i guess nobody got to you about that austin, kate, glenn, mike, rick -- we'll get lunch and dinner let's do both. i can't spend enough time with you. thank you to becky and andrew, mac. have a great weekend stay safe. make sure you join us next week. "squawk on the street" coming up right now. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david, mike santoli cramer has the morning off it's a historic and tragic day in the history of the american economy as 20.5 million jobs were lost in april unemployment goes to 14. the worst since the great depression states like california begin reopening today. oil is up 2% yields are up.

20.5 in a data set that's never been more than 2 million in a single month, numbers we never expected to talk about >> no. the numbers are just completely and totally shocking not unexpected however given the carnage that's taken place in the economy over the last month as we locked everything down those lockdowns ending around the country. things starting to at least normalize in some states the question will be of the 18 million workers who describe themselves as a temporary layoff of that 20 million, how many really will get their jobs back is a key given the market's reaction today, there seems to be an expectation that most of them will that will remain a question over the next many months as we hope that the economy does start to return to some semblance of normalcy >> mike, lots of internals to

dig through here average hourly earnings show a chasm between lower-paid employees in the country and those with higher wages who, judging from the data, lost their jobs at a slower pace. >> yeah, no doubt. certainly -- first, it knocks everybody's idea of what a trend is -- there's no way to handicap the cadence of this number against what came before, what's likely to come next week i think the distribution of pain is very clear here, which is more hourly workers, no doubt about it, almost half the job losses on a net basis last month were from leisure, hospitality and retail we knew that the question turns to how fast those can be reabsorbed. i think continuing jobless claims, it's going to be one of those numbers thatgets a lot o attention as we go ahead because it will give you some sense of how many people are falling away as david was mentioning, those

people who characterize their layoff status as temporary, not every business decided to slow for the shutdown, and seeing the wear and tear of business failure, how that looks, whether there's a backstop for many of them that's the exercise we'll be in for for some time now. whereas the public markets can kind of lean on these massive companies with huge capitalizations that can handle this environment even as you have a lot of that damage occurring on a monthly basis >> david, you never thought -- >> go ahead, carl. >> go ahead, david i was going to say, you know, it's strange to go straight from that data to stories like shanghai disney, but the market, as mike points out, will lean on the effectiveness of policy response, hopes for health care solutions, therapeutics, vaccines, and signals that a "v" or a recovery of any kind can

happen anywhere else around the world and the selling out of tickets at shanghai disney for their monday opening is one more clue in that direction >> they're selling tickets at 30% capacitimey menso you have o adjust your expectations for how forcefully things will come back i know everyone will be remarking on this disconnect between how markets behaved and what this number represents. there's no getting away from that on a surface level. when the s&p went down 35% in a month and was trading at a 3 1/2 year low in late march, that was saying we'll get to 15% unemployme unemployment so six, seven weeks later, markets are in a different spot. >> yeah. carl, your point on disney is well taken there's demand in shanghai to mike's point they will not be able to in any way get near capacity, these parks. when they open up in the united

states, as bob chapek made clear on the conference call, they don't anticipate getting anywhere near 50% initially. it will be a slow ramp the questions with disney continue to be quite significant in terms of how long the leverage ratio with the company is so large right now between five and six times given the ebita that has come down dramatically one other thought on the jobs picture. this is the way a business, as hard as it may be to hear, but there are a number of companies that are using this as the opportunity that they were looking for to become more efficient. those jobs will not come back. you think of uber and what we heard from dara khosrowshahi earlier and on the conference call so many companies are look at this as that opportunity that maybe they would not have taken

full advantage of in the past to create efficiency. i wonder how much of those 18 million are part of that cohort that will not come back in terms of their jobs. >> that's an excellent point explains the optimism in stocks that we've seen. on that very point, let's get to ed yardini and david kelly ed, i want to ask you about what david just said, when people see carnage like the data this morning, they look at futures green. how much of that is explained by the stock market trying to sniff out improvements in operating leverage that come in crises >> i think that's part of it right now, of course, we're seeing traffic margins implode because that's what they do in recessions this is a depression-like recession that's concentrated in

the first, second and third quarters the market is focusing on trends that were underlying our economy even before the great virus crisis trends that have been accelerated by the gdc those are digital and biological technologies those companies have very large market cap in those areas, that's why those markets have done so well the other thing to consider is the market did bottom on march 23rd when the fed said the heck with the bazookas and helicopters, we'll load up b52s with cash and they carpet bombed the economy with this cash the liquidity is there and there's still over $1 trillion that was accumulated by the mad dash for cash during march that is just sitting there that is still, i think, providing a cushion for any

downside in the market >> david, are you of that view, and what about those who are saying the bond market is not ratifying what the stock market is telling us? >> there's a few different things first of all, i think the stock market will see some sort of correction here. there's too many people betting on a v-shaped recovery in the u.s. economy we think it's a u-shaped recession. this is carved out, the left wall of the u here i think the unemployment rate will come up more before it comes down and it comes down very slowly. i think we have to get into 2021 before we see a meaningful recovery i don't think that's built into the stock market as for the bond market, i don't think rates should go lower here, we're printing a huge amount of money to buy a huge amount of bonds. at some stage down the road the fed has to -- once we have a recovery going, the fed has to

raise rates. that makes interest rates at these level somewhat unappetizing i think the bond market and stock market are looking further ahead. i think the bond market can see at some stage there will be higher rates to pay for this i think the stock market is hoping this thing is not too long boy, is it deep. i don't think the stock market is quite reflecting the depth of the recession that we're seeing now. >> david, on the broader economy, capex is something you have certainly focused on in part i know we're in a consumer-led economy, but we've had a parade of ceos come on our air virtually every day, all of whom are cutting their capex. some significantly what impact does that have, and how do you see that playing out? >> it takes this unusual virus recession and makes it look more

traditional. you can see that in the durable goods order, how the orders collapsed at the end of march. we'll see more problems there. it does extend this. it means the federal and in particular the federal government have to try to reengineer a recovery in the economy sometim sometimal simuls getting past the virus now because of the deeper recession, the global recession, you are seeing the problems with capex, problems with profitability, companies going bankrupt and it will be more work to get this economy back to full employment. most of the jobs lost in april, we will recover within a year of a vaccine, it will be a long time, many years before we're back to where we were even in february in terms of the unemployment rate.

