final thoughts >> i'm looking to actually trim a little bit as we get to the close, but still be way more invested than i was a week ago. >> we're not going to have time for everybody. guys, thanks so much dallas higher by 9.23. kelly evans picks up breaking news coverage right now. >> we do, scott. welcome, everybody i'm kelly evans. stocks are taking off midday with optimism jumping as the senate strikes a deal. many details still aren't known and it hasn't been approved out of the house promising news out of new york in its coronavirus the dow briefly up almost 1,000 points s&p up less than 3%, nasdaq up

2% the dow is still on track for its largest monthly percentage loss since october of 1987 let's drill down some move bob joins us now for that. hi, bob. >> the amazing thing is we haven't seen back to back gains in more than a month, but we may get it today the moves have been spectacular. we moved 100 points on the s&p 500, 1,000 on the dow. we're up close to 1,000 points on the dow if you look at the s&p 500 today, as we kept moving up late in the morning and passed the early morning highs we saw volume spikes in the etfs. there's buying interest as we passed the highs earlier in the morning. curiously the vix is higher than monday morning that was a long time ago and many points ago.

we're having trouble getting below 60 we'll keep an eye on that. as for the stars today, it's all boeing boeing was $97 on monday look at that $167 today. all the lagers are the consumers, walmart, walgreens, they're all starting to lag. guys, back to you. >> a huge move in boeing, bob. thank you. it was a late night on capitol hill as the white house and senators reached a deal on the $1 trillion relief deal. the question is what is in the bill and how soon can we expect passage by the house kayla joins us we thought we would have the full text before the market opened. >> reporter: some people have it, kelly. a copy was circulated among law

ma makers before senators held calls with treasury secretary steven mnuchin i obtained a copy of the text. it's been confirmed by a senior administration that it's accurate unemployment benefits are ex pandem expanded payroll taxes can be deferred until 2021 there will be $500 billion in corporate aid with strings attached requirements on compensation and returning money to share holders. no dividends while a loan is outstanding and no buybacks for those companies for another year after the loan is paid off small businesses have accesses to a $350 billion loan program to cover payroll and rent. senator majority leader mitch mcconnell said that small

business relief is part of the hallmark of this package. >> this is not even a stimulus package. it is emergency relief, emergency relief that's what this is. no, this fight is not going to be won or lost in washington it's the american people who will beat this virus >> reporter: now as for when the deal will be voted on mcdonnell and chuck schumer are expected to have a consultation later today to figure out when the vote will take place the house has left today so at this time not expected that speaker pelosi would bring this to the floor until tomorrow. >> we had chuck schumer say the bill has been improved enough to warrant its passage. kayla, by this time tomorrow is this done and passed

>> reporter: we'll see i know there are some complications over how exactly a house vote would work. you have 435 members and of course no one really wants to congregate right now there's discussion over whether this vote would be held by voice, whether they would have ten members voting at one time to keep people from congregating on the house floor some details are still being worked out until they are, hard to say when the timing will be. >> kayla, thanks let's dive deeper into the bill and if this is the outcome that the country and market needed. joining me is chris krueger. chris, your first thoughts on the bill >> it's unprecedented in size and scope. it's a question of when, not if it passes. it could pass the senate before the market closes today. the house likely tomorrow via unanimous consent which means

they don't have to come back to washington in the middle of a pandemic i would flag this is the third covid-19 related piece of legislation that the congress has passed in 20 days. it's ununprecedented. >> have you seen the text of the bill >> no. no one has seen the final text of the bill. it's probably going to be around 1,000 pages. overall sticker price is probably close to $2 trillion. what's important to note is with the federal reserve leverage on that $500 billion treasury exchange stabilization fund you're talking closer to $7 trillion ballpark. >> is it fair to say there's not just the $350 billion in direct assistance for small businesses, but that the aid for main street through that federal reserve

leveraged fund could be running in the trillions of dollars? >> absolutely. look, we sort of think it of like there are six key areas the first one is in the neighborhood of $500 million in cash payments to individuals number two, $350 billion in loans to small businesses. number three a social safety net enhancement. there's that $500 billion loan facility at the treasury you'll back stop whatever the fed does, essentially give them a blank track. number six, this gigantic medical surge which schumer called the marshal plan for hospitals. it's unprecedented there's never been a bill this size. >> we're starting to get more detail on the wires about small pieces of it, like a commodity credit spending authority, $14 billion worth. any details that could derail this, chris?

