the bulls, bear are 20%, 25% outcome probability. this is not an exact science, but those are the parameters we're dealing with when we got down to 2,400, we were aggressive, we felt the downside was limited there are always things to do. as you always talk about, there's a bull market in something always that's the other part of our message, people need to be thinking about what's the next bull market. >> all right excellent. we may hear from this guy coming up now, that's an express he uses a lot, cramer does. mike wilson, thanks. we'll end today with the dow indicated up about 400 points. time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber coming to you live from various locations. dow futures up 400 as j&j and jpmorgan kick off earnings season with signs of strength.

ten states are beginning to work on plans to open parts of their economy. maybe in may, the fed launches a commercial paper funding fa s t facili facility there is an argument that calls for stocks to retest are fading. >> i thought yesterday was an important day with the dave kostin change. i did a lot of work, help with larry williams, about how many times when you have a 50% retracement or more, we have a retest the answer is almost never i think there's a lot of people coming on -- someone came on the air this morning and said in every single case you have to have a retest. that's completely untrue if you bounced up 50% beginning last friday that's what we did. a lot of people say this thing is based on large cap companies. that's what we do. we're not trading luncheonettes

here that's not to the detriment of luncheonettes. we're not trading hair salons. that's not the way it works. we trade large capitalization companies that do better than smaller ones in this environment. that's life. is it fair no but it's what we do for a living yeah though, jim, as you said on "squawk," small business is a function of employment, and h s hence demand that's where you are more cautious, the degree with which demand comes back, the speed >> yes i know people say because you're in the new jersey/new york area. as much as i would like to think i live somewhere else, i live in a climate where you're feeling great about costco because they have a very definitive plan to make it so you don't have contact with somebody else maybe others thrive in contact in places where there's not much of a pandemic. to the people who thrive on that it's coming for you.

we don't have a vaccine. j&j will be doing human trials in september glaxosmithkline got together with sanofi, they are talking about the end of next year we need contact tracing, testing and something that gets youout of the hospital faster we don't have any of those three. i'm waiting. now i know that's heresy to put triad out there. it is the truth. the truth is is that we're not safer than we were we know this thing is more contagious we don't have masks for everybody. the thing google came out with yesterday with apple was fantastic but dismissed by the government i say listen, if i want to be open for business but i want people to come, i don't feel that you have it in this area. >> antiviral is an important part of that, too. we mentioned that many times

all the things you just said plus the antivirals, many people believe we would be okay your point is a good one, perhaps we're -- given the area we live in, and how hard we've been here, we don't have a few that much of the rest of the country has. that may well be true, but your point is an important one in terms of what i continue to hear from business leaders is that it's going to be a recovery that takes a lot longer and that a return to true behavior prior to the virus spreading in this country is just not going to happen until all those things are in place and even then until people fully understand and believe that even if they do get it, they won't be ending up in the hospital and bridging us from that point to the point where we have a vaccine. >> if remdesivir -- it's a small sample, 68%, we can get that to

80%, 85%, that means that you think that if you go to the hospital and you get out of the hospital, that will change a lot of people. >> but that's -- that's -- maybe, jim, but that's -- that's the middle ground. you want something where you can take the oral antiviral, but when you immediately test positive, before you have any symptoms that is what you really want and need >> yes i also want -- >> the remdesivir is important, but it's infused it's in the hospital you don't want to get to that point. that won't stop somebody from thinking twice about -- i don't even know, touching packages >> yesterday google and apple, in two weeks they came up with something, if you're willing to give your information to public health, they can flash you if you're within 10 to 15 feet of somebody who has it. your alarm goes off, you get tested that's what we need to get back into the game. we have to get tested ourselves,

instant okay, and then a warning system so if we're touching someone, near someone, on a bus or subway, if it tells us that person had it, you have go back and get something or self-quarantine. we don't have these things yet i think it's a moving target i think if they decide, you know what we'll wait until we have all those things and open for business, that's too late. that's the hard place. you have to start thinking the nfl is talking about having a season thanksgiving. so maybe they play six games people may laugh at that, but they have to have something. i would not have an emergency plan for things going better we have a gazillion emergency plans for things going worse >> we're not the only ones trying to talk about where the parameters are here. jpmorgan, we have to get to it eventually what do we make of these credit reserves and the assumptions baked into that? >> i thought it was better

i didn't feel like the dividend was in question. i felt like this is a time when you compare it to europe where we have this phenomenal cushion that really did work and does work i know jamie dimon, talking to wilf on the call, jsame my soundsoun jamie sounded confident. the amount of money they drew down, the 50 million on the existing credit lines. david, what should be the potential loss on those? >> that's the question they fulfilled the obligation there. i don't know what the loss will be neither do they. we are monitoring the call and we'll bring you anything of importance as we get it. they did add 6$6.8 billion to reserves for this period of

time, in part for some of those revolvers pulled down that may not get fully paid back. you're not just talking about corporate indebtedness but also people who are losing their jobs and unable to pay back on their credit card as well. jamie did say it was necessary to reserve -- build this reserve because of a likelihood of a fairly severe recession. wells fargo only added 4 billion to its reserves. we will also monitor that call when it occurs later in the moment >> weren't you surprised how many accounts wells fargo added? when i went over it, the new ceo, charlie scharf, good loan growth, year over year deposits, 1.3 trillion up 75 billion. for a company regarded as a black sheep in banking, they got

a lot of deposits. who knows. here's a line that i worried about, and maybe wilf will deal with this later. this is the first time i've seen anyone from the network. good to see you, partner what are they excited about? over 16,000 atms were open who thought that would be what we were excited about, open atms >> assets under management, the vast majority of atms operational. the if we get a sense that the reserve building is done in q2, that will have major implications for how people view not just the stocks but the trajectory of the economy overall this year. >> look, i'm beginning to think that i'm living in the wrong area here's some clown who says cramer is very afraid. give me a break. you know >> you're going to work every single day you're not that afraid >> i come here, i came back from

the super bowl i had this idea. i said there's a pandemic coming i don't care that nobody is dead this thing will devastate our country. was i afraid then? yeah, clown! sorry, i was supposed to be jimmy chill. >> take it easy. >> we're getting numbers i thought when j&j came out, they first talked about the dividend increase. i said, geez, maybe they're not reporting. but they gave you that they said we have that they gave you a forecast i said holy cow, a forecast! we have a forecast i like j&j then listerine is back i'm sorry to be happy for little things, if you want to call me afraid, that's a bad call. that's a bad call. >> there is the question -- the question of course is what we'll see for this quarter and whether or not that 6.8 billion to your point is

actually to take care of what they believe will occur or is simply going to be incremental and they'll add more we don't know. we may get more color on the call in terms of what specifically they're seeing in terms of the trends for the first 14 days of this month. that's what you need to know that's what you need to know why would you take out a loan? we need customers. anybody got customers? >> yeah. well, jim, that's what you got to with chip burg of levis last night on "mad money. ten states working on how do we reopen the economy potentially in may cuomo saying the worst is over this is what chip bergh told jim last night >> we're trying to learn a lot about coming back to business, what happens with traffic, how do we manage hours, store expenses, how do we get the

consumer back? we're learning a lot from that and inform us going forward. >> direct to consumers, went from 30% to 40%. here's a quiz. what market is on fire what mar set is he doing the best in right now? what's the number one market wuhan. just opened in wuhan and it's crushing. it is. it's crushing. said wuhan is just great they had a grand opening last week it's hope, but it's hope in another country. i think chip made a very compelling case that iconic brands will survive. i point that out because disney, a lot of people talking about, wait a minute, espn is taking pay cuts, disney is cautious in shanghai disney is an iconic brand. iconic brands will survive you have to decide whether levis is something that's 167 years

old and is going to make it. are people going to come to levis stadium for football two you want 70,000 people sitting there, fist pumping? i would say no there i am afraid. i don't want to do that. maybe you guys are cool with that >> no. jim, there's a -- sikh emanuel said large scale gatherings, conferences, sporting events, concerts, in his view not safe until the fall of 2021, which is longer than some people are thinking >> yeah. i think there's a question how quickly you can make that vaccine. that will be hard to make. j&j was optimistic >> we'll get to more of course coming up. when we come back, some of the calls that are out on the street

today including some on netflix, another downgrade of deere, stuff on square and roku and other names as well. we're back ia men mont life isn't a straight line. and sometimes, you can find yourself heading in a new direction.

but when you're with fidelity, a partner who makes sure every step is clear, there's nothing to stop you from moving forward.

stay-at-home -- >> when you say my authority, the president's authority. it's not me. this is -- when somebody is the president of the united states, the authority is total that's the way it's got to be.

