thank you so much for spending time with us this morning. appreciate it, and hope to talk to you again very soon >> thanks, andrew. >> okay. andrew, joe, i will see you guys back here tomorrow thank you, everybody, for joining us today cnbc's special coverage continues right now. >> good thursday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber coming to you live we're coming off the worst day in about two weeks futures do trim their gains as jobless claims come in 6.6 million. a staggering record, beyond precedent. there's plenty to watch, including boeing, disney, zoom, starbucks, and oil, jim, which was set for its best day in about three weeks on the president's comments about the russians and had saudis. i know you were discussing that a couple moments ago >> look, i think there's a sense that somehow you get a bunch of oil executives with the president, the president then calls saudi arabia and calls the russians and says let's stop

this of course, the saudis are flooding the world with oil right now. the russians, it's not clear where the heck they are because they're very secretive, but i know who is not there, the drivers. there's very little demand david and i talk about this with you all the time, carl there's this overall sense, you know what, if we just get things moving, things will come back again. we need customers. we need customers to get their hair cut, to go to the dry cleaner, the restaurants, and we need customers on the road without them, i really don't care what president calls who, you need a tariff to keep the -- to keep the saudi oil from coming here, and you need the chinese to restockpile, and frankly, that's still not going to be enough to be able to make it so oil real demand goes higher >> good point -- >> yeah. sorry, carl. 6 million barrels a day, jim, is what i'm hearing right now as we still try to adjust. even know we know each other's

cadences so well 6 million barrels a day here and it's not just -- not just cars, jim. it's jet fuel, too let's not forget that is also not being consumed anywhere near the way it had been 24 million barrels a day right now of oversupply in the global market you know, russia and saudi can do all they want, they can go to zero and it still sounds like we'll have an issue. >> this is what is amazing there is no spigot to oil. they used to tell me, look, the one thing that oil producers know to do is produce oil. we are still doing 13 million, 13 million barrels a day here. nobody has throttled back. so think about that. we're almost out of supply this is why i continue to believe that those who buy s&p futures off of oil futures are doomed to lose money and that's what's happening right now. >> yeah, jim credit suisse has a great list out this morning with s&p companies with the most cash,

which is largely fang, no surprise, and the least. and the least is exxon, kinder, noble, diamondback along with american carnival. >> exxon >> and all that leverage is coming home to roost >> exxon borrowed money to pay that dividend. the only company i think has the ability and wherewithal to pay the dividend is mike worth and chevron, and that's because he didn't win the anadarko bidding. david, how was that in the end how did thad work at anadarko? >> we know how it worked >> stop it, just play with me. >> you were right. of course, and recognizing the enormous risk that oxy toon on in paying that big price for anadarko the permian assets are still seen as being worth something. there is going to be a sale anytime soon from what i hear may be quite some time, but what you're talking about, jim, is a fundamental deterioration in this business, the likes of

which we have not seen in a very -- maybe ever >> ever. >> and they're going to run out of places to put the oil i mean, cushing is already running out. i'm looking in terms of how much was left there >> look, there's still some reserve in cushing, from people who believe oil is going to go to the$5 to $10. permian at $10 a lot of oil, it can't even be produced anymore because the prices -- you're talking about $35, $40 one of the reasons i mentioned oxy is it looks like they need about $34, $35 to do well. yesterday was whiting's day. by the way, one of the worst performers in the s&p in the first quarter was diamondback. noble was really bad it's extraordinary that devon, at one time such a responsible company, so overreached, apache, apache used to have these tremendous international assets. they doubled down for alpine

high, thinking it was oil in the western part of the permian. it turns out to be natural gas the mexicans didn't want it. bingo, they write it off that's how you get apa at bad. >> jim, in terms of the broader market, how are you handling this bipolar nature where some mornings we come in here, we're talking about vaccine trials, we're talking about therapeutics, testing, diagnostics, and other days it's obviously a jobless claims today is a number that's just hard to look at. >> we balance these things, don't we you stop, last night, someone said to me, i said dr. fauci, he seemed incrementally more positive look, you can do what you want you can listen to cuomo and the ventilators. i'm still trying to double check that so few people live without them you can follow every single hand signal of fauci is right behind trump where you can't see him, or you can focus on the companies themselves most companies are beginning to

suspend their guidance because they have no idea how they're doing. you have to say, who has a good balance sheetd because the good balance sheets are going to come out the other side oliver chen, one of my favorite analysts is starting to talk will gap make it, will nordstrom make it? will macy's make it? why? what do they all have in common? balance sheets we don't want to necessarily have at home if we're someone at home trying to pay our bills. >> when you don't have real customers coming into stores because many are shuttered at this point, it does make life difficult as a retailer, guys. what i continue to also hear, again, for us to be focused on is another area of concern, is those retailers not paying rent to their landlords >> right >> and the impact that's having, certainly on the commercial mortgage-backed security market, which is the debt backing up any number of those landlords or securitized. not to mention the impact on the reits themselves we talked about it many times, the idea that you're going to

need forbearance all the way up because along the way, somebody gets hurt. there are so many paths that have been created as a result of this crisis that you have to keep going down to understand what the true implication is going to be. whether it is something like real estate, whether it is something like obviously oil and gas and where that goes or even something like, guys, the media business, which you know i follow closely the fact that you have all these networks out there, for example, that aren't programming any live sports because there is no live sports and what's happening there if the cable companies say, hey, we don't want to pay for your very expensive service, mr. espn or mr. sny or msg, and then they have to go to the teams to get recompense the path all leads off places we're trying to understand >> it's so hard to try to figure out the ramifications. i spent so much time saying, okay, let's say someone doesn't go to gap stores, does that mean gap stores then default or does that mean that one of these reits then makes a deal with gap and they stay in, but their

numbers go down? what happened to tanger factory outlet when you talk to pvh last night like i did and their stores close who ultimately owns the debt then you have bankers who come on the show and it seems like tlar kind of insulated but are they really? is secretary mnuchin lining up a credit line with the fed all i can tell you is if you try to unwind these, it's almost easier to unwind some of those incredibly difficult mortgages we had in 2007-2009 than it is to try to figure out who is on the hook for gap stores if they don't pay or cheesecake factory, david. that's a restaurant, david, a very big menni, and you have a lot of calories. i want to fill you in on what these companies do cheesecake, they actually have dinners. but boy, they stopped paying check please no >> yeah, jim there's so much news in retail you talked to manny, which we'll hear in a moment

amazon says it's filled almost all of the 100,000 jobs it announced last month ross stores is cutting, furloughing. you have macy's being kicked out of the s&p, and then of course, you talked to pvh last night, manny tirico, who himself has tested positive. take a listen. >> i think we have a tremendous amount of capability to weather the storm, but no retailer, no apparel retailer is built to be shut down. and that's what we basically are right now. we have our online business, it's doing really well, but our stores in north america, europe, asia, and brazil are closed down because the government's made the right decision >> unbelievable. >> jim, his staff is trying to manage inventory from home he himself is being isolated from his folks it is hitting everybody in different ways >> and how did he get discovered that he had it he went to mont afure hospital

why? because he's on the board. what was he doing? bringing an order he had put together from pvh for gowns, for masks, because that's what we're short of this is the kind of american hero that we're dealing with who doesn't even know how to be a hero, doesn't even know that, yes, he got sick, he's at home he's still working and what's he doing? he's trying to bring the so-called ppe that we keep talking about to mont afure hospital, working so hard, trying to meet all the patients. i'm not from the bronx they are a very nonpromoentional hero, but manny is a hero. we're going to see a lot of business people who come out unlike 2007-2009 as being the people who really did a great job through this pandemic. >> and you know, guys, a lot of those people also, and this is, i don't know, jim, what your conversations are like with people in the business world, but they are already trying to

look beyond the current crisis, to hopefully what is a day that is not that far away, where we are -- have contained the virus and potentially don't have to be as concerned about it as we are right now. but how behaviors are going to change how those companies need to change in order to meet the changing behaviors of consumers that are going to be with us for years to come. >> david, we're very lucky >> we talk and think about the workplace a lot. sorry, jim >> we have the very best person to ask about the change. and that is the ceo of mccormick, because you know what when these people are at home and everyone is working at home, they have to eat they have to snack they have to do something. i'm not telling you to go for a cup of luckin coffee, but stay here and listen to this. that's a good tease for david. lawrence, it is so great to see you. you're the man of the hour because we're all eating at home all these businesses have everybody at home.

