ur degree at snhu.edu. welcome back i'm eric chem my stocks trading lower with nearly every s&p 500 sector down so far today. consumer discretionary up fractionally ooultss and real estate are the worst sectors today. among the stocks dragging real estate lower are shopping center and mall operators including

vornado, regency centers and kimco down 40% this year on growing concerns about their tenants' ability to pay rent as most nonessential retail remains shuttered across the united states back to carl >> eric, thank you very much good morning welcome to "squawk alley." i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and jon fortt is back after a week off coming to you live from separate location. major averages off of the morning lows dow was down 500, now down half of that. a big week of earnings, ibm tonight, netflix and others in the days to come and then, jon, oil is a major story as the front month contract does expire tomorrow. >> it is that's had a big impact on the markets overall. i'm looking at all kinds of retail and e-commerce as well, making some strong moves in the past when i was off and over the past month as well, guys

that is where we'll start this morning. let's bring in heath terry, goldman sachs internet analyst good to see you. >> yeah, good to see you too, thanks, jon. >> so as i was just saying i've been watching a number of stocks, some of which are on your coverage list, looking at etsy doubled in the last month, wayfair has been better than that, amazon and walmart right around all-time highs, but not every stock is fairing that well what do you see happening, particularly when it comes to e-commerce >> yeah. look, there are clearly companies in this space that are on, you know, the right side of this moment. you look at the role that amazon is playing in our daily lives now, you look at the ability that companies like setsy that had to pivot, when you take a marketplace full of dynamic, creative people, you know, within days of us coming into

this, this environment, that people on that site were selling handmade masks, hand sanitizers, games and puzzles for people who needed to entertain their kids and families at home and, of course, wayfair obviously benefiting from the need to shelter in place, the need to make sure that your home is as comfortable as it possibly can be in this kind of environment you can contrast that with the apparel companies within e-commerce and, you know, those aren't as much of a priority right now and those stocks haven't worked nearly as well. as long as we're going to be in this kind of environment, particularly with the companies that you're -- when talking about competition precommerce, all of your off-line competition is largely shut down right now, it moves that much more market share in their favor. >> you talked about e-commerce talk to us now about media as

well netflix has been a stock that people have been talking about since the beginning of this. there are others that operate in that cohort, roku being another one of them. despites the fact that netflix has held up pretty well, you think that stock still has some room to go higher? >> yeah. look, i don't think you can overstate the impact that this is having on companies like netflix, like peloton, even to a lesser degree somebody like a spotify, not just in this moment that we're in right now, but when you look at the longer term impact that these network effect kind of businesses are having. you look at like a peloton or netflix where you get -- where they see such a large increase in their subscriber editions during the fourth quarter, particularly during the holiday season, this is effectively stacking three holiday seasons on top of each other in what

we're seeing in the march quarter and likely to see in the june quarter when you do that to a network effect type business, you do that through a word of mouth type business the way these are, all you're doing is effectively steepening the growth curve for these subscription businesses. not only are we going to get a couple really, really good quarters out of these businesses, you're going to get really good quarters for the next several years out of these businesses relative to the current expectations because of the knock on impact of having so pane more customers added at a time like this up front. >> interesting to hear you talk about that especially after getting the netflix earnings after the bell as well given the fact that we are now into earnings season and have something like six dozen companies reporting this week and it will continue in the weeks to come, looking at balance sheets for the different companies that you do cover, what is looking healthy?

