good afternoon, every one. it's 2:00 in the east. our breaking news continues now. stocks are sliding with just two hours left in this trading week. the market giving back a big chunk of the gains this has the house passed that 2 trillion dollar relief package we're keeping a close eye on oil at this hour west texas intermediate falling. there you see it off more than 6.5% energy by far the worst performing sector now down more than 55% 50%. retail on our radar as well with

our nation shutdown, this group is under serious pressure. we'll get the latest from former macy's ceo that is coming up this hour. we begin with latest developments our reporters are standing by to track the action for you kayla following the passing of ta that recovery bill in washington steve is breaking down the moves by a very busy fed kayla, let's begin with you. >> reporter: after a chaotic 24 hours and a few couple week of tense negotiations, this lbill passed the house in under a minute with a chorus of voice votes supporting the package you saw bipartisan leadership from the house of representatives signs this bill, entering it into the official record on capitol hill from there it's going to be sent over the the white house the legal team will review it there. i'm told by a senior official that president trump intends to sign it as soon as possible and

that you may see a photo op of him doing that those details are still being worked out what comes next from that? obviously, you have different agencies that will be working to grease the skids to get funds to the intended recipients. different eligible businesses, different eligible workers who are hard hit and applying for some of these unemployment benefits now there's already talk of phase four and even phase five of a relief bill the timing might make that a little tricky. april 20th is when the senate is expected to come back from its recess i'm talking to a house aid who says it's unclear what the house schedule will look like and a senior administration official says that the hope is that a second relief bill or a fourth relief bill, as this may be, hopefully won't be needed. this bill is intended by the administration to last eight weeks. that's what the messaging has been so far. the vice president yesterday said that the treasury secretary and lawmakers stand ready to assist if it is needed if some

of this data comes in worse than expected, if the market gets undermine and if americans are not amelorated by some of the payments coming their way. >> we got a couple of hours left in this chaotic trading week looks as though stocks may finish on a sour note. hey, bob >> looks like we have been trying the mid day rally boeing has gone from 97 to $180 this week. chevron was 70 went to 52 on monday back here towards the 71, 72 range.

you see the numbers here 110 again. these are crazy swings this is happening every single day. just on the closing prices, this week, monday down 8.9% five, six, seven percent between the highs and lows there's no way the vix will go down that's what they have been

seeing, 5, 6% swings every day until we get it down 2 or 3%, we're not going to see the vix move down. back to you. >> love those posters. >> thank you from a history basic week to the markets to a historic week for the fed. chair powell has gone pr tfrom e preside president's dog house to maybe the penthouse. let's bring in steve >> the federal reserve's balance sheet hitting a historic $5 trillion a level never reached during the financial crisis it could nearly double as a result o f this bill that kayla just told us was passed by the house. let's look at the balance sheet. $4.9 trillion as of this past

wednesday. they have over $4 trillion now look at the weekly change. you'll see on a per week basis, we don't see anything like this during the financial crisis. go back to 2008, 2009 when the fed first ramped up its balance sheet. the numbers were 300 billion they look quaint after the federal reserve did nearly $100 of purchases and mortgage backed securities in the past couple of weeks. there's $454 billion in this bill that can be used or will be used over at the treasury. the senate gives that money to the treasury the treasury then uses that as a backstop this is our understanding of how this would work which enables the fed to loan at call it what they have been doing, something like a 10 to 1 ratio of leverage they could do loans up $4.5 trillion i have no idea if they will do

that much. they are trying to do small and medium and some large size businesses the fed could do small loans the united states has pretty good economy but they go onto warn about the potential here. >> where does all this money come from? does it come from a printing press in does it come from borrowings that the treasury

will undertake where does the money come from >> your question isn't dumb. it's just antiquated you can click a button and credit the account you don't have to print the money anymore. that's the way we used to do it. now you just create it >> create it out of thin air it doesn't really exist. >> thin air is how they used to do it. now they use electricity and create zeroes and ones and binary stuff it doesn't become actual cash in the economy until it's loaned out. right now it stays within the system it's a transfer of the debt on a private sector balance sheet onto the debt of the federal

reserve's balance sheet. >> the money is going from the fed to those private balance sheets that had the debt that were carrying the debt before, am i understanding >> exactly the money that's going to be sent to individuals, that would be an increase in the public debt and there's some interesting questions about mnt and other ways this money can be created. that's a conversation for another time >> that's another time daddy, where does the money come from you answered it. the dow is still on track for its best week since the 1930s. are we near a bottom in stock prices or will they retest the recent lows. let me begin with you.

