tv Street Signs CNBC April 2, 2020 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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n of "tedaline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [music playing] welcome to "street signs." i'm geoff cutmore. >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> too late for fighting petroleum which files for bankruptcy protection. 80% of americans in quarantine >> a few days from now are going to be horrific
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my board is taking action to make sure america has the equipment needed to fight the global pandemic. beijing hits back after president trump questions the accuracy of china's coronavirus data >> their numbers seem to be a little on the light side i'm being nice when i say that, relative to what we witnesses and what is being reported cruise companies forced to issue stock at $8 a share and raise debt with a staggeringly high coupon. very warm welcome to "street signs. let's get you a check on market action it has been a choppy session for
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market equities. all four of the major regions are seeing gains we saw the dax lower and the ftse 100 before rebounding now we have seen an uptick we have seen on both sides of the atlantic, a plunge in equity prices today, a little more optimistic. clearly overall, investors still lack conviction of where we go from here. more to look at the severity of the impact even more americans filing unemployment we saw a record of 3 million americans filing for benefits.
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oil and gas is the clear outperformer we have seen shell up 8%, bp up 6% very strong gains after a rally with oil price looking at wti and brent wti up nearly 10%. this comes on the back of a few developments the white house has invited white house chiefs in the united states in for meetings all of that is weighing sentiment for investors. as you saw, oil companies trading higher >> an interesting thing, there is a fevered speculation now we may be going opec plus plus. seeing america and russia
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getting involved to perhaps manage the energy crisis part of that story comes because president trump is set to meet this friday to talk about the crash in oil prices and possible solutions. it will be too late for some the whiting petroleum core will be the latest to file the producer to file after the market value collapsed from a higher $15 million to $13 million whiting has reached a deal with its creditors to cree structure its debt cutting it by just over $2 billion joining us, managing director for the group at goldman sach private development.
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a reminder earlier that there are a lot of these skeleton balance sheets around. what advise are you giving clients? >> good morning. we start from a different standpoint the real economy and financial markets went into this crisis in pretty good and healthy shape. the reason we are going to see the down turn is mainly due to the pandemic the main advice we give to our clients who are longer term investors is we added the point where we start seeing some light at the end of the tunnel we all know the recession is going to be pretty deep in the
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second quarter of the year but assuming that the social distance measures play out in the flattening of the spread and considering that governments have taken very quickly, sizeable spending measures to support the economy, we think we can start looking through the second quarter and perhaps watching toward what is going to happen when we think about the recovery the recovery we have in mind is a sharp one. the fast recovery once again, once the pandemic is under control is due to the policy measures in place. the advice we give to clients perhaps is the time to start very gradually and looking to u.s. equities and adding u.s.
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equities to your portfolio now we are not calling the bottom of the market nobody has the visibility to do that in a consistent base. as we know, financial markets are forward looking. now our advice to clients, we get to more positive positions we had done so through options a week ago, we had start adding outright u.s. sectors. >> that is fascinating there are those in our audience who would say that
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many were expecting the end of that cycle any time over the last 18 months we also know global debt to gdp of 322% i think from the iif data shows that we find the non-financial corporate sector leveraged. it is interesting you see a v-shape opportunity here and already adding long side positions. >> your points on the talk of debt and the fact that expansion has been very prolonged is a fact there are pieces of evidence that need to be considered together with this one first, the expansions don't die
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of old age they die because of the tightening or they die because there are big financial bubbles in the financial sector. as for the first reason, we know the fed has eased, we were expecting them to stay on before the pandemic now we have seen easing put in place to counter act this very high negative shock that we are all facing because of the pandemic although the stock of corporate in the u.s. is very high, the affordability of this debt is very low interest rates are very low. if you look at the data of services, it is at the lowest
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historically. >> sorry to interrupt. the u.s. stock market had its first crash. it lasted years after the 1920s crash and came in in the 30s the infrastructure promises came in if this is deeper and lasts longer, will you turn seller and advise investors to turn seller? >> again, the depth of this shock is clearly something not easy to predict because it is
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unprecedented. our own research department and colleagues are predicting the order of 30% and a short recovery there after clearly, whatever we are advising is based on our view that there is going to be a recovery you are right, there are other call downs that may be larger. throughout the throw down, we have seen in history we have seen throw downs from 35 to 46, 47% like it was in the financial crisis that has to be kept in mind. the stimulus is sizeable we are talking about in the u.s.