is consumer behavior changing, and will it ever be the same >> hey, jim. good morning it'sigate to be here with you. and listening to the comments you had about some of the other industries, it makes me glad to be in the one i'm in before i go to your question, i have to say right up front, i want to first express our deepest simp aethds to all those affected by covid-19 and thank those on the front line keeping people safe through this crisis. you know, our fundamentals are really solid and consumers want flavor. they want great taste. it doesn't matter if they're cooped up at home. they're still going to want delicious foods that taste good, and we're there to provide them with those flavor solutions. >> so let's try to figure out the mosaic you have. you have a very big at-home business, but you also have a food service business, which is being hurt, obviously, because the institutions that you serve are not doing as well. then you also have -- you have a business basically where people

just, well, let's put it this way, you're manufacturing food and nobody can use it. i'm talking about something like you have in europe but it looks to me that all of those industrial so-called businesses are less than 25% and the consumer business, which has historically done terrifically in a recession, could be the star for a long time tell us about march and tell us about the numbers you're seeing, which frankly, are incredible. >> yeah, there are two cross currents at work here. on the consumer side of our business, which away from home, impacts about 80% of our total company business, that part is just on fire right now in march. through the first part of march, the measured sales through stores are up over 75% which is just incredible in a business where single-digit gains are considered exciting. and some of the stuff that's taking off really reflects the fact that people are cooped up they want things to cook for

their kids for lunch, things, ingredients that are used in activities you wouldn't believe the number of requests we have gotten for recipes for slime and window stickers our recipe mixes are up over 100% it's a staggering thing. >> it's funny because it seems like that people have decided, when they stay at home, they not only have lunch, they snack all day, which also plays to you i'm thinking these are the new way that we handle our day, and mccormick is integral to it, which is why it's so hard for you to keep your stuff on the shelves in the supermarkets. >> it even goes beyond the shelves, jim, because on our business-to-business side, we make most of the seasonings for the snack industry, so you know, that snacking behavior at home goes straight to our product we like to say whether you know it or not, you probably have eaten something flavored by

mccormick today. >> now, the last quarter was a complicated one. and i thought you explained it very well in your conference call people didn't realize how big a china business you had developed and where it was really headquartered. and it did hurt your numbers, but it sounded like it's coming back tell us about your wuhan experience >> you know, jim, when i last spoke with you, it was in january. and this whole situation was just starting in china and you know, we talked then about the priority being the health and safety of employees and quality and integrity of our product. we have three plants in china. one at wuhan at ground zero. we have lived all phases of this crisis you know, our china business is coming back. all of our facilities are open people are back at work or operating normally the demand for the retail products, the brands that consumers here in the u.s. would recognize, are on the shelf over

there. it's through the roof. food service is coming back slowly, though the quickservice restaurants and food service restaurants, regular food service restaurants are open largely, but customer traffic is building it's going to take a while for that to rebuild. >> what happens? you have 118 facilities. you have more than 40 manufacturing factories, but you have that one in europe that's gigantic can you make something else there? because i know that -- it just seems your company is so committed to communities you have always been a community person, obviously, talking baltimore here, but in europe, what can you do with that factory to keep people busy, get people jobs even in the interim? >> well, you know, i think that what you're thinking of is, we have a large continent factory in the uk that supplies the quick service restaurant industry you know, right now, there's not a lot of demand from that part of the industry.

we think there's a temporary phenomena. so even though the plant is not running production, those employees are still being paid you know, we have a long history as a company of having a long hch term perspective on our people as assets and not cost. we know this is a temporary situation that we're going to come through and we're taking care of those people and the rest of the world, we are pretty much able to repurpose just about anything that's targeted towards that food service sector, back toward retail products. we're even taking our food service production and supplying club store packs >> and one thing i want to compliment you, because this acquisition, obviously, that people were second guessing of your hot sauce, of frank's, i have to tell you, lawrence, i was on amazon for a five-ounce

bottle of old bay hot sauce, $39. seven-day wait and it's a third party is there any way for you to be able to meet the demand for what i think is probably the most successful product in history? >> i promise you, we're not the ones price gouging on that one and the old bay hot sauce has become a little bit of a collector's item we'll definitely ramp that up. but to your point about that acquisition, frank's red hot is through the roof it's up well over 100% in march, as consumers are stocking their pantries, and even french's mustard is up over 100%. so this is a great time to be in those businesses >> lawrence, so i bring it home. i have three bottles my wife doesn't know it's like fine wine. this is like nappy, and she just puts it on everything, and it's empty. she's going through all three bottles. she had no idea she was pouring something that was worth so

much, so please make more. >> well, thanks, jim we'll definitely do that but look, i want to make sure that everybody knows that we're really focused on the safety and health of our employees and making sure that the quality and integrity of our products stands the test of time we have two principles that we stand by at all times. one is the power of people the other is the taste you trust. we're not taking any shortcuts during this time we know food supply is critical. we have got some real heroes working in our plants and our distribution centers to keep america and the world in supply of our brands and our customers' brands for whom we're supplying ingredients. we're really committed to that >> lawrence, we want to thank you so much, ceo of mccormick's. you buy that stock i found french's mustard for $1.79 at walmart i couldn't believe it. thank you for being on the show.

back to you, carl. >> all right, jim. great interview. thanks very much we're getting some q1 numbers out of ford. we'll turn to phil lebeau. good morning, phil >> good morning. ford q1 sales in the u.s. coming in better than expected. still a decline like the rest of the industry hit hard by coronavirus shutdowns meaning people aren't going to dealerships so the dealers aren't buying new vehicles a decline of 12.5% for the first quarter. again, that was better than the expected decline edmonds had it falling 14.1% last night, we got the official sales rate for had first quarter. it was coming in at its lowest pace, a little over 15 million since 200012, but the monthly sales rate for march, the one getting a lot of headlines today, the worst since april of 2010, coming in at 11.35 million vehicles, as a sales pace for the month. and it will be bad in april as well guys, back to you. >> all right, phil, thank you very much.

jim, for march, month on month, you're looking of declines, i have seen two numbers. 27 and 35 this morning >> these numbers are staggering. staggering because there's a big change we were talking about it with david just a second ago, the chain of mortgages and who owns what and who's going to go bad the companies, ford is a huge assembler. the companies that get hurt by ford's numbers are incredible. and ford, talk about companies' whose talk price i don't like in terms of where it's headed it has that macy's feel. this is ford i mean, the one that didn't need aid during the 2007-2009 downturn let's hope their sales rebound because those numbers are just not sustainable. hey, david how is that luckin doing >> let's talk luckin because it is, obviously, in this incredible torrential downpour of news, it may be not that significant, but it doesn't

help luckin coffee, you may recall when they went public at the new york stock exchange. by the way, jim, a lot of things you have been talking about for some time have been proved correct. one here is certainly the lack of transparency you have always pointed to >> like the fact i said their numbers were phony and you were furious at me >> yeah, i mean, it's really hard for me. i can't pat you on the back from here anyway. >> don't want you touching me. >> or a warning about corona long before other people were taking it quite as seriously but on this one, let's just get to the news because the shares are stunning down some 80% plus after the company identified -- i did the currency conversion, about $310 million, what they're talking about, in fabricated transactions that took place between the second quarter and the fourth quarter of 2019 they have set up an independent special committee to oversee the internal probe of these audit issues they have accepted the recommendation to suspend

certain senior members of management as a result so far of what they have seen. and they say they're going to take all appropriate actions and things of that nature. you might imagine this is going to take a blow to many of the chinese listed companies that we have seen really in a procession that was never ending at the new york stock exchange, and luckin, a competitor to starbucks, jim, and perhaps their beneficiary here >> they were telling me there's no way that luckin could do those numbers. they were saying, that's not possible that's like every single person in china having five cups of coffee they were so wise to these guys. oh, my what a bunch of hose bags. >> yeah, and there were people who were short the stock also a number of significant hedge funds that we know well that were very much proponents of luckin, carl, which again, is going to just be shockingly lower this morning

not for -- for good reason, given all their numbers are now in question. >> perfect >> yeah. meanwhile, starbucks is extending the closure of their u.s. dining to may 3rd probably not a surprise given how the shelter in places have evolved over time. we want to get to wilfred frost who has newed on jamie dimon >> hey, yes, indeed. so good news jamie dimon, the chairman and ceo of jpmorgan, is back at work albeit, working remotely like a large portion of the companies as opposed to temporarily handing over the reins to his presidents and coos. he had a message, saying my hope goes out to all of the individuals and families most affected by covid-19 there were some thanks in there for his workers who he said are working hard to protect their fellow citizens while working to support the financial system, and he expressed his pride in

them now, specifically, on the bank and what it's doing at the moment, he said as one of the world's largest financial institutions, our actions are critical to keep the global economy going. from processing $6 trillion in corporate payments each day, worldwide keeping more than 3,900 of our branches open to meet individuals' financial needs. he said the countries and citizens of the global community will get through this unprecedented situation, but it does serve as a vivid reminder that we all live on one planned. he said jpmorgan chase will play its critical part in helping the world recover. our extraordinary opportunity to prepare us for difficult times like this. we will rise to the challenge. he also said, quote, i want to thank you all for your sweet well wishes you sent my way after my emergency surgery he said i have been recuperating well, getting stronger every day. i'm happy to be back at work this week. so that's from jamie dimon, chairman and ceo of jpmorgan that's, of course, good to hear he's back and healthy and i'm