i guess you touched on that with netflix and peloton. what is not necessarily looking so healthy right now and what would you steer clear of >> look, i think you look at the online travel space, you look at the mobility space, you look at the online real estate space, those are the companies that are being most impacted by this. expedia, trip adviser. expedia is dealing with a high level of cancellations and booking.com has talked about 85% declines in their booking rates during an effort to raise money, put more money on their balance sheet. we think as lot of companies will have to do that redfin in the online real estate space try to use the moment we have in the markets to put more money on their balance sheets. more of those companies that

have to raise money will need to raise money to shore up their balance sheets because how long we're going to be in this period of occupancy rates and leisure travel bookings being as low as they are right now, most management teams can't count on a quick recovery when talking about something like travel where even as other parts of the economy come out of this, it's likely that they're going to be in it a much longer period of time and have to prepared for burn rates and lower levels of bookings their balance sheets just weren't prepared for something like this. >> yeah. you brought up red fin and i would aid zillow to the list, companies real estate focused but asset light and tech platforms and in recent years they've become asset heavy, with direct home buying, other initiatives, we see what's

happening in real estate and housing cratering in certain aspects right now. how worrisome is that and would you expect them to start to exit some of these businesses >> well, i mean if they effectively, you know, have or put them on hold for the moment. zillow shut down its homes business, redfin shut down theirs private buyers like open door shut down their buying initiatives or put them on hold for the time being yeah, effectively reverting back to the more capital light models that investors always favored or preferred about those businesses i think one, it's important because it shows the management teams can be nimble in a time like this and, you know, these companies were also really fortunate that to the extent something like this had to happen, it happened while the businesses were relatively small for them and their exposure on their balance sheets were small.

they were able to shut them down without -- at a time where they didn't have a lot of risks on their balance sheet as opposed to something like this happening two or three or four years from now when those businesses would have been much bigger. >> it's carl when talking about streaming budgets and netflix and people buying bikes from peloton, the shift makes sense now, but given share outperformance and then eventually the second order effects on purchasing habit, when does that thesis get fully formed >> yeah. you know, i think that's where you have to look at sort of the value people are getting out of these things so, you know, whether it's netflix where the average consumer is paying 17 cents an hour for the content that they're consuming and by the way that was during normal times, much less the levels of consumption we're seeing now that have probably, you know, cut that number by a third, a half of what it was prior or

something like peloton where you're talking about roughly $50 a month cost for a household of two people relative to, you know, the average american that spends about $50 a month on a gym membership or$40 a month o a boutique fitness class, the value that you're getting ought of those, particularly as we go into a recession and people have to be more careful about what they're spending is where i think that focus comes in. particularly for something like peloton talking about 63 million people in the u.s. that have gym memberships spending on average $50 a month, for peloton with just over 700,000 subscribers, 2 million members, they're still so early stage in tapping into the 63 million that there's a lot of growth there before they really start hitting those kind of limits where you have to worry about the recessionary

impact you see on the larger wellness market. >> interesting and then i went back and looked and i saw your twitter upgrade on the 3rd where you try to explain how a company can do well when overall advertising might be at risk and even some companies are worrying about placing an ad next to virus related content. why does that make sense >> yeah. that for us, really across all of our space, we're kind of focused on two kinds of companies. one, the companies that are seeing increased demand in this kind of environment and that's amazon, netflix, peloton, wayfair and then the companies that are going to emerge from this stronger and that's where twitter falls for us so twitter certainly seeing the negative impact to their advertising volumes, but twitter is seeing this huge increase in usage.

40% increase in app downloads for twitter, 3 x increase in countries like india where twitter has never been able to penetrate that market in a meaningful way before. and what we've seen with these kind of events in the past with twitter is that they tend to hold on to these users on the other side of it once people have found the value of the platform so it's less about, you know, the idea that twitter is not going to be impacted by this as much as some of the other platforms. they are it's really more about at that part the end of march twitter being at a price where we felt coming out of this there would be more value to the twitter platform and any ad inventory they would have in a recovery than the stock was implying at those levels >> finally, heath, i was looking at a chart of the dow from 1929 when i was on vacation, as you