>> total >> it's total. it's total the governors know that. the authority of the president of the united states, having to do with the subject we are talking about is total >> that's the president at the briefing yesterday talking about presidential authority in terms of reopening the economy even as governors of about ten states now work on plans to reopen parts of their economies next month contessa brewer is watching that for us today >> yeah. these governors think they have a better shot at getting it right if they're working together rather than going it alone. you have the governors of oregon, washington state and california in one coalition. and on the east coast, six states up and down that i-95 corridor many of these people live in one state and commute across state lines to work in another the working group says they will develop data-based protocols with representation from each governor's chief of staff, a public health official and economic official.

while they're cobbling together this coalition, president trump insists he has the sole authority on reopening >> we don't have a king. we have a president. that was a big decision. we ran away from having a king, and george washington was president. not king washington. so the president doesn't have tho total authority. the president is just wrong on that point >> this is a lot more than just political back and forth you need widespread testing before you can get the economy running again to prevent another outbreak cuomo says, look, i don't have these tests. certainly don't want another bidding war between states like you had for ppe. leadership from the federal government could solve that or cuomo suggests a coalition of states but opening the economy means opening schools, so that parents are not prevented from working by child care restraints you need mass transit to move those people back and forth.

these are local and state level responsibilities the states need the federal government they're running out of money they're lobbying for 5$500 billion in the next relieve bill so some level of coop rag is best f cooperation is best for the american people. >> are people thinking about opening up, including this group in the east and west, because they're betting in the next three weeks we'll get many more tests from abbott which allows us in detroit where it's working terrifically to figure out who has it and who doesn't i'm told illinois has thousands of machines, nobody is really using them it's disorganized. they can contest that. are people saying, you know what we'll have so much testing, so much contact tracing, so many antivirals, we have to be ready? or, you know what? good luck, everybody if it's the latter, that's a little difficult >> jim, no one is saying that.

no one and the reason why is because they say there is no way to know we have no idea whether this is a plateau that's sustainable it's happening now because the governor says because of social distancing what happens when you start putting people gradually back into a workplace what happens if you decide to reopen schools and the children are largely asymptomatic but taking coronavirus back home to their parents? these are big, complicated issues there can't be one simple solution to a complex problem like reopening the economy it's going to take a lot of high level detailed work to get this done the way they're tackling it, by bringing in someone who can tackle public health, someone who can tackle the economic part of it, and someone who can tackle the government part, it's their way of trying to figure out how do we come up with data-based protocols >> all right that makes sense to me got to have something.

david? >> contessa, thank you the contessa brewer reporting on those various responses. on that subject, jamie dimon on the earnings call talking about when we get back to it and saying the consequences, of course, of reopening the economy, it's beyond that, it's mental health. things like domestic abuse, so many reasons to try to get back. hopefully he says sooner rather than later, but he says it won't be may, maybe june, july, august we'll have more on jpm, on wells fargo's earnings, j&j and the overall markets as we appear to have a higher open in store when we come back because they're here.

working day in, day out. at&t is here. providing support with advanced services for first responders. and connected temporary hospitals, mobile testing sites and emergency management centers. because until their job is done, it is essential that we all have their backs. it's what we've always done. it's what we'll always do. there are times when our need to connect really matters. to keep customers and employees in the know. to keep business moving. comcast business is prepared for times like these. powered by the nation's largest gig-speed network. to help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. and a team of experts - here for you 24/7. we've always believed in the power of working together.

that's why, when every connection counts... you can count on us. welcome back to "squawk on the street." time for a mad dash. jim, want to talk a little tesla. takes me back to the days when we would mention that automaker rather often >> we used to be next to each other. kind of didn't have to look at you in that beautiful house.

certainly miss downtown. credit suisse. they go from sell to hold. 415 goes to 580. near-term expect supply shortages. they even have rent issues long-term, they're so much better doesn't it feel like the old days a guy who missed the move, right? had a sell on it but he's hoping to sneak it in doesn't know that we see that we have a show, and we can point it out that he's 415, going to 580. credit suisse using this moment, the fog of war, to go from sell to hold. there you go >> yeah. for a stock that obviously is still up 55% this year >> yep >> that's right. 2020 tesla shares still up over 55%, jim >> david, i just think that -- remember, they don't have to advertise. people love them the other guys are so hobbled. that ford quarter yesterday was

miserable. the tesla balance sheet is better than the ford balance sheet. i don't know >> yeah. >> it is it's bizarre it's a little super-man like >> yeah. yeah >> i don't know. kind of a strange time >> even as -- jpm last night saying global auto sales last two months is already worse than the financial crisis, and obviously we're not done yet we do want to get to steve liesman this morning good morning, steve. >> good morning, carl. the g7 just out with a communique in which they support an extraordinary widespread debt forgiveness for emerging nations and the poorest countries out there. certain criteria have to be met, but i've covered the debt restructuring of the cosoviet union, greece, never anything like this. the g7 supporting widespread debt forgiveness

this will be of interest to emerging market bond holders and others we'll see how this works and there are certain criteria involved but the g7 stepping up and actually acting with quite a good accord here given how they operated together before this virus. carl >> all right, steve. fascinating. jim, you look at g7, looking at nations, lenders, landlords looking at individual renters, borrowers, the national league of cities has a survey that 2,000 cities are look at budget shortfalls this year and planning cuts in advance of that >> the debate for the next phase of lending from congress is something that speaker pelosi talked about on our show friday, what do we do about these hospitals? at least municipalities, you can issue short-term paper but i believe there's a gigantic void where a lot of companies, a

lot of hospitals are getting hurt a lot of hospitals rely on kindness and charity wow. no elective procedures j&j, the one line you didn't like is the elective people can't get stuff done that they want. >> no by the way, that's the profit source for many of these hospitals. but also many of these hospitals, where they are, are typically amongst the largest employers in their communities >> yes >> that's something else that is very important here. we're not just talking about their importance from a public health perspective but they employ a lot of people it is a key here to restarting and part of the overall economy is getting them back to where they were in new york and the tri-state region these hospitals are overrun right now or many of them are. in many parts of the country, we're waiting for something that didn't come, and they stopped

taking people who need chemo, people having heart issues that perhaps pushed off a procedure of some kind so, there are so many ramifications for the system not being fully functioning at this point. >> yeah. i know abbott labs, talking about heart issues they can put off. who would ever think you could put off heart issues one that i think we have to start watching is dollar general. just a gauge of our country. this is on fire stock. you're about to get some money from the government. people do not go -- the restoration hardware is doing quite well, but dollar general, 22 times earnings, may be the best retailer other than costco, walmart and amazon better than target watch dollar general this week when the checks come that's where people go bezos, very good manager not going to dollar tree as

much dollar tree has nosome execution issues >> speaking of the checks, mnuchin did say yesterday 80 million americans are expected to get them as soon as tomorrow via direct deposit it's those who don't have direct deposit will be tougher to get paper money to that's a good start. >> i think that's a great start. there's something i'm positive about. i think people feel a little bit better, they have something coming in. a lot of people feel like, you know what? i don't have enough coming in. my business is down a lot. small business is down horribly. you mentioned people not pay -- not paying rent. when i look at the reits, i keep thinking, all right, come on, what's the truth how many customers -- how many people are not paying rent how many of your tenants are saying, you know what? go ahead, make my day. try to get rid of me that's an important figure we need to have the reits have skated so far