>> we're all used to the idea that the stock market looks ahead, tries to figure out where earnings are going and can try to get through this period, and also that the market rotates towards the areas that are more resilient. overall earnings, when do you think s&p earnings can get back to last year's levels? we're looking at something like an 18% or 20% decline calendar year 2020. when do they go back and what does that mean for the valuation of the overall market? >> let me take this one first, then ed can add on i don't think we'll make it in 2021 2 2021 will be the first year of the recovery from the virus, but in 2022, we can get back to where we were in 2019.

that's what makes the stock market valuations not seem ridiculous i think it's possible, but not next year. the i think we have to wait one more year. >> morgan stanley did a survey of cfos and coos yesterday about the second half, and they asked about top priorities number one was maintain investment in technology, 54%. maintaining employee count was much lower at 33%. is that going to drive your stock selection? >> i think it's driving the market's performance ever since we bottomed on march 23rd, we have seen the nasdaq on fire, technology stocks on fire. we know technology, health care and the s&p 500 account for 40% of the market cap of the total index. the market figured out that the place to be is where the trends are going to take us at a faster

pace a lot of them are in technology and in health care because of the zoom technology, we're kind of stepping over each other, but i did want to make a comment on the capital spending idea i think a lot of supply chains are going to come back home. particularly in manufacturing of drugs and maybe some of the more sensitive issues of technology with the rush to national security and that's actually going to be a good business for a lot of technology companies, a lot of industrial companies, to help everybody bring these supply chains back home for security purposes i think that should lead to job creation i think it leads to more capital spending and that may turn out to be one of the biggest priorities coming out of this. it's not just about what ceos have as a priority but politically speaking some of these issues on the trade side have turned into national security issues, which will put

a tremendous pressure and incentive to stimulate those areas of the economy >> that causes inflation, doesn't it that's got to add a lot of costs conceivably overall. >> well, it would if it wasn't for technology i think technological innovation is the key to allowing us to bring supply chains in critically important national security industries back to the u.s., like drugs, like telecommunications, semiconductors and the like. we're good at all these areas, we have to bring them back home given the uncertainties that were created i think we'll go from just in time inventories to just in case inventories. and the reason why is we have technological innovations in 3-d manufacturing, in artificial

intelligence, robotics all those technologies will allow us to bring tech manufacturing back mother's day is coming up here, i think we are going to see something to the effect of making america manufacture again, and i think that's the trend that's going to be very investable >> ed, david, appreciate it. thanks for helping our viewers understanding the number better and the implications we will take a quick break on the other side, we'll talk more about what's happening with shanghai disney on monday. futures are green. we're back in a minute

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the street." disney reported earnings earlier this week, a focus for investors is the company's theme parks, an area that lost over $1 billion in a very short period of time, perhaps as much as a billion a month. one that's opening is shanghai disney eunice yoon has the latest on that expected opening in a couple days. eunice >> thank you very much, david. there's a lot of excitement

about it chinese media say the tickets for the first day sold out in three minutes, and for the week in just under an hour. shanghai disneyland was a major topic of discussion today on social media in china. one thing that people said the most is they want to get a ticket because they wanted to be able to go to the park and not stand in line. one of the ways in which the company is going to try to keep everybody safe, including visitors and staff, is to limit the capacity other measures that the company plans to put in place to enter everyone will have to go through a temperature check and show a government issued health code, which is common here in china. visitors will be spaced out for rides and restaurants. and everyone will be required to wear a mask. disney says the chinese government has asked that attendance be capped at 30%. the company says that it plans to keep the capacity well under that as it adjusts for the reopening during the next couple

of weeks most of the attractions are going to remain open to the public except for somewhere there is a lot of interaction for people in close quarters such as the theaters, for example. also the parades, and the fireworks display are not going to be there. instead they'll be replaced because the company wants to avoid a lot of crowds. one thing that might be disappointing for kids is you can't get a close-up photo with your favorite character. instead, for mickey, they're going to be -- all the characters will be there but they'll be social distancing as well you plight have to settle for a hand wave. carl >> that's going to be the hard part, making sure it's disney, the disney we know thank you. we'll stay in close contact with you come monday morning. eunice yoon in beijing more on this morning's jobs number and the week at large with rick santelli hi, rick

>> hi, carl. yes. the jobs number was predicted accurately because whether it's the government or we know the reason behind government shutdown, the coronavirus globally, everybody is pretty much idling in place that number, well, maybe the market liked it because it could have been higher my read is it's more the stories like eunice had. the possibility of things opening up, the tickets selling out in three minutes the stock market being up may not tell us what the future holds but it tells us people investing, maybe there's a higher economic class, maybe it's not middle class and down, it's middle class and up they believe all of us will eventually be buying durable goods and having jobs and buying their wares. look at a two-day of two-year note yields, they have gotten down 11 basis points before rebounding fed fund futures, looking at december 2020 and beyond they're

trading 100 or higher, that implies negative overnight rates. this is the big story. we continue to see so much buying in the short maturities, yes, it's steepening the curve but it harbors negative sentiment. negative rates won't be a good thing in the united states, even though it's market driven, it's on the backs of trying to anticipate what federal reserve and monetary policy will be. the only way to negate that is for jay powell and company to address that if you look at the dollar index, this is really fascinating we are now in our eighth week where at least one day in the last eight weeks we settled at 100 or higher in the index dollar index remains very firm especially after the jobs number david, back to you >> rick, thank you carrier corporation reporting its first quarter since being spun off from the old united technologies. dave gitlin will join us in a

cnbc exclusive interview more "squawk on the street" coming up.

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. the jobs number for april, 20.5 million jobs lost unprecedented really on the other hand, more earnings are building a theme of stabilization. we'll get to roku, uber and more when "squawk on the street" continues on this friday (soft music)

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that jobs number notwithstanding, futures numbers are positive, and it brings to mind the dynamic we've seen the last few days where stocks are higher but the a.d. line withers throughout the course of the session and makes you wonder about the sustainability of this -- whether we call it a rally or not >> yeah. the rally certainly since march has flattened out. that pattern the last few days, you have this pop open of 1% or more the last few days the high for the day was around the 2,900 level. we got above there last week by a couple percent it seems like there's a struggle to get an impetus beyond that number right now also just some interesting dynamics below the surface as you mentioned, some wear and

tear on the numbers over the last week or so. but also you had this extreme out performance, everybody has been acknowledging, celebrating, denigrating of the huge mega cap growth stocks, then yesterday you see this quick mean reversion, and the rubber band seems stretched too tight, and the beaten down stuff like banks, energy outperform that's the churn right now bigger picture, i think the question is, you know, given there's still this stubbornly pessimistic sentiment and positioning out there, how much more can that fuel -- cushion the down side or fuel further rises here, even when nobody has good clarity about where we're headed in terms of the macro, except it's going to get better from off the levels. >> yeah. go ahead, carl >> we talked the nasdaq going

positive for the year yesterday. this morning maybe people will talk about the vix with a 2 handle for the first time since march 3rd. >> yeah. the s&p is at the same level as a week ago and the vix is down 10 points. the s&p is at the same level as a year ago the nasdaq is up 13.5% from where it was a year ago. you can talk about pessimism, what does that say >> very true it says there's a composition effect here. the market inside of it is not saying things are just as good as they were last year they're saying we can hide in the durable businesses nasdaq is flat year to date, absolutely 40% of the nasdaq are the big five stocks. we're not talking about thousands of stocks.

