possibility of some bad news that may occur over the next handful of months, and you know, i would also make the comment that with respect to the new york metropolitan area, where clearly people are getting cabin fever and want to get out, the numbers may deteriorate there as people begin to legally or illegally get out, not social distance properly, and the question then is how the government reacts to that. >> david, thank you very much for your time. it's great cito see you that does it for us today. right now, time for "squawk on the street." >> good thursday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl couldnquintanilla withm cramer and david faber another 2.4 million americans file for unemployment. down slightly from last week but totaling 38.6 million since

mid-march. we'll get to macy's and more and oil above 34 as the reopening drives demand. jim, you just said to joe the reopening is working and even companies like ford that might have to send a few workers home on a given day are finding ways to adapt >> look, things are a little better his is the depression taking off the table. a lot of people seem surprised when you get an expedia number where they say there's a little more travel, and best buy is able to do a good job doing curbside pickup. people turned out to be more inventive. we heard that from brian cornell yesterday, and he'll be on the show today facebook being inventive a lot of people have figured out a new way to do business in a pandemic and i think it's vising because we didn't think it could occur i'm not predicting some sort of gdp revival, but i think that ingenuity is playing a big role in this particular moment when it comes to the pandemic

>> i do want to get quick to some home building because there's some numbers out that 41% of the homes sold in the last four weeks actually saw a bidding war. that's all - >> wow >> post-covid activity, and elson did talk to you about home building last night. let's listen >> the housing market is very healthy. you don't have a bubble. there's no excessive home price appreciation there's actually a shortage of homes, and there's probably the largest percent of aging homes in the market that we have seen in the last 40 years that's good for home improvement. good for housing but the other thing that's really important for us is customers want to spend money where they have choices and where they have options. >> explains their comp this week >> look, it is -- there are so many different forms of this recession that took us by surprise

one of them was we figured, housing is going to roll over and housing, it's the opposite whether it be from home depot or whether it be from lowe's, it's pretty clear not only is there no housing recession, but there's a sift in some places out of the city into the suburbs because of a belief the city is a more dangerous place health wise, but this is very robust. just like we're going to end the health care recession when we're starting to open up these ancillary health units that had been closed because everything was concentrated on covid. so there are areas in the economy that are coming back fast because they were never that bad housing. autos, not clear and then we just have small business and david, i know this is a crusade for me at this point, small business, because we're in new york we have no idea whether the ppp is going to last between de blasio and cuomo figuring things out. new york is proving to be the epicenter of nothingness and i listen to andrew talk

about how maybe if we were doing this show, i don't know, let's pick a show, milwaukee, maybe we're thinking what the heck is going on in new york because the answer is a whole lot of nothing. >> listen, new york has been the hardest hit, as you know the city itself, over 20,000 deaths is that right? we can't forget that, jim. and there is a -- we have to hit all seven of the metrics to allow for the reopening. i think new york is at four of those seven, although quite close in terms of hospitalizations, or hospital beds available and icu beds available very close percentage wise it may not be as far away as you think, but it was certainly behind much of the country it is still a major economic center for the overall country and listen, california also still not really fully open at this point, although far closer to that. and they don't have anywhere near the number of cases that new york state and new york city

did. >> no, they're one fifth of the country. carl, there were pretty good numbers out of starbucks now, released about 34 minutes ago, that are head of expectations. the expectations were raised at the previous -- i have to be careful on the wording here. they had an aggressive series of targets they raised when they reported i think a lot of people felt maybe those couldn't be reached but they are being reached i think this is, again, a sign that people are -- there's activity there's a pulse where there was no pulse and i think a lot of people betting against the market were saying that hell was going to be unleashed. what was ackman's phrase >> i think it was the end of america as we know it. >> right special netflix series he's got, eight-part series. i do think you have to be encouraged by what's going on because people are going out, and they're shopping, and they want to shop they like shopping at the curbside, by the way they love contactless. they love it i mean, that's what we saw from

target they love pulling up and having someone put their stuff in their trunk. and they like that for dinners they like it for when chipotle comes to your house, but the one thing they don't have are small businesses that are opening their doors, gyms, haircuts, whatever, those are slow to open that's the real world. you know, the real world is not the big box store, you know? >> exactly, jim. seems like we come back to this theme right away every morning the headlines about starbucks here, over the last week, regaining 60%, 65% of prior year comps in the u.s but small business is a story that remains out there, and you talked with sheryl sandberg of facebook about it just last night. take a listen. >> this is not just a health crisis this is an economic crisis, and it's a crisis for small business small businesses create two thirds of the jobs in this country, and i know that's why you're so focused on them and that's why everyone should be. we put out a report this week

that state of small business report, which says that 31% of small businesses have stopped operating entirely, and another 11% believe if things don't change, they will go under as well and this is the worst number half of small business owners don't believe they're going to be able to rehire the people that they had to let go. >> astonishing >> everybody should look at tha reports. we know it's important to you in particular because you're a small business owner yourself. >> i think i have been following this, this facebook really an amazing shift to representing the interests of the millions of people who actually read facebook, but a couple million businesses that facebook can really help. obviously, yes, facebook, it's reciprocal altruism. if they start doing more business, maybe they'll do ads nothing is done out of the good

of anyone's heart, but when you look at what shopify is doing with facebook, they say look, we know you're being squeezed, small business, your rent isn't coming down, here's an outlet for you to make money. here's an outlet that's going to keep you alive i think it is like that. i don't think people realize, when these companies were deemed nonessential, it was almost as if they were deemed the right to be able to fend for themselves, but good luck. it wasn't a death warrant, but i look at when you're deemed nonessential and the big store next to you is deemed essential, you're done. you're done. you're not going to be able to compete. >> you have made the point as well, jim, and we have discussed it, of course, with the s&p, as we just saw at its highest level since march 6th, down 8% for the year, began trading at 2971, that there's a divergence between the real economy, made

up of so many small businesses that may not be able to make it or hire back as many people as they had previously, and the stock market, which doesn't seem reflective of the challenges faced by those businesses, but eventually, given we have a consumer-led economy, one would have to believe if you don't get employment again as the levels it was near before the kries began, that will have an impact on theoverall economy and on those companies that we do follow so closely that make up so much of the s&p >> it should i mean, let's take -- what happens if colleges don't return to the way that they were? and your whole business is involving a college town, and you're mcdonald's and wendy's frankly, at a certain point, they have those same-store sales have to go down. their business -- those franchisees can't do as well real franchisees in a c conglomeration of a company like mcdonald's, they will get hurt

they have balance sheets, therefore, money managers wants to buy the stocks. they're looking through whatever is happening to another moment in time that's going to be better and i don't want to look through it yet, but you know there's whole parts of this country and maybe fund managers parts of this country saying in another seven months, everything is going to be so much better i have no choice we believe small businesses will come back, these businesses will do fine. i think they could do fine, but small business coming back, i don't know how it happens. so many of them got wiped out. done unless sheryl sandberg's survey is wrong they have great contacts >> they do, and they rely on those as well does google to a certain extent for their advertising. they should have a sense for it. >> yes look, it's somehow, we feel optimism because stock prices are up versus 1929 when the stock prices directly

