"squawk box" begins right now. good morning good to see you. happy monday i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we've been watching the u.s. equity futures and things are under pressure the dow looks like it would open down by 280 points a little weakness for the s&p and for the nasdaq as well nasdaq down by 75 points the s&p down by 29 this morning. we're keeping an eye on what's been happening with the treasury markets. the real story this morning is crude oil. joe will talk more about that in a moment let's take a look at treasury prices this morning just to get a look at the ten-year, the yield, what we're seeing at this point. again, this has been another one of of the major stories. ten is below 0.71% the real story is oil because

that's something to behold. >> it's hadding the lowest level since march of 1999. right now we'll take a quick look at my board, which is current. i can see it down $4.13 i say that because i've been practicing waiting 12 seconds to get a quote on something that i'm trying to give you instantaneously. now i'm back on the nasdaq and i can actually see it. the coronavirus pandemic has sapped demand for oil and global storage is rapidly proefing capacity the world is running out of room on ships anchored at sea the may futures contract for wti expires tomorrow looking out to june, the situation isn't quite as dire. it's back to more of what we're used to, kind of, at least in the last couple of weeks as you can see there, june delivery under $23 a share

meantime, an update now on the pandemic as we bring you the numbers as we do every single morning. here are the latest numbers. global cases topping 2.4 million now with 165,000 deaths. now, the u.s. cases nearing 760,000 with more than 40,000 deaths new york state has 248,000 cases with more than 14,000 deaths and we are now averaging over the past couple of days over 4,000, close to 5,000 deaths, which is literally the equivalent, if you can believe it, guys, of the number of people -- troops that were killed in the iraq war on a daily basis. it's a remarkable and terrible tragedy we're all living through. over the weekend a number of protests, though, spurring -- springing up, shd say, across the country. i want to tell you a little bit about some of those protests

taking place in florida, north carolina, virginia, michigan, maryland, new hampshire, texas, california, and others all of them are demanding that their states reopen for business pressure, of course, has been building on governors in recent week to begin the reopening process as total initial jobless claims have surged past 22 million since the outbreak began. meantime, an nbc news/"wall street journal" poll saying americans are worried about lifting stay at home orders too quickly. 58% of respondents said they were concerned that the country would move too fast. about 32% said the greater worry was the economic impact of waiting too long you see that debate playing out across the country right now becky? >> andrew, thank you in washington right now, the trump administration and democratic leaders are moving closer to a plan to replenish that small business fund, the relief fund out there for them eamon javers has been looking

into that. what do you know this morning? >> good morning. we know you la makers have been told to come back to washington. they've been back in their home districts. they're expected by wednesday. that's a pretty good indication they're getting close to a deal on capitol hill. here's how we think the contours will work out. it will be about $310 billion of additional funding for the ppe, that's that small business paycheck protection program that's so popular that it ran out of money late last week. $60 billion of that is going to be dig natured specifically for rural and minority businesses. on top of that, $75 billion for hospitals, $25 billion for testing and then $60 billion for an additional small business program. this one is a disaster relief program so that's $60 billion on top of the $310 billion. there's a lot in there for small businesses the president yesterday gave us this analysis of where we stand in negotiations.

>> let's see what happens, but we want to put -- we want to take care of our workers we want to take care of our small businesses they're really the engine of this country i can tell you we're negotiating with the democrats you know, they negotiate the things we can't do that we don't think are in the best interest of the people of this country. we are very close to a deal. >> it does feel like we're close to a deal here, becky. there's a real sense of fear and frustration on the part of small business owners who heard those reports at the end of last week that the small business fund had run out of money i think lawmakers are going to step up quickly here in order to make sure there's an additional amount of money going out the door in that direction the question is whether an additional $310 billion is enough when you're talking about all of america's small businesses facing severe strain here right now the total amount needed to deal with that problem is an unnrn

amount we'll see how that lands as we go through the day today >> i've been wondering what andrew was just talking about, about those protests taking place, where people want to go back to work in a number of these states where at the same time you have that nbc poll that shows most americans don't want things to open too quickly how does that play out is there any sense of that in washington, what people are hearing back from their districts, back from their constituenci constituencies >> the president has been linking himself to that protest movement you saw the tweets over the weekend where he was tweeting out in all caps, liberate minnesota, liberate this state, liberate that state. in virginia tweeting liberate virginia with a reference to the second amendment, that is guns the president linking himself to those far-right protesters who have been out demanding various states reopen. politically that could be dangerous for the president. as you say, we're seeing this

overwhelming support now for the lockdown effort and for health and safety generally if the president links himself too closely to a movement that is seen by too many as fringe, that could hurt him in november. the american public here very much focused on health and safety, at least for now now, this is an unprecedented situation and the dynamic could change as we go forward here fascinating to watch the president link himself to something that is an opposition movement to what his own administration supports. >> eamon, just so we're clear, the states he targeted are states that had democratic governors he is hoping will effectively get removed, correct? he interestingly didn't go after ohio, for example. >> right, yeah mike dewine in ohio is a republican >> go ahead, eamon >> i was going to say, mike dewine in ohio is a republican, the president not targeting him.

the president is in a position now of encouraging and fueling a protest movement that is protesting what his own administration officially supports it's a delicate political dance he's trying to do here and the payoff might be not good for him in november if he's not careful about it >> stay where you are, if you could. i want you to comment on this next story going a little out of order but the next story is really actually about the morality to some degree of taking the money, or at least maybe how the public thinks about this money. shake shack, as you may know, says it's going to return its entire $10 million loan from the u.s. government amid who got access at that fund that was initially aimed at saving small businesses more than a dozen publicly traded companies received funds before the program ran out of money. shake shack executives said they

had no idea the fund would dry up so uickly after they secured separate funding they said they would return the entire $10 million. the reason i wanted to raise this story with you, there's a real question about who has gotten this money, there's a bit of a naming and shaming campaign going on just over the weekend, harvard university announced they had taken $9 million of course they have a $41 billion endowment. you can make some interesting arguments on all sides of what this money was for, but how do you think washington is going to see this >> look, that was a nimble move by shake shack i read the post they put up. their stepping to the side and dodging any blowback by doing the right thing and giving that money back and saying, this is for smaller and independent restaurants. we're fine and we'll make sure that some of this money is available for other restaurants. we're all in this together that messaging is probably going to resonate and they avoid any

backlash from this problem one of the difficulties here, andrew, is that we're not going to have nearly as much transparency in this program as we had, say, in the 2008 bailout era where there was an aggressive effort to target where all the money was going. in this case there may not be any public database where you can easily go and look up who got this funding and who didn't get this funding you may see this in ones and twos as different companies are outed, quote/unquote i thought it was interesting in the shake shack writeup what they said about this they said there was so much confusion in the early days of this, they didn't know how this program would be structured, who it was for and how best to take advantage of it so they decided to just go for it and see what happened i think a lot of people were in the same boat, but over time, as the politics around it and public impression solidifies, companies may find themselves on the wrong side of it so you may see more companies deciding to do what shake shack did here. >> that's what i was going to ask. do you think we'll see more companies give back?

do you think we'll see universities, as i mentioned the harvard example is a unique one given the large endowment they have by the way, lots of ivy league schools and others took money. should they -- >> yeah. >> -- in large part you could argue there are going to be lost revenues here as a result and maybe they would have had to scale back employment if this whole project effectively is employment for all project you'd almost want everybody to get the money. given that not everybody could get the money, it becomes more complicated. >> right there are these unsympathetic actors if you have billions of dollars in cash sitting around, the public is not going to be sympathetic to you getting a bailout with taxpayer money. the other big question here is, how practical is this program going to be for a lot of these companies? the deal is, you take the loan, it's forgiven if you have your employees all on the payroll eight weeks from now but if some of these companies getting this money are in states where the lockdown orders are

still in effect at the end of that time period, it's just not going to tb practical for them to have everybody back on the payroll because there's no business coming in the doors for a lot of companies, they're making a decision to take a loan in the hope it will be forgiven entirely but putting themselves in a risky position where they be taking on additional debt if the lockdown order is still in place in their region when the clock expires on the loan. it's a very stressful and challenging thing for small business owners to navigate. it's really causing a lot of fear and a lot of pain out there. >> eamon, it's not just that some of these loans aren't even making it to the people who need it most. the program calls for minimum loan of $1 million the independent community bankers over the weekend called for $100,000 lower limit and then there was another group, the american backers association, says it should be as low as $50,000. you would think those are the businesses that need that money the most that don't have

anything to fall back on, especially with some of these universities with their massive endowments, claiming they need it that's nuts. >> the politics around this -- this was put together very, very quickly. all of these unintensed consequences we're talking about maybe they just didn't have time to think all of that true. now the question is, can they go back and change the terms of this when they go back and do this new bill? if you go back and change the terms of it, you'll havesquawk from people who took the original deal who say, wait a second, this isn't fair if you're changing what's available out there right now. it's a very fluid situation. nobody involved in this has ever seen anything like this before so everybody is throwing ideas out there and trying to see what works. the thing that concerns me, becky, just this question of pure scale you're talking about something approaching the size of the total t.a.r.p. bailout of $700 billion by the time you add up these two funds of ppp that's an enormous program and

it may not come anywhere near far enough in order to back up all of america's small businesses if you're trying to bail out the entire small business sec, to you might need more money than that at some point congress will be tapped out and not every small business will be able to get a loan >> eamon, just two clarifications one, my understanding of the disclosure process and all of this is that there was going to be a six-month window, meaning you wouldn't be able to find out this information for six months. but after six months, through freedom of information acts and other things, there would be closure or at least the opportunity for disclosure is that not right? >> i'm not sure -- andrew, i'm not sure i'll have to go back and check the text of the bill whether there's every going to be any one central database where any american - >> i think you're right about the one central database. >> right >> and then the other quick

question, this is for small businesses out there, if, as you said, eight weeks later you can't keep everybody employed, my understanding was had you kept everybody employed for the last eight weeks that the grant or that the loan would turn into a grant and be forgiven regardless of whether you have to lay them off in the future because your business is still challenged. >> right as long as you -- as long as you get to that point and have the people on the payroll, it will be forgiven. a lot of -- i've talked to a lot of small business owners who say, you know what, we don't have any revenue at all coming in right now it doesn't make sense for me to have people on the payroll i just can't afford to take the risk of not bunkering down and just battening down the hatches on my business as low as i can go going into what is a totally uncertain period of time i think there's a a lot of people who say, we just might

not be able to come back at the end of the time period so, therefore, we have to lay all those people off. >> i'll throw one more wrinkle into this. you have the states and municipalities that need help with this, and that makes sense. i was reading over the weekend how in illinois, i believe it's the president of the senate there, is asking for $41 billion, $10 billion to bail out their pension fund, which everybody has known has been under pressure and underfunded forever. that's where it will get messy and tricky what is something you should shd deserve bailout money for because the government said to shut down and what is something you're trying to lump everything, every problem you'veer had, everything you haven't prepared for and lump that in to say the federal government should pick that up, meaning the taxpayers should pick that up eamon? >> that's a great question, becky. at this point we'll see all these states and localities coming with their hands out to the federal government

so far the trump administration and rendz on the hill have thanh the position that it's really notal role of the federal government to bail out every state budget everywhere across the country. the president has said, you know, we'll look at that in the next bill, but they don't want to do it in this bill that is likely to move this week and the question is, if you're new york state, if you've seen governor cuomo hold these press briefings day in and day out, suddenly you see revenues go to zero the states can't justprint money the way the federal government can they're in a situation where they have to play with real money and they have huge budgetary holes to fill. how are they going to solve that problem? it is a massive and unprecedented problem. they're looking to the federal government you have a lot of people in the federal government saying, look, that's not our problem, that's not our role >> eamon, thank you. we'll check in with you a little later. it's good to see you on this monday morning. coming up, retail stocks have been battered by the pandemic lockdown. we'll i take a look at how the

landscape could change bit end of the summer. today's big number -- 15.51% that's how much the s&p 500 gained in the last two weeks ekf inonstigex's secd raht we ogas.

