tv Power Lunch CNBC May 8, 2020 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
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welcome back our breaking news coverage of the market starts now. stocks rallying today. the dow up about 300 points. the nasdaq, the real stand up here up 5% this week alone. that is despite today's historic jobs report showing a record 20 million jobs lost in the month of april we'll have more on that. >> where is my kitchen, everybody? could we put a fireplace in the monitor behind me. that's my only request welcome, everybody to "power lunch. good to be back in studio, at
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least for today. nasdaq pacing for its fifth day in the green markets moving higher. let's get to bob fast break more on this rally. hi, bob. >> it is tech powering the market is choosing to believe the reopening stories will go well the airlines are all up. it goes either way on that we'll see if we can break out. if we can do that, we're back to the levels we haven't seen since march here when you have the five largest stocks, the market will be up. that's a big meg cap rally most of the semiconductors have done well.
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nvidia is up 10% microns had a pretty good week they are contributing as well. not only is it positive, we're up almost 5% better than the overall nasdaq but something very important has happened to the etf. that's the triple q. it's amassed $100 billion in assets that's a very rare number. the etf business about $3 trillion there's only four other etfs that have $100 billion in assets and they are mostly s&p 500 related. the spider s&p the ishares. vanguard has one total stock market, all four of them over $100 billion now, today, investco is joining them big day for them 100 billion dollar club. back to you. >> thank you very much
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>> none of the numbers are nice exsent one that is many that many of these layoffs are regarding by those laidoff as temporary or furloughs. >> yeah. that's something i guess i should be used to after all these years following bob talking about an up market when i'm reporting on dismal economic news. this is a poignant one of those moments here this job report, historic job losses to a post-war high. debate of whether or not we have seen the extent of the tragedy in the jobs market and whether or not april will -- i'm sorry, may will show better numbers there's the debate, the bottom two numbers.
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6.4 million people dropping out of the work force. that's not good news for the future tyler's number there, 18 million, often these people go back to work relatively quickly. you can see the debate in two other numbers. there's the unemployment rate, 14.7%. a wider look called the u 6 of slack in the labor market surging above 22%. we wouldn't be surprised to see a big employment bounce in may educators, 644,000 educators losing their job tyler, at this point all you can do, hope for the pessimist to be
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wrong. prepare for them to be right back to you. >> thank you very much stick around steve for more on what lies ahead of the jobs market amid the coronavirus pandemic we welcome in founder and ceo of leading national staffing and recruiting firm. tom and steve, welcome to both you have tom, what are you seeing and i ask the secretary of labor an hour ago, is this worst we're likely to see? what do you think? >> i don't think it's the worst. this is what everybody has been expecting. sometimes for the numbers to happen is one thing but it shouldn't be a surprise to anybody and the leading sectors are still traveling tourism, restaurant, hospitality. we're seeing trends that we've been seeing. this isn't a surprise. the question is, when will there begin to be a bounce back. >> when do you think that is
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>> well, i think what's going to happen is we're going to see cash crunch in the third quarter. whether we open up june 1st nationwide or june 15th but come the third quarter we'll see the company, especially the larger ones that are haven't financial trouble, they'll slow down their severabl receivables. we're going to see this for a little while and we'll start to see the bounce back with retail and restaurants. they're not going to be full are the landlords going to hold them to paying their rent at the full amount. it's going to go on through the end of the year. >> we do hope there's the bounce back but we wonder what is not yet in these numbers i'm wondering about things like for small businesses who got ppp loans when that money runs out, what will they do with their
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employees. for larger firms when the crisis of the pandemic fade will they engage in layoffs and when will salary cuts be reflected in some of the government data >> we have seen a continued high level of unemployment claims the last several weeks that suggests there's some additional knock on effective job losses coming for may. some continued closures or businesses that have the second wave of business closings that look to be in effect they're not closing because of the covid crisis or health reason they are closing because their customers or other businesses closed you have this second wave of knock on effect that will be a real decline in economic
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activity not a purposeful or designed decline that's part of the shutdown >> based on a what you're seeing, i'm curious because there's a recent washington post that indicated about 70%, 7-0% of those people unemployed believe they will be rehired back is that the message you're getting from ceos you speak to >> in a perfect world, the answer is yes. the reality is that to quote the great philosopher rahm emmanuel, you don't want to waste a good crisis some of those people will not ban wanted back and others the companies are hoping they can bring them back. we were in an extreme the other way. that is 3.5% unemployment. it held out for a long time but that was really an aberration. that's almost full employment and almost unheard of. the actual number for a really good strong healthy economy at
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4.5 or 5% isn't crazy. we won't get back to 3.5% for a long, long time. >> steve or tom, let me ask you this the ppp money is supposed to be spent or paid out by when? june 1st or june 30th? steve. >> june 30th >> when that money gets paid out then could there be a next wave of layoffs at that point they carry people up to that point and then the employer, the retailer, the restauranteur says business hasn't come back. i've got to let you go i can't carry you. >> i'll answer this question quickly so tom has chance. it looks like at this point, tyler, the government has done a decent job in terms of calibr e calibrating the amount of stimulus or relief out there to the amount of lost income. you're absolutely right.