represented america. these companies, when you see the stocks that are up, you looked at the semi-conductors yesterday. they're chinese. those are companies that are relying on the comeback in china, which in some places is aggressive why are numbers coming back? because the chinese are snacking more than ever you can see the tension between president xi and president trump because the chinese numbers are extraordinary. now, i know there are some people who do satellite projections that show that the chinese aren't going out as much at night, but these companies that we see that are in the most green right now, that is china coming back, not the united states coming back china is - >> is that what our future is going to be, talking about china every morning and all the signals we're getting out of china to try to determine what the s&p is going to do >> kinda, yeah i mean, look, we're shutting down their stocks. got to rely on something >> well. >> they make a lot of things,

man. >> we haven't done it yet. we haven't done it yet, but you saw this reuters story that baidu is considering i can't speak to it other than the headline itself that says baidu considering -- >> a good quarter. >> delisting from the nasdaq >> david, it's too early to get long lucken. >> i think that was delisted or is about to be >> that was a good one, right? thank you for that one, too, mr. president xi >> guys, got a lot to get to we haven't really touched on the retail numbers a bunch of upgrades. initiation of boeing with a buy over at rbc. comments at the cdc about brazil and whether or not that portends a spike for us when we finally do get to winter a lot more to come when "squawk on the street" comes back. at mercedes-benz, nothing less than world-class service will do. that's why we're expanding your range of choices. many dealers now offer optional pick-up & delivery and at-home maintenance, as well as online shopping

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powered by the nation's largest gig-speed network. to help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. and a team of experts - here for you 24/7. we've always believed in the power of working together. that's why, when every connection counts... you can count on us. welcome back safety is in focus as companies around the world race to develop new vaccines meg tirrell joins us with a look at where risks in this all can come into play good morning, meg. >> good morning, david vaccines, of course, are a special candidate of medicines because you're giving them to healthy people so the bar for safety has to be extremely high especially when you're talking about a pandemic when hundreds of millions of people or maybe billions will be getting these vaccines the main safety event that experts are on the lookout for is what they tell me right now a

theoretical risk, not one they have observed with the vaccines in the early data so far what's known as immune enhancement. the idea a vaccine could make the infection worse. it's something we have seen before with the dengue virus if people have been infected with one strain, if they encounter the next, the antibodies to the previous strain can make the infection worse. we have also seen immune enhancement with vaccines for rsv in the 1960, and it delayed the development of vaccines for 30 years what kind of trials are needed to prove safety and make people feel comfortable taking these vaccines ebola is a recent example of a vaccine that did this in an outbreak scenario. not a perfect comparison obviously, very different diseases this would be given for an outbreak versus covid being a pandemic, but look at the ring vaccination, the efficacy trial they did in about 3500 people in an active outbreak situation if you look at how many people they tested for safety, 15,000

the numbers we're hearing for covid are even higher. astra zen caw saying they're planning a phase three in at least 30,000 people. we talked to scott gottlieb, and he gave comments on what he's looking for in the large-scale trials here's what he said. >> there's going to be a lot of pressure to try to license these vaccines earlier, make them available during an emergency use authorization, showing data produces antibodies in people. i think we need to do big clinical trials. we have to go through a proper development pathway to give people confidence in taking these vaccines when you look at vaccine trials, typically, they're tens of thousands of patients. >> a massive challenge here. insuring safety in such a short period of time will require very large studies. back to you. >> yeah, that's an important point. one that's been made to me as well by a number of people who know their way around these things, meg, just the size typically of the trials. but something else, of course, is manufacturing

if and when we do get there. i know astra zenica has an announcement saying they're at least in a position to make, what, a billion doses i think it is through 2020 into 2021. >> that is what they're saying with this billion dollar grant from barda and they're already starting to guarantee those doses to different governments. they initially put out a plan to guarantee the uk government 30 million doses by september and now with this announcement today, with the barda support, they're guaranteeing 300 million doses to the u.s. government by october. and david, they're doing this with only having seen data from monkeys so far i mean, they expect to see the human data very soon but the pace at which these things are going is amazing. >> meg, first, you have been unbelievable and the reporting is great, and getting the chairman of moderna yesterday, it was breathtaking because you

finally got some perspective for what people was kind of like pandemonium out there, but this doctor, the head of research for virology at beth israel, i think they're approaching it the most methodically they're injektding, yes, primates, finding out what can work and what can't work, but they're also simultaneously building the capacity to have literally billions and billions of vaccines. it's almost as if j & j is approaching this the way militarily, it's a war, and we're going to do it right and going to do it with the best things we have, and we're going to do it big everyone else seems to me, well, we're going to get it done do you think i'm only thinking j & j has more of an all hands on deck approach >> i don't think you're wrong that j & j's approach does appear different for one thing, the timelines j & j is talking about are starkly different. they're not saying they're going to be in human trials until

september, whereas this morning the astrazenica ceo told us he expects to have results of the phase three by september i'm thrilled to talk about this with the head of j & j's research operation about how they're approaching this >> total heavyweight >> yeah, and they're also going about this differently in terms of manufacturing, striking these partnerships with emergent biosolutions, for example, which is one of the barda sites for manufacturing, and they're going to do more of these partnerships an interesting approach to hear from them. >> doing great stuff >> hey, meg. interesting poll out of reuters ipsos today, in which they find nearly a quarter of americans say they have no -- little or no interest in taking a covid-19 vaccine. do you expect pharma to try to convince people to get inoculated or let the people go since we know we're going to be supply challenged anyway >> well, if 75% of the

population took the vaccine, that actually exceeds the rate we would need for herd immunity, according to the estimates i have heard people talk about 60% to 70% but that would be very high. if you look at the flu vaccination rates, they are not that high. but i have also talked with pharma about the antivaccination movement, and their messagin around it, and for the most part in the past, they haven't really believed they're the best messengers on that, so it will be a public health message, but obviously, a very challenging one. >> yeah, fascinating we look forward to seeing you at 11:00 as well. doing great work take a district break here as futures continue to get closer to the flat line, all 11 sectors, by the way, back above ckn miteg ere.ovinavag ba ia nu

2500 now, premarket, as the journal is now saying the company this week decided it will hold its annual prime day event in september that's according to people familiar the two-day event is normally heldn ijuly we'll watch that back in just a moment.

let's get a mad dash with jim as we work our way through

some of these retail numbers, like best buy's. >> yes, despite a herculean effort i thought was amazing where they did almost as much business, 81% of the business, by curbside as they pointed out during the last six weeks of the quarter, even though not a single customer set foot in our stores, they still did a good number but it wasn't good enough. carl, people are concerned the stock is down. they do these things they get to sales, but are they making as much money this is something i'm going to bring up with brian cornell about target terrific, these numbers are up 100%, 200%, but you're not making as much money as if people went inside the store that's what's hobbling best buy. i think they're creative and they did a good job, but that doesn't mean your stock goes up. >> it brings to mind what's macy's said. a billion dollar loss, preliminary, versus a $200 million profit a year ago. department stores are a different model, jim, but they

even said, demand was moderately higher than they thought it was going to be. >> and they're still going to close some more stores i think the issue with macy's, is the big flagship store, you have to have tourism, a weaker dollar there are things that have continually worked against them. also, you need parking to be able to pull up. that's an issue with target. people were saying, hey, you don't have enough parking to do your pull-up strategy. obviously, macy's pull-up is very difficult very difficult to do >> guys, we mentioned the amazon prime day delay a moment ago, that the journal is reporting, but the journal is saying it's due to strains on the warehouses, due to all the surging demand jim, that has shifted from some of these traditional retailers to online. >> i have to tell you, they're doing -- every looks at what walmart has done and we have seen best buy and target and we have seen lowe's, seen home depot, and the answer is the winner is amazon because they're able to make more money doing this because

that's what they know how to do. their fulfillment is excellent, their advertising is terrific. they have had more business than they could handle now ever since the first week of march. they're just remarkable. and remember, they're spending $4 billion to try to keep their workers healthy. you'll see floriord has a couple lines go down because of covid i know there's issues about certain lines where we know there's covid, but it's pretty seamless they have done a great job and i think that you have to marvel, they have been doing this for a long time they have the edge on everybody with the possible exception of walmart when it comes to low-cost delivery. david is not there yet >> i'm here. >> i thought he was listening to you. i'm back i'm back i was making a couple calls, trying to check in on a couple things >> booking a haircut there

