there will be more technology to try to make things safer these things put together by google or apple or all the other ones coming up, things for your phone it would be great to have that tracing being done automatically, technologically instead of trying to remember who did i see last week. >> how do you see different parts of the population traveling once the crisis is over the cruise lines are deliberating whether they can allow passengers above 70 with preexisting conditions on board? do you see baby boomers traveling once the crisis is over >> duty of care for your customer and how do you decide whose right is it? is it the right of the customer to say i want to go and the cruise ship saying this creates liability. i think it's going to be something we'll have to work down as we get further along where are we with treatments and vaccine and what's the level of infection is it safe or not. your question is right, people are going to start traveling

locally first. i'm not saying domestic. i'm saying within 100 miles of your home or 200 miles you can drive there so you feel good, in your car, it's safe gradually people will become used to it and spread out. 9/11, i had friends who said after 9/11, i will never get on a plane ever again, i'm never doing it and six months later, okay, i'm going to try it. okay wasn't so bad. that's what's going to happen. people will feel gradually safer and safer. >> that seems to be the case we appreciate your time. glenn fogel, ceo of bookings holdings. >> thank you very much. >> carl, back to you. >> tanks for bringing that to us seema moody. good morning welcome to "squawk alley." i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and jon fortt coming to you live from various location we're trying to hold 24,200. where we get 20.5 million jobs lost in the month of april joining us to talk about that and more is art cashin of ubs

and our own bob pisani art, great to have you back. happy friday. >> thank you great to be with you >> so a lot of our viewers have the question they've had for several days that is how can the news flow be so negative and the markets so resilient >> i think the markets are anticipating far more rapid turnaround than some of us old folks are. people are, at least the ones i talk to, are experiencing a great deal of cabin fever. you saw that the also of employment and the hospitality industry was heavy, and a lot of that has to do with bartenders and restaurant waiters and others, so people are really feeling the need to get out and i think they're extrapolating that into what they think will be a v-shaped rebound. i don't believe that will happen i think the concern over

liability and other things will cause both bars and restaurants and others to reconfig their operation, maybe separate tables, maybe not -- something where there's two and three people deep at the bar i don't think the rebound will be as strong as the stock market seems it could be and i think we're fighting some resistance here as you know, you see my preopening comments. i said the dow would get up to fight at the 24,250 level and the s&p at 2950 and we seem to be fighting right there. i think the market is a little ahead of itself. >> yeah. one pore here and i'll turn it over to bob. the two-year yielding 10.5 basis points, how much are you watching the shape of the curve and the argument that bond

market is telling equity investors to think twice >> i think that's for certain and i mentioned also in my comments that equity traders are a little concerned we're getting some of the bond area is discounting negative rates and that would not be certainly conducive with what most people believe would be a v-shaped rebound there are certain other things, you're hearing that federal government may postpone tax day even further, even much later in the year, so that would seem to indicate to me that those in washington looking ats the numbers as they're coming in, are saying wait a minute, this rebound doesn't look as rapid as we would like and that's why they're postponing tax collection and other things to give the economy a little bit of

a push i think it's going to be a while, as i said before, i think the viewers want to watch the area 24,250 and the s&p 2950 and you need to kind of punch through there and you shouldn't sneak through there. if you punch through there the bulls will gain great credibility and may indicate that reopening the economy is not going to have negative results. >> it's bob. good to have you back. it's obvious you're not a fan of the v-shaped recovery if not a v, what is it? if we're using alphabet soups, is it a u, l, i've heard w this week talking to you you used an m kind of recovery is that what you think is going to happen and why? are you concerned about reinfection rates?

