tv Fast Money CNBC April 30, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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markets had a soft day today, but unbelievably strong month. >> very strong month 12.5% and up 32% or so from the lows and also the theme of it doesn't really owe you anything, so i think it's kind of let's assess if that was too much, too soon or not. >> and we are out of time on "closing bell". >> and of course -- >> go for it sara. >> best month for stocks since 1987 though coming off the worst month in the '30s. >> melissa lee, over to you. >> i'm melissa lee, apple, amazon, visa, united all in the move in the after-hours session and many of the conference calls are just getting under way our traders tonight are standing by to break down the big headlines. with us for the hour, guy adami, tim seymour, dan nathan and karen finerman, but we begin with the biggest one, apple well off its after-hours highs and we have full-team coverage and deidre bossa is digging into amazon
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gene munster is gearing up for both of the calls. we kick things off with apple which is now negative after a brief pop after the release and josh lipton spoke with tim cook. josh, what's the latest? >> melissa, one question i had for tim cook is what he's seeing in china obviously, so important for apple as a key link in that cup's supply chain and also as an important end market. i asked him what his iphone demand looked like in china and whether you can extrapolate for that and china is the leading indicator for possibly europe and the u.s. and cook telling cnbc there is a significant, steep falloff, and that began to recover some in march and we've seen further recovery in april and it leaves room for optimism. it's hard to tell that's a leading indicator and there are differences and the u.s. has had a bold stimulus program and i think that will clearly help and i'm optimistic of the pace of the recovery in the united states i asked him about the work from home trend and so many millions of people learning and playing
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from home, and how has that shifted demand from products and services and it's clearly helping the ipad and the mac and for that reason, we envision both of those to have proven year over year performances, and if you look at tv plus, we've seen an uptick in the number of people that are viewing content as well as the engagement with content and finally, i did ask him about the new iphone and the low cost model and it starts at just $399. so i did ask cook if he was concerned that the popularity of the se can tank his margins? the iphone se plays to the person who really wants an iphone, but wants to do so on a tighter budget, as well. so it is very affordable and it's faster than the android phone. i never worry about cannibalization, and we couldn't
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be happier about the se. the company did not provide q 3 and 4 cash we asked cook about the lack of guidance he said there was too much uncertainty to say what the next 60 days are going to look like back to you. >> josh, thanks. >> basically, we've given up the gains that apple's made. guy adami, is this a change in apple or is this a sell the news phenomenon >> i think the latter. sell the news. i don't think it's a disappointment and it's better than a lot of people thought and services was much better than people thought and now it's close to 25% of this quarter's revenue. it's pretty encouraging. i'm sure a lot of people love and the na sheaers would not like i think -- i find the stock in this environment with today's take somewhere in no-man's-land. the goldman sachs downgrade still resonates in my head and for every goldman sachs you'll upgrade the stock.