sure many shareholders of jpmorgan and frankly of other banks as well will be pleased to know he's back at his desk, albeit his desk at home, guys. >> i think it's important, there was a time when he came in and bought a lot of stock. i know that's probably the last thing he does when he just gets back to work, but one thing we have really been missing since there's no buybacks allowed, bankers coming in and buying their stock, and i wonder whether they think it is a buy or more importantly whether they think someone is going to pressure them to get rid of their dividends and therefore they can go even lower a buy of stock here by jamie would be incredibly significant, the fact he called the bottom last time around any sense on whether he is focused on that as all >> not at the moment, jim. no i mean, interestingly, on the company dividends, both mike corback and james gorman to me confirmed they won't be canceling those, which is, i guess, a small step. i couldn't agree more. personal purchases by executives

would be a vuj vote of confidence, as you alluded to, charlie sharp has done that. for the other banks, they're in a quiet period earnings begin april 14th. that will be a huge moment, not just because, of course, it may provide an opportunity for some of these guys to buy stock of course, even if they're thinking about t they won't be able to tell us that until april 14 and but the earnings season will be really interesting, guys, because we may hear a sizable amount of write downs because of potential risks of nonperforming loans, but that number, you know, may be smaller than some people fear. we'll have to wait now until we get to earnings for the granular numbers, whether it's stock buybacks or earnings and write downs. but i feel like the tone from mike corback yesterday, from james gorman yesterday, and we'll listen to david solomon, was relatively encouraging relative to the share price we have seen in the banks jim, you brought it up with

citi, down 50% that paints a dire scenario. the tone is a bit better than that back to you guys >> all right wilf, good stuff great with gorman yesterday. we had corback yesterday as well and we'll talk to david solomon in a few moments jim, about leverage ratios and dividends and what goldman in their bank note this morning is called the, quote, burned down book value metric, which as wilf suggests, maybe things aren't quite as bad as the dire scenarios. >> we haven't heard from a lot of the bankers and that's good because the fact they're coming on and telling a story is very different from the old days in 2007-2009 where a lot of bankers were hiding. i know that jpmorgan always felt if you had to talk about it, obviously, you didn't have credit, but i think this is different. i think that interview was great yesterday. i hope we deliver on solomon, and i'm hoping charlie scharff comes on i know he's a new guy, but

you're starting to hear that it's different this time in the sense they do have capital and don't confuse them with europe we know a lot of people drew down their revolvers and that could be painful, but when you look at what happens to europe, they never recapitalized europe is being revealed as the sham that a lot of us thought they were, and i like the fact that even if there is any chance that we get an antiviral, if there's any chance that some of the things we hear anecdotally are working to get people out of the hospital, any chance we bend the curve, then this group, which has been an unbelievable bear market, would be attractive i don't think it's attractive yet. you and i both know there are hidden things in every bank that neither of us have thought about that come back to haunt every time, but do you think it's going to be different than 2007-2009? >> i do, and we made that point a number of times. we do know the banks are varbetter capitalized. we know they have taken a great deal less risk over this period.

but your point is a good one, jim, and it's not lost on me, certainly, because i have made this point so many times you could have looked at all of the filings of merrill lynch and never had a clue -- never had a clue what they were really doing in terms of the risks they were taking on in their portfolio of ceos and other mortgage connected securitizations. so let's keep an eye on that as we listen to an opening bell here, of course, and get started with trading this morning. let's keep an eye on something we have been talking about a lot, jim, which is the cmbx, the cmbs portfolios, the lending to real estate, the lending to energy it doesn't mean by any means that these banks are not going to face a difficult time but certainly one expects that they are in a far better position than they were in 2006 and 2007 heading into, of course, the financial crisis back then. >> the 2016 drop in oil that took february to $26 scared a lot of ceos in the oil patch and they really kind of fled from

it i'm trying to figure out where the money is we have not talked at all about private equity which i think we may discover is more of an achilles heel than we realize. private equity was down there in the permian spending like crazy, and david, you have insight to private equity i don't have, and i just want to know, are they doing as well as they keep telling me are they still kings or are they suicide kings? >> listen, i think in any portfolio, there are huge problems that they're focused on there's no doubt if you're a large private equity firm, you're going to have your share of difficulties. by the way, it doesn't eve mean it's an energy it could mean anything consumer-related at this point where you'll have a tough time that said, jim, they're also sitting on top of a lot of cash for many of the private equity firms. if there's a deal out there they were relying on bank financing for, thinking about, they're not going to do it, but what they're focused on, i think, is so many

companies in distress and a real opportunity to move into their high-yield bonds and get returns of which you would not have seen previously unless you were doing a full deal, or providing ecwouldy in some fashion, again, ala warren buffett like numbers where you can get an enormous return it's a mixed picture private equity certainly is going to have holes in their por portfolio and real opportunity as well. >> there's a human side that comes back you get these ceos and you think how are they doing you have, say, this morning, the government, ftc going after altria and jewel and you remember, wait a second, we have a prominent ceo who has got covid. howard willard, manny yesterday. we have a lot of people, a lot of prominent ceos who are symptomatic. it's so different. it isn't just, geez, how is that company doing?

it's how is that ceo doing this is a new world. >> i know. boris johnson apparently still expressing mild symptoms netanyahu, i'm sure you saw, telling nbc news he's self-isolating jeff shell, our own ceo at nbcuniversal so your point is a good one. i did want to ask you with this relatively flat open, i know you don't like bond guys opining on stocks, but gumlack did say yesterday, i'm indifferent between 19k and 22k on the dow, because the gap, in his words, is really just the bit ask spread bond traders understand this from experience. how much latitude -- how much latitude are you on equities, at least on the dow >> i like where jeff is, there's no distance between me and jeff. we go back and forth, and he's quite a gentleman. i still expected to get the reit test i expect any market that is driven by the price of oil is going to be wrong-headed it should be driven by earnings.

right now, there's this big dichotomy between companies demonstrating good earnings power and companies saying we're not going to talk about irnings anymore. i'm waiting to see companies say we pulled guide ps the day we see you pull guidance and nobody cares is the day when we start thinking about after covid, this is what could happen the after covid quotient isn't with us because we expect it to sweep the snagz, but if you get any bending in the curve, we'll say, what was that guy you suspended? but maybe it's better, and i think the most prominent one is disney i mean, disney -- >> i was just going to say that. >> right it's firing on no cylinders. >> yeah, we have conflicting calls today. david, you probably saw this atlantic says the negative price action is overdone they go to overweight. guggenheim cuts the target from 160 to 100 because they think the closures -- there's a good chance we could look at longer

park closures than we think right now. >> parks are very important. we know that, right? almost 40%, i think. so not insignificant and again, back to the theme that we certainly talk about and will be talking about a lot more how will behavior change will people be willing to congregate in the same way they did previously will it take time for that to come back, even when the parks and everything else reopens, i think is a key question. let's not forget, espn, an important contributor as well to that company, right now, i mean, they're airing stone skipping. and there's a question, certainly, as to whether or not the cable operators are willing to pay or whether they see an opportunity to potentially return money to their subscribers in some fashion. so there are plenty of pressure points, studios closed right now, they're not making new productions. at the same time, of course, everybody is homestreaming disney plus, an incredible start. and most likely great deal of momentum that's been created there.

guys, we were talking earlier with wilf about jamie dimon being back at work james gorman joining wilf yesterday from morgan stanley, and we had so many notables here as well. very happy as well that this morning we're now joined by david solomon, of course, the ceo of goldman sachs who joins us from the company's headquarters where i would assume it's a fairly lonely place. david, it's great to have you this morning thank you for being with us. >> good morning, guys. and thank you. thank you for having me, and it is relatively quiet here at 200 west we have about 98% of our employees working from home, working remotely, but there are some people who do have to be in the building to move money and for processes, so i have been making my center of operations from here. there are other people in the building i feel like i should be here, and it's certainly a very safe place to operate with so few people in the building >> yeah. we are following similar

protocols at cnbc. david, so much to ask you about, but let me just start off, broadly speaking, in terms of how you're viewing risk right now at goldman sachs a company that has been known, of course, for managing risk better than perhaps any of your peers. what is right now a real focus for you at goldman sachs in terms of what represents the biggest risk is it perhaps the cnbs markets, real estate, private equity? i don't know, but i'm curious as to where your focus is >> when you have a change, when you have a change in the comek environment, especially one that's happening as swiftly as this change has happened, it creates a real change in the perception of the risks that we all hold across all asset classes, so one of the things that we have been trying to to with our clients across banking, market clients, asset management clients, is be in a position to talk to them about how they can

manag manage, pare risks, think about risks on an ongoing basis. one thing that makes this difficult is the uncertainty that exists. it's very easy to think about the direction of things when it's easier to plot a course and obviously here, the uncertainty is very high, so we have been advising clients, and we thought about this ourselves. you have to be very, very prudent and thoughtful about the risks you're taking. and try to weight and evaluate and understand how confidence will reoccur and how we'll ultimately get the economy going again. >> yeah, i would assume one thing you're advising is i hear from so many other bankers is if you have an opportunity to raise cash, you probably should do it. do you agree with that are you seeing a lot of your companies trying to increase liquidity, certainly those that are investment grade, hitting the capital markets? >> no question, if you're running a company, and my discussions with ceos running companies, one of the risk management perspectives at every company, every business, even

