catch-up to be done even if things come back even if we're at a stall point in the index at the moment >> i just think that the cnbc interviews with ceos lately have given us a really good, clear, realtime indication of what they're expecting when they open up because the economic data is stale and that's how the market is treating it so we need to keep watching those and also from the earnings reports and the conference calls next week, i'll be watching under armour on friday >> to everyone watching, a happy mother's day to sara in particular, happy mother's day and melissa lee who picks up now. "fast money" starts right now. tonight's trader lineup, guy adami, tim seymour, brian kelly and when technology permits, hidden figures, the one thing missing from today's record jobs report that could have a huge impact on your money and something happened in china that's a bullish sign for disney what it is and how the traders are playing it and later, get

ready for the having sounds like a horror film, but it's not everything you need ton about the major event about to take place in the cryptocurrency world. we start with the historic jobs report more than half a million people put out of work. the market rallied with the dollar ending higher and the volatility index dropping below its 1 hun-d00-day moving averag. when unemployment skyrockets to nearly 15%, do you think the stock market would be down but it didn't. so guy adami, what do you make of that? one would think and one would be -- myself, absolutely look, i definitely saw the move back to 2790 we talked about that for a while and kudos to tim who i use the word all of the time and the pain trade is higher and here we are. what do i make of it

when look wid siquidity is slosg around and it's good that we're talking about disney later because the market's clearly in my favorite area of disneyland which is fantasy land and at 3393 when the s&p 500 made an all-time high we were talking about a 21.5 times multiple and that's assuming $160 worth of earnings if you give the market 130 now which is also fantasy, the market's more expensive today than it was at all-time highs and i think it was something to think about as we head into the weekend, mel >> something seemed to change about the rally that we saw today and yesterday as well, tim. that is the breadth of this rally. it wasn't just the five biggest tech stocks making their way and they did do quite nicely with info technology becoming positive for the year and we did see, for instance, the russell up strongly today. the s&p 500 did a better than

the old s&p 500 and what do you make of that, is that more positive, perhaps? it's absolutely more positive. brent and crude prices are up another 5% so this isn't space mountain either, though i think you have a case here where you have still very much a chasm between the haves and the have notes of the covid-19 stock market and then you kind of have main street versus digital street or electric avenue as eddie grant said you have these main street stocks which are banks and are industrials and are obviously the direct hit on covid-19 airlines, cruise lines, et cetera and then you have what we talked about which are the bank stocks and ultimately, i do think you have a case here where you're starting to get more confidence as some of the country reopens. i think we're going see this in cycles and i think this is again partly just about market positioning and i still think there are a lot of equity shorts and under weights if you look at the positioning of the spy as an

etf and it's still relative to where we are in the bottom and in terms of the retail audience as opposed to professional audience and they are where they were in march in terms of bearishness and i don't think equities are on the upside over the next two to three weeks and we need to see the companies open up and the realities will tick back in i don't want see a mass run for the exits because i still think a lot of people are not here >> think the other question is the jobs report that we saw this morning, is that going to mark the worst of it? i don't know i mean, is there going to be another way ahead, for instance? >> right that's the biggest question out there are we looking at temporary or permanent job losses and so i think that will go to what's going on in the stock market the other thing that you have in the stock market and they've taken away any price discovery what so ever

so the stock market will increasingly get disconnected from the real economy, but i think going forward if we look at them and say being on, in three months, in six months what's the unemployment rate going to be like does it permanently stay high at 12% or 10% then you will have erosion of earnings then i think the stock market might start to think about, okay, this is not the environment that we'd anticipated. i think it would be very hard for it to make new high, but i've been proving wrong before >> guy, it is a friday show. i don't want to be a debbie downer take a look at this chart or imagine it in your mind, the former fda commissioner and this shows u.s. it dial -- which

shows that piengs getting better and isn't that a massively, bullish, op mystic guy for us? >> if the only reason you believe the market is here is because of covid and things associated with it then i guess the answer is yes, and clearly, i think we're all wishing for the day where this is eradicated much like smallpox was, for example, but i don't think we're that close so until woe get a vaccine it's very hard for me to get giddy in terms of where we are on the health front, but i understand what people are looking at i also just want to say that it is so unfortunate for all those people named debbie out there that downer has to be associated with the back end of that. why not denise downer or donna downer which is actually better if you think about it, but i digress. >> or dan downer in honor of dan nathan

>> i wonder yet debbie association out there doesn't contact with us hate mail. we have jeff mill, thanks to technology, what do you make of jeff's action this week which is broader than pasts moved higher. >> hi, melissa yes. finally made it, thankfully. i'll go back to the narrative during this entire rally and it does seem that flows out of equities and flows out of money market funds and cft positioning still pretty net short i don't know that the spark is necessarily there for a major and violent move lower at this point. i think we got past the week of big tech earnings and that was a particularly concentrated area of vulnerability in the market so if there was a big disappointment that could have been the catalyst. so the pain trade may be higher, but looking out past a few weeks or maybe a month or so, i still think that we'll be dealing with

the economic, fundamental issue, and it looks like the data will be so bad, we'll be, and it's really just unbelievable to see. i think the markets having a hard time internalizing that data and figuring out what to do with it, by and large it seems to be ignoring it and ultimately, i don't think that will be possible i think of what 2021 earnings will look like at 16a 5 or 170 a share right now seems way too high for me and the multiple that the market will have to carry to support where markets are today are higher and it's just going to be too high, i think, to sustain current levels and i also don't believe that we're gifted some high multiple just because interest rates are low. we've taken it off our clients just because of anticipation about volatility in the data.

