i will see you again at 7:00 eastern this evening as we focus on the path forward for individual business owners here on cnbc. we have a great lineup for you the profit's marcus lemonis, sheryl sandberg, and kevin o'leary. i will see you at 7:00 tonight kelly evans picks it up now. >> scott, thanks he's been really working overtime covering these markets and this economy in turmoil. stocks are back in rally mode right now, led this time by a massive jump in oil. we're up currently 350, for some solid gains across the board right now. i mentioned crude. that is going to be the huge story of the day and it is the driver of the action right now, it is up 25%. the energy sector is up nearly 10%. all of this after the president told cnbc the saudis and russia will ease pressure on oil. we're going to have a lot, a lot

more on this in just a moment. we should note that despite this rally, crude is still down 46% in just the past month and the rally in stocks today comes despite the massive jump in weekly jobless claims, to 6.6 million filed last week. that's a new record. we've now had nearly 10 million claims in the past two weeks, only about 11 million were filed in all of last year, so a pretty shocking increase. for more on today's market moves, let's get straight to bob pisani for what he is watching bob? >> the key here is, it's nice to have something besides coronavirus move the markets the jobless claims numbers, as high as they were, didn't dramatically move the market down initially, it did, but we came back it was when the president commented on the expected oil cuts in production in saudi arabia and in russia, whether that's going to happen or not, but that's what moved the markets. if you take a look at the major sectors here, energy, far and away, is the leader. utilities and banks have bounced back after a brutal 6% decline

yesterday. that was nice to see we see reits are underperforming and retail stocks are also underperforming. this is probably because of some of the guidance and commentary we gave. kimco realty one of those companies out there. big shopping mall owner. they have a position in albertson's. they're suspending guidance. that's weak. walgreens said they're not in a position to accurately forecast the future impact of coronavirus. that's sort of indicating guidance isn't very good shopify, brinker, and stanley works, black and decker, also suspending guidance. most of them down. the energy etfs really huge volume today volumes are generally down across the board on the etfs, but there's the oil fund uso, which is oil futures and the energy and oil and gas exploration are equities huge volume in those today you know, it never fails

they always think there's some kind of bottom in oil and always get killed there are people trying to figure out whether $20 might be a bottom for oil back to you. >> let's zero in on oil for another moment it's having its best day on record, and if we settle up more than 23.8%, that will be true. we're up 24.5% right now all of this after the president tweeted and told our joe kernan that he expects and hopes that russia and saudi arabia will be cutting back approximately 10 to 15 million barrels of oil. now, we have several energy executives headed to the white house tomorrow, where sources tell cnbc they won't be lobbying for a direct bailout, but instead lobbying for relief from drilling on federal lands and other things for more on where the price of coil can go from here, i'm joined by dan yergin, author of the new book, "the new map and the clash of nations." brian sullivan is with us as well brian, let me start with you there have been a lot of headlines this morning, but what do we actually know? >> okay, kelly

hi, dan. i have just been going back and forth, minutes ago, literally, with somebody inside of aramco to talk about this a little bit. and it's very clear that -- and not taking anything away from the president's tweet, because he was on the call and he knows what they said and i'm sure dan would agree with this, 10 to 15 million barrel a day cut is simply not possible it's not mathematically possible the price of oil didn't go up 50%. they would still come out worse. and they said, this is what go it from somebody inside of aramco a few minutes ago any 10 million cut or more must include u.s. producers so know if they were saying mathematically it must, but here's the reality, you're not going to take half of saudi and russia production offline. no country could physically do that it would have to include u.s. producers. and my guess, tomorrow at the white house, there's going to be a, you know, you guys need to roll back your production kind of conversation. >> brian, let me jump in there i have a piece -- kelly, i don't

know if you have it yet, that just went up on foreign j foreignaffairs.com on this subject on to what's actually happening. i think the president, he's famous for being a dealmaker, i think here he's doing divorce mediation, getting these two countries together but as brian says, that even if you rolled back what they had, the increases -- it's not clear the russians are increasing, the saudis are increasing and some others are, it would be maybe 4 million barrels a day. what we're looking at in the month of april is a 20 million barrel a day decline and you're not going to get the cuts out of just those countries and it's not like saudi arabia can just tell oil companies to cut back so that's where the puzzle is. we think, our view has been that we were going to see a 10 million barrel a day decline, because producers are going to have to shut in, because they

can't either get their oil to market, they can't get into storage, or that the price in the marketplace is less than their operating costs. but of course, today, with the price up, it looks a little brighter for the producers, but there's still the question that some time in late april to early may, we would probably run out of storage, unless there are not major cuts >> plus, dan, the price is only up today on reports that you say aren't possible. >> well, i think as brian said, certainly, those two countries are not going to -- they can't do it. but, you know, russia is having trouble placing its barrels in the market, so production sort of goes down anyway. so -- but i think that the sign that this is a turnaround in viewpoint of the two countries, and, obviously, what's really new is the engagement of president trump in this. >> right and brian, i thought the interesting thing, too, is this reporting that's on the wire from reuters in the last several minutes, where they say, the u.s. government is not

