>> know if you are a short-term trader or a learning investor and stay in your lane, because staying in your lane, you will make money >> even in your tractor, you stay in your lane. >> last to you, joe? >> best day in investment grades home depot, target, nvidia all offering debt. >> thanks for watching kelly, over to you >> scott, thank you very much. and hi, everybody. our special coverage continues here on cnbc today is day three of the dow's winning streak and it's now on pace for its best week since 1933 but what a difference a week makes. this time last week, the dow was headed for its worst month since the 1930s, as well it all goes back to the global battle with coronavirus. the u.s. job losses this morning were just as brutal as expected. we're still waiting for congress to pass the massive relief package. and today, more big companies are dropping big news about job cuts and cash shortages. so what's an investor to do? we'll try to help you nafrvigate it all and we begin this hour with this big rally and bob pisani has

more on that hey, bob >> and it's rather remarkable, where we have come here. first off, the jobless claims were worse than expected, but the market moved up on those numbers. that indicates that the whisper number was much higher and, in fact, on the whisper number, the actual number we reported was better than feared we were 2190 on monday morning at the low it's hard to believe we're almost 2,600 on the s&p 500. we're talking about gains of almost 18% on an intraday basis for the week 10-1, advancing to declining stocks today 90% of the volume on the upside again. this is a third 90% upside day that we've had recently. that's certainly a sign that at least some people are buying at this point sectors, broad rally it's not banks just rallying or industrials. but if you take a look, you'll see health care up, technology has been up, generally that's the sign of a really broad rally. in terms of individual movers, again, look at boeing. boeing was monday, $97 and now you're looking at it, at

this big moouve up here that's not a typo for boeing massive moves on the upside for boeing chevron is also up nicely. united express, united technologies, and kurcuriously, maybe not curiously, but all of the consumer names have been weaker they were generally outperformers, not down as much in the prior week. we're definitely going towards a little bit of what we used to call mean reversion at this point. big, powerful rally still near the highs for the day. >> and broad-based, too, just like you said. bob, thank you so much bob pisani well, 3.3 million people applied for unemployment benefits last week, nearly a five-fold jump from the prior record in 1992 you can see what it looks like in the chart behind me and in an extremely rare move, the fed chair jay powell did a live one-on-one interview this morning on the "today" show. let's get to steve liesman who joins us now >> a very ugly jobless claims report, and no way to sugarcoat it, because it does speak of

worse yet to come. that number, as you said, was about five times the worst recent record, which was back, 695,000, back in 1982. and in fact, even during the financial crisis, you can see there, on the right-hand side of your screen, the worst one-week gain in jobless claims we'll see what happens to continuing claims. that's every time they add for a week, it goes on top and accumulates until it reaches some form of a peak. well, what kind of a peak? oxford economics writes, we foresee 15 to 20 million job losses in the coming weeks with the unemployment rate likely surging above 10% in april naroff advisers says the unemployment rate is likely to go into the double digits. both economists wrote that after the stimulus bill or the details were known so they obviously think that whatever is in the stimulus bill, it won't do very much to keep those numbers from getting -- well, maybe they would be worse without the stimulus bill. fed chair jay powell talking on the "today" show says that we're already in a recession, but the

fed is not out of ammunition, and the fed can lend any place where credit is not flowing. and then, here's what he said about the outlook. >> you may well see, you know, significant rises in unemployment, significant declines in economic activity. but, there can also be a good rebound on the other side of that and that's actually one of the main things we're trying to do, by assuring the flow of credit in the economy and keeping rates low, is to assure that that rebound, when it does come, is as vigorous as possible. >> hey, kelly, i just got a new statement here for the new york fed, where they said they're going to buy agency mortgage-backed securities, quote, in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning. and they directed the desk -- this is the fmoc telling the desk at the new york fed to include purchases of agency commercial mortgage-backed securities in such purchases so we knew they were going to buy these things i guess we didn't have the instruction of, in the amounts

