good afternoon and welcome back they continue right now on power lunch. welcome. welcome to my kitchen. fwl glad to have you at home that's what we're following. something we never, ever seen before worse day in history hitting, believe it or not, just a penny on the may contract. that's a record lowas that contract gets set to expire. jeff currie will be here to explain what this means. how alarmed you should be, if you should be alarm and what's

next for oil stocks kiging off in the red there's more than 750 cases -- 5 750,000, i beg your par doon we'll talk about that and more as we kick off this hour we kick it off with the markets in terms of stocks holding steady as energy is in a free fall. it's the story of the day. it will be the story of this hour let's get to bob with the set up for these markets. bob. >> the important thing is we are well off of the lows.

industrials weak consumer staples are weak. we're not getting any bounce at all from those defensive plays that done so well for us in the last several weeks like proctor, coca-cola. not much energy there today. one good piece of news, the banks after a rather rough week, the etf bouncing about 6% from its high to low. the key regional banks are trading up most of them were trading to the down side. finally, just on oil, had a lot of inquiries about uso and all these oil efts want to remind every one they own oil futures. either the front month in the case of uso they tend to roll over a couple of weeks before the contracts expire.

uso does not own any of those may contracts anymore. june and likely some july contracts as well. a lot of confusion about how these etfs work that are commodity based that own the futures contracts. what we're seeing here, is pennies for the may contract $22 for the june contract. $27 for the july contract. it's pretty simple all of these people own futures contract, they don't want to own them they don't want to take the liberty of oil and nobody else does either. right now of this front month contract back to you. >> all right thanks very much now we'll go over to the bond market and check in with rick. bonds under a bit of pressure amidst this energy fall out. let's get to rick right now with the details. >> hi. i have to start with the same chart we have been look at all day.

the cme today acknowledged based on where it was if you try to pair up a two year note with a crude oil, the may contract, you'll see since february there's a high correlation, i'd be fibbing if i told you i'm seeing of that action really translate into anything in the treasuries it's a demand issue. at the end of the day that's what's been keeping dates. the big sell off lifted rate a bit on frit is when the fed announced they would be buying less treasuries is the message is the same whether you look at treasures on the yields curve or energy there's less demand in the economy and the treasury and the federal reserve are trying to do

all they can to salvage equities under that notion. tyler, kelly, back do you. >> rick, thank you investors are still trying to gauge the real economic impact of the coronavirus and the market fall out. >> economists were affected by continued numbers on jobless claims last week. we're now looking at a 34% decline. that's down bit from what we had earlier in the bit it's not a bit it's 7 percentage points

is this a v. it takes two, three quarters to get back what we lost in that one quarter. not necessarily a v. looking at which economists are where, 45% decline paces the street which is barclays estimate followed by a 35% they doo have a v built in at barclays one of the strengths economists aring loog at when it comes to the third quarter rebound actually happened, they are worried about business being shudder. a second round of configuration in everybody's risk to the forecast

the money from snaul business and feds mainstream lending program gets out to the economy to keep things from getting worse. >> do you still get the sense people are kind of guessing on this how wide are we talk about in terms of a range on these forecasts. you figured that many people doing that much less work and you can use certain formulas that exist the guess work is how long will we be closed and how much of the economy will be closed and geographically what will be closed that's where the guess work comes in they taking certain assumptions and putting them into the model and coming out with the forecast let's get back to the big

story which is oil and the crushing decline in that may contract the contract gets set to expire amid a lack of demand. i know we have a lot of viewers who may not watch cnbc all the time but they are home now they are tuning in and they need an explainer here. how can this happen? how can oil go to 20 cents barrel does it mean that oil has no value or that this futures contract has no buyers >> let's start with the basics wti is what we call a land locked kruds.