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so at current price levels i think you're pretty much spot in the middle of a range and now you have to play stock market and ask yourself are we starting to roll over or does this market roll to the upside still intact? >> i don't know the answer to that, but we're probably due for a pullback, broader market >> dan, what's your take >> guy mentioned that services was better than expected about 17% growth year over year and that's what it was in their prior quarter. you know, listen, that has decelerated pretty massively and that was a big part of the story. that helped the multiple last year in 2019 nearly double on a p-e basis on the stock, and i think investors at some point last year made the decision that this thing deserves to trade at a consumer staple multiple, something like a coke or a proctor. they're above 20 times so i guess the question you have to ask yourself now are iphones going to continue to grow because that's the only way that you grow services and the ecosystem and wearables around it by growing iphone units and
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they really haven't done that over the last few years which brings you to the iphone se. there was a disappointment on gross margins, but listen, this was a tough quarter and they did really well. to guy's point, i think it is a little bit of sell the news. does it deserve to trade 24 times this year, 20 times next year which are record highs for this stock in the last ten years, and i would say given their uncertainty, their ability to forecast the current quarter, i would say no and it would settle in lower than here. >> i get that in concerns of the valuation, should we not be comparing apple to itself, but rather to the markets and this environment and whether it deserves a premium versus the broader markets today? >> right well, it is getting a premium, that's for sure if you look at the p-e, it's getting a premium and obviously, the fortress balance sheet and that deserves some part of the premium that goes to that, but i think that what guy said, i think was
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right, in terms of given the run that its had, i think the short-term future for apple is more beta with the market than alpha which would be apple, sort of outperforming on its own. >> given the run, this was a very good quarter. i was very pleased and there's a lot to like about how that higher multiple should give them a higher blended multiple and i think the stock was 220-ish on the lows so its come back so far, i actually am long, but i wouldn't -- i wouldn't be adding to it right here unless you have a very strong view on the market and a very quick recovery in the united states >> if i had to characterize so far, tim, the sentiment toward the stock by your three fellow traders it would be -- when it comes to the valuation at this point. do you agree
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>> well, i can't say that i'm ready to go in and buy a lot of apple today, but i'll push back a little bit on what everybody said i'll push back on dan and say i actually think you have been growing services revenue on the delta on services revenue has been growing in this difficult ipad shipment growth period. to karen i would say you had alpha in apple at least relative to the market so it wasn't just beta before you went into covid-19 so apple was outperforming the market on the sense that services revenue is doing well, and i forgot what guy said, but i'll push back on him just for the sake of doing that i think you have a case here where the things that were driving this multiple, guy talked about the multiple. the things that were driving the multiple, record services and you know what else is driving the multiple their capital markets activity and you reloaded the gun and they'll continue to pay this dividend and apple has no one to
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apologize to in terms of how they handled the buyback program. j.p. morgan puts it at 20 times multiple and that's your bid ask as for as i'm concerned and i would lean toward the top end of that >> we'll keep track of apple and in the meantime, let's go to amazon and it is up in the results. deidre bossa has the latest. >> hey, mellaa amazon certainly performed as the street wering expecting, but where we felt srt and here are, and at the top of the press release, under this q2 we would expect to make $4 billion or more in profit and these are not normal circumstances, instead we expect to spend the entirely of the $4 billion perhaps a little bit more on covid-related expenses and getting products to customers and keeping employees safe
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given rising labor unrest there is a big push on amazon's side to show that they are taking care of its workers and that in turn, will be good for the company if they get capacity online and fulfill orders. >> also, i want to pin tck out store sales. minus 1% year over year. whole foods makes up the majority of that and their grocery am bibitions finally tag a bit of a hold. the call kicks off at 5:30, and he also gave more color on the media call that i just got off of he said capacity constraints have been easing and they have hired the 175,000 workers already that they set out to hire he declined to give number on total cases of warehouses and that's interesting because there are a lot of questions surrounding that with another
