thoughts today we appreciate it exploring what's going on with retail as we reopen. that does it for the exchange today. thank you for tuning i'll join tyler mathison for "power lunch." yes you will we'll see you in a moment. i'm in the kitchen "power lunch" starts right now welcome. stocks are lower to end this week that is despite rising tensions with china putting chip stocks right in the middle of the cross hairs. top analysts will break down the names with the most risk and the least. dr. anthony fauci saying he is optimistic about mod everyonea's progress on a vaccine after what's been a wild ride for the stock this week. there you see it on the chart. up 2% today. we have a special report on the state of vaccine play but first,

over to you. >> all right tyler, thanks very much. all three of the major averages are hanging onto their gains in the month of may tension -- escalating with china. my theme is still intact that's a broadening of the rally. this is in stutter steps you get a day like today where you pull back a little bit but not numuch obviously, some of the china etfs, that's first one down today on concerns about what's going on in hong kong. look at the leadership this week russell. it's been bank stocks and energy stocks oil is on the downside that's what i mean those groups have been leadership stocks here look at these china stocks

we did get alibaba that's down concerned to what's going on hong kong what was down, transports, russell down the nasdaq, the big tech names is under performing this week. this is rotation this is broadening out of the market that trend continues if you look at individual secto sectors, banks were behaving horribly they are outperforming this week so the energy stocks even though down today health care was a market leader. it's lagging that's broadening opinion that's market rerotation going on here today.

on the upside dramatically we're expecting more back to you. >> have great long weekend. >> the corporate tax rate i would move back to 28% we had proposed at 28% i want to make sure we see that these corporations, that's not going to take them under >> what happens to stocks and corporate profits if rates go up

and biden takes a tougher stop signs on corporate america across the board maybe more regulation and some anti-trust maneuvers i could just go on and on ron about all the things you do. let's leave it there at that >> guys, with all due respect here, obviously, we're going to start talking politics and the race and so forth but discussion about rising tax rate, raising them on corporations or whatever does feel to me, a little practi premature based on where we are in this economy. >> i agree with that i think it's an important topic to start to think about. we're within six months of the election and if you do look at sochl t some of the polling, you're starting to see a rising probability you could see a democratic sweep our political analyst has pretty much as a toss up between a

democratic sweep or status quo i think it's an important topic. if you see the rates go up, it could be a negative or head wind going forward. >> that's really maizing, larry. you say on the one hand the top probability is a democratic sweep. biden wins the democrats take the senate and the house and on the other hand, trump wins, the senate is still republican and the house remains democratic ron, there's lots of things going on in the economy but raising tax rates is among the hot topics >> no. i don't think it would be advisable this early on.

yes it might be desirable to unwind some of those tax cuts that did not provide what was promised it may be advisable at some juncture in the future as we start to deal with deficit issues going forward certainly in the short run and i expect a president biden might follow the pattern of a president obama, he would have to hold off on a that until we were certain that the economy was on a sustainable growth path for some notable period. >> larry, let's talk about what the market is now. if the republicans hold the senate, most of those ideas about raising corporate tax rates would be doa over there. is this market vulnerable to a pull back, in your view or is it on firm footing?

>> i think over the course of the summer you'll see a pull back of 5 to 7%. if you look back over the last ten years that's what we have seen during the summer there's some catalysts out there. there's some political concerns, some tensions with china we talked a bit earlier about the therapeutic. longer term, i still think this equity market is on solid footing especially if the economy recovers starting in the fourth quarter >> larry says maybe the economy starts to recover but there's recover and then there's recovery it can start to move up. the needle may move and it may move dramatically. it seems to me, to this humble observer that the idea that we'll be back to the kind of growth rate and employment

levels and income levels across the economy is pretty farfetched in the near term >> yeah, i think to large extent that's right the composition will dra change dramatically we saw suggesting of the 38 million people laid off so far, as many as 40 to 42% of them may be been laid off permanently as we watch the economy go through changes that kelly was talking about and you see winners in the real sector do better, winners do worse if that 40% number is right of the 38 million people who have lost their jobs in the last nine weeks don't recover them, you're

talking about an unploemployment rate in the double digits. you have the disparity between the market and the economy i suspect that will go on for some time. >> all right we got to leave it there we wish you both a pleasant, long weekend kelly. joe biden also with some tough words for amazon joining squawk box this morning. listen >> i think amazon should start paying they taxes. i don't think any company, i don't care how big they are. they should be -- shouldn't be in a brogs they make billions and dollars. >> what is that background are are you? >> i'm in my basement. >> that looks fantastic.

