tv Power Lunch CNBC May 21, 2020 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
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internet we're under rate hardware. >> a lot to think about especially if this a rally keeps going. thank you both that does it for the exchange. thanks for tuning in i'll see you over on "power lunch. thank you very much. we'll see you right here at "power lunch" right here in a minute we're serving more of that wonderful banana bread today stocks are lower but all three major averages are on pace for their biggest weekly gains in a month half all three have been up four of the past five days facebook, one of the big contributors the stocks soaring now to all time highs extending its reach further into shopping now into workplace communications we will go inside the rally. all that plus the ceo of royal caribbean. will cruise lines ever be the same what's cruising going to be like are people booking new cruises
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right now? what will it be like if you go aboard thanks markets are taking a breather after a huge bounce back from the lows let's go to bob for more >> we're down a bit today. it's still five to four advancing the declining stocks on the new york stock exchange the trend is up. i want sthto show you the s&p 5. there was some china headlines a lot of very sense tiitive this going on beijing threatening with counter measures president trump was blaming china for global coronavirus this is one of the five buckets we keep emphasizing. it's around the reopening. it's around monetary and fiscal stimulus that's a big issue
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it's around treatment in vaccine. those are the big three. this is what i mean by broadening you see the russell 200 out performing industrials out performing this is a broadening of the rally. even the banks are up a bit today. this hasn't happened in the past many times one laggard is energy. that's a little disappointing. retail, a big day. a lot of them are doing well i thought tjx mixed their earnings the sales were above expectations a will the of these other stocks having very good days overall. people say how can you say that? we're in terrible shape. this is what i see i see volatility declining i secret expanding all over the place.
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there's oceans of liquidity. all sorts of new corporate debt offerings out there. the market multiple is expanding. some people think that is worrisome but the trend for the market, unquestionably is up guys, back to you. >> bob, thanks very much now for the view from the bond market let's go out to chicago and rick >> you know, the long maturities have been envogue lately. many including myself think a good sign of the economy, improving as we get past the coronavirus will be equities firm but rates moving up not aggressively but moving up
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open the chart up to march 1st, you can see it there was 99 basis points open a chart up to january 2018. if you look at total return, ubs is getting some excitement with their research today we all kind noknow it. it's 60% your total return on interest coming out your interest rate and your price appreciation has been stellar, better than gold. here's the problem it's probably not going to be as good because we're sew close to the low part of the curve. you're not going to go under zero the point here is as good as it's been, we want rates to go higher if you're looking for two years returns in the future, be anywhere near the 60%. most likely, not going to happen tyler, back to you rick, thank you very much. despite all the volatility, the dow and s&p are still on pace for their largest weekly gains over the past six weeks. is the escalating rhetoric now between the chinese and the
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united states a threat to that recent rally dan is deputy chief investment officer. dan, i was going to start with a different question but because we mentioned china there, let's start there. how big a worry, to you, is the escalating rhetoric between the united states and china? it goes to military potential confrontations in the south china sea, it goes to who is responsible for coronavirus. it goes to tariffs and other kinds of punishments that the administration might apply to china and what china might do in return do you think >> i think it's another risk for the markets. i think it's a potentially one that blwill be a growing risk the pandemic issues alone or the issues going with the oil market alone would be enough for the markets to handle and you're adding on the geo political tensions with one of the biggest economies out there in the
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world. i think it adds a lot of risk here to market which is have had this nice run. does i want point you to any particular sectors rr investment plays where it's a military defense or away from some that might be effective >> i think it's going to intensify and i think you'll see it on both sides of the aisle. it happens to be an election campaign theme it's not going away. we always forget that when you continue the rhetoric, you up the rhetoric, there's the other side as well.