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strike scheduled for this week for tomorrow the key takeaway, melissa, amazon is worried it can lose money even as demand surges and it wasn't so long ago that amazon was not turning a consistent profit. so you're seeing shares down about 5% in the after hours and it gained 4% today it is still up 30% year to date. >> thank you >> deidre bossa. >> hi. >> you've been pretty steadfast in your call for the report. >> i love the word steadfast it's a fantastic word. i use it all of the time it's one of my crutches. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. >> if you go back and look at one thing we've been talking about, amazon bottomed out a week or so before the broader market and when things were going pear-shaped on march 23rd amazon was going up. amazon was going to continue rallying into earnings it rallied 52, 5-2% from the low
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print to the high print i think today, actually and i thought it would give back. i still think you will have an opportunity to buy it at 2170 and that's where you reload. this quarter, by the way was outstanding by any metric including operating margins which could have gotten crushed and they're still at 5.6% and you have to tip your cap, but jeff bezos, when he tells shareholders to take a seat because it will be a wild ride i'd listen to the man and that's not negative about amazon. it's just trying to the opportunity. >> it is all over the place when it comes to the costs and mixes, and karen do do you even see a point where you can say maybe this company has got it and maybe the valuation you can look past
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>> yes, actually maybe. i love that it's down after this extraordinary run. i do think that when they have had to respond to the pandemic the way that they've had in such a short amount of time, i think it guy's point, to be as they were is kind of amazing. when they talk about hiring that many people and getting them onboard and trying to keep everyone safe that works for them i know that's been the source of some discontent and then thinking about how do they just deploy that massive amount of new orders and they've been able to do it pretty successfully you have to think that even if it were tos, operating in the future to get people onboard and get them to work efficiently i'm really impressed and i think they'll come out of this so much
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stronger and the idea that they were willing to give guidance for the coming quarter and the revenue growth is -- i mean, it was a wide range, but somewhere in the 20s, they can fall in that is extraordinary and you know, when you think about whole foods and what they've been able to do with that, i'm pretty impressed, and i think they'll come out much stronger in the other end. >> calendar second quarter in terms of giving guidance, dan, that should have been guidance yet amazon chose to give guidance that's pretty telling. >> yeah, and i applaud them, in a way. it shows they're bracketing what they think their business looks like from a best case or worst case so good for them i think guy is correct about the ability to reload. there's just unusually positive sentiment in the name. when you saw it break out and just straight higher you say to yourself, okay, this can't last like this
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mark cuban last week on our show, i think he said it's going up, up, up, up he didn't say it will come back a little bit stocks like this need to back and fill just to make a point of 2019 this stock did underperform because of the spending that they were doing to get ready for -- not ready for the pandemic, but their future literally lied with logistics. it lied with the ability to get people things in one day and that sort of thing ultimately, they're being rewarded for those investments tox, will come in and more will be rearted later on. i don't know where you want to start. there's so much to dig into, where was the report where you say the stock reaction was warranted? >> amazon. great results and the fact that they maintained is positive on amazon the spend curve, i just want to
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put that into perspective and the $4 billion in spending, they talked about same-day spending of 900 million in that quarter and this is in line with what they historically have done on the spending side and i understand that reaction and amazon makes a ton of sense and this has traded over a hundred times next year's noons and after analysts make their adjustment not surprised. there say difference between companies changing the world and doing great things and great investments and i want to draw a line with apple's results makes no sense to me, i always make a prediction where i think the stock should be trading and on these numbers i thought it would be up 5+% and i don't know where it is at this minute, but ultimately this is a rock solid company, and i do have, i am on a different page than the investors versus the traders the conversation today was about apple being an expensive stock
