the markets in the last 15 seconds. we have a good day going 24,500 where the dow is. s&p around the key level keep your eye on that. certainly as well. we are back to early march levels for stocks. thanks so much for watching. kelly evans picks up the breaking news coverage right now. thank you, scott welcome, everybody on this monday, coronavirus is sending stocks surging today with the dow and s&p having the strongest day in more than a month. all three up for a third straight day positive for may so far. a big rally in oil helping sentiment. crude around $32 a barrel. we'll have more on that in a moment take a look at the sectors and the markets first to see the gains that i'm tacking about the dow up 824 opponents 3.5% gain now practically. 86 points higher for the s&p a 3% gain. the nasdaq the laggard having outperformed for the recovery.

i mentioned the senior citizen -- sectors. we are leading with energy today with a 7% gains. financials are also among the best performers. industrials up 6% so some of the least liked parts of the market leading the way back health care is actually the least strong performer today still all in the green as you might have discerned the reopening trade, we have seen the trades all day, remarkable gains here that's also really leading the way higher let's get more from bob pisani. >> kelly, this is a triple whammy today general positive comments from jay powell last night and moderna on the vaccine and then a nice move in oil and commodity stocks, the metals are all also moving on hopes. remember, hopes for the reopening, medical breakthrough, fed intervention, the big three to move the market

take a look at travel and entertainment stocks, a simple way to look at the market. how's the hotels doing today and the airlines airlines are burning through cash like crazy right now. they have gone essentially nowhere. they have one or two-day rallies and no break out also rallying, energy stocks a heartbreaker four or five days they're all up no breakouts they get rallies but not breaking out in any major way. remember all that stay-at-home stuff that did so well like zoom, for example, some of the food stocks. they're a little bit weaker today. finally a net on the s&p 500, we are starting to break out a little 2939, the old recent high at the end of april we've broken out above that. we can close above that. now into march at these levels

and this does matter not a 52-week high and breakouts like this, oh yeah, people notice back to you. >> you know where else we have a breakout and a significant one today is chipotle up 3% and crossed above $1,000 a share for the first time and i guess we have all become used to these $1,000 marks for the average share but for chipotle today and doubled off the lows it is a pretty strong continued comeback for this stock. >> yeah. but there's another company that's a takeout story and if people are going out more, the restaurants are also rallying today. fast casual restaurants rallying big today so yeah. you notice companies don't split the shares anymore and that's a bit of a problem overall this is really used to be a common trend 10, 20 years ago. that's why you get $1,000 stocks. >> that's why people going to robinhood and schwab to trade in $1 increments. thanks. now let's get to the breakthrough coronavirus story

of the day shares of moderna surging after positive results for the human trial for a vaccine. let's get to meg tirrell here with the latest to sort through what we need to know about this. hi, meg. >> hey, kelly. the analyst reaction coming in and jpmorgan saying that the phase one results quote appear to be about as promising as one could hope for but they are preliminary let's see what the data showed us in that phase 1 trial, the company enrolled 45 participants between 18 and 55. received two doses of this experimental vaccine one month apart and showed antibodies after being vaccinated but what's important are within that is block the virus from being able to infect cells they had data on eight patients for the neutralizing antibodies and all eight did develop those important antibodies saying safety-wise generally well

tolerated and planning a phase 3 trial in july with the phase 2 trial planned to start imminently this is a timeline we have never seen before in vaccine development. they started the first trial in march after developing the sequence in january. now the question turns to manufacturing. they have signed on with lonza to try to manufacture up to a billion doses of this per year and since people get two doses, that would be enough for 500 million people so in addition to manufacturing questions, there's also questions of price and something we asked the ceo about this morning on "squawk box." >> we need to stop thinking about pricing. as you can appreciate, we know it's a pandemic. people are waiting for a product and we have to figure out what's the right price. >> so, kelly, thinking about this now but he says they've been working at such speeds on the project they haven't really

