it's reits, it's financials and it's the high-yield etfs >> all right nasdaq is up 1.25% that's a gain of 1% there. dow is about 30% up from its march 23rd low that does it for us. thanks so much for watching. i'll see you at 7:00 kelly picks it up now. >> thank you, scott. we'll see you then hi, everybody. it has been a wild day for investors with stocks in rally mode for a second day. the dow is now on pace for its best week since 1938 we have nearly 13% gains on the week and it's a shortened week, we're going to achieve in four days what previously took five let's check on the markets right now. we're up 524 points, 2.25% for the dow and s&p. the nasdaq lagging today, it's up about 1.25% but these gains despite terrible weekly jobless claims, jumping another .6 million it means in just three weeks, 10% of the u.s. labor force is out of work. but the fed announcing details

of its massive $2.3 trillion program today with some new support for junk bonds that sparked this move higher in stocks the package includes main street lending, payroll protection support, and backing for local governments. the market even shrugging off the senate's impasse over more small business relief funds that was supposed to be on the way today. they left town without getting that passed. and on top of all of that, oil extremely volatile, as investors wait official words on cuts from opec plus meeting today. crude up about 2%, so we're well off the spike we had earlier in the session. let's get the very latest now with mr. bob pisani, who as always, joins us for that. hi, bob. >> hello, kelly. good to see you, as always and energy banks, retail outperforming consumer staples, underperforming. this is very simple. i call it the restart of the economy stocks that are moving today so over 2,800 on the s&p 500. oil stocks like apache rallying

big today. kohl's in the retail sector rallying big the airlines are rallying big. kimco in the reits rallying, and even the restaurants like brinkers that owns chile's, they're rallying as well how about this high-yield move the fed shocked everybody saying not only are we buying corporate bonds and etfs, we're buying high-yield etfs. here's company that are now junk bond status, macy's gab, delta, ford they were investment, no longer. look at the moves in these stocks today tell me fed can't move tects market oh, boy, they certainly are. finally, the s&p 500, kelly, has retraced 50% of its losses it moved a thousand points down from february 19th to the bottom on march 23rd and has now regained almost exactly, almost 500 points, nearly 50% a remarkable move and we're talking 2 1/2 weeks. >> remarkable and even more so

given that time frame. bob, thank you so much now to the fed and that $2.3 trillion flood of money that bob was just talking about they're unleashing to help support the economy and giving us important new details about who is getting help now. steve liesman is here with all of that for us steve? >> kelly, thanks very much yes, it's an historic, unprecedented, especially to roll all of this out in one day. the federal reserve, piece by piece, attacking parts of the credit markets that remain unfunded or where there were potential funding lapses because of the coronavirus and the shutdown in the economy. i'm just going to provide you some of the broader details here bob gave you some really important ones i'll come back to it in a second the fed will buy $600 billion in loans that are going to be done through a main street lending facility we'll come back to the details on that. it's expanding the corporate credit programs and this term asset backed loan facility, to support up to $850 billion in credit inside that is the high-yield program that the fallen angels

are part of that, which are the ones who might have been -- who were investment grade and fell down below investment grade. that's why ford corporate bonds are soaring today. fed chair jay powell had a press conference earlier today -- not a press conference, a q&a session earlier today, and he explained the reason why it's incumbent on the fed and the government to step in in this case >> people are undertaking these sacrifices for the common good we need to make them whole to the extent we have them the ability to make them whole, we should be doing that as a society. they didn't cause -- their business isn't closed because of anything they did wrong. they didn't lose their job because of anything they did wrong. this is what the great fiscal power of the united states is for, is to protect these people. >> so this main street lending program, a few details off of that four-year loans. the principle and interest will be deferred for an additional year it's open to companies with 10,000 or fewer workers. revenue less than $2.5 billion while businesses of any size can

potentially take advantage of this, it's really for medium-sized businesses, ones that have substantial relationships with their banks that could take advantage. the muni facility will buy short-term notes directly from states and large counties and cities cities of greater than a million people counties of greater than 2 million people and there's the talf, open to aaa tranches of cmbs and crolos, leveraged obligations. so kelly, in my lifetime, your lifetime, the federal reserve going where no central bank or u.s. central bank has gone before and we'll see about the operational details that are going to be required to get these up and running and get this money out into the system >> steve, one clarification, are they going -- so the fallen angels issue makes sense to me companies that were investment grade, but are now junk bond status it sounds like they're providing liquidity to those facilities or that lending, but it also sounds