we're not talking about the wisdom of crowds saying what the economy will look like we're saying these financial assets attached to these cash flows are right now in this environment worth owning at these levels i totally get your point i would say the s&p 500 closed yesterday also at that january 2018 high. you are going back over two years in terms of when we first got to this area >> yeah. >> at the big board, kevin fitsgibbons. at the nasdaq, kingsoft cloud. if jim were here, he would probably repeat what he said several days now, that the pandemic effect on the economy is a small business story. we're here covering public large cap, mid cap companies that have access to capital and will probably use this crisis to

consolidate at the expense of small business >> that's true as i said earlier, pursue efficiencies that perhaps in another environment they didn't feel as urgent to pursue those efficiencies may result in further job losses or not bringing back the people who have already been laid off you're right we talk so often during the course of this crisis about what behaviors will be like will people resume they'ir typil activities it's hard to say i know one large restaurateur who has a number of different price point restaurants in states across the country, they're not seeing the return in traffic in those states that have opened up at least not yet they can only be at 25% capacity but, in fact, they're not getting anywhere near that at this point is that inridicative of anything we can see longer term and people willing to go back to these businesses that we're

talking about? unclear. but it will continue to be a key questio question >> uber is up 7% of course much wider than expected loss than we thought. ridership down 5%. dara khosrowshahi did talk this morning on "squawk on the street" about what he called a tale of two quarters take a listen. >> on the eats side, we're seeing that business actually substantially accelerating that was a big business for us that was growing quickly in the 50% range. in april we saw the growth outside of india, earn around 89%as more and more people sheltered at home, and as more and more restaurants signed up for our service, and delivery is a very, very growth area for us. >> another disconnect, david you lay off 3,700 workers, the

next day your stock is at a high since march 5th. >> and they have had to push out their plan to get to profitability, but not as far as many analysts and investors expected would be the case for uber again, 3,700 jobs, as you say. investors are aplayeding what they felt in the past was uber's reluctance to cut back in certain markets where they were continuing to lose significant amounts of money this crisis, of course, has forced them to do that so they're being strangely enough rewarded to a certain extent in the stock market as a result of that mike, you mentioned the big names powering the s&p microsoft, for example, up slightly but it did hit a 1$1.4 trillion market value earlier i'm not sure, that may be a new high >> yeah. that -- maybe -- i don't know

what the share count looked like didn't the stock get up to the 190s in february it's very close. it was fascinating yesterday, those big guys underperformed a little bit. you know, microsoft was up like 0.7% so to take the day off it added $10 billion in market value. that's just the way that this sort of flow has been taking these stocks it's interesting when you talk about uber there always was, even when the economy was doing well at full employment, that whole category of stocks where it wasn't about earnings today, we're looking many years out the fact we're not having earnings any time soon doesn't effect that much the bullish case on uber such as it is now or on the cloud kosoftware stoc or on roku which is backing off today or on peloton. market is happy to play with them meantime their version of defense is microsoft, as you

say, 1$1.4 trillion. i think that's the way the market has been held together here it's a good explanation of why we're sitting here but that idea that it's now okay for silicon valley to lay people off. uber is doing it airbnb is doing it that's now a little bit of a story of rushing to profitability or margins what does it mean, though, for the vitality of the economy? that's -- you know, i think the market is willing to bet to get lucky on that front in the short-term, but it's totally unclear as to whether it's overplayed that hand >> interesting i'm trying to keep a list of companies that have announced reopenings or restarts for the month. the big ones, ford, toyota on the tape now in europe, they'll open more plants on monday we know about store reopenings, macy's, gap, kohl's, rite-aid. now boeing's ceo is on the tape saying the 737 max factory will

come back online this month. we talked yesterday to ratheon about the challenges when you have so many planes parked in the desert, what will the demand be for a new one >> yeah. and we talked to larry culp last week about something similar both of those guys are in constant contact with boeing, given what an important customer they are we can point back to the $25 billion that boeing raised in the credit markets, roughly the spread of 450 basis points over the corresponding treasury maybe that was the bottom. i don't know we do and should look to the credit markets for signs of health or weakness in these companies that are struggling to maintain and implement or actually add to their liquidity.

>> for sure. if you think about what scenario was being discounted when the stock market was at its lows in march, it was this head long default cycle, it was going to pull in lots of companies. ford and gm have managed to raise new debt at manageable rates and build up their cushion. that was after the fed said they might intervene in the corporate bond market. you mentioned boeing there's still very active default cycle going on for now it's mostly in the structurally impaired areas of the economy that we knew were a bit touch and go whether it's retail, some energy and things like that that team will be with us. it probably doesn't seem right now that it's going to claim big disruptive, systemic victims at least that's what the credit markets have enabled right now that's a big story arguably high yield conditions have not improved that much in the last few weeks as the stock

market has had a good run. maybe there's a bit of slight disagreement there the back drop is credit markets have given permission for the stock market to say we won't have that real downward spiral type scenario very soon. >> yeah. you do hear the other thing -- go ahead, carl, sorry. sorry, i was going to say, speaking of the consumer effect on things like travel, royal caribbean comes out and says bookings for 2021 are within historical ranges, which i guess is a surprise to some. and norwegian talked to jim on "mad money" last night take a quick listen. >> we expect to sail sometime in 2020 it would be irresponsible to give you a specific datement we have to gain clearance from the cdc and other government agencies

we're working hard shoulder-to-shoulder with them to develop enhanced protocols of every kind you can think of. >> so, david, didn't mean to step on you. royal caribbean up 4% off of a much lower base than prior to the crisis >> and norwegian cruise lines, only a few days earlier they were talking about concerns, and then able to raise 400 million bucks at only 7% coupon, it looks like they may be in much better position that whipsawed people as well in terms of the performance of some of these stocks. one day you're giving concern warnings, two days later you are able to access the capital markets in some fashion or at least private money to help sure you up >> there's an intense wave of short covering that washed

through the market the last couple of days that reflects a little bit of that type of whipsaw. >> so, guys, we'll kick off the session here well in the green just about every dow component is green with the exception of ibm. let's get to bob pisani. good morning >> good morning. happy friday good week overall. we're up almost 3% strong start, but we're off of the highs there. it's nice to see some key components that have been real laggards this week leading this morning. banks, this is a really big one today. the yields spiked when the jobs report came out. one little bit of good news in an awful report. that's been a terrible group that's leading energy has been good industrials. tech is lagging today. that's interesting because generally tech has been a leader throughout the week. if you look at the winners this week, i would have to say online, if you're ordering stuff online, xweb, the spider internet etf, this is a good one

to watch, this is almost a v-shape if you look at it on a multiple level not just amazon and google we've seen twilio, etsy, zillow, ebay, snap, all of them have come back. anything you can order online, generally that has done much better this week that's a good sign i mentioned the banks. did not like the action of the banks this week until the jobs report came out here wells fargo was down 8% going in this week. the regionals like zion's, down 3%, 4%, 5% you can see that spiked a bit today. you want to watch that, there's no leadership at all in the banks. we line up the companies that are pulling guidance that are out there. we're at 70% through earnings season hostess brands, pfizer, colony capital, regency center, fleetcor zillow did not report any guidance at all. but a steady stream.

close to 40% of the company's reporting not providing any guidance at all. one interesting thing is the dispute about where the bottom is there's a lot of different opinions on whether we're at a bottom or not. uber saying they were off the bottom siemens talked about q3 bottom at the earliest out there. live nation has no prediction on a return to normal in 2020 they hope to return to normal in 2021 tripadvisor said revenues are continuing to decline. we had an ipo tale kingsoft cloud, china's internet cloud services provider, they priced nicely. 30 million shares at 17. finally, art's back. 11:00. we'll be talking with art cashin and his predictions on what we'll be seeing in the following week david, back to you