>> yeah. jeff blough was talking to andrew this morning. he did give insight into how many people they are or how many retailers they are getting paid by the numbers, as you might expect, are fairly small [ bell rings ] >> dollar general opens up 5 that's great look at this people hate it a lot of people at home cannot stand that the stock market is doing what it's doing, but there's -- why don't people understand that the stock market itself can be divorced from the u.s. economy the economy they're involved in is, again, we are not trading nail salons. we are to the trading rug stores or small jewelry stocks. we're trading companies that are the largest companies on earth and that are pretty well capitalized. the ones that are not drew down from the jpmorgans of the world.

forget the irony it is what it is our companies are strong forget the irony of wells fargo not doing horribly they're not. >> or they're going to the capital markets, jim even exxonmobil borrowing for up to ten years >> did you see what -- >> 9.5 billion >> did you see how little you get if you buy their -- 30-year, 3.4? happy days are here again for exxon. three years, 1.5 who buys that >> i don't -- in this environment where rates are low, you can't get return, i guess the spread is larger than it's been in a long time. the actual number to your point is extraordinarily small that's important for exxonmobil and clearly some investors willing to step up for those yields

even though they don't seem like much >> do you think people -- there's not going to be electric engines taking over by that point, 30 years from now i know look, when you talk to the oil guys, they say -- they don't say you're an idiot, they leave that out. but they say look, it's a combustion engine. how do they know the people who buy the 30-year piece of paper, that's a risky piece of paper given how you can take out 9.5 million dollbarrels a day and o doesn't go up? >> yeah. 3.452 on 30-year paper >> when i started at goldman, there was a piece of paper 14% i could not get a sole to buy it because it was backed by the full faith and credit of some country that had turmoil, post-jimmy carter. there you go >> right right. by the way, to your other point,

disney takes out a $5 billion revolver 340-day revolver >> saw that shanghai was open. >> yeah. >> i'm not afraid. i walk around with gloves and masks, why should i be afraid. that's real, right didn't we always do that are you guys n95 what kind of model are you carrying over there? >> i don't have enough masks i don't have any >> if i had a mask -- >> the only one i have is the one you gave me months ago >> yeah. the same here. >> i wore this thing six days straight i don't have a machine that makes it clean i'm saying, there's two worlds here the world where we come in and we have our gloves and masks, then the world where there's the screen that's all green. they don't have anything to do with each other. that's okay. that's okay. >> does that -- does that stick? at some point does the market

reflect an economy that has been severely hit and may not be as quick to come back as the market seems to think >> one of the best articles i've seen is -- you look at the "new york times." they have this piece about what people are doing and not doing if you're netflix, you're thinking, wow, this is the greatest economy in the world. if you're a place that is involved with taking people from one place to another, it's not so great i notice that the cruise ships are up people are saying that the cruise ships, the numbers are better for next year terrific that's a lot of optimism, right? pretty good. >> at 2,800, given a 17.5 multiple you're talking $160 in s&p earnings for the year. is that -- does this seem like a level you would want to chase -- i know you were saying earlier this is a return to single stocks that's not very much of a

discount on earnings for the year >> i read david kostin's piece he's sticking by his 3,000 i said that's kind of crazy. then i said, i don't know, we're at 2,800 it's not so crazy. i think that we're dealing with the best of the best today j&j is the number one drug company. jpmorgan is the number one bank. they're really good. and i just think that they make create a false sense of security >> yeah. guys, we were talking as well about retail jim was mentioning it. sorry, carl. this question of who will pay rent and the reits we got a little bit of color from jeff blough, the large real estate investment trust that they have, the hudson yards development on the far west side of manhattan with a lot of commercial tenants and an enormous mall and their time warner center uptown gives you a further sense when

he's talking about retail tenants. >> the soft spot has been the retail sector. you know, whether it's our hudson yards, time warner center, or the malls throughout the country, all those assets have really suffered and our tenants are suffering. i think a lot of them are waiting for the government relief programs to kick in hopefully that will help but, we collected across our portfolio about 35% of the rent. i heard the mall portfolios are down to roughly 20%. so it really depends on who your tenants are, how strong they are, their capability to pay most importantly how long this goes on. >> there you go. how long this goes on, guys. that's the key that was april so what's may going to look like >> i thought that was the most

important interview of the morning. i listened to that thinking people are saying, hey, i'm not paying then there's a chain where you look at -- david, you follow wework aren't they just a gigantic sucking hole in the real estate market >> yes, it is. and listen, when it comes to commercial and what's going to happen posited this theory last week, people working from home, they won't need as much space, but in the work space, you will have a demand for spacing. wework has people working closely together in those spaces they lease from so many of the big owners as well they don't own a lot of their space. it's a question in some of the markets like new york or london and others where wework is a

large tenant, what's going to happen given these new constraints, it would seem, on, well, when people do come back to work they'll want more space. that's not necessarily conducive to it, not to mention the small and medium-sized businesses that use wework that won't be able to rent space >> more space, less money. we know not a lot of business formation. i have a guy saying, listen, you know how many people bought apartments in order to rent them on airbnb? there's a shadow economy that developmeed that could crumple here a lot of these places are small companies, so you won't feel their pain >> carl, we mentioned property -- simon properties, when you hear from jeff, they're still up today they are still in the deal to

acquire taubman. on the subject of wework, carl, softbank yesterday, a lot of coverage of it today, i think the japanese market may have been closed yesterday. a lot of coverage of the losses taken at the division fund wework one of their keys, but not the only one where they are taking significant writedowns. >> robert frank had a nice story on that this morning number one tenant in new york city, half a billion in rent every year jpmorgan, the number two new york tenant. jim, i wanted to ask you about three names. >> yeah. >> amazon, all-time high today, netflix, near a high, roku sees q1 streaming hours up 49 what do you do with these names in >> amazon is the largest position for my travel trust why? they keep going higher they hired an additional 75,000

employees. netflix, the crowning moment of the show -- the president's press conference was when he was asked about "tiger king. that was an out of body moment netflix doing incredibly well. it is a bit of the absurd. mr. president what do you think about "tiger king. but -- sorry for real >> i know. >> come on but i think netflix is a great stock. people want to stay home and activation/blizzard, call of duty this is what we devolved to, a late-stage capitalist country. amazon, you can get a job walking by amazon. how about the amazon guys that ring your bell and they run away quickly you can't find them. it's like mischief night i still keep their boxes i still keep their boxes outside for the day. i'm careful.

>> you do? i kept a box outside for a day amazon box outside for a day i'm not sure why, but i did. it's not clear this thing can live on surfaces that long or is transmitted that way might as well be cautious. >> that's how much we know about it i feel like we're really knowing a lot about covid. >> i know. that's the problem the lack of true facts that we can all rely upon. carl, you have girls, but my older one on the subject of video games, the hours, because i get this report from microsoft, it was staggering truly staggering >> impressive. >> "call of duty." >> maybe a book. maybe like even a -- >> i try, man. i'm trying i'm pushing those books. some really good books back there. >> the president talked about hemingway, said the captain was like hemingway maybe start with hemingway >> for whom the bell tolls >> it's because of some of those

names that the nasdaq 100 is down only 2% for the year. just astounding the impact of names like microsoft and amazon. we do want to get to wilfred frost this morning who has some highlights from jpm's conference call >> so the key focus throughout the morning has been provisions for credit losses. there was an extra 6.8 billion for the quarter. that splits roughly two-thirds from the consumer, mainly credit cards, one-third corporate which was oil, gas, real estate and retail how big is that 6.8 billion number it's billed in one single quarter. bigger than for an entire year since 2010 and it increase their total reserve build, built up many years by 40% the total of 25 billion. they reserved against roughly 2.3% against their entire trillion dollar or so loan book. the cfo said on the call they were factoring some of the potential benefits from various government bailout programs and

