production in the seattle area as early as monday it is friday, april 17, 2020 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning good to see you all. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at equity futures futures are trading incredibly higher this is all about that gilead report we heard. news coming out of a university of chicago study we'll talk about it more it saw a rapid recovery of most of the 125 patients in that study. 113 had severe disease many of them walked out or left the hospital after six days, which is incredibly impressive a lot of people have been talking about this study that's the reason you are seeing futures up if you can get a therapeutic

drug that meant people weren't dying of this. in the study, only two people died no placebo up against the remdesivir they were using these are early results but promising signs of hope. the dow futures indicated up by about 700 points if we continue like this, that would put the dow in positive t territory. s&p indicated up about 75 points and the nasdaq indicated up by about 177. let's look at the treasury market yesterday, those yields for the 10-year were under a little pressure they had come back down even more we were talking about under 0.7% looking now at the 10-year treasury, you will see on this friday, last trading day of the week, the 10-year is yielding

0.64%. looking at oil and the shut down of oil production and cuts of the number of barrels being produced a day around the globe, you did see prices come back down it is not enough to keep up with the dropping demand. watching that too. this morning, wti is down to 18.61 a barrel we'll be talking markets, potential medical breakthroughs and reopening the economy. we have the ceo of the mayo clinic on promising news they've seen we'll talk to mohammad about how this plays out in the markets and new york fed president and legendary investor all coming up in the next three hours. joe?

>> i'm glad we have three hours. i really don't have a whole lot planned today. gives me something to do, right. >> or any day. >> what are we going to do tomorrow i'm going to sleep tomorrow. china is out with the first quarter gdp overnight. reporting a contraction of 6.8%, the world's second largest economy. took a hit you know why the first decline of the government's gdp since at least 1992 i like when they say. >> that are we really that sure even today we'll get a live report from beijing in the next half hour. we've got an update now as well on the pandemic and the numbers as we bring them to you.

worldwide cases at 2.1 numbers with wuhan adding 325 cases. the explanation from china state-run media meant early medical shortages meant more people died at home and data was missing. cases in the u.s. have now reached 671,000 including 223,000 cases in new york city death toll on thursday was more than 4,500 people, nearly double the previous record set on wednesday. joe? president trump outlined in federal guidelines for reopening the country. urging governors to make the decisions. eamon javers with us put a lot of thought into this

wasn't really quite sure -- i wasn't that happy that gyms are going to reopen right away i've been enjoying but gyms don't feel like a place you want to necessarily open quickly but i guess if you keep social distancing and keep everything clean, it works i guess the phases and what is involved did you watch the press conference >> absolutely. you'll be more disappointed to learn that gyms are reopening before the bars are reopening. so that's to the down side for people look, the president backed away. remember the assertion where the president said he had absolute authority to order the governors to reopen. now he's saying this is a decision he'll leave to the governors. they rolled out this series of

guidelines the president explained why he feels the country has to get back to business here is what he said >> the national shutdown is not a sustainable long-term solution to preserve the health of our citizens, we must also preserve the health and functioning of our economy. over the long haul, you can't do one without the other. cannot be done >> so here are the phases you are talking about. starting with phase 1, the gyms, large venues and elective surgeries. once states hit certain medical criteria and their governor decides it is okay to move forward. phase 2, that's where schools come into play and the bars, nonessential travel. phase 3, you can talk about visits to senior citizens,

staffing and occupancy can increase joe, we'll be dealing with all of these new lifestyles we've levelled social distancing, tele working and protections for the vulnerable will be on the menu for a long time to come. it is not clear when any of these can start. the president didn't give a specific date for any state. he did say hethinks a lot of states are in a good position now and can begin opening as soon as today. we'll see what happens as governors make their own decisions. >> governor cuomo and five or six others on the east coast went to may 15 which is a long way off, eamon i wonder if there is any wiggle room i don't even think the stock market liked that that much. we never know cause and effect

that seemed like a little bit of -- people were thinking may 1. i don't know if we were really thinking may 1 for anywhere around here. but may 15 is like another month, eamon >> well, look, and it is going to depend on the schools you can't get the majority of the workforce at home if kids are not in school. parents won't be able to leave the house. that school decision is important. it is fascinating you are seeing this break up of the country in three areas where you have the west coast governors, the east coast governors led by governor cuomo deciding to move in concert. yesterday, we saw this additional announcement of midwestern government coalition. the federal government is not telling everybody what to do but the reeg follgional governors h

decided to work together on this because they don't want uneven rules across state lines and people crossing state lines for different benefits maybe the gyms or bars, which ever are open. >> i know. i need to. i just don't want to in terms of the gym. >> the bar or the gym? >> eamon, thank you. i can self-medicate here i don't need to go out for that. i guess i could exercise here but see, when i got married. you can stop dating, stop exercising but that wasn't the case >> you are tv, joe you are on tv every day. look out >> kind of >> guys, when we come back, we'll talk about stocks set to surge after the report of the positive trial of the gilead drug remdesivir to try to fight covid-19 dr. scott gottlieb will join us

with his take and talk about the states and what he sees happening from here and the plan to reopen the country. u.s. futures are sharply higher because of the gilead news and remdesivir dow up 692 points. look at shares of apple. that stock downgraded to a sell by goldman sachs they are now expecting a deeper reduction in product demand to 2020 and shallow recovery in early 2021 they expect services growth to slow substantially in 2021 all of that led to a price argue et of 230. apple shares $289.

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welcome back gilead shares are surging as is the market on this report saying a clinical trial of the company's drug remdesivir, we've talked a lot about it, what they are saying is seeing rapid recovery of fever and respiratory systems and nearly all patients discharged in less

than a week. if proven effective, it could be the first approved treatment for covid-19 >> caller: i did interview a patient who participated in the study. he lives in chicago. he was short of breath, all the classic symptoms what he told me, he started feeling like a day after getting remdesivir he was in the hospital for four days he got four days worth of treatment with remdesivir and he was discharged >> joining us now to talk more about this and everything else since we talk to him so often, dr. scott gottlieb, former fda commissioner good morning to you. the market is rocketing on this news as is gilead's stock

itself gilead put out a statement that this is annual anecdote al evidence and we need to wait for final report and studies to come in i mention why this is so important, we had conflicting news out of china where it appeared they had stopped the study. a lot of the investment community and the world is trying to understand what is really happening here. >> china stopped the studies because they couldn't enroll them because they couldn't stop enrolling cases. the chinese doctors were trying to use remdesivir. they did have some indication the drug was promising, or they wouldn't be trying to reach for it this is one of the growing number of data sets that suggests remdesivir is an active drug it is not a slam dunk. there were two deaths in this

study. most of these had severe disease, so they were at higher risk and a lot did recover according to that report it looks like the drug is active we said many time on the show. my hunch is that it is going to worker i it is not a slam dunk by any means. i don't think it is a cure but when used early, it is a good anti-viral and a good first generation anti-viral against covid-19 and something we might have available by the fall coupling with the anti-virus that could be used against covid-19 >> let me ask you, this is something you have to take at a hospital it is actually injected. when you say get at it early it appears most of the people

taking it were already on oxygen or ventilator. is this something people could take even earlier than that? >> that's right. if it works, it will probably be most effective when used earlier in the course. when patients first have covid-19 and are admitted. if they have risk factors that will predict a bad outcome, they'll get a dose when admitted get it in early. sometimes once the virus has been able to rep kalicate, simpy arresting viral load at that point doesn't have a strong as a therapeutic effect that's how we use, for example, tamiflu. you want to take it early for

the maximum benefit. other studies with this drug looking at milder patients looking at introducing it earlier. we need to remember, if this drug does work, and there are suggestions it is active against this disease it was used with ebola as well if it does work, i don't think this is a cure i don't think this is going to be the one-drug answer to this disease but it can change and mitigate the worst outcome for some patients. >> scott, as you point out it might be in combination with a monocronal antibody drug like with ebola i think the anti-body drug that was used after we have safety profiles.

you've never really poopooed remdesivir rightly so, the mechanism is so understandable it should work it is an analog and disrupts the rna dependent, rna preliminary it should work i don't know why people weren't more positive all along about remdesivir >> i wrote about five drugs -- two weeks ago, i wrote about the five drugs i thought would be the most promise being available in the fall and change the risk profile for the disease. the five drugs i called out was remdesivir and those being developed by amgen and others. and more and more can be available in the fall. you couple those early in the disease. that is pretty robust that can

change the profile of the risk of this disease. people thinking that remdesivir could pull through here. we have a big safety data against ebola. it wasn't effective against ebola or as effective as other drugs. one was a they arapeutic antibo. >> you can't do this off label right now. how quickly could you get this prescribable or do you do them all as part of a test >> there is a broader data set available now that will be made public within days or a couple of weeks including upwards of

400 patients that combined with the compassionate use data the rigorous study being conducted by the national institute of health, that is enough data to authorize this drug under an emergency-use authoritization. you could see this be available in under a month if that data set continues to show good top-line results we understand the safety profile fairly well. now that the study is under way, the food and drug administration will be under way. knowing that study is fully enrolled might read out. >> doctor, the question i keep seeing on line and dr. doctors and reports. i'm curious where you land this idea there could

belong-term damage to your lungs and other parts of your body as a result of this virus even if you make it through to the other side can you speak to that? how does that work is there long-term darth is it about the severity of how the virus overtakes? >> it depends. you you are seeing after prolonged bought of critical care we are learning that this virus is a nasty buck causing throbotic events it could be the case where patients were doing okay and suddenly require intubation in the hospital might have been due to blood clots to the lung we weren't looking for those early on

the proet callerly on was to keep distance. now they are finding a lot of patients have blood clots. and now more of these being given blood thinners in the hospital we are learning about what this virus does that is a-typical for a virus causing a downward spiral for a lot of patients >> dr. gottlieb, you've heard the president's plans and saying some states could be ready to open today and making sure some states don't have different rules like new york, new jersey, connecticut. when do you think we'll feel better or alternative see a second wave?