like they're buying junk bond etfs out right that would cover more of the junk bond world than just the fallen angels, right >> i do believe so, and i'll put an asterisk around that, which is, there are, i believe, five or six terms for the new facilities here and i cannot pretend to know every single detail i think you're right about that. it's in the term sheet i could call it up but, yeah wing that's right. i was just reading it before i got on this facility here, which says that they will buy -- the facility may also purchase u.s.-listed etfs whose objective is to provide broad support. investment grade corporate bonds and the remainder will be in etfs whose primary objective is u.s. high yields you are correct. that's what the term sheet says. investment yield >> we really appreciate, again, you can see why it's not just the fallen angels, but the whole

complex surging on that development. we'll have more in a little bit, but we appreciate it, steve, very much. steve liesman going through all of the details there and there are so many today. let's get more reaction to the fed's bold moves joining me are brian belski at bmo capital markets, and jason trennert welcome to both of you jason, your first thoughts on the fed's move extending into the junk bond space and some huge support for municipal bonds, as well >> yeah, i mean, it's pretty -- you know, when you think about the fact that before bear stearns failed, 90% of the fed's balance sheet, which is about $800 billion, was in treasuries, and you think about how far we've come in 11 years, it's pretty shocking, and i can't say i'm thrilled with it, in a certain sense, in that -- but i also think that it's necessary i think the fed is doing precisely the right thing. but theoretically, at least,

unelected officials shouldn't be having such a heavy hand in the overall economy, as a whole. i think that's very theoretical, by the same token, this is, as chairman powell said, this is a decision that this shutdown is largely being driven by government policy and so, by the same token, it seems only appropriate that the government would compensate or try to ease the pain that you're having on the economy as a whole but it's -- just, if you're a traditionalist, it's hard to feel really great about this, because it seems like we're pretty far away from what the initial idea of the fed was about -- you know, a little more than a hundred years ago >> it also reminds me a little bit of prices at the gasoline pump, where they rise very quickly, but fall very slowly. brian, i'll turn to you on this. the fed seems to be very -- quickly -- able to move very quickly, you know, to help everybody and lend support, but

it's very hard to unwind these programs once they've started. i guess from the investor's point of view, from the market side, they probably take this a as a good thing, right >> i think so. we go back to what we saw post-the credit crisis, where the fed got involved and clearly tapp t.a.r.p. was designed at first for the bank and if you take a look at where the market bottomed in march, financials for six or seven months, and for all intents and purposes, we were dead for ten years. is the same thing going to happen this time around with some of these companies that the fed came in to really help support whether or not it's a cruise line or an airline or other kind of consumer things. you have to really -- that's where you have to really put your fundamental hat on, kelly, and really see what the wherewithal of these companies are going forward. we've been on record by saying, we still think that the market made a bottom march 23rd we still said in print that day that the market would rally 40 to 50%, because we thought

people were way too bearish in making these big, depression-type calls. but i think jason made an excellent point. it's how we unroll this going forward. it's clearly not going to be anytime soon in 2020 this is a question of what happens in 2021 and 2022 and what the -- what and how the market digests that. but until them, we still think that this monetary and fiscal policy, the response has been very positive to refuel and build confidence back. not only to the consumer, but the stock market >> and we saw the consumer confidence, the number was awful this morning brian, i want to ask you, because you said, we had this sharp rally in the financials after '08, but they were dead for a decade do you see similar trends playing out with the hardest-hit sectors here and i guess another way of saying the question is, where would you recommend investors be positioned can you own the s&p 500 index fund and be fine >> well, you know, we've never been big believers in terms of indexing in general. part of our job, also, is to be

a portfolio manager. so we clearly default to more active stock-picking strategies. i would say this, you know, for 20 years as a strategist, i talked about how i think there's way too much capacity in the consumer land. maybe this is one of those situations where we take out some of these underperforming companies in consumer land and we don't really need anymore maybe we're going to see massive reworkings of how we consume money, kelly, whether or not it's online or costco or walmart and continue to be that type of strength i think that the consumer never, ever, ever bet against the consumer's wherewithal, but bet against how these companies are going to make money going forward. and i think that's a very, very key component. that's why, from a longer term perspective, we are still overweight communication services, discretionary, and technology with respect to our u.s. holdings for the next 12 to 18 months >> jason, let me bring you in on that and again, the walmart and coastco comps have been fantastic. but i can tell you, even locally speaking, it's getting harder