number of retailers are taking drastic steps after be, hit hard by the coronavirus. neiman marcus missed a bond payment and is preparing for bankruptcy protection. nordstrom suspended orders and macy's is exploring options to shore up its finances. joining us to talk about the long-term industry impact, steven sedov, former chairman and ceo of sachs and national retail federation. what do you expect neiman to do? how would that look? what will stay open and what are you expecting? >> i think the neiman situation is an example of what's really going on in retail right now where these companies first were facing major liquidity issues. now they're facing the question of what's it going to look like to open. and then what are sales going to

be like? neiman's has a situation where they had highly leveraged, much too much debt. it was a company on the edge with its debt before the coronavirus hit and now thaur going to -- i think that bankruptcy will allow them to wipe out part of their debt. maybe they'll end up closing some stores. i don't know if they'll liquidate or not that's a possibility there are a lot of possibilities other people might come in richard saks has been talking about wanting to open neiman a lot of that story still to be written. >> some valuable assets. i can't imagine bergdorf doesn't emerge from this he this won't close in new york, will they? >> no. neiman is a $4 billion company making a fair amount of ebidta it has much too much debt. it's a good example of highly

level rajjed lbl type of companies do well when they're growing but when you don't have revenue, you have a fundamental problem with these businesses. one of the issues we have to think about is we went through a phase, the first phase of this crisis is liquidity. companies laid off or furloughed an enormous amount of people, stopped paying rented. now we're out of that phase. some of them won't make it through that piece now we're talking about how do you open a store that's a big issue because are people going to run be back to the malls? all of the financial aid programs have been bridges to allow you to get to the next phase with an assumption that the consumer is going to come back and shop pretty quickly and the real issue is, what is the recovery rate? is it a "v," a long-tailed "u,"

is it an "l" the real question is how soon will the consumer back if the consumers don't shop bit fourth quarter. none of these businesses were built for a no revenue model. >> what about the malls, is that ever going to be a business model that works again or when will that be a business model that works again >> i think that's the fundamental question i think the mall will revive itself outlet malls, the outdoor malls will probably come back more quickly than some of the indoor malls. the "a" malls, the premiere malls, will find ways to operate well you'll have a lot of carnage in the mall industry. apparel companies are probably the toughest because they've taken the biggest hit so far you're seeing sales that are -- even the month of march where it was half the month, they were down 50% what you'll have to find is how does an apparel company come

back how do people try on apparel products when they're not comfortable whether or not the virus is there these are questions that have to be sorted through. and so i think the mall is going to be slower than some of the free standing stores this is really a story about winners and losers and the companies providing bake basics, the wall matter, targets are coming back. they're doing remarkably well. the mall operators will have to test their way into this given what are the new standards you have to test every employee. what are you going to be doing for people coming to the mall comfortable that it's safe >> steve, thank you. we appreciate it we'll be watching this week to see what happens on all these fronts, especially neiman marcus thank you, andrew. coming up when we return, we'll talk about the investment moves that the rich are making during the market turmoil. plus, stock futures are

getting worse. they're now down near 400 points we'll keep an eyes on the market. a programming note, tomorrow on know "squawk box" we'll be join joined by former starbucks ceo howard schultz he has some ideas you don't want to miss about the world of small business and what needs to happen to help keep them from going out of business. as we head to a break, here are some images of the pandemic impact from yesterday from across america

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as the market volatility increased in late march and early april, wealthy investors were busy trading stocks, finding opportunity. robert franks joins us now hi, robert. >> good morning. market declines have wiped out $7 trillion in stock wealth since february but some of the wealthiest investors saw this as a big buying and selling opportunity. two-thirds of investors lost a

significant amount of wealth between mid-march to early april, according to a survey by spectrum group a third had a small loss or no loss most millionaires did not change their portfolios leading into and out of that march 23rd low one in five bought stocks. only 15% sold stocks but the very wealthy were far more active in the period. nearly 40% of investors with 15 million or more in total investments bought stocks during that period. about half of them sold stocks the selling shows they didn't necessarily time the market well at least not for this latest bottom they might have been harvesting losses for income tax purposes and maybe buying back those same shares either way, there were four or five times more likely to buy or sell stocks than everyday investors. of course, they can afford it. for now, more affluent investors are staying on sidelines

they have a third of portfolios in cash. that's the highest level since 2009 most affluent investors do not believe the market will return to previrus levels before the november election. guys >> one of the lead stories in the journal today, short sellers. record highs, people that are short the market >> right >> i don't know how you interpret that we know what happens sometimes when sh's short. other times you can do pretty well but sometimes short sales need to be covered at some point. >> right i think with this group, again, this is people with 15 million or more, it's not a binary, i'm shorting the market or i'm long the market it's really just a lot of activity around, perhaps, rotating out of sectors, perhaps upgrading their portfolios, perhaps some are balancing, perhaps some losses that the wealthy can do for tax purposes to offset income tax gains

the point is there were far more churn and trading activity by those well capitalized investors rather than a lot of the experts say, well, just hands off the wheel during this point. don't panic, don't trade, just stay the long course, whereas you saw the wealthy who again in 2009 came out better because they didn't sell off the bottom and started buying in early 2009 the lesson learned here is maybe it is wise to go in and actually seize the opportunities during this period and these market volatility and upgrade and switch around and harvest those losses >> well, we shall see. every article i've seen written in the past, like over the weekend is, stock market has the best two weeks since the '30s, since the 1930s and there's "x" number of americans have been laid off something is wrong here. so, the obvious sort of consensus thinking of people that don't -- i don't know

we'll see what finally happened. that's obviously very easy to be bearish right now. that's for sure. >> and in 2009 we saw the same disconnect the market was way up and we had 11% unemployment and people say it doesn't make sense but that was because of the monetary and fiscal stimulus. >> among other things. robert, thanks becky? >> thanks, joe. when we come back, crude prices plummeting this morning as demand dried up during the pandemic lockdown. right now as we head to break, let's take a look at the pandemic impact on flights in europe comparing airborne flights this year versus last year "squawk box" will be right back. these days, it's anything but business as usual. that's why working together is more important than ever. at&t is committed to keeping you connected. so you can keep your patients cared for.

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good morning, everybody. welcome back weave been watching the u.s. equity futures and there's a lot of red this monday morning looks like the dow futures are indicated down by 360 points a lot is coming because of what's happening with oil prices oil prices down sharply this morning. wti was trading at $14, but down 26%, so that's putting massive pressure across the board. it looks like an all-out panic right now when it comes to oil prices andrew >> thanks, becky we'll continue this consideration with wti down so sharply this morning as demand continuing to deteriorate for oil around the globe prices are down about 75% so far this year-to-date on pace for

its worst year since 1983. joining us right now to talk about what comes next is haleema croft and mike santoli you know, joe and becky and i were talking about this even last week. if wti crude was normally at these prices you would not just have an all-out panic in the oil market, but all-out panic in the equities market. why is that not happening? >> i mainly focus on the oil markets. this is an interesting, unique story to the oil market. i mean, what has been hit the hardest by this pandemic has been, you know, vehicle traffic use. people are not flying. they are not driving so, this is a real story about storage filling up we'll be in a situation now where cushing could reach ten tops by mid-may. there's a lot of concern about what comes next, particularly

around the storage issue >> so what does come next when it comes to the storage issue? >> i mean, we're expecting, you know, cushing to reach ten tops by mid-may there are other places you can store this crude, potentially louisiana, but until we get signs that u.s. gasoline demand is improving, people are going to drive again, i mean, we're continuing to be very bearish on the demand outlook for oil now, there was this opec cut last week, this historic cut there was a lot of focus on that that's really sort of turning off the tap in the bathtub that's overflowing the situation could be far worse. the problem is, those cuts don't take effect until may 1st. there's still a lot of crude that's on the water right now, that is going to refineries that do not need it that is the challenge right now. those opec cuts are not coming until may. a ton of crude on the water and demand continuing to collapse. >> real quick before i get to

mike, is your expectation come may, come june, come july, how quickly do you think it gets turned back on are you anticipating it gets turned back on in a meaningful way? you're in the same position we all are, we're trying foto figu out the timeline, right? >> we're trying to figure out the timeline of the pandemic when do people start driving again? we do think the opec cuts are important because what it saves, potentially saves, you know, the fall, it saves 2021, but everyone will be watching. what's the trajectory? when is the u.s. reopen? when are people comfortable driving again. u.s. demand is the key to the oil market. >> mike, you want to weigh in on the disconnect between the oil market and -- the other piece of this is just how many energy companies are going to be filing for bankruptcy at these types of prices what does that do to the larger

economy? >> i mean, obviously the extremes in the near term prices, normally you would think it would create a greater ripple effect but the reason it's not is the equity market is not giving the markets any more information than what we knew. if you look at june crude futures, for example, they popped back above 20 this is a near-term indigestion issue. on the high yield point and how many energy companies might not make it, the fed is there essentially saying, we're not going to allow that to be a disorderly default cycle across all of high-yield debt or other stris. you see the likes of, you know, ford motor company and marriott being able to raise enormous amounts of credit. it seems as if that's been backstopped on that side i'm not going to deny that the equity market is operating in the zone where it feels free at the moment to ignore a lot of the very near-term economic issues even bond yields where they are are not that helpful for equities again, the equity market says,

yeah, we got that. that's why, by the way, lafs week it was the f.a.n.g. type stocks working, not cyclical ones i think it is a sort of perception disconnect but not necessarily at the root of what's going on in the equity markets is ignoring all that and saying, we understand this and we're implicitly making a bet this is a one to two quarter shutdown period. if the equity market's wrong about that, then this rally has gone too far >> your thought in terms of what happens to the oil patch in terms of the fact that we do seem to have a backstop by the fed. you do have mlps and others that have remarkable yields right now. is that a safe place to keep your money >> again, we look at this -- i cover the commodities. again, right now, we don't see any near-term relief for this

oil market i mean, there are going to be questions about what more can president trump do is he potentially going to pay producers to keep the oil in the ground will we start filling up the strategic petroleum reserve? that can help incrementally but there's not a lot president trump can do right now to fix the tee mann the demand situation so we remain concerned about the oil in the near term. meantime, when we come back, a lot more on "squawk box" ahead. we'll talk about the latest details surrounding the coronavirus. as we head to break, take a look at the biggest decliners in the s&p 500 premarket. a reminder, you can watch or listen to us live any time on the cnbc app we'll be right back afr isteth

