tv Fast Money CNBC May 22, 2020 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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hey, everybody a special hello to all you "mad money" fans. jim is off today you are in luck, we have a special edition of "fast money" lined up for you we're calling it the fast five counting down on the five hottest stories that impacted your money this week tim seymour, dan nathan and brian kelly is back with us. right to it and we begin the countdown with the race to re-open. all 50 states now back to business in some form or fashion. this even as u.s. deaths continue to ride on wall street stocks pushed higher as the nation opened back up while initially many were quick to condemn those stay-at-homemans there seems to
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have been a major swing. check out what lloyd blankfein tweeted. hospitals are not overwhelmed. most will be exposed anyway since we can't sequester until there is a vax is a public health benefit from broad lockdowns worth such extreme damage to livelihoods and what is more important, the potential human lives lost which are, of course, very important or the toll on the economy and possibly irreparable damage to the economy. tim seymour? >> well, look, now, if you think about where lloyd was on april 24th, i follow him on twitter, by the way i doesn't tweet that often and when he does, he's got something to say and a month ago he was saying i'm not so sure it's wise for states to be opening but that's why we have a federal system where states can do what they do and was somewhat critical of georgia. here he is coming in and talking about a more populous line
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there's politics attached to this i think there's economics attached and fascinating it's what's happening and do think lloyd blankfein jumping in when some might have expected him to be one of the folks we h weighing on a more conservative tone to lay low and let the virus be the number one concern, he's saying, the economy might be the number one concern right now and lloyd is someone we all listen to. >> the point you made earlier on our call to get ready for the show was interesting and that is, lloyd is a registered democrat that is a known fact and so for him to come down and break down sort of the political divide, unfortunately, the issue of re-opening the economy became a political one and so he sort of breaks down those barriers at this point, dan nathan, and maybe we'll have a much more robust discussion about the cost to the economy, the cost to
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live. lively45 live livelyhoods and all these things we need to weigh who is going to get sick >> the political one is a curious one. i look at this view, this tweet from blankfein it's kind of bandwagonish. i don't think he's saying anything that most people don't already feel and so to kind of make it a political thing is kind of goofy. new york is one of the hardest hit and it's a blue state. california also a blue state took some pretty significant measures even earlier than new york state and represent 25% of the u.s.' gdp. i think it's a goofy political argument everybody wants to get back to business everybody wants to get to normal the quarantine and shelter in place was to avoid a health crisis bigger than what we would face as far as the deaths from the virus and we have successfully done that i think
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everybody is in agreement. we need to get out of our hopes and back to work and be safe bit. i think there is a sense of irony, though, that the people who are waving the flag the hardest to get back to it are the very ones who will not listen to the scientists and will not wear masks and do social distancing. so, you know, we'll find ourselves in a very weird situation for the balance of this year until we get more therapies, you know, and really progress on a vaccine so i think investors who are thinking about this through the stock market lens should be fully prepared for flare-ups and potential further lockdowns and that is the real worry i will say as far as risk assets are concerned for the second half of 2020. >> i guess i bring up the political aspect only because if it does seem that everybody is sort of getting behind this message at this point. it does seem that way that that's sort of the prevailing sentiment that perhaps what the stock market is riding on, b.k., is not justhope, i mean. it's sort of like we are here and we have made it to the other
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side and isn't that a reason for the stock market to be higher? >> yeah, certainly i think that's one reason why as people have kind of looked through the valley as the cliche goes and said, hey, we're on the other side of this the country has re-opened, by the way. it has re-opened the whole country did not even shut down all that much. i don't think we're going to have a lockdown ever again this this country based on people i'm talking to, what i see, i don't think you lock this country down again. i think we have one giant wave as we go for herd immunity is really the choice we've made whether it's political or not, that's the choice that we've made so investors have to be prepared for that and if the investors are saying, hey, listen, as long as these companies can hold out until we get back to some kind of normalization, then, all right, then i'll hold on to these stocks but if you don't think that that's going to happen, if you don't think the liquidity will
