for your time today. we realize this is a bit different, but also realize people have all sorts of different questions because of what's happening with this >> thanks for inviting me on >> good talking to you folks, i hope you have a great rest of your week. we'll see you back here tomorrow morning. make sure you join us for that right now cnbc's special coverage continues good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla, jim cramer, david faber with you the coronavirus curve may be bending in some parts of the world. oil giving back some of last week's squeeze jim, the president this morning tweets light at the end of the tunnel but you are warning people against being cheerleaders for not a good reason. >> i just think there are two different worlds there's the health care world,

we want to wish them the best, we like to see flattening of a curve in italy, madrid, new york there's the earnings world the earnings world doesn't bend. the earnings world responds. there are a lot of companies doing poorly, sometimes their stocks have reflected that sometimes their stocks haven't i warn people that if you're going to do -- buy or sell stocks based on what the president says or what governor cuomo says, you're not being thoughtful it takes a thoughtful person to figure out whether you want a lot of exposure here or not. does that mean if we did see more signs today -- some people theorize maybe there's a weekend bias to the counts if we got some affirmation over the next couple of days, what would it take for you to change that view? to say the market is looking through the health numbers >> i think we need to see testing, testing, testing. i would like to see the beginning -- abbott labs shipped its tests on thursday. i would like to see empirical evidence that people have antibodies so they can go back

and eat and go back and drink and go back to work. i think it's -- the question is how many people -- when it comes to the stock market, how many people can participate in the economy, how many can't? how big is the small business loan how quickly are those going out? those are the things that determine whether boards should be green or red, not whether we had a flattening of the curve in madrid last night. >> jim, i hear the same, which is, listen, great, let's hope it's as quick as possible in terms of the flattening of the curve in countries around the world and certainly here and in our home city, of course, which has taken it the hardest in the u.s., but it doesn't mean to your point that people will go suddenly resume normal life in any way. and everybody, of course, is trying -- i'm sure every conversation you guys have is s when do you think we'll get back to -- and list whatever it is. when will my kids go back to school

will there be school in the fall when will you fly again? go to a concert again or sporting event it's unclear, i think, guys, that that is going to take place simply because the curve is bending. to jim's point, one that a lot of people made, when we have testing that is ubiquitous and fast, when we have antivirals that are available, then you can imagine a world in which people will feel much more comfortable reentering the workplace and reentering their social lives in a much more robust way >> so right. carl, i have to tell you, when i hear about the small business loans, i'm cheered when i think do i want to go to a restaurant, are you out of your mind? one thing that happened this week, my daughter uber eated a sandwich from the chatham sandwich shop. she figured out how to do that i thought wow, we're back. you finish the sandwich and you say, wait, i hear i have to wear a mask we're not back can we waituntil there's definitive evidence that people will go out of their houses and go to work and what will happen when we do

i think a lot of us are looking at how china away from wuhan is doing so well and feeling like, wow, they got it down, or did they have it down ahead of time? we cheer when we see a plane that marc benioff helped bring with masks to this country, and we boo when we say why isn't anybody else helping us? i think we've got to get away from the notion when the plane lands or when we wear masks and deaths are cut down by 100, that's the time to buy delta the confluence and the conflation of stocks to ventilators is a huge mistake. it is not why you buy a stock because we got enough ventilators. that's just -- that's sophomoric >> it's a key point. we'll talk about sbuks s tarbu minute, jpm cuts it to neutral

consumption habits largely broken in the united states and may take time to rebuild that's the kind of thing you're talking about. >> i read that note and said wow. there's a number -- 16,000 that are -- 16,000 out of 31,000 that change i think people are eager to go back to what they were doing, they would love to, but they also feel like it's foolish to go now i think the notion of foolish has to prevail unless we're tested, tested, tested, what happens is we think that we might have the virus, we might be giving the virus to someone because we had a triple vente cappuccino with skim wet we don't want to go there. what we want is to say you know what, this is for real when we all feel like we can go back to work because we have the antibodies not because the president says we can or a presidential candidate says we can. everyone is just trying to make it politics.

>> or, jim, when we have the ability to know that we can get tested immediately if we feel like we have any symptoms whatsoever, that the infection rate is extremely low at whatever point that will be. and that there are antivirals readily available and that was good news from gilead we got over the weekend at least in terms of how they're ramping up, but antivirals will be available that will make whatever we do have much less in terms of symptoms and in terms of actual complications of any kind. that combination could be enough to bring people back by the way, jim, for all of that we're relying to a certain extent on our government, not necessarily our state government, which seems to be fending for themselves right now but on our federal government. that's a key question as well. >> i call my doctor because i listen to the president. i say let's get this hydroxy he says people with lupus need it, you can't get it

no, i want it. what the hell? what am i doing? i'm arguing with my doctor that might make it so people with lupus, livi get off and i say ts is ridiculous. can we have a country? do we have one of the most foremost virologists, dr. fauci saying one thing and another guy six feet from him saying another? the president admits he can't write a prescription dr. fauci helped crush aids. i'm thinking, all right, i got to get this or i'm an idiot. then i find out i'm taking a drug from someone who is sick. i finish and i say the hell with it, i'll watch netflix >> anything good >> some remarkable reporting, jim, over the weekend about fauci, about novembavarro, abous big fight in the situation room. navarro this morning saying he's qualified to comment on this

because he's the social scientist, that is sort of where we are >> peters is a jack of all trades i like peter, known him for a long time. is it every man for himself, every woman for herself? to some degree we're in peter want to do what's right, chuck schumer wants to do what's right -- >> there's ways to accomplish it where you can execute things without making an enemy of every person it's not clear to me what navarro's real goal is, whether it is to get everybody in fights with them. he seems to enjoy doing that, doesn't he >> likes to mix it up. >> he does he did it with 3m, with gm, and -- forget fauci, that guy is taking them on wherever they come >> look, i'm not in the business of defending anyone other than people who watch the show.

whom i will defend because i think they're trying to save their nest egg or life savings and trying to figure out what happened to their 401(k), they don't like confusion i got the mask i had some masks i said maybe i have too many maybe i should give away my masks. look, we're americans. we don't have a clue of what to do this is not like where lincoln is giving us a heads up about where to go. you go back, you read lincoln and churchill and you say, geez, people have a pretty serious view, whatever they're the people we listen to, right? george washington. >> yeah. >> our founding fathers, some great presidents, the 16th president, they faced didn't things they faced a civil war, president lincoln, he did not -- he had a cabinet, he had an unruly cabinet but they all were ending up speaking through one, president lincoln.

if i was president trump i would say i read lincoln >> not going to happen >> why not >> because you know it's not we're 3 1/2 years in really >> never too late to learn, david. >> jim, it's that kind of historical scope that defines dimon's shareholder letter today. he said earnings will be down meaningfully this year won't request regulatory relief by the pandemic is only one example of the bad planning and management that hurt our country. we need to demand more of ourselves and our leaders. then goes into some of the adverse scenarios they have run. gdp down 35, year-end jobless up 14 and even with that they say liquidity will not be a problem. >> yeah. look, i like the last part, liquidity won't be a problem i see germany going for unlimited loans. it's great to hear jamnyijamie' voice.

