in some patients than in others. we're all playing catch up here because we hasn't experienced this particular virus in the past we don't have a lot of knowledge and information that we can bring directly to know what's best in treatment. >> i have two final quick questions. i'll ask, how stressed are your people and how over taxed, if at all, are your facilities >> i think our people are concerned. i think we're all concerned across the country

we have an maiamazing group of people working from physicians to nurse and staff i'm pleased and honored to work with each and every one of them. we're here to surerve our community and each other our facile till, we opened a wonderful new hospital in november we didn't close our tear down our add jay sent connected hospital we're able to bring bads back that we temporarily closed >> it's a great news let me close with this i used the metaphor yesterday that the economy is the patient, we have induced a coma in this patient. the debate is raging when it's safe to bring the patient out of the coma are we there yet are we close and how do you do it safely? >> we know that social distancing is currently the most effective measure we have to

slow the rate of growth in a number of case, number of patients infected with the virus. we need to keep slowing that growth rate so we can take care of people who do have the infection. it's a flulds situation. you have a lot of public health experts watching that every day in realtime. i think their recommendations will be very informative to us to know when we can start liberalizing some of the guidelines that have been put in place. >> thank you very much always great to see you. next, the push and pull of getting people back to work versus social distancing to kill the virus. >> we're going to save our great american companies both small and large. this was a medical problem we're not going to let it turn into a long lasting financial problem. >> the administration says we need to restart the economy. is there more than just money

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sektd biggest point gain ever up. the s&p 500 up 6.3%. nasdaq higher by 5.5%. russell in there well with a 6% gain the oil mark closing for the day. crude ticking higher putting it about $24 a barrel on west texas intermediate. haven't seen that kind of movement in a while. let's bring in bryan sullivan who spoke to the chevron ceo earlier today. what can you tell us >> i can tell you is when you

tend to throw, 5, 10, 7, $8 trillion at a problem, you hope to get some reaction that's the reaction the oil markets are having it's about the credit markets. part of the fed saying they will buy bonds. that's a semi bail out of oil and gas. their bonds are probably the most at risk always remember that back to chevron. as expected chevron coming out and cutting capital spending guidance maybe more than some expected taking that number from 20 down to $16 billion knocking $4 billion off what they're going to spend this year they reiterated, the ceo did that the dividend is safe. i know a lot of people aren't going the like that but they view that as key to keeping the stock where it is after dropping 40 bucks a share the ceo, i talked about geo

political events the saudi price war sparked this thing before the virus i asked him if he figured the u.s. could or the u.s. should try to get involved and mediate some kind of reconciliation. >> it is unfortunate that the oil price war has come in right on top of this global pandemic i think both of the primary players on this, saudi arabia and russia, thought this through before they began the price war. i think it was not a rash decision i think it was a considered decision i think we have to take them at their word that they intend to see this through >> he thought this was a koords nated action as well tonight, 5:00, you have bill nigren on. here in my office i'm watching this guy tyler mathison, i'm just going to tell you, he's not bad. >> you're not bad yourself good to see you. >> thank you

last night, president trump said our economy will return to business as usual sooner than many expected. >> america will again and soon be open for business, very soon. a lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting lot sooner we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself. we're not going to lets the cure be worse than the problem. >> the president doubling down on those comments moments ago saying he hopes the u.s. can reopen and be up the speed by easter that's about two and a half weeks from now stirring up debate about whether he is putting the health of the economy ahead of the health of people let's bring in stephanie miller. i've been listening a lot to governor cuoma of new york who has been a strong voice through all of this.

while one might be expect him to be highly critical of the president. they have had their tussles in the past on this he has basically said, there probably is a public health responsible way to restart the economy slowly at the same time, if i'm understanding him correctly, at the same time as cases actually worsen there may be ways to spread this needle >> both have impacts on the other. i think what needs to happen is that congress really needs to step in. the administration now more than a week ago put our economy on a large pause. that needed to come with stimulus that is not here yet. i think the white house will be out from under a bunch of

pressure to restart quote, unquote, the economy if there's a bunch of money flowing from federal government that hasn't happened yet >> ben, your thoughts here as we ponder, not just when but how to restart gradually the u.s. economy to the extent it's been shut down. obviously, it's been shut down in the dozen or so states that have put stay in place orders into effect. in other parts of the country the shutdown is less severe. >> right that's why we're going to wind up with decline in the second quarter of anywhere from 10 to 50%. it's not the entire committecon that's shut down but a good part of it. the two and a half weeks president trump is pushing for is unlikely we'll be able to do that to put the mass testing in place that's necessary so we know who is sick and can quarantine and who is not and who has developed

antibodies and go back to work the most dangerous thing we could do would be to open it up too much, too quickly, in which case the virus spreads rapidly we have seen the number of cases go up a lot. the number of deaths go up a lot. we could see that skyrocket and we have to shut it down again and take another economic hit and get another wave of virus. we have to be incredibly careful to balance the economic problem, which is huge with the health risk which is massive. that's why i think the stimulus is so important and why they will get it done today two trillion is big number >> stay where you are. we have breaking news. >> it plays right into the conversation that you are having right now with our guests. it's the topic of a call that was held between president trump, the vice president and a number of investors. the substance of that call, it

was constructive and the general idea was that the economy cannot be allowed to crash. this won't be permanent and we need what was described to me, as a thoughtful approach and a date certain approach to getting back to business the president today was discussing perhaps easter as the time frame he was looking at but it's a delicate balance of everything that has to be considered about when to try to put the economy back to work and take care of those people who are sick now and then the waves of people that are still expected in certain cities like new york city to still be falling ill and going to the hospital but that's at least what i'm told from sources was the substance of that call today between the president, the vice president and the number of the very biggest investors and corporate, business leaders in new york city.