>> there are always black swan type things. it's a question of when, not if. law makers are eager to pass this and likely recess until late april i would note there's already talk of a phase four stimulus package depending on the state of the economy, items that don't make the cut in phase three will get another look on phase four whether it's a payroll tax, infrastructure or other social safety net enhancements. >> the payroll tax, it's not a tax cut. it's a delay really. it requires those who take it to pay it back over a period of years. is that appropriate and will it have a big effect? it won't as if it had no strings attached how important is it that there are some funds coming back out of the bills >> i mean, for phase four and maybe even a phase five,

everything is going to be on the table depending on the economy one thing that hasn't got a ton of attention, which the administrationbelieves will free up about $300 billion short term is that tax filings have been delayed for ninety days another huge item. so many things have been happening each day that, when you take a step back and look at the totality of everything that's happened in the last 20 days, it's unprecedented >> is there anything -- again, one of the details here suggests that the bill would replenish a funding pool used to aid farmers because of the u.s./china strtr issues other commentators said this is stuffed with pork and way too much in it that's not related to the economy. will it prove true in the end and risk a backlash?

>> perhaps i mean, what is not an affected injury sector or individual from this pandemic? senator mcconnell said it's not a stimulus it's emergency relief. everybody is hurting there's something really for literally everybody in this. you brought up u.s./china. in terms of unilateral options, the only big one would be tariff relief on both steel and aluminum tariffs as well as the 301 tariffs on china thus far the administration said no chance. that's arguably the biggest unilateral option the administration has. >> one final question. any idea how quickly businesses can get access to the funding? >> in theory, again in theory,

this has been described as a concept. if the business has a pre-existing relationship with a bank or once these facilities go live, you deal with that banker. no real underwriting requirement. all of these loans or grants are 100% government guaranteed in theory it should go quickly, although a lot of details in this as we know as with most things, particularly washington policy the devil is always in the details and we still don't have the bill. >> chris, thanks very much >> thanks kelly. news in the bond market five year treasuries up for option. rick santelli has the details how is demand? >> i give demand a c plus. this was one strange auction 41 billion of five-year notes.

the one issue mark was trading.55 the yield was .535 it priced aggressively good which gives us most of the c plus the only other good thing was bid to cover at 2.53 that was the best since july of 2018 12.6 directs was light 35.3% going to the dealers' pockets. that's the heaviest amount in their pockets since december of '18. you can see what's happening priced aggressive. bid to cover was good. the complexion of coverers is changing then the process with what's going on with the fed or treasury we give it ac plus we'll have to see how the seven year goes.

kelly? >> we have the moody market trading better is the better tone in treasury as a result of all that? >> of course it's a better tone. we're throwing everything times ten at it. listen, we can talk about deficits later i don't like deficits. if you're looking for liquidity, hard to argue markets are going to get better because they're drowning in liquidity. >> rick, thank you very much back to stocks they're trying to post their first back to back gain since february the dow is up more than 1,000 points this morning former fed chair weighed in on the impact coronavirus will have on the economy. >> it's going to be a very short -- i hope short recession in the next quarter or two because everything is shutting down of course you know, the gdp figures are calculated only an annual basis. if activity is 10% lower this quarter than last quarter,

multiply that by four and there's a 40% rate of decline. you'll see some scary numbers. unemployment is going to go up. >> jobless claims tomorrow will be scary here with reaction of that interview jason brady. jason, i saw you nodding in agreement there regarding the headlines on claims tomorrow does this market rebound to you suggest something more lasting is taking place in terms of a recovery here? >> look, i think rick santelli was right as far as the liquidity being provided to the markets. what we saw before this rally started was a lot of liquidations certainly in fixed incomes, a lot of deleveraging from the worst week in '08 equity outcomes have been two