needed to support market functioning. so, again, they're in a no-limit situation here, kelly. >> right and the numbers are just going to get huger what did you think, steve, was the significance of powell going on the "today" show, which no fed chair has ever done. >> so, i think the fed took a lot of heat and got a lot of criticism back in '08, '09 it was maybe because of the particularly particularities of the crisis that we faced back then. but the criticism, as you remember, was too much helping of the financial system, too much assistance for the wealthy, nothing for regular people and i think the fed chairman feels this need and the fed as an institution feels a need to explain itself that it is going to be a doing a variety of things to help main street, to help average workers, and in fact, what it does do is help average workers in making the credit in the financial system work >> steve, we appreciate it, good to see you steve liesman with the latest there. so how should investors digest a fed chair on a network morning show and today's record-break jobless

claims joining me is michelle meyers. and peter boockvar is chief investment officer and a cnbc contributor. michelle, good to see you. i am curious w, i mean, the jobless claims figures was on the worse side of what we were looking for, 15 to $20 million more in the coming weeks you know, is there -- it's kind of baked in at this point, isn't it >> well, you know, i think we're all still reacting to the high frequency economic data. this is unprecedented times. we've never seen a shock this acute. it's effectively like a level shift down in the economy. and it's all happening at once so today's jobless claims numbers, i think it's just the first of many indicators that we're going to see, that helps us to quantify how big of a hit this is to the economy if we stay on this pace, you can see job loss -- you know, nonforeign payroll numbers between 4 and 6 million lost in april, if not higher so it's an extremely big hit

it's all happening at once and if you compared it to prior cycles, think about today versus 2008 2008 was the great recession it was extremely painful but it felt like a more-normal shock that was multiplying through the economy over a matter of months and quarters. this is all happening suddenly >> and michelle, there are people who say the fed needs to set kind of a gdp target and explain to the public that once you're down 10 or 15 or 20%, it's not enough to go back to 3% you know, you're down too far. you have to make up kind of that entire gap that you've lost. but that's a tricky thing to communicate for them or is it or could they do something like that >> it's a very tricky thing to communicate. but i do think it's an important one to be able to know that they're trying to fill the hole. so, again, when you think about gdp and you think about what's happened, i like to think about it as a level shift. the economy was running at a certain pace and then you have this acute crisis and we shifted

lower. in order to get out of that big hole that has now been developed and will continue to develop over the next few months, you need to see some pretty fast acceleration and our view is that it will end up taking some time. so from a gdp perspective or a policy perspective, maybe targeting a level of gdp would be reasonable. i mean, i don't think the fed is going to actually go there i think that's a hard thing for them to do in terms of being able to put a quantitative target instead, what they've told markets and what they've -- what jay powell told today the public is that they are going to be the lender and the buyer of last resort and they are going to do everything in their power to get credit to flow in the real economy, and of course, in the financial markets. >> absolutely. peter, i'm going to come to you. we have some news that i want to get your reaction to it's the seven-year bond auction that just took place rick santelli joins us with those results. ruch >> kelly, i'm shocked. i'm really shocked now, all of us would suspect that these auctions aren't going to be terrific, because the markets are kind of wild and,

yes, treasury liquidties improved dramatically, deals are coming through, but this is a great auction. i gave ate b plus. let's go through it. 32 billion seven-year notes. when you look at 2s, 5s, 7s, 7 might be the one you think, that might be the roughest one, it's not the best issue, but does correlate very closely to the average maturity of a mortgage 0.68 is the yield of the dutch auction. it was like 70, 71, 70 2.76 bid to cover. the best since thanksgiving to have 2012, 62.4 above average for indirect the only fly in the ointment, 9.1 direct so i gave it a b plus. 113 billion in supply is now in the rearview mirror. and we see ten-year note yields, especially, are in the zone. where almost every session grabs right around that 80 basis points, so that is kind of the high-frequency trade to pay most attention to kelly, back to you

>> rick, thanks. and peter boockvar, i'll turn to you for some reaction to that. does it suggest that wedon't have to be overly concerned about the megasupply coming into the treasury market? >> i still think that remains to be seen, because in order to come up with the $2 trillion that's going to be spent over the next couple of months, they're going to have to raise it and mnuchimnuchin, i think, a f weeks ago, hinted at the possibility of issuing some extra-long maturities in order to finance it. but that's really going to be the question, is finding the amount of buyers that are needed to raise that essentially $2 trillion and interestingly, they've gotten the benefit, of course, from this big drop in interest rates. today's seven-year yield auction at 0.68. it's about half the level that they sold paper a month ago. >> wow, just a month ago but again, look at everything that's happened. peter, should they target the sort of households this 50 or 100-year bond that's sometimes