necessarily looking to impose any kind of quota. i don't know if they could do it you said yesterday, it's against the law in the u.s. for these companies to get together and agree to cut production. i don't know if it would be any different coming from above. but brian, if they cut production because they have to, even if we're not officially announcing, hey, we're going to have this cutback, are we effectively going to have that situation anyway so, you know, it might not be official, so to speak. but it is a wink, wink, nod, nod, if everyone is not able to currently produce what they're currently producing, sometimes that will come off the market. >> the one thing that everybody has got to remember about this that shutting in a well is expensive. smaller producers, it would be cheaper for them to continue to pump oil, losing money every barrel, because the cost of actually capping or stopping the flow of a well can be 50 to $100,000 it's not like you just turn the water off on a sink. now, there are some ways to do that, but the point is, it's also expensive to do the other

thing. and you're right, can the government say you're going to cut your production by that much i don't think so it seems like that's a cartel, whether there's an anti-cartel bill in congress right now i know that two big texas producers, parsley and pioneer, and we had ceo of pioneer on last week, they're asking texas to basically impose quotas on production but to dan's point, it's not about supply, it's about demand. if we drop off 20 million barrels a day and the refinery stops -- buying oil to produce gasoline, because nobody needs it or needs jet fuel, where is that oil going to go >> and the journal, yesterday, had a great editorial, where they explained that if you impose quotas, you benefit the weaker players, hurt the strong ones that texas had gone down this road before. they said they shouldn't go down it again >> well, they had -- in fact, they did this starting in the 1930s when oil was going for 10 cents a barrel and last time they did it, however, was actually 50 years ago, half a century. you don't have anybody there who

actually remembers how to pro-ration, as it's called but, you know, i think other countries are kind of going to look at texas. because, remember, texas produces 40% of the u.s.' entire oil. but i think that, you know, there's -- you know, this is a very controversial things to do that you know, people are on both sides of this. and as brian says, companies themselves can't get together and do this. but the states -- the states are the ones who actually have authority over production. there are other things the federal government can do to ease the pressure on the companies, economically. but -- >> and it is interesting, dan, if you don't mind, i want to get this last point from you before you have to move on, but reportedly, the companies are not looking for some sort of direct bailout in fact, they seem to want relaxed permits for drilling on federal lands, for instance, which is if the idea is to have less production right now, i don't think -- >> i think what they would like is royalty relief. and i think what they would also like is some of the restrictions

on shipping to be what's called the jones act. >> jones act >> move oil in ships up the u.s. coast. and that would improve the competitive position of u.s. oil vi adviso vis-a-vis foreign oil. the u.s. is an exporter of -- >> if they get relief -- >> and i want to jump in on that, too. everybody says, let's tear up saudi oil. maybe we do that, but everything is connected two things, if we tariff saudi oil, and i'm not saying we should or shouldn't, the saudis who are the number one buyer of u.s. military equipment might go find another supplier for that and now the defense industry will probably be out of their mind, because the saudis say, if you tariff our oil, we'll stop buying $100 billion worth of your fighter jets and missiles every year you've got that. dan knows more about than i do but i've talked to two companies, and you know what they want? they don't want to go to the white house in person tomorrow this is a meeting in person.

and i can tell you having talked to some of these companies and broke the story about which seven are going, some of them would rather do this on zoom they're not real -- i'm not joking an in-person meeting -- >> they're concerned about the seating. they don't want to be huddled in pa small room. i think that's probably -- >> that's a real point we're making, by the way >> dan, if the news that comes out of this is some royalty relief and some jones act relief, things you mentioned, all that does is do what help these companies will whether -- how much real relief are we talking about if those measures, which might have needed to be doer done otherwise, are removed for the time being >> right now, when you're really ill, any relief is good relief so it would be -- i think it would be welcomed. it's not decisive. it doesn't solve the overall problem, as brian said, which is a collapse in demand and i think the notion, if you

put tariffs -- if you're trying to do divorce mediation and also decide to punish them at the same time with tariffs, i don't think you get a very productive outcome. >> all right we thank you both today. dan yergin and brian sullivan with the very latest reporting on what indeed may be happening with any oil production cuts that has oil spiking on this session today. it has the whole stock market higher, too, helping to erase earlier losses after that huge jump in jobless claims that we saw this morning nearly 10 million claims have been filed in the past two weeks alone. that's nearly as many as were filed in all of last year and in all of 2018. each of these years, all had just more than 11 million total claims filed how much worse could things get here joining me, mark zandi is chief economist at moody's analytics and brian weinstein is head of global fixed income at morgan stanley fixed asset management it is shocking the kind of spike that we're seeing right now. how do you -- what's your best