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understand for apple relative to its past it has moved up in the past year but this is still relatively inexpensive and at end of the day, it was the most at risk large tech company coming into these earnings they have flat revenue flat year over year. wearables, the numbers that they don't report ands it was up 24% year over year >> it didn't decelerate and impressive and the earnings power of this company is that you're rpging kofled in apple. >> what are questions that you would have from the management teams on the conferencecall? >> we have the big plans comment from jeff bezos, what is that really related to? my guess is it's something
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delivery and that's an area that they can continue to innovate. in terms of apple, tim cook at an internal meeting a few days ago talked about the product road maps and some of the things that they're working on next year i think you need to basically take 2020 and really discount it almost entirely and take it to 2021 and which will be best positioned and the question related to apple is how do you see your product trajectory? tim cook teased and they'll have some iconic rukts and maybe it's the 5g phone and maybe it would be something else, but that would be my question >> yeah. hey gene, you push back on the traders. this is company that will not grow earnings and sales this year, and it didn't grow iphone units. so where if you're saying look past 2020 and look at 2021, where is the valuation and where do you expect earnings to be
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next year? >> what i consider fair value consistent with the large cap names excluding amazon and netflix. if you look at google, facebook and microsoft and they tend to trade 25 to 30 times yes, they do have higher growth at times, but i do believe that apple, if you think about where they're going and think everything around 5g, wearables and health and wellness, streaming services, all of these will ultimately create an earnings growth with the buyback and it was impressive what they did with the buyback today i think it should grow earnings at 10% to 15%, very similar to the other large cap names. i've been a tech investor my entire life. i understand that cash is not that valued by tech investors and the power it has to generate cash on a consistent basis, i think should drive at a minimum, a consistent multiple with
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facebook, google and that would be 25 to 30 times. >> thank you. >> in the past two days, we've had about 20% of the s&p 500 report, was this the ultimate sell the markets event because we had such a bulk of the markets report >> we rallied so hard into it and other areas that weren't necessarily covid, we were so embroaded in a trade war ask we wanted the bottom up numbers and these companies have given you a decent outlook and the last two days and the first three weeks of april is flat for facebook and google was more or less crawling and stabilizing so i think we have a case here where the valuation dynamic is very tough to call we've been saying that since the start of the earnings call but
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gene pointed out the apple and in terms of amazon and there are companies like amazon and amazon's ahead of the class, but there are a lot of companies that pulled forward sales or were rewarded by the market because of their perceived or actual positioning as a taker of market share coming out of this. i think you have to be really careful. look at what happened to walmart which has been a big market play because of this period i think there will be reassessments of what's performed and what not. >> up next, and rhysa are out with results and what the with results and what the companies are saying about the , with pure protein. high protein. low sugar. future later, savita will join us when she returns. high protein. low sugar. mmm, birthday cake.
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welcome back to "fast money. the earnings keep rolling in and our team of reporters are standing by to break down the headlines and phil lebeau is on united and we kick off with kate rooney and more on visa. kate >> hey, melissa. good to see you. visa topping expectations with the quarterly earnings and revenue, but the company's seeing a slowdown and the effects of covid-19 on consumer spending visa ceo kelly kicking off the call saying that a year that looked quite promising after a solid first quarter has been substantially disrupted by covid-19 because of uncertainty in the global economy, visa's saying it will not give full-year guidance one area to watch here, cross-border payments. this is a higher margin one for visa and makes up a third of the
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revenue. that fell 2% in the quarter as international travel is mostly on hold. overall payments growth came up short of expectations, as well late march volume specifically saw sharp declines, spending at restaurants and travel saw a major slowdown another interesting nugget, guys, kelly saying visa saw a more than 40% rise in consumers using tap to pay thanks to caution around spreading the virus. this and other secular trends like the rise in e-commerce should help visa, but analysts still want to know throughout the rest of this and the analyst call, if the worst is over when it comes to the spending slowdown >> kate, thanks. kate rooney on visa. >> tap to pay, the driver of that is exactly what is causing that drag on their all-important cross-border business. no travel, no airlines, no hotels and that's a major problem for not just visa and also for a lot of the cars that have built a business and brands and they built brands around the idea for points for travel