if you're not a v guy, what kind of guy are you >> i'm not a v guy because i don't believe that this economy -- remember, this is a unique situation this enormous unemployment is not because the economy slowed down or because people started losing sales all this was mandated by the government they said my goodness, people are getting sick, we didnon't w the liability, therefore let's close down the bars, close down the restaurants, let's shut back on cruise lines and airlines and you're seeing all of that and it's enormous unemployment that's popped up for me, it is difficult to see if you're going to get a v shape because as i listen to businesses as they plan their reopening, one of their primary

concerns is liability. they don't want to open their restaurants and then later, if god forbid, the virus breaks out or spreads, to have some clients or lawyers come in and say you shouldn't have opened so rapidly, you should have opened in a different fashion there is an extraordinary caution among the businesses that while they would love to see the clients come roaring back, they're a little cautious there. that makes me hesitant to see that there is going to be a v shape. the great risk as you alluded to would be if we started to have new contagion of the virus and see where things are going the best thing that the viewers and investors can hope for is some kind of medical treatment, even before the vaccine.

if you get something that looks like it can treat things right now, not months from now, not a year from now, but that if you run a risk and you become, heaven forbid infected, that they can treat you and treat you with some nominal success, that would be enormously favorable to the market. >> yeah. >> after that comes a vaccine. >> certainly an agreement that treatment would be positive for the markets and has been any announcement moves the market let me conclude and ask you about the federal reserve. most people feel the main reasons the markets are holding up so well there's a floor under the market because the federal reserve is there is the fed put real, art do you believe that's the reason the markets are holding up so well will the fed, in fact, do anything would they, for example, in a worse case scenario start buying equities even if they had to change their understanding or agreement or their charter with congress >> well, i think the fed is

there intensely. i think you hear it in the chairman's comments. the fed is very concerned. they don't want to be seen as overly rigid or overly strict when we're looking at a potential health crisis. so they're going to bend over backwards and do anything they can. as far as buying equities i would hope not i would certainly hope that they don't drifin negative rates i don't think that anywhere we've seen that happen it's been constructive, but i do believe that the fed is there, they're all-in, they're back with anything it takes and if you read what the fed has said and the fed governors have said in recent speeches, they're all there. they don't want to be the guys who abandoned the economy when an infection broke out. >> art, we're grateful as

always wish we got a camera on you because you sound great. we look forward to our next conversation have a good weekend. >> have a good weekend too and i hope we find some place where we can marinate some ice cubes. >> art cashin of ubs, we'll see you later. and bob pisani, thanks one bright spot these days is tech. the nasdaq back above 9,000 in positive territory year to date. rbc's mark mahaney is wit us now. happy friday. >> hey, jon. >> nasdaq is positive for the year at a time when i just talked to carl, the head of the silicon valley leadership group on cnbc, he said based on his survey job losses in silicon valley looking like they will be on par with the dotcom financial bust what is the likelihood some of these businesses even in tech

haven't felt the full weight of reality because of stimulus and other things, but it's coming and are you pricing that in? >> well, i think that's a darn good question. we haven't seen the real economic impact and what happens to consumer spending and most tech is cycled against consumer spending we haven't seen what the real impact is when the unemployment rates are as high as they are and the impact on spending later this year. mighty amazon is going to be negatively impacted if we're staying close to 20% unemployment for six months. we haven't seen the impact of that yet we've seen the impact of what shelter in place restrictions do to businesses and some of them are structural winners but a lot are impact pd. you had glenn fogel on before. his industry, online travel, is clearly materially impacted. you have the ride sharing companies that are impacted as much as the travel companies or almost as much we have seen negative impacts and weekend still see worse in

the back half of this year. >> on those lines, you raised a lot of price targets lately. i want to particularly focus on uber uber's trading now around 32, a little less than $32 this morning, where it was nine months ago i believe you got a $52 target on it. that's about 60% up from here. it seems to me that if people aren't full in going back to work, they're not taking ubers to work or to lunch from work, then they're not taking ubers back to work from lunch, et cetera, why the raised price target even above where you've been in the past and what's built into that assumption >> yeah. thanks, john, uber is our number one pick it's our number one rebound pick it's been our number one pick going into the year the stock was doing great and we had covid crisis and the stock plummeted and we thought the stock oversold they and lyft have said that the last three weeks they've seen week on week growth and in the

