tv Squawk Box CNBC April 16, 2020 6:00am-9:00am EDT
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i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we've been watching the futures keeping an eye on things yesterday was a big down day for the markets. a decline of 1.8%. s&p down about 2.2%. that was the biggest loss we've seen for both of those major averages since april 1 things looking a little better this morning the dow up around 100 points, s&p up around 16 nasdaq up as well. looking at the u.s. jobless claims right now, it is more important than ever. over the last few weeks, we've seen over 16 million people file for jobless claims and this week about 5 million additional claims. it is hard to say exactly how the market will move one way or the other.
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keeping an eye on the treasury market, the 10-year right about 0.638% for that yield. right now time for the squawk planner. the american economy has lost about 8.8 million jobs in the last three weeks economists are expecting the loss of an additional 5 million. we'll get housing starts data with a decline of 15% for the month of march we have a big lineup of guests starting at 6:30 eastern with black rock's larry fink. we also have ken fine berg, dr. emanuel, barry diller and house majority leader mccarthy coming up and cases to top 2 million
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u.s. cases top 640,000 new york cases over 21,000 new york governor now squarequi people to wear a face covering when out in public that takes effect tomorrow becky. >> joe, everybody in engel wood cliffs right now is wearing a mask everyone who is not on air it is something they are take very, very seriously too >> i'm thinking about exactly what it means when we are all trying to get back and when we are in the nasdaq. i think in the entire place, it is just mac. so that's not a public setting if i'm sitting there just on
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camera, that's not a public setting. >> not if you are by yourself, right? >> well mac is walking around. basically i'm by myself. we are on the first floor, just surrounded by new york's finest. i'm thinking i'm okay. i have a good n95 mask i value this mask a lot. you know you need to sterlize it i put it in the oven every day at 180 degrees for a half hour >> really? >> i read you can do that. >> it doesn't cook it at 180 >> no, no. that's what a shauna is, so hopefully not. >> right right. >> i go in there >> 180
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that seems hot on your lungs president trump said he'll release a new set of guidelines today for reopening the country. eam eamon javers joins us with more on that front. >> good morning, the president has been going back and forth about how this is actual will i going to go. early in the week, he suggested he had total authority to reopen the country. he rolled back and said it will be up to the governors yesterday, he's going to make an announcement today about how all of this is going to happen we do expect the governors will get some heads up first. here is what he said yesterday in the rose garden >> we'll be opening up states. some sooner than others. we think some of the states can actually open before the deadline of may 1.
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i think that will be a very exciting time, indeed. governors are looking forward. chomping at the bit to get going. >> we don't have a lot of indication about what the white house plan is at this point. we do know the press has a conference call scheduled in the 3:00 p.m. hour and then a 5:00 p.m. press meeting it seems like he'll meet with the governors at 3:00 and then with the public at 5:00. they did talk to quite a few of ceos and business leaders in conference calls to get an idea of what to do here so they are taking input from a lot of different sources and we'll see what they unveil >> i'm glad they are talking to a lot of different sources and people with opinions on these
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things a lot of what happened from the business leaders is they are saying they'd like to see more effective testing so they can tell their people to come back with confidence. you hear about the number of false positives and false negatives and it raises questions about how effective that testing will be eamon, there were marches on lansing, michigan where there are three counties in michigan with a high percentage of cases. the other parts of the states don't want to be opened up again. they want to be held back. you'll see more of this push and pull as states and counties that have been hit more hard by this coronavirus come up against those areas that haven't seen as much of an impact. >> yes look, we've seen this wide disparity. a lot of it has to do with density, use of public
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transportation, how early in the cycle they were able to get the lockdown in place. you wonder what happens if you lift this and you have people traveling from the higher infected counties to the lower infected counties, you could see that spread again. i was talking to a leader with an idea of how to get your office space secure. one idea is to simply test everybody every time they go into the office and creating a secure space in which everything has been disinfected and everything is secure and the test is like the new metal detector they said we need massive increase of testing and speed of testing. then you could have the situation where you have secure
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offices and getting people back to work again. it seems like we are a long way of any ig like that. >> just talking about when it happens when it is done on a county by county basis probably one picture of it was in florida when some beaches closed and others didn't. you saw a picture of one empty beach butted up against an overcrowded beach. it seems like it will be more and more of a push and unfortunately, it falls down red and blue lines a lot of the blue areas are the most tightly congests where we have subways and people living on top of each other and that is where the spread is more rapid >> you talk about the red/blue divide and the state divide like
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in florida or some swing states. if there is a big outbreak in florida and the president is seen as doing badly there, that could badly affect his chances if they are able to mitigate this and the president is seen as successfully handled this, that will make a huge difference in the election as well so much of our economy depends on this our politics are impacted. this is the driving force in our lives in every sphere. it is stunning something we didn't even contemplate and is driving about every facet of american life >> thank you it is good to see you. >> thank you, becky. we should tell you earnings just out from blackrock with a profit of $6.60 versus
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$6.36 expected the street was looking for $3.58 milli $3.58 million and the number came in better than that we'll talk about what else larry fink is seeing we'll talk to him coming up a little later this hour joe? okay, we'll talk markets with investor kathy wood she's good some interest comments she's bullish overall. mod rati mod rating the gains the day before that was pretty solid. kind of churning around. volatility less than anticipated. take a look at the new apple iphone se unveiled yesterday
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>> announcer: today's big number, 67.46% that's how much wti crude has tumbled so for in 2020 on pace for its worst year ever. commodities fell to the worst year ever since 2002 welcome back u.s. equity futures this morning have responded to some of the clues we are getting not just from the united states but around the world in terms of reopening economies but the triple digit gains now up somewhere between 50 and 100, we've been bouncing off both of those levels germany perhaps getting set to reopen talk about what to do here with president trump and who he's talking to and trying to figure out how to move forward in terms of reopening, restarting the economy. this great economy we have
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i sound like him, don't i? >> it is such a tricky question. i've tried to put myself in a lot of different people's shoes. it is one thing to be here in the epicenter and feel how scarey it feels. you try to feel how it feels in different parts of the country it is a big country and people have different opinions. i want to hear from the scientists and the business leaders too. a lot of them had issues too concerns if they bring their employees back too early, people get sick, what that means for a second shutdown and if they'd be held liable for people getting sick so many concerns and perspectives it will take time to play this out. >> i keep hearing two things
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the liability issue. with a huge question whether it is shared by the company or the real estate owner, the landlord if they'll do temperature checks if you have shared elevators in a shared building, who is responsible. in a world where so much of us are knowledge workers, there is a question of how many people need to come back. the other part of the business, restaurants in the retail world, the idea of coming back is up in the air. the flip side is the demand. is there going to be demand? >> that's right. >> where will the demand be? >> because we have such a service economy. we've swung so far from manufacturing to service, the demand picture will be the biggest. every time you hear about shutdowns for airlines, it is
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the demand picture you hear about stores closing and a lot of time it is the demand you have to wait and see how things shake out that's the crazy question. you heard from david solomon goldman sachs. he's looking at the recession going the rest of the year you want to talk to more and more of those people we'll get a chance to talk to larry fink shortly too joe? >> it is your tease, isn't it, beck where are we going >> it is i thought you had something to say. an update on the race to find a vaccine for covid-19 take a look at shares of bed
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bath and beyond. march sales fell 31% april sales down 42 percent e from a year ago. announced the sale of the one kings lane decor unit. this morning up .60 cents. as we head to the break, let's look at some of the images from the impact of coronavirus across america. ever since we've gone mobile on the now platform,
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clinical trials. eunice, i have missed you. good to see you. >> good to see you, my friend. nasdaq listed sinovac has already started injecting volunteers chinese businessman is at the forefront of the fight of the pandemic his company sinovac got approval from china to start clinical trials on the vaccine. a vaccine shouldn't be for a certain country or area, it should be for the globe. his company is using an older method but what he considers safer. it uses a virus killed by chemicals. using this lab and will test again before going into trials 100 volunteers are being recruited for the first phase and doses of various sizes are being prepared
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prepping the safety for testing in june and then testing in china or overseas. that's faster than normal he says the chinese government has made testing a priority they've allocated land for production the company said instead of the usual six months, it took them one move to get approval for human clinical trials. the government here is allocating a lot more money for this effort. the company has received tens of millions of dollars for this company alone and that the government is matching the investment dollar for dollar >> eunice, i'm trying to figure out what life is likethere in beijing. i'm looking at the traffic behind you definitely more than we used to
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see. what is it compared to what normal life would be >> it is getting better incrementally. with err seei-- we are seeing at more people at the shops a lot more people venturing out. the government has put in stringent measures we still have to go through temperature checks and making sure we are always using hand sanitizer at different places. there are more health codes and ways in which our privacy is bei being impinged on. for me to get into a restaurant, you have to scan a bar code. it is not really normal.
