i think time unfortunately will have to tell the good news, though, miami is increasingly home to a lot of people who typically wouldn't be here now who would be using those airplanes to get to other places the entire state just announced yesterday it's about $750 million or more in the whole in terms of where it should be relative to sales taxes. so this is going to be a climb out that won't happen overnight. >> thank you for joining us. we appreciate your time. good luck on the reopening wouldn't we all like to be quarantined in miami right now >> exactly sara, thanks walk to "squawk alley", everybody, on this tuesday morning. i'm carl quintanilla session high here up 377 on the

dow. stocks are having a nice bounce on some renewed optimistic about reopening the economy in various states of the nasdaq closing in on going flat for the year oil is up on signs of gas repairing. a general believe in a third quarter rebound has some exists warning too much optimism too early. for that we will turn to steve lease man. >> carl, good morning. the rapid update does indeed show this historic, unprecedented second quarter decline. a third quarter rebound. and i want to talk about that. the third quarter rebound is even more ingrained. stocks trade on this idea after we get through the second quarter, you will have a third quarter rebound. down 34% after minus 6%. up 16% in the third. up 12% in the fourth 7% in the first quarter. not enough to make up for the

year where the average of our 11 economists is 5% decline but take a look now at a bunch of outliars. they are contrarians on the street on this third quarter rebound. the q3 rebound bears bank of america, minus 1%. rsm up just 1.5% oxford, middling there at 7.6% and the relative to the average. so i called up some of these folks and said, hey, why are you such an utlier michelle said this is such a painful and shocking recession there will be residual pain. i don't expect business to start reinvesting right away it comes with capital spending coming back in structures. will people build hotels, oil wells? the big rebound in capital is something worth thinking about and joe has a different idea why the third quarter rebound may not happen he said based on what i've seen

and i'm hearing, we are at risk of another mini wave and households will continue to self-police. this is what we talked about yesterday. if you open it, will they come we have not seen evidence yet that in the open states people have come back in droves some of the traffic data i saw at rush hour has not really shown much of a rebound. so two things on the contrarian side one is this idea of do animal spirits really return in gang busters to power that rebound in the third quarter. and the second idea is is it too much too soon on the reopening such that we risk a rebound. markets trading on the conventional wisdom. not saying that's wrong. they are the contrarians called to consider >> steve, a tightrope act, as fauci said it will depend on how much death the society is going to be willing to tolerate.

steve, thanks so much. the largest teachers retirement fund in the nation and 11th largest pension fund in the world. chris, always good to talk to you. how have you been? >> okay, david how are you? >> it's okay it's carl this time. sorry. >> you have been defensive historically, even when the markets were soaring and it does sound like even at this level you are more in line with with what warren buffett said on the bullish stance >> sorry, carl yes, i am. this is nice to see. the bull market is over. and we are in a bear market. and i think we're in a trading range. it's nice to see some of the other stocks do better today it has been highly concentrated. we are far from out of the woods on this one. >> there's been a -- goldman

took a crack at the concentration you're talking about of the tech giants and how much they account for the s&p highest level in 30 years. their point is those types always resolve the same way. their argument is they are unable in the long term to provide the earnings power to maintain positive sentiment for the index overall. do you think we will retrench because of that? >> you know, carl, i do. they did some homework they represent 20% of the s&p. over 17% of the u.s. stock market as is pointed out, historically that is not a good concentration. they usually decline down. these are the stay at home stocks they are priced to perfection. the next step is to move out and

for people to be out in society. 23409 that the stocks are going to crumble but they need to fade away we need to see the rest of the market have strength we will be in a trading range probably for easily a good nine months i don't think we will see the return of a bull market any time soon >> good morning good morning it's john fort you expect us to be trading in a wide range into the november election it certainly doesn't sound like you expect it to be higher from here do you expect major averages to go lower than they did in march? and if you think that's possible, how do you weight that possibility? >> i don't going back to the march 23 lows, i think we will be in a range probably 2950 on the high side of the s&p we are close to that we hit it last week. maybe 2400 on the low side