states that have opened up, georgia and texas, they've seen rides, the rides part of their business jump up 40 to 50% off the lows as soon as we leave our homes and commute whether for work or social occasions we'll use ride sharing. i don't think it's going to take that long at all i think that's what the georgia and texas data tells you in the meantime you have the eats business at uber, we thought that may be a structural winner out of the crisis it is. in the march quarter uber eats grew 50% year over year. in april going into may that's gone up 90% year over year the company has taken a lot of costs out of the business. the overhangs prior to covid were can you make the economic works out of eats. they're going to be delayed, i don't think they will get there in q4 of this year, but q1, q2 next year will be a profitable enterprise growing well in excess of 30% overall. i think this is the time to buy

it. >> i think that's interesting, mark pre-covid, remember all the complaints about the business model is too complicated, eats was weight around their ankles and get out of major markets now a lot of investors who were awfully glads the eats business there is >> it turned out to be a little bit of a hedge it's a small portion of the business it's only 15%. but you're right there were two major overhangs prior to covid one was the profit outlook for eats and the one good piece of news, one other piece, was that the peak ebitda loss, the peak loss quarter for eats turned out to be the december not the march quarter and our guess is you're going to see declining losses until you reach that break even for the company as a hole. you will see that in the eats business the unfortunate reality they have tons of drivers now the unfortunate reality is a lot of restaurants are eagerly trying to get on to online food delivery they're opening up, and working with uber eats in a way they weren't prior to the crisis.

those are unfortunate kungsz but consequences of this crisis and makes the model better. >> i want to ask you about the jedi contract. things heating up between at least the rhetoric between amazon and microsoft amazon hitting back this morning in a blog post laying out their argument for why they think the facts are for this being considered we don't think the jedi award was ajudd cated fairly and we think interference impacted the award decision. is this just a field for amazon and microsoft to play out their broader kind of marketing battle over who is really legit in the cloud or are there real dollars and profits potentially to be lost or gained here? >> you know, the answer to those questions is both. i think you know that. obviously this is really important. go back in history the most important contract, aws ever won, i would argue, was the

cia contract in 2013 that put the stamp of approval, if the aws is good enough for the cia it's good enough for everybody that was an emerging technology. you go forward today, this is not only a sizable contract, talking $10 billion over many years, but it's the department of defense it's really key for both of thesecompanies it's very hard to know externally for any of us to know whether it was adjudicated correctly or not was there political interference, it's clear there was, but whether it influ onced -- there was an attempt, whether it influenced the end decision is almost impossible to know externally. >> you have the hamilton poster behind you, it's starting to remind me of the hamilton versus jefferson rap battles in that great musical. we'll see where it goes from here on the details. mark mahaney, have a great weekend. good to see you. >> you too, jon. >> are you ready for a cabinet meeting, jon

california takes a big step today as they phase in more reopenings we'll talk to the mayor of san diego after a short break with the markets still in the green don't go away. .

we've spoken to many of the governors, most of the governors. as you know we give leeway to the governors and these are governors that have done a good job in i think all cases i have some that i don't think are doing a particularly good job, but for the most part they have and these governors have

and we give them the leeway. >> welcome back. california, north carolina and pennsylvania all taking steps to reopen today and while data from recently reopened states are still very new, some states are seeing different trends and case numbers as testing continues and government officials balance their state's economies and the populations health in colorado the state has seen a 37% increase in cases since reopening on april 27th, that's an average of 448 cases per day. colorado has increased testing though by 53% since then, so that could be part of th reason meanwhile in minnesota the state has seen a 160%increase in cases since reopening that same day an average of 524 cases a day. minnesota increased testing 65% in that same time, carl. i think the cases thing is difficult because when you increase testing, you would expect to also increase the

