china representatives talked over the phone, hopefully with interpreters safety in the skies. the change one airline is making amid the global pandemic it is friday, may 8, 2020. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning everybody welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we are watching u.s. equity futures. the dow was up by about .9% yesterday, a gain of just over 200 points this morning, it is indicated up over 300 points. probably in part because of that call between u.s. and china. snaz nasdaq up 108 and s&p up by 37 the jobs report estimated that

21.5 million people lost their jobs in april. oil prices have also been higher last check of wti saw it just above $24. that's a began of about $3 that link between oil and stock market futures has been strong too. >> it has been very, very strong it is interesting. it has been strong on the way up the question is was it strong on the way down it is interesting to think what has been driving what? >> it has been stuck here. it is up 11% the next morning it is 26 and then 23 again. at the end of the session, it seemed to go back. we've been holding at 24 24, 25 that seems to be enough. these futures are up 250 points

every morning. at the end of the day, we've given it back. we are up to 250 again are you kidding me, china, if we are being nice about trade, that's enough to send the markets up again we are back to that? >> at least it takes the threat off the table. if you start adding tariffs on, i wonder what happens. >> earlier this week, all of this harsh rhetoric. we talked about it yesterday, what about the second phase with china. are we no longer going to be able to do it because the two countries are so angry with each other. we are talking 16% to 17% unemployment it seems like maybe they were nice to each other in a phone call >> it is like, thank you, sir, may i take another

we talked about how the president was able to threaten tariffs because he had the benefit of a strong economy and market he doesn't not have the job market it makes you wonder how much more you could possibly bare >> the bad news is worse than it has ever been. that seems to be in the future how good did the talks go yesterday? did we even know that is enough? >> 200 points in the morning doesn't make me sit up and pay attention anymore. >> we talk about how in our own minds. >> 1,000 points would get my attention. 200 does not >> right >> right >> talking about a new world, we have a big morning here. the ceo of moderna will be joining us to discuss the fda

approval of the coronavirus vaccine candidate for the phase two study. ceo of uber will be with us to talk about the impact of his business and the outlook of earnings last night and joining us to share his thoughts on the economy and comments and he has ideas about what is about to happen next. we are then going to be counting down to the job's report to analyze what could be an historic month for job losses. expectations there, expected to be a decline for $21.5 million of non-farm payroll. at 16%, the highest rate since the great depression >> becky, i read your husband is

a -- i read this this morning. you will come in contact with someone about as different from you as it could get. strangely, there will be a mutual attraction but could be the start of a beautiful friendship isn't that weird, i read that and i thought of austin. >> you thought of austin >> i am sure austin is tingling. >> we haven't seen him in a while. we've been in lockdown the lunch hasn't happened. >> lunch didn't happen for years before the lockdown. you guys were never going to payoff on that >> he won't let me so he can keep dangling that u.s. and china trade negotiators are talking by phone. as i said at the open, hopefully

with interpreters. eunice yoon joins us live from beijing with the headlines good morning good afternoon for you, i guess. >> good morning, joe i think people are just happy that lines of communication are still open and people are within both administrations trying to keep the wheels on for the trade deal as you were talking about, this is lighthizer and mnuchin and china's vice premier hu. though spoke over the phone and agreed they'll work together to try to improve the atmosphere so that trade deal reached in january would be implemented they also said both countries intend to meet their obligations in a timely manner perhaps a way to improve the atmosphere, china announced it is going to scrap some investment quotas for foreign

investors. these are limits two institutions had been using and will simplify procedures and those new regulations go into effect on june 6 and effectively make it much easier for institutions like goldman sachs or bnb paribas to vest in stocks and bonds. pointing that trade deal is progressing and china has been buying u.s. soy and meat and has removed restrictions on some u.s. farm goods. finally, what i thought was interesting, this whole week, we've had a lot of reminders of the importance of the u.s. consumer to american companies we had another reminder today because for disney, the shanghai park shoeold tickets.

they sold out for the first day in three minutes and for the whole week in one hour shanghai disney was being discussed a lot. most people said they wanted to get tickets because they didn't want to have to wait a long time in lines people are excited to go to the park on monday >> wow, that is not what i would have expected. >> it reminds me of the nfl draft. it was like, i would never watch that the day it was happening, i was like, it's three hours until the nfl draft. we are ready for something to do >> we all need to be entertained. >> yeah, the background is that chinese people have been kup -- cooped up for a long time. also a lot of parents who have

had kids at home cooped up and not a lot to do. disney is limiting the capacity but even with those limitations, there are a lot of people who are interested they'll have to go through temperature checks and there will be social distancing at the park it is something people in china have been living with and there is still a lot of excitement about going on the rides and doing something different. >> the excitement is about the social distancing. can you imagine getting on those rides and not having to wait in line a long time the only time you wouldn't have to wait on super long lines. >> if you have to get on a plane or train, that might make you think a little bit as to whether or not you want to go this time around there is still plenty of people around shanghai who want to get into that park >> when does bordom, when does

that become strong enough? you have to feel better about the overall environment not beg as dangerous as it was at the peak of the pandemic i felt it a few times, i was like, ugh, you risk it it is still in the back of your mind it is worthwhile to go to disney and social distance and wear a mask but you still know it is riskier than the last time you went you are willing to do it because the boardom is more than the fear >> there is people wanting to

get back to some normalcy. people want that >> andrew, would you go now to a restaurant where they would have a third occupancy, waiters would be wearing masks, social distancing at the restaurant would you go now i've said i would like to do that by the end of may >> three weeks is a different story. not today. i might do it three weeks from now. >> i'm eating the take outfood already. >> i'm not >> it is already being prepared for us by someone who i'm not sure >> joe you have to get there. you have to open the door, sit on the seat, touch the tables. >> they are going to wipe that down >> people may breath on you.

>> so you are not going out until, you don't know, 18 months >> it depends where you do it. i'm in connecticut i might do it here because i think the risk is lower. but in new york city, even though the numbers are coming down, the total volume compared to other cities where numbers are min scho are miniscule. >> i'm going to a place where they have a third occupancy. >> outdoor dining >> at some point during this pandemic, if there is no vaccine, we need to focus on the vulnerable people and make sure that they are locked down as ever but the younger people, i think it is never going to be

absolutely perfect, i don't think. we are starting to see some of the effects whether drug use, alcohol use, suicide these are small examples people selling out tickets in three minutes to go do something. we have uber to talk about >> we do in corporate news, uber shares are actually higher. the company posted the biggest net loss in three quarters revenue topped expectations. ride bookings were lower eats food delivery was up 52%. we'll talk to the ceo live at 8:00 eastern time. you've been talking to him a while about this stuff we'll get his thoughts on uber eats people used to question that business before because it was expensive. now it looks like a superstar up 52%. al also roku shares lower this

morning. it expects ad sales to grow at a slower pace and reported higher cancellations as advertisers decided to save cash that stock down about 7% more to come on a special edition of this friday's "squawk box. everyone will be focused on this jobs number. getting ar getting ready for what might be the most important number tofhe year the jobs report we'll bring it to you after the break our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence... ...we can spend a bit now, knowing we're prepared for the future. surprise! we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. i'm good at my condo. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement. confident financial plans, calming financial plans,

complete financial plans. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. find yours at letsmakeaplan.org.

the april jobs report is due out in just over two hours expected to show the highest unemployment rate since the great depression chief u.s. economist hard to believe the market indicated up sharply just before two hours before we are anticipating before 2.5 million people lost their jobs in april. what is the market anticipating at this point. >> market is always moving on

surprises, right this has been a long time coming we've been looking for a scarey number since we saw the economy close down since march we saw it come and people could prepare as best they can. >> does anything come as a surprise in this number today? >> that would be difficult the expectations we have about what is going to happen is just a huge number and a lot of variability about what it could be it's a very uncertain and unprecedented time challenging to surprise the markets today. >> how long do you expect these job losses to last >> i agree with you. whatever the headline print is,

the unemployment rate jumps to, we'll be digging into the report to see what we can glean about how long these numbers may stay so bad for example, we are expecting this big jump to 16%, 20%. within those statistics, we can get a sense of how many of those unemployed are expecting to be called back to work within six months in march, a quarter of those unemployed expect to be called back within six months when you saw that happen, when the unemployment rate is dominated by the short-term unemployed, it tends to fall back fairly quickly. so evidence like that we can

clean from in the underlying data about how sustainable those numbers are going to be, that's what us economists will be most focused on >> that is a number we've talked about in all the years and not a number i've recalled seeing. is that a number we'll see instant aniously >> it is not a number we've gotten used to looking at but it is within the household survey data so the report that we get -- not the payroll numbers we tend to focus on but where the unemployment rate comes from they do break down unemployment. is it part time or full time, is it by duration of unemployment there is a lot of reasons. are you on temporarily layoff? employed but not working for other reasons?

these are insights we can gain within the household survey. we paid a lot of attention in march ahead of that kind of commentary >> so if a quarter of those people in march expected to come back, it would be good news if that number increased or bad news maybe if it dropped off a cliff? >> what would end up happening, rates would go up and that share, even if it is 25 -- the share is the same. a portion we have seen and you'll have an indication that they'll be called back keeping an eye on that it will give us insight into the

composition of the really high unemployment number. >> thank you i learned something from that. thank you for taking time with us this morning. coming up, bad news from the real estate world and what it could mean for the broader u.s. economy. first, some images of the pandemic impact yesterday from all across america when we come back

our members understand social distancing. being prepared and overcoming challenges. usaa has been standing with them for nearly a hundred years. and we'll be here to serve you for a hundred more. ♪

find a stock basedtech. on your interests and we'll be here to serve you for a hundred more. or what's trending. get real-time insights in your customized view of the market. it's smarter trading technology for smarter trading decisions. fidelity.

welcome back to "squawk box. new york city is the nation's largest real estate market the pandemic has caused a number of big deals to go bust. robert frank joins us now with today's executive edge

>> good morning, andrew. manhattan real estate market is basically frozen right now with a record low number of sales and contracts. only one deal in the past week for over $4 million. the last time that happened was february 2009. you had contracts signed before the lockdown being broken or renegotiated we had over 100 contracts canceled in early march. 67 contracts canceled in march and 43 in april. far more common are contracts that renegotiated. the average price cut to renegotiate a deal right now are between 10% to 15% that means the price cuts for new buyers going forward will be even birg. that means 15 or 20% more. the big problem right now is the

lack of showings or listings new listings down over 70% as sellers wait for the lockdown to ease showings to start again, which we can't really have now guys, back to you. >> robert, thank you very much any word on how long they think this is going to last? is this more permanent or temporary? >> there is no price discovery people are fleeing we have no price discovery. that's why looking at these deals are the only prices we have right now those are down 10 to 15 pus probably when things reopen. until we get price stability or

visibility, sellers won't list and buyers won't buy >> thank you when we come back, fed funds futures are trading like interest rates are going negative we'll tell investors what you need to know when "squawk box" comes right back these days, it's anything but business as usual. that's why working together is more important than ever. at&t is committed to keeping you connected. so you can keep your patients cared for. your customers served. your students inspired. and your employees closer than ever. our network is resilient. our people are strong. our job is to keep your business connected . it's what we've always done. it's what we'll always do.