thought about it yet so that's the next major question. >> you mentioned that this is a timeline we have never seen before and never had a vaccine result from this scientific approach before. again, i'm no expert on the science but is that true that it's the rna or messenger rna that itself is completely unpredented to have an approved vaccine? >> yes messenger rna has never been brought to market as a drug or as a vaccine moderna is a leader in the technology and does have multiple other programs to show later stage data than this and it appears promising and you are right. it is not brought across the finish line and there are a lot of questions about the technology being brand new it can no long and about the virus being brand new virus. >> true, no, i think it raises reasons to be cautious and optimistic and we'll talk to michael ye about that next block. we appreciate the latest there that moderna news on the heels

of remarks from the federal reserve chairman on "60 minutes" last night >> in the long run, and even in the medium run, you wouldn't want to bet against the american economy. it will recover. may take a while may take a period of time. could stretch through the end of the next year. we don't know. >> chair powell added that the fed is not out of ammunition, not by a long shot markets took notice of that. joining for me is david harden and meekal kushma. david, i'll start with you and welcome to you both. so we have a lot of thing, the remarks of chair powell, the moderna news and so much more. are we getting kind of too ahead of ourselves here about what this all means for the economy or frankly moving into a period of time to get back to normal?

>> from a valuation perspective, we are definitely not normal we are still very, very high but it is good news, welcomed news we want it to work and hope it does work so we're positive about that from a market's perspective we have seen the market recover and it's hard to fight against the fed. right? but if you look at the economy on the other hand, we're struggling and there's a separation there and that separation is larger than it's been in other down markets and takes time illn't bet against america that's for sure but i would bet on companies doing well in this time frame and cautiously optimistic looking for the buys and the right opportunities, watching out for overvalued stocks. >> amazon is a top holding you like big health and pharma names. but i want to go back to valuation, especially if these are some of the names you like when you say that we're still very, very high, explain that a little bit more. are we high in the sense that we

have been structurally higher for a decade-plus or do you think right now compared with last year valuations are too high >> i think from a standpoint of the market fundamentals what earnings are happening, we have companies not earning as much as they need to, they're not having to be -- having struggles with employment we have 35 million plus people unemployed right now that's the economy that's the reality of the fundamentals when you have zoom which is more than all seven of the top airlines combined, its valuation is very, very large and the ceo said we won't make much money off the clients so i think you have companies overextndended in this market. but you mentioned zoetta we like the pet friends. they increase 12% in the second quarter in that market share that's a good name to be in

right now. >> no. but you can't train your dog to bring in -- i guess he could bring in the newspaper and not with the cat and my 2-year-old is pretty good of bringing in the newspaper. it's like if my dog from growing up brought in the newspaper i would be just as amazed. michael, let's talk to you about fixed income and what's happening on the bond yield side we have the 20-year note auctioned for the first time ever is this an appropriate move? should we be doing more long-term debt for the u.s. economy? what are your thoughts >> it's a good question. certainly there's a lot of government bond issuance by the u.s. treasuries and governments around the world to fund their fight and economic dislocations caused by the pandemic so trimming some debt out makes sense. 30-year debt under -- about 1.3% or so, so it's a low rate so trimming it out makes sense because it's a long-term interest costs not that high

if this is a short-term phenomenon, do you want to lock in long-term debt at these yields probably still makes sense because it's so low so i think it's a good policy of the treasury to fund themselves across the maturity spectrum and not overload the market or the friends of the yield curve assuming it goes away in a short period of time. >> let's circle back to what the fed chair said last night. is it news to you that he says that they're never out of ammunition and can continue to do more to support the markets >> i think that is not news to me i'm an economist by training and i'm a big believer that central banks have not unlimited, not an unlimited fire power but certainly the united states and decide for the economy and plus the status as a reserve currency really help the u.s. be able to run very aggressive policies