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the best entertainment experience.s xfinity x1. welcome back u.s.equity futures at this hou indicated under some pressure. down about 365 points on the dow

jones. the s&p down just under 40 nasdaq indicated down more than 100 points and then we've got oil, at least in the spot month, down there. i'm wondering what happens to future months. i would have asked haleema that. we'll see if we see the future months come down to levels like that, which are just unbelievable i don't know where gas can go. there is 90-cent a gallon gas around the country. >> yeah. the future months, from what i heard, i think it's out $20 to maybe $30. but all the way out, those contracts have come under pretty severe pleasure. $30 looks better than $14, but if you're thinking over the long term, months from now, that's a scary outlook if that's telling you something about the demand picture around the globe. >> well, there's no demand >> yeah. >> sometimes i'm sitting outside, becky, and i don't see

any planes flying around >> i know. it's a spooky thing. when i do see one, i stop and look up at it because it's such a rare occurrence you do see a plane. i started my car for the first time in a month just to make sure my battery doesn't die. >> i don't do much, but i have not be -- you know, get some curbside stuff, go out and pick up some stuff occasionally i heard eamon say that, he hadn't started his car in like a month or something. >> yeah. if felt weird. it's such a comfortable seat you forget what it feels like -- >> it's surreal because it was a beautiful day yesterday. it is truly invisible. trump uses that term a lot, the ip visible enemy, but it just feels unreal i wake up some mornings and think maybe i'm going to wake up, but i never do this from, you know what i mean it's real. >> yeah, joe, i was going to ask you, really, what does it feel like in times square we keep seeing the empty shots

>> i jumped out of the car and walk the five feet but i put a mask on because the police are everywhere and everybody i've seen has a mask. so, even people in here, i mean -- we're far away from each other. i was wondering -- >> oh, mac >> i don't want these guys coming in here and yelling at me for not wearing a mask but if they did, then that's next but i told you, i have the cat lack of masks right here, the n-95 with the -- >> the n-95, right >> all right. when we come back, we'll talk to the ceo of a hospital on the front lines about the way they are fighting this pandemic. right now, though, as we head to a break, take a look at the companies that short sellers have targeted most recently. these are travel-related firms, including carnival, royal caribbean, marriott and wynn

resorts. a general report says bets against the s&p etf rose going back to 2016 i think the number was only $60 billion at the start this is as high as we've seen based on those charts the. incredibly high levels we'll talk more about what that might mean e military community, we've seen you go through tough times and every time, you've shown us, you're much tougher your heart, courage and commitment has always inspired us and now it's no different so, we're here with financial strength, stability and experience you can depend on and the online tools you need because you have always set the highest standard and reaching that standard is what we're made for ♪

about 200 patients have received it. anecdotally as you've said there have been some really encouraging results, patients who have been on a ventilator have been able to be extubated the next day like everything we do at mayo clinic, we need the scientific rigor. therefore, we will be looking at the first 200 cases and continue to analyze to make sure we actually subject this initiative to the same rigor as any other medication or pharmacological agent. >> that was dr. jean ferrugia. he was the ceo of mayo clinic. he was speaking with us on friday when he told us they treated over 200 patients with blood plasma we have an update now.

the mayo clinic tells us they saw a surge after that segment on friday. as of last night 700 patients had received the convalescent plasma to learn about that treatment and see if you're eligible to donate plasma you can go to uscovidplasma.org. joining us is a guest who is also using the blood of covid-19 patients to try and treat others robert garrett is the ceo of hackensack meridian health >> good morning, becky thank you for having me back >> i don't know exactly what this is. how do you use that? >> so this is actually a very inspiring story if you think about all of the tragedy that's been out there, all the pain and suffering from covid-19. here just in the last week we've

had over 3,000 volunteers who have donated their blood, their plasma, and what happens is they're tested for antibodies and if they have a certain concentration of antibodies, then those antibodies are put into a serum and they're infused in patients who are very, very sick with covid-19 and as your segment previously showed, there is some anecdotal evidence that this is very, very promising. we just started the study. we are participating in the mayo clinic study but we are doing our own serum as well at hackensack medical center. the early results are promising. i can't think of anything better than this in terms of a hopeful sign if you think of diseases in the past, whether they be measles or more recently sars, antibody serum has really been used as an effective treatment.

we are all hopeful that this study is going to be successful and that this will be, you know, a very legitimate therapeutic agent to fight covid-19, so very exciting so far. >> i know it's early, but what happens at least anecdotally with some of the patients you've tried this on? >> so, you know, it is kind of early yet, but we did see -- as an example, the first patient that we infused was a woman who was 33 weeks pregnant and i can tell you she's doing a lot better now she's had a couple of the infusions. started about a week ago again, you know, one person doesn't make a trend or a conclusion, but i have to tell you that that was very, very encouraging to see i'm happy to report both she and the baby are doing better. >> some of the doctors are

donating their own plasma. >> yeah, in that particular week, we used our doctors. have one of our doctors who recovered from the coronavirus, even one of the first donors and he had the antibody in sufficient concentration that we were able to infuse his antibodies -- his plasma into this patient so it's really great and as i said, you know, 3,000 people have already stepped forward. we're expecting that to really ramp up significantly because this story is being covered by you guys and others out there, i think it's just a great way for people who have gone through this experience and recovered to really help others and some of the sickest patients are actually receiving the plasma infusion. so we're really excited about it there's also other trials going on throughout our health network that are showing some promise. you might have heard about the

drug remedicommen remdesivir ans early anecdotal evidence. >> doctor, the plasma infusions seemed to work on sars and it seemed to work on h1n1 but not so much on ebola the mortality rate was higher. i don't know if anybody's antibodies worked. that makes sense and then so maybe this will -- we should be positive about this having positive effects with covid? >> i think so. i think, you know, again, early, promising signs. still a ways to go on the trial and i'm happy that this is actually part of a national effort because it really needs to be. as i said, there's other therapies out there that are being tested under trial now that look promising as well. i think the idea here is if we can get some therapies that

actually are tried and expected to work, hopefully we'll be ready for the next surge, which as we've heard from dr. fauci and others, could come as early as next fall, early winter we probably won't have a vaccine by then, but if we can have effective therapies, a lot better at treating them. >> doctor, thank you for everything we appreciate it all of us people that live in new jersey anyway, thanks coming up, futures under haessure this morning. momed el erian will join us in the next hour. we'll be right back. ♪

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the senate nearing a deal for the second round of funding for small business we have the details straight ahead. a crude crash. oil prices falling more than 20% today as producers run out of places to put it all and a big week for earnings that will give investors a look into the coronavirus crisis and the state of business. we'll get you ready for the trading day ahead as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc good morning, i'm andrew ross

sorkin along with joe kernen back at the nasdaq and becky quick this morning take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour on this monday morning it does look like we're going to open in the red. down about 341 points on the dow right about now. the s&p 500 looking to open down about 40 points and the nasdaq looking to open off about 90 points maybe you want to check out prices of oil because this is a remarkable number to even look at oil prices on the may contract for wti plunging the futures contract set to expire tomorrow. among the issues at play, slumping demand as you would imagine and so much supply that space is hard to find just to store the stuff. a barrel will cost you right now $13.10 joe. >> buy it quick though, andrew buy it quick buy it quick. >> we were at the gas station yesterday. it wasn't reflected in my gas

price. >> no. that's like the prime rate come on. comes down a lot slower than when it goes up. >> on the credit cards, right. >> seems the same way with gas prices you know, that expiration can't come soon enough tomorrow we'll be talking about it at 22 it's weird, isn't it, the futures? but it is 13 right now, which is just unbelievable. i'm trying to figure out, 1999 i thought we were partying like it's 1999. maybe we were worried about y2k. >> no, prince's song was way too early. >> maybe it's pets.com the lady, she's somewhere else, isn't she? she has a new job? >> yeah. >> big week of earnings. we'll get an idea of some important metrics and outlooks some of the names that could get us into the crisis netflix, intel, coca-cola, american express among dozens of s&p 500 companies that are set to roll off results.

and the s&p is coming off its first back-to-back weekly gain since february and quite a back-to-back gain it was the best since the '30s. the nasdaq, the s&p and the dow are all about 30% above the lows hit on march 23rd. joining us on the news line, savita subramanian bank of america securities head of u.s. equities will you be selling into this 30% gain, a? that's the first question. b, did you tell anyone to get more positive on march 23rd? >> well, you know, on march 23rd i remember -- i think i actually went on tv that day and i said i think this is a stock picker's market there are some stocks that have been beaten down so much and been sold off so summarily that there's an opportunity to buy them at what we'll look back on

as all-time lows now i did not call the market bottom that day but i did call the bottom in stock selection. so i do think that we've seen that sort of play out over the last few weeks here we are today. pe multi-at this point lgs at m. two thingshave happened, the market has come back pretty aggressively from the lows second thing that's happened is earnings expectations have been marked down. if you look at the price to earnings ratio, it's at almost the exact same ratio it was at at the market highs which is interesting, maybe a little bit unnerving. one of the things that we're noticing right now is this earnings season isn't necessarily driving as much clarity as we would like.