>> thank you for having me on the show we have starpt started seeing s normalcy coming. that doesn't mean we're in the clear. i think what is more important is that the markets malfunctioning was one of the three problems it probably was the easier one >> we'll get to that in a minute i want to go to ron with that same question. are you seeing a calmness, a resumption of normal functioning in the credit markets? >> it's a relative at this

juncture i'm not sure every corner of the credit market is functioning properly. we have not seen rates come down to an extent yes, we're not fully out of the woods we'll see default rates go up. we'll see loan obligations run into some trouble. that's part of what we have experienced if prior debt crisis as well. this being one symptom of everything else. >> let's move to topic two which will be the economy and topic three will be the markets. the economy, we don't know

about. we got one reading yesterday it was breathtaking on jobless claims there will be more of those. there will be some truly, horrifying numbers reported on the economy and from corporations when we start seeing profits reported in april, right we have not hit the bottom because the next few weeks will be super challenging we will get worse numbers. it will be challenging for the market once we peak our base case is mid to late april. we hopewe would be peaking by then and country starts to open up and then markets will

reassess the economic situation. we'll see whether the stimulus, the jury is out but we'll see if the stimulus is going to be as effective as we hope it will be. otherwise it will be new packages to follow then. >> ron, last night on cnn on a town hall, bill gates said to keep the economy on ice. dry ice until may. whooer in t we're here in the new york market and things have been tightened down other parts may be feeling very different than what we're seeing here we had a very abrupt shutdown and the start up may not be anywhere near as swift as the shutdown was >> i would agree with that

entirely i listened to the whole gates interview last night he may be more of an infectious disease expert than a technological expert listening to how much the economy and how long the economy had to be locked down, i thought was quite eye opening. we heard this from jim kramer this morning saying the ramp up could be slow. how quickly you want to get on plane, a train, a subway how quickly do you want to go to the theater or any place where large crowds gather. it could take longer

this thing has a tail on it. we don't know whether or not these states that appear not to have problems today will not have problems later on which is the point mr. gates was making last night >> i know, ron, you say a typical bear market process includes a retest of the low would you be surprised to see that in the stock market in other words, a retest of the lows we saw on monday? >> imds n would not be surprise. the market sneeneeds to have th sense we're over the worst of the epidemic that said, there are, i think, opportunities that are already arising for investors who are

looking to start coming into this market. a lot of it is in the credit market >> thank you very much >> thanks. the unprecedented $2 trillion relief bill passing the house of representatives by voice vote in the past few minutes or so, but does the bill go far enough to help americans, working people through the economic crisis caused by this pandemic joining us is former secretary of labor during the clinton administration welcome back good to have you with us >> nice to see you i'm obviously, talking from my home as everybody else is. i think the $2 trillion bill goes some way toward certainly helping small business and i think it's a good thing that the bill provides unemployment insurance for people and relaxes

some of the unemployment insurance eligibility criteria but the $1200 per adult really isn't very much. it's not going to carry people very far the typical american is paid about $1,000 a week as it is this crisis could easily go on for two or three or even four months that $1200 is just not going to do it. >> it may pay the rent for one month for some people. it may not come close to paying the rent for many people this might not be the last of the help that the federal government might deliver you quibble or quarrel, i guess, maybe it's more than a quibble, with the corporate assistance that is part of this package something like $500 billion. am i correct about that? >> yes i don't think that big corporations need bail outs. we have been through this with

wall street bail out already the fact of the matter is that the credit markets are actually pretty efficient with regard to reorganizing debt. whether in the shadow of chapter 11 bankruptcy. the airlines will not go under their creditors don't want them go to go under. they have collateral it's ridiculous to think the airlines need billions and billions of dollars. >> let me push back a little bit. number one, is it fair to call this a corporate bail out or is it relief that if you look at it from another standpoint is going to save jobs because it will extend money to help bridge the companies whether it's airlines or not i know that airlines bought a lot of their stock back. there are people who question whether we should be giving them money if what they done is put

money back in shareholders pockets. isn't this a bridge to get back in health. why couldn't the airlines fail they might >> they're not going to fail look at the planes look at the landing slots. it's absurd to think they will be liquidated. they are renegotiating their debts all the time $1200 per person and not tiding people over for more than a week the pri y priorities are wrong e