>> bob, that's good news glad to hear art is back thank you, bob pisani. shares of carrier are up almost 5% this morning after the company reported its first quarter as a newly public entity having been spun off from the old united technologies not long ago. david gitlin is the company's ceo and he joins us now. very nice to have you with us, david. >> thank you, david. >> want to start off on a theme that i've referenced earlier in the show we see it from so many companies, cutting capex you have done that as well cutting capex by 40%, 50%. reducing it from 350 million to 400 million. give me some sense as to why you made that decision and how you figure out what the right number is when you think about cuts you can make >> yeah. we believe in this environment it's prorimportant to be pruden. we reduced it from our initial plan of 350 to 400 down to 200

to 225 keep in mind, typically we are at that 250 level. we're almost commensurate with prior years. we decided that we'll cut everything that's discretionary. things like we were going to consolidate erp systems around the world. that was pushed to the right we have a lot of investments we pushed aside for automation. it's not the right climate to have industrial engineers on site we pushed some automation projects to the right. they will come back. it's easier for an outfielder to run forward than backwards as the year progresses, we see the economic situation lightening up a bit, we will pull some of the capex we push into next year pull it back into this year. we decided to be aggressive in the environment to preserve cash >> right 80% of your sales are in europe and the u.s. one would expect that things are tough right now, both in residential and throughout your other businesses what are you seeing and how much transparency do you have in

terms of what your business will look like a few months out >> we saw in the u.s. and europe as orders for the u.s. were down about 5%, and orders in europe were about 10% so the crisis really started in china. it hit china very, very hard china was very much a v-shape for us it came down aggressively, but recovered very aggressively. china orders were down 50%, 40% for the entire first quarter when you fast forward in china, we were back at 2019 levels getting back into april. a steep decline, a steep recovery it feels to us like the decline in the u.s. and europe will be shallower, but the recovery will be longer. so what we saw in april was that orders in the u.s. were down 25%, they were down 30% in april in europe. we are starting to see some areas within europe show signs of recovery. germany is starting to feel

good italy and spain are coming back. france is very slow. very slow recovery there 80% of the construction projects in france are still shut down. it's going to be a mixed bag in europe and you'll probably see the same in the u.s. with different states coming back online at different times. hopefully as we get into the end of this quarter into the next, we'll see those recoveries kick in >> yeah. specific to housing, given it's an important part of what you do, we saw housing starts drop dramatically how much are you impacted by that again, what are your expectations on the residential market in the u.s. >> we believe new housing starts will be down about 10%, 20% this year you look back in april, they were 3.8 million americans that did not pay their mortgage you will see some deferral for

new housing starts when we look at our residential business in hvac, 80% of the business is replacement. when a system breaks, there's going to be pent-up demand, especially if you hit key heat waves. you will see some demand for that replacement cycle we believe that will be down about 15% as well. but we believe that it's going to be a push out rather than elimination of demand. >> right not to mention a lot of people are staying home more than they would toypically i guess they might be running their air conditioners in a more aggressive fashion than has been the case in the past >> yeah. i also believe when they break and they're quarantined, they will want to replace them. >> they are. without a doubt. you know, you run factories around the world, assembly lines. i'm curious, david, how are you dealing with social distancing on an assembly line where somebody is putting together one of these kinds of systems?

is it an issue for you is it something that you're able to deal with is it taking efficiency away from the business? >> there's no doubt it's causing us some sheen cefficiency issue. if you picture a residential hvac plant where we have a moving belt, often those technicians are shoulder-to-shoulder we have gone to multi shifts, staggered people to either side of the belt. put plexiglass between the various technicians. i think what you'll see is a combination between robotics and human interaction. so you probably -- where you had people spaced out three feet and you want to get them spaced out six feet, probably the spacing in between you will see, i think, a trend towards robotics overall. not to replace the lumoom human interaction, but to supplement

it i would say the fixes we put in place to increase social distancing i would describe as short-term to make sure we can keep our plants running. as we get through this pandemic, we'll come out with more sustained approaches >> interesting finally speaking finally speaking of the pandemic and impacts, or positive impacts it might have on your business, there are a lot of buildings that may be looking to increase or upgrade their filtration systems. i can imagine restaurants, perhaps, that want to put a sign in the door that says our air is filtered all the time. is that a real opportunity for carrier? >> absolutely. i think carrier will lead the way. as we transition, what you would characterize as sick buildings to healthy buildings, a big part is ventilation part is in the ventilation system one of the things we said on our earnings call is we're putting the v back in hvac with a real focus on ventilation

many of the filtration systems cannot filter con tom nataminana smaller level. we have electrostatic systems for homes and other types of hepa filters for buildings you're going to see a lot better filtration systems air changes per hour is a key part for buildings the room i'm in right now the air changes per hour in this room should be about ten and buildings around the world don't have the right kind of frequent ventilation you'd expect out of a building cleaning duct work ducts ought to get cleaned every three to five years to avoid bacteria buildup or mold, and most buildings don't have the frequency of duct cleanliness. i think as you see people go back into restaurants and commercial buildings, there's going to be a lot more attention on am i in a healthy building. you're going to see that

companies like carrier will step up and be part of the solution to create the healthy buildings we expect. >> david, we're out of time today. but very happy you were able to join us after your first report as a quarterly report as a public company david, look forward to having you back in the future >> thanks for having me. all right. let's take a quick break with the s&p up about 1.1%. we have a lot more "squawk on the street" coming right back.

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getting more indications of how flying will change for americans here on out.

phil has more on that. >> good morning. this has been debated and now it's going to happen the first u.s. airline to say that it will institute temperature checks for all passengers and crew members before they can get on board, it was announced last night that frontier airlines, we talked with the ceo on our 7:00 p.m. show, he said we're going to do this this is what passengers want it will start june 1st this is how it's going to work when you show up at the gate after you've gone through security, they will take a thermal temperature of you if you are 104 or higher, you're going to be flagged. they'll pull you aside and say let's take minutes to make sure this was not an inaccurate reading. maybe you were running to the gate if you test you a second time, when they do, if it's 100.4 or higher, they will work with you to get you to where you need to go and rebook you. the passenger levels, we check this every day with the tsa, there has been a slight up tick. but let's be clear even though the numbers

yesterday are the highest in three or four weeks, it's down 93% con compared to a year ago, and this brings up the question, what will airlines and airports have to do to reassure passengers this is going to be an ongoing debate over the next several weeks as you look at shares of the airline stocks a lot of people are saying whose responsibility should it be to test passengers or check passenger temperatures should it be the airlines as frontier is doing? should it be the airports? should it be tsa this will be an ongoing debate, especially if people actually do clamor for the temperature checks for people who are flying >> really quick, phil, i mean, that's at the gate what about everything you go through prior to getting to the gate >> that's -- and that's why when we talked with the ceo of frontier last night, he said look, do i think it probably should happen at the airport when you first get there yes, but we're not going to wait for that to be decided we want to give people reassurance everybody has been

checked when they get on board a plane. you bring up a great point, carl would it make more sense when you go through tsa securityor when you first get to the airport which is another issue in terms of cost and logistics, how do you set that up all of this needs to be worked out by the industry, and i suspect at this point it may ultimately fall on the airlines. >> all right interesting. a brave new world as we're getting used to. thanks, phil, on aviation this morning. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen and david faber. markets are higher s&p 2911 now more data on the way wholesale trade. let's get to santelli. >> yes this is a march final on inventories. originally released mid month at minus 1% they're revised to down .8% that's the weakest since september of 2011. trade sales, wholesale trade