both fiscal and monetary so effectively the fed can do what the bank of japan did and buy up every treasury that the treasury auctions along the way and fund the deaf sit and print money along the way with inflation going down not up. there's no immediate concerns about the inflationary consequences of what they're doing and they can keep printing money as long as they like unless it causes a major inflation problem. >> all right david, you are not investing in energy names >> not right now we are still cautious there. there's good names of chevron and exxon but we're more looking at the consumer and it's very low demand in energy right now. >> yeah, no. i do that to set up the next discussion and we don't see a lot of people wanting to pick energy right now david, michael, thank you both we appreciate it today. >> thanks for having us. >> we'll talk about oil. what a difference a month makes. from negative $37 a barrel to

positive $30 and change today. we're about 10% just a little bit less just on this session alone and crude is now up about 80% in the past month. let's bring in brian sullivan for more analysis. when's behind today's jump >> there's a lot of things there. it is nice to see a positive momentum in a sector that feels like the 1970s new orleans saints you just heard the guest say nobody wants to talk about energy let's talk about energy if we can. first off, nobody's saying energy prices are up we are not at zero and that's important. when you factor in opec plus, g20, u.s., probably look at 17 million barrels a day that have been taken off the market. the biggest, fastest global cut ever the u.s. certainly a part of that how much is cut off? we don't really know we don't have an opec to set quotas most estimates probably a million and a half barrels a day coming out of the united states.

the big thing that occurred is fear of the tanks topping. sent the contract negative that has been relieved the tanks, they're still full but not overflowing and that is provided storage relief and why aren't they overflowing? we are driving again this is the national -- i like to look at the city chart but this is america in general u.s. mobility. look at the red. creeping back up to the baseline of where we were not as many people are computmug but mass transit is low. used car sales taking off. everyone will drive if they can. no one on mass transit gasoline demand is coming back aggressively u.s. producers reducing supply by cutting off future supply

oil rigs, we talk about the rig count on your show every friday at 1:00. how dramatic the numbers are a year ago more than 800 operating rigs today below 300. everybody getting back behind the wheel at least a little bit. that helps. >> no. you know, the easiest indicator of this driving back and forth from the office every day and lakes longer and longer and more and more traffic and heard an idea of a lot of people about whether this will spur new car sales or used car sales and don't want ride sharing or mass transit. that would have a net neutral affect on gasoline demand i imagine but maybe a hopeful sign for those in the business of selling cars. >> i've been talking about this for a couple weeks now my buddy owns a car dealership in new jersey. sold 61 cars in the last 10 days, a normal month is 60 cars

so he did -- he actually did more cars in the first 15 days of may than all of may of last year new car dealership but one guy, he's booming. other car dealers we have talked to doing well, as well, because people want cars, used or new. >> we'll hear stories about the stuff not coming back. there's stuff that might benefit. brian, thanks. we appreciate it such a huge turnaround story for oil today. coming up, investors big and small flocking into bio tech i huge numbers we'll look at the names. larry lindsay said there's dangerous myths out there shaping government funding he joins with us the warning ahead. take a look at the retail stocks that are soaring today. l brands up 18%. capri up 14% "the exchange" will be right back

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welcome back bio tech has been crushing it. the sector roundly outperforming the s&p as a host of companies are working on major innovations in the fight against coronavirus. everyone from institutional to retail investors betting on bio tech these days. and the momentum could continue. here to go inside this trade is michael ye, managing director at

jeffries i guess my main question for you is kind of let's skip what we think investors are doing. what would your advice be? where do you think this bio tech do you think people should be putting the money? >> thank you for the question. one thing is particularly with the improving backdrop of political rhetoric and improving sentiment around the fda we believe that the large cap bio techs, the amgens of the world, great companies can continue to move higher. the stocks out of favor for a year or two years. they can move higher and second part is we're telling people to be more cautious, a little bit more hesitant of the euphoria and froth that we're seeing in some of the moves in the smaller mid-cap companies that have had vicious moves to the upside with covid-related developments and to be more cautious given the recent run. >> that's understandable absolutely we have seen that the last