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overall an intensification will lead investors to adding to the defense names. also gold. gold is down today the dollar is up the fact of the matter is gold has many narratives. if there's problems, if there's an escalation, we haven't even tump e touched on taiwan, you'll see investigators to take a position regardless of where the dollar is because the dollar will move higher as well >> dan, one of the things you said in your note caught my eye. i know you're heartened as many of us are as the market has rebounded and it is where it is today compared to where it was in middle and late march you see this rally does not have the hallmarks of the beginning of a fresh bull market which
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suggests it's a rally within a bear market. what are the hallmarks that would tell you it's a bull market and why does this rally not have them? >> exactly i think that usually when you're at the bottom of a barrel market and the start of a new sustained bull market, there's a few things you typically see in the notes i point to four things that are kind of absent that should give investors pause in trying to pile in to the idea this is sustainable bull market here i think the first is that typically you start to see some of fundamentals improve. i think that's part of parcel for what a recovery looks like the leading indicators we got out this morning, leading, not lagging, just so you're not really sighing widespread science and fundamentals are approving. secondarily, you normally see overwhelmingly bearish sentiment out there. i think it's hard to make the argument that sentiment is
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overwhelmingly bearish whether you look at the improvement in investor positioning recently or just in first quarter. you had a record number of new account openings that's typically not when you see sentiment is getting washed out. third, usually the market gets cheap. that's part of what happens in bear market is the market gets cheap. it's hard to find a valuation metric that the market looks cheap despite the sell off we have seen. it's lend by a hand full of megacap tech stocks. >> all right dan, we have to lever it there thank thanks for your perspectives we'll have you both back soon. kelly. thanks markets attention turns to nvidia after the bell. the chip maker reporting its
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result let's go to josh with what we can preponderate >> investigators have decided that nvidia is a smart place to commit capital check out the stock. it's surged 50% so far this year that means it's the best performer in the s&p tech sec r sector now on track for its best month since january 2018 it's a big reason investors have piled into this name they want to see revenue of $1. billion. some analysts wonder about the quarters ahead will we see softening in cloud spending in the back half of the year then there's the gaming segment. some interesting puts and takes in that division this is a seasonally weaker period of the year on the other end as more people
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work, learn and play at home and that should drive laptop and gaming card sales. the company cfo said in china they had seen a surge in pc game play reporting as the smh served higher the etf has rallied 45% from its march lows back to you. >> that's definitely one to watch. incredibly rally today thanks very much tyler. shares of royal caribbean are higher today but they still have lost two-thirds of their value so far this year that chart is not prate one. coming up, we'll talk to the company ceo. he'll be with us he's always candid he'll talk about what the industry will look like in the future will people be willing to get back on packed boats what does social distancing look like on a cruise liner and can the company make money at 50% of capacity we continue our crisis play book series with a look at retail
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will the big keep getting bigger and the alsml get lost we'll explore that and more when we come back after this. hey! lily from at&t here. i'm back and while most stores are open, i'm working from home and here to help. here's a tip: get half-off the amazing iphone 11 on at&t, america's fastest network for iphones. second tip: you can put googly eyes on your stuff to keep yourself company. uh for example, that's heraldo. he's my best friend. oh, sorry nancy, i forgot you were there. get the amazing iphone 11 for half-off on at&t, america's fastest network for iphones.
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today's action contributes to that will we turn positive? the dow is closest now declines a little more significant for the s&p and nasdaq they are down about half of 1% big movers to the retail l brands is up nearly 20% this afternoon. tyler. all right. coming up, we'll talk to the streets most bullish beyond meat analyst. that is an honorific that not many people can have we'll talk about what the company needs to do in other words to keep growing beyond meat facebook continuing to expand its reach taking on slack and microsoft teams as the stock surges to all time highs we'll talk about that and more
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welcome back let's go to sue. >> good afternoon. disaster officials are revising their emergency response plans as the pandemic continues. the national hurricane center is now predicting an above average season for atlantic storms with 13 and 19 named storms you can head to cnbc for how covid-19 is making response harder the mall of america has missed payment on it ts mortgage mall of america has been closed since mid-march. it does plan to reopen on june 1st. in new jersey, a gym that
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reopened in defiance has been shutdown over health violations. the gym has been cited three times since opening earlier be week the owner says they will reopen tomorrow and will take legal action you're up to date. i'll send it back to you now, it's time for trading nation we'll take a closer look at one of the hottest stocks of the year beyond meat. shares are lower today but up more than 100% btig getting bullish initiating the company with a buy rating the the analyst behind that call joins us now peter, you mentioned the importance of urban demographics to beyond's success. why are urban dwellers so important here to the growth you forsee >> they're seeing it's really resonating with a young, female