an improving economy in the second half of the year. so it's still not a worst-worst casary joe >> after we closed the books for our quarter our economists upped their outlook. if that scenario were to hold, we would be building in the second quarter and builds could be higher in aggregate over the next several quarters relative to what we took in the first quarter. a primary unknown is the duration of the crisis which will directly impact losses across our portfolio >> jamie dimon saying the economy will hopefully get back sooner rather than later, but it won't be may, it will be june, july, august what about the positives in the earnings trading was strong less expected, management saw an aum increase the stock is up a couple percent this morning

interestingly it's up 29% from its 23rd of march low. it's down 29% year to date, which also makes its 2020 high so right bang in the middle there of the recent sort of three, four-month ranges >> i think that march 23rd low, one thing carl asked me about in the show, how do you feel about the retest, that march 23rd low was absolutely a crash it was a crash like i have not seen since '87 prices, we lost control of prices we didn't know where the market was. we thought that there were stocks like -- i looked at starbucks. it was 56. then 52. then 54. that -- jpmorgan was part of that morass, you didn't know where the stock was. that was very much like monday and tuesday of the crash i think one of the difficulties of thinking we will retrace is that we didn't know even where stocks were. that's how broken the market was that day i look at jpmorgan jpmorgan's stock is down huge.

the idea it's stabilizing at 100. wilf, you have to admit, it's nowhere near where the thing was. it has taken a big hit >> right it's down 30% still year-to-date, but as you rightly say, right on that 23rd of march peak of panic was because the market was trying to guess what percentage of the economy was going to go bust which becomes a guessing game. so you see outsized moves. that comes out in the earnings call jamie dimon said towards the end of the call that you're foolish to try to model these things on one level we have never dealt with an economic hit as dramatic as this and we have never dealt with government programs like the ppp lending program. so at this stage he was clear we'll have more provisions in q2 you're trying to gauge how many companies will go bust and that relies on whether these government programs work or not,

how long they have to run on for. they're trying to give all the numbers they can, but it's not the worst case scenario yet. >> wilf, how about this theory, companies where you can work at home, they're winners, they will do well. companies with great balance sheets, winners. everybody else, every man for himself. >> that's very clear he said it will be company by company and sector by sector in terms of where these credit losses come out. the one thing i would go back to, total prol visions, not just from this quarter, built up against the entire loan book is just over 2% that's high relative to history, but in these crazy economic times, do you think that's as bad as it will get even though jpmorgan always has great quality of customers, fortress balance sheet? 2.3% of their entire loan book doesn't feel like it's a worst case scenario yet. jamie dimon saying on the call, we won't open in may it will be sometime over the summer has the market priced that in yet or is the market expecting a

broad reopening sooner than they're expecting. huge swing factors still to come >> yeah. wilf, they also gave a number on the dollar amount of checks that are out the door on that ppp loan program that you mentioned. >> yeah. in the slides this morning it was 8 billion. on the call they updated it to 9.3 billion. snow shows the scale and pace of that, 36 billion approved, 9 billion is out the door. the rest of that clearly coming. over 300,000 applications they received, jpmorgan, alone. this comes back to the point if and when we see all of the companies get the money they have wanted, i think we'll look past the imperfections of the rollout and be able to commend the scale of this program which just vastly, vastly goes beyond anything the small business administration has had to do in the past that was the tone of what jamie

dimon was saying on the call he commended the sba and secretary mnuchin for getting to this point that's no consolation for the small businesses that applied and not got the money yet. that said, the numbers out of the door are still significant relative to history. >> i totally agree it is amazing. carl, i'll tell you -- people want to go to work you get the sense that a lot of people around the country are ready. i think a lot of stores are ready. but will people have that extra dollar will they feel -- that's why i think the last program, putting some money in the pocket is good, but i do think we'll run out of customers rather quickly unless we can get more testing testing is the key then an antiviral is important contact tracing. we can't unleash people and say the pizza parlor, we're ready. >> i know. >> we have a pizza parlor. >> the german health minister

told wilf yesterday, antibody tests maybe in two to four weeks. that would be a game changer in terms of making people comfortable enough to get out. guys, let's get to santelli on what's obviously a busy start to this tuesday hey, rick. >> hi, carl. you know, if you look at a one week of tens we have hunkered down all i can think of is casey and the sunshine band with you ten-years are stuck in the 70s high 70s, good resistance. low 70s, good support. my expectation is we'll stend some time here curve at 50 basis points it's all about high yield. today the fed will unveil and begin their commercial paper program. but many eyes are still focused on what's going on in the less than investment grade space. if you look at the etf, hyg grade for one week, do you think theed if decided which they would buy high yield yes. if you go to barclays high yield

and look at year-to-date, you can see that before that occurred, we were hovering in the 1200 basis point camp. 1200 over treasuries they lopped off almost 400 basis points and if you look at what's going on with the investment side of the equation, on on barclay's investment grade, that was almost 400 basis points over treasuries, and they almost cut that in half the moral of the story is, is that if you were one of those unlucky firms, like carnival, that issued their paper days before the federal reserve decided they were going to jump into the deep end of the etf high-yield pool, well in a way they were penalized, because if you buy everything the fed buys, as many investors have, there's been a big wave of you see on the charts of the spreads coming down, but unfortunately, those companies that maybe did the right thing a little bit early before the fed decided in a potentially questionable way to get involved in this particular asset class, well, of course,

the investors did well but the issuers, well, they could have saved probably tens of millions on servicing their debt. carl, back to you. >> yes, i'll take it, rick it's a good point, of course the fed is coming in as well this would have helped the fall be angels that were investment grade and noening longer are. we've got a lot more coming at you on "squawk on the street," including continuing to watch the overall market with the s&p up 2.5% this morning, and down only 12.5% for 2020. we're back after this. have you heard?

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what a troll. the world premiere is now in your home. breaking news, former president obama is expected to endorse his former vice president joe biden in a video to be released later on this morning. dow is up 75, nasdaq on track for its longest win streak since december later on this morning the ceo of ileriljo us as well. we're back in a minute

let's get to jim in "stop

trading. >> a company i like square a piece deteriorating spending, valuations rebound to neutral. it encapsulates what's going on the stock is going up and but they're worried about the spend for square it's confusing people. how could square be up two bucks today, ubs downgrades it people expect there's so much money coming into the system from treasury, from the fed that things will be better. it's just a matter of when, and not if and i think that's kind of where i share, like the if is off the table. the when is when i am concerned about. i want to do too soon, don't want to do too late. those understand that is the issue. haven't talked to anybody whether in government or business it's like don't want to be too late, don't want to be too soon. that's what everyone is worried about. if you think that's not what people are worried about, you haven't made a single call and you're sitting at home in your jammies. that's the jammies

maybe you got the dr. denton feet or the boxers your gap boxers. >> not just for futures traders anymore. >> i mistakenly have to call everybody. glaxosmithkline with sanofi, two companies doing vaccines, they're getting together dr. jon cohen, a lot of the problems are with the testing companies, the labs. bioreference turning around a lot of the tests we have to have more testing those who don't think we have more testing there's this guy fauci, there all the time you might know him as the point guard that got regis far when he was in high school i know him as a distinguished doctor all i'm doing is parroting what he says and if that's wrong, well you know, i don't know. who am i supposed to talk -- i don't know who else to trust the guy seems like he's a good guy. he's saying the stuff i'm saying >> jim, does the ndx deserve to be almost flat for the year? >> i don't think so. but there are companies in the

ndx that are crushing it, and it's like if you look at amazon, i never wanted amazon to be 7% on my charitable trust but i don't want to sell amazon. it's fantastic costco is great. microsoft, this is the big triumphing over the little guy and if you don't mind making money in the market off that, that's what's going on the companies that dominate in the nasdaq are just, they're killing companies. they're just crushing it so yeah, there's just an imbalance. there's just some very big companies doing very, very well and a lot of other companies that are not and they don't matter. >> we keep coming back to this winner-take-all dynamic. >> it really is, carl. it's winner-take-all, loser-take-none. sorry. >> jim, we'll see you tonight. >> yep >> it's going to be an important mow "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time if you're just joining us, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and sara eisen coming to you live from various locations.