>> going to get a haircut next week i may even come see you, actually, in new jersey there. >> i'll give you a virtual high five david, we're just talking about something you know better than anyone, who is that amazon's low-cost model can get stuff to your house better than anybody after all the things we saw this weekend decemb-- >> guys, speaking of virtual, we're going to get the first significant virtual ipo. select quote, the online insurance broker we'll talk to the ceo when the company begins trading later this morning at the nasdaq, in support of red nose day, raising money to combat child poverty floor is going to partially reopen tuesday, of course, jim, but it's nice to see at least a somewhat high-profile new offer. >> it does feel like -- look, some people are saying do yo think business is really normal? it's so not normal, but it's not just a pretend normal.

there is business being done it's just done at a level that would shock us three months ago. select quote is a company, it's coming public. not just -- it's a business. let's see how it does. look, when things were good, the last things we were getting through was chinese ipos and smile direct and casper the friendly ghost remember casper? >> we know one of the biggest ipos that people were potentially looking forward to, maybe not until early next year, airbnb, of course, and they watched their business go from here to here i have the numbers written down here somewhere, but we know they're very bad, of course, and they were able to raise some money. airbnb, but the valuation is dramatically lower there are a number of those big names, airbnb is certainly one of the key ones, guys, we expected we would see come public that have been hobbled oza result of the crisis >> you're so right, david.

layoffs, layoffs layoffs at air pbn the layoffs at uber were shocking to me because there were divisions that i thought would be the way to be more than just a taxi company, and that's what they're making smaller. which is not a good sign and there's not many people who want to own the stock. >> i know. i brought this up to you a couple days ago after we having read that letter from the company's ceo discussing the additional 3,000 layoffs they would undertake, and it painted a fairly dire picture. >> yes, it did >> granted, it was giving a reason as to why they needed to do this, but it did not read like a letter that would result in the stock going up so dramatically i understand investors are applauding some efficiencies that are taking place or being forced on them, jim, but at the same time, you have to wonder longer term, not even long term, right now about their business >> you take away the ecosystem,

the multiple that's really what's happening look, we're going to do fray, we have this whole way to be able to monetize the gig economy, it's going to be terrific. look at us, we're fabulous, and now it's like, okay, we're a cab company, and we're not bad and no, i don't want to pay up for that that's not what i wanted you told me it was going to be something else and now you're making it this thing. that was not a reason to buy the stock. just because -- and then, look, maybe if they bought grubhub, but there was obviously some sort of wrangling over price somebody should have agreed to do something there, but no >> well, you know what, i can give you a little update on that >> you have something? >> on grubhub. a little bit very incremental, but you're right in asking that question. remember, because we have been waiting. these things typically either go awry or get done, and we have been waiting here. they are still talking, from what i understand, and they're fairly close

grubhub and uber, it would seem, but that doesn't mean you're going to get to a deal i believe uber is at a price of 1.9% of its shares for each share of grubhub i believe grubhub has come down in its ask, so it sounds like the two sides, at least according to people familiar with the situation, are getting quite close. however, the ceo, who i just mentioned, is pretty tough on these things and it doesn't mean that they're going to get there, to get the deal done. bultd they ha but they have narrowed, it would appear, having spoken to people with what's going on on both sides, they have narrowed the gap in terms of price. it would be a fairly significant premium on the stock price an all stock deal. >> i think matt maloney, the ceo of grubhub, is determined to make it so the average price that -- the price he sells it at, is above the average price a lot of people bought he's very passionate

pro-shareholder, and he doesn't want to sell the company below all the people who bought it at 70, 80, 90, and people who got very excited about it. i respect him. by the way, this is not like matt with 50,000 different people advising him. it's matt. >> right right. understood but let's not forget, as it would be in all-stock deal, there's the opportunity for grubhub shareholders to participate in an upside that would be created here. we're talking about not just cost synergys but potentially revenue synergies. there's a question of antitrust. they have given their critics pleb plenty of time to amass potential opposition to the deal it would bring together two of the largest players in delivery, and there will certainly be some questions in terms of antitrust. they're not there yet. >> that's great. no one said a thing about that,

and you're right on top of that. but that is the most high profile m&a right now, because you're taking out. take out and delivery all over the country, and this is the ability to have a competitor to doordash that i think you can pit against each other as a restauranteur, but just a couple delivery companies, it's going to be like at&t, verizon and sprint, t-mobile all getting together and your bill is going to go up doordash has done a very nice thing and cut prices they literally cut their fee in half to keep it so small business is staying alive. that's a very big deal >> grubhub has not done that >> no, and we're watching both stocks respond a bit positively. are they 1.9 and 1.95 in terms of bid ask that would seem to imply the possibility they have to figure out a way to get that done, but

i have seen deals fall apart with even lesser spreads you just don't know. >> it's like on tuesday morning when i come in is this minute to minute this could happen this weekend >> one way or the other, you know, you can't let these things linger too long. my guess is that they will either get to a deal or abandon soon this has been over a week now it's been in the public realm. you have to -- you can't let it go too long. guys, we were talking about ipos carl mentioned, of course, the first virtual one taking place one beneficiary of this period has been tiktok, talking about chinese ipos tiktok, i mean, has taken off yet again. it's been straight up. i had pride in this thing because when i mentioned it to you a couple years ago, you hadn't heard of it at the time probably the only time i had mentioned a company's name to you that you didn't actually know

it's now close to $125 billion value. they're in the market raising either debt or equity, unclear, but raising it around a level of $125 billion the byte dance, the parent company, which may be based here and has hired kevin mayer as its new ceo. >> fastest growing large company on earth, tiktok the owner, and by the way, david, the list of american owners of that is going to shock people it's not as chinese as people think. heavy duty american ownership there in the actual structure. >> i know they were talking about making their headquarters new york before the virus, at least in talking to some potential candidates for the job who i had spoken to. kevin mayer ends up with the job, the man who ran streaming at disney. but they had been talking about making sure they had a headquarters here in the united states in anticipation of some sort of a listing down the road, which would be enormous given the size and success that

business has had >> people want a piece of that i mean, that company is -- after you pants me on it and i didn't know it, i have subsequently discovered this is the hoyly grail. this is the one that's just getting all of the aplomb, and the growth, the numbers i'm hearing about growth are so staggering, i don't know another company that comes near their growth not one. it's just on fire. >> i can tell you, every teenage girl in quarantine is on tiktok. that is my own anecdotal evidence >> okay. >> from here >> no reason to disagree with you. having revealed again i did not know it, that was very important. important to the story you mentioned i didn't know it >> well, it was nice it was a nice moment for me, and even though it was years ago, i still remember it. yeah carl >> well, mayer is going to have an interesting baptism by fire