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but we are trying to get back a to business here >> what does the bar code tell the restaurant that you've passed a health check or something is. >> yes there are two different bar codes. with unis one is to check for health and the other to prove where you've gone in my case, it shows i've been in beijing the past 14 days. you give access to the mobil phone company to though sshow tn fact have been in beijing. it is one measure that helps everyone around me but it is also kind of scarey because you give up your privacy and information about yourself
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>> interesting you all went into it first we are watching you to see signs of how we come out of it too too. great to see you, eunice yoon. still ahead, a huge lineup this morning starting right after this quick break, blackrock's larry fink will join us and then iap expedia chairman will be with us. a look at yeery'stdas winners and losers ♪
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as homes become schools at&t has created a $10 million dollar fund to support distance learning tools, curriculum and resources to help educators and families keep school in session does anybody know what this book is? hi class. good morning. good morning. because the key to keeping kids learning, is keeping kids connected.
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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour about three hours before the market would open up the dow would open up by 125, s&p up about 20 and nasdaq about 96 points higher let's also show you crude at the moment wti crude buy a barrel for $20.25 becky, over to you >> andrew, thank you blackrock just out with its earnings beating on top and bottom lines for the quarter joining us now is blackrock ceo
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larry fink good to have you here. you beat expectations by a long shot $6.60 versus $6.36 the street was expecting. an increase in higher base fees and growth in technology services revenue too i think what surprised me the most is that you saw $35 billion in quarterly net in flows for the markets. tell us what you are seeing. >> first of all, welcome it is nice to talk to you from home this is my first time to talk to you from home. it is a little different for me. let me start off and say, becky, that it has been hard for everybody. blackrock's 16,000 employees really brought everything together if i were to reflect on the quarter and in flows and
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outflows, a few of our major components really performed really well. there had been so much talk over the years about etfs on the show when i'm there, i'm always asked about etfs and do they represent risk. let me say first and foremost, the etf markets perform incredibly well, even in the most stressful weeks those looking for liquidity and looking to move beta performers up or down, they were able to do that all of the fixed etfs performed quite well there was never a period of time where the imbalance between the underlying assets and etfs were really really askewed whether to sell them to reduce or buy them to get expose your
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that is first. two, in our quarter, the allotted revenues were up 34% from a year ago. most importantly, we have 250 clients including all of blackrock. the aladin system worked fantastic. we did not design it to have 90% of employees remote. i probably received more compliments about the aladin system you are right, the whole firm came together with $35 billion worth of inflow. operating income was up 3%
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our margins didn't really move all that much. up 20 basis points i want to use a bench mark of february 21st to give you an idea of what we saw. we saw cumulatively from the beginning of the year to february 21, we had about $82 billion of long-term inflows we had outflows in cash. from february 21 to the end of the quarter, we actually had $1 $100 billion of outflows, mostly in index product where people are going in and out buying
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exposures. we were beginning one of the best times in our history and ended up where we were so we saw big outflows in the index products huge inflows in cash in quarter year, we are seeing bigger inflows we had active equity inflows of a quarter billion. what this shows me, the area we emphasizes i shares, we had $7
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billion of inflows between i shares, between aladin platform that was up, the components worked. then one of the biggest reasons why it worked, we have spoken to over 50,000 of our clients since the pandemic really become a top priority between myself and a few other executives, we've had over 100 different virtual meetings with other ceos, cios and governmental officials the presence of blackrock worldwide has given us an opportunity to work with our clients. this quarter, working with clients meant helping them reduce exposure. overall, we are winning more
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share of mind with our clients >> based on the number of clients and number of government leaders and others in this whole thing, would you say we've seen the worst of it or is there more bad news to come >> i'm not a scientist so it is hard for me to answer that question if the disease curve in the developed world continues to decline, at the same time we see the curve of governmental support for monetary and fiscal policy worldwide increases, we could have seen the bottom on the other hand, i think what the market is still under appreciating, it has been mostly the developed world that has experienced the virus.
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as we start entering summer time, the southern hemisphere is beginning to have their winter are we going to start to see the growth of the disease around other parts of the world does that mean we close the borders? i don't believe we have any real information about how the disease, how covid-19 is going to spread in the world we have learned like in indonesia, burials are up 40 percent from a year ago. no one talks about it. there is no testing or platform to monitor that. that's one of the big issues we are going to have. the imf and world bank are talking about this right now where we are seeing mostly a
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supply of masks and gloves are being held in the developed world that does not have the ability to secure the mask and does not have the necessary health care systems and crowding in larger cities we are still going to see elements of the disease increasing in other parts of the world. until we have adequate testing, it is hard for me to see how we are going to reboot in the next 30 days. every business will be cautious and protective of their employees. they want employees to feel good about coming back to the office. let's be clear, anxiety is still very high. we hope we have the ability to
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reboot i know many leaders told the president yesterday, we need to have adequate testing to make sure we have a secure environment. >> what's -- >> i'm sorry go ahead, becky. >> what's adequate testing, larry? how do you measure that? >> i think it is different for different organizations and situations in a factory where everybody is coming to work in a defined location, that is a closed environment. in a closed environment, you are going to have the ability to do either weekly testing and to that process, you could probably reboot in the service side of the world like restaurants, airplanes that represents a different issue where you have an open system.
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the question is how do you reboot that? to me, it is all about testing and making sure that we could assure safety, we could assure that people could eat at a restaurant, fly on an airplane with security that every other person in the restaurant or flying on the plane is disease free until we have that testing -- >> you just spoke -- we just spoke with eunice yoon in beijing. she told us about the testing there. she has to have a card with a bar code on it that checks her to get into her paymeapartment restaurants. part of what they can see is her health status and where she has been in the last 14 days she said, you give up privacy but you are more secure when you
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are out to know in a restaurant, everybody has passed that same check to get in. i don't know if that would fly in a democratic state like the u.s. >> this is why china has been able to reboot faster. in china, they are still very worried about service end. restaurants are not even close to 30% full even with that testing. in china, you are seeing the manufacturing side rebooting but the service side is not rebooting as fast. you are right, our democracy is a strong foundation of who we are. if people agree to that, that's a whole different story. that is hard for me to see people giving up those rights.
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>> then you carry out the idea that we are such a service-based economy, it makes you wonder what happens from here if there is no demand. if they don't want to go back to restaurants, spas or gyms, what happens? >> our economy i don't believe we'll have a v-shaped economy i believe we'll have something closer to a j that turns into a u. if we have adequate testing. if the testing that abbott labs has been testing works we can have in airports prior to going to a terminal, you are tested if it requires getting to the airport an hour, hour and a half early, before you go through the
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airport itself, you are tested and determined you are disease free and then everybody in the terminal on airplanes can feel secure so it is about testing it is about knowledge. at the same time, it is about creating anti-viral cocktails that reduce the severity of the disease. if everybody felt much more comfortable that, okay, i could get covid-19 and i had a very modest risk of being placed into an icu, more like a influenza, maybe we could get on to our life originally when people were talking covid-19, early months, they were talking about, well, look at the influenza, we have around 20,000 americans dying
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every year many people get it every year. we live our life with that disease. we need to get to that point where we are going to live our life with covid-19 too whether through a vaccination or through therapies and a cocktail of different drugs to reduce the severity i feel confident over the next months we'll determine different protocols to minimize the severity through that process, i do believe we'll be able to reboot. i believe we'll be able to have a better, more normalized environment but it may not be in june or july it may be in august. and so the economy will be slow to really reboot as you said, we are such a heavy
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service economy. we need to have all americans feeling comfortable, feeling safe at this time, i don't believe that many people feel secure and safe >> that gives us a lot to think about. larry, will you bare wiear withs we take a quick break. looking at shares of twitter, that stockdo downgraded to neutral. the decline because of heavy dependence on product launches or sports. you can watch us any time live or on the cnbc app we'll be right back.
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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning we are in the green right now. dow looks like it would open up about 100 points higher. we want to get back to our special guest, ceo of blackrock larry fink i want to go rapid fire with you. i want to pick up on one thing you said to becky. the idea that you don't expect a v-shaped recovery. you talked about it being like a u or even a j. give me your 30-second thought there given the risk on the market today >> hi, andrew. the risk on the market for today is that the disease will take longer the risk for today is that we don't have americans and europeans feeling very comfortable with their
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environment. so that will be taking time. what i'm saying, i just don't see a rapid rebound. i see a rebound that will take time as we develop testing and as we develop the anti-virals before we develop before we dev vaccination. >> but you also suggested we might be at -- you also suggested we might have hit a bottom and so i think what we're all trying to figure out is is the market fairly priced >> well, there are two curves. there's the curve of the disease and the curve of government response we've seen -- we've seen historic governmental response the federal reserve has said they -- you know, they could purchase a couple trillion dollars of assets in addition to monetary stimulus, like the
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dramatic fiscal response by the american government and other governments. we're doing quite a bit to stabilize the economy, stabilize markets to allow corporations to access capital and so these are two different curves and right now the response by governments is quite large and i do believe -- >> what's the long-term impact of all of the response by the government talk about the long-term impact because if we're printing money, if every government is printing money, is it going to effectively nullify everybody? are dollars going to become so less valuable and therefore assets are more valuable maybe we do have inflation >> we are triaging a sick
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economy. in doing so we are accumulating large amounts of debt. it's like being in an operating room, you are doing everything you can to keep the patient strong i think that's what our government is doing and i applaud the government for all of the actions it's doing. i would hope europe, specifically germany, does more. i think europe needs to do more. i am very worried about the actions of europe because they're not as significant as they should be and so we're going to have to see how this plays out with the length of time people are connected to their lives and their safety and the other curve of governmental support.