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be there then have you a problem with the stock market. remember, i am sympathetic -- yep. >> no, i was going to say, you know, you mentioned herd immunity and the notion of a giant wave the interview with ricky sandler on "squawk on the street." he wrote this open letter and at one point maybe we should all try to accomplish herd immunity. he could see a world in which there are concerts where young people go and catch the virus and develop herd immunity. does this pave the way for investors to accept, you know what, i mean, if this is it the outcome we're going to go for and we're going to brace for this wave and so therefore when it comes to the coronavirus and the pandemic being an impact on a trade, it's much easier to sort of die jest if that's the base case scenario you're factoring in >> i think we've digested a lot of this scenario already and when you think about that, you know, we've gone luann
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earnings season largely completed. in some cases florida cap tech land stabilization, those types of words were used so investors and the market are looking at three things, they're not looking at 2020. they're looking at the end of 2021 and that's how we're all doing our earnings multiples at this point and fair, fair enough, that's it. 2020 is a mulligan central bank mania so the fed is out there, powell is basically continuing to talk about his bazooka much like paulsen did and a case where we've had this enormous fiscal and monetary response, monetary outweighed fiscal. fiscal decent. threats of more fiscal or maybe more and finally a case where what's going on in the economy and what we've seen in china is that you get a pretty quick snapback but then you start to level off and that, in fact, you are starting to see some of the pain of a lot of companies actually, you know, coming back at 70% of where you were is awful, all right so i think that back to herd
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mentality. back to what we do should we be here on the stock market probably not but we have donethis with central banks before and i think largely removing at least the credit obstacles that were in the market is part of why the market is able to now take that next step forward so i think we've -- i think the market's in herd mentality and dan referred to we'll get on with it and there will be some painful moments here in the next six to eight weeks if not six to eight months as we realize we're not coming back and our kids are probably not going back to school makes my kids happy but i bet the fall is very different than last fall. >> dan >> yeah, i just think that the difference this time to the last crisis is that the economy is fundamentally changed. to tim's point you're lucky if you're a business and you're coming back at 70% of your prior revenues the way you have to sell your products and services going forward is going to be totally different. the costs are going to be higher you're going to employ fewer
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people so i think what the market doesn't discount right here is the fact that, fine, we may not get slammed with a second wave we may not have further lockdowns but until there is a vaccine the economy is different. there are going to be way more people unemployed. that means way less discretionary spending here and so i just think there's just no focus on that whatsoever so we may spike up to 25% unemployment we are likely to settle in somewhere for the balance of 2020 and 2021. somewhere double of where we were at 60-year lows just five months ago on the unemployment you tell me that you get a "v" reversal in the economy like that you're lucky at 2021 if we are back to prior levels and the s&p 500 is trading over 20 times 12 months out p/e right now well above the 17 average over the last 5 years and 15 average over the last 10 years so at some
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point i think the market is clearly "v" reversed i don't think there's anyone on the program that didn't think that would happen at some point. it's just overshot largely because of that bazooka then the uncertainty about the economy. at some point it will seem in this summer, i suspect. >> we're just getting started on this special edition up next tackling four more big money stories from this week including wild moves in biotech and the china factor coming back into play in a big way tuheweat and much more wn rern
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now that's... simple. easy. awesome. xfinity x1 just got even better with peacock premium included at no additional cost. no strings attached. just say "peacock" into your voice remote to start watching today. some major news from moderna. >> but up by 20% the futures themselves are picking up. >> moderna, the stock of the
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day, that pharmaceutical giant that announced promising results, early results and its vaccine trials just announcing a secondary offering. >> the vaccine were to be successful, the stock would be 30% higher where it is now and it would be a better time to do a secondary so label me skeptical. >> story from stat news getting some attention this afternoon. potentially moving stocks, the headline vaccine experts say moderna didn't produce data critical to producing covid-19 vaccine. >> moderna, of course, finishing sharply lower. >> we stand by what we say we felt the company following the results that it was prudent for us to add to our resources and invest directly from our balance sheet. >> even though it's a small number of individuals and it's the first step in a multistep process, it was still very encouraging. >> and there you have it, story
