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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  May 1, 2020 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT

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april 8.6 million vehicles, that's down 48% compared to april of last year, when it was 16.5 million guys, i don't think during the great recession, financial crisis, back in '08, i don't think it got below 9 million we're checking to see the last time it was as low as it was in april. >> we're out of time on "closing bell" have a great weekend melissa lee over to you. >> "fast money" starts now, coming up on fast, the big battle over the banks, the chart master says it's time to sell. that's not what you heard on this very show, just 24 hours ago. who is getting is right. we'll detectitake that. what elon musk tweeted that sent shares skidding. and big coin is about to break out. how he is positioning himself for the crypto comeback. we start with today's market selloff, wall street wiping out
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its gains for the week as tariff tanks stock. say that 20 times fast having its worst day in months, this is the chart that had us all scratching our collective heads, bonds barely budged so bk, we go to you, what is behind, do you think, this market conundrum. >> it's a little strange, you would think with the fed buying, they reduced their buying, the market, the dow down 600, not much inflation out there, you would think that bonds would be absolutely flying and they're not. what do we know? we know that treasury bonds are owned by a lot of sovereign states you look at something like saudi arabia, japan, china, perhaps they need capital, a lot, you know, has to do with the oil decline. perhaps it's investors getting a built spooked that the u.s. has to raise an awful lot of debt and the only buyer out there is going to be the federal reserve, but it's really strange. it was the one thing that stuck out to me today because i wanted to buy bonds
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i thought with yields at negative, u.s. bonds probably close to 0%, yet they didn't noouf. >> -- move. >> we have this other dynamic, additional tariffs on china that the trade war, those sort of frictions between the u.s. and china will intensify because of what trump believes is the connection between coronavirus and china. do you think that played into this at all? >> 100%. without question, i think that was a big reason we saw the market sort of wane yesterday and i think that had a lot to do with today, along with lot of other things i agree with everything brian said here's the one pushback, and i want to give credit to sara eisen. i noticed this as well you're seeing the beginnings of, and i don't want to get ahead of myself here, but the beginnings of food inflation, which is something that really should concern a lot of people out there. so although, you know, the fed is quick to say that inflation
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is a concern, i would be impqui to say it would be a concern if it measured correctly, number one, and the rise in food prices over the last couple of weeks is something we absolutely should be watching in the context of the market and what it means >> i totally get that, and in the context of the consumer, food inflation is being felt sharply at the same time from a fed perspective, tim, i mean, food inflation, isn't this sort of a transitory thing because of supply chain disruptions do you put that aside, and say this is a temporary blip of food inflation? >> yeah, look, the feds measure of inflation is something that baffles me, frankly, but it's usually stripping out food and energy, as part of it, and just to speak to more about why bonds are pinned here, i think some of this also has to do with all the credit issuance, and if you're a buyer of ten-year issuance of which we had record numbers come out in the last two weeks
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certainly in the high grade, you're going to be selling the underlying treasury against buying the spread product, so i think that has something to do with actually putting some upward pressure on bond yields against what might be otherwise really an environment that should have people wanting the risk on trade. i think looking at the long end of the treasury curve right now, and trying to find fundamentals is very very difficult you could also make an argument that the minute we start to see any kind of follow through, that the market at least on the equity side has started to look rightly or wrongly in the last month, certainly bought to the fact that the fed and the government have thrown so much at this equity market, that the minute you start to see any follow through on the economy, you could see bond yields move i don't know why you would be chasing bond yields a whole lot lower here, despite the fact that i don't think we're ina great environment for the economy. >> your take on the selloff?