small businesses, has to focus on is do i have enough liquidity to weather the economic environment we're faced with so certainly, if you have an opportunity to increase your liquidity, to access the markets, to work with banks, to access liquidity, it's very important that you reunderwrite your plan and have adequate liquidity to weather through this we will get to the other side of this, but you have to be in a position where you have adequate liquidity. we're spending a lot of time with clients helping them. as you referenced, david, the investment grade market opened up quite strong over the course of the last two weeks. i think you have heard this from a number of guests record issuance last week. record issuance for the month, record issuance for the quarter. so high-grade companies have had access but one of the things now that's going to be important is to try to provide opportunities for other companies that are below investment grade, for smaller businesses to have access for capital, and that's something we're very, very focused on. >> david, you mentioned, of

course, getting to the other side of this goldman has always been fairly good at adapting to changing positions. i can recall in 2009 after the financial crisis, the company had i think what still stands as your record year of $13.4 billion in profits what are you doing right now to position the company for what you believe will be certainly a changed environment once we're past the coronavirus >> well, i think there's going to be a lot of discussion coming out of this crisis as there is coming out of any crisis as to what has to change, what adapts in society, how we change in society, so more people can participate, how things can be better what can we learn from this? there will be a lot of that. for us at the moment, we're extremely focused in a different environment where people are working from home, how do we serve our clients? how do we make sure that we can show up for our clients and help them at this difficult time? and also, because this is such a humanitarian crisis, how can we as an organization be helping those in need?

how can we find ways to support those that are vulnerable and underserved. at the moment, we're focused on our people, we're focused on our clients, and we're focused on helping those that need. i think there's plenty to do on those three things and there will be plenty of time when we come out of this to focus on the way we and all other businesses will need to evolve. >> david, i know you have had people there, of course, giving the ability you have to analyze things analyzing the virus, trying to understand the progression, the spread what are your best guesses in terms of when we will get to the other side of this we're obviously in the midst right now of unprecedented conditions this unemployment claims number we got an hour or so ago was truly just shocking in so many ways, and many are preparing for what they believe will be a very deep recession what are your views on that and on how quickly we're going to come out of this >> so, i'm obviously not a medical experts, although i find myself talking to lots of

medical experts, and i think it's important, you know, to listen and to try to learn andy uncertain, so dwlii think it's hard to predict. i do personally think we will move forward as we continue to build more confidence around our health care resources, so i think it's very, very important that the focus that's now on improving our health care resources throughout the country, so we can help people in need right now, it's super important. testing is very, very important. there are a lot of advances in testing that are coming very, very quickly, but creating better access to testing, which creates better information and better data. these are the things, the underpinning of the health care services we're providing that will allow us to build confidence and then ultimately as that confidence is built and we have a better understanding of the trajectory of the virus, it will give us the opportunity to start to slowly open up parts of the economy to find ways to have people back participating safely so that we

start to get things going again. you know, there's no question, david, that we were late to this we were slow to adapt. but i really see now lots of focus. i see focus from government. i see enormous focus from the private seconder, and i know with the resources we have, the ingenuity we have, the creativity, i'm very optimistic that we'll make progress it's hard to predict, but i'm optimistic we'll make progress and start to plot a path forward in the coming weeks. >> david, it's jim >> hi, jim >> how are you doing >> i'm good. how are you? >>alist time i saw you was super bowl weekend, i think it was the last weekend we'll ever remember - >> it seems like a long time ago, and i'm glad you can see me because i can't see you. >> i wanted to ask you, look, full disclosure, i worked at goldman and it's a huge position in my travel trust you announced a stunningly big dividend hike last summer. can you tell me whether that's now under reevaluation

or can you reaffirm your commitment to the evaluation >> sure, jim when we announced our dividend hike last summer, you know this and you'll recognize this, we were in a place where our dividend as a portion of our return of capital was out of sync with the rest of the industry was we were much lower and had always relied very, very heavily, almost entirely, on share repurchases, our form of capital return we thought there needed to be more of a balance and so we brought our dividend up so it was closer to but not quite where the rest of our peer group would be you know, i think the discussion about dividend right now is a discussion about capital return, and one of the things i know you saw because as an industry, the banking industry wants to be in a position to lend, to provide liquidity, to support our clients. the group of large banks made a collective decision to stop our capital return through buybacks

route now, which is a significant portion of our capital return i know dividends are getting a lot of attention because over in europe there's been quite a bit of attention, and european banks are in a different place than u.s. banks, and european banks also have dividend which is paid once a year is the vast majority of their capital return and a very, very significant part of their earnings here in the united states, it's a much smaller part of capital return we have as an industry stopped a large portion of the capital return it's my expectation we'll pay our dividend return. >> the goldman i know, the commitment to the employees was extraordinary. can you take a pledge that you won't lay anything off in the next three months? >> i have been very clear to our people that during our crisis, people's jobs are safe we're incredibly focused, jim, on our employees and our community, we're trying to find ways to add support that we're giving we made an announcement earlier

this week that we're increasing the amount of emergency home leave to two weeks that people can take people have parents or family members, they need emergency home leave so we have increased that. i have been personally focused on the fact there are all sorts of people in our goldman community that might need support. we have people that are security guards that work for us that work in the cafeteria and food service, that work in cleaning these are people that are goldman employees but they're part of the goldman family and community, and we're working with the vendors and the unions to make sure that because of what's going on, their incomes have been affected, we're making up the difference. so we care deeply about our employees, and we're very, very focused on their safety, their security, and their wellbeing during this crisis >> david, it's carl. >> hi, carl. >> you rolled out a plan -- >> good to see you a plan to give aid to small business $300 million, act as a

complement to the federal program. there's a report out of reuters that some banks are nervous in participating in the program for fear of legal risk, financial risk what are you telling small businesses about the opportunity to get loans and how to navigate what is going to be an enormous amount of red tape >> sure, first, we have been very focused on small businesses at goldman sachs for quite some time because we think small businesses are such an important part of the overall economy. i think you're all aware of our 10,000 small business program, which has given us great insight into small businesses for a number of years, over the course of the last decade i participated earlier this week in what i call a town hall session where we had 1500 of those small businesses on a conference call with myself and senators cardin and rubio, who as i think you know, lead the small business subcommittee that was very, very involved in the small business provisions that are in this bill

this bill obviously provides $350 billion, which i know we all want to get quickly into small businesses that need help, that need support. and we're committed to doing that a lot of small businesses will access that through their existing banks they'll go to their existing banks where they have checking or they have a relationship. we have always been focused on community development financial institutions which are kind of a layer below banks that in particular serve small businesses that might not have the same access to the banking system and more vulnerable communities, we have supported these cdfis for a long, long time as a part of our effort to participate in this and get capital to these smaller businesses quickly, especially in these more vulnerable areas where they might not be as connected to the banking system, we pledged in that pledge $25 million that will go to supporting the infrastructure around cdfis, to give cdfis the

opportunity to ramp up quickly and get more money deployed, and in addition, we pledged $250 million of our balance sheet that can be deployed through these cdfis to small business. from our perspective, we're excited to play our role in helping get our capital and our balance sheet deployed out to these small businesses that are in such need right now and so that's a focus, and we have been working hard at that >> david, you also have insight into the consumer now that i think you might not have had as an institution not that long ago, given your efforts in retail, marcus is a name we know at this point as part of that. what are you seeing on that front in terms of balances, in terms of need on the credit side and what are your expectations there for that business given this economic turmoil? >> sure. we obviously are focused on our marcus platform and our consumer business i would start by saying, and i

know you all recognize this, it's still a relatively small business when you think about the big consumer businesses that are out there. but i think for one, on the deposit side, we offer a very, very attractive offering right now, an overnight government guaranteed deposit on marcus a cd is 1.8 5. what we're seeing because people have cash, we've seen during the course of the last few weeks, people coming to marcus at an increased pace we've seen our deposit flows have increased in marcus because we think we have a compelling offering on the lending side and our credit card business, we're certainly seeing change in behavior very quickly. through the credit card we have insight. as you would expect, spending particularly around travel and leisure and restaurants and being out in entertainment has plummeted but you've seen some

pick up in spending on staples, food services, those kinds of things obviously given the pressure that's on everyday individuals, because of this crisis, there will be pressure on those businesses and one of the things we're focussed on is helping consumers. we have a program where people can opt in to defer their interest payments on their marcus loans or credit card loans and it's simple. you just text to marcus or apple card and you can defer your interest at this point in time your interest in payments. so we're very small in that space, but we're trying to do our part, and we're watching it quickly. it's very early to see big patterns with our small dayta set. >> you mention add the top of the interview,98% of your employees are not working from your head quartersor are working remotely or from home. once we get through this, is that going to become more the norm are you expecting significant