and harder to go to the supermarket. you know, the checkout line, just the whole experience, it's -- you know, if there was a way to avoid it going forward, i would. something that brian said i thought was interesting, he said, for 20 years, we had too much consumer capacity maybe now is the way to take that out, but not if the fed is providing support writ large, right? >> well, i still think it will lessen the blow, but by the same token, it doesn't matter what the interest rate is, if there's no revenues, you still can't make the -- you don't have the cash flow to make the interest expense. so it will help larger companies with more -- with access to more permanent capital. i think that, you know, one of the things that will unfortunately be a part of this, and i know they're trying to move heaven and earth to help, which is appropriate, small and medium-sized businesses, local businesses that don't have access to that capital and unfortunately, as much as they're trying to help, the government is trying to help,

you really are in a situation where it's very touch and go you know, a lot of these companies operate with very low margins to begin with. again, they don't have permanent capital. so it will be interesting and we pray that a lot of those companies pull through if not, there's going to be an ability for companies that have access to these programs to consolidate a lot of excess capacity, particularly in the retail space >> and that's another way maybe to think about it as an investor we'll speak with some of these small businesses a little bit later on, but we'll leave it there for now. thank you both today appreciate your thoughts, brian belski and jason trennert. coming up, treasury secretary mnuchin optimistic today about reopening the economy, saying "may" is a possibility, but bill gates says opening earlier won't get you the economic recovery you think it will. and oeurasia group's ian bremme

joins us ahead and take a look at shares of the banks as we thaed head to a qui break. they are higher across the board. citigroup and wells fargo leading the gains. leading the gains. wlp blp our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence. they help us with achievable steps along the way... ...so we can spend a bit today, knowing we're prepared for tomorrow. wow dad, do you think you overdid it maybe? i don't think so... what do you think, peanut? nope! honey, do you think we overdid it?

overdid what? see? we don't think so, son. technically, grandparents can't overdo it. it's impossible. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement.

. welcome back microsoft cofounder and gates foundation co-chair bill gates says the kmeconomy won't magical go back to normal when people return to work he spoke with our becky quick

who joins me now live with many of the challenges that he sees ahead. he was pretty sober in this discussion today >> reporter: yeah, kelly, you know, i think he's just being realistic in terms of understanding that the american public has been pretty deeply affected by everything that's happened with coronavirus, particularly in those areas that have been hardest hit by coronavirus. and i think this is a recognition, really, that it's going to take more than just a declaration of all-clear for the economy to actually open up again. >> no one should think the government can wave a wand and all of a sudden, you know, the economy is anything like it was before this happened that awaits either a miracle therapeutic that has over a 95% cure rate or broad usage of the vaccine. >> gates thinks that the economy is really going to open up in stages maybe critical areas first, places like construction and manufacturing, and then maybe schools, as well, because of the number of young people that are involved there, and because

young people seem to be much less affected by the coronavirus, so he's hoping that schools, of course, can open by the fall, as well. but then when you start talking about other things, maybe sporting events, things that require people to come out in great numbers to arenas or other places, he says that that's going to have to be debated. just the idea of what the risk to gdp is versus what the risk to the american health is. as far as a vaccine goes, they have been working very seriously on this at the gates foundation. and one thing that i thought was pretty optimistic and some good news in this is that they have identified at least 20 different compounds. he said, 20 compounds that could be very effective as a vaccine however, downside to that is, he thinks that that timeline is something like 18 months before you'll see a vaccine that can be broadly manufactured and ruled out, because you have all kinds of challenges that come with that not only just broad manufacturing and enough to make sure that you have 500 million doses or more that can be put out so you start really effectively vaccinating people, but just the dosages themselves. he says that in general,

vaccines are less effecti iviven older people how you usually get herd immunity, it's the younger people that the vaccines work on and that protects the older people that you have to have much higher doses to make an effective vaccination for an older person, and that in turns raises all kinds of questions about how do you get a high enough dosage people that it's effective for an older person without put young people at risk and pregnant women at risk, and that will take some time to figure out but also something on the more optimistic front, something that could come faster, he did say that therapeutics for coronavirus could come at a much faster pace. >> manufactured antibodies are using the blood of recovered patients in order to help treat people who are just getting sick those, there's enough of them that in aggregate, i would say it's very likely will have those interventions in the four to six-month time frame but how much that will cut the death rate in these overloads, you know, is still a bit uncertain. >> and kelly, he did say that just in terms of when things