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>> i think we're having trouble with his audio, obviously. but guys, i go back to you, i mean, in terms of the markets pricing in, what they're hoping for in the future, we got a headline this afternoon that gilead remdesivir has gone emergency fda authorization and the first viles of this drug will be delivered to hospitals as soon as monday according to the vice president. at the same time, we have this chart tweeted by dr. scott gottlieb, the former fda commissioner saying if you strip out the hospitalizations in the new york area and take a look at hospitalizations nationwide over the past month, they have actually been rising, which tells us that perhaps we as a nation have not seen the worst when it comes to the impact of this virus >> and obviously that's not the case, and everything, you know, on that front is an obvious thing to say but with that said, you know, remdesivir isn't a
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vaccine. it's a treatment, right, i mean, so there's a lot of things to be optimistic about, and again, i'm not a physician. i'm not a virologist, i can't even say it, but, you know, again, i think if that's the only thing that the market was relying on, then okay, maybe there's some up side i think there's so many other things at work here, not least of which some of the things tim talked about with negative rates. i think the rhetoric with the united states and potentially china is only in my opinion going to intensify, so you know, we might be solving one health problem. i hope we obviously do, but we might be walking into another one entirely >> i see heads nodding and by the way, grasso will join us when we get his shot back up brian kelly, do you think we're in for a rough ride when it comes to markets even if we think we are past the worst of the virus impact, china is a whole other dimension that we haven't factored instead.
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>> right, let's also remember, what we started with here was twin crises, we had an oil price war that morphed into an economic crisis. now, if you ladle on top of that, carrots and the potential for hostilities, whether they be financial hostilities or something worse, that's not really a great environment for stocks so unfortunately i'm not that bullish, the market off today, you don't need tariffs in this environment you do not need them i understand you need someone to blame for what's going on but i don't think this is the right way to go about it, at least when it comes in terms of the market this is not a very good economically sound move. >> we got grasso back, your take on the selloff >> so if you look at the historic april that we did have, you know, everyone has that old jargon about may but what happens if you buy in may and you stay that would upset the most amount
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of people at any given time, and that's usually what the market does it upsets the most at any one time, so although i don't think that you could sell off the market, maybe in the next two weeks or so, i think you're going to get your chance when the market, when the economy starts up, doesn't start up as quick as everyone would like it to start up, but i think you're going to have a tough time selling this market off until the economy gets back to work and fails. >> all right moving on here, the financials, one of the sectors falling hard in today's selloff, and the chart master says it's time to bail on the banks, let's get to carter with more on this hey, carter. >> how are you there's so many problems i've got three charts. before we get to it, down 28% of the sector, financials versus the market 12 year to date the real problem is if you sell off during the selloff more, which is what it did, right, the financials dropped 35%, 42%
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versus the 35, but you should get a better rebound if you look at materials, industrials, energy, they rebounded and have much more on the market you should have gotten that from financials, you did not. in any event, that is one of the problems three charts, the first is a long-term chart, and the real tragedy, of course, is that the s&p 500 sector, in its totality, never could get above its 2007 peak, and you can see that clearly. it's a well defined break in trend and a perfect double top now what's also at issue is relative performance the second chart is the same it's a two-panel chart and you can see it, again, the financial sector on top, but it's the relative performance of the s&p. we are right now flirting with for the entire sector, reaching the '09 relative low we know banks themselves, regional and large which undercut the '09 the sector has big names like cme and berkshire, but what i
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think is about to happen is that this will make a new low, and that's a new problem finally look at xl, the vehicle you can trade, well defined minor tops there at the 24 level, a failure, pretty dramatic one, precisely at that level. we're down in the last three days, 7 1/2% from peak to the low of today, again, more than the market so you have this unhappy circumstance of going down more than the market during the plunge, 44 versus 35 not balancing more than the market, and now again going down more than the market when the market goes down that is not a good set up. >> carter, thanks, we'll see you on oa in just a few minutes. chart master says sell the banks. if you caught yesterday's show, you'll remember bank of america's savita says banks are an all time buy. >> great, this is a sector probably going to recover faster than others in an up turn.
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it's also priced relatively conservatively it still looks relatively cheap versus other areas of the market and then when you think about quality, it's got quality, it's got income potential, and then the kicker and the reason i'm bringing it up on fast money from a trading perspective is that it is deeply under weighed by investors. >> so who do you think is getting it right, tim? >> well, carter's long-term charts are hard to argue with in terms of how financials have performed over a long period of time but i would also say financials over the last three weeks have massively outperformed the s&p 500, while the balance hand exceeded the s&p on the way up, it has as we start to get insight in the balance sheets and earnings season. savit a,'s point is market positioning and where things are positioned something is not right here. we have said this. karen says this. i have said this if you look at banks relative to the market, one is not consistent with the other.