number of cases that you're finding. hospitalizations for me are a real issue because that should be a rate that's relatively the same before and after, regardless of how many tests are being put out there, who is being hospitalized with covid-19 symptoms >> yeah. it's so is true, jon why we're seeing more charts that are positives per case per test, in other words, different ways of slicing the data as you mentioned san diego is among the cities that are starting to reopen having already allowed some residents access to beaches, despite some warnings from the governor we're joined by san diego's mayor, kevfaulconer. >> thank you for having me. >> what's going to be open and to what degree book stores, florists, sporting goods, but all curbside? >> all curbside for now, and, you know, from our standpoint,

one of the things we're ready to go in san diego. we've been working on for the last several weeks with the economic recovery group, comprised of about 30 business associations representing hundreds of thousands of employees with one goal, how do we reopen safely, how do we have phases that make sense with the ability to protect our customers and, of course, protect our employees. so this is something that we've been focusing on for as i said the last several weeks and it does get to, as you mentioned, when we reopened our beaches, we did it with a plan developed by lifeguards, with our public health officials, phased approach that's working in san diego, other cities are now emulating that, and so we're ready to go. we want to reopen safely we want to reopen expeditiously and do it with public health and safety in mind >> so what sort of trajectory are you using in terms of new cases or hospitalizations or however you want to slice it to

judge that it's time and what kind of data would you need to see to reverse that decision >> yeah. i think you hit the nail on the head when we were talking about really the percentage of positives per cases, and that's something that we've been tracking in san diego county right at about 6% and 7% you do look at hospitalizations. you look at capacity, you look at ppe all of those marks in terms of the flat lining we've been able to hit in san diego and working closely with our county public health officials because if you do not do it in concert from a public health standpoint and have the consumer confidence and people believing in the policies that you're going to put in place, you're not going to be able to have the successful reopenings that all of us want our approach really has been data driven but also been driven by hey, let's develop these procedures in these phases, developed by our small businesses because they know better than anybody, here are the things we need to do to keep their employees and customers

safe we're really hoping as we continue to move forward here in california, that counties like san diego that are seeing some of these positive signs have some of the flexibility to move a little bit quicker because we're ready to go. >> mayor, i was speaking last week with qualcomm's ceo steve mallen cough who you know well, they have a huge proportion of their work force working at home and doesn't seem like that's likely to change any time soon they're probably one of the biggest employers you've got in san diego. when you have businesses of that size keeping people home, that has to have an impact on commerce as well what are those business leaders telling you? how are you communicating with them and the public whether it's safe to come out as you do begin to open up >> well, that's right. qualcomm, a san diego company of 10,000 strong within the city,

and in talking with the folks at qualcomm, again being leaders on telecommuting and safety precautions that's going to be the future for a lot of us including the city of san diego, employees being able to work remotely and that will not necessarily be a negative thing to do so safely. i think this is part of the phases of how are we reopening smart, how are we using technology how when we open do we have all of those precautions in terms of building entrances and staggered work times to keep people safe and promote that consumer confidence when you walk too a business in san diego, all of the steps are being taken. >> mayor, what are you doing about tourism? i think there are going to be a lot of people from california possibly from surrounding states who want to come to san diego as usual, especially if beaches are open and it's starting to be that season, when it comes to contact tracing, when it comes to testing and protocols in the

sorts of businesses and locations that tourists frequent, what are you doing >> it's all of the above that's incredibly important. as we're upping our number of tests in san diego county on a daily basis, hiring additional contact tracers, in fact, i was talking yesterday, we had a thousand applications, moving quickly, moving expeditiously, but again back to the climate that people understand that particularly as you go back to our beaches, very phased approach, you know, developed by lifeguards and san diegans are following the rules. i was out there on the beaches myself last week with our lifeguards you can walk, you can run, surf and swim, no sitting down, and to see that compliance i think bodes extremely well for when we start to reopen our businesses because san diegans, just like others in california, do not want to give back the tremendous gains we've made the sacrifices we've made over these last six weeks so i think that's why it's incredibly important for mayors like myself to have these clear