i know he's been sick. we wish him luck how bad is that stock? how bad is the -- how bad are the bank stocks? mike mayo cut the numbers today on wells fargo a lot of people are saying are dividends next we hear from people dividends are not next we look at the stock, suddenly selling for higher multiple than we thought, which is typical of what happens in a downturn, we say that's very philosophical, i enjoy that sell the stock and i think, again, that's the difference between the real world, which is there's the philosophers of which there are many different philosophies versus whether or not i should sell a stock with 14 times earnings where the dividend might go i like to see buying i saw charlie scharf buy some wells fargo. then he can't make the loans, but he's the largest lender. government, will you get your damn act together? any one of us, david and carl,

if we all this weekend felt we were doing something wrong, we would hash it out. it's okay. jay powell should come on our show and say maybe it's tim to waive the restriction on wells, then charlie comes on. i like charlie very much but you know what? it's like -- i feel like it's the back of the cab and on the waterfront >> yeah. whether it's wells, 3m, all -- we're in a huge fighting mode right now. >> 3m. >> as we search for answers. we'll take a quick break a lot to get to. we have not talked about a lot of the diagnostic news oil will be a huge story all week don't go awhe.nyer "squawk on the street" will be backpromotio forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. but you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." as carl mentioned, oil continues to be a focus for us huge updays to end last week for that commodity on the promise perhaps of significant production cuts from the saudis, russians, maybe even including the u.s. but very much unclear where things stand i would also reference, guys, an interview i did with jeremy weir, the largest exporter of u.s. crude and one of the largest traders of the commodity around the world, he's looking for far lower prices and a point that he made that you have made and others as well is they're running out of places to put all of this oil leasing tankers and whatnot, buying very low in the hopes

that it will rebound at some point. as we wait to get clarity here in terms of whether there will be significant production cuts, none of which will be enough to catch up to the demand destruction that's taken place worldwide. >> right i gauged the tankers by looking at -- not recommending, n.a.t., you can see where that s that's the biggest tanker company in the end, what's going on? what's going on is that if you don't have a lot of people driving, you don't have the demand if you keep pumping at 13 million barrels, you do run out of space what do you do you discount, discount, discount it doesn't bring in buyers so maybe what happens is the saudis win they kind of figured out the russians figured it out. they knew how vulnerable we were i would have liked to have seen the commitment that the president talked about last friday, about the big cuts and thursday, big cuts, you come in on monday, would have loved to see, yes, it turns out our pals in russia and saudi arabia have

gone with us russia is not our pal. they're our enemy. the saudis, they are trying to keep the price up because they want to make a lot of money. these bedfellows are certainly not helping the permian and what matters for us in terms of jobs is the permian it is a disappointing scenario if you look at the stocks of the so-called mid stream producers, midstream pipelines, you see the yield is 13, 14, 15, those yields will go that whole infrastructure that a lot of people like because these were -- these fabulous mlps, so to speak, it's going to blow up. it's going to blow up in a way that's so dispiriting for those who need income. we kind of ignore it, but they created a huge number of companies. they'll probably go bankrupt >> all right indeed to david's point about demand. i don't know how you see this, all state will return 600 million in premiums to customers

because you're driving less. most people will get 15% back on their monthly for the months of april and may. that's a remarkable policy switch, just a reflection that everybody is staying home. >> that is -- i don't know that i've seen that before, carl. perhaps it's taken place at some point. the miles driven is dramatically lower. and air travel as well, the statistics of which are also shocking and phil lebeau shares them with us every day a lot less jet fuel is being used as well you have both of those that's worldwide, putting tremendous pressure on the commodity. jim, you know, when you look at something like oil -- you're mentioning so many didn't areas, i continue to wonder whether we will see things unexpected as well not necessarily good, perhaps harmful, but things we're not keeping an eye on. are there things not connected to the energy complex that are concerning for you >> natural gas, very hard to

actually pump. maybe you have to flair all over the place. i know this administration is indifferent to flaring it does matter all state is smart if i were -- there could be a ground swell among the senator warrens of the world to have it so business interruption should be paid by the insurers. that could be something worth watching >> yeah. we will talk to howard schultz of starbucks in a bit here we'll get to bunch of other things we have calls on zoom and others "squawk on the street" is back in a moment on this monday yes. it's the first word of any new discovery. but when allergies attack, the excitement fades. allegra helps you say yes with the fastest non-drowsy allergy relief and turning a half hearted yes,

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you want to know what industry is most in disarray and has the most jobs at risk? the restaurant business and hospitality business let's bring in howard schultz, who knows more about this area than most. always good to see you >> thanks for having me on appreciate the opportunity to talk about the plate fund. >> let's do that there's a gap between when people may get money from their employers, may not given the fact that restaurants are ceasing operations, and it's important for people to kick in. this group is very

disinfranchised. >> thank you as you know all too well, the spread of the coronavirus created unprecedented economic carnage and fear among restaurant workers across the country. as a result of that, in greater seattle, there's 100,000 people who are unemployed what we're trying to do is create the most innovative way to bridge the gap between the stimulus package and get cash in the hands of restaurant workers as soon as possible. the plate fund launched today. we will create an opportunity to get $500 of cash to restaurant workers, the most needy within 48 hours it's not meant, obviously, to create enough sustenance, but these people are suffering from food insecurity, home instabl instabili instability. it's not only the ability to try to flatten the curve of the

health crisis, but we must flatten the curve of economic despair. >> i'm so glad you are doing that we had steven singh on friday night from all-in seattle. what's pretty clear is you guys are ahead of everybody else. i'm wondering if that's because you were the original epicenter of the pandemic. >> i think that's true i think there's a few things here i think it started very early here friday was the third week in which restaurant workers have not gotten a paycheck. and as a result, just recognizing the unbelievable crisis economically and talking to restaurant workers, talking to restaurant owners, and members of greater seattle business community, we ban together to try to do everything we can to create the most innovative program possible to get money in the hands of people who need it. i think so many people have been on your show people are doing great things. it's not a time for politics it's a time to band together, to

get hope to people who need it most and most importantly to demonstrate shared humanity across every single spectrum of our society, and this is a time really where we must come together and recognize that we'll get through this, but we also have to dig deep to help those people who can't help themselves >> howard, are the people big enough -- in other words, is this a problem that -- bridging a gap between we hope the money will go to these people or not because as someone who owns two restaurants, i can tell you every restaurateur is trying to make up their mind, do we stay open do we not stay open? do we go to the bank maybe they know us, maybe they don't. do we get an sba number? maybe we don't do we fight for the money. the restaurant workers just want to work. i just feel like there's the possibility that the bridge won't be -- it will be a bridge to nowhere because the restaurants won't reopen >> i think you're bringing up a great point. i think most restaurants

unfortunately operate month to month, quarter to quarter, these are small business people who have sacrificed so much entrepreneurially to build their business now they're facing an economic crisis where candidly many of them may not be able to open however, the restaurant workers are a community in every restaurant, a sense of family. and what i've learned in the last couple of weeks as we were putting the plate fund together is that there's an unbelievable level of concern and empathy and compassion not only for the restaurant owners, for their own business but most importantly the demonstration of what they're trying to do for their own people we have restaurants in seattle who are suffering, may not be open but yet they're opening their restaurant at night to feed their own people. this is the kindof humanity that we need in a country and what we're trying to do. we have to recognize that stimulus is going to come, but it will be late. we have to find an innovative way to get cash. the plate fund, unlike most other things that have been

developed is an opportunity to get cash in the hands of people within 48 hours. they need money and they need it now. they can't put food on their table. this is a problem. the other issue -- i hate to bring this up, it's a reality, across the country we're beginning to see storefronts being boarded up what does that mean? people are getting concerned about what happens if people don't have food on their table, money to feed their family we must do something to get cash in the hands of people now to bridge the gap between stimulus and insistence they need money now. >> at the same time, i hope you won't mind a question about the starbucks model. because anybody who has read your books or knows how you started the company knows that this notion of a third place, a gathering place, is a cornerstone of the model and i'm wondering how does that not directly collide with the fear of gathering that we're currently and will be in for

some time? >> you bring up a good point i think it's clear to me that when we get through this, and we will, the pattern recognition of what we once had for behavior will be changed. i think people will be longing for human connection people will be longing for a sense of community and a third place. and i think starbucks will benefit from that opportunity. it will take time for people to feel comfortable again we are all longing, i think, for the people that we see every day at work, for our friends and family, and i think that's going to be an opportunity when we get through this i think it's true, it will take some time for people to feel comfortable again to go back to the pattern they once had. >> howard, back to restaurants for a moment supporting the workers right now is paramount, but i wonder when we get back to some sense of normalcy, and you are a restaurant owner, you will need capital to reopen. it's not like you're going to be

able to flick a switch do you agree with that do you think the capital will be there? is that a concern as well? >> it absolutely is a concern. thankfully starbucks has the balance sheet and the resources to manage through the most severe situation but i think most restaurant owners, you are correct. one thing i would hope the government and the stimulus package would look like in the second and third tranche is a backstop to provide landlords and banks the opportunity to forgo not only the rent in the short-term but give an opportunity for the restaurant operators to open in a way in which rent is forgiven if we don't provide a back stop for the restaurants, i suspect that we could see a situation around the country in which approximately 30% or more of small, independent retailers and/or restaurants never reopen. and the value that these restaurants and small businesses