to your point, if we get a break through about medication or some kind of sign that we're going to resume business as usual or something is approximating it soon, i think that would be the up side risk. >> savita, why would the market be factoring in a v-shaped recovery when not a single expert that's coming on here is forecasting a v-shaped recovery. >> i don't know if they're listening to the experts. >> that's a pretty good idea there's nothing more consensus now than it's going to -- i guess it's not going to be a light switching on, it's going to be the sun coming up is the way people are characterizing re-opening things. >> right right. right. >> in the best case they're talking about a u. they're talking about a u that goes out a year or even 18 months >> yeah. yeah yeah >> the market's -- >> i don't think it's going to be like that here's the way you should look

at stocks. look at normalized earnings. how much do normalized earnings change from pre-coronavirus. >> right. >> not that much >> we'll see depends on which stock you're talking about. movie theaters, those normalized earnings are probably going to change cruise ships, those normalized earnings are never normalized. >> normalized earnings are going to change if we never go to the movies again, so that's what we need to figure out if we stop going to the movies for a couple of quarters, normalized earnings don't change all that much. if we stop going to movies, 50% of us stop going to the movies, then normalized earnings takes a hit. that's what we need to figure out. our surmisable is that normalized earnings don't change that much from pre-covid a couple of things happen. we don't travel as much. we use tech more on the flip side, the positive there is that we pay -- companies have lower costs they're not going to have as

high travel budgets. they're going to have bigger margins comingout of this because the cost of labor is likely to be lower and the cost of, you know, doing business is likely to be lower maybe we don't see as much demand for commercial real estate, but that translates into wider margins. so i think that's the calculus, the math we need to do is figure out kind of two years out what is the world going to look like relative to today? and chances are it's not going to look that different i mean, think about 9/11 9/11 happened. we all said nobody's ever going to fly again, then a couple of years later we were flying again, more than we were pre-9/11 those are some of the things we need to think about in which case i think stocks still look like a better opportunity than bonds. you're getting a lot of healthy dividend yield for stocks that are like four or five times the amount that you're getting in the ten year i mean, that's a pretty healthy amount of income for income

starved investors. >> savita, you said we're going to have lower costs for labor. does that mean -- >> yes. >> -- that you're also anticipating a lot larger unemployment number -- >> yeah. >> -- or you believe companies are going to be paying employees less where are you coming up with that part? >> probably both i mean, think about what's happening this year. we've already seen the unemployment rate shoot up i think our economists are forecasting 10% unemployment rate by the end of this year the big problem coming into this year was a very tight labor market, and that was starting to impact margins maybe that continues this year as a lot of companies have, you know, kind of committed to retaining their work forces, but i think the further this drags out, the more slack in the labor market we see. that's typical. >> play that out, savita if you have a larger unemployment number and the consumer is what has kept this

country's economy afloat for so long, what happens >> so that's the question, is this going to be a v or a u? let's say this is just a temporary dislocation to demand, flight this is a temporary dislocation to demand that hits the economy in a very major way. when we come out of this, one could argue that there's a couple of things that happen as is typical of coming out of recessions, margins are much wider because companies have cut costs and there's more slack in the system there's some deflationary pressure from a recession. coming out of this, what we need to all think about is what's going to be different post coronavirus versus pre-coronavirus. maybe people don't bias much, you know, big ticket items to your point, there could be areas within the consumer discretionary sector that buffers. we've downgraded the sector on those concerns but i do think

we're going to be in an environment where we still demand a lot of tech we still demand financial services there are still sectors that are going to come back from the dead and those would be the areas that i would be deploying capital. i still think this is a stock picker's market and we're going to look back even today and see good opportunity. >> savita, thanks. we appreciate it thank god for the internet that's held up pretty well saved me for the weekend season 3 becky, you have ideas for me -- you know i can see you again. i can see everything >> i know. i know. >> i'm watching andrew. >> that's fine. >> andrew, i'm spying -- i can see what you're doing at all times. so what were you -- >> watch out. >> i can see you too. >> i might pick my nose. >> we just found that out today. >> we know you've been spying on us for five weeks. >> andrew's had one all along.

that doesn't surprise me. >> i've been telling everybody, the producers to get you the access to this thing so we can all see each other. >> you were the first to have it anyway, beck, what -- >> honestly this morning i found out andrew was spying on us for five weeks let me tell you guys real quickly -- >> i did not change my snow tires. >> you've been driving your car? >> no, i don't drive >> here's a hint i just -- i started mine for the first time in a month yesterday, and i'm reading -- somebody sent me on twitter something from "consumer reports" that you've got to do more than just start your car the gas, it actually starts to go bad in three months, maybe less it gets gummy. it can gum up things from your fuel pump to fuel injectors. i guess you have to go out for a joyride to make sure you're not doing damage. >> another reason to own a tesla in addition to saving the world. >> what can i say? >> anyway, we've got a lot more

coming up on "squawk box." when we come back, we've got a big interview. the ceo of roche is going to join us on antibody testing. you do not want to miss this before we head to the break, take a look at furutes this morning. "squawk box" will be back rate after this hope isn't quarantined. first words aren't delayed. caring isn't postponed. courage isn't on hold. and love hasn't stopped. u.s. bank thanks you for keeping all of our spirits strong. we've donated millions to those in need and are always here for our customers and employees.

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here we are, matt. the two of us. welcome back to "squawk box. making headlines, novartis has won a bid to conduct a trial of hydroxychloroquine it will begin in a few weeks and will report the results as soon as possible. andrew >> okay. other pharma news, roche developing a test that can detect antibodies. joining us is roche's ceo. we wanted to welcome you back to the show thank you for being here tell us about the state of play with these antibody tests. there are so many questions about both the quality of the tests themselves and what it means to have antibodies >> we are very excited about our

new test it will be a very reliable test and that is important to see whether somebody got infected by the virus. and that will allow us two things first, it will enable us to monitor the development of infections and, second, it will allow us to monitor whether people achieved immunity from the infection. >> well, severin, i want to go to the immunity piece first. there's so much interest, obviously, in finding out if people have immunity are we convinced that if you've had covid, that you have immunity and for how long? >> it's a new virus and as such was do not have the best data yet, but it's very likely that people who got infected also developed immunity, at least for a certain time, because we see that happening also with other

coronaviruses. >> we're also hearing about reports of all sorts of tests that are flooding the market, many which have been coming from china, similar antibody tests were sent to the u.k. and a lot of them don't work how should the public and the health community think about these tests and whether, a, to take them and, b, what the result actually means? >> this is actually a big topic, and unfortunately a number of antibody tests which are already on the market are not reliable and the simple reason is that you have to take enough time and validate these tests with patients that's what we have done we are now very confident to bring a highly reliable test to the market the beginning of may. >> how quickly does the test come back? and talk about the scale in terms of how quickly you can scale this test up given how many people are going to need and want to take it?

>> that's a very important point, and unlike with molecular tests which directly measure to virus and where upscaling is a big topic, with antibody tests, actually the scaling is much easier from a technical point of view plus, there is an enormous install base of instruments and platforms out there. so we will be able to scale up quickly. as far as roche is concerned, we will put use into millions in june. >> in june several million does it scale -- i don't want to say does it scale like covid but when you think about september, for example -- >> say that again. >> already in june we will put use in the high to upper millions so this is really enormous upscaling, and we are not the only company who will be able to offer reliable antibody tests so

this will make a big difference. >> and to take this test you'll have to go to a doctor is this something you can do at home how easy is it how quick is it? >> no, you have to draw blood so typically you would go to a doctor or a nurse would take the blood and then send it to the lab. >> and how quickly typically does it come back? >> as far as the testing time as such is concerned on our platforms, the test is performed in a few hours, but then, of course, you also have to take care of the logistics. i would say typically you should have the results the next day. >> and what is the cost of the test >> we have not communicated pricing for our test, but in such a pandemic situation, pricing will not be any hurdle for access so we cannot comment then on the final price because there is

also a lot of costs by the lab itself, but as far as our price is concerned, it will not be a hurdle to access >> okay. severin, we appreciate your time and all the work that you're doing to get these tests rolled out as quickly as you can. thanks so much >> thank you very much >> becky when we come back, the recently passed c.a.r.e.s. act can help people access their retirement money penalty free. but will all qualify probably not we'll have that story when we come back. then mohamed el erian will be up. oil prices down by 26% just today. first though before we get to a break, let's take a look at those oil prices right now it looks like things for wti, we did see them below $14 a barrel this morning. in fact, now we're below $13 a barrel down 29% to $12.89 a

barrel this is something to watch we'll talk to momeabhad out this and much more. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc for many of our members, being prepared... won't be a new thing. and it won't be their first experience with social distancing. overcoming challenges is what defines the military community. usaa has been standing with them, for nearly a hundred years. and we'll be here to serve for a hundred more.

welcome back to "squawk box. cnbc has partnered with acorn. it's called invest in you, ready, set, grow the recently passed c.a.r.e.s. act can help people access retirement money penalty free. we are joined by sharon epperson with that story. shar sharon. >> reporter: andrew, if someone has contracted the covid-19 or if your family member has contracted it or if you have

faced financial hardship due to the coronavirus pandemic, you may be eligible to partake in a couple of options in the c.a.r.e.s. act the first option is to take a penalty free withdrawal of up to $100,000 or 100% of the balance in your ira or 401k. you can do this without having to pay the typical 10% early withdrawal penalty if you are under 59 1/2 you'll get three years to pay taxes on the distribution or replace the money and owe no taxes on it. the second allows you to borrow $100,000 on the 401k and the previous lone amount was $50,000. you can delay payments for a year these are not automatic. your employer has to implement them and many are sitting on the fence now. a new survey shows fewer than

half of 401k sponsors, 45% of them, say they will allow the $100,000 distribution. analysts in 1/3 plan to increase the loan amount to $100,000. for someone who has been laid off or furloughed, paying back the loan may be very difficult to do and also the more viable option may be to take a withdrawal we talked to kevin collins who has retirement plans at t row price. people want to find out more about the distribution the average distribution amount that they're asking for is about $18,000, but there are some that are asking for that full 100,000. back to you. >> the other question that i was curious about is how can you find out if your 401k plan has the options?

do i just go online? >> the best thing, go to the retirement benefits portal on your company's website contact your company's hr department keep in mind it's only been a couple of weeks since the c.a.r.e.s. act has passed. they're trying to figure out what the administrative costs will be for them, what the administrative hurdles will be for them to implement this and also what their employees want collins was telling us he's seeing more retail, travel, hospitality industries adopting some of these provisions, but some companies may adopt one and not the other. you may be able to take out $100,000 of distribution and not take out that much in a loan some may not offer either one of them retirement plan consultants told us participants should advocate for themselves if this is something you need and your company has not allowed that yet, advocate for yourself and say it's needed and perhaps that will come through for your company as well. >> okay. sharon, thank you. and for more on what you can do,

you can go to cnbc.com/investinyou one last thing we should note, nbc universal and comcast are investors in acorns. >> this is true. thanks. still to come on "squawk box," allianz chief economic advisor mohamed el erian later, we'll have the latest on the bailout. what companies are going to conserve cash. plus, boeing is restarting production in washington state before we go to break, a look again at oil once again, amazing. it's got a 12 handle prices plunging over the glut, ene demand slump and nowhere to ev put it thanks to the virus. "squawk box" coming right back

welcome back to "squawk box. unbelievable shot. that is what it looks like out there. mack, will we ever have the ball drop on new year's with 1 million people again here are the futures this morning. you're very optimistic that's good. i appreciate that. futures this morning down about 407 points oof back-to-back weeks with gains in the equity markets. the biggest gains in two weeks since the '30s, but we are sharply lower. just about on a percentage basis, not that much

nobody is waking up on monday seeing 400 points down, but that's where we are. the other big story this morning is oil which is obviously the -- i think some of the european markets have been up when you have oil at $12 and change even though it is kind of a spot month, it just is so disconcerting. there it is. if you get imported beer, andrew, you definitely pay more, 5, $6 for a six-pack than a barrel of oil. >> i know. >> unbelievable. >> social oil. >> i know. >> joe, where are you sitting? which shot >> i'm in my normal spot i'm in my normal spot. >> there's no coffee cart behind you anymore. >> there's nothing anywhere except i've got some of new york's finest, which we appreciate most of them en masse. but there's nothing happening out there. just really isn't.