quite a nice bounce here in the making, early still on this tuesday, but the dow up almost 600. you got the triple qs above the 50-day moving average for the first time since late february, sara for a moment the vix under 50 for the first time in several months we put a win on the nasdaq today, that's the longest win streak since december. >> obviously the positives continue to be focused on by the markets over the negatives and jim was just talking about the g gsk/is aanotherie collaboration and china data a lot better han feared and the apple iphone shipments reported by the chinese government rebounded the international monetary fund the imf put out its first official economic outlook since the coronavirus really started to spread around the world and it's not pretty.

they're expecting the world economy to shrink 3% this year, for the worst contraction since the great depression they're calling it the great lockdown and obviously those numbers could go even lower if the shutdowns continue, or if we get a second wave of infections. just some other highlights from that report, as far as the growth outlook, they see positive growth for the year for both china and india, which is on the silver lining sort of things, but as far as the u.s. economy, they expect that it will shrink 5.9% this year eurozone expected to shrink 7.5% this year and china seen growing 1.2% they only see a partial recovery for 20 21 and kristalina george yes va the manager of the fund will join us tomorrow. this is the imf spring meetings week, hard to believe, where they gather the world's finance ministers and central bankers every year to talk about the

economic outlook, it's happening virtually. there's a great need for collaboration even i'm not sure it's happening in the world or in the united states, where the governors are going one way, the mayors the other and the federal government is going the other as we all try to tackle the question of the moment which is when and how to reopen the u.s. economy. >> yes, your point's a good one, seeing the city of new york developed its own covid test, for example, sara and now a plant i believe in indiana that's going to be manufacturing those tests as we try still to battle sort of with this shortage of testing overall. sara, this morning we also got earnings, as you well know from wells fargo and jpmorgan wells fargo's conference call just begun, still relatively new ceo charlie scharf in charge jpmorgan added 6.8 billion but

the question is, will there be more after that? is that going to be sufficient to deal with the deterioration and credit both corporate and personal balance sheets or is it simply a downpayment on a lot more pain to come? >> right, and what kind of pain is expected? obviously we've got those numbers and that's a good way to characterize it. also "the fairly severe recession planning" jamie diamond's quote is how long it lasts and whether there's a second wave. bank of america did a fund manager showing extrem pessimism and the biggest factors managers are worried about is whether we get a second wave of infection. we don't know that, don't know if there are drugs in place to prevent people from going to the hospitals, trying to follow the medical data as much as the economic and financial data. one thing getting a lot of attention in the trader notes this morning and tweeted by scott gottlieb, former fda commissioner, the study out of

new york presbyterian hospital where they tested every woman who got admitted to the hospital to give birth, every pregnant woman, 200 of them in the last few weeks and of those, they found a surprising number of patients tested positive for covid-19, 33 patients. 29 out of those 33 patients that tested positive of pregnant women were asymptomatic, and that's the sort of thing that goes to the question of how many people actually have it but don't know, which is actually a reason for optimism, because it makes that hospitalization mortality and icu rate go down sharply as a result of the total people infected. so those are the other sort of questions and potential points of optimism traders are focused on today >> not to mention, sarais sarae idea of herd immunity. the percentages would have to be higher than those you cited but enough people are exposed to it, then you get to a very different

point and so that goes to again the lack of testing right now, and the antibody tests that many are waiting for to determine how many people really have been exposed to this virus and already dealt with it, asymptomatically perhaps is a key. of course the downside is so many people who may have it and don't know may be spreading it to other people. >> also wanted to run this by you, david we talked to leon black yesterday of apollo global and you know he doesn't speak out too much i don't think he ever does broadcast interviews >> no. >> wanted to get a sense of how, he obviously is committing a large amount of money along with aeromark the food company to deliver care packages to new york city health workers remember during the great recession, it was groups like apollo that just loaded up on distressed debt and ultimately it came out very profitable on the other end. we talked about this idea of private equity and his firm in particular lending to companies

that really need the money right now. listen to this >> we're looking at leisure. we're looking at entertainment, you know, but we're looking at, you know, areas in insurance we're looking at companies that we followed, you know, basically we have the largest alternative credit platform in the world, and we've been one of the greatest i think providers of return in the private equity business, and that covers you know, 20 different industries. >> was curious, david, what you were hearing about private equity loaning, perhaps where banks wouldn't make some riskier loans as we wait for the bank conference calls on that issue as well. this idea of bridge loans to risky companies like the cruise lines or hotels or anyone else caught in this storm

>> i think, listen, they can be an important source of liquidity for those companies but sara, the story i'm more focused on and trying to understand better is that pe right now has been notably left out of many of the aid packages made available, either through the c.a.r.e.s. act or from the main street lending program that is going to go into effect from the fed, with treasury's help pe is notably absent in terms of leverage ratio test that could apply to many of their companies, the employee tests that actually treats them as affiliates so even though they may have companies that have fewer than 500 employees, they are considered one employer, and so i think that's a key question in my mind right now, sara i wondered why leon black, who never, ever goes on television,

would come on, and i've got to believe that you're going to start to see, and i'm going to try to get him, i'm sure you are now, too, more of these people come on, because there's something going on here on private equity in terms of at least what mnuchin was willing to do with pelosi and schumer, to get those bills passed. they're going to be asked to reequitize some of their companies as opposed to being able to rely on the large jsse of the fed and treasury to bail out some of the companies they have so let's keep an eye on that >> of course there's an outrage and i think the counter argument which we got a little bit of that flavor from black is, you know, this is not a moral hazard situation. this is a government issued shutdown of the economy, where businesses large and small are suffering, because no revenue is coming in, and no business is taking place so unlike the financial crisis, nobody's being punished for bad -- nobody's being rewarded for bad behavior >> no. >> that's another debate we'll

continue to have as the pe firms perhaps start to line up or a bloomberg report today that hedge funds are looking to take advantage of something, some of the lending programs as well >> yes, listen, you know -- >> all right, we're going to -- >> the thing politicians don't want to see is politicians making a boatload more money maybe they can give it up from their promote, maybe they can r r reequitize some. lps in existing funds that haven't been used may not like that it's an interesting question to watch but none of the politicians want to see private equity coming out of this looking better i guess is what they're concerned about. >> let's talk about all of this, including this rebound we're seeing in the market with the s&p up 2.6%. "new york times" pulitzer prize winning columnist jim stewart joins us now >> hi, sara. >> give us a read on how you're feeling. hi, good to have you here.