start to open up for the u.s. economy, he's looking at the end of may, at the earliest. zp >> so he's kind of on the same page as secretary mnuchin there, but the way that bill gates would characterize it is, it's going to be is a very low return to, quote/unquote, anything like normal >> yeah, he said he's getting his thoughts together in the next week, trying to figure out how we can go about that, a plan that kind of works with that, but he did say that it's a discussion that lots of people should be involved in and this should be a broad discussion with the american public >> all right, becky, thanks very much a lot of interesting stuff we appreciate it becky quick talking to bill gates today. coming up, 625,000 requests and $80 billion in loans that's what jpmorgan and bank of america have seen in two days for the small business program we've got the latest numbers and we'll speak with a small business who's hoping this will help her get her restaurants back on track. plus, it's all about the math unprecedented cuts in the oil market are necessary to bring stability to prices, but will we get them we'll discuss as the oil price continues to chop around remember, you can always watch

or listen to us live on the go t cc p. cnbc is back after this. too early... or too late. or make me feel like i'm not really "there." talk to your doctor, and call 844-234-2424. as someone with hearing loss i know what a confusing and frustrating experience getting hearing aids can be. that's why i founded lively. affordable, high-quality hearing aids with all of the features you need, and none of the hassle. i use lively hearing aids and it's been wonderful. it's so light and so small but it's a fraction of the cost of the other devices. they cost thousands less. it's insanely user friendly. you take the hearing test online, the doctor programs in the settings. you don't even need to go into an office. they're delivered to your door in a few days and you're up and running in no time. it connects via bluetooth to my phone. you can stream music and you can answer phone calls. the audiologist was so incredible she's full of all kinds of little helpful hints

i love it. they're a game changer for me. i feel like i can take on anything. it feels great to be in control of my hearing. better hearing has never been this easy. try lively risk-free for 100 days. visit listenlively.com

welcome back congress just left town today without putting more money into the pot for the small business relief program demand has been off the charts some 440,000 applications have been assigned that all-important loan number at a value of some $110 billion but treasury secretary steve mnuchin this morning reassuring us that everyone will be taken care of. >> there are a lot of small businesses out there that this has been a lifesaver and, you know, the banks have been overwhelmed so the issue is, they'll get to all of these customers, and we want to make sure the customers know, whether they're charities or small businesses, that they didn't have accounts, the banks will get to all of them. >> let's check in with kate rogers as we approach the one week mark. and kate, there must be some disappointment that the senate didn't approve more funds today. >> certainly, kelly. a lot of concern about that. and for businesses who are still in limbo on that ppp funding,

there is another option, it's called an economic injury disaster loan of up to $2 million, directly from the sba to cover emergency expenses like payroll and bills. the sba had been touting that business owners could get an advance on the loan of up to $10,000 within just days of applying, but much like these ppp loans, business owners are telling us they haven't heard anything from the sba about these grants we haven't been able to find anyone who had gotten that funding. the sba also declined to comment on eild amounts and processes after changing its guidance earlier in the week to just $1,000 per employee, as a part of that grant program. now, business owners like erin girdiman, a gym owner in ohio are applying for all the aid they can get and just hoping that something comes through quickly. >> i haven't had any clients or generating any revenue since march 16th and i'm sitting here, waiting to see what's going on with the government aid. i'm hoping that we get some of

this resolution to this very soon >> now, a senior administration official tells us that disbursement amounts we keep asking for from banks to businesses won't be made available for some time. i did just got off the phone with a business owner that did get his ppp loan funded in full, $890,000 from a credit union that he's worked with for over ten years back in salt lake city >> i'm thinking, if the senate didn't approve more money today, and they have more time, but tomorrow is when next round is supposed to begin with the independent contractors, so forth. it's first come, first serve and tomorrow is good friday. are people going to be -- how are they supposed to even communicate with the banks about this >> so a lot of this is supposed to be done online. very few of the businesses that i've spoken to have actually gone to a branch to do this. they've talked to their bankers and done everything on the web now, as you mentioned, tomorrow is a holiday i don't know how easy it's going to be to get anyone on the phone. i don't know how many people will be working.

the independent contractors and self-employed businesses can apply tomorrow hopefully, more funding will be on the way there are a lot of concerns about that but, again, this has been a logjam, a big backlog of loans to get through they're slowly trickling out we've talked to two businesses now that have gotten funding we hope the story changes next week and many more will be in touch with us that have actually gotten this cash >> we really appreciate the reporting. kate rogers with the very latest for us with more on how that small business relief program is working, i'm joined by madeleine alfono, the owner of maria's italian kitchen. you've applied for funding have you received yours yet? >> thankfully, i work with a great bank, mission valley bank, it's a community bank, and someone just mentioned that it's good friday, but i can guarantee you that our bankers are working the entire weekend they worked all last weekend i put in my application on friday i spoke with daniel epstein, the