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number four this week, moderna taking wall street on a wild ride this is the ultimate hope trade for the markets. for the economy. we're all hoping for a vaccine what do you make of this trade we've seen this time and time again with smaller bioteches moving closer to some form or fashion of a vaccine >> well, right, and this vaccine clearly whoever comes one the first one, it's going to be a blockbuster vaccine for them so, you know, we saw a lot of hope on this there's eight out of eight some doctors say that that seems to be pretty good. but it's eight people. so you're subject to these things, stories we saw, maybe there weren't enough people. i took stats 101 if you only have eight people in your sample size that's not really statistically robust, nonetheless i am hopeful
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i want to go outside b.k. likes to play outside so i'm looking for that but in terms of investors, this is just pure hope right now. nobody has any idea whether or not this is going to work. if it does work, can they manufacture it how long it takes to manufacture it who, is going to be the first people to stick this thing in their arm and see if they get sick, oh, yeah, by the way, we need it for a couple billion people. >> oh, and by the way, governments want it for free i mean we don't know how much money these companies will actually make if anything on any of these vaccines. when you take a look at billions of dollars in market cap, three or so in the case of astrazeneca or moderna, a 20% stock pop, tim, you have to back up and wonder, is that market cap being added? is that even going to come into play when the company releases this product in terms of making money? >> no, because and as i was reading research reports on that day on -- especially also with the secondary, they were raising
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that extra 1.3 billion to work towards the actual dosage, not only to complete the testing, and then they start talking about a billion doses at 10 bucks a pop and, wow, this could be a $10 billion revenue for the company. i mean, that kind of calculation is really irrelevant right now moderna was s&p option nationaln the same way gilead three or four weeks ago on this show was. so it was a case where i think, you know, if you look at all of the biotech news, it's news for humanity i look at the ibb which used it as your proxy, the etf, six or seven largest biotech names that make up the top 50%, that stock, that etf was trending higher for the last year. biotech stocks in an environment where people have been concerned about balance sheets and people have been concerned about earnings, you know, regeneron,
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amgen, gilead even with its issues with hiv drugs that have seen their best days, these are still cash flow generating companies and these are still great balance sheets with a fair amount of optionality. that's why i think you're buying biotech before covid-19. that's why you should be buying them now and basically moderna, gilead, abbott, you name it, astrazeneca, s&p options for the market. >> for right now, dan, tim brings in a good point the trend prior to the pandemic, prior to this whole notion of a vaccine coming about, but given that there's some froth. when you talk to michael at jefferies, he said the flows have been strong in the past few weeks and believes that most of that has been retail investors we cans, in other words. >> that's a great point. i was on that night when we had him on and, you know, when you think about it, i think bku is the term
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hopium stocks are supply and demand it was a teenager in february and then it traded as high as 85 after the news came out that they had, you know, possibly some good data on this vaccine give the people what they want they want to buy your stock, sell the stock to them they did it in a big way they put $1.2 billion on their balance sheet which basically ensures their survival no matter what happens with their success on this vaccine. let's hope that it's good data let's hope it was on the up and up, the whole process, i don't know how you can argue against that one last point i'll make, if you're looking at the options market, the expectations for movement continue to be just crazy off the charts looking a week out, the options market is implying about a 10% move in either direction looking a month out it's looking like a 25% move in either direction so my point to retail would be understand what you're buying, you know, tim just said optionality, those are very expensive options
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especially after a stock has moved 250% with very little data >> yeah, i actually think that's a great point that dan brings up you're talking about something that's going to move 25% in multiple weeks if you're out there as a retail investor and just did a story about how some people are taking their check from the government, putting it into the market, you're just ladling on top of this if you're going to be playing options, you're ladling on leverage on top of an already volatile underlying stock here, so to me, it's extremely risky it's a lottery ticket at this point in time but i do think tim makes a good point this is like a call option on the s&p 500. so to me if i'm going to do that why not just buy the s&p 500 calls with the vix down here below 30, much better way to play it. >> coming up the countdown continues with the three cs. we're talking china, corporate taxes and commutes this special edition of "fast money" is back right after this.
