changes. we'll dig through some alternative metrics that could tell us what is going on with the record claims number businesses trying to stay afloat april 3, 2020. our coverage begins right now. good morning i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. futures look like they could give back a little ground the dow was up 469 points. similar to what we saw for the s&p 500 and the nasdaq up about 1.7% we had that big jobless number

about 6.6 million filed for unemployment in the past week. so 10 million who have gone into this even though it doesn't have the most recent week will watch to see how this turns out. crude oil prices after the biggest hike after one day after maybe 26% after news that joe kernen reported here after the president said what he was going to be doing absolutely changed not only the oil market yesterday but the entire equity

market as well >> yes like i said. you suspend disbelieve of everything at this point don't we came in, talked to him he tweeted exactly what he said. it was vintage trump expects, hopes while i certainly hope so, i expect what has been confirmed bio peck is while they are saying at least 6 million in their meeting. the president said as much as

15 maybe they are talking about overall. >> opec? >> yes opec the market didn't really back off yesterday after the president was racing eyebrows maybe prematurely announcing or hoping for a deal or massage people into a deal didn't back off at all it was up 25 and another 5 food. >> i think it was 26% and change it was the biggest one-day move for crude in history >> then you hear, great, now the president is siding with the oil producers instead of everyday americans that would benefit it is amazing the way things work out i think it is social media partly too >> partly.

>> you think, i thought lower gas prices were a tax cut for everyone not if we allow russia to put our domestic oil producers out of business. andrew >> when you got off the phone, what did you think he was trying do is he trying to push them into something they weren't otherwise planning to do pushing them to do more than what they were planning to do? get it into the marketplace. what is your take knowing the president? i think that he knows that one of the double whammies the market had was the worst day of combination of covid fares and market fears

it got down to 18 or something i think he wants them to do something. he was very careful in his words. his tweet was identical it was exactly what the same words he gave me. where there is smoke, there is fire as it turns out, there is an emergency opec meeting. we'll see. the markets themselves didn't back off the trump haters are everywhere.

they are immediately talking about well he's lying and blah, blah >> the other interesting thing is that trump will be meeting with major leaders and kicking off expectation of those curves. he seemed to knock that aside. a lot of people watching that today too. ceos of chevron and exxon and others too so far, it seems like not but that will be something to watch too. down at one point. now he's a bond guy calling 90

minute moves he is now an expert. i know, god help us. >> he's been right, joe. he's going to be intolerable the tone was good going into the close. it was up 500 or so. ask him what he's going do before noon today. >> let's get everybody caught up to date on the rise in virus numbers that did take place overnight. total global cases have topped 1 million. in the u.s. the numbers have topped 245,000 with over 6,000

deaths the task force is watching areas of the country that could become the next hot spots after new york and new jersey mentioning louisiana, connecticut, indiana, georgia and illinois tests there are coming back positive at a rate of at least 15% right now. >> meantime, maybe the most important story of the morning, mixed messages on the $350 billion small business program the government had asked banks to start disbursing that money the treasury secretary said the programs would be up and running. but banks are scrambling to understand the rules jpmorgan warning they might not be ready

emailing customerslikely sayin they will not be ready to start accepting applications today i heard from a number of small business owners and a number of bankers. i had a couple of big banks and small banks that are concerned they won't be able to begin that loan program today possibly over the weekend, they'll get this out nonetheless, thereis a huge surge of small business going to the banks today. i think that may be some is cause for concern in the markets right now as well. joe? >> all right, andrew we'll see and we'll move along here do you have masks, if you need them >> i actually found a couple that 3m sent me.

it was years ago we had been talking about their different products they sent post its and every product they did >> mine are still at the office, i think. >> i know what you are talking about, joe >> did you get them, andrew? >> i don't know where they are but tell the audience about this story. if it is true and accurate, it is a travesty and disgraced. >> looking at the website, they are photo shopping masks on officials. president trump is recommending cloth face masks when in public to reduce the spread

the president said the recommendation would be coming out and any such masks would be voluntary. the federal recommendation is expected to be similar to guidance that new york city mayor did heish you'd. >> we are advising you wear a face covering, could be a scarf, bandanna it does not need to be a professional surgical mask we don't want you to use the kind of masks that first responders need, health care workers need don't use those.

i couldn't be clearer. leave those alone. >> serving as a reminder to maintain social distancing some people are worried that you don't need to keep the social distancing because you have the mask >> this is unbelievable. i have to say i agree with the administration p wholeheartedly after seeing some of the comments president trump slamming 3m in a tweet last night he announced he was invoking the defense production act to get the company to produce face masks. he tweeted, we hit 3m hard after seeing what they were doing with their masks. p act all the way. big surprise they'll have a big price to pay. they didn't comment. earlier, white house trade

advisor saying they had issues making sure all the production they do is coming back here to the right places shares of 3m, right now down at 134.34 the issue here is that 3m, one of the biggest manufacturers of masks has been selling these to the highest bidder many of the highest bidders have been foreign bidders that is really what is at issue here to say, florida, for example, which is trying to get its hands on n 95 masks was going around the country trying to get masks going to warehouses and retailers, if you will, effectively discovering that a lot of these had been exported out of the country

sometimes were being exported and reimported back in at higher markups. >> what? >> that's what has been happening over the past couple of weeks now with these masks. 3m clearly seems to be at least arguably -- >> how is 3m not responding to this you are right. these are insane 5:accusations. i'm all in favor of the administration following up. i don't understand how 3m doesn't even respond >> every media outlet has been reaching out to get a response they have not commented. we'll bring those comments to our audience when we get them. there has been a number of interviews now with different states that have come out publicly to talk about the

issue. it is not just foreign buyers. you might describe domestic commercial buyers as opposed to state buyers, if you will. now this act has been put into place, 3m will have to push out those masks to the state, i imagine directly or on a priority basis >> how much did you find out let's say it was a couple of months ago when we were worried about italy more and when they were appealing to 3m i guess it was last week or it was different. you wouldn't normally say -- you sound like trump are you an america firster that they should only sell to america. if a country is hard hit, they shouldn't provide any to them?

>> there is a couple of issues the president said it during his press conference last night. there were surplies the u.s. sent to italy and to china when it was clear that was where the hot spot was we were not a hot spot yet let's put it that way. the president said send the stuff. was that a mistake or not? even in the last couple of weeks, when it has been clear that we are a hot spot that some of that distribution has been prioritized. there also has been corporations trying to buy out these for their people as well

>> and that diverts it from the hospitals. >> correct >> i think over the next 7 to 10 days, this is going to get worked out better. getting to where we need to be even though they are ramping up production, it is probably not going to be enough at least based on the numbers >> we'll see did you agree with something trump did? >> joe, yes, you did there are times. at the journalists, i'm the ultimate fair weather fan. >> i have seen that. >> we had a democrat on yesterday. i happily read him a riot act about the bailouts of the

airline. >> are you saving all of these reels. what was your main point that all share holders are created equal. the small businesses are share holders. >> don't give me a hard time when you are interviewing the president and then tell me you are not a journalist >> that's right. let's tell you what is coming up. we'll talk about the pandemic with richard preston, the authority of the best selling book "hot zone." that is from the book about an out break. we'll talk about the small

business emergency loan program supposed to start today. we'll talk about what the jobs report will and won't tell us later today. back in two minutes. we cannot do all the good that the world needs. but right now, the world needs all the good that we can do. to everyone working to keep america strong, thank you.

yeah. this moving thing never gets any easier. well, xfinity makes moving super easy. i can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. wow, that is easy. almost as easy as having those guys help you move.

we are those guys. that's you? the truck adds 10 pounds. in the arms. -okay... transfer your service online in a few easy steps. now that's simple, easy, awesome. transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. visit xfinity.com/moving today. welcome back

it is jobs friday. layoffs are happening so quickly, they won't be fully represented in today's report. joining us with a look at what we should expect and maybe what we can take away is the one and only steve liesman good morning >> good morning. let's be honest, this is usually one of the most fun days we have here with the jobs number coming in today is a different day, a somber day the date of the survey was earlier in the month most of the claims came afterwards

10 million new jobless claims. second, search google searches for unemployment data. the ppp program, we'll see how that works to keep people from being on the unemployment line or remaining attached to their work place by state, california seems to be processing and new york is lacking behind florida and new york as well using the challenging report

here entertainment/leisure, automotive and more with the most layoffs thinking about how deep it goes and how quickly it comes back. keeping the businesses alive for workers to come back to and keeping the workers attached to the work place where they used to be, those are the things that will determine the row bound >> thank you, steve. michelle, it has been a while. >> good morning, joe >> welcome i guess we need to start trying to figure out what this number is going to look like if it is

really bad, what will be worse where are you? down 50,000? >> steve went through it we do have a good idea of where we are headed. for march, people will get a good idea of how much more we have in april looking at the claims numbers and more pointing

to whatever the job losses will be >> did you put out a note where initially we'll see the rate itself >> based on march, it has been ranging. we think it will hit 3.9, maybe 4% in march. if you look at the numbers we are talking about for april, you could easily see that triple the

numbers this month will be like nothing we've seen the real issue is where do we go the question is where do we go from here? how quickly do these jobs get reabsorbed i was disappointed to hear what you were talking about about the h hesitating to these. that will be so key to how quickly these losses will get reabsorbed >> thank you we'll see. we'll have you back on we'll see what happens thank you. andrew >> when we come back, more on

"squawk box. we'll talk about how this period of working from home could change the way we work after this is over and here are some images of the pandemic yesterday across america. we'll return in a moment

welcome back to "squawk box. yesterday for cnbc at work virtual event. tackling the unprecedented challenges we are dealing with at home here i asked whether she thinks the future of work will fundamentally change >> i think the future of work is going to change. the future of life is going to change one of the fundamental dilutions that has been driving us, which is in order to be successful

that we need to be on all the time i thi i think that we are all seeing clearly the price we pay for that >> also talking about the importance of unplugging the debate about screen time has changed a lot. she says, by the way, on screen time, we still need it for work but we all have to unplug. >> it feels like weekends turn into weekdays. everything is all one. i don't know how folks feel about it when we come back, a lot more. we'll talk to mohammad el-erian. and we'll talk to former u.s. treasury secretary jack lew

talking about the economy and the emergency relief bill that is rolling out now we'll return after this. at&t has connected us every day for over 100 years. and we're here for you - especially now, doing everything possible to keep you connected. through the resilience of our network and people... we can keep learning, keep sharing, keep watching, and most of all, keep together. it's the job we've always done... it is the job we will always do. and sometimes, you can find yourself heading in a new direction. but when you're with fidelity, a partner who makes sure every step is clear, there's nothing to stop you from moving forward.

as the nation responds to the coronavirus pandemic, many are looking for lessons from past outbreaks joining us now, the best selling author of "the hot zone. the new book out, "crisis of the red zone." the story of the deadliest ebola outbreak in history. thank you for being with us.