advice right now >> kelly, our economy clearly was moving along nicely, and if you think about it in a car, we hit a tree we've never seen an economy really stop like this. and 10 million claims is what we saw the last couple of years, just about it's truly unprecedented but really, i think it's naive to think what got us into a lot of this trouble? some of the action in the bond market and then in the oil markets. that's where the volatility started, before it got to the stock market we think you need some type of bottom in the oil markets. and today's news is really -- was really a quote/unquote good thing that happened. we can get some type of low and calm in the oil markets, maybe that can work its way to the bond markets into the stock market this has been an historically volatile year. we get it. this volatility is not going to go anywhere. but maybe one potential bullet point is when you have a bad first quarter, april is usually pretty good month and historically, that's kind of the playbook so maybe a little bit of a bounce here. but by no means are we out of the woods in our opinion >> mark, how much darker do the woods get? >> darker.

one thing -- one disconcerting aspect of today's ui claims numbers is that they were in places like pennsylvania, ohio, massachusetts. and those are states where the lockdowns started first. i live in chester county, pennsylvania, right outside of philly we were one of the first counties in the country to experience a lockdown. that would suggest all the lockdowns that are now coming, and you saw florida, georgia, yesterday, announce lockdowns. all of that's -- all of those claims are coming down the road. so we've got a ways to go here it's going to get a lot darker >> so, mark, some of the estimates that i'm seeing now, hopefully, they can't get a whole lot worse, because you have people talking about 30 to 50% declines in second quarter gdp, an unemployment rate peaking anywhere from 15 to 30%. are you of the mind that the worst it gets, the sharper the rebound could be or is it the worst it gets, the more risk that something gets permanently broken >> the latter. i think when the economy and financial systems are under such

significant pressure, odds are pretty high that something else goes off the rails one thing we know almost for sure that will happen is there will be more business failures than bankruptcy and that will make it that much more severe and longer, but people won't have jobs to go back to. businesses will be out of business but if you look into the financial system there are a lot of stress points the fed has done a good job of keeping it altogether, but the longer this goes on and the more pressure that's applied, it will be very difficult for the fed to succeed. and if that happens, the recovery will be very difficult. so under any scenario, it's hard to see the economy coming back quickly. >> brian, let's talk about the fed and a lot of the moves that they've made so far, which in many ways are aimed directly at helping bond markets, fixed income markets, and other things continue to smoothly operate are they having success in that regard >> they're starting to -- >> go ahead, brian >> if you think about the

magnitude, even if you can look at economist estimates, think about 10 million people losing their jobs in two weeks. it's just mind boggling. and you take a big step back and say, okay, how does cash flow get through the economy? because that's what bonds are. and the answer is, no one knows. that uncertainty factor got so large that what the fed did was necessary and it's starting to help you can see thawing in the treasury market and in the mortgage market where there are government-guaranteed cash flows. i think for an active bond manager, this is really important. you can no longer say you like corporate bonds. because you actually have to decide which corporate bonds and the money going to get to first? it matters in small business, large business, mortgage payments you can't just look at the index and decide if you like it or not. this gets really hard from here. we don't know how long this will take, but we know there are going to be problems >> and i imagine for you guys, that means a balance sheet focus. something basically on company-by-company solvency.

can you speak at all who kind of rises, who falls, even in general terms? >> sure. people have been on this theme for a while. over-levered companies might have fewer options they need cash flows to come back and if you look at the performance of the month of february, which is a fascinating month, you can see investors starting to understand that companies with strong balance sheets who have been more conservative are going to be okay you can see that instructured products, which scare people, the top of the capital stack is going to be okay, it's made to survive defaults and obviously, you can pick on certain sectors. you can do into lodging and gaming and things where the cash flow has just gone to zero and then you have to postulate how long that will take to come back you can see the market starting to do the work but remember how used to people are to trading the an eindex. and i think it's going to change a little bit so you'll take a while to navigate the winners and losers, but it gives us a real chance to say, how does this actually play

out. how do we get money to people. how do those people take the money? what bills will they pay and getting that even a little bit right will separate out the winners from the losers. >> i apologize, we have brian and ryan today but ryan, the sameis true on obviously the stock market side, as well for sector investing do you think that just remaining a risky gambit for a while >> i think we're talking about two separate things. the economy is not the stock market and vice versa. we'll start seeing days where the stock market is going up a lot with really bad news the way we're looking at it lpl research, we're sticking with a little bit overgrowth. we like health care, we like technology some of those areas that have held up well on the sell-off are going to eventually come back and it takes about 20 months to make new highs when you have a sell-off like this we're not anticipating new highs anytime soon but after 87, 34% correction, right where we were now, took 20 months to get to new highs there can be a lot of gains and a lot of opportunity for longer-term investors here, when