i thought you were on like -- 30 rock isn't open. any way. >> we did a little upgrading we did a little upgrading the past two weeks >> looks great this biden interview making so many headlines this morning. amazon probably one of the major ones what do you think about it >> well, look, the question that i posed to him was given elizabeth warren's views about breaking amazon up, would you break up amazon? he didn't answer that. he went in a different direction and went after the tax issue which is something he's gone after before one of the things he talked about is the idea of a corporate minimum tax. even if you had tax losses which you had wanted to carry forward, there would be a certain minimum of corporate tax that you would pay. in the past year or two, amazon has paid on a federal level zero taxes using some of the losses and other credits they have been

provided all legal and of course they employ so many people, hopefully all of whom are paying taxes you can make this argument in different ways i think the larger point and you were talking about it in the last segment is he's clear lly prepared to raise corporate taxes irrespective of the crisis it's an interesting position to have because there's a balancing act to be done which is especially as you're trying to recover and get people to have more jobs. on one side, if you raise taxes, you would imagine that would make that more difficult he seems to not think that's the case at one point he seemed to question that whole idea on the other side there's a reasonable argument to be made that in an environment where the government has now bailed out and the federal reserve has bailed out, every company effectively in america, perhaps, companies should pay more ultimately in some kind of form of insurance, if you will, if that's what will be considered the question is when you do it and how you do it and that

seemed to be the debate we were having >> that with one of many you hit a lot of ground. >> we talked about pharmaceuticals and whether it should be price controls vaccines he was going to make it available to every single person in this country for free explain whether that meant there would be price controls. i asked if he thinks about the markets. >> they don't measure their public health, their physical security >> the way the markets seem to be doing and he seemed a bit more pessimistic

>> a lot of people -- >> the fact that now this is becoming a more point ed. >> all voters to any of the crossovers you're trying to get for november being tough on china is a really important part of that. >> in this particular instance, he was very tough on china i think he might have a more nuanced view of some of the other issues in terms of escalate that tension. >> there was a lot in that intervi interview, i helped people especially in the market

it was an interesting time >> unless people get the wrong idea, i listen to the show that why i had not seen the background >> it's all good the cool part is we with change what's back there. >> seasonally, you have to match the weather, the time of day >> you'll probably match the weather, time of day, maybe. we'll see. >> i want some birds thanks very much we appreciate your staying and bringing that to us. tyler. kelly, i think andrew is the only person whose basement is 70 stories above midtown manhattan. >> that's true take a look at the market. isn't that the truth f financials and energy stocks are the worst performers today despite a strong week.

tensions are rising with china and andrew talking about it. former vice president as well. are the semiconductors about to become the riskiest group because of theirics po exposureo china? we'll be right back. yes. the first word to any adventure. but when allergies and congestion strike, take allegra-d... a non-drowsy antihistamine plus a powerful decongestant. so you can always say "yes" to putting your true colors on display. say "yes" to allegra-d.

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welcome back semiconductor names are under pressure as tensions with china escalate they are up this week still led by nvidia hitting all time highs. that brings us to today's crisis playbook here is the senior analyst with crfa research. it's great to have you here. what would be in your semiconductor crisis playbook? >> thanks for having me. we kind of look at just the markets today in terms of semis. the trade issues have clearly intensified between the u.s. and china here over the last week or two with huwei as well as other things that have kind of arisen out of the semi side of thinks

we don't think it's a surprise that you're seeing this escalating relationship amid the covid landscape. areas we would or the way we would play the semiconductor market today is we remain very optimistic on the long term secular story related to the cloud. names like an nvidia is a great place. that being said, the stories there look very over extended in terms of the multiples as a result, we think from a tactical perspective near term, you want to look at more of the kind of cyclical plays that are out there that haven't run as much think about the semiconductors of the world and devices then our third kind of play would be on the g side of things great long term secular story as well as the potential for some great adoption heroes the next one to three years

those are the areas we can be looking at and focuses on. you said micron is one of the names to be a bit wary of because it has the most poexz your to huwei. why do you think in micron's case it's more risky than not in. >> when we look at the semiconductor side of thing, one great thing the companies have done over the last year or so is de-emphasize their exposure.