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>> well, yeah the cross border and travel go hand in hand s you point out that's a business for them. mastercard, i think reported almost exact lely the same thin. it was notable to me they didn't see the cadence of the quarter for visa and it's probably similar to what mastercard did which was terrible through the end of march and terrible through the beginning of april and actually only a little bit better we've seen other businesses like facebook, for example, talk about stabilization. and even after talking about that i thought that mastercard and probably visa would have bounced back more than they did and the stocks, i think, visa went from 220 to 140 and it's half way back and it sounds like a perfect half retracement they're not cheap here at 30-plus times earnings and i'm long mastercard, but it's
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similar to apple i wouldn't be buying more right here >> let's turn now to united and that is moving higher after reporting. phil lebeau has the numbers. phil. >> melissa, we said this time about the airlines and the results were out there and it was a smaller than expected loss of $2.57 a share and revenue light of expectations coming in at $7.98 billion and it's the cash and liquidity and that's what everyone is focused on. for united and we're telling you through yesterday because this is changing every couple of days it has $9.6 billion in cash on hand and that's up from 7.2 billion at the end of q1 daily cash burn, consider this in march when covid-19 hit they were going through $100 million a day and they believe that by the end of q2, that will be 40 to 45 million a day. it's also targeting a much lower cash burn rate in the second warter and it ended the first
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quarter with $6.8 billion with cash on hand and plans to end with cash on hand. they want to have as much cash as possible to make it through q2, q there, delta moving jetblue in requiring passengers will have face masks >> guy arc adami, i'll go to you with the airlines either fizzecly fiz physically or buy the stock. >> if you think magically in the next six to nine months you buy the airlines witheth bo hands. i just don't see how that's possible the airline industry will be fundamentally changed and that will have a tremendous impact on their ability to make money. now the question is have the stocks discounted that
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i don't think they have. united, for example, has rallied from $20 to where it is now, 31 or so and that's obvious percentage wise, a significant move i think you've got to wait and see what the world looks like and if you miss the move to the upside which i probably will, then you just say i'm sorry and i'm trying to be pragmatic i think you sort of have to wait on these airlines to see watt wor what the world looks like if you want to wait for a few months. >> if you believe that the airline industry and how we use airlines will fundamentally change and not revert back to normal for at least six to nine months and the ripple effects and all sorts of other businesses lake a visa, like any of these affinity cards out there that consumers are buying for reward points, like an expedia, dan it goes on and on. >> yeah, mel, this is where the airlines are telling the right story at least in the stock market the lack of balance. i know guy mentioned united
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airlines went from 20 to 30. listen, i fly united usually once or twice a month for business i have no plans to get on a commercial airplane for the rest of this year, for business or for pleasure that's not changing. there is no vaccine coming there's not going to be the level of testing or the confidence in the antibody testing so i think that people need to get comfortable with the fact that whole trickle effect that you just mentioned. i used expedia and visa and the cross border payments and none of what i did last year will happen for the balance of this year these companies are in it for the long haul here and those capital raises will keep on coming if the financial crisis is any indication of how frequently banks had to raise capital, i think they'll have to raise capital and delude their equity holders. >> tim, quickly. you did have the backstop of the u.s. government. >> well, you do, but i think the point of normalcy is a debatable
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one. i do think there will be people that come forth and the airport system and getting on an airplane will have a different set of rules and cost, but we'll figure this out and i think i will be flying before the end of the year >> up next, fast track where we are being troising the data to get you the trade and the hidden nugget in the jobless claims report that tells us where the economy might really be heading and bank of america's savita subramanian, the one part of the market she's calling an all-time buy. the company's earnings call is just getting started a wrende' listening in and we'll get you started. stay with us fast is back in two. w. w. to keep business moving. comcast business is prepared for times like these. powered by the nation's largest gig-speed network. to help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. and a team of experts - here for you 24/7. we've always believed in the power of working together. that's why, when every connection counts...