changes in work behavior and how would you approach it at goldman sachs? >> the first thing i have to say is i'm so proud of our people at goldman sachs. if you had told me even a couple months ago that we would have 98% of our employees working remotely and we'd be able to serve our clients, take care of our people, participate in the economic system, play our role as smoothly as it's going, and i won't say it's perfect there's bumps in the road, but their commitment, their flexibility, it's really been awesome, and i'm so proud of our team and what they're doing. now, obviously when you go through something like this, you know, it forces you to ask questions and think about things differently. we've certainly had certain parts of our business where people travel and they work remotely regularly but i think what's interesting is it creates a new lens to think about things that can continue to make this a very attractive place for people to work it can change the way we have

our real estate footprint over time i think those are longer-term things i'm not at this point a big believer that the shakeup or the change once we get to the other side will be swift and dramatic. but it will be gradual, and it will, i assume, increase the amount of video conferencing it will make us more comfortable with tools like that it will make us more comfortable in providing more flexibility to employees which, by the way, makes this a more attractive place to work. we're thinking act those things. i think those are more down the road things to think about right now, again, focussed on our people their safety their health how do we help in communities? how do we help people in need? how do we serve our clients? there will be lots of time when we get through this to the other side to think about those other things >> yeah. and we hope there's going to be time between for you to join us again, david as we continue to obviously watch an unfolding -- well, very difficult time here in the

united states and around the world. but thank you for taking some time david, the ceo of goldman sachs joining us >> thank you for having me stay safe and healthy. i appreciate you having me today. jim, you heard some positive things in terms of the dividend there from from him when you asked that question. >> he finally -- he explained it to us. britain just and the european banks give away too much in the dividend, and what's so important about what he said is there are a lot of people looking at wells fargo's dividend and thinking that can't last because something is going to happen. and goldman doesn't have the big dividend that -- even though he jacked up 47% last year, but these -- there's going to be any saving grace to owning these stocks, maybe they can maintain the dividend i thought james gorman yesterday was so good. and michael corpat was good with

us maybe -- i know, you're supposed to say it's different this time. it's been costly, one of the most stupid phrases we've had. i think this is compelling people hate the banks but maybe when they report, we'll see the nonperformers not spike or maybe there's more reserve i don't know you listened to david. he's pretty confident. >> and luckily for us the way earnings season is stacked, that will be our first peak as to what the quarter looked like guys, as we were talking to him, mnuchin did hold a call with bank ceos yesterday to talk about the economy and the participation in the sba loan program which we just asked david about. jim, that will be key in maintaining -- >> there's a big fear that when you get -- everybody is going to apply tomorrow it's so generous

i've got to tell you eight weeks. if you stay open, you get check back for the employees but also for a lot of your overhead this is a program that if it's executed will be -- nothing is a savior because you need to have customers but you will be able to in very short order according to secretary mnuchin, get this money back and the banks have to be ready for it. if there's anything that's going to tie this over, it's that particular aspect. 85 % of america really works for small and medium sized business. i hope it works. it's got to be smooth. the banks have to be ready i know someone was critical of me on twitter that i went to the bank and the bank says they're ready for me okay yes. i have a decent account, but i've got to tell you, i think they're going to be ready. they got the call, be ready for everybody. this is the program that is going to tie us over while w wait for something to work anti-viral whether we get something that's

a vaccine. everyone is negative governor cuomo said only 20% of people live off a ventilator i'm not getting that we have to start thinking about what it's going to look like on the other side and it's not too early to do that and i feel heartened that the government is doing some things that make me believe that there will be businesses that do open, and exist, carl, that not everything is going to be boarded up like i'm starting to see in brooklyn where i see places boarded up like it's going to be a hurricane. that's got to change >> yeah. absolutely guys, i'm thinking of the two stories that we did not get to one, we didn't mention boeing's memo to employees about the voluntary buyouts. we'll give more details about who is eligible in a few weeks, but that's 160,000 workers right there. and david, zoom, announcing that

200 million daily actives up from 10 million in december. it's just a reflection of exactly what we're doing with each other right now >> it is, and this change that's taken place. a ten-fold increase in their user base, and there are some security flaws they're trying to deal with in terms of people joining some of the conversations that are not wanted i've been hearing a bit about that they say they're working on that that does speak to the ability, really, of the economy to keep functioning in some manner with everybody at home. it goes back to the call the president had a couple days ago with all the ceos of the major broad band and cable providers and 5g providers in the country as well. because things are working in that way it's pretty remarkable, but it certainly points to the fact that you can expect there's only going to be increases in usage as this becomes more the norm than not as we continue to at least try to focus on some things that

will stay with us after this crisis passes, and i hope you're right, jim, that we get the anti-virals soon and i hope you're right that we get the tests out there we need and the antibody tests and so many of the things we need there seems to be some hiccups in the delivery right now from the government at least based on some people i know are trying to develop the anti-virals and running into territory problems between fema and hhs, and who has actual jurisdiction over the emergency response and anti-virals. let's hope it all gets streamlined and gets moving as fast as possiblen. >> so many tests i have to tell you, you see zoom is down today off that -- that's good news. i've got tonight, if this were a mad dash or stop trading, i have ring central tonight they're going to announce a get or the to zoom they have the ability to do it they're nationwide they have the infrastructure

they're gunning for zoom you know who else is gunning for zoom chuck robins with webex. talking about security i happen to love zoom. i had a zoom cocktail party last week not bad. you know, david, you like it you didn't have to go out. but look out for ring central when they come on tonight. they really -- they want to anti-zoom, zoom. and who is zooming who i don't know it could be ring central >> spacex does have privacy concerns about zoom. those are things to whrestle wit in the days to come. looks like a great show tonight. >> carl, i have a daughter that's an introvert like david she's telling me it's an introvert's paradise >> introvert >> you said youdidn't like people you on air said you didn't like people >> i know. you keep reminding me.

>> you're on tv. >> it was a little sarcastic there was some truth to it you know that. although, here i am sitting alone at my kitchen table. >> you're in heaven. >> that speaks for itself. to our viewers, good thursday morning i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and jim cramer and sara eisen. it's been a busy day we're coming off 6% route the last couple days on the s&p and adding more to the downside this morning. jobless claims 6.64 million filed for claims this week that's a new record. and we've got other news regarding boicregar regarding boeing and oil it's hanging onto hope that the russians and saudis are mend their differences with the u.s let's get to rick santelli >> yes look at the dow. taking this data in stride the data is not as bad as it

anticipated. for february, numbers unchanged. no revision to the january number if you look at extransportation, it's down .9 durable good orders headline up 1 .2 % if you look at the extransportation component, just like fact orders it drops down .6. and capital good orders nondefense exaircraft proxy for capital spending down .9 just shy of down 1%. that's the final february. the .8 is down .9. shipments is swapped out for down .8. we saw the dow improve a bit it is now much less negative than it was. we saw interest rates are close to unchanged maturities a basis point or two higher this data, of course, being

february final, isn't going to reflect what we know will be coming and impeding some of the numbers. at least at this point in time, we want to continue to monitor all the data to try to figure out exactly where we are and where we may go once we get on the backside of covid-19 sara, back to you. >> rick, thank you the data, what's telling us the story in the american economy in realtime, the jobless claims number 6.65 million americans filing for unemployment claims last week jim cramer, are you surprised to see the market is taking it not too poorly the fact that the dow is attempting to go higher. we're not seeing the sharp selloffs that we've seen in the last few weeks on some of the bad news >> i think to some degree, we have to go beneath the numbers nine minutes ago, there was a piece. pennsylvania is on track to

surpass one million unemployment claims maybe it's not spread out. maybe it's concentrated in some states the reason i mention this is because walmart is coming out and talking about they're hiring like mad amazon hiring like mad everyone knows the headlines, but there are jobs and then in some states there are not. pennsylvania is not even a big state anymore. and it's a gigantic part of the claims i think part of is -- the west and how it was so natural gas oriented maybe there's a mosaic issue -- i almost touched my face -- a mosaic issue about where it is and where it isn't that's why the oil discussion is so important >> dr. fauci was on the "today show," i've been doing infectious diseases for almost 50 years and i can tell you i don't fully understand what

exactly the mechanism is that allows some patients to express mild to no symptoms and others to go into basically respiratory arrest, and we've got to figure out that mystery >> yesterday there was a great article in the times that talked about how it's the intensity with which you are exposed to it like the doctor, the doctor was exposed to it over and over again. it's almost like radiation, x-raies. if you are really in an intense contact like even an airplane, you'll get it badly. but if it's a mild touch to it, then it's not as bad now, this is just the theory there are so many theories and who is going to go against dr. anthony fauci? he's brilliant i've never seen people more clueless about something that's ruining the world than this. it's like there's a meteor headed to the world and we can't figure out why i wish we had a clearinghouse of

people who were just saying this is true. this is a lie. this is false. because boy, there's too much false and negative news about what's really going on sara >> but for every negative news, jim, and you mention the virus load story on the new york times about the health care workers being at risk because of the heaviness of the fact they're getting the virus. for everything that there is, there is a silver lining for instance, there's a company in ohio that's now disinfecting the masks approved by the fda. we'll have them on later on closing bell for every problem in terms of getting health care supplies like ventilators and masks, there's an apple delivering 2 million masks to new york. there's anti-virals in the work. there's also a small study out of china that had a control group this time with some promising results. so we just -- to your point last time, have to streamline this, but for every problem, there is an american company working on it we just have to get it through

we just have to get it scaled. >> i had a doctor in jersey who had a control versus not saying the hydroxy works i had another one who said it worked another one who said it didn't do anything for me perhaps you have to start it early. again, we don't have enough data on anything. it's amazing the chinese have to have some data they can share with us, but what they shared seems let's just say dissembling to some degree there's -- i mean, two -- antibodies some people are using. an article just now about somebody is using an oral mist but sara, have you ever noticed there's no one place that says this failed and this succeeded it makes it feel like the wild west and we don't know anything?