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it kind of echoes melissa's question as well is the government preparedfor the post-june extension of either the economic downturn or even the shutdown itself that we haven't seen from washington yet the good news is we can see that they do it there's a lot of handwringing about this >> do we still have tom on the line i'd like to get his thought and the idea that customers and even employee will be dealing with fear >> there's definitely a fear factor employees, former employees, unemployed folks, some of them are making more money than they were on the lower end than they were making salaries number two is because the unemployment benefits were extended and the checks went out so soon is that no one was air
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quote forced to take a job they wouldn't like to do. we're starting to create a little bit of a society of entitlement that the government checks will keep coming in instead of taking some of the jo jobs out there it's a problem >> you know what, tom, i understand that part of the story but let's give the average worker a break one time, some of them make out compared to the other times they -- i don't know what you want to call it, been screwed. i'm not going to get too work up about the fact that some of them one time in a bail out got a little bit extra it's not going to make the difference and maybe do a little more, spend a little more or live a little better
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>> i don't think it's about getting screwed or winning i think it's about where the expectations are level set and what people are going to want going forward. i'm all for helping out in a crazy situation like this. they don't want to lose out on unemployment benefits, that's a problem. i agree. i'm all for the fact that the corporations get bailed out and we have to help the consumer but there is a happy medium on both. >> all right we're going to leave it there. a good discussion there. markets rally straight through with tech as the recent leader and stocks said to close in the green. for more on markets let ease
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bring in david katz. gentlemen, great to have you with us. ron, give us a temperature check on where you think the markets are given the data we have gotten >> people have been complaining that the stock market is not the economy and the economy is not is stock market. i think the stock market is adequately reflecting the rapid and increase pace of change we're seeing in the composition of economic activity to put it simply, those companies that are, and you can view this perversely or not that are benefitting from shelter in place, stay at home, have out performed. those that losing have been left behind no winners happened to be among the big megacap stocks in technology, bio technology and elsewhere. they are driving the markets higher those are in the plus column for the year i think the market, at one point
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reflected the expected weakness we're seeing the bond market is saying a completely different story we might add that the possibility of negative interest rates, low short term rates reflecting weakness in the economy. stocks are reoriented towards what the economy will look like on the other side of this. not necessarily the fact we have a v shaped recovery in our future >> the that already reflected in valuations particularly of -- you mentioned technology we're positive on the year here. we have gone up very fast in these sectors. >> if it's a secular shifts. we're going to the office fewer days a week. we're having more home deliveries this could be something that's accelera accelerated by the coronavirus and the activity around it that could be long term and maybe not fully reflected in price of these shares. on the other hand you're seeing the bond market worry about the
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weakness and the macro economy it's tale of two market, both may be saying the same thing those companies that are being left behind are being decimated in the stock market or retailers declaring bankruptcy those that will win in the long run continue to move higher. >> david, is there value in this market right now given the lack of clarity >> there's value there's not as much a month ago. you've had a great rally and technology have led that rally there are places that we think are the technology stocks that are at 30 and 40 and 50 full-times eatimes earnings they are not that impacted by what's going on. we think you can buy those even though you have a misrabble economy as long as you have a 12-month outlook companies like cvs had a very good quarter duke energy.