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we're committed to making college more affordable., that's why we're keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. - [student] i knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. - [narrator] find your degree at snhu.edu. welcome back to "fast money. time for fast track where we track the data to capture the
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trade and there is a hidden nugget in the jobless claims reports from this morning. while there was a drop in the total number of claims filed we are seeing a shift in the type of worker filing for unemployment according to a washington post analysis in the first few weeks since the shutdown we saw big upticks in filings from jobs from food service, construction, management, finance, administration, groups that many might have thought would be more immune to the downturn dan, the implications is that perhaps we haven't seen the worst in terms of the pullback in spending or the worst in terms of the impact on the economy. >> yeah. i think that's really important and we're just a couple of months into the crisis and we look back at the financial crisis that it took a year, year and a half to see the unemployment rate top out at some point in early 2009 near 10%. we front end loaded unemployment of all those sectors that have been adversely affected, but you
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will see this white-collar stuff. a lot of corporate america, the optics are bad for them to start firing during the health crisis and that's coming this summer and this fall. i think you will see unemployment come way down once we unlock the economy, but then you will see it stay up in high single digits and i'm not an exist for a while and that's the negative impact that you will see on consumer spending in the back half of this year >> that's interesting. the optics of firing people, guy, and the notion that once we're part of the pandemic that we could have a lot more layoffs and firings, et cetera you pair that with the consumer spending number that we got this morning which is the biggest drop since 1959 and you've got to think, perhaps we're in for a lot more pain with the pullback in spending. >> first of all, i give dan a lot of credit and that's not an easy thing to say and i'll echo it and nobody would be willing to say this and i understand why,
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but quite frankly, i'm on. >> guy, sorry to interrupt we have breaking news out of the white house. we have to get to kayla tausche for the latest kayla? >> melissa, president trump is answering questions from reporters right now. he was asked about the washington post report earlier today about wanting to retaliate against china for the coronavirus. president trump asked if he would actually not pay the debt that is currently held by china, approximately a trillion president trump called it a great idea and said he doesn't want to play that game because of what it would do to the u.s. dollar and it was the sanctity of the u.s. dollar he said he could retaliate against china in the order of a trillion dollars just by tariffs and we could do it in a forthright manner. he said now is not the right time to penalize, and he is prepared to ak action when it's right to do so melissa?
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>> thank you, thank you, kayla tausche. this is stunning given the comments from larry kudlow who said, quote, this is absolutely and unequivocally untrue the full faith and credit of the u.s. debta obligations is sack on safrn sacrosanct, and again, within the realm of possibility that there could be retaliation for the virus against china. guy adami, you flagged this when this washington report came across this afternoon as potentially bigger than what we had gone through with the trade war when it comes to u.s.-china relations. >> again i'm not trying to be mel on dramatic here. i'm sort of trying to keep it real i thought that's extraordinarily significant, the fact that they're talking reparations and a trillion dollars i mean, if we're going to go down this rabbit hole again, correctly or incorrectly, i'm not a politician, but there is no way that is market positive
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especially in the environment that we find ourselves in and the fact that, you know, the president's comments are somewhat contradicting mr. kudlow's comments that comes as no surprise, because if you pay attention that happens almost on a weekly basis >> very true for more on the impact on the markets let's bring in savita subramanian, great to speak with you. >> likewise. >> could this be the black cloud over the market? >> yeah. i would agree with guy it's not really surprising it's really more of what we've seen in terms of just a shift from a global economy from more localized economies and i think the timing we're heading into campaign season. i think that this is another
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driver for companies, multinational companies shifting supply chain risk or bringing it back to the u.s. i actually think it could be shorter term positive for the u.s. economy because if you think about it, just bringing manufacturing capabilities back to the u.s., you know, shifting to more of a local economy could actually be good for u.s. economic growth. it could be good for smaller companies. we could see sort of a little bit of a pickup in manufacturing in the u.s. which has been a sore spot throughout this full market and the ten-year bull market that we had i think some of this could actually benefit the u.s. economy, but i think it's kind of more of what we saw even pre-covid and it's basically been hastened by the pandemic which is the idea that, you know, u.s. companies are