do, and -- >> of course what else do you do on vacation? >> a nice rally for about six months after that october crash so i wonder how much should investors trust the rebound that we've seen thus far in stocks like amazon, netflix, which are near all-time highs, spotify within 10% of the 52-week high are they likely to hold here or should we be bracing for more turbulence >> so, completely agree with the question and i think it is the right one, especially as we go into earnings season where a lot of companies are going to have really difficult numbers to have to talk about and really difficult guidance to have to talk about i would exclude those three companies, mainly because their fundamentals are going to be actually pretty positive, especially in the case of amazon, you look at what this is doing for their retail business, their aws business, even their advertising business, they're going to have a lot of positive things to say obviously within

the context of a very, very difficult operating environment for them, but financially, what that stock is doing makes a lot of sense same thing for netflix, but i think where you're absolutely right is we've seen big rebounds in a lot of stocks within the internet space where the fundamentals and the financials are going to be a lot more difficult and you've seen stocks that -- i mentioned the online travel stocks before, where the rebound in the stocks have been, you know, up 40, up 50% from their lows, where we haven't seen anything in the fundamentals yet to suggest that that's probably the right thing for those stocks to have done. i think there's a lot of those examples within the internet surface that you c space that you can point to. >> still a slog here from so many areas thanks for being with us >> any time.

>> well, oil plunging this morning with that expiring may contract for wti below $11 a barrel right now brian sullivan has more. brian? >> morgan brennan, thank you very much. good to see you. i'm not going to say don't pay attention to the may contract but don't pay attention to the may contract entirely. i know the headline number is brutal going back to 1998 levels extrapolate that up, 1998 at $10 is probably $16 adjusted for inflation, we're at 30-year lows but you want to look at june and july and they're a slightly less grim number. why are we showing you the tanker stocks right now? because if you're looking for a potential winner in all of this, these are names that we've talked about going back to early january and late december. some of these tanker names we brought to you tk, nordic american tankers,

scorpio tankers, diamond s shipping and others, why are they rising, guys? they're rising because if you have a bunch of oil and need a place to put it one good place might be on a ship anchored at sea. you're going to pay increasingly rising freight rates to that ship owner, the ship owner and those companies, guys will be very happy to have that, they're going to sit there, the crew will just be at anchor for a week, a month or longer, wait for this contango to sort of come to fruition, higher prices in the future, so you're sitting on stuff because you're going to sell it for more prices later, if you're looking for a winner it is perhaps the tanker stocks. look at those numbers. even going out to june and july, 22.68 and the $10 number which expires tomorrow, i mean just brutal by the way, there was briefly earlier today negative prices. western canadian select, talk

about it being $3 a barrel two weeks ago, there was negative pricing, in other words jon and morgan, please take my oil and i will pay you to get rid of it and do anything you want with it >> yeah. our res sent oil major i will call you let's get a check on where we stand across the major averages right now, startings the week off in the red at least for the dow and the s&p, though the dow has cut earlier losses in half down about 252 points, nasdaq hovering near the flat line down two points and the s&pt 54 a28 we're back in a moment (soft music)

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our next guest took the antibody test for covid-19 but was left with more questions than answers it was the subject of her latest column for the "new york times," cara swisher, co-founder of recode and cnbc contributor joins us this morning. how are you doing. >> how are you doing >> i'm good. i loved your column. >> thank you. >> not to giveaway the ending, but your point is you got the test and even you, plugged in as you are, you had to know someone? >> yes exactly. i think what i was trying to bring into sharp relief is the fact that testing testing testing is critically important and one of the things is how hard it is to do this. scott galloway and i talked about this on pivot, how to get

the test, both tests, the coronavirus test and antibody test, is a confusing mess and when you see pictures from korea or germany this week of people opening up, you wish we would get this in place so we could know with more certainty, not perfect certainty, what's wrong with us or if we have the antibody tests or if we're safer or what we should be careful of. i was trying to bring that idea in i had to go to like one of those ones that are not certain. 90 the fda has beenallowed to sell without approval. there's crappy tests out there pretty much. >> and so did wright the piece leave you with any sense of how this gets resolved i mean even if it's a less ideal outcome than we think right now? >> competent management of the federal system i don't know what to say i think this testing issue is really critical and from the top