evp there. he worked with me on friday, on saturday, on sunday, and on monday to get all -- to get my application through. i signed it yesterday and we should see our funding by april 17th, which is amazing, but it's really through the work of the community bank, my relationships, their relationships, my loyalty, their loyalties to the community they've been amazing so i hope others have that same experience with their banks, the way i do >> tell us how you'll use the cash as soon as you get it i know the idea is that you have to use it within eight weeks, although, i mean, you might get yours relatively early on, maybe they extend that period, but what's the plan once you receive those funds? >> that's a good question. that's the challenge, so we rushed to get the loan and then you get it and then you have eight weeks. and that takes us to the first week of june so my numbers are, you know, we started out with 348 employees before covid we now have 180. of those, we closed two

locations. our oxnard location and our montana location, which is about 53 employees, i think i sent that information to you. but the challenge is that many of them are servers, bus esers those that did choose not to come back and take a lot position or are unable to. in order for us to bring everyone back, we have to have our complete operation, meaning full-service dining. that's the problem they might have to extend that eight weeks through 12 weeks, maybe through the first of july. but our hope is we'll be able to bring back everyone and we furloughed and the other thing we'r working on, too, is that the family leave, there's a -- there's so many initials are coming out the acronyms are beyond belief but we have two of our single moms that are going on the family leave program, which is great. so they can get that -- stay home and take care of their children, and also know when they're ready come back to work and schools are open, we have a position for them. it's really exciting for me to

do that. >> and we thank you for the update it will be very interesting to see how the next few weeks play out for you, and of course, a microcosm of the whole economy thank you for joining me today madeleine alfono is the owner of maria's italian kitchen. a quick programming note, house speaker nancy pelosi will join jim cramer for "mad money" tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern time hope flip with another update on whether more money is coming soon to the small business lending program coming up, more infighting in europe. ian bremmer says this epidemic is accelerating the future he'll join us next to explain. plus, he's not a household name, but he's making big waves in the oil world why his ideas artangheduryy e kt inst bstorm.

welcome back stocks continue to move higher the dow is up 565 points, that's 2.4%, still off the absolute highs of the session, but some pretty nice gains. the s&p up 2.5%. the nasdaq up 1.4% it's the laggard today in terms of the sectors, all 11 are higher financials, utilities, and real estate leading the way 6.5% gain for the financials today. jpmorgan not surprisingly leading the dow, boeing as well, and disney up there in terms of leadership for the blue chips today. all of this following the fed's big announcement this morning. we also have some big moves to the upside in retail with gap, kohl's, macy's and nordstrom's seeing gains of more than 10% today and the cruise lines are also surging norwegian, royal caribbean and carnival up double digits, up about 20% in norwegian's case. and finally, take a look at shares of ford, which are soaring today, because the fed announced it will be buying what

they call fallen angel debt and ford is among them let's get to the very latest now on the coronavirus pandemic. over to sue herrera for the headlines at this hour sue? >> thank you very much, kelly. good afternoon, everyone here's the latest. the global death toll of the pandemic has now risen above 90,000, with more than 15,000 here in the u.s. it's still ongoing, but moments ago, new jersey governor phil murphy in his news conference reported 198 deaths since yesterday, bringing that state's total to 1,700 new jersey also saw a surge of new cases more than 3,700 in just the last 24 hours house speaker nancy pelosi says there is still time to negotiate over small business assistance and other measures sought by democrats. she says democrats are determined to make it easier for small business to get access to stimulus funds and as you've probably heard, pelosi will be jim cramer's guest on "mad money" tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern time

overseas, britain reporting 881 new deaths from the coronavirus since yesterday. that brings the country's total to nearly 8,000. prime minister boris johnson remains in intensive care, but foreign minister dominic raab says that johnson is making, quote, positive steps. we expect more on mr. johnson's situation in just a few minutes. as always, you can get more on the coronavirus coverage at cnbc by going to cnbc.com kelly, back to you >> sue, thanks very much p big business is facing big political pressure to reorganize supply chains to put national interests first, not profits is this a glimpse of the future and what does it mean for investors? joining me now is ian bremmer, president of the eurasia group ian, great to see you. lovely backdrop, by the way, which is neither here nor there. >> i did it all for you. >> it's really -- >> -- together >> it's really lift mig spiringy spirits. but tell us how dramatically you think these trends are shifting