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welcome back to this special edition of "fast money." two down, three to go, but got to take a fast break it is memorial day weekend so i have to ask, is anybody have travel plans tim, going anywhere? >> i'm going to be wearing out a path between my house and my smoker i know you like to do a nice 13, 14-hour brisket smoked very slow, very slow on the smoker. kind that have old-fashioned choo-choo train. that's what i do and that's what memorial day is all about in my house. i wouldn't be going anywhere anyway and this year is extra focused -- i have a 16-pound brisket. i think it will take me 12 to 13 hour, take the over/under chilling bud wisers along with that, waving the flag, drinking. that's memorial day, right that's what we do. >> dan, i've seen some pictures
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of your barbecues. they look awesome. i don't know if that will happen this weekend >> you know, mel, our invite must be in the mail. you know, because tim's barbecue sounds amazing. >> it's on its way. >> mine is more sentimental. tim is just going to do the beef and the beer you know, i'm missing my parents here i haven't seen them in four months i'm going upstate. i'll see my parents, my sister i think my nephew. i think this is one thing we kind of as a species kind of hit a breaking mountain of being kind of caged up at this point, it speaks to what we were talking about earlier in the show, we're ready to go out, interact with other people but got to be safe got to wear a mask and do the hygiene and social distancing, that sort of thing and that will be the real test for this country, you know, we did a great job in the lockdown for the most part and flattened the curve and got to a point where we can kind of handle this thing as we move towards herd immunity
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but now it's important actually to reconnect with our loved ones and, mel, i'm missing you. i haven't seen you since february maybe we'll get a smoked brisket and bud widers going this sumer. >> this has been the longest period i've been away from you guys ever. i mean in -- however many year, 13 years and it really hurts i really feel it it's not the same. it's nice to see your shiny face, b.k. and love to see the dog run around in the background but not the same as being face-to-face >> yeah, it's not the same and ellie and tallulah want to be on tv they think they're superstars. it is not the same you know, like dan said as human beings we want this contact. when you think about how you're going to travel in the next let's call it six months or so, it's unlikely you get on a plane. at least it's unlikely for b.k. to get on a plane but i'll hop in a car and i'll see family or friends i haven't seen, kind of make that, you know, the
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quaran-team is the word everybody is using, get your quaran-team together people that you know have been kind of at home, haven't necessarily been exposed or low risk of exposure i think you see a lot of car travel you know, the other thing is business travel. let's talk about that. i mean, you know, i had planned in the spring, march and april, i had planned a trip or two to asia everything that i had going on there got canceled and it's unlikely i will go to asia until 2021 at the earliest it's socially acceptable now for me to do this type of thing so why wouldn't b.k. hang out and do that? he doesn't have a fancy smoker and smoke things like tim does >> b.k., you got a boat. i want to go on your boat. >> i do. it's a dinghy. >> i want to get on your boat. coming up tensions rising with china big developments breaking out in the past 24 hours. we will tackle that and the rest of this week's top stories, a special edition of "fast money" is back in two
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welcome back to this special edition of "fast money." we're counting down the five hottest stories. number three, china, tensions rising on several fronts let's get to kayla tausche for the latest >> reporter: china acknowledging it cannot control the economic toll of the coronavirus. the country this week scrapping its annual gdp growth target for the first time in nearly three decades but the chinese communist party is seeking to impose control where it can. introducing a new strict national security law in hong kong that would crack down on protests and gatherings and critics say it would likely strip the semi autonomous territory of the few freedoms the people enjoy that mainland
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chinese do not stocks in hong kong fell more than 5% as global leaders widely condemned the new law which could go into effect in late june secretary of state mike pompeo said for his part that it would be a death knell for the high degree of autonomy beijing promised for hong kong and that enacting it would cause the u.s. to re-evaluate its policies towards the territory. with tensions mounting in recent weeks the u.s. has taken a series of actions to limit business and investment with china. the labor department discouraging federal retirement funds from investing in indexes with chinese stocks. the senate this week passing a bill threatening to delist from stock exchanges. companies with chinese government ties and the commerce department just today announcing 33 chinese companies will be banned from doing business with u.s. counterparts. americans too have become increasingly wary of china in a recent morning consult poll 31% of respondents described china as ang enemy
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that's a rise of 11 percentage points just this year and, melissa, the rhetoric will only get hotter with president donald trump and vice president joe biden spending a reported $12 million on campaign ads just about china. melissa. >> all right, thank you. kayla tausche in washington. it's been sort of a drip, drip, drip of increasing tensions, tim. it seems like the market at a return has been sort of inured to it at this point. how much of a mistake is that in your view or should we look past this >> i think we cannot be inured if you think about what the head winds were on the trade front, this is effectively doing that and maybe and then some. the nationalization and security measures against hong kong are very significant and, remember, the hong kong protests and remember that was almost independent of trade war and what that meant and the concern around hong kong were important. you know, the fact that china scrap the their gdp forecast is kind of like the cfo in today's earnings results of any company.