just nothing happening we are shut down we're shut down. >> i like that shot. >> sorry, andrew >> it's okay we're going to get over to steve liesman because investors are not only focusing on corporate earnings as you would imagine but also on when the economy would re-open. it is the trillion dollar -- multi-trillion dollar question steve liesman joins us hopefully with some answers with his results from cnbc's rapid update steve. >> reporter: andrew, thanks. you were interested with a new drug that came out -- that seemed to show some effects on friday, and the idea that the president was talking about re-opening the economy did economists gather any of that optimism in their survey? unfortunately, the answer is no. the second quarter decline is worse than we originally thought. a little bit better on the rebound. we'll go back and take a look at

this about a 6% decline forecast for the first quarter. 34% is now the average of our 11 forecasters for the second quarter followed by a 15% and a 13% q3 and q4 rebound. not too bad, but if you put it altogether, the average for 2020 is still for a 4% decline. so we don't get back in those two quarters right there in the second half what we lost in the first half i'll give you some of the individual forecasts out there barclays now has the prize for the most pessimistic forecast. forecasting a 45% decline in the second quarter followed by a 35% increase goldman at 34% decline followed by a 19% these are quarter on quarter annualized it is both the rebound and the decline are amplified by making these annualized citi right in the middle, 28%

decline followed by 23% increase constraints that economists look at, do we come back? how many businesses are closed permanently because of this downturn a lot of this depends on the effectiveness of the small business loans how much retail gets shuttered permanently? there was a trend already of closing retail stores. do they come back or does this accelerate the trend of closure. oil production will be the big deal it was the marginal producer, the marginal capital investment dollar in the u.s. economy before the shutdown. will government stimulus follow relief it's thinking about what's happening as simply relief and not stimulus jpmorgan writes over the weekend, even once areas re-open, the amount of economic activity will depend on people's willingness to go out and work and spend money. our forecast still anticipates

that restrictions will remain in place through april and may. activity won't pick up on the national level until june. june would be great if we could get it back by then, that would be in time for a third quarter rebound. why do we follow this? the economists themselves say there's a lot of doubt in this what we're doing is following the trend. is the idea of the downturn getting worse or better? is the rebound getting stronger? unfortunately, that is the case. stronger, deeper decline followed by a rebound. not enough for what we're going to lose here, becky. >> yikes steve, it's a lot to try to get your head around a lot of number crunching. thank you for doing that joining us to talk much more about the economy, the markets, steve, stick around for some of this, too. mohamed el erian is allianz chief economic advisor what do you think of steve's numbers and what we can really

expect for the rest of this year >> as steve says, this is really uncertain. i agree with the direction of movement my own numbers unfortunately are a lot worse. the imf numbers that i have here are a lot worse. if you take the year as a whole, the imf projects minus 7.7% growth for the u.s i think maybe at minus 10 to minus 15% for the u.s. this is a big hit. as you see from the oil market, even the benefits, lower oil price means more dollars in consumer's pockets even that doesn't work in this economy. so i'm a little bit more worried than what the consensus of the economists is out there right now. >> mohamed, just over the last month you get to this crisis point where you hear companies like nieman marcus might be filing for bankruptcy as early as today you hear that with other restaurants, other places. a lot of retailers say if this lasts throughout the month of may, they have to follow suit with that.

they are continued to be closed down across the country with no place taking in any revenue. that gets to be a much tougher scenario i guess what are the cumulative effects the longer this goes on. how do you figure out some of the black swan possibilities >> that's what scares me most, becky. we are going to have a series of bankruptcies and a series of sovereign efaults. we are going to see people unable to pay because there's no revenue coming in. you heard that earlier on your show from the former ceo of sax. models are not built for no revenue coming in. so the big risk out there is that we get defaults if you get defaults, then policy has to make really difficult decision who do you bail out and what terms? that's the treasury. then on the other side, you have the fed now in the higher market do they pick names do they pick winners and losers? what do they do? so defaults and bankruptcies are a big risk and one that we have to keep an eye out for

>> that is a major risk factor out there. >> it's real i don't, andrew. it's out of our own imagination. i care about the balance sheet i have no problem with them taking on the liquidity risk i have no problem with taking on a credit risk. taking on default risk in a big way is what i'm worried about. i don't see it, andrew, but i wouldn't have seen high yield. >> mohamed, how do we prevent these types of bankruptcies you're talking about when a small number of firms gobbled up all the money that was out there already, the ppp there are lots of others waiting in line and the minimum loan of

$1 million that was originally set up makes it so that lots of very small businesses wouldn't qualify for that money how do we keep this going? because the amount of money we've poured out to this point is mind boggling, and then you get to the point where we have to deal with the states, municipalities okay, we've only done this for eight weeks, we need to do it again after that how do you start getting your arms around the idea that there's not going to be bankruptcies like that >> that's the problem. we are all assuming this is a one-round game if you use game theory if we just keep them going for six, eight weeks, maybe ten weeks it will be fine. if it turns out to be a monthly round game, we have to revisit policy approach. i think it's really important that we're going to replenish the ppp. it's also very important for us to improve the way it functions. small business are critical not just to the economic health of this economy but also to the public policy health issues.

so that's critical you have to see washington move on that. small business deserves a lot of support. they cannot access the capital market they don't benefit from the fed support of capital markets so they have to have a program designed for them and limited to them >> and beyond that, mohamed, if that's your case, what would make you think, okay, things look better? what would be the game changer that makes you think, okay, never mind, this is much better than i thought it would be >> the game changer will come from two out of three health issues the vaccine, immunity, is what we want. we won't get there quickly enough to avoid the issues we're talking about, becky we need to see first better confidence in state's ability to identify and contain the spread of the virus that's about testing that's about what's going on

right now. just better containment of the spread then the second thing we need to see is this is better. we need to see critical mass on one and two which allows us to re-open the economy safely, avoid a w which i'm concerned about. we re-open for economic reasons, then we have to shut down for health reasons that would not be a good idea. so we need progress on these two issues we're getting there. every day is a win we need critical mass on these. >> mohamed, one thing to put into your -- all the things that you consider, just a couple of those anecdotal pieces of what the background level could be of people that have positive antibodies one was out in california and it was, i don't even want to say, i thought it was as high as -- i think it was 20% or something. even above that.

then there are women that were tested i think it was 19% that had positive antibodies. if it is, indeed, much higher than we know, we could get herd immunity maybe quicker than you're factoring into your assumptions. that's something to put into your assumptions that might surprise you as a positive you can think about it now so it doesn't surprise you if it comes down the road. also, we're going to get that re remdesivir the way that it works, as dr. gottleib says, it should have some type of action on viral replication because just the way that it works, and we get a much bigger study done instead of that small study that was leaked out, that could be something, too. >> yes, absolutely i go on an emotional roller coaster. i get really excited by what you've just said and i participate in calls like you do

during the week with medical professionals. so i get really excited about these things and then they tell me, japan, singapore, be careful. so, you know, we are on an emotional roller coaster it's very hard to figure out what we do know, joe, is important, every day is a win. we get a lot of information. just if we can contain the economic damage long enough so that we don't do permanent harm to the economy, the health side will come through. >> mohamed, if the numbers of asymptomatic numbers are higher -- the mortality numbers are horrific they're 40 times a flu it's like 3 or 4%. you know that probably isn't based on however many cases -- what is it, 800,000 now or whatever it is that could come down, too, the mortality if the actual number of people that have seen it and didn't even know they had it goes up. anyway, as we always say,

mohamed, hope springs eternal and, i don't know, i made some plans to go somewhere the end of the summer i'm just hoping to do that, you know what i mean some day do something sometime on a golf course somewhere >> we all want to go back, joe in the meantime, everybody stay safe. >> exactly all right. thanks, mohamed. coming up, the impact of the coronavirus on the movie industry and theaters. tough. imax ceo richard gelfan is going to join us you can watch us live on the cnbc app coming right back. don't forget to subscribe to our podcast. you'll get interviews, original content and behind-the-scenes access look for us on apple podcasts or on your favorite podcast app and subscribe to squawk pod today. you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out.

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well come back to "squawk box. futures are at session lows. the dow looks like it would open down 500 points. the s&p 500 off 50 points. nasdaq opening down 100 points the ceo of imax and the effect of the virus on the movie industry we have starbucks's former ceo, howard schultz will join us to discuss retail restaurants and what it may take to reopen the economy. "squawk" returns with all of that right after this. i know that every single

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the equity futures are down 500 points that's the worst we've seen. you have no place for oil, i don't think, sorkin. maybe up there at that spread in connecticut, you probably have live cattle. you could put a lot of stuff on that property from what i understand. >> we're going to start stockpiling the stuff up here. >> like a strategic sorkin petroleum. >> strategic reserve >> at $11. at $11 i mean, that is unbelievable we've got to get to june we've got to get to the june futures contract this should be interesting, andrew, theaters >> let's talk about the film business, particularly the imax film business. april weekend would normally bring strong box office numbers. studios have stopped reporting them as movie theaters in the united states remain closed. as china is opening, they are

looking to imax. joining us right now is richard gelfond. he is the ceo of imax. a lot of people looking to you and what's going on in your business to try to understand what may be coming to the united states and when we may all open up and what that even looks like because movie going has long been part of what it means to get back to some semblance of normal help us with how you're seeing all of this. >> andrew, the conclusion one has to draw is nobody really knows. i guess i'm in a position talking a lot for the studios and the exhibitors in asia, europe, and the u.s. to be in a decent position to make a guess, but i don't think -- >> it's yours. >> the deeper you dig, the less confident you are. so i think in china the theaters are likely, most of them, to open in june what's going on there is the

schools are just beginning to open in china next week. mostly the seniors and the high schools. after that they're talking about the junior high schools and the elementary schools i think you'll see a beginning of the opening in may, but most of them opening in june. in north america it's even harder because, as you know, we're six weeks behind china, but i think most of the studios that are dating their movies and most of the exhibitors, all of whom i talk to on almost a daily basis, are thinking probably july maybe if they're lucky, late june. and things come back to normal in mid to late july and august >> richard, one of the things we keep hearing is what it may mean to go to a movie theater whether there will be seats spaced apart, you'll take temperatures, you'll do testing out the door what are you anticipating and

what are you hearing is going on over there i think we might have just lost richard. richard, can you hear us we are going to try to have richard try to dial back in. we're going to take a quick break and hopefully get him back on the line. we were mid sentence, of course, but welcome to the technicalities and difficulties of the covid-19 life coming up when we return, futures right now. down about close to 500 points what we talked about earlier oil down and looks like equities may be trading off of that we're back hopefully with the