sales, this number is fresh. no mid month read. minus 5 .2 % and that is the second worst read ever. the worst read was minus 8.7 in november of 2008 the series started in 1992 we're not seeing a huge market movement sur face it to say a lot of traders are paying very close attention to the very low rates on two-year notes and the fact that deferred fed fund contracts are implying negative overnight rates from the fed sara, back to you. >> rick, thank you let's hit the big story of the morning. a record 20.5 million jobs lost in the month of april. unemployment rates soaring to levels we haven't seen since the great depression steve liesman joins us with a closer look. now that you've had time to dig into the report, what are the big take aways >>. >> you can't stop shaking your head at the report the numbers speak for themselves

as far as the stark nature of the decline in employment and the increase in the unemployment rate here are the numbers we're talking about. 20.5 million jobs lost 14 .7% unemployment rate average hourly earnings ticking up to 4.7% this almost surely the result of lost low wage jobs or the predominant loss of low wage jobs. the work force declining by 6.4 million. that's an ominous sign that people are saying they're not in the work force a good sign could be in the temporary layoffs which is 18 million, and the hope is that at least jobs come back very quickly. often in recessions, temporary lows come back to work looking at losses by sector where you might expect them. the industries hardest hit, industry hospitality, 7.7 million. education and health, a lot of doctor's offices are closed. retail, and manufacturing. some of the commentary from bmo, the jobs report from hell.

one writes april may be it for job losses going forward with the country starting to reopen, but there's a different idea from eon shepherdson who says it's catastrophe enumerated. we expect a further 10 to 12 million in drop. another writes the first cut at the estimating the damage to the u.s. labor market understates. some indicate it could be 20%. the unemployment rate for those without a college degree was 21%. sorry, with less than a high school education was 21% up from 6.8. those with a bachelor's degree or higher, just 8.4 %. there's the value of education it shows you how the job cuts happen it's a long road back. we could go up to 20% the next time in the may jobs report. >> i thought some of the other breakouts were interesting women hit harder than men.

hispanics and blacks hit harder than whites and asians there's so much in this report, obviously, with everyone feeling the pain steve, how do you think about the fact that a majority, a vast majority of these job losses were characterized as furloughs or that people who think they're going to go back to work, how realistic is that? well, look, i think there's two aspects to this. nobody knows more about the extent to which their job loss is temporary or permanent than the employer or employee in that respect. on the other hand, hope springs eternal. there's two waves we're following. the first is a shutdown wave that happened because of concerns about the virus some of it government mandated some of it consumers and average americans just did on their own. they decided either not to go to work or not to go to the mall. there's a second wave here we're watching it's a knock on economic effect wave that's what we may see in may. and sara, i've been troubled

that the jobless numbers are still high 3 million. that's an enormous number of jobless claims it suggests there's a knock-on effect in the economy that's going to have to play through before we go to the up side and seeing positive jobs numbers here that could be maybe more than a couple months out. >> yeah. we hold our breath on thursdays. steve, thank you steve liesman. for more on the shockingly bad jobs numbers, let's bring in dianne swank and brent schutte diane, what were your key take aways looking at on one side the ugliness and the shockingly horrific nature of the scale of job losses and on the other, the fact that the -- it didn't change the tone in financial markets? >> you know, it really is interesting. i still get the sense many investors are whistling by the

co-vid grid guard. that's disturbing. what i see in the numbers even though we saw the high number, almost 79%, 78.3% on temporary layoff i don't think all the workers will be called back. we will see some with the payroll protection plan, but there's no way that many of these that are hardest hit in the food services industry, leisure and hospitality, even health care and education are going to be able to -- and retail are going to be able to come back to the level of activity that they did prior to the crisis, especially over the summer, and as we get into winter months, given that we'll still be social distancing also many large employers have pulled back and are having workers continue to work from home right through the summer months until the fall. that's going to mean no one is downtown in the downtown areas to go to restaurants, even though they can only open partially over the summer.

and then you've got the additional hit of many companies have cancelled meetings and pulled back on travel through year-end which is much of the leisure and hospitality industry relies upon. although these are temporary layoffs, i fear about how many of these will become much more permanent over the summer months even if we get a temporary reprieve in response to the ppp loans over the next two months >> so what happens when those ppp loans run out? because there is an expiration date, and when the expanded unemployment benefits that were part of the cares act also run out? then what does this economy look like >> well, then it's even more disastrous we've already seen food lines in the miles. we know that the snap, what were once called food stamps did not get included in the cares act, and so you're talking about a much higher level of unemployment, and economic pain than what we see in the overall economic numbers, and much less

aid, and i think that's something that we need to see congress focusing on now is to not sort of wait and see what's going to happen. we need to be preemptive we do know the unemployment expansions to furloughed workers and the self-employed, that needs to be extended over the summer, and that's something that they need to start doing and thinking about now it expires in july right around the time not only we see the ppp loans expire and layoffs pick up from there, but also layoffs at the state and local level which were already extraordinarily large, two-thirds in education, almost a million jobs lost there in the last month those are going to really hit hard over the summer in education and first responders if we don't see transfers of the state, because many state and local governments start their fiscal year on july 1st so i'm very worried about the need for continued aid and relief out there, and then a stimulus bill on the other side of it. and i'm hopeful that congress will come up with something and i'm worried they won't come up

with enough and they'll wait too long >> meanwhile, diane, people were raising thr eyebrows at fed funds futures yesterday. the prospect of negative rates now kevin has set is on the tick this morning saying if the fed decides to go there, he would support it, although he reiterated the fed that has independence how much of that is on your radar this week? >> you know, it's interesting. actually, the president of the philadelphia fed did a speech at the council on foreign relations, the chicago council yesterday. it was fabulous. he addressed directly the issue of negative rates and said how inappropriate it would be to do negative rates in response to this particular crisis there may be and he has a high threshold for negative rates in response to a normal recession down the road, but he couldn't see how negative rates would reopen businesses that closed because of this. one of the things the fed is worried about is the number of bankruptcies over the next year

and how much consolidation we see and negative rates don't change that equation the fed looked at negative rates as part of their review on what they would use as tools going forward, and negative rates were low on the list. their efficacy abroad has been limited and mixed bag. and especially in the united states, they could have a particular blow to the banking system and money market funds, so this really does not look like the best tool for the fed to use they have other tools and there was a plea by the philadelphia fed that echoed jay powell's plea to congress for more fiscal stimulus, relief is how he termed it. i think that's where we need to go >> let's bring in brent schutte this morning as well brent, diane has been talking about obviously horrific job numbers, hit to purchasing power, bankruptcies, we're getting to a point where the bulls are making a stand in ways

they haven't in a couple of weeks. how do you explain that to people >> well, i think we're looking at yesterday's news. and so i shared some of diane's concerns i want to point out back in the great recession, for example, the unemployment -- the height of the jobs was at 136 on november of 2007 we didn't trough for two years and it took nearly seven years after the peak to get the jobs back but it didn't mean you didn't want to own the market to me the market is more reflecting that we're beginning to climb out of the economic valley it's going to be uneven and dependent on how the virus proceeds, but we are starting to climb out. the market is looking forward and suggesting that perhaps as we climb out of the economic valley, better days are ahead from the standpoint of employment numbers, better days are ahead from the standpoint of gdp, and we don't have to recoup all that for the market to move