"hot zone" scared me to death. you chronicled how these can take place i'm guessing this pandemic didn't come as a huge surprise to you >> it didn't some of the expects i've been talking with as much as 25 years ago predicted a big pandemic could occur with coronavirus this has been on the radar for some time. >> what is it about coronavirus that is so dangerous >> nature is full of viruss. from bacteria to blue whales gets infected with its own virus. coronavirus live in many kinds of animals out there innature. bats in china and central asia that's the type of animal from which we think this new

coronavirus came from originally there are thought to be around 5,000 different bat coronaviruses out there. they give a bat a runny nose it is basically a bat cold but viruss have a tendency to jump species and find a new host. right now on the planet, there are 7.5 billion people we represent an enormous new unex plored host for these viruss this pandemic is the third major outbreak of a coronavirus to occur in the human species there could be more. you hear people saying this is a once in a 100-year event it is absolutely not

it is part of a pattern of emerging viruss. coming out of the world ecosystems and finding their way in the species can have incredible damage. there will be more in the future we don't know when or what, what we do know or what we can see is that the human species packed together cities with populations of a million or more, greater new york is an example of that with a population of 25 million you take the population of texas, most of it, and pack it into one city. what you have is a petri dish or a breeding ground for an

outbreak the major thing we are taking away from this pandemic is that a pandemic and public health is now a matter of national security >> richard, it is frightening. swine flu was 500 or 600,000 people killed. do we take any solace in that maybe if the mortality rate is too high, it is self-defeating for the virus. i can only imagine if this is ebola and it was 50% mortality it is frightening enough do viruss that are much more fatal, do they have a hard time if the host dies and they are unable to spread or do we have to be worried about something that is 10 times worse than this >> i think we have to think

about all possibilities. if you get a lawyer, the lawyer is there to help you think about worse case scenario. that could be worse than coronavirus. there is evidence that viruss in the short term can really be extremely deadly and spread fast a host population can get cut down by a large amount we are not without our defenses. one of those as with humans is we have altruism, kindness and the ability to work with teams and self-sacrifice we are seeing that right now with the fundamentally heroic work of medical workers across the united states. they are doing incredible,

amazing job of just carrying on in the face of danger and great difficulty that includes regular workers who work in nursing care facilities and retirement facilities they are putting themselves in harm's way to protect us i think with a pandemic like this, any crisis also brings opportunities. we have an opportunity here to get focused on the real situation of the human species right now with regard to these viruss they are clearly a threat. we can do things to deal with it one thing that i think is going to be essential is that snagss around the world, starting with the united states is a platform

for rapidly developing vaccine and new kinds of anti-viral drugs, which can be done it is feasible we have to develop surge manufacturi manufacturing capability we are going to have a surge vaccine in the next few months, the question is, can we make enough-to-so there is a difference it is going to be a critical part of the process. >> you mentioned the workers that are really throwing themselves into the fray with this those on the front lines taking risk to keep the rest of us safe what do you think with those ignoring social distancing rules, flocking on beaches, hanging out with friends in parks and not following the

directions given >> i wrote about the great ebola outbreak in africa a few years back when ebola break out in villages and then to cities, a lot of regular people didn't believe ebola was real they felt it was a hoax and wasn't that serious. people didn't really pay attention but when the virus got into their homes and communities and they began seeing the effects, they woke up fast when your life is at stake, you get smart really fast. in africa, what happened was and i'm sure it is going to happen in the united states when people finally realize that this thing is real and it is a real threat, they are going to go to social distancing. this happened in africa. when regular people just kind of woke up to the reality of it,

west africans went hard core for social distancing. it was quite harsh nobody would touch anybody who looked sick out in public. second, people even engaged in social distancing within their own families it was the hardest thing you could imagine. if a child in a family broke with ebola, the parents had to force themselves to give the child to one of these camps to take the child out of the family to save the lives of everyone else but they would give their child over to a camp with the likelihood that they would never see their child again. yet, they did it it stopped ebola >> richard, we don't have a lot

of time left i'm just trying to figure out all of these things. not all of these come from the same places. do you think that maybe wet markets need to be looked at bats get a virus or a cold is it easier to jump to humans if you are eating these exotic things would it help to shut these wet markets? >> yes it would really help to shut the wet markets. if, in fact, the chinese government with all its powers could do that. what happens in china is that things go underground really fast it is not just the action in china to shut the wet markets but convincing the people that go to the wet markets to buy the meat that this is dangerous. these bat viruss, these

coronaviruses leak out to the population of china every now and then in the old days, villages that were sit waited near bat caves, scientists discovered a lot of people in these villages that show signs of having been infected with some form of coronavirus. there is a lot of traffic, a lot of cross species jumping from animal to the people around them not just in china, everywhere humans are in contact with wild animals. in the old days, a virus wouldn't get into a lot of people it would be an isolated place. people would get sick, it would smolder away and die out

today, we have two things going on in the human species that have never happened before first is the packing factor. more than half of the people on the planet live in cities, close together where something can spread easily like a match thrown. a barn of hachnext is the m. last year, 4.5 billion passenger trips on airlines around the world. think about the human population being thrown into a giant blender and being stirred up if a virus gets anywhere, it's quickly going to get mixed into the population around the

planet these are two things significant to the outbreak. as time goes forward, they'll occur and balloon faster >> richard, thank you for joining us today we'll come back to you again soon, we appreciate your time. richard preston. >> good to be with you that was fascinating when we come back, more fascination. we'll have more on the markets and the latest details on the spread of the coronavirus. look at the biggest decliners of the s&p 500. led by carnival and retail names taking the big leg down. we are back in a moment.

♪ ♪ why do things that are supposed to make life easier sometimes feel so complicated? ibm watson is different. it's ai that works on any cloud to help your business tackle problems... from building smarter cars to predicting sales trends to improving customer service... without slowing you down. ♪ ♪

won't be a new thing. and it won't be their first experience with social distancing. overcoming challenges is what defines the military community. usaa has been standing with them, for nearly a hundred years. and we'll be here to serve for a hundred more.

many small businesses have shut their doors but the bills are still piling up. many lenders are voicing their own concerns and doubts calling the sba's expectations unrealistic. we're hearing from some lenders that are not going to participate today. >> the administration has been challenged to get this right they're getting money to small businesses first and foremost but balances the need for speed. as businesses are shut they are struggling every day with the administration and the policy

demands around fraud and making sure they get this right by having the banks administer this, it does have a massive distribution network in place but the sba programs do have certain policies and rules that have to be sort of followed. and so getting those rules and the policies set, i think we've got all the rules we needed last night, the final applications and so, you know, the banking industry is hitting the ground running this morning. >> so what is your expectation about the banking industry hitting the ground running this morning? because there is a sense among some of the bigger banks, biggest banks, i know you worked with the sba for a long time, the other banks have not, about how quickly they're going to be able to on board people, especially people who haven't historically had an account in particular cases at a particular bank. >> right the kyc, know your customer requirements are very real and so for a bank with existing customers, that will be an easier lift than it will be to

reach out to new customers as you said, we've been in the sba business and are very active in it. we feel very comfortable with the program and the rules and different banks are going to have to react to that and figure out and be comfortable with the documentation, be comfortable with the calculation of payroll, the calculation of forgiveness that's going to come and the government guarantee that stands behind that loan. >> just on a very practical basis. you get the guidelines last night. you said you are up and running today. for what you know about the rest of the industry and how quickly and easily or difficult, challenging it might be for them, in terms of days, i hope not weeks, is your expectation that some of the big banks that aren't necessarily on board this morning will be so by monday >> so i think the administration did a really good job of simplifying the rules. i think once people get their arms around that, the amount of documentation is pretty minimal. once you get the requirements around the payroll calculation

figured out, that can happen pretty efficiently with the right documentation to verify. yeah, i expect by the first part of next week you're going to find banks to make these loans pretty quickly. >> just walk through some of the practical implications even if you're a small business owner, even a mid-sized business, you should do what you should be calling your banker and asking for what. >> small businesses are making tough choices every day. utilities, all sorts of stuff. weathering this storm. i think for a lot of small businesses this is a very good program. monthly payroll is the loan amount and over an eight-week period you test the amount of payroll that you have paid out

plus you have a basket of 25% to pay off other things like rent, utilities and that loan can be forgiven if you can document that you spent that money. so for a lot of businesses this will be a very, very good program and they should be talking to their bank. >> but let me ask you a question if you run a retail operation of some sort and your expectation is that you may not be back to 100% or even 50% in three months from now and you're saying to yourself, do i want to keep these people, mining employees on board, do i want to furlough them, can i bring them back? but i don't think my business is going to necessarily come back as quickly as you might need to to make the loan work properly, what is the bank saying on the other end of that? >> yeah. we've been talking to all of our existing customers and fielding a lot of inbounds. it really is a case-by-case basis. there's no perfect answer for

whether or not you're better off with this program and retain those employees. we've heard some small businesses say, gosh, if i can do that i'll have them work on my store, my restaurant, we'll do some minor construction work, things like that we've had others that have said, look, it just doesn't make sense for me i don't believe i can put people back on payroll that quickly or whether it makes sense or not, i need money for utilities, i need money for rent, i need money to pay mortgage. that's a harder conversation because if it's not forgiven, then this does turn into a loan. again, in some cases that loan may be valuable for a customer, too. it really is a case-by-case decision we've been talking to our customers and others calling us trying to help with that advice. >> we appreciate your time wish you lots of luck over the next couple of days and weeks getting that money out to small businesses that need it. appreciate it. >> thank you all right. coming up, mohamed el erian will join us.