good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc u.s. equity futures at this

hour just a little ways about two hours away from. big jobs number. it looks like the dow is going to open up higher. will get a bad jobs number but people looking into that oil moving higher. dow up about 300 points. the dow about 39 points higher and the nasdaq about 112 points higher >> thanks, we are going to continue along after initial jobless claims joining us now to talk bonds in the hopes of economic reopening. fixed income strategist and i'll talk to mike santoli a little about the stock market nice we are talking to china

it is nice hard to believe with the rancor we're seeing but it is about business it reminds me of g1. it is business, sonny. let's hope this doesn't mess up this trade thing that's it. isn't it >> i don't think alphabet is up a percent and a half the immediate moment four or five days in a row will pop up in the morning and try to find a way later in the day it is not just ship shape it is -- >> it is claberring. >> it is going up regardless where you set the camera

>> it is true. >> you point out that stock market, even though these job numbers keep hitting, the stock market has been going higher the bond market sees it as sort of a damper but the stock market is still -- the bond market doesn't just rip roar higher you think both markets are looking through this to when things can reopen? >> thanks, joe i think the only difference is that the bond market sees it slower as opposed to the equity market which will see it faster and sooner i don't think there are a whole lot of differences, just the time period. can you see that in the day to day trading. that low market has driven the bond that is lower than it was in

february in the preprice period. where i see it is that there is an upside yield move that will happen in the higher yield market and that will happen sooner. >> as a bond guy, you are partial. you believe the bonds are right. you point out you are not an epidemiologist you point out as we were talking about, people want to get cabin fever and want to get out too soon and that can have a bad outcome if people get out too early. you wonder about the markets that's not taking that into account? >> if i honestly speak to you, i don't know what makes the equity market -- >> you've never done that before you don't speak honestly to us

do what you normally do. let me be honest with you -- okay what do you mean >> what i'm saying, i think the bond market typically is looking for the next problem ahead while it sees the recovering and the opening as good things could see problems opening up too soon and people getting sick. that pricing going back and forth has gotten to another period for that reason, they are not quite sold that this reopening is going to go well and we are opening back up with some strains on the system. when you take 30 plus million people out of the labor -- >> looks like we lost kevin. mike, i was thinking about when you were talking about alphabet

and i was thinking about the nasdaq up for the year. we had blankfein on yesterday. we didn'tget to talk to him about how he said technology has really risen to a preeminent place in our lives could you imagine how we would be dealing with this without zoom or ordering on line think if this had hit 20 years ago, it would be totally different. i'm wondering because technology is so representative, i can't believe anything would be up for the year though. >> here is the thing it is not just that we've been using technology more. the businesses that dominate the nasdaq in technology are duopolys these massively dominant

businesses the bond versus the stock market you are going to see a cat here. she wants to be fed. is dominated by these businesses that look like bonds they look like indefinite maturity or long-term cash flows. nasdaq has outperformed the s&p by 40 points this year that's not the stock market saying the economy is going to be great in six months >> mike, i saw a video of a cat on another network but totally attacked a guy trying to do a hit. how old is that cat? what's the name? >> she's about five or six >> does she pretend she cares about you? if you call her, does she come >> she's pretty needy.

no it's on her terms, as usual. >> with the cats sorkin, you want to talk about the cat? >> i want to ask mike a different question i don't know if we'll get kevin back it relates to something he said. there is a whole group of people who think the market is overvalued and there will be reinfection rates and social distancing will make it more difficult and there is a much more bullish case. how much potential do you think for us joe is prepared to go to the restaurant and i may not be. how much is this due to the risk appetite the public may have i'm a relative risk aversed person, as you know. people in the country who have a greater appetite for risk. part of me wonders even come

this fall, if there is now reinfections, my thinking is turning a little bit to think that country may not go back inside again and may just decide they have to figure out some way to keep going irrespective of what the health professors might even be suggesting at that time. >> right the market has that among the range of possibilities coming off an extremely low base of activity and knowing it will increase week by week is almost enough to feed this sentiment on wall street. also, what i'm saying is if we are a person -- a trader that says i just think there is a chance the reopening goes clean or comes back strong, what is the soonest day of which you'll be proven wrong on that bet? it is not tomorrow it is probably weeks or months from now

there is a window you can believe whatever you want on the come back. i can't emphasize enough nobody is buying dying retailers. they are buying microsoft and alphabet >> can you worry about opening the door i haven't been thinking about that i get take out i haven't been thinking about opening the door i have gloves on and purel you can deal what is the cat's name >> her name is tula. >> you think when it is all over, we can have a play group with tulip and freddie and

gunther, my dogs >> might not be a good idea. >> cat's tail kept going like this behind mike i want to see that cat again i want to see that cat again when we come back, when you've got public clouds, making a big change. for you. but now, there's the dell technologies cloud, powered by vmware. a single hub for a consistent operating experience across all your clouds. that should clear things up.

confident financial plans, calming financial plans, complete financial plans. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. find yours at letsmakeaplan.org.

they're all possible with a cfp® professional. the best entertainment experience.s xfinity x1.

welcome back frontier airlines is the first u.s. carrier to require temperature checks for passengers and crewmembers before they board. starting june 1, everyone must be checked at the gate if your temperature is 100.4 or higher, you will have to be rechecked. if you still test high, they will rebuke you. arguably not within minutes or days, we'll see.

programming note this morning. join host tina fey on monday we are excited for this. a virtual benefit program, rise up new york to support the city and state hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic the telethon will air monday 7:00 p.m. eastern on cnbc. normally a huge gala in new york in person. this will be done virtually and we will be bringing it to you. joe? >> so that's been a year since robin hood unbelievable >> this is when it is every year >> okay. we'll do it this way this year hopefully we won't miss a beat in terms of funds raised coming up, ceo of allbirds doing business well be right back

al plans. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. find yours at letsmakeaplan.org. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. ever something's gone mogotten into the office.m, i hear you. feels like there's no barriers between departments now. servicenow. the smarter way to workflow.

welcome back food wear company allbirds has said it returned it is ppp small business loan. joining us to discuss is the

cofounder of allbirds and co-ceo good morning i don't have my -- i should have put my allbirds on this morning. it may be a controversial or hard decision. you took the ppp loan at the outset and decided to return it. why? >> there has been a lot of hard decisions throughout this crisis for us as i'm sure there has been for a lot of businesses when this thing started in the u.s., at least, and we've experienced some of it in china with our stores over there, retail got hit really hard you don't need to look any further than the current news of neiman marcus or j. crew big household names going out of business we were no exception for the first time since we launched in 2016, we were losing a ton of money it was a very uncomfortable

situation. we shut down our stores globally we have 18 retail stores across the globe. when we shut that down, we had to also shut down e commerce in parts of the world, australia and new zealand, we couldn't un high the pain on the business was pretty tough and so we really were looking at a whole bunch of scenarios, what to do. and the ppp offered a really interesting opportunity for small businesses we have 350, roughly, employees in the u.s., and it offered an opportunity for reprieve to allow us to keep our flock full as we like to call them. and so that was -- that part was pretty clear in the beginning. as things have happened, there's obviously been a lot of noise around the program and in the month since it really started,

you know, i think we found that we expected there to be the small businesses that needed the money could get it it now has become clear there's not enough yesterday the news became really clear. at that point we decided that given the situation, that there was probably a whole lot of other companies out there, not just companies but nonprofits, schools, my kids preschool who were unable to get loans and that we really felt an obligation to our community to return it and hopefully it finds its way into the hands of somebody that really needs it. >> what's going to be the impact of not havingit? meaning are you expecting to have to lay people off or furlough people as a result? >> yeah, so we made a commitment that at the outset of this we looked into our situation. we wouldn't do any layoffs through july 31st. that's a pretty big statement

given how high the uncertainty is if we had to go back on that, we wouldn't have given this money back we feel like at this point, a month has gone by, a lot has transpired, some of the uncertainty is there, we still are going to stand by our commitment we feel comfortable giving back this money and not changing our commitment and keeping everyone whole for pay and benefits through that period. >> so the loan -- i think this is the big issue with these loans, which is there's some people who need it, some people who sort of need it and would have felt more comfortable having it and others who maybe don't need it at all it sounds like you were a little bit in the middle category >> yeah. things have changed dynamically throughout this situation. i would say our need relative to others is hard to assess you know, i think what happened between the time we took it and when we returned it is that

there was a spirit in the law which we interpreted small businesses that were in dire need of money and we fit that category subsequently as you see some of these companies with thousands and thousands of employees, you know, dipping their hand into the honey pot, so to speak, and grabbing some funds, i think that has precluded people from -- smaller businesses to get access to that that's really been the trouble i think our need continues to be clear and is clear we're not going out of business tomorrow but i don't think that's the right lens to look at so we clearly are in the right bucket >> what's business like? you are direct to consumer business for a large part of the businesses ecommerce, are people buying sneakers right now >> well, you know, it's certainly tenuous. our stores are still closed. even as some of these regions

start to reopen, some are asking me to do curbside pickup we're not racing to open we still have a very large portion of our business shut down fortunately we came out with a running shoe recently and fortunately it's our first performance running shoe it was welcomed by the community really well. who would have known we would have worked on this for two years and at the moment we did, it's not to say that this is a great situation for anybody, but you find people with ten years having not gone out and taken a run and strapping on running shoes and getting on the trails. that has been welcomed with open arms by our customers and so that's been a really nice reprieve for us. we've had some other nice moments throughout this to kind of lift us up. it's still tenuous, but i would say things are trending in the right direction and some uncertainty is lifting >> when you say tenuous, are

sales off by 10%, off 50%, off 90%? what are we talking about? >> you know, it's a big, big percentage you know, i wouldn't want to share exactly how we're doing trending wise, but the basics are that we are off dramatically, particularly in a company looking to grow for a year -- >> does it feel like it's gettingbetter or worse right now? >> it's getting better it is getting better for sure. i would say -- i would say march and april were pretty dark times for the whole retail industry. we saw reports that were 40 to 50% down for the apparel indust industry things are starting to emerge. it depends by category we happen to sell products that people get comfort from, whether it's our slip-on shoe or our athletic shoe. we happen to be in a better