speculated about, as a way to avoid having to massively decrease the deficit >> i think if they can find enough buyers at those maturities, then, absolutely the problem is finding that many buyers i think that they've surveyed the landscape of what kind of demand would be add at 50 years or 100 years and it's just not that much. i think they're going to have to maybe focus more on the 30-year. but even that would be a benefit. that would help at least manage the liquidity needs that the government needs right now and at least push out our average maturities at the same time >> and peter, finally, what are your thoughts on the market action that we've seen here, now that we expect tomorrow, i guess, to have this relief bill passed into law. secretary mnuchin this morning said it would be three weeks until those checks are in people's bank accounts, the ones that they have direct deposit information for. you know, what do you make of that >> i think the market has reached a bottom i think all of the bad news

we're going to hear about the virus over the next four to six weeks, all the terrible economic data we're going to see over the next few months, that has been priced in. the next question for the market is, is what happens after? what happens when we get to the fall and the economy starts to recover? is it a "v" bottom recovery, or something that's going to take a lot more time. unfortunately, i'm in the latter camp i think this has been a traumatic experience on the household level and the business level, and that it's going to be a long tooum before we ctime ben really be comfortable with the rate of growth and that's when the stock market will have to decide, okay, this reduced rate of earnings per share, i'm not putting an 18 to 20 times multiple that i did in the early part of the year it's going to be a lower multiple and that's what we're going to have to decide whether we're going to need, you know, further declines in order to reset >> yeah. michelle, i'll give you the final word on that what are your gdp predictions at this point >> sure. so we think q2 is going to be very, very weak, double-digit

down forecasts right now for 12% decline in q2 on an annualized basis for gdp. the risks are it will end up being more severe than that. and we would agree with peter in that i do think the economy will return to modestly positive growth in the third quarter, but i think it's going to be really slow so our current forecasts, we don't have a full recovery, we don't have us making up the hole that was created until some point the middle of 2021 you know, part of that speed, i think, will depend on the policy impulse. so how effective is this policy? will we see more i suspect we will. i don't think this is it the $2 trillion is substantial, it's about 9% of gdp, but we can do a lot more. and i think that's probably forthcoming. >> wow, all right, 2021, even in that case, before we would be back where we started. thank you both, michelle meyer and peter boockvar joining me this afternoon my next guest also says this isn't the end and thinks we

could see the unemployment rate spiking to the mid-teens joining me is steve oddland, the ceo and president of the conference board also the former ceo and president of office depot and auto zone. when we last spoke, you were emphasizing the importance of keeping that consumer confidence in place and the biggest factor of that was layoffs and now we're seeing them pile up zp >> and therefore, you've seen the unemployment claims jump 1,000% in one week and this is only through last friday it doesn't take into account this week and then the subsequent weeks this isn't the end because this is caused by the government shutdowns and we're only one week into it. the key question here is when do you send people back to work and how does that happen right now, the administration is saying, well, in the non-hot spot areas, we can go back in a few weeks. but they're getting incredible criticism for that, and they're saying, in the hot spot areas, california and new york, as an example, which are huge portions of our economy, it could be much longer sp longer, so the question here on

forecasting the gdp and where this is going to end up, is all about when do you go back and how does that look and we're in an election year, which makes this politically very difficult. so our best guest is that we have a more significant two-quarter contraction than i'm hearing from others. we're saying minus 8% in the second quarter we think the third quarter will be negative and we think the year could be down 6% annualized, but it's all dependent on when do you go back >> right, and going back the predicated on getting tests, so we know who has covid now, who's already had it, and again, henry schein maybe with some progress on that front, at least, being automobile able to clear those populations. >> it's not only that, but it's what the medical community calls the herd immunity. in other words, the immunity in the population because there is a probability, if you look at past pandemics, of a resurgence in september and october. and if there's not the confidence that you can send people back in, you know, what's