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kellogg doing well at&t doing well. they're selling under 12 times earnings the businesses are doing quite well because there's no sizzle, the stocks haven't done a lot. that's where we think you want to try to navigate this uncertain environment. >> for the stocks you mentioned that are pretty immune to what's going on now, another wave they might not be immune to cvs, at&t at&t with more media sates is more exposed to ad revenue, let's say. >> more exposed than they had been but not that exposed. at some point there's a tremendous disequity between the dismal economic numbers and the stock market it's going to look toward 2021 and in that case it's going to
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really look beyond what's happening in the current quarter, six months, even for there's a second wave or up tick in unemployment. they have really good balance sheets and cash flow you're not paying a lot for them these stocks should be higher 12 months out >> great speaking to you both. the two-year yield hitting a record low let's get more on the bond markets move after the jobs report from rick >> hi, tyler you're focusing on the part of the curvethat the whole world is watching. short maturities are not having a good week. he's look at the chart you can see what i'm talking about. there's this energy that is been broken into and you see it in all the yield curves as well look at tens minus twos.
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really driven by short maturities dropping. it's widest it's been basically since about the 26th of march. even if you look at the knot which is 30s minus 10s, it's the steepest it's been this is really important if i look at all the contracts today that traded over 100 that implies a negative overnight fed funds rate today that would have been anything from october of 2020 all the way out to march of 2022 and beyond this is something the fed ready needs to address because it seems as though traders are pressing to see what type of reaction negative rates get from the predominant central bank of the world, the u.s. fed.
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back to you. thank you very much. coming up, all sectors, 11 of them, positive today with energy leading as the sector continues to snap back along with consumer staple, industrials. we'll have more on the sector out look plus a closer look at retail as stores begin to open in some capacity we'll talk to the ceo of kimco realty about what he's hear frg his top tenants. that's after this quick break. our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence. yeah, they help us with achievable steps along the way... ...so we can spend a bit now, knowing we're prepared for the future. surprise! we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. oooh, well... i'm good at my condo. oh. i love her condo. nana throws the best parties.
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shares up. many malls remain closed because of the coronavirus pandemic, all, all of kimco's shopping centers are open right now with nearly half of its ten nanants considered essential here for a cnbc exclusive to talk about the path forward is connor flynn welcome back good to have you with us >> nice to see you >> all of your malls are open. this is because they are open air malls. many of them are grocery store anchored but you also have essential retailers like building supply and walmart, right? >> that's exactly right. we have really transformed the
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portfolio to be heavily weighted toward grocery anchor centers. it's really delivering at a time like this. most shoppers have been comfortable going to the grocery store. we think that's a good indicator of what's to come when the non-essential will be allowed to open we feel like our shopping centers are uniquely positioned to rebound once they are allowed to open back up fully. >> you've got a percentage of companies that are closed. who have not open either because they voluntarily decided not to or they have been order not to do it. i see in my motes you clekts ec about 60% of the rents billed for the month of april, including 78% from the top ten nantss 40% from those that are closed have you received lots of rent
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deferral requests? >> we have received about 30%. we have been very clear that we believe the large, national retailers that have the balance sheets and the cash on hand to pay their rent should pay their rent that allows us to use the balance sheet to help the small shops, the mom and pop retailers that don't have the cash on hand to allow us to bridge them to other side we think that's the key component to all of this is making sure the small businesses which we believe are the secret ka sauce to the shopping center success make it to the other side >> what has been the reaction of the large retailers been to that stance >> it's case by case scenario. we obviously have long relationships with all of our retailers and the ones that are open are paying, in general. the ones that are closed we're looking to negotiate a bit with the reopenings beginning, we see a light at the end of the tunnel and we're hoping with the restrictions lifted we can see our shopping center snap back.
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>> i agree that mom and pop stores should be helped but at the same time are your malls built an the anchor stores are there agreements where you need to keep the large chain if they are asking for a rent reduction you might be forced or think twice and give it to them in the end >> the nice part is typically you have a grocery anchor and one or two other anchors the clauses are pretty individually specific to multiple anchors having to be closed in an individual shopping center for a long period of time in order for the co-tendency clause to be triggered all are doing well the other anchors are set to reopen shortly those clauses will not be triggered in the current environment. >> tell us about your liquidity position and your debt position. >> we are very, very proud of our lick quidity positions.