category than some others find themselves in. yeah we're expecting may to be quite a bit better. >> we appreciate you coming on this morning and being candid about this program and all the work you're doing. we wish you lots of luck as you know, i wear my allbirds proudly. >> thank you so much, andrew great to talk to you. >> you bet absolutely becky, over to you andrew, thanks when we come back, we're going to get you ready for today's jobs report. everything investors need to know plus, the ceo on moderna stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

the country bracing for what could be one of the worst monthly job reports in history what investors should know next. promise for a vaccine. moderna's ceo joins us on the news that sent shares soaring yesterday. plus, president trump mulling another delay for tax day. we have the details straight ahead as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome

back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin u.s. equity futures are sharp. higher again this morning, up almost 300 points as you can see on the dow the s&p indicated up 38. nasdaq indicated up over 100 as it is up now even more positively for the year 2020 yes, the nasdaq is actually up the big story of the morning is the april employment reportdue out in about 90 minutes. it's expected to show an historic spike in the unemployment rate. more severe and more sudden than anything that we've witnessed during the past two recessions economists say this is the worst since the depression there are more layoffs and furlough including disney, united airlines, gm, general electric, airbnb, lyft, uber

becky? we begin this hour though with the race for a vaccine. as we reported yesterday, the fda has approved moderna's coronavirus vaccine candidate for a phase two trial. that's something the company calls a crucial step in its time line joining us right now with more on this news is stephon bancel thank you for joining us >> good morning, becky. >> reporter: let's talk a little bit about the news from the fda. the stock jumped as it was reported that you would be going ahead with the phase two in this case you're using 600 healthy patients or healthy people, i should say, and injecting them with the virus. what does this mean for how that phase 2 works and what does this mean for the time line for when we might see a vaccine >> this is a phase two study 600 healthy volunteers to which we inject the vaccine. the time line should be pretty fast and our goal is to be able

to actually start a phase 3 study with thousands of healthy volunteers in the early summer >> where do you find these volunteers who's going to be doing this >> i mean, there's always a lot of volunteers for vaccine studies, but especially in the case of the coronavirus, as you can expect, we're getting a lot of requests and people want to help people want to restart the economy so there's a lot of people who are interested to participate. >> and are those people who are related to moderna are those people you find who are hospital workers i just wonder how that works when it came to the polio vaccine i think the doctor who invented it, his kids were some of the very first ones who were vaccinated, too, because he was so sure it was going to work. >> yes that was a different time. today that would be actually not legal to vaccinate people before approval that have a link to the

development. employees of a company cannot be vaccinated it's volunteers that do many clinical trials or in the case of studies like you have seen on tv for phase one is just people who want to help and register through clinical trial.gov and they are registered and they get screened there are several visits with the doctors, blood work to make sure that they're healthy and qualify for the study. >> so what does this mean for your time line i know that your next step was thinking that you would be phase 3 by the summer. when in the summer is that in june, july, august sort of situation? >> so it's early summer. still a bit too early to be more precise. previous time line, becky, was to start the phase 3 in the fall we were able through a lot of good work and cooperation to accelerate the time line drastically. as we get closer we will share

the data it should be weeks, not months to know the human phase one data, and that will be important not only for safety, which we anticipate to be similar to over nine vaccines that have been in the clinic, but especially antibodies can we find in those healthy subjects the antibodies that binds to the virus and neutralize the virus that will be very important. >> i know that this is a situation where emergency use authorization has been considered for this vaccine and for others which is why it's happening faster normally there's at least a year time line before you would see an approval for a vaccination just because they would want extended data to make sure that it's safe. what process would you kind of skip on that front what are the dangers by going faster obviously we need a vaccination more quickly so people can get back to work and feel good about it

>> yeah. so as you say, becky, the number one priority is safety because you give vaccine to healthy people you want to make sure the vaccine is safe. in such a situation of a pandemic where we have a lot of people that are sick and we are losing a lot of people as well as the eke come economic impact, speed is important how do you balance the safety and the speed? most probably for this product if it gets approved by the fda, you will expect that there will be a lot of following safety even after launch when there is the necessary approval. >> you know, beck, stephane, i know you know this back with the polio vaccine that you mentioned, becky, it was made in animal cell culture and we didn't even know how to test for sv 40 and it was contaminated with sv 40. that didn't hurt humans luckily.

it was an inactivated polio vaccine. i'm glad we don't have to do an inactivated coronavirus, stephane you have the technology to do one protein that's on the surface. have you done -- you saw the oxford vaccine worked in monkeys. rhesus monkeys will you test with that? are they close enough that oxford university should have a high degree of confidence that immunity will be the same in humans >> yes, that's a great question, joe. animal models in infectious disease are pretty important they're a pretty good predictor of what happens in humans. we're currently running several animal models with nid, the division of nih led by dr. fauci, and we hope soon, again, i'm talking weeks, not months, to be able to publish in a peer-review data

the truth is you can do a challenge model where you vaccinate the animal and give them a high dose of the virus. you can see in a placebo, can you prevent the disease? this will produce data faster. >> have you started manufacturing the most promising of your candidates yet would you do that near term? and how do you do -- how do you make millions of copies of that? is it p kc r or something >> we make messenger plants as much product as we can we announced last week where we are currently transferring the technology to the u.s. side in new hampshire. we plan to start making in july. we start planning as muce can.

as you say, it's in water. it's using enzyme so that allows us to replicate and to scale very quickly >> thank you stephane, there have been a lot of questions about how this vaccine would be distributed what do you know on this front about if you do have a successful vaccine, it's approved, you go ahead, who would get it first how would that be decided? >> yes, that's a great question, becky. what we anticipate is if you look at the few manufacturers that are both in the clinic already and that have scale for manufacturing, if you do the math, it's only a couple companies. we would all be supply constrained for quite some time, meaning we won't be able to make as many products as we are required to vaccinate everybody on the planet. so, for example, in the case of the u.s., we anticipate to work very closely with the government and with key medicalofficials to decide who gets the vaccine, you know, in the first batch

then when you have the next batch, shift to the government, how do we allocate it with health care workers, people at high risk in a different geography where you have more cases. >> is it fair to say that this has progressed at your best expectations to this point, better than your expectations? >> it has gone faster than my best case scenario back in january. when we started this on january 11th, partnering with a team of dr. fauci, we were hoping to get in the clinic in the summer. and as you can see, we are already have a green light from the fda to be in the spring in may in the clinic for phase 2, phase 2 was march 16th now we are saying early july we might be starting a phase 3 in early summer that is a time line that is beyond our wildest expectation it has been because of an incredible collaboration with the fda, with niid and people in

many companies working very closely together, working long days, working seven days a week now since january for three months >> stephane, i want to thank you for joining us today and for all the work that you're doing on this front this gives all of us a lot of hope and we all are wishing you the best of luck thank you for everything you're doing. >> thank you very much >> thank you by the way, programming note we will be gathering health care leaders at the center of the fight of coronavirus for an interactive virtual event. that's next tuesday, may 12th. stephane bancel will be there along with many others including the ceos of bristol-myers squibb, pfizer, merck's chief patent officer and you can request an invitation. coming up, with millions of people out of work, there will be a need to learn new skills perhaps to land a new job.

that's where gild comes in we're going to learn more about the company and discuss the jobs and the jobs front right after the break. becky, it's not the lollipop gild anyway, it's called gild first, let's get a check on futures. ahead of what is expected to be an historic jobs rort epbut not in a good way. "squawk box" will be right back. and set-up on all devices. and for those experiencing financial hardship due to this crisis, we'll work with you to keep your service up and running. hi! because at at&t, we're always committed to keeping you connected.

featuring the emmy award-winning voice remote. access to your favorite apps, including netflix, prime video, youtube and hulu. all without changing passwords and inputs. the most 4k content and movies and shows on any screen. the best entertainment experience all in one place. across america, business owners are figuring things out.

finding new ways to serve customers... connect employees... and work with partners. comcast business is right there with you. with a network that helps give you speed, reliability and security. and enough bandwidth to handle all your connected devices. voice solutions like remote call forwarding and readable voicemail. and safe, convenient installation. when every connection counts, you can count on us. get the connectivity your business needs. call today. comcast business.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning the trump administration considering another delay to the tax filing while tax day has already been pushed to july 15th, it could be extended to mid september or possibly even december becky, over to you >> andrew, thanks. in the meantime, 33 million americans have filed unemployment claims just in the last seven weeks and we are waiting for the big monthly non-farm pay rolls number this morning. let's take a look at what options are available for those who have lost their jobs because of this pandemic joining us is rachel carlson, the ceo of gild. gild has worked with walmart, chipotle and many other companies. they are announcing a new project today. thank you for being with us today. good to see you.

>> thanks for having me, becky >> i want to explain to people what gild is before we get into this new project you're doing. this company was founded back in 2015, and your goal is to find under skilled workers and try and help them on their way to make sure that they are better enabled to get better jobs along the way. it's a project that a lot of the names you know have invested in. stef curry ken chenault is the one who told me about you how many more people are we talking about? >> sure. we started gild to help the 88 million americans who we know need the opportunity to up skill and reskill for the economy of tomorrow, and amidst this climate we now know that that economy has arrived. what it means for the 33 million americans who have already lost their jobs and perhaps the more coming is that they need the opportunity to not only find the next job but also to ensure that they've moved into high quality

jobs as they make that move. and as we talk to our fortune 500 customers over the last two months, we heard a striking thing. on the one hand, you have the employers laying off employees in droves, which we're all talking about, but on the other hand you still have huge skills gaps and huge challenges for many companies who are hiring in fields like allied health and technology and trades. and so what we realized and what drove us to launch next chapter, which we're excited to be launching today, was that there was a chance to help the displaced workers on one side up skill, reskill and find the jobs they need on the other side of the hiring market. >> we have spoken with walmart who has told us they are looking to hire as many people as quickly as they can and that they were looking to do that from places where you are seeing massive layoffs. we've spoken with hotels yesterday. we had the ceo of hilton on who is trying to work with some of those retailers to find jobs for

some of his employees who have been furloughed. how do you assist in that process? how does this work >> thanks for asking so we've taken a modern approach to outplacement benefits the outplacement benefit of 2019 would take the low wage worker who lost their job m hospitality and aim to quickly find them another low wage job in another low wage field those low wage jobs in the next field, they might be the right temporary home for that worker, but it's at high risk of automation in the coming months or years which we already knew before the covid crisis came what we're aiming to do is help those workers get the temporary work and the emergency services they need to stay afloat but also think about how do we reskill and up skill them for an economy of tomorrow, which includes things like training in fields like data analytics or skilled trades and helping them understand how to match into those jobs as they complete their training over the next couple of months >> and what will that entail