because of coronavirus what's it going to look like in the future >> well, we're going to move from a just-in-time supply chain to a just-in-case supply chain that means we're going to see a lot more production where consumers actually are china will be less the factory of the world there's also going to be a lot more inequality in the supply chain, because you're going to take a lot of the labor costs out of it. you're going to try to make it more efficient in terms of labor, as you have to create more resilience, which itself is more expensive this is particularly going to hurt the u.s./china relationship, which was already moving in that direction on the technology side, as you know i mean, companies like twitter and facebook aren't doing business in china. and huawei is certainly not going to be doing business in the united states anytime soon that's going to start broadening out to involve both manufacturing and services add to that nationalizations and bailouts of companies under that distress that will have conditionality from the countries that are giving them

money, saying, you've got 15% unemployment, you've got to make sure the people you hire are in the country that's actually bailing you out. all of that is moving towards deglobalization. >> absolutely. and it's something, i think, people are coming to grips with, and in a way, there's not much you can go to invest around this theme. it just tells you, this is how the world is going to change but let me ask you about some of the relationships, u.s. and china, you mentioned, you know, that it would hurt that relationship europe, they're fighting right now over these corona bonds and how much the northern countries should be paying for the southern countries when we talk about deglobalization, i mean, to what point does this -- you know, how far does it go >> well, i mean, there's not a near-term risk that the eurozone falls apart, but this is a global pandemic, right but the pandemic is the only thing that's global about it the responses are completely national they're completely uncoordinated. that's true at the eu level and

it's true at the global level between the united states and its allies the u.s. is doing an awful lot domestically, even though it's late, on the health care side. but, you know, if you look at the amount of stimulus, the amount of relief you're talking about, the expected stimulus coming down the pike, these are big numbers and they're important. but internationally, the united states is doing nothing, right there's a complete absence of leadership there's no multi-lateral coordination, not on supply chain. in fact, it's the other way around we're saying, here are a whole bunch of new ppe that you're not allowed to export from the united states. that's coming down today from the trump administration over 70 countries are doing that this is a time when you need supply chains to be coordinated, to be maximized for efficiency to ensure that goods go at a decent price where they need to go the response is the exact opposite of that >> and the most interesting thing to me is actually going to be the future of china so final question, kind of paint this one for us, if you can.

but you have japan now paying firms to leave china and relocate their production elsewhere. the u.s. is pushing hard to kind of move along the same trend so if you're china right now, what does the future look like >> well, if you're china, there are some countries that are going to be moving away from you and other countries that desperately need you let's keep in mind that the united states approach towards allies has been mostly stick, either come with us or we're going to sanction you. come with us or we won't chair intelligence china has been offering a carrot not much of a carrot, small and rotten carrot, but here's a carrot here's some tests, maybe they don't all work, but here they are. here's some medical personnel. we're selling all this stuff and giving some aid too. there's a lot of companies that can pay companies to move back most companies around the world are going to be more aligned with beijing, in descending order, southeast asia, sub-saharan africa, south and eastern europe, the poorer of

the european states, and south america. so coming out of this, much more bifurcation, much less globalization. >> absolutely. it's like breaking apart like the artwork behind you i'm trying to make some analogy, because i keep looking at it >> fragmentation >> ian, thank you so much. i appreciate it. ian bremmer with the our aseura group. still ahead, it would be a production cut the world has never seen before in terms of scope and size, but this is not even a rescue of oil and gas, it only buys time next with the latest on the saudis and russia reaching a deal in principle. before the break, take a look at disney, one of the dow leaders having a nice gain of about 6.5% subscription numbers for disney plus havnoe w surpassed 50 million globally investors like what they hear. we're back in two.

welcome back to "the exchange." as more americans stay home, airports are getting emptier and

emptier, as you can see in the images behind me yesterday, there were only 94,931 total passengers in the whole country that went through tsa. a year ago today, it was 2.2 million. the airlines right now are rallying after being down hard this year. american, united, spirit, and jetblue leading the way with double-digit gains of nearly 18%. treasury secretary mnuchin saying today that help for the airline industry is the next big thing to be rolling out. and meanwhile, it's been a volatile day in the oil market with crude up as much as 12% earlier to now come negativeon the session, just in the commercial break investors are still awaiting a decision on a potential production cut from opec plus. that meeting happening right now. let's get to the very latest with brian sullivan. we've had headlines all day, brian, that sounded hugely promising. and now what >> i'm shocked that we get hugely promising opec headlines in the beginning and then as they all come into a room, things kind offall apart i'm shocked. it doesn't matter whether you're on a virtual meeting or a real meeting in vienna.