the cost of a human life nobody wants to lose any so you're going to be cautious on that. that's what could extend this thing. so the immunization part of it is critically important, so you need to be able to test not the new cases, it's more important to be able to test the immunity of this thing. we've got this relief bill coming, supposed to be signed this weekend mnuchin said checks will be in hands in about three weeks but the bigger issue is retaining these jobs because business leaders should be focused on trying to reduce pay in order to conservative cash rather than layoffs and putting people on the street those loans through the sba for small businesses and the bigger things, that's going to take longer than three weeks to ripple through so we've got a huge period of time here, next month, six weeks before we've got clarity in that kind of stuimulus >> and you've outlined perhaps a more pessimistic scenario than we heard this morning, when paul tutor jones talked about getting the economy back or a peak of cases in early to mid-april, and we have scott gottlieb saying

that he believes that we will have better treatment for covid to prevent a resurgence of this come the fall. you know, i guess these are just -- there are three scenarios basically for how this could play out, and it's anybody's guess. >> and then you have phase iv of the stimulus being developed remember, governments are in precipitous -- you know, precipitously bad condition. new york state, as an example,ed a after $6 billion deficit going into this crisis you now extended the period of time before you get the income from the taxed by 90 days. they could be facing something like an $18 billion deficit. and they can't -- the states and localities can't print money the phase iv will be to shore up municipal governments and shore up state governments that's a further stimulus that needs to hit the economy before things settle out, before the government part of the gdp equation is settled out. so that -- if you start piling all of these things up, you see a two-quarter significant recession here and that should trickle over into the globe and it should be a global -- unfortunately, a

global recession >> we're actually going to talk more a little bit later on about some of those state budgets and how far they could be affected >> here's what's hopeful, the american spirit, we've been through it before. every one of these crises looks dire at this point in time, and when you look back on it, it looks like a speed bump. i think we're here again hopefully this is a bottom and americans know how to lead through this thing and so i'm very bullish on the future it's just the next couple of quarters are going to be tough >> all right you almost convinced me. steve, it's good to see you. appreciate it. steve odland is the ceo of the conference board coming up, a new test is making its way to the u.s. that cannot only detect covid-19, but also 20 other infections with similar symptoms and all in about an hour. the ceo of that company joins us next plus, more and more restaurants are telling their landlords they won't be able to pay the rent come april 1st. we're going to look at the impact that could have on already-struggling malls and a reminder, you can always watch or listen to us live on

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while ago that any realistic scenario about coronavirus will still overwhelm the health care system let's get all the very latest with sue herrera sue? >> kelly, thank you very much. and before we get to governor cuomo, we just got the new numbers from italy and they are grim italy is reporting 6,153 new coronavirus cases. that is the most in five days. total cases now total 80,539 in that country the death toll, up 662, to 8,165. which brings us back to the united states, where new york's governor cuomo is acknowledging that new york is now the epicenter of the outbreak here in the u.s he is working long hours fighting the virus that he does not want to sugarcoat the situation. >> this is not a sprint, this is a marathon we always said, this is not going to be over quickly

i understand people are tired, but i also understand that people in this situation are really stepping up to the plate and are doing phenomenal work. >> all 5,000 personnel aboard the aircraft carrier "theodore roosevelt" will now be tested for the coronavirus. defense officials say at least 23 sailors have tested positive. the infected are being airlifted off the ship as operations there continue so things are moving fast and furious, but as always, for more on the coronavirus coverage here at cnbc, go to cnbc.com. kelly, back to you >> all right, sue, thanks very much now, a new fda policy is helping to accelerate the availability of coronavirus tests, and that includes one from german's qiagen, which can deliver results in about an hour meg terrell is here with those details. meg? >> reporter: hi, kelly the german company saying it's shipping that test to the united states this week to potentially begin to be used there are a lot of good things

about this test. now, it can return results in about an hour, as you said it tests not only for the coronavirus, but also 20 other viruses that cause respiratory infections, including flu and the other coronaviruses that we associate more with colds. it is installed in about 1,100 instruments around the world and hospitals, labs, and clinics, it can be run on those instruments, including about 200 in the united states. so there's a question about how widely will this be used and how much capacity will it add to the system additionally, qiagen is a major maker of the rna extraction kits that are used to run the coronavirus tests from other companies, as well so we've got a lot of questions about this, and joining us to answer those is qiagen ceo, terry bernard. terry, thank you so much for being with us today to talk about this new test and let's start there. how much capacity will this add to the u.s. system, do you think? >> so thank you very much, meg, for this again we have the ramping of our