we have to get all citizens -- there's all kinds of innovative ideas. i talked to movie people this week who are going to buy a lot of tests and everyone gets tested for covid-19 every day until we have a vaccine every day which is going to be a long time coming. they get tested and do temperature taking and every -- businesses will have to start to do this themselves because we're not going to get anything from the federal level and it's hard for the states to figure it out together because there's so much movement between states. the idea that if you want to open this country and i think everybody does, no matter what side of the political spectrum you are, you don't have to honk a car and maintain unsafe distances to do it, but the fact of the matter is you have to be tested so we know and we keep as safe as possible and mitigate it everyone doesn't have to be inside, if we do proper tests or proper social distancing as long as we have some idea that's what i was trying to get through with this idea, how hard it is to get this test and how important it is to have it

one of the many tests. there's two or three. >> yeah. your point, cara, this is john forth, about people in hollywood raises the specter that everybody will have to know somebody to be in the best position to be tested. i want to talk to you about this mark andresen column you could call it he put out a couple days ago, it's time to build sort of laying some of the blame for our flatfootedness in response to a lack of manufacturing capacity, lack of infrastructure, a lot of things that could have been built, and talking about a way forward. i wonder does this ring to you, is it strange? it doesn't seem like silicon valley has been an advocate for government spending on things that market isn't demanding and that in a way seems to be what mark is pushing for here. >> yeah.

they're all capitalists on the way and socialists on the way down i don't know what to say interesting coming from the man that software is eating the world and advocating that and it's a good thing, who cares about manufacturing, we can offload that to other countries. the analog world has hit back pretty hard in the idea we need vaccine capabilities or manufacturing of housing or doing other things it was an interesting take i think the idea he was saying is we have to have that can-do spirit, i think that's what was going on there, we have to build. i can't imagine he wouldn't be a critic if we had an excess capacity of things, if they were just sitting there waiting for a disaster, that's not a mentality in silicon valley. i think it's a little bit more -- i'm not sure what was going on in that essay but it was an interesting take. i think a lot of people in silicon valley are sort of not knowing what to do -- some people are doing amazing things like marc benioff trying to

mitty gait the situation, but how do you deal with the interconnective world when something like this happens and it's hard with a group of people pushing the idea that software is really the one that dominates, which is not untrue still, but the fact of the matter is you also have to have manufacturing capabilities on some level it was an interesting essay. i have to really think harder about what he's trying to say, but i think a lot of people in silicon valley don't quite know what the next step is and how we move forward from an innovation point of view and american 2.0 i interviewed mark cuban today, that's a really interesting interview about this idea of what is america 2.0. >> yeah. i guess along those lines, kara, in the essay it's education, manufacturing, education, physical footprint in the cities, outlined some different areas. i just wonder what you think silicon valley and i guesses the innovation machine in general will think about the

possibilities, the opportunities to start to work on some of these. i realize some of it has happened with some of the startups and some of the companies we've seen, but whether this essentially becomes a call to see more investment, more innovation in these specific areas. >> you know, something i've been talking about is climate change. i did a year at the beginning of the year this is what we have to move into, manufacturing, health, the idea of what a city is, cars i mean everyone laughed at my car thing but we have to think about cities without cars and what a city looks like and also the downside of the city is a lot of the hot spots have been in cities where lots of people are in this pandemic it's a bigger idea of think about what innovation really is and what innovation needs to be applied to i think marc was talking about where are supersonic jets and our big ideas. that's always something that's captured silicon valley's attention. where is the big idea that's next it may have been sort of dawdling and perhaps smaller ideas. there's a well-known quote, i can't remember who said it in