policies to communicate them and then give benchmarks that say here's how we're hitting them so we can go to other phases. >> the other big news, we're going to talk a lot more about state and local employment in the months to come, specialespey on the heels of the state budget deficit of $54 billion do you foresee large cuts to road maintenance, first responders what's going to happen to employment on a local basis >> our estimated revenue shortfall will be about $300 million. i'm going to do it on priority city services. you're not going to see reductions in police officers or firefighters we're going to continue our road repair we're going to make reductions in other places. we've been planning and had healthy reserves for a rainy day such as this but the most important thing we can do, i think, is to not delay some of these decisions now

because it's just going to make it worse in the future out years. i'm really big on making sure that we're matching one-time expenditures with one-time revenue and not using ongoing to replace that those aren't easy decisions for any mayor to make, but we have to do them and we have to do them now so we can get ourselves over the hump sooner rather than later. >> mr. mayor, thank you for coming on. you have the whole country rooting for you and every community that's trying to make this happen as quickly and as safely as possible please come back >> will do, thanks for having me. >> mayor of san diego. let's get a check on where we stand in today's trade. take a look at the major indices. the dow and s&p at or near session highs. the nasdaq slightly off of that. all of those up more than 1% the dow up 1.5% which translates into about 360 points. a lot more "squawk alley" still ahead. stay with us

welcome back here's the latest on the pandemic democratic lawmakers are asking treasury secretary steven mnuchin to crack down on airlines for allegedly reducing employee hours after taking billions in federal virus aid. the senators argue that the new policies may be in violation of the conditions for receiving that aid, which was meant to help fund employee payrolls. the government is still unaware of just how many nursing

homes have coronavirus outbreaks. the federal regulator overseeing long-term care facilities says the data is still weeks away from being made public more than 13,000 people in long-term care facilities have died from the virus. and according to a new survey from ohio state university, a majority of americans are worried about new moms and babies amid the covid-19 outbreak. 80% of the 2,000 people polled said they would be concerned if they or someone else in their life were pregnant or consideringbecoming pregnant as always, for more on the coronavirus coverage head to cnbc carl, a lot of people were expecting a baby boom coming out of this but apparently that will not be the case. back to you. >> time will tell, sue. >> indeed. >> thank you very much. we're getting so many headlines out of washington, d.c., today. let's get to eamon javers this morning. hi, eamon. >> yeah, carl, some news from nbc, a member of vice president

pence's staff has now tested positive for the coronavirus this according to an administration official speaking to nbc news. now we know that the vice president was scheduled to go to des moines, iowa this morning. his plane did take off this morning, took off an hour later and reporters traveling with the vice president this morning said a number of staffers disembarked the plane during the course of that delay not clear exactly why that may have happened this morning, but an administration official now telling nbc news that a member of the vice president's staff did test positive for the coronavirus. that said, the staff member who tested positive was not traveling with the vice president today to iowa. so we expect to get some more details from the vice president's office shortly, perhaps when that plane lands in iowa today this follows that news yesterday that the president's valet, a person in the united states navy who serves the president, tested positive for the coronavirus as well the president said that both he and the vice president were

tested after that and tested negative so no concern after the valet incident now a new person close to the vice president testing positive as well. carl, back over to you >> all right eamon, thanks for helpings us with that. we're going to be seeing and looking for headlines like that for quite a while. in the meantime, though, close to session highs 2920 on the s&p. and 24250 on the dow when we come back the president of live nation on that company's results and the country's first concert with social distancing at&t knows you have a lot of things on your mind. staying connected shouldn't be one of them. that's why we're offering contactless delivery and set-up on all devices. and for those experiencing financial hardship due to this crisis, we'll work with you to keep your service up and running.

hi! because at at&t, we're always committed to keeping you connected. - [female vo] restaurants are facing a crisis. and they're counting on your takeout and delivery orders to make it through. grubhub. together we can help save the restaurants we love.