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being -- onshore and think more locally rather than globally, but it is an interesting development and certainly one that are for further exploration. >> we've been teasing you, savita, in terms of what your headline could be in the segment and we've been saying that you have one sector that's an all-time buy and it does seem to play into sort of this idea that we are going to have a recovery. so what is that sector and do you see a sharp recovery in the u.s. economy for the pandemic. >> as you know, i've come on the show and talked about banks in the past >> i think what's really interesting about financials right now is if you look at china. so china has come back online. we've seen activity start to normalize in china and they're maybe a month or two ahead of us in terms of the outbreak
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in china the sectors that were at full claft and writing banks and we're seeing with other manufacturing segments and this is what she was responding to before the breaking news is we're not seeing that in the consumer-oriented areas of the economy. when i look at financials, i think, great this is a sector that will probably recover faster than others and an upturn and it's priced relatively conservatively and it still looks relatively cheap versus other areas of the market and when you think about quality. it's got quality and income potential and then the kicker and the reason i'm bringing it up on "fast money" from a trading perspective is that it is deeply underweight by investors. right now carrying about a 10% underweight in the average mutual fund. then you compare this to, you
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know, bank stocks which are carrying almost a two times overweight so i think there is a lot of opportunity here to pick up cheap financial companies that could benefit the most from a recovery or benefit the earliest at the very least. >> savita, always great to speak with you >> savita, tim, what did you make of savita's thoughts? >> always interesting thoughts from savita. it's funny because when dan mentioned that the airlines in the last block are kind of representative of where the market is or they're doing a nice job of bringing in temperance and i would argue that the banks have done that and maybe banks have been the most mispriced relative to the s&p. think about the drivers for banks. not only do you have these banks trading at 20% to tangible book discounts to where they were, but you have these earnings reserves have been put aside and these loan provisions have been put aside, and you have, i think, a major tailwind and i
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don't presume that we won't have significant loan and credit issues, but for the most part these banks have been extremely conservative and how they've accessed that and they're the ones that at this point in the market with the s&p 2850 to 2900, this is a case where the banks have not kept pace with this rally karen, just quickly in terms of the bank, your top pick right now? >> i have the most money in j.p. morgan and second, bank of america. >> coming up, burger battle. mcdonald's shake off a massive drop in sales, but where is the stock going from here. shake shack, why options traders are ttbeing that shack can rally on the results stay with us
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welcome back to "fast money. mcdonald's falling after a decline in same-store sales and a 23% decline in march alone we heard from the mcdonald's ceo earlier on cnbc and he warned that things could get worse in q2, but the stock finished well off the low. tim, do you still like the golden marches here? >> i like golden arches. we talked about the sectors where the white caller was feeding in, and i think that the pain existing in this demographic and the wage inspiring the mcdonald's higher ticket sizes and the sales are things that are under pressure here i'm long the stock and i thought the stock traded very well today given this somewhat sober outlook in the fall and
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same-store sales, but i'm not encouraged that suddenly demand has to come roaring back >> guy >> you know i love a good cheeseburger i jones those -- a few times a year >> more like a quarter pounder, though, no as opposed to a cheeseburger >> i'll add the quarter pounder for cheese, as they say. if you go back, the all-time high was last summer, 221 and you have to figure out where to take profits and we crater down to 193 by the fall i think if the stock were to trade up to 193 you take profits and you look to fight another day. that's how i would trade it here >> i'm glad you refrained because this is a family show. >> s and g, and it's a family show >> options traders are betting the stock could be in for a sizzling rally when the results cross the wire mike khouw has the options action hi, mike >> hi, melissa
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shake shack earned quite a lot over the last eight quarters and this is a stock that's moved double digits and the market is expecting similar moves when they report next week and the options market is implying a move of 12.5% higher or lower by the end of next week people who are looking at the oc options today might have noted that some of that was adjusting already open positions and where we saw most of the opening activity was actually the regular way, may 56 calls over 1400 of those ended up trading by the end of the day and those were trading at just under $4 and buyers of those calls will rally through the strike by the four bucks they paid that will put them up, two weeks from tomorrow. obviously, the stock is well off of its highs and it has bounced substantially off its lows and they're speculating that it might make a move and getting options at a reasonably fair price if you compare it to how it has moved historically.