we can get over to the other side and we do think the second half of the year with all of that monetary fiscal policy, which everybody has been talking about, it is there and it's not something we want to bet against. >> even with sectors gentlemen, thank you all, good diversity of opinions. we appreciate it mark zandi, ryan detrick, and brian weinstein. well, $350 billion of those small business loans will be made available starting tonight at midnight, but is the government truly ready to roll out the program? kayla tausche is looking at how washington is trying to get this up and running and kate rogers has been speaking with small business trade groups about what to expect kayla, let's start with you. >> reporter: kelly, banks who are going to be making these loans have been warning washington that the program is not ready for prime-time first, they don't have general guidance, they haven't been provided an application to become sba lenders and there are some more specific questions about the structure of this program that i'm told multiple industry executives raised with the treasury secretary directly in a series of calls arranged by trade groups over the last few days hear what the two specific asks were smaller banks wanted treasury to

increase the interest rate paid if these loans are not forgiven for a company. it's currently at half of a percentage point, but for community banks, they say they'll be losing money to make some of these loans and they want that not to be the case for big banks, they have asked for the treasury to wave anti-money laundering provisions called know your customer rules that protect against money laundering and fraud if those rules don't get waived, these banks say, they won't be able to do business in a timely fashion with companies they've never studied before and they know that speed is of the essence here now, that is, of course, the concern on the industry side treasury, for its part, has said it expects these banks to participate. and it expects loans to begin being originated beginning tomorrow but then, kelly, there is just the overload of the system a back end that has never seen demand like. american enterprise institute estimates $1 trillion of demand from small business exists for a program first come, first

served, that will only provide $350 billion and one industry source says bank executives are worried this could look like the botched rollout of healthcare.gov in 2013 kelly? >> that's what we're all worried about. kate, stay right there we have some breaking news that's coming in on ge phil lebeau joins us nar what's going on? >> just got off the phone with the folks. at ge aviation they're going to be announcing a cut of up to 50% of the manufacturing staff. remember, they're building the ge aviation, the aircraft engines there in the cincinnati area they're going to be cutting that staff down by 50%. a four-week furlough that will begin on monday. obviously, this is because of what we're seeing with demand for aircraft and demand for engines right now. you've got boeing, essentially shut down in terms of manufacturing, up in the pacific northwest. and you've got problems with airbus and its manufacturing over in europe so now you've got ge aviation, which previously announced,

kelly, that it was cutting 10% of the manufacturing staff now they're saying it's going to be 50% of those workers who will be furloughed for up to four weeks. kelly, back to you >> phil, thanks very much. kayla tauschy just told us the government is worried about avoiding a botched rollout of the small business lending program. kate rogers is speaking with the small businesses themselves who have a lot of questions, kate, about this >> reporter: that's right, kelly. we've been hearing a lot of concerns from small businesses and we're learning a bit more about what's been going on behind the scenes. sba and treasury did hold a call with trade group representatives yesterday. and here's what two sources on that call told me. that there are still many questions about program readiness and trade group representatives are really questioning officials if they had confidence that banks would actually lend with 0.5% interest rates to these small business owners the sources said that the officials did not say if they were confident or not, but rather, they simply justified those low rates. it also seemed that officials were still working out how to handle independent contractors one source said, this is likely

why contractors were punted to filing dates for next week, because it's unclear on how to handle them. and an official familiar with the ppp program did tell msnbc gnat official guidance for banks is not yet finalized but they are still aiming to launch this program tomorrow kelly, both sources from the trade group side that were on the call said their biggest concerns were really getting enough clarity here for the banks to pull this off tomorrow. one source told me he has no confidence that this will actually be pulled off tomorrow, because treasury and sba are not coordinated, not on the same page, didn't have answers to simple questions yesterday we did reach uout to the sba for comment on this and will bring anything we get on it to you >> it doesn't sound promising if they don't have answers to simple questions the main question is, how do i get in touch with my bank? i call, but it rings and ings. a lucky few might have an email address but a lot don't, or they might have had a contact a year or two in the past and they're not sure if that's relevant now. at a time when many banks are only accepting people in their

branches, only a few of them are only open, only take them in if they have an appointment it's a real chicken and an egg problem. >> reporter: it absolutely is. we've heard from small business owners, on the actual mom and pop sides who are reaching out to their lenders, trying to figure this out in realtime. we told you yesterday that there was a portal online at sba go.gv where you can search for lenders, but this is a first-come, first-served program. if you doend han't have a lendea could be a big problem even businesses that are in touch with their lender still have a lot of questions about how this is going to work tomorrow that still remains to be seen. >> so if you go online, you can get the disaster loans, but those are different from the rest of the small business program? you've still got to go through your bank for that >> yes, that's right you can apply directly with the sba for those smaller disaster loans of up to $2 million. the $349 billion sba, 7a paycheck protection program loan

issuance that we keep talking about for tomorrow, that you have to go through a lender. the sba is a part of that program, but you have to go through the bank in order to get that fund. >> kate, again, great reporting. thank you so much. kate rogers. take a quick break coming up, raising $1 billion right now is easier if you're investing in health care we'll tell you what vc firm flagship plans to do with those funds that it just raised. we'll speak with a founder who's also share of moderna who has the lead treatment for coronavirus. and we've all seen empty shelves. we'll speak to the head of one of the biggest supermarket chains about their supply chain and what customers should expect you can always watch or listen to us life on the go on the cnbc app. "the exchange" is back in two.