manufacturing capacity to three ships today and seven days a week we are really renting the manufacturing of that one-hour time to resort solution. however, i would like to insist on something this is not just about qiagen only it's about the extremely good cooperation of so many diagnostic companies currently, not only for the u.s., but also worldwide, to bring together solutions for testing more and more people as we speak. qiagen alone could not be currently answering the entire needs in the u.s no any other company could do that on a stand-alone basis, but altogether, between companies like roche, and others and qiagen, with all of the solutions that we are bring,

sanofi also just announced that they would bring a test as well, altogether, we are going to really able to answer the needs. >> and a lot of folks have commended the commercial industry for really stepping up, especially as we saw those delays with the government tests at the beginning how much do you anticipate that the qiagen test that you're shipping out to the u.s. this week will be able to add in terms of capacity? >> well, i have the ambition, we have the ambition as a company to ship thousands of tests per week and again, it's together with the other companies that we will have the capacity to really answer the needs but as far as qiagen is concerned, we are really betting now on thousands of tests to be shipped to the u.s. a week >> and qiagen also plays an incredibly important role as a manufacturer of the r&a extraction kits, which are necessary to run the tests we understand, you are dramatically ramping up capacity

of those kits in order to be able to supply everybody who's needing to run these tests where does that stand now? can i can i meet the current needs? >> well, once again, we are several companies manufacturing those viral extraction kits and all of us are renting out manufacturing capacity once again, seven days a week as far as qiagen is concerned, we are on our way to be able to manufacture around [ inaudible ] of ten millions of patients per month, renting out quickly around may to 20 million patients per month, based on those rna extraction kits. >> right so by april, you know, 10 million potentially a month, that you can be supplying. right now, are you hearing from clients in the field who are processing all of these tests, that they don't have enough of

these supplies >> indeed, if they are just resorting to only qiagen, like many other companies, we are in the location of product. the fact that we have dramatically, those manufacturing capacity doesn't mean that we can answer everybody to their full needs. so we are doing every level in the u.s. probably not to their full request, but again, it's together with other companies and in the case of extraction of testing, together with roche, then we can answer the demand, altogether, not one company. its common effort from the diagnostic manufacturers >> terry bernard, we really thank you for joining us today and we'll continue the conversation with you. kelly, back over to you. >> thank you, meg. >> and meg, before we go, what would you say is the big

headline from that discussion and from everything that qiagen is up to >> well, that they are working together with the rest of the commercial testing industry to ramp up capacity but what we hear, of course, is that there is a need for tests and these test materials now so there's sort of a disconnect. these companies are working as quickly as they can, but still, you are hearing about these worrying shortages so, it is -- it is concerning to still hear that. >> that's still the major challenge. meg, thanks for bringing that to us very much we appreciate it meg terrell. still to come, can investors trust this rally one of our next guests lays out three scenarios for stocks and how to position yourself for each one plus, the economic crisis is not only taking a major toll on households and businesses. as you heard a few moments ago, it's also going to hammer the finances of states across the country. should we all expect to see our local taxes spike when the shutdos enwnd? stick around for that. our breaking news coverage returns after this break

welcome back stocks are losing a little steam this afternoon we've gone from being up 1,200 points around midday to now up about 750. remember, we're coming off a two-day win streak for the first time in six months and off the

highs after italy just reported the biggest increase in coronavirus cases in five days the dow still up about 20% from its intraday lows on monday and on track for its best week since 1932 and just as the federal government is set to flood the system with money, states could be hit so hard by the coronavirus that they may be actually forced to raise taxes before too long. robert frank is here with this sad state of affairs, robert >> yeah, and some big numbers, kelly. the states really face two issues here headed towards this budget cliff first, the rising cost of unemployment and this health care crisis, coupled with the fact that revenue and tax collections have basically vanished with economic activity stopping so they're going to have to raise taxes and/or cut costs, most likely both let's take a look at new york state. so they went into this with a $6 billion deficit. they're now projecting that tax revenues could fall by up to $15 billion. so that is going to be a huge hole they need to fill legislators there are already talking about a wealth tax, some