hard not to notice josh hawley's tweet upon his naming, saying i look forward to hearing from him under oath so tiktok is going to have an interesting few months here. we have to touch on boeing because rbc does initiate with a bye. they talk about in their words many years of double-digit growth in passenger traffic. obviously coming off an extremely low base $164 target. even as the tsa, jim, today rolled out new guidelines for how their agents are going to inspect your bag, look at your driver's license, pat you down, while touching everything as little as possible going to be a delicate balance >> we have to stop with this taking temperature obviously, the big problem is three days you don't have a temperature. they should use the blood oximeter i truly like boeing ever since they got that bond deal. if you go back in time, ray

dalio and bill -- you know, mr. apocklipse, they thought they couldn't raise the money. that's when we should have said you have to buy the stock. a flight does always come back it really does and i do think that, i know this is mr. president hold your ears, that china flight, china travel, if you allow them to come, it will be big. because they're back, and they're traveling. i know we're not, they are. we're at home. they're abroad they go out. we stay at home. >> that deal will go down as being historic >> amazing >> may is the third largest month ever for issuance. and it's incredible what's happened in terms of corporate issuance we'll watch boeing that's leading the dow, speaking of which, let's get to bob pisani and see what's moving hey, bob >> happy thursday, everybody we started negative and went

into positive territory. there's real momentum behind the market i want to show you the sectors we had decent reports on the retailers today. tjx, they missed on their earnings but sales were well above expectations comps were positive in the reopen stores. that stock is trading up about 7% energy is doing well again tech sup, industrials, banks have even moved into positive territory. this broadening out of the market that i keep talking about is happening again today you look at the s&p 500, we're approaching 3,000. believe it or not, that's about the 200-day moving average we haven't been above the 200-day moving average since early march. we're getting close on that. breadth has been improving, volatility has been declining. credit is expanding. oceans of liquidity. is it too overpriced or undervalued. that's a legitimate question, but remember what's moving the market it's not crazy why the market is advancing. we're reopening, all 50 states

right now. we saw the fed's backstop is very real. even though there's some fiscal gridlock in washington but powell is very active. treatment for vaccine hopes are there. and new cases are declining. and there's a legitimate question about the valuation, whether we're overvalues or undervalued. elsewhere, you heard david talking about baidu considering delisting. this is a report on reuters. it's not having a dramatic effect on the stock. it opened down, now trading on the upside but there's a lot offi issues wt china and the u.s. this is being drug into the whole thing. we have senate legislation that might ban many chinese companies from listing on u.s. exchanges or raising any money we had other things here we had nasdaq considering tightening -- they're tightsening their listing requirements for listing ipos. s.e.c. has repeatedly said they're frustrated over the

ability to check the papers of chinese companies. there's a whole stew of issues affecting all of this. very complicated alibaba, by the way, reporting tomorrow finally, we have an ipo at the new york stock exchange. it's virtual ipo, it will be manually opened. but it's a well known name select quote, everybody knows this company they do a lot of advertising insurance policy comparison website, and they upsize the whole thing. the price stock was $17 to $19 and they are doing $20 by any stretch of the imagination, this looks like a successful opening for an ipo. positive territory guys, back to you. >> all right thanks, bob. >> let's get to rick santelli as well, who brought us those -- another tough print on jobless claims hey, rick. >> hi, carl. indeed, while we're waiting for the market services and manufacturing pmis, we can look

at a intra day of tens the data this morning wasn't shocking, and it wasn't hugely surprising, but it was still not very good when we look at initial claims 2.438 million continuing claims, over 25 million. you can see an intraday chartd of tens, the way the market was a slow burn, you saw it after the market was released, granted, the move wasn't big, but if you open up to march, none of the moves have been big. the long end is consolidating. it's really tight. now, we have market coming out, the pmis these are may preliminaries. if you look at the manufacturing component, it's 39.8, and that's versus 36.1, which was the all-time low, and if we go to services, 36.9, and that's versus 26.7, which was an all-time low and finally, the composite at 36.4 so this series has only been around since 2017, but you get an idea. like much of the data, it's not

good, but it has improved from some of the worst case levels we experienced in march and april now, let's get back to the charts we know that the fed is into the corporate space now, high yield is one of the issues that have made some nervous. let's look at two etfs hyg, the high yield lqd, that's investment grade since march 1st. put them both on the same chart and they clearly have improved even with very little heavy lifting by the fed, and when we look at the security size versus the etf side and look at barclay's investment grade and high yield on the same chart as well, they have really become much more well behaved from well over 1,000 on high yield to about 720 basis points over. on investment grade, you can see it's now under 200 over, so these are good improvements that represent real progress. we had johnny fien from goldman saying there was a lot of activity in that investment grade space of historic proportions with regard to how many companies are tapping and how investors seem pleased to

get involved, and finally, let's look at the euro versus the dollar this is a chart going all the way back to april 1st. you can see we're really bouncing around 110, a 200-day moving average back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you for that we'll watch the impact of that data take a quick break here. boeing is leading the dow, now up almost 6.5% really only a three-week high here, but the first crack above the 50-day since february 21

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president travels to mish misthis afternoon to visit a ford auto plant. the plant does have a policy of wearing a mask in an open letter, the attorney general of him to, quote, respe the great efforts of the men and women at ford and across the state by wearing a facial covering the ag says the president has a, quote, legal responsibility under state law to wear a mask jim, the mask might be interesting to some. more interesting is from a productivity standpoint, how the plants are faring and what kind of additional costs they may face as they try to keep workers separate >> i was thinking, i mean, this is -- you talk about how best buy is a problem the people not going into the store. i mean, here's a problem can you go on the assembly line. this was like what happened obviously with tyson i don't know

this may not be a smooth meeting. this could be a tense meeting. i don't think he wants to wear a mask ford is not doing that well. the ventilators, i don't know the president was never that happy with what went on with gm. i don't know this could be some fireworks it's worth watching. >> there's a lot to unpack >> yeah. when pence went to mayo clinic, probably where people needed to wear a mask and didn't wear a mask, he said he should have worn one here we are with this issue that i think the president is pushing everywhere which is that reopen, i think he does not respect necessarily what a mask can do for the other person, which is why you should wear the kind of mask we wear, to not get somebody else sick he has been a role model for people who think that masks are for sissies. i put it out there >> we should also keep in mind the idea of what exactly the cost is going to be of

maintaining social distancing in these kinds of plants. >> right >> and whether you can continue to have the same rate of efficiency that you had previously when people are further apart, when they're not able to work in the same fashion, when you have to provide them all ppe and go through these things and not to mention the fact they had to shut a couple down because they had the cases. >> it's not a lamborghini where you get your station 20 feet away and the guys are wearing leather aprons i dropped a tic tac and tempted to eat it off the floor. it's not that clean. it's not lamborghini where they make 4 1/2 a day >> right and unlike so many jobs like our own, guys, can't do it from home dow is up 40 points. we're back after a short break at mercedes-benz, nothing less than world-class

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get the connectivity your business needs. call today. comcast business. couple months ago jim came up with the cramer covid-19 index. you can see how it's done over two months more than 41%. for any story related to that index and all the stocks in it you can always go to cnbc.com.