let's get to julia boorstin who joins us with the president of live nation julia? >> jon, thanks so much i'm joined by joe, president of live nation fresh on the heels of that company's earnings thanks for talking to us today. >> thank you >> so joe, live nation just

reported that you expect to reach show volume next year and fan attendance that's similar to what you've seen in the pre-covid years. with so much uncertainty right now how can you predict that attendance will resume where it was last year so quickly >> i think the one thing that we are seeing that we're very confident in is the level of fan demand that continues to exist for concerts we just did a survey of over 10,000 fans, people that go to live events worldwide, over 90% of them said they're eager to get back to live events, over 80% want to get back to live events within the next four months it's consistent globally throughout all countries, through agagenx, y, z they want to get back to the shows. more important is we've now been refunding at a large scale the 9,000 concerts that have been impacted by this shutdown over

80% of them are rescheduling and as we offer fans the option on those shows do they want to keep their ticket or want a refund? over 90% of those fans are deciding to keep the ticket. the fan that has the ticket to the show that was supposed to be this summer, they want to keep the ticket they want to go to the show next year when we see that level of demand today during these uncertain times, that gives us confidence that the fans will be there when we're allowed to get out and have our shows again >> joe, the way concerts look and feel is going to be very different on the other side of this, perhaps for quite a long time tell us how you're going to be implementing social distancing measures and don't you think that people may feel differently about going back to concerts if they have to wear masks or you're limited to 20 or 30% capacity >> we've asked fans what matters to them. the factors that overwhelmingly matter the most to the fans is the confidence that there's been

deep cleaning at the buildings, the hand sanitizers are available. we'll clearly for a period of time be following social distancing we'll put in a range of procedures to reduce the contact, have contactless entry with our digital ticketing to tie that in to have the ability to buy merchandise and concessions on a contactless basis and we expect that through the course of this year and i think we're optimistic as we get into next year and treatments and vaccines become more available we're able to get back to doing shows more in a way people are accustomed to >> you know, we're seeing distance getting ready to open its shanghai park at less than 30% capacity how much do you expect to limit your capacity and what kind of pressure will that put on your margins going forward? >> yeah. i think that certainly over the course of this year what we're going to see is largely substantially reduced capacity in all of the venues again, as that develops, the

proper treatments and vaccines over the course of getting into next year we have hopes that that will grow really our costs are variable. we pay the artists the vast majority of the revenues that come from the door we then support that by what we make from ticketing, what we make from sponsorship, what we make from concessions, so through the course of this year there's no issues with the margins or economic impact we're operating in 40 countries. there are a number of markets in europe that are going to be opening denmark, spain, and asia, with hong kong, with australia and then markets here in the u.s we expect to be getting out and doing shows over the next few months, having that growing from there. >> joe, good morning it's jon fortt does this crisis shift the model for live events as far as kind of the business model. are live events going to be more expensive?

do you build in more subscription or memberships into it if you have fewer people and still want to make as much money, you have to charge more or add on different experiences somehow. >> yeah. i think that we're very much aligned. we've had a lot of conversations with the artists we're las vegas thplaying this e long-term for the fans in the short term there's going to be consessions and people aren't going to be making as much money because we're not going to have as many fans in the building we're not looking either only to make it accessible to people who can pay a lot, we're not looking to do anything -- we recognize the hardships that exist today we want to make this acceptable to everybody that's why artists are doing shows from home today. they want to stay connected to their fans and it's important as we come out we continue to make music what it is to unifying event that everybody can access and i think we're committed to, that the artists are committed to that and we'll continue to find ways to deliver that.

>> joe, twitch, youtube and others are trying to, i think, edge in on your turf here during this because they would argue they can be live, even though it's digital and when distanced is the best that you can get, they're offering kind of a live experience are you going it push more into digital experiences also of course i don't expect you to back away from physical, in person concerts because that's your strong suit, but do you have to do more digital to prevent encroachment by those platforms? >> we're doing that today. our live platform has had a million come to find shows they've had millions of people coming to the live events. we're doing that today with -- what we're finding when talking to the fans, though, they value this stay connected today, but only makes them want to get back to the live event more live events aren't just going to the show