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give people back their god damn freedom. that was tesla ceo elon musk in the company's conference call last night and this is one of the tragedies of not having the conference go on during the show, guys we were talking about tesla earnings and we don't get to hear this stuff until way afterwards what did you make of it and do you think that we care anymore about elon musk's sort of off-the-cuff comments when the stock is doing so well >> yes i'll answer that part first. i think the markets sort of become desensitized to a lot of things that he says. a year and a half, two years ago, i think that's market moving and i think people have learned to deal with him and understand what he's saying. listen he's absolutely entitled to his opinion. maybe i've been sleeping under a rock i didn't realize people were getting arrested for leaving their home, but there comes a time every once in a while when you have to put the greater good
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ahead of personal interest, if by my staying home will save someone else's life, i'll stay home at some point we'll share a scotch and we'll talk it over, until then, i don't think you trade the stock now on the back of elon musk's comments or tweets >> you and elon are going to be sharing a scotch >> maybe >> i'd like to see that. karen, if you were sitting on that board would you just be smacking your forehead when he makes that comment yes, but how many times have you smacked your forehead, right before you realize i'm an idiot for being surprised every time this happens someone like larry ellison is very comfortable with that behavior and outspoken look at where the stock is that's a different argument and there was a different argument back and forth with david einhorn.
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we talked about him self-insuring the board and that was bizarre also >> that happened a couple of days ago >> dan, what do you make of the stock move and can you get onboard? >> listen, i'm perplexed by it and listen, he's got disciples and they get emboldened by that commentary and the stock makes no sense when you see the value of gm and ford absolutely cratering. to me, i've been wrong on this for hundreds of points here and i'm not going to get to change my tune and the while thing is a farce and one of the dumbest things i've seen how's that >> that's dan. another check on big movers in the after hours. we will be right back.
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a couple of biotech stocks to watch in the after-hours session. amgen coming in with a beat on the top and the bottom lines and it is reaffirming its 2020 guidance and take a look at shares of gilead in the news for its antiviral treatment, potential treatment for coronavirus and that is down 1.4% and also a beat on the top and bottom lines and they do feel some impact from covid on their hiv as well as hepatitis
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franchises guy adami for ibb or either of these stocks, where would you go >> love amgen. what concerns me is if you look at the 245 level was in december of 2019 and then obviously recently we traded up there. so it concerns me that we're sort of stalling here. i'd rather buy it on a breakout above 245 if you're not in it and gilead has never been an earnings story to me and that's never been a pivot level you stay long. >> tim seymour, take a look at roach back during the -- for tamiflu, i think it was $3 billion if the first year that it was released and then it was only 600 million plus in the years afterwards so they looked at this potential treatment and said this might want be the big moneymaker for gilead and at the same time we're seeing potential declines in the hiv and hepatitis franchises which are
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its core franchises. >> and this has been -- hiv headwinds and hcv, diminishing returns, those pipelines are not growing and they're falling and they even said gilead today that remdesivir, they're going to give it at cost and they're going to be very generous, this and that and they don't know when they'll be repaid for it. the surge here for the company that's been so important to the market is not necessarily intrinsic value you should be putting on the stock right now i agree. >> you know what goes away with the coronavirus pandemic, dan? regulatory headwinds who is going to say to these guys, hey, you're pricing too much when they're the ones coming up with the tests with the vaccines with the treatments >> yeah. i think there are some optics to that, too, mel, but i would say from the regulatory front there will be good opportunities for m and a and that's where gilead can flex their balance sheet a little bit i'm kind of with guy here and i
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don't think you'd be a seller with gilead and you'd buy it in the mid to late 70s. >> by the way, the gilead ceo daniel od daniel'o' day will be on that's my favorite stephen bishop song. i encourage you and i'm sorry for the flack you took from dr. j. as opposed to alan iverson. >> i defend my choice. tim seymour? >> stephen bishop, i think with the cameo in animal house, by the way. and you don't need ibb and biotech. how about go with big cap pharma and merck trading at a discount to peers and a much more consistent return profile. >> karen finerman. >> united rentals reported today. i thought the quarter was good it's difficult to see how the next few quarters will go, but what they do have is leverage to pull in terms of cash flow and
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decreasing capex i thought they did a good job and the holy grail for them would be an infrastructure build which maybe that happens. >> dan nathan. >> twitter down on earnings and you reload at 25 and it will get there soon >> "mad money" starts right now. gretch my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me
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