skywoks which is where we're telling investors, they had north of 10% of sales going to huwei a year ago now it's about 1 to 2% of their revenue. it's a great flight to safety type of name where they have no debt and a ton of cash on the balance sheet. a great flight to safety name. >> that's a great place to be right now. any company and any individual for that matter. i want to close with a final excellent on nvidia. you did raise the price target even after the monster move it had. where are with in its cycle or is it a super cycle because of where it's doing business. >> yeah, i think as far as nvidia is concerned, what we really love about this story is finally completed acquisition.

love the games play as we go through platforms. not the mention automotive remains a weak area for the company. if you're a long term investor, this will be a great third leg growth catalyst for the company looking out three to five years from now >> all right a lot of great stuff in there. thank you for talking through it we appreciate it >> thanks for having me. >> anglo with his crisis playbook with the chips. tyler. the race for vaccine continues as america continues to reopen over the memorial day weekend. big tests this weekend we'll tell you which companies are leading in the vaccine race and why. plus small caps out performing this week. up more than 7%. we'll tell you why that has some bulls kpieexcited. much more power lunch is after this quick break this is decision tech.

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#. all right, folks let's get to sue for the latest update on the coronavirus. sue. >> thank you very much good afternoon the u.s. is planning a mass ifr vaccine testing effort involving more than 100,000 volunteers that's according to sources on reuters. under the plan vaccine makers have agreed the share data and facilities to speed up development time from years to months president trump is calling on governors to reopen churches this weekend he says he will override them if they don't comply. it's unclear how he intends to do that. >> today, i'm identifying houses of worship, churches, synagogue

and mosques as essential places that provide essential services. some governors have deemed lick tor stores and abortion clinics as essential but left out churches and other houses of worship. it's not right >> you're up to date back to you. >> thank you very much let's send it over to seema for trading nation hi, seema. >> small caps finishes off a pretty big week. let's bring in your trading nation team today to discuss craig, any sign of market participation? >> what i'm seeing with this iwm chart is we're running up into some resistance around 135 and from my perspective the key thing we'll have to see with the

iwm is we'll have to start to see the financials participate they're at 20% the chart i brought in today, you can see you had a bit of a bullish consolidation. you're trying to move your way up but at the very bottom i made a quick ratio chart looking at the qre and there's some small evidence you're trying the make a double bottom down there but at this point and time, i don't think there's enough evidence. small mid cap stocks have underer formed for a while nice little catch up this week you need more evidence and more time o tto make a bigger, prods call >> what would you attribute this recent run in small caps to? >> i think it's really has to do with sector weightings when i look at the economy normalizing, the small caps their sectors are much more evenly balanced across we like the small cap space.

when you look at the economy comes out of a recession and we're going to be in a recession after the second quarter, small caps have out performed large caps in nine out of the last ten economic downturns coming out of those downturns. i think you have history on your side remember, small caps tend to be more u.s. centric. you don't have to worry about rising tensions in china, where the dollar will go and they're just a lot cheaper than large cap brethren i feel some of the large cap sector has the value wagation h gotten stretched carrying that large cap stretch upward >> i was going to say that's an interesting point to make. michael and craig, we'll leave this conversation there. thank you for joining us today for more trading nation head to our website or follow us on twitter. a lot of content there back to you. still ahead, the race for

cure how close are we to a vaccine and do we have the abilities to roll it out widely enough to be effective? plus we're going yields hunting. our panel will share which stocks can deliver the most dividend for your dollars. you can watch or listen to us on the go we'll be right back.