let's get to jim and stop trading. >> when you're trying to dump inventory, you go to tjx they buy it for nothing and mark

it up a little and make a lot of money. this morning they put out the numbers. places were closed they're reopening and where. they have now told us they have seen very strong sales in those three words. that sends any stock higher. tjx has been a tough thing to own lately until now i think it's a big boy given the fact that the retailers in trouble are going to look to them for cash. >> interesting the chart, you look at it and it's clearly not a v, but it might be the half of a u it reflects settling in at lower levels than before >> yes, it does, and i think there's a lot of stores closed they suspended dividend. the one thing i like about tjx, literally, is this is the pick of the litter moment i mean, target even had terrible apparel numbers in the first few months i mean, and they had to get rid of that nventory

and that's good inventory. tjx can take the nonbranded or whatever every one of the stores hear there was so much apparel in the month of march they can take what they want people go there and don't care it was marked apparel of a fancy store. they have the right merchandise which is going to take the stock higher >> yeah. interesting. so how about tonight >> well, we have to talk to brian cornell. third quarter was great. a lot of nay sayers thinking he doesn't have the gross margins there was the stress about promotion promotional. he said this may not continue for forever. and then this may be the palo alto breakout quarter. i know he's gunning for crowd strike and maybe he can pull it off. he's a smart guy >> one of the big prints of the

week we'll see you tonight. mad money, 6:00 p.m. eastern time >> bye, carl good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and sara eisen markets hanging in dow up almost 70 points. data enturjing from the ism, and how lei. let's get to rick. >> leading economic indicators, and this is an april number, lei. don't see it -- i like to remind everybody this number is 61 years old. started in 59. minus 6.7 last month it was the worst ever and now it's down 4 .4 % down 4 .4 following the historic down 6 .7. like many data points it seems as though april may not be good, but in many cases it's improvement over the low rates of most data points in march existing home sales getting released for april and for that we'll aim east to diana.

>> home sales in april dropped 17 .8 % to 4.33 million units. believe it or not, that's better than expectations. the street was looking for 4.42. it is still the largest drop since july of 2010 you'll remember back then was when the home buyer tax credit from the sub prime mortgage crisis expired sales were down 17.2% annually the big number here was inventory. the supply of homes for sale at the end of april, 1.47 million that is the lowest ever. it is a drop of 19 .7%, and represents a 4.1 month supply of homes for sale not only did people not list their homes in april, but people who were listed pulled their homes from the market. that created competition and priced jumped.

$286,000 is the median price of a home sold in april that's up 7.4% year over year. sales fell across the nation, but most sharply in the west down 25% compared to the midwest which was down just 12% month to month. while single family home sales dropped 16.9.condos dropped a wider 24.4%. it could be people didn't want to have shared common space and elevators or it could be a long-term trend of people wanting to buy away from the city and into the suburbs and we've been talking about that a lot. one positive note, he did say realtors are reporting a lot better foot traffic in may as governors reopen states and people are getting out to open houses again and we've seen that in the mortgage purchase applications almost flat compared to a year ago last week back to you, carl. >> wow incredible numbers

thank you so much. let's bring in roger altman to talk about what the market has been trying to tell us the past few weeks and the data as well roger, it's always good to check in with you. good morning >> good morning. how are you guys doing >> we're pretty good here. hanging in the data has gone from the horrific when you look at claims to the mildly encouraging, at least month on month with numbers today. we know what equity investors are banking on sort of collides with what the minutes told us out of the fed yesterday what are you seeing in the reopening that seems sustainable? >> well, first of all, it's a good thing i'm at an investment strategist or money manager, because i would have gone bankrupt a long time ago i'm very puzzled by the equity market valuations. i mean, we all snow the s&p 500 is only off 8% year to date.

and i think there are three possible explanations for this one is that investors are looking ahead to a strong 2021, and perhaps for a vaccine sooner rather than later that can be produced in big volume i find that dubious. if you look at the mainstream economic forecast over the past 48 hours, like cbo, it is forecast in a very weak 2021, and that growth at the end of '21 would be only 1.6% that it would take three years to recover the lost output as a result of this economic retraction and that s&p 500 earnings would not return to 2019 levels in 2021. so that -- you look at that and say to yourself, if investors are looking for a strong 2021,

where is that going to come from second possible explanation is just the amount of monetary expansion between the fed and the ucb. their balance sheets are approaching a $10 trillion expansion and growing 15%. 2% is considered normal. this is a version of the drugger miller argument the other way. it's also what happened in 2008 and 2009 when the fed targeted equity values in order to improve consumer net worth, household net worth and promote consumer spending. that's a possible explanation, and the third is the obvious, which is that markets overvalued and will correct i'm not start enough to know what it is, but i have to say the argument that the market is ahead of itself keeps a logical one to me, including that our

investors s investors and surveys show bearishness and a lot of money is coming out of equities right now. >> it sounds like you think there will be a reckoning once household balance sheets begin to crack because of the scarring of unemployment and the like >> there are two cliffs, so to speak, which are straight ahead. one is the expiration of the payroll protection program loans. it's june 30th and the other is the expiration of the extra premium in unemployment insurance and that expires in july. and so you ask yourself, will the recovery will gone to a level where the economy can take the expirations in stride, or will the programs be extended? i don't think the recovery will

have gone to the point where it will absorb those easily if they're not extended, and it's hard to tell, i must say i think that's a real problem. but there are strange things occurring that you hardly ever see in the real economy. one of them is that incomes are actually up because of the unemployment insurance making up for all lost earnings among those who are qualified for it that's a very big number we saw continuing claims this morning i think at 24 million. the other is that household net worth is up because consumers can't spend because of the lockdown that's the opposite of what we saw in 2008, 2009. now, that may not continue but it's odd to see that, and that's a cross current versus the cliffs, the expiring cliffs. >> roger, just want to throw another head wind at you, because you guided us along on

china, and u.s. versus china the president really taking it up a notch some scathing tweets where he accused china of a massive disinformation campaign on the coronavirus. to me, that was as close to pointing the blame at president xi where does this go and what head wind does it represent economically >> i think this is going south, meaning the u.s./china relationship which already has deteriorated a lot is going to deteriorate further. at least for the next five and a half months before election day. because the president needs some enemies, if you look at the latest polls, he's not doing very well, and china is enemy number two behind vice president biden. he's going to get, i think, increasingly hard on china if you look at the commerce department ruling of the past

three weeks and look at the interesting announcements, for example, from intel and gsmc, you see there's a rethinking of national security going on in terms of what we need for domestic production. i happen to think it's a bipartisan issue i think democrats generally agree. and i think the so-called cold war in technology and otherwise between the u.s. and china is deepening and that's to some extent unfortunate, but that's the way it's going >> roger, it's david >> hey, david. >> i would assume your own caution is not just based on your view but perhaps also born from some of the conversations you have from senior management at many of the companies you advise what are you hearing from them where is the focus right now, the ceos that you regularly speak to or seek your advice are they still focussed on liquidity? and on just sort of living to

fight another day or are they getting more optimistic? >> well, david, there are broadly speaking, two types of companies out there. there's one group that is concerned about liquidity, credit ratings, access to borrowing, and balance sheet issues and that group has been very active over the past two or three months in shoring up liquidity as you can see from the amazing volume of financings that has occurred in recent weeks. it's remarkable. both on the straight debt side and on the equity and equity link side. amazing volumes. and the other group of companies is those that are financially strong and/or whose businesses remain strong. the apples of the world, and there are quite a few in that category not as many as the first category, who view this in many respects as an opportunity either to gain market share or buy some assets they've always wanted to buy but are otherwise