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it's one of the first things we made sure to secure. we feel like we're in a position the utilize that balance sheet to help our small shops. >> the data that tyler was saying regarding rent deferrals, they are a deferral. does that happen in your view within the first month of a shutdown or could it happen in month two, three, four i'm trying to get a sense of how long that liquidity will last.
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>> it's a good question. for now we just granted deferrals. we believe with the reopening is starting to occur, ta people recognize it's time to get back to business and hopefully operate in the new normal. that being said, we are watching closely to see how the reopenings go and how long some of the closures are mandated we are trying to work with all of our retailers to make sure we get to the other side so they can be open and operating and successful again >> thank you for coming on today. a broad group of stocks that could ben fits during the outbreak that's up 7% this week we'll tell you the names investors are piling into. crude oil jumping 20% this week alone.
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all right. let's go over to sue for the latest on the coronavirus. >> hello, ty here's what we know at this hour the treasury department says it has sent out stimulus payments to more than 130 million americans in less than five weeks. those payments are worth more than $218 billion. the head of the world health organization is celebrating the 40th anniversary of the eradication of smallpox. a disease that killed 300 million people in the 20th century. he says there are lessons to be learned from this fight that can be used in the current battle against covid-19 >> smallpox is the first and to
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date the only human disease to be eradicated globally it's a reminder of what's possible when nations come together to fight a common health threat. >> and here at home in texas, an american classic is making a comeback thanks to the pandemic. a new drive in theater is getting ready to open in houston on tuesday it will hold as many as 200 cars ticket prices start at $28 per vehicle. it will be pretty popular. as always, for more on our coronavirus coverage you cogo to cnbc.com back to you. thank you very much. the oil market is closing for the day and for the detail ossen that, let's go to dom chu. >> it's rally into the close it's going to be gain today and for the week overall right now u.s. benchmark west
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texas intermediate or wti prices $24.80 that's 5% upside brent crude prices $30.89. that makes it a two week winning streak for oil there's still that building op michl that fuel demand will pick up around the world. a actions also help to give a upward nudge to prices it's the 8th straight week of declining rig counts fewer rigs pumping oil may help counter some of the over supply concerns driving prices lower. big week for oil back over to you thank you very much. let's go now to seema mody >> jim's covid-19 index living up to its mission finding stocks that out perform in the middle
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of a pandemic. the index roughly 100 stocks up 7% this week and has a nearly 27% gain for the year. >> the first under the radar is zoetis we hold in our portfolio it's a spin off from pfizer. they do medicines, vaccines, diagnostic products for pets. if you look at the chart, very strong pattern the bounce back has opinion sbed if we can push through, we should be good to go the kicker is millennials in the social distancing age are likely to own more pets
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the other one, tried and true, netflix. we also hold really strong earnings report. double the expected subscriber growth the releasing original series. that's their model so they have several months in the pipeline the chart looks really solid there's been three higher lows leading to this recent 2020 break out. resistance is broken we like it and we hold it. >> all right john with certain economies starting to reopen, i'm curious whether these stay at home trends can last. >> i mean, i think there are two trends that jim highlights in his index and that's an investment team of growth with income on the growth side i think we have been moving toward the cashless society i think one of the post covid-19 is those this move to more of a cashless society that favors paypal we'll want to avoid getting cash out of our wallets and handing that to someone else we'll do everything seamless and move to a contactless society.
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the amount of activity the federal reserve does will keep interest rates low for a very long we would like stable stocks that pay out a high dividend. we like things like verizon where we have the data component of the business with the strong business model with a dividend yield above 4% and as paying investors north of 5% dividend yield. we think the synergies of the come biepbined companies will gt tremendous cash flow >> themes to watch john and todd, thanks for joining me head to our website or follow us on twitter melissa, back to you still ahead, while unemployment surges, will states roping help bring life back to
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the economy. plus the crypto market surging what's driving it higher undone deals pandemics roll in and busting up 50 apartment sales in new york remember, you can watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app our special breaking news coverage will be right back. the new house is amazing. so much character.
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restaurants are starting to open in many states and summer is just around the corner even though fewer people may take vacations there year, there could still be demand for restaurant workers kate rogers is looking at the story. hey, kate. >> the restaurant industry typically adds about half a million seasonal summer jobs each year. many of which wind up going the teens.