>> i suppose one could point out that many of the airlines, many of them, not all of them have been through bankruptcy before united has >> get out of what they consider labor contracts. we now have four major airlines. >> secretary rice, always good to see you thank you for your perspective we appreciate it the new book is the system who rigged it. how we fix it. it is out this week. can't go to a store to buy it but maybe you can order it still to come, retail getting hit real hard during this market sell off the etf that tracks that sector down more than 25% this month. is there more pain ahead for retail first, the 3-d printing community coming up with new y

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we're roughly 23 minutes past the hour. let's go to sue. >> we're begin in europe the death toll is more than 26,000 this has health officials in italy rush to build more temporary hospitals. here at home, new york's governor addressing the challenge the city is facing he told national guard members they are in for a long fight >> this is an invisible beast. it is an insids yous beast this is not going to be a short deployment this is not going to be that you go out there for a few days. we work hard and we go home. this is going to be weeks. and weeks and weeks. >> louisiana fighting to keep up

with the outbreak in new orleans. the convention center is getting turned into a temporary hospital for more onthe coronavirus coverage, you can always head to cnbc.com back do you. sf >> thank you very much companies of all shapes an sizes are heedsing are you aurgent ca. now the technology community is finding a new way to help. josh is here with the details. josh one group of companies that think it can make a real difference is the 3-d printer industry hp says it's now coordinating with governments and health care agencies to identify what medical equipment is needed most and leveraging 3e ining 3-d pri make those parts they have already produced more

than 5,000 face shields and hands free door openers. it isn't alone strstasyk is engaged in this challenge. they tell us hundreds of hospitals are now reached out to the company asking for a total of 350,000 such face shields tim green who covers the industry says 3-d printers do have certain advantages. the biggest, flexibility they is make parts anywhere they are placed and modifications to the manufacturing process are easier t there are draw backs he said traditional machiners can turn out parts faster and at lower costs. new parts can require regulatory approval back to you. >> thank you very much when we come back, bryan sullivan will join us for the oil close.

west texas krucrude on the vergo falling below $21. oil could drop to single digits. we'll have the latest on that. former macy's ceo will join us retail just can't catch a break. first the trade war. now the coronavirus. how many stores will close their doors forever this year. you can always watch us or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app we'll be right back. ntueafr s vegeewcora coins tethis tomorrow.

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welcome back let's give you a check on the markets as the dow settles lower. s&p more than 2% down. basically that kind of day across the board nasdaq 2.25% let's look at sectors. you got energy, industrials, communication services those are the worst performers right now. you tillti you till -- utilities seeing gains. p and g and travelers are two names in the green

>> when you take a look at what's going on with the airlines, the thing you have to keep in mind is how much traffic has slowed down for these guys and it's resulted in seeing a number of photos, video, different shots from around the world of airplanes that are parked nobody is flying just over 200,000 people were cleared by the tsa yesterday as a result what you're looking at is a situation where airlines, they will have to cut their schedules and park their planes in fact, the schedule cuts that we're seeing from the airlines right now, it ranges from 25%, which is on the low end. that's from southwest all the way up to 90% which is what you're hearing from some of the carriers today you had a few airlines that said we'll increase how

many aircraft we're planning on parking over the next month, two months for american airlines, its may schedule is down 80% the thing to keep in mind is that their load factors, they are down in the low single digits it's matter of repositioning aircraft one said there was one from new york to st. louis. one person on board. one. it was an airline employee that's the situation we're in right now. you will see this continue for some time. they will still searching for a bottom when it comes to demand they're not seeing it at this point.

we're continuing the see it fall >> phil, i don't know whether you heard the interview with former secretary reich about ten minutes ago in which he was highly critical of what he described as bailout for the airline business and feeling they can get through it. they have gotten through things before and this was unnecessary on the part of the treasury. >> if there's not a bail out, they go bankrupt >> so what >> that's the argument you hear from people. send them into bankruptcy. there is airline service as it exists right now they are bringing down their schedules. you don't see them out and out

saying we're not doing chicago to miami anymore that's the risk you run. this is an insurance policy we have the same level of service for the next several months. >> thank you very much appreciate your thoughts there the oil market closing for the day. crude lower by about 4% today. >> one of the longest tenured and one of the most widely respected guys out there we had a wide ranging conversation you're seei ining oil fall today what is being talked about is not only this is a saudi russia price war but was interesting is

scott said the biggest of the big companies, he called out marathon and exxon mobile that they are sort of engaging in a fight for survival which is every company for itself in the oil patch. i want you to listen to this to your reference fairly dire warning about what could happen to a large majority of the publicly traded oil gas companies. >> we have no solutions. what happens, as you know there's about 74 public independents there's only going to be about ten left at the end of 2021 that have decent balance sheets the rest become ghosts or zo zombies. >> you heard phil talk about the airlines they are getting their bail out. the oil and gas company are concerned about that as well there's 74 publicly traded oil and gas companies out there. that's not even including things like the pipeline, service companies and private companies.