>> yes but it also makes me feel like there are so many ingenius american companies working on it and taking their resources and deploying it toward the common goal it's patriotic something has to work. there's so much being thrown at this, and that we're jesus waus waiting for the news and waiting for the federal government to announce the data is there to back it up so we can figure out a path forward though it is impacting so many businesses, so many companies, so many ceos ow. let's get to seema modi to joins us with a special guest caught in the cross hairs here. booking holdings ceo >> i would like to welcome the ceo of booking holdings. we appreciate you making time today, especially given the circumstances. just yesterday you disclosed to investors and your employees that you have tested positive for coronavirus. how are you feeling right now? >> well, thank you for having me

on i feel fine. i feel great i haven't had a symptom in many days i got tested last thursday i didn't find the results until two nights ago inbetween, tested and getting the results, all of the symptoms resol resolved i am fine. >> glad to hear you're doing well you have a unique lens into the world of travel, bookings on hotels, flights, short-term rentals. as you look at longer-term bookings what does it tell you about consumers and how confident they feel about taking a summer vacation right now? >> i think people are scared it's natural right now people are much more concerned in terms of their immediate needs. you have people worried about am i going to have a job, am i going to get sick? is somebody in my family going to get sick? they're thinking about that more than am i going to go away in july or not? that's the basic thing and i feel for everybody having been through this myself, i know this is nothing to laugh about

i've been so fortunate to come out of it. i know there are a lot of other people that are not coming out quite as easily. i am sympathetic, and i get it they're not thinking about travel right now >> yeah. and i imagine your personal experience battling coronavirus, although as you say, you only experienced mild symptoms, how has that changed the way you think about your 27,000 employees, retention, especially as many of your peers have started to furlough employees? >> yeah. look, the first thing is always safety announcing i was positive. i got notes from employees saying thank you so much i had it i was afraid to tell anybody i was concerned. and everybody should know this is not anything but a disease. anybody can get it and if you have the issue of the virus, you need to get help. make sure to reach out and not feel ashamed or afraid to ask. that's the first thing of course, after people are done

worrying about their health, they worry about their jobs. look, this industry is taking it harder than any other industry people are losing their jobs left and right, and that's why we need the government to step up and help support the travel industry we probably took it first and we're probably the last ones who are going to get out because people are going to be concerned about traveling. i know there's going to be travel again we all know that it's just how fast and inbetween the time we are now having this terrible problem and the future when people are going to start traveling again, we need some support to make sure we can get over this bad period >> glenn, i'm glad you're feeling well it's true we need some stories like yours everyone reads the other ones. let me ask you, open table 54,000 restaurants worldwide how many are open and not for takeout? >> very few. i look at the numbers, and yes there are some places that are still open, and we see an

occasional reservation here and there. i look at that and wonder sometimes, did those people, are they o bbeying the local jurisdictions in people will go back to restaurants too. that's where support is needed also because we know that this is a temporary period and we need help and support for those small business people, the small restaurants that they don't have a lot of cash flow. they don't have a lot of savings in the bank. we need to help support them so when people are ready to go out and dine again, there are restaurants to go to >> we were talking to the head of spirit airlines yesterday his point was vacation travel eventually will return because nobody is going to take a vacation on zoom, as you put it. he's worried about corporate travel and when you have goldman with 98% of workers working from home, how much do you think about whether or not companies decide they need their workers to fly

>> that's an interesting question we also went from what was very, very minimal video technology in our industry and people like to travel and meet with each other. in our company almost 27,000 employees, almost everybody is now working virtually. we have 10,000 customer service people working in centers, working from home. it's just an amazing thing to be able to accomplish that. the question is should we be spending so much money on flying around traveling? maybe we shouldn't spend so much doing that this seems to work there is a potential for significant changes in the way people do corporate travel but in terms of leisure, correct, people are going to want to be there it's nice to see pictures. it's better to be there. >> what do you make of the new cares act from congress and how much relief will it provide to you potentially and your industry like the hotels,

obviously, like the airlines is more needed >> well, i think it's a great start. let's start right away, great thing. government getting up, getting that money to work for our very hard pressed airline people. the hotel industry really great so thankful for the president, secretary of treasury, senator schumer, speaker pelosi. just fantastic getting that up and running. it's great we're going to need more and i'll put it bluntly, we are going to need more and i'm glad to hear they're already working on another package because when you have zero revenue, which is what a lot of these airlines are getting from it, zero revenue is not the way to run a business. they are going to need support for some time so that when people can travel again, there's actually airlines to go travel with for ourselves, we're looking at the details. we're not sure whether we need it or not. we have to abide by the regulation, how it's going to work before we take or not take

money. it's not just the u.s. we're global we operate around the world in over 200 offices governments around the world are putting money to work to help support different industries that are badly affected. europe is doing it india is doing it. all the governments are doing it that's really great. but i want to make it very clear that this is just the early stage. there's still going to be a lot of issues economically for some time, and we'll need that support even more so in the future >> i think 136,000 people flew yesterday in the u.s., versus 2 .1 million a year ago the same way. hard to predict, but when do you think somebody is going to be willing to take the middle seat in a crowded airplane again? >> i can start right away. nobody wanted that willingly take that seat let's start right there. nobody liked that ever

look, it's going to be a pucks of people feeling safe and obviously i listened to you guys talk about great things coming down the pipe and hopefully one of the vaccines is going to work. maybe 2021 we have vaccines. maybe 2022 the whole world is thinking about hey, this virus is just like everything else, nobody has to worry about it we hope that's the case. it's going to take time. it's not going to be happening this year. it's hopefully a 2021 where people hopefully are feeling it's safe to get on a plane and travel and people start doing it again. and it's going to happen slowly and in different places it's going to happen at different rates. and the bigger issue is going to be what is going to be the friction far traveling? as you see, some governments are being restrictive about who they're letting into their country, and they're letting people in only if they're willing to giver up certain elements of privacy so you can be trapped if you come down with the virus. they want to find you and who you've been close to

these are things we're not used to, and people need to make decisions am i willing to give up my privacy to tecertain placs in airports you'll see fever checking everywhere. with sars, you went through anything, there were fever checks everywhere. these things will help us feel safer. they will make us safer and then people will feel better about getting on a plane >> what are you seeing happen in asia in we spoke with mar yacht's ceo last week who said occupancy is starting to climb in china and then data that shows that hotels are back up to 50% which is similar to preco-vid volumes. >> asia so coming back, but there are second waves in areas,

for example, in hong kong where they relaxed some of the restrictions, starting seeing more virus activity coming u and immediately clamped back down again. so it's going to be waves of up and down i do believe, though, the asian governments have been better than us in terms of taking an approach that immediately when they saw it coming took steps to prevent an outbreak like we're seeing here. it was well done by them, but they had the experience of sars in 2002 and 2003 and they knew having said that experience, they were better prepared to really take action right away. and that's something unfortunately we did not do. >> now, are some things going to just change? i throuought the cruise line business was good, but now boats, no one wants them to dock and the stuff on the surface,

lasts so long. i always love using your place as not just airbnb but yours i've used yours. i love staying at other people's places i don't want to stay at anybody else's places. i don't know how clean they are. is some behavior going to change because we're worried about the surface? >> we've been thinking about that ourselves i think it's going to be individual people who make different choices. some people are going to say i want to stay in a hotel because i know they're cleaning it with industrial strength cleaners and doing it right i feel safer in a hotel. other people are going to say i don't like the hotel there are a lot of people in the lobby. there are a lot of people in the elevator and they touch all the buttons. i want to stay in somebody's home that i know won't be as many people and i can talk to the person different people are going to have dint ways to think about this and the good thing about our business, we offer both as we always have, and we let people

choose who what do they want? if they want a home, we have that if they want a hotel, we have a hotel for them >> glenn, you have a lot of cash on your balance sheet. i'm wondering that in this type of environment, will you look for opportunities here to acquire smaller travel companies as many say that they're not going to be able to keep the doors open it's a strategy you've used in the past >> yeah. well, we're always looking at ways to improve our business i'll be honest, right now firs priority, number one, taking care of our customers. we have 400,000 contacts a day going through our customer service for booking.com let alone priceline and other companies. that's the most important thing. deal with our customers. two, make sure my employees are doing all the protocols that are being followed make sure everybody is -- is they have a problem, we want to help them immediately. those are the two things most important. partners next, what to do for

them they're hurting badly. now, after that, yes, important in a crisis, don't just focus on today's problem, but be thinking further ahead, what's the strategy going forward for the next year, two years and certainly we're going to be looking at everything. because you're right, valuations have changed tremendously, and there could be some opportunities? >> okay. glenn, we'll leave the conversation there we appreciate you spending time with us today. we hope you feel better as well. glenn. >> i feel great. thank you so much for having me. i just want to thank all the other people, the doctors on the front lines, nurses, everybody just -- we thank them so much. we know they're risking their lives for us >> absolutely. thank you, glenn ceo of booking holdings. david? see in a, thank you. and thank you for bringing glenn to us. the s&p up almost 1% it was there a nice positive morning so far for the broader markets. what's coming up later today on the big mad money show