on offense i don't think the equity market is in sync with what ceos are seeing in the businesses and the outlook for the medium term. but the fed has been very effective in reopening markets you have to give the fed a tremendous amount of credit. we had some very dangerous days about two and a half months ago when people had trouble even financing positions in treasuries and that has allowed so many companies which were out of liquidity pressure to refinance, and to push out that pressure and so the strains from financial points of view, with the exception of some obvious sectors like airlines, have been mitigated. that's a good thing. >> finally, roger, some high profile hedge fund managers are making some sizable bets on

inflation in the coming years. when you get an explosion in money supply like the kind we talked about, does that seem like a reasonable point of view, or a reasonable strategy with which to enact a play book >> for their sake, i hope those are longer-term bets we all know short-term deflation is a greater risk and we're seeing some of that, deflation as you can tell from my view on the economic outlook, i don't see inflation as an issue. and by that i mean actually occurring rather than operated through 2021 i think we have demand problems, not inflation problems during that time. so if you're talking about 2022, 2023, 2024, those may be good bets, because unwinding this monetary expansion and unwinding the fiscal expansion, we're looking at a $5 trillion deficit

for the next federal fiscal year depending on the next fiscal bill that unwinding is going to be difficult. longer-term, that may be a good bet. medium term, i would be skeptical. >> yeah. roger, always good it's great guidance on a bunch of different topics. hope to see you soon stay safe. >> you too thank you, guys. >> sara? >> eminence capital joins us on the other side of the break. ricky sandler. we're back in two minutes with the dow at 79 points and the nasdaq in the red. - [female vo] restaurants are facing a crisis. and they're counting on your takeout and delivery orders to make it through. grubhub. together we can help save the restaurants we love.

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tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. and a team of experts - here for you 24/7. we've always believed in the power of working together. that's why, when every connection counts... you can count on us. welcome back time for our etf spotlight today a look at the first trust dow jones ticker ftn up more than 40 % over the past two months as amazon and facebook hit new record highs. another name in the group expedia rallying today despite the first revenue decline in eight years. the stock down more than 20% for the year and on that note, don't miss tomorrow morning, an interview with the newly appointed ceo tomorrow morning we'll beig bk rhtacon "squawk on the street. don't go anywhere.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." our next guest is pushing for a herd immunity approach when it comes to fighting the covid-19 virus. as states begin to reopen. he is ricky sandler, eminence capital ceo and founder. nice to have you, ricky. i want to start off on the markets before we get to the letter you recently penned i was looking back your last appearance with us on cnbc was march 16th. and you were very bullish. in fact, you were saying the

market could make new highs. we'll have pent up demand and massive fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year. lower interest rates, lower oil. you largely were right, at least, in terms of where the market went. it was 2386 the s&p closed that day. we know where we are now the nasdaq was 6904. my question is, are you now a seller given the rally that's taken place since you made the comments on march 16th >> i'm definitely less bullish on the market. and i am -- part of the reason i'm less bullish is some of the reasons that led me to send this open letter out. i think that my best case scenario which is the scenario i laid out, is potentially off the table because of how politicians

and media and the academic community and scientific community have taken ahold of this debate and, so i would say i'm not bearish. i'm still on america, but i'm less bullish than i was then i still believe that we have a chance to make new highs we have a chance to have all the optimistic things i said play out. but we as a country have to begin to make the right decisions, and so i took to my network and my peers and decided to get people to start to see the issues a little more clearly. >> yeah. well, i mean, you've explained in part why you chose to do it, but i know you as a rigorous investor i listen to your advice, or at least i want to hear your arguments when it comes to why you buy or sell a particular stock, but you're not a public health expert. you're not an immunologist, i

don't know that you know more about infection rates or herd immunity or anything like that why would you write it and why would you expect people would care what you had to say >> yeah. look, i don't know why people would care what i have to say to be candid, but i did want to get people to think. and i wanted to zoom the debate out a little bit, and i wanted to get a different discussion than the one we've been having, because the one we were having was not right. and i would say, david, you're 100% right i'm not an ep deem yolgs, a doctor or scientist. i'm a trained research analyst and now i manage a team of research analysts. we pore over data, talk to experts, and make inference and conclusions about topics we previously didn't know anything about. i have a lot of my team working

on the virus since it's impacting the markets in the portfolio. so i started to see some things in the data which scared the daylights out of me, to be frank. >> what were the things that scared the daylights out of you? >> the first thing that set me off was that my team was telling me that the opening data, that the states that were opening, that this was a red state and blue state issue and i almost lost my mind. there is nothing political about what we are dealing with in this crisis whatsoever. and it began to become clear to me that there are a lot of people out there in the media and frankly in politics who whose sole objective is to beat trump. i don't have a dog in the election fight, but i cannot make politics get in the way of

important decisions. that's one two, i began to see media like google censoring things like herd immunity. i want to read you something, because it's quite shocking what they're saying, but google responded to something they took down with this comment we quickly remove flagged content that violates our community guidelines including content that explicitly disputes the efficacy of global or local health authority recommended guidance on social distancing that may lead others to act on that guidance. i'm sorry, david did we move to china and is the government always right and we have no right to question them? no right to hear dissenting opinion? so i'm concerned that people are confused and they're in a fog and trying to protect themselves and their family from the virus. i understand that, but they're not zooming out and looking how

do we get to the other side? and to me, the other side metaphorically speaking is how is your father going to be at your son's graduation? and so i want us to think about the questions. i wanted clarity about the debate of the questions. many politicians, many academic leaders. look at what syracuse put out yesterday. they're basically telling students, we're going to hold classes on saturdays and sundays. you're going to go home between thanksgiving and christmas, because that's when flu season starts people are making decisions for very not particularly vulnerable populations based on misinformation the reason is that nobody gets vilified for being too cautious. that's the problem here. caution sounds wonderful and i respect that, but quite frankly, caution is costing us trillions of dollars as a country.

it's costing us collateral lives. do you know that cancer screenings are running down 37% year over year >> ricky, you know, i know all -- i understand it, and you're trying -- i think you're framing one of the key debates here which is, of course, the damage that will be done to the economy and to people's lives, perhaps exceeding that that will come from the virus. you seem, though, to be questioning as well our public health experts i mean, this letter basically says you think young people should go to concerts and potentially get the virus and create herd immunity many of our public health experts would say with something as serious as this, that's not really advisable they conceivably could bring it home quickly to older members of their family who would get sick and that really the best way here is to have a vaccine. that's how we're going to get to herd immunity, not the idea of going to concerts and getting sick on purpose. >> look, the concert idea was

merely a -- i wanted an extreme example. this would have to be done with extreme caution. there are unknowns that we have today. there are unknowns in both options and all the options. there are risks and collateral damage and we need to be thinking about the issues today so while i respect the public health experts and everything they say about herd immunity or getting people to get the virus, but i would ask those public health experts what would they say to the 24-year-old girl who says i want to go to a concert because i want to go to dinner with my grandma sunday night and i don't want to do so without trepidation or without having toest every week what about her rights? the thing about what i'm talking about is the people are scared and people who are vulnerable, protect them and let everybody else go out. if you look at the data, and you look at the data whether it's