even though we are opening up the economy, you are talking about people picking up, restaurants being 50% of capacity i know i don't enjoy wearing a mask walking around outside or going to the store and into work all day. it is not going to be something will be comfortable with my staff would rather stay at home they don't mind driving up and picking up merchandise but they are not eager to go shopping in this kind of environment. so we still have a long way to go, especially if we have a resurgence in the fall people are going to want to shelter in place on their own even if they're not ordered to i listened to scott last night i got worried. the impacts are serious. and i think we're going to see

some downward pressure on this market the optimistic is great. we will see downward pressure in the fall with all the uncertainty. >> at the same time it seems like a growing disconnect between the health outcomes and data we are seeing and the economic moves we are seeing at the same time. even though deaths continue to rise, there is economic opening up should inventors be watching the health outcomes or watching the economic moves it seems for better or worse, and we don't know which yet, certain areas of the country seem to be willing to risk the health outcomes in order to drive the economic ones. >> i have been talking to my board this week. that is the question i'm getting from them. it looks like this is divorced from reality there is such a strong bid to this market, particularly overnight trading in the futures overseas it doesn't make any sense to me.

so, yes, i'm going to say i agree with warren buffett. i agree with the sraoepb kwrous. there is big risk. it seems surprising there is such a small bid into this market and we are trading up in the higher part of the range you're right, the reality is this is still a serious virus. we are opening up the number of deaths, number of infections are really plateauing. not declining. everybody is so excited we bent the curve. we haven't seen it slim down on the down side. it has just maintained and i fear by opening back up, we're going to have more cases it is so contagious and sticks to different areas this is a health recession not a financial recession. and we're not out of the health data we have to understand what is going to happen in the markets and prices should reflect that uncertainty.

>> at the end of march, calstrs 4.7% 43.2% of equity versus 51% target have you been putting any of that cash to work right now, or is it sitting on the sidelines >> we still have a large cash position in a bear market, cash is important. cash is king we have been slowly getting a little offensive we think this recession is longer than what people are expecting. we are still being fairly defensive in asset allocation. we will end up shifting that because of the private market assets real estate is still strong. we're not seeing investment

opportunities appear as much people are stretched on the debt side and in this crisis it seems like that is the best opportunities there is a lot of money to go into that. helping companies bridge this recession in their cash flow i think will be the best opportunity for people >> yeah. given states and municipalities facing such severe financial carnage right now and all the discussion around that i realize you invest for the long time. how are you taking that into consideration? do you expect it to shape or change the way you think about investing going forward? >> i managed through the 01-02 financial crisis, 9/11 and through '08. it sounds strange but our asset allocation, our portfolio is

designed to go through these recessions we have had a long run without one. we will siebert investment on the other side of this we will see opportunities to have high double digit returns they need to am torize over a period local governments and state governments, when you have a two-month period with almost no retail sales, no hotel occupancy. they still need to make the minimum contribution to their plans. everybody wants to put them on as they are due today. that's not the case. we can amortize 30 years

think about your mortgage. you don't look at that as a due payment right now for all of it. you spread it out over time. you can refinance it eventually. for us, low interest rates will be a challenge we will weather this storm and we will continue to do well on the other side of a recession. hate to say it but recessions are good i was concerned the last two years along that bull market was running because it pore tended that the other side, the down side might be really negative. who knew we would have a global pandemic and that would cause a recession. but a bear market doesn't last three weeks like we saw in march. we have to run through this. we will see this sloppy opening that is hard on the economy and eventually on the market >> yeah. we remember those when we were in a different world we will learn a lot the next

couple of weeks whether or not they can be done safely or not we look forward to checking in with you soon. take care. >> thank you very much the ceo of el free we will be speaking to him after the break with the dow up 340. stay with us what do you look for when you trade? i want free access to research. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. mhm, yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. now offering zero commissions on online trades. we charge you less so you have more to invest. ♪