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i actually think banks have more room to close on the market, in other words, i would be a buyer of banks relative to the market in the environment we have today. i think we're all talking about macro that's not great, but sector wise, i can own banks here. >> steve, what do you say? who's right? >> i think carter is right if you look at these charts, it's undeniable, the double triple tops, this is where the 07 and 18 and 19 and if you look at them now, they look like they can drop on an xls basis another 15% lower from here, and those are all your large money center bank. i would go with the investment managers if you want to be exposed to financials with a black rock versus going with the money center bank. it doesn't look very hopeful in the near term. >> guys. >> do you remember in the running man when richard dawson asked woman in the crowd to pick her favorite stalker and she couldn't do it she was having such trouble doing it because she liked them all. >> is that a movie or something?
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>> yeah. >> maybe you should google it or get on netflix excellent movie with arnold schwarzenegger, i tend to favor savita here, only because i think banks aren't going to be the problem this time. i get what cbw is saying and i love carter's work, jp morgan, given where it's trading now, i think it's valued here i'm with savita from yesterday. >> bk, your thoughts. >> you sell these banks, when you're done with that, you sell them again >> i wonder what you really feel. coming up, a tesla take down, the five words that elon musk tweeted today that sank the stock and raised a l ootf eyebrows and why bk says the count down is on to what could be another bitcoin breakout. what he is watching when "fast money" returns and you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated.
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welcome back to "fast money," elon musk tweeting today tesla stock price is too high. i am o in my opinion, in that tweet, sank the stock and raised a lot of eye bros. let's get to phil with the fallout. you have to remember if the eyebrows at the s.e.c. are raised rigtd now. >> we reached out to them. they declined to comment they rarely comment immediately after something like this happens. let's take look at the tweet, when it was sent out around 11:00 a.m., somewhere around there, shortly after that, the stock tank tesla stock price is too high, i mo, in my opinion, and that made people say, well, how much market cap have you wiped out.
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wiped out about $13 billion worth of market capitalization tesla itself is not commenting on the tweet from elon musk. so there are a lot of people earlier in the day, melissa, who were saying, well, clearly his twitter account was hacked look, if it was hacked, we would have heard about it from elon musk and tesla by the way, musk and the s.e.c., remember back in 2018 they reached a settlement regarding his tweets, any financial communications they are supposed to be approved by a committee at tesla, but there's broad interpretation there in terms of what the financial communication and what he can or cannot say so guys, again, i think everybody is looking at this and they're saying why did he say this and we still have no answers. >> i think if there's any question as to whether or not this is a financial communication, i think you're nuts, right. he's saying that the stock is priced too high at that point, i mean, putting aside all the tweets that he sent surrounding this tweet and after this tweet
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about selling all of his possessions. >> there's a smooth end. star spangled ban ner was in there. >> he can say all of that that has no impact. if i'm a shareholder, i don't care if you're going to say my stock that i own is too high, that's harm to the shareholders, that's specifically what s.e.c. had issue with the first time around when they had a settlement with him. >> and that's why they were supposed to set up this committee that is in place that is supposed to be the one that signs off on any of his financial communications so more questions than answers, which is not surprising when it comes to what elon musk is tweeting out >> you got to leave it to elon phil, thank you. >> you bet. >> phil lebeau in chicago. specifically this is what the s.e.c. said in their press release. the resolution is intended to prevent further market destruction to shareholders. that's according to the s.e.c. release september 29, 2018, harm to shareholders would seem to me to be down 10% on the back of a
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tweet. bk, what do you say? >> yeah, i think cabin fever seems to be getting to elon musk i don't understand the up side here the s.e.c. is generally trying to prevent people from pumping up their stock i don't know, maybe he's being antagonistic, but there's no up side to this, and i think it does call into a little bit of question what's going on with him. and yeah, i wouldn't be a buyer at tesla >> guy, what would you say >> i'd say, i mean, other than the obvious, i didn't know he lived in gene wilder's how, and it got me thinking about my favorite gene wilder movie, which is clearly "young frankenstein," what was yours? >> willie wonka. >> no question it's up there we could run the whole thing if you want, we could finish the show with this with that said, the board of directors, you have to silt man down and give a cease and desist his twitter account, just on the back of what elon musk is
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putting out there, it's priceless stuff, and then on monday if he says you know what it was too high on friday, what happens then i really just don't get it clearly i don't get it >> steve grasso. >> yeah, i think bk brings up a really important point on this that the s.e.c. is usually involved or gets concerned when somebody pumps up their stock. so i don't know if they do anything in this scenario, but as phil said, he lost $13 billion the last time he got fined he got 40 million from the s.e.c. i don't think he cares but to make it tradeable, support in the stock is around the 650 level, and resistance is 767 that's the last place where they raised money it's a trading vehicle right now. >> it is ironic that the s.e.c. would get in if somebody's pumping up the stock, but that's actually causing harm and loss to shareholders, they may not even step in that's an aside.