online training? like what kind of courses would you be teaching somebody to say, okay, here's how we're going to get you ready for this next level job? >> we're lucky that we've been working with online training providers, largely nonprofit universities like southern new hampshire and purdue global as well as great skilled trades in allied health providers like penn foster and they have certificates in digital marketing for jobs that you is port the facebook advertising platform or jobs that help you be a salesforce administrator. we've been, working with that network for years and we're turning our attention to the shorter form training, the training that can help folks get back into a higher quality, higher paying job as fast as possible >> yeah. i think about a lot of those jobs that you mentioned, the higher paying jobs like somebody who would be working with the marketing and advertising platforms for facebook i mean, those jobs are going to get hit at this point, too, and are. we're watching advertising

collapse what do you do about that? >> that one is an interesting example where there are still needs in the administrative layer. think about sales force administration, customer success or our friends at game sight had a great survey that said even though many tech companies are laying off workers right now, where they're still hiring is in the client services, customer success and customer service roles, and that makes sense, right? many of the jobs that used to be done face to face folks are now able to do from home, but they need to be trained in how to do that customer service work they might used to do it at a hotel, in an environment where they were working with a customer and now they're going to do it over a computer and over the phone we need to reskill those workers to do that >> who pays you? the companies like walmart and chipotle that have signed up to retrain their employees? >> so the employers pay the way they used to pay for an outplacement benefit but what they used to pay for was just

resume writing and in some cases interview practicing and what we're encouraging them to think about is instead helping to pay for the education and training they pay those dollars directly to the universities and learning providers and we work with those schools who pay us for our technology, services and advising we have close to 300 coaches who are ready to help each of these workers figure out how to land on their feet. >> rachel, i want to thank you for joining us today i have a feeling your services are going to be much more needed in the months to come. we appreciate your time. >> thanks for having me. >> andrew? okay thanks coming up, a preview of what to expect for this historic jobs report that we're going to be getting now in just a little over an hour here are the futures ahead of that big number. dow looks like it would open up about 286 points higher. nasdaq up 110 points s&p 500 up about 36 points plus you don't want to miss this later. uber ceo dara khosrowshahi will

be here. we'll do that live at 8 eastern time you don't want to miss it. we'll be back in a moment. turn now for today's aflac trivia question. when did harley-davidson start mass production of its motorcycle the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues eighty dollars. a hundred dollars. i had good health insurance. why isn't this covered? well, then they started getting bigger. eight-hundred dollars. eighteen hundred dollars. i saved for this. but not that much. i'm glad i had aflac. they gave me money when i needed it most. that's why aflac is here, to help with the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. i love that aflac duck. aflac! get to know us at aflac.com

our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence. yeah, they help us with achievable steps along the way... ...so we can spend a bit now, knowing we're prepared for the future. surprise! we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. oooh, well... i'm good at my condo. oh. i love her condo. nana throws the best parties. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement.

when did harley-davidson start mass production of its motorcycle the answer, 1905 in milwaukee, wisconsin.

all right. we have the jobless claims number coming up in just about an hour's time it is just one indicator of the pain being inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic there are so many economic and human tragedies that we report on every day along with those crises, there are also so many small losses that everyone is feeling right now. those losses loom pretty large especially in the uncertain times. we'd like to take a moment right now to celebrate a few special milestones for the extended squawk family. first off is kevin doran he's a neighbor of mine. he and his friends are graduating from indiana university this weekend. here he is with a group of fellow seniors from stone mansion and stewart hannah is graduating from the university of michigan. her neighbor is graduating from lawrence college in new york then there's the niece and nephew of one of our producers, katie cramer

and here she is with the cross-country seniors from westerville south, too katie's nephew, andrew lafferty is graduating from skyline high school there all of these kids are not only missing graduation and also their prom speaking of prom here's our daughter kimmy. we did our own prom at home. she got dressed up actually, that's not kimmy i'll come back to that in a second kimmy got dressed up at home we took pictures and we did our own little prom picture here you have to celebrate things our producer, jacob gernen, he's graduating from topeka high school this spring the ceremony was supposed to be this weekend and our producer ann blake was set to celebrate her first communion this week. it was a big deal. she was very excited and we want to say, ann, we're very proud of you. ann's other daughter meredith was to be celebrating her

kindergarten graduation. meredith, congratulations to you. thumbs up, honey toby taylor's daughter, mave proud kindergarten graduate. oh, my gosh, that's adorable we want all of these kids to know how proud we are of them and give our own shoutout celebration of some of life's little joyce. >> really good really good, becky thanks for doing that. luckily my kids aren't in that last year, but even missing a whole half of a sophomore year in what is the best, you know, in college or my son's tennis season totally canceled. just a lot of stuff. i remember -- >> lacrosse is gone, track. >> i remember how nervous i was for first communion. maybe that's good. i remember it like it was yesterday. that's a big deal. we used to go like this. we didn't -- >> no, i know. walk down. but -- >> yeah. >> so many kids who are missing so much. we're proud of all of them >> we are.

we'll look back on this though hopefully. these are the things you remember and a lot of kids are missing. a lot of people in general are missing a lot of things, birthdays, all kinds of stuff. still to come on "squawk box," economists, but you know what, got a lot to be thankful for obviously. >> we do >> with tragic things that families are facing. anyway, now let's move on to this those are the numbers we're lacking for for the employment report today, speaking of families really affected nonfarm payrolls expected to lose 21.5 million. unemployment rate that you -- i never thought that my lips would make that. gernin, is that his brother? looks like him. >> looks just like him. >> i thought maybe that was him. you know, we couldn't get a shot -- >> i thought it was at first that's him no, actually, that's the good

looking brother now that i see way better anyway, the futures -- >> stirring the pot. well done. >> stirring the pot. that's what happens when i start getting, you know, emotional i have to fall back on hiding everything anyway, the future ahead of the numbers. we'll get ready for the report and the trading day ahead with lazard ceo peter orszag. stay tuned we'll be back. yes. the first word to any adventure. but when allergies and congestion strike, take allegra-d... a non-drowsy antihistamine plus a powerful decongestant. so you can always say "yes" to putting your true colors on display. say "yes" to allegra-d.

one word, bleak, horrific, tragic those are words used to describe the jobs report for april due out in an hour steve liesman joins us with

more you went into this crappy field. what's it called, the dismal science, liesman >> dismal science. >> i blame you today all those words are not unusual sometimes when you are talking about the economy. there are good times but then there are times like this where you need words really to try to, you know -- that are telling us what we're all feeling, i guess, right now. some of us more than others unfortunately. >> yeah. i think that's right, joe. i think it's also sort of what you're kind of pointing at is that every -- these words and these numbers, they all kind of denote a human tragedy and what everybody wants to know from this report is, look, as you said, everybody's already using all of these words the numbers are kind of going to be pretty clear that they're going to be terrible, but how long lasting is it going to be do people get back to work quickly? that's the question we're trying to cull or the answer we're trying to cull from these answers today.

21.5 million job losses. 16% unemployment rate. the average hourly wages supposed to be up 0.3% they may be up more than that. one of the suspicions is the lowest wage workers left the work force so what's left would be higher wage workers you could see quite a bit of decline. there's the april adp. all kinds of stuff confirming that here's what the unemployment rate would look like if the estimate came in accurately. near quadrupling one month, that's all right. do we get to a second month here where it starts to look that bad? early indications since the middle of the month, the jobless gains have remained strong the surveys have been bad and manufacturing and service sectors have showed some troubles still brewing three forces at work i see in the jobs market now. business/government closings due to the virus that's really the april story.

are there knock-on economic closings that happen companies that aren't closed because they're concerned about the virus, because they don't have business. then you have the positive effects possibly of fed/government programs, limited reopenings and some hirings for the new normal we've heard about. e.h. shepherd son writes we have to conclude that job losses are filtering up through businesses and into supply chains we hope most of these jobs will come back but nothing is certain especially in the restaurant entertainment sectors. income will be lost, what sectors may have been benefitted or could hurt and you'll see that sectoral data it's a start as we're thinking about the road back. this will require an historic effort to put americans back to work, joe. >> all right, steve. i wonder if it was the slightest bit better if we take solace in that or just know there's still more tt matter, steve, more or

less >> i was trying to think if there was sort of an up side number. >> yeah. >> the trouble with the up side number is going to be there's a lot of trouble that the government's having putting this together i had a talk with one of the people involved at the bls a few weeks ago and she told me that they're making really interesting efforts to call people by phone, to get them to file electronically. so there's going to be some question as to whether or not if it's a better number, did they miss people? that's why we're going to have to dig into the number and see and read the notes that they write. >> beck? >> hey, steve, just a quick question for you we were speaking earlier this morning with michelle gerard she was talking about how there is a number in the household survey that tells you how many of these people think they'll get called back within six months i think she said about 1/4 of the people last time around from the 700,000 plus number we saw how quickly can we get that? because i think that would be an

important number, not only to see this time around but to see if it's gone up or down from last time? >> as fast as i can wade through the report we can get what's called the temporary layoffs number and we'll look at that to see how many people believe they'll be called back quickly the question is, becky, how much knowledge did they have? and i think what this report might do is be the catalyst for a conversation about how do we get back to work what is the plan here? what is the plan by which we bring people back safely, bring employees back safely, bring customers back safely? i will say i've been very surprised. the initial reopening data that we have, the high frequency data, doesn't show a whole lot of people coming back. there's maybe a problem between governments and governors opening up their states and the willingness of customers and businesses to reopen >> thanks, steve we'll see you coming up in a few minutes. andrew >> hey, thanks, becky.