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this summer there's a big question mark around what employment might look like due to the coronavirus pandemic. one in six restaurants operate as a seasonal business so they need the summer revenue to make up for slower times. many are getting creative with curb side delivery, pickup and carry out. we talked to david barrs who he has he's opening for a pick up. >> we would expect the summer for our fast food restaurants to be physical therafairly robust . that's our anticipation. >> restaurant transaction data is starting to look better accord to the npd group.
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another big question is how enhanced unemployment plays into the picture. barr told us his biggest competition is no longer the restaurant across the street it's the unemployment office as that starts to wind down, he's hoping more people will be willing to get back to work in the summer months. back over to you >> thank you coming up on the closing bell, the ceo of bloomin brands. that's 3:00 p.m. today california, north carolina, pennsylvania all taking steps to reopen today while the data from recently reopened states are still very new, some states are seeing different trends in case numbers as testing continues government officials balance their state's economy and their populations health since georgia reopened on april 24th, they have seen a 44% increase in cases. the average of 695 a day this comes as testing has
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increased widely in that state by 115%. maybe they are just uncovering more by virtue of testing more of all those tests in georgia, 14% have been positive meanwhile in louisiana, it's not reopened in the same time frame the state has seen only a 19% increase in cases. a average of 350 a day as testing has increased 46% in louisiana. 15% of the total cases there came back positive as more states move to reopen, let's take a closer look at the economy and the path forward as unemployment spikes to a dreadfdrea dreadful 15% the highest since the great depression we have former mayor of new orleans, ceo and president of the national urban league. it's good to see you as we go through these hard times together do you think that states are moving about right, little too fast what do you think? >> i think many states are mo
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moving too fast. georgia is a case in point 44% increase in number of cases in a short period of time demonstrates that perhaps they were too fast or they didn't put into place the appropriate conditions the return to normalcy has to be done gradually it has to be done in an appropriate way. businesses need guidance we have to avoid gatherings of people this is about people's health. a rebound or a relapse in number of cases that have a devastating effect on the economy of those states that have moved too fast. i think the cdc guidance is probably the best thing. i think the public ought to hold their public officials to be accountable to that guidance as they reopened. every one wants to reopen. without our health, we have nothing. >> you as a former mayor and a very aware of the political
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pressures that mayors and governors would face, i assume you don't have a problem per se with the idea that it is the state's and localities that are making these decisions that makes intuitive sense >> it makes sense in a national frame work of guidelines it's got to be some direction because after all the cdc is possessive of the most and the best information i think to the extent that they create a frame work, a get of guidances and recommends dagss that mayors and governors can follow, it's the best way to do it even here in the state of new york, reopening will be inregio. one size does not fit all even within a particular state. >> white house coronavirus task force did put out some guidelines for the phased reopening but some of the states
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have gotten ahead of those they have moved ahead even though they have not met the guidelines that were put out in those documents. >> that is irresponsible when you're a public official, you've got these broad responsibilitys. you've got fiduciary responsibility and moral responsibility i think those officials that follow the guidance of experts are the ones who will be on solid footing. we're all anxious to get back and guess what while many americans are working from home, there will other americans that are still going to work every day because they are an essential jobs. they are yet now over 30 million american who is have lost their jobs >> i know you and i know you well enough the to know when you see the kind of job loss we had today and have been experiencing, it's absolutely heartbreaking and it is even particularly heartbreaking
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especially for the constituency you follow at the national urban league that would be minority people. african-american, in particular, made a good bit of progress in terms of employment over the past decade and to see that wiped away >> in five weeks the black unemployment rate has quadrup quadrupled in five weeks. the latino rate is up to 18%, even higher than the african-american rate. what does that reflect that reflects that hourly workers, those who work in the service sector were much more likely to lose their jobs. i think some 70% of all job losses are in the service sector this calls for a strong response in the next cares act. look, what could make it worse what would make it worse is states and municipal governments who for the most part have held