times worse. fixed income rates have been 18 times worse. we're all looking to see how long this is going to go claims will be an interesting data point tomorrow. maybe 1% additional unemployment in one week. it's all very quick. >> the fact we've been speculating how high in the millions it goes, hopefully means the worse case scenario priced in. still not great. you mentioned some of the moves in stock we've seen. some have been calling this a bear market bounce would you agree with that situation? what does that tell you? >> the worst hit have been the strongest to recover if you look at factors within the equity markets, the kinds of things out performing are leverage and low equality. i'm still seeing liquidations

and things like mortgage rates the agency market is better from the fed. there's still a lot of clogging in the plumbing that the fed and others are trying to fix it's still a bit messy to me it's too early to call it. >> jeff, let me bring you in you remained constructive on these markets and seen value in many different sectors industrials are one of the strongest parts of the market on the back of the relief bill. are there places you would still be chasing here? >> well, when you say chasing, there will be places we would be taking advantage of. while we have remained constructive, kelly, i would agree with the other guest that we don't have the all clear signal our timeframe is longer than is this just the bottom we could have a retest after we got through this great news with regard to the package. i think yesterday the market was

up because there was a slow in coronavirus in the asian area and progress made there. while the technicals within stock land have looked pretty good the last couple days, it's been refreshing to see high beta out perform low beta and see small caps do well we saw sectors that are attractive it's too early to say buy on the dips, this is all done, it's nothing but up from here after we had this euphoria from the policy announcement that seems to be in play. we'll still meet the second quarter rough patch. it's one thing to see it coming. it's another thing to read it in the papers every day and the coronavirus news, are we really bending the curve that will be really important. we're upgrading and holding our ground. >> jeff, one anecdotal thing

you often have warren buffet coming in and buying something when everyone else thinks he's crazy. we haven't seen that yet does that lack of a big splashy announcement from berkshire tell you something? >> i'm not going to key on one buyer. warren buffet has been buying financials and owning some airline stocks we all have good points and weak points we look for continued strong leadership in some of the most beaten up names to really move to see a fewer number of stocks sitting at 52-week lows. that's beginning to happen we still need to see more of that. >> jason, confirmation of that what would you like to see more of >> look, i think at this point there are lots of opportunities

out there. you know, i think we're seeing a margin in safety and certain prices that gives you some faith that you'll get the hay back over a long period of time high yield, we're at 1,100 when you go through 900, 25 times that's happened. your one year return, 25 times it's been positive and averages over 30% for an all clear cigsignal, i kp watching the news like everybody else don't just buy the bottom. try to find value. there's value out there for sure. >> well said thanks, guys we appreciate it, jason and jeff as you just heard the housing sector is getting a lot of attention as one part of the market is seeing cracks and the other could be turned upside down mortgage rates are getting a lot of attention

some have lost 90% of their value. immediate concerted action must be taken to fend off this crisis and avoid the need for a tax-payer funded bail out of real estate market and the banks. let me bring in dom and diana. dom, we'll begin with you. >> tom berrick's warning is about mortgage rates i want to call your attention to the invesco mortgage and the new york mortgage trust. both of those have lost around 80% of their value that's because they're bouncing today off distressed levels. they're distressed because these don't invest in real estate properties they invest in mortgage bonds.

when mortgage bonds, commercial mortgage bonds, residential ones, start to lose value these funds buy them on margin they borrow money to buy them. when the assets go down, margin calls happen can they meet the margin calls or do they have to sell? if they sell, it pushes rates lower. that's why tom was concerned about this to put it differently, there are large mortgage real estate investment trusts out there that have held up better. i would note this, kelly, for agnc it held up well because it invests primarily in government-backed mortgages. that's something to watch. >> dom, when tom warns about the banks, is there a risk there or should these concerns be concentrated in this asset class? >> there is because of the whole financing structure, right

all of these banks provide ale estate financing if the whole system feels stress -- remember, a lot of stress is also on the invest ors many of whom are older americans looking towards retirement income when you can't find that income with ultra low interest rates, a lot of folks tend to buy these as part of a portfolio to augment income returns that's something to watch as well boomers, aging americans are being hard hit as well. >> great point dom, thank you let's turn to diana now. how could the fed affect the real estate market, diana? >> like dom was talking about in commercial real estate now the federal reserve is pumping billions into the residential