>> all right we have okta, ring central we're going to chipolte. they're doing amazing things for the people hanging on in the economy. watch that and david, our friend larry culp is going to talk about what's going to happen with the 20 billion he just got. >> yeah. you know, so many stories we have not covered, jim, because of everything else in connection withing, of course, the closing of that deal we're going to have utx, raytheon closing soon. so many different things we never talked to hp xerox. it will be interesting to hear from mr. culp. >> we need a different channel where we talk to each other. >> a channel for the news we used to do that's a great to do we'll see you tonight. we are hanging in close to session highs. the session low was minus 208. 2490 on the s&p and oil is ldg 22 back in a minute

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we've swung higher on the markets with the dow up more than 130 time for our etf spotlight a look at energy energy spider etf. hopes for a saudi russia oil truce. still down 50% so far this year. top three holdings exxon, chevron and conocophilips.

trump does say that he thinks russia and saudi arabia would soon make a deal to end the price war. still to come robert kaplan weighing in. crude oil prices now up about 9% at leaf blowers.

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joe kernen is back having just spoken to the president. >> good morning. out of the blue call i speak to the president occasionally received a call to him said he spoke to vladimir putin said and mbs today, and he expects them to announce a cut of up to -- of 10 million barrels, perhaps 15 million. but 10 million barrels of oil production cut they could be as high as 15 million. i assume he's going to come out and in some fashion with an announcement or a tweet saying as much. and he characterized it in his words, as you know, joe, this would be a big deal. and after speaking as i said with vladimir putin yesterday, and we knew that something perhaps was in the works in terms of those two countries frenemy, i guess we'd call them. but 10 million he phrased it carefully.

i expect that announcement to come 10 million maybe as high as 15 that's what i have, carl i was throwing a tennis ball with my german shepards when i got called in here i had to put on a shirt. you just never know. >> tv in the modern age. oil is on pace on hopes this would come to fruition and the chinese were reportedly building if for their own stockpiles. any other ground >> let's watch for the tweets and i'm surprised. normally that's the way he does things, but the tweets should be forthcoming as i said how long do i have? >> i want to bring that on cnbc.

>> markets already moving on that joe, thank you for that. joe, coming from home having spoken to the president about oil. sara >> let's get to steve liesman who joins us with the dallas fed president robert kaplan. steve? >> yeah. maybe the perfect guest to have right after this news from joe from the president there robert kaplan, president of the dallas fed, thanks for joining us >> good to talk to you, steve. >> i guess i should start with the news you have been following the -- you are in the oil -- you are almost the federal reserve president for the oil patch given your position in texas tell us what you think the impact of the production cut from saudi arabia and russia might have >> well, it's obviously welcome by the industry in the

short-run, so long the coronavirus continues, there's just a substantial amount of excess capacity being generated every day. as you know, there's so much excess supplies being generated every day. so much so that we're starting to worry about storage capacity for it so this, this will be ek treemly helpful. it will be particularly helpful as we come out of this virus, and lit will speed the time whee the supply demand for oil can get into balance we're a long way from that, and people had warned even with the substantial move from saudi arabia and russia, we're going to be spending a substantial amount of time working off a high level of oversupply that's still true, but this obviously helps. >> mr. ci want to ask a question about the outlook for the economy. we went into this with the

general belief this was going to be painful in fact second quarter with a rebound in the third quarter. i'm wondering if that's your view or if there's growing concern that what's going to happen or what's happening right now might be something that we create lingering weakness in the third quarter such that the rebound may be further out this year >> well, so we're like everyone else, we're looking at various models of when the curve begins to flatten and our judgment is severe contraction in the second quarter. and a rebound. the issue is what's the strength of the rebound and the reason we're trying to come to grips with that into the third and fourth quarter is as we've talked before, his if i canned investments in the last couple of years has been sluggish manufacturing has been sluggish.

the underpinning of the economy has been the consumer. and clearly the consumer is going to come out of this weakened from what we've had in the past we're going to have we think we're going to have unemployment that's going to get in the low to mid teens we will likely end the year, we believe, below 10% unemployment. probably closer to 8 % it will take a while to work it off. the consumer is going to be much more cautious for obvious reasons. and so there's just an open question about what the strength of the consumer going to be once we get past this virus, and we get into the fourth quarter and we get into 2021 i think that's a big challenge and question mark for the economy. >> i know the federal reserve has done a lot, but in the department of what have you done for me lately, i wonder if you

can discuss additional things the fed might be considering at this point there's a main street lending quilt and talk about state governments being in really severe problems right now. for example, new york state not getting very much income i imagine states across the country are going to have problems what else is the federal reserve considering here that might be able to help the economy >> i want to be cautious about what i talk about. obviously the main street lending program, the fed is working at breakneck speed to get it up and running. it's essential that we get that running as soon as possible. small businesses are desperately depending on assistance and we want to preserve as many jobs and have as many small businesses come out of this as possible that's one thing that's public information. regarding municipal securities, municipal situation.

we're buying commercial paper. it's clear as you said, municipalities need assistance they have to balance their budgets every year they're not getting tax revenues and so it's for investment grade municipalities, it's understandable why that is a topic in the same way that we're already buying investment grade corporate bonds. >> great to talk to you. help us understand how you think about initial jobless claims number like we got today 6.6 million americans filing for unemployment how has that changed our economy? how many of those are jobs lost for good how should we be thinking about the damage that this is doing from a jobs perspective and a broader economic perspective >> the way i think about that,

roughly speaking, there's the work force of the united states is 160 million workers and so i mentioned earlier that it's our view at the dallas fed we're going to get into unemployment in the low to mid teens. i may not be a good judge of the pace of getting there, but i feel pretty strongly we're going to get to that and so if that's the case, it means something like low to mid teens percentage of 160 million workers are for at least some period of time, going to be unemployed and sitting on unemployment claims. the 3 million last week and the 6 million today is consistent with that. probably not going to be a great judge of what the pace of it is going to be, but i think that's where we're heading. >> yeah. it's stressing numbers i wanted to ask you about the

markets. i mean, obviously the fed has taken on the role of firefighter and chief. you mentioned the credit markets, foreign exchange markets. we've seen a lot of blockages and issues what's your issue as to how effective the fed has been in stepping in and are you pleased it's freeing up some of the systems at this point? >> yeah, and it's -- this is -- it seems like years ago, but it was just a few weeks ago we started with the treasury market and then mortgage backed securities markets and now have intervened and have programs that are either working or about to be activated for a whole range of other markets, corporate bonds. we're doing commercial paper money market funds by and large the markets now are working reasonably well.

there's still some stresses we're seeing and it is notable that with everything we're doing, though, credit spreads are wider including for investment grade debt even though we've got a program for investment grade debt, i think since the start of this crisis even credit spreads for dripl ds are 250 basis points wider and much wider than that for less than investment grade that's not a market function issue. that's a pricing issue and there have been some strains which have been well discussed in aspects of the mortgage markets. we're aware of that. i think by and large the markets are working reasonably well. we're watching very carefully for stresses while they're working well, the cost of credit, particularly for corporates has increased >> along those lines, the

federal reserve yesterday reduced easement of some leverage ratios. should the banks get more relief on some of the dodd frank leverage and capital ratios to help them play a bigger role in aiding the economy, and on the flip side of that, should the banks be forced to stop paying dividends in your opinion? >> so we are asking a lot of the banks. the main street program is an example, and obviously what the sba is doing is going through the banks. a number of programs are going through the banks, and we're asking the banks to exhibit forbearance on credit situations and so i think changing the leverage ratio in a crisis is quite appropriate. we want the banks to have as much latitude as possible because we're workinga lot of

these programs through them. i'm well aware that the uk banks have suspended their dividends, and i'm not going to comment on that here. we will be doing stress testing coming up and i think we have a regime in place where we make judgments about purchase and capital returns based on stress testing. i think that's a good method and we should continue to follow that >> you've made -- we all know the emergency patch is ground zero for the retrenchment in cap ex it was already coming in when we think about the lingering effects of the virus, beyond q 2 and q 3 and the longer term impacts on overall impact, what does that do? >> it's a concern in that coming