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the dow down about 36 points we'll see if it joins the rest of the averages in positive territory. the oil market is closing for the day. we look at oil moving lower today. >> that's right. it's a rarer down day for the near term in terms of oil prices. that's led to a doubling of oil futures over the last month or so albeit after declines. prices are being pressured today due in part china will not offer an officially yearly growth forecast for its economy as it

deals with the effects of covid-19 early this afternoon oil services company baker hues reported the weekly counts of active oil and gas rigs fell again. u.s. oil rigs dropped. it was the third straight week of record low u.s. counts. back over to you >> no response to the rebound of prices the big market bounce back we have seen over the past two months has driven hopes for a vaccine. >> these are time lines we never heard about before we are starting to hear some details of how these vaccines may get tested on a massive scale. reuters out with an interview. saying these trials starting potentially in july could enroll 100,000 to 150,000 healthy volunteers they could take place in spolts

in the united states they also said the companies that will be starting this first are ones we know about, moderna. it will be tested in a head to head study against the oxford vaccine and others are one to two months behind from johnson and johnson. merck is a name surprising because we haven't heard as much about their efforts. we did get to talk to a lot of these ceos and heads of research this week. here is what they told us about their timelines. >> vaccines have a chance to get approval we have a chance to significantly impact the direction of infection and disease and go back to a normal life >> we have a 1,000 patient phase one.

we haven't decided where but on the back of this we'll start our phase three and the phase three date will be probably in september. >> we have the blue print now applied in an accelerated way which brings a vaccine by the end of this year hopefully at the billion level next year. >> i'm always cautiously optimistic when i see a number of companies that are really quite good they have a good track record. you have the backing of the federal government and the early results look encouraging again, i don't want to jump ahead of myself but those are the kind of things that make me feel cautiously optimistic that within that timeframe that i've spoken we will have a safe and effective vaccine. >> guys, that's the fraez phras the day. kous cautiously optimistic. kelly and tyler. >> meg, one of the things you have said several times and for

point of reference here, the fastest a vaccine has ever gone through testing and gone into wide distribution is how fast? >> i believe the record was set in 1967, four years for the mumps vaccine. that was developed by merck. >> all right just as a point of reference a sign post on the road as we try to break that record and break it big time. thanks very much, meg. have a great weekend dr. anthony fauci emphasized it's critical to have multiple shots on goal for a covid-19 vaccine, but where do we stand as we go down the list of company tsa are trying for a vaccine. doctor, welcome. you have just heard from a

couple of ceos you've heard from dr. fauci, a lot of them are very hopeful we'll have some kind of vaccine in some form of distribution by the end of the year. are you? >> yes i'm also i have to say the same thing that dr. fauci said it's only 65 days. that's never occurred before trying to think that a year after a virus has been identified, we'll have a vaccine ready to deploy and ready to go into massive distribution, it's mind boggling to me. if this happens, it's great. i just have a lot of -- i have to be a little cautious and say i hope it happens but i want to be sure we do it the right way >> yeah.

let's go back to earlier in this week where moderna came out with some very preliminary results regarding its taemgtsed vaccine that showed some immune response in eight of the patients who were enrolled in this study. eight out of something like 45 says the new york times. how edge couraged are you by that the market was on monday but that wave of especially thnthusd to have receded. >> we need to understand how vaccines and medications are studied. they are given to animals. there's a study from harvard looking atprimates if all goes well you put it into a phase one trial. it's a small group of healthy

individuals that are receiving the vaccine to see if it's safe. then you take a few of them and see if it's immunogenic. if that's the case, you go to phase two. you try to determine the best dose in the sense you have less toxicity once you figure out the dose, then you take this to phase three. you give it to individuals come papered to individuals that don't get the vaccine. the classic placebo randomized study. you need thousands of individuals, probably 30,000 individuals, 15,000 getting the vaccine. 15,000 not getting them. you follow them for six months or so and you see if the vaccine produces protection. that's called the ef fi ka ficay

what we completed on monday is the first phase one. i call it going up everet. we got through count one there's a long read ahead to get to the summit. >> the moderna results were focused on safety and that efficacy and immunogenic response comes later the massive amount of money that come in collaboration with oxford, does that mean that one is the better bet compared with moderna's which has 493 million. johnson and johnson 500 million. does none tell you anything about who is farthest along in. >> it tells you that developing vaccine is very expensive and something like a company like moderna cannot do on its own you need a lot of cash and