eagle county, it is clear that for people under the age of 75, the -- if i said you got co-vid in 2020, the odds are that you are five to ten times more likely to die of something else. so we all who are healthy believe like, we don't have a particularly large chance of dying this year and getting co-vid does not materially change the probabilities >> ricky, it's sara. have you looked at the swedish model? they tried something like what you're talking about, and right now they're having the highest deaths per capita in the entire world. more than the uk more than the u.s. certainly a lot more than some of their scandinavian neighbors. it doesn't look like they're anywhere close to herd immunity. >> look, i have studied sweden i'm glad you brought that up i think estimates i've seen suggest sweden would be 30%

through herd immunity. maybe unfair to compare death rates today to other places where they may be 5% through herd immunity like spain, for instance i think sweden erred in not protecting the nursing homes it was a big mistake i think if sweden had done that, we would be hailing them we would be talking about them the way we're talking about florida. people crucified in march, and look what he's done. he's done an unbelievable job. i think this is the essence of where our media is trying to sell eyeballs and square people and not really trying to present facts. >> you may be correct or there might be a second wave that makes people rethink this. it is early to judge the things that have reopened but we hope for the best and the trends continue i want to end on the markets and back to investing. when here on march 16th last,

you were bullish i think you were saying you were going to buy marriott and live nation given your reference to concerts, maybe you still own live nation. are you selling the stocks and what would you hold onto in the current environment given the fact that you don't seem to think the things you want to happen are going to happen >> so i want to be clear i'm still bullish on america my most precious assets are in america, my kids, my family, my friends, my girlfriend my portfolio is also invested in america. i'm more cautious than i was in march. we sold some of the things i talked about in the past but still on many, many things that will benefit from reopening. the markets are also a lot higher as you pointed out, david. the risk/reward of a lot of things is less than it was that's caused us to reduce our overall exposure to the market, and so we're still -- i'm still

optimist optimistic there's lots of things to buy. fortunately for your viewers, 13 fs just were filed ours was recently just filed and it's pretty accurate about the things we owned at the end of the quarter, and we haven't made massive changes to that so those are some of the things that i like. and i'm far from bearish, but i'm less bullish in part because the market is up a lot and a lot of things are up and in part because i'm concerned that despite the fact the virus and the data that i see suggests the virus has performed as i would have thought, government leaders, academic leaders and many thought leaders have been looking at things differently so we haven't been able to come out of this as quickly as we could have and we still can so i would just say a little less bullish on the outcomes for those two reasons. >> ricky, we appreciate it

we appreciate your perspective on this. it's important for people to hear >> david, i'm going to make a quick plug for www www.ichooseherdimhwww.ichooseh m www.ichooseherdimmuni www.ichooseherdimmunity.com. that's where i put my letter i'm stating my opinion, but the most important thing i'm trying to do is get americans to think about the options and choices we have the risks and uncertainties of all the options and choices and the collateral damage of each of the choices. thanks for having me on. i appreciate the opportunity to speak to your spviewers. >> you're welcome. ricky sandler. >> let's get a news update at hq >> good morning. good morning, everyone around the world now more than 5 million cases of covid-19 have been confirmed the death toll is above 328,000. the u.s., russia, and brazil

lead in both reported cases and new infections the u.s. aircraft carrier that suffered a coronavirus outbreak is now back at sea the uss theodore roosevelt left guam with a fraction of the usual crew about 1800 sailors remained on shore because 14 tested positive again for the virus after being cleared to return to the carrier. in new jersey beaches started reopening along with some nonessential businesses the governor said tough restrictions were necessary to control the pandemic and prepare the state for a safe restart >> we chose to rip the band-aid off the economy which has been extraordinarily painful for job loss, for small businesses, for many of our sectors. but the alternative was to let the virus go or in this case, open up too early in which case i think it's throwing gasoline on the fire. >> and you can go to cnbc.com to

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shares of astrazeneca rising on news it received more than $1 billion in u.s. funding to develop a coronavirus vaccine from the university of oxford. the company saying it expects the first doses to be ready by october. joining us now with some perspective, and the path forward from here, mark bertoli bertolini, the former chairman and ceo of aetna mark, nice to see you. haven't had you on in a long time >> good to see you, sara >> maybe we'll kick it off with the vaccine. what are your expectations for when we'll see a vaccine and if we can see anything resembling normal economy until then. >> well, let me start with the normal economy and we'll get to the vaccine pretty quickly i think there are three levels

of reengagement here that are going to allow consumers, americans to feel good about going back to work and even more importantly, going back into the economy. i think the latter is a harder problem to solve first, we're going to have the testing, tracking and tracing. it's really do you have the disease, how we track it, how we trace it that's the best we have, and so we're going to have all the precautions we need in the workplace and economy. but that's not going to build the kind of trusts that are going to have people be open about getting back into the economy, feeling good about going back to the workplace. the next step before a vaccine which is going to be 18 months or so away, i believe before it's at scale, is really antibody testing and antibody testing has a number of perspectives to it number one, yes or no, do you have the antibody? that is not good enough. the second part of it needs to be a level of sensitivity about

what type of antigen do you have and how high an immunity do you have, and is it the right one? and that work is now underway in a number of different places my family foundation is now f d funding the last mile of an antibody test that has 100% sensitivity and 96% sensitivity around what kind of antigen it is we're working on what level of immunity does it need to have and we're working on how to get it out semi automated. kits out to labs and ultimately into machines like the luminex where we can go worldwide with the capability the idea is if we can test people and stratify them by their level of risk. am i immune? how much immunity do i have? and if i'm not, am i at risk or am i sick? we can begin to let people go to work, let people go into the

economy and protect those that are either currently sick or have a high level of risk of getting sick that begins to open up the economy and give people the confidence i can go back to work safely and go back to work more close to normal which we'll never really be back at, and then i can go into the economy once the vaccine shows up, i think we have a much more open chance of having a better economy. people feeling good about the workplace until the next pandemic comes along and i think that's the harder issue is how do we think about appropriate pandemic planning on a global basis that allows us to understand where we can have a just in time economy, but at the same time, have a buffer economy for the things that we can't produce quickly? >> what you're describing when it comes to the antibody testing and even the tracing and being able to manage society based on

how much risk you face, it's happening but it's happening so piecemeal. what do you make of the federal government's response and the fact that it really is up to the states and the governors and in many ways the private sector and it's not clear whether any of this is happening on a wider scale right now. >> we talk about testing in the public domain, in the political arena like it's a thing. it's not it's a series of things. do you have the disease? do you have an antibody? is it the right antibody and is it at a level of immunity that neutralized the virus? nobody is explaining to the american public that process it is so highly politicized and decentralized. i'm all for crowd sourcing but this is crazy. this is the wrong way to approach this problem, because we're either going to have a second wave of this thing, or we're going to have another pandemic soon enough if we go it again this way, we

can't keep shutting down the economy and putting 30 plus million people out of work every time people get sick >> our last guest, ricky sandler was getting at the very thing you're talking about somebody seeing both sides given your work as a ceo, where do you come down? he's saying, you need to get herd immunity. everybody has to get over it, so to speak, and not be so scared because the chance of dying of this if you're below 75 years of age is very small. is there credence to that or is that a foolish approach? >> this isn't like the flu where we have a lot of herd immunity and i don't know that americans are ready to make the tradeoff you can see it in the surveys that have come out over the last few days they want to take the chance of getting sick and going through this horrible disease just to