he originally warned not to buy the coronavirus dip. tune in r fostocks as we get ready for the weekend. stick around, we'll be right back

investors bracing for the

monthly jobs report. what you need to know coming up. plus, the small business lending program will be running today, but will it work? we'll speak to an insurance expert about loans and what businesses can do to stay afloat. and wall street set to end the week on a sour note as the number of global covid-19 cases surges past 1 million. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen this morning let's take a quick look at u.s. equity futures let's see where things stand this friday ahead of the jobs number that jobs number not necessarily representative of where we are dow looks like it would open down 229 points after a good day yesterday in part because of some comments the president made to joe kernen later on twitter about the idea that potentially something may or may not happen

with the price of oil and what the saudis and russians may do that helped push prices in the stock market equities and oil higher we'll see whether something happens. s&p 500 looking to open down joe? >> we'll talk a lot more about that now we'll start with eamon a group of energy executives going to meet with the president, expecting to talk about the drop in the price of crude. eamon javers joins us. good morning, eamon. >> reporter: yeah, good morning, joe. we expect that meeting at the white house at 3 p.m. this afternoon east coast time. watch for that meanwhile, as andrew was just saying, the president told you, joe, directly first that it's secured some kind of a commitment here from russia and saudi arabia and that there was an agreement to lower the production of oil, which had an immediate impact in oil markets. the president said that again last night suggesting there were

specific figures thrown out by the two countries in terms of their commitment here. here's what he said in the briefing room yesterday. >> russia talked about 10 million barrels. russia and saudi arabia are fighting over this and as everybody knows, it's really killing an industry. hurting russia badly hurting saudi arabia badly it may be 10 and it may be more than that. i was actually told it may be 10, as i told somebody before. it may be 10 and it may be more than that. maybe it's 15. >> reporter: but the russians in particular disputed that there had been any agreement between them and saudi arabia and sort of downplayed the idea that there was anything happening here very much at all. now we do know that those oil executives are going to be going to the white house this afternoon, and we have a sense here from talking to some industry players about what's going to be on the agenda. take a look at what they've told me so far about what the

expectation is one of the concerns among some of the big players in the industry is this idea that the president might impose tariffs on saudi oil a lot of the big players, including api, are arguing that tariffs are a bad thing, we need to protect the global supply coming into the united states. they're also going to talk about royalty and leasing relief we expect conversations about storing excess oil reserves in the spr, strategic petroleum reserve. the department of energy is examining that the idea of jones act wavers could come up in this conversation as well that's the rule that requires you if you are shipping within u.s. ports to have american ships and american crude that drives up some of the expenses there the industry is long angled to get wavers on the jones act. we can expect them to make that push as well the big question is whether or not they can come to any agreement. harold hann is going to be one of the players in the room and an interesting one

while some will be arguing against tariffs. harold hann who is a billionaire and close personal friend of the presidents will be arguing for those tariffs and arguing that the american shale and fracking industry really needs that kind of price support the big guys support that hann is one of the producers that can't make money at the low price and needs the tariffs in order to get the price up to where he thinks it ought to be also, there's some sense here that he's in idea owe lodologicl agreement with the president on the idea of tariffs. fascinating meeting expected to take place at the white house this afternoon at 3 p.m. >> you know what, eamon, we may not be talking about covid just for a brief respite, talking about oil is like -- i almost welcome it. thank you, eamon joining us, mike summers, president of the american petroleum institute. he will be at the white house meeting. mike, let's start here i know that 10 million is --

that's a big number, and you need a lot of cooperation. you might even need some cooperation with domestic producers. do you think that the rest of the oil producers would demand something in return from the united states to get to that number of 10 or 15 million barrels a day? >> it is a very big number, and i do think opec, saudi arabia, russia probably could not do it alone. i mean, if you look at what world demand is right now, we're anticipating in the month of april it's going to be about 80 million barrels a day. that's down from about 100 million barrels a day. so what we're dealing with now is really a demand crisis on top of a supply crisis, but about 80% of this in our estimates is really a demand problem because of the coronavirus >> okay. so there are articles being written, and i'm just going to quote one of them here

president trump is now seeing, and i think cnbc wrote this, seen as a moderator in the world oil talks as he's going to meet with the ceos today. yesterday he said he spoke to mba and putin. is he the moderator? can he extract things? he may use a little arm twisting, oo, i would imagine with the saudis at least will this be successful at putting something together >> look, we are very encouraged by what the president has been doing. we think he's in the right place right now. he's working with the saudis he's working with the russians, and i think there's great unity in this industry that it's important that we work with our allies to make sure that the markets are well balanced, but at the same time we also have to remember that the supply issue is one problem the biggest issue is demand. until we get through the coronavirus crisis, i think we're in for a prolonged down turn within these markets.

>> do you think that the urgency of the situation in terms of where prices are could get these disparate entities that don't get along a lot of times, i mean, it's hard to imagine that, but could you see them come together to try to support something that's in the common interest at this point could we get to 10 -- >> yes. >> 15? i think we've seen i think they said maybe 6. >> i think what you're seeing here is no one is benefitting from prices at this level. the saudis aren't benefitting, the russians aren't benefitting. i think what you're seeing here is people acting within their common interests that we have to get the markets rebalanced the best way to do it is for production to come down in the short term but i think the key point here is that, you know, american producers, we're not operating within a dictatorship. we don't have the ability for one person to come in and say that the price should be x

so at this point, you know, we're, working within a free market system within the united states, not within a dictator ship that can demand what the price of oil should be >> all right, mike you're the president of the api. i guess we need -- maybe we should get kilduff on or something. if you see the market yesterday jump like that, biggest one-day gain ever, and then you see all the skepticism that the numbers are greeted with by a lot of people in the business, do you have an opinion why the market didn't back off or why it seems to be counting on this or believing in this, at least at this point do you figure something is going to happen? >> i do. i do think -- we take at president at his word that he's had great conversations with both the saudis and the russians, and i do expect that there's going to be action as a consequence of that. the united states, of course, has great leverage, particularly with saudi arabia. we're very encouraged by what

the president is doing we're excited to hear more about the conversations at our 3:00 meeting today. >> all right thank you. mike summers, we appreciate it that's what i was anything yesterday, andrew, it's like see who -- do i need two sources for attribution? wait a second. it was like the guy himself just told me so, you know, what am i going to do? let's go with it i don't need someone saying white house sources. there we are there we have it as you say once in a while >> there we do there we do. we'll see what happens when we come back, "squawk box," businesses closing and many are finding the businepandi not covered in their business insurance policies before that, let's take a quick check on the futures we are in the red on the board, 213 down

the s&p 500 off 21 points after grn yesterday. we have the jobs report coming up this morning. "squawk" returns in a moment but right now, the world needs all the good that we can do. to everyone working to keep america strong, thank you.

welcome back, everybody. as business owners shut their door, many are finding their insurance plans don't cover pan dem mix. right now they're trying to get the cash they need to survive,

but it is creating all kinds of problems joining us to chat about the insurance industry is eric denalo he is the former new york state insurance superintendent he was there during the financial crisis and we talked to him pretty frequently because of that. that was front and center to what was happening before the crisis. >> thank you. >> this is really turning out to be a big mess. >> yeah. this is what we've talked about before it's the expectation gap between the policyholders and the insurance companies and obviously policyholders are scrambling around trying to understand what kind of coverage they have. generally business interruption insurance requires physical damage to the property even if you get over that hump and say the virus is a physical manifestation, many of these policies have pretty strong

exclusions for pandemic, epidemic and viral causations. now people are starting to look at -- i don't think we talked about this last time, but there's another form of insurance in the commercial policies where the state comes in and says you can't enter your premises or a business, say there's been a gas leak or explosion on the block, they close down the whole block and your business or your home is there, it's by civil authority and there are policies that have civil authority insurance which is arguably akin to what we're going through now. that also may have exclusions for pandemic and epidemic. >> i try and weighed through this i can understand a business owner saying they had business interruption insurance i thought this was covered

i can understand them saying we wrote premiums based on we weren't covering this. if we were covering this we would have had to charge you a lot more along the way as a former regulator, how do you come down on this? >> so i tend to come down on the insurance side, not because i'm instinctively pro insurance, but the pricing would have been tremendous this is a very, very expensive form of insurance if it doesn't have these exclusions. we see the reasons now many, many regulators were authorizing the exclusions in other words, they knew about the exclusions they supported the exclusions. i think there were states where you were not even allowed to write business interruption insurance without the exclusions because the regulators didn't feel comfortable because of the risks towards solvency, et cetera it's not like i'm taking sides, but it seems to me pretty obvious that the insurance

industry thought this out, tried to be prudential about it. they're not trying to deny claims to deny them, there were never any coverage for this and some of which we talked about before i think that's sort of how i would view it as a former regulator. as you know, there's legislatures out there, politicians that are seeking to pass and propose legislations that would retroactively undo the exclusions that's where you have tension between the regulators, the policy makers, legislatures, the companies and the insurance companies. >> that's a huge question, what legislatures are looking at. lots of other states too what would happen if some of those states were successful in retroactively saying you never wrote the policy but you're responsible because you've got the money. what happens at that point >> what would happen, and there's different versions, i think there's an ohio version,

massachusetts, new york, new jersey so far, but they all basically do what you just said. they maybe create some kind of fund, but the industry ultimately would pay for the fund so i think what you end up with frankly is lawsuits. a lot of insurance companies will fight back and say it's frankly a takings. unconstitutional there's something in the constitution called a contracts clause which was a post revolutionary cause to stop states and eventually the federal government from coming in and abrogating contracts without both parties agreeing to it so there are constitutional challenges in some sense i'm not sure it would be healthy they would say we did this as carefully as we could. if you want to do a prospective fix like they had to do with

terrorism, the terrorism insurance act of the federal government, give us a back stop, the ceiling, we're happy to lock in and write this insurance, but without that kind of approach they are very exposed if the states do this kind of roll back. >> i actually wonder what it would mean for how many insurance companies would continue to write any sort of coverage for business in states that actually followed through with something like this. >> yeah. the new jersey statue is something because it presupposes, it almost accepts the validity and the strength of the exclusions it's not like a gray fight with them, a gray area fight. they seem to in their statute just assume that they're there, assume they're inpep know trouble as an exclusion and then retroactively roll it off and say the insurers have to pay i'm very sensitive to the frustrations of people that's why when we first talked i could see this expectation gap