silicon valley, silicon valley is a lot of smart brilliant people thinking about little ideas. the question is what are the big ideas. >> that's interesting. and how those ideas get placed into policy. i would love to get a tease about what cuban told you, but i know you talked to london breed in san francisco. >> yes go ahead. >> these people are being thrust into the policy debate they might be politicians or maybe they're local politicians, but what's the path to making those ideas accessible to a larger office? >> it's a question of what the public/private link is now it's very clear there has to be a much more public/private link for sure everyone is in this grow, grow, grow idea. there's a larger duty for society. [ inaudible ] on a policy level and so one of the discussions i had with mayor breed the pressure of opening up versus

closing. she wants to open up but they were quick not to close things down to have a flatter curve and thinking of creative ways to distance and open things up slowly to protect as many people as possible. there has to be sort of a discussion happening between and among politicians and the private sector more useful way than it has been in the past not this circus way like at the white house, but substantive relationships. that's something mark cuban talked about because he was talking about the need to get america 2.0 has focus on ai, robotics, manufacturing. think about robotics in terms of doing a lot of this manufacturing we don't have right now, you have to be thinking about making investments in that area going forward when you have a pandemic situation. there's a lot of big ideas being bandied about whether mark andresen or mark cuban or london

breed or mark dewine, after all this twitchiness that's been going on for the last couple years. >> yeah. well at least judging from my twitter feed, care ra, viewers love the glasses. >> yes. >> i'm sorry you know what, i'm working from home and wearing my orange theory shirt this is what you will get. maybe i will wear a suit if you would like i would be happy to. >> okay. >> i can hardly get out of bed, my friends >> we'll see you soon. >> thank you all right. thanks >> cara swisher. morgan >> carl, thanks. european markets are set to close in just a moment seema moody has the breakdown from overseas. >> morgan, european markets with the exception of italy and spain turning higher on date oil producers in europe, though, one of the worst performing sectors, bp and total down more than 1% as several countries move ahead with reopening their

economies this week. germany revising some of its quarantine restrictions allowing a number of businesses from car dealers to electronic retailers to turn the lights on as long as they exercise social distancing measures some will remain closed for another week and making face masks mandatory. chancellor merkel saying that country cannot loosen the lockdown too fast and risk a spike in cases and germany is looking into further steps to help the economy including measures to help restaurants and potentially extending the short time work scheme it comes as a report from consulting firm mckenzie estimates roughly 59 million jobs could be impacted bythe economic fallout of the pandemic they see unemployment could almost double in the coming months unemployment stands around 6% in europe during the financial crisis it's worth noting we saw unemployment spike to 27%. morgan, sending it back to you >> thank you let's get the latest on the coronavirus outbreak sue herera has that at hq as

well. >> thank you, morgan good morning, everyone new york city's mayor bill de blasio says the city does not have enough surgical gowns to get through this week. he is pleading with the federal government to supply more. the city has also canceled all large-scale events through june including pride weekend and the puerto rican day parade. the federal agency overseeing nursing homes is i me meanting new transparency measures after thousands of covid-19 deaths at long-term facilities the guidance report that deaths be reported to the cdc and mandates all patients and families be notified of outbreaks. >> novartis has gained approval to conduct u.s. trials to determine if its drug hydroxychloroquine is an effective treatment for covid-19 and the u.s./mexico and canada are extending cross-border travel restrictions another 30 days. nonessential travel restrictions

will continue through at least may 16th as always, head to cnbc.com for more coronavirus coverage. jon, i'll send it back to you. >> thank you oil has been influencing the markets quite a bit these days you can see there rough day, wti data just above 10 bucks a barrel crude also lower 'rba itwwee ckn o. crisis, you've served our country. if you're a vet and you're experiencing any symptoms of the coronavirus, please contact your local va hospital. protecting your health is our greatest duty. we're committed to making college more affordable., that's why we're keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. - [student] i knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. - [narrator] find your degree at snhu.edu.