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you know, first of all, i think that's good news i don't think it's bad news but between what's truly going on on the trade rancor and that is being ratcheted up obviously when congress is teeing up legislation against chinese companies listing here, you're seeing folks like the nasdaq being concerned and enacting more stringent rules, you're starting to see what gives way and alibaba had numbers out also and those were fine, but finally gave way and if you look at the eem which is 12 ooh 12% or 13% between alibaba, then cent and china construction bank and a lot of exposure for emergesing markets to be exposed here so this was a very difficult week i'm long alibaba i think the fundamentals there are very, very solid and if i look at megacap tech companies and secular trends going on their online spemdz something up 80% year over year i love that but hate this news and i think it's going to get
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sloppy >> you know, it's just interesting, tim you mention alibaba and have this benefit over the last ten years of this emerging middle class of the chinese with all of a sudden this disposable income to spendand obviously that's becoming far more nationalistic. i think them pulling their gdp targets and they're really slow to put in some stimulus for their economy tells you that things might not be going nearly as rosey in china as we think and president xi is in a tough spot what i take that back to is that he cannot look weak in front of donald trump who might not be president come january 21st, 2021 and i think there's a dramatic potential for this thing to escalate over the balance of 2020 because just like trump can't give in in in an election year president xi has a lot of president and the hong kong news this week is the most important thing going on
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because we kept our mouths pretty silent when there were hundreds of thousands of people protesting in the streets last summer because we were trying to get a trade deal done to turn that thing upside down now and be very hawkish about it, i don't know, it looks political so i would expect this china thing to stick around and it's not going to abate before the election and i think that will be a head wind to growth globally >> yeah, you know what, it is a headwind and you know what's interesting, i'm actually really digging this kind of long form "fast money. we get to talk about a lot of different things so b.k. will take a second here and he's going to talk about what we're witnessing is what people call a trap it describes what happens when you have a rising power challenging the former power and that's what is going on so you can look back in history and see this happened with great britain and the u.s. it's happened many multiple times throughout history unfortunately t. doesn't really end that well and that's why i
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think this is probably one of the more concerning things that are going on out there i mean best case scenario end up in some sort of trade war and/or deglobalization which i think is happening anyway worst case scenario you end up in kinetic conflict which is not great either i don't want to be in either of those so i do think you have to keep your eye on this. i do think you have to keep your eye not just on hong kong but remember thigh want as well. china changed a wording in how they're going to kind of reintegrate taiwan from a peaceful reintegration to simply just an integration. and that's very big when it comes to kind of signaling on the geopolitical landscape so i think you watch this space to me it is probably one of the bigger threats to markets in general. >> all right let's bring in a former deputy director of the national economic council for more on this emerging cleat coming from china.
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clet, as you inpterpret what's going on, national security laws in hong kong, how do you interpret these actions and what do you think xi jinping -- is seems like he's on his back foot now. >> i think that's right and agree with a lot of the previous commentators in that this is a worrying escalation and do think it's something the markets need to be paying more attention to than they are. and i mean the stuff that's happened in the last couple weeks is mind-boggling you know, you have china being increasingly assertive, very provocative moves this week on hong kong. i think that the language change on taiwan is significant they've got, you know, what they call their wolf warriors on twitter. you know, out there attacking the u.s. add bhgs, attacking the u.s. president which is a very big change in tone for them.