kind of tax on high earners. but here's the key, their fiscal year ends in five days so for new york, this is going to be a race against the clock, as they're also trying to deal with the virus new jersey, similar situation. they're talking about what they're saying is a, quote, precipitous drop in revenues governor phil murphy there had proposed a millionaire tax, even before the virus hit that is still likely on the table. but even that would not nearly plug the size of the budget hole that they are going to have. now, the federal government gives the states and counties $150 billion to help that's not nearly going to be enough accustomed with the fact, kelly, that when they extended the tax deadline to just 15th, that deprived states from that usual april surge of tax revenues that they normally get and rely on this time of year, when a lot of their fiscal years start to end. so this is going to be a huge hit to the states, and we're all going to start asking the question in this recovery, when it happens, who is going to pay for all of it? and at the states, because they

can't print money, it's going to be the taxpayers >> robert, a $15 billion hole is almost unfathomable. the best you can hope for is some kind of v-shaped recovery so you all of a sudden get revenue poring back in to the state coffers. but absent that, what other levers can they pull even a millionaire's tax undermines their ability to raise future revenues. >> you're right, kelly, the numbers are huge and as your guest just mentioned, this is also going to present a problem for the recovery, because the federal government is trying to stimulate and the state governments are cutting costs and raising taxes at the same time, this is kind of what we had in 2008, 2009, that's going to prolong any kind of recovery at the national level, especially for big, important, g dp states like california, new york, connecticut. >> we've been speaking with muni bond analysts and traders over the past week or two, asking them, because conditions got pretty bad before the fed

stepped in to support them if this is now when the meredith whitney prediction comes true, she said about a decade ago, widespread bankruptcies were going to happen, and it didn't then, but you wonder about that now, will the federal government ultimately have to step up with trillions more dollars in order to fill this hole? >> i think they're going to have to step up again the muni bond market was just an incredible mess. the yields, what was happening, you look at states like michigan, illinois, i mean, it was really a crisis that was just underreported, because for stock market was crashing so hard, as well. the fed came in, that rescued it for now, but no one knows what these state finances are going to look like, coupled with the fact that the legislators in many states can't even meet right now for physical reasons, so they're trying to solve this remotely, and it's not going to be months, if not a half year or so before we even know what their situation is, to even rate the bonds. >> right, right. robert, thanks we appreciate it

robert frank >> thank you up next, cheesecake factory is the latest big company to say they won't be able to pay their rent next month, and with malls already struggling, how big a hit will this be for them? and it's day 88 now of the global coronavirus crisis. here are some of the haunting images a from around the world we're back in two. hey you, yeah you. i used to be bad with money, but i'm not anymore. i knew i had to take control of the situation. i got my money right with sofi. i opened a sofi money account and it was the first time that i realized that i could be earning interest back on my money. this is amazing. i just discovered sofi, and i'm an investor with a diversified portfolio. who am i?! i searched and found sofi and paid off my credit cards and felt a weight come off my shoulders.

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welcome back cheesecake factory is the latest major mall-based company affected by coronavirus. it's telling landlords that come april 1st, the check is not in the mail jane wells is here to explain. jane >> hi, kelly, cheesecake factory based not far from me. while shares are up today, they have lost nearly half their value so far this year, and so now, like perhaps many of its employees, it's telling its

landlords it's going to skip the rent in april. longtime chairman and ceo david overton writing its landlords, quote, due to these extraordinary events, i'm asking for your patience, and frankly, your help. now, the company has said in these unprecedented times, they have to take into consideration both their obligations and their financial position, their health it's a huge hit to a company with nearly 300 restaurants and 38,000 employees there's actually a change.org petition online to try to force the company to pay those who have been laid out certainly, not everyone is laid off. the cheesecake factory tells customers it is still doing takeout and delivery in most places, but it has closed about two dozen stores and is reportedly drawing on a $90 million credit line. now, most of its stores, it says, are in malls owned by simon property and westfield they've had long-standing relationships with them and simon property shares, while also up today, have been down year-to-date even worse than cake so far, but it's an amazing

story for a chain that has been around for almost a half century. i remember going to the very first store in beverly hills 40 years ago as a teenager. it was such a big deal and also, you know, we talk about how this affects its suppliers, as well, even though they're still doing some delivery and takeout, they used to joke it should be called the chicken factory, because that's their number one purchase. >> we've seen it in beef prices and chicken prices people are buying at the grocery stores are not offsetting this drop, is it? >> no, it's not. and what's interesting is these suppliers to restaurants, and even some restaurants now are turning into grocery stores. i see it all over here, where they will provide you with boxes of food that they have, just to keep it moving and make a little money. >> wow all right, jane, we appreciate it jane wells so are cheesecake factory's problems just the tip of the iceberg for the future of the mall let's ask jan nifin, a cnbc contributor. he joins me on the newsline. jan, kind of the latest blow