>> let's bring in steve liesman. great to have you with us. we've been throwing this around with the traders about the notion that this could be the worst in terms of job losses and should we be expecting another wave because obviously, the first waves were the lower paying jobs and are we now going to get into the cycle where we see the professionals, the higher paying jobs and potentially a bigger hit to the economy? >> it's a definite possibility, melissa. you would get to the point where if there's nobody to boss around, it's possible this goes into a white collar round of layoffs, as well just as an example, the unemployment rate for those with less than a high school diploma is above 21% for those with a bachelor degree or hire it's 8.4%. you would think that would be your managerial class, those with the college degrees and they've been affected a little bit by this. i want to come back to one

thing, melissa, this idea of the fed put. the fed put is in a totally different place from where it has been the fed put is if the market goes down a lot the fed will lower interest rates and that will stick with you and help the stock market the fed on put in this case is the coming corporate bond facility the fed has a put on equity in the sense that if the fed wasn't there buying bonds and those bonds went into default the equity could be wiped out. the fed doesn't have to buy stocks here because effectively the stock has put a floor on these stocks it's that guarantee, essentially because the jet won't go bad tht's huge part of the rally in the markets. >> it's extraordinary that this is a blank, cor rat guarantee for corporate america and the fed has not spent a single penny

on it and we are on the high yield market and what happens, steve, with the blanket debt guarantee. what's left when the fed is left holding the bag. if this lasts longer and it's know just a short-term liquidity crunch and a short-term period of recession and no snap back recovery, things are more protected and as you say, companies do, in fact, see their equity wiped out >> melissa, i want to apologize that it's a blanket guarantee. it's not a blanket guarantee there are some restrictions on and it's four-year, and it's not everybody and it's obviously not all speculative debt and they're buying that, but they will buy some especially the fallen angels i don't know what happens when the fed, if it should perhaps end up as an owner of these things and i haven't seen all of the rules yet for this program i thought it was going to be announced this week. i'm not sure why it wasn't i'm almost certain it will happen next week and you were

right about the powerful effect it's had in the corporate bond market you've had companies like boeing come to market, all kind of companies. >> seaworld, i mean -- >> some companies -- >> seaworld. >> norwegian, ual and the list goes on and on and on here i think guy has a question sorry to interrupt you, steve. >> steve, thanks for sticking around there's been a lot of chatter written about potentially negative interest rates in the united states. inside the fed, and i know you're not there, but i know you know people. what are their views on potentially negative interest rates here in the united states? >>. >> negative interest rates gets a double thumbs down from all of the people i know at the federal reserve. i think there are so many things they would do before they went to negative interview thes that they haven't even thought of what they would do they may be forced there, but it goes back to the conversation

that you and apologies to melissa of why she even brought me on the show with the jobs mark story d there is a debate saying this is the worst of it and i have some people saying there will be positive employment in may based on the reopenings. other economists are saying to me, look, there's another 10, 12, 15 million americans who will lose their job and that's from the second wave of economic job losses and the first, wave,the pliers didn't have the restaurant to supply and you see that in these jobs numbers you can imagine the fed to increase these programs, guy you can imagine they can make the rules already and that would come before the fed was negative >> we have you on the show because we loved speaking to

you. >> have a great weekend. >> steve liesman, it sounds like it could be a market-moving event when the fed actually releases the rules by which they will follow their corporate bond buying program, brian kelly and i wonder if there are two reasons why there might be pressure and the release of the rules and getting more clarity on that and also when the fed starts being, should you be selling to the fed, basically? >> the short answer is yes, or the answer to the second question is yes, there is an all of lot of hedge fund money, speculative money that are just waiting to brought the fact. >> there a a huge difference between liquidety and, but if the economy is not robust enough

then you have a solvency issue and the fed will be left holding the bag. the print will go brrr, and i'm not terribly worried about it, but i do think that the market has want priced in the potential for insolvencies. >> we've got some breaking news on jewel don chu has the story. >> the juul, taking the writedown. juul labs says and this is according to an internal memo provided to us by a spokesperson at juul is basically saying that as of the end of december the company's private valuation according to its own books and models is roughly $20 billion. as of currently, it is now being written down to roughly $13 billion. so a fairly large writedown. perhaps no surprise, melissa and guys because we know there's been a series of writedowns including one of its biggest shareholders and that is altria

the biggest u.s. tobacco giant which even earlier this year took the investment by four-some billion dollars and altria's investment of 35% of juul is worth closer to that $5 to $5 billion range and this is juul saying this is what they're doing to reflect some of the issues happening right now and i will say this, in a statement they said that they took this step as they continued to reset the vapor category and build the company for the long term. the valuation refreks the overall will have tillity in the, another set of writedowns >> altria was your private one yesterday. >> i think altria has priced this in. i think it got out there and the equity analyst team following altria understands this dynamic.