they're going to the show with your friends and having a night out, they're celebrating, the kodak moments you do a handful times a year the live today at home remote is great, but it's no replacement for the true live event. >> got that right, joe i think everybody feels exactly what your own data has told you. in terms of names, artist names that we could see out there first, are they going to be big tent pole names like u2 and the rolling stones or will they be concentrated in other categories and if we're relying on outdoor first, does that mean venues in the south may see more activity than in the northern u.s.? >> yeah. i think we're going to follow the facts and science in terms of where we open up. we're working with the governments globally to figure out what are the markets that can do what safely at what point. we're not going to rush it we certainly have the health and safety of the fans and the

artists, all of our employees first and foremost so we're not going to try to predict the compactness of where and when as much as what we know from seeing now there will be certain countries in europe and asia and certain states in the u.s. that will lead it in terms of who is coming out, it's going to be all over the board. we've traditionally done a concert every 15 minutes somewhere globally and do thousands of arena to club level and we'll continue to see that mix as we come out of this >> now joe, you've been talking about the health of your employees, the health of fans but what about the economic health of consumers right now. we just saw record unemployment levels and i know you mentioned that fans are opting to hold on to these tickets for when concerts are rescheduled but are you concerned as the economic downturn worsens more people will be opting for refunds an fewer people will be able to pay up for some of the pricier concerts >> again, as i said, i think we and the artists will play along.

we understands the difficult economic situation today there is going to be tremendous effort to make sure we make tickets available and prices that are affordable to everybody out there. that will certainly be a priority thus far, the best indicator of what's happening now is that 90 odd percent of people opting to keep their tickets historically as we've gone through economic downturns over the past 20 or 30 years, the live event industry has continued to be a priority for how people spend their leisure dollars. because it's an affordable approachable luxury, we find that during economic downturns people may forgo that vacation or more expensive event but still want to go out and have an opportunity to do something with their family and friends and a concert fits that bill. >> so just a final question on what the future of the concert business looks like. paint us a picture of what it will be like for consumers to go

to concerts. you mentioned the ticketless entry, being able to buy things with your phone without having to exchange cash or pull out a credit card, but are we talking about a future where concerts are less crowded if you have staggered seating? what does it feel like to be at a concert a year or two from now. >> we're optimistic that scientific efforts under way on the treatments and vaccines will be bearing fruit within that time frame it has just been two months now and the tremendous progress in terms of the number of vaccines already in human trial, the work that's been done on several treatments, that all makes us optimistic that as we get into the 2021, the heart of the concert season a year from now, that we've got the ability to get people back into arenas and amphitheaters and stadiums screaming, watching the show together and enjoying that environment. >> joe, thanks so much for talking to us today and giving us a sense of what your business

looks like moving forward. really appreciate it twice, back over to you. julia, thanks for that that was great stuff julia boorstin we'll take a break here and when we come back, ed lazear with santelli on this morning's job number don't go away. ♪ ♪

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let'sget to rick santelli with a special guest hi, rick. >> hi, carl. yes, definitely a special guest on a special day in would like d lazear, former chair of the council of economic advisors under george wyo. for joining m morning. >> good to see you, rick. >> listen, i want to know what you think of the number? it shouldn't be surprising, doesn't make it less shocking but i want you to pay close attention to the big jump that we saw in average hourly earnings month over month and year over year. >> absolutely. let's start with the basic

number, the 14.5% unemployment rate that's obviously a staggering number it tells us that there's an enormous amount of pain out there. unfortunately there's more pain than is indicated by that number as you know, rick, those numbers are are collected on about the 12th of the month. since the 12th of the month there's been a number of unemployed workers that have come in through the initial claims we have seen that. right now we probably have about 40 million workers unemployed which maps into an unemployment rate that's great depression level. next month, i would expect to see the unemployment rate jumping and jumping considerably we know that's where we are right now. that said, i want to come back to the points that you raised. there are a couple of numbers that i always look at. the one i like to follow is not the unemployment rate but the employment rate. this time that tells the same story. it's at an all time low at 51%