you take oil demand, before the start and run it about 100 million barrels day. it has now dropped to somewhere around 75 million barrels per day. when you think about land locked crudes they are joined by the pipelines. it's like driving down a freeway. you hit congestion and you come to a stop. that's where we are in land locked pipeline cruise it's for places like wyom and

alrea -- wyoming and negative prices. when you think about this particular contract, you cannot store the barrel op oil. it goes to zero. >> so, let me come back to you and point out that just as you were talking there, that may contract went negative it's negative by more than a dollar as i'm looking at it over there now. my backyard is available, jeff >> that question is are you use

trucking or some other type of mechanism to dispose of that oil. oil has no economic value because it cannot be moved to a location where somebody could use it and refine it you have to price it the reason shutting down a well is exextremely expensive they will pay somebody to keep the well running. you will see this go along until the middle of may. >> i was going to you exactly what you just answered

what's the consequence of that one, is that less oil will be produced and maybe the price will stabilize one way or the other. number two is jobs will be lost. >> what we are witnessing is necessary cuts forced on the market by economics. it's not even the price of oil it's the inabilities to deliver. it's logistical issues yes, you're likely to see substantial shut ins occurring in north america where we have a lot of pipeline crude. the other place would be places like russia where you have other pipeline crude as well as latin america and canada we expect to see necessary production cuts of substantial volumes.

>> the a amount of production cuts is nowhere near the amount of demand decline that may be p persi persistents for matter of weeks or months or maybe into next year when this contract expires and we roll to the forward month, june, i think that's what it is. that contract itself is declining very precipitously today as well. what happen next, jeff >> i think the -- thinking about when can this market rebalance it's going to have to rebalance some time in the middle of may.

you have seen nermgermany, spaim of these other european economies begin to recover the recovery will likely be slow but the situation still presents a substantial surplus but it is beginning to show some improvement. let's think about this when we get towards june supplies have been crushed.

>> let me go for one of my double headed questions, what does this mean for the price of gasoline what should i expect to pay two weeks from now and what does it mean if i'm invested in oil stocks, which ones will survivor it which ones will get crushed. >> let's start with the retail price of gasoline. obviously, when you look at brent, it's trading at $26 a barrel right now again, ships can go in and out. the equities haven't come off that much.

one of the key reasons is equities anticipate the future we look at the conneequity, thee pricing that turns point less in late may or june they can look out into the future and see that recovery which is why they have been immune to the sell off for the most part. >> thank you for making sense of all this >> i'm so glad we had mr. currie today. bryan is standing by as well

>> it tells me my high school teacher was wrong. he said you can't fall 100% he's wrong we're down 130%. it's a lot of questions here but i'll try to make a slightly different take on this is when you look at a contract, a paper contract, that's for the price ultimately if you wish to enforce it, physical delivery of something. jeff got into that a bit if you know you're sitting on the obligation to deliver a good whether it's lean hogs or lumber or oil, whatever it is that will cost you something it would make sense for you to sell it at a negative price rather than incur a greater price later.

also, keep this in mind. when you look at the price of any kind of commodity, there's extra to closing it in to reiterate, why would anybody sell oil at a negative price it's expensive and sometimes environmentally difficult to shut down a well pay kelly evans to take my oil rather than spend, 150 couple thousands dollar to shut my operation down if i believe prices will rise does that make any sense i've been up since 2:45. >> does anything about this make sense? >> this is history >> it makes perfect sense because we can explain what's going on we been through a lot of

different crisis and economic events over the past several decades that have never resulted in this. >> it's never -- this is history in the making. i don't want the make light of it there's going to be tens of thousands, if not more job losses they've already started. there's going to be many, many brang rupt sis we have the ppp and small business loan protection it's targeting the oil and gas industry what's your ability as an oil company to pay your debt obligations. when you're not only not making on a product, you may have to pay people to take it. june, right now is the price of oil. june not that may -- the may contracts can hit the headlines.

june is the price of oil 22, whatever change it is. that's what we need to watch going forward. oil still has a positive value you got to remember that june contract could roll over any time as well think about all the the debt we have been talking about it for a long time. oil is a four letter word. d-e-b-t. this will make those debt obligations much, much more difficult to repay margins will get crushed stocks are getting hit as well i think i speak for everybody when i say tgif. see you next monday. >> i think our next discussion might explain why some of this has lessed it's now at negative $8.61 the june contract kind of hovering below $21 barrel.

it's down 16% right across the screen we have break news out of washington it's not positive. >> reporter: there will not be a vote in the senate to expand the paycheck protection program. this has a deal remains elusive. house democrats are expected to hold a conference call at 4:00 p.m. today because there's no deal, there can be no senate passage today he will be calling another brief session of the tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. where this package would be brought up then. it will expand funding for small business loans as well as funding for hospitals and testing by close to 500 brake light. to note today.