welcome back shares of planet fitness getting a boost on friday, although lower today. down about 1% with the broader market as some gyms and fitness centers get set to reopen. joining us is the ceo. thanks for being with us today. >> thank you for having me >> so looking at this phase one guidelines from the federal government, it includes opening gyms if they adhere to a strict social distancing and sanitation

protocols. what does that mean for planet fitness and what does it mean in terms of your potential timeline in different states to start to bring those operations back online >> yeah, sure. government mandated closure last march, pretty much nationwide, and the president released three phases and we're phase one we're waiting for the green light state by state to figure out when we can reopen and we're taking this time to work with our franchisees on the protocols for sanitizing and etiquette with the use of the equipment. >> over the weekend cnbc reporting another gym chain 24 hour fitness is weighing bankruptcy i realize there's specifics about that company and its debt load but it highlights some of the challenges that i think are phasing the broader fitness industry right now what a spike in unemployment does to discretionary spending for potential customers and spending on things like gym memberships and how long it's going to take for people to feel

comfortable to go back into some of these more socially crowded environments like, for example, gyms how are you thinking about that? shoe sure. so, you know, i really feel that situations like this, people really realize how important fitness is and health and wellness studies that show up working out does build up your immune system because of strong franchise system we're positioned to weather the storm. with memberships $10 a month we're a great option when people are looking to pinch their budget some and we saw this in '09 when that happened, we saw people trading down from the higher priced memberships to planet fitness because we're $10 per month. >> what do you have to do for people to feel safe going back into a facility like a planet fitness where i mean if people are on bikes or on stair climbers, they're breathing hard so you wonder about the impact of potential particles in the air, that they're touching free

weights, do they have to be wiped down between each person's use? what are the protocols that you're going to have in place that people are going to be wondering about? >> yeah. great questions. so the cardiovascular part, as we see is very close together. we've seen some of the ceos overseas, beijing in particular, already reopened, they unplugged every other piece of cardio to help that social distancing there. we're working on protocols like that if that's what the states recommend we do. the strength is different because it's spacious. our gyms are 20,000 square feet, a lot of room. one thing i'm proud of, we've had sanitation in our facilities for decades, cleaning solution and paper towels a lot of the industry doesn't practice that. part of our etty cate for our gym members and staff is we clean equipment before and after use with the cleaning solution that's available it's more or less tightening those protocols and etiquette, everybody clean before and after

use. >> i want to go back to something you said you were talking about the price point for a planet fitness membership and the fact that you saw in the '09 crisis more people trade down and then joined planet fitness because of it does that mean this has actually -- is actually a market share opportunity once things start to settle back to norma d and the worst of the outbreak is over >> i believe that. one of the things i said earlier, people will pay more attention to their health coming out of this. physical fitness does help build your immune system and being healthy and physically fit that on top of the price point people are not going to workout. they're going to workout and be conscious of what they're spending it's an opportunity for planet to widen the mold bigger before we went into this. >> chris, some others like barry's boot camp and others have tried to start to find ways to address at an home audience, selling bands and benches and

then teaching the classes virtually. is that a misguided strategy why do you have to count on everyone coming back into the building >> yeah. that's a great question. we went on a technology endeavor and released our app last summer with a lot of content on it and just since this pandemic started and our gyms are closed we saw a 250% increase in consumption in the app and our content. people at home are ultslizing lan net fitness content. we launched facebook live every night at 7:00 p.m. we go live on air and show on facebook workouts for 20 or 30 minutes and we posted to youtube and over 6 million views of the videos which four weeks ago didn't exist i think this is probably accelerated digital content for the industry probab probably three or four years it would have taken us, it brought it forward if you can't make it to the gym

and in the gyms i see people with their phone against the walls following a routine. it's great for us to give the members content from our system. >> chris, thank you for joining us today ceo of planet fitness. >> thanks for having me. thank you. and meanwhile, new york state is out with its latest numbers on covid-19. governor andrew cuomo unveiled them moments ago. >> the hospitalization numbers for today, tick down from yesterday but a slight tick statistically irrelevant the question for us is, are we past the apex? we have had a number of days that have seen a reduction, reductions across the board, hospitals also say anecdotally they have less patients in their emergency room, which