welcome back new york governor andrew cuomo says it's the cruelest irony

that the u.s. is dependent on china for production of personal protection equipment we're going to have more on that story ahead in the show. first, let's get to seema mody who has the latest headlines for us at this hour. see seema? the democrats are postponing their presidential convention. presumptive nominee joe biden has been saying he did not think a normal convention could be held in july due to the pandemic it will now take place during the week of august 17th and will remain in milwaukee. new york governor andrew cuomo says the apex of the pandemic could occur in the next 7 to 30 days he is reporting another sharp increase in coronavirus deaths >> number of deaths up to 2373, up from 1941 looking for a trend line -- the trend line is still basically up, total new hospitalizations trend line of icu admissions is still up

>> that's the latest from governor cuomo as always, for more coronavirus coverage, head to cnbc.com for now, kelly, back to you. >> seema, thank you, seema mody. while a lot of vc funding is drying up amid this crisis, one area that's an exception is biotech. let's bring in megterrell for more right now with a very special guest right now. meg? >> hi, kelly well, two different funds, major marquise biotech venture capital firms announcing fund-raising of more than $1 billion each today. their flagship pioneering arch ventures flagship pioneering says it's going to use this money to continue to create new companies focused on health and sustainability within its flagship labs unit it's going to focus on using ai and machine learning in new ways, and also an area it calls health security. arch ventures has raised $1.46 billion for two different funds. they are early stage investors in lots of different biotech companies, and they also years ago helped early investment in

illumina, the gene sequencing giant. neither says these rounds are focused specifically on covid-19, but both have been very involved in companies with this fight arch venture has backed veer, a company that was specifically focused on viruses and flagship pioneering founded moderna, which is in the lead in vaccine development for covid-19 joining us now to discuss more is the ceo of flagship pioneering and the chairman of moderna. newbar, it's great to have you with us. tell us about this fund-raising round. was it more difficult than usual given the market conditions or did you find people really wanted to put money to work in this area? >> meg, it's great to be here with you the investors that support the kind of work we do arelong-ter in nature. they are endowments and pension funds and quite long-term players. and they have been with us for over two decades now so when we sought this additional capital to be able to start new companies and make a new generation of breakthroughs,

we found a very strong interest in the very nature of life sciences and how they can impact health and agriculture >> well, moderna, of course, is one of your major companies getting a lot of attention now because it is the first to be in human clinical trials for a potential coronavirus vaccine. tell us how you see that path forward going, when we could see something that could be used, sort of more broadly outside of clinical trials. >> meg, as you know, moderna is a company that's a little over nine years old now and the journey to this point in putting together this completely new approach toll medicine, the new drug car, has given us a lot of experience that poises the company right now to go after the particular crisis that we're dealing with and try to develop a vaccine that can be tested thoroughly in the three stages of clinical trials

it's difficult to put a specific date on things, just because it's a very dynamic situation. we've entered phase i trials, it's been widely reported. we'll enter, we hope, phase ii trials we hope that to happen in the spring, early summer and success there will hopefully lead us to phase iii trials. we are, as announced earlier this week with the help of barta and others, very much gearing up to be able to meet the demand that could be generated, particularly in phase iii trials we expect that if the situation continues or worsens, there will be needs for emergency use, in particular with frontline health care workers and we are doing everything within our power to be geared up for the battle and we expect this to be a long-term battle we don't believe this is something that will we solve all that quickly we hope it does in the first wave, but there's other waves that only vaccines will be able to address

so we're quite committed and focused on this, but i'll say that we expect that many others will work in this area and we hope that everybody succeeds, because the worldwide demand for these types of interventions is far in excess of what any one player can deliver >> absolutely. well, you guys are moving incredibly quickly, but mentaler rna, as you just mentioned, it's a relatively new technology. we don't have any approved drugs or vaccines based on that technology i remember you explaining it to me years ago, when you guys sort of came up with this approach. but what are the limitations to that what worries you about the development path ahead what we don't know about this virus and our immune system response to it what are the potential hurdles to overcome? >> meg, you know, i've been in the biotech space for 33 years and the industry has been around for more than 40, 45 years and throughout that time, the thing that hasn't changed is that while we know a lot about