you've been particularly worried i think about, we had you last when it was a more volatile period in the markets and the infection rate was still going up how are you feeling about the financial markets and the outlook, now that we have started to see some signs that that infection curve is peaking? >> well, i'm feeling a lot better, both as just as a person about it and as an investor. i mean clearly since i was last on here, which when things were maybe not as their darkest, but was pretty close to that, a lot of uncertainty has been removed and the worst case scenarios do not seem to be materializing i was amazed in some of the turmoil of march the kinds of emails i was getting from some very smart people who were sketching out those apocalyptic scenarios of not only medical catastrophe but a financial meltdown as well

i think we're seeing significant progress on both fronts, medically and with the way the virus is unfolding, which again i think is worth bearing in mind that it is a virus it is going to respond to what we know about the science of it and secondly on the financial front, i think the fed especially mnuchin, i don't know many persons but i think he deserves a lot of credit here. they've done a tremendous job of pouring money into the system of stepping up. a lot of people are saying there's nothing you can do in a situation like this but yes there is i'll mention two things, they deserve a lot of credit for. one was provide liquidity to municipal bond markets, stabilizing the fed buying this bond so many investors fixed income portion, up the state, couldn't pay, cities couldn't pay that would have been a disaster, and secondly they back stopped

the market funds and learned what happened in a financial crisis that's taken a lot of uncertainty out which is really what has put a lot of momentum behind the market. >> jim, i guess the question from here is, how long does it take to reopen the economy who even has the authority to do that, and how does that look are people going to really be going back to the office are they going to be going out to restaurants are there going to be restaurants? the questions are endless when it comes to that, and it feels like, you know, the market appears to be expecting a third, fourth quarter type rebound. i don't think the v-shaped recovery is baked in, but the shape and the feel and the speed seems very uncertain how are you thinking about it? >> the market is looking pretty optimistic here, and you know, a little formula i use which is not really trying to predict where the market goes, it's where it's been, and it's up about 25% from that low, which

in my book means you might want to think about rebalancing a little bit, which at this point you know if you've been following, if you've been doing what you should be doing means you should be thinking about selling a little bit, just to get those allocations in line, but putting that aside, i have been talking to some ceos this week about this reopening question, and everybody tells me that it's all about testing, testing, testing, and getting a system in place maybe with the help of the tracking, being talked about out of silicon valley so coming up with a system which in which we can identify the people who are infected and who are a threat and to remain quarantined than those who have the antibodies who are kind of going to be the superheroes of this, they can go anywhere and the people who are not infected have not been infected but need periodic testing, but the technology is moving here. i think it's looking good. i fact checked this.

i heard abbott labs has this fantastic test where you get an instant read-out you can literally have guards at office buildings and shopping malls zapping you as you walk in, and they will know, do you have the virus or not, and you know, that's kind of science fiction almost, but that's not completely out of the question i think we are going to be able to marshall the technological resources back short of having a vaccine, which people say could be about a year away >> that's interesting, jim there are some who argue that pricing the market back to 2,800, about where we are right now was almost an easy call in that once you saw the mitigation measures put into place, you knew that the curve would eventually flatten out we thought it might be april, and it turns out that's kind of what's happening now >> right >> but this second chapter of finding this testing tracing at scale depends on a much broader

range of outcomes, a broader range of policymakers. do you think the hard part starts now in terms of investing? >> yes everybody says after a bump the easy money was made. let me say, that was not easy money. if you look back to a month ago, stepping up and putting in money in the market took a lot of conviction and a certain amount of optimism and courage. i wouldn't call it easy money. i agree. i think a optimism has been priced in at this point and i don't think we're going to see another 25% move in the speed that we just saw this one, i'd be a little bit worried if we did. it would seem irrational to me there's a lot of uncertainty out there. i think we have a few things here to watch. one is china china may have substantially undercounted the number of people infected and who died they're putting that aside they are unlocking, they are

going back to work they are, you know, pretty much reopening that society it's middle of april, first case in wuhan that we know about was december 31st. that's a finite period of time, and that's i think that's encouraging that you can get the numbers down, you can reopen i don't know that we can get those numbers down, which is why technology here is going to have to play a bigger role but i think the technology is there. it's getting developed it's going to be rolled out. it's going to mean a lot of money for some of the companies that are able to participate in this it's a massive effort, but i think there is cause for optimism that in, you know, the may, june, july, some summer period, a lot is going to be back people say are going to be restaurants again? yes, there are going to be restaurants again. the virus is going to be brought to heel at some point, and it's not going to be tomorrow, but

they are going to come back someday. >> jim, the question is how do you invest around what could change permanently as a result of this virus. i'm looking at amazon. the stock is up 22% so far this year it's actually hitting new highs and continues to be very resilient. the staples have done better technology is almost flat for the year where do you want to be on the other side of this >> when we were talking the last time, i like to look at one of the things hit the worst that are going to come back retail would make me nervous i don't know we're ever going to see the retail landscape come back, which is why i think amazon is doing so well. it's not traditional retail. the transportation which i mentioned before, it's going to come back. we are going to have goods moving railroads are going to move, the trucks, the airlines are going to come back eventually we know that's going to come back entertainment is going to come

back it's losing revenues now that it will never make up it will come back. auto companies, there will be pent up demand they're not selling cars now but people need a certain number of cars are obsolete every single year and have to be replaced and it will push some sales to the future number one i like to look at companies that in fact we know are eventually going to be out on the other side and see how far they have beaten down. secondly why guess look at some of the dividend yields on solid companies. john john & johnson is a big mover today for good reason the dividend is somewhere well above 2% compare that to what you can make in the treasury market. don't be greedy. there are some fabulous, procter & gamble there are great companies out there that we know they're doing well now and going to continue to do well they have really good dividend

yields you can either go the riskier route or the ones that haven't been beaten down that much, but are still paying out very solid dividend payments. >> it's interesting that j&j raised its dividend when so many other companies are cutting back find those jim, we appreciate that. >> i don't think there's any danger in terms of the big pharmaceuticals and consumer staple companies >> jim stewart of the "new york times. when we come back the ceo of unilever will talk about the coronavirus impact on their business, supply chains and more as the bounce continues to hold here and the nasdaq100 within stone's throw of being flat for 2020 we're back in a minute lan with a gives us confidence. yeah, they help us with achievable steps along the way... ...so we can spend a bit now, knowing we're prepared for the future. surprise! we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. oooh, well...

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welcome back today we look at the banks financial earnings season kicking off in our etf spotlight. the group as a whole is higher wilfred frost has more details >> the bank is up a couple of percent after earnings from jpmorgan and wells fargo were not worse than feared and while that's encouraging, jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon made clear they like everyone else are uncertain of the outlook from here. >> this is such a dramatic change of events there are no models that have done gdp down 40%, unemployment

growing this rapidly and that's one part there are also no models ever dealt with a government which is doing a ppp program which might be $350 billion, might be $550 billion. unemployment where it looks like 30%, 40% unemployment, higher income than before they went on unemployment so what does that mean for credit cards, something like that, or that the government's just going to make direct payment for people so this is all in the works right now. the company's in very good shape. we can serve our clients and we'll give you more detail on this but it's happening as we speak. and i think people we're making too much of a mistake trying to model it when we get to the end of the second quarter we'll know exactly what happened in the second quarter >> dimon addressed potential reopening of the economy he said "helpful loy it will be sooner rather than later, but it won't be may we're talking about june, july, august, something like that.

if we look at the xlf year-to-date roughly half way between the highs and lows of 2020, up 1.7% still sara wells fargo and jpmorgan both turned negative over the course of the call. comments from charlie scharf echoed similar tones to jamie dimon, i.e. potential bad loans coming forward but perhaps haven't peaked and will continue to have to take provisions in the quarters ahead >> wilf, on that note, i was looking as well at a quick transcription of some of scharf's comments, they've begun as you know around the top of the hour they had their commercial clients draw-down about $80 billion from existing credits obviously, that's the revolvers that we hear so much about that corporate america's been taking down that's a pretty big number, utilizing $80 billion of their

loan commitments he also went on to say, i think, that atm transactions were down about 17% in march and credit card purchase volumes down 13% from the fourth quarter, and again, like jamie dimon reiterating, we're just in a world right now that we haven't seen before. >> exactly right, david, and his comments in terms of that of that unpredictability of where we are, he says that we don't know how quickly the economy will recover when these orders are lifted but we also don't know the impact of this government response, i.e., the scale of it overall. i want to bring about one point, david, in terms of these loan loss provisions and whether they're going to get worse from here if we look at the total amount of reserves against the total amount of loans for each of the banks, jpmorgan's went up 90 basis points this quarter, now 2.3% of the total loans provided against. wells fargo went up ten basis points to 1.2%, but either way,

when we think of the scale of what the economy is facing, if you're talking only 1% or 2% as provided against so far, no matter how good the quality of the loans is made in the first place, it does feel like there's some worse potential to come, if things don't reopen quickly, and these government programs don't work perfectly >> all right, wilfred, see you later, and we've got an important interview on this topic, we'll talk to wells fargo's cfo john shrewsberry wells fargo and othe nate. l cts ough still in the green. stay with us