>> it is not a buyon arie event, you could see some states less effective, a more rural state. some states have banned lawn care and outdoor types of services they might bring those back. those are low risk certain construction activity. some states have already allowed that in connecticut, there is that activity going on. you could start to see some activity start to come back. by and large, very effective states, particularly in the tri-state area, will look to returning to business activity in mid-may you want to see a sustained reduction of cases and wait two weeks. that will be mid-may you'll see variability across the country. it will be a gradual process

where you bring back certain activity wait a week or two to see an upswing of cases data from visits to emergency room and things like that. then you might bring back additional activity and put certain restrictions to reduce contact. you'll have to check patients, workers as they come in. fever checks, questionnaires you can't bring back everybody at once. people of a certain age will be told to stay home longer one thing i was curious about the recommendations, i think the states are unlikely to follow is the guidance that would permit gyms and in-door events to open. sporting events. i think states will be

circumvent to bring those back after they've brought back workers. >> okay. dr. scott gottlieb, thank you, as always for your in sight and perspective. it helps us a lot trying to understand what is going on. coming up, boeg shares aing the rise it will start production at some factories. i thought it said monday in seattle anyway. some images of the pandemic impact across america yesterday. stay with us

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monday that is sending the stock higher in the pre-market. phil has more. >> good morning. it has been more than a month since boeing suspended in seattle because of the safety protocols. the state said, look, because of everything going on with covid-19, we are going to have a number of companies, not just boeing, reassess whether people should be going into manufacturing facilities they'll be restarting production on a staggered basis starting on monday they'll bring back workers this is important because this is one of four key issues facing boeing now when to get the plants back up and request about production cuts staffing cuts. over the next couple of months, does boeing announce something like that. one question out there does it take government aid or

pursue private loans the big question here are the terms from the guidance department that will be more of a decision then the big question out there, 737 max certification, do they still believe they'll get this plane ungrounded order book a little over 500 planes this impacts 20% of boeings' production book. bo boeing reports first quarter earnings on april 29 one of the questions answered is immediately getting back up and running in the puget sound area.

we say see the same thing in south carolina with respect to safety protocol, that could be coming in the next week or two. >> phil, with the airlines and probably around the globe in so many trouble, they are probably all looking to cut their costs what does that mean for the potential for boeing's order book from here >> that gets to question two, do you cut the production rate because of the number of airlines that may defer or cancel a big part of their order book are from leasing companies over the past 10 years, we'd be at shows and hear people say, we

ordered all these planes these are not going to happen. don't be surprise if we see boeing say, okay, we are going to take our current production rates and reduce them, let's say, over the next several years as they try to right size production by the way, we are already seeing that from airbus. this is not just a boeing issue. it is the industry overall >> phil, thank you good to see you. folks, when we come back, facebook shares are rising this morning. ceo mark zuckerberg said yesterday, employees will be allowed to work from home through the summer the company will not host any large events until at least july 2021 we'll talk tech stocks after the break. last i saw, we were looking at oil trading at $18 and cnghae. a decline of about 6%.

stick around, "squawk box" will be right back. because they're here. working day in, day out. at&t is here. providing support with advanced services for first responders. and connected temporary hospitals, mobile testing sites and emergency management centers. because until their job is done, it is essential that we all have their backs. it's what we've always done. it's what we'll always do.

good morning, everybody. take a look at u.s. equity futures. we have seen a surge in the futures. with the dow futures indicated up sharply up 700, even up over 800 overnight. much coming from the news that the gilead drug, remdesivir has

seen success in a trial taking place at the university of chicago. these results are not finalized. there has been word from the company saying we should wait for the final word on this but still there is hope for a drug that could help has brought the dow futures up to about 750 points, s&p up about 81 and nasdaq up around 184 if this continues, you will see the three averages up higher faang stocks up rising sharply the group has outperformed the rest of the market up at least 17% for the month of march. with us agagene muenster. i think you have to break down and see which make the most

sense. amazon makes the most sense. this morning, we've seen appledo appledown -- apple downgraded. >> for the broader sector, it is very clear that there is a divergence here between the winners and the losers in the bigger faang stocks. ultimately, we've seen these large cap companies with leadership roles there has been discussion that the large cap tech will see greater compliance, greater government regulation. i don't think that's the story i think you'll see these as reliable and leaders on the other side i'm curious about your

perspective. when you hear about government regulation, does the thought ever cross your mind that these companies will be better on the other side of this >> potentially it depends on the company. we talked to barry dillar the other day talking about expedia. in terms of advertising. normally they'd speed $5 billion. it will be less than $1 billion this year. you have to wonder the impact on facebook or alphabet alphabet saying they are not going to be hiring this year what is your take on just less advertising dollars? >> there are more and better risk here. the split on faang performers is important. absolutely agree that faang has

a leadership roll be. but look atom z amazon and appl. what investors should take away first is the concept that big tech should take a leadership role regardless of if it is amazon, google, facebook or apple. the concept that there will be even bigger winners. if you look at what apple is doing around wellness and 5g the bigger picture, tim cook's comments he talked about making decision for the long term. that is code that they'll have some ugly earnings here when they report the march quarter. if you look at what they are

spending on retail alone, that could have a negative 5% or 10% on the quarter as they continue to pay those employees they are continuing to invest in products you've seen the cadence with the most recent iphone se. companies like apple are laying the groundwork to grow over the next 5, 10, 15 years to put this into context, the companies making the right decisions now, those companies with the strongest balance sheets will outperform the most. i think you can build a strong case that apple as a $525 stock. with earnings growing over 15 years put a multiple on that, there is a lot of growth there

these tech companies, apple and amazon, will play a leadership role for years >> gene, are there stocks you wouldn't buy now or load up on apple and amazon more >> i would say apple more and amazon they are all great earnings. that is significantly greater longer term than amazon. the two i would be a little more nervous about of those big tech names are companies like facebook longer term mark zuckerberg is well intent but they are not changing the world like apple or amazon is. the second is netflix. they've had a great run here

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dow down at 1876

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i'm so small said the mole. yes said the boy, but you make a huge difference. ♪ ♪ ♪ the pga of america announcing a fund to help those in the golf industry weather the effects of the coronavirus shutdown raising more than $10 million so far applications for funds began yesterday. joining us now for more, a

familiar name, familiar face seth wah, ceo of pga of america. you know, seth, you've got the dream job. i don't need this, ceo of deutsch bank of the americas you know, the financial crisis, who needs this i'm going to go get this curby job at the pga of america. what could go wrong? meanwhile, we're all affected by this this is great what you're doing. talk about all of the differe different -- 1.8 million people. golf courses are shut down don't understand completely why that makes sense we have to stay in place obviously. we don't think of all of the people associated with that industry that aren't getting a paycheck now either. >> you're right, joe first of all, good morning thanks for having us on. it's an $85 billion business with almost 2 million people in it golf is so much more than a game we're a health club, we're a park, we're a restaurant, we're a bar, we're a community and,

you know, there is just, as you say, so much pain out there. and the cure here is so much different than the other crises you and i lived through, 9/11, the financial crisis where we're trying to create activity. now we're committing economic suicide, right so we started from the beginning trying to figure out how to get everybody to the other side. i think the government has done amazing work on a lot of the programs the fed's moves last week were stunning we wanted to create another safety net to get everybody to the other side we run some of the biggest championships in the world what we do every day is we're the largest sports organization on earth with 29,000 embers. they're suffering, right as is everybody else in the game so we wanted to put together something specific for golf to try and help this great game as you say, we are a walk in the

park we hope we're one of those activities that comes back very quickly at the end we think we have natural benefits with, you know, natural social distancing. even if you had 100 people on 200 acres, there's obviously plenty of room to do that. being prepared to come back and getting everybody to the other side is what it's all about. we put together a fund that is golf helping golf. we put up 5 million initial, 2.5 million match. we have a lot of support from other allies in the industry we hope to create, you know, a lot of demand for it we have an outside provider, 4e, who is going to manage it for us we opened yesterday and had overwhelming demand. as you can expect, there's lots of need. we're out there trying to do the best we can for -- again, to get

everybody to the other side. >> i'm hearing most of what you're saying through skype. i'm not sure about skype, seth we have a lot of audio issues with skype, but that's an independent third party charity. did you talk about the two different phases 500 to 1500 for people and then several weeks later a second phase with grants topping 3500 and you're still in the process of trying to get to 10 million, right? >> yeah. we've pledged 7.5. we've got some real support from other of our allies and we're pretty convinced we'll get to 10 and hopefully beyond we'd love to turn our 7.5 into 20 as you say, the first phase is kind of immediate needs, short form you apply. you can get up to $1500 cash kind of an immediate injection we're having a second phase which is the longer term media where you can get $3500.