dropped down ten percentage points from where it was it's about 7 percentage points where it was during the 2009 recessi recession. 2007-2009 recession. these are numbers that are staggering let's come back to the point that you've talked about which is the hours of work going up and wages going up you say, how could that possibly be i think that's a preview of the kind of recovery that we're going to have because what that tells us is that firms are going to using fewer and more highly paid workers and having each one of them work longer hours. right now, part of that is created by the unemployment system because you can get unemployment insurance, it's better to lay off the workers and have them draw the money from the government and have fewer workers on board i think that's going to actually

persist during the recovery. what we're going to see is the recovery will see output grow and then we'll see employment grow and then we'll see wages grow this one will be more pronounced >> excellent ed, we're going to switch gears here i want to move into a different lane we have two-year note yields around 11 basis points we have six months bills around 13 basis points. we have fed fund futures depicted from november 2020 on we could have negative overnight fed funds. now, negative interest rate policy isn't in their crystal but it seems traders and markets are pushing to see if the fed has a response to some of these huge 24-hour drops and short end rates. your thoughts. >> i have two thoughts if you look at the european

experience, negative interest rates have not done a lot to stimulate those economies. you could say it might have been worse had they not had negative interest rates there's not a lot of evidence that's done much i think the chairman is wise to be telling us to go there. if you go five basis points below, you go from zero to negative five, that's not a major move the one respect in which it's not a continuum is what does it signal in terms houf the fed is thinking about things. what i think it signals is if

they go negative, it tells us they are out of weapons and they have nothing else they can do. >> ed, we're almost out of time. i really want to know the answer to the next question that is when i look at the stop market, had discussions this morning, many believe it's doing much better than anything could possibly look regarding the economy a year or two down the road my thought is, investors invest in stocks but in order for those companies the make a profit, much of the economy and many workers have to be working and drawing salary can you equate what you think about the future with where stocks are today >> if you look at the stock market it's down 10, 15%

if you think of that as a forecast of long run gdp, if we thought it would get back to its february level within six, seven, eight quarters, that would not be inconsistent with what we're seeing in the stock market we would take a year, year and a half hit but we would be back to where we are before. >> thank you let's take a look at shares of apple. the nikkei reporting we'll begin seeing classic air pods made in vietnam as apple continues to adjust its production. while a lot of assembly is done in china, apple's supply chain is global. don't go anywhere. we're back after a quick break can get very complicated.

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we were just talking to the mayor of san diego about this. california slowly beginning phase two as some small businesses and customers venture back out into normalcy jane wells is about 90 miles north of san diego athuntingto beach surf shop with the story >> reporter: hey, john over the last eight weeks california has paid out nearly $9 billion in unemployment but today certain stores like the rock and fig surf shop are being allowed to reopen with still no safety rules still no indoor dining or m manicures and haircuts the governor has been under pressure to open and some places

star started early. the skyrocketing cost of covid-19 along with tremendous drop in revenue has turned our $21 billion surplus into a $54 billion deficit by the end of next june. >> when you see the numbers, they should get your attention and understandably so. what may not get as much attention and i think deserves your attention equally is we're better positioned to deal with the shortfall than we have shortfalls of the past >> reporter: he says recovery will depend on more federal aid. rick has owned this store for 30 years. finally opening after being cloeds f closed for two months. >> as far as sales go, i don't know everybody's been out of work they're kind of broke. people eat but surfboards kind of a different story, you know >> reporter: he's been getting by on savings and his landlord cut the rent in half it's a small part of a very big

story. this is everything back to you. >> it's not economy versus health to a large egree. economy is health when you look at like expectancy and gdp have a good weekend. let's get to the domino in the half all right. thanks very much our breaking news coverage continues right now. welcome to the show. i'm dominic chu. front and center this hour a historic and sad day at the same time for the american economy. the unemployment rate hitting levels we have not seen disince the great depression more than 20 million jobs lost but stocks keep powering ahead is the market out of touch with the real economy and where do we go from here exactly we're going to