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." time now for an update on the covid-19 virus and for that we go to rahel solomon. >> hi, david so new york governor cuomo says his state is succeeding in slowing the pandemic and saving lives. he blasted president trump for claiming sole power to reopen the economy. >> we don't have a king. we have a president, and that was a big decision we ran away from having a king and george washington was president, not king washington so the president doesn't have total authority. it's very clear states have

power by the tenth amendment, and the president is just wrong on that point airlines around the world will lose $314 billion this year due to coronavirus, according to the industry's trade group that loss estimate is up 25% in three weeks. and personal computer shipments sank more than 12% in the first quarter, according to gartner research firm. demand jumped due to the surge of remote work and school use and the numbers hurt by production and logistical challenges as always for more coronavirus coverage head to our website cnbc.com carl, i'll send it back to you >> rahel, thank you very much. when we come back, the ceo of unilever, we'll talk to him about supply chains and the impact of the virus on consumer products as we see if this bounce holds we're back in a moment

welcome back companies large and small are pitching in to fight these

pandemic in this country and one company that is donating supplies and offering cash flows to supplier is global consumer giant unilever ceo alan jope is here. nice to have you here. could you outline the measures unilever is taking to fight this crisis >> good morning, thanks for having me. of course this pandemic is causing a devastating global human and economic impact. we run a multistakeholder model in our business and trying to take a multistakeholder response to our first reaction has been to protect the lives and livelihoods of our people. we have about 150,000 people working directly for unilever. roughly half are office workers, 100% working from home for four weeks now. the other half of our front line operators in our factories and fields and what we said was we'd guarantee jobs, guarantee

livelihoods, incomes for at least three months that was the people side secondly, we thought on our business partners, we would use our balance sheet strength to unlock 500 million euros of working capital so that we could make prompt payment to our small suppliers, help keep that ecosystem alive and in business and maybe the third big thing was we decided to donate 100 million euros of product, basic food products, hygiene products like soaps, hand sanitizers, surface cleaners, to places that needed it, including front line health facilities. trying to take a multistake holder response to this dreadful situation. >> i wanted to pick up on the last point because we've seen a lot of companies in the u.s. and abroad turn factories that are idle say for car production into making ventilators or clothing companies, people aren't out shopping, making masks and other

ppe. for unilever, it's interesting that you're doing it, because so many of your products from soap to paper goods to food are in high demand. so how you have sort of managed that capacity across the factories? >> yes, thanks for asking. so we have stood up new facilities we built or we converted a factory in three days to produce hand sanitizers. we've now got 30 facilities producing sanitizers we're part of the formula one 1 racing consortium that's fast tracking the development of ventilators. we're using our 3-d printing capabilities to print parts for medical masks, and i've just been astonished that the ingenuity and responsiveness of our people unilever is not a bad place to be our portfolio is the type of basic products we need we have a conservative financial

picture so our balance sheet's a source of great strength but the most amazing thing is the ada adaptability and speed with which our people created new capabilities and new products to support this effort. >> alan, i just got the nielsen numbers for the last few weeks for household products these are numbers i haven't seen in covering these companies in this industry for a long time. soap liquid category in terms of dollar sales up 100% over the last two weeks versus the year before liquid cleaners up 80%, bleach up 63% people are rushing out to buy the stuff that you are making in mass are we going to run out of it? >> so let me make one very important point. coronavirus is not good news for unilever we're seeing shifts in demand for sure we're seeing a big reduction in out-of-home food consumption of ice cream and restaurant products, and yes we are seeing increases in demand in some of

the hygiene products, but the net effect is certainly not good news for us on a commercial basis. that being said, the view that you've got is a uniquely american view. only in the u.s. are we seeing this kind of dramatic pantry loading. i think the u.s. consumer has typically a bigger house and more appetite for credit card debt than elsewhere in the world, and the picture of what the responses to this crisis is very, very different in different parts of the world, and the u.s. is quite unique in the types of numbers that you are quoting. >> that's an interesting point i get the dynamic of pantry space, home size, access to credit, but i have to imagine that there's some universality in wanting to stock up why is that -- i mean is there no evidence of that around the world? >> you know, 60% of our sales

come from outside of western europe, north america where people are living with much less access to disposable income and even in western europe we saw a little bit of stocking up in the united kingdom but far, far less than continental europe. i think where we see a similar pattern are categories where there's genuinely increased consumption, so if you imagine people are definitely washing their hands more so we see stepped up consumption of hand washing products but not to get ridiculous, toilet paper is a fixed consumption rate so we haven't seen that and watching that type of market. but i'm very worried about the global south if italy or the united kingdom or the health care systems, even the united states of america get overloaded and overwhelmed, what's going to happen when this thing really takes hold in brazil, the townships of africa, the slums of india, or the

refugee camps around the middle east i think we're still in the foothills of seeing the true damage that this virus will wreck in the global south. >> that's why it's so key to build the manufacturing capacity to build a vaccine once we finally get one. i am curious, it sounds like unilever is thinking of the time when this pantry loading chapter that we're in does give way to just broad household financial weakness is that what you're trying to get across >> we're trying to anticipate what the new normal will look like, and there's definitely going to be some shifts that stay i think greater attention to hygiene. i was working and living in china at the time of sars, and that was a notable point of inflection for the consumption of digital media and purchasing online, and i think this is going to mark a step change in consumer's consumption of

digital media and online shopping, and yes, we are thinking about the value for money, bits of our portfolio, because there's no doubt the world's going into recessionary times and those value from the elements in your portfolio will play an especially important role in the next three years or so >> mr. job, it's david faber i'm curious. you haven't been in the job as ceo that long. you certainly had certain goals prior to the onset of this virus for the company, and including trying to get its growth rate up when it comes to things like that, and m&a, and so and so many of the other goals corporate wide, have they been put on hold? is that what you have to do in a period like this >> i think first of all, i'm very indebted to the women and men who actually run unilever. i do the privilege of sitting in this particular role we have suspended some of our change initiatives for sure.

the north star for unilever, being a company committed to responsible consumption, running a multistake holder model, trying to make sure more and more of our brands are meeting needs of society that go beyond just features and benefits that make a positive contribution back to communities or the environment, and in particular, commitments, for example, to move to greater use of recycled plastic, to source agricultural materials sustainably, none of that goes on hold. we're equally committed today as we ever were and i think coronavirus will herald a new era of responsible consumption people are going to wake up and say you know what? we can't carry on with the type of consumption that was happening before >> why why do you believe that? >> look at the dialogue around bill gates was warning about global pandemic for years, and

nobody paid attention, and now where are we we are already picking up similar messaging in our social listening around the great challenges of our times, which are climate change and inequality so everyone's known climate change is a problem for a long time, and equality, national inequality is a problem, has been growing as a problem for quite some time, and we are certainly picking up social media commentary in our listening that shows there's an increasing awareness that these problems need to now go more addressed than they have in the past, and addressing them by the way is not just the responsibility of government all these big problems require government, the private sector of business, and civil society, to collaborate nationally and internationally in order to tackle these big problems, and i think that's a growing sentiment

that coronavirus will be an accelerator for. >> it's interesting, because i was wondering if that esg pledge would actually stand the test of a recession, and i guess we should give credit to your predecessor, paul pullman, who was really out front on all of these issues, alan but finally, i did want to ask you, as the world's biggest soap company, if you think that our san taitation habits as consume will change in the long-term as a result of all of this? >> definitely. we're reviewing -- first of all, i'd also like to thank my predecessor, paul pullman, and all of his predecessors who have worked on putting unilever in a sustainable footing for over 100 years now. but we are definitely reconsidering how we think about personal and household hygiene, that's going to be an increased area of demand into the future we need to adjust our innovation