whether this slice for testing will be going to the public sector or the private sector that's the fine print that's getting worked out now a spokesperson suggested there could be a vote on wednesday there are questions about whether there would be unanimous support in the house a fiscal conservative from kentucky held up the vote for the original cares act passage and demanded all the house lawmakers come back to washington to vote in person on that that could happen this week which would mean it would be later in the week that the house would see passage. then there are questions about whether the language would change and whether that program will need to be technically rewritten to get that money to businesses we're not sure exactly whether that's the case and how long it would take from that point >> i've learned never trust

them when ever they say it's coming, never trust them we do appreciate the reporting you see stocks and emergency hitting session lows for about stocks and true for oil. tyler. thank you very much. crude is going negative on that may contract not quite as sharply as you might expect given what we heard about oil today and kayla's news a moment ago about the stalemate down in washington why weren't markets lower than they are today let's bring in doug sandler. are you surprised that markets have held up, not just today but lately as well as they have and that we are just, well, we're double digits off of report highs in percentage terms but

15% is not a huge dent i think markets are rally for good reasons that everybody knows what now is sort of the tug of war is if we think about the longer term, things will normalize. there will be a vaccine. there will be a medical solution if you look at normalized numbers and where the economy will be, when things truly do normalize, prices are reasonable i think there's a lot of wood to chop before we get to that point. we don't know the pace of the recovery we don't know how much permanent damage has been done in terms of business failures. we don't know if there will be a second wave of infections when things open up i think that's what some investors are thinking that we

will get back to normal. >> in the short term, and even in the long term we don't really know what's going to happen with the virus we don't know what's going to happen with the economy. we have presumptions, assumptions and so on and so forth. doesn't that sort of add up to an argument to boost cash to the high end of your normal level, if not a little beyond it. >> jong so we know whatever the problem is, we're ingenious with coming up with solutions i've been shocked about how quickly the health care community and the rest of industries responded to this issue. i think it gives you a feel of

how bullet proof the economy is underneath second thing i think about is the amount of fuel added to the fire, assuming we're able to reopen in the next month, that's a lot of fuel that ultimately has to find its place somewhere. you think about the viability alternative, if people are looking at cash and fixed income the past, those have only gotten increasingly poor as a relative attractiveness i don't think the market is being that stew pids here. it also recognizes that government, this stimulus package isn't enough they will come through with more they told us that in any number of ways. the speed bump or stoppage, that

will have to funound this place somewhere. >> david let me get you to react to what doug said there and maybe push a bit on that i wonder, frankly, how quickly the economy will come back we can say open in month or partly open in a month i don't know that we understand the defr station that will know how many jobs that means and how long before those people get rehired. i don't know how soon it will be before people and i don't care what state you live in, it's going to be a while before people are comfortable going back into more close environments and that's going to mean a slower recovery of employment that will mean people, this is a spending economy, david. if people are gun shy about

spending, that's going to have a big effect >> i would agree it's still just a lot of uncertainty in terms of all the things you just mentioned. i think one of the key things that the fed did is they are putting a strong floor under the credit market in certain respects what we still don't know, and that's good news we don't know what's the earnings power of some of these companies as we look out over the next 6 to 12 and 24 months i think everything at a price. i think the market is assuming fairly benign scenario of things getting back to normal

that may happen. i also think there are risks of potential set backs where we have two sets and one step back. >> doug sand her, thank you very much kelly. what a historic day here i keep watching that oil price coming up, we'll talk about how energy is leading the decline to stocks under pressure as the may contract for oil is deeply negative it's taken energy into negative territory which had been positi positive real estate utilities down 3%. we'll have much more on all of this right after this break. woman: my reputation was trashed online.