higher that's point one point two is i think the market does reflect current realities you have a few stocks that have held up the s&p 500. so they have largely been virus proof. think of the faangs, for example. the more economically sensitive side, they're down 24, 25% i think this is reality in the market i think that's the comment that people are missing what's happening in the market. that's where i think the differences are. as the economy recovers, i do think the other names will continue to do better. >> so i was just going to ask, brent, how you're telling people to position right now. if you are looking ahead to better days, where do you see the best values? >> yeah. i think from a valuation standpoint, i know valuation is imperfect and certainly in this environment, timing is tough because the virus is controlling a lot of the narrative about what everybody has mentioned anybody's economic forecast is based upon how the virus proceeds but there's better opportunities

in u.s. mid and small over longer periods of time i'm not suggesting you move completely out of what's worked, u.s. large caps but if you look down the road, the names assuming the virus does not continue to have us in our houses the next couple years, i think the names will do better down the road. >> what about energy i'm asking because everybody hates it it's the best performing sector so far this week, up 6. 5 %. there's a feeling if economies start opening up, crude oil is going to be a pretty good barometer. it's been such depressed levels and is starting to perk up on the idea that there's finally going to be some demand. >> yeah. i look back to the past recession. i hate to keep going back there, but think about the past recession. what kind of led us into that? i would imagine some would say it was a combination of real estate consumer overspending and the banks. you want to know what led it out

for the next one or two years? those sectors. they did the best. i'm not suggesting everybody buy energy stocks, but a lot of times what does best coming out of it is where the most bankruptcies are or the most damage is done because the companies that survive often earn above costed capital type returns because there isn't much competition and so survivors typically do work out longer term or more near term coming out the opposite side of this. >> and finally, diane, wanted to get your thoughts on a sector or industry breakdown on jobs and where the most permanent job cuts will be we saw the most layoffs in hospitality, a lot in food services you look at challenged industries like retail or energy how do you think about where the jobs come back and where they don't? >> well, it's pretty obvious we're weather the least risky and easiest to open, manufacturing is one of the easiest to open, although the

auto industry will face struggles given problems in mexico right now and the u.s. mca, the nafta agreement, north american production if we don't open the border with mexico at the same time as with canada, there will be supply chain disruptions. but manufacturers, large manufacturers have already reopened in the hot zones including wuhan. they know the protocols and can ramp up more quickly they stagger shifts and make the workplace more safe with the exception being meat and food processing plants. they're seeing agriculture as a place to ramp up there's not a lot of jobs there, and professional services, a lot of work can be done from home. they can ramp up as the economy is ramping up without having people return to workplaces which could have some permanent issues in the overall commercial construction industry. risky industries right up there on top discretionary consumer spending, travel, tourism, restaurants, all the public places, anything art and entertainment, also

health care and education. education is really going to be a tough road in the fall do we reopen schools if we do not reopen k through 12 schools, it's going to be hard for many workers to get day care for their children to return to work so that's a very hard nut to crack. also education in the higher education level. we're seeing many layoffs and furloughs, quote unquote, there as well. i think it's going to be a very uneven reopening and those hit hardest will remain closed longer >> yeah. diane swonk, brent schutte, thank you for joining us on this jobs friday. >> all right we're at 24200 as the cyclicals lead boeing, jpm, s&p 2916 is the highs for the month as we're about one week into may. we're back in a minute you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out.

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retailers have a new task in the wake of the pandemic, convincing shoppers it's safe to come in and figure out how to manage their potential fear. we are joined with more on the path forward for the retail industry >> good morning, david think about the millions of dollars that have been invested in the in-store experience but as retailers reopen, a lot of it is out the window. the goal is to keep workers and shoppers safe. it's going to be a new experience and the retail workers are going to be the enforcers of this as they try to manage the fear.

the first job, of course, is to convince shoppers that it's safe it's the a harder task that even essential retailers. they're seeing fewer more consolidated trips than ever, and surveys show a high level of fear about returning to instore shopping of all formats. shoppers will find a greeter at kohl's wearing a mask. target and walmart have been open and workers have had to enforce social distancing which doesn't always work with anxious shoppers plexi glass separating workers and shoppers is going to be standard macy's is quarantining inventory for 24 hours kohl's is holding returns for at least 48 hours and employees are being asked to keep track of this target current sli closed off fitting room access. gap is also closing the restrooms. macy's is demonstrating makeup

application with paper so far everyone is adjusting well the department store says our customers have responded well, and we're seeing encouraging gifting trends in our survey work, customers feel confident in the new health and safety standards retail employees didn't take the jobs to be in store police officers or enforcers of public health standards it's an awful lot to ask back over to you it's fascinating i had to notice that facebook said they will allow most of their employees to stay at home, work from home through the end of the year. so to the degree people are out shopping again, what categories does it affect in terms of apparel? >> absolutely. i mean, isn't that such an interesting question i think when you -- i'm thinking about things like kid's clothes. what's going to happen with back to school? is there going to be a back to school kids, though, they grow. maybe you have to buy some

amount of clothes anyway, but are we going to be needing dresses for weddings will school dances come back if the fall is back for students? i think there's going to be a lot of categories that are going to be really challenged for a very long time kohl's ceo told me yesterday they've seen strong trends in areas like home and active for both the online trends and the customers that are utilizing that curb side pickup. i can't imagine those trends will fall off too much -- as other trends pick up it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. there's just things you don't need look at the unemployment rate today. i mean, how much spending are we really going to be doing that we don't have to? >> yeah. and even those with jobs, saving more we'll have an impact on purchasing over the next several quarters talk to you soon going to be a huge story, retail, as stores open up next week markets riding close to session highs. back in a moment after my dvt blood clot, i wondered.

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featuring the emmy award-winning voice remote. access to your favorite apps, including netflix, prime video, youtube and hulu. all without changing passwords and inputs. the most 4k content and movies and shows on any screen. the best entertainment experience all in one place. welcome back with stocks up more than 1%, time for our etf spotlight. today we look at the chip sector, ticker smh, set to break a two week losing streak broadcom, n vid ya, qualcomm the sector is down

the dow up all 30 dow stocks up are higher. adding the most to the dow stocks, boeing, dow, home depot also doing quite well. we'll take aui cmeia qckomrcl break. stay with us

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reliability and security. and enough bandwidth to handle all your connected devices. voice solutions like remote call forwarding and readable voicemail. and safe, convenient installation. when every connection counts, you can count on us. get the connectivity your business needs. call today. comcast business. good morning welcome back here's what's happening at this hour one in four americans say they are unlikely to get vaccinated against the coronavirus once it's available the poll from abcipsos said the found equal numbers of republicans and democrats. roads have been closed temporarily in seattle in april as part of a plan to increase space for people to exercise and get out of the house safely. it will help the long-term fight

against covid-19, the city says. a german intelligencerepor is casting doubt on secretary of state mike pompeo's allegation that the coronavirus originated in a chinese lab the german magazine reports germany's spy agency asked members of a u.s.-led intelligence agency, alliance for evidence, to support pompeo's statement but none of the five countries provided that evidence the magazine said the report concluded the u.s. accusations were a deliberate attempt to divert away from president trump's, quote, own failures as always, for more on the coverage, head to cnbc.com back to you, sara. >> sue, thank you. goldman sachs chief economist joins us on the other side of the break as we try to make sense of the 20.5 million americans that lost their job in e nth of april