coming because exclusions and covered peril, all of these technical terms are hard to get their arms around. i agree what you're talking about. people thought this is what they had the insurance for, but this is the kind of exposure that could really, really endanger the insurance system if it's not managed carefully and if there's not some respect for the validity of the contracts. >> eric, i do understand that perspective. i pay for business interruption coverage i pay premiums what do you mean i didn't read closely enough and didn't dig down on it. >> that's why also there's another party in this. there's also the insurance brokering industry generally in between, though not exclusively, in between the carrier, the insurance company and the business owner there's a brok

broker that's why when you see the letters to congress, they're co-signed by the brokering industry many regulators like new york are saying in their frequently asked questions on their website, they're saying speak to your broker. see what your coverage is. they're acknowledging that there is an expert that's also involved here besides the insurance company and the commercial owner but i understand i don't want to diminish the frustration at all or in any way say people are not disappointed and there is an expectation gap, but one has to admit we have a national issue on this as i think i said previously, it feels like it needs a national solution, both retroactively and prospectively. retroactively would be a federal fund or something that would go to help these business owners and not disregard the contractual provisions of the

insurers, and some kind of prospective relief, ala some kind of solution so that the industry can write this again. i would bet, predict that increasingly borrowers are going to face lenders and mortgage jurors who are going to require this if the industry doesn't write it, you'll have a ding on commercial activity thereafter >> right it's kind of like being there for flood insurance after a hurricane or something >> right. >> eric, thank you very much really complicated situation, but we appreciateyour walking us through it and we will talk to you again soon. >> thank you for having me thank you. coming up, chart you've got to see to believe. we're going to talk about the week that was next futures right now are kind of static about what we've seen for the premarket session. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

welcome back to "squawk box. want to take a check on the markets with dom chu who's at cnbc headquarters. he has charts every investor ought to be looking at right now. dom? >> andrew, to your point, we've had a very rocky week. it looks like it will end on a down note. we want to take a look at leadership and laggards in the market on a one-week basis to give you an idea what's moving this week thematically we know with the spike in energy prices that they a're the best performing one it's roughly up 7.5% at this point. also, health care and consumer staples. health care a key focus given all the talk around what the health care industry is doing in

response to covid-19 that's going to be a key sector for a while. consumer staples on the side of things that gives you leadership. the laggards, it's a mix of defensive names as markets have rallied back somewhat over the course of the last week or so. real estate getting hit hard as people start to factor in what's going to happen when people don't make their mortgage payments if they don't, rent and lease payments the financials off 5.5%. utilities down 4% as well. i want to key your attention to what's happening to financials the difference between long term and short-term rates the yield curve. we'll throw up the 2 year and 10-year spread the difference between 10 year notes and 2 year notes at one point earlier on last year we got to below zero. it's been roughly 25 basis points one quarter represented throughout thequarter of last year at this point earlier last spring we were up to 80 basis

points or .8%. we've slid back down as financials, becky, become a key component, those banks again finding some headwinds with the flattening yield curve not a great situation for banks. we'll see if that becomes a hot spot for the financial sector, becky. back over to you guys. >> hot spot so to speak, right >> yes, so to speak. >> so to speak dom, thank you it's good to see you folks, when we come back we're going to take a check at what's moving in the market. plus, mohamed el erian will join us to talk about the jobs report and what investors should take away from the numbers. "squawk box" will be right back. don't forget to subscribe to our podcast. you'll get interviews, original content and behind-the-scenes access look for us on apple podcast or on your favorite podcast app and subscribe to "squawk pod" today.

yes. the first word to any adventure. but when allergies and congestion strike, take allegra-d... a non-drowsy antihistamine plus a powerful decongestant. so you can always say "yes" to putting your true colors on display. say "yes" to allegra-d.

all right. welcome back to "squawk box" and special coverage of the markets and the coronavirus andemic. futures indicated down about 200 and change just about what we've seen static for most of the pre-market session this morning. oil futures holding on to yesterday's gains, historic gains, and adding another 10% so far this morning on hope for some type of truce between rich shah and saudi arabia as foreshadowed yesterday by president trump

becky? >> president trump in his comments to you, you should add, joe. joining us to talk about another wild week in the markets is allianz chief economic advisor mohamed el erian mohamed, let's start with what joe said president trump said he talked to mbs and putin he expected there would be some sort of cut in production coming out of not only those two countries but potentially others and opec that really drove oil prices through the roof changed the equities picture as well how do you follow along on this to do the play by play >> first he mentioned 10 million barrels. it's 10% of the total output, but the message to the market went beyond that the message went to say the swing producer is come beiing bk

on having said that, let's look at implementation it's clear that saudi arabia and russia need not to just agree on how to divide this up but how to bring others in. it's a good signal but it's going to takts a lot of negotiations behind closed do s doors. >> so what do you think about the markets at this point? we go back to the idea that you told us in the original drop that you would not be buying the coronavirus dip at this point. there were a lot of things that we had to maneuver obviously we're seeing the jobless claims 6.6 million filing on top of 3.3 million from the week before waiting for the jobless numbers today and continuing to watch the number of coronavirus cases report around the globe climb every day. how do you look at the headlines and figure out what to do with the markets? >> so i think the first phase of

the market was sharp down. the second phase we entered a couple of weeks ago was volatility around a downward trend. we're seeing this again this week we've had a lot of volatility and down 1%. today it would be down 2%. what i'm trying to capture is we are still on a downward trend but it's less pronounced why, that jobless claims number, becky, is incredible, is incredible it shows you the size and speed of the hit it's difficult to implement. then we have the uncertainty i've talked about. i think we kind of continue for now in the downward trend and

markets are behaving well. if you look inside of what dom just showed us, markets are behaving well. that's because most seg 789s, not all, have become more liquid we've dealt with the liquidity issue. we haven't dealt with the income issue. mohamed, a downward trend and more volatile. it still begs the question that we're avoiding that is does that take us where the past downward move took us that's wa we need to know. you have just as good a chance now and maybe it's okay with you. if it were to make the sloppy bottom we're seeing, you could miss the first 5 or 10% of a

rebound that ends up being permanent by waiting for goodeau. i would probably be okay with that position. nobody can catch the exact bottom if you miss the first 5 or 10%, do we have to be convinced that we already bottomed? >> i think we're going down at a singular rate. when are we going to start forming a bottom we get good news on the medical side that good news is starting to happen but it hasn't reached critical mass. as to how you feel, regret minimization there's so much we don't know,

joe. there's so much we don't know. this is unprecedented. this is highly uncertain for investors. so you're likely to make a mistake. you don't want to, but you're likely to make a mistake what every investor should ask themselves, what mistake can i afford best? mistake of being too early or mistake of being too late? what mistake can i recover from easiest? for me it's very different than other people i think the average investor, the mistake i can't afford is to be wiped out if you wiped out in a bankruptcy, it doesn't come back bankruptcies are capital destroying so my -- for them i say, you know what, wait a little bit yes, you may make the first 5% up, but it's very hard to call this is a medical issue, not a rocket issue, financial issue, this is a medical issue. >> that was my point because

back in the financial crisis we went back and forth. you probably never gave a strong buy signal that maybe you would have in hindsight at that point. i'm not saying it's going to happen this time i don't know what's going to happen this time my point is you're saying err on the side of this conceivably getting a lot worse because of what we don't know and don't worry about missing if we go up 5 or 10% and you miss that, you want to err on the side of not knowing what's coming, and that's my only point so give me an exact -- you think we go -- the ultimate low would be 50% below the highs or what do you think you don't want to make an exact call >> joe, i can't make i would argue no one can i have been pushing hard against it we don't know the duration of the shock. we know it's severe but we don't know the duration. we don't know what's coming next in policy.

we don't know how the restart is this notion out there, which i think is false, that we're just going to flick a switch and everything is going to come back on that's not how modern interconnected economy comes back on. and we don't know how different the landscape is going to look until we price these things in, it's very hard i would argue no one can tell you what the bottom is going to be and when it's going to occur. so you've got to look at this, be resilient, keep your options open and have agility to move once you've got that information. but don't move too early no one can know, joe, if it really is a medical issue. >> hey, mohamed, one of the things you have said to us over the past couple of weeks is not necessarily to sell but to try to upgrade, if you will. if you have a particular equity that you think potentially has problems, try to find something up the stack, if you will, that

might be higher quality. one of the questions i'd ask you is so many of our viewers have 401 k plans or have indexes, mutual funds, etfs in terms of upgrading those etfs or upgrading those indexes, what would you be upgrading from and upgrading to in this environment? >> so if you have indices, you know, it's hard to be specific, but let me give you two. if you have a high bond, sell it and buy investment grade bond. remember what happens in the high yield bond fund the more debt a company issues, the higher its weight in the index. so you are most exposed to the companies that are most vulnerable from a balance sheet perspective. as a general rule, sell high yields, buy investment grade if you are heavily exposed to non-u.s. markets, come back to

the u.s. the u.s. is much more resilient and will make it through this crisis relatively better than many other countries i am really worried about what's going to happen to certain emerging economies, for example. they can't afford the policies that we are implementing and are trying to implement. so it's an up in quality, andrew, whatever you can and particularly avoid default risk default is the one thing you don't recover from >> but just to put a fine point on it, mohamed for those out there who are just holding the s&p 500, for example, continue to hold the s&p 500? >> yeah. continue to hold understand that you are in for a volatile and probably downward journey, but buckle your seat belt because more to come in that index and they're going to come back. >> okay. mohamed el erian, thank you, of course, for joining us again

look forward to seeing you next week have a great weekend stay safe. in the meantime, when we come back, we have new numbers out for tesla. you have to see the numbers. that stock is jumping 15% in early trading on that story. we'll talk about it after the break. you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. make ice. making ice. but you're not mad because you have e*trade which isn't complicated. their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. don't get mad get e*trade and start trading commission free today. don't get mad get e*trade and start trading when yowhat do you see?itical issues facing our world, we see breakthrough medicines getting to patients in record time. we see harnessing natural gas unleashing the promise of clean energy. we see engineers simulating the future to improve today.

at emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. in nearly 100 years serving the military community, we've seen you go through tough times and every time, you've shown us, you're much tougher your heart, courage and commitment has always inspired us and now it's no different so, we're here with financial strength,

stability and experience you can depend on and the online tools you need because you have always set the highest standard and reaching that standard is what we're made for ♪ welcome back to skauk box this morning tesla giving great investment news get over to phil lebeau who joins us now because that stock is moving up over 15%. phil >> reporter: it's popping, andrew, because these are better than expected delivery numbers already you're hearing from the skeptics, the bears saying, look, they lowered down expectations the street wasn't expecting as

much because march with coronavirus it meant the estimate came down to 79,000 they delivered about 89,000 vehicles, 88,400 is the exact number here's how it breaks down in terms of deliveries. when you look at this, the model 3 and y are going to get the most attention you do it in china and a few here in the united states. the majority are the model 3 and model y. total are 88,400 better than expected theproduction number of 102,000, that might be more relevant they had problems in china and now in fremont, california when the plant shut down. now what do we expect for the second quarter the question is whether they can

meet their target. i want to touch on bmw ceo talking about the state of the business as it deals with coronavirus around the world and the ceo telling oliver zipsky telling the reporter that the dealerships have virtually stopped retailing. not surprised. it's hard to find them functioning in europe or the united states. large scale production large scale china production is coming back. whether or not you start to see the sales volume in china is a separate production, guys. there is that indication of positive news coming in the auto sector in china. right now on the production side let's see if the volume in terms of demand is there over the next month or two phil, do you think it's a huge shock if you are turning out guidance for everything under

the sun. why should you hold them to a different standard >> i think you're right. they say, how do we have any idea, a, that production is going to be close to what we think it's going to be and, b, the demand it's all over the map in terms of what people are expecting on the demand side so i think you're right, becky. so that half million figure for tesla deliveries this year, if they have to bring it down at some point, i think nobody's going to be surprised by that. >> phil, thank you it's good to see you >> reporter: you, too. when we come back we're going to talk about ad spending and the major pull back with msonstry executive tim artrg. that's after this break. "squawk box" will be back in just a moment. no one likes to feel stuck, boxed in, or held back. especially by something like your cloud. it's a problem. but the ibm cloud is different. it's the most open and secure public cloud for business. it can manage all your apps and data from anywhere.

so it can help take on anything, from rebooking flights, on the fly to restocking shelves on demand. without getting in your way. ♪ ♪ has stood strong through every dark hour and bright dawn our country has endured. it has seen the break in the clouds before anyone else. for the past 168 years, we've also stood by you, helping you weather storms like this one, to protect your loved ones. and we'll do it for 168 more.

welcome back to "squawk box. the futures have had a little mini rally in the last couple of minutes, although they moved so quickly i haven't seen it in about ten seconds. last i saw the dow was down about 120, 130 points. makes you wonder whether the risk today that we're going to see in about 40 minutes, whether it's asymmetric. now it looks like we're down about 100. what does the market do if it's a really bad number with unemployment, you say, wow, this is worse than we thought it is happening quickly. it's a good number, you just write it off well, you see the bad stuff yet. i don't know whether -- looks

like the risk may be to the down side on the market i don't know how you can have a good number for the market >> it's not going to be worse than the number we got yesterday. but it's not going to be worse than the claims number that we got yesterday. we were only up because of what you reported on the oil markets which drove oil up and helped push those things up, too. we had been down when the jobless claims actually hit. i don't know anybody can guess at this, but what we're really watching -- what we're really watching is what's been happening in media news and in other places, kind of watching the companies doing this we can tell you in media news that disney says it's furloughing non-union employees at the theme park april 19th these are the kind of stories, andrew, that we're watching to keep our own scorecard of how this is happening because it's happening so quickly

>> yeah. i think we're going to hear more and more of this we can hope it goes by quickly. another industry that's feeling pull back is marketing spend. ad industry could see $26 billion in lost revenue. and our next guest is predicting a downturn even worse than he says than 2008 joining us is tim armstrong who is of course the founder and c of dtx company, former oath, former google and friend of the show how are you doing? >> great to see you guys just wanted to start off with something because i hear the doom and gloom a little bit. i think the country's in a tough spot, but i want to bring up a story you guys covered earlier in the week which is meals up with kenny dicthter, j.j. watt,

russell wilson, j. lo. 10 million meals got donated you saw jeff bezos with a billion meals. i do credit "squawk box" and you guys have great coverage of what all the business leaders are doing. i think you created the first covid unicorn for helping people, which is feeding america, which went from 10 million meals to a billion meals in 72 hours. i really hope that you guys know how impactful your coverage of this has been and things like the meals up program that you covered. one of the things i want to talk a little bit about today, also dtx, the direct to consumer economy, we're talking about ads and things like that we're announcing a partner with mount sinai, with dr. davis and rich freedman as the co-chairman of the board of trustees at

mount sinai to use our technology, you guys have it, put it up on the screen, to take flowcodes, which is our main product that we have and allow people to directly connect to mount sinai which is the largest health care system in the tristate area. it's on the front line fighting covid. we've been working with dr. davis and with rich freedman and i got off of the phone with david solomon from goldman sachs. i hope you will put up the code. you can pull your camera out, point at the code and we can start and a banner will pop up press on the banner. it will take you to a donation page for mount sinai. >> we've got the code up you can see it, tim. i think some of your audio is a little bit slow.

the internet -- you can call your old friends at verizon. not as fast as we always want. let me ask you, tim, thank you about your comments and all the work you're doing. it's remarkable stuff out there and you're right, the business community in many ways has stepped up in so many ways one of the issues though that has concerned the world, the media, of course, is the world of advertising and marketing spend. you have a pretty dire prediction about that. i wanted you, if you could, to walk through the permutations with which you think this is going to happen and who it's going to hit >> joe >> can you still hear us, tim? >> yeah, i can my connection just came in and out. i think what you were saying is the concern around media and where things are going we should say, andrew, we're at

the highest point in history of media consumption. streaming media has gone up over 50% in march and, you know, we're in a place right now where media consumption is at a historical high. advertising is going to be at a historical low from what i see, advertising will be down 30 to 40% businesses have kind of looked internally but consumers are more awake than they've ever been i think it's creating what is essentially through this downturn, we have to number one take care of people, take care of jobs, those things, but two, it will help reform the consumer behavior after covid is over i think that's a very unique dynamic happening in the world. >> what do you mean by that, when you say reform consumer behavior >> andrew, you know, before covid there was already things changing, an erosion in terms of analog going to digital in terms of, you know, in my estimation

retail going more towards direct to consumer businesses now you have everyone at home being educated about more digital services, more direct to consumer the offline world is changing. retail stores are closing. you're seeing all the announcements there so when we come out of this you're not only going to have the shifting that was already happening, you're going to have a very fast level of educating consumers around which services are available i think you don't have to look far outside your family and friends to see people doing ticktock for the first time or people buying, you know, more direct ecommerce i think that shift, fortunately, unfortunately will -- >> let me ask you a question though about that shift because part of the direct to consumer proposition is there are so many small startup companies that are trying to take advantage of not having store fronts, that are going direct to consumer, the question i have for you is whether you think those companies, all of those startups

that you see in your instagram feed trying to sell you different things are ultimately going to survive because if they don't, it's going to have a big impact we're hearing from google, facebook and others that they're already feeding that yeah, i think, andrew. strong companies and strong leaders will survive this. very strong brands have been built on the direct to consumer business 26 brands just got together to coalesce on a program called brands for better, which are dtc brands giving 10% of their current proceeds back to covid issues when i look at dtc founders, lots of them, i know a lot of their p&ls just lost david stern and jack welch recently i see the next generation of leaders starting to emerge right now, and i think the people with strong balance sheets and strong business models and strong unit economics is one thing we pre-check at dtx at the time is

how to have strong economic units. there will be a culling of the herd the wework situation started to unwind some of the venture capital allocation >> okay. tim armstrong, always good to see you. please stay safe and healthy and we look forward to seeing you soon becky, over to you andrew, thank you. when we come back, we're going to speak to house minority leader kevin mccarthy for his take on the gornntveme's response to coronavirus and aid for small business "squawk box" will be right back.

flexshares may look simple on the outside. but inside every etf... there are untold hours of careful construction... infinite "what ifs?" and contingency plans. creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. tap untapped potential. and strengthen confidence in you. flexshares. powered by over a century of investment expertise before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

breaking news. futures on the move this morning. well off the lows of the session as the gains in oil continue after crude's best day ever. and it's go time for the government's emergency small business aid program billions of dollars are on the line, but are banks ready? we're hearing two sides of it. and this hour the government's march jobs report, we'll bring you the data and dig through some of the alternative metrics that could tell us what's going on as businesses fight to stay alive. breaking news coverage on "squawk box" continues right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box," i'm joe

kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin watching the dow futures, they were just positive they were up 50 points now they're back to right around the flat line, maybe just slightly positive. that's saying something. we were down for most of the pre-market session down 220, 230 points or so so this is all before this jobs number which comes out at 8:30 i don't know how it can be a good number. yesterday's claims number, as eye popping as it was, the market still managed to be up almost 500 points. oil, as we mentioned, is continuing its surge and is up again this morning i think it's about $26 at this point. anyway, we'll see what happens with the dow treasury yields have not been the story. been more of the equity markets and the oil markets. treasuries down at aroun around .59, .58 or so on the tape

today marks the rollout of a massive aid program meant to help small businesses weather the economic pain from the coronavirus, but it was scaled up very quickly and there are some questions as to whether the banks are ready and how this whole thing works. kayla tausche has been tracking all of this down she joins us with more on that front. kayla, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, becky. for the 1800 or so banks that are already small business administration lenders, they will likely be able to flip the switch on this program today for the other 3400 banks in this country who have not previously participated in these programs, it's going to take a little bit of time to get on board. sba and treasury gave much needed guidance. a lot want to take a few days to understand the program and understand exactly what it means and how they can most smoothly roll it out to their customers this morning j.p. morgan chase and citi bank's websites say they won't be ready today but likely early next week i'm told by two industry experts

they're eyeing the middle of next week to have all of the banks online it will not be an immediate transition the guidance did show the breaking evenibreak ing even on the loans. if a borrower misrepresents their costs, they're not on the hook for that. to be sure, there is a lot to study here, but banks are still expected to participate in this program. aba president rob nichols in a statement said, we should all remember that this is an unprecedented expansion of sba lending that will take some time before it's fully functioning though noting that he expects all banks to participate last evening at a white house task force briefing the treasury secretary when asked about some of the hiccups in rolling out this program said it's still important to get this money out

as soon as possible. >> we now need to execute. we need to get money to small business and american workers, and that's what we're doing. we've heard feedback from lenders, community banks, regional banks, and we spent the last 24 hours making the system even easier. so this will be up and running tomorrow >> reporter: after hearing all of that from the industry, they will surely now hear from all of these small businesses i know i have. all of these companies that are trying to apply for this aid who are looking for instruction and direction on how to get it and how quickly will it be ready becky? >> kayla, why do the banks want to relax some of the anti-money laundering situations? how would that help things >> reporter: it seems a like

an antithetical here's a real world example. in kalamazoo, michigan, they said their local credit union told them they are not participating in that program. they are going to have to find a new bank, build a new relationship in order to qualify for one of the loans and get the aid. that bank is going to have to study the financials of the company, back story and exactly what they do the change that the treasury made is if the company misrepresents the financials, the government is on the hook. if they're a russian laundromat or another organization, this is just a front, that's why they have to not do this as hastily as they want to. >> kayla, thank you very much. joe? >> thanks, becky joining us now for more on the coronavirus relief package, house majority leader kevin mccarthy leader, it's always good to see you. there's -- >> good morning.