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so i'm very worried about that you look what's happening in the u.s. and all the action that is we've taken. you know, whether it's the export controls or the changes in our investment programs, the possibility of delisting of stocks, now, i want to be clear, i think some of what we're doing is very justified. i mean china is an international outlier in terms of not providing our regulators with access to audits so that we can assess financial viability and we need to do something there. but what worries me is just the frequency of the actions on both sides and the language that accompanies it language where we're essentially calling each other the enemy and so i mean i see this major escalation i don't know what -- one of the others mentioned this trap you do seem some of that going on and the way to get out of that is for the international community to step up if china sees this as the u.s. being threatened and trying to keep it down, that elicits one kind of response but if china
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sees it's an international outlier then maybe we have hope to get off of some of the worst outcomes here so we really need to see others step up on all of these issues >> i mean that would be ideal but we have seen this time and time again in terms of tensions between the u.s. and china it's always been -- it's been bilateral and that's the way the two sides or the way the u.s. wants it if that's the case, cl et, what do you think? if it's a tit for tat and china retaliates what, is the retaliation? what is the most likely method of retaliation right now >> well, it depends on what the issue is i mean, what china always likes to do is act reciprocally. they like to try to maintain the moral high ground by saying, oh, the u.s. did this and therefore we're going to do something in the same sector, you know when, we raise tariffs, they raise tariffs. when we do things that relate to investments they'll do things that relate to investments so i think, you know, it depends on the issue but i think in many ways what you see in hong kong
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and taiwan already is a response you know, they see this dynamic shifting in the u.s. and they are therefore becoming increasingly assertive and throwing their weight around, trying to in the international stage. >> clete, great to speak with you. thank you. > my pleasure. >> clete will probleems. this is another form of a an iteration of a trade war people assumed supply chains would be disrupted and companies would be forced to move out of china. how does this ramp intentions escalate that or accelerate that >> well, think about it, mel china was a great interest just look at alibaba since it listed here, tremendous ownership here but i think it reinforces the megacap names that are not in china, the u.s.
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names that are listed here look at facebook making new highs, you know, this week, amazon, again, not in china, you know, the apple is the real issue here, right? they have their phones and their computers made over there. there's millions of chinese through contract manufacturers that are employed to do that the supply chains exist around that they have special treatment by the chinese for this so, you know, to me apple again is always going to be the last battle fought in the trade war but, again, they don't seem to care at least investors don't right now. it's really hardware ones that i'd be most concerned with right now. >> all right coming up, we reveal our final two stories of the week. both could have an impact on american business. we'll lloullte y a about it when we come back some companies still have hr stuck between employees and their data.
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welcome back we're continuing our countdown to the five biggest stories this week our number two story, joe scarborough -- joe biden targeting amazon this morning. >> i think amazon should start paying their taxes okay i don't think any company -- i don't give a damn how big they are, the lord almighty should absolutely be in a position where they pay no tax and make billions and billions of dollars. >> in that same interview he is pushing to raise corporate taxes. >> the corporate tax rate, i'd move back to what i had proposed at 28% but we had proposed a 28% -- because i want to make sure that we see that these corporations, that's not going to take them under. >> should companies be worried
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that the tax break they got is going to be taken away tim? >> i think, you know, politically it's expedient to talk about attacking fat cat corporates that pay a low effective tax rate i think targeting blanket higher corporate tax rates project isn't terribly popular i think targeting, you know, specific companies is easier to me this is not political analysis show. but to garner the widest swath of votes which means that you're actually, yes, you're throwing a bone to the -- kind of the mass population and talked about this $400,000 or less you won't see higher taxes, you know, that's an appeal to the masses. but i think, you know, the corporate tax cut that went through under the trump administration was something i thought was reasonably popular how effective it was is the big issue. so going after some of these companies i think will continue
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to be a trend and i think that's probably where you're going to continue to see pressure on a handful of those low effective tax companies. i think politically the way to garner the most support is to not challenge lower corporate taxes in america >> does this debate over corporate taxes change or get influenced by the pandemic, brian kelly? i'm thinking about main street backlash, main street wanting to be bailed out and see companies paying low taxes why aren't you paying more taxes so we can have other programs to help us get out of this pandemic >> there's no question at all main street is saying where is my bailout there's no question at all i don't think we get through this crisis without there being some kind of main street bailout. it's not going to be like 2007/2008 where the people closest to the spigot, those who had assets, big equity holdings were asset manager organization banks, they're the ones that got rich and main street's living