meantime, as economic data deteriorates, we'll see the numbers today, the stock market is off of the lows the march numbers are here the disconnect, what's happening with the reopening of america and what might be forever changed is peter orszack he is ceo of lazard. great to see you this morning. thanks for joining us. you wrote a piece about a week ago about the idea of business being forever changed by this and even a discussion about capitalism to some degree being changed by this. and i was hoping you could explain what you meant by that. >> well, as you know, there's been a debate that's been building over what i'll call the ee c econ 101 approach, companies serving only their shareholders and a new perspective from the business roundtable perspective from last fall this crisis is going to tilt

dramatically towards the stakeholder view and that's because the norms are shifting and because government is going to be much more involved in the economy over the next several years than it was over the past two decades. it's plausible, for example, that the federal reserve is going to wind up owning 5 to 15% of corporate debt. there's going to be a whole array of different ways in which norms will shift coming out of this. >> dive deeper how does that happen are we talking about -- go ahead. >> i was already saying, we're already seeing the front end of it we have second mnuchin calling on companies to hand back loans or government subsidies that they were legally entitled to even though perhaps there's an objection to whether they should be receiving it and they are returning them that is much different than the famous dictum from judgeler in

hand, whatever the law is, grab as much as you can, which is the econ 101 perspective we're already seeing the front end of that. that's because in crises like these, just like in wars and other dramatic events, what's acceptable behavior changes. it's not surprising. >> right so let me ask you a separate question it's really related to today we're looking at the stock market obviously looking like it's going to open higher. we're also going to get these terrible numbers today you spent a lot of time in the board room virtually at least these days with ceos across america and one of the conversations happening around every dining table is what oftentimes looks like a disconnect how is it possible the stock market is doing as well as it's doing and we're looking at unemployment numbers the way they're looking. what does it look like from your perspective speaking to so many business leaders >> three things on this. first, a big driver of equity

prices is alternative investments or another way of thinking about it is you're taking the future earnings and discounting them back to today to get the price and interest rates are going to be extremely low, you know, barely positive for a very long period of time so that does provide some support to equity prices that's within the market so the relative valuations without speaking to the overall market, many of these are signaling what we think will actually be the case so, for example, large companies have fallen much less than smaller companies. it is likely that as a result of this crisis the strong will get stronger the matthew effect will carry through, so the stock market is reflecting that in its relative valuations but then the final piece which is the core of your question, what about those earnings going out into the future and are we being overly optimistic i think there, look, the fact of the matter is we keep wanting to

pretend that this is not a -- ultimately a health question, but theeconomics are going to follow from the underlying health situation that's why coming back to steve's comment a moment ago, the reason that consumers are not returning to shops and polls suggest that 3/4 of americans don't want to return to restaurants or retail outlets regardless of what the government says is there still is that underlying concern about the disease. and so -- >> peter >> yeah. >> peter, i'm a relatively risk averse person. i agree. i've been of the view that the health will lead this, meaning testing, all of these other steps will lead this and lead us back to some semblance of normalcy, especially given some of the polling data we've seen about people's reticence to go back and start shopping again. however, you look at people's actions and you might start to think to yourself that maybe we

as a country are a lot more or a lot less risk averse than maybe i individually might be, that maybe we have a greater appetite for that risk or a willingness to accept that risk. and i wonder whether that's what's really in the market here >> i don't think so. i mean, possibly and i agree with you that there's a lot of variation, but i think one of the things we've got to be doing at this point is now thinking about this as a six to 12-month issue instead of just assuming that it's mission accomplished how can we -- you mentioned testing, but how can we innovate how can we kind of half the return, as it were, to make the tradeoffs a bit better so, for example, there's a new proposal out to do pooled testing. there are groups of workers that would be tested at one point in time and then there's follow-up testing afterwards we have not had the debate over whether social distancing should be segmented which different parts of the population.

there's research suggesting that the economic cost is half. if older people have different approaches to social distancing. these are the questions we need to be addressing in order to get back to economic growth. >> final question as a budget guy who used to run the omb. how do you think about our budget how do you think about our deficits and debt as a nation but also the various municipalities, cities, states that are going to be hammered by this situation >> we are running a grand fiscal experiment and that's an experiment we need to run. there really is no other approach to cushioning the blow, and if we didn't do what we're doing, the long-term effects would be dramatically worse because we'd have a humpty-dumpty effect where it would be much harder to put the economy on course without aggressive government action one of the things we should be doing now is locking in additional government assistance

for the next 6 to 12 months because the backlav against the initial round will only build. we're going to get closer to a presidential election. the odds are high we'll need that yes, we're going to have a much higher debt to gdp ratio, but there really is no alternative unless we want to suffer not only the kind of unemployment rate we're going to see today but a very long lasting after effect from those kinds of numbers. >> peter orszag, stay safe and healthy and we appreciate your perspective this morning. >> thanks for having me. >> thanks. becky, over to you. thanks, andrew when we come back, former fda commissioner dr. scott gottleib on moderna's approval to start phase 2 trials. then uber's ceo is optimistic that riders will come back that will be at 8 a.m. eastern

time e 'll talk about the quarter, thgig economy and jobs we'll be right back.

we want to mention an important event coming up next week join tina fey, rise up new york to support the city and the state hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic the telethon will air monday at 7 p.m. here on cnbc. andrew. >> thanks, joe it is such an important organization our good friend russ moore runs it on monday morning the founder of robinhood paul tudor jones will be on "squawk box.

we'll talk about robinhood and he was the first to tell us about the potential impacts of the pandemic back in january and came on our air and was quite bullish in the midst of some of the worst weeks during all of this we'll have a full conversation with him on monday when we come back, dr. scott gottleib will have the latest on the battle of covid-19 the ceo of uber is going to be our guest. we'll find out a lot from him. he has data all across america as things try to reopen. plus, we'll be count iing down the april jobs right it will hit 16%. some say 20% you don't want to miss any of it we're back in a moment clean is a feeling.

it's the simple joy of washing your hands, without ever touching a faucet. it's the little things that matter. that's why we create moments to feel kohler clean, every day. ♪ confident financial plans, calming financial plans, complete financial plans.

they're all possible with a cfp® professional. find yours at letsmakeaplan.org. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. there are times when our need to connect really matters. to keep customers and employees in the know. to keep business moving.

comcast business is prepared for times like these. powered by the nation's largest gig-speed network. to help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. and a team of experts - here for you 24/7. we've always believed in the power of working together. that's why, when every connection counts... you can count on us. welcome back, everybody. california is set to allow some of its retailers to restart operations businesses that sell clothing, books, sporting goods can start offering curbside pickup that move comes as governor gavin newsom revealed the $21 billion surplus has now turned into a $54 billion deficit joe? >> becky, thanks the fda approving moderna's coronavirus vaccine candidate for phase two trials and expects

to begin a phase three as early as this summer we spoke to ceo stephane bancel earlier. >> i mean, there is always a lot of volunteers for vaccine studies, but especially in a case of the coronavirus as you can expect we're getting a lot of requests and people want to help people want to restart the economy so there's a lot of people who are interested to participate. >> joining us now, dr. scott gottleib, former fda commissioner he's also a cnbc contributor serves on the boards of illumina and pfizer i keep hearing it again and again, scott the previous record for how quickly you can develop a vaccine is ebola and it was five years. now there are -- you know, president trump said i want one by the end of this year and people that just -- i don't know, for some reason that don't want to hear anything positive we saw the same thing with potential drugs and everything

else you're very realistic. in fact, a lot of people say, oh, that gottleib, he's been way too pessimistic about a lot of things in fact, you're a doctor and you're very realistic. even you have said it could be by the fall, we could have a viable vaccine you don't discount it completely that something could be -- with the state of today's science, we could figure something out that quickly. have i got your feelings on that correct? >> well, i think we could have more than one vaccine in large scale clinical trials by fall and available in millions of doses, low tens of millions of doses once you aggregate it across the developers. most of the vaccines are largely on a comparable time frame there's no one really ahead of one another. i think these are likely to be brought through development on comparable time frames the regulators want to bring them through development aside of each other. we could have millions of doses ready through the fall

in the setting of an outbreak we would deploy it to the city and using it in a setting therapeutically and experimentally these are going to be very large trials before these vaccines get licensed if you look at, for example, rodotec, that was tested in 70,000 patients. these were approved when i was at fda the first time. tens of thousands of patients are likely to be enrolled in each of the trials with these vaccines in large phase 3 trials we're probably looking at in a best case scenario a 2021 event in terms of approving the vaccines, probably second half of 2021 but they could be available much sooner than that to be used on an emergency basis and used in large scale trials where you're delivering treatment. >> see, that's -- it just depends what you're talking about. it is 12 to 18 months and people that, as i say, are more pessimistic about things point to 12 to 18 months what are we going to do, stay

shut in for that long? but you need to say what you're actually talking about and the actual number of people that were getting it in that 12 to 18-month period is substantial could be millions of people getting it in the meantime. >> that's potentially right. i mean, it's a little bit of semantics. >> right >> when are you going to have it actually approved for everyone probably best case scenario, second half of 2021. when could it be available both therapeutically and experimentally while we're collecting information that could start as early as the fall it depends how much risk we're willing to take. in terms of actually having a sufficient safety database, a long enough follow up to feel confident you can mass inoculate an entire population, i suspect the bar is going to be pretty high and appropriately high. that doesn't mean it won't be available in the interim to be used in selective circumstances to try to derive benefit >> that's a fairly long time frame and we're not going to

shelter in place for the entire time probably. >> right we'll have drugs, too. >> we do but in places that were kind of early, unfortunately, and got the worst end of this, i'm talking about new jersey and new york, we are seeing some flattening of the curve and some positive signs there do you foresee a viable way to keep the vulnerable population in that sort of state of staying inside and not being exposed and ledding letting younger people who are not exposed go out and start working again, go out and start doing things again any time in the near future? >> well, i mean, as a matter of policy it's hard to tell certain people they can't do something and other people they can or certain people can go to work and others can't as a practical matter, people are going to start doing that

themselves they're going to be much more cautious there's a possibility there's a heavy seasonable component there's a heavy seasonal component. in july and august we see it start to collapse. that's what happened in july and august it came back in the fall the fall is a different picture here it's hard to predict what's going to happen in the fall with this coronavirus i think it will come back. others debate that it's possible that we do get some quiescent months and we don't see it transfer as much in the hot, humid months. that's what we can hope for, the summer will be a bit of a backstop >> scott, i was wondering, who is going to get those early vaccinations who's going to sign up if we don't have all the testing there? is that going to health care

workers on the front line? is it people who volunteer because they feel more comfortable signing up and saying that early? >> well, so looking beyond these trials that are going on right now, which are largely safety trials but they're looking at immunogenicity, thinking about the phase 3 trials in the fall, there's basically two plans. one plan is to vaccinate people who work in grocery store, checkout lines, tsa employees, maybe front line workers though i doubt that that's a traditional development plan the other development plan would be if this is epidemic in the fall or we have large outbreaks in the cities, there you would be deploying the vaccine in the setting of the outbreak. you might randomize an entire city to get the vaccine, parts of the city. you would give groups of 20,000 people the vaccine in different time intervals and see if that

affected the propensity of the group. you'd vaccinate 20,000 people, wait, vaccinate another 20,000 there's two different approaches that you would take here >> doctor, thank you we've got to run >> thanks a lot. >> in a different time i'd ask people to photo shop big foot back there running around, but it's just -- the times are way too serious right now. i thought i spotted -- i don't know maybe not. >> thanks, doctor. >> yeah. >> deer. >> hope to see you soon. okay when we come back, you don't want to miss this. the ceo of uber is going to join us plus the jobs report.