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consumer in the urban environment. i think that's really what has been driving a lot of the sales especially at the restaurants recently i think that continues i think as you see the become more ubiquitous, it will grow into more of the suburbs over time >> you mentioned restaurants what restaurants a lot of them aren't open, peter. >> well they are ore opreopenin opinion you can go through the trooif through and get your food
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they are partnering with starbucks and china. they have been testing with mcdonald's in canada there's about 34,000 locations that's only about 5% of the u.s. restaurant doors they can get into i think there's a lot more opportunity not only on the sausage and beef side but on the poultry side i think they are working to expand that as well. >> let's go back to your original point which is the idea that urban consumers are partly the drivers here, particularly urban females who may be the taste makers along the coast from boston down to miami beach or san diego what about the rest of the country where the adaptation or the uptake might not be quite so quick. does the company have to win over the center of the country in order to be really a big, big
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success and how will they do it? >> yes you're absolutely correct. that's where the success is, they are finding success right now which is in urban environments along the coast young female demographic i think that's generally speaking where a lot of these trends begin the new trends begin in the urban environment and the middle of the country is later to adopt these trends this follows a similar trend that we see consumer and i think it just takes time it takes time and it takes marketing effort keep in mind you're getting -- they're getting free marketing by being on all these menu boards across the country. it's marketing for 3, 4, $500 million of sales they are getting elevated to national scale i think that will help tremendously as they start to grow into the middle of the
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country. >> they got about three minutes of pure marketing right there. we appreciate your time today. perhaps no industry faces a bigger threat than the cruise lines. we'll talk to the ce, of royal caribbean in a moment. >> royal caribbean has san selled 621 cruises sinzins it paused in march. one of the biggest tasks at hand is getting crew members at home. thousands still remain stuck at sea and despite all of that, it's hoping to welcome passengers on board as early as this summer. joining me now in a power lunch exclusive is royal caribbean
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ceo. thank you for spending time with us today >> thank you >> let's talk about this summer. you're hoping to resume sailings coming august 1st. is that realistic when there's no covid-19 vaccine on the market and medical experts say the risk of a second wave is high >> we have said we're not sure we are coming back we won't come back until we're sure we have done everything we can to work to protect the safety of our gusts and crew we won't be back before the end of july. we're not saying we're confident we are starting on august 1. we will work with the authorities and all the experts that we have asked to help us on this to make sure we're doing everything we can to protect our guests and crew. >> there's still thousands of
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crew members stuck at sea, isolated tell us why it's taken so much time to get these crew members home >> we have wonderful crew members who really devote their lives to helping our guests. they come from 100 companies around the world companies seem to have their own travel restriction, border restrictions even for its own citizens it's very difficult to coordinate having all these people go through it we have already managed to get a large percentage home. we have taken the extra step of coordinating to bring a lot of crew members from all over the fleet to assemble them on individual ships and we're using those ships to transports them home it's a difficult thing to do it's very complicated. it's also very expensivexpensiv. these people really want to get
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home to their families >> can you make a pledge by the end of next week all of your crew gets to be home >> no. absolutely not we know we won't be able to make that schedule because there are some countries that are limiting and not allowing their crew members -- their citizens back under any circumstances. we do think we're making quite strong steps we have 10,000 that we're coordinating to go home on our ships. >> anticipation is building to understand in this new world of social distancing and this new world of masks, what the experience will be like on board. what can you paint for us right now?
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>> i think we're all learning. we have consuled with the leading experts in the world to make sure we have the best protocol, the best sanitation, the best hygiene, the best testing, et cetera to allow us to come back in a way that we're confident is doing all the things we should be to protect those people after 9/11, a lot of people said nobody will fly again. the truth today is flying today like it was pre- 9/11 but it is very much part of what we do the cruise lines over time have shown their ability to adjust to a new world. the cruising last year wasn't anything like cruising five years ago.
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i think cruising next year will be different than it was this year >> you have some of the biggest ships in the industry. i've been on your oasis of the seas in this new world, how much do you need to reduce occupancy to allow for social distancing on board? at the same time, turning a profit and making sure you can cover the cost of operating a big ship >> my guess is and we don't know this because we have to work with the authorities and our experts and learn. as society opens up, society is finding things out my guess is that when we start, we will limit the number of people who can go onto a ship just as my neighborhood restaurants are beginning to open up. >> how much? 60%, 50% >> i wish i knew that's the kind of question that we're asking ourselves right now. by the way, we'll learn from the experience in our society. we'll learn from the restaurants. we'll learn from the barbershops. i know i need one.