that will take a little while longer we opened up yesterday it was overwhelming kind of need and so we are excited about all of this. and, you know, as you said, we've got an outside provider. they're handling the whole thing. if you wanted to give to it, relief.golf is the way you can look it up we'd love every bit of help that we possibly can get obviously. there's so much goods going on watching your program whether it's fanatics, other efforts trying to help various constituents now we have golf specific. if you care about the game, please think about all those core workers there that are out of a job as i said earlier, we have almost 2 million workers in the industry we think it's over 1 million are either out of work or severely affected here, so it's a big

population that we're trying to get at and to help. >> that's awesome. seth, before we let you go i know when the masters is for some reason. last -- you made the switch and i thought it was very successful for the fourth major for the pga, just put it in a different place. when is that going to be things are all messedup. what's the schedule? >> ironically, it's back to the future we're in august. we're in the first week of august in hardin park in san francisco. it was a great process, joe. you'd be proud of the room i know how much you love the game jay monahan at the tour -- >> doesn't love me, seth >> it will when you get back i think this break is going to do you good. practice in front of the mirror. but we are in august and we're hoping that, you know, we can get the game going on the tour here in the next, you know, call it early june, mid june and then

roll out -- have a relatively normal season if we can get going in june and end in november at the masters. we've got the ryder cup in september. i know everybody's got the joneses to get back out and play, but we're also watching it so hopefully we can get it done. i hope it's good for the fans, but we're fully prepared to go without them and try to create some content. >> still stinging from that. i might have been able to play in that ryder cup. i was thinking about, seth, social distancing from my caddy. he's nowhere near me off looking in the woods half of the time. that's a different issue seth, thank you and thanks for doing this we appreciate it and look forward, like everyone, to getting back to some type of normalcy seems like golf might be one way to do it with the advantages you mentioned. thanks for coming on appreciate it. >> thanks for all of your support. >> okay.

you're welcome beck good morning, everybody. it is just after 7 a.m. on the east coast u.s. equities are sharply higher the dow is now indicated up by more than 760 points good news on a potential therapeutic, remdesivir from gilead we have earnings out from dow component procter & gamble the numbers are good earnings per share better than expected 1.17 versus 1.13 revenues came in at 17 point upon 2 versus $17.46 billion the street was expecting right now they say that they are not providing quarterly guidance that may be a reason that you see the stock down slightly, down by 25 cents what's important though is kind of looking through the numbers on this. organic sales up by 6% they say that's mostly because of volume. it was across just about every one of their categories. every category i've seen and it looks like it's across every geographic area, too

for personal health care, they grew in the high teens in terms of the organic sales for home care they grew in the high teens for family care they grew in the double digits. for fabric care and feminine care they grew in the high single digits. oral care they were also up in the high single digits through mid single digits. skin, personal care, health, babycare that grew in the low single digits. again, when you're talking about growth, this is broad-based too from a geographic perspective. up 15% in the european enterprise markets, 14% in canada, 10% in latin america, 10% in the united states and 6% in the european focus markets. the stock is down by half a percent. this is very strong news coming out from the company they are not going to be giving guidance for the existing quarters from here you can understand when companies are kind of looking for these things when you hear guidance, i'm not sure i always believe it who knows what's going to happen from here. david taylor is procter &

gamble's ceo he says the strong results are a direct reflection of the integral role our products play in meeting the daily health, hygiene, cleaning needs of consumers around the world the question is going to be how much of this is sales that were pulled forward as people were pulling forward and that stock right now down by .2 of a percent. andrew >> okay. meantime, the key to re-opening the economy rests on finding some medical solutions in this hour we are joined by three executives leading the charge to find coronavirus breakthroughs from treatments to vaccines we're going to be speaking with the ceos of moderna, the mayo clinic and sanofi. we'll try to get a sense of how promising and how quickly that may be able to get on the market joe? >> yeah.

right now let's get to meg tirrell. we'll start with gilead's drug remdesivir showing it is an active compound it is showing activity he was i would say optimistic but not over the moon. stock futures and gilead shares are sharply higher meg tirrell joins us with the latest news from gilead and moderna. hey, meg. >> reporter: joe, this was a report out yesterday from stat news and it's not the full clinical trial data that everybody has been waiting on on gilead's remdesivir. they received a video communication taking part in the clinical trial in that communication from the university of chicago medicine they were very optimistic about how the drug is working in that trial. the university of chicago enrolled about 125 people into two of gilead's phase three

trials two of them were severe. most patients were already discharged and they saw rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms two patients in that trial passed away. one of the other things they said is the duration of the treatment for many of them was less than 10 days which bodes well for the supply of this drug potentially. we have to reiterate this is not the full clinical trial data and that will come later this month there is controversy about this report some saying it can only be considered anecdotal until we see the clinical trial data. people are reacting because we are desperate to hear news about how it is working. we are desperate to hear news about vaccines news on moderna. they are in the lead they are getting a grant from barda, hhs, for $443 million to support the development of their

vaccine which started enrolling patients in the first human clinical trial in the middle of march. that first phase is fully enrolled they're expecting safety data and starting the second round of testing. that money is going to support the manufacture and scaleup for them they're hiring 150 people and they say with this support and if all goes well, they should be able to supply millions of doses per month this year. tens of millions in 2021 if this vaccine proves safe and effective. guys, back over to you >> meg, stay right there joining us right now to talk more about this is stephane bancel, the ceo of moderna therapeutics great to see you we talked to you earlier this week that was before this grant, this award from the government came earl what does this mean? how much does this add to the speed with which you can try to come up with a vaccine

>> good morning, becky this is extremely helpful because we can accelerate the clinical studies we can do most of these in trial because you can see it's a very large grant. on the clinical front it's great news on the manufacturing front it is very important because instead of waiting for the data and then scaling up the manufacturing process so we can make as many doses as we can, we are doing power and we could not have done this without this and i'm very thankful for the administration and members of congress and members of the u.s. senate for passing those packages out there. >> stephane, does that mean you're starting building a manufacturing plant or getting things prepared to roll out the vaccination in large scale very quickly?

>> so we have a plant in massachusetts. we make more mass in time. that's very useful we have new equipment so we can have more rooms making the product. we are trying to work with other leadership to be able to just make as many product as we can and we are already looking at potentially new avenues to add to our existing facility >> let's talk about time lines i know that's tricky i know a lot of things can go wrong along the way and there could be things to slow you down the best case scenario, when do you think you could have a vaccine that's gone through clinical trials. when do you think you could start manufacturing that when do you think you would be able to manufacture it to scale to see 200 million or more vaccinations that roll out and are able to get us herd immunity in the united states those are the types of milestones we are told we need to be watching for. >> yes, twhee tehere's a team ae

nih and there are time lines daily, trying to be creative to share anything we can. so basically at the high level if everything goes perfectly, we should have a safety day trial for phase 1 for the first cohort of healthy adults in the spring. as soon as we have this data we are working with the fda but we can start the phase 2 in hundreds of healthy subjects because of this funding from barda we are able to do a lot of different subpopulation study. as you know, we need to understand it works in the elderly, how does it work with people with co morbidity factors. for the summertime, we should be able to get data on immunogenicity, i.e.,, how much is made from people's blood and how good is the antibody from

the blood to bind and neutralize that is very important in the performance and efficacy of the vaccine. big efficacy study testing positive people, able to start in the fall, and so if all those things go well we are hoping to be able to be ready commercially to make the vaccine widely available in the u.s. in 2021. >> stephane, it's meg tirrell. i know it's difficult because the trials are ongoing and we are waiting to hear the data we're not in precedented times right now. can you tell us anything about what this funding signals about hhs's and your optimism about what you're seeing in the trial? does this signal anything positive in terms of how well it is either safe or working? >> i think it's still very early. we are not -- a lot of the data

from the trial, but as you know, meg, all technology is a platform this is the tenth vaccine going into clinical studies. we've actually on tuesday shared some new positive data in human on the zika vaccine, so because we use the same technology across other products and that we have already been working with dr. fauci's team on the middle east receiving vaccine in the past with very good data in pre-clinical model, all of us are optimistic so far the safety looks good as we announced this morning, we're extending into two cohorts of older, healthy subjects a cohort between 51 and 70-year-old and a cohort of people above 71-year-old and that's a good sign you can assume if we had some safety concern in the first cohorts, the 18 to 55-year-old,

we would not have exposed it to people who are more vulnerable >> hey, meg, let me ask you a question we are talking about all of these promising things, these promising developments taking place whether it be therapeutics, vaccines, with the news from gilead and this news from moderna then we spoke with bobby kotick this week and he spoke about the convalescent blood transfusions. we have the ceo of mayo coming on to talk about that. that's another potentially promising therapeutic in this. you take the blood, the serum from people who have recovered from this disease and generate that and put it into sick patients they have seen that have some success as well. what do you think about the progress of the pace we have seen is it much better than you would have anticipated a month ago as you said, these are unprecedented times. >> reporter: the pace of drug and vaccine development that

we've observed in this pandemic is anything faster than anything i've seen in the past ten plus years. i compared this to ebola that was happening in west africa and didn't come to the u.s. in any major way. they were using convalescent plasma there, too, and i would say the speed with which that got up and running is comparable with what we've seen before. and also the promise of that approach, it does seem like it is helping there is, of course, a limiting factor in you need plasma donations from recovering people one frustration is people who have had less severe disease, weren't in the hospital, have not been officially tested and don't know they could be donors. that's a wrinkle that hopefully your guest will talk about getting worked out >> stephane, separate question

about the vaccine that you're working on how does it differ from what we heard from the approach that j&j and alex gorsky plan to be taking and the big investment that they're initiating? >> yes, so those are more i would say traditional, older technologies so they already have some experience they have some manufacturing capacity those are different approaches yet another technology i mean, there's a world that a lot of vaccines get to market. if you just make a comparison through business, you have three or four big manufacturers of flu so we need to have several vaccines so we can supply a billion of those around the world and we need to make sure that one makes it. so i think a lot of trials is very important the government is very smart to help several companies if more make it, wonderful

we need at least one to make it. >> stephane, i want to thank you for being with us today and just seeing all of these things, you know, we wish you speed in your work on this and we hope you'll come back and give us updates very soon. meg, good to see you and we'll check in with you a little later. andrew >> okay. coming up when we return, another big market story to bring you right after the break. boeing announcing that it plans to restart production in its plant in washington state. we've got details on that next as we head to break let's get a check at markets take a look at futures they are up in large part on the back of some promising news of remdesivir still waiting for the official results on that study dow back 758 points if we opened right now. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc we need to unite all the trolls.