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the fiscal stimulus in the order of 11% gdp that we would put in place according to the federal reserve to increase spending even by three years. that is around $400 billion. we could extend loans for each dollar debt. >> sylvia, when i look back at the performance i saw over the month of march, the selloff really gathered pace when the price war of saudi and russia kicked off now we are seeing a massive rebound and uptick to what extend do you think
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resolution would support a drive here and higher in equity markets? >> that is definitely scope for good news. we don't advise investors on our daily news we have longer fundamental view based on the economic outlook, the policy outlook that we have. we need to see what comes out to these meetings any big price shocks have the impact on the economy. they are negative but for some sectors as oil importer, those
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are likely to support disposable income >> thank you for joining us. managing director investment strategy group goldman sach. we'll hear how one of wall street's biggest banks is doing later today when we sit down with david solomon coming up, kpcombatting the virs how the military alliance can help combat the virus. that's coming up next. shouldn't you pay less when you use less data? now you can.
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in negative territories. if those levels hold, we'll look for a firmer start to trade on wall street. 80% of americans are under lockdown 39 states have added the directive. florida, georgia, nevada and mississippi are the latest as they have confirmed 216,000 the u.s. leader added he is weighing a plan to close flights in and out of hot spots while warning americans the next couple of weeks will be horrific >> states are traffic. i understand florida, the great governor of florida issued one today. but some states are different. they don't have much of a
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problem. they don't have thousands of people that are positive or thousands of people that even think or hundreds of people in some cases you have to give a little bit of flexibility with every state in the midwest or alaska, for example, doesn't have a problem, it is awfully tough to say close it down. the ism's manufacturing pmi dropped to 45.1. private companies cut 27,000 jobs before most of the shutdowns came into force. according to a report from adp fiat chrysler reported a 7% dip in sales more employment data from march will be released
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reuters estimates nonfarm payrolls will drop weekly jobless claims could top 5 million. and it is said the impact has already put the u.s. into an economic downturn. >> caller: with 3 million unemployment claims, we are clearly in a downturn. >> robert kaplan will speak to cnbc this morning. nato holding an address to the alliance spoke to cnbc about the group's role in the outbreak so far. >> caller: we are working
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together and the military are playing a key role across the lines supporting civilian efforts from everything from controlling border crossings to disinfecting spaces and building hospitals. militaries and nato are helping in significant way to fight coronavirus crisis >> we've seen a consistent failure on the part of european countries to work together at least initially. nato is full of formidable tools. you have the ability to command thousands of people, soldiers, medics, doctors, nurses. doesn't it make sense that nato members should authorize you to take a bigger role to try to tackle covid-19?
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>> caller: nato's main call to mobilize sources from nations. this is a crisis that affects us all. it is a crisis that is only affecting one or two limited nations and they can provide support. this is different because everyone is affected what they are calling on us to see if we have a spared capacity and then allocate these to other allies germany has taken patients from italy and from france and given them treatment after hospitals in germany, the czech republic have provided equipment to spain and italy. >> the inspector general said nato is also ready to deal with
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china as a superpower. nau >> caller: that is something new. for the first time in our history, we are as an alliance addressing the consequence addressing the rise of china >> the director -- the secretary-general of nato. we have a flash coming from the german state development bank, kfw, they expect the german economy to shrink by 10 to 15% in the second quarter. that flash from routeeuters thi hour the chinese foreign minister says the u.s. is making
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shameless comments about china's vor asity. w.h.o. says the confirmed number of cases will hit 900,000. over 930,000 cases have been confirmed, 46,000 deaths the death toll in the uk rose on wednesday taking the total number over 2,300. new cases rose by 4,300 by the previous day uk prime minister boris johnson has vowed to ramp up the testing and ultimately defeat it following criticism over perceived failure to carry out enough tests particularly on front liners they've been able to carry out some 15,000 tests a day. johnson who is currently isolating after testing positive
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said that ramping up testing in the uk would help the uk return to normal sooner >> what we need to do is massively ramp up tests to know if you had the disease in the past, the anti-body test, which will allow you to go to work with confidence that you won't be infected. second, people need to know that they haven't got it and don't need to isolate for no reason. and it is crucial that the people who do have the disease are able to be tested positive and take the necessary steps to isolate the home in the way that i am doing and many others are doing as well. >> steve is with us from london. steve, when it comes to the uk's
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response, they've clearly done a lot of things well when it comes to managing. but one area they've come up short seems to be testing. give us some sense of what the hold up is and are there concrete steps that they can see and we can trust will get us there. >> there are all kinds of words. especial especial epidemiology and resurgence. they've promised to get to 25,000 per day by the end of the month. let's face it, between them and the nhs, they are not working on the same front
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the reason we are here, is the professor has been right at the center his paper in the middle of march said potentially 1.2 million and 200,000 brits could die if they didn't change the rule he said suppression is the only strategy he works at imperial college right behind me. he said social distancing across europe could slow and may have averted up to 120,000 deaths and up to 12% of populations in europe could have the virus. that is unlikely to be around 2.7% and equates to 1.8 million people these social distancing measures were beginning to have an effect and hopefully plateau on the
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death toll that has gone up dramatically 563 deaths that is the worse figure >> i want to show you london as well that's what we've been trying to do where i am now is the south kensing ton. that is the best place to come if you are a visitor this whole complex a tribute to prince albert. albert topolis is the name you've got the most amazing set of museums, the science museum which many will know, very famous international institution. victoria and albert museum the natural history museum what i can show you is a very
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minimal activity a london taxi going on a few buses and trains a nice bridge there in the south and a solo cyclist one of the great hopes is that infrastructure will come to the rescue infrastructure funds, do they deliver? the answer is yes but it will take a very long time. wel tu'lrern here on "street signs.