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welcome back this is going to be one for the record books that's the price of wti crude. it's at minus $35. down 292%. let's go to bryan sullivan with more now that the close has happened, what what next? >> well, i don't know, kelly i've been talking to people today. got off the phone with a guy i trust. somebody broken here

going to negative 35 is ids yachtic. it's a sign there is something broken if it's some kind of levered etf problem. this is not problem. the talk about negative $35,000 to take delivery you can find someone to take it for that that's why i say it doesn't make sense anymore. not when oil is trading positive $20 for june the math doesn't work out. i think we're getting into market structure issues which we have been talking about for a year i never imagined this.

there's a lot of these levered etfs negative two and three times, things like that >> you look at the chart, you look at the flash crash except if it you paused it at the bottom in that's kind of what i mean. good point the question is if i bought a contract a thousands barrels, you're telling me i could make $35,000 or something like that why not have the government buy up all the oil and stick it in reserve. this brings up the storage issues of why we're seeing this play out today >> there is room in the spr. they did approve private companies being able to put their oil in there at least they were talking about approving it i think there's 80 million barrels of space, something like

that that's a broken market i'm sure there are smarter people than i am go on and say sullivan is a ding dong and he doesn't know what he is talking about that's a broken market again, years ago, i was a commodities trader in an ill liquid market before i got into tv this is liquids market, literally. that's not normal. that's not right there's something -- some issue. somebody blew up i don't know i got to do more work on this because i hate to come on your show and say i don't know what's going on hey, no bs here. >> just the b.s. who covers the oil space so well. we'll check back in you soon

jim is managing director of tjim institutional services. jim, explain it to us. bryan said this is broken market i don't know how it's broken but that just shouldn't happen what's going on here >> i think he's probably right i think there's probably something that we're going to find out is broken whether it be a hedge fund we have to remember there's another ponlt. remember the economy is absolutely broken and has been shut down and the demand for oil is nothing i've had the same tank of gas in my car for two months. the point is that if you are fill up on oil and you didn't want anymore, there didn't stee to be a price someone was willing to take it that's probably an over simplification it got to be -- again, i'm trader i didn't know much about the

delivery procedures until today. every one is looking audiotape the tlifr ri procedure it's deliverable the first of may through the 30th of may. it seemed to me that nobody wanted to step in. one they don't want the oil but two, you doinn't want to try to catch it either. look at the stock market it's only down not even t2% they usually trade off we didn't really do that there wasn't a flexive bend in the tenure as well it's almost like every one stood back and is like this is somebody else's problem. we got tankers of oil and no place to put them. it's fascinating never thought we would see anything like this >> i think that's the best explanation i've heard about this all day this is just simply bizarre world. explain this to me, if somebody

making money or people with short -- how could you get that short? >> if you were that short too, at what point in time would you be covering all your shorts. what it that you want. those market -- the may market got extremely ill liquid toward the latter half of the day to answer your question, i'm not sure who is making money i know for certain a couple of things one, i want to be as far away from it as i can be. it's like hide in a bunker or something weird was happening. again, we have to remember that we stopped everything a month ago. somebody like that does not happen would you tell us some severe ramifications in is one of first really odd offshoot we're seeing >> all right going to bring back bryan sullivan

any further thoughts >> i'm still trying to get to the bottom of it maybe jim is still there jim was on this morning. this is a historic day here is why we're saying it's broken or to layer onto jim ease bizarre world comments you're never going to pay somebody that much to take the oil. that's the bottom line you're not going to do it. i don't want to say anything untoward but you're getting to a point where if your costs, if you have to pay somebody that much, whether you own many contracts, there's zero economic -- and you don't have the money and you can't, think of it this way normally i buy your oil, tyler now i'm trying to pay you to take my oil. you're going to get to a point where somebody will say i'm not going to deliver your oil. sue me i'd rather be sued or whatever,

dispose of my oil in some unenvironmental fashion than pay that much money and bankrupt myself to give you that oil. that's the reason i'm saying it's broken because the cost of narcot market would never make sense. nobody would pay 35,000 there are to deliver various contracts of oil when there's nowhere to put it you're just not going to do it that's why i think we need to get to the bottom of how the contracts traded like that >> can i shoot something really quick? >> sure. >> hundreds of oil traders throughout the years and they've been long contracts a lot of times and don't have any facilities to take tlidelivery contract part of the panic could be a bunch of holders of oil going i don't know what i'm supposed to do the yard is not big enough for 2,000 barrels of oil part of the panic element is people getting out who literally

cannot take tlifr delivery they're not set up for that. >> it's all going be delivered to the sullivan estate >> send it to your house, tyler. >> won't work. thanks for more on oil and energy >> lit go right in my hair since i haven't shampooed in weeks >> let's go to trading nation. thank, guys. >> let's continue the discussion around the historic moves that we're seeing in the oil market how significant is this move that we're seeing? >> may contracts for crude amazingly trading to negative territory given the lack of physical location to store oil the commodity is dislocated from the energy stock it's not that much better for the sector which is coming off of its lowest level versus the s&p 500 since 1931