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>> fiscal stimulus, helping the independent contractors. >> how big if it adds up another trillion dollars? does it add up another trillion dollars? >> you're looking at more inflation. we are going to look at more debasing or devaluation of the american dollar. it's almost at a record high right now. so a little devaluation of the dollar would really improve our competitiveness worldwide. so i don't look at that as a bad thi thing. >> i believe some inflation would be good. >> let me flip things around you've been one of the biggest advocates for esg. the idea of it being such an
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important thing for companies to be focused on. it's socializing and privatizing gains and the government is effectively having a push on every company in america arguing the very idea of free mark market, where does it land in that it has much more importance. first of all, in the first quarter we had $10 billion of esg etf so we saw from clients more than ever demand for products that are -- that have an esg focus and for the fifth quarter in a row those products outperformed regular indexes i actually believe when you focus on safety and people's fear of the pandemic, it also
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enlarge's people's feelings about our environment. and so in my conversation, even with the pandemic, even the closing of all of these small and medium businesses, even with all of the stress i'm still having a remarkable amount of conversations about how should esg play in a portfolio. i think the conclusion will be when we're over the worst part of the virus and we have this up swing in the economy, i truly believe more and more people are going to say, i'm still worried about our world beyond just a health crisis but also an varnmental crisis. there's no question today in our economy the disease curves
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aren't more prominent, but the discussion of esg is more prominent, maybe secondary to the others >> what do you think about the government effectively privatizing -- or, rather, socializing the corporate losses that are taking place and privatizing the gains? that's what's happened here. we've now done it twice effectively in the last 12 years. >> and i do believe it's going to lead to questions of the role of stock pre-purchases we may see rising corporate taxes to pay for these deficits. we're going to have to -- when we're over -- you're asking questions that are not in my mind as important as the moment but will be very important once we believe the disease curve is
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behind us and we have more safety and soundness your questions are legitimately important but i don't believe they're primary at this moment we all have to be worried about how we are triaging and if i can fixing the health of the global economy. we are arguing what you just said we're not weeding out the under performers like we should be the cleaning out of companies is a natural process so you're absolutely right on this, and i -- but i don't know how today, especially with such governmental support, how do you -- is this time, andrew, to pick win noers and loners and l? i have a hard time making that judgment call now. if you're picking a loser, are you willing to say that 120,000 employees are going to lose their job? >> larry, it's a longer conversation i absolutely agree with you.
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today is not the time to legislate that but it is a conversation that is going to have a huge impact on our country and i imagine on the markets in the future and i hope we can continue that conversation stay healthy and safe. we appreciate it this morning. >> thanks. all right. coming up, we're going to get you ready for today. big jobless claim number congress expecting 5 million people filing for jobless benefits "squawk box" will be right back. life isn't a straight line.
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breaking economic news americans filing for unemployment claims. expected to top 5 million for the third straight week. plus, which industries and people deserve to be saved by the taxpayer going to be discussing that. as anti-body tests ramp up, the number of coronavirus cases appear to be growing in the u.s. dr. zeke emmanuel. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now
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good morning, welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin u.s. equity futures have been getting back a little of yesterday's big loss although that came after a big gain the day before u.s. equity futures at this hour up 190, just under that big lineup of guests this morning. we'll be speaking with ken fineberg, zeke ee manu wal-- emmanuel we have a big jobs number. it's the most important number that we watch every week nobody watches it as much as steve liesman. he joins us with a preview of what to expect steve? >> reporter: good morning, becky. i have some exclusive data that we've calculated at cnbc that normally i'm excited to bring you exclusive data
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this data is a sign of the payments out there in the economy. not quite as exciting. looking for another total of 5 million to be added to the jobs number that would bring the total up to 22 million since the 14th of march over those weeks since we began shutting down the economy. wall street wondering, is it complicated? depends how much longer this goes to see whether or not there's additional deterioration in the economy how much the disease spreads in each of the states and the extent of the shutdown there's another factor here. processing the flow of claims. what we've done here is we've added up the claims by state over the last four weeks and what you find is that california leads the pack here with 2.2 million claims this is the data reported as of last week. we don't have this week yet. a million in pennsylvania.
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820,000 in michigan. 800,000 in new york. 760,000 in texas you can look at this and you can say, you know what, new york should not be less than half or even 1/3 of california so there's probably more to come from new york. so we did it another way another way to look at it is claims as a percent of the work force. when you look at this you see astonishing pennsylvania 16% of the work force has filed for jobless claims there going down the list. 12% and going down the states. we can imagine, for example, more claims to come from florida. more claims to come from new york so we might be past the peak in the total, but there's quite a bit of tests you have to do. we look at has the market processed or heard the worst news maybe on a total basis but there's some catchup to go
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that catchup could be just a result of states needing to process claims some of them, new york as my colleague rahel has reported, updating their technology system right now. the question is, is this the peak we'll be watching the numbers and looking at them on an individual state basis to know are we at the peak becky? >> steve, thank you very much. stay with us we spoke to larry fink of blackrock a short while ago and here's his take on what needs to be done to get america back to work >> every business is going to be very cautious. they want to be protective of their employees. they want to make sure their employees feel good about coming back to the office let's be clear, anxiety is still very high. and we hope we have the ability to reboot. but in doing so, i know many leaders told the president yesterday we need to have adequate testing to make sure we
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have a secured environment. >> let's bring in larry c kanto. >> i'm afraid there's no letter that captures this the left side is a v, sharper, and the right side more like a u. i think when we get recovery, i don't think it will take that long, but it's going to be in fits and starts. vary a lot among regions, among industries >> larry, one of the things he talked about was just this idea that you could probably get manufacturing and other closed
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environments back to work more quickly than some of the service sectors because in the service sector, whether it be a restaurant, whether that be a movie theater, whether that be an airplane, whether it be a hair salon, people are going to be a little more reluctant to go back to places because they're going to be scared that's why he said testing needs to be so aggressive. obviously it's going to take a while, but i also think that in different areas of the country there may be different fear factors based on what you've lived through and how many cases are in your town and your county >> no question i mean, you know, travel is going to take a long time. we're not there yet in terms of testing. i'm not a health expert but it's pretty clear we're not ready yet. you see in parts of asia that have success that they are restarting the economy
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they can figure out who's got it even if they don't have any symptoms the markets are behaving so much better than the economy. we've never seen an economy drop like a rock like this with the bottom falling out the markets, if i'd of told you a few months ago we're going to see over 20 million people file jobless claims in a month, bottom of the economy was going to fall out and ask you what the markets are going to do, i doubt you'd say that year to date they're down like 14%. >> right >> and i think it's the fed. we've never seen a response like this, becky. it reminds me a little bit of what mario draghi said during
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the european debt crisis, we'll do whatever it takes we have unlimited qe the fed has expanded its balance sheet $2 trillion. they did 3.5 over six years with the financial crisis we've never seen anything like this it's almost like there's a put out there. so i think the fed -- congress is making sure that companies have enough access to credit this relates to the recovery company bankruptcy so we can get the economy going again a little faster and that's encouraging. >> steve liesman >> reporter: becky, i think there's a series of races going on here. economists, as larry said, have no idea what the right things to do are to bring the economy back i think what's interesting here,
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we've had several fed officials talk about the need to talk about national testing to bring it back. that's something separate. what's going on here is a race that the economy shouldn't be shut down so long as to turn what raphael boss stick frtic fa said, turn a liquidity problem into a solvency problem. if it stays longer, you might have a resurgence of that. people who kept their jobs might turn there is a race with people's patien patience we haven't talked about that you've seen a turn in the polling and survey data towards approval of the shutdowns, but you've also seen very small numbers of protests around for people who aren't really involved, haven't seen the infection rates that we see here in the new york area, some of the metropolitan areas over time you can lose the public's patience and
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cooperation and support for the shutdown so there's a race here to get these things in place, becky, in order to bring the economy back before you lose public support >> understood. larry, thank you very much for joining us steve, we'll see you in a little bit. the jobless numbers coming up. the jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. eastern time joe? >> thanks, becky. coming up, the relationship between big business and small business during the pandemic we'll speak with a company that has ties with nike and others after the break. they're still operating. they haven't been closed down in oregon, but it's tough sledding. we'll talk to the ceo. watch the shares of united airlines they cut the flight schedule for may by 90% demand now is essentially at zero we're warning of likely job cuts "squawk box" coming right back
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columbia sports wear you're still fully operational in terms of your employees i don't even know if you laid anyone off at this point, bob, but you have had to institute a lot of things, social distancing and changing the way you do business can you go into that please? >> yeah, absolutely. we're a somewhat seasonal business 20% of our work force is seasonal we were in a gear up mode as this started i will say, we haven't laid anybody off but we haven't clearly staffed up to where we might otherwise. business has slowed a little bit. we are able to operate we are deemed an essential services we are maintaining a living environment. as long as we maintain social distancing that's been an easy and difficult challenge. we work outside. we have to get to the job sites
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together as we're working and loading things into the back of the truck, just people that are like and work together, staying six feet apart has been a challenge to create an environment where you remember to do that every second of every day. been very challenging but we're working hard to keep our people safe >> bob, stay with us we have news from wilfred frost. we want to get to him quickly and come back to you. >> reporter: joe, looking through those numbers from morgan stanley, revenue looks like 9.4 billion a bit behind 9.7. eps 1.01 per share versus 1.14 which is the estimate. they were behind on both of the lines. the all important provisions for credit losses. they break them out in non-compensation which has rizzs enfrom 1.7 billion to 2.1 billion.