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breaking news. futures dropping sharply as we get ready to start the trading week pre-market numbers have worsened over the last few hours. helping to drive the pessimism. a crash in the price of crude oil. losing more than 1/3 of its value just this morning. we're going to tell you what's driving the selling. and we're going to talk with florida senator marco rubio on the push in congress to refill that critical small business aid fund after the first pot of money ran dry. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now

good morning, i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin u.s. equity futures now down 500. even 500 points on the session 499 as you can see there the nasdaq indicated down more than 100 s&p down 54. still lots of earnings expected this week with comments about the future, whatever clarity the companies can come up with not a lot obviously. there's treasury yields, down .63%. becky will tell us about oil someone wrote in a lot of cars now, the mpg, you know, the months per gallon, becky >> yeah, that's the new measurement we're talking about, that and the spr, the sorkin petroleum reserve. >> he's a sly dog. i bet you he's already got some. he's averaging down.

>> smart want to draw your attention to that price of oil. as joe mentioned, it's under a huge amount of pressure. crude oil, wti for the may contract down close to 40% not for the week, not for the month, not for the year-to-date, that's this morning on continued concerns about slumping demand the last time the wti was at levels like this was in march of 1999 we should note the prices for the may futures contract which, by the way, expires tomorrow the news isn't as bad looking out. the june contract, last i saw, was down by 12%. you are seeing an enormous amount of pressure on pretty low prices june is sitting at $22 $22.09 wti for july delivery is down 7.5% this morning and august down by 5.74%. all the way up for august because of the demand picture, wti is trading at $29.41 a barrel that's come down pretty

precipitously as the economy around the globe has shut down and killed any demand out there. the may number, by the way, as we mentioned, is set for those deliveries tomorrow. a lot of tankers have been out there, storage tanks, off shore ships that are holding oil all of those are nearing their physical space limits. you just have nowhere to put the oil. new production cuts for key players aren't set to kick in for a kweweek and a half. people are saying, where else can we stick this stuff? >> absolutely. let's continue the conversation on the markets, get a little more granular and start this hour talking about the tech sector check out this wild year to date chart. tech stocks are more than 15% over the past two weeks and only about 12% off the all-time-highs right before the coronavirus hit the united states. joining us to talk about where things are looking for opportunities is richard green founding partner at lead edge capital. good morning to you. >> good morning, andrew. >> you look at these numbers and

there are some people out there that are scratching their heads. >> it is fascinating we actually ran an analysis late last week when you looked at what the top ten components of the s&p from like mid february to like last thursday, they were down like 7% the other 490 were down 25% and that's obviously led by big tech, facebook, google, amazon, microsoft. it's actually incredible >> fairly valued in your mind? >> i don't think they're crazily expensive or crazily cheap a lot of those have balance sheet risks. if you weren't -- amazingly we're hearing new people are coming on to ecommerce so for amazon, it's booming, people are

sitting home companies like wayfair are booming. companies like zoom, you know, are great companies. i'm going to argue they're a little crazily valued at the moment it's a great company providing an amazing service in this environment. >> what do you think about advertising? facebook and google. we had barry dillard on the program last week. i know this may be a particular segment but, you know, he owns expedia. that's a company that used to have a $5 billion budget for advertising annually he said he'd be lucky if they spend $1 billion this year you have to imagine that's going to happen across the travel sector i imagine it may happen in other parts of the economy as well, which would have a real impact, i would think of the on the facebooks and googles of the world. >> it is surprising me how well facebook and google are hanging

in there we're going to have an advertising slowdown the head of sales at google, he said he thinks this will be worse than 2008, 2009 slowdown for advertising. probably will because you're going to have -- there's like travel, like consumer retail that have big slowdowns, i think. i don't think it's going to be only internet advertising, i think it's advertising across the board. >> we have apple up on that screen it's taken a beating it's an interesting one. it matters how the consumer will hold up given the price tag of some of the products and of course the services. where do you put that on your list of buys or not? >> apple is not a name that we know, that we focus on really well it's an amazingly well-run company that's very global we're not involved in apple at all.

where we are seeing some interesting value just to segue is in some of the small and midcap software companies like sale point, we were involved in crowd strike for a while especially in the securities space. find companies that are not only -- you can get good value in them but, two, that are like critical infrastructure that companies are going to be forced to buy, they're not discretionary purchases, because the world we are living in today, all companies, i don't care if you're affected or not, are taking a really good look at their cap ex budgets. >> where do you land on uber it's an interesting one. >> we're out of it. >> in the covid world. >> i own a lot of it we own a lot of it in our fund we are slightly down on the position what do i think of uber? if you divide uber's business into two things, uber eats and

then ride sharing, then think about it from a demand/supply perspective, look, demand for uber eats has never been better. you have huge numbers of cons e consumers using it who have never used it before you have tons of new restaurants that are signing up for it that have never used it before. but on the flip side, you don't have rides which are down 80 plus percent in most major markets in the world it's starting to recover in some of the markets in asia of course, the ride sharing has been decimated it will come back when things get better, i think you're going to see less competition. i think you'll see more rational -- you'll see more rational competitors but actually the most important thing for uber is on the supply side of drivers. uber no different than mcdonalds or walmart or wendy's or home depot. any companies that relied on

lower wage 10 to $20 an hour workers. last couple of years the labor markets have been really tight so companies, they couldn't find the workers. unfortunately now for uber, they have 25 million people so they'll spend billions that they were spending on driver incentives, driver recruiting, it will go away. i like it over the next 24 months. >> mitchell, appreciate your perspective. stay healthy >> absolutely. thanks over to you. a key player in restructuring the auto industry. after the financial crisis we'll talk airlines. federal bailout money with harry wilson that's next. we'll check in with former fda commissioner dr. scott gottleib on progress the u.s. is making to flatten the curve and reopen versus the stay guaranteed debate. as we head to break, take a look at the biggest pre-market

decliners. a lot of oil companies in there as crude prices plummet. stayun ted, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc ere. i wish my trading platform worked like that. well have you tried thinkorswim? this is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks you're interested in. now this is what i'm talking about. yeah, it'll free up more time for your... uh, true crime shows? british baking competitions. hm. didn't peg you for a crumpet guy. focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. ♪

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almost as easy as having those guys help you move. we are those guys. that's you? the truck adds 10 pounds. in the arms. -okay... transfer your service online in a few easy steps. now that's simple, easy, awesome. transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. visit xfinity.com/moving today. welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we've been watching the futures pretty closely this morning. they are under quite a bit of pressure right now it looks like the dow is indicated down by 473 points. that's all coming as oil prices for the may delivery, that contract coming under pretty extreme pressure this morning. we are looking at wti for may

delivery down to $12 believe it or not, that's off the worst levels of the morning. joe? >> thanks, becky important day for boeing, which is resuming wide body plane production in the seattle area phil lebeau joins us for more. hey, joe got a couple of headlines that happened this morning with regards to boeing. if you look at shares of boeing, under pressure pre-market. let's see if it ends up being that way today couple of reasons why. you have citi downgrading the stock to a neutral today then there's a chinese leasing firm that has cut its leasing order for the 737 max by 729 they will take a number of maxes but bringing it back by 29 if you take a look at shares of boeing, it had moved back higher in the last week compared to where it was in the middle of last week. commercial production in the seattle area it was shut down essentially for a month when we're talking about the wide body line

when you look at boeing and airbus, both of these companies are in the midst of saying what's our production rate going to be going forward? how many planes do we expect to deliver. whether or not they can increase the production in the second quarter remains to be seen many believe boeing will cut the commercial production by a third. another by boeing, airbus, airlines, this comes from united united is selling 22 planes to an asian leasing firm. this is a sale lease back. what's happening is united is selling its commitment on the future aircraft, then it's going to lease them back from the firm it is scheduled to cut its schedule in may by 90% this is what we're going to see from all the airlines. how can we adjust? how can we bring back our commitments in terms of future aircraft this week we will get some earnings report. we are likely going to hear from delta as well as southwest that's on the docket what everybody is going to be focused on with the airlines

earnings is, how great is the loss what's the outlook that's what we're going to be focused on. >> hey, phil, with all of the additional planes that are going to be out there as airlines don't need as many, what's to stop another competitor from picking up and, you know, once things get a little better, going out there and competing against them with lower costs? >> reporter: i'm a little bit confused by your question, becky. are you saying somebody can say if you are not going to have as many aircraft coming in, if you're not buying any -- >> no, there will be a lot of aircraft out there. >> reporter: yes, there already are. you have about 2/3 of the world's commercial aircraft parked right now around the world. 2/3 of them. so what you have is an industry that realizes this is going to be a slower ramp back to what people would consider a normal flying level could take two or three years and as a result the airlines are all saying, we don't need as many a, do we cut our commitments in terms of what we're buying

do we defer or cancel orders do we go back to the leasing companies and say, look, we need better terms the real area of concern is southeast sharon you have a number of airlines in the last six or seven years that really ramped up the order book for boeing and airbus. look for those orders to be slashed dramatically. >> phil, thank you we'll continue to watch this with you. right now for more on the government's involvement in helping the airlines stay solvent, let's bring in harry wilson he's the founder and ceo and he served on president obama's restructuring task force it's good to see you this morning. >> good to see you, becky. good morning >> what do you think about the situation with the airlines and the help that they're potentially getting from the government obviously some of them a little concerned about whether to take the deal and what it means >> yeah. a couple things to think about the first is obviously there is a private market solution unlike

in 2009 because for now the credit markets are wide open so the airlines could go down that road. there are two big challenges of that the first is the likelihood that will get them through the crisis absent a v-shaped recovery is pretty low having them back this summer in all likelihood the second, the government terms are quite company friendly very little equity dilution. this aid is more a function than the pandemic than mismanagement, i think that's not inappropriate, but it's actually pretty can have friendly >> what happens if, as you suggest, we don't see a v-shaped recovery, if we don't see big numbers of people going back to flying towards the middle or end of summer? >> yeah. i think this is the central issue that not enough people are talking about, that obviously the first and foremost issue is the health crisis. we need to attack that as