that's a 09-year relative low. we point out that some tanking stops are up in the news there could be trade there we like that area but the rest of the group has been and remains do not touch because it's toxic >> the fact that energy stocks are down 4%, what does that tell you? >> the market is taking this with a lot more grain of salt than the futures market. i think we need to calm down it's not like there were billions of barrels trading at negative 35. i think it is a market location. it could pushed some margin call sboos highly negative territory. it's a horrible situation. of course oil is trading at 3% of s&p versus 17% of the s&p when oil was trading at 140. if you're value investor, this is the exact scenario that you want nothing will be improving in the near term. it will probably get worse

before it gets better. i'm going to be very surprised if perhaps mr. buffet isn't going to start making moves in the mayor oils because at this point, if you're a believer of three, five, six years down the road that india, china, all the other emerging market nations are going to industrialize more and more, demand will come back up it's going to pay off big. i do think ultimately this will be a very -- it's a fascinating day. we'll be talking about it three or four years from now >> thank you head to our website for more trading nation kelly and tyler, back to you still ahead, a historic day for the oil market with plunge into negative territory. we closed at minus $37 a barrel. we'll have a lot more on what this means for both oil, for the energy companies and the whole economy, when power lunch continues.

welcome back we are watching what else, but oil right now. the may west texas contract closing negative on the day. there's the current quote at the settle it was at a negative $37.63. stocks dipping lower on the close of that oil contract right now the dow, as you see there, is down about 1%. nasdaq had been holding onto a gain until relatively recently all right. the small business administration awaiting approval from congress to give out more loans after hitting that initial $350 billion limit we just heard earlier this hour that there is no deal. no vote today.

who is still waiting for relief? let's go to indicakate rogers. >> we are hearing from small business owners still in limbo over this funding and frustrated to here big name companies like route's hospitality and shake shack being able to access those loans. chase told him his application is under review and he is thinking of going to work for amazon while he waits on ppp funding and a disaster loan from the small business administration today he will have to tell his landlord he can't make rent for may. >> it's very frustrating because i've never not made a payment. i've always been very well making sure i get all my payments made and never having to be in that predicament. >> while we are getting more details on loan size, sectors that access and the parts of the country that had the greatest access to this funding we still

don't know how much has been paid out from banks to small businesses the nfib shows that 20% of small businesses who applied say they got ppp funding with 80% being unclear on where they stand in the process. this number is real gut punch. almost 25% think it won't be until 2022 or later before the economy returns to normal. back over to you >> sobering stuff. >> do we have any idea who those small business owners are? what industries they represent, any sectors? >> just today i've spoke on the a bar owner in new jersey that hasn't been able to get one. we talked to this gym owner. imports. these hand bags from china retail, across the board it's been all different types and sizes of businesses and who are still in limbo i can't say there's one answer but there's a lot of frustration

from business owners >> the news at that fund -- >> yeah, not today >> kate, thanks for now. kate rogers with the latest. stocks are selling off look at may ago at negative $37. lowest level ever. huge collapse in the last hour or two has does it mean for markets drove at stewart frankel and fast money trader. steve, your thoughts. >> hey, kelly. this is an unbelievable terrible day for oil historically what does it mean for markets. i'm shocked that the market is only down 400 points it's an oddity to say that but when you look at the sheer demolition that's done, there's ways to explain it, right, you talk to 50 people, you get 50 different explanations like you've been doing.

so when you look at the expiration, the closer you get to expiration of a crude contract, the only people buying it are those that can take the physical delivery. you're not going to get a refiner taking physical delivery, an airline is not going to take physical delivery because there's no flights anywhere there's zero byron net for any of these oil products. that's why you see it. >> the point you make it one jim made well and people are picking up on, thankfully the energy sector only turned negative. conocophillips down 2.5%, steve. like he said, hey, this is somebody else's problem but it's not going to trip up this rally. do you think it's priced in? we talked on the show weeks ago that crude could turn negative. >> thinks about the dislocation and why that dislocation is