i heard what you said before the break, it is possible oil could go to the high single digit, low teens. not saying it will but it's possible >> what is the outlook that the large and well capitalized and the fortress balance sheets go in and buy the week ducklings? >> right now pretty much zero. keep some of these companies going in a sense you don't want to buy a company right now that is kind of a zombie. you're pumping oil to meet your bare minimum debt servicing needs. you're not going to take on the debt and they pretty much all have debt. the majority, over half the industry, the last time i looked, had a net debt to ebitda

above three times. put that in perspective. scott's company, pioneer, exxon is 0.3 it's all we have been talking about this for over a year this shouldn't come as a surprise to any of the cnbc audience >> thank you very much have a good weekend. we'll be watching you tonight. retailers are getting hit hard today and having a rough month with the retail etf down 25%. we'll talk to macy's former ceo. he'll weigh in on whether there's more pain ahead for the sector i think the answer is yes. we'll be right back. plap it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved.

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creating a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. . worries about the coronavirus remain front and center this as the retail etf, the xrt has had a rough month. you can say that again down about 25% for the month so far on the news line to talk about the road ahead for retailers is terry lundgren, former ceo of macy's good to have you back with us. >> thank you always a pleasure to talk to you. i hope you and your family are well >> yes

>> let's talk about retail and what happens when the world swings back into motion. what's it going to look like >> after every crisis i've experienced it's always a matter of those who are strong end up come out stronger and those who were weak to begin with, fall by the wayside or have to completely reimagine their business we have had conversations that i've said for years that america is over stored physically. as we have grown the online business, that physical space has not come out this is a chance now to accelerate that process of store closures to get supply and

demand back in right balance >> i want to get to a couple of things you raised there who are the strong and who are the weak. i want to pivot to mainstreet retail i can well imagine the carnage would be dealer in what we would call national retail, the chains the small stores whose income and revenue have been cut to zero and probably don't have a large online presence. what's going to happen to them and then by extension what will happen to the landlord, the real estate companies that own those stores >> this is the most difficult and challenging piece of this entire quation

that is because most retail, which is that is largest non -- outside of the government, the largest employer in the united states representing about 50 million jobs and most of them are small business most of these small businesses have less than ten plemployees. they don't have the opportunity to last for a payroll for 90 days without income being generated. many of these smaller stores don't have a significant online presence they count on customers coming into their physical locations and if these stores are closed, which most of them are today, if they are considered a non-special businenonh non-essential business, it's very difficult there's no immediate solution to that over than some government subsidy to help these smaller businesses get through this time and putting money in the pocket of these employees who will lose their jobs if there is not a

quick response in this regard. this is a big, big concern you saw many main street locations empty and that they were just not able to satisfy the demand of the consumer, the physical retail storage. there's just too many of them. there's already hold and this will broaden that on main street store in the masmaller mom and o stores >> you talk about how the strong will merge, the people that were strong, the stores that were strong going in will emerge maybe stronger than before those that were weak will die or emerge weaker than before. give me some names in each category, if you don't mind.

>> in the strength category, which i prefer to talk about i think companies like walmart and target, particularly, have done a terrific job this year. home depot and lowe's. those companies that have performed well in the big box category by the way, in all cases, they are accelerating their growth online none of them had strong online businesses two years ago they put capital into that cot goir and it paid off for them. i think they will continue to perform after this crisis pass us you mentioned lululemon or someone did. the last quarter meaning nothing

compared to what this one looks like all of us will suffer. if a company that strong before showing great signs of consumer demand, like the product and experience, i think they will km out well >> i was spoking to a person who long career in retail a couple of months ago. i asked her, what would be the death mill for a mall. she said and this was dark and ominous. she said it would be a mass terror or shooting event like what took place at the mgm a year or so ago out in las vegas. i bet if i asked her today what would be the death nail of the mall, she would say, apandemic

like this. are people going to want to go back and go into malls and be encountering people or are they permanent lly now going to shif over to what they have been doing which is ordering online >> let's just put this in perfectivpe perspecti perspective. you raise a good point or she raised a good point. as horrifying as that example is and something we always worried about, we haven't focused on that for some time because that's in our past today all we're focused on is there's going to be a virus that will infect us in large gathering place. there are strong malls out there