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aerospace l 3 harris rising up 2% after posting better than expected quarterly results joining us is the chairman and ceo. thank you for being with us today. >> good morning. that you can for having me >> so as you mentioned, a beat today. you did lower 2020 guidance due primarily to covid-19 impact on commercial aerospace at a time when there is so much focus on aviation and the downturn we are seeing within that industry now. what is factored into your forecast >> so let me start by thanking all the men and women at l3harris great start to the year with revenue up a%. operating income 17% good cash flow orders good. so it was a very good start to the year despite the environment we happened to be in you're right, we trimmed the

outlook for the year we were anticipating 5% to 7% growth now it is 3% to 5% that delta the exposure we have where we have taken our number down 40% in the year it is not a big part of the overall portfolio. it did reduce our forecast and our balance for the year >> yeah. of course defense, the majority of your business, has been so resilient. you are one of the top 10 defense contractors in the world. backlog that's been growing. maund your cash target as well what has that process of working with the d.o.d. looked like in the midst of this pandemic and i guess when lochhead martin is coming out and saying the longer it stretches on, the more risk to supply chain disruption. are you seeing the same thing? >> so, look, 75% of our business is tied to the department of defense. that business is up 8% this

year so it is strong. we have been working very, very closely with d.o.d. leaders, service leaders to do our best to try to accelerate contract awards something we are very well focused on many have exposure to commercial aerospace. we are working hard to support the small suppliers. some is coming from the department of defense. right now, you're right, it is vulnerable >> you said you were looking to shed as much as 10% of the portfolio. is that still the plan are there currently buyers in the market right now >> good question

we are about 10 minutes into the merger integration is going very well cost synergies are tracking well we are accelerating. it helped to offset some of what we are seeing in commercial aerospace. we have been looking the last 18 months we want to be in businesses where technology differentiates. we earn good returns we can grow. we can win we just closed on a transportation yesterday for a billion dollars selling airport securi security so one-third away from getting to 10% there's going to be some friction some will move to the right a little bit longer term, taking a hard look at our portfolio is the right thing to do even in this environment. >> you mentioned airport

security and automation business sold officially last night even though you have exited that business, i'm curious what you think air travel will look like from a securities standpoint >> it's a very good question i think it's going to change in some ways. maybe different ways of monitoring passengers as they come through checkpoints i know it's something we were looking very carefully at. there may be different ways of biometrics, temperature screenings >> hi, bill. good morning it's john fort i have noted that you expected to have around 50,000 employees as aoe a merged entity is that still the level where you are? where do you expect to be in the coming months as the year ends

are you hiring in certain areas? are you laying off in certain areas? >> thanks for the question we have 50,000 employees all working hard, mostly in the u.s. a terrific group of people large proportion of them are technologists, scientists, engineers. we're hiring we have hired 2500 year to date. we will hire 6,000 this year 800 new college grads and 700 summer interns so, yes, we are hiring we are growing and we are hiring >> wow that is definitely something to take note of as a defense contractor you are an essential business. amidst all the aid and stimulus packages, in d.c., this debate emerging about where future

budget cuts are going to happen. what is your longer term outlook for defense spending >> so this year is quite good. the budget is up 3% from last year the d.o.d. budget has come up quite a bit. going into '21, it is expected to be about flat that's the president's budget and grow 2% beyond that. that was a pre-covid forecast. together, by the president, next year will be okay. beyond that in 22 it will still be okay. $135 billion worth of unspent money, investment account money that will continue to drive growth in the space. beyond it, look, the threats of the world remain you can see what north korea is doing. the chinese, the russians. i do believe there is bipartisan

view >> thank you for joining us today. stock is up about 2% >> that you can very much. >> a check on the major averages all of them at or near session highs at this point on the dow that translates into a gain of about 364 points all the indexes up by better than 1.5%. we'll take a quick break stay with us