backing. a lot of vaccine bets don't go well merck had a strong vaccine program around hiv and it no longer exists because after putting a lot of money in, they couldn't get a vaccine it's not easy to do and as dr. fauci says, we need to have several shots on goal. we need to have several candidates out there they are very different. the moderna is an mra vaccine. the j and j vaccine is an antivirus vaccine. after that, you need to look at all of them and hope to have not only a lot of shots on goal but a lot of those shots will be goals. probably you're going to need more than one vaccine in other words to tackle this pandemic. >> it sounds like it's -- i don't want to get ahead of ourselves here it's possible there could be more than one vaccine.

then comes the hurdle of getting it into wide production and wide distribution tell me about that process, how long that takes and whether you suspect there may be significant subsets of the population who say i want no part of any vaccine because i don't believe in vaccines or i'm afraid of this one >> i think you're talking about two things first thing you have to produce a vaccine. in this dose we'll need this time around is not billions but probably billions of doses we'll require. probably developing new companies, bricks and mortar to create new manufacturing facilities that could probably start right now. the manufacturing facilities but you'll still have to make the vaccine. i think this will require an effort no different than during the war in making aircraft and tanks and other things they'll have to have a major effort to produce massive doses and you'll have to deploy it and deploy it to the populations

that need it deploy it globally fl there's no point in just vaccinating the u.s. you need to get it everywhere. then you have the issue of people that don't want the vaccine. we have to do a lot of work to try to convince people it's important. hopefully what we'll get once you have a vaccine and you have contagion, i don't think you need a vaccine that has 100% efficacy if it can have 40% efficacy, i think you may have enough. you need about 60% of people in the population infected or immunized in order to get what we call herd immunity. you get 40% of people vaccinated and 20% got the disease, you'll get to herd immunity we dent need to get 100% vaccinated herd immunity will help us >> thank you very much for those explanations we really appreciate it.

hope we can count on you coming back soon. >> happy to do so. the tale of two retailers. one stock is soaring as its stores stay open the other mostly shut down you can see who we're talking about in a moment. with bond yields yielding almost nothing, we'll tell you where you can look for return these days power lunch will be right back usaa was made for right now. and right now, is a time for action. so, for a second time we're giving members a credit on their auto insurance. because it's the right thing to do. we're also giving payment relief options to eligible members so they can take care of things like groceries before they worry about their insurance

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it's time now for our power movers bj's wholesale hitting another all time high after its results

yesterday. six analysts are raising their price target on the stocks different story for fo footlocker which lost more than on weaker sales. 14,000 stores are back in business wasn't enough during the more serious parts of the shutdown shares are down 11% today. interceps is down. tyler. it's memorial day weekend. the start of the summer travel season, unofficially, but summer will look a lot different this year let's go to contessa for more. >> from the wild west to the big easy, any business that relies on tourism has gotten a big wallop they are hoping after two months after cabin fever americans are ready to get back on the saddle and take a horse back ride

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well today is supposed to be the start of the summer kags season but, coronavirus has changed many of those plans across the county are tri. now businesses large and small are hoping to see some sort of summerer fun contessa brewer joins us from the rocking horse ranch in highland, new york hi, contessa >> hi, tyler yeah, horse back riding, kayaking, swimming and most importantly, lots and lots of fresh air. the kind of vacation americans are just earning for this memorial day weekend

reservations.com has seen a steep recovery in bookings delta says it's seen an uptick in leisure bookings and expedia's ceo says driving destinations are pose poised to see the biggest boosts potential rv buyers and cabin fever is translating into cabin demand airbnb says it's the second place for most searched accommodations on airbnb normally in sixth place and in hard hit new york state sh, fishing and hunting licenses are up 10% some family owned resorts on lake george near the adirondacks report cent recovery in booki s bookings but just 70 miles from new york, rer sorts with all that to offer are still shut down. >> right now, we're issuing refunds to the tune of three quarters of a million dollars a month. our payroll is $50,000 a week. we laid off 300 individuals. 300 family members