breaking news. it is jobs friday in america

but nothing like we've seen before estimates pointingto more than 20 million jobs last month and unemployment rates skyrocketing to 16% these numbers are all due to come because of the coronavirus and they were unthinkable just a few short months ago the data and expert analysis are just 30 minutes away ahead of that, a big interview with the most important name in the gig economy. that's uber's ceo dara khosrwshahi. buckle up. the final hour of "squawk box" as far as right now. good morning, i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin the u.s. equity futures ahead of one of the worst jobs reports to ever be posted, which is coming in less than a half an hour. we still have positive momentum

in the stock market. the dow jones up about 250 nasdaq, which is now up for the year even before today's move, up 100 the s&p indicated up 32. becky? >> joe, thanks we're less than 30 minutes away from the april jobs report economists are expecting a loss of more than 21 million jobs last month and the unemployment rate is seen spiking to 16%. that's the highest level since the great depression and a complete reversal from the historic lows just a few months ago. our panel of experts will be here to analyze the numbers once they are out andrew >> thanks, becky before we do that, the biggest name in the gig economy about to join us. ride hailing giant uber reporting its biggest loss in three quarters as the coronavirus battles the global economy. shares are much higher demand he says may be returning. joining us right now first on cnbc is uber's ceo dara

khosrwshahi. great to see you i was thinking we were sitting together outside of the new york stock exchange nearly almost to the day a year ago when you were pursuing your ipo. what a year it's been. i want to go straight to the moment we are in and really try to understand what you're seeing one of the things you said on the call yesterday was that there was a sense that we're seeing early signs of a recovery potentially a bottom i wanted to understand what's leading you to that view >> thank you, andrew that ipo seems very, very far away in hindsight we're very happy that we went after it because it really has provided us with a fortress balance sheet to be able to take on these incredibly difficult times. for us q1 was a tale of two quarters january and february were strong we were coming in as expected to stronger, especially on a

profitability side and then corona hit. march was difficult and in april we saw our rides business, our largest business, very profitable be down about 80% on a year-on-year basis which, as you know, is a shock to the system step one for us is how do we make sure our drivers and riders are safe how do we make sure our communities are safe how do we make sure our employees are safe but as we have taken care of our communities and riders and employees, we're now looking forward to the business and we're making adjustments we're making significant adjustments to our costs and we are seeing in the rides business, while it is down substantially, no disputing that, it seems to be off the bottoms. last week, for example, bookings in the u.s. were up 12% week on week and getting better. getting a little bit better off

of a pretty low bottom on the eats side, that was growing very, very quickly in the 50% range. in april we saw the growth outside of india, which we divested, around 89% as more and more people sheltered at home, as more and more restaurants signed up for our service and obviously delivery is a very, very growth area for us. so it was necessary. we're still working on how we react to the crisis. we've got a great balance sheet and we're a diversified business which we think gives us an advantage in a very difficult time. >> let's talk about the strength piece, which is this eats business which that was going to be a loss-making business for a long time. explain what you think is happening, how it transforms itself and whether you think that this is just a pull forward, if you will, because of this unusual moment we're in or whether you think it's

transformational in terms of what the world looks like not just in the next several months but years from now >> well, we think that it is transformational in that eats is becoming a more and more important life line for many restaurants out there, especially small to medium enterprises. dining is over now and for some foreseeable future many of these small businesses are finding a life line, finding a business in delivery and i think they're discovering there's a lot of demand out there. we've always seen historically that eaters when they start using eats, they stick around with a service it's a very high frequency service and once you try it, you tend to stick with a service over a period of time. we think that we have just had an enormous influx of people trying it, a category, getting much, much bigger. we are now working to get into

some adjacent categories like grocery, like delivery as well so we think it's an accelerator but it's also a transformation the eats business just got a lot bigger. >> dara, i want to bring becky in in a moment but i have one big question, which is costs one of the things you're doing is planning to provide if you're not already doing it, ppe masks, other supplies for your drivers. i'm trying to understand what you think that does to your cost base long term >> yeah, andrew, it's definitely going to cost us, but the cost is not the forefront in our minds frankly right now. safety is the first priority for us when we reach out to our riders and eaters, they want to feel safe during this deeply, deeply uncertain time and we have ordered millions of masks. we're ordering cleaning supplies, talking to many, many players out there to ask consistently as we can get masks

and cleaning supplies in our cars we are working on very interesting technology that we're going to introduce to the public as it relates to safety, which we think is unique in the industry we want to set the standard and i think a lot of the competition will follow. the business itself -- >> what does that mean >> -- has the kinds of profits that we think can ultimately support these costs, but right now it's about safety first and then manage costs later. i do think that's the right priority for us. >> dara, can i go back just to uber eats because, you know, that fs a little contentious even before we got into this pandemic about how restaurants were getting their cut of what the profit was going to be and how uber eats was taking its cut. there was a little bit of back and forth where people were trying to figure out how that's going to work. it's going to get more complicated now that restaurants are facing such financial issues of their own how does it work how much of that money goes to

uber for uber eats and how much goes to the restaurant how do you find good partners where you can all work around a smaller pie? >> sure. absolutely when you look at the uber eats business, the cut we get paid for our commission, so to speak, and then the costs of delivery as well. and the -- that's expressed as adjusted revenue marnet revenue 1 11%. the eats business is not making a profit we lost 300 million in ebitda. we think that will be consistent in q2 and improve going forward. we're still losing money in eats i think that we are doing our very best to set and create the most efficient delivery mechanism. we're not making a lot of money on this business and at this

point we believe the best way to get outside demand to our restaurants is to take down delivery fees as much as we can, especially in small and medium restaurants out there, to make sure we push very big demand in this new environment which will make them thrive and grow. >> you mentioned new technology. what kind of technology? >> stay tuned. we'll have more to tell you. there's a lot to show. we do have the best technical team for example, on the safety side, one interesting technology that we're going to be shifting with some great work from our engineers is that we have a selfie type of technology to make sure that the driver who was licensed to drive, who was licensed to be on the platform

was the actual driver who's driving you on a daily basis we're using those kinds of technologies to make sure that the driver is making safe choices, including having a mask on >> and are you anticipating requiring all passengers to wear masks? do you anticipate providing those masks? as this interview has been going on, a driver has tweeted at me saying he is not getting ppe he doesn't understand what that's about i don't understand how that's working in this particular moment speak again to the mask issue and what that looks like. >> absolutely. we are taking the lead of governments, first of all, there are going to be different laws on a local basis we want to make sure that we abide by those laws. we are in the process of securing all this -- all the ppes and the masks and the fulfillment, getting those to the drivers themselves is very, very difficult, as you can imagine. we have some centers where

drivers can pick them up, mail them to their home so we're by no means perfect we're really going to take the leads of the governments and we're very global company. city by city, state by state we're going to make sure that we comply by the laws and that we set the standards for safety >> in terms of making additional adjustments to the business, layoffs, real estate issues, you have spoken about some of that earlier this year but i'm curious if you expect there to be more. >> we do have to adjust our cost base to the new reality. the rides business was down 80%. it's coming off the low and we stated to wall street that we are going to be profitable our goal was to be profitable in q4 of this year. that's going to be delayed until next year, but that is going to require a shift in cost base and taking a look at where we made

bets we did announce a layoff that was very difficult of some really great people this last week we announced a merger, for example, of our jump bites subsidiary with line but take those losses off the books everything is on the table now this is a deep crisis and while we are very well suited to weather the crisis, we still have to make adjustments and that absolutely does include costs. >> all right policy question. as you know, there has been a debate for many, many years about gig workers, the responsibilities of the company to its contractors, whether they should be considered employees and the like, and clearly so many of your drivers could now be considered in many respects front line workers in this pandemic i think there's a new found respect across the country for all people working, whether they're working at walmart at the checkout counter, uber

driver bringing people food, the necessary supplies i just wonder whether you think it changes the conversation in a different way, makes it actually more -- i don't want to say more complicated but potentially more complicated for a company like uber who may have to take on more and more responsibility >> we believe these workers deserve protections and we have always been a proponent of a model that creates flexible work you can get on any time you want, you can earn any time you want if you don't want to earn, you can do something else. i think in this economy where jobs and earnings are going to be at such a premium, it's all the more important to have a system like ours which can be an entry point into earnings. now we've always been a proponent of flexible earnings for anyone, and i think in this environment it's all the more important, with protections. with health care protections,

with minimum earnings and that is absolutely a dialogue that we want to get into and we believe that that dialogue is going to create, and what we are standing up for, is going to create a better system. it rb an on ramp for work and minimum earnings protections and health protections as well. >> dara, does that mean you would be willing to consider a worker who spends more than 40 hours a week as an uber driver as an employee >> the model that we're talking about is that you can work as many hours as you want during the week it doesn't matter if you work 20 hours a week or 40 hours a week and you get protections based on the number of hours that you work i think the system of if you don't work 40 hours you're not full time. if you work 40 hours you are full time and heart break between the two. that's the old work, right >> but what do those protections -- >> if you're putting in the

hours, you should get minimum earnings based on the hours that you're working and you should get health care based on the hours that you're working. if you have a have and have nots based on a particular number of hours worked, that doesn't make sense in a world -- in a technical forward world. >> well, does that mean you would be paying for the health care benefits for those people who are working 20 hours or 40 hours or 60 hours? >> yes. >> how would the benefits work out? >> based on we would put -- we've actually talked to folks about this we would put monies into a fund based on how much our drivers or couriers have and we want to have these discussions with the government. >> let me ask you about that what's the difference in having them called employees or having them pay this pool is it a much lesser amount of money that you'd be putting into

a health care plot than if they were working 40 hours. i understand your point, that it's not fair to cut it off with 20 hours but i would also understand the point of somebody working 60 hours saying i'm still not going to get what i would get if i was a full-time employee somewhere else. how does that break down >> a lot of full-time employees get different health care benefits so it's difficult to generalize and say it's equal t x or y what we're aiming for is generally comparable health care that aims to protect you and minimal earnings based on number of hours worked and what we're looking for essentially is that flexible on ramp or off ramp you want to work, you get the benefits, you work you don't want to work, you don't. >> finally, dara i'm curious what peoplethink, there was surge pricing,

premiums in a world where maybe there will be less moving around what happens >> i think in a world where there's less demand for ridership, usually pricing remains somewhat subdued that's not a bad thing as people return with the economic difficulties, we think the pricing of getting an uber ride is going to be attractive and on uber eats as well, we've been reducing the costs of delivery, especially for the small to medium restaurants, to make sure that the friction of getting on to our systems and using our services is as low as it can be. i think pricing is going to be a good thing when price comes back we're seeing demand come back. we've seen week-on-week demand for rides increase four weeks in a row. we know the road to recovery is uneven and the green chutes are

there and we're going to work to be a sponsor of those green chutes. >> we're glad to see the green chutes and we're glad to see you this morning thank you so much for joining us, dara stay safe and healthy. thank all of your drivers who are doing really important work out there to keep all of us moving around, especially the people who need to be right now. >> yeah. we thank our drivers and our do you rememberers every day. thank you. >> joe, over to you. comingup, the april jobs report likely numbers never seen before economists suspecting 20 million lost jobs and unemployment rate and also a job panel what it all means for the economy, for markets, for your money. stay tuned "squawk box" is coming right back these days staying connected is more important than ever.