present. it's present because last week we heard enp companies are going to receive money from the government to not produce oil. if they aren't producing oil and you see oil sink the way it's sinking now on this month's contract, then the read enthusiastic is net gas is going to have limited production as well oil is going to have limited production so the underlying companies can rally because the supply-demand lines up for them. when you start to look at where we're going to be out for the actual commodity, it's a disaster going forward there's absolutely no technical support in any of the prize in the underlying commodities at all. so when you look at e and p companies, they are going to rally off the fact, a, there's a government bailout, b, there's no production and they aren't worried about commodity pricing

just yet their day will come if the government bailout is not nearly enough or you could keep cutting production if there's no demand, you could cut it to zero and that's what we're seeing today, zero demand. >> jeff said something to tyler at the top of the hour we're fortunate to have him on today. he thinks the peak was last week, germany, u.s. starting to talk about reopening, even as quickly as june you could start to have this market in better position do you think that's true again, oil is a spot price it's not an equity so this might be what it takes to rectify conditions today but could the picture change very quickly? >> i agree 100% with that. if we're talking about getting our economy back to work in the next, you know, two weeks, four weeks on some level, maybe phase one, then the worst -- we should have already bottomed. i agree with that statement. when you look at china growth at the lowest level since the early

'90s, piggybacking everything we've seen and hypothetically seeing maybe another splice in cases when we go back to work. who is going to be gang busters even with us going back to work. >> steve, thanks appreciate you checking in. >> thanks, kelly. >> steve grasso. tyler. >> thanks, kell. markets, of course, under pressure after that historic plunge in the price of oil maybe the stall of a furtherance of the ppp program on capitol hill oil down at negative $37 a barrel for that may contract nobody seems to want it. the dow heading back towards the low of the session when we were down about 500 points or so, as you see right there. we're going to have much more on these stunning moves in the market right after this quick break.

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well, it has been an eventful hour. not only has oil closed at a record negative $37 a barrel, we've got stocks at session lows down more than 500 points right now on the dow that's better than 2% at 23704 s&p 1 2/3 lower, nasdaq loss steepening, though less gra grandiose of the dow and s&p let's bring in john kilduff to talk a little more oil john, you've never seen anything like this. what does it tell us >> it tells you, tyler, there is a mega glut of oil out there that's not going to be clearing any time soon. as a matter of fact, we've got a

big problem on our hands in terms of storage the storage situation is filling up refiners aren't buying, motorists aren't buying, this is a tremendous back-up of crude oil throughout the system. you have to pay dearly if you want somebody to take it off your hands. >> you're going to pay dearly if you want somebody to take it off your hands let's say i'm willing in theory to do that and i think this is going to turn around, is there any reason for me to buy this contract any? >> well, you know, it's a futures market so to the extent you have a clearheaded view of where we're going from here, then go for it. but right now -- it's always darkest before the dawn. i won't say it's not i'll say, this tyler this is going to decimate, crush our domestic producing industry. we could well find ourselves on the other side of this barrel in a year's time where we're caught short particularly if the economy rebounds strongly and all of a sudden the united

states is a vulnerable energy position as opposed to the dominant one it had ascended to. be careful what you wish for here. >> let's elaborate on this a little bit that was going to be my next question there really seems to me no substitute you're going to shut production shutting production means taking what was a revenue producing commodity and making zero money. it stays in the ground workers are closed off it costs money to close the wells, cost more to bring them back on line john. >> tyler, we will be in a bad position producing wise for years, unfortunately we had a lost decade in the 2000s after the oil crash of 1998 it's what got us to $100 a barrel oil $100 a barrel is worth the chance to take -- to frac and try to get that oil out of the ground as hard as it is and

expensive as it is at $100 a barrel, it made a darn bit of money now we're going to be behind the eight ball again. >> all right, john i have a feeling we'll be talk toug again soon. what an hour it's been, kelly. over to you purcha. >> another one to tell my grandchildren about. thanks for tuning in everybody closing bell continues. >> thank you so much for that. welcome to closing bell, i'm wilfred frost. energy in particular in the spotlight, in free fall right now. let's have a look at what is driving the action the cost of wti's may contrast went negative as ever as global demand and storage option evaporate. still no deal for small business, beginning a rescue package for state governments and nasdaq outperforming, certain big tech names like amazon and netflix, which by the way reports earnings tomorrow. down