operate and the value they create for their community is not only the value of people coming into the business, it's employment it's vendors it's all the people who support them, not to mention the intrinsic value of neighborhoods and community gathering. so we can't have a scorched earth situation in which 30% to 40% of restaurants and small businesses do not reopen i would hope the government, senate and congress are looking at ways to recognize that we must not only flatten the curve of the health crisis but we must begin to flatten the curve of economic despair for restaurant owners, small businesses and most importantly the 10 million people now who have filed for unemployment. who are dying and in despair for cash now >> howard, i know that you are an observer of restaurants and retail in general, and you're near the headquarters of costco. don't we run the risk that there

will be costco, walmart, amazon, three of them make it. maybe target makes it. they are the only ones who have the balance sheets to make it. are we going to come out with three, four retailers? >> there's great risk in the fact that the independent retailers who compete every day and who are disadvantaged by that kind of scale of walmart or amazon or costco, they will need assistance we don't want to get to a situation where the consumer today only has two or three choices. so this is a moment in time and the crisis is now in which the planning, for sighesight and emy must be taken into consideration in everything we're trying to do so when we come out of this, not only do we have normalcy getting through the health crisis but doing it in a way in which the economic environment is fair and equitable for every person who worked hard to build their

business before the crisis and health issue occurred. >> opening bell there, howard, as we're talking to you. we'll look at the market in a moment really quick austria is now the first european country to sort of roll out a timetable for reopening. small shops as early as next week higher-risk shops like hair salons on may 1st. restaurants in mid-may is that the kind of conversation we should be having in this country today? >> i don't think so. i think bill gates got it exactly right. he's been saying this now for weeks. the country in my view would be best served if there was a federal mandate and we were shut down we allowed the opportunity as we saw in south korea and we saw in china for the crisis and health issue to be contained in a way in which we were doing everything we could to flatten the curve. i think that is not going to work in america. austria is a much smaller

country. i don't see it i think every day that goes by in which nine states are not reopening is problematic but i'm not here to talk politics i am here to talk about shared humanity we must find a way to do everything possible to get cash in the hands of people who need it most. i think for every american, let's try to dig deep and walk in the shoes of peoplewho unfortunately at this point in time can't help themselves let's do everything we can to help them. that's what the plate fund is designed to do in greater seattle >> you saved our viewers a fortune. you questioned luck coffee very early on, it turns out it was a fraud. sometimes we live in the world where i have mad money, i have nothing to do. thank you for recognizing who does well, starbucks in china and who is making up numbers you were wise to it. my viewers thank you >> i -- in saying that, i don't want to in any way say that

every company that starts up in china is a bad company but i think this company from the very beginning was saying and doing things that did not smell right. having said that, i think starbucks -- though i'm not directly involve did demonstrate a way to navigate through china which now over 90% of our stores are reopened i think that will serve us well as we navigate through the coronavirus crisis but i also -- i watched the show every day. i think you have done a wonderful job in framing the issues and also carrying the torch for the fact there's two issues here. the pandemic of the coronavirus and the pandemic of economic fear, uncertainty and despair. the two must go parallel together to come out of this whole for the american people. >> thank you, howard thank you for those kind words the plate is right, because what people have to recognize, as you are, the plate fund founder, these people right now have

nothing. this morning they wake up, they have nothing no hope for a job. no money in their bank account the only thing they can look forward to is the kindness of strangers like you because you care tremendously. thank you for coming on the show, howard >> thank you, guys stay healthy and safe. thank you very much. >> back to you, carl jim, let's talk about the market art cashin has been weighing in more frequently now as he recovers from his car accident he was in in february. he says today will be a tug of war between the rally that we talked about at the open, reflecting some potential curve bending versus what's happening with oil today he says watch that >> he's right. when we see oil go down, the algorithms say you know what maybe the economy is weaker. it's a question of too much supply but i find that the stocks that are involved with when you think that the economy is really faltering, they are going down

at beginning at the same time we have this terrible situation, we have not even talked about it, with the airlines here we have got warren buffett saying i'm a seller of delta because he's warren buffett, people impute because he sees maybe the government might take a big stake in it. maybe the airlines are under a lot of trouble it's time to bail. you remember, warren buffett has not had much luck with the airlines, has he >> no he hasn't. in fact, if you recall, he, i think said many times he would never invest in airlines again, only to be fair the airlines did change dramatically over the last ten years or so earning more than their cost of capital for the first time in history in the recent period but he's been reminded again perhaps why that was not necessarily -- that was advice he should have taken from himself not to go back in to the airlines.

buffett otherwise quiet. at least we heard from jamie dimon in the form of his annual letter, he did address a lot of what's going on right now. but not a lot coming from mr. buffett in terms of at least broader proclamations about america that we typically get from him that make people feel positive >> definitely want to know -- the airline group, we talked to howard schultz about how the workers and the restaurant group are suffering. when you fly, you're on your own. i do wonder -- i know phil lebeau is closer to this than anyone, who will apply for the money? is the treasury secretary going to own 25% of delta? does it make sense is united immune i think that the treasury secretary has to speak up and the airlines have to speak up. these stocks are trading i always hate it when stocks are trading and there's a couple people who know what's going on. there's the rest of us wouldn't it be great if the

s.e.c. -- not the s.e.c. on cbs, but if the actual s.e.c. came out and said we need information, we won't let these stocks trade until we find out who owns them, but we're in a tremendous period, anything goes it's kind of disconcerting to me these stocks can trade when some people know the government will take a stake and others are clueless doesn't seem right to me >> yeah. everybody should go back and read friday night the memos that came out from ed bastion of delta and the ceo of jetblue delta said on a typical saturday in april, we have 600,000 people fly. last saturday we had 38,000 people fly this "journal" piece on airlines, lufthansa and others looking for the chemical that will keep allergy from growing in the gas tank on these planes that are parked on runways and not going anywhere any time

soon >> yeah. i mean, they're trying to find as much space as they can for them the numbers are staggering we keep talking about them 124,000 versus 2.4 million for the year on any given day and continuing to come down. you know, when you lose 90% of your revenues -- jetblue is losing 10 million a day at least. a number of the other airlines are losing more than that. there's no doubt they are in significant financial distress the question is, to jim's point, what they'll look like and what role the government will play here in terms of trying to aid them and how that ends up looking. guys, on that point by the way, it is worth mentioning a provider to the airlines woodward and hexal, remember that deal? woodward, independent designer, manufacturing, provider of components for aerospace, and hexal which makes a lot of those composites, they called off

their merger citing current conditions they mutually terminate. that's worth noting this morning. we may see more of that in the stock for stock deals where it's just both companies interest to not go through a process that is going to leave them somewhat paralyzed while they wait for various approvals and be able to focus on balance sheets and focus on the deterioration taking place in their various industries >> were you surprised the ratheon deal went so smoothly with united technologies >> it's funny. we had a lot of the biggest deals close in the last week we had sprint and t-mobile and ratheon/utx, now called ratheon technologies not necessarily surprised. curious to see how otis and carrier do greg hayes was straight talking. sometimes there's so much coming at us we don't focus when he said two years -- you remember that? >> yes >> two years to get back to

normal that was a moment there. we moved on quickly past it, but it is worth noting that that was a long time. a long time before he sees getting back to again a sense of normalcy in terms of his business is what he was talking about. >> i think, carl, one thing that's been so hard is to try to figure out, okay, when am i going to go back to work when am i going to go back to school it keeps coming back to testing. so i keep going to abbott labs, which is doing its best as 50,000 -- they got the test kits out on thursday. until we get into a situation where i know whether you have it you know whether i have it, and we're all willing to wear a mask, i don't want to go to a restaurant with you. and that's no good we have to feel that it is not taking our life into our hands when we go into a store. and the normalcy will come back when we have antivirals. i think that's the big focus