welcome back norwegian cruise lines said there is substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a growing concern. we have the details. >> john, norwegian cruise mine is in survival mode. it sees substantial doubt about its future as the covid-19 epidemic wreaks havoc on the cruise industry. they were able to get $400 million from el cateton. that is contingent on raising an additional $1 billion in capital. if it is able to do so, suntrust said it will survive on zero revenue for 20 months. a sharp decline suggests the market is growing concerned about norwegian's ability to get the liquid i did boost

norwegian is the most leaved, highest debt-to-equity ratio the question is whether that will challenge the pitch to investors and its ability to secure attractive terms. it is worth noting carnival, when it went into the debt mark it did raise money but at a high price. 11.5%. time is of the essence for norwegian to see if it can raise capital. you are looking at the stock down as much as 20% just today even onyear to date basis is significantly underperforming carnival and royal caribbean carl, back to you. and sue herrera the hq >> hello, everyone here's the latest. president trump leaving for his first out--of-state event in two months he was asked about china and its

role in the spread of the coronavirus. >> what happened should never, ever have happened china should have informed us if they had a problem i have not spoken to them. i might, but i haven't spoken to president xi i have not >> and the united kingdom has the highest death toll in europe 32,000 people have died, sur passing 29,000 recorded deaths in italy we'll be back in an hour with more for more on the coronavirus coverage, go to cnbc.com morgan, back to you. sue herrera, thank you as always, let's get a check on where we stand in today's trade. stocks are rallying. looking for a second day of gains. every sector is in the genre 2890 is your level there don't go anywhere. abouting in two. (bling)

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we work founder has filed a lawsuit against soft bank alleging abuse of power. we have been covering that since early this morning hey, d >> hey, carl that's right this is the first time that we are hearing adam newman's side of the story since he was ousted from we work in the complaint, it alleges soft bank, quote, doubled down on its abuse of power to undermine the agreement and argues its deteriorating position is the reason it backed out on its obligations it accuses him and others of using influence to pressure investors. this is a pretty dramatic turnaround from how adam neumann described his relationship less than a year and a half ago >> there is something about our relationship is how we communicate. if i if have something to change or need to talk about, we actually prefer face-to-face meetings it's a real partnership.

and the longer we know each other, the more we can build it. he is one of the most visionary investors in the world i'm pleased that he chose to invest in us >> soft bank had just backed on it of another deal with we work worth $20 billion. it ended up investing $3 billion in that round. so this isn't the first time we have seen tension between soft bank and adam neumann. we work's evaluation was $47 billion. now it is less than $5 billion and neumann, important here, is supposed to get $970 million as part of this wider bailout whether he ultimately gets it depends whether his lawyers can essentially prove soft bank sabotaged the agreement. it will be really interesting because we may get a view at

soft bank and the business dealings waoepg and gnashing of teeth is what this sounds like to me let's bring in editor of the verge. good to see you. how are you doing? >> doing great missed you guys. great to be back >> yeah. missed you, too. in this we work/softbank, it is hard to find anybody to feel bad for. soft bank encouraged neumann to take outsized risks. neaumann enriched himself. now he is crying abuse of power. what's your take >> the only people i feel bad for is us. eventually it will be over and we won't have anything to talk about any more it is fully a soap opera setting aside soft bank's

defense, neumann's case, the arguments he's making are my company failed i made a deal tindered on operating conditions, the consolidation of a company in china. the lawsuit is going away. and i handed operating kro will to soft bank then they made sure the conditions weren't met that is as brave as it gets in terms of going to court and say i trusted them and they screwed me when this soap opera clouds the entire case. look, i was not a great lawyer in my previous life. but to say i trusted them buff the contract let them do it is not usually a winning argument >> yeah. this reminds me of two other deals. darth vader and lando calrisian.