vigorously, aggressively as possible but when we get to the other side of this, i think unless people feel confident that their jobs were being attacked and that they can go out of their house without significant health risk, demand will be really subdued. i think it really comes back to how we solve the public health crisis as quickly as possible in a way that people feel comfortable. treatment is first and foremost. the only thing you can do is preserve the safety of the passengers or customers. for example, testing security or at least temperature checks. obviously social distancing on the plane. things like that that need to be done in order to get people comfortable on a plane, restaurant or any other establishment. >> one is, how should we think about the treasury making money or i imagine in this case not

off of this program? >> yeah -- >> unlike the bank loans, for example. >> yeah, it's a hugely different situation, right i think it was appropriate for treasury to be commercially focused in 2008 and nine because the problems we're trying to solve are largely self-inflicted in the banking sector. it was appropriate to have consequences associated with that in this case the vast majority of problems are driven by the pandemic which is obviously not self-inflicted in that world, the question is what's the goal we're trying to solve. i would argue the goal we're trying to solve is preserve the livelihoods of as many americans as possible who are unwhiting victims and do it as cost effectively as possible and quickly as possible but not, per se, to be as commercially minded as we were in '08 and po 09. i think that's a fundamental distinction. >> how do you think about the, quote, unquote, morality of

taking the money especially companies that might be better funded than others we were talking earlier about shake shack actually returning the money given the financial position they're in, but we were also talking about how harvard university with the $41 billion endowment took $9 billion from the government they're going to have losses and they want to keep people employed you look at the endowment and you see there are people who are much more in need than that. >> sure. so a couple things one, obviously ppp is too small. i said it needs to be much larger and move much more quickly. they invest in their entire career that's a fundamental piece of this as a general matter, if you don't need the government money or a private sector alternative, you shouldn't take the money so that's a function of just kind of really kind of

contributing as a citizen to the crisis the last piece of this is there will be, you know, extraordinary losses there already have been, obviously. the question becomes for the government in terms of this question of cost of it, what are we trying to preserve. i go back to the same principle of trying to preserve as many jobs as possible, which is mostly going to be focused on small business because larger businesses have generally more options. >> harry, again, how would the stakes of this change if this goes on for an extended period of time and even after the government lifts all restrictions it turns out the people don't feel comfortable or they're worried about having enough money or job security to be able to start flying like we used to. if we're looking at a new normal earnings picture for these airlines, what will the government do? what's the second stage of this all look like? if this time around it's been

relatively friendly to the companies because they didn't do anything wrong, you question how long does the government continue to try and support all of that or are there new solutions that you would expect to see >> no, it's a hugely important question, becky. it goes to the fundamentally clear question of how do we get through this there are promising treatments out there. remdesivir and others. the challenge with all of them is not just efficacy, which is first and fundamental, but second is is there enough capacity to get them out broadly so people feel safe? that's something that the government can be investing in today. bill gates has been doing this the government has far more resources to increase capacity today for promising treatments so that some of them will ultimately not succeed obviously, but those that do succeed can be rolled out much more quickly it comes back to your question to the extent we have treatments that can be done in capacity

that will be successful, that will be the single most important thing to getting people confident and get them back in the air to restaurants, et cetera. that's why i think so much of the focus has to be on what we look like on the other side to how can we move as quickly there as possible given the public health constraints first and foremost >> harry, very quickly before we let you go, you know the auto industry so well how do those companies look to you this time around to weather the storm? >> sure. the good news is that a lot of this work that's been done over the decade has really paid off you've seen a tremendous amount of liquidity at the oems, a lot less leverage. capital markets are open for them i think you'll see one or more oems to pad their cash values in the coming weeks barring a demand structure, they should be fine the question becomes how long does it go on but they're

already seeing -- i think you will see most of the oems restart in a safe way with people on the assembly line, the ppp across the workers in early may. if you do that, the question becomes are they actually selling to -- are there enough customers buying cars to justify that production. sales were down between 55 to 60% in april, which was extraordinary. as long as people feel comfortable they won't lose their jobs, i think it will rebound and should keep the companies more than solvent. >> harry, thanks so much really good to see you we hope to have you back again soon >> thanks, becky >> thanks. andrew coming up when we return, florida senator marco rubio will join us to talk about getting more cash to america's small businesses now that the paycheck protection program's been fully

tapped next, a real estate report you need to hear why home prices may fall only in some areas in the united states, not all of them. as we head to a break, take a look at crude oil right now. it is remarkable $11.78 right now stay tedun, you're watching "squawk" on cnbc ever since we've gone mobile on the now platform, something's gotten into the office. i hear you. feels like there's no barriers between departments now.

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning the futures right now looking like they would open down about 2% across the board. the dow off about 457 points s&p 500 -- now we've put them fully in percentage terms for you here dow and s&p off close to 2%.

nasdaq off 1%. i want to take a check on shares of united airlines reporting preliminary first quarter numbers with a 17% drop in revenues. this is to be expected an overall first quarter loss. it expects to get $5 billion it says from treasury from the payroll support program. it has $6.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents united will report full quarter numbers on april 28th. joe? the housing market now where home prices could be starting to suffer, but only in certain spots. diana olick joins us from washington with more diana, you're outside. >> reporter: yeah, joe home sales have obviously slowed dramatically in the past month prices were very hot at the beginning of the year going into this the expectation is they will not fall as sharply. unlike the subprime mortgage crisis when there was a glut of homes, there is an increasing shortage in the first two weeks of march

new listings were up 5%. by the second week in april they were down 47%, that according to realtor.com. april is usually the strongest new month for listings there's also a slowdown in asking prices. in early march median list prices were up 4.5%. in the first half of april they were up just under 1%. that's the slowest growth in seven years. all real estate is local prices will be under the most pressure in areas where the economies depend on leisure and hospitality. it points to las vegas, miami, orlando. in addition it lists houston as high risk. markets where affordability where it was already stretched like the top three in california and seattle, they're at higher risk of price declines there will be pent-up demand but consumer confidence will play a much bigger role than usual in housing.

back to you guys >> i guess it was the end of february i saw in my neighborhood some open houses. there was not a single -- maybe it was march i can't imagine there's any activity of any kind >> reporter: no. they've all gone online. they're verdict actual the national association of realtors launched a whole platform for touring it and most sites have virtual they are doing this now, they're asking people if they're going to put an offer down, you get the offer, you get the ask price, you make the deal but it doesn't close until they allow the person to go to the house by themselves most of it is virtual and sales will be low for quite some time. >> another industry that -- there's nothing that -- just netflix. that's the only thing that -- i don't know, amazon, i guess. there are some winners, but they're so far and few between thank you, diana becky? >> joe, thanks. when we come back, former fda commissioner dr. scott

gottleib will join us to talk about the critical coronavirus testing. how much more do states need before they can safely re-open he has an op ed out in the wall street journal well' talk to him about that. disney is suspending pay for more than 100,000 employees as parks reinma shuttered stay tuned, "squawk box" will be right back

welcome back, everybody. if you are just waking up, you need to check this out crude oil prices are collapsing. we may say terms like that frequently, but not for the things like this wti down 35% not for week to date, not for month to date, not for year to date, this is this morning down 36% to $11.67 let's bring in an analyst this morning. doug terreson. what's happening here? >> good morning, becky our report was called a dog's breakfast. that's extremely messy as we reach 20-year lows.

expectations for oil demand are falling and by 10 times what we normally see in a recession. while the equity market is suggesting that we're going to have a coronavirus solution in coming quarters and that demand will recover, and we all hope that is the case, the problem is that in the near term, meaning the second quarter of 2020, supply is going to be over demand by around 15 million barrels per day or so combined with the 7 million barrels in the first quarter puts us in a scenario whereby we're not going to have enough storage to accommodate the supply in this scenario prices are going to remain very weak. they'll be around variable production costs which supports our call for brent 25 in the second quarter wti as you referred to a minute ago will be 70 to 80% of that amount if global economic recovers, opec and other supply cuts hold, we'll see inventories decline.

record levels to the middle of this year to maybe 60 days at the end of this year and 50 into 2021 this is high in relation to 40 years historically recover the brent 40 by the end of this year, but we have to have some help from the demand side. >> we should just point out, doug, that this decline that is so sharp today for may wti is because the may contract expires tomorrow so people have to take delivery of this they have to find someplace to store it the ships that store this are virtually full storage tanks in the united states are virtually full. that's why you see the may contract so low. june is trading around $22 what do you think a fair price is for june and july delivery? >> you're right. i think your point is this looks really bad on the screen, but it's worst in the technical market you're absolutely right that crude oil today in the stock market in alaska, canada,

balkin, permean, 10, $15 a barrel we think that until we see additional supply cuts materialize, we're probably going to be around 25 brent. like we said, maybe 70, 80% of that number for wti during the next couple of months. >> okay. doug, thank you for your time today. >> you're welcome. joe. coming up, former fda commissioner dr. scott gottleib on a potential new way to use big data in the fight against coronavirus. check out the futures. just down 500 but crude is down a little, down 470 now on the dow. reminder, you can watch or listen to us live on the cnbc app. stay tuned, we'll be right back. don't forget to subscribe to our podcast. you'll get interviews, original content, and behind-the-scenes access look for us on apple podcasts or on your favorite podcast app and