wall street has antiviral research about who has got it, who doesn't. nothing matters until i say, you know what? i got tested this morning. i'm pretty good. >> well, jim -- >> without a doubt >> just two examples, guys this morning cvs will start drive-through testing at locations in atlanta and rhode island there's a new stanford university immunity test that governor gavin newsom says will try to be scaled and get people back to work under the exact scenario you're talking about. my question is are you seeing that fill in even on the edges right now? >> we have one oddity, we have a very federalist system, more federalist i've seen since 1860. it's every state for itself kind of gavin newsom trying to make it so it works. but without knowing -- i think that stanford program is very smart. >> all right let's get to bob pisani this

morning with the dow up almost 4% good morning, bob. >> futures started overnight up big, and it has stayed up. basically flat lining. that's because we had a great response overseas in asia, a good part of china is closed but hang seng is open. the nikkei is up about 4%. we had a great start to the week overall. korea is up as well. sto stoxx 600 is up. autos are up in europe as well here in the united states, banking is leading. these are the most beaten-up sectors. retail is leading, dramatically lagging. industrials doing better tech what's lagging today consumer staples remember, that was the old leadership group so we have inverted at this point and if you look at the old market leaders, kroger, clorox, campbell soup, general mills, how many times in the last few weeks have i put them up and

they've been the market leaders up on the days when the market is down. so there is -- this is crazy to say -- there is rotation going on in the market really this has been the trend for a while. last week i spent a lot of time looking at the markets intraday volatility swings compared to the prior three weeks. we saw about 30% lighter volume than in the prior three weeks. the vix is at 44 today it was at 83 or 84 the end of march. intraday price swings were in the 2% to 3% range we were in the 5% to 7% range in the last several weeks of march. things were calmer definitely. obviously still a lot of concern out there. the part where we're at right now, we're sort of in the middle a lot of people say we'll retest the lows we'll see aboutthat. remember, 2237 was the march 23rd bottom. we're 340 points away from that. it's a long way to test the lows but from the february 19th high,

we dropped 27% by the end of last week. at worst part we were down 35% from the lows, we were up 14%. if you include this morning's gain of 3%, we are up 17%. we are right sort of in the middle of where we were and it's debatable whether we will retest the old lows, 350 points is a long way to go to retest the lows but some people feel that's possible it's heartening to see a lot of the earnings estimates no one has a clue what's going on, but a lot of the earnings estimates seem to be coalescing in the down 20% to 30% range mike wilson at morgan stanley is respiratorive of this. he is estimating today that we'll see declines for 2020 in the low teens to 20% there's a lot of debate about what will go on with dividends and buy backs. he noted dividends were cut 12% in 2008. already a few dividend cuts. i don't think we'll see quite as many buy backs are a much more

serious issue here he thinks there's a 50% decline in buybacks. if we get a 50% decline that will remove a 1% tail end to the eps numbers. others like goldman think it could be more severe than that we'll see. the earnings were cut -- the buy backs were cut nearly 100% in 2008 most of that was because of the banks all cut. they were big buyback people finally, you know, carl, you mentioned our dear friend, art cashin, nice story up on tradertalk.cnbc.com about art and his thoughts on coronavirus. the important thing is just that art is back. he moved back into his house on friday he is in rehab and, carl, i of course said when are you coming back on? when can we get you on the air when can we talk on the phone with you, me, carl, the guys, he said maybe a little later this week i think the great thing about art cashin here, my favorite line in this, when i said everybody says stay in the rehab

and keep doing the rehab carl, he said the hell with the rehab, when will they reopen bobby vans now you know art cashin is feeling better and sends his great gratitude for all the best wishes for all the people out there who have flooded on twitter wishing him the best he sends his love to everyone out there. carl, back to you. >> some of the best news of the weekend, bob everybody should read your piece, cnbc.com/traderdashtalk thank you. david, i know you have some thoughts on slack today and this dead offering. >> yeah. you know, carl, in and of itself, perhaps no the that big a deal but worth mentioning. 6$600 million convertible they'l bring to market. five-year notes. we don't know coupon we don't know interest rate. we don't know conversion rate, i should say as well at this point. that will be determined in part by the marketplace i noted because when we were sort of coming out of the

financial crisis and bottoming, there were a lot of converts that companies were starting to issue. the market did have an appetite for it something to keep an eye on. slack down a bit this morning with the news of this. another way to raise capital in a difficult environment but one we should watch because it can be reflective, jim, of the overall appetite in the market for this type of paper >> i'm surprised there is any appetite at all. slack is definitely in use because of the new at-home office but we know that satya nadella is a competitive man he doesn't want slack to win maybe slack needs every penny they can get i'm always surprised about the appetite of paper. i'm surprised that the bankers are so successful at selling something. of the pieces of paper i want, i'm not sure i want to be levered to slack when i know the long knives are out against them >> right but, to your point about microsoft, microsoft teams of

course -- >> yeah. >> -- at least people are trying to understand when we do get to the other side of this, how many people will continue to work remotely of a given work force and so things like teams make that a lot easier. we all know -- i'm sure you guys have been doing it, too, your zoom cocktail hour with friends, family >> yeah. >> it is amazing how our behaviors are changing so many people are focused on what will it mean when we do get back to life a lot of people focused in part -- i had this conversation with a lot of people who run organizations on their office space. you know, maybe i never need or don't need to expand any time soon i can know now i can have 25% of my employee base that is at home at one time or another doesn't mean it's the same people, that can change. i know that i need 75% of my current floor plan and that's a real opportunity to save money that's one area i'm hearing a

lot of conversation about when we do get to the other side of this >> you're so right, david. >> i was going to say, jim, this credit suisse downgrade of zoom today to underperform, though they take their target up to 105, is largely based on the premties thise that it will get, but the conversion to paid use may be overstated. >> i'll have zoom on tonight to figure it out. i was to a couple zoom cocktail parties -- i was overserved. went from 10 million to 200 million overnight. i know cisco has a competing product, ring central. zoom, maybe that's the way -- if i were on the board of a college, i have to tell you, i would be worried the kids are starting to learn pretty well. i have two kids focused on it.

yes, we know the value of a college is going to campus and getting to know each other, if klemm go college goes to 80,000, i wonder if there will be a zoom rebellion saying the hell with that i'll find a college that i can get a degree in and save 80,000. boy, you com you come out with $320,000 in debt in a market where there aren't any jobs. that's a pretty hopeless situation. david, your kid is about to go to school. what do you think? >> i mean, i've got to say, you know, it's really a story of haves and have notes as you're looking at new york city schools trying to get ipads into the hands of kids who barely have wi-fi. if you're in a private school, obviously it's relatively seamless it's a huge structural change in education in this country. >> yeah. this is -- >> let's get to rick -- >> i'm sorry >> let's check in with rick

santelli and see what's going on >> some of you might look at a dow jones chart and say that actually could be the bottom in stocks but it's really hard to do the same thing with regard to interest rates now, if we look at a february start to two-year note yields and realize 21 is the lowest close in about seven years, we bump along at 24 basis points, up a bit on the day, but certainly, but with zero to 25 for the effective range of fed funds, it's hard to imagine we couldn't see another retest of lower rates and we could see market rates negative. we could see markets do it even if the treasury and feds don't want negative rates. let's look at a ten-year starting in february closed forever as 54 basis here we sit 10 basis points higher it's not much of a cushion and it makes many nervous. and it's not so much that it's giving us an indication of the

economy. it's hard to get any gps on the economy. it's giving us is the feeling of investors in how they will grab into the sovereign debt when things start to get dicey and the fact we're so close to historic lows makes a difference 30-year bonds, the low all day 99 the close you see the longest maturity has the biggest cushion. if you think about bund yields, it's fairly interesting. last week we got close to 100 basis points of separation between tens and bunds that's the best in a little over six years. the closest they've been as you look at this chart of bunds, what's fascinating is minus 08 is a all time low it gives us insight into the notion that their rates, especially the southern economies have pulled to the up

side on some of the sovereign debt look at a one week chart maybe the best chart is let's go back all the way 17 years. because here we cover above 100. in 17 years we hardly have spent much time above 100 as you see on the chart it underscores this resiliency of the dollar index maybe as a negative for certain economies like emerging markets. but at the endof the day, you get to buy things at the lowest prices with the stronger dollar. david, back to you >> okay. rick, thank you very much. rick santelli. take a look at shares -- jim mentioned it with howard schultz. goldman sachs had a margin loan that obviously is in default given the significant fall in the shares on friday they're selling 76 million ads that's putting pressure on the stock as well. by the way, it is also, again, a margin loan facility secured by

shares, but it does appear it was the ceo as well and it will significantly reduce his voting interests. no let up there for luck and coffee when we come back in the next hour of "squawk on the street," don't miss sara's exclusive interview with janet yellen. more "squawk on the street" right after this have you noticed how well all the departments have been working together since we've gone mobile with the now platform? there's no friction at all. it's neat to see the office running so smoothly. servicenow. the smarter way to workflow.