the agents that we use to try to deliver value, we know relatively little about the actual human physiology that we are entering into with our interventions. and therefore, the uncertainties come from exactly how the approach we're using or any other approach will actually have an effect in the human body, let alone many different humans that have variations within them and that's why the clinical trials are the gold standard that everybody has to go through it's easy to anecdotally report some signs of hope, but we have to be very, very disciplined you know, many things worry us in the sense that there's unknowns but as it goes, these are kind of known unknowns. we need to kind of focus on the adequate measurements, the controls, the appropriate-sized trials, and we are very

fortunate to have the partnership with the nih, under dr. fauci's leadership, to help guide the way. this is not an isolated battle there's several vaccines that have been tried before, across infectious diseases, including a lot of work on coronaviruses, mers, sars, and we're benefiting from all of that plus the thousands of papers that are being made available today, in realtime, reporting on what's happening, and we can incorporate that into how we proceed. >> absolutely. noubar, thank you for joining us we love to keep the conversation going as this proceeds >> thank you >> meg, our thanks to you. as always, meg terrell to hear more from moderna, the company's ceo, as well as executives from merck, regeneron and more will join cnbc in an interactive virtual event on the civil right against coronavirus. this is happening on may 12th. mark your calendars. to learn more and request

invitations, go to cnbc.com/healthyreturns. coming up, grounded. the president appears to be weighing whether or not it's time to shut down the skies. can he and what will it take we'll get into that. and fema is making efforts to coordinate medical supplies around the world in the wake of the virus. we're going to look at how they're getting spliupplies here and how they're being distributed. stay with us this piece is talking to me. yeah? so what do you see? i see an unbelievable opportunity. i see best-in-class platforms and education. i see award-winning service, and a trade desk full of experts, available to answer your toughest questions. and i see it with zero commissions on online trades. i like what you're seeing. it's beautiful, isn't it? yeah. td ameritrade now offers zero commissions on online trades. ♪

welcome back let's take a look at the markets right now. about 38 past the hour we're losing steam in the afternoon. remember at the top of the hour, we were up more than 300 points. at the highs, we were up 500 now up just 93 the s&p still up about two-thirds of 1% we may be seeing this move lower

on the back of a "wall street journal" reporter tweet going back to the oil story today, saying that saudi's officials say that president trump's talk of a 10 million barrel a day reduction on oil is an exaggeration right now, quote unquote. oil didn't move that much on the news, though the commodity there is still up, well, it's up about 21%. with the highs, we're up about 24, 25%. it has come off a little bit that might explain what's happening in the broader market. honing in on the sectors, they're just fractionally, energy still leading the way up 6.5% utilities also in the green by a little more than 1%. within the dow in terms of your movers, chevron is still leading, exxon, as well. chevron still up 8%. the laggards include walgreens and once again boeing. it's down about 6% well, with social distancing firmly in place throughout the entire month of april now, people are continuing to stock up on food and supplies, and

that's putting pressure on grocery chains across the country. frank holland joins us now with more and with the ceo of stop 'n' shop >> it's one of many around the country where the shelves look like this in recent weeks. completely cleared out as americans stock up on sanitizer, toilet paper, and even staples like meat and bread. these images were posted by a stop 'n' shop customer on social media, but we've all seen them first, we want to share how stop 'n' shop is giving back during the coronavirus outbreak they're giving 5,000 fresh and free meals to first responders gordon, thank you for joining us tell us, what led you to make these donations? >> i think, obviously, the medical workers are at the sharp end of this yourk, they're working incredibly hard and we heard that they were having difficulty getting fresh food,

and therefore, we decided that we would offer 5,000 and 6,000 meals a day. >> you gave us a list of the top five items that have been the best sellers since this outbreak came out no surprises here. toilet paper, sanitizer, things like that. but when we go to the store, sometimes we can't find them at the same time, we hear, there's plenty of supplies, don't stock up where's the weak link in our grocery supply chain what's going on? w why do we go to the store and not able to get the things that we want? >> we've been at this now for five weeks in the first two to three weeks, there were a lot of panic buying people were stocking up on toilet paper, sanitizer, et cetera they were stocking up on canned goods and pasta. and really, the supplies outstripped demand drastically and we're now in the process of catching up. there's plenty of product in the system no one's going to go hungry. no one's going to sort of miss out. but we just have to get back to normal of purchasing levels. >> gordon, it's kelly here back at the studio.