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standards didn't go higher that will flip this time, i think but i think it will be really difficult to raise taxes. it's great that talk about in a campaign it's really difficult to do. so where does that leave us? that leaves us with some sort of monetary financing people will call it modern monetary theory. you basically going to issue a ton of debt, fed will buy it we pay for everything and that's how we get out of this crisis. i'm not suggesting that that's the right way to do it i think that's the path we're on >> dan >> yeah, i think amazon is a pretty easy target this. is a company that is supposed to do $340 billion in sales this year, have about $10 billion in net income and they have not been paying federal taxes over the last few years because of some tax loss carried forward and we are printing trillions of dollars to bail out our
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citizens but some point somebody has got to pay for it and ultimately i think you will see higher corporate taxes going forward and companies like amazon should be obligated to actually pay something, i think that's what the vice president said, you know, enough with the trickery and let's do our fair share. i think it's interesting that last year we had this huge debate about billions of dollars of tax credits for amazon going forward to come to any number of different domiciles here in the u.s. i just think that, you know, we get painted -- if you're bearish on stocks or the stock market, not a patriot, you're un-american, you're hearing that stuff right now. isn't it un-american not to pay your fair share when your market cap is $1.2 trillion and you're the richest man on the planet? to me i think there's other ways to do your part and just paying taxes even if it's at 21% which is what the rest of corporate america is doing at its max on a
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federal basis makes some sense to me. >> i think it's interesting amazon can be the target but in this time of pandemic, it is one of the few companies in america that is hiring thousands of people and also delivering groceries even keeping us entertained while we're sheltered at home so i mean it's aan interesting time. >> let me jump in. let me jump in. >> sure. >> that's a great point except for the fact that they're one of a handful of retailers that were allowed to be open and, you know, facebook issued this small business survey this week where they surveyed 86,000 small businesses, the numbers were staggering, about how few of them are going to re-open. i think maybe 30% of them will not re-open. 50% of them will not hire back the same workers so all of that, not all of that, you can't pin that on amazon but amazon in fact has a lot to do with that amazon just like walmart before it is killing, you know, mom and pop kind of businesses, so to me at the end of the day, you know, i don't know how you paint it
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with such a great brush like that >> well, i just, you know, i think if you look at walmart and amazon, they have been destroying the competition through price and, you know, they can be loss leaders and we've seen that walmart puts effectively -- is putting the crimp on every other retailer and taking major losses because they are dominating on price amazon has spent years investing in logistics and erp because they saw this day coming and they're turning the screws now is it right to punish them for being that far ahead of everybody and having that type of infrastructure? i think it was important they were here. >> all right coming up, the moment you've been waiting for our top story of the week, the big trend coming out of the west coast that could have major ripple effects across the entire u.s. workforce west wh 'll be right back. (soft music)
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low sugar. so good. high protein. low sugar. mmm, birthday cake. and try pure protein shakes, with 24 vitamins and minerals. welcome back now it is the moment you have been waiting for our number one story this week, the work from home boom. twitter, facebook all announcing plans to let their workers work from home permanently. i sat down with governor gavin newsom here's what he told me >> no, i think that was a trend line that will become a headline i think we've accelerated change change that was already under way. i think some are promoting
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radical change i believe we're just accelerating change that was under way. >> so that implies lots of ripple effects in terms of commercial real estate, in terms of residential real estate, tim seymour, in terms what have we buy and that goes to how i teased in tv parlance this segment. >> yes, you did. >> this had to do with yoga pants because you work from home and not putting on real pants. not putting on a dress none of that we don't need that you may not even need pants. >> i don't need no pants i don't need no shoes. i'm barefoot right now and i won't let you pan down i'm in charge of panning down so you won't see it guy adami has a problem with feet so he wouldn't want to see it either but i'm not wearing shoes right now. i am wearing pants and ultimately i do believe some of these trends were in place i also believe that it was socially required to give this type of a mandate. look, as someone that's been an employer, not anywhere near that size, i kind of like my people
