tv Fast Money CNBC April 24, 2020 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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weeks. >> and i'm going to be watching for one of the stocks of the year reporting earnings next week which is clorox of 25%. the question for so many of these companies that are benefiting as a result of this pandemic like clorox is our consumer behavior going to be altered forever? are we always going to be buying bleach wipes and in my family, wilfred and mike, that will be the case. >> not injecting it or consuming it. >> correct >> thanks for watching stay healthy melissa lee has you covered next. welcome to "fast money," happy friday, your trader for the hour, guy adami, tim seymour, and jeff mills. something that's only happened two times before carter worth will be here to explain. plus beyond incredible and we'll tell you what sent shares of beyond meat soaring today and the chart of the week and how this mystery stock got the attention of our traders
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we start with the 1.1 trillion countdown, amazon, microsoft, apple, all reporting next week and the stakes couldn't be higher guy, we kick it off with you, which of these tech titans will you be most focused on >> hello, mel. and when carter worth is back you know fast money, it's almost back 100%. it's great that cbw is back. for me it's amazon next thursday this is something we've been talking about for a while and while you were away and one of the things we talked about collectively is how well amazon was trading and amazon's rallied 50% from the load we made seemingly a month ago. we'll see if it bores out and i think you own it into earnings on thursday. you pull the rip cord ahead and you look to re-enter the position at 2170 which if you recall was the high we topped
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out in february. that's how i'm looking at it, and that's how i think you trade amazon next week. >> amazon is a microcosm, tim, if you will, of the trends going on right now in this pandemic when we have the work from home trend with aws we have the lower mix when it comes to amazon grocery deliveries and the potential boom with e-commerce >> yeah. in terms of what's happening going into covid and what's coming out of it and they'll be the best operator and they've been not only taking market share and they've been building infrastructure and we know that they've had incremental workers after furloughing some and the net going stronger into this i think google is interesting because of the potential sensitivity to the ad market and potential sensitivity to search especially with things like travel and leisure which is 12% to 15% of their search revenue
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and that's the place that we have to understand from the front line what's going on and google has been the most defensive in terms of valuation when i look at the diversity of the business, as well. 34% of the nasdaq reports next week and those three or four names out there with facebook, amazon and microsoft and it will be a big week. >> jeff, this week when it comes to the leadership in the markets it's really going to be key, we're resting sort of our hopes on our group of stocks at this point. >> we are. carter will talk about it later and more good news is being priced in. the roseiest outlook and you look at the large cap growth area and if you look at the qqq etf, for example, given the concentration of the overall index, if there is a disappointment in the near-term then that could affect the overall market, but i think you have to think about whether you want to be a trader or an investor if you're a trader in the
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near-term there could be a disappointment and i think about a name like microsoft. this is a stock that i'd like to own and it has $60 million in cash on the balance sheet and they've guided down with personal computers and there's optimism given to the cloud business and is that going to live up to the billing and in the very near-term i'm not so sure if you look at salesforce and ibm, they're talking about businesses dial back and their tech infrastructure spending and that number could stagnate in the cloud space over the next couple of quarters and maybe the stock needs to get back in the near-term and long term, great company, and near-term, you're optimistic >> you're a trader and an investor go put your trader cap on, will you? >> i think guys -- i'm with guy when you look at the way amazon has traded and you know it's gone in too far too fast and the
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other name that's interesting about them is they've all been growth stories so when people are concerned that we'll stay at home and the growth isn't going to be there they've all piled into these names. so you have to be concerned about that, but the one i'm really, really watching is apple, right this has been the darling. they've now come out with a cheaper phone and what i'm concerned about is that average selling prices are not going to be there in the future given the environment that we're in, you absolutely want to be out of apple before it hurts. >> or if you're a believer that there are recessionary wins to come and tim, apple may be better positioned in the rest of the world outside of the united states to be selling phones. >> i think you have a case with apple -- my bed. nice delay here. apple is to me between their cash pile and their ability to
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have defensive attributes in the capital market side of the business and the fact is the services business we'll see just how sticky it is, but that should be smoothing out the earnings profile look, the data we got out of apple in terms of the response in march in terms of the iphone sales out of china is very encouraging, and i do think there is some pent-up demand so i'm less worried about apple because i think it's a little bit more defensive on valuation even though relative to itself it's pricey. you know, again, i would go to the places where we're most concerned about the consumer and advertising and the sensitivity on the economics, and i think it's more on google and facebook >> guy adami, indulge me, if you will say you lost your job. >> of course. >> hopefully you won't, but there are millions of americans who have out of work, where do you cut back when it comes to apple you might stick with your phone, if you needed an upgrade you might go with that, but you'll cut back