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find out why more "squawk on the street" is coming up.

if you're just joining us, an unprecedented numbers for job losses unemployment triples to 14.7

depression era levels. joining us is jan hatzius. >> good morning. good to be on your show. >> judging from your research, it sounds like you thought the number of jobs lost would be higher, and you probably think it is higher than the one we got this morning >> yeah. i mean, we thought it was going to be higher, and this release, i think, it's obviously very difficult for the bureau of labor and statistics to estimate the precise number of jobs lost and i think there's a pretty high probability that ultimately we're going to get some downward divisions to this, and i'd say on the unemployment rate, the numbers were broadly in line with our expectations, but also in the household survey, clearly also a lot of statistical issues i would say the one take away that i think is a bit more

positive is that the vast majority of job loosers don't view themselves as necessarily permanently laid off the vast majority were classified as temporarily laid off, so i think there's more of an expectation that they will ultimately return to work, but clearly that's going to depend on how the economy does, and how quickly activity comes back. >> on that point, jan, larry cud l lowe on fox said he expects three quarters of the job losses in april to be temporary what kind of work are you doing in that area, trying to figure out how many of these will return >> it's going to depend on the path of output growth, and of businesses coming back after temporary closure. i think none of us knows that,

but under our forecast for the economy, i do think the majority of people are going to be reemployed it's not going to be, of course, as fast as the downturn in employment, but if we look into 2021, yes, we do think that the unemployment rate and other measures of labor market for the generation are going to reverse the majority of the deterioration. that said, it's going to be a lengthy process. and even by the end of 2021, we'll still see the marks of this in the labor market numbers but not at these kinds of depression era levels. >> how do you think about which kind of industries and how many job cuts are structural in nature and more permanent? in other words, because the businesses won't come back, or

because big businesses are using this opportunity to trim jobs of -- that they may not need going forward? >> well, it's difficult to know, of course. you know, to what extent some of those types of job losses are lumped in with the crisis job losses i think the vast majority are crisis driven where firms basically shut down temporarily, or laid off a significant amount of staff, because they currently don't have significant revenue you know, i think it's ultimately going to depend on how much of a return of economic activity we're going to see. our estimate is that we'll see a drop in gdp in the second quarter of 34% annualized.

that's about 10% quote, unquote, not annualized, and we think a little bit more than half of the output lost in the first half of the year is going to come back by the end of 2020 and then we'll see further above trend goals in 2021 so the majority of the jobs are going to come back but, again, it's a lengthy process, and the further out you go in time, the more you also have to think about more structural changes, and i think it's very difficult to have an answer to how large those are going to be in absolute terms, but i think they're going to be smaller than the short-term changes. for the structural changes in the unemployment rate, we're not talking on the order of 10

percentage points. i mean, we're talking much smaller numbers. so for the most part -- >> that's helpful. >> yeah. for the most part, this is a huge but temporary downturn in our view, but it does require, i think, strong recovery in output, and it will continue to require very very easy monetary and fiscal policies which are entirely appropriate at this time when you're going through this type of labor market di location >> we're hearing from industries, laying out retail and the airlines, about how they're looking at reopening, and how they're taking measures like temperature checks, but also importantly reducing capacity shanghai disney opening at 30% capacity restaurants lower capacity airlines, i think 60 % capacity for a number of them

if you add that up and think about that, how quickly and how strongly can the economy rebound? >> well, i think it depends on the sector i mean, in the consumer services sector, in areas that require a large amount of face to face interaction, i do think that's going to be slower and even by 2021, i think we're still not going to be back to normal i think we'll basically get back to normal once we have a vaccine or more permanent solution to the virus problem. there are other parts of the economy, though, manufacturing and construction, where i think increases in how careful we are and changes in hygiene protocols can bring back activity quite a bit more quickly i think that's also the lesson that you can take from what we've seen in china, you know, i'm not saying that china

translates one for one to what we're going to see in the u.s. or in europe obviously there are many differences, but one similarity that i think we're going to see here as well is that industry has recovered more likely than the consumer sector. >> interesting you mentioned safetyprotocols. of course, those are expensive, and we've seen that bourn out with meat suppliers and processors we know the supply of some goods will be limited, jan we know about fiscal and fed balance sheet concerns the china trade deal is having hiccups according to the president. how does that affect consumer inflation over the next 12 months >> so i think the inflation numbers are going to be below the fed's target for the foreseeable future in the short-term there are a number of distortions that make the inflation numbers i think

somewhat hard to read. for example, sit-down restaurant meals are not in many parts of the country available at any price. so how do you come up with an inflation reading in that area but i think if you look beyond the period of the greatest disruptions, then what are we going to be left with? we're going to be left with still a large number of unemployed workers, even if you go out six months or a year. and still a large amount of unused real estate, empty store fronts all of those things are disinflationary. i think they're going to weigh on the inflation numbers, and are going to mean that it will be a long time before the fed gets back to its 2% inflation target and you know, i think there will be, of course, changes in prices at moring a ra gaited levels

some plarices are up some are down. overall, i think we'll be in a low inflation price levels >> good to talk you. wish the circumstances were different today regarding the jobs number, but we'll see you soon jan hatzius of goldman sachs and the point about inflation is going to be different given that paul is on squawk on monday to hedge against long-term inflation. >> yep it will be interesting to watch. that and gold which has performed quite well during the course of the crisis carl, coming up, another ceo of a company that has born the brunt of some of this. the ceo of booking holdings. a 50% in the first quarter bookings, but the question is what is it going to see in the months to come we'll have that interview next ♪

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despite the horrific jobs number in april, we continue to see this market move higher, about 1% for the s&p 500 358 was the high on the dow. we're not too far off. all sectors higher in the s&p led by energy which is the leader for the week. about a 2 % gain for the dow this week. stay with us the ceo of booking holdings is coming next on the show

welcome back let's get to seema who is with glenn fogel. >> thank you for joining us this morning, glenn we appreciate it >> thank you for having me >> i think the number that stands out from your earnings last night, bookings down 85% yo year over year as you have discussions with priceline and kayak, what are you expectations on how long it will take for travel to return to recovid-19 levels >> well, i think the right answer is nobody knows for sure. we have to make an estimate. i'm fairly confident this is not something that's going to come back in quarters this is a recovery of -- a full recovery is going to take years. i think no one is going to feel comfortable, fully comfortable traveling until they can feel that they are safe and that requires either perhaps

we'll have a vaccine hopefully not long from now, or an effective treatment would help until that happens, i think people are going to be concerned about travel >> yeah. last time we spoke, we discussed the importance of testing for the travel industry. what do you think it will take for a traveler to get back on a plane, visit family across the country? will it be a vaccine is that the new passport to getting on a plane >> it can be whatever it is that makes people feel safe that they're getting on a plane and not going to catch a disease and a vaccine would be the greatest thing everybody feels -- people don't worry about polio much in the united states because of an effective vaccine, nobody is going to get polio an effective treatment could help too people think it's a bad illness, but the chance of me being seriously debilitated or losing my life, if that's eliminated because there are effective treatments, that could work. and the thing nobody wants to wait for is if herd immunity