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we'll learn and we will adjust much as they are doing we'll start at one point and gradually as knowledge of the disease, as the testing, as the contact tracing, as vaccines come on board, that will gradually adjust the other thing i have to say, you've been on our ships, they're very large but that makes social distancing easier because we can spread people out. there's more room per person so that makes it easier it's not the size of the ship. it's the bway you manage your product. >> i have so many questions pertaining to the people getting home and what's going to happen to buffets i have real empathy for you. i feel sorry because you had a business that was thriving and this puts you right in the center of it i wanted to answer a quick
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question do you ever have a moment where you go, why me >> no. what i do have a moment is and i say why our society? this is a terrible thing we had an amazing business model and we will begin but look around everybody is suffering by the way, you mention the crew members. these people are far from home, far from their loved ones. i'm isolating at home. i think a lot of my friends and business colleagues are. we're with our families. we're relatively free. a lot of people, our crew can't be with their family people have lost their jobs. i was very proud of the business that we built but i was proud of the people that did it
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those people are still there and will make it fantastic in not too long don't feel sorry for us. >> let me go back -- >> but do take a cruise. >> let me go back to a couple of questions that are much more cnbc-ish what percentage of capacity do you need to make money that's number one. number two, we're hearing there are new bookings for 2021. how many of those are really fresh bookings and how many are fcc or forward cruise credits, people who postponed into next year >> sure. >> it depends on the ship. the newer, larger ships have if i canned cost. we have a much lower break even point. with respect to forward
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bookings, the vast bulk are new bookings, not fcc. it's a relatively small amount that are future cruise certificates >> help us understand the status of your conversation with ports and ensure in the future if there's an infected passenger on board, you can medically evacwaeva evacuate to land >> very important point. one we're focussed on with our own experts and with our outside experts. we're so much more knowledgeable
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about covid-19 and the consequences than we were a few weeks ago. never mind a few months ago. we didn't have protocols for if this happens, this is what we do we need that in today's circumstance i have mentioned and we have been public about this we're in the fore aspects of how do we have our safe and healthy return to service. the first is screening before they get on. the second is dealing with them when they are on the ship. the third is the destinations. the fourth is the one you talked about. how do we make sure that we have an established protocol made in conjunction with the ports so that we're all set and when and if such a thing happens, we are ready to go? that is a big focus of the work that we have been doing and we will be doing and we have to have an established process in place. i'm really pleased with the work that our teams have done to focus on that, to be realistic
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about it and so, if and when that happens in future, we will have a program that takes that into accounts. you're right, that is an issue that people are concerned about. >> thank you for joining us today. we appreciate it >> thank you for having me stay safe. still ahead, we'll talk about facebook hitting all time highs once again as the company rolls out video call features as well as shopping those full details will be next. day four of our crisis play book wlooerking ing we're looking at the future of retail are the big names going to keep getting bigger power lunch is back right after this (vo) our communities need help like never before
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vrmts welcome back shares of facebook climbing again. they are continuing to expand in vein ventures like shopping today video meeting. we have highlights and what else they might be up to. >> that's right. mark zuckerberg announcing workplace videos like zoom also announcing occulus for business announcing that facebook's workplace tool now has companies paying for more than five million monthly users.
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that's two million more than back in october. slack announced 12 million monthly active users more than 20 many peel use the free facebook groups for people to connect to co-workers on the regular facebook platform. all of this speaks to the company and the growing commitment to offer tools for workplace communications as facebook itself shifts to have its employees work more from home projecting that half of facebook's work force will be permanently remote in ten years. >> thank you julia there. workplace is growth shows facebook already positioned to cater to society's post-pandemic needs. working from home, shopping from home, operating a business from home just to name a few.
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john, explain what factors went into that. >> it's largely about improving business trends across the country even during these really challenging times. the product announcement this week, shops is one of the most interesting efforts the company has in local commerce through the last few years of launching a number of products i think bringing local brick and mortar retailers into e-commerc is something a lot of platforms haven't focused on as much it's almost as more popular than your website many cases it is i think it's a great way to bring forward e-commerce for these types of company >> you think their valuation could be >> our target price is $260. >> $30 of upside from here for the near term.