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on services and services has been a growth part of the business that has been the hope for a lot of the apple investors like a pete najarian who pounds the table on apple and cites the services business as a growth piece. what happens to that piece in a recession? first of all, you control my fate, as you know, mel >> if only >> you won't be seeing me again. >> number two, i'm the wrong person to ask because i don't use services and the only app i have is the clock app and that seems to be free, but i'll indulge you for a minute and say i think you're right i think people will cut back on those things and i'm not convinced -- i don't know -- i'll take the other side of what tim said and i think people have learned to live with less and i think that will manifest itself, and the upgrade cycle that everybody sort of hangs their
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hat on in apple i'm not sure it's going to be as vibrant and robust as a lot of the people hoped and i just point to goldman sachs' downgrade a week or so ago that ahead of earnings they slap a $230 price tag >> the phone app is way up there, guys. and just to push back on the upgrade cycle, haven't we learned from this experience that 5g is more important than ever b.k., if you have a phone that's going to be woefully slow and you have to be remote, you finally realize, hey, i need that 5g. >> yes, but think about a world remote and are you going to be buying an $11 phone and that's the concern is the price point on these phones are going to be very expensive so i -- you know, listen,
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whether you use the phone app and the calculator as guy does on his guy phone or use the other apps on the application store, i don't think services are going up and i don't think that people will be buying $1,000 phones. >> by the way, the application store is open despite shutdowns. because it's not a physical store. >> oh, it's on the line. it's on the line >> the chart master says something is about to happen that's only happened twice before and it could spell trouble for the market and let's get to carter worth with more. hey, carter, nice to see you >> likewise, nice to see you well, what it is, of course, is we have the big companies and all five that represent a huge chunk of the market and it's rare to report and that's only happened two other times in their combined history and we
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have a few slides here take a look and what we know is we kick off with google and that's on tuesday. tuesday through friday all five report ending with apple and amazon on thursday what i know is this basket of stocks which is concentrated before the market crashed in february or march is more concentrated we're almost up to 25% of the s&p and it's the same size as the bottom 250 and now 325 to end it, if you looked at that is right cha you would imply the valuations are different and the con sepp tragz is moral hazard and just take a look at the
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table in january 26, 2015 and january 29, 2018, this happened, all five reported and the week ahead, not good for equities this wasn't a particularly good week for equities and industrials and industrials and they're down for the second week in a row and financials and so much is dependent on these names that more and more money is hiding there, if you will, and my thinking is that continues to be a problem >> carter, you mentioned the performance going into this critical week in the past and how about the tech sector and how it performed going into a critical week and how it compares to how we performed this past week if you think about the most recent one in 2018 the whole market was spiking and it's one of the ishls si readings and obviously having come from a rash and the performance of
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tech, these names whether you call tech, and it's the idiosyncratic and they were performing well both in 15 and in '18 and then, of course, the market did not do so well thereafter >> okay. carter, thank you. carter worth at cornerstone macro. over to you first. >> i talked about it with microsoft and i think it's true with the other maims and there's optimism priced in and if you look at the way the market is beha behaving in general. i don't think so. >> i look at industry pairs like semiconductors versus software and consumer discretionary versus consumer staples and you don't see cyclicality in the ratios and you still see investors paying off for safety and ultimately, they economy will still be troubled during a
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period of time and we've had awful trading and those names will have to be pulled down as the economy continues to struggle yes. they're absolutely positioned in a better way in most case for this kind of environment, but overall they're not completely impervious to the environment and that ran a lot of optimism priced in and the way with the overall market is more at risk going forward. >> what do you think is more as a defensive stock right here, right now. a procter & gamble, let's say or an apple >> i think it's an apple and i get why procter & gamble and particularly covid-19 post proctor is one where we understand the eat at home dynamic, but jeff talked about the defensive nature of these stocks that that's where money goes and apple, i realize that apple brought the goldman upgrade and what's the multiple.