>> i can't imagine this comes off without some hitches you know we're going to hear all about them in general, this is a program that can be implemented by the government and be successful to help small businesses out, leader >> look what we have done in the short amount of time we're going to get billions of dollars out to small businesses who need it. many of them are shut down think about what the program does i give the federal government and secretary mnuchin credit he listened to the bank, made the reforms, we are keeping people employed, doors open. you can get a loan for short term government guarantees it you don't have to fill it out with the sba that will make it work faster. if you use that money to pay your rent, pay your utilities, pay your employees, that is a grant. that's no longer a loan. 75% utilize the pay your

employees, keep people working for the next two months, get us through this, that is a grant to you and as a former small business owner, that's what i would be looking for that would keep my doors open. if i'm a risk. this is a prom that will have them stay alive, keep people employed so they're not unemployed >> leader, wanted to get your thoughts we had a debate on our air yesterday with senator durbin about the bailouts of the airlines clearly the airlines are a critical and necessary part of our economy and anything we do to keep them in the air, keep their employees working is clearly important. the question though is zsh th-- i'd ask you is whether their shareholders are somehow critical or special and how you can justify to taxpayers and

americans why saving the shareholders of the airlines was so important >> well, it's not saving the shareholders of the airlines what we're doing is keeping people employed. if you watch what we did, an airline is like any other company where they can go in, because they're more than 500 employees, and get a secure loan but there's a portion of this today airlines that we provide to them like a small grant it's not for them to buy -- they can't buy back their stock or anything else. what it does, it's a guarantee to keep their employees on we're supplying them money just like in small business that their employees stay on that they're not unemployed get us through the next -- >> leader, it's reversed though. leader, it's reversed. the grant is up front. unlike a small business, if they decide they can't keep these employees on, they don't get the money granted back to them on the back end this money is given up front the other thing i was going to add to this conversation is one

of the things we've seen is that the airlines over the past decade is the airlines have prevented the government from getting access to people's information, flyers' information so that in the event of a pandemic and the cdc and others have been calling for this for over a decade, for the airlines to actually provide this information so they could do tracing to avoid the situation we're in, and the airlines are lobbying and have lobbied successfully even in this bill against that what do you make of that >> i think the airlines should work with us because it keeps everybody safer. >> but on a pandemic level right now, we're in the middle of a pandemic and they aren't and you're giving them the money anyway >> i just flew on an airline yesterday to come here last night to have a meeting in the white house. there were 17 people flying on a plane that held 200. i know what's flying now is only

6% of the others those are thousands of people who have joined the unemployment line so the resources go to the employees themselves the other is a guaranteed loan from government that gets negotiated by the treasury secretary if there is something more they have to give back. they cannot have a buyback and they cannot give bonuses what we are dealing with is a crisis that's coming upon us very rapidly we're trying to make sure help is provided through the cares act so it goes to the hospitals and modern day soldiers protecting us. it's going to make sure we keep people employed. there are some things that are not perfect. somebody may not have a geed to us are health and employees staying on the ground. if it's not 1 50 perce00% curedl underweigh keeping people employed. >> are you on board, leader, for

a phase 4? is that one bridge too far the president has a point about when is a time to do some infrastructure i mean, rates are very low and maybe it is a good time for that finally. >> we have just passed three bills. the largest ever made in american history, more than 2 trillion i think our focus should be implementing those and making sure they're working if you are going to do a phase 4, i'm one that agrees that infrastructure is important. looking how legislation is made and what the speaker is requesting, it's not about infrastructure it's about a green new deal, it's about planned parenthood, it's about sanctuary cities and it's about changing election all the things that she held up the c.a.r.e.s. act for a week. we would be talking about implementation had she not done that whatever we do in the next phase should be targeted, should be at the recovery time of when we need to do it. right now you should focus on

implementing the trillions of dollars we just passed keeping people's health and secure and keeping people employed that's what the whole focus should be right now. congress is not in i'm here i don't know that anybody else is from that stand point the speaker now wants to create a select committee to oversight after the last bill we did so with one by the president and one by congress that all of the leadership appoints. i don't think you need that as well it seems more political than the care of the hard-working americans that we should be focused on. >> you wrote a letter to -- i don't know if you discussed it yet, secretary pompeo regarding oil production, and then we saw yesterday that the tweet from the president about -- you know, about whether mbs and russia really agreed or not to cut. do you -- what are your

comments what did you say to pompeo and what do you think the efforts -- are they going to bear fruit to what extent 10 million barrels sounds like a lot. >> it does sound like a lot, that's what we need to do. that's why i'm here. i'm going to be meeting with the president and the people in the energy field in the white house. in my district, it's one of the most important jobs we have. we produce the second amount in any county in the nation we're in the middle of a crisis of the coronavirus we're having a manmade crisis in the energy field as well with saudi arabia producing more, laying thousand of people off. with them fighting together, that's something we do not need. i want to thank the president for leaning in yesterday's tweet was very important. very important for the long-term safety of the entire world we're going to have a surplus now with the economy turning down, but we want to make sure to protect the energy worker across america, the ingenuity of

what we've been able to do in the energy field making us energy independent the leadership is very important and that's why the meeting is so critical today >> leader, we appreciate it. thank you, and you're going to be with other people, keep your distance and, you know -- good luck stay safe. >> we'll stay safe out there thank you. all right. we should -- >> when we return, a lot more -- go ahead, joe. >> speaker pelosi, 9:30 eastern time wanted to remind everyone for that all right. when we come back, the latest on the worldwide battle against the coronavirus. we'll give you total cases they've now topped 1 million former fda commissioner dr. scott gottleib is going to join us as we make our way towards the end of another week in what is clearly a changed reality at the bottom of the hour, the

march jobs report. you don't want to miss it. we'll talk about this week and upcoming data. check out the futures right now as we head to a break. you're looking at the dow off 124 points stay tuned, you're watching "squawk" on cnbc

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning 3m is responding to president trump's defense production act order. this morning in a statement the company says it looks forward to working with fema to implement the order. 3m ceo is going to join the gang on "squawk on the street" in the next hour. just to put a fine point on the statement. they do acknowledge while

they're working with the united states government to ramp up production of masks and other equipment, they say we're currently manufacturing -- currently also exporting some of this material to places, including canada and latin america where they say there is a humanitarian -- significant humanitarian implications of ceasing respiratory supplies to places like that ceasing all exported respirators would likely cause other countries to retaliate and do the same as some have already done if that were to occur, the net number of respirators being made available to the u.s. would actually decrease. that is the opposite of what we and the administration on behalf of the american people both seek they also seem to acknowledge that there are also problems of price gouging saying we continue to act on reports of price gouging and unauthorized reselling related to 3m respirators. this activity is illegal and

unethical. they're working with the u.s. attorney general and attorneys general of every state to make it clear 3m has not and will not raise prices for respirators and are offering our assistance in the fight. in this case it appears they're implying and blaming distributors there are half a dozen distributors distributing their products we'll look forward to that interview in "squawk on the street" in a few minutes. >> obviously it's pretty nuanced. it will be great to hear from the ceo. i'll be paying very close attention to that, too in the meantime, the number of coronavirus cases in the world has topped 1 million with nearly 1/4 of those cases right here in the united states. more than 6,000 people in the u.s. have died from that virus and joining us right now as he does almost every day to talk about it is former fda commissioner dr. scott gottleib. he's also a cnbc contributor and he serves on both the boards of pfizer and illumina. it's great to see you.

i use you as my touch stone to run through everything i've been thinking about overnight what i've been thinking about a lot lately is what happens with asymptomatic cases how are they spread? how do we control this if we don't have enough tests to test the people who are on the front lines, some of the health care workers at this point, how can we possibly get to the point where we have enough tests to make sure we're testing even people who are asymptomatic to make sure it's okay to go back to meet maybe the rest of your family, go back to work, go back to school? >> well, we're not going to be able to, becky that's the challenge with this virus is there are so many people who have mild disease or asymptomatic, anywhere from 10 to 20% if you look at the studies are asymptomatic a lot have mild disease. that's why it's such a dangerous pathogen if you think about sars and mers, those were very deadly and when they got infected they got sick they were easily identifiable.

if you had 100,000 cases in a city and you'll know it. you could have 1,000 in a city and might not know it. a small percentage would present with influenza-like symptoms that's what happened in seattle. that's why this pathogen is so lethal and so deadly we talked about it hitting that sweet spot early on. in january we were talking about that on the show it occupies the sweet spot in being virulent enough to cause problems and transmissible enough to spread easily. the asymptomatic spreaders are part of it there was a study in "lancet" that show that people that were mildly infected didn't develop full antibodies for two weeks and they continued to shed virus for two weeks after that you can surmise that they probably are if they are shedding virus, can you get a positive test. chances are there's a risk they can still spread it.