mortgage industry and that's helping. it helped turn around the spike in mortgage rates. the 30-year rate is finally dropping back. that spice tanked applications that might be a relief for lenders who were trying to handle the boom earlier this month. it's the servicers who collect your payments who are facing a problem. fanny mae has announced a forebearance program the mortgage bankers association asked the fed and treasury to give them some kind of liquidity line to pay veinvestors. >> they're saying i'm still owed cash flow and they have to come up with some other way. >> absolutely. servicers are contracted to pay the investors. if you're not paying your

mortgage, then they don't have that money in normal circumstances they have enough reserve to do that when we're looking at this spike in delinquencies in the next couple months, that's going to be a lot for servicers to handle >> diana, thanks coming up we're focusing on the coronavirus and relief effort. stores, governments and hospitals don't have enough hand sanitizers to meet demand. plus, from credit down grades, to portfolio companies teetheri teetheri teethering, it's been a rough ride all of that right after this got it.

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welcome back here's a look at the markets the dow up just under 1,100 points the s&p up under 4%. they're both looking to place back to back gains take a look at shares of boeing soaring again today. it's up 75% this week now trading at 1$167 a share this after the stock was raised

to neutral meantime focusing on hand sanitizer in short supply, more and morley core companies are stepping up to help out. frank holland joins me now. >> reporter: bacardi announcing it will produce 100 million litters of hand sanitizer. bacardi joins other distill er and brewers like bud wiser and jack daniels to produce sanitizer. joining me now is the ceo of bacardi. thanks for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> you upped your commitment to make hand sanitizer. will it impact your ability to make rum and other spirits >> we are making 260,000 gallons in eight locations

it's our way to step up and support particularly the health workers who are facing a crisis at this current point in time. we are particularly very grateful for all production team which has really stepped up at this point in time to keep the factories going. it's only a portion of our production that we're putting towards the sanitizers our normal production continues as we step it up for future demand. >> i'm sure bacardi drinkers are happy to hear that so many bars and restaurants have been closed does this change your out look for your business and the spirit industry >> the way our business is globally, it's nearly 75% of total sales, which you would call your local grocery, liquor

stores 25% comes from bars and restaurants. what we're seeing the entree, which is the bars and restaurants closed down, we're seeing a big pull in the off trade and particularly in the u.s. off recent places like kroger and walmart where we're seeing huge spikes in sales. for wine and beer, also. the entree is pretty much shut down and so what we are seeing is that, you know, it's evening out at the current juncture. in the long run we certainly see it impacting our business. entree is brands where you really interact with people going there for the experience we see a little pain in the short term in the long term we see business

coming back. for the timing -- sorry. >> again, thank you for joining us it's kelly here. i wanted to ask if you could explain how this works to turn a production line for booze into a production line for hand sanitizer. what inputs do you need? what do you do if you have excess of the supplies that go into it that another manufacturer would like? >> one of the components, kelly, goes into making sanitizer is high strength alcohol. that's your initial ingredient from which comes your product. some of it goes into aging and battles. we're taking the alcohol and providing it to the manufacturers that make sanitizers so they have the ability to provide it to the local communities and people who need it the most what we're doing is putting a portion of the production into hand sanitizers.

>> can you talk about how the global spirit market has changed due to coronavirus, but also the emergence of hard seltzers >> we see a lot of business on ecommerce. grizzly has seen a huge increase during this period from what i'm given to understand march has been one of their highest sales ever on that particular site. we're seeing a lot more people buying liquor through ecommerce, having delivery at home. we're also seeing the ability for you to have things like cocktails delivered at home through sites like cocktail

couri courier. if you want to have aeight margaritas with dinner, they're dpli delivering it to your door step. now with cannibis, we're seeing where cannibis is available, you're seeing a drop down in wine and beer. it hasn't addressed spirits at this stage in terms of seltzers, people are looking for low alcohol and health benefits. zero sugar, zero carbs coming from spirit brands that's a trend you're going to see more and more of we have some initiatives such as having launched recently some zero alcohol products. you'll see a lot more of that as