couple of weeks. regeneron is involved with coronavirus and i think working on a vaccine would you recommend that because of the potential exposure there, in spite of it or disregarding it >> yeah. well, we are telling people with these companies that have covid developments, whether that's regeneron, i think gilead top of mind for a lot of folks, is while those are positive developments and from a short-term trading perspective, keeping the news flow and the sentiment positive around the stocks, you know, we are advising people that there is going to be limited or at least hard to value stock appreciation out of those just because those are going to be difficult to price and difficult to monetize. make sure that companies like a regeneron which are the huge antibody drugs discovery pipeline behadwin it or gilead which have a lot of things going

on behind covid are able to back support some of the longer term -- >> i'm reminded by the companies hurt by the coronavirus focus and merck, for example, others where kind of a routine visit, the cancer treatments, they're not seeing the numbers they once did and not bio tech per se but is that affecting the way to invest across the sector are there catch-up trades to make, for example? i guess this is a two-part question then because i before you go wanted to get your thoughts on moderna and on whether this messenger rna is too risky to bette on right now or whether it represents the dawn of a whole new era and investing opportunity. >> yeah. so to your first question about sort of an impact with covid and the disruption in health care system, we're not seeing a huge impact and that was one of the big analysis we came out of not only recently as a short-term disruption and you are starting

to see volumes come back but because of the names like amgen with impact with a lot of hospital-based drugs, the stocks had been so out of favor for a year or two. they're trading so cheap that there's a lot of room for those types of stocks to move up, not because of the short-term disruption but the longer term value people are seeing out of that and saying about that on the names. on the moderna front, there's a lot of questions around how much we can have confidence in some of that recent data today. this is an important first step. generating antibodies. it is important for the platform from a safety perspective and manufacture and ramp that up and all positive developments early and will have to have to wait for data in hundreds if not thousands of patients that are ramped up in phase 2 good news is just that j&j is coming behind them, pfizer with data coming imminently.

>> you're not saying that people necessarily need to place bets on moderna right now >> there's a huge run in that stock and questions around the vicious move up to the upside. great for the platform and i think there's a consensus how it's difficult to justify. >> i squeezed a lot in there but as always i appreciate it. i know you can cover so much ground michael ye e of jeffries thank you. >> thank you. auto stocks moving higher. we'll have the details on those moves. also some positive news out of a major airline and is warren buffett the last man standing coming to investing in the big financials? remember to watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc p.ap woman: my reputation was trashed online.

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we are at session highs right now. let's get to the very latest in the coronavirus pandemic over to su herera for our headlines. sue? >> thank you, kelly. good afternoon, everyone new york mayor bill deblasio says new york city probably will not start to reopen until next month, with construction, manufacturing and landscaping leading the way in the first half of june. target is extending hero pay, its $2 per hour temporary wage increase through july 4th, going to full and part time hourly employees at stores and also at distribution centers. american express is telling employees working from home that they should plan on doing that through the rest of the year it plans to gradually reopen offices saying the work environment will be completely different than it was before i'm sure that's the case for a number of businesses as always, get more on the coronavirus coverage going to

cnbc.com kelly, back to you. >> thank you very much let's get to shares of delta air lines up 13% today granted off a big decline the last couple of movants. the airlines says it will fly in june at a severely reduced capacity phil lebeau has the latest for us phil >> this is welcomed news, not a big surprise and seeing it with a number of airlines where they're saying, how much have we pulled back in the last several months or last couple of months? we'll gradually start to add flights. keep in mind that as they add back a few flights on a few routes in june they're still down 85% for the second quarter compared to the flight schedule last year. and that's likely the case for the other major airlines but the optimism of a potential vaccine for the coronavirus, whether it comes later this year, next year, you know, that optimism which is filling the market, that's pushing the airline stocks higher.