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good morning, everybody. there is good news from boeing the company is set to resume commercial airline production as soon as monday phil lebeau is here. good morning. >> reporter: becky, this is huge news there are a number of questions that have weighed on boeing shares and this was one of them. when will plachblgnts start up n and now we have an answer.

they will do a phased restart starting on monday these are the wide-body planes this will impact about 20% of boeing's backlog for ceo dave calhoun, he's got this issue, which they are starting to address. by the way, we'll probably see south carolina come online likely in the next week or two as south carolina pulls back on the coronavirus restrictions he's also got to focus on liquidity, not just for boeing but for the airline industry and the aviation industry overall. a big determining factor, what happens with the government aid and potential loans from the treasury department. boeing is waiting on terms from treasury they're involved in discussions with treasury. it may go to the private market. may do a combination of federal loans as well as through the private market that's the key driver, if you will, in terms of what happens with boeing shares over the next let's say two weeks. we'll see if we get answers before boeing reports earnings on april 29th. so one big issue for the time

being, guys, being taken off the table, now there's some others the biggest one being what happens with liquidity and the federal loans or the private loans. >> okay. phil, thank you for that in the meantime, we want to bring in kathy wood, ceo of arc invest talk markets this morning and some of the big name stocks. of course, the stocks kathy loves a lot is tesla want to talk to her about that one as well. first of all, kathy, before we get to tesla, what's your take on where the market is right now? we are looking at a market that really looks like we're back in 2019 does that make sense to you on a risk adjusted basis? >> well, the way we've been looking at this market is it's more like that in 1987 when we went through the 1987 black monday when it was down 27% in one day.

that was a shock to the system because portfolio insurance failed at 9/11, another shock to the market because of the terrorist attacks. and what we saw from those two shocks, these were exogenous shocks they did not come from within the economy. we saw that the trends in motion before those shocks remained in motion after so great market, great growth continued to pace after several months of settling down and allaying fears, and then when we were in the middle of the tech and telecom, trend in motion remained in motion we were in the bust for another 18 months. we were in a very strong economy before this attack and the shock and moreover the consumer was doing very well and had a very high saving rate, 8% businesses had been pulling back for more than a year because of the china trade conflict and

because of inverted yield curves scaring them about recession so they were also in good shape in terms of didn't have a lot of inventori inventories. had pull back on capital spending we think the consumer will come back and that businesses are going to have to chase them. we do believe this is going to be more v-like than most >> how dependent is that on the government basically throwing helicopter money at everybody? >> well, it is -- yesterday we got news from the fed, m2 growth is up in the mid to high teens we have not seen this since the early '80s so we certainly see the stimulus out there i think if, and my mentor, art laffer, has been espousing this, if we don't get off the ground as quickly, it's frustrating, i think that one of his ideas, payroll tax holiday for both

sides, employer/employees, that could really encourage, be a huge incentive to get activity back this year i've heard president trump mention it i don't think they've done anything about it yet, but i know they're thinking about it >> but the reason i ask is if this does extend longer, and clearly there are people who are going to be going back to work and hopefully soon and hopefully in may we'll see some people back at work, the question is i think less and less supply side, meaning there's going to be availability of supply i think the real question is going to be on the demand side or do you not see it that way? >> no, as i said, the consumer certainly went into this on average in good shape. some people with not a lot of savings buffer have been hurt tremendously in here, but i think on average that 8% saving rate was a nice buffer to enter this i do believe -- boy, i believe

there's a lot of pent-up demand out there as long as people have kept their jobs, and that's why i think this administration is trying to keep the infrastructure in place so there are jobs to go back to >> okay. and then, finally, just cars we always talk tesla with you. do you think people are going to be buying cars this year there's a report out in the e.u. sales for vehicles down about 55% across the board last month. >> right i think the traditional auto indus have is a leap here. they scaled back on investing in electric vehicles, which they shouldn't be doing that because that is the new world, but i don't think they have any choice they're cutting back on everything i think tesla's market share is going to be much higher in this space than we originally thought. we've been in our assumptions assuming they would maintain

market share we were beginning to believe they would increase market share because they're so far ahead of the competition. now we're pretty sure of it. >> okay. cathie, nice to see you as always stay safe and healthy out there. >> you, too. thanks so much >> joe, over to you. okay andrew, coming up, the mayo clinic the ceo of the mayo clinic tells us about a plasma program pre-covid-19 first, here's a look a at this morning's s&p winners and losers stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc derek, seems like your team is operating just fine remotely. yeah, everything is running smoothly with the now platform. (bling) see, incident resolved. how did you... gotta enjoy the small wins.

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welcome back, everybody. take a look at uber shares they're surging after the company gave a preliminary update it says revenue will fall by 17 to $22 million in the first quarter and 60 to $80 million in the second quarter because of the financial assistance program for drivers. they're taking a writedown in the first quarter. still to come on "squawk box" this morning, the ceo of the mayo clinic is our guest we're going to discuss the organization's program to fight the pandemic and then the ceo of the french giant sanofi joins us. back-to-back interviews on the science of battling cod-vi19 stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc

welcome back to "squawk b " box. it's up 710 points weremdesivir anecdotal data i think some people writing in has something to do with the prospects for re-opening the country as we might be getting closer to certain phases of that that might be helping a little as well, becky

>> although the futures, really saw action on the recommemdesivr news i think you're going to get a different picture from different places in the country. in areas where there are not a lot of cases i'm sure people are not as concerned as people in our area are where you see so many cases and just about everybody knows someone who has been impacted, is sick, or worse with the situation >> people are out, you know, like making their feelings known about this, which you saw some of the protests. cars for as far as you can see protesting you can imagine that we are pretty lucky we're still working. there are people that have no income right now and some of them that aren't in new york or new jersey, you can understand

the frustration that they're feeling. everybody's been cooperating everybody has been doing the social distancing and the curve's being bent but a lot of people with the social distancing has been a lot tougher on them than as we've seen, a lot of people in mansions with swimming pools. >> right especially if you look at those employees who are -- workers who are in the lower core tile of the income bracket, 9% of them are able to work from home again, this is something that is not equally spread -- the pain is not equally spread across that's something that you're going to see more and more of. that political pressure for issues like that that's why the race for finding a vaccine or finding therapeutics is so important joining us right now is someone who is leading on that front the mayo clinic is leading a national coordination of plasma donation from recovered coronavirus patients for possible therapeutic treatment joining us to talk more about

that is mayo clinic ceo. it's great to see you, doctor. thank you for being with us today. >> thank you thanks for having me back on the program to talk about convalescent plasma. mayo clinic has an initiative on the need to collaborate to come up with new treatments, figure ways to prevent covid-19 and then quell hot spots when they occur. convalescent plasma has the potential to do all three. >> let's talk a little bit more about that convalescent blood transfusion. we heard this from bobby kotick. i spoke with him at length about it afterwards and he talked about how amazing it is. can you explain how the system works and what you're seeing >> sure. when any of us are exposed to bacteria or virus, we develop lipid proteins in our blood

called antibodies. they're there to help successfully, not always these tend to develop for covid-19 about day eight they're highest in our blood for about a month after we've recovered from covid-19. so one person has recovered, the plasma that is the part of the blood that does not have blood cells, it has the antibodies, it can be used and given to a person who is actively infected to have the person fight the covid-19 virus >> and how successful is it at this point what are you saying? i have heard stories, again, anecdotal, not broad studies of these things, i've heard stories of patients who were very, very sick in the hospital who were much better less than a week later, days after receiving transfusions like this what have you seen at mayo >> well, let's start by saying we are in the beginning of trying to understand how well

this works this is not a new therapy. it's been around since at least 1918 has been used several times, often with success, not always this particular initiative came from a collaboration with johns hopkins, many others mike joiner, dr. scott wright is leading it at mayo clinic. there are now 1,300 sites across all 50 states including puerto rico about 200 patients have received it anecdotally as you've said there have been some really encouraging results, results of patients who have been on a ventilator who have been able to be extubated like mayo clinic, we need the scientific rigor behind the initial anecdotes. we will look at the first 200 cases and continue to analyze to make sure we subject this initiative to the same rigor as any other medication or

pharmacological agent. >> gian, we spoke a little bit ago to meg tirrell she pointed out one of the limiting factors with this might be trying to get plasma from people who have had this disease and recovered. a, there aren't that many people who know it and, b, we haven't had wider testing to try to find out who's had it and who had a milder case of it. what are you seeing in terms of the amount of plasma you're able to get versus the need >> so there's a website that people can go to and sign up for it because we do want to get as many people as possible. there's also a pharma that has become involved in this called hyper immunoglobulin there will be different ways of getting to it. you're absolutely right. that's where serological testing comes in we introduced our serological test a few weeks ago part of the reason for that was to tell who has been exposed those who have been exposed, even if they did not know it, could still have a high level of

antibody in their blood and, therefore, would be perfect candidates to donate, too. >> so where does this process stand atthe moment how many patients has this been tried on how many places are they running either trials or just testing it on some of their sicker patients >> so it's growing every day it's still run by us working with all the blood banks, with the red cross, with many other health care organizations. as i mentioned, there are 1,300 sites that are involved. 200 patients have received it. i think it's getting closer to 300 now. there are about 900 patients who have been signed up to receive it but not all of them have received it yet. we expect to see it grow exponentially over the next weeks as more information gets out about it as we begin to understa understand how to use it we're learning we thought it was best to give it to the very, very sick. we're now learning there my be