the value in juul right now is as much the customer base, and i think that's something that altria owns, but altria is heavily discounted and everything that's going on in vape in my view. >> coming up, it's a small world after all. we'll tell you what just happened in china that sent disney shares soaring as the crypto world gears up for the great having bk will give you everything you need to know stay with us save hundreds on your wireless bill

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it's the most reliable wireless network. and it could save you hundreds. xfinity mobile. welcome back to "fast money. apple popping on news that it will reopen u.s. stores next week check out shares of disney jumping as disneyland shanghai opens. the tickets sold out in just minutes and the park will operate at 30% capacity and the

visitors must wear masks at all times. no parade, fireworks and social distancing for the rides and no up-close pictures with mickey or any of the other characters and that's a draw for kids and jeff, you might know a thing about this, too. you like disney, do you think this will givek reopening could mean and look like >> yeah. i think it's one of the best data points that we have right now. there's a question if they open it will they come? this goes a long way to answering that question and speaking about my kids i would rather drag them around disney world at 30% capacity than when it's busting at the seams of people and this may be more of an incentive for folks to want to go. even if it's operating at 30, 40, 50%, at whatever capacity disney decides to open the parks the ticket demand will be there. this is a good sign. thinking longer term, disney+ continues to shine and the

company is able to innovate and do it successfully, so i think that's a good quality for the company longer term and this is my chart of the week a couple of weeks ago and it's done well since then and it's still down 25% for the year so i think the price is still reflecting some of the challenges that the company's likely to face in the coming quarters, but it's peaked above the 50-day moving average. so i think you have some room here and i would want to own it. >> the question is if 30% capacity becomes 100% capacity, guy, and i know that's a mind twister. it might be confusing, but imagine if this is the new normal for disney, is that profitable and does that make the stock work >> well, if they can sell those drew barrymore light sabers for three times than they were selling it before, it works. i don't think 30% will be the new norm do you think we'll be back in

the near future at what was 100% i think want i harken back to what rich bernstein recently said, i think it was rich bernstein, and i harken back to the word on the street column in the journal talking about the cash flow problem, and i talk about tom rogers with his sort of tepid view on where disney is right now. so the stocks have had a great run post-earnings, but remember, still trades expensively and earnings were down, i think 63% year over year which just think about that for a second for a company like disney. >> coming up, bitcoin briefly breaking above $10,000 so where is it headed from here bk is opening up his playbook and calling a cruel comek bah, why they're on big bets of an energy breakout. we have the details when we come right back low sugar. so good. high protein. low sugar. mmm, birthday cake. and try pure protein shakes, with 24 vitamins and minerals.

>> welcome back to "fast money." the cryptocurrency breaking from $10,000 for the first time since february and of course, b.k., we're counting down to the having at this point apparently, we're having an issue with brian kelly's sound

and part of the rise in bitcoin was paul tudor jones, reportedly saying he's investing in bitcoin and comparing it to gold in the 1907s and the bitcoin having and we'll talk to b.k. more about what's happening next week by the way, "squawk box" will have an interview with the legendary investor paul tudor jones on monday at 8:30 eastern time to get his take on bitcoin as well as his robinhood foundation and that group will put on a telethon and join tina fey for rise up new york city to support the city and the state hardest hit by the coronavirus this monday at 7:00 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc, but of course, paul tudor jones the big headline here for monday first thing in the monday on "squawk box. brian kelly, do we have you back >> can you hear me now >> we know that the bitcoin in

the past has risen, and everybody bes thknows that now. >> it could be a sell the news event and that's what everyone is anticipating and i can go on the other side and where is the pain trade here? the pain trade is higher you saw a decline in the first 30 to 60 days after the happening happened. >> right >> but we didn't have an environment like we have today >> let's do a quick final trade. jeff mills so i still like some of the stay at home stocks and electronic arts is one of them, and i think it might have some legs. the profits have exploded in the last couple of months and it has a great balance sheet and it's up quite a bit at only 11 earnings i like it here e.a. >> tim >> chip stocks have been flying, too and nvidia has exploded effectively back to all-time highs to that level back in mid-february i think you tap the brakes here.

while they're involved in exciting parts of the chip space, the multiples are inflated and it's time to push to fresh highs >> guy, quick? >> listen, happy mother's day to my wife and all of the moms out there and mel for the first time ever, happy mother's day to u.yo nike. >> thank you don't go anywhere. o.a. is up next. ♪

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happy friday, options actions fans we have a big show lined up for you. here's what's on deck. first up -- >> the energy. >> don't get spooked carter worth thinks the demons may have been exorcised from the energy sector. then -- >> stock junk -- it's stock junk. >> or is it? >> tony thinks it is a way of a yield to yield you high returns. finally -- >> tesla fell madly in love with a pigeon. >> and that would not be the weirdest thing that happened