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coming up, a crypto comeback, why a break is on the horizon. and canopy growth, what's got this pot stock popping stay with us every financial plan needs a cfp® professional --
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confident financial plans, calming financial plans, complete financial plans. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. find yours at letsmakeaplan.org.
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welcome back to "fast money," shares of canopy growth, constellation brands is upping its stake to 38% tim, what do you think >> well, bill newland at constellation pointed out, something along the lines the long-term opportunity here is outstanding and it's exciting and this is something that they jumped in early. they actually, the intrinsic value in these was very much in the money for the companies. it was a smart financial move. the endorsement is clear you have seen this even in the last six to nine months as essentially constellation is running the company outright, brought in their own people, david klein, the former cfo is running canopy growth, the investment further prepares them to be more positioned in the biggest cannabis market in the world. so i'm not surprised by this there are many people that think despite some of the write downs in the assets, the sector has been under pressure.
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valuations never made sense. this is one of the most sophisticated companies in the world saying we want to be in a very clear cpg industry, and that should be very strong endorsement for all investors. >> steve grasso your thoughts? >> yeah, i think you have to look the other one that has a high profile partner in a jv, not a jv, an actual real partner is cronos. the whole space has been under pressure we had negative pressure involving a class action lawsuit. this whole segment is out on the risk curve and it's been hit with head winds. what i think this could be some of the sign of light and this is a segment of the economy and sector that should have a bunch of tail winds behind it and now is the time to be buying cannabis. >> let's switch gears here check out bitcoin, our own crypto baller says a break out
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could be coming. bk, how many days? >> it's about eleven days to e halving, what that means, what people should know, bitcoin is about to be quantitative hardening. they're going to cut the daily supply the software is going to cut the daily supply it doesn't mean the price of bitcoin is being cut in half it just means the daily supply is being cut in half you might want to think about it like oil, all of a sudden in seven days, half the oil rigs are turned off therefore it gets the supply reduced. until the past, it has been a callus for very very big run ups. we have had a tremendous run up coming into this got some wood to chop around 9,000. in the medium to long-term, you have an asset that's going to be more scarce, and in an environment where the entire world is printing money. >> why is this a sell the news event? >> it very well hay be if you look back at the last two, we have had quite a run up. you look back at the last two,
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it took about 30 to 60 days for this to filter through the market you could have after this, remember, this is how the minors make their money, with bitcoin rewards. some may have to sell out. 30 to 60 days, we could see a nice run up again. >> okay. time for the final trade wow. that went fast, right, tim, what do you say >> right big discussion on banks tonight, and i do think jp morgan is cheap relative to itself and certainly the market here. i don't think banks are the center of the storm even if there is some market volatility ahead. i like jp morgan bk. >> you know for me ifs it's not bitcoin, it's that shoin gdx. >> steve >> apple was under pressure but turned green by one point today. you could wait for the 50-day moving average but apple. >> what was that movie you told me to watch?
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>> you should watch "young frankenstein" and "blazing saddles" and right into "willie wonka," it could be a gene wilder weekend, i'm just saying. >> final trade >> take a look at the way agn has traded since bottoming out with the rest of the market. agn earnings looking forward to oa in a few minutes. >> that's right, don't go anywhere "oa" is up next.
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happy friday, everybody. i'm melissa lee. time for "options action," we've got a big show ahead here's what's on deck. >> first up. >> look at that, pay pal and everything. >> and so do we. carter worth takes a look at how you can cash in too. then. >> really, video games >> yes tony zang has been playing around with trades in the space, he'll show you and finally. >> ♪ it's gold it'

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