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in the office. i think ultimately there are cost savings and i think there will be efficiencies borne out of this and less people will go back to work but idon't think this is the new corporate america and do think there are major impacts for people like starbucks and fast food and folks that are serving a commuter audience and obviously uber and lyft. for the next year and year and a half you will see a lot of working from home but don't think this is the new normal i think it's part of a progression of where technology has allowed us to work but the office is the office. >> you know, tim, you just mentioned guy. he is a fabulous market prognosticator but i got to tell you he is also a great dad. he is at home celebrating lilly adami's birthday happy birthday guy, we miss you >> lilly >> on this work from home thing,
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it's interesting obviously accelerated trends technology has been a big part of that but corporate culture is something that i think is very -- it is a very american thing. we've one of the most innovative countries when it comes to technology and a lot has to do with creating ecosystems and network effects and i just don't see that changing much so when you think about the two industries that i know best, wall street and even silicon valley i don't really think they were meant to be decentralized i think they're flexing right now because they have the tech to do it but i think when we get back to a sense of normal i think a lot of us will be back in those places and i'll just make one other point wework has gone down in valuation. if we do have a decentralized workforce going forward wework will go back up to a $47 billion valuation at some point in the next five to ten years >> shaking your head, b.k. >> couldn't disagree more with what dan said. couldn't disagree more i mean first of all i rented --
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>> about guy >> no, not about guy and parly not about lilly. happy birthday to lilly. but in terms of the flex which i love that millennial term used and very hip, but i was in wework the other day everybody was moving out nobody wants to be in that dense environment like that anymore. not only that, i can tell you i sent my team home in early march. i was concerned that we would lose something not being in the office i wouldn't be able to operate my business and i am shocked at how well i can operate my business in a decentralized and distributed way. that doesn't mean the office goes away but there's going to be a certain prjs of people that just do not come back and people have realized, hey, i can run my business from anywhere i don't need to be in the office it's going to have impact not just on commercial real estate but residential real estate. call any broker in upstate new
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york in hudson valley or the poconos, people are buying houses out there because they're not going back to work and they don't need to be on a train line so i think this is a major shift that doesn't mean you don't need big buildings anymore but they're not going to be as full as they used to. >> and it's great that b.k. is going to move to the poconos, b.k., enjoy it out there mountain airy lodge is heart-shaped tubs. >> champagne glass pools, do you remember that? the bubbles? >> exactly but i think, you know, we've spent no time -- we spent very little time great grammar, tim, talking about airlines on this show and if you think about where delta air lines makes their most money it's from business travel and what has been essentially the lifeblood of airlines has been the ability to move business travelers around at almost costs that seem to be indiscriminate national at points i'm worried about them and how they recover because it is a race against time right now in terms of cash burn for airlines.
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while i do think we're going back to work i don't think they'll get back to full time and as i said before these guys started my view is we're somewhere in between i think we're going back to work but it's very clear, you don't need to fly to london for that conference like you used to. very clear that zoom or other offerings have changed the way we're going to business meetings and that will change business travel forever. >> maybe people won't necessarily want to embrace work from home as much as we think. i mine facebook is saying, let us know where you're going to be based then we'll adjust your salary so there's no arbitrage if you're thinking you'll pull in a silicon valley salary and live in ohio, you know, where there is a lowercost of living that's not going to happen, sounds like. >> well, here's the other takeaway you know, divorce rates are going to skyrocket in america if we're all going to be working from home for too much longer. i'll leave you with that my marriage is doing great. >> wow. >> the rest of you guys i'm worried about. >> they seem all right i think. >> save him. save him, melissa.
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>> exactly well, thanks, guys, for play ago long that was a fun hour. that does it for this special hour of "fast money. what an hour it was, wasn't it have a great memorial day weekend, be safe our special coverage "markets in turmoil" starts right now. on dayo145 of the coronavirus crisis, a reason for optimism and a reason for fear. >> now is the time to depending on where you are and what your situation is, to begin seriously looking at reopening the economy. >> on the unofficial start of summer, the nation's top health official issues a cautious okay. >> the exciting thing for all of us, the decreasing mortality over time. >> but cases in some parts of the country still on the rise and so are
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