look at united up more than 20%. you don't see a pop like that often and finally take a look at shares of ryanair. today the company's ceo was on cnbc in europe and he said that he's targeting 50% to 60% load factors this summer. he said he'll be happy with that as they slowly start to bring back travel and expect travel to resume in europe kelly? >> phil, we were just with brian sullivan talking of car sales and how some people are looking to buy a car to avoid ride sharing. the big three are opening but what's the balance between they think demand is coming back and trying to make sure that workers wont get sick? >> they have taken a number of steps. safety protocols in place from temperature checks going in to staggered starts at the shifts to keeping the workers who are on the assembly line within a foot or two of each other keeping them more spread out,

those have been well established over the last couple of weeks in terms of this is what we're going to do. this is a gradual resumption of production here. what you are going do see is plants with three shifts starting at two shifts and then over the next several weeks to add more shifts and increase production take a look at ford, gm, fiat chrysler, toyota, they're watching the parts production in mexico that is supposed to begin today. if that goes through without any problems, if you see the parts suppliers sending the parts up to the u.s., then you'll see production increase and finally take a look at the auto dealers. they are running low on certain models we have talked about the demand for pickup trucks, full sides. you talk with dealers making it clear that people are looking for those right now and so this helps that they get the production going, especially of trucks to help that supply on the dealer lots. >> absolutely.

group 1 up 16% thank you very much. appreciate it. >> you bet. coming up, influence of the big banks and the financials is shrinking. the senior citizen or tctor's l the s&p. plus everyone can be made financially whole from the lockdown, a big myth that former director larry lindsey said we need to let go of. and let's take a look at the stocks hitting all-time highs ipleda chot over $1,000 a share we're back in two. this is decision tech.

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welcome back let's get to dom chu for a check

on the markets as we are near session highs and also some of today's biggest movers dom? >> what you are seeing is just about the session highs for the major indices. nasdaq is the laggard on the day as the others play catch-up. the nasdaq up 7% over a month. the dow up around 1% by the way, take a look at the one year to date chart of this because this area is a stalling out point over the last month or so from a sector perspective energy, industrials and financials leading the way higher and laggards are communication services, health care and consumer staples. stocks to watch today is tied to the health of the u.s. consumer, restaurant stocks like darden. optimism there growing about the easing of business restrictions and people easing back into dining out home builders like pulte higher

and shares of uber higher after the company continues its merger talks with grubhub and will cut additional 3,000 jobs and shut offices. kelly, back over to you. >> that wall is harder than it looks. you make it look so easy. >> practice, that's all it is. >> makes perfect thank you, sir. the financials are enjoying a day in the green, as well. the sector had a rough go lately they make up less than 10% of the s&p 500 and more bad news in the 13f filings, financials with the largest drop in allocations. my next guest says that buffett is close to record bank holdings w. me is mike mayo from wells fargo. mike, good to have you welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> you know, it is really noteworthy of all the things to

be invested in, warren buffett holds the banks and trimmed jpmorgan and sold goldman we pnc, u.s. bank, you know, bank of america, the list goes on why do you think they continue to see value in this sector and don't see that with the airlines and other distressed names >> well, there is a lot -- first, these are sobering times. you have record unemployment, bankruptcies, bank loan losses up two to three times and we have a deep "u" modeled out for a recovery and nothing easy about this scenario. the bank stock valuations are record low relative to the stock market as a whole when you look at the book value so for starters the valuations are quite incredible the excitement really is building for bank stocks like ever since friday night with warren buffett i see attendance as the conference this week up three times the level from a year ago

so investors are coming back to bank and warren buffett has been there and still there, 97% of where he was before. >> right >> most to wells fargo but he also added to u.s. bank corp. and there's three main reasons number one, long term the structural transition of the banking industry transcends the recession. goliath is winning big banks serving customers better pnc is accelerating ten years of digital change in two months second would be the medium term, barngs ha banks have the strongest balance sheets in ten years and third short term and anyone who looks at normalized earnings over time like a warren buffett says interest rates will not stay at this level forever the 10-year treasury yield to double by the end of the year. >> okay. >> if that's the case watch bank stocks go up over the long term

and short term. >> i'm so glad you made that point because that's where i wanted to pick up. as i was thinking about this discussion i saw a chart in w l "wall street journal" over the weekend showing price to book for major japanese banks >> you're around like 70% of book value. >> right so .7, .8, yeah. >> yeah. so if you go -- look could it go lower? we got down to - >> .3. it is .3 in japan. this is my point i'm the last person thinking america will go the way of japan but we're literally reading out of they playbook everything they have done pretty much we're doing so as much as i would love to say i totally get the financials here, makes sen to me and berkshire, what if the way in which negative rates and the rest of it has hurt europe, has hurt japan and these bank valuations over a decade, that could happen here, couldn't it