were to work, we're not sure yet, but that means there is an end point at some point. enough people will have been infected and recovered and then there will be the ability -- we don't want to wait for that. tho as possible. >> give us color, glenn, on what you're seeing in countries that have lifted lockdown measures from china, south korea, to germany and are those countries, in fact, a template for what we could see here >> well, i think it's hard to know for sure. den different countries operate differently, but we see green chutes in germany and south korea is a good example and things like in singapore where a very good system there, they've done a very good job of controlling the infections but then they loosen things up and infections come back up and they put them back in same thing in hong kong. we have to be careful with this. when you lift up these restrictions you can have these flare-ups and then the

government needs to step in and reinstate these restrictions and bring everything back down that kind of wave recovery i going to be disconcerning to a lot of people. >> glenn, it's david faber you've obviously raised liquidity to get yourself through this difficult period. do you feel like you're in a position where however long it may be you're going to be able to get to the other side in terms of where your liquidity is and i know you've laid some people off at kayak and open table, are you done with the furloughs? >> well, you know, first of all we went out to the market and we is it raise over $4 billion and we feel very good about that, maintaining and providing that liquidity that will enable us even in worse case scenarios to get to the other side as you pointed out. in terms of furloughs or layoffs, we are obviously looking at everything and what's the future size and shape of the company going to be and it depends on what we think will be the rate of recovery in travel look, we see it all around the

world. travel has taken it the worst of any industry by far and unfortunately i believe travel will be one of the last things that get out because of what people will be concerned ate doing. we have to make sure that the company is sized appropriately for the demand that will come forward. we'll continue to look at that. >> glenn, do you believe even when we do get to a point of a vaccine or antivirals that allow people to feel more comfortable being out do you believe behaviors in the hotels or airlines will change or actions will have to change that will add costs over a long period of time >> there could be some costs particularly in the beginning. you've heard of airlines that are talking about perhaps not having middle seats for some time and that would be even after a vaccine they may want to do that andto make people feel safe it's going to take time for a vaccine to be distributed to enough people to establish the immunity we need in society. that could cost.

there could be other measures taken. some of the costs will be low, fever checks before -- in the airports even before there's a vaccine, we're going to start putting that in and they may go on afterwards and other things to put together to make people feel more comfortable. the clenanliness in a hotel is more costly but something that makes people feel more comfortable that they're willing to go somewhere. >> glenn, it's sara. we got a pretty ugly report on our jobs market on april this morning and of the 20.5 million jobs lost, 7.7 million were in travel, leisure and hospitality. 47% of total positions there how are you thinking about how many of those jobs can come back if at all? >> yeah. and, you know, it's tragic it really is it's so hard on so many people when things like this happen and out of the blue, really.

no one saw any warning of this nobody knows when are we going to start getting that demand to examine back certainly the amount of employment in the travel industry is just completely correlated to the amount of demand and it's very flexible and companies that are very large that have to hire a lot of people will be able to bring back people quickly once demand starts to pick up again. as i stated, unfortunately we don't see the full recovery for some time so it's going to take some time for these people to come back and the saddest thing is, so many of these jobs are for people at entry levels who are really just joining the workforce at very low levels and work their way up. if those entry level jobs aren't there, that creates a huge problemp and we need the governments to step up and help provide assistance and support, not just what has been done already which i am so thankful for and happy the governments have done that, i think the president and treasury secretary

ma new shun and schumer and pelosi have done great job getting to where we are, but we need to do more. we need to provide the funds that are necessary to help prime the pump so when the demand starts to come back a little bit the government will feel safer and travel we need the government to put together programs that will help bring back that what i say is one of the greatest industries in the world, somebody that everybody loves and we need help to support it. >> you know, just to push back a little on the airlines this week actually started which the disclosure from warren buffet that he dumped his airline positions and took a loss because he doesn't see it coming back any time soon these companies are going to be left in worse financial shape, they're going to be heavily indebtds and they're going to be facing less capacity when it comes to flying. how can they hire back all their workers? >> well, first of all, mr. buffet is a very smart investor and i would never try to make that he knows -- that i know better than him about how to

trade his stocks and that's his job. my job is to make sure we helps the industry come back and make sure we put a lot of people in demand yes, times are bad, yes people have lost a lot of money so far, but the planes didn't disappear. they're parked the pilots, it's not like they're no longer around they are waiting to be called back as are the flight attendants and everybody else. once the demand comes this is the first time that the airlines industry has had some significant problems we've been through a lot of that in the past. the great recession in 2008/2009, 9/11 of course, a terrible affect on the airline industry, yes this is much worse than anything, but that doesnmen that the recovery is going to be similar. demand comes back, the companies start calling back the pilots and flight attendants, the planes are brought back and we fly again going back to the life we used to love so much. >> glenn, do you believe some of the guidance we're getting out

of the cruise lines about bookings maybe not this year but 2021, the pricing guidance are these trips people are going to cancel but haven't canceled yet and trying to hedge. >> there's certainly a possibility. i know people that say well, next year, i think i'm going to take a trip whether it be a cruise or any other trip and they will quickly want to get that price in now and want to actually book something with the knowledge that if it's not safe, that they're going to cancel that's why i think we have to be very careful about any of the forward bookings that are long out. our demand, we look at our demand at booking.com and we're seeing a barbel, a lot of bookings up close, i won't say a lot, relatively speaking, from the middle part where there's very little and then you get further out, late in the summer or into the fall and there's more the chance that those things late in the summer or in the fall are going to cancel i think is higher than it would have been before the illnesses and the reason is people say, i don't know how it's going to be.

i just want to lock up what i want so i have it and if i'm not safe i'm going to cancel i think we have to be careful about that >> and also i don't need to tell you, it is going to be a lot of attention next week watching shanghai disney. we've talked about the limited capacity, but to sell out in three minutes according to some of these third-party ticket brokers in china, do you believe that, that it was real demand and what will you be looking for to judge success next week >> on that i didn't see the pricing. i don't know what it's being sold for if it's sold at a significant discount it would not surprise me you can sell a lot of things when you sell them half off. your second question was >> i guess how will you judge disney's efforts to ensure safety they really have become a proxy for travel at large. orlando is going to be a huge test case for how travel and

tourism respond throughout the country. >> absolutely. all companies that are responsible they want their customers to be safe everybody wants their customers safe we want our customers to be safe you will take be aions to see what steps you can take social distancing open table has a great thing where we changed our reservations that are set up for tables in restaurants, we set it up so we can give it away free to any retailer who want to spread out demand so people can get a reservation, not a restaurant reservation, but a reservation to go shopping and the stores or the pharmacies could limit the amount of people coming through that door we're talking to universitieses to help them in the fall to open up so is that dining halls are obviously a concern for any administrator in the university, they want -- how are they going to control the demand? they don't want kids coming in at one time. they're going to spread them out. coming up with ways to do that there will be more technology to

try to make things safer these things put together by google or apple or all the other ones coming up, things for your phone it would be great to have that tracing being done automatically, technologically instead of trying to remember who did i see last week. >> how do you see different parts of the population traveling once the crisis is over the cruise lines are deliberating whether they can allow passengers above 70 with preexisting conditions on board? do you see baby boomers traveling once the crisis is over >> duty of care for your customer and how do you decide whose right is it? is it the right of the customer to say i want to go and the cruise ship saying this creates liability. i think it's going to be something we'll have to work down as we get further along where are we with treatments and vaccine and what's the level of infection is it safe or not. your question is right, people