and yet we still keep a core staff of 50 employees. so it's, it's been pretty trying times. essentially we're hemorrhaging >> the governor says that this area may reopen next week. phase one, this resort is just hoping that for july and august, they can get to 50% capacity >> what's the deal with face masks, contessa? >> well, they have to do it if there's any chance that they're not going to be social distance here and in many places, they're going to hand them out for free to guests. >> yeah. it's going to be interesting when you're outside and also wearing them i wonder how many people are staying away because they don't want to catch it how many people because they're uncomfortable and we love the horses thanks bond yields are near zero. many companies have cut or eliminated dividends where can you go to make money op your money? that's next on "power lunch.

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all tempur-pedic mattresses are on sale! welcome back the hunt for yield is harder than ever in this row interest rate environment bonds around the world are at historic lows and companies are slashing dividends janice henderson expects them to drop as much 35% this year and some s&p stocks still offer really large yields. wells fargo is yielding 8% hp, 15%. cat perpillar, 3%, but are all f these safe bets? let's go yield hunting with steve grasso welcome to you both. michael farr, i'll start with you. where is it safe to pick up good yields right now >> you know, kelly, when you see a good dividend, that can be a great thing. when you see a really big dividend, that can be a bit of a

warning. there's a reason that the people are paying a whole lot more than the u.s. treasury. u.s. treasury right now, ten-year, .7 so if you can get a couple of points, couple in dividend , we think that's good. i like the blue chips, pepsi, proctor and gamble, johnson a& johnson. close to 3% dividend out of those and i'd rather be with those balance sheets than some companies that are going to struggle in order to maintain cash flow and find way to pay those dividend holders >> and steve, michael just mentioned names that have been b relatively steady. everything is relatively speaking a lot of people are concerned not just about the dif dend going away, but also the yield is so high because the yield declined so much or may do so again in the future. >> right so i agree with all of michael's picks. i always like hearing michael speak. but when you look at these name

not the ones he's mentioned, some of them like a verizon r are seen as safety bets. so people rush into them as the market is collapsing they're looking for a safety, not necessarily a dividend the if that makes sense. telephone is down 23% for the year but it yields 7% so a lot of these names you know you could see why they're yielding so much but they're not as safe as you would think. when the market starts to recover, when the economy start to recover, the cyclical bets will run and these safety bets will be sold off >> sure. >> so you have a double edged sword and you get cut by both. a name i'm in, tse this one has been clobbered. down 50% but the company just came out and said that they're behind their 8.5% yield and last quarter was its trough quarter this is a company that can double, triple or quadruple if

the economy recovers and you're getting paid the yield while you wait >> so michael farr, make the case for me stay stay ng a more stable name that might underperform as things start to reopen >> i think if you listen to what steve said, too, i think he was talking about some of those other names that have more of a sickly l cal bent to them that have those the names that i mentioned probably are a little bit more b stab stable we continue to execute but they really haven't gotten beaten down. owning some of the other balance sheets that have gotten beaten down, names that have suffered some maybe like a fedex. maybe like a disney. where they can certainly recover as the economy recovers, they'll benefit from that and you get a dividend, too, you're probably going to get better performance. these other companies are performing and executing when you get back into a growth moed, i'd rather the company keep my money and grow it if they can grow it at 20% rath ethan returning me 2 to 3% where

i have to pay taxes on it. let them keep it and grow those moneys this is safe and i think you want to be safe. >> michael, steve, thank you both >> and kelly -- >> finding some yield. got to go. appreciate it, guys. tyler, we have to go hope you have a wonderful memorial day weepkend >> see you next week everybody, you have a great weekend and remember why we celebrate memorial day and now to the closing bell. >> thank you so much welcome to the closing bell. 59 minutes to go to close out the trading week stocks edging into the green capping off of course been a strong week of gains overall let's have a look at what's driving the action optimism over a potentia coronavirus vaccine and dr. fauci and his support for the reopening of the economy the white house supports additional fiscal stimulus and u.s. china tensions continue to simmer and