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on the surface that doesn't look like a massive increase. estimates are 2.8. that could be a bit more do more digging on that number trading is pretty strong 4.9 versus 3.8 billion expectation. that did like the others for mainly the fixed income area as opposed to equities area wealth management revenues has been key 4 billion. the forecast is 4.3 billion. that's a little behind we have to dive into this a little bit more. at the moment, trading down a little bit 2% or so worth noting morgan stanley was the best performer coming into earnings this weekend. >> thanks. let's get back to bob grover who
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is in portland, oregon president of pacific landscape management are you planning to get the ppp money? will your employees still be working? is there enough work if you do secure the funding >> well, that's an interesting question we have maintenance contracts so about half of our revenue is on contract few people have canceled maintenance contracts. a good portion of the work is ongoing but we do have a tremendous amount of project-related work we've applied for the ppp. i have not heard back from our bank that we have got an accepted application i heard they thought they were going to run out of money as of last night we're not sure if we made the cut. hoping if we didn't make the cut, that they do expand the program for us i don't know we are excited about an opportunity like that to keep
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our people working because we take care of plants but first and foremost we want to take care of our people there are so many people out of work i'm hoping we can keep our people working hoping our customers need us and the services we're providing and the projects we're doing can keep us going through the next few months as we get through the crisis. >> you have 300 employees and 120 trucks how many guys on each truck? how does that work some people wearing masks, riding in the back of the truck? what's happening >> no. we have a one person per truck policy we have some four-door trucks. one of our teams said how about if we tarp off and create a physical vapor barrier between the front and the back we have a lot of employees driving their own vehiclesto the site
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we're figuring it out. that's been an interesting challenge, too. >> none of your big clients at this point, has anyone canceled. they need landscape management you could delay it or not get it quite as frequently if no one's actually there. >> yeah. we take care of a few hotels and a few restaurants and some retail centers we've had a few of the hotels cancel us because they're closed most people understand they have to keep it going most of our folks are keeping us going on that. people are saying, let's hold off on the projects until the crisis is over >> good luck you could be running a restaurant chain or something.
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it seems like the bright side is you're still working and you have all of your people still on the payroll. god speed and good luck, bob thanks for joining us this morning to talk about it. when we come back, dr. zeke emanuel about the coronavirus testing and the next steps to beat the pandemic. the futures, the dow likes it would open by 86 points. we have the jobless claims numbers to get through at 8:30 expectations are pretty bad. hard to say how the market will react. it will be hard to find a number worse than the 5 millionlrdy aea expected "squawk box" will be right back. here's the thing about managing multiple clouds for your business. when you've got public clouds,
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working day in, day out.e. at&t is here. providing support with advanced services for first responders. and connected temporary hospitals, mobile testing sites and emergency management centers. because until their job is done, it is essential that we all have their backs. it's what we've always done. it's what we'll always do.
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looking at an empty shot of times square there still to come on "squawk box." airlines, small businesses, health care workers, who deserves a government bailout? who doesn't? the t.a.r.p. czar, ken feinberg will be our special guest to discuss it then at the top of the hour, barry diller is our guest. talk about all things about this pandemic including travel and what it means to his company expedia. first, as we head to a break, check out this morning's biggest dow winners and losers squawk returns after this. save hundreds on your wireless bill
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and no credit check on the first two lines. get a $50 prepaid card when you switch. it's the most reliable wireless network. and it could save you hundreds. xfinity mobile. >> the dow is indicated up by almost 100 points. you're watching this as we get closer to 8:30 also, new details are emerging today about the coronavirus bailout. phil lebeau is here and he has more on that front phil, good morning >> becky, we've already seen the 25 billion in payroll grants they've decided on that. still finalizing details
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disbursement of money to come. the airlines had a bit of a move higher yesterday keep in mind, the bailout moves, no stock buy backs stock washrrants to the bailout it amounts to 3% awarded to each person yesterday in an exclusive interview with american airlines ceo doug parker, we talked to him before they said they received or planned to receive $5.8 billion about the restrictions locked in place here's what he had to say. >> they're conditions we're happy to accept.
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if you find yourself in need of government assistance, it's fair to say until you have paid off the loans, for example, if you choose to take loans, that you don't have stock buy backs, we don't do dividends, that the money doesn't flow to your executives >> reporter: those are a lot of the questions put into the airline bailout. now the question comes for a company like boeing which has said to congress, look, we may need up to $60 billion not just for us but also for our suppliers and for the aviation industry, what will the final restrictions be there? keep in mind, boeing has not committed to whether or not it will be seeking a particular amount from the treasury department they may still end up doing all of this in the private market, guys i think these are the questions that people are focused on as you take a look at what happens
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with boeing over the next week to two weeks as to how much they'll take from the federal government and what the conditions are attached to it. >> that was phil lebeau in chicago. good to see you. thank you. we'll continue the conversations because as the bailout agreements have been finalized, there's conversations between which people and which industries deserve to be saved by the taxpayer. joining us is ken feinberg of kenneth feinberg law office. ken, it's great to see you one of the big questions that this entire pandemic and the response has created is the idea that we have effectively socialized the losses and privatized the gains all over again. everybody wants to get this economy moving as fast as humanly possible but there are going to be winners and losers
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picked along the way how should it be done? >> that's democracy. you asked congress in consultation with the executive branch, they decide the prioriti priorities what's very important is there has to be bipartisanship if anybody feels that the program is polarizing, it's shameful i think what's happened here is an attempt to come together, work out a common blueprint and implement that blueprint all the talk in the world about how great the government is in responding to this crisis, you don't get the money out, you don't get it out fast and people have to see the results. that's the key >> let me ask you this
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jamal was on cnbc last week talking about this in the case of the airlines, the goal is to say airlines are critical to the u.s. economy you want to keep the employees employed and on the payroll, but at the same time in the way these bailouts are structured, they're also protecting the shareholders the question is, what's critical about airline shareholders to any other shareholder? why should the shareholder of the airline, for example, be a beneficiary relative to somebody else >> i think the answer is fairly straightforward. there's a prevailing view in washington that the airlines, unlike another company or another industry, it is the airlines that are a critical part of this i think what's happened is congress has concluded that it is vital to keep the airline
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industry at least solvent for the future of the country. i think people can take issue with that implicit in that, but at the end of the day elected officials are sitting down with the executive branch, airlines are not mom and pop. that's what drove the 9/11 fund as andrew sorkin knows very well the 9/11 victim compensation fund was a result of the airlines recognizing they need help against potential lawsuits. >> let me ask you this as a matter of public policy over the past decade, specifically over the past several years, corporations in america have lobbied very aggressively for lower taxes, to pay less in taxes. the wealthiest have lobbied very aggressively, successfully to have a lower tax rate.