an opportunity to give it to the point where we can give it to people to prevent getting into the icu saving precious beds and ventilators. could you use it to prevent somebody from actually getting hospitalized in the first place? once there's enough supply of it and if it works, you can also think of ways you can give it to patients who are at high risk and health care workers. >> that's great news it's incredibly promising. doctor, we appreciate your time. it's good seeing you and we hope to check in with you again soon. >> thank you and thank you for having me on once again, as always, i'd love to give a great thank you to all the health care workers around the country, especially at mayo clinic thank you. >> absolutely. we agree and wholeheart tedly salute them as well. cnbc is going to be gathering health care leaders at the center of the fight of coronavirus for an interactive virtual event on may 12th. the guests will include the ceos

of moderna, bristol-myers squibb, many more. you can request an invitation. you can go to cnbc.com/events/healthyreturns. when we return, more on "squawk box. the big downgrade for apple we should probably talk about first, as we head to a break, take a lookat futures right now. about two hours before the open. you're looking at the dow looking like we would open up 700 points higher. little less than where we were before stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

welcome back to "squawk box. wti crude unable to find any

traction really above $20. down % up to 18 and change this morning. 18 and change. check out the sthahares of somef the big oil stocks which are going to be affected by this and what else can you say? had some arrangements about supply, but now it's a demand problem. we're seeing that reflected. nobody knows when it's going to come back. in fact, most of the supply cuts at least that much in terms of less demand. so we'll see andrew >> hey, joe, explain this one though to me i'm just so perplexed by it. in normal world if we saw oil at this price, just on its own the market would be, you know, having a panic attack. the idea that we're going back -- >> you know, nobody's driving, but if you are driving, it's 90 cents a gallon but there's

nowhere to go, which is a problem. >> but then the flip side is, you'd think if the country was really going to come back online, you'd all of a sudden see the demand and you would think that would be anticipated in this oil story, which is clearly seemingly anticipated in the equity story to me there's some strange disconnect happening no >> the oil prices, if you think about just historically, i mean, we were -- there were predictions of $300 a barrel and next thing you knew we were under 30 again it really -- unlike a lot of things, i guess it's a stop the flow idea, you heard about what that is. gold takes 60 years to replace all the current gold, i think oil moves as much as anything on a daily basis based on what's right in front of your face. so i don't know how -- i agree with you normally you would see the stock market or just the notion of

global -- of a global economy at $18 just is really, really dismal so we'll see whether the oil can get out of its own way i thought it was weird when trump started talking about saudi arabia and russia. almost went back to 30 then you get basically the deal that he was talking about, that didn't last more than, you know, what was the half-life of that here we are back down even below where it was -- right about where it was when they started all of that. i don't understand. >> but equities -- but equities have moved much higher that's the thing i'm trying to figure out meantime, however, we do have some other news to tell you about this morning goldman sachs downgrading apple, a story that people are going to be focused on as well today. the analyst reducing its forecast for apple for a third time since mid february. they expect a deeper reduction in product demand through mid 2020 and a shallower recovery into early 2021.

they expect services to grow substantially, they said, in 2021 all of that led in a cut in the target from $21 to 233 if so many people are out of work they may cut the services there is a real talk about a super cell we were going to buy this new 5g phone and what will happen when that phone does get released a cheaper phone was released this week. we'll see. becky, over to you >> okay. thank you. when we come back, the ceo of sanofi on the company's collaboration with rovis.mithkline to battle conaruthat interview is next rit here on "squawk box.

biotech, pharma companies and the world ramping up their efforts to find a vaccine, treatment or test for coronavirus. one company is working on all three of those fronts. sanofi announcing it will be partnering with gsk to create a vaccine for the coronavirus within the next 18 months. the company also donating 100 million doses of hydroxychloroquine to 50 countries. it just announced production of an at-home coronavirus test that uses smartphone technology joining us now, paul hudson, ceo of sanofi. thanks for joining us this morning, paul. i think the -- tell us about the

vaccine, first off, with gsk that was announced a week ago. i guess it was announced on the 14th not that long ago. what does it involve what's the plat forming and the proof of concept that's been done with other vaccines, the method you're using? >> so good morning, joe and thanks for having me on. gentleman, i yeah, it's a big step. it's a collaboration of two large companies bringing the best they have to do something to bring us back to normal life as soon as possible. we hope to bring this vaccine through next year. we believe that we're one of the few companies, we're over 100 years olds, sanofi we are one of the few companies that can make a vaccine at a huge scale we're talking 100, 400, 600 million doses next year, which is going to be required to get us there we also have another shot on goal, by the way, an mrna,

cutting edge technology. the only company with two vaccines, two shots on goal. we're delighted to be bringing them forward and trying to do something to help do something right across the world >> testing is also something that everyone thinks in lieu of the 18 months you're talking about for a vaccine, if you knew you already had it, if you knew who did, who didn't, who was susceptible, so there's a startup called luminotics. what you're envisioning is a way for people not to go anywhere near a health care worker or hospital setting but completely able to do something at home, self-administer the test and then -- go into how that wil work you get the results, there's an app on your smartphone what do you envision, paul >> let me take a step back getting back to normal next year is going to be about vaccines,

people knowing whether they have the virus or not you know, we did the collaboration on the vaccine three weeks for two large companies and then at the other end of the scale we partnered with a small startup in less than 14 days, and we did it because it's quite clear that people need to -- people want to know where they stand, do they have it or not they will not always get the opportunity to go to a health care center. maybe they don't even want to. so using some cutting-edged technology, plugging it into your phone and using a saliva sample, you should be able to get a result in about 30 minutes. we hope to bring this forward by the end of this year, and we think, you know, again, we're one of thediagnostics, vaccine and treatments for covid-19. i think we're really at the forefront. we thought we needed to bring our expertise in the areas to diagnostics to complete the

picture. >> interesting to be able to do that can you talk about a couple of therapeutics one obviously somewhat controversial. you did donate hydroxychloroquine, 100 million doses. that's not the only one that you're working on. interesting that so many anti -- or immune-related therapeutics, like anti-rheumatoid arthritis drugs might have some benefit because of whatever coronavirus does in the lungs in terms of cytokine storms. you're partnering with regeneron. what do you think of kazar and hydroxychloroquine and its benefits >> we started looking at these medicines because of early anecdotal feedback from china where many different approaches were tested. these medicines were approved for different illnesses, and we wanted to have no regrets. they had been used

experimentally, we wanted to step forward, do the clinical trials, do them with speed and provide the medicines. it seemed like something we had to do as a company that's what we've done we're a week or two away from knowing whether they are effecti effective. i don't think there's anything co controversial. we couldn't wait because if we waited before letting people know we provided them, it was just unnecessary so we've come to the front we're making the drugs availa e available. they'll do the studies if they demonstrate the effect, then we'll bring them forward for patients across the world. >> yeah. the controversy is not necessarily engendered by the people working on the drugs, paul, that's for sure. i won't point any fingers but we do have some controversy associated with just about everything we do in today's world. we appreciate your time this morning and your efforts paul hudson, the ceo of sanofi

i can't -- i just can't -- my smartphone is going to be able to do everything, even test me for coronavirus. good luck with everything and bring us back -- or come back and update us on some of this. >> thank you we're doing our best, i can tell you, the whole company >> thank you okay when we come back, a big hour ahead. we're going to be injoed by allianz's chief economic advisor, muhammad el erian ♪

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we've got very early but optimistic news on a drug made by gilead. a first glimpse of how america gets back to work. president trump laying out a multi-phase plan we've got details straight ahead. taking stock of the fed's unpress dentded actions to fight the coronavirus slowdown and what's left in the central

bank's args is he nban bank's arsenal we'll hear from john williams. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin u.s. futures this hour are up sharply. up 750 points or so. it would set us up for a pretty good week overall, i think, at least in terms of stability and consolidating some recent gains and a bounce off the lows that we saw, but we'll see. up today on what i think partly at least or mostly because of this next story. andrew i'm sorry, becky >> joe, thanks. as joe mentioned, what's been really kind of powering or helping to power the futures higher is the optimism surrounding the gilead sciences

drug remdesivir. stat news reported that most patients in a phase 3 drug trial at the university of chicago had rapid recoveries in fever and in respiratory symptoms and were discharged in less than a week in a video that was obtained by stat news, a university disease specialist said only two patients had died, however, this news is early. itremdesivir all of the patients received the drug shares of gilead rose 16% on this news. the last i checked the stock was up closer to 12% the infectious disease specialist who is running that clinic even said the clinical trial that she had some reservations about it but, again, people looking through for any news, any insight as to what this means. gilead itself has said that it needs to finalize results not only from that but from some other studies going on around the country. you see gilead shares up by

about 12%. separately biotech company moderna will be receiving $570 million to speed up development of its experimental coronavirus vaccine. in the last hour ceo of moderna told us what that grant means for his company. >> we can do most of this in trial because we can see it's a very large grant so the clinical front, it's great news for everybody on the manufacturing front, it is very important because instead of waiting for the data and then scaling up the manufacturing process so we can make as many doses as we can, we are doing both. >> let's take a look at shares of moderna, too. he talked about how they can build these batches more quickly, have it operating in more rooms, have bigger places where they are building all of this together and that would be good news if you could get it out more quickly moderna shares are up by more than 19% this morning. joe? >> thank you, becky.

let's get back to eamon now and the plans to get america back to work president trump laying out a phased approach to re-opening the country. eamon javers joins us now with more hello again, eamon >> reporter: yeah, good morning, joe. no decisions here and no dates yet for re-opening in any of the states the president says he's going to leave it up to the governors to decide what's best in their region, but he did lay out a multi-stage process here for getting the country back to work gradually here's what the president said yesterday. >> governors will be empowered to tailor an approach that meets the diverse circumstances of their own states every state is very different. if they need to remain closed, we will allow them to do that and if they believe it is time to reopen, we will provide them the freedom and guidance to accomplish that task and very, very quickly