listen, this is the way it goes. let's remember something we are not talking about oil i mean, we are, but we're not. we're talking about money. state revenues government revenues. this is all a conversation about cash flow, oil just happens to be the source of that. while is oil turned around well, listen, the longer these meetings go on and a flurry of headlines come out, you can be sure that people believe that the differences inside that virtual room may be greater than people think secretary mohammad out earlier today with the introductory speech some pretty dire stuff basically, this is more demand cut than in the great recession. the demand drop is, quote, unprecedented and available storage. and that is key, is filling up quickly. okay from the sources that i have talked to, sort of, whatsapp, texted with all day long, here's a couple of things that we can talk about a deal is likely to be 10 to 15 million barrels. that could be close. now, that's a huge gap, kelly. i get it, because we don't know

how much 10 to 15 is opec plus or if that includes brazil, canada, norway, as well. and here's one major thing, opec would like assurances, according to my sources that the u.s. will cut. now, we don't have a national producer we can't just say we'll cut. the closest thing we've got that guy coming up that can quota it. opec is worried just because companies say they're going to cut, kelly, doesn't mean they're bound to it. but here's what my source tells me remember, if exxon or chevron comes out and says we're cutting capital spending, that's a -- they have a fiduciary responsibility to abide by that or come back and change their viewpoint. so we might not have an opec, but we have an s.e.c. and that can do the legal work around making sure that companies do what they've told investors they will do. >> that's interesting, brian and also, as we speak to ryan, he's not the only commissioner so he might be backing the idea of forcing these cuts, but it's not clear that everybody else is

even onboard with that >> yeah, it takes two-thirds majority it's only three of them, by the way. never have three people been on the line for maybe as many possible jobs as these three folks have let's consider, every time we talk about rig counts, which are down huge again this week. every time we talk about production cuts, capital spending cuts, it's easy to city in this office behind a camera and forget that those are jobs, those are families, those are mortgage, those are car payments, nose are kids school there's so much on the line here by the way, opec continues to discuss -- tomorrow is g-20. our markets are closed, kelly, which means the futures markets are closed here, too so we get some giant move in oil prices, we won't know until sunday night >> chathat's a great point >> there's my estimates, by the way. >> put 'em back up for a second. your estimates for what opec may

come to plus other members of the g-20 in terms of a cut if we get -- >> that's 11.75 million barrels, by the way i'll take, how much will opec and the g-20 cut for 600 and it's probably going to be a daily double, kelly. time stamp that and we'll see if it holds >> oil has now turned negative, so investors are getting pretty skittish brian, we'll see you again soon. for now, i am joined by ryan sitton, one of the three officials on the texas railway commission they are tasked with regulates oil and gas, not the rail roads. listen, is this binary on what happens with opec in terms of what steps texas might take? >> you saidbinary, as if they'll cut, we cut, they don't, we don't i don't think so we've got to look at the scl landscape. regardless of what happens, inventories are getting so full -- sorry, what? >> ryan, going back to you, you

were just saying, regardless of what happens, inventories are getting so full. even if you stopped production today, you would still have an overcapacity problem >> that's right. and once inventories fill up, then what's going to happen is production in the united states is going to drop dramatically. and so there's going to be a reduction in global production very soon. the question is, is it planned or not and we're going to see it coming out of the united states, regardless, really, of whether there are cuts overseas zp >> that's why people say, your commission doesn't need to do anything because the market will take care of itself. they say exxon is reducing capex production by 30%. the rig count is down 170 in the past three weeks do you guys need to step in and do anything or will the production fall naturally? >> on the 14th, we're having that exact production. once supply chain gets completely locked up, which happens when you have no intermittent storage, now it

becomes rr difficult to maximize production one of the key things people say is, look, if we let storage fill up completely, maybe don't do anything, but then a refinery shuts down and an oil producer hundreds of miles away and upstream has to shut down immediately and it's hard to do. we'll have a real imbalance in that case. people are asking, if they pro-rate or they cut, we cut, we start leaving ourselves our stoerm storage, the entire industry will work a lot more efficiently. >> so parsley engineer have requested these production cuts. i know you've said you're open to the idea, but your fellow commissioners do not appear to be open to that idea you guys meet on tuesday to review what companies like exxon have said. and exxon is not if favor of it. the vote would be the following tuesday on april 21st and would only take effect on may 1st, even if you do come to some kind of an agreement. is it going to be too late >> i don't think it's going to be too late.