perspective, the emergency rooms were way over capacity, it was chaotic, it was hellish, and the emergency rooms are still at or over capacity, but it's better than it was. the total change in hospitalizations, you see that it's been going down the three-day average of hospitalizations is going down number of intubations is down again. that is great news not down as much as yesterday, but down number of new people coming in the door with covid diagnosis is about flat with yesterday. this was reporting over a weekend. sometimes the weekend reporting can get a little funky because it's saturday and sunday and they have less of a staff, the reporting may not be as accurate, but it's basically

flat the question that we initially dealt with at the beginning of this as the numbers were going up, the question was how long until we reach the top of the mountain, right. every day it was the number is higher the question is when do you get to the top, how high can it go then we get to the top, the top turns out to not be a peak, it turns out to be a plateau, and then we're on the plateauand it's basically flat and then the question was how long are we going to be on this plateau, how long, how wide is the plateau. the question now is, assuming we're off the plateau and we're seeing a dissent, which the numbers we're seeing a dissent, the question is now, how long is the dissent and how steep is the dissent. nobody knows just the way nobody knew how long the ascent was, nobody can tell you how long the dissent

is how fast does the number come down how fast does the number come down to where it becomes a low enough number that we have some confidence that we have a margin of error does it take two weeks for it to come down. some projections say that. does it take a month some projections say that. again, the projections are nice, but i wouldn't bet the farm on them i don't even have a farm worst news is the number of lives lost, that number is still horrifically high. if you're looking for the optimist's view it's not as bad as it was but 478 new yorkers died yesterday from this terrible virus >> governor cuomo putting grim

but less grim numbers in context. we'll take aomrcl cmeiabreak. stay with us mind. staying connected shouldn't be one of them. that's why we're offering contactless delivery and set-up on all devices. and for those experiencing financial hardship due to this crisis, we'll work with you to keep your service up and running. hi! because at at&t, we're always committed to keeping you connected.

let's get to our steve liesman who has news on the economic outlook. >> good morning. we were wondering whether or not some of the optimism of last week, drugs showing some efficacy and plans by the president to starting opening the economy were to bleed into economic for exampecasts, not t. we came down in terms of the outlook for the second quarter, but we did come up when it looks at the outlook for the third and fourth quarter we're comparing it to april 5th. 11 economists surveyed here. down 34% that's another, what do you want to call that, 7 percentage points from where it was on the 5th. up a little bit when it comes to the second and the third quarter. some people are asking me is that a v well, it's a little bit of a v

in terms of it takes us call it three quarters to really get back what we lost or maybe a little under looking at some of the individual forecasts, what you find is barclay's leading the street on the way down, looking for a 45% -- these are quarter on quarter annualized so it's actually bigger than it would be if it was just a single quarter, but a 35% rebound for barclays goldman at 34% with a 19% rebound and citi right about at the average, maybe the v is looking of all the surveys out there. what are the constraints economists are talking about for the comeback to the economy? first, whether or not businesses actually shutter did they just close down or are reopen and how many deal with the oil business and retail business consumers continuing to shun social gatherings, a second round of contagion factors in all forecasts out there. the ideas that the government is in a relief process but is there going to be stimulus coming from the government to power a second half rebound

goldman sachs writing in a report out this morning where they are looking at stit-- difft techniques w he conclude there's a significant risk of a second wave if policy or social distancing are eased indiscriminately and reopening strategies could involve a sharp ramp up in testing and contact tracing and low cost public hygiene measures i want you to know they have a goldman sachs lockdown index and using a lot of the technology out there to gauge how much people are apart there's an apple and there's a google social distancing indices that a lot of economists are following to see just how effective the social distancing is >> i saw a chart out of deutsch this morning that looks at which states are workers that have to be closest to each other, so people are slicing it all kinds of ways. thanks, steve liesman. as oil gets down to 10.38, all caveats about the front month