>> reporter: so the president laid out three phases here doctors fauci and birx coordinating with him on how this is going to roll out. here's what they're saying for each of the phases in terms of employers and workplaces as we all think about what it's going to be like to get back to work in offices they're saying that in phase 1, they're going to encourage employers to continue with tele work, that work from home that we're all experiencing right now, or so many of us are experiencing right now return to work in phases, they're saying bring the employees back in staggered groups close those common areas any area where people might congregate the coffee area, that sort of thing where there are the surfaces that can transmit the disease and minimize non-essential travel in the first phase. so very gradual re-opening of offices. in phase 2, that's when they're saying you can resume non-essential travel but you have to continue the telework and keep the common areas

closed we're not going to be gathering around the coffee machine at the office phase 3, that's where they're talking about the idea of going back to unrestricted staffing of work sites seems like we're a long way from there. in any case, even when we have phase 3 it seems like we're going to be dealing with a lot of the social distancing, a lot of telework, a lot of remote contact with people that we are used to dealing with people unclose and personal, joe. that's the way it's going to be until we get a vaccine that can be widely distributed and widely taken within the population. that's how they're thinking about laying this out. it will be a very gradual re-emergence in stages >> hey, eamon, in phase 2, this idea of unrestricted travel, what do they mean by that? unrestricted travel by car i can't imagine they're talking about by air >> reporter: no, they're talking about nonessential travel. once you get into phase 2, that's when you're talking about, right, nonessential travel being able to open up

the definition of essential seems to be left up to the individual employer, right my sales conference might feel essential to me but not to you i think we're going to struggle through a lot of regional variations and variations employer to employer >> andrew, they're not going to bail out any of the companies so there won't be any airlines left let's forget about any air travel you're not ready to give them a penny. get used to your mini van because that's the only way you're going to be traveling if you get your way >> reporter: well, look, a lot of this is going to depend on demand, right? you might be able to have air travel at some point, but the question is are the customers going to be there? will people want to go stay in hotels i mean, i think just my life and my kids, my kids play soccer, we fly in airplanes to go to soccer matches to go to the kids or we did. after virus are we going to want to do that that is a completely

non-essential, totally discretionary things we do for fun. hop on an airplane, go to a soccer game, i don't think that's going to happen very soon in most american's lives that kind of jump in a plane and go to vegas for the weekend kind of stuff, that seems like we're a long way away from that. >> just to put a fine point on it to clarify my one thought about airlines, because i do ask the question a lot of our guests. >> reporter: sure. >> it's not a particular view of mine the view is not whether you need to save the airlines, which you do because you want to save the employees and keep the planes in the air, the question is whether the government is -- whether the shareholders need to be saved and whether you can still do that in some other way or get some kind of benefit back. the bailouts, frankly for the banks, the treasury and taxpayers made more money and got the money back in a way that the airline bailouts will not. that's the only point that i've ever tried to make about the airlines it's not that i don't want the airlines to succeed. we very much need them they are critical to the

economy. the question is whether the shareholders themselves are somewhat critical to the economy and are special. i think there's at least a question mark about that meantime, thank you, eamon i want to talk a little bit about what is going on with this gilead drug. a lot of hopes around the gilead experimental drug helping power what looks like the future is going a lot higher this morning. joining us to talk about the markets, allianz chief economic advisor, mohamed el erian has joined us. we have been privileged to spend so many mornings with you, mohamed. the market looks like it's moving higher. on the back of science, you talked about how this is going to be solved by science ultimately how do you think the market and investors should think about this kind of news? >> first, it's very good news. one is treating the illness better the second is containing the spread of the virus. the third is immunity, and on the first one, we have better

news that's really good news. it's also good na we have a roadmap to how we're going to re-open the economy, and we need it, andrew, after this week's data retail sales, industrial production, jobless claims, housing. they were all pretty scary so it's a good thing that we have it going forward. we have a roadmap. we have progress on a critical health issue and one does have to consolidate these gains to maintain what you're seeing in the marketplace today. >> but, mohamed, you know, over the last week or two you've been a bit skeptical i think of the rise in the stock market you questioned whether we're going to see some negative down drafts in a meaningful way the question is can you bet against two things, the government and all of this government support that's being thrown at this and science because if you're not in the market effectively when we

finally do get announcements about things like that, you may miss that. that's the optimistic view. >> yeah. that's the wrong question. it's how you bet i have been saying bet up in quality, and if you look over the last few weeks, it is the companies with a better balance sheet, it is the companies that live mostly in virtual space that have done better. the nasdaq has outperformed the s&p and can certainly outperform american markets so the up in quality trade has worked so far. the question is how we stay engaged in the market, not whether you stay engaged in the market the reason why i pause is because of the level of valuations the s&p is about, about 20 -- the pe ratio is about 20 last year's earnings now a few companies, in tech, in health care, some very essential consumer staples are going to have similar or better earnings, but most will not.

not this year, not next year so it's a valuation issue that sort of holds me back. but the relative value trade, the up in quality trade, i like it all day long. >> okay. all right. we like your quality you fall back on that a lot, muhammad regrets, i've had a few. i think it's a song. three weeks ago, really, we're going to grind lower we're up 30% you don't wish you had said, buy quality, don't buy quality, buy anything up 30% no regrets of staying a little bit bearish too long none whatsoever? >> no, of course there's regrets. i could have never imagined, and it is controversial, joe, i could have never imagined the fed going in and buying high yield bonds. and there's a pushback against was that a good idea, to get exposed to more credit risk, more default risk. did i predict that no, i did not. actually, i don't think they should have done it, but i

certainly didn't predict it. had i predicted it, i would have been more positive on buying the market as a whole because the market has immediately embraced that the next step in the capital structure, it's not a big one, once you cross into investment grade and high yield, the next step into equities doesn't look that big, is the fed buying equities. that now is in the marketplace >> let me ask you separately, moo mohamed, about the price of oil. we're now in the $18 range a barrel in a normal world the equity market -- everybody -- that would be the conversation and there would be panic in the streetsyou would normally imagine. can you explain the disconnect >> yeah. there's two very interesting dynamics going on. one is that demand is falling and the china number was particularly influential because china's a high energy intensity country. so when gdp contracts by 6.8%,

that's meaningful for energy but the second one is look at the difference between wti and brent. it is wti that's getting hit very hard and that's about storage, andrew. there's nowhere for the oil to go so the demand gets hit also on the inventory side. so it is a big deal. i think the marketplace is looking through this a few weeks ago that would have disrupted the market, but the market is seeing a few things that it's embracing, some of which i also embrace we are seeing advances in medical issues, as so many are allocating to that we see a roadmap opening i embrace the two things they're seeing a strong fed put. that's the one i don't agree >> okay. mohamed el erian, always good to see you and talk to you. appreciate it very much. >> thank you have a good weekend, everybody. >> you, too. stay safe and healthy out there.

becky? >> thanks. when we come back, an inside look at the growth of remote work in this time of pandemic. microsoft's president brad smith is going to join us to talk about that and much more. later this hour we'll bring you an exclusive interview with new york fed ral reserve president john williams on all the shots the nation's central bank has fired at the coronavirus. as we head to break, let's take a look at shares of boeing. that company will resume limited commercial jet proctn tduioinhe seattle area on monday following a three-week shutdown. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc.

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the pandemic has people isolated and working from home tech companies are feeling the effects of this, including microsoft. microsoft teams which enables chat, meetings, calls marched to

40 million users that was up from 20 million users in november of last year microsoft skype surged to 40 million daily users last month, up 70% from the previous month for a closer look at this and much more, let's welcome brad smith. he is microsoft's president. brad, it's good to see you this morning. how are you doing? >> very well, becky. good to see you. thank you. >> it's good to see you. we're watching the seattle area pretty closely because you all were some of the first to really see the community transmission of this virus and were some of the very first in. it sounds like you might be some of the first coming out though, too. it's good news to hear that boeing is going to be restarting some of its production in the area what are you seeing in terms of how microsoft is operating and what you're seeing in the community? >> well, i think you're right. seattle was one of the earlier places to experience this, at least in the united states we are on the earlier side, therefore, coming out of it. we flattened the curve quickly

a lot of this was because businesses brought people home we had microsoft brought people home 19 days before the governor issued an order to do so we appreciate that not everybody can work from home, but it's pretty amazing to see the resilience of our economy and productivity for government and the like a lot of it is now the technology that we have today, whether it's the cloud and cloud services, products like teams that you refer to, the ability to put on your show. and, so, this is something we wouldn't have had as a society a decade ago i think we're also seeing an enormous focus on the use of data to combat covid-19. we're working with public health authorities, whether it's locally, nagly, globally the world health organization both to identify the trends, support them in the decisions they're making, move hospital

supplies and capacity. so this is a tech-based resilient economy, not completely obviously for all the reasons you're talking about, but to a far greater degree than would have been possible, say, 10 or 20 years ago >> how much of these changes in the way we work do you think are lasting after we find a cure or a vaccine for covid? >> i think there's probably two things that we can say about this first, this has really accelerated the ongoing digital transformation not just of the united states but of the world there's a greater acceptance of sort of almost remote everything you know, we'll see i think more people working together. we'll see more people participating in meetings with the technology we've now taken for granted. i think this also reflects a

resurgence of the laptop, if you will, because after a decade of almost constant focus on the phone and the smartphone, i think we're discovering that we really do need other computing form factors and at the same time, i think most of us really do like to see other people we like to leave our homes we'll welcome the opportunity to sit down in a room and look in people's eyes across the table so i don't think we're all just going to stay at home for the rest of our lives, but there will be an acceptance of a broader range of work habits and we'll see it all come back together that way. >> brad, i know the reason that you're with us today is to really talk about the new planetary computer that you all are launching that's going to be tracking data about the environment from around the globe, and it seems like maybe it's a weird timing for an announcement like that until you consider that biodiversity loss and wildlife trade are making pan dem mix like covid-19 more