>> not just a question of when but how. how do you do it responsibly and get the economy, the service business, the retail businesses back on their feet slowly? how do you sepds peopnd people work do you take their temperature every time they walk into the building do you require them to have been tested if they have any signs of the illness. it's the how as much as the when that would matter here in. >> absolutely. you might be asking yourself why are they holding a call with investors, big name investors to discuss this sofrt of topic because it plays in the carnage we have seen in the stock market one follows the other. you get the economy back to work and people back to work and then you can have some idea of when we can can come to an end to the tunnel on this and get the economy performing so people can start figuring out what

businesses will be doing what and when and what earnings will be down the road we have known that stooeeve is a supporter of the president he's been one of his closest financial voices others are running organizations, they are running funds. they are thinking about when the economy will get back to work. nobody wants to see the stock market go through anymore pain more than it's already been through whether it's the big investors running hedge funds or those watching us at home every day wondering when the bleeding, so to speak, will stop in the market >> i'm going to open it up to the panel here scott, stick around for a minute when you think about the history

of the stock market over the past 20 years or so and then 2008, '07 and 09, that was a bare market. we're in the third devastating bare market but the investor psychology has got to be so gun shy after all of this, right stephanie? >> do you know it's amazing, i was just reminiscing because i've been doing this through the mid-200 mid-2000s so i miss the washington advisory the first first time you said. they were asking questions about their own bots ttom line be p n they are worried about individual, small businesses and medium size.

they are worried about the economy. it even feels different. ininvestors are going to be gun shy but extremely worried about the same things that most americans are worried about. >> they are worried maybe motte this time about their businesses going out of business but the businesses they invest in going out of business. ben, let me button this up and maybe stephanie if you want to jump back in i'm going to ask a dumb question if the economy is going to be up and running at some level of capacity within three weeks time, why do we need a two trillion dollar stimulus package in. >> we don't. that's why it's ridiculous to talk about this idea we'll be back up and running in two and a half weeks i can't tell you how awful the politics are the idea that president trump is on the phone with these billionaire investors. we're losing money in the stock market and the blue collar folks to go back to work these are all people who can easily social distance themselves and work from the hamptons or anywhere else te

telling etell ing everybody else to go back to work and risk getting this virus. perhaps hundreds of thousands o of people dying. >> i don't think that was the substance, ben i think that's a little unfair i don't think these people on the call were pleading with the president and is vice president to open the economy so they would stop losing money. >> let me finish i don't think this was all to do that to stop the economy from tanking, to stop the stock market going down so they wouldn't lose money at the expense of other people forced to go back to work this was described as a conversation about a thoughtful way to try and get the economy back at the appropriate time because at some point the economy does have to reopen and get working. >> have a date it doesn't work that way >> it may not. that's an issue for the president who is the one who is

today used the date of easter weekend of april 12th. maybe it's the 13th on easter monday i'm told this was a constructive conversation thoughtfully had about when the economy can start to reopen. i think that's a fair conversation that everybody is trying to have as we think about people's well being, taking care of this health situation first and foremost but at the same time what is realistic in trying to put people back to work i don't see any reason why the people who are on the call today shouldn't have been on the call but to suggest they are making the pleas you described is unfair i don't think it's factual >> it sounds like they were suggesting that trump needs to put a date to get back to work and it's critical for the stock market to happen and these are big investors. maybe i missed construed your accounting of it i'm saying there's a reason that

hashtags like not willing to die for wall street are trending because people do not want to be forced back into their offices they want to go back to work and know they will be safe and we have handle on the virus and they don't want to go back because big investors are pressuring the white house to open the economy faster than the health experts say wulds ould b safe >> i think everybody would agree with that. the feeling i got is this wasn't that tone in any way shape or form i truly didn't i wasn't in the room i wasn't on the call at least the feeling that i got from sources was this was a constructive conversation, thoughtfully had don't forget, ben, you know as well as i do, there's a difference between public president trump and private president trump. public trump when he is giving speeches and you can hear the force in his voice last evening during the news conference in saying we're not built to be shutdown you could sense the tone and the

urgency in him wanting to get the economy back the work. there's also a different side when he's speaking to people more privately and, it was described to me as a thoughtful conversation >> you'd have to figure that the president is talking well beyond the borders of a small wall street hedge fund managers these are people who do have a deep understanding of the economy no matter whether they are fabulously wealthy or not. they are concerned about the broader effects. i'm sure about the strain to the social fabric and to society if the economy grinds to a halt or is kept artificially in that induced coma that i've been hammering on here for a long time i'm sure that the administration is talking to people in other industries whether it's the auto business or technology or medical or manufacturing of other kinds of things.