programs and marketing plans and our brand port yoel toe to reflect the realities around us. >> the other question i had is the shift in behavior for consumers going back to old school brands. it was thought for so many years in covering these consumer staples from p&g to campbell's soup to kraft, that some of the brands our parents used were dying and didn't resonate with the younger consumer, didn't speak to younger consumers it was sort of big food and big brands were old sochool and now people are going back to them during this crisis and i wonder if that's a phenomenon you're seeing and if you think that lasts as well and how you can take advantage of that situation to keep those consumers coming back >> one of the advantages of being an extremely globally diverse company is that we are quite experienced in c ri ses. having a big business in latin america, we're used to economic

crisis having a big business in middle east >> give me the banks >> and crises always drive people back to big brands. >> and then do they stay is the question >> our experience has been that brands are marks of trust and so whenever people are feeling anxious, whenever there's a need for security, we do see big brands, and by the way a lot said about these indie upstart brands we have a few we love ourselves but our big brands for the last five and ten years have been in good health and ordinarily in a crisis, big brands benefit this is a crisis unlike any other that we've seen, so i'm very hesitant to make any predictions much beyond the near-term. >> well, we hope you'll continue to keep us posted. it was good to have you here on

the show today alan jope, ceo of unilever >> my pleasure, thank you. >> thank you all right, we got a lot more "squawk on the street" for you by the way, take a look at the banks. they have turned around rather sharply. jpmorgan and wells fargo up in early trading after reported earnings are down along with all the major banks, perhaps continued concern about reserve builds yet to come doesn't seem to be having a big impact on the overall market the s&p up 2.6%. more "squawk on the street" right after this it is an understatement to say that i was extremely worried. i was overwhelmed. and i didn't know where to begin. ♪ i came across sofi and it was the best decision of my life. i feel cared about as a member. there's no extra costs for it or anything like that. it's all kinda like, through the app. we're getting a super competitive interest rate on our money. we're able to invest through the same exact platform. ♪

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with earnings season kicking off, oppenheimer strategist has crafted a shopping list. for more on that tradingnation.cnbc.com more "squawk on the street" coming up. here's the thing about managing multiple clouds for your business. when you've got public clouds, and private clouds, and hybrid clouds- things can get a bit cloudy for you. but now, there's the dell technologies cloud,

powered by vmware. a single hub for a consistent operating experience across all your clouds. that should clear things up. stanford health care is finding new ways to combat the coronavirus, screening new tests for antibodies and releasing an app that offers high-priority coronavirus testing four first responders joining us is the dean at stanford medical school, dr. lloyd minor. thanks for your time this morning. good to talk with you. >> thank you, it's good to be with you >> i want to get to the app in a moment the antibody test got a lot of people excited about the possibility of being able to do something like this at scale, at least in california. can you talk about what we know about the test so far in terms of scale and efficiency?

>> antibody testing is going to be one born componexo importantn the shelter-in-place and today when those can be relaxed some and when we can get back towards a more normal state of affairs what antibody testing does is it screens for an immune response resulting from either exposure to or infection with the virus it's important to remember that an immune response that is the presence of antibodies does not in and of itself mean that there's immunity to infection. it means that immune system has seen the virus and mounted a response antibody testing gives us an indication for individuals as to who may have been exposed and developed a response and also provides an important piece of information for policymakers to know the prevalence of an immune

response in a population. there will be studies done to determine if the antibodies are what we call neutralizing, that is, whether or not the antibodies can actually prevent an infection i'm very proud of my colleagues and stanford medicine who have been at the forefront of developing a diagnostic test, rpcr to identify the virus and now to identify and implement and identify an antibody test. >> right i think i read 500 samples a day, you hope to scale that up quickly. how many could you end up doing potentially as we got into the summer and is there any reason to think that the laws of immunity are different with covid-19 than with prior viruses? >> we ought to be able to scale up to about 1,000 patients a day in our delivery system in our tests. it's important to note that there are other programs, other laboratories, that are developing comparable tests and

this is a good thing we need to roll this out broadly across the united states i think we can expect to see the commercial labs developed, the so-called iliza-based antibody tests and other institutions like stanford as well. that testing couple days with rapid identification of people who are infected by testing them rapidly and then quarantining them and identifyingtheir context that's going to be an important it step as we start to get towards a normal work environment and normal social interactions >> but dr. minor, haven't there been a lot of accuracy questions about some of these antibody tests? in the uk they were going to test everyone and then deemed they weren't good enough to actually put into practice have you tested the accuracy of yours? >> absolutely. it's a very good point there are many commercially

available kits that can be obtained for a variety of different sources. most of them have not, as of today, been validated by the fda. i suspect that will occur in the future our test is being done in a certified laboratory through processes and procedures that have previously been vetted by the fda and so a lot of proof and testing went into the process of developing the test and then rolling it out. so we do feel confident with our test it's important to note all of these antibody tests are going to have to be perfected over time and will have to have the benefit of feedback, of knowing other indications of infection, but we're very confident with our test it's been done with the highest levels of standards and that it is accurate. >> dr. minor, final question here going in a bit of a different direction, relying on your long history as an educator and

somebody also provost, for example, at johns hopkins, how should we be viewing the ability of universities like your own to reopen in the fall what's it going to take in your mind for that to happen and how are you thinking about it? >> lots of discussion. it's an extremely important topic. i think we just have to know more we have to gather as much information as we can in the coming weeks, but you're right, particularly for undergraduates in a living situation that involves dormitories, shared rest rooms, that's an environment in which the virus can spread rapidly and that's why stanford and many other institutions across the united states when covid-19 began to spread, did elect to move to an online curriculum. i can't predict what the decision will be for the fall quarter or the fall semester here at stanford or around the country, but you can rest assured that a lot of people are studying this in a real-time way

to make the very best tigedecisn ensure the health of our students. >> dr. minor, please come back and keep us updated. appreciate that very much. great information. >> take care. later today, don't miss our exclusive interview with the ceo of carnival cruises. arnold donald. 4:00 p.m. eastern on "closing bell." so much to talk to him about, of course that's an exclusive coming up later on cnbc. we're going to be rit ck ayitusghba

welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm rahel soloman. nearly every s&p sector trading positive with consumer discretionary names among the best performers. so many of the stocks slammed throughout the crisis are staging a rally, including the cruise lines, all trading higher today. royal caribbean up more than 10% there. other companies that have been impacted by closures and stay-at-home orders jumping like capri holdings brands and gap. capri up 6%, kohl's 1% slate of hotel names, hilton, mgm and wynn, hilton up 4.6%, marriott 2.3%. worth noting consumer discretionaries off more than 14% from the february highs. back to you. >> all right thank you very much. meantime mortgage rates are swinging wildly amid the market volatility diana olick explains what it

means for you. diana? >> it's something towatch. take a look at the average on the 30-year fixed over the past month up over 4%, back down toward 3, right back up again. daily rates don't usually move like this in both directions so quickly. what's going on if first, it's all about the reaction to the coronavirus. the government's mortgage forbearance bailout allows borrows in financial distress to delay payments up to a year. about 2 million in forbearance granted already has mortgage investors scared lower demand for bonds translates into higher rates the fed starts buying mortgage bonds artificially increasing demands at different amounts some investors get back in which lowers rates but they've been skittish with the economy weakening and unemployment mounting lenders are pulling back on jumbo mortgages, both chase home loans and wells fargo tightening

underwriting and reducing jumbo loan reduction for the 30-year fixed the rate has swung widely day to day but last week two basis points higher than a week before. the five-year arm 37 basis points higher. lenders can't depend on the loans they're currently working on actually closing because of all the social distancing which messes with appraisals and lawyers and the final paperwork. that also factors in to their rates. it's really been quite the ride. carl >> yeah. hard to close if you can't be there in person. fascinating numbers on mort xwaj gauges good tuesday morning carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and dominic chu from separate locations today session high up 650 on the dow as we got to 24 k once again nasdaq going up for four days would be the longest win streak of the year, all-time high for amazon, morgan, and then banks did have