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>> the next few days are going to be horrific we'll ensure america has the resources to fight the global pandemic china's comments and immoral action after president trump questions the inaccuracy of coronavirus data >> their numbers seem to be a little on the light side i'm being nice when i say that relative to what we witness and what was reported. carnival is forced to issue stock at $8 a share and produce debt with a staggeringly high coupon we are only one and a half hours into the second day of trade this quarter
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it has already been a volatile time with err seeing green across the regions here at one stage, the stoxx 600 had crossed into negative territory. the dax and the ftse trading lower. in the uk, trading about 0.6% higher leading the way, we have the ftse mib 0.8% into positive territory. investors are cautious we have one key data point the jobless claims numbers calling for even higher amount of americans filing for unemployment than when he saw last week with 3.1 million one of the key features is absolutely the oil markets the price and energy majors. shell more than 8% higher, bp
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more than 5%, rexal more than 4% higher this comes after a rally in the oil price. we've heard a few developments with wti now 8% higher at hundred point, we were looking at gains of 12%. at one point, the energy chiefs from washington saying what is going on at one point, he said saudi arabia and russia could come agreement within days. clearly being welcomed by equity investors in this space. we saw down days across the board. the dow looking at triple-digit rise and s&p looking at
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40-points higher, after all 11 s&p 500 sectors closed higher yesterday. saying the u.s. house is considering an infrastructure bill to be included in the coronavirus stimulus package after the president called for a $2 trillion infrastructure deal to help fight the economic fallout. mnuchin told cnbc with rates at record lows, now is the time for spending >> caller: the president is very interested in infrastructure he wants to rebuild the country. with interest rates low, that is important to him we've been discussing this over the last year with democrats and republicans. we'll continue to have those conversations.
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we expect there will be more bills. it is a great time now to invest in infrastructure. >> we've had very low interest rates for a very long time and it hasn't been time to invest in infrastructure now with these very low rates, if we get real rates of return, that does make the math look more compelling. >> i was going to give you a pop quiz there i'll do it anyway. who said this and when we are going to raise up to a trillion dollars we'll make a fund with low interest rates and rebuild our infrastructure, from the country and the u.s. as well you know who that was? donald trump when did they say it >> 2015, 2016 election campaign.
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>> spot on a ashburn, virginia in 2016. who said he was going to set up infrastructure funds and spend a trillion anyone can promise anything on infrastructure but delivering on it is really hard and takes a long time look at the united kingdom the uk had a five-year plan before coronavirus to spend 640 billion pounds on infrastructure before we hit the big crisis in europe they were already going to spend that money to try to invest on the north, high speed and a whole host of things in order to deliver jobs and prosperity to
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the northern areas my point isn't that the u.s. can't deliver on infrastructure. my point is, a, it costs a lot of money and will take a long time to deliver. i've made the point a number of times. fdr, the crisis we saw 1929 to 1933 was to come uet fall of 1929 what they must remember is that the new deal only came into effect and started kicking in in the u.s. about four years after the stock market crash and it took up to 1939. of course, we saw the horrific events in europe and the world in 1945. it takes a long time, is expensive and easily can go over budget as well let me go to our next guest,
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head of research john luca, it is important to get your view on this. on infrastructure, it takes a hell of a long time with a lot of commitment. >> good morning. i do agree with you when it comes to infrastructure. when it comes to crane, bricks and mortar, it takes a long time listen, the times may be different here we have seen a stimulus come from the u.s. on a stimulus package for covid-19 in times of unprecedented do downturn we won't know this until april because we know congress is in recess at the moment clearly, the indication we have is that we might have for the
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first time, cross party support. not only trump has expressed favorably $2 trillion. and also nancy pelosi, the speaker of the house has expressed favorably saying the infrastructure program may be a corner stone package there may be positives to come supporting the u.s. economy over the next months. in particular, where we could finds an agreement hereof course on the republican side, a strong focus and you have said before on supporting the u.s. shale industry, which is important for the united states. we shouldn't forget that the u.s. has become an export of
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energy and that widely changes the perspective. democrats may try to find an agreement by pushing back in some points that were put quickly away on the green new deal we might see a compromise for renewables or high-speed training we may see positive news to come this may be impacting the debt levels for the u.s. but better this way than other regions. >> i understand your point and optimism about what can happen but when the president controlled the whole of capitol hill, he didn't deliver.