you guys were early to announce that you would have this early hour for seniors and other vulnerable people in the population to come shop. i wonder, though, if a lot more still needs to be done to change the grocery experience, because we hear companies like walmart might be considering one-way aisles when i've been to the grocery stores, it's a little bit of mayhem everybody's still trying to stay a little bit further apart, but we know we're not doing it perfectly. and i wonder that you could do what we've seen in other countries and check people's temperatures maybe coming in and out. i know it sounds a little crazy, but maybe's nothing crazy these days >> that's for sure it's been a roller coaster ride for five weeks but every day, we're sort of looking at new ideas and new ways of working. we're working with different states so in the one-way system you've talked about, we implemented that in connecticut. we're sharing that with the other states and we're talking with the massachusetts senator at the moment, the governor at the moment

and trying to sort of influence that these are good ways of working. so we've documented the process and practices and we're happy to sort of work with anyone to implement. >> let's talk about online delivery and delivery of groceries. since this yououtbreak started,o you think that will be sustainable? >> i think when we come out the other side of this, which we will, we'll be in a different world. i think people have really sort of wanted ecommerce. it's outstripped capacity. ning almo i think almost any retailer, including amazon and instacart and people will want this service. we're coming out the other side in a different place and this will accelerate the optic of ecommerce >> all right, gordon reid, the president of stop 'n' shop supermarkets, thank you and great work donating those meals. >> that's where my parents shop.

frank, thanks so much. my thanks, as well that's why i'm like, check temperatures, keep them safe tune in for msnbc's special report "path forward." you can catch marcus lemonis, kevin o'leary and sheryl sandberg on what her company is doing to help. you don't want to miss it. that's tonight live at 7:00 p.m. eastern time as the president considers a domestic flight ban, travelers are already staying home how about this yesterday, just 136,000 people went through tsa screening that's compared over 2.1 million during the same day last year. so we'll talk about what's behind the administration's thinking and if it will come to pass after the break plus, a look at the shares of the airlines today, they're back in the red united down 5% similar decline for american, the others just a little bit outperforming, so to speak we're back in two.

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we see engineers simulating the future to improve today. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. won't be a new thing. and it won't be their first experience with social distancing. overcoming challenges is what defines the military community. usaa has been standing with them, for nearly a hundred years. and we'll be here to serve for a hundred more. welcome back let's get to some of the big calls of the day

morgan stanley upgrading bristol-myers to overweight while cutting its price target they're saying that pre-covid-19 they believed the valuation was too high, but now the pullback represents an opportunity, they say. bristol-myers has relatively good earnings visibility during this pandemic, and they see positive pipeline readouts bmy shares are fractionally higher up next, dr horton upgrade to the a buy at goldman with a $45 price target they believe the home building industry is positioned to weather a downturn with low supply and healthier capital they say dr horton can outperform in a weaker environment because of htheir leverage down a percent and a half to 32 today. finally, guggenheim updprading fox to a buy, saying their best position among peers in a weaker but ultimately stable consumer environment. their national news ratings remain strong. the company has a strong liquidity position as well, and in the live sports world, fox is better positioned because they have late season content

the hope is we'll still be up and running by then. fox shares down about half a percent to 22 today. well, the president says he's consider grounding some domestic flights between coronavirus hot spots. >> i am looking at hot spots i'm looking where flights are going into hot spots some of those flights i didn't like from the beginning, but closing up every single flight on every single airline, that's a very, very, very rough decision, but we are thinking about hot spots. >> the president says he doesn't want to close the skies altogether could that actually happen is it allowable, sneak let's bring in phil lebeau and lindsey graham similarly upset you could take these flights from new york to florida, back and forth. why aren't we putting a stop to this >> to answer your question whether or not it's allowable, look, if the president decides he wants to ground all domestic travel, he can do that, although it would be problematic. and you talk with people in the

industry and by the way, when i talk to people at the d.o.t. and faa, they get no indication that that is what the trump administration is thinking about doing. now, when you look at the airlines right now, their perspective on this is, look, we're already cutting a lot of our schedule to begin with they're filling just 5 to 15% of the seats on their flights and when you look at passenger levels, you talked about this before break, kelly. 136,000 people and by the way, that includes pilots and flight attendants and others who were screened by the tsa. that's how many were screened yesterday, down 96% compared to the same day last year so, clearly, people have already decided they're not going to be taking flights and the airlines, they have parked the number of aircraft. look at their domestic schedules in terms of how much they've cut so far we're talking about american, united, and southwest. american has cut 70% of its domestic schedule. more than half at united, southwest, 40% so the bottom line is this when you take a look at another airline, southwest, we mentioned that they're cutting 40% of their schedule they're all out today saying

that they're going to be taking out another credit line. they want to have the liquidity in place the airlines believe if you try to shut down all of the system, it's so problematic, kelly, that most believe it would not be a wise thing to do. is that the t administration says to the cdc, issue a strong travel warning as they have with new york, saying unless it's absolutely necessary, don't fly here. really, what we're getting down to right now increasingly it's medical staff, somebody has to travel for medical emergency, there's almost nobody going out and making a trip because they want to to a certain destination. >> do governors have anymore authority, abilities, desire to do something like that, phil a lot of travelers going back four to six weeks were surprised how few screenings there were. you answer a questionnaire or maybe there was a temperature check, not even. if there was something more beefed up in terms of getting through the airport, maybe