when conditions changed, sometimes the deal changes >> the motivation of the company is in deteriorating shape during the covid -- well, of course at this point to say we're a real estate company, i still want my billion dollars i was given as a gift to just go away is a remarkable position for adam neumann to be in, especially when he had another deal on the table. he had an option to go jpmorgan chase. softbank was more favorable because of the billion dollar bailout. they also extended him a $500 million line of credit in order to pay off his obligations he took the deal more favorable to him and then got screwed on

it you had another option maybe a little more direct and not up against who you know is an operator. i think the court will say what do you want? it is impossible to remove >> yeah. i wonder how much u of this is really softbank and we work specific or even commercial real estate specific versus indicative of the broader sentiment we are seeing in the private market right now i ask that in part because you have digital bank n 6 raised money. uber is in talks to lead fundings around for lime right now as well. we are talking about lower evaluations. how much is the pain and we works playing out and trickling out in other parts of the

market >> potentially real businesses companies that have business models they think they can support. lime is going through big changes, right they are cutting costs in various ways you can capture an enormous amount of the market you raise money, capture more of the market we work was not a well-run business it is impossible for the court to look at a founder who licensed the name of his company back to his company for millions of dollars and only when he got caught said this was a good business we should say this is actually chaos. i don't know how much it reflects the market. you have a founder and ceo is fully on it of control and a

company trying to rein him back in with a "titanic" clash of egos. >> before i let you go, i want to get your thoughts about tim bray he is amazon web services vice president who is resigning kind of in pro activity activity over the treatment of workers who protested the treatment of worksers under the covid-19 crisis also amazon's environment al record amazon, for its part, said people were fired for violating internal policies which is a difficult thing to independently check because, you know, it's employee records so how do we know, a, whether they did violate policies or other employees may have violated policies and didn't get fired? >> the interface newsletter

wrote what we learned from facebook it wasn't regulators that got them with fines they could pay. it wasn't consumers on the market that got facebook that made it change it was employee activism when they were unable to attract and retain the top talent, that's when the company felt the pressure they couldn't innovate, build. we are seeing it with amazon at the warehouse level. now we are going to see it tim ray is a well-known respected figure in software he is coming out and saying this, there is a generation of college students who will listen to him an entire generation of other developers inside amazon saying, man, that's just how i felt. i wasn't brave enough to say it out loud now i see it that term inside the company is some of the biggest force for change that amazon will feel >> in this economy, where are they going to go

tkpaolg? also employees are protesting similar things microsoft where some employees protested but microsoft taking a firm line on general policies. it seems labor has perhaps narrower options than several months ago as well >> i think all the big tech companies are facing their own version of unrest, coming up with their own employees if you're an amazon engineer, you are not hurting for options. i think it is a big point for amazon than anyone else. >> very smooth thanks for being with us carl >> all right we are getting our update from new york governor andrew cuomo take a listen.

>> the number of total hospitalizations is 9,600. that is a lower number than yesterday. barely it's basically flat. as i mentioned yesterday, the weekend reporting numbers tend to be a little erratic sometimes. we're not sure why this whole reporting mechanism has been in place a couple of months every hospital has reported every day to the state but it is better than going up total hospitalizations is down changing intubations is down that's good news and the number of new hospitalizations is also down. this is an important number. this is how many people came in yesterday with a diagnosis of covid into hospitals or people who were technically in a hospital who were then diagnosed

with covid again, sunday is a different day operationally for hospitals. but, again, the number is down so it is good news this is always the worst number going through the day. number of lives 230. technically up from yesterday, even allowing for the sunday reporting. it is painful, painful news. we will remember those families in our thoughts and prayers. >> that was governor cuomo going through the numbers. generally trending in the right direction. but the deaths number ticking up slightly while it has been trending down. we are going to take a quick commercial break with major indexes. session highs on the dow that

translates into up 412 points. stay with us (soft music)

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session high for stocks. s&p up 1.8%. with every sector in the green and crude oil rallying and treasury yields higher when we return, summer camps and covid. the director of one of the largest camps in the country jn nt.ex stay with us these days staying connected is more important than ever.