>> well look if we modeled out a v-shaped recovery, a u-shaped recovery and an l-shaped recover rain if we wind up having a recession and japan with zero rates for five years then bank stocks today are fairly valued so you get a free call option for anything better than that. and the comparison with japan has come up more often with discussions with investors and i'd point out, number one, i think the u.s. economy believes more in creative destruction bankruptcies, allowed to happen. you are seeing it. number two, banks are much more efficient and willing to take the tough action with the expenses when needed number three, you certainly have a much more, you know, dynamic economy with immigration when that's allowed to continue once again. number four, much more fee revenues, the largest bank fees almost half of revenues. that is a big difference

you have a lot more consumer loans that the japanese banks don't have so the comparison with japan starts with the low rate environment that we have today but then i think it falls off a cliff. anything better than a japan scenario see the bank stops up. >> great points. thank you for joining me and appreciate it and good thoughts there. fee revenue, consumer loans in particular that does give us food to think about. thank you, sir managing director at wells fargo securities covering the banking sector. still ahead from the dollar stores to high-end furniture, a look at today's bullish calls on retail not everyone is positive about the economic recovery. larry lindsey joins us with what's got him worried about the american psyche right now. heading to break, take a look at the stay-at-home stocks. these have been the winners of a

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welcome back to "the exchange." states reopen across the country, wall street is bullish on the retail sector first up, williams-sonoma upgraded with a new target of $80 saying consumers are shifting discretionary spending to where they spend the time, at the home and higher end consumer they say likely will have sustained income shares up over 6%. best buy, upgraded to outperform with a $90 price tar get on it they're saying the work from home trend is here to stay and spurring electronic purchases. shares of best buy up more than 10% today. and finally dollar general and dollar tree, goldman with

coverage of both with buy ratings saying that they're well positioned for the current economic uncertainty and adding as we have heard many times that they're recession proof saying growth and cash strapped consumers are positive for the names. dollar general is higher today and an outperformer and dollar tree is up more than 4%. there you have it. a downgrade on square. so those shares are lower today and digital payments broadly attracting a new set of users. we will have the numbers for you next. sales of michael your dan memorabilia gets a boost we'll be right back. (♪)

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welcome back silver tech not coming to the rescue for square today anyway. the company down 3% on gown grades with a double downgrade at bank of america on valuation concerns amid uncertainty for smaller businesses this is at a time of digital offerings generally getting a boost by a surprising segment of the population kate >> hey, kelly. so paypal has seen a jump in older americans trying out digital payments while they shelter in place march to april people over 50 were the fastest growing age group and spent more

cfo rainey explaining that trend at the tech conference last week >> added to the back half of march and then into april we started to seeing some newer transfers, emerging where not only were we seeing like the -- site change with the users and ended up being more towards silver and older demographic >> a few reasons for silver tech as he says going digital, cash is perceived as a germ spreader and people stuck at home forcing the transactions to happen online this could be especially valuable for venmo with 52 million users and it's not profitable yet for the parent company. according to a recent aarp study 9% of adult respondents use

venmo. paypal telling me they don't have plans to change the marketing strategy yet to go after silver tech but the cfo saying he thinks the trends are sustainable. kelly? >> i'm not saying anything i'll get myself in trouble i struggle with venmo. thank you. kate rooney informing us of silver tech. the kids are still snapping up sneakers, especially those jordans, demand for the merchandise seen an incredible surge thanks to the documentary about his career called "the last dance." eric chemi has the numbers for us. >> if he were a stock, analysts might have a buy rating on the former icon. after the documentary "the last dance," sales of nearly every product proeshted with the six-time nba champion are soaring to new heights in an online auction at sotheby's yesterday, a pair of autographed air jordan 1s sold for a record $560,000. setting the new world record for any auctioned pair of sneakers