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>> either way, relative to itself the multiples aren't great. facek boo, google, i would argue apple and some would argue microsoft less so are all valuations you don't have a difficult time buying in the balance sheets in this environment where toy moo it's almost more about credit and i think those are the defensive stocks and i think they will remain defensive and, look, the nasdaq's been above the 200 day for two weeks now. the vix is now sub-35 and is that good or bad these guys are saying you sell that and i think we would have a case where markets have come down a bit and if anything, this is the marginal dollar and it may not be good news overall because of the lack of breadth and carter brings us up and those are the defensive stocks >>. >> i'll give you some choices. of the big-cap names this coming week, this is the most defensive right now in your view or none
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of the above >> the most defensive out of the ones reporting this week in my opinion, typically i would say google and in this environment i would say no i understand what jeff mills said before and he's spot on, but if you made me pick i would say microsoft, msft. >> microsoft even though i gave you the choice of none of the above? >> technology is a none of the above. i did that on the s.a.t. and it never worked for me. >> apparently not. beyond meat sizzled and we'll find out if any of the traders are taking a bite out of this name and later, why this stock can see a whole new world of opportunity when the coronavirus re subsides. stay with us fast is back in two. i know that every single
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welcome back to "fast money. beyond meat sizzling to bring its weekly gain to 41% and that is its best week ever. a few factors driving the gains, supply chain disruptions weighing on traditional meat manufacturers and beyond meat centered china through a partnership with starbucks so i go to b.k. because you're a chief alt-meat correspondent having extensive experience with both beyond meat as well as impossible burger, but do you buy all of these sort of tailwinds for this stock >> i mean, so, one, yes. i did the vegetarian challenge and i tried both the beyond and the impossible burger. i just have to say impossible is much better and when you push it down on the grill it just smells and not good nonetheless, in this environment, it is a trading stock in this environment and
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everyone is looking at it and they're up 41% and hard for b.k. to buy it. in this environment i certainly like it. >> up 41% for the week and i don't know where you stand in this sector. if there is a meat shortage, beyond meat can still crank out meat as long as there is key protein available in this world and that supply chain is still good >> people at home, aren't that they eating frozen french fries and frozen pizza or something like that? >> i am. if this is all about the meat shortage i don't know, if you didn't want fake meat before enif you'd want fake meat now. i know there's the question of is this healthy or not i don't know if that debate has been solved and for those looking for a healthy alternative longer term, the jury is still out. it's interesting, and it's up 85% this month and today it touched as carter would say to
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the penny its 200-day moving average and it failed closing at 109 and technically it failed at an important level today so just given the run its taken and like i said, i just don't know that long term the meat shortage is going to drive the type of demand they're doing good things and the partnership with starbucks and trying to get into china i understand that, and i can't get behind the valuation especially with the valuation its had >> guy, i feel like i should put up a disclosure because you had a terrible experience with beyond meat and it might influence with the way you perceive the stock, but if you can try to separate your experience with the stock, and give us your opinion on the stock that would be helpful. >> i could absolutely separate my experience. i'll say this, i would not insult my barbecue by putting a beyond meat burger on it, b.k., but you know, that's neither here nor there what i'll say is despite the problems i had post-beyond meat, i think the stock's going to trade up to the january 21st tie
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of about 130 or so into earnings on may 5th and you have a big short interest in the tailwind and it's one of these names that people want to get in the way of and there's going to be an opportunity and i just think it will come in the form of 130, not 109, but if you want to hedge or double lever that i'll be beyond it. >> people playing the video of the beyond meat taste test it wasn't the video of the consumption of the alt-meat that was the problem. it was something that happened later that we luckily don't have any video of, tim. >> we seem to spend too much talking about that on this show and this has covid-19 headwinds and that is something that we're not going have much past this. there is no way there is a response and a classic ag story and commodity story.
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51% are coming from food service. >> they have a headwind right now and the dynamics and the same things that are hurting all of these fast food chains and all of the restaurants are hurting this company and when you get back to normalcy, this valuation makes no sense relative to the competitive landscape. you don't touch this one and i wouldn't short it and it's all about a tailwind. >> this was stuck in a mousetrap this week and one of the trade sers saying hakuna mat atta and why he sees magical gains instead. that when we're back in two.
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welcome back to "fast money. many of us are in quarantine and we have no idea that day of the week it is what stock are you eyeing, jeff? >> i talked about it on the show after it pulled back after the low 130s after the disney plus pop it had, but disney is down 30% year to date it's 24% below its 200-day moving average the broad market is down 7%
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below and certainly room to recover there and obviously, the recently announced 50 million disney plus subscriber and i go back to what reed hastings said on the netflix call and their ability to execute properly, i continue to be impressed by that and we'll continue to be able to do that going forward. i live in a house with three small kids and we have this on 24/7 and families and folks that may have not subscribed to this prior to the stay at home order may have now and because of the quality of the product they may stick with it and given the environment we're in it may accelerate the way people consume media from this in-home era. >> this is a stock that was trading at 23 times at the end of last year over the last 15 years it was trading at 15 times and it usually trades above the broad market looking at the s&p. right now it's two multiple turns below. so i think from a valuation
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perspective, look, i understand that the business is going to be challenged this business is predicated upon a lot of people getting together at one time but a lot of that bad news is reflected on the valuation. this is a company that's going to be around for a long time and i want to own it here. >> all right i want to get to the final trade on the friday. >> brian kelly [ indiscernible >> jeff mills? >> yi like the health care sector it will be up 30% year over year health care tends to outperform the broad market. >> tim seymour >> how about that recovery in intel? this was a very, very strong recovery after a very conservative guide for the company that in the middle of all of this is defensive even in the core chip space, intel, get long >> guy adami >> mel, were you surprised that the giants went with the tackle from georgia
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>> happy friday, everybody i'm melissa lee and it is time for a special edition of options action and we are joined -- >> the stock is up 14% over the past month, but the stock master is not convinced that the run will continue. carter, what are the charts telling you? >>. >> well, of course, look. >> this is a darling along with the super cap name, but its behavior since january has been very poor relative and let's take a
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