here for the mall, and as jane pointed out, simon properties down more than 50% this year it's done even worse than cheesecake factory how long can the mall owners weather this >> it's a big problem. they're getting hundreds of requests every day now, or notices, on people who like cheesecake factory or like subway, that you've recently read about, are just not able to and are not going to be able to pay their rent and if they can't pay their rent, it's very difficult to make your debt payment on the mall and we're going to see bankruptcies, certainly among retailers, i don't know about mall operators, but they're certainly going to struggle as they have to deal with all of these people not being able to pay their rent we've never really seen a situation before that lasted very long, where the income at the retailer inside the mall went to zero for all practical purposes after 9/11, we saw a real huge drop, of course, in traffic and a huge drop in sales but it came back relatively quickly. right now, a lot of these

retailers are looking at sales down 90%, because if you're not selling consumables or portables, i guess, you should say, your business isn't really happening. and even if you do a significant portion of it online, 25 or 30%, people aren't buying what you're selling. so if you're not in the toilet paper, clorox, hand sanitizer business, your business has gone down dramatically. and how do you pay your rent these guys -- they're looking at it and saying, it's not my fault that the mall shut down, either you shut the mall down or the government shut the mall down, why am i the one that's going to go broke i'm just not going to pay rent so now there's going to be a huge fight going forward, between -- >> and like you said, already some litigation about this >> let me just ask ou, in the stimulus bill, what provisions would help either the mall owners or the, you know, the restaurants, the retailers, get through this and get some

relief >> well, first of all, we don't actually have a stimulus bill that's done yet. it still hasn't been signed. and it hasn't been passed through the house. so i'm really kind of freaked out that it's waited a week to get done, because it would at least put money back in people's hands, the restaurant owners and people like that, and maybe it's really going to be passed through to the employees and to keep them going, but the big players, they're not getting much out of this from the point of view of the government. what they're going to get out of this is better economic activity but if what you're buying is not what they're selling with the money you're getting from the government, there's really not anything in this for big mall operators, big store developers, and big operators. >> that's really for the smaller people and for other parts of the business but we're really not seeing anything that says, i don't have to pay the bank if i'm a mall owner, because the guy that i'm leasing to can't pay me rent

>> is that because politicians were so afraid of this coming off as a big business bailout, that they neglected that necessarily support? or is the expectation that these companies should have other ways of getting that capital from markets, for example, in order to stay viable >> well, i think what we're depending on is that the loan process will work. because we know treasury is going to do an enormous amount of loans at these businesses and the question is, who do they go to, and are you solvent enough to get the loan the real rule was, if you were solvent before covid, we can get you a loan so hopefully they can get loans though these guys fast enough, but that's really part of what treasury is going to do. that's not specifically part of this bill. but this bill does free up treasury to take those actions and they're already take those actions, but now they'll have a lot more money to put into the system that's what's got to save the big companies. what's going to save the small companies is going to be relief from having to pay all of the employees getting money and putting money back into the

system but until we open the business back up, the world, until we start doing real business again, the business who are operating in the mall are in big trouble, because they don't sell the stuff at walmart, target, people like amazon sell they sell things that are totally discretionary and you don't need another sweater if you're worried about having enough toilet paper and clorox >> are there any companies in particular you're really worried about? >> well, i'm really worried about all of the companies, but all of the ones we've been worrying about, the mall-based guys, penny would be a good example, we've been worried about them for a long time the remainder of what is left of sears, we've been worried about for a long time. this exacerbating all of that. last year we closed about 10,000 to 11,000 stores this year we'll close at least 20 given what's going on, maybe more last year, we had 19 retail bankruptcies we could see 40, maybe 50 this year unless something happens pretty fast. so those businesses that were hurting already in a lot of cases, so all the ones that were struggling already, mall traffic