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their employment levels firm don't have the money to meet payroll and yet we have millions more who are basically on the unemployment line. that's why i'm a strong supporter. i don't think games should be played we need to create stain blt, funding for teachers sanitation workers, correctional officers and many, many essential employees that work for stats and local governments. let's not play games with that it is going to be a high price tag but this is about the future and the sustain blts of a nation in the midst of the greatest crisis we have seen since the great depression >> great to see you. thank you for being with us. thank you. >> melissa the high end real estate market in manhattan grinding to halt we'll tell you what happened to all those deals signed but not quite done when this all
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when the world went on hold in mid march, many real estate deals that were in contract were canceled and many more were renegotiated at lower prices robert has been b looking at all those deals out there. >> well manhattan's lea right now is basically frozen. last week, there was only one contract that went over $4 million. last time that happened was february of 2009 now deals that were in the works before the lockdown are now falling apart. more than 100 contracts have been broken or canceled since
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early march according to urban digs you had 67 broken in march 43 in april. more are contracts that are being renegotiated that means the buyer put down 10% but threatened to walk without a price cut. brokers say the average price qatar for renegotiating a deal in april was better. somewhere between 10 and 15% of a price cut. that suggests the price cuts for new buy eers this sum e or fall could be in the 15 to 20% range. now the cuts are most dramatic at the top or high-end this upper east side townhouse had been listed for $39 million. went into contract before the lockdown just renegotiated and closed for 25 million 36% below the asking price back to you. >> fas fascinating. i love real estate thank you. >> me, too tyler. >> thank you very much
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just checking my script there. california drowning in red ink as the state is facing a 50 billion deficit. this as it begins to reopen from the coronavirus shutdown jane wells live in huntington beach. hi, jane >> hey, tyler. when we come back, california's unemployment rate is projected to hit 18% higher than the great recessi recession, but places are starting up and here in huntington beach, they're hoping you can make america surf again. that story when we come back
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huntington beach hi, jane >> they've gone from a $21 billion surplus to a projected $43 billion deficit. l almost 9 billion in unemployment paid out u in eight weeks b but the surf shop is next the first time in two months rick has been able to open his doors. >> we did a couple of sales on craig list on the side to help pay the rent had a little savings, but that's the question been business here 30 years, six months from now, i don't know, could be out of business >> he has installed plexy glass by the cash register, hand sanitizer, masks, only going to allow one or two in at a time. they've been pushing to open sooner than later. >> we can respect both keeping businesses open and keeping people safe. >> there are parameters of how people can shop and be safe. everybody adheres to that, we'll
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be good to go. >> it's great for the economy and good to back to normal >> i'm worried the cure is going to be worse than the disease >> i have to say, guys, up in l.a. county, most people are wearing masks. down here, not so much back to you. >> why do you think that is? the spirit in orange county is different or they feel less threatened by the virus? >> i think part of it is here along the coast, it's a much more open area there's not that much dense housing. at the same time, even though this congressional district flipped democrat last election, this is still pretty much a republican area of orange county and a a lot of people are now as equally concerned about economic health as they are physical health and they're over it tyler,he or tirveit >> thanks very much. we'll get a final check on the markets right after this [squeaky shopping cart] [sniffing]
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a check on bitcoin around $10,000 crossing above that level for the first time since late february paul tudor jones has been buying it as an inflation hedge and we'll hear from him monday on squawk box discussing bitcoin which he called equivalent to gold in the 1970s and his take on these markets >> he was a classmate of mine at the university of virginia let's look at the markets now and as you probably know, really moving, zooming higher we on a zoom call? no we're not. dow industrials up 1.5%. s&p, about one and a a third nasdaq, about one and a quarter and the russell, up 3% on this day. that is what we got and i think behind me folks, just to make me feel comfortable, they have put
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the fireplace back in. i can feel the warmth on my back i feel i'm back in my kitchen. this just is so nice maybe i'll come back again who knowsment. >> that's amazing. if only we had like heat tvs so we could feel it as well >> we're going to serve smores from my kitchen. >> have a great weekend. >> our breaking news coverage continues now into the last hour of trading with the folks on the closing bell >> looks incredibly realistic. thank you very much for that welcome to the closing bell. stocks much higher yet again albeit in the face of tragic economic data. 59 minutes left in this trading day and week let's have a look at what's driving the action the u.s. economy lost more than 20 million jobs in april a stunning number and steepest plunge in payrolls since the great depression officials point to a bottoming of economic pain and relative recovery in the last
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