time goes by. >> all right, very good. we really appreciate you joining us bacardi turning some of its production lines into facilities that can produce hand sanitizer. we're going to talk about hospitals strained when it comes to these products. what is going where and what's lacking. wall street getting bullish on candy, fries and cheese a look at the shares of cruise operators soaring for a second day norwegian is up 90% this week. that's quite a two-day move. the dow is up nearly 1,100 points we're back in two. but our comprehensive approach to financial planning can help make sure you're prepared for what's expected and even what's not. and that kind of financial confidence can help you sleep better at night.

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welcome back nearly a third of the world's population is under move restrictions london's city airport suspended all commercial and private flights. let's get to sue. >> reporter: we have new numb numbers. the worldwide death toll has topped 20,000. italy is reporting a small drop.

they reported 5,000 new cases taking its total above 74,000. here at home attorneys general are calling for a crack down on price goujing. they sent a letter to amazon, ebay, facebook, walmart and craig's list telling them a patriotic duty to help their fellow citizens. in new jersey residents have been evacuated from an assisted living facility. there has been one death, 24 tested positive. it is one of the first group homes to be evacuated because of the virus. for more coronavirus information, you can head to cnbc.com >> sue, any chance those nursing home folks would go into private homes? do they come up with another

facility >> they came up with another facility about 15 to 20 miles away they don't want to put them in local hospitals because that hospital is also a testing site. it's very crowded. as a result they'll put them in an assisted living facility that has been sanitize and wait and see if those 70 presumed positive test positive it's one of the first across the country to be evacuated. we're watching very closely. >> sue, thanks. hospital across the country are waiting for a surge in coronavirus patients meg is here with the latest on that front. >> reporter: we've been hearing stories of the shortest of equipment and supply chain company premier has put some numbers on it for us

they say a survey shows 60% of u.s. hospitals say they can't handle an influx of covid-19 patients because of the product shortages. 97% say they're conserving personal productive equipment. they don't have enough masks, surgical guards, face shields. the respirator masks are the top concern. 22% of hospitals say they burn through more than 100 masks a day. the number two concern is the supply of hand sanitizer we were just hearing about that. 64% of hospitals who responded here say they have a shortage. ventilators are of major concern. 20% saying they need more immediately. joining us now to discuss this survey and the situation in the u.s. is premier ceo.

thank you so much for being here and providing this big picture of what's going on help us understand is the issue that there's not enough of these supplies anywhere or that we can't get them to the right places right now >> thanks, you shared a lot of the survey results this pandemic is virtually in every country. all of us are having the challenges of getting enough capacity to serve the patients as they show themselves. because premier is the supply chain partner for thousands of providers, it's our job to be figuring out how much supply they have on hand, how much they're using per day, where the cases are coming from. we're following the cdc mapping so we know where the cases are emerging and concentrating our job is to get the supplies to the right place at the right time. >> reporter: tell us about if

you can the distribution of the survey results are the problems mainly concentrated in the hot spot areas like new york, seattle, california or are hospitals across the country concerned about this and facing these shortages >> hospitals across the country are concerned about it we surveyed and got responses from 1,000 hospitals representing lots of markets clearly the new york market is in crisis as is washington state, california. there are new emerging markets in atlanta, new orleans and other places where the case load is starting to increase. in many of these markets we're talking about cases doubling every two, three or four days. from a premier perspective what we're trying to do in collaboration with fema and hhs and with manufacturers and distributors is really figure out where the demand is, where it's growing fastest and how do we get those critical supplies like n95 masks, surgical gowns,

the hand sanitizers, ventilators, there are hundreds of supplies that are critical in combatting this disease. >> reporter: how much can some of these creative solutions we're hearing about, alcohol companies making hand sanitizers, auto makers making ventilators and clothing companies making masks how quickly could that help? >> premier is gets lots and lots of inbound calls and conversations and various manufacturers taking on making some of those products we are pushing the specifications to those manufacturers. we've got to make sure these products end up being clinically effective and there's a lot of gray market, black market and a lot of price goujing we're trying to be a

clearinghouse so we can help our health systems and help the market really understand if they're going to get quality products that will be useful and do it in a fair way. i would say of all the inbounds we're getting, maybe 10% of them legitimately can turn themselves into a solution, 90% of them may not be real, may have criminal elements so we're advising our health systems to be very careful about how they do that the most important thing health systems can do, though, is follow all the conservation protocols. you saw in our survey that 97% of them are following those protocols which allow them to extend the supplies for a longer period of time >> reporter: susan, thank you so much for joining us. important stuff you're telling us and some disturbing things with the criminal element.