people would feel like -- >> in answer to your question. they could make a decision this is what will happen at this airport. if we decide we want to shut it down, we would make that decision every airport receives federal grant money from the faa and d.o.t. that grant money comes with the requirement they have to work in consultation with the d.o.t. in some mayor decided they wanted to shut down the local airport, it would wind up in court and the decision would be handled on federal level or whatever the court says. >> you can imagine it's the last thing. are they having court right now? are they going to do it -- any way, there's a lot of reasons why they wouldn't work we appreciate it the president tweeting early yr today that massive amounts of medical supply, even hospital and medical centers are being delivered to states and hospitaled by the federal government

we're getting details about how they are getting the supplies. speaking of flights, elon is here with that >> the president was referencing a new white house nishinitiativ which fema charters planes to get private medical supplies overseas to the u.s. faster. some include fedex, u.p.s. as wed as medline and mckesson. the plane arrived from shanghai to columbus, ohio this morning the latest information we have from fema is it's entirely filled with gloves 12.5 million pairs of medical gloves about half of that will go to counties that fema and hhs have designated as high risk and the other half will go into the private market states and local officials are concerned that there's not a lot of transparency in the

distribution process they are saying it's not clear where the product will go and how the decisions are being made today, the chairman of the house homeland security committee sent a letter to every single state governor trying to track down information about what they received from the federal government so far and how much more they need he said he's asked for the same information from fema and from hhs but he's not received an answer yet back over to you >> it does seem like there's a global scramble to get material and china was the first to do it and find materials where ever they could now it's the rest of the world all at once. i can't imagine how difficult it must be to locate some of the stuff in such the high demand. >> all of this cargo that you saw, that's separate from what is or is not in the strategic national stockpile this is all product that is held

by prooivate companiecompanies. it's not being purchased by fema you see what kind of piecemeal effort states and locals are having to go through in order to get the supplies they need >> thanks so much. are those records behind you >> they are. my husband's vinyl collection. >> impressive. you guys have plenty to do with your evenings. i'll leave it at that. good to see you. >> thanks. stocks are losing steam this hour a wall street tweeted about the president skiegs this morning of this 10 million barrel skcut in orioles. the reporter said it was exaggerated. let's talk about this for another moment good too see you in your native environment today. there's such a tight leg between the price of oil and the markets.

what do you think is the most important macro development these days in terms of investors worried about whether we reached a bottom or not. >> we do believe a bottom is forming. it seem like all the bad news is priced in. there's no secret that as you had a guest on earlier that said our economy is like a car that has just hit tree. we all know that it's no secret and we believe it's billed in it's matter of when people can see ahead to the rebound whether it's next fall or next winter. >> would you be going company by company these days avoiding kind of sector investing writ large >> we do take strong sector and industry tilts i was just reviewing my holdings this morning to see if there's any that i want to kick out and replace. we expect a very different market coming out of here. different leadership and i'm just trying to find what it is >> i haven't heard you say that before a lot of times in the past when

we talked about the market, we say you got to stick with the winners. a lot of times it was tech and industries and maybe the financials are are you looking to these days what do you think might be changing >> it appears there could favor small cap value. something we haven't seen for a long time. smaller companies, mid size companies out of industrial, materials. that's where i've been focusing most of my search. >> why small cap value and why those sectors in particular? >> based on historic price and value versus growth and small versus large, appears the sweet spot right now after this major shake up are smaller mid cap value type companies >> you don't know but you're following the market >> correct >> all right that's the most honest answer here we'll see if you're right about that you putting money to work

aggressively yet >> we're fully vested. we appreciate you. good to see you today. still to come with nearly ten million people jobless over the past two weeks, could there be a flood of early redemptions in 401(k)s people need to tap savings as a lifeline we'll speak with the ceo of em pouperment they manage accounts for over 40,000 organizations and nearly ten million people see what nay can tell us about that trend our special breaking news coverage continues after this break. stay with us

when you look at the critical issues facing our world, what do you see? we see a billion more people breathing free. we see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. we see homes staying cooler,

without the planet getting warmer. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. welcome back

tyler mathison not here today. we're all going to miss his presence the dow was up more than 500 points it's hanging onto some of those gains. we're up about 125 now the dow dropped nearly a thousands points oil is higher this afternoon but only by about 20%. the president claiming russia and saudi arabia are close to making a deal on production cuts that's sent energy stocks soars. there are conflicting reports. crude is up about 18%. all of this as almost 10 million americans file for jobless claims in the last two weeks it's stand your grounding number as the virus puts many businesses at complete stand still. we'll have more in a moment. let's start with bob on today's snap back rally. bob. >> we are just off the highs as you mentioned. there's a bit of debate about how real this ten million production cut is for saudi