that will stay there are weaker ones. i strongly believe it will be the same story, as i just described as the retailers and that is as people will return to shopping, they will go to those places where they want to congregate they will go to restaurant they will want that social interaction. i study consumer behavior most of my adult life i've seen these examples in the past you kind of just gave me reference point. what we think is so horrific at a moment in time, over time, we get by that and we'll probably move onto some other stuff that is negative. i strongly believe the consumer will be back and shopping once again. >> i hope you're right i think you're right because i believe we're in the end all human beings and we're social creatures and going out and being among people gives us energy and solace. thanks >> my pleasure >> quick programming note.

tune in to cnbc at 7:00 p.m. eastern. at 7:30, the path forward, your business with marcus lemonis we'll talk about the challenges facing independent businesses. tweet us your questions. american smul business anxiously awatsi ingawaiting th relief bill. tha they've got that passage one sector was left out. we'll tell you when we return.

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according to rule, the start ups should be affiliated with their investors. for example, the vs backed company has 30 employees grouped in potentially with other employees. they could make an exception and issue guidance even though the bill was passed. venture capital groups are certainly lobbying for that. i spoke to a professor that says there's not much in washington to bend those rules. there's a perception they have access to the $1.5 trillion in dry powder the that private equity had going into this year. lawmakerers don't want to be seen as bailing out wealthy investors. the head of venture capital says they don't have access and there could be waves of job losses for the country's 2.2 million start up employees >> thank you very much markets snapping their three-day win streak and while a the losses have been steep, a top global strategist says even if we are in a recession now, it won't look like the financial crisis

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good to have you with us >> thanks for having me. >> what should i do with my money now? >> well, the first thing we've been telling clients is not to try to time the market i've seen number of people including family members, b friends texting me saying is this the bottom? should by buying now i think especially in times of volatility, that's the worst thing you could do if you look at the last seven years worth of data, if you missed the ten best days during that period, you would have seen half your returns that you would have seen if you just stayed in the market so the key here and earlier this week, we got a little glimpse of that if you try to time the market and miss monday and tuesday and get back in, you would have done a lot of harm to your portfolio. >> so you would have been better off just riding it out, staying put if you're on a regular investing plan as many are in a 401(k), keep doing what you're

doing. you'll come out ahead rather than getting out and trying to get back in. you're going to get one or the other wrong chances are. as the president just announced he's going to resign the relief bill at 4:00 p.m. at the white house, maybe in the rose garden, we'll find out we'll be covering that andres, tell me a little bit about how you see this recession. let's presume we're in one how it's going to be different from 2007. >> i think that's a great question so the first thing if you take a step back, most recessions that we've seen especially the severe w ones were manmade. and it was a crisis of confidence and in 2007, 2008, it was essentially that maybe the banking was going to disappear there was so much leverage in the system that even the large banks were going to go under that is very different than the situation we're dealing with today. this is a natural disaster and from that perspective, there's pros and cons, b

obviously. the cons is like a hurricane, it's very hard to predict. and this is a hurricane that might hit every city in the united states so the magnitude of it could be much larger than a human made recession on the other end, the crisis of confidence might not be on this one. meaning we don't know if the this is going to last three months, six months, a year, a year and a half, until the vaccine is out, but what we know from a human standpoint, the human spirit hasn't been broken. the same way it was in 2007 and 2008 that's one way to think about it the other is what makes the economy. gdp. in 2007, 2008, the financial industry and the construction industry was 24% of gdp. if you look at it today, 12% of the economy is travel, lee sure, retail the sectors that are going to be hit the hardest. so it might be a deep recession when it comes to the next couple of quarter, but it doesn't have the same magnitude as it did in

2007 and 2008. >> we have to leave it there thank you very much. stay safe. have a good weekend, sir >> take care all right, what a week it has been thank you for watching our breaking news coverage and it continues now into the last hour of this moe men tuss trading week b and day the dow off b about 500 points ch see you next week >> tyler, thank you so much. it does continue good afternoon i'm wilfred frost along with sara and tyler as we continue to social distance here at cnbc. we are in the final hour of o another historic week on wall street with stocks giving back some of this week's massive gain still up 12% for the week though let's look at what's driving the action the house of representatives officially passing the $2 trillion coronavirus relief bill which now heads to the prosecutor's desk, e