thanks again >> thank you >> meg, i saw that canada goose is going to try to repurpose production into making robes companies are trying to pitch in. >> reporter: you got to hope they can do it quickly. >> that's right. meg, thanks very much. we're going to take a quick break. before the coronavirus created the market, the empire was reeling. a live report on that after the break. as we go, take a look at markets which are at fresh session highs. the dow more than 1,200 points that's a 6% gain a quick look at credit card companies. discover financial is on pace 'rba itwerst week ev wee ckn o. ♪

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some bullish sentiment on wall street piper sandaler updates hershey to over the fundamentals are still intact piper said the company could see a benefit from easter. hershey shares up nearly 5%. jpmorgan upgrading heinz this has been a tough stock. jpmorgan adds the company will be a beneficiary of consumers eating at home stevens getting bullish on mcdonald's saying the fast food giant has the ability to weather this storm. also calls it a good recession play from selling billions in assets

to a credit downgrade reports of talks to take the company private soft bank has faced no shortages of challenges. what do we know? >> reporter: kelly, the empire is in trouble. you listed a few of the challenges concerns are rising about its massive pile in debt that's coming through a credit downgrade. pressure from activistins and investors. they're gearing up for a global down turn. the business model will be challenged in a recession. that is relying on short term rent to fulfill longer term leases uber has seen rides fall off a cliff amid the outbreak. they're against the ropes. you have to act to shore up the balance sheet, to strengthen soft bank's balance sheet. here's what he's doing he's raising money

it's likely to come at the cost of grander ambitions to be the warren buffet of technology. take his alibaba stake he resisted the idea of selling part of it now as the selling parts of it, but now the group is pledging to raise $40 billion through asset sales, masa son is on the table that does seem to have attracted investors. shares of softbank were up 12% overnight. but in the long-term, where does that leave masa son and his 300-year vision. before the latest events, softbank was having trouble raising money for a second vision fund so he can continue to invest in start-ups >> it's such a unique hit, the fact that he has unique exposure to co-working and ridesharing during a pandemic. it's just the least ideal portfolio that you could have. you could say, well, uber and lyft will bounce back once people get more confidence

but could something like wework get less attractive permanently here, or maybe more so people go, maybe i can do some sort of work share and not go into the office as much. >> absolutely. wework is certainly a concerning point, particularly if we see a recession and you see a lot of start-ups and individuals not take office space, which you're already seeing by the way, wework, many of its locations are still operating, but at the end of the day, masa son does have an out he has that alibaba stake, which is worth about $120 billion. that is more than the market cap of softbank itself the concerns, here, though, is what does that do for the long run. masa son and softbank have long relied on that alibaba stake to shore up its balance sheet, to show good earnings, quarter after quarter. and what some of the credit agencies are flagging is, what happens when they say that they're trying to liquidate assets and the current market volatility are they really going to get the best price for their alibaba shares or sprint shares after the merger with t-mobile

that's the big concern here. >> no, it's fascinating to see how it will play out deirdre, we appreciate it. thanks deirdre bosa on alibaba and softbank a programming note tune in tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern for a cnbc town hall "the pandemic and the path forward. it will feature gary cohn, scott gottlieb, mark cuban and more. send your questions to hashtag cnbc path forward and they'll be sure to ask as many of them as possible in the meantime, short-term treasury yields are dropping in response to interest from investors. ben bernanke weighed in this morning with why he thinks bonds may play a bigger role listen >> at the moment, there's a big demand for treasuryies. of course, they're paying very low interest rates there's been some dislocation in the market for treasuries, probably due to dlenchi indelevd other factors. the fed is buying markets in order to stabilize that treasury market but i think the treasury market will remain the most important