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i'm not here to bush mr. trump, one can say he promised in 2016 a trillion dollar infrastructure fund and it hasn't happened. what makes you think it can happen now >> probably because we are expecting a very deep recession, something very different from the 2016 time. of course, there are questions of how to fund this. structural differences from the points for example on the petro tax the bipartisan support here could make this different from the 2016 environment and clearly
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supporting the economy is important. not only for the republicans but also for the democrats we know that this will take time to go on historically, we have seen from times of dress and in the united states responding quickly. what is needed is a shock of supply and demand. i remain cautiously optimistic here we need to understand what will be supported and how this will be funded. >> what is the right way for this investment to take place. obviously, the uk pioneered pfi and then fell out of love with
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pfi with a lack of funding and benefits is it still appropriate for governments to seek private sector partners for large projects >> in died we were discussing how to fund potentially this program i will say, there is a large amount of capital from private investors that do really like that in europe, we have more of a framework. we have seen those become smaller in size historically we know the similar programs in the u.s. each state has a different pdp framework. there are other ways to crowd in private investment we will take a little bit of time whachlt we want to see is cash flow ability.
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this sector could interest private investors a lot and they could contribute a lot >> thank you for your time this morning. head of infrastructure research at dws bit of news from israel. >> indeed, the prime minister from israel is in self-isolation this comes on the recommendation of his personal physician following the instructions of the ministry of health confirmation that the many insister is in isolation following the diagnosis of his health minister for coronavirus. let's talk about the cruise industry australia has banned cruise liners from docking on its shores after 20% of the nation's
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cases were linked to the ship. the ban follows the outcry after hundreds were able to disembark from a carnival cruise and then tested positive for covid-19 >> the company is still deemed investment grade worthy issued new stock at $8 a share and issued $500 million. the firm offered bonds at $11.5% only the riskiest junk bonds would have been issued at this price point. softbank pulls the $3 billion offer off of wework.
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all on the most reliable wireless network. which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. plus, get $300 off when you buy a new samsung galaxy s20 ultra. that's simple. easy. awesome. go to xfinitymobile.com today.
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welcome back the number of deaths related to coronavirus in new york city has risen to nearly 1,400 as the city struggles with a shortage of supplies. playgrounds will close but parks will remain open as long as people exercise social distancing i'll bring in our guest. professor from nyu talk to me about the research you are conducting with ai and how you you are going to help in the pandemic what can you do? >> thank you let me give you a little background this is an ongoing work that started in mid-january
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it is led by experts across nyu and partnerships with two hospitals in china our goal was to deploy a tool using artificial intelligence capability in order to flag future clinical coronavirus severity our goal was to look at historical data we got from two chinese hospitals to see if we could predict severe cases we hope when the tool is fully deployed to two hospitals to patients who need beds and can go hope safely we believe flagging severe cases could lower emergency visits especially when you are able to determine whether a patient is likely able to get worse in a
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way that you could help. >> professor, this is fascinating. what you you are looking at is different to what doctors have been looking at. looking at the lungs and patterns you are looking at deliver elements liver enzymes and deep muscle aches and related to tobacco use. why are these key? >> that's right. a clinish yan who works with us and the whole team were surprised to see this result this was based on the data we received from china. we still need to do further evaluations. the combination of deep muscle aches, the increase of live
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enzymes and could be signs of a severe development more severe symptoms could begin within five to eight days. what we found based on historical data, this is looked at from patients and clinical character islamaphobi characteristics with these three together are strong indicators of somebody who will develop a severe case. the first was an increase of liver emzymes, the second was deep muscle aches and third the high level of hemogloben
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looking at the character islamaphobi put together will lead to a severe case. >> what do you need to get over regulatory hurdles >> we have the tools that can do the data collection, cleaning and build the algorithms what we need now is basically collaboration with hospitals across the world to see if we could get more data sets and have the ai learn. maybe we could get better or different results. for now, we need to ee jvaluate this in hospitals.
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this is a unique way to look at things from a different perspective. you are trying to give support tools to the doctors where they might not have the time to look at several spread sheets of data where they could quickly look at it based on experience, this is what we see in this case >> thank you for all the work you are doing. best of luck professor from the computer sciences department at nyu we are in for a positive start to trade today that is it for us. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> and i'm geoff cutmore "worldwide exchange" is up next. shouldn't you pay less when you use less data? now you can.
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braking news stocks looking to rebound. the dow shedding nearly 1,000 points president trump considering halting domestic flights between certain coronavirus hot spots as the coronavirus outbreak hits a new and grim milestone we'll get the latest of unemployment numbers one sector reelgally hard hit is
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