i'm sure they are having all kinds of conversations to this end. >> can't we all agree we want everybody to be safe and healthy and at the same time we want to try and figure out a responsible way in a responsible matter of time to get the economy back performing to get people back to work and it's a conversation that should be had with everybody the medical experts. business leaders what makes sense you can't snap your fingers and tell a to open its business tomorrow there are people displaced workers are in some cases, furloughed it takes a little bit of time to get people back. let's have a responsible conversation about it and i'm toll that's what this was. >> the hard thing in part as stephanie you've been amazingly polite and quiet there i don't mean to have all these big voices overwhelming you there. >> thank you

>> let me make this point. one of the concerns here or one of the disconnects here is the idea that we want to get the economy moving in a responsible way in two weeks, in three weeks. and on the other side of the ledger, we are hearing from the governor of the state of new york, the governor of california that it is precisely at that time that the medical systems in those states may have the greatest crunch of cases so you've got, you've got a really tricky needle to thread there. stephanie, the last word >> i'll take it. i think the sentiment that ben was talking about is extremely real and every time that policymakers or wall street or businesses or anyone ignores it is when we run into problems. there's a lot of people that do not trust wall street or corporations it's systemic. so the idea that folks can have these conversations and be part of strategizing how to thread

that needle without a ton of skepticism is why we don't have a stimulus so i think being really delicate here is really necessary. >> thank you spirited conversation to all scott, thanks for your reporting. ben white, stephanie merrill appreciate it. tokyo olympics officially delayed because of covid-19. there will be no 2020 in tokyo though they'll continue to call u it that. julia has what that means for media companies involved including our parent company, comcast. >> that's absolutely right the official delay of the 2020 olympics that were set to be b in tokyo will be wildly felt as the revenue boost from the olympics shifts out of this year and into next year now comcast, nbc universal, which has the domestic rights for the games and discovery, which has international rights, both have insurance to protect against losses becauut they'll out on profits as well as the

halo effect that the games have that boost other tv ratings. these giants will also miss out on the ability to use the games to promote other parts of their business for nbc, that means peacock, which was set to roll out this year and for discovery, that means its other streaming direct to consumer sports app though nbc universal have a announced a record $1.25 billio in ad commitments related to the games now saying quote, nbc universal is working with our partners to navigate this and we're exploring ways to best serve our consumers this year and boo 2021 now twitter and snap will also feel the impact of the games moving because both companies are partnered with nbc universal to feature olympics content, which would have benefitted both engagement and advertising and of course now, we're just waiting for specific details on when the games will be b delayed until. back the to you. >> thank you very much julia boorstin in california

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predicting earnings for the s&p will tank by 24% this year let's bring in john nan, chief strategist at credit swees how deep with the damage, jonathan >> well, i think what we're seeing is a second quarter gdp hit which is going to be the biggest that any of us have ever experienced and probably something that might be double the size of the hit in the worst quarter of the financial crisis. but it's also going to be or is expected to be substantially shorter with a sharper balanoun. and so there is a, you're right, we're expecting about a 24% hit to corporate profits this year, but we're also expecting next year to have a 20% bounce and

roughly speaking, both in terms of profits and market prices, we think it's going to take until 2022 to get fully back to break even >> is your confidence, how confident are you? 90%, 50% or what >> well, you know, first, this is a lot of assumptions that we have to make and i think the central one that's being made by most people is very much our view at credit swees is that over the next six, maybe eight weeks probably on the shorter side, we're going to one way or another be easing out of this process and renormalizing things and then also that probably means over the next two or three weeks having peaked and beginning to come down so if that's the case, even if the crawl out of this is slow, we're going to see that the you know, really this is a second quarter hit more than anything

else with some residual effects. the number of people who are going to be unemployed is going to reach numbers that are really uncomfortable. on the other hand, we're going to put those workers back to work faster than we probably would imagine as well. >> what if it doesn't work out that way what if the stock market doesn't regain its prior highs, not just for a period of a year or two, but maybe for a decade or more >> yeah, well, the real question here is not what the stock market does and i was listening to your last debate. the real question here is how quickly do we get our, this virus under control. and if this is something that's over the next couple of months is under control, it will recover. we wouldn't be thinkable that we wouldn't think we're going to

have a bounce and if that happen, the market is really, not that it's its own entity >> jonathan, appreciate it thanks for watching our breaking news coverage and it continues now into the last hour of the trading day as we hand it over to wilf and sara >> a a major rally for stocks today, gaining back a bit of the steep declines of late what's driving the action hopes for a massive stimulus bill nancy pelosi telling cnbc earlier there's real optimism to reach a deal soon. some hard hit areas of the market, airlines, cruises, casino, those are the biggest gainers today. but fears over the virus remain as cases