financial market in the world. i think there's a big global demand for treasuries, even if there's some temporary glitches. >> today we've got negative yields this as the dow is up 6%, more than 1,200 points right now, but one month and three-month treasury bills have a negative sign in front of them. for more on this i'm joined by jim carron with morgan stanley any thoughts >> i think it's a supply and demand imbalance right now the front end of the market has been extremely stressed, so there has been a demand for short-term collateral. and we have to think about the markets in terms of leverage and also funding and fungibility of assets there's probably nothing more liquid than a short-term treasury bill. and in markets like this, where you need liquidity, because that's what has been stressed, it's getting better, but that is what has been stressed that there's going to be a lot of demand for the short data paper. >> is there going to be enough

demand for all treasury paper going forward, now that we're talking about running a 15 to 20% deficit and having to do a ton of new issuance? >> so that's a really important issue. and i think what ben bernanke was referring to as he was discussing this is that, look, you know, the first thing that starts to break wherever you move into a crisis is the liquidity conditions in the market and we go through a period of illiquidity. and the fed has done a lot so far to address that. they fixed the repo market in many ways, they've increased li liquidity for treasuries through quantitative easing. today's a great example. so i think that the monetary policy transmission mechanism to keep yields low as a stimulus is a good thing right now but in terms of demand, down the road, with fiscal deficits that are going to be rising and certainly rising aggressively after all the stimulus that gets passed through, that's a good question i would argue that for the time being, it is -- the treasuries will stay in good demand

maybe a year down the road or two years down the road, there might be a -- you know, it might be a different story but this is a relative game. we can look at where other bond yields are trading around the world, as well >> so jim, do you think the most likely outcome if we fast forward a year or two, is that we have more negative yields on u.s. treasuries or much higher yields, because people have this concern about supply deficits, maybe even inflation and some kind of recovery >> so, i don't think we have negative yields. i feel very confident to say that because this is really just a liquidity and collateral demand issue. this is the technical. in terms of, if we get the kind of recovery that a lot of people are talking about, which is more of a gradual u-shaped recovery, and we return to some normalcy a year to 18 months down the road, i still think the fed funds rate is going to be at zero i think they're going to be at zero until the end of 2021 this may, with all the stimulus

that's in the system, what we have to recognize is that the stimulus that comes into the system has a degree of permanence it's going to stay here for a while, even as things improve. we're going to restore the inflation risk premium, at least that's what the fed is trying to do i would argue that them-year treasury yields stay, you know, around these levels to maybe slightly higher in yield and the yield curve stays reasonably steep and i think that's part of the goal for the fed you know, a zero ten-year yield dmo does no good for anybody you have to have some yield in the market and some slope to the curve. and that will certainly help the financial system and i think that's going to be part of the plan and i think that inflation risk premium will start to rise, but this is -- we're talking two years wouts o out, not anytime soon. >> what sticks in my mind is the permanent stimulus you just referenced that's food for thought. jim, thank you so much >> thank you >> jum c >> jim caron, thank you. all of the airlines are soaring

right now. the new stimulus bill from the senate will provide $25 billion of direct financial aid, $4 billion for air cargo carriers these are industries which have taken a big hit by coronavirus jetblue, spirit, you can see, up 28% today. and that does it for the hour of our breaking news coverage tyler mathisen picks it up at the top of the the hour with the latest from washington on the details of this multi-t trillion-dollar recovery package and a deep dive into the food chain, the restaurant crash, and how e thnation's cattlemen are dealing with this pandemic

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good afternoon, everyone, and welcome. our breaking coverage of the market and the global pandemic continues. i'm tyler mathisen the dow now up more than 1,100 points, as you see right there biggest gain yesterday since 1931, now on track for its first back-to-back gain since february 6th, as congress makes a deal, apparently to pass phase iii of the stimulus package and governor cuomo says the infection rate is slowing just a bit in new york state. and take a look at the big winner today, up more than 30% that would be boeing, announcing it will