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when all is said and done and who will ultimately be the beneficiary of the savings that are going to take place here, all of the companies that are going to take place here, are people who would be paying less than otherwise will that change the conversation >> we'll see in november of 2020, i'll tell you that i don't think we've ever seen anything like this this is an asterisk like the 9/11 attacks were unique i think what we're going through now is an aberration from the normal public policy discourse and i think you better be careful about drawing too many conclusions from an unprecedented historical situation but i think a simple question -- >> ken, let me ask you something. i apologize for the back and forth. we're on a delay here a little bit. you could look at all of the things that have happened over the past 30 or 40 years as
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aberrations, as idiosyncratic pieces but if you were trying to plan and have a budget for this country in terms of how much revenue you need, how much you need -- >> just lost you. >> we now have had 9/11, we've had 2008, we've had now 2020 in this pandemic. it seems that every ten years we have some type of disaster that requires some major infusion of capital from this country and we seem to be under prepared because even in the best of times we spend more than we even have >> well, i think that. you could make a very strong argument, as you have in your question, or statement that we are not well prepared. we don't anticipate tragedies like this. i'm not sure you can anticipate a coronavirus tragedy like this. i do agree with the thrust of your question, that we ought to be better prepared for these
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global tragedies that impact every american citizen and every world citizen frankly. >> one of the other questions is what type of restrictions or terms should be on these bailouts, not just for the airlines but potentially across the country? one thing that's happening, we are putting a lot of money into the economy, i think is absolutely necessary i want be to be clear, it's absolutely necessary to do these things now in the moment the question is you look at the airlines, for example, come september 30th if there's not demand for their services, they're very much aloud to start to layoff employees and so the question is how much does that really buy you >> i think that's a very, very good question. two answers to your question first, making sure that the legislation and the regulations that accompany these bailouts
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very specifically con strain the airlines or any other beneficiary so that the congress is getting what it intends in the way of protection for individual employees, et cetera. secondly, i've learned from experience that you better have somebody who's administering these programs independent, very competent, a bipartisan credible individual where nobody will question any of the political motivations or the rationale behind these bailouts. substance is one thing process, getting the money out fast in a way that everybody thinks is credible, apolitical is important. >> i was going to say -- go ahead. >> that's why senator schumer
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for one, i know, was very concerned about making sure how the administration rolls out these programs in a competent apolitical way was a very important objective of his. >> do you want the job to oversee this thing >> there are thousands of people that can do this job this is not rocket science you've got to just brace yourself, follow the statute, follow the regulations, do what's right and very, very important i've learned personally, very credible, you have to be apolitical. this is a public policy assignment that requires credibility, competence and a sense among the american people that it's being administered in a very fair and equitable way. >> ken feinberg, you're a national treasure. thanks so much for joining us. please stay safe and healthy appreciate your time
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but in my mind i'm still 35. that's why i take osteo bi-flex, to keep me moving the way i was made to. it nourishes and strengthens my joints for the long term. osteo bi-flex. because i'm made to move. good morning and welcome back, everybody. google parent company alphabet plans to slow the pace of hiring for the rest of this year as it deals with the impact of the coronavirus. the company hired 20,000 new
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employees last year. ceo telling staff the company will also reduce spending in some areas, like data centers. lyft has launched a new on demand delivery service. the program also offers earnings opportunities for drivers as demand for regular raids has plunged. lyft says drivers could be booked to deliver items for government agencies, non-profits, businesses, health care providers that service will initially be available in about a dozen u.s. cities including atlanta, dallas, houston, san francisco andrew >>. combing up when we return, dr. zeke emanuel on the importance of testing and getting government up and running again. at the top of the hour, media mogul barry diller joins us. "squawk" returns in a moment
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let's take a look at the futures. give you a look now somewhere between up and negative. slowly losing some steam just turned negative we have some time. we'll see what happens between now and the market open. pre-market has lost most of the upward momentum we had andrew >> okay. meantime, abbott labs out with results beating estimates
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for the top and bottom lines we want to get to meg tirrell who joins us with the important news meg. >> reporter: good morning, andrew yesterday abbott said it was launching an antibody test this is what people have been waiting for. this is a test to determine whether you've been infected in the past as opposed to the tests known as pcr that can detect current infection. abbott is planning to supply 4 million antibody tests in the united states this month ramping up to supply 20 million per month by june. this is the third test for covid-19 abbott has launched the others are the prc tests and the laboratory tests that we have heard are not being used enough and they are increasing in labor ra tore ris looking through abbott's results this morning, guys, the
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diagnostics unit seeing the lowest organic growth for the quarter. they're saying covid-19 caused routine tests to decline whereas, analysts are expecting a boost from the three test offerings of covid-19, the other tests are seeing major declines because people aren't going to the doctor right now back over to you >> meg, let me ask you there have been some questions about how effective all of these tests are. a lot of false positives, a lot of false negatives what do you hear what's the real story? how good are they? is there room for improvement? how soon can that happen >> reporter: there are major concerns about the dependability of all of these tests particularly in the antibody space. the fda has tried to allow more tests to get to market by loosening regulations. that's causing concerns about how rigorous the validation is
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for all of these tests and you hear the measures of sensitivity and specificity. you want them to be in the high 90% range to give you assurance that you're not getting false positives and false negatives. there is no doubt in looking at the antibody tests from over seas, they don't have the dependability that we want you're taking a test and you're telling somebody, you have a 50/50 chance this might be right, that's pretty scary that is something people will be looking at >> okay. meg, thank you very much good to see you. for more right now on the front line against covid-19.
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dr. emmanuel, it's great to see you. >> nice to be with you >> what do you think it looks like on may 1st. >> the indicator in the areas we're going to open will drop to 20 million below population per day we're not at that level in most parts of the country some areas are likely to be at that level talking about the testing. we really need to be doing millions of tests a day. right now the cdc recommendations for doing tests are mainly focused on who to
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treat and who to tell they have covid-19 if you want to open up the economy, you need to have a test that is looking to lock down the spread and prevent more spread of the disease and that toewss a different population, front line health care workers, front line grocery workers. people who might be what have been called super spreaders that connect with lots of different people that may not know they're infected that takes many more tests than just the 100,000 they're doing a day roughly. >> meg just talked about the testing and the number of false negatives, false positives how can we possibly reach that when the test results getting back we don't know if they're correct? >> that's a serious question having a false positive thinking
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someone has covid from a spread standpoint, that's not a bad thing. it's really bad for the person who has to sit for 14 days in isolation, et cetera from a spread perspective, the case where you say you don't have covid-19 and yet they've got covid-19 and they're still walking around, talking to people or going to groceries and maybe putting their hands on various refrigerators and leaving their virus, that's the problem on the spread. you're absolutely right. we do need to make sure these tests are better calibrated and we do need to make sure that the false positive rate is very low and that's really, really important. we need mass screening test that's easy, may have too many false positives but then you have a pcr which has been very
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well-calibrated and figures out who gets it. that's where we need to go how fast we'll get there, that's really important from the perspective of easing the physical distancing measures we have if you don't have this testing capacity in place and can't do a million, 2 million a day, it's hard to see how you're going to ease up. if you want to ease up, you have to reduce the number of spreaders. >> you're somebody who has worked in an administration, the obama administration we are starting to see push back from people and places where they don't feel like the spread is all that bad, where they don't have cases, where they are frustrated and hurt by the economic pain under the shut down and are starting to push back you're seeing this in the middle of april what is the political push back
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going to be maintaining the strict measures but is painful from an economic perspective. >> everyone feels everyone's pain it's very important to understand the pain, and we really do have to minimize the economic damage. that means you need a whole infrastructure for addressing this it really reflects political leadership i don't think the country has gotten a very clear perspective on what are the measures we're looking at what are the steps we're taking to put those measures in, like a testing infrastructure, contact tracing infrastructure in place so we can address this problem what are we doing to make sure people who are older, people who have co-morbidities, whether it's diabetes or high blood pressure or cardiac disease are protected? and i think that's part of the problem here yes, we need to open the economy.
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yes, we need to have certain measures in place to do that in the safest possible way. the american public has stepped up we can see that in the numbers of hospitalizations and now they're waiting. what's the next step we have to do to open up the economy? it's hard to hear from the leadership what those measures are. i know that a lot of state governors are scrambling to get a testing regime in place so they can do exactly what you said >> zeke, want to talk to you about the ultimate conundrum children and schools and the issue of whether and how do we open, especially children that are younger given they come home and it's a contact sport, the ability to have them be disciplined, wear masks, wash their hands is almost impossible to believe how do you handle that from a public policy perspective?
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the flip side is, if the parents can't go to school, the parents have to stay home and you have a real conundrum in terms of trying to get the economy back on its footing >> look, i think i was an early advocate that kids should be able to go back to school assuming the parents understand the risks and the problem. we still don't know if they're big spreaders of this disease or not. we know that they don't suffer seriously from it, and that's probably a risk worth taking i do think we need to actually have a situation where they can go back to school. remember, you're then going to need the teachers in the schools. the teachers have to volunteer knowing they're taking risks, same thing with the administrators, the food service workers, et cetera you get a lot of immunity of
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kids getting exposed but parents have to understand the risks they would be taking in god for bid kids did get covid and bring it home. i think, again, this is part of the rational or thinking through of what are the risks worth taking can it be done on a voluntary basis where parents permit it recognizing there are some risks kids will bring covid home and everyone has to be isolated for 14 days. >> okay. dr. emmanuel, thank you. obviously we're going to have a lot more need of talking to you as we get closer and closer to see what's happening as we hear more of these plans. we appreciate your time and we look forward to talking to you soon. >> my pleasure, becky. take care. thank you. >> thank you you, too. when we return, a lot more on "squawk box" this morning coming up, we're going to talk to media mogul barry
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the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin u.s. equity futures at this hour are up about 18 points or so they were up quite a bit more than that earlier. they have pulled back and are basically unchanged after the big selloff yesterday. meantime, we have some breaking news right from the treasury department. steve liesman joins us with the latest now steve? >> andrew, thanks very much. the u.s. treasury secretary steve mnuchin speaking to the virtual imf and world bank meeting is going to say that the u.s. is committed to doing everything in our power to alleviate short-term economic distress he says there is an urgent need for all countries to act and
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deploy extraordinary fiscal and monetary actions interestingly he goes on to say, countries need to be ready to accelerate and expand these policies if needed now, some really interesting technical stuff that's going on among countries. the u.s. is supporting very strongly suspension of debt payments by the poorest countries through a process being run by the imf and the g20 and the paris club, but the issue that's being debated right now is something called a special allocation, a special drawing rights it's like the global central bank, the imf, printing money. that's something that was out there by the imf managing director, supported by george soros, bono, larry summers this would effectively give money to poor countries through the imf.