time for a quick reset

good monday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, jim cramer and david faber. dow is up better than 4% the last time we talked about ventilators with medtronic, it ramped up operation around the clock. since then the need has grown leading the president to invoke the defense protection act joining us is the ceo of medtronic. good to see you. >> great to see you, too >> let's just start with the report card on where we are in ventilator supply in this country, and what parts of the country they're going to >> well, first we made a lot of progress since we last talked. we do make critical care ventilators like i mentioned last time, and the response from our team and from our partners has been simply outstanding. last time i was on the call we

talked about the rate of per week of our manufacturing the ventilators. today we're at 300 a week. that's about double what we had the january when this pandemic first started. by the end of april, we'll be at 400 a week by may at 700 a week, and then by june 1,000 a week so great progress in ramping up production the way we're al galocating thii almost exclusively by clinical need we are looking at disease models and trying to predict where the greatest need is at any point in time and shipping those ventilators to that very place price is not a factor. in fact, we've put in place a fixed price which is lower than the prevailing price before the pandemic and that's the same price everybody pays the main thing we're look agent is the greatest clinical need. we're allocating in that way.

>> interesting is the marginal capacity being added coming from legacy players like yourself? is it from other types of manufacturers switching to this? is it from other countries from whom we are importing or a combination of all of the above? >> well, first the numbers i gave you, the thousand a week by june is our own factories. our own factory in ireland is going to ramp up to that pace within the next couple months. on top of this, as you know, we put out an open source initiative where we open sourced our design for our 560 ventilator, that's had tremendous response. that have been major players who have been engaged among them is foxconn who have a plant in wisconsin where he plan to make together with them ventilators within the next four to six weeks. that will be in production in that time frame. that's on top of the numbers i just gave you. the exact numbers on those we

don't know yet, but we will be rolling into production. we're working 24 /7 with foxconn to bring this up to the factory in wisconsin now in addition to that, there are a few other partners outside the united states in asia with whom we're also engaging. this enables us to leverage capacity and expertise, engineering expertise of major players to really improve and further enhance our capability to make ventilators which as you know are critical resource in this time around the world, and certainly in the united states >> omar, it's jim. always good to hear from you >> great nice talking to you, jim >> omar, you're a person of great principle. what you said is it's by need. if italy needs them, where it's horrible, spain needs them where it's terrible or the united states needs them where it's horrible, you have to make decisions. do each of these leaders which are force frl, try to do to

right things for their countries call you and say you're located in ireland, but we need them more what happens when president trump says you know what we need them more than italy, even though it's clear that italy is terrible. >> first, we've been working with fema on this. we're doing our very best to move these ventilators to places of the greatest need and everyone has been very receptive to that line of reasoning. right now the need is in the united states. as you all know the situation in new york, and in other states, and we're prioritizing that by far. so so far the discussions we've had have been very good. and people have been supportive. and helped us in allocating to the right place and we made it very clear that this is based on clinical made and we've been transparent about the models and open to modifications suggested in. >> is it surprising when we hear

about the mortality rate, are you surprised that ventilators are such a hot button given the fact that most of the people on ventilators die? >> no. i mean, look, these ventilators are high-end, a sophisticated device, and the chances of survival with that are probably as high as you can get in this sort of critical situation so we expect the medical community to pull every asset that available to save every life, every single life matters. it matters to us it matters to everyone and these products have been designed with a great deal of precision. with lots of automatic control with the very specific algorithms they're a match to patients, and i think it is our responsibility to make sure we can do everything we can to save every single life out there in any way that we can. so i'm not at all surprised that there's a demand for the

ventilators, and we're doing everything we can to meet this unprecedented challenge. our teams are working in an unprecedented way. partners are mobilizing together with us, crossing company boundaries and crossing country boundaries so we're doing everything we can to save lives. i'm not at all surprised that the need for ventilators is at that level given the current situation. >> omar, it's sara so that very point, you talk to a lot of physicians here in new york, follow them on social media. some have started questioning whether we're using ventilators in the right way to fight covid-19 in other words, there is some chatter that they're using them as acute respiratory distress syndrome when many are presenting with symptoms that require lower settings in order to minimize lung damage. have you heard about this and

are you actively involved in some of this research and experimenting? >> look, our clinical people are tied in with the respiratory therapists and experts in this field. i think we're working with them. we have experts in that area i personally am not an expert. it's difficult for me to comment on that. i do know that we've got strong relationships with the respiratory physicians and are working very closely with them in optimizing the need our products are extremely flexible, and so we can tune them according to current need and we're learning one example is the use of splinter where a ventilator can be used on two patients. that is not a standard procedure, and clinicians don't recommend it however, because of the dire need today, we've worked with certain physicians and tried to optimize a splitter design used as a last resort and try to help them make a version that is

about as good as you can make it so in this way, we are working very closely with the physicians and we're learning every day and so this is a new challenge for us a new challenge for all of us. and we're working together to provide the best possible care >> another challenge that we hear about is the professionals on the front line. as i understand it, ventilators require highly trained people, intensive care doctors, intensive care nurses, anesthesiologis anesthesiologists, respiratory therapists are you making training more available and are you able to transfer the skills to other types of doctors and nurses? >> yeah. one of the things we've done which we will launch in the next couple of days is working with intel. we've rapidly created a remote control capability on these

ventilators. so you can control a ventilator from a remote location and, therefore, the training can be localized to a certain group of people which can be done more quickly. and so multiple ventilators can be operated remotely, and that's a big asset. in addition to that, the other value of that remote control capability is that it keeps the care givers relatively safe because they don't have to be in the room we are doing things like that. that is a challenge. the training resources and the number of people trained in this area is limited. and we're trying to do the best we can to train new people and to make the oneses who are already trained as efficient as possible that is a big effort on our part, and again, a great partnership with intel has helped us do this in record time >> that's fascinating. and you can see the real world impact that would have c especial --

especially in a hospital so much heat around the defense production act can you tell our viewers what you think the utility of that act is right now what kind of leverage is necessary to do things -- >> well, for us the latest announcement that was made a couple days ago helps us it ensures that suppliers are supplying sort of established ventilator manufacturers as a priority that helps us. so far let's just all rally together and make sure that we supply the ventilators to the right places at the right time using data science and clinical determination. and i think the defense act here again, just help us do that in a streamlined and focussed way and not get distracted by other things >> did we learn something here maybe we don't make enough

things here? maybe we're not as great a manufacturing country as we used to be. if we're going to come out of this, should we decide to make it that ventilators are something that we make here? that it's just imperative that we make them here and we should never have something like this happen again >> well, a number of things. first, the partnership with foxconn will allow us if it goes through as planned, will i allow us to manufacture ventilators in wisconsin. that's a positive for us i think we should try to make as many as possible we should have a supply chain that is as reliable as possible. and i think what's important is to have duplication in that supply chain i do think that in the time of need, duplicate sources always help i think being more diligent about that and more disciplined about that can only help to have sources in multiple locations is a benefit. because you never know when disasters occur.