build herd immunity. let's go back to high school algebra. the problem we have with all the data we're looking at around deaths and tests we don't have a common denominator for those of us who paid attention to algebra, you need a demon denominator. the common denom day or the, is how many people have been tested we can test the antibody and we may have herd immunity to some degree. we don't know. let's get the antibody tests right and get them approved and make sure they're appropriately efficient and effective, and then let's test the population, understand where we are, and then have the argument over herd immunity from there. >> you're pointing to something that jpmorgan put out yesterday in a report that argued that it looked at states and countries where lockdowns have been lifted and found that reinfection rates

or infection rates had not gone positive, even with an appropriate lag time the argument is we know so little about the virus, but one theory is that it has different dynamics it doesn't respond to complete lockdowns. it might be more about seasonal patterns or weather or if you wear a mask. does that sound reasonable to you? >> well, i think we need to find out. so hope or supposition is not a good strategy for dealing with something like this. let's find out we should have had all the process laid out for antibody testing. all the testing that we needed for the co-vid virus before all of this broke. and here we're playing catchup this is the problem with a just in time economy model. we can't use that in this instance we need a pandemic planning model that says based on what we think the coming pandemic is going to be, what do we need in the way of testing how quickly can we scale it?

we're learning a lot now then what do we need in the way of capacity in the hospital system, capacity in ventilators, if we need those ppe, talent, skill sets in the place and buffer the economy for that it's going to cost us more money, but it's better than shutting down the economy. if we ever thought that some of the estimates are 350 billion a month this pandemic is costing, that's more than we spent on health care. had we ever thought we were going to shut down an economy over a bug, we would have never accepted it. we'd have never accepted the human condition and the way people live and our ability to social distance or not actually matters to our economy versus just skill sets and productivity we would have never accepted it. but here we are. so let's build the model >> mark bertolini. already warning about the next pandemic we appreciate your perspective

thank you. >> thank you later today on the closing bell, don't miss our interview with atlanta federal reserve president, rafael bostic a lot to talk about including s gi of georgia reopening and what the economy is looking like so, no more tossing and turning... or trouble falling asleep. because only tempur-pedic uses proprietary tempur® material... that continuously adapts and responds to your body, to relieve pressure... so you get deep, uninterrupted sleep. all night. every night. the tempur-pedic summer of sleep starts now, with all tempur-pedic mattresses on sale, and savings up to $500 on adjustable sets. a lot goes through your mind. with fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice and tailored recommendations. that's the clarity you get with fidelity wealth management.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." top performers in the sect include bogey and raytheon adding to a strong week for industrials on pace for the best week since april now up more than 7%. that really has been fueled by the airlines with united airlines alone up more than 30%

quk t see rk. "sawonhetrt"eturns in two minutes .

2.4 million americans filing unemployment claims last week. a slight drop from previous numbers but bringing the total to over 38 million since mid-march. joining us now is u.s. labor secretary eugene scalia. mr. secretary, thank you for joining us this morning. why are these numbers still so high and so elevated going on almost three months of this crisis as states start to reopen >> yeah, sara, it is another week of elevated unemployment

claims as you say. it's a drop from where we've been and we revised downward our report for the week prior. i do think that some of the claims that we're seeing now are claims that were filed actually in prior weeks but only now in a sense hitting the books because of the volume that the states have been dealing with we still know these numbers reflect a lot of hardship for american workers and families fortunately the president and congress acted swiftly back in march to put relief programs in place and the other thing that we know is that we're reopening and i think we're now seeing a lot of people going back to work my hope is in the next few weeks we will see millions go back to work, millions going back to work at pace we've never see before either which does not means the hardship will end but we're turning a corner. >> that's sort of where i wanted to go, which is how many of these job losses do you expect

to be permanent? >> well, that's been of grave interest to me since the monthly jobs report we put out for april a couple weeks ago one of the things that report showed of people who lost their jobs, they actually 90% have said they expect to go back, that it's temporary. you look back at the great recession, that number was about 70% thought the loss was permanent. that's not a total surprise, right, because we came into this economic difficulty by completely different route than in times past, but it's really important now that we reopen promptly and safely and i think that gives us a good chance of getting a lot of those jobs back so many of those jobs are there, they're just waiting for the workers to come back and come back safely. we know we'll lose some, but i think many, many are still there. >> i mean how do you think about that at a time where we still don't have a vaccine and we

still don't have a game-changing treatment and so for those industries that rely on close contact and face to face and it's hard to social distance, what's going to happen to those jobs >> by the way, i was down in florida yesterday with the vice president. that's a state under the governor there that i think has done a very good job managing this virus and is getting along well with its reopening. it was terrific to see that, although they're facing challenges, we know, in their tourism industry which will be one of the harder ones to bring back we've been focused among other things at the labor department on providing guidance on safe work places through osha osha has been providing guidance since late january/early february how to keep people safe in the workplace so that workers, employers know the right things to do and i do think it's going to be manageable distancing in the work place where that's not possible, people will use masks and other protective gear.

businesses across the country are finding ways to get it safely done and we'll continue to protect the workers and make sure things are being done properly >> mr. secretary, deutsch bank this morning asks the question how can we be printing 2 million plus jobless claims nine weeks in their view is it's not just about the lockdowns in this country, but what they're calling a more permanent reallocation of workers away from jobs and industries that require a high degree of face-to-face interactions. aren't there some in which it will be impbl or difficult or expensive to implement distancing. >> these are important questions. i think that the majority of the job losses we're seeing, i think probably the great majority are a result of the lockdown we know there are other things going on our supply chain disruptions and they're going to be knock on effects on our economy and our

economy will change, so it is a dynamic period at the same time we're seeing job creation we've seen extraordinary hiring, for example, at some of the big box retailers and some of the online companies there will be a shift in our economy. i think we'll see people going back to many jobs, but yes, there will be some long-term changes as well and some of those will be very good for american jobs, american workers. i think we will see a restrengthening of u.s. manufacturing bringing our supply chain back home or back to friendlier territory than china and i think some of those changes will be very good for u.s. job creation. >> i mean manufacturing plants have already had to close because of people testing positive you mentioned that safety is what you're focused on with osha why haven't you put out a temporary emergency standard for

workers that are susceptible and are in industries they could be susceptible and essential workers, for instance, to getting covid-19 >> well, again, from very early on osha has been working closely with the cdc and some cases other agencies to identify for companies, for workers the kinds of things they need to be doing to keep workers safe and it's been responding to employee complaints including employee complaints that raised safety concerns and perhaps been retaliated which is a serious matter we do not believe at this time that a mandatory regulation advances safety in the workplace beyond what we can achieve through the tools that we're using and, in fact, one of the really remarkable things about dealing with covid-19 has been how fluid and dimic this situation is

seems once a week we're a different place. the guidance gives us more flexibility than a mandatory standard would do and so we -- that's another reason. we at this time don't think it's the right route to go. we're finding other ways to bring people back and keep them safe >> yeah. i know that's a fight with the a afl-cio. thank you for joining us this morning. >> thank you >> carl? >> we'll see you this afternoon on "closing bell." good morning, welcome to "squawk alley. i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and jon fortt coming to you live from separate locations. we did have a bit of a bounce at the open largely due to boeing but settled back a bit, the markets having to handle all kinds of things. the data flow, claims no good once again, but pmi and philly fed did show some sequential improvement. more china rhetoric this morning. we're looking at the structural shift in share in retail jon, it's been argued that market is getting a little tired going into a lon