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>> is facebook taking market shares from other players in this regard in. >> i think what's important about these pivots is they are increasingly trying to create barriers to enter around that small business long tail they are so good at. by offering more utilities i really like the fact from a facebook valuation point of view, i'm talking about money. i really like the fact they are integrati integrating messenger, instagram and facebook more tightly. i like the video stuff they have been announcing and i like the fact they are creating a feedback loop for enterprise meaning these small businesses with advertising they only company right now that has the pure feed back loop is amazon who built a $14 billion
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business last year from nothing in several years because they can tell an advertiser, you advertised on tuesday and the customer bought the product on wednesday. they are the only company that can do that. facebook is about to do that that's what's important about what they announced with shops they can tell them whether the advertising work and they bought a product. >> in talking about the valuation, john has 270-there are price target how much dwroo you think this i making money and continues to grow in coming years especially after a lot of the debate has been much of its future growth has been accelerated into the past couple of months and how much still remains on the table. >> right we have been wrong on the stock but an eco-system which is what facebook has is the traffic they have they've got tons right now thanks to covid. times the amount of money customers spent. every time you see them announce something, stocks are hitsing
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all tie highs because it might bring more revenue from that traffic of consumers, the more valuable is it it adds value to top line. the work from home stuff lowers employee acquisition cost and real estate cost >> john, i'll circle back to you on this p i wonder how big facebook can grow, how successful it can be before it will face push back from washington again are you concerned about that >> facebook oos efforts to do a little more good in terms of training their employees well and doing things for local businesses may help alleviate that pressure a bit. they're trying to empower bids
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that aren't well represented it maybe helps them a bit at the margin but i think that's always going to be a part of the narrative as they get bigger and bigger i guess rightly so i think they are making some changes here that help them in that regard. >> all right thank you both john and la ura talking about facebook as it hits fresh all time highs today thank you very much. one top analyst says the it's the key for picking retail winners during the economic uncertainty. he'll explain what mend means. we'll get a check on some of the stocks making big moves today. power vemors is next on "power lunch. ♪ of all the places you're looking forward to where will you go first? ♪
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welcome back let's go to today's power movers or some of them. shares of bjs are surging today. shares of hormel falling after missing on earnings but beating slightly on revenue with organic net sales growing by 6%. the food producer also withdrawing guidance citing uncertainty because of covid-19. finally, mgm lower today on a downgrade to hold from jeffrey the firm says it expects las vegas to recover more slowly than other regional markets. las vegas sands is lower despite
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an upgrades to out perform citing potential expansion and strong liquidity positioning all right. still ahead, all 50 states have been dealing with the covid-19 crisis but michigan has faced heated armed protest after shelter in place orders and now just as economy begin to reopen, flooding what this means for the swing state and how it could shift politics that's next. it's not "pretty good or nothing." it's not "acceptable or nothing." and it's definitely not "close enough or nothing." mercedes-benz suvs were engineered with only one mission in mind. to be the best. in the category, in the industry, in the world. now, get 0% apr financing up to 36 months on most models and 90-day first-payment deferral on any model. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing.
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on is the state of their local economy. ylan moi joins us with what it could mean nor the swing state of michigan. ylan mui. >> tyler, the economy was supposed to be president trump's selling point in november, but cnbc's research shows in michigan voters overwhelmingly believe their states economy is in the dumps 82% say it is not so good or even poor. what is really surprising is who is unhappy in michigan it is actually trump supporters who feel the worst. 91% have a negative view of the economy. compare that to voters who disapprove of president trump, only 73% of them are pessimistic. this always is a question, are these numbers a reflection of the disappointment in the president or do they say more about how the voters feel about their democratic governor, gretchen whitmer michigan has been the site of
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protests at the state capital. let's look at approval ratings when it comes to the response to the pandemic, trump is running 50/50. the numbers for whitmer are nearly identical, 49/51, well within the margin of error as you mentioned, tyler, this shows how divided the politics are in michigan and how who voters blame for the big mess is going to shape the results at the ballot box come november back to you. >> yes, as it so often does. ylan, thanks we have breaking news on universal theme park's plan to reopen let's get over to julia born sten what is the plan, julia? >> right now julia is presenting its plan to the orange county economic recovery tax force, suggesting they start bringing back team members on june 1st and 2nd and then once they make sure everything works, on june 3rd and 4th they will bring in some guests to stress test the system, saying they will do all sorts of things to make sure everything is safe and clean including temperature checks,
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and they will be communicating with visitors about what is expected of them in terms of cooperating with the new policies, communicating with them ahead of time as well as with signage throughout the park so they're just making this presentation now we'll see whether orange county decides to approve this plan, but this does seem to be coming up very soon back over to you. >> wow again, not much movement in the shares maybe some of that was already anticipated but we'll see if it moves forward. julia, thanks. let's talk about the retail etf, the xlt up as economies start to open. it is lower on the year. the names you should snap up during the time of uncertainty is in your crisis playbook next.