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steve mnuchin opposes this saying it is not an effective tool for meeting urgent needs. he goes on to say that 70% of any sdr allocation would go to advanced economies only 3% would go to the lowest income countries he does support, however, the ability of advanced countries to lend those sdrs and existing ones if they want. there's another back story to this, guys, there's a reuters story that one of the reasons the treasury opposes this is they don't want iran and china to be given money from the sdr without conditions that was first reported in a reuters story. we've been able to confirm that as one of the reasons. also, the treasury secretary making a pretty interesting comment that even if you do these sdr allocations, the money wouldn't get to the poorest countries. becky? >> steve, thank you very much.
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andrew thanks meantime, here to discuss the re-opening of the economy and the state of streaming, travel industry and what all of this means is barry diller. he's the chairman and executive of iac we're thrilled to have you join us, barry, this morning. nice to see you. >> nice to see you too i hope you're all well >> hope you're well. last time we saw you was in person in the fall when we had just redone our set. how do you see the landscape >> cataclysmic we're in something that's very hard to be objective about we're in the eye of it, inside of it. we can't really see it for what
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it is, but, look, everybody says the same thing there's nothing like it before and while we know some things, we know nothing about what's going to happen, how we're going to get out of it, what will have to change? will this be some really profound difference in people's lives in the future? so i see it as everybody's scared the fact that we have so much media, so much information all of it telling us that we've got to be scared about co-habitating with anyone so that ain't good. >> barry, let me ask you this though you bought expedia right after 9/11 you went through with that transaction even after 9/11. >> yeah.
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>> you believed that on the other side of it we were going to go back to normal >> i absolutely did. >> do you feel the same way about where we are right now >> no. what i said then was if there's life, there'stravel. i still do believe that, but this is not going to be what happened then. it was a very, very quick return to normalcy. that is not going to happen. at best we'll have kind of a rolling way out. as far as travel is concerned, while i'm absolutely optimistic that at some point, but i don't think soon, i don't think it's until probably september, october, november, december really get life back and in order to travel, you've got to have that so they're totally different. this is not analogous. i don't think it's analogous to
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anything certainly not analogous to 9/11 and to the financial crisis in '08. >> so given your ownership of expedia and how are you planning for that what are you telling your employees there? what do you expect the business to look like over the next 18 months >> what we're doing at expedia, somebody said no good crisis goes away, we're using the time to do the things we were not able to do when we were running 100 miles an hour to keep up with our growth. so we're really spending truly, you know, the quality time that we'd spend other than dealing with difficulties, particularly with travel.
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one day the door closes and, you know, if you've got a small business, you have nobody coming in and you've got no revenue well, travel, travel-related companies have no revenue. expedia like many large, large travel companies, has a very large cost basis we haven't dealt with that considerably, but what we're doing is we're doing planning inside the company so we are stronger than when we went into it that's all of the planning that basically we are doing >> what do you make of the bailouts of the airlines >> necessary full stop. look, you've got to bail everyone out this is like, you know, you say when you're picking winners, losers, you're saying this or that everybody is in the same
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position, which is the world stop, worldwide. and so anybody whose income -- and you see this you drive down streets and you see big cities, small cities and you see nothing is open. they're ghost towns. the damage that is being done every day is enormous. everybody needs to be bailed t out. we'll worry about paying the bills later. >> and when youthink about travel, for example, and the future of business, one of the things that's going to be so critical, we're hearing this from other ceos, testing maybe you'll get tested on your way into the plane so everyone knows everyone on the plane is okay given the travel is your
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business, who should pay for that >> pay for what? >> all of it, yeah >> it will be absorbed i think in the cost of business. but, you know, what has to happ happen, the fear has to stop the fear of associating with people plenty of friends of mine, i'm not going to go to the theater i'm not going to do this because i'm afraid right now people are saying even though we've been isolating for three weeks, you can't come over to my house, which is kind of nuts to me but the fear is the next thing that's going to thaw. whether you test people on the way in or whatever you do, at some point everybody has to be comfortable being a foot away from other people. if that fundamentally changes,
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then a huge amount of our infrastructure -- which i don't think will happen. >> barry, i just had a question about what you were saying about how people say, okay, even though you've been isolated for three weeks, you can't come over to my house. i think that goes to the fact that not everyone treats isolation or social distancing the same i know people who stay home but they go out to stores, go to restaurants, they have certain things they do that i wouldn't feel comfortable with. you're only as safe as your weakest link you can't tell or know what somebody else's standards are. >> yes, but you kind of have to get over it. you go into a theater and you're sitting literally within inches of people. you go in thinking that no one is going to come in with an
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enormous toxicity, whatever that is no one is going to come in who has some terrible communicable disease and sneeze on you. you kind of just trust in that we're all too frightened right now. we're gonna have to get over it or everything will change. >> hey, barry, wanted to pivot the conversation and talk about media and also the state of advertising given the iac business how do you see that? >> we're kind of the tale of two cities tale of two cities for me. on one hand i have iac, advertising, home services and all of that, you though, of course it's hurt son but it's ac i have people who want to go out
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and buy things that are very aggressive and think of this opportunity while on the other hand i have expedia which has no revenue so a bit of a weird constant imbalance as far as advertising is concerned, why would you -- i mean, at expedia, for instance, we spend $5 billion a year in advertising. we won't spend $1 billion in advertising probably this year you just rip that across everything, there you are. >> and so that's the travel industry the question is, how hard do you think it's going to hit other media businesses >> well, of course it's going to hit -- >> even some of the big --
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>> travel industry is a proxy. yes, there are some things that are worthwhile advertising during this period basics, things like that, which -- look, we haven't seen economically -- i mean, people -- why anybody is pouring over these first quarter numbers, clueless to me. the market can go up getting to the second quarter, you're going to see advertising across the boards. why would it sustain >> barry, you just said something very interesting, which is you didn't understand why the market could go up in this environment what do you think the fair value would be in this environment >> how the hell would i know no one knows these things, but
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when we see the damage that is being done everywhere, we'll see in the second quarter from the first quarter, how can you get fair value how can you get fair value for a company, you know, again, i absolutely believe a year, two from now this will be over one way or the other this is over or we're over how can you value that today i don't think you can do it. i certainly can't. >> in the media space you lived in for so long, netflix just passed disney in market cap. >> yeah. >> we've had lots of conversations about streaming and the future of big media. i'm wondering how you see all of this shake itself out and what the pandemic does to that whole space. >> well, i think streaming, it will have an effect on it for
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sure again, you go a few more months and while people say, one of the last things i'll cut is my subscription to entertainment which i desperately need to get through. that will take its toll. people will not have the discretionary income to afford it it doesn't change the dynamics of anything. you've got the competitors streaming is taking over the world. hollywood is irrelevant. the only companies that have a true path, absolute clear business model path forward have nothing to do with the history of the entertainment business. amazon and netflix everybody else, good luck to them they may be able to build services, but that world has changed forever. i think this pandemic has
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nothing to do with it other than earnings are going to be much less for a while >> right you talked about opportunities during this pandemic, there are people within iac thinking about that are there places that you imagine you might try to invest some money over the next 12 months >> oh, my god, yes look of course, there's opportunity you have to have a long view, be sure footed, you have to look at things not only as they are but as you think they will be. we're looking at some very large potential acquisitions for iab and, of course, it's the environment where if you are inquisitive, you're going to do the thing that for many years everybody has asked for. oh, my gosh, everything is other
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inflated, bay it for -- >> if you have capital it could be a better time than to exploit what is, you know, a terrible downfall for many companies. >> barry, we've often talked politics with you over the years, and i'm curious what you think is going to happen politically. you start to think about the enormous debt that we've taken on the questions about tax, corporate taxes. >> if you have plenty of capital and you don't have a huge cost base that you will service with no revenue, for sure, buy back your stock
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politically, i don't know, we currently have an administration as infomercial i don't know if whether in the end people say, please, no more than that. i'll take any alternative or whatever i can't -- of course i can't predict. i can predict. i think the infomercial administration ends in november, but as far as long term, the damage that's being done can't be assessed right now. it's going to have a huge political impact whether that tilts you this way or that way, i can't really tell this is not short term, the effects. >> barry diller, we appreciate you spending time with us this morning. it's always an education we are hoping you stay safe. >> thank you wish i could be less bleak
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i am very long term. thank you. >> okay. i'll talk to you soon. thanks so much becky? thanks when we come back, initial jobless claims that's a number that's become one of the strongest indicators of how the coronavirus is hurting the u.s. economy 5 million new filings are expected this morning. if we see a number higher than about 5.6 million, that would mean that all the job gains since the financial crisis have been wiped out in the space of a month. just tells you how quickly things are shutting down as we have the stay-at-home orders as we head to break, take a look at the shares of morgan stanley. missing estimates on the top and bottom line. ceo james gormon says liquidity remains strong stock down by 2 1/4 percent this morning. stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc
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blackrock out with its latest results a little bit earlier this morning the world's largest asset manager reporting earnings of revenue above expectations blackrock saw $35 billion of net in flows in what it calls the challenging times. the year-on-year profit fell 23%. we spoke with blackrock ceo and chairman larry fink earlier on the program. >> so the risk for the market today is the disease curve takes longer the risk for today is that we don't have americans and europeans feeling very comfortable with their
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environment and so that will be taking time. what i'm saying is i just don't see a rapid rebound. i see a rebound that is going to take time as we develop the testing, as we develop the antivirals before we develop a vaccination. >> fink did note that prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus the first quarter was shaping up to be one of blackrock's best ever when we come back, the latest jobless claims data we have millions of more filings expected unfortunately house minority leader kevin mccarthy will join us to talk about getting more money to american small businesses. the paycheck protection program will get closer to running out of money as we head to the break, take a look at the futures ahead of the key jobs number. coming up in under ten minutes at 8:30.