companies like stock x are seeing a pop it set an unsigned version of air jordan 1s selling at $7,000 on the site. moreaired. it's not just sneakers, but also collectibles and memorabilia ken golden from golden auctions says a jordan rookie card previously sold around $30,000 now the price is about a hundred grand. merch is up over 900% since the show premiered ebay said average price has spiked a staggering 5,000 percent. experts say while prices across are permanently elevated, that may be some cooling off. for fans and collectors that didn't get on the action, there might be time. >> give it five or ten years, a whole other wave

eric, thanks very much former national economic counsel will join us with his four dangerous myths about the coronavirus impact on the economy and what he says the road to recovery does look like. the president meeting with restaurant executives this afternoon to discuss a path forward for the industry he joins closing bell for a first interviewstraight from that event he's not the only one. restaurant brands ceo will join us tim.asrns at 3:00 p. ete me stay with us this is decision tech.

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that my next guest said could interfere with the economy here to talk about the shape of recovery and what government efforts should look like is lawrence lindsey it's great to have you with me >> thank you >> the reason you're talk about some of these myths is to say to everybody we can't wait for perfect to start to reopen and that's fine. what do we do about a host of the issues i know they are working on a potential liability shield in congress getting business convinced that it's safe for them to reopen and not going to regret doing so, that will be a difficult task. >> i think it's up to the businessman to decide if it's safe to open it's not up to us. >> that being the case, what do you think is kind of the way to go about reopening so it's safe, so it's phased

so people aren't going to have to worry about kind of the overhang of either legal issues or the health threat for their employees. anybody who has an elevator is trying to figure out what to do now. >> it's hard i talked to some people about that there's the elevator issue exactly what to do in the stores you know, the best way to determine that is the person right on the spot. i think we're making a mistake with one size fits all solutions. we should let individual businesses make the decisions. governments can set down basic guidelines but that's about all they can do. >> what do you think is the shape of the recovery as you can best guess it.

>> i think we're going to have a gradual recovery not in terms of changing quarter to quarter which we have a steep decline. it's going to come back a little quicker. relative to the size of the decline, i think it will take a while. i don't see it gets back to fourth quarter levels of gdp until the middle of next year. >> if it's the middle of next year, that would still be better than forecast and warnings which on a slightly different piece on this but on the unemployment rate say it could be five years, a decade before we're back at pre-covid unemployment levels. do you think that would prove true and what can we do to try to make sure the unemployment rate falls as quickly as it rose >> i think the unemployment rate

will drop. this year and something less than that next year. i think may will be the worst month. >> it's going to take a while to get back to full strength. let me run through your myths about the coronavirus and reopening. myth number one is if you say we stay lock down the virus went go away every one can be made financially whole from the lockdown you said they can't. number four, the economic downside of staying shutdown isn't so bad these are some pretty, as you say, pretty major problems if

people are waiting for all of these things to come true as they prepare to reopen >> yes the first one is you have this ima image if we're lucky, you nmorp into something less bad. you might be able to resolve treatment. you might be able to create a vaccine. in this case it's out there. we have yet to have the vaccine against the coronavirus.

the virus sticks around. the virus is not going away. >> i apologize the connection is not as clear as we woulz had have liked >> i'm sorry >> we'll clear it up we'll have you come back we'll run through it and the rest of the issues of the day. we appreciate your time today. thank you. >> thank you thanks for tuning in to the exchange, everybody. we're going to start "power lunch. right now. ty thank you very much. i haven't been called mister in a long time. i'm grateful for honor we'll see you in a minute. i'm tyler mathison big monday rally we're enjoying it in the

kitchen. stocks at session highs up about 900 points on the dow. optimism about the reopening of the economy, obviously feeding that rally comments from fed chair jerome powell last night on a rare interview on "60 minutes" giving investors more confidence. then there's the merderna news another boost for the bulls a and that stock is up 25% oil higher too who can forget the expiration a month ago. crude back above $32 a barrel. remember when it was trading at -- you had to pay them to take it away we're halfway through the second quarter with today's big rally. the s&p is down