that's another thing that makes the virus risky or makes it spread very easily after you get sick with it, you don't clear it right away. some people seem to shed it for a period of time >> that's hugely important, even friends i have who are health care workers, nurses and doctors are being told that as soon as they feel better, they should get right back to work they're also being told there's an assumption that every health care worker has been exposed if you're not very sick, we're not going to test you. how is this even possible? >> some places are retesting people to see if they've cleared the infection. some of the guidelines do have a period of time that you want to wait before you get back to not taking precautions around the potential to spread the virus. there's now enough literature that shows that people don't clear it right away. so you see people with antibodies but still with the virus that they appear to be shedding and with a lot of other viruss or some other viruses, after you develop antibodies from the

virus, you no longer have the technical virus. this one is different. turns out with the number of health care workers exposed and developing antibodies for the virus, they have developed some level of immunity, i think the percentage is lower than what we think. more on the lower end of 10% or less and cities that are heavily exposed, 20 to 30% there are a vast pool of people who have already been exposed and have neutralizing antibodies, have immunity to it. i think that's probably overstated when we do the serology tests on populations, even heavily populated cities like new york, it will be in the lower digits the view that the virus is spreading for a while and we didn't detect it is probably not the case every country that this virus has gone into has been fairly consistent 80% of people develop mild to moderate disease 10 to 15% develop more severe symptoms, require

hospitalization. anywhere from 3 to 5% require a higher level of care in the intensive care unit. 1% succumb to the virus. that's been fairly consistent from country to country. there's not millions of new yorkers who have coronavirus and just didn't know it, now they're immune to it more likely those people who remember having a bad bout of some kind of respiratory illness had add den knno adeno virus or not this. >> wanted you to weigh this on this there's a whole lot of people, including the business community, who say, look, the goal here in terms of flattening the curve is so we don't overwhelm the health care system once we've done that and get to even any real back side of the curve that we should try to get back to business as quickly as humanly possible to the degree that the hospitals can handle it, we've done our job. is that analysis the accurate

way to think about it? i think everyone is looking at the duration we see where the curve is. what's the goal? is the goal to eradicate it? obviously that's the ultimate goal in terms of how you're thinking about it >> well, i don't know that we're going to fully eradicate it. there's going to be a low level of spread. as we come down the epidemic curve, there's going to be a low level of spread. south korea is reporting cases every day. there's going to be some background spread of this virus. there might be some background spread of this virus in perpetuity if you think of deadly viruses throughout history, throughout the last century, there was always background spread i mean, always outbreaks before there was vaccines, measles, polio. you always had a spread in the background. >> could there ever be enough community spread >> unlikely. >> that it goes up again and it's a problem in terms of the health care community being able to handle it afterwards, after this curve

>> potentially, and that's what you worry about. i mean, if we don't get control of this, we could have another epidemic in the fall that's where we need a very aggressive surveillance system we're going to have to tolerate low level spread and lean forward and try to open the economy and contain the cases that are going to emerge there's going to be small outbreaks. dr. gottleib, thank you. we'll check in with you again next week. have a good weekend. >> thanks a lot. coming up, the jobs report for march. we're expecting tosee the coronavirus start to impact the hiring data, but we're going to also talk about the full range of numbers investors and economists should be paying close attention to then we'll speak with former treasury secretary jack lew on the $2 trillion relief passed by congress and the small business relief program today take a look at the furutes

they have worsened again after turning positive, the dow down by almost 200 points. at we. to everyone working to keep america strong, thank you. haveworking together well allsince we've gone mobileeen with the now platform? there's no friction at all. it's neat to see the office running so smoothly. servicenow. the smarter way to workflow.

welcome back we are awaiting the march jobs report if you saw yesterday, the unemployment claims were 6.6 million, phenomenally high the week before was the highest number on record, 3.3 million. let's get to steve liesman he has that number steve. >> reporter: down by 701,000 certainly more than was expected the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% that's from 3.5% let's see, the change in these measures reflect effects of coronavirus. it seems like the bls was able to pick it up and maybe some of these layoffs happened earlier in the week. the survey week than was

initially believed it says employment in leisure and hospitality fell by, get this, 459,000 mainly in food service and drinking places. notable declines occurred in health care and professional and business services, retail trade. let me come down here. the household survey, we'll pass on that. i'm looking for some detail here by industry. retail trade down by 46,000. professional business services down by 52,000 health care and social assistance falling by 61 the big one obviously, leisure, hospitality down by 459. construction down. everything let's see, i'm looking for something that's up here other services industries down by 24,000. mining down by 6,000 it just goes on. federal government up by 18,000 in march that's one thing and that's about -- let's see, average hourly earnings increased by 11 cents. i wonder if that's the result of

some of the lower paid workers coming off the payroll first i don't know, but that's a big jump, i think, for average hourly earnings. they're up by 3.1% year on year. the work week fell by 02 that for the moment, guys, ends a 9 year 5 month run of positive numbers and it's kind of quaint to think back to the days that we would all go back and say, how crazy is it that this number is again above 150,000, again above 200,000. i was looking this morning in the 9.5 year run half the time it was 200,000 or higher that would end it this time around i think it's interesting that the -- this amount of job loss was picked up that was not the expectation. what we don't know is how much of it was picked up. we know that 10 million workers have filed unemployment claims in the last three weeks. this is showing job loss of 700,000. so it's just a piece of it not every one of those

unemployment claims ends up as an unemployed worker, but there's a piece of what is certainly to come. i've seen estimates of 10% port unemployment rate, 20% for the unemployment rate. nobody really knows. i think it was steven stanley who said economists bring nothing to the table when it comes to forecasting the outlook for this virus and that will determine the outlook for the economy and the environment. joe? >> the previous month was raised 2,000, have i got that right, steve? no, anyway, steve, stay right there. >> reporter: i didn't see that >> oh, okay. let's get some reaction -- no, it's all about this month. really about the future. get some reaction from our job panel, kate moore, jason furman, michael strain and this is confusing, rick santelli, mike santoli. kate, start us off with your observations of whether this is in line more or less with what we should be expecting and what

we can expect if the future. >> yeah, i think it's fair to say that we -- forecasting the economy right now is very difficult. it's very fast-moving. some of the stuff we're getting from economic data, once we start getting into first quarter earnings season are going to be really backward looking. we need to be focused on the future when we're thinking about investment opportunities right now. this was obviously a bigger print than many people had expected i think we're going to have an even bigger print in april we all know that's going to happen the bigger question is what do companies do to shore up their balance sheets, shore up their businesses to get through this crisis and end up in the second half of 2020, the beginning part of 2021 in better and stronger shape. >> hey, jason furman, former cea chairman i guess we never necessarily knew we'd see anything like this in our lifetime, did we? and -- jason >> yeah. we didn't need these data.

we can open our eyes and look at what's going on around us. the unemployment rate right now is over 10% a. the number of jobs lost is probably around 10 million or more these data are way out of date because we're in an economy where just every day and every week things are moving so quickly. i think it's important that congress really did a lot to help provide a bridge for a lot of these people. i think the unemployment insurance reforms are going to protect the purchasing power of a lot of the people losing their jobs the question is, you know, when and how will we be able to restart this economy and, you know, can you put the pieces back together? congress is going to need to do, you know, even more to extend what they did, expand be on what they did, provide relief for states making sure they're protecting low income households and improving the automatic

stabilizers. quite a month. >> yeah, quite a month michael strain, you're at aei. president scholar. anyone making the case that we need to let the invisible hand work here and there's too much government intervention? have you heard that? no atheists in the foxhole at this point >> i think people quibble with some of the specific things that congress has done, but the idea that we should not have an economic policy response to this is one i haven't heard you know, the most important thing or arguably the most important thing congress did in its phase three legislation, the big $2 trillion bill was provide a program that can ensure small business continuity. about half of all workers work for small businesses and those are the businesses that are in the services sector job losses

restaurants, hotels, beauty salons, these sort of things the key to bouncing back quickly is to keep those workers attached to their job. so the program, the paycheck protection program that congress put in place essentially offers payroll grants to businesses congress said, we will pay your payroll costs for two months if you keep your workers and don't lay them off what we need right now is for that program to be implemented well we need the treasury department that implemented it and working well with the banking community and figure out what the banks need in order to get that money flooding out the door and into the hands of small business so that we can avoid a 25% great depression level unemployment rate if at all possible. right now the reports that were in the wall street journal this morning from the banking community are that they're feeling a little confused about the treasury regs.

that's understandable. that's a new program trying to be stood up. we need to get the regs written. we need to allow small businesses and banks to figure out how this program works or we're going to keep seeing months where we lose 800,000, 1 million jobs every month >> michael, i'm just wondering if the specific program itself is maybe written in a way that's not going to accomplish that goal first of all, we've already had 10 million people filing for unemployment claims. that number almost certainly understated by what is really out there. secondly, there's a specific provision in this rule that i am sort of scratching my head over. you don't have to have the people on the payroll and have paid them until june 30th in order to qualify for forgiveness for the loan it seems like we're going to have a lot more unemployment, a lot more waiting by small business so i'm just confused as to whether or not or how you see this program accomplishing that goal of not letting people go,

not allowing that separation you talked about that you want to stop from happening that ultimately until they have to bring them back on until june 30th is it designed the right way to accomplish that goal >> yeah, it's designed pretty well so one of the great things that congress put in the program is that businesses who had already laid workers off, so, you know, those 10 million workers who we've seen show up on the initial claims reports, businesses can rehire those workers and still receive forgiveness for their payroll costs -- can still receive grants for the payroll costs for a two-month period that begins when the loan is originated. there's a specific provision in there to address the situation that many small businesses are in where they've engaged in layoffs where the program was enacted. hire the workers back and congress will pay the payroll costs for two months in terms of the june 30th, you know, the way the program is structured, if you show up and you take out this loan on

monday if you take out the loan on monday of next week, tuesday of next week, which is really the hope, then the two-month period where congress will pay not only your payroll but congress will pay your rent, your utilities, your mortgage interest begins on the date that you take out the loan and so, you know, hopefully a whole lot of businesses will want to do that next week provided that their banks are participating and they can actually get that loan >> let's get to rick santelli, mike santoli rick, please start >> reporter: well, i'll tell ya, from the market perspective, i find a couple of things fascinating. the dow, of course, has rallied. the implied opening is 80, 90 higher it was before the number. we see the interest rate complex ticking up just a bit in the long maturities. so everybody watching and listening thinking, why does any of that matter because at least from market perspective, i'm no doctor