likely to happen more frequently so tell us what you all are doing on that front. >> thank you the obvious issue of the year is covid-19, but i think the issue of the decade is and will remain sustainability of the planet and that's why we started this year with a big step forward around carbon committing as a company that we would be carbon negative by the year 2030 and then we stuck to our guns. we followed that this week with an announcement around biodiversity we really think that sustainability issues require constant, ongoing action in four areas, carbon, biodiversity, water and waste. and the connection to biodiversity is this, we're all, as it turns out, dependent on the other species on the planet. if an insect species becomes extie extin extinct, that can affect every aspect of the food chain that we

lie on as human beings the biodiversity of the planet has been under effect just like the carbon issue has put the planet under effect. we're seeing record declines in the number of species. that, in turn, is dependent on access to wetlands, coral reef, forest, trees, the use of land we stepped forward this week with a new initiative that includes what we call a planetary computer we really have to map all of the earth's surface, understand what is there the rise or unfortunately principally the decline in biodiversity, we need governments to do this around the world. we're going to need national ecosystem assessments and strategies simply to preserve what we have and hopefully to restore biodiversity in many places >> hey, brad, it's andrew sorkin here quick question for you about

climate and what business is trying to do given what's happening to our economy and really the damage it's going to do to so many businesses how do you think about businesses going forward and investing in things like this? you have a huge balance sheet. most companies these days are going to be challenged for some period of time how does that change the equation for all of this >> i think it's a great question, andrew look, not everybody can afford to do the same thing, and i think we have to be extraordinarily sensitive to that but those of us who have the stronger balance sheets i think really do benefit by focusing both on the crisis of the day, but also the opportunities and the challenges of the decade and at microsoft, you know, we are in the fortunate position of being able to do that. we're certainly not alone, and i do think that those of us who are able to invest for the

longer term, both specifically for the remote technologies that are going to power our future but also to address things like climate change are going to be happy that we did. and we put $1 billion at work in january, a billion dollars to invest principally in new carbon removal technologies and the like, and i think in the year 2030 hopefully covid-19 by then is going to be a memory. it's not going to be the thing that we wake up and talk about every day. but i'll bet carbon and sustainability and biodiversity still will be. any time we can address the short-term plan and invest and act for the long-term at the same time, i think that's the right combination. >> the other question i just wanted to ask you is, you know, last month -- early last month and march right in the midst of

this covid-19 challenge here in the united states, it was a press release that i think got missed or at least didn't get a lot of attention, bill gates, the founder of microsoft stepped down from the company's board. i was hoping you could talk about the impact on the company and sort of how investors think about that >> well, the good news for us at microsoft is the relationship with bill is very deep so he doesn't come to our board meetings four times a year, doesn't participate in the board calls, but he's very much connected to the company he remains somebody who connects with us on technology issues this week i heard from him on both technology issues and sort of remote interactivity, the kinds of things we're talking about here, as well as covid-19. what he's seeing around the world, what we're seeing around the world, what businesses should be doing, what

governments need to do he still lives less than a 3450mile away he's a neighbor among many other thing. i think, you know, what we've really always been fittnefittedn terms of bill's engagement, his intellect, breadth of understanding of issues and we're looking forward very much to continuing to do that i know that's true of satya nadella as the ceo and all of the senior execs of the company. >> brad, want to thank you for being with us today. it's good talking to you hope to get you back soon to talk more about how the company is operating through this. >> well, good. thank you. everybody have a good weekend. >> okay. you, too andrew >> okay. when we come back, a lot more on "squawk. an exclusive interview with the president of the new york fed of what america's central bank still has up its sleeve should

the economy need it. take a look at the futures we are in the green on this friday morning looks like the dow would open up 714, 715 points. we will be back to talk all about it after this. [horns honking] birthdays aren't cancelled. hope isn't quarantined. first words aren't delayed. caring isn't postponed. courage isn't on hold. and love hasn't stopped. u.s. bank thanks you for keeping all of our spirits strong. we've donated millions to those in need and are always here for our customers and employees.

coming up, how the federal reserve's handled the pandemic and the amount of ammo it has left exclusive conversation with new york fed john williams

check out the price of crude oil, wti now with an 18 handle hovering near 18-year lows stay tuned you're wchg quk x"n bcatin"sawbo o and... let's get started. (music fades in) hey! -hi! ♪ ♪ ♪

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welcome back, everybody. we learned this week that the federal reserve balance sheet has soared to a record $6.4 trillion america's central bank has obviously taken a number of

unprecedented actions to try to keep the economy afloat and critical markets functioning during this pandemic for more on this let's get to steve liesman who joins us with a special guest. steve? >> becky, thanks very much i'm pleased to be joined by john williams, the president of the new york federal reserve bank which is really on the front lines of a lot of the fed's response doing the buying and selling and managing a lot of these programs good morning, president williams >> good morning, steve >> reporter: i'm going to start out in a way that was different from how i thought because this morning, john, there's an air of optimism in the air. the market's up. the president is announcing a plan to open the economy there's a new drug that everybody is excited about i'm wondering from an economic point of view as you look ahead, do you share that optimism now are things looking better than you had originally forecast? >> well, this is a rapidly evolving situation and every day there's new developments we obviously stay on top of

that i still think, you know, we have a lot of economic pain that we're experiencing today, and that's likely to continue for some time as these necessary measures that have been taken to limit the spread of coronavirus continue to hold down the economy. although i'm hopeful about the eventual bounce back to the economy and the recovery and getting the economy back to full strength, i still think we have some tough days ahead. that's why we're working so hard to support the economy during this difficult period. >> i want to get to those in a minute i'm going to start where i was going to normally start, which was yesterday's jobless claims number, cumulative, john, of 22.5 million over the past several weeks since march 7th. i don't think that's the surprise or really different from what was expected, but i'm wondering how much when you look at those numbers do you believe are temporary and can come back very quickly and what are you thinking about in terms of

lasting damage to the economy from this shutdown >> right that's the critical question right now we are seeing the immediate effect that the restrictions and social distancing that have been put into place and that's shutting down whole sectors of the economy. obviously hospitality, travel, retail, a lot of areas of the economy have essentially shut down in recent weeks that's why we're seeing the enormous increase in unemployment declines and employment declines and ip come. so i think that is, like you said, the predictable part of this in terms of looking ahead, you know, we're watching the data very carefully using a lot of big data and other analytics and not coming to any firm conclusions about how long this will last. we're acting in every way we ca and doing our utmost to support the economy however this evolves over the next few months

in terms of lasting damage, i think that's a critical question one of the things that we're hearing a lot from business contacts, leaders in the community is our concerns that even as the pandemic passes, even as the restrictions are relaxed gradually over time, people may take quite a while before they're willing to get back on airplanes or trains or go to the theater or go to concerts and things like that. so i think there are some risks that it takes longer to get that recovery for the economy than just what happens in terms of the formal restrictions that are in place one of the things that, you know, we're very focused on is making sure that businesses and households can get through this period, and that's what this is about. making sure credit is flowing and making sure that otherwise healthy businesses can get through this period and be in a good position that once the restrictions are lifted, once

the pandemic's over, they can start their businesses up as fast as possible and get the economy back to full strength. >> john, wall street has a pretty good consensus on an atrocious second quarter but strong rebound in the third quarter. is that your base case >> well, definitely we're seeing, you know, horrible data for the second quarter we're already seeing that data obviously in regional sales, in employment and other indicators. so that i agree with in terms of a bounceback, i do think that as we see -- when restrictions are relaxed gradually over time based on what's happening with the coronavirus, we will see a return to certain sectors of the economy. in particular, i see construction, which has been hit really hard and it is very important obviously for our economy here in new york i expect that to be able to bounce back a bit, more quickly

than other sectors i don't see the economy being back to full strength by the end of the year. it's going to take us longer to be back to where we want to be let's talk about programs you have in place. the immediate concerns of the federal reserve where the treasury market and the mortgage market and some of the overnight credit markets, do you feel like those have calmed down do you feel like you have a handle on them to the extent where they're functioning more normally now >> well, you're right. that isn't where we started because when the pandemic really started to spread and market participants were, you know, getting more concerned about the eke mom mick impact and the uncertainty about that, we saw that enormous tidal wave of money moving from riskier assets and from around the globe into shorter-term safe assets the financial system in a way was overwhelmed by that flow of money, and that's why we saw the illiquidity and some market

functioning issues what's really the corner stone of the global financial system, that's the u.s. treasury securities market. that's where we intervene most frequently and on enormous scale in terms of our buying u.s. treasuries, securities, mortgage-backed securities and that was our initial where we saw signs of concern and we acted promptly and decisively. we have seen significant improvement in those critical sectors. and, you know, my view is if you don't get those healthy, then it's impossible to make sure that credit is flowing more generally. that's where we were focused initially. i think those efforts have been successful we're still purchasing but as we've seen, we've cut back on the purchases because we've seen improvement in those markets we're seeing liquidity and functioning improving there. we're seeing it spill over into other markets whether it's the money market, commercial funds, commercial paper and even

corporate bond markets now that we've seen i think a return to, you know, more stable and better functioning core financial markets, that's helping all of the markets function better. of course, we have other programs that are really to support them and support credit flow >> yeah. john, i want to talk about those other programs there's two in particular that have raised some criticism about the federal reserve. the first one is the main street lending program. an editorial in "the journal." actually, two editorials in "the journal" that criticized the federal reserve for being too tough on the people who are borrowing not having enough money, not taking enough risk with the treasury's money and, of course, involving the banks and it's going to be too slow to get up and running what are your responses to that? >> i do see the main street program as really an essential part of our approach and the federal reserve working with the u.s. treasury of providing support for the economy and