was already dropping, but now it's dropped dramatically. so we're sort of advancing all of the bad news we were going to have over maybe the next five or seven years, all into right now. >> yeah. >> and that's how it feels across the whole economy all right, jan, thank you. good to see you, we appreciate it jan niffin we're getting some headlines from steph curry's interview with dr. anthony fauci >> the discussion is ongoing on instagram right now. dr. fauci basically says that coronavirus testing is going, quote, very much in the right direction. that's a little bit of good news he says they will soon get some guidelines on how many days a person may actually wait after recovering from the coronavirus to return to regular life. and that could include going back to work because we don't yet know at what point are you completely resolved and noncontagious again. and dr. fauci says he thinks the coronavirus will, indeed, circle

back into next season. he does not think it will disappear. that's worrisome, but he says that we will get enough experience from this current time and outbreak, so that we will not have to lock down again if the coronavirus comes back. it is an ongoing conversation, kelly, that we're going to monitor, but the key headline, i think is that if it does come back, we might not have to go into lockdown. that's at least dr. fauci's opinion at this point. back to you. >> all right once again, in an interview with steph curry, sue, we appreciate it stocks are trying to do something they haven't done in over a month, and that's rally three days over a row. can investors trust this rebound or should they wait for the markets to retest the lows we'll debate that after the break. take a quick look at shares of slack before we go it's pacing for its best week ever slack came to the market in june of last year as a direct listing, aig bef beniciary of work from home we'll be right back. every time it takes care of something for us, we celebrate. how often does that...

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welcome back >> kelly, over the could you

rephrase the past couple of weeks, every time there's been immense selling pressure be the market you have seen some of the bigger exchange traded funds really dislocate from the market this is an interesting point the reason why etfs have been under immense pressure is some of them have been sold off so aggressive they have one pointless than the value of the portfolio themselves it's basically a fancy way of saying these etfs were trading at less than the actual value in the portfolio. it happened in bond related fund, credit related funds, international country funds and commodity funds as well. you can see the sharp sell off in shares. look at this chart their data shows at one point this thing traded at about 28% below the value of the actual

sates. one of the other examples to watch is the eye shares india index. you can see there's sharp sell off in the stock but look at this at one point this thing traded about 8% below where its actual port fell ofolio was before reb. that created some opportunities for investors to capitalize. these types of etfs would be under immense stress again >> those are more of the kind of -- what about the broad etfs. >> in some of the larger, very big passively traded tracking etfs, typically those portfolios don't trade.

even those dropped to very big historic lows against where they traded normally. some of the more liquid etf attract big cap stocks were the ones that felt big hits as well. >> thank you we appreciate it are there any signs of this market finding a bottom? joining me now is bryan. it's good to see you are we going to retest the lows, so to speak? >> i think you'll hear a lot about it we came out with our note on monday and said that we believe the stock market in the united states was going to rally 40 to 50% from the lows. i think we're on our way these are unprecedented times. unprecedented. i think we, as investors, have to expect unprecedented upside after this unprecedented irra

irrational traders we're bringing that emotion to what's happening with respect to markets. that's why we have written a lot about panic. that's why we talk about our conviction as resolute we think they're the best companies in the world yes we'll have very negative news in next quarter we can't control that. that's why we think we have more to go. whether or not we'll retest, nobody, nobody can predict the bottom just like nobody predicted the top.

>> are people risking a big capital loss by putting money into the stock market now? >> no they're not. you have seen a lot of tax loss selling take place i learned the business 30 years ago from my mentor, he used to tell me institutional money is the smart money and retail money is the dumb money. my calls with high net worth people have been calm and not a lot of anxiety they are positioned accordingly. it's the institutional money that's missed this because they have been all one sided. that's why it's so important to stick with the best companies from a longer term perspective in sectors like communication service, technology and discretionary. >> you'd stick with quality as opposed to the stuff that's hardest hit? >> we would.

you had the low quality rally. stick with high quality and stick with the best company. >> let me sneak in final one there. it's good the see you today. our special coverage continues after this break if you haven't checked your 401(k) lately, we'll try to help en owh tdooechbsef ato now. when i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. mmm... good. so i've spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. we are so good. we built a guide that uses ibm watson...

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good afternoon our breaking news coverage of the market and global pandemic continues. big rally on wall street 900 points all the major averages on track for the third straight day we haven't seen that in quite some time. it's the best week since going all the way back to the 1930s. the move comes despite a record breaking 3.3 million jobless claims as businesses shut down across the country because of the virus. during the financial crisis, the