out of this i can tell you cap exand the emergency patch is going to be lower. even before the virus, we thought capex and the emergency patch would be down 10 % it's more than that. it's a -- unless there are other programs or left as it is, you should expect business if i canned investment is going to be weak, and, again, it really -- the consumer has been the underpinning of the economy. the service sector has been the underpinning of the economy, and we know because of this shutdown, the service sector is going to come out i think more challenged, and the consumer is going to come out more challenged so that's on the fiscal side away from the fed, it means there's going to have to be more

fiscal action to deal with that. what's been done so far has been essential, but i would put it in the category of relief it's basically made sure individuals continue to be able to sustain small businesses can continue to sustain markets continue to function but beyond that i think we'll need stimulus from here. it's not surprising that's beginning to get discussed that's not a fed decision. that's a congress fiscal authority decision but it's going to be needed. >> if i could come back specifically to the energy industry which you started the interview discussing and oil prices are now up almost 30% on the reporting of the conversation we had with the president and i believe his tweet about a $10 million -- 10 million barrel reduction from

the russians and potentially the saudis to your point, the global oversupply continues i think it's 24 million barrels a day. 6 million barrels in the u.s what are your predictions for the energy industry given that even with the potential 10 million barrels not coming to market every day it would seem it is a very difficult industry to be in. >> it is and so we do widespread surveys and we talk to contacts throughout the industry. and at a number in the low 30s, it's challenging for many producers, drillers to make a profit so we would expect that a number of -- with this amount of oversupply that's going to go on, there's going to be a consolidation in the industry that will be some producers that are going to struggle to make it through, and then you have the service providers that provide them services.

they will struggle to go through this some of them are highly leveraged and so we would expect you're going to see lower c cap ex, restructure, fewer players on the other end and there's lots of discussions about how to preserve as much of the permian basin and service sector as possible that's going to be a challenge even with this move today that you're describing. because the oversupply is so substantial. >> i'm wondering if beyond the oil business which is a big part of your district, but not the only part of it. what else are you hearing from companies, small businesses, large businesses, medium businesses, how long can they sustain this shutdown in the u.s. economy before we start to effect real challenge or permanent damage to the economy? >> i can tell you among small businesses they're going through the calculation of how to manage

their employees, whether or not to take the government assistance whether they are keep their employees on the payroll whether they can survive and that debate is going on across small businesses i can tell you in this district, but my guess is nationwide and for larger businesses, they're trying to determine what's the size of their business going to be coming out of this, and then how much demand in that's the right sizing for their business? everybody is having those discussions, and the issue that comes out of that, as i mention, we'll get to low to mid teens in unemployment and hopefully in the year below 10% or neighborhood of 8 %. the issue is how fast can we work it down when many companies that employ people won't be employing people

i was looking at the statistics yesterday and something like let's put it this way, a significant percentage of jobs and new jobs come from small businesses and i think that's going to be a real challenge and then for bigger businesses, they just have to determine how big their business is going to be and how many people they're going to employ. i think the managing down the unemployment rate is going to be a big challenge, and the consumer not being as strong as he or she was going into this crisis, that's high on the list, top of the list of challenges coming out of this crisis. >> thank you for joining us. we look forward to continuing the conversation >> good to talk to you guys, back to you. >> steve, thank you. >> thanks for bringing us that interview. >> a programming note for you. tune in.

an exclusive interview with janet yellen monday, 10:00 a.m. eastern right here on cnbc we're bringing you the top voices in finance and economics to help you get through this volatile period. stocks are building on some early gains. s&p is up 2% energy a big help after that joe kernen report that saudi and russia are going to cut production we'll be right back. feels like there's no barriers between departments now. do you think everyone appreciates it? i do. huh... forgot my glasses. serivcenow. the smarter way to workflow. that liberty mutual customizes your insurance, i just love hitting the open road and telling people so you only pay for what you need! [squawks]

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." time now for the santelli exchange and i will send it over to rick santelli >> thanks, david i would like to welcome my guest, zach from goldman sachs thanks for joining me today. we all know that these are hard circumstances to deal with and discuss markets, but nonetheless, thank you for joining me i would liketo get right into it there's been calls that we need corona bonds in the u.s. i say we have two year, five year, ten year and a fed that can print debt and there seems to be many willing buyers. we don't need them here. there's a place that i think needs them really bad and that is europe. how is europe going to pay for all the cradle to grave services in addition to trying to help some of these economies like

italy control the coronavirus when they have so much debt and so little ways to generate new debt >> it's a great question what european countries and policymakers need to figure out is a way to stimulate growth, provide for a recovery within the institutional constraints of europe corona bonds are one option and we think european policymakers should be looking at some of this is happening already. i think that's important to stress through the ecb the ecb is buying the already issued bonds and essentially mutualizing debt through its own balance sheets it buys the bonds it issues euro notes on the other side which are a liability of the whole euro area. to some extent this is already happening through the ecb's balance sheet. corona bonds would take us one step further and provide another means to support the economy through the crisis, but i think it's important to recognize that european policymakers are doing a lot and so we're somewhat

encouraged by those steps so far. >> but zach, you said that they -- the ecb can buy paper, i get that they can put grease in the gears. our treasure and fed is doing a whole lot more than putting grease in the gears. they're underpinning whole industries that's what i'm talking about. who is going to underpin that? france, you take out all the tax collections in france, what's going to support the system? the bank's best customer is municipalities. >> right so i would say it's not just about europe either. when we look at this crisis, we often look at the united states and the united states has a luxury of being able to issue huge amounts of debt with very little cost in terms of market yields many countries just don't have that ability and i think to some extent europe is in that camp, especially peripheral europe, although the ecb is doing what it can to help, but many other countries, especially in

emerging market economies have the same problems. we have fiscal capacity constraints throughout the world and that's a key problem in figuring how to get out of the crisis hoping the virus itself can be controlled such that countries can stimulate with the resources they have available. you're right, europe does have the fiscal constraints as well as many emerging market economies. the u.s. has a luxury that other economies don't in that regard >> excellent zach, it's a complicated topic and i thought that needed to be underscored. christine he guard has her job cut out for her. back to you. >> all right rick santelli, thank you as you can see we are building on momentum here, gaining for stocks the dow up 284 points after being negative earlier this morning. s&p up 1.35% the nasdaq up almost a percent crude oil is the standout, up about 20% or so.

brent, wti is up about 23% after the president tweets what joe kernen reported to us earlier, a conversation between saudi arabia and russia and an agreement on a production cut. and that is certainly helping the price of oil keep in mind, oil is down about 60% still for the year energy stocks, though, are on the top of the market. we're going to take a quick commercial break and stay on top of the market action on the other side for many of our members, being prepared... won't be a new thing. and it won't be their first experience with social distancing. overcoming challenges is what defines the military community.

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welcome back new york governor andrew cuomo is pleading with doctors and nurses from all around the country to come to the epicenter of the coronavirus crisis and that is new york our contessa brewer is covering that today

>> hi there, carl. behind me is a hospital in kingston, 90 miles north of new york city. they're adding 235 hospital beds inside, that will more than triple the capacity alone. i talked to the county executive he's worried he will not have the medical personnel to staff that capacity. the governor putting out the nationwide plea for doctors and nurses we're going to pay you to come in here and many cases we're going to pay you a lot you new west staffing agency, a recruiting agency for nurses, says it has seen hospital pay as high as $10,000 or more per week plus free housing and guaranteed quarantine pay, faststaff recruiting says it always pays its nurses as much as 50% more karen has never seen offers this high, a traveling nurse who was based in new york city, was exposed to coronavirus, went into quarantine and now this week is heading back into the epicenter of the crisis and says

what's bringing her back, it's not the pay. >> i think i'm a little apprehensive of going back just because i know how bad it's gotten since i went into quarantine and now am out. i'm not scared i have to go back. there's no way not to. it's my duty, it's my job. i'm a nurse. >> so desperate is new york for these nurses to come in here that it's waiving licensing requirements if you have a lapsed license from somewhere else you can go back through and do a one-day training and get relicensed againp they're putting out the national plea. we're waiting to see if it's filled faststaff said applications are up about 300% alone. carl >> unbelievable story. we'll see if people respond to that contessa, thank you so much. our contessa brewer is in kingston, new york, this morning. good morning, everyone welcome to "squawk alley." i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and jon fortt coming live from different locations

this morning on a fascinating day for markets. futures were weak but we have added to gains as our joe kernen speaks to the president and the president tweets about a conversation he had with the crown prince of saudi arabia saying he expects them, after having talked to putten as well, of a production cut of oil between 10 to 15 million barrels of oil and jon fortt, that has resulted in almost i think got to be an unprecedented squeeze in crude which was up almost 40%. >> certainly has carl, as jim cramer has been talking about quite a bit, equities are responding to the oil markets. this morning it seems to me that a number of networking and broadband players including our parent comcast, verizon, some cloud players, are responding positively not sure exactly why that is, but on all things stocks, you can go to our senior