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning take a look at futures market looks like it's down close to 2% across the board maybe a little less than that. dow off about 270 points at one point it was closer to being off closer to 500 points s&p 500 off 50 points and nasdaq off about 100 points becky? andrew, thanks u.s. coronavirus cases now number more than 3/4 of a million people with more than 40,000 deaths reported this morning we are getting a message from tech titan about a big data ability to fight the spread of that virus writing in the washington post facebook ceo mark zuckerberg says researchers at carnegie mellon university are publishing a survey asking facebook users about covid symptoms the idea is to use the 1 million

u.s. responses a week to get an early read on where the disease is spreading and where that curve is flattening. joining us to talk about all the latest on the virus developments is dr. scott gottleib. he is the former fda commissioner he's a cnbc commissioner and he serves on the boards of pfizer and i willumina. i want to ask you about your own op ed, how to keep workers healthy on the job you lay out how to do this in the new world. what's step number one >> the idea here is for businesses to start thinking about what their back to work plans are and what they can do to create a safe workplace looking at ways to provide alternative forms of transportation to mass transit shared surfaces have been a source of the spread in boston, new york trying to create a safe

environment, access to testing for people who have very mild symptoms who might not present to doctors liberal cleaning of shared surfaces one of the things we recommend, if you have a cafeteria, continue to operate it but operate it under safe circumstances. you're better off offering food than going out to a corner deli. so we lay out a number of measures that businesses should be thinking about in how to create a safe work environment i think businesses need to do this they need to think about what they are going to do when there are positive cases in the workplace, because there will be positive cases you need to deal with that and how you do contact tracing and get people access to testing >> you know, a lot of workplaces are dealing with that question right now if they're operating, emergency services, no common places, trying to limit the number of employees there. it makes sense to try to maybe circulate some different employees so people don't get

too burned out or too stressed out on issues. you raise the issue by doing that, making sure you are bringing more people into the work space what's the right plan for that should there be go teams different locations for the teams? how should it work >> businesses need to think about that some are easier for people who are office workers than people who work on a shop floor in the office you can split your employees, half can work from home, half can come into the office you should continue to telework. you can use zoom calls inside the office rather than convening large meetings have people have meetings virtually. on the shop floor, things are different. it's harder to social distance you want to think about ppe. let people wear masks. people need break rooms. they need to come off a shop floor and go into a break room you may want breaks more to stagger them more. smaller rooms to take breaks and

don't congregate you want to keep shifts apart. if you have an illness in one group of employees, it doesn't take down an entire work force you want to doing this and operating with smaller teams all of these things businesses should be talking about. i've spoken to a number of folks where they're starting to get the plans in place may is coming up, and i think a lot of the ability to protect consumers and workers is going to be on the part of what businesses do to try to protect their work forces. >> scott, "the journal," just reading an article about if you need to go to a grocery store, here's the things that you need to do. that piece makes the point that most likely it's aerosolized virus from other people that you inhale that you need to worry about the most you were talking about leave the cafeteria open, people don't have to go out and contact

someone else if you ingest something that has some of the virus on it, if it goes to your stomach, is that less of a problem than if you inhale aerosolized, something in the air that goes into your lungs? >> yeah, probably. i mean, this isn't an interic virus. it's not through an oral route it's from inhailing respiratory dropless or conjunctiva or getting respiratory droplets in your eye this is how it's spread. it's not the balance between respiratory dropless and contaminated surfaces. i think when the analysis is done, it will be through contaminated surfaces here. >> it is you think -- you should wipe down anything. if you go to the supermarket and buy a bunch of stuff off the shelves where people have been, you know, doing whatever, sneezing, coughing, whatever, then you need to wipe anything you get at the supermarket, you

need to wipe that down really well because you would touch it and then -- >> yeah. >> go ahead. >> i think the bigger risk here is things like subways, tables in restaurants that were not adequately cleaned buying things is a risk, but it's very low risk i'm wiping things down where i can, but i think you can only do so much. i think the bigger risk is shared surfaces in where people frequent, doorways, subway handles. wash your hands. be very conscious of not touching your face when you go out. >> scott, let me ask you how realistic is it logistically to talk about doing tests at the workplace? i mean, are you going to have shifts where everybody shows up and get the tests back and that happens every day?

>> your larger employer working with a local facility. the testing. they might just have signs of a mild cold. presenting to a doctor it's not sick. as many people tested. there are not a lot of cases at least initially as we come through here >> i don't know. come do half your shift and then

go get a test and find out if you have it. >> that's right. but, remember, there's back to work we're not going to test everyone to go back to work that's not going to happen then there's just life with coronavirus. what does life with coronavirus look like? life with coronavirus over the next 12 months looks like there's an environment where we have to be very careful with people who have mild symptoms. we should be over testing with this if people show up to a doctor's office, they should get swabbed. we might want to routinely present to everyone. that's 3.8 million visits a week we might have the capacity to do that a doctor puts a stethoscope on your chest and swab you for coronavirus. that's how we'll start to catch the people with very mild symptoms or asymptomatic spread. remember, 30% of people are asymptomatic we want something in place, some kind of sentinel surveillance that lets us catch a few folks as well. that's how we'll prevent small outbreaks from becoming large. >> real quick if you can help us

with this. right now we're told that these tests are only 70% accurate. do you see that changing over the next month, two, three at scale? then those are the tests just to find out whether you have it then there's lots of reports about -- we talked about it in the 7:00 hour with the ceo of roche. the antibody tests coming from china, many of which are not working at all >> yeah. we have to be very careful with antibody test. they don't have a high specificity. they can say you have high antibodies when you don't. it has a very higher rohr rate a lot of people who say you will get back tests and have antibodies don't the one out of santa clara last week, you have to look at it cautiously in terms of the pcr tests that look for active infection, the accuracy is highly variable. it's high for a lot of machines. some of the point of care diagnostics might have low

sensitivity. it might be on the order of 75%. the gene expert, some of the more accurate machines can be close to 100% precise with a decent sample. a loft of the variability isn't in the machine itself but the sample prep. how good of a sample are you getting and how effective are you in extracting the viral rna in that sample. >> dr. scott gottleib. always good to see you thank you for seeing us. i know we will see you tomorrow. >> thanks a lot. jim cramer joins us from cnbc headquarters. jim, there's only one word to talk about this morning i think and it's oil i imagine the rest of the world is going to key off of that. what do you think is going on here >> i think becky got it completely right this is the rollover of the futures. this is where you actually have to put the oil somewhere, otherwise it's just a big paper contract my friend rusty brazil has been so good with me at rbn energy. he's saying perhaps the next

month it might go to zero because there really is no place to put the oil and no one's stopping to produce. it's funny, there's no up side no one's talking about the good news of it i think that's because no one's going anywhere to take advantage of it, so to speak you watch the airline stocks go down that used to move up so almost everything that happens is viewed as negative in the physical commodity world >> but are you of the view that this then ripples across the economy insofar as the oil patch and the energy space gets decimated by this? are you of the view that because the federal reserve is coming in and helping on the high yield side it's not a problem? >> i think this industry gets hurt you have companies like ocasio-cortez with a occidental with a $33 price.

are you going to produce a barrel for $33 and lose a fortune on every barrel? companies will have to reorganize there's kind of a dream world where it was sensational when oil was at 60 and it was okay at 50, 40 was getting tough 30 was a loss. at these prices it pays not to produce anything you want the oil in the ground for better time. the oil people just know how to produce. they don't know to shut in the slumbchlumberger call on fry very bearish what you're seeing on your screen is a lot of jobs being lost >> right jim, we'll see you in a couple minutes and hear more of your perspective on what will happen today. we have florida senator mark yo rubio standing by on the race to get more money to suffering american small businesses. we'll talk to him in a minute and don't miss our interview

tomorrow as well with howard schultz on getting the u.s. economy reopened stay tuned, you're watching squawk on cnbc

president trump says democrats and republicans could reach a deal today on funneling more money into the government's paycheck protection program for small businesses senator marco rubio joins us now. he's chairman of the senate small business committee thought maybe it would happen yesterday. what's happening where are we at this point in time >> i want to confirm you can hear me. i lost you for a second. >> i'm hearing myself like six times. >> yeah, so we're -- i think we have the outlines of a pretty good deal here it's a deal we could have had a week ago i want to caution everybody, even if that money is approved on wednesday, it will take some

time now they have to redo the sba website with the new parameters for the money set aside for banks. what i'm asking them do is start doing it now not to wait until thursday or wednesday when this passes we'll have on thursday when this opens up, you'll have 800,000, 900,000 applications hit the system at once we'll go back to the same problems we were having in the early bdays of the launch this is the price for what's happened here, this delay in fundin funding. >> it's going to happen today, in your view >> well, the senate i hope will vote it out today unanimously unless somebody flies to d.c. and blocks it. we'll see. the house has different procedures then you have to relaunch this they have to redo the website, the e-tran system, the online

portal i'm asking them to work on that now. just assume it's going to pass and get ready for it don't wait until it's signed to do that. we can't afford to waste all these days >> what is most important, to make sure people who get it get it, or entities who don't get it don't get it or how do you do that there's criticism on who is getting it, who doesn't, who deserves to get it >> here's what happened. we were asked to draft this to cover as many people as possible not just small business for not for profits, 1099s, independent contractors. then we were asked specifically to include restaurants and the hospitality industry, hotels, because they were the first ones hit. a month ago, they were hit with closures then we had to write affiliation rules. these hotels, it may say marriott, hyatt or hilton but

it's actually owned by an individual the same can happen with restaurants and franchises there have been some people approved some companies i believe should not have been. even under the intent of the law. that comes down to the certification process, how they were certified into the system there were glitches made, no doubt about it in the end, take comfort in the fact that the money has to go to the workers. we want to keep them employed this is not a bailout of a company. certainly the goal here is to get the money into the hands of businesses who don't have anywhere else to go for money including the stock market, shareholders, other sort of credit lines >> we want to talk about harvard university, a $41 billion endo endowment taking the money, and whether you think they should give that money back >> yeah. i don't know the details of how they qualified for it, how they

got it we thought about putting a need test on the front end. the more requirements we came up with, the harder it was going to be to get the money out the door the goal is to get money out quickly. we erred on the side of expediency the biggest mistake we can make is to move too slowly. >> what about the transparency piece? the transparency piece and having an inspector general on top of this given the fact we don't have transparency and the president is now planning to remove -- >> yeah. there is an inspector general. the sba has an inspector general, a very good one they'll look at this program as they do every program that's done in addition to whatever c.a.r.e.s. act does and in addition to congressional oversight. let there be no doubt. they made 14 years worth of loans in 12 days when you do something like that

so rapidly there will be unintended consequences, issues you didn't see and probably things would have done differently. so we're dealing with an emergency here and trying to push money out as quickly as possible into the hands of workers. in becomes a loan that you have to pay back if you don't get it into the hands of workers. >> senator, what do you think of some of the protests that we're seeing we had someone refer to those protesters as -- i don't know, far right-wingers or something do you think you have to be a far right-winger to get back to work >> no, i don't think it's ideological. i will say this, here's the thing, if you hear people out there talking about we should keep things the way they are now until the virus goes away or until it's at a certain level, i agree theoretically that's the right approach it's also not realistic. it's important for leaders to recognize there will come a point where no matter what rules we come up with, people will stop following them.

so it's a balancing act here it should put pressure on leaders to expedite the things we'll need to make reopening safer. the rapid testing is important >> thank you very much >> thank you >> thank you for bringing us up to date that will do it for us make sure you join us tomorrow becky and andrew will be here. right now. >> thank you >> time for "squawk on the street." good monday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber coming to you live from separate locations. breath taking numbers to start the week futures are weak on what is shaping up to be the worst day for wti since the contract was created back in 1983 ahead of expiration ibm, netflix and coke coming at us this week we'll look for a deal to extend the small business loans, but crude will get the attention at the outset and you did say on twitter on friday that investors still had time to sell crude before this