and you have a backup. that's always beneficial, and to have more from production effort in the united states, cannot hurt it's an area we're focussed on and to have a duplicate supply chain is equally important >> omar, you mentioned foxconn as one of the companies taking advantage of opening the design process. is elon musk at tesla building ventilators? sometimes t hard to read between his tweets >> we've also worked with elon and tesla, and our partnership with him, with tesla actually is also extremely important they are using their spacex organization and their expertise in production to actually make a critical component for the products it's a valve that is made with a great deal of precision, and spacex is helping us multiply the number of such devices which

is going to help us in this rampup that i talked about so you know, tesla is applying their capabilities in a focussed way, and one that we appreciate a lot, and that's another partnership that's come about during this pandemic, and one that's also adding a lot of value. but their technology expertise in specific areas is what counts for us, anyway >> finally, omar, over the weekend a lot of people got signals that perhaps curves are beginning to bend all around the world. the president tweets about light at the end of the tunnel this morning. are you beginning to model in what necessary supply -- what supply will be necessary over the long-term? how many we'll need to have ready in a year from now as seasons come and go? >> yes we are that's why we're ramping up these -- this production both ourselves and with partners in as rapid a way as we can

and we've got models certainly extending out a couple months. three or four months, and then that alone will give us a capability that will allow us to serve a lot more patients like i talked about and we are looking at the future in case it comes back, and there are e meshlging markets around the world. with large populations where there are very few ventilators we're not looking at this as a short-term temporary effort for a few weeks. we're looking at this as a longer-term effort and trying to create a system through which we'll never have this problem again, and in the short-term, medium-term, long-term, save as many lives as we can, give people the chance and the capability to really survive this really disastrous and difficult situation we're in so we are looking over the long-term. we're looking at it globally

we're looking at markets where ventilators aren't available today. we'll be looking at training people there this is really a fuller program for us in which our teams are closely involved i'm closely involved our management team is closely involved in one we know we'll win. and we'll succeed. >> omar, our thanks to you very much appreciate it. >> thank you very much >> a lot of information for our viewers. carl, the dow is up more than 1,000 points. a quick break. larry kudlow from the white house joins us on the other side stayitus wh - [narrator] at southern new hampshire university,

we're committed to making college more affordable. that's why we're keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. - [woman] i knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. - [narrator] find your degree at snhu.edu.

welcome back with stocks up 4.5%, time for our etf spotlight. xlp up double digits from the march lows it's the worst performing sector up 2 % it's been along the best performers of the year, down only 10% where you have groups like financials down 32% for the year these are the companies that are ramping up hiring and production to meet consumer needs in a few minutes an exclusive with with former fed chair janet yellen and next, larry kudlow, the chief economicsed adviser t

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consider protected lifetime income from an annuity as part of your retirement plan. this can help you cover your essential monthly expenses. learn more at protectedincome.org . welcome back no we want to bring in larry kudlow, the national economic counsel director a lot of different things, larry. let's start off with the program that began on friday the ppp administered by the small business administration.

anything rolled out that quickly might have a couple complications. we're hearing from some banks having trouble in terms of dealing with all the applications coming at them. and i'm also hearing from some professionals and accountants that there's some confusion in terms of calculating the average monthly payroll costs, for example. what can you tell us in terms of how it's being administered and what changes need to be made to make it move even faster >> it's a monumental undertaking. this thing is not easy i came as of 9:30 this morning, david, there are commitments for 38 billion worth of loans. the loans 130,000 loans themselves 2400 lenders so that's a terrific start okay make that point. on some of the details, i'm not involved in the day today workings treasury will be able to fill

you in i'm not sure i heard your last point, but maybe you can repeat it if i can help, i will again, it got off to a terrific start. 38 billion as of this morning. that's a big number. >> it is my question was specific to what i've been hearing from some professionals, accountants, for example. they're having some difficulty calculating average monthly payroll costs, apparently there are also some lack of concrete answers in terms of some of the rules that have been issued. again, i know this is more treasury's area than yours i don't know if you have anything to share in terms of whether they can provide more specifics at sba for those applying >> look, no question they will i mean, the glitches will get worked it's a monumental undertaking. $350 billion you can just imagine from small business to banks, to loan guarantees, ultimately backed up

by sba and treasury. i mean, again, this is our effort to respond to the almost -- the exponential rise in the coronavirus and the mitigation effects necessary to deal with it and, of course, we are going to look into a very difficult economic period and economic contraction. we're in the midst of it you and others, we've all seen the early unemployment numbers so look, we're trying to deal with it in two ways. it's really about payrolls and about individuals and families first of all, on the payroll side, we're doing the best we can to reward companies that can keep their payrolls going. and we will forgive these loans and loan guarantees to the extent that the payroll forgiveness works. okay that's important as long as you keep your people on, we're going to help you a lot.

we may help you additionally, but that's the first step. on the other side, i want to make this point. we're giving assistance checks to 175 million americans 175 million americans. it's a huge number and the checks from the treasury and the irs start going out i think this week, perhaps early next, but i think secretary mnuchin was talking about this week, and also you know, if you are laid off, we plussed up the unemployment benefits substantially. the labor department delivered the funds to the states. the states are trying to distribute it. we are trying to keep this economy together, and hopefully we're going to get a break i say hopefully. i say prayerfully in the next four to eight weeks and we'll -- maybe that's all it's going to take maybe it's going to be worse i don't want to forecast we're doing everything we can, liquidity, cash, rescue, try to keep the labor force connected

to the businesses. i think so far it's a good start for a monumental task. >> thank you for your optimism very much needed i know sometimes criticize, we know we don't care because it's one nation there are people, larry, who want to contribute so badly. it feels like the march of kinds when you and i knew. what's a matter with doing a trillion dollar 30-year at 1.5 a co-vid war bond. do you know how quickly that would sell out we feel helpless, but we want to stop this and find a way to do it let us >> you know, as far as i'm concerned, i think it's a great idea obviously i've talked to our colleagues about this. whatever the maturity and the exact rate would be. this is a time it seems to me, to sell bonds in order to raise

money for the war effort in this case, the pandemic effort in this case, the effort to keep families and individuals in businesses afloat. i am all for it. this would be a long-term investment into the future of american health, safety, and the economy. so from my standpoint, technical considerations aside, i think the concept is exactly right i think it's exactly right >> all right so you know the pond market really well and you're a great economist. would this be something you could refer to the president because we would all unite and what a terrific thing. a war bond that everybody can go for. how much would we all want to buy that this is such a good opportunity. >> jimmy, i will pass the along to the president who is always keenly interested in your point of view as is secretary mnuchin and certainly i have always used you as a guiding light

we may not always agree, but we do on the big things no, i like the way you put that. and i think this is a moment to do whatever it takes to yield whatever federal levers are necessary. one of the levers might be an unusual but timely and important means of federal finance no question about it >> hey, larry, it's sara eisen good to have you can you give us a sense of what the conversations in the white house are right now around how and when we're going to reopen our economy and just what that looks like i think it's hard for investors to wrap their arms around this one. >> i know it's hard. by the way, it's hard for everybody. it's hard for us it's hard for you. it's hard for investors. i think mostly it's hard for just ordinary main street middle income americans this is just hard. we've had a number of conversations. you heard the president, again,

yesterday, at the news conference repeat his desire to get the economy open, reopened, as soon as possible. he doesn't want the cure to be worse than the problem i believe that's how he puts it in quote, unquote. we have a task force i mean, look, the health side has to come first. the health side must continue to come first and the mitigation efforts, we believe, are working there's -- i saw bill gates on tv yesterday suggesting maybe some stability by the end of this month let us hope and pray that's even possible we are looking at not only at the health side and including all the necessary protocols and the best practices we're looking at the economic side how we can work hand in hand with the health people, maybe to gradually reopen the economy open chunks of the economy

stay away from the worst hot zones. there's a lot of scenarios here. it's not my area of expertise, but we are looking at that right now, though, our salute top priority to is execute phase three. again, you're talking about 175 million americans getting about $600 billion worth assistance plus another 350 billion for small businesses 150 billion for the states $150 billion for the hospitals and as you know and others, because of the treasury's stabilization fund, the exchange stabilization fund, i think of it as an emergency fund, that $500 billion piece allows the federal reserve to lever up maybe something like 10 to 1 to provide a lot of assistance to all parts of the economy, stabilize the financial markets, add the necessary liquidity, add the necessary cash i don't think the fed is

finished they've done a great job through 133. my guess is they're not finished with their efforts including the main street lending facility we are trying to pull all this together the health side, the economic side, i call it the financial stabilization side if we as americans, all of us as americans, if we can work together, move through this, succeed with the execution of this rescue plan if we can do that, then we can look forward, hopefully, prayerfully, to some flattening of that curve that everybody talks about, and maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised >> larry, it's david again there are those who say you're going to have to do even more. phase three is great the cares act very important but there is a part of the economy here, and here i'm