it is later than it should be. if we need to do this, which is still the question, which ideally, we would have done it, you know, three weeks ago, four weeks ago. but look, in the middle of this downturn, it's very hard to move fast, with new things or new approaches but you mentioned, look, i think the three commissioners are fairly close all of us are cautious all of us are free market people all of us say, we want to do what's best for texans, for americans. so we're evaluating this no one has come out and said, we are absolutely, 100% for it. we also haven't said we're 100% against it my thing is try to put data out there and speak into this as an opposition my biggest disappointment has been, some people have said, we don't even want to have the conversation in fact, i think that's been shortsighted and a lot of the market agrees >> so we also know in these projections are super interesting from you guys, you say, look, what happens is with the oil market is contingent on when shelter in place orders are lifted if they are lifted in may, the market could get back to normal by september if they're not lifted until august, it could take two more

years. so there is a huge swing for how long we take to get the economy back to normal i wonder if opec doesn't cut at all today and we've seen the oil price swing negative, if there is no, you know, 20 million barrel cut or anything like that coming, is that going to force your hand? on these economic models, downturns. if we end up sheltering in place through august, i think the world will get down to a consumption level of 65 million barrels a day. you say where's that going to come from? that's going to come out of everywhere in the end, everybody's going to cut if we end up having that scenario the question is it a planned way or a reactive way and does it end up crushing some people while others stay okay or does everybody share the load while we get through this downturn

those are the fundamental questions. >> you're sympathetic to that idea >> to trying to cut? >> kind of having everybody share it >> i think i heard before i got on, you were talk about supply chains energy supplies have got to be table if we expect any sort of rapid recovery out of this recession. if we lock up the supply chain with no internet and storage, put a lot plof dutseof producer business, i'm concerned it will not be stable. i think that's bad for everybody. i think this is a time with this unprecedented level of challenge on everybody around the world that we would also have an unprecedented level of cooperation. yes, i'm absolutely open to the idea >> all right commissioner, we thank you again. >> thanks for having me. >> hope to check back in with you. coming up, high yeield bonds are surging today.

the fed does an about face and swoop sboos ts into the market a buyer. mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart. choose the app that fits your investing style. ♪ 100% online car buying. carvana's had a lot of firsts. car vending machines. and now, putting you in control of your financing. at carvana, get personalized terms, browse for cars that fit your budget, then customize your down payment and monthly payment. and these aren't made-up numbers. it's what you'll really pay, right down to the penny. whether you're shopping or just looking. it only takes a few seconds, and it won't affect your credit score. finally! a totally different way to finance your ride.

only from carvana. the new way to buy a car.

for more on the importance of this move, i'm joined by tom kennedy. what's your reaction to fed's move here in. >> i'm incredible by impressed

they are widening their foot print. >> we're going to have you restate what you said. >> it's the foughten angel there will be names downgraded from high yield. >> what would your advice to investors be now >> i think you have to acknowledge there's a new player in this market high yield has lagged the rally we seen in equities the last two weeks. one of these markets had it correct. either equities have to settle lower or high yields the rally given the rally you've seen now

you defensively step in. the fed will be involved in that part of the market >> do you worry about how long they stay involved and how long to hold these bonds? >> yes and no. yes meaning i don't think they want to have a big footprint in high yield but powell said it today. as you know i spent a lot of time with these guys they're not going to be in a rush to the door we should assume they will be players. >> which has some people worried. they will exposed to credit losses there's philosophical questions which is why sometimes it's nice to talk to the practictioners who kind of don't have to worry about that the message they seem to be taking is it's a game on for credit of all stripes and for equities, right? >> yes in some regards the fed is making it very clear to us that they are not going to let liquidity problems cause

insolvency when i look at this situation we're in with covid, we have two problems the economy is going to be very challenged we should not ignore that. the liquidity crunch we were experiencing for three to six weeks, the fed is really stepped in and actively told us this is not going to be an issue they are pointing liquidity into places they have never been too. municipals, high yield, investment grade they have the ammunition to do it kelly, one thing to also acknowledge, this feels like they're doing a lot. they only levered up half of the roughly 500 billion that the treasury nut there they have more they can do >> this is just half of what could be dock coming out of and it's an incredible amount already. thanks we appreciate it. >> thank you our breaking news coverage does continue.

we'll head to the front lines of the coronavirus crisis the ceo in new jersey will join us his hospital is at the epicenter of the outbreak. we'll be back after this short break. take us long to realize ... ...we weren't in the car business. at lexus, we were in the people business. we needed to be helpful . . . . . . respectful . . . and compassionate. to treat people like guests. it's what we all signed up for. and now when people need this most, we will do what we've always done. take care of people first. the rest will follow.

when yowhat do you see?itical issues facing our world, we see breakthrough medicines getting to patients in record time. we see harnessing natural gas unleashing the promise of clean energy. we see engineers simulating the future to improve today.

at emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. welcome back, every one to our breaking coverage. welcome, everybody the dow up more than 500 points as the fed unleashes yet another wave of shock and awe on the economy. more than two trillion more in programs today tsu