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welcome back day four of our crisis playbook. we are looking at the key battleground sector right now. that's retail. best buy this morning reporting a big revenue miss despite an initial sales boost at the start of the pandemic. this in part was from shutting down stores and it is a trend across the sector. best buy shares by the way are
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down 4%, but those stores that chose or were forced to close were hit hard while big essential chains like target and walmart tended to hold up. especially because they were selling beyond essentials. is it helping the big get bigger what does the future of retail look like. let's bring in an analyst at evercore isi greg, it is great to see you if i go to target because i need essentials like baby formula, i can also get candles and pajamas there. >> absolutely. >> but stores that would sell me just those items are not allowed to be open, so how much damage is being done to the smaller players who aren't able to stay open during the pandemic >> yes, look, i mean right now it is really a scramble of what consumers need for essentials and those have been telling well we think it goes to necessities and discretionary product and how long the virus is around and how long the recession has to be will determine the flow-through. but we think the retailers are
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getting multi-channel right. they're the ones ahead in winning customers for the long term. >> so explain it for a moment. we spoke yesterday about how ecommerce is not as profitable for retail as the kind of walk-into-the-store-and-buy-and- take-it-home model talk about how they can continue to grow profitability if fewer people are going physically to the stores. >> profitability is important, but right now keeping your associates and your customers safe is critical, because that's how you win long-term success. we are using a mend framework, standing for multi-channel ecommerce nesting and densification. we think investors need to focus not on weekly sales but on the things that differentiate the winning retailers from losers over the next five years when we think of stocks, that's what we're focusing on. >> say that again, mend, multi-channel essential nesting and densification. >> the "e" is ecommerce.
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>> e kmeecommerce. got it. >> we do a quarterly channel of consumers and they told us before covid in the future they wanted to shop more at multi-channel retailers and less at stores, but also less at storeless retailers. even retailers that are online only could be at risk in the multi-channel surge we are seeing start today that was even before covid on our last survey. we think multi channel is a key place to be and we think it will double ecommerce penetration of u.s. retail sales in five years. it took amazon prime and mobile commerce eight years to double it over the last eight years. >> wow. >> you will see an s curve driven by multi-channel. >> so what does -- greg, what does dedensification mean? give me an example of a store that depends on densification, that is therefore on the verge of real trouble if they can't
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de-densify, whatever it is >> there are a couple of ways to think about it one is run to the hills so to speak. you are seeing more rural retailers do better than suburban and suburban do better than urban part of the phase will be temporary in our view. so the key is longer term will people actually go back to the suburbs from urban when we think of that there are plenty of retailers that serve in larger stores that maybe are conveniently located to a lot of households that could be helped. so we would say de-densification, we think there's a good chance it sticks for more than a month or two we look to tractor supply. lowe's talked about yesterday how their more rural stores were doing 500 basis points better than urban ones, for example look at the stores serving more rural and suburban customers. >> that goes to the argument we were having yesterday about whether it would help or hurt rural america. greg, thanks more.
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>> and home depot is a big winner. >> home depot, i was there the other day. big lines. >> awesome. >> make sure you watch "mad money" tonight jim cramer is sitting down with brian cornell to pick up on the themes thanks for tuning in to "power lunch tod lunch" today over to "closing bell." >> welcome to lynda baquero, i'm sara eisen with wilford frost. the s&p is lower by half a percent but on track for a sizable weekly gain heading into the last hour of trade data is showing another 2.4 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week, bringing the total number filings during the pandemic to more than 38 million people. rising tensions between the u.s. and china as president trump lashes out at the, quote, incompetence of china and promises a strong response to interference in hong kong. and retail names
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