talking atal talking about businesses with more than 500 employees but are not investment grade you know, the man who writes jeffries this weekend writes we're not looking for a bailout or lbos but rather to return previously high quality companies employing millions of people to the same position we were in before we were at war with the virus is there a talk about another plan, phase four, perhaps, that would deal with that part of the economy? such an important one. not investment grade but has more than 500 employees? >> i agree and it's something that's come up people calling us and emailing us and so forth. i know secretary mnuchin is looking very carefully at that as a side point, the feds' main street lending facility could, could, i don't want to get ahead of their curve but could help to solve some of those problems i think on your broader point

without putting a label on it, if we need more money for the payroll protection program, or other aspects, we will go to congress and ask for more money. the president indicated that yesterday. secretary mnuchin said it. i've said it we will go and seek additional assistance i don't want to put names on it. i think a lot of this stuff has to be specific to the programs that have been put in place. but yes, we will go for more money, and to some extent that goes back to jimmy cramer's point. if we have to do this and we need more money and we need to do everything we can to keep america as much together as possible, i mean, individuals and families and then the relationship between people working in the businesses they work for, then why not sell large bonds? why not go for it in a patriotic way, in an american safety way

to bring the economy back whenever that can be possible? what the heck? 50 basis points or i think jimmy said 100 basis points, why not do it? we won't be bashful in asking for more funds for assistance if we need it >> yeah. larry, do you ever step back and think to yourself, these numbers. we talked for years and you said no, we can't spend $1 trillion or $2 trillion on infrastructure or health care now we're talking about numbers the likes of which we've never seen before and you're saying sure, keep spending it sometimes i wonder why we didn't spend it originally and put it in infrastructure all over this country that we needed years ago. >> well, of course, the president has for many years talked about getting an infrastructure bill through. look, one of the things i've learned here, i mean, i've been around quite some time, and i'm seeing things i never thought i'd see, and i'm seeing an

urgency. it's a sense of being helpful. it goes back to something president trump said several weeks ago. that he would use the full powers of the federal government, the full powers of the federal government to deal with this. and i know all of us have said we will do whatever it takes to try to get through this incredible emergency i think that's the commitment, and i don't believe anybody would have predicted the exponential rise of this, but whatever we're doing everything we can to do it. i want to add one more point i think to some extent to jim's point, but this president has used the private sector, the free enterprise private sector in this crisis more than any other president has ever in prior crises now, you say well, prior crises aren't comparable, fair enough but this is a public/private partnership.

i mean, my pal peter navarro working with fema and dhs, you have all these big companies whether it's masks, whether it's respirators and ventilators and so forth i got a laundry list of things i'll never remember them but gm and ge and ford and walmart and target and the biotech companies. no one has used the private sector like we have. that has enhanced our effort private sector folks are smarter than we are and more innovative and creative >> that may be true. although, we need to throw the government to figure out how to get things to states in need appreciate you joining us. >> thank you appreciate it. >> larry kudlow. all right. jim, what is coming up on mad money? >> we have zoom. and i've been a big fan of zoom since it came public security issues we'll go over.

i think eric has revolutionized the way we do our work and burt cancelled no thanks. not a big fan of people who cancel david, i am going to wear it moment i'm done. i don't like it. it's hot it's miserable but it's got to be worn. okay >> all right i know >> it's not bad. you get used to it >> you wear it in the car? >> everywhere. i wear it everywhere, because dr. fauci thinks it's a good idea maybe it's your patriotic duty at this point. >> okay. see you tomorrow, jim. >> yep let's get the latest now on the coronavirus outbreak sue herera has an update >> don't worry, jim, i wear my mask as well good morning, everybody. all state says it will refund more than $600 million to auto

insurance customers over the next two months. the ceo says this is due to the unprecedented decline in driving and accidents during the pandemic most customers will get back 15% of their monthly premium in april and may. the british prime minister has now been hospitalized as he continues to show symptoms of the coronavirus. johnson says he is undergoing routine tests. he remains in good spirits and is in touch with his team. take a look at that video. it will take days to get all the passengers off the coral princess cruise ship which docked in miami over the weekend. this as a third passenger died of the coronavirus his family said they had to call 9-1-1 to get him to a hospital a nfl kicker died from complications of the coronavirus. tom dempsey is known for his field goal kick in the 70s his record stood for 43 years.

he passed away at 73 moments ago the organizers of the british open announced the golf tournament is cancelled for this year. the next british open will take place in july of 2021. as always, for more information on the coronavirus coverage, head to cnbc.com back to you. all right. sue, thank you very much nice market rally. stocks are up more than 4. 5%. coming up an exclusive with janet yellen on the other side of this break. stay with us

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stocks higher this morning on early signs potentially the virus growth has been easing in this country and in europe we are joined now by a very special guest, the former federal reserve chair, janet yellen in a cnbc exclusive chair yellen joining us from skype. good to have you >> thanks, sara. nice to be with you.

>> so obviously we are in an unprecedented situation. how are you gauging this severity of the economic shock that we are dealing with as the nation shuts down? >> high frequently indicators, particularly ones that bear on the labor market particularly initial claims and what we're seeing there as you know is absolutely shocking. probably now if we had a timely unemployment statistic, the unemployment rate would probably be up to 12% or 13% at this point, and moving higher other sec tomorrow indicators daily credit card data, other data that we have just showed dramatic decline in economic activity you know, probably for the

second quarter at an annual rate, we're going to be looking at a decline in gdp of at least 30%, and i've seen far harder numbers. so this is a huge unprecedented, devastating hit and my hope is that we will get back to business as usual as quickly as possible >> on the jobs numbers in particular, i mean, you called it shocking to see almost 10 million unemployment claims in almost two weeks how bad do you think the numbers could get in this country? >> well, i think the total is continuing to rise, and how bad it gets, i think it really depends on how quickly people can get back to business my thinking is our focus needs

to be on testing an getting the pandemic under enough control so we can begin to restore business activity but certainly unemployment could go higher. i'm hopeful the new small business administration and other lending programs will work to continue to protect employment i thought it was heartening in the recent employment report even though it's stale, to see that a lot of the unemployment was temporary job loss that suggested workers are still connected to their firms and if activity can restart, that they'll be able to go back to their old jobs >> people are wondering if this could look like a v or a u or a w. do you have any sense of what recovery looks like? >> well, a v, which is what we're all hoping for, is really best case scenario, and if

activity could begin to resume as many assume in june and maybe be back to something more normal by the summer, i think the "v" is possible, but i am worried the outcome will be worse, and it really depends to my mind on just how much damage is done during the time that the economy is shut down and the way it is now. to what extent will workers have their employment connections severed. if firms need to start up their activity and they've lost ties with their existing work force, that will make it that much harder if households have run down their savings and had to dip into retirement savings, or are behind on their bills and have higher debt and lower

wealth their spending patterns are not likely to go back to what they were the corporate distress we're seeing and that may get worse. it may leave companies -- i'm afraid we will see bankruptcies and companies may end up with debt burdens that make them unwilling to restore the spending or rehire workers, and the more damage of that sort that's done, the more likely we're to see a "u" and worse letters like "l" i hope we don't see something like that. >> you've been warning about the corporate debt issues and that so many people manage on debt. and many people point to the fed policies do you regret keeping interest

rates too low for too long >> i think we needed low interest rates in order to support employment and the economy and to try to get inflation back to the fed's 2% target but i will agree there are dangers in keeping interest rates too low, and in the low interest rate environment, and that's something when we come out of this, we're likely to see for a long time to come, regulators need other tools in order to constrain the build up and debt we saw in nonfinancial corporations over the six, seven years or in the runup to the 2008 crash, to be able to constrain the kinds of borrowing and debt buildup that households have

i call them macro prudential tools. although i've been a fan of the dodd frank reforms, i felt that was a very important bill where really -- we're fortunate now to have a strong well capitalized banking system we're seeing the benefits of that what dodd frank did to provide regulators with the macro prudential tools was insufficient i would have liked to have seen stricter controls on credit growth, on leveraged lending over the last several years that would have left corporations in better shape to handle the shock like we're seeing now. and i would simply say i don't believe the regulators have those tools. they're especially needed in a low interest rate environment.