i don't know how this is all going to turn out, but i do know that markets tend to price in worst case scenarios, even though we don't know what that is, at least at this point in time the markets seem to be comfortable with certain information. and somebody mentioned the journal. a couple of interesting articles whether in the journal of financial times, it certainly seems like germany, which in many ways through the business relationships with china, enacted some measures to combat coronavirus earlier than we did, they certainly see some positive signs. their economy and production has been running much higher than many other economies we see certain other anecdotal evidence that there's some peaking going on i will still say that many who believe it's going to be so hard to restart the economy i would agree if this lasts longer than many suspect if it's a couple of months or in that camp, i think congress has put plenty of liquidity on these programs it's more a function of how they get up and running as our guest

just eluded to. >> mike santoli. interesting. rick taking a more positive point. put the oil board in oil is up almost 12% now to date. >> reporter: right. >> i don't know what that is. >> reporter: might be the most immediate driver of just how other things trade, like the credit markets and like equities more than the number we're getting today. i do think it's plausible that the equity markets, for example, priced in with more than 30% decline in a month at least the depth of the initial shock, and we all are in a fog about what the duration is and what the wear and tear on credit worthiness of companies and business impairment, all of that stuff, i think we're kind of reserving judgment on that and the markets implicitly are doing that where the s&p closed yesterday is almost exactly 300 points above the low close just about for this move. that seems to be your buffer between, okay, we might have priced in something bad enough and, okay, it's going to last

longer, we might have an issue here beyond that, i think it's hard to have it stand up to a tick by tick analysis of exactly what the market is saying except those things credit is to me the key swing indicator. >> okay. i want to thank our job panel. thank mike santoli who was just speaking kate moore, thank you. the newly pursued jason furman and michael strain and i said santoli. thank you, one and all andrew >> okay. coming up when we return, a lot more former treasury secretary jack lew is going to be with us to weigh in on the jobs report. this record number of jobless claims we saw yesterday, and the government's multi-billion dollar small business relief package that is trying at least to roll out today. a little later, don't miss a big interview with 3m's chairman and ceo mike roman after the president slamming the

industrial giant over the tweet over the respirator mask exports to other countries we'll be listening to that as we head to the break, take a look at some of the biggest losers this week in ths&50e p 0. stay tuned, we're back right after this these days you need faster internet that does all you

expect and way more. that's xfinity xfi. get powerful wifi coverage that leaves no room behind with xfi pods. and now xfi advanced security is free with the xfi gateway, giving you an added layer of network protection, so every device that's connected is protected. that's a $72 a year value. no one else offers this. faster speed, coverage, and free advanced security at an unbeatable value with xfinity xfi. can your internet do that?

welcome back the government's march employment report showing a loss of 701,000 jobs. the unemployment rate rising from 3.5% to 4.4%. the futures right now as rick santelli pointed out did seem to bounce a little bit off of these numbers. they were down more than 200 points i think when the numbers hit. at this point down about 100, maybe shaved 100 off there take a look as we have been watching the oil boards this morning and oil prices last i saw it was up about 12% a day after that record advance we saw yesterday. and a stone's throw from $30 not quite $30 a barrel yet but getting increasingly closer. becky? >> joe, thank you very much. let's get to cnbc headquarters

and jim cramer jim, i was watching "mad money" last night i loved the point that you were making, that we cannot let the perfect be the enemy of the good here when it comes to these loans that are getting rolled out to small businesses. there are going to be lots of hiccups and problems hiccup is probably too small a word for it. the money is there, we have to work through it and we have to see how this plays out what are your hopes this morning as we think that this could be the beginning? >> yeah. well, we can't have small business be this time sub prime. this is an attempt to make it so that we have something going i'm going back and forth with many different bankers they say they're ready obviously they're going to be overwhelmed. i read through the ad and i got my accountant to be able to explain it i have the virtue of having an accountant and look through it it's not that hard i do believe they will be inundated. i think they will be openly

criticized for not being ready they're doing everything they can. it's not like they put 50,000 people on this we'll have brian moynihan from bank of america talk about it, talk about how hard it is. i know that he's got a lot of branches and he's one of the biggest bankers. i think what we want to do is go right to the source to see if they're ready. this is something that it is urgent and necessary, and i will have speaker pelosi on later today. she agrees we have to do this we're talking about literally tens of millions of jobs we're talking about companies never re-opening when i read it, i think it's quite good for business people because of the two parts, the 10,000 but then also being able to get reimbursed for workers you don't layoff i know also there's lots of companies that that's already too little too late. that's where we have to figure out what to try to do. >> right i guess that's going to be the second derivative of the people who don't get help, the problems

that kind of pop up along the way. and i guess some of the unintended consequences that might come through with some of these things companies, small businesses saying, okay, if i take this loan and then this lasts for longer than i expect and i can't bring my people back that quickly, am i ever going to getp having to lay them off because this goes on longer than anyone is anticipating? that's the unknown >> there was a lot of chaos yesterday. a lot of banks had conference calls with small business people and trying to explain. i want to ask brian when we talk to bank of america again, this was done to help small business for employees that work, this was not a bank bailout it's different from 2007 and 2009 secretary mnuchin worked to be able to have it be bipartisan. i think people want to make it so there's a fight here, that's not the notion this is a war against covid. the way you have to fight this is you have to keep these companies alive.

it's nothing to do with what they did it's covid you had a great segment about insurance. another wrinkle about business interruption what do you do if the government closes your company? isn't that some sort of act of something? but we know that without this, subprime we will never be able to untangle it. >> thank you we'll watch closely with bank of america, nancy pelosi and 3m see you in a few minutes and before that, coming up, former treasury secretary, jack lew on the economic damage from the virus. next hour, as we mentioned, house speaker nancy pelosi going ll talk to cnbc about the roout of the government's relief package poppy come quick! -what's going on?

something huge... like a lot bigger! is coming to your home. wait for it. happy birthday. what a troll. welcome back to "squawk box. the march employment report

showing a loss it is an unemployment report right now of 701,000 jobs last month. because the data was collected in the middle of march, we know it still doesn't capture the true impact of the coronavirus related layoffs so far joining us to talk about jobs, the government's $2 trillion relief package and what may come next is jack lew, former treasury secretary of the united states good morning to you, mr. secretary. thank you for joining us first on the jobs numbers, where do you think we are and how bad do you think it gets >> good morning, andrew. good to see you're all well. i think if you look at the jobs numbers, there should be no surprise they're showing an increase, if anything it understates the impact it's clear when you shut the economy down, t10 million peopl are applying for unemployment, out of work, looking towards the future the question is not to overreact to the numbers which is what we expected, whether a little above

or below expectations and think about what we're doing to make sure people have what they need while they're unemployed or out of work and how do we make sure the economy can be turned back on as quickly as possible. that recovery is the thing that determines where the economy goes in the future i think when you're looking at a recession that's caused by a public health crisis, everything is driven by the health issues we can make sure we maximize the chance so we come out of this as quickly as possible. >> let me ask you about those policies, including the $2 trillion package that's been put together today, of course, the small business loan program is supposed to begin in earnest, we're hearing some questions and concerns about how quickly it's going to roll out. some banks still trying to go over the information in terms of how it's put together. your assessment of that program and whether you think it's going

to be enough >> first of all, we have to embrace the enormity of the undertaking. we're talking about a volume of activity that we've never seen out of the small business administration, we've never seen out of the lenders who participate in it. so the execution of this is absolutely critical to the success. let's remember the goal here the goal here is to make sure that people have money to live on while the economy is shut down and that businesses are still there to turn on the lights when we get through this. that means we have to suspend some of the normal considerations which frankly were central to my policy considerations for the three decades i was in government. usually you ask a lot of questions about efficiency you ask a lot of questions about falts payme false payments you ask questions about moral hazard that's not really the concern here the concern here is getting money out quickly. getting businesses and people through the moment now, when you look at what is being rolled out, it's a little

bit of a contradiction on the one hand, there's 100% bank guarantees, on the other hand, if they have to underwrite these loans. i hope the rules make it clear there won't be micro management so if there's a false piece of information that a bank didn't know, that they have to worry about their exposure on that it's okay to make some mistakes here if we get most of the money out to the right place the challenge is not to get it perfect. it's to get it out and to be close. i think that's very different from the largest businesses where there's a proper concern for very, very detailed oversight because of the amounts involved and the resources that those businesses have to get through this crisis whether or not the government assistance is there. for these small businesses, it's a matter of life and death

>> so what do you suggest as it relates to big businesses? >> i think on big businesses there needed to be a response. i'm not critical that there was a response i think that the debate in congress, which frankly slowed down consideration for a couple of days, was on how to provide a degree of oversight and reasonable conditions. i think the conditions that they put on the big businesses are right. there shouldn't be dividends or stock buybacks or big employee executive compensation packages. i think the question of who gets the loans, how the decisions are made, transparency is critical it's unfortunate now there's a growing divide over whether or not that oversight will be allowed to work. we are not done dealing with the problems created by the health

crisis there's going to be a need for trust. if there's not clear oversight, if the administration through signing statements and criticizing congressional attempts to have meaningful oversight undermines that agreement on this very important bill, it will make it much harder to deal with what needs to be done next. >> let me ask you a broader question, mr. secretary. long-term, how do you think this changes politics, how do you think it changes the politics of business for so long the world of business has looked for lower tax rates, you know, we've all had conversations about whether we should have higher taxes, lower taxes. all of that is pushed down yet here we are again in a situation where the government is effectively providing insurance for everybody. they have done it this time. we had this ten years ago. you could argue we had this after 9/11 >> i think this is very different from ten years ago the small businesses that are closing, even most of the large businesses that are suffering

have nothing to do with the crisis some of them were in weaker condition going in there are legitimate questions for big businesses that did big stock buybacks, how much equity holders should pay this is a question of a health crisis, giving time for the health crisis to pass and being able to turn the economy back on it is singular in my experience. it's not like anything else. >> all right mr. secretary, we always appreciate your time thank you very much for joining us today >> good to be with you >> we want to thank everybody watching we'll be back next week, "squawk on the street" begins right now. have a good week, everybody. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and jim cramer coming to you live from different locations this friday morning. very busy show today jobs, of course, minus 701,000, ending a record long streak of job growth in this country