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welcome back. our next guest is an acclaimed chef he's part of the president's advisory of reopening the economy. chef, thanks for being back with us >> hello good morning >> doing great i want to get your thoughts on the fact you are on this advisory what that has meant in term of the suggestions you've made to president trump and his team and how they have been received. >> well, you know, i happen to

follow the advisory. i feel it's not only president trump, it's the entire government the congressional leadership, the white house that we want to advocate and have a voice. we are listening to a lot of our colleagues who are really suffering, worried and for us to be able to pass a message not for us but for -- not for the top down is from the bottom where we have to help every one who have small businesses all akros across the country who really need help. they have to start by taking care of the small businesses first before they will take care of the food chain and all that >> yeah, in terms of the payroll protection program, the ppp, it's been getting a lot of

attention because there's been some national brands that have been able to acquire loans, in that first round of $350 billion, which youing shake shack talk about the fact they will give that loan back were you able to apply >> yes, absolutely of those $350 billion, only 9.3% went to the food service industry which may be a little more than 20 billion i think that's my answer is they start from the top down and stop somewhere. they have to do the next care act from the bottom up where they take care first of the small businesses and then they -- i don't think that was enough money, for sure to cover everybody and i don't think it was also fair to have this -- i

think a lot of smaller banks were not organized i spoke to many friends around the country and they would not organize them fast enough to have the presentation and i think the bottom line is the small places suffer out of that. the deadline of june 30 don't work we sent to all leaders of congress and the speaker of the house is an extension of the loan forgiveness so business can

reopen and if we going to get ppp either for the one we didn't get it but will get or if the one who has got it then extend that ppp forgiveness loan. >> i also wonder, even if all of that gets done, does the u.s. restaurant business model have to change? high rent locations that are in some places like new york based on packing as many people as possible into a close space, which with fine in the past but you have to wonder, at what point, even with restrictions being lifted, people are going to feel really comfortable sitting that close to someone else does the model itself have to change >> for example, i think so restaurant daniel. say it's a fine dining restaurant and tables are spaced apart but not spaced apart

enough i am planning on taking my table room and do a very homey samplg, local neighborhood kind of meal where people without -- for a fraction of the cost of a meal at daniel, they can have a wonderful meal done by us. we're not going to have any private dining we're not going to have any private entertainment anywhere for the next three months, i would say. any restaurant with a private room if they will take half of the table in their dining room, they may be able to put them in a private room and offer something maybe as a real like almost like a homey meal, family meal kind of i'm offering something for $50 to dine at daniel.

it's not going to be the same service, the same expectation but at least i feel i'm saving my staff and saving -- i'm helping people and i think that's one solution. also, we know restaurant will have to scale down their seating capacity entertainment with business. that's one thing we also worked with the president when he asked us questions we say there used to be this business deduction and business deduction is not only for big restaurants. it's also for small restaurants. it's for anywhere in the country that company can have advantage of taking deductions of their expenses in restaurants.

i think everybody is facing the same challenge and worry i think if the big, big company will run discount rates from amazon to anything, all the big company have to have the small business this time i'm not talking about restaurants only but retail and all that i think they have to locally also maybe help those small business i don't know how there may be a way to bounce back to those little local business to help them pass through. >> let's hope they have a sense of responsibility even though they have a responsibility to grow daniel, one last thing you see restaurant activity all over the world we're talking about the white house response on small government

is there a government who's doing it better or best? >> i'm talking to the french the french government different social settings who have already brought different things to individuals. we created a foundation to try to pull them in. we have done very well thanks to the generosity of many of our customers and friends and our business partners. we get the initiative to support our staff. i think that was very, very important. i'm reopening my kitchen in new york >> wow >> reopening to the kitchen.

it's very important. >> chef daniel, thank you for joining us so much more to cover. that's going to do it for us here we'll send it over to scott wapner and the half. >> our breaking news coverage of the markets continue right now crude a couple of big brand name downgrades as well in just a few minutes we'll be joined by the legend investor howard marks we debate your money with our investment committee it's good to see all of