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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we're just a few seconds away from the initial jobless claims figures. we're awaiting all of these numbers and watching the futures. right now it looks like the dow is indicated up by 11 points we are higher this morning but it whittled away the gains as the market awaits on what are the rough numbers.
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the numbers are estimated to be 5 million for the last week. that comes after three weeks that totaled 16.6 million jobless claims this is the key number that wall street has been watching and awaiting again, it looks like right now the dow futures are up by 15 the s&p up by 6. the nasdaq up by 67. let's get over to rick santelli. standing by at the cme in chicago. rick >> reporter: well, becky, let's see. they're all coming out at once initial jobless claims up 5,245,000. continuing claims rocketing up to 11,976,000. i'll repeat that 11,976,000 now let's go to housing starts they are down over 20% at 1.216 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, and if you look at what's going on with the
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permit side, they're down almost 7% at 1,353,000. and of course both of those numbers are actually in the neighborhood of expectations actually, permits were a little more than expected and starts were a little bit less than expected let's put a face on this, shall we if you look at january starts at 1.624 million and permits of 1.5 million, becky, both of those numbers were the best in years philly, the reason philly's interesting is this is an april read and, actually, i don't have it out yet don't see it on my system. i'm going to do a push on philly what are interest rates doing? 61 basis points on a 10-year about where it was it was at 60 basis points. history there. 54 basis points is the all-time
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low yield close. 30-year bonds, 99 basis points low yield close. here's an oddity if you look at boon yields, all-time yield closes at minus 85 hovering around minus 84 they're lower than the all time close. they're in negative territory. it is a different scenario with europe and the central bank in a much different situation than ours becky and the gang, back to you. >> all right, rick stay right here. we have a lot more to talk about. it's worth pointing out that even though the numbers are horrible numbers, they're not that much worse than the street had been expecting we have seen the futures pick up pretty significantly we went from the dow picking up from 15 points to now up 100 points above fair value. 5.24 million is the number of initial numbers. the street was looking at 5 million. in weeks past we had seen much
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worse numbers than the estimates had been almost a sigh of relief. let's get reaction from our expert panel joining us is austan goolsbee. he's university of chicago booth school professor michael strain is with us. economic policy studies director and david balin at citi private back our own diana olick and steve liesman is with us as well steve, let's get to you as well. your take on the numbers you had been looking for lousy numbers. here you go, you got them. >> reporter: yeah. astonishing. we talked about this with the panel, the market rallying on what are absolutely atrocious numbers here i got the philly fed index, which is down 56 if you are looking for a bright spot here, it's not down as much as the empire state was yesterday, which was down 78 prices paid falling suggesting inflationary impulse
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expectations also negative minus 30 employment down 46 new orders down 70 it's justone awful, terrible number after another able to do some quick calculations here. if i take the total of 22 million jobless claims over the past month or so since the 21st of march, you have an unemployment rate, potential unemployment rate, somewhere between 12 and 20% depending on how much of that moves over from unemployment claims into actual unemployment at the high side you'd be around 19%. in the middle at 15% unemployment rate right now. the housing starts, becky, also all over the map, but -- i'm sorry, what i meant, all geography, all four sectors of the united states down, biggest drop in the northeast. trouble with what's happening with housing is that housing is supposed to be a major way that
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lower fed interest rates get into the economy so you are not getting one key interest rate sector being helped by low interest rates and that's a problem for the conduct of monetary policy the fed may have to deal with this another way. becky? >> steve, stay with uses a we-- as well. >> reporter: let's go to dye than olick. >> reporter: these are worse than at the start especially on the permits. i don't think we have to say these are going to surprise to the down side more they're going to get worse than april. the worst of all of this shutdown is at the end of march, early april. when we see the numbers now, they're back to single family especially, 856,000 starts we're back to where we were last summer believe it or not, that's still 2.8% higher than one year ago. housing starts at this point will pull back a lot more in
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april and may, but when people start comparing this to the subprime mortgage crisis and the housing crash that ensued there, you saw housing starts plummet over four years to the lowest levels at 300,000 starts for single family. we're not going to get anywhere near that. the reason is, we don't have the same kind of housing market that we had back then we had a housing market back then that was completely over built. we were at 2 million units back in 2006. nobody needed that many homes. right now we have a lack of homes. we have a severe shortage of homes for sale on the existing side and we're not even back to where we should be normally in single family construction if you look at household formation before all of this started before the pandemic, we were 350,000 units short we're going to see the numbers start to come down even more over the next couple of months you saw builder sentiment drop dramatically, historic drop at
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30 50 is considered significant you'll see the numbers come back towards the end of the year when the economy starts moving, most analysts and i believe as well say that housing is going to pull us back, is going to be a driver of economic recovery simply because there's so much demand for it. becky? >> all right diana, thank you let's get to the rest of the panel, too austan, your thoughts both on the housing starts number but also the jobless claims number that came in >> you know, all those numbers sound gruesome to me this is from march where almost two weeks weresupposed to be semi normal. it feels like that we have answered today the question for unemployment was there just going to be a backlog of people who had not yet processed through the system or are there still millions of people continuing to lose their jobs.
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i think with a number like this it means people are continuing to lose their jobs >> is there an end in sight, austan as you start talking about opening the country again, opening the country for business look, it may not all open at one time we may be talking about gradually. do you think things start to look up a week from now, a month from now, two months from now? what's your best take? >> reporter: you know, if we don't do the testing, which the business leaders that advise the president yesterday said before we open we've got to do a lot more testing >> we have models for countries not in lockdown. korea is not in lockdown, iceland, new zee land, now germany. you do enough testing so that the only people who have to go out of commission are the people who get the disease, that's the
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way forward. i can't understand why we're not talking about that we're just pressing ahead, it feels like, to say, well, let's just all go back out these march numbers, we have record lows for retail sales that came in yesterday we've got awful housing numbers. we've got awful unemployment numbers. they should be sobering to anybody who says we shus just reopen much of that happened before there were any shutdowns they show you that the reason the economy is going into shutdown mode because people are afraid of getting the virus and you have to do testing and you have to do prevention if you want to get out of lockdown. >> michael, what's the aai perspective on that? >> well, there is a lot of mixed views at aai my perspective is this is
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terrible you know, i think you could try and put a positive spin on this and say a smaller number of initial claims suggests that there may have been a big wave of initial layoffs when the shutdown orders happened and maybe we're over that hump nowhere a nowhere at a reasonable level, even for an economic calamity. this is really bad this suggests the need to have policies in place that can keep workers attached to their employers and they can allow for employers to quickly hire back workers. of course, the paycheck protection program attempts to do that. it's running out of money. that is a scandal that congress can't just appropriate some additional funding for that. that program is structured to stem these losses.
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i began my remarks with some good news. there may, of course, be bad news these are initial claims for unemployment insurance for people who are successful at processing that claim. a lot of state ui systems are really overwhelmed right now so the actual number of people who are trying to get unemployment benefits may be much, much higher than -- you know, several million higher than what we've seen over the last three or four weeks. so we just, you know, desperately need public policy to step up here and try and do t it and so when we do reopen, i hope relatively soon, at least begin the process of reopening, the unemployment rate doesn't need to come down 20 percentage points because it didn't get that high in the first place >> david, let's talk about how long you think this is going to last we've got a couple of voices on the show this morning, important voices who really understand what's happening beneath the
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surface, larry fink and barry diller barry diller talked about how at expedia they traditionally will spend $5 billion on advertising. this year he says they'll spend less than $1 billion that ripples through the rest of the economy. how long do you see this playing out? how long do you see this lasting? >> well, i think what barry diller and larry fink said is exactly right, which is we're talking about a period of time between now and when that vaccine becomes widely available. that could be anywhere from 18 to 24 months in between now, we don't have effective treatments for the disease and all of the testing and tracking the question you're asking, becky, to the degree the markets actually have baked this in, right? we're going -- citi private bank thinks we're going to end up with an unemployment rate of 20, 25% for a brief period of time
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and the question is how fast does that come back? we recently ran a model looking at this data and it takes 9 quarters to get back to where we were in the first quarter this year, 2020, of gdp quite a bit of runway from here to there the thing that gives us confidence that we can get back to that very slowly is the amount of money the government is pumping in to benefits for individuals and also the fact that the testing and the tracking we're talking about actually takes place so i think the market is actually, you know, in one sense being a little bit too generous in our ability to do things now. and there is a finite end once the vaccine is created and delivered. those are the two things taking place in the market right now. i would argue it's a bit optimistic right now in terms of what's actually priced into the market >> david, austan, michael,
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diane, rick, steve, want to thank you all for your time. pretty important numbers and great instant analysis joe? >> thanks, beck. coming up, an update on the struggle that you just heard eluded to, the ppp, getting more money there. getting billions of additional dollars to american small businesses before crucial government program runs dry. as we head to break, we'll talk to leader mccarthy take a look at shares of united airlines company cutting its may flight schedule by 90% saying travel demand has essentially shrunk to zero and worrying about it stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc
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nasdaq up 86 points. s&p 500 up 13 points meanwhile, we want to get over to cnbc's headquarters where jim cramer joins us now. what did you make of the number, jim? >> in line from what people are thinking i'm still reeling from barry diller who came on and told what i wish everybody would tell, which is the truth about how they feel, which is that, geez, things are not good. you have to do whatever is necessary. i thought that he was the most poignant of all the guests i don't mean to sleight larry fink we've all been real about what's going on out there i remember barry since 1979. here's a guy who can't help but call it straight and it is chilling it's chilling because what he says is the country has shut down you can do whatever you want you can open it, say you want to open it, doesn't matter. it's shut down that was incredibly sober and
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realistic, not pessimistic good interview. >> let me ask you a question, jim. given the comments that barry made and larry made as well, you look at the markets. it was a question i asked barry. what is fair value for the markets given the risks -- >> andrew, there is no fair measure. >> right >> when he said that. >> he said, what the hell do i know >> what the hell do i know only a guy who has been so accomplished and is so worldly and, yes, so wealthy could be so kind as to be objective about that to say how do i know? 1,000 people at home, there's been so much money thrown at this market and i think it has to be thrown at it it just does act as a put, that is true. so every time you want to get really negative, say tonight -- let's say leader mccarthy gets
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together with speaker pelosi and secretary mnuchin and they give you another $2 trillion, well, i mean, if you were betting against the market and another 2 trillion comes in, what that means is we have to keep everybody open until we get a vaccine. we may not have a vaccine for 18 months, two years, we don't get a vaccine at all in the interim we get herd immunity so this doesn't kill us all. what's going on existentially, an be drew, there's becoming a consensus that despite what we're hearing about a flattening, everybody is going to get it. some are going to live, some are going to die that's where people ruminate at home that's what brian moynihan talks about. call it physical distancing. you're ruminating. i don't want to die. not i don't want to go out, i don't want to die. we have to change that discourse. that's what barry was saying are we kidding what are we talking about? it's just russian roulette
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we have to get it out of russian roulette i'm willing to go to the game and be willing to get sick getting sick and not dieing. we have to take dieing off the table. >> take dieing off the table until we get the drugs though, i'm not sure we can take i'm not sure >> we have a mortality rate of 9% yesterday it made me think, hey, spanish flu, we have nothing on you. but then now it's spanish flu, we're worse than you and 9% mortality rate. that's extraordinary 4% is extraordinary. let me give you about how carnival cruise -- they're doing great. maybe they shouldn't even have cruises. maybe we shouldn't have them >> jim, we will see you in a couple minutes you mentioned kevin mccarthy we have him on the other side of this commercial break. thank you. we'll see you on "squawk on the street" in a minute. at 9:30 eastern time, don't miss a first on cnbc interview, morgan stanley ceo james gormen
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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we have been watching the futures. after the jobless claims came in with a better than -- not a better than expected number, a number that was just about as lousy as the markets had been anticipating, 5.4 million jobs lost versus the estimates of about 5 million. it looks like the market is up by about 42 points in our headline headlines, veris agreed to buy blue jeans network. this is a rival to zoom. verizon is going to pay less than $500 million for the company. that comes amid a surge in the use of video conferencing by
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businesses, schools, and others. verizon will be on "squawk on the street." >> jobless claims for the week ending last saturday coming in at about 5.25 million. in the last month, we wiped out almost 22 million jobs or 22 million plus since the financial crisis that all that we gained, in fact, since then. the data comes as aid for small businesses could be drying up, just as it's needed the most a new opinion piece for the "wall street journal," our next guest says there's no time to waste in getting more money into the government's payment protection program joining us now, house minority leader kevin mccarthy. and that wasn't the title of it. i think the title is democrats want to gum up payroll protection what really happened really not asking for anything other than what was already negotiated in the cares package, but now they want to renegotiate that is that your contention, leader? >> well, the contention is just last week, we watched -- we
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asked for another $250 billion the question is why. because we had more than 1.6 million loans. that's 1.6 million small businesses who got money $338 billion is already set. that means less than about 3% to go by the time we're done with this interview, we may be out of money. wee not asking to change anything in the cares act, just something that actually works. add more money to it so people stay employed. 75% of that money actually goes to keeping people employed in your small business, people that you know, keeping them alive and working. but as we ask for more money, the democrats said no, it could have passed by a simple unanimous consent. it was one page in the senate. they said no here we are about to run out of money today, and nancy pelosi will still hold it back. i don't understand why we just got 5 million more reasons why this should stop this morning and this is about keeping people employed this is about keeping people
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liquidity for the next couple months as we continue to move through our current crisis >> you have been there a while, leader what's behind -- what's behind the whatever you want to call it, the positioning, the negotiati negotiating, what do schumer and pelosi really want >> you know, the last time we sat to put the cares act together, we had about done, but it was almost a week delayed because there's things they want things that don't deal with the virus. a green new deal, sanctuary cities, even getting to planned parenthood, changing election law for november you know, there's time to debate that, but right now, people are being laid off here's a program that there's almost 5,000 banks, it's your community bank, it's your credit union, even fintech. this is going to small businesses it's actually a grant. if you use 75% of it to pay your employees, even if they're already laid off, that's a grant to you the rent, the utilities, it
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keeps you alive. look, i started my first business when i was 20 i could not survive today in the climate we're in i had an individual text me last night, a small business that has been in my community, that is actually an ambulance company. she called me almost in tears thanking me that she's not going to lay anybody off and she's going to stay afloat for when the 911 call comrs in that they're going to have somebody for them this is what's happening, but right now, democrats are playing politics there's no need for politics, no policy changes what they're even requesting is making it harder on the small business to get the loan they want more data from you we brought this down to two pages. it's not a time to argue it's a time to provide the resources needed to keep you afloat and keep you hired. >> and what do they say about what the republicans -- they say the republicans are playing politics what's their contention that you're trying to do? >> i don't know because i'm not
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requesting for anything else i'm not requesting to change the bill all i'm saying is you have a program in the bill that's about to run out of money. put more money in it if there's another element that needs more money, there's not. nobody else is running out of any elements within the cares act. if it is, i'll increase it if it's needed but i don't think you even have to call anybody back here. you could do it by unanimous consent. i said on the republican side we would do that. it just took the democrats to object, saying they need something more i don't know what more you need when you see 5 million more, 22 million reasons why we should not play politics right now. i'm willing to work together just as when we did our second bill and the wording was not correct, i let the bill move forward. and that we would change it on monday because i think putting people before politics is this is the moment in time we should do that put the politics aside yes, fancy pelosi and i disagree philosophically on a lot of things but i can't believe we could disagree on this here's a program that 1.6
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million small businesses just got. yes. >> leader, let's just quickly tell me what is your opinion on what to do with w.h.o. funding is it suspended? will the president -- is he like he does in so many cases where he wants some change in behavior and then eventually maybe it's not defunded do you think it should be? is it more about the current leader of the w.h.o. and do you agree with some critics that say this is the wrong time even if there were mistakes made, this is the wrong time to defund or stop funding the w.h.o.? >> i think what the president is doing bringing attention we now have somebody running the w.h.o. who is the first nonphysician someone who told us in january that it doesn't transmit between humans an individual that allowed them to continue to travel in different places around the world. what did that mean i mean, if they are going to be the mouthpiece of china, i think
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there are fabulous people in w.h.o., but why don't they look and change their own direction what the president is doing is bringing attention to it so we're safer around the world the deception of china has directly led to american deaths. what's interesting to me is what media wants to glob on and try to attack the president when he's trying to make us safer and bring attention to everything. what's interesting too is china has almost a billion more people and pays 10% of what we pay. >> we're out of time but thank you, and we hope to see you again soon that does it for us. now bewe're going to toss it ov to "squawk on the street." see you tomorrow >> good thursday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber this morning, james gorman and verizon's hans vesbrg, as futures are steady philly fed lowest sinc
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