so we're working 24/7 to maintain a reliable network, to meet your growing internet needs. we're helping customers who are experiencing financial difficulties stay connected. we're increasing internet speeds for low income families in our internet essentials program. and delivering self-install kits to your door. nos comprometemos a mantenerte conectado. we're committed to keeping you connected. for more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity.com/prepare.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning take a look at futures we are literally ten minutes away from the all important dow number dow 244 points higher, s&p 32 points higher and nasdaq 95 points higher. all of this might change in a couple of minutes when we get the numbers. becky. >> that's right. the jobs report that's hitting at 8:30 eastern time is expected to be the worst we've ever seen. it's all, of course, because of the layoffs triggered by coronavirus. our experts jobs panel is in place. they're ready to bring you instant analysis as soon as the number hits. n'go anywhere. you're watching a special edition of "squawk box" right here on cnbc

so good. oh hey, did you say you needed help with investing? because i know someone who's really great. and you trust him? totally. yeah. we went to school together. i'll check him out on investor.gov. so, what'll it be? i'll just have the burger. before you invest, get the full report. check out an investment professional's background for free on investor.gov. before you invest, investor.gov.

confident financial plans, calming financial plans, complete financial plans. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. find yours at letsmakeaplan.org.

welcome back to "squawk box. the futures about where they were up a little over 200 points now on the dow jones the s&p indicated up 29 and the nasdaq has been up 100 it's up 88 points. andrew >> okay. coming up, here it comes, our final jobs number. estimates for 21 million jobs lost in april. our panelists standing by. futures are up ahead of all of this keep your eyes on it stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc we are back in just moments.

ahead of that report we want to show you our jobs report austan goolsbee is here and we have kate rodgers with black rock and of course our very own team, rick santelli, steve liesman, mike santoli standing by steve, we'll have this number in just a moment. i think we are less than 50 seconds away at this point this is an important number. again, one of the worst numbers we are anticipating getting since the great we session it's important to know every one of those numbers comes with a name, a story behind it. steve, we've been watching all of these things.

this morning the market has been higher dow is indicated to open by 222 points it's been anticipating the numbers for a long time. s&p futures up by 27 now the nasdaq up by 81. then if you've been watching what's been happening with the 10-year, 0.6%. the jobs report. before that number the market is up steve, you have the numbers for us >> 20.5 million, a job loss of 20.5 million the unemployment rate rises to 14.7%. 20.5 million is the most historic job loss in a single month. 14.7 does not take out the 1933 high but certainly is a post war high which was 10.8% hit back in 1982 look very quickly through the survey here. the number of unemployed persons rose by 15.9 million to 23

million. that's lopping on in addition to the ones we had in march all major work groups saw increases. 13% for adult men. just moving on here, let's see if i can find the -- here's the establishment survey so 20.5 million is the number. leisure hospitality declining by 7.7 million or 47% there were 2.5 million job losses in education and health care professional business services down 2.1 million retail trade down 2.1 million as well manufacturing lost 1.3 million government also dropping by 980,000. local government was down by 801,000 reflecting school closures it says here in this report construction losing nearly 1 million jobs wholesale trade down 363,000 i'm trying to find any particular area here that might have seen any job increases and we're just not seeing it

there's the average hourly wa s wages. i don't see the percentage increase in front of me. the work week on nonfarm private payrolls increased that's interesting that the work week increased as well i'm going to throw it back to you, becky keep going through there's a special note from the labor department about the jobs numbers. as expected and as i was saying in the 7:00 hour, i think this is looking back, this number, but it should start a conversation going forward about what needs to be done to put americans to work both from what businesses have to do and what government has to do to put a plan together so that this is not -- this is a very temporary thing and not a permanent thing. >> austan goolsbee, let's start with that part of the conversation how long do you think this lasts? and what can governments and businesses, what can and should they be doing right now? >> well, look, we have to hope

that this isn't like any normal job number the thing that -- that level is lower than at the height of the great depression, but in terms of the speed at which it happens, it's worse than the great depression the worst year for unemployment in american history, the unemployment rate for the year went up a little less than 8%. we just went up more than 10% in a month. so we have to hope this is not a normal business cycle and it won't take us more than a decade to work this back down if the government and individual states can make sure people don't get evicted, we don't have to liquidate and we can get control of the spread of the virus, hopefully there's a chance we can come back if not to normal, at something like a much faster pace than we usually do but this has got to be the most

heartbreaking day in the history of the job market. >> yeah. glen, it's not a surprise. we knew this was going to be a very difficult number. we knew that this was going to be something that we were looking at, massive numbers, tens of millions of americans without jobs how about you? how quickly do you think we can turn this? how long does this last? because there have been some reports out there suggesting that it might take five years or longer before we can back to the levels we had before jpmorgan was saying ten years. what do you think? >> well, i do think this is a heartbreaking day in the labor market each of these stories is human and personal about employees, about small, mid-sized businesses i think we could be back to the same level of gdp by late 2021, early 2022 that's not a good news story it could well be worse what we need is government intervention to continue i would start in the second of austan's points.

we've got to focus on the public health aspects first, the testing and tracing and then see what it meets to be for a gradual reopening. that's probably going to require continued support for businesses and employees during that period of reopening government really has to get its act together i say government, meaning both the federal government which will provide a lot of funding, but the state government where a lot of the action will occur >> hey, kate, let's take a moment to acknowledge the market's reaction of this. the dow is indicated up by 220 points again, not a surprise that this number came in we shut down the economy on purpose to try to tackle the pandemic, but the bigger questions, again, still remain about how we get back to it, how many companies shut down in the meantime, particularly small businesses so the market's reaction today is what in your sense? >> well, look, i think we've been having this debate for a

while on a disconnect, what's been happening in market pricing and the really horrific news on both the economic data and theas data you know, we know that stuff is getting -- is bad and getting worse and yet the market has been shrugging it off. certain sections of the market have continued to really rally some of that is around positioning and short covering i'm thinking specifically around energy and as people kind of rebalance their overall sector allocations, but some of it is trying to look through this noise and say, okay, when we come out the other side, who are the winners going to be? this is a really challenging exercise, and it's very difficult to predict the timing. at this point i would say the market is really moving on the better -- the better news in three areas. one, slately fewer infections and slightly fewer deaths. gradual reopening of the economy and then the third, of course, being the u.s. and china having a slightly more constructive talk i would say over the last 24

hours that's had an impact on market sentiment i think others have made this move that's really important we need to continue to get government and policies aboard in order for the market to move forward. for us not to be reacting to some slightly incremental news flow but to something slightly fundamentally driven. >> rick, the bond market has gotten plenty of support from the federal reserve. what do you think? what are you kind of hearing from people in the bond market >> definitely the federal reserve has done a great job they've cleared a path into purchasing securities and it may go into negative interest rates. yes, the support is a good thing but it's a good thing up to a certain point. many are worried that the buying, front running, exactly what you're discussing could put it negative. market driven negative rates it happened in fed fund futures yesterday depicting that investors think it's possible. this is where forward guidance comes in big time. the federal reserve needs to nip

this in the bud. boston, this isn't a horrendous number you no he what a horrendous number is? when you predict up 1,000 or you get down to 22 million or 19 million. when you predict down 22 million and down 19 million, what it means is it isn't the attempt of employers to fire for bad business, not because there's malfeasance in an industry or that they need bailouts because they did horrible things, this is the government's jobs report. the governments of the world chose to deal with the health issue by putting people out of work it's a huge semantics difference and whether it takes five or ten years, everybody on this panel has their own opinion, but the market has an opinion, too from my perspective, it doesn't look like five to ten years. >> mike, i think that's a big part of the question, mike santoli. i guess the permanent damage -- the big companies are going to be able to weather this. they have taken steps. they've gotten access to the capital markets. i think there's still a question about what this means for small

businesses, places that can't necessarily ride out another few months of shutdown and what happens to those jobs or if there's a way back, a path back or a path to hold them over. what do you think? >> reporter: it's obviously not clear. i mean, half of these jobs lost in one month were for leisure, hospitali hospitality, retail. that's the part of the economy we have no firm sense of how fast and how fully it returns. but you're right about it in terms of what the stock market does, it does not capitalize the experience of the median households in the country. essentially it's mostly dominated by very large businesses that do have the wherewithal to weather it and also in some cases benefit from this environment so i don't think it's very clear. i think also the market has benefitted in addition to all of the things kate mentioned from this idea that the fiscal support has come without the markets getting impatient. so, in other words, we've gotten these waves of support the market is willing to bet that it got lucky and some will

be enough to cushion the blow. maybe it was mostly a seven week shock, eight week shock and it can seize upon the incremental direction of change being positive in terms of return. it's a big bet one way or the other, and i don't think right now anybody has a clear enough view to that end point and when we're back to a similarly vital economy that we had a few months ago, right now we're willing to set that question aside if you're investing right now in a near zero interest rate environment with a lot of fed support. >> hey, austan you said that it's up to the government, austan and glen, both of you brought this point up, it's up to the government to do something more to continue to help, but we've gotten past the easy times of help where you saw both parties come together and basically unanimously say we're going to jump in and give money here we've already gun to hear from senators who say at this point we want to make sure the money gets spent but now these states and local places are going to

have to start standing on their own two feet it's not going to be as easy from here, austan, to try to come up with saying, okay, we're going to continue to give money, we're going to continue to make sure we're stepping in on this front because the numbers are really big numbers it's hard to get your head around it. at some point it's not going to be so easy what do you think? >> becky, i totally agree with you. i observe, we've already spent more correcting for inflation than we spent on world war i and korea and vietnam and iraq and the war in afghanistan combined. we've spent almost $3 trillion so there's clearly going to be fatigue about coming up with money. that's why i think what glen and i are emphasizing is spend everything you have to control the spread of this virus if you could waive a magic want a wand and go back to work next

week, we could go back to work without a vaccine, numerous countries are coming out of lockdown and they are recovering because they've done a lot of testing and the only people who have to go out of commission are people who are infectious and can get other people sick. if we're just going to argue about how much money can we burn to keep warm while the heater is off, i fear that it's going to turn it into a regular business cycle and in regular booms, the unemployment rate comes down at most 1.5 points a year so if we get on the regular road, we are a decade into this thing. so we've got to go the other way. >> reporter: becky -- >> yes, steve. >> reporter: i just want to read you a note here that i've gotten a chance to read from the bls which basically says the unemployment rate probably should have been 5 percentage points higher saying that if the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to other reasons had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall

unemployment rate would have been five percentage points higher than reported so let me just give you -- >> what does that mean people who are working at home or people who are at home and not getting paid, steve? >> reporter: employed but -- they still had a job, i assume they were still being -- i'm not really sure, becky, exactly what that means there but the note does say that the overall rate would have been five points higher than reported on a not seasonally adjusted basis if they had been recorded as unemployed, not at work due to other reasons. >> maybe they went back? their jobs reopened? i don't get that note. >> no, i don't think so. i think at the time that they were unemployed -- that the survey was taken, they were employed but absent from work due to other reasons over and above the others absent for a typical april i guess is what they're saying here. the number of temporary layoffs, which is the number we had talked about in the prior, was up 10 fold to 18 million

permanent layoffs was 544,000. just a couple quick things the african-american unemployment rate up 10 points to 16.7, which was the same as the white unemployment rate rising 10 points to 14.2 the hispanic unemployment rate looks like it suffered worse though, up 12 points also, women up 2 points more than men and then this is something that i think has political ramifications here less than a high school degree, your unemployment rate went up to 21.2% from 6.8. bachelor's degree and higher went up to just 8.4% so all kinds of information in that as to the split in the society and in the economy here over who is most badly faemgted he affected by the first round of layoffs. >> just to clarify, you said 18 million of the -- what was it, 20.5 million layoffs are

considered temporary these are people who think their job will come back in the next six months or less >> on temporary layoff yeah that's the number, 18 million. >> i mean, that's good news. >> number of unemployed persons -- >> people don't control their own fates. this is up to their companies. they have the impression at least from their employer that they think they'll be coming back >> reporter: that's right. that's right the number of unemployed persons reporting being on temporary layoff increased 10 fold to 18.1 million in april the number of permanent job losers increased by 544,000 to 2 million. >> steve, that would actually seem quite promising if you look at other financial crises historically when we've looked at furloughed workers, that's been one of the great indicators of how quickly we come back. as you mentioned earlier, the big issue is whether these furloughed workers are right, whether we're playing a confidence game or not

you look at that number, is that number higher than you would have thought by my expectation that is much higher i thought the losses would have been considered quote, unquote, more permanent. >> reporter: i don't think people should believe losses are more permanent there's two waves here hitting the job market the first wave -- i disagree a little bit with rick because the data show people stopped going to work, stopped going to malls, closed their businesses down before the governments did that's pretty clear in the data. then you had a series of closures that were government ordered and now you've had some reopenings and people haven't come back. the extent to which the government is responsible for this and consumer is one aspect of it. >> coronavirus. >> and then -- >> reporter: let me just finish here then you have a second round of hits to the economy that are just going to be economic shocks in other words, even businesses that could be open may not be open because others are closed

for whatever reason and that's why we're seeing these high unemployment claims in the past week that's what bodes badly i think for the month of may. >> steve, look out a little bit farther because the other big issue is that these ppp loans which should be granted or forgiven, if you will, extend to the end of june. there's going to be a big issue as to what happens on july 1st with so many of those people, some of which are being employed simply because the loans exist and then there's the huge question of whether they're going to actually be able to go back to work, whether those businesses will continue how do you measure that? because they're clearly not on -- in these numbers right now. they're continuing to be employed but in some cases artificially so. >> you know, andrew, you just point to what you, joe and becky do all the time, what i'm doing all the time which is pushing the story and the questions forward, which is is the government, is the fed, the

treasury, are they preparing for what happens right then? there could be another round we could also, by the way, have people on payrolls rate now that are being paid by these ppp loans that, as you suggest, may come off in july, which is why this 22 million is not about the past, it's about the future. it's about how to get people back to work is the government prepared for this thing to go on further? does it have the right incentives in place? the right system in place? the right health systems in place to get people back to work now? i've not really heard a convincing argument that they're ready to go back to work when i look at the high frequency data i look at atlanta, washington, i look at traffic, i don't see people responding to these reopenings that could be not because the government has closed it but because people have decided not to go. >> glen hubbard, do you want to weigh in again on this we've talked around a lot of different directions coming back to the idea that 18 million of these 20.5 million

people think that their jobs will come back in the next six months or less, i know they don't control their fates. they don't control their dest y destiny. that's the indication they've been given is that at least a silver lining on some of this? >> i think it can be it's not an unreasonable expectation for them, if we stop a mass wave of small and mid-sized business failures. the point has already come up about the ppp program. the fed will be standing up its so called main street lending facility, but we need help for small-sized businesses, mid-sized businesses employers whether it's the fed getting its act together, the ppp. we need the treasury department active in thinking about these things now >> and i guess, glen, to further that point, what happens if a state says go ahead and reopen and like steve said, nobody shows up do you continue to help them in that environment

these are going to be serious questions. what happens if a business reopens and an employee doesn't feel comfortable going back? >> it's a matter of sequencing people are going to reopen the economy. not regulation people have to decide it's safe to go to a store, shop, go gets is you need to get the public health aspect of this right with testing andtracing it would be great to have a vaccine. therapies would be great make sure that people feel safe. if we do that, incremental government assistance with help. if we don't, we're just throwing tons and tons of money at a problem that we're not looking at quite right >> kate, again the market, how it does it interpret this? stocks having a decent rise, but this is coming off a huge crash we have seen in february and march.

>> look, i think glenn and the rest of the panel made a great point. there's so many variables in predicting economic growth over the next couple of quarters, over the next couple of years. as investors, we can't focus on the size of the overall economy. the real project has to be the composition of the economy over the last six to eight weeks we started to see some consumption patterns change. what i'm looking forward to is sort of thinking about the themes that will be dominant in the overall market where will people feel comfortable spending over the forward quarters where will businesses be putting their investmentspend around technology around systems, and really focusing on the composition, not the overall size i have to say, as investors it's tempting to look far forward we always want to have a long-term perspective in terms of forecasting earnings or in terms of forecasting overall activity it is really challenging in this

environment. getting to know balance sheets and digging deep with management teams, i think that's the best way to pick the winners over what will be a fairly volatile and challenging few quarters we believe that the market is at the upper end of the range >> all right let's talk about the market. let's bring in jeremy siegel from penn, historian, professor at wharton jeremy, you know, for many, many years you have been saying that the stock market over time goes up and it's a great economy, great country, great things happen i don't know if you were thinking about the coronavirus how has that changed your long-term view of the stock market >> it hasn't changed the long-term view certainly a short-term shock of unprecedented magnitude. the numbers were tragic but not surprising from what we see.

and really i follow economic news all the time. but i have been following less these announcements that we've been getting because it's the rearview mirror. you know, when i get up in the morning, i check all the virus data, the trends in the virus, the trends in the developments, in therapeutics, in vaccines like the interview that you just had with scott gottlieb, who is my guru, that to me more informs what is going to happen in the future than getting some historical report on how tragic this virus has affected our economy. >> so what's long-term and what's intermediate term when do you get back to doing what you would normally do will you take off a year >> well, one thing that's very important and something i

emphasized early on when we began to get this virus news, it's an important reason why the stock market has actually held up so well, is that more than 90% of the value of stocks is from earnings more than 12 months in the future these next 12 months are going to be disaster -- or is a disaster, but that -- stocks are the longest lived assets and more than 90% of their value is earnings from the second quarter of 2021 beyond now, what happens depends on therapeutics and vaccines, that's why any encouraging news on that is so great for the stock market, far more important than whether unemployment claims are going up or down or durable goods are going up or down we know this impact has been dramatic if we get therapeutics that

reduce the severity of this disease to a bad flu, or a vaccine that could inoculate the at-risk members of the community, again that reduce that fear, wow, i think 2021 can be a boom year with the liquidity that the fed is adding, unprecedented it could be a really good year >> so, two questions. you think when we were at the lows, a month, six weeks ago, you think that was the time that if you could have stomached it you should have been buying? and do you foresee any problem with the government and the fedex tfed extricating itself from this which could put a damper on what happens 12 to 18 months out?

>> i think the march low will be the low. the only thing is if there's a huge second wave in october, we have no therapeutics, no vaccine is available the second wave of the spanish flu was worst than the first i don't think that's going to happen that's a low probability it can't be taken off. what the statistic is that i look at very closely, this is related to your question, is the monetary expansion the monetary expansion, m1 money supply has gone up 19% in six weeks. that is unprecedented. that is more than the entire year that followed the lehman bankruptcy in september of 2008. in eight weeks we have expanded liquidity in our financial system by more than we did in an

entire year before that liquidity, once confidence begins to recover, wow, that is going to go into spending and i think that's going into the stock market and i think one reason the stock market is only 15% below the all-time high is they're looking at that liquidity and saying where is that going? >> so you think the lows are in. you think that it's possible that we see new highs within the next year and a half, two years? >> yeah, i do think it's possible with that liquidity, and i think there's going to be more inflation than we've seen in two decades i'm predicting 3%, 4% inflation. i know that seems impossible now because prices are going down so much again, when this liquidity has to find its -- someplace to go, it's all being repressed it reminds me of world war ii,

everyone has rationed the fed build up, a lot of liquidity, and it exploded in the post-war boom that we had that no one expected the world was thinking we're going back into depression, military expenditures will be way down, but that liquidity built up, had a consumer boom and was good for the stock market >> why wouldn't -- why wouldn't $10 billion -- 1$10 trillion balance sheet and a 25 trillion or whatever it's going to be in fiscal, it will be more than that by then, why wouldn't that when it's engendering inflation cause rates to go up to where we have a problem and a lot of times when you have interest payments that high, it puts a damper on economic growth >> i think the 40-year bull market in bonds, which is one of

the longest bull markets in world history, is over we saw the lows in march we'll never see those lows again. i think rates are going to go -- the fed will keep the short rate low for a long time. they're going to let inflation run beyond its 2% limit. the long rate will creep up 1%, we're not going back to the 16% rates of 1981, i'm not predicting hyper inflation or anything like that but a much more stronger push on this liquidity into the next few years, and, you know, moderate inflation is not that bad for the stock market it's terrible for the bond market, but not bad for the stock market >> jeremy siegel of wharton, thank you very much. good to see you. thanks to our jobs panel austin, i'm surprised i didn't hear from you. i mentioned you earlier in a

very, very affectionate way i guess nobody got to you about that austin, kate, glenn, mike, rick -- we'll get lunch and dinner let's do both. i can't spend enough time with you. thank you to becky and andrew, mac. have a great weekend stay safe. make sure you join us next week. "squawk on the street" coming up right now. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david, mike santoli cramer has the morning off it's a historic and tragic day in the history of the american economy as 20.5 million jobs were lost in april unemployment goes to 14. the worst since the great depression states like california begin reopening today. oil is up 2%