>> you alluded to the financial system obviously being better capitalized than where we were in 2008. though, the stocks have gotten hit pretty hard, how sound do you think the banking system is right now in this country relative to where we were in the financial crisis >> well, i think the banking system is much better capitalized. has much better liquidity, is doing a much better job of understanding the risk they're subject to i think stress testing has been an important innovation. but there will be a lot of stress on banks, and many people feel that what we're seeing in the economy now, especially if we're not able to restart activities soon, is about as severe a shock to the banking system to the economy as the

severely adverse scenario in last year's stress test. and so look, if this lasts long enough, eventually the losses that banks will realize you know, plus just the fact that we're in a low interest rate environment that hurts bank earnings, eventually there will be a toll on the banking system as well. i think what's essential is to do the testing andput in place the public health things that we need >> in the meantime, should the fed make the banks suspend their dividend payouts to preserve capital or would that send an alarming signal about bank solvency >> well, i would be in favor of asking the banks to suspend dividends and stock buybacks i know that many of the largest banks have said they would suspend stock buybacks

banks tend to be very reluctant to stop dividends and stock buybacks when -- because they -- they worry that it will make them look as though they're vulnerable, and that there's a reason that they have stopped dividends, that they see that they have difficulties but if the regulators ask them to do that on the grounds that we need a banking system that able to meet the credit needs of the economy and we don't know how severe or long-lasting this pandemic will be, i think that's a different situation, and the way i look at it, if things go well, the banks will be able to pay those dividends or do the stock buybacks later, and what's critical is they be able to meet

the credit needs of the economy. >> yeah. i think the bankers disagree on that point a number of them have said they will not be suspending dividends. they're in different shape than the european banks, and that they feel relatively confident at this point that they can ride things out >> i know. i've heard that. i mean, i still think it would be a better idea to do so. >> yeah. >> obviously the fed has done a lot in the last few weeks. zero rates open ended quantitative easing intervened to study markets like the credit market and the muni market and the mortgage market is there anything else the fed should be doing right now in your view? >> it's really impressive. the fed has acted aggressively, quickly. they have absolutely pulled out all the stops. and i think with the additional resources that the cares act

provides to provide equity for them to scale up their lending programs, they now have in place all of the facilities or almost all of the facilities that they'll need to provide massive support to the the economy to keep credit flowing we don't yet know the details of the main street lending program. that could be very important it's a brand new program they have no experience with it. they need to figure out how to run that there are a variety of possibilities, but with the new corporate lending programs, the primary credit facility, the secondary credit facility, the talf, as you've said they've cut interest rates to essentially zero and they are doing unlimited qe and interventions in the repo market, they're

providing massive support to the financial markets and in turn the economy. >> what about something like buying stocks? do you think the fed should be considering that and if not now, what would it take to get to that point >> well, the fed is not legally allowed to buy stocks. the fed is restricted to buying government debt and agency debt that has government backing. it would be a substantial change to give the federal reserve the ability to buy stock, but it is something that's done in a number of other countries, including japan. i, frankly, don't think it's necessary at this point. i think intervention to support the credit markets is more important, but longer term, i think it wouldn't be a bad thing for congress to reconsider the

powers that the fed has. the fed's powers are -- with respect to assets it can own is far more restricted than most other central banks and even with respect to owning corporate debt, the fed is not allowed to directly own corporate debt and most other central banks are >> yeah. i was just going to ask, if one of the goals is to stabilize the credit market, what about buying junk bonds is that something the feds should be looking to get the authority to do? >> well, i think that's something, givens the resources that they now have, that they need to think about carefully working with treasury to decide if that's appropriate. i think their priorities should be to start up the main street lending program and get these corporate facilities working there are issues about what the potential losses would be if they move beyond investment

grade bonds and corporations, but it's something if this lasts a long time, is worth thinking through carefully. >> while we're talking about policy support, you mentioned the c.a.r.e.s. act i think you praised it what else should congress be doing? if you were still advising the president, i know you did in the clinton white house, what would you be telling him as far as stimulus and just how long the government can really keep the economy and workers on this life support? >> well, i think it's absolutely essential for the government to protect workers. ideally to keep them attached to the jobs that they have so the economy can mores easily begin again when the lockdown period ends to support the income of vulnerable workers in households

and small businesses, so i think that needs to keep going if this lasts a long time, they'll need to be additional support for unemployment insurance, possibly further checks to support other needs that households have i think state and local governments need more support than the c.a.r.e.s. act provided, perhaps health insurance, particularly for workers who got health insurance through their jobs and that's been severed those would be things on my list >> when you were at the fed, was there ever any discussion of a pandemic and planning around something like this? i mean, how do you even prepare for this >> well, there was emergency planning when i was at the san francisco fed, we did tabletop exercises about how we would respond in

the event of, you know, a variety of earthquakes or tsunamis or health emergencies, but i don't know that the fed has ever done anything on this scale. but certainly the fed has taken very seriously the lesson learned from the financial crisis it learned about how to do emergency interventions and has made sure that one generation of policymakers transmitsz that knowledge to the next and i think we're seeing the benefit of that now that the fed has been able to quickly restart facilities where there was a huge learning curve during the 2008 crisis. >> i think people would be interested to know how you are

managing, how you're -- what you're doing on a daily basis and whether you advise and speak to the current chair powell? >> so i'm hunkered down at home with my family and telecommutin and learning about zoom and continuing to do my work i am talking with some policymakers i talk periodically, once in a while, with chair powell, but he's doing extremely well. my former colleagues, i feel very proud of them and i am conferring with some policymakers lots of economists i know and think tanks and in universities are thinking very hard about how we can intervene in order to have this terrible pandemic do the minimum damage possible to the economy. >> yeah. the ideas are flowing here at

cnbc as well jim cramer was just mentioning this idea to larry kudlow at the white house of instituting a type of war bond, because it would be so patriotic and people would be happy to contribute and invest and it would help the federal government to do more as you outlined needs to be done, what do you think about that kind of idea would that work? >> well, you know, the federal government is going to have enormous deficits. they're already running at about $1 trillion for this year before the fiscal intervepgntions and w we're probably looking at deficits well above $2 trillion. thinking about how to finance those is something very worthwhile, maybe a war bond is an appropriate approach. we're fortunate, the government is fortunate that we are in a low interest rate environment so that the interest burden of that

debt is likely to be manageable, at least for many years to come, but it is certainly appropriate to think about the best way to finance the debt and deficits. >> and finally, you know, i hate to even ask this question, but it's out there, so i will, you know with the scale of the job losses and the economic toll that that's taking on our country and the human toll and the devastation, more people are wondering if this is going to be a depression-like economic scenario how do you think about that? how do you even define that? >> well, i think that unemployment rates for a time may go to depression levels, but this is very different than the great depression or the recession in the u.s. economy that we experienced in 2009 and after.

this is -- we started with an economy that was in good shape, with the financial sector that was basically sound, and this is a health crisis. it's having severe economic effects, but if we're successful in supporting people's incomes during this time that the government can be, i believe we will be able to get back to a normally functioning economy in much shorter order than during the great depression after the great depression or evens the great recession. >> months? years? what is a short order? >> well, my hope is -- there's likely to be some lingering effect that could go on for years for reasons i earlier explained but my hope is unemployment will come down to normal levels pretty quickly

>> janet yellen thank you so much for your time and insight we appreciate it. >> my pleasure. >> the former chair of the federal reserve. hunker down at home like the rest of us, morgan >> and what a great interis view that was, sara thank you for bringing that to us good monday morning. i'm morgan brennan with sara eisen and jon fortt, coming to you live from separate locations as we continue to practice social distancing at cnbc. carl quintanilla will join us momentarily. biggest gains for the dow and s&p and nasdaq in seven sessions, you can see everything is up better than 4.5% this monday morning we've more than erased the losses we saw last week. moments ago we spoke with former fed chair janet yellen as you heard on our economic outlook. take a listen. >> a v, which is what we're all hoping for, is a best case scenario