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babies keep you up at nielgt that's a space ex t-shirt he's wearing. also worth noting he seems to have listed his two l.a. area homes for sale on zillow as well >> it's for sale by owner. i guess you could negotiate directly with him. put in a bid for 420 >> how many people to you think will reach out just to do that just to talk to him.

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u.s. money reserve is one of the most dependable gold distributors in america. summer is around the corner and camps all over the country are looking at ways to reopen with significant changes due to the coronavirus. joining us now is jay jacobs, executive director at the timber lake family of camps good to have you this morning. >> thank you for having me >> you say you are planning to open camps on time sounds like there's a difference in day camps than overnight

camps. you have control over who stays and goes you have different precautions that you can take. tell me how you plan to manage each >> in sleep away camp, you can create a protective environment. you can test staff before you come to camp you the test your campers and only accept those with negative tests. you can manage the visitors coming into camp resident camps are located up in rural communities where the prevalence are not as great down in suburbs or the cities in day camp it's a different animal you have campers and staff coming in and going out on day by day basis

my keeping groups small, you can have an interior or in camp containment process going. you can manage campers on the bus and getting children to camp safely that way. each has its own challenges. >> i guess you also are probably going to have to alter the program for day camps more than you would in the resident camps because you have distancing issues, i imagine. you don't know where people have been when they weren't at camp so there are precautions you might have to take

how is the program going to change >> i think you hit the nail on the head first of all, when children are in the pools, chlorine is something that kills covid-19. i think pools are safer place. studies have shown, i've read a couple of studies recently and i guess they have to be verified and go through the peer analysis that says outdoors is much less of a chance of transmission. the more we keep children playing out doors in the sun, fresh air, you got a little better of a chance that said, you still have to segregate groups so you can contain a virus if there is an outbreak i think that occasionally you may to do testing and monitoring in camp. you have to advise parents that if children aren't feeling well

they should stay at home no matter what. you've got to be doing temperature checks on children and staff when they come into camp even though i think the study i saw said that only 42% of children with covid-19 actually had fevers. we're not looking to open camp today where the numbers you're seeing today we're hopeful if numbers we see coming down each and every day, a month from now, but even a month from now will be dramatically lower that will help just naturally contain the virus before it get to the doors of our camps. >> i think everybody is hoping for that sleep away camps is a costly

activity what do enrollment numbers look like >> numbers were strong coming into this. we have seen some numbers drop i think most parents are in way and see mode they are nervous some are nervous or others are biting the bit. it's not a zero sum game it's not about don't send your children to camp and then they will be safe it doesn't work like that. look at this past weekend. people go outdoors unless you're going to keep your children at home, locked up inside all summer long, they're going to go out. they're going to be in the neighborhood in communities that have a greater prevalence of the virus than at camp it's not -- it's a bit of a toss up at times and camps can make

the environment safer because we're going to supervise it and structure it that way than letting children out to the playgrounds or basketball courts or wherefo ever it may be that social distancing is not easy to establish. >> my first jobs were at a day camp and social distancing, very difficult. will you stop touching probably the most common fraphrase you h from kids. thank you and good luck. we hope that the problem is more manageable by the time you are looking to open the gates of your camp. >> thank you checking the markets they have been on -- hard to say a tear given how they have been running lately, carl, but the dow is up nearly 400 points. close to session highs the gains of the morning do seem to be holding for now.

>> yeah. disney is the big player tonight. we'll be listening for any kind of clues as to whether or not shanghai disney and disney world and disney land might start talking about reopening. that would be a huge sentiment change as we look at reopening the country. let's get to wapner and the half all right. thank you very much. our breaking news coverage of the markets continues. welcome to the halftime report our top story this hour, the tech heavy nasdaq. it's on tear attempting to go positive for the year. it's been an incredible run. we'll debate that with our investment committee good to have everybody with us today. let's begin by seeing where we stand. i'll take you righ t