making sure credit is flowing, especially with the small and medium size businesses i think it compliments the c.a.r.e.s. act, sba ppp and complements our efforts at more broader market functioning and functioning in terms of the large business markets like the corporate bond market. you know, we are very focused at the federal research the federal researcheserve in mg sure credit gets flowing immediate, as soon as possible that it's hitting the businesses that need it the most and really has done it at scale that addresses the issues that businesses across the country are facing and will face for the next few months. clearly we've made an initial announcement around this program. we -- the federal reserve also asks for comments and we're getting a lot of feedback and comments from a variety of stakeholders, businesses, non-profits, and banks to help

us make that program as effective as possible and we're committed to getting this right and committed to getting this out into the market as soon as we can. >> john, thanks for joining us this morning john williams, the president of the new york federal reserve bank joe, back to you from my bureau where the bureau chief has declared friday a no tie day >> you're very tight with the bureau chief out there i assume you meant -- >> he's a great guy. >> we both know that's not true, but i'm glass mrs. liesman allowed you to go tieless. coming up, the rise, the challenges, and the rehabilitation of zoom the video conferencing service has exploded in popularity as americans have been forced to stay home. it's facing some big-time privacy concerns facebook's former security

officer joins us in his first broadcast interview since he took on a role advising zoom's ceo. take a look at the shares of zoom stay tuned i would tell you where they are but i won't ow fknor 15 seconds. it's all going to change on monday stay tuned we'll be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning zoom is a tech platform, of course, many people hadn't heard of before the coronavirus. now it seems like everybody is using it active users soar to as many as 200 million per day in march that's up from 10 million in december with that popularity came a lot of security concerns after reports that some users were intruding on others' meetings. the company recently announced a 90-day plan to address the security issues including hiring privacy experts. our next guest is one of them. joining us is former facebook security officer, alex stamos. he's advising zoom's ceo on how

to make the platform more secure alex, thanks for joining us this morning. >> hey, thank you. good morning >> so we actually had an interview earlier this week with the cfo of the company i'm curious given your role, a, how did you get the job? and what have you been telling them they need to do >> so i got the job by tweeting, of all things. when zoom became incredibly popular, lots of people in the security industry started talking about some of the flaws that were being found as well as the huge challenge they were facing to scale from around 10 million users per day to 200 million, which is the kind of thing that's actually pretty much unprecedented in the internet industry. i was tweeting about the fact that these bugs were serious and that this was a really critical moment for them. it brought to mind me, microsoft's moment in 2009 or google's moment in 2009, they went through security crises

that led to them having to do significant revamps of their security program the ceo found my phone number, gave me a call and we chatted and he's been very receptive since. >> so what are the kinds of things that you've been telling them how quickly do you think you can get them implemented >> they really have two different classes of problems. the first is the traditional security problem, right? they've had security flaws like all software, they have bugs now that everybody is paying attention to them, they have to be harder to find and they have to change how their software works so if there is a security flaw, that it's not as big of a deal it's not necessarily a disaster. the second set -- that's kind of standard security. that's what us in the industry have done for a long time and have figured out how to do that's about hiring the right people, applying the right processes and bringing in the right processes. there's three penetration tests going on, a lot of people working oncor product security the other side is the really

interesting challenge. zoom has gone from being a successful mid-sized i.t. firm that was used mostly by large enterprises. and so large enterprises have employees who are logged in to an authentication system they have professional it admins and they have people who interact, you know, under a set of rules, right? when you have an internal conference call at cnbc, you don't expect somebody to come in and start showing pornography on your screen, right now they've shifted over to a consumer mindset you have strangers together for the first time in these zooms or teenagers who are a little bit immature in a variety of different use cases. for that what they've had to do is really rethink the product from the ground up from how does it look to users they have to no longer act as an enterprise company but as a company like google, facebook, instagram, the like who have to deal with those kinds of problems they're building up a whole new

set of capabilities internally to do that >> so, alex, i don't know if this is an easy question for you to answer or not given the role you're having advising in that right now. if you had to have a secure and private conference meeting today in an hour when "squawk box" is over, would you do it on zoom? >> i would to be frank, my three kids use zoom every day for school. my team at stanford, i run a team that studies political disinformation around the world, we use zoom for meetings every day. all of the video products have security issues. they're quite complicated products to build securely all of the competing products have had big lists of bugs over the past few years the key thing is to be careful in your setup. if you use zoom, make sure you set a password make sure you're careful who you send the link to if you're doing it in a situation where you have

strangers showing up, turn on the waiting room feature to let strangers in that's for schools and stuff, letting students in. the security issues, they've popped up and they've been addressed very quickly that's what you want to see. software hassee. software has security flaws, zoom is reacting to that and trying to bend the curve on preventing these flaws in the future >> so, the senate -- there was a memo sent out to people as part of -- in the senate not to use zoom google sent out a memo to its employees that for company business they should not be using zoom google has a competitive product. how should users think about those kinds of warnings that are coming out and that are reaching the public >> what you'll see it all of these enterprises are now dealing with the fact they have gone for people using video conferencing as an important thing to everything. so, what is going on is all

these enterprise risk management teams are going and assessing all their different options. like i said, the truth is that all of the products have interesting security features. google -- there's been discussion around zoom's encryption we're working on options none of the products provide a level of security, they all decrypt the communication on the network. then they have security controls in place to protect it >> i think what's happened is there a bit of an overreaction the media picked up issues with zoom that are universal issues with video conferencing and people reacted to that then the risk management people look at the options and say we have issues with all of these. any of these cases people can drop into your meeting if you don't send a password. if you put a url on a public site, people can find it so we're going to be careful

about setting those up some enterprises have said that, including enterprises that have competing products there's a bunch of governments that have done the look and decided to come back i think you'll see this settle out. as companies try to figure out how do we work in this crazy environment. >> okay. alex, it's a longer discussion we hope to continue having it with you, we hope you come back. stay safe and healthy out there. becky, over to you okay thanks when we come back, we'll tell you about stocks to watch for your portfolio ahead of the opening bell the futures this morning are indicated sharply higher right now looks like the dow is indicated up by 665 points emerging ♪k mobius will join us next you're watching "squawk box" on cn cnbc ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box. futures are indicated higher fri friday, last trading day of the week, if we stay at these level, all three major averages will be up for the second week in a row. dow is up by almost 670 points dow component procter & gamble came out with earnings this morning. earnings per share were better than expected. 117 versus 113 the street had been anticipated organic sales were up 6% for the latest squaurt efst quarter tho pandemic related stockpiling p&g maintained its prior organic sales forecast, it did cut its full-year revenue growth outlook. some other stocks to watch, altria announced the retirement of howard willard. cfo, billy gifford becomes ceo

nordstrom is suspending its dividend and share buybacks. the retailer announced several moves to bolster liquidity check out shares of amc entertainment. the company is raising 5$500 million in new debt used to boost its balance sheet as it tries to ride out the closure of its movie theaters the small cap stock up more than 50% this morning on that news. joe? >> all right futures are surging on optimism surrounding gilead's experimental coronavirus drug, remdesivir we'll talk more about the markets now as we get closer to the opening bell joining us is markets increster, mark mobius, founding partner of mobius capital partners. i'm looking at -- things change quickly. i'm looking at your notes. in our notes here we say mobius recently decided that lows are not in we have not hit the absolute

bottom yet, which was a change in your perspective. but the date on that was on april 14th so, we've got another week under our belt now probably 30% or so off the lows. do you still think we go back to new lows, not all markets but most markets have not seen a bottom based on fundamentals continuing to decline globally because of the virus >> i think what you've seen is an incredible recovery you define a bull market as a 20% rise, we're in a new bull market i don't think so i think at the end of the day, the earnings hit on so many companies around the world not only in emerging countries but in developing countries has not really sunk in and once those earnings hits come out, then people will have some second thoughts nevertheless, you know, we've been buying, as i mentioned a few weeks ago, we figured it was a good time to be starting to

buy. but reserves of cash outside so that when the market corrects again, we can come in again. i expect another correction. this recovery has been almost too fast so, we got to keep some powder dry, put it that way >> we always talk about depth of something. and duration there was a one-quarter hit i would imagine that multiples could stay, you know, could rise and you could sort of look beyond that quarter. almost like suddenly we're adding 5 trillion on we used to think a trillion dollar deficit in a year was bad. we add 5 trillion on to do these things it's a one-shot deal we'll deal with it later so i think you must be at least predicting it's not a one quarter hit to earnings. it's either two quarters, three quarters or takes a long time to

even get a little bit back so that it goes out a year if it was just a quarter, mark, i would say that you shouldn't be concerned about what the "e" is in the equation for where stock prices are >> exactly i agree completely that's why we really are underestimating the impact a lot of companies will go under. i've been telling my analysts look at the balance sheets very, very carefully look at the z score. make sure we're in companies that have strong balance sheets. it's going to be tough recovering from this it won't be easy >> so, how many quarters, then and we only get parts of it back in serial fashion. you get earnings down 50%, whatever, then we get 30% back then we get, you know, 35% back. any way, we only have about 20 seconds left, mark i think we catch your drift, but

you figure this is going to be a year at least before things get close to back? >> i think so. i think it's going to be a year. a lot of these countries aring look at extending the lockdowns. depends on where you are varies from one country to another. at least a year. >> mark, thank you i'm glad we finally got you. it was short because we had issues getting you on the phone. thank you. >> thank you >> we'll say good-bye until next week futures are up sharply have a good weekend as you can have under the current circumstances. hope springs eternal good luck. ♪ >> good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and